College Football Cheat Sheet
Let’s examine some of the top factors and handicapping trends on teams in the USA TODAY Coaches’ Top 25 Poll on this week’s college football card in games versus lined opponents. Note: No. 6 Boise State played and won, 28-21, at Tulsa on Wednesday.
Top 25 ranking in (parenthesis). Home team in CAPS. All results are ATS – Against The Spread – unless noted otherwise…
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Thursday, October 15th
(9) Cincinnati at (21) SO FLORIDA
Bearcats: SERIES: 5-0 L5… 5-0-2 in 2nd of BB away games… 3-0-1 Thursdays… 2-17 SU away vs undefeated opp
Bulls: 0-3 off BB RG… 0-3 Thursdays… 45-11 SU home this decade, including 9-1 when they own a win percentage of greater than.750 on the season
Saturday, October 17th
Arkansas at (1) FLORIDA
Razorbacks: 4-0 after Auburn… 7-2 A w/ conf rev… scored more than 40 points in four of five games this season
Gators: SERIES: 7-0 L7… 5-1 after LSU… 2-6 as conf HF’s 24 > pts … teams after facing LSU this season are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS
(2)Texas vs (18) Oklahoma
Longhorns: 5-15 off SU conf home win 24 > pts w/Brown… 3-13-1 conf road/neutral favs 7 < pts Sooners: Stoops: 15-5 SU w/winning record vs undefeated opp / 5-0 SU and ATS as conference dog of 3 or less points (every win by double-digits)… battle of last year’s Heisman winner vs runnerup (22) So Carolina at (3) ALABAMA Gamecocks: 8-2 A off 3 straight home… *6-2 RD’s vs undefeated conf opp (Gm 4>)…Cocks 6-0 In The Stats this season… Spurrier: 5-3 SU vs. Tide
Crimson Tide: 0-4 Game Seven… 0-4 before Tennessee… *2-7 conf HF’s 15 > pts… Saban 4-7-1 home vs con opp with win percentage of .833 or greater
(4) Virginia Tech at (20) GEORGIA TECH
Hokies: 2-10 after Boston Coll… 3-7 Game Seven
Yellow Jackets: 7-1-1 w/ conf rev… Johnson: 24-12-2 as dog / 9-1 SU home w/Jackets
(5) Southern Cal at (25) NOTRE DAME
Trojans: 1-6 L7 as double-digit RF’s… outgained Irish, 449-91 in 38-3 win last year… Trojans off Cal win with Oregon State revenger up next
Fighting Irish: 11-1-1 HD off win 7 or more points… 8-1 dogs w/ rest… Irish off four spread losses in a row but are 4-1 In The Stats this season… one common opponent this season – Washington Huskies
(7) Ohio State at PURDUE
Buckeyes: 0-3 after Badgers… Buckeyes were outstatted 368-184 in last week’s home win over Wisconsin
Boilermakers: SERIES: 4-1 L5… 5-0 before Illinois… 4-1-1 H w/ rev… outstatted Buckeyes, 292-222, in 16-3 loss at the ‘Shoe last year
Colorado State at (8) TCU
Rams: 9-3 Game Seven…Fairchild: 8-4-1 dog, including 5-0-1 last six
Horned Frogs: SERIES: 4-1 L5… 7-0 H vs conf rev… 7-1 conf favs 15 > pts… BYU on deck
(11) Miami Fla at CENTRAL FLORIDA
Hurricanes: 1-6 vs Conf USA… 1-5 off BB home games… 1-3-1 off SU home win 14 > pts… outstatted Knights, 216-78 in 6-point home win last season
Knights: 3-0 HD’s > 10 pts… 4-1 vs ACC opp
(12) Iowa at WISCONSIN
Hawkeyes: SERIES: 6-1 L7 / 3-0 A
Badgers: 3-7 SU and ATS off 1st loss of season (0-4 ATS home)… Bubble Burst could be in effect here
Minnesota at (13) PENN STATE
Golden Gophers: SERIES: 4-1 L5 A… 4-0 conf dogs 13 > pts… 6-1-1 bef Ohio St
Nittany Lions: 1-4 in 2nd of BB HG… 1-4 H bef Michigan… Lions have held 5 of 6 foes to season low yards this season…
(24) Missouri at (14) OKLAHOMA STATE
Tigers: SERIES: 4-0 A… 1-4 after Nebraska… 2-5 before Texas
Cowboys: 3-0 Game Six… 6-1 HF’s vs conf rev… 4-1 after Texas A&M
(15) Kansas at COLORADO
Jayhawks: 2-5 A before Oklahoma… have allowed 1301 yards to the likes of Iowa State, So Miss and Duke last three games
Buffaloes: 7-2 as DD conf HD’s… QB change: Hawkins benched
Texas Tech at (17) NEBRASKA
Red Raiders: Series: Dog 3-1…backup QB Sheffield tossed for 490 yards 7 TD’s in last week’s 66-14 win over Kansas State
Cornhuskers: 1-5 H off DD conf road win… 1-3-1 after Missouri… 2-6 H w/ conf rev
(19) Byu at SAN DIEGO STATE
Cougars: 1-6-1 vs conf rev… 1-3 before TCU… 3-7RF’s off away
Aztecs: 6-2 in 2nd of BB HG
(23) Houston at TULANE
Cougars: own 497-yard defense against lined opp this season but have gained season high yards against every opponent in 2009
Green Wave: SERIES: 0-6… 2-8 con HD off double-digit ATS loss
Other ranked teams:
(10) LSU and (16) Oregon off this week.
Note: Marc Lawrence is a 30-year veteran handicapper. He finished No.1 in the nation (88-63 +25.7 Net Units) in MLB during the 2007 season as documented by Sports Watch in Las Vegas.
Comments are Welcome!!!
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