Monday Morning Headache (09-29-2008)
By Tony George
What a weekend in College and Pro Football it was. To say it was full of head scratching moments for lack of a better term is an understatement. I am not immune to to a bad weekend every now and then, as there is nothing I have not experienced in my 17 years as a Pro Handicapper, but this past weekend was one of my worst on record. I have always prided myself as a guy who is in a business arena that is somewhat shady, but always have maintained an ethical and honest approach, by simply telling it like it is. In retrospect I have left hundreds of thousands of dollars on the table by using this approach, especially in the early years, but I always know what yesterday’s story is, and at days end that is how I can sleep at night. I also call myself out when I do poorly, and this weekend I stunk but learned a few things.
It used to be one or two, maybe three big shockers during a football season back in the good old days. Just lay the number in the Pro’s with heavy favs and cash a ticket about 70% of the time. With free agency and parity in the NFL, those days are over. With the reduction is scholarships in College Football, schools like South Florida, Fresno State, Boise State, U Conn and others have emerged and the classic monsters who dominated the Top 10 like Nebraska, Ohio State, Tennessee, Florida State, Miami, Notre Dame and Michigan have leveled off and struggle to maintain their reputation of dominance in the NCAA. It was interesting to note that 9 of the top 20 teams in college football went down this week, including #1 USC who looked unbeatable with a weeks rest heading into their Thursday game. It was also interesting to note that 6 of those 9 underdogs who won those games were unranked opponents. This is not the first weekend this season that top teams were beaten, and beaten soundly out of nowhere, many of them at home. How’s that Georgia point spread doing for those whose laid it? My best pick of the weekend was a free one on Alabama!
You would think with 17 years under my belt, things would come easier and the pressure far less with vast knowledge of the game of football as a ex-college player and pro arena league coach for 3 years. I know how to look for talent and prepare a game plan, and use that experience and knowledge transferring over to what I see on the field of play on weekends and into my selections. I have contacts that are beat sportswriters in major sports cities from having them appear on my national radio show for 8 years who tell me a few things that rarely appear in their papers that give me what I feel is an edge. I watch anywhere from 20-30 games a week in college and pro football, and re-watch numerous ones of those. I understand the Las Vegas line and how it works especially the public perception angle. This information and knowledge simply goes out the window from time to time, shocking not only me, but many in these circles I run in. The level of talent and parity anymore is increasing, and the young athlete is far superior to what it was 15 years ago, that is for sure. The line between good and bad teams is closing rapidly. As a pro capper, you always have to have your “A” game, and sometimes that is not enough
Switch gears to the NFL, and this past weekend proved that on ANY GIVEN SUNDAY, the worst can not only beat, but dominate the best, completely out of left field. The big shocker was Kansas City, whom I went against big time. Yes, I know it was a sucker bet, but I live in Kansas City and have been to all their games and know everything about them. This is a bad team with little or no offensive output despite having Larry Johnson and Tony Gonzalez. Apparently I did not know enough, but mainly had no idea Denver would simply not show up. That is the biggest impact on any pro game, football or any other. Who is ready and prepared to play and who isn’t, that is always a key question and the answer to many point spread solutions. Kansas City was, and Denver was not ready to play. Not an excuse, simply a factual statement. I noticed it in pregame warm-ups, I knew right then I was a dead man, and reversed half my large wager before kickoff. Any team who is not prepared to play and turns it over 4 times on the road against even a below average or bad team is going to lose straight up and surely not cover a 9 point spread that escalated over the weekend to 10.
Washington proved to everyone the NFC East is going to be a dogfight, and while we all knew they had vast talent for the past couple of years, and the QB position was holding them back somewhat with Joe Gibbs and a bunch of dinosaurs calling the shots last year, Jim Zorn has refined and honed this team into a real contender. Dallas overlooked them slightly, and that was all they needed. The Jets scoring 50+ points and all word superstar and personal idol, Brett Favre having 6 TD passes was another shocker against a decent Arizona team, once again not prepared to play. Tennessee was suppose to be a bottom dweller and QB Kerry Collins career in the crapper as a so/so back-up, and now they are 4-0 and in command both on offense and defense, and Vince Young turns out to be nothing more than an expensive experiment gone awry.
Stay tuned folks, while I am licking my wounds from this past weekend as many of you, I urge you to use caution, wear your seat belts on the couch while watching 25 point favorites in the Top 10 get beat. I always bounce back but the caution I use will be more apparent in the upcoming weeks, I suggest we all get on that page together.
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