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Week 1 NFL Totals Betting Analysis

NFL Week 1 Totals Analysis

Week 1 in the NFL was all about stifling defense and sloppy offense as 11 of the 16 games stayed ‘under’  the total line. Offensive powers like New Orleans, Indianapolis, and San Diego combined for just 52 points which is usually what the score on its own.

Here is a look at the ‘over/under’ results for all 16 games. All lines provided by JUSTBET.com.


Thursday, Sep. 09

8:30 p.m. Minnesota at New Orleans(-5)
Over/Under Line 48
Result-UNDER (23)

It could have been a case of solid defense or sloppy play by both team’s offense, but either way this game stayed way under the total with the Saints holding on to win 14-9.

Sunday, Sep. 12

1:00 p.m. (ET) Denver at Jacksonville (-2 ½)
Over/Under Line 39 ½
Result- OVER (41)

Jacksonville QB David Garrard finally played up to his ability, completing 16-of-21 attempts for 170 yards and three TD’s and led his team to a much needed win for a beleaguered franchise that has only sold out once in their last 10 home games.

Miami (-3) at Buffalo
Over/Under Line 38.5
Result- UNDER (25)

It was not a pretty sight as these two teams combined for less than 500 yards of total offense with Miami getting the better of it in a five point 15-10 win.

Detroit at Chicago (-6)
Over/Under Line 43
Result- UNDER (33)

Detroit is snake bit once again as WR Calvin Johnsons game winning TD catch with: 25 seconds left is ruled incomplete after the ball touched the ground in the end zone before he was fully ruled down.

Indianapolis (-2 ½) at Houston
Over/Under Line 47
Result- OVER (58)

The Texans took it to the Colts not behind the arm of QB Matt Schaub, but behind the running of RB Arian Foster, who gained 231 yards on 33 carries and scored three TD’s in a dramatic upset.

Atlanta (-2.5) at Pittsburgh
Over/Under Line 38
Result- UNDER (24)

It did not matter who was behind center for the Steelers used their running game and a stingy defense to pound out a win against the punch-less Falcons.

Oakland at Tennessee (-6 ½)
Over/Under Line 40 ½
Result- OVER (51)

Tennessee QB Vince Young and RB Chris Johnson picked-up where they left off last season, while Oakland’s new look offense produced the same old results.

Cleveland at Tampa Bay (-3)
Over/Under Line 40 ½
Result- UNDER (31)

Cleveland once again implodes down the stretch as they blow a 14-3 lead to Tampa Bay to lose its 11th opening day game in the last 12 years.

Carolina at N.Y. Giants (-7)
Over/Under Line 41
Result- OVER (49)

The Giants overcame a sloppy start to pull away in the second half on three Eli Manning to Hakeem Hicks touchdowns throws to the left corner of the end zone.

Cincinnati at New England (-4 ½)
Over/Under Line 45
Result- OVER (62)

QB Tom Brady started earning his new salary right off the bat, completing 25-of-35 attempts for 258 yards and three TD’s including two to WR Wes Welker, who is returning from offseason knee surgery.

4:15 p.m. (ET)San Francisco (-3) at Seattle
Over/Under Line 37.5
Result- OVER (62)

Led by veteran QB Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle dismantled San Francisco by scoring 31 unanswered points after the 49ers took a 6-0 lead early in the second quarter.

Green Bay (-3) at Philadelphia
Over/Under Line 47.5
Result- UNDER (47)

Just one game into the season and there is already a quarterback controversy in Philadelphia as Michael Vick led the team back from a 27-10 deficit to almost pull out the win after Kevin Kolb left the game with a concussion.

Arizona (-4) at St. Louis
Over/Under Line 39 ½
Result- UNDER (30)

Rookie QB Sam Bradford completed 32-of-55 attempts for 253 yards and one touchdown, but the Cardinals ruined his debut with a 21 yard game-winning touchdown catch by Larry Fitzgerald late in the fourth quarter.

8:20 p.m. (ET) Dallas (-4) at Washington
Over/Under Line 40 ½
Result-UNDER (20)

Dallas blows a chance to win the game as a holding penalty nullified a game winning touchdown catch by Roy Williams on the last play of the game.

Monday, Sep. 13

7:00 p.m. (ET) Baltimore at N.Y. Jets (-2)
Over/Under Line 36
Result-UNDER (19)

Costly penalties on defense and an anemic offense that only gained 74 yards through the air proved to be the Jets down fall in this game.

10:15 p.m. (ET) San Diego (-5 ½) at Kansas City
Over/Under Line 45
Results-UNDER (35)

Kansas City’s 2010 draft is already pay huge dividends as rookie RB Dexter McCluster’s 94 yard punt return at the end of the first half proved to be the winning score.

Weekly record: 10-6



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About Dave Schwab

David Schwab is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog. While not cheering for his beloved Philadelphia Eagles David can be found working on his blog at www.eaglesinc.com. David wants to hear from you so please comment below.