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NCAA Football Week 5 Top 25 Matchups

CFB Handicapping Week 5

Freddy Wills

Freddy Wills

I will make an effort to give my sports betting advice or a quick over view of the games you want to know about. The Top 25 match ups each week is where most of the eyes turn. Last week I went 4-2 on premium plays last Saturday making me 8-3 the last two Saturday’s. Unfortunately the two losses we took were our two highest plays as we are now 4-2 on the year for NCAAF POD’s! We still took a profit on the day and are back for this weekend with some of the biggest plays of the year!

This weekend there will be just three Top 25 match ups between ranked foes including our game of the week with a Miami team facing Oklahoma.


#8 Oklahoma @ #17 Miami (Oklahoma -7)
(Saturday 8:00 pm et)

I will be staying far away from this game as Oklahoma just looks too good after their terrible showing at Virginia Tech which we won on the Hokies! Oklahoma has looked solid with their new QB (for now) at the helm, but this is a different type of test. We’ll see if Oklahoma can generate the same type of pressure that the Hokies did on Miami and Harris and what Harris does this time to over come it when he is at home.


#20 BYU @ Utah State
(Saturday 12pm et)

BYU has won nine straight in their seriesUtah State and those margin of victories have come by 18.8 points since 1994. BYU will need this game for confidence after losing badly to Florida State. Utah State won their first game of the year, but it came to Southern Utah.

#22 Michigan @ Michigan State (Michigan State -2.5)
(Saturday 12pm et)

This match up opened with Michigan State +1, and many thought it was because of Tate Forcier’s impressionability to play on Saturday. As the week went on and looked more and more likely that he will play yet the line continued to go in Michigan State’s way.

#6 Virginia Tech @ Duke (Vtech -16.5)
(Saturday 12 pm et)

Virginia Tech was one of my favorite plays last weekend and they cashed easily as +3 point dog. This week they look to build off their shocking (to some) victory over Miami. They will face an ACC opponent in Duke and should have little if any trouble. Duke’s rush defense is ranked 80th, and they may be in trouble as the Hokies ran all over Miami for 272 yards last week.

#13 Iowa @ Arkansas State (Iowa -20.5)
(Saturday 12:05 pm et)

Iowa as 10 point dogs defeated Penn State on the road. We were there and on Iowa on Penn State. Iowa now takes on the non-conference schedule again when they host Arkansas State. These two have never met, but the last four road games against Top 25 teams have not gone well for Arkansas State, they were out scored 121-12.

#3 Alabama @ Kentucky (Alabama -17)
(Saturday 12:20 pm et)

After shutting down a high-flying Arkansas offense, Alabama will try to shut down Kentucky which ranks 87th in the nation. Alabama has won three straight over Kentucky last year when they won 17-14.

#10 Cincinnati @ Miami (OH) (Cincinnati -27)
(Saturday 1:00 pm et)

Cincinnati is now ranked tenth in the nation under their star QB Tony Pike. This is Cincinnati’s highest rank in school history and they have won the past three meetings by 116-40 margin.

#15 Penn State @ Illinois (Penn State -6.5)
(Saturday 3:30pm et)

Penn State and Illinois will look to rebound after disappointing losses. Penn State we already mentioned fell at home to Iowa as 10 point favorites. Penn State should be able to move the ball against an Illinois defense. Penn State is 13-3 career against Illinois and 10-2 since joining the Big Ten.

#4 LSU @ #18 Georgia (Georgia -2.5)
(Saturday 3:30pm et)

LSU looked bad when they visited Missippi State and were very fortunate to escape wtih the 30-26 victory, because Miss. State could not punch it in at the end of the game. This will be LSU’s most challenging game this year and the Tigers will look to have revenge on Georgia who beat them at home last year.

#9 Ohio State @ Indiana (Ohio State -16)
(Saturday 7:00 pm et)

Ohio State has bounced back very nicely after losing to USC in week 2 with wins over Toledo and Illinois with a combined score of 68-0. Indiana might have a hard time scoring as they have lost 14 straight games to Ohio State by an average of 22.7 points.

#21 Mississippi @ Vanderbilt (Miss -13.5)
(Saturday 7:00 pm et)

Snead had a hard time when he visited South Carolina and I was all over South Carolina in that game too! Now Ole Miss finds themselves from #4 to #21. Don’t take Vanderbilt lightly they too have a solid defense and kept things close against LSU and Miss State.

#25 Georgia Tech @ Mississippi State (Georgia Tech -4.5)
(Saturday 7:30 pm et)

Georgia Tech defeated Miss State a year ago when they ran all over them and won the game 38-7. Tech coming off an impressive win against North Carolina 24-7 got back to running the ball. Will Miss State have the answers one year later to the triple option Tech runs with Johnathan Dwyer and Nesbit? Mississippi State had every opportunity to beat LSU last weekend at home but it was 3 interceptions due to the weather and their inability to punch it in the end zone at the end of the game that cost them.

#11 TCU @ SMU (TCU -27.5)
(Saturday 8:00 pm et)

This will be TCU’s final non-conference tuneup before they break in against the Mountain West. The Horned Frongs have won 8 of 9 from the mustangs by a modest average of 7.8 points per game. This game features two QB’s at the top of some interesting statistical categories. QB of TCU Dalton is 5th in completion %, while SMU QB, Mitchell is 4th in passing yards per game, 27.5 may just be too many.

#7 USC @ #24 California (USC -7)
(Saturday 8:00 pm et)

California won’t get much help here on Saturday after last week’s embarrassing loss to Oregon on the road as favorites. Oregon crushed Cal 42-3, making this game less interesting. Nonetheless they play the game anyway and I fear Cal even though they have a lot to play for just do not match up well against USC. It’s so hard to score on USC unless you force turnovers. They are giving up 1.7 ypc on the ground this year which is Cal’s strength. If Cal has to turn to their QB to win the game that could be trouble as USC is the best in the nation at getting to the QB. I still have Cal as a slight lean as a home dog here in this situation, but it’s a no play for me.

#5 Boise State @ UC Davis (NL)
(Saturday 8:00 pm et)

Undefeated Boise State takes a break from the FBS schedule, what else is new? I’m really tired of this team that does not take any risks in its schedule getting all this attention. Just look at what Houston has done taking down Oklahoma State on the road and Texas Tech at home and now they’ll be facing an SEC opponent in Miss. State. Boise State did face Oregon at home to open the year, but let’s see what they do against some of the bigger opponents?

#12 Houston @ UTEP (Houston -16)
(Saturday 9:05 pm et)

I won’t lie I had Text Tech in last week’s free pick over Houston and it looked as good as gold late in the 4th quarter with Texas Tech 1st and goal up 28-23. Tech could not punch it in and went for the win on 4th down rather than the FG to force OT if Houston was able to score and convert the two point conversion. Obviously they had a good feeling about their defense. However, Houston drove the field and scored to win 29-28. A dangerous game for Houston as they open up C-USA play and UTEP just might be jealous enough of Houston to make this a big game. They are really mad after losing 64-7 to Texas last week so we will see how UTEP plays Houston.

#16 Oregon @ Washington State
(Saturday 9:15 pm et)

After a season-opening loss at Boise State, Oregon has bounced back with three straight wins without their suspended tail back. They crushed California last week 42-3 at home and now they will welcome a road trip to struggling Washington State team. Washington St. has lost 15 of 16 gamesranked foes.

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  1. Go big on Penn State as Jo Pa will have this ready to go after another disapppointing loss to Iowa. They do not lose two games in a row and they usually blow out their next opponent after a loss