Mid-American Conference Preview
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Matt Fargo of Sharp Sports Advisors weighs in every year his previews for all NCAA Division 1 Football teams and conferences. It’s the middle of Augus but before you know the games on Saturday will be here.
The MAC is a conference that parity reigns supreme. Sure there are the perennial doormats but even those teams make a surprise run or at the very least, pull off an upset or two along the way. Starting with the MAC East, it wasn’t too long ago that Miami was always near the top and fighting it out for the division championship. That is no longer the case.
Since the RedHawks last division title in 2004-05, there have been four difference champs with Buffalo making the surprising run last season.
It should be anyone’s division, almost, once again in 2009.
Buffalo Bulls 8-6 SU, 8-5 ATS, 9-4 O/U
Summary: With a division with so many questions for so many teams, it makes sense to give Buffalo the early edge. The Bulls had seven wins combined from 2002 through 2006 then posted five victories in 2007 before winning eight last season including six in the MAC to claim the crown. The Bulls were fortunate to beat Temple on a last second Hail Mary as well as win three other games in overtime. It was very possible that Buffalo could have gone 4-10 instead of 8-6 but I give them the benefit of the doubt and say it was good coaching and leadership that pulled out those wins. Gone is four-year starting quarterback Drew Willy so there will be a big dropoff in that regard but there are other pieces in place for Buffalo to compete again.
Schedule: The schedule is very top heavy with three tough non-conference games, two on the road at UTEP and at UCF with the other at home against Pittsburgh. In MAC play, the Bulls get Bowling Green and Ohio at home this year but got the short end as their two games in the West are against the two favorites, Central Michigan and Western Michigan.
Bottom Line: Because of the close wins last season, the law of averages say that those will reverse themselves out. I’m not so sure about that however as I mentioned, coaching has a lot to do with it. Turner Gill is one of the top young coaches around and he has completely turned this program from a bottom feeder into a contender in only three years. Buffalo is hoping for its second ever bowl game this season.
Betting Forecast: Buffalo is 17-8 ATS in the MAC under Gill and I still don’t think it gets the respect it deserves. Look for more of the same this year.
Ohio Bobcats 4-8 SU, 6-4-1 ATS, 5-6 O/U
Summary: It has been an inconsistent ride since Frank Solich took over the Bobcats five years ago. He has had only one winning season in Athens and that was in 2006 when Ohio won the MAC East and went to a bowl game for the first time since 1968. Instead of building momentum, the last two years have been downers but this could be the year that things turn back around. That is certainly a good thing but it is more because of the mediocrity around the Bobcats as opposed to the strength of the team. Still, this team is due for breaks as it has been -14 in turnover margin the last three years so some bounces could come their way this season. The running game will once again be the emphasis with the quarterbacks playing a bigger role in that.
Schedule: Ohio has a tough test at Tennessee in its fourth non-conference game but it could feasibly be 3-0 heading into that one from wins over Connecticut, North Texas and Cal Poly. The MAC schedule starts with two road games at Bowling Green and Akron who will both be looming to win the East as well. The Bobcats two games against the West are at Ball St. and at home against Northern Illinois.
Bottom Line: Ohio has just as good of a shot of winning the East as four or five other teams do. It will come down to the defense that lost a lot of talent as well as how the duel quarterback situation pans out. The Bobcats had their worst rushing season since 2004 before Solich took over and that is something he takes personally. If Ohio can go from -12 in turnovers last year to positive this year, the division could be going here.
Betting Forecast: Ohio has gone 9-4 ATS the last two years following a loss and that is coaching. A loss at Tennessee means the next game at Bowling Green is worth a look.
Bowling Green Falcons 6-6 SU, 7-4 ATS, 4-7 O/U
Summary: Gregg Brandon put together a 44-30 record in six years at Bowling Green and had just one losing season in his time but he was let go after last year. That shows how important the administration thinks it should be winning every single season. The Falcons brought in Dave Clawson who was the offensive coordinator at Tennessee where he obviously struggled. However, the defenses in the SEC and the MAC are far from close so he should be just fine. His biggest challenge will be to improve a defense that was adequate last season but must replace eight starters including the entire defensive line. The offense was better than the final ranking last season and will improve even more and may need to carry the load.
