Week 5 NFL Handicapping Tips

Cowboys, Bills and Patriots Solid Picks for Afternoon

BUFFALO GETS ENTICING LINE

The Buffalo Bills have stunned the betting community by going undefeated and 3-1 ATS in the first quarter of NFL betting action. The steady play of Trent Edwards, who is become a force of nature in the fourth quarter, has been the reason. But I’ve been preaching balance as the real reason that the Bills have been so successful. Look for that level of expectation to continue against the Arizona Cardinals, who will be without the services of Anquan Boldin after that ugly hit against the Jets.

Buffalo has averaged a point differential of 11.5, and covering a 9-point spread against St. Louis on the road should diminish any fear their betting backers have of this team on the road. They play steady and patient football, and can drive up the score on anyone. On Sunday afternoon, they’ll need to as they visit the Arizona Cardinals. Kurt Warner and company have averaged 26.5 points per game and 290.8 yards through the air. However, the Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against the spread.

The stiff defense in Buffalo will shine as they look to eliminate the aerial attack and force the Red Birds to run the ball diligently on Sunday. With a one point line, the Bills look like a solid pick on Sunday in the OVER. Though Kurt Warner’s 472 yard performance against the Jets went unnoticed in the 56-35 loss last weekend, he should be able to move this offense in range for a couple scores. Keeping Buffalo out of their endzone, will prove to be tougher than expected.

COWBOYS GET BIGGEST SPREAD OF YEAR

The Dallas Cowboys are facing a monster 17-point handicap as they host the miserable Cincinnati Bengals this weekend. Carson Palmer still looks like he will be either limited in game action, or riding the bench. Either way, without Palmer, this team can not hope to have a chance against the most talented offense in the league. The Cowboys are only 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games, but that betting trend shouldn’t scare their betting faithful.

Tony Romo and company were torn up by a Washington team that seems to have their number. Cincinnati is barely keeping itself together, and shouldn’t be of a concern to Dallas this weekend. Expect a big game from Marion Barber and Felix Jones this weekend to make up for their horrific performance by the coaching staff last weekend. Dallas will ride a strong rushing game to the spread win as they romp the Bengals and send them packing.

SAN FRANCISCO A TIGHT UNDERDOG AGAINST NEW ENGLAND

The stunning loss to Miami two weeks ago put New England in its place. Matt Cassel looks mediocre at best, and the defense doesn’t have the speed to handle big play threats. That being said, I don’t expect O’Sullivan and Frank Gore to give this Patriots defense too many problems.

New England is still perhaps the best coached team in football. The secondary in San Francisco tries too hard to notch picks, and make mistakes. Randy Moss should toy with this team with ease. The Niners are 4-7-1 ATS in their last 13 games at home and do not deserve your investment this weekend.

New England is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games on the road and will get back on track by toppling the 49ers on the road with a spread victory in the UNDER. You can’t hold down the Patriots for long, and a loss to the 49ers would be devastating after what Ronnie Brown did to them. Don’t bet on it happening again.