How To Consistently Beat Point Spreads
First and foremost, oddsmakers lines are very accurate, so bettors start out at a disadvantage right from the start because of the juice. So how is it possible to make consistent profits from wagering on sports? Let’s take a look at some of the ways to consistently beat point spreads.
For the sake of argument, this article will discuss point spread handicapping and not totals. I tend to focus more on point spreads anyway, so this article will provide better information if it is more specific.
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So let’s throw everything aside and answer the ultimate question. How do we make consistent long term profits betting on point spreads? One of the biggest questions people ask is how many games are too many to bet on in a given weekend, week, month, etc? In my opinion, there is no correct answer to this question. It all depends on your approach and system. Your system may force you to bet several games in a given day, or you may only make a handful of wagers each week. There is no right or wrong answer. Now obviously if you bet every point spread on a given day with no plan, then that would be too many selections. But what are some of the things a professional handicapper looks for when analyzing a card?
I’m going to focus this article now on just football and basketball, as they have the most similarities in regard to analyzing point spreads. One of the first things I do is to scan a card looking for teams coming off of big, emotional wins. Then I make the determination of the quality of that given team. The lower the quality of a team, the more likely they are to have a major letdown in their next game, especially if they have to play their next game on the road. This kind of situation will produce one of the most profitable long term point spreads results in my opinion. One of the better examples of this theory is the February 13th game between Villanova and West Virginia. They are higher quality than I usually look for, but it illustrates my point, while using common teams that people know and understand better. Villanova was coming off of a big home win and point spread cover against Marquette, while West Virginia was coming off of a home loss to Pittsburgh. Consequently, the Mountaineers were only a small home favorite against the Wildcats. However, that game featured a perfect storm of situations. West Virginia was motivated to rebound from their loss, while Villanova came in over confident because of their big win. In addition, there was tremendous value on the Mountaineers because they were being discounted in the betting market, while the Wildcats were given too much credit and overvalued. As a result, West Virginia was only a small favorite, giving bettors excellent point spread value. They proceeded to get a wire to wire blowout win, with a point spread that was never in doubt. Let’s look at another way to have long term point spread betting success.
The second key is to look for games that match one team with a strength that is the other team’s weakness, especially if the team with the strength is an underdog. A very strong recent example of this theory is the March 5th game between California and Arizona. The Wildcats are horrible at defending the three point line, one of the worst of all of the major conference teams. They were facing California, the best three point shooting team in all of college basketball, making them at 44.5%. The Wildcats also had to deal with a banged up Jordan Hill. Meanwhile, California was getting five points and was coming off of a loss. Consequently, the Golden Bears made sixteen three pointers, shooting 53.3% from the three point line. They were able to get a six point road win and cover the spread as a five point underdog.
The previous theory illustrates another point as well. Bettors spread themselves out too much instead of focusing on certain conferences or teams. Only following certain conferences or teams allows bettors to get an in-depth knowledge, which is critical to long-term handicapping success. Oddsmakers have the disadvantage in college basketball and football of having to put a line out on every game that gets a point spread. They can’t take a day off or pass on a given team. Therefore, they do put out bad lines occasionally in college basketball and football just because of the sheer number of games that require lines. 
Focusing on certain teams or conferences will allow a bettor to get more of an in-depth knowledge of teams and being better at finding discrepancies in lines. Let’s take a look at one more trend that professional handicappers use for long-term betting success.
This idea is most prevalent in the NBA in my opinion. The theory is to find short-term trends that the oddsmakers and betting public haven’t caught up to. One of the ways to determine when the value has gone away is when the media starts covering it. This season teams like New Jersey, L.A. Lakers, Oklahoma City, Cleveland, Charlotte, Minnesota, and Utah have all had small point spread streaks, win or lose, this season that bettors could have taken advantage of. These streaks could last anywhere from two weeks to half a season. It took oddsmakers about three months to adjust to Oklahoma City’s point spread success for example. It takes oddsmakers and the betting public awhile to adjust to these trends because of the amount and frequency of NBA games. An on-going trend right now is Charlotte’s recent hot streak. I was able to win one of my strongest NBA selections this season on Charlotte as a small home favorite against Atlanta because the marketplace did not fully adjusted to the Bobcats dramatically improved play, as well as a good home court advantage. In my opinion, the NBA can be beat by just finding these point spread streaks and figuring out which teams will be playing with the most motivation on a given night.
The previously discussed theories are just a sample of how to have long-term point spread betting success. It is important to have a strategy when handicapping games, as the sportsbooks start out with an advantage because of the juice charged to payouts. Using a plan and proven theories will enable the average bettor to have consistent long-term betting success.
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One reply on “Gambling Tips: Point Spreads”
How can you measure a given point spreads motivation on a quality underdog? I have to believe when the perfect situation presents itself, a quality team who is viewed as an underdog at home, I would always lean toward that pick. While I understand the other factors involved, I never under estimate the power of “being favored to lose” effect on a good team.