Schedule: The Falcons will be challenged early and often and that could either strengthen the team or send it reeling early. They host a tough Troy team to open the season and then travel to Missouri nine days later. A road game at Marshall follows before hosting a game with Boise St. The two teams from the West are Central Michigan and Toledo and both are at home.
Bottom Line: Good things could happen at Bowling Green if the defense can find its identity. The Falcons will be able to outscore a number of opponents but the offense will not be able to win every game, especially early on. Had the defense not lost as much as it did, Bowling Green would be the favorite to win the East. If it starts out 0-4, that could be a serious hit but an upset along the way is possible.
Betting Forecast: With the potent offense and the revamped defense, don’t be surprised to see the Falcons reverse that 4-7 O/U mark from last season.
Temple Owls 5-7 SU, 7-4-1 ATS, 5-7 O/U
Summary: Temple finished last season with five wins, the most since 1990 so it was considered a big year for some but the Owls still considered it a disappointing season. They expected more and if not for losing three games on the final play, Temple would have been bowl eligible. Expectations are high once again as head coach Al Golden has turned one of the worst programs in the country to a team that has the ability to win the MAC. Temple needs to replace quarterback Adam DiMichele and that is a big challenge. Everything else looks to already be in place, especially the MAC’s top ranked defense that should be even better this year with nine starters coming back. The frustrations that took place last season could very well be a springboard into 2009.
Schedule: Army, Navy and Penn St. dot the non-conference schedule as they do most years along with Villanova and coming away 2-2 in those games is likely. The MAC schedule is fairly tame with the toughest road games being at Toledo, Akron and Ohio. The Owls miss Central Michigan and Western Michigan in the West and get Buffalo at home this season.
Bottom Line: The turnaround at Temple has been a great story but the Owls still have not gotten where they want to go. If the quarterback situation pans out, this could finally be the year since the defense is going to be solid. Because the quarterback plays such a big role, Temple is placed in the middle of the pack but it could very well be holding the division title come November.
Betting Forecast: Temple is 7-2-1 ATS as a home underdog under Golden and it is possible it is in that role against Buffalo and Ball St. so key an eye on that.
Akron Zips 5-7 SU, 6-6 ATS, 9-3 O/U
Summary: Akron has not won the MAC East since 2005 and as a matter of fact, that is the last time that the Zips have had a winning season. That certainly makes one thing clear and that is head coach J.D. Brookhart is on the hotseat. The addition of Shane Montgomery, the former Miami (Ohio) head coach to lead the offense and Walt Harris, the former Pittsburgh head coach to lead the quarterbacks, can only help the offense and that was not the bad part last season. The defense was the issue as the Zips finished 90th overall and 95th in scoring. If they can firm that up, they have a great shot at winning the division. The problem is that just like Akron, the four other teams in front all have roughly the same shot in the wide open MAC East.
Schedule: If it isn’t the defense, the schedule could be the downfall. The Zips face two Big Ten teams out of conference as well as playing a game at an improved Syracuse team. Within the MAC, Akron has two games at home and two on the road against the four teams listed ahead of it here but it also has to travel to Central Michigan and Northern Illinois from the West.
Bottom Line: The chances are as good as any of the four teams already written about for the Zips to win the MAC East. They have nine starters back on offense, one that averaged a solid 30.0 ppg last season and the offensive minds brought in will only help make the unit stronger. I see the schedule being the only real issue standing in the way as the first three MAC games could put them 0-3.
Betting Forecast: Akron is just 3-10-1 ATS following a win over the last three years but with the new assistants, this coaching trend could reverse itself if given the opportunities.
