The NBA Defense vs Defense
I have had great success in the NBA, hitting 60% of over 175 picks, and I am a non-stop research machine. I spend hour upon hour doing the dirty work, that finds a lot of winning edges, market inefficiencies, in an otherwise efficient market.The NBA is known more by its offensive stars, like Kobe, and LeBron, and many love the scoring teams, such as Golden St., and Phoenix, and Indiana this season, along with the Knicks now led by Mike D’Antoni. What most don’t pay attention to is what happens on the defensive side of the ball. I took a look at the top 10 NBA defenses in terms of points allowed, since that is the ultimate determining factor in any sport, beside golf, where the high score wins.
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What I did was looked at teams that were both in the top 10 in points allowed and how they fared to the total when playing each other? There is a margin for error here, because teams that are in the top 10 now, might not have been at the time they faced each other, but restructuring the season based on who is in the top 10 now, shows when these teams meet, the UNDER has been 49-26-1 ATS or covers 65.3% of the time. Those are some impressive numbers, but what is usally the case, the oddsmakers usually catch up and thwart the profits. The point is, if at the beginning of the NBA season you hone in on the teams that are playing defense, your likely to score big with the unders when they face each other.
I also looked at how the offenses looked under the same set of circumstances, those games that pitted a top 10 offense vs a top 10 offense in terms of points scored a game. The numbers based on the present configuration of 1-10, shows the OVER would have been 47-36 ATS or 56.6%. Not quite as good as the defensive side, but certainly profitable. I must say, that these numbers are with a margin of error because it is based on now, not the time they played, and a few could of been out of the tp 10 at the time.
One interesting footnote. The top 10 defenses feature just 1 team with a losing record on the season, Charlotte, who incedently is also 32-22 ATS on the season, while the top 10 offenses feature 3 teams with a losing record. Maybe that might back up the ole saying that Defense wins Championships! The last 6 years the NBA Championship has been won by a team that finished either 1st or 2nd in points allowed during the regular season, and in one other year a team that finished 1 or 2 was runnerup. CLEVELAND AND BOSTON own the top 2 spots right now. The top 2 offenses over the past 5 seasons has never had a team reach the NBA finals. Currently the top 2 teams are LA LAKERS and Golden St. Can the Lakers break the trend?
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