NFL Week 5 Preview & Predictions
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Make it three weeks and counting that the dogs had their day which points to an even bigger trend toward parity in the NFL than there was before. Last week nine teams getting points covered the spread with six underdogs winning their game straight-up.
For the second week in a row the road teams came out ahead against the spread with nine teams covering the points verse only five home teams winning ATS.
For the third week in a row the total bet once again slightly favored the ‘over’ as eight games scored more points than the total line and six scored less.
Here is a brief preview and pick for all 14 games in Week 5. All lines are provided by Sportsinteraction.com
Sunday, Oct. 10
1:00 P.M. N.Y. Giants at Houston (-3)
Over/Under: 44.5
New York is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games as a road underdog. Houston is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games overall. The total has gone ’over’ in the last six games the Giants were an underdog and in four of the Texans last six games overall. The Pick: New York +3 and OVER
Jacksonville (1) at Buffalo
Over/Under: 41
The road team in this matchup is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five. The total has stayed ‘under’ in 11 of the Bills last 16 games. The Pick: Buffalo +1 and UNDER
Chicago (-2.5) at Carolina
Over/Under: 35.5
Chicago will be going with Todd Collins at QB in place of the injured Jay Cutler. The Bears are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall and 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games against the Panthers. Carolina is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games. The Pick: Carolina +2.5 and UNDER.
Atlanta (-3) at Cleveland
Over/Under: 41
Atlanta is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games overall and 4-1 ATS in its last five road games. Cleveland is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games overall and 5-1 ATS in its last six home games so something has to give in this one. The total has stayed ‘under’ in eight of the Falcons games as a road favorite. The Pick: Cleveland +3 and UNDER.
Tampa Bay at Cincinnati (-6.5)
Over/Under: 38
Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog. Cincinnati is 7-19-1 ATS in its last 27 games as a home favorite. The total has stayed ‘under’ in nine of the Bengals last 10 games as a home favorite. The Pick: Tampa Bay +6.5 and UNDER
Kansas City at Indianapolis (-8)
Over/Under: 44.5
Kansas City is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games and 5-0 ATS in its last five as an underdog. Indianapolis is 2-7 ATS in its last seven games following a SU loss. The total has gone ‘over’ in seven of the Colts last nine games against the AFC. The Pick: Kansas City +8 and OVER
Denver at Baltimore (7.5)
Over/Under: 38.5
Denver is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games following a SU win. Baltimore is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games following an ATS win. The total has stayed ‘under’ in the last four games between these two teams. The Pick: Denver + 7.5 and UNDER.
St. Louis at Detroit (-3)
Over/Under: 43
St. Louis is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games following a SU win. Detroit is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 home games. The total has gone ‘over’ in four of the Lions last five games. The Pick: St Louis +3 and OVER.
Green Bay (-2.5) at Washington
Over/Under: 44
Green Bay is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games overall and 5-2 ATS in its last seven road games. Washington is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 home games. The total has gone ‘over’ in 10 of the Redskins last 14 games overall. The Pick: Green Bay -2.5 and OVER
4:05 P.M. New Orleans (-7) at Arizona
Over/Under: 45.5
New Orleans is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games on grass and 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these two teams. Rookie QB Max Hall will make his first start for Arizona in an effort to jump-start the offense. The Pick: New Orleans -7 and UNDER
Tennessee at Dallas (-6.5)
Over/Under: 43
Tennessee is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall and 3-7 in its last 10 games following a SU loss. Dallas is 5-1 ATS after a bye week. The total has stayed ‘under’ in 12 of the Cowboys last 17 games following a bye as well. The Pick: Dallas – 6 ½ and UNDER
San Diego (-6) at Oakland
Over/Under: 44.5
San Diego is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games against the Raiders on the road and 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in three of the last five games between these two teams. The Pick: San Diego -6 and OVER
8:20 P.M. Philadelphia at San Francisco (-3)
Over/Under: 38
Philadelphia is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games as a road underdog and 4-0 ATS in its last four games against the 49ers. San Francisco is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five games as a favorite. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of the last games between these two. The Pick: Philadelphia +3 and OVER
Monday, Oct. 11
8:30 P.M. Minnesota at N.Y. Jets (-4)
Over/Under: 37.5
Minnesota’s new All-Pro WR Randy Moss will be ready to go in this game. The Vikings are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games played on fieldturf. New York’s All-Pro CB Derrelle Revis will be ready to go as well. The Jets are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall. The Pick: New York -4 and OVER
Bye Week: Miami, Pittsburgh, Seattle, & New England
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David Schwab is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog. While not cheering for his beloved Philadelphia Eagles David can be found working on his blog. David wants to hear from you so please comment below.