Kent St. Golden Flashes 4-8 SU, 4-6 ATS, 7-3 O/U
Summary: Kent St. has a streak in the MAC that it is not proud of. The Golden Flashes have not been to a bowl game since 1972 and that is the longest drought of any current team in the conference. Kent St. has been bowl eligible twice since 2001 but it did not get selected and likely won’t again unless it wins the MAC Championship. Unfortunately that probably will not happen and head coach Doug Martin could be out of a job. It finished 36th in the nation in total offense but it must replace quarterback Julian Edelman who led the team in both passing and rushing. That is tough player to replace and it just isn’t going to happen right away. The defense stumbled numerous times last season but let’s not forget that this is the MAC and we always see a team surprise that shouldn’t.
Schedule: Three of the four non-conference games are against BCS teams, two of which are on the road so it looks like three losses are a given. As far as the MAC schedule, it is one of the easier ones of any team in the whole conference. The Golden Flashes face only two teams from the West and the toughest is at home against Western Michigan. The two toughest in the East are at Temple and Ohio.
Bottom Line: Strange things happen in this conference and Kent St. has just as good of a shot as any other team at this point. I just do not see how a team can lose 3,190 total yards from one player and expect to compete the following season. The schedule sets up well as it starts easy in conference action and a few wins could start something and give us a real big sleeper.
Betting Forecast: Kent St. is 3-10 ATS since 2002 as a home favorite. We will see a couple early chalk lines so tread very lightly if looking to back the Golden Flashes.
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks 2-10 SU, 4-6 ATS, 5-5 O/U
Summary: The only certain, or as close to certain as possible, is that the RedHawks will bring up the rear in the MAC East. While the six other teams above them have a legitimate shot at the division, some more than others, that chance is slim for Miami. A new head coach in Mike Haywood, along with new offensive and defensive coordinators mean new schemes and a rebuilding project is on the way. The good news is that this team of coaches has a big pedigree so the future should be here sooner rather than later. Miami has been outscored in each of the last three years and has not been to a bowl game since 2004. That seems impossible for a team that was near the top of the conference for years. Unfortunately, that won’t change this season.
Schedule: Making matters even worse is a schedule that does not let up. The non-conference games are against Kentucky, Boise St., Cincinnati and Northwestern and those are sandwiched around two MAC road games to start the year. Even though four of the final five games are at home, three are against teams potentially in the hunt for a division title.
Bottom Line: There is hope for the RedHawks who have taken a huge fall since the glory days of Josh Betts and Ben Roethlisberger. Following a 5-3 conference record in 2007, last year was supposed to be the big turnaround for head coach Shane Montgomery but it turned into a disaster as Miami went 2-10 and 1-7 in the MAC. Those victory totals may be tough to surpass with the brutal schedule that lies ahead.
Betting Forecast: Miami is just 4-11 ATS at home over the last three seasons but with the low expectations, we will get some good home dog spots. Stay tuned for the value.
The West has seen teams rise and fall and then rise again. Last year in was Ball St. going 8-0 in the MAC and winning the West. Prior to that, Central Michigan won back-to-back crowns after Toledo did the same thing in 2004 and 2005. The conference was realigned in 2005 to try and move some of the stronger teams into the weaker East Division and that was a great plan as it has caused the titles to come down to the final weeks for a majority of the teams. The West is a little top heavy this year but don’t worry, there will be upsets.
Central Michigan Chippewas 8-5 SU, 5-7 ATS, 6-6 O/U
Summary: From top to bottom, Central Michigan is the class of not only the West but of the entire MAC. That would normally mean a runaway title but the Chippewas do not have an easy road as the schedulemakers did them no favors as explained later. Dan LeFevour is the best quarterback in the conference and one of the best in the country and should get some Heisman consideration. The offense is explosive but the defense returns nine starters to a unit that finished 104th in the country last season. That could be good or bad as it may mean another average season or it could mean vast improvement. Either way, Central Michigan is the team to beat. Whether the Chippewas run the table depends on a lot of factors.
Schedule: This is where the division is no lock for the Chippewas as the schedule is absolutely brutal. Not only do they have only five home games but the four toughest conference games are all on the road as they travel to Buffalo, Western Michigan, Bowling Green and Ball St. If that isn’t bad enough, non-conference trips include Arizona, Michigan St. and Boston College.
Bottom Line: After going 3-26 on the road between 2000 and 2004, Central Michigan has gone 16-11 away from home since then which is pretty impressive. That kind of road success no doubt bodes well for this year as it is going to take some big road wins for the Chippewas to reclaim the MAC. It won’t be easy but I think there is enough there to get it done.
Betting Forecast: Central Michigan is coming off its first losing road conference ATS record in four years. With the tough road slate this year, another slide is likely.
Western Michigan Broncos 9-4 SU, 5-7 ATS, 7-5 O/U
Summary: If there is a team in the West that can take down the Chippewas, it is most likely Western Michigan. Head coach Bill Cubit has turned around a program that went 1-10 in 2004 and then led the Broncos to two bowl games in the last three years. The offense ranked 28th in the nation a season ago and will be the strength again led by quarterback Tim Hiller and running back Brandon West. The problem for Western Michigan is the defense. They finished 87th in the country in total defense last year and now must replace eight starters on that unit. Change can be good and may actually help considering the defense was just as bad the previous year.
Schedule: The schedule is by no means easy but it does not compare to the difficult slate Central Michigan has. Three non-conference games are on the road against Big Ten teams including a late one in November at Michigan St. The tough MAC roadies are at Northern Illinois and Toledo, both of which aren’t horrible. Getting the Chippewas at home is huge but there are no byes on the schedule.
Bottom Line: The schedule sets up great for Western Michigan to make a run at the West title. I think it is a very realistic goal. My hesitation from putting them at the top is the defense and whether or not it can get better. The MAC is loaded with solid offenses this year so any lapses from the stop unit could be detrimental. The offense will be great but it can’t outscore everyone.
Betting Forecast: I expect to see a lot of points in Broncos games this season with a strong offense and a potential bad defense. Keep an eye on those totals.
Northern Illinois Huskies 6-7 SU, 6-6 ATS, 5-6-1 O/U
Summary: Northern Illinois heads the second tier of teams in the West. Following a 2-10 record in 2007, the Huskies overachieved with a young team last year and actually made it to a bowl game where it lost to Louisiana Tech despite outplaying the Bulldogs. A repeat of that will be tough as Northern Illinois is still a very young team. There are only three senior starters on offense, none at the skill positions and after returning all 11 starters on defense a season ago, the Huskies return only three this year. Head coach Jerry Kill did a fantastic job in 2008 to make that huge turnaround and while it isn’t going to be a huge step back, any step forward in 2009 is pretty unlikely.
Schedule: Northern Illinois gets two breaks in its non-conference schedule as it hosts Idaho and Western Illinois so it will be 2-2 heading into the MAC slate since it will not win at Wisconsin or at Purdue. The first MAC game is homecoming against Western Michigan and while the next five games are doable, the Huskies close at Ohio and at Central Michigan.
Bottom Line: An upset at home against Western Michigan is definitely possible and that could mean a showdown against Central Michigan at the end of the year. The problem is there are a lot of games in-between meaning a lot of places to slip up. I believe this team is simply too young on both sides of the ball to make a serious run this year but Northern Illinois is going to one to look out for in the next couple years.
Betting Forecast: The Huskies used to have a strong home field edge but they have gone 1-9 ATS the last three years as a home chalk. Expect that to continue.
Toledo Rockets 3-9 SU, 6-6 ATS, 3-8-1 O/U
Summary: After 12 straight winning seasons, tough times have fallen on the Rockets. They have endured three straight losing seasons and it will take a monumental effort this season to avoid a fourth. Head coach Tom Amstutz left after eight seasons and while the cupboards were not left bare for incumbent Tim Beckman, it will be no cakewalk. Toledo does return 17 starters from last season and that is very positive but improving by three wins is difficult, especially in this conference and with its tough schedule. Of its nine losses last season, six were by 17 or more points so Toledo was not competitive very often. I do expect some improvements from the Rockets but not enough to make a major move up.
Schedule: Toledo has a tough start to the schedule as it faces Purdue, Colorado and Ohio St. The MAC slate is definitely easier but three of the road games are at Ball St., Central Michigan and Bowling Green. The good news is that the Rockets miss both Ohio and Buffalo from the East while catching both division cellar mates Miami and Eastern Michigan.
Bottom Line: I want to like this team more but something is holding me back. There is a lot of experience coming back including senior quarterback Aaron Opelt and 1,000-yard rusher Morgan Williams as well as eight players on defense but there looks like there is too much ground to make up. The offensive line is still young and there is hardly any depth and that is where it all starts.
Betting Forecast: Toledo is 31-15 ATS at home since 2000 and there has not been an ATS dropoff in recent years. The Glass Bowl still has its presence.
Ball St. Cardinals 12-2 SU, 9-4 ATS, 6-7 O/U
Summary: Ball St. was one of the surprises in the country last season as it ran out to a 12-0 record and had BCS aspirations. The Cardinals lost to Buffalo in the MAC Championship despite winning the yardage battle by over 200 yards and they were then blown out in the GMAC Bowl against Tulsa. They were without head coach Brady Hoke in that bowl game who left for San Diego St. and they were led by offensive coordinator Stan Parrish who is now the new head man. It is certainly looking like a rebuilding season in Muncie especially after the early departure of quarterback Nate Davis. Ball St. won’t go from first to worst but it will take a tumble with only 11 total starters returning and still having a bullseye on its back.
Schedule: Ball St. will likely start the year 3-0 again as it faces North Texas, New Hampshire and Army in its first three games. It then travels to Auburn before the MAC season begins with a homecoming game against Toledo. A 2-2 split in the first four conference games is likely but the bottom four games are all extremely tough and a winless finish is not farfetched.
Bottom Line: The Cardinals snuck up on a lot of teams last season because not many saw it coming. Even though the talent won’t be there this season, the Cardinals won’t have that same luxury. The potential is there with a strong running game and a solid defensive line so replacing Davis will be next to impossible after the incredible season he had. At least Eastern Michigan is in the division.
Betting Forecast: Ball St. has gone 23-13 ATS the last three years including a 7-2 ATS mark as a road chalk. The Cardinals will be overvalued and those runs both reverse themselves.
Eastern Michigan Eagles 3-9 SU, 4-7 ATS, 4-7 O/U
Summary: It is pretty safe to say that Eastern Michigan’s string of 22 seasons without a conference title will be extended. The Eagles have been close to breaking though on a few occasions but have been unable to get over that hump. Out went head coach Jeff Genyk and in came Ron English who has served as defensive coordinator at Michigan and Louisville the last three years. Genyk did not hurt the program but he was unable to turn it around and they are hoping English can accomplish that. It isn’t going to happen this season despite 16 returning starters. The defense finished 109th in scoring last season and won’t be much better. Quarterback Andy Schmidt is a bright spot and led the Eagles to 52 and 56 points in their final two games last season.
Schedule: The schedule is not impossible but it certainly is close. A win over Army at home in the opener could provide some needed confidence before hitting the road to play at Northwestern and Michigan the next two weeks. Three of the next four games are at home but none are easy and then the Eagles close with four of their final five games on the road including a game at Arkansas.
Bottom Line: The Eagles do have the potential to be a better team in 2009 but it might not be portrayed in the win column. Even with all of the returning starters, only nine are seniors so there will be a nucleus coming back in 2010. Eastern Michigan nearly upset Michigan two years ago and did upset Central Michigan last season so we could definitely see a surprise or two this year.
Betting Forecast: Eastern Michigan is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 non-conference games but don’t count the Eagles out as the offense is strong enough for some possible backdoor covers.
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