AFC Early Game Previews – Don’t Bet Against Dolphins, Bills!
Chargers to Get Snuffed By Bills
Leave it to J.P. Losman to ruin an undefeated season. The Bills are playing host to one of the most untrustworthy teams in NFL betting. The Chargers are 3-2-1 ATS, but most of those spread victories have come at home, or against the Raiders. The Bills are one of the steadier teams in the league, and have both Trent Edwards and Roscoe Parrish returning to the lineup this week.
The Bills give up only 184.8 passing yards against, meaning that Phillip Rivers might be able to unleash hell like he’s used to. On top of that, while San Diego has gone 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road, they will likely be without Darren Sproles or Chris Chambers this weekend. Even LDT looks like he might be able to run properly with an injured toe. Nothing that is happening in San Diego right now makes me feel comfortable about their chances this weekend against a cagey Bills team.
NFL Free pick: Buffalo -1 (UNDER 44.5)
Are The Dolphins Really That Good?
The easy answer is “yes”. They’re more fun to watch, have way more talent and are actually playing decent defense. Their one glaring weakness is their secondary, which gives up 239.0 yards per game. But the rushing defense is only surrendering 89.0 yards per game, which will be stiffly tested by the Le’Ron McClain who has averaged 4.1 yards per carry.
But the Dolphins have sprung an offense in the NFL that typically only works in college. Chad Pennington, who was shipped in from New York right before the season started ,has adapted it to it thanks to his high football IQ (which is actually the only reason he’s still in the league after two shoulder surgeries). But the real engine of this offense is their willingness to take risks with Ronnie Brown at tailback. Brown has averaged 4.7 yards per carry and has seven rushing touchdowns and a passing touchdown as well.
Don’t bet on Cameron or his new-look Dolphins to shrink in the face of Joe Flacco on the road. The Ravens have struggled on the road, while Miami has stunned many thus far. Expect these Fins to bring down the birds from Baltimore.
NFL Free Pick: Miami -3 (UNDER 36.5)
Chris Johnson To Continue Rookie of the Year Campaign
Chris Johnson has been a bulldozing, pass catching tour de force this year. He’s averaging 4.5 yards per carry and has amassed 381 yards in his quest to maintain the Titans’ undefeated streak. Though Larry Johnson has re-emerged as a veritable force, the quarterback situation in KC is too much of a concern to warrant their attention in the betting circles. This is a spread you might want to tease down in our BetUS Sportsbook, considering that Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 roadies and have gone 2-5 SU in their last 7 games against the Chiefs.
NFL Free Pick: Tennessee -8.5 (35)
Bengals To Get Beat Down At Home
It says a lot when your own fans are practically paying people to give up their season tickets. The Bengals have been downright disgusting this year. Can we impose a rule that you have to score at least 8 touchdowns before you legally change your name to something idiotic? The only reason that people care about Chad Johnson these days is because he’s been a brutal fantasy option this year. T.J. Whose-Your-Mamma has been doing all the work, and the Bengals’ rushing game has been non-existent.
The Steelers are easily one of the best teams in the AFC and are coming off a bye week that they’ve surely spent licking their wounds and getting Big Ben over a shoulder injury. The Steelers’ betting faithful have been burned this year with the Steelers’ 2-3 ATS record this season. But nothing in Cincinnati inspires me to believe that they can keep up with the offensively potent Steelers…especially if they don’t have Carson Palmer.
This sounds like an attractive teaser with Tennessee and Dallas this weekend actually…
NFL Free Pick: Pittsburgh -8.5 (OVER 34.5)
Drew Brees and Reggie To Stumble In Carolina
Brees and the Saints have fumbled their way to a brutal 3-3 SU record, covering the spread 4-of-6 times. They’re averaging a nice 28.7 points per game, but are proving to be the worst closers in the NFL. They simply can’t finish a game properly. While it’s easy to throw Carolina to the side, their secondary will give Brees more difficulty than you think.
Carolina has a point differential of +3.3 and are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 89 games. They’re also undefeated against the spread in their last five games. They’ve also had tremendous success against New Orleans in the last 5 games, winning four and dropping one in their last five meetings.
NFL Free Pick: Carolina -3 (OVER 44.5)
Marion Barber and Steven Jackson To Take Spotlight Sunday
Both men are absolute beasts, and if Dallas has any hopes of covering this 7.5 spread on the road, Marion will have to have the game of his life. If his season is any indication thus far, then St. Louis’ betting detractors are in deep trouble.
Brad Johnson or not, the Dallas Cowboys are dripping with talent. Adding Roy Williams to the flank will certainly boost the comfort level of any Dallas betting investor. If you’re really worried that Marc Bulger and Torry Holt are going to suddenly come alive against the best team in the NFC, then you’re an idiot. St. Louis beat the Skins last weekend on field goals. They can’t score a freaking touchdown! Are you seriously going to believe that they can beat the best team in the NFC with or without Tony Romo? Get serious.
NFL Free Pick: Dallas -7.5 (UNDER 43)
New York Giants Defense To Smother 49ers
The Giants are easily one of the best teams in football, despite Eli Manning reverting back to his 2006 self for some reason on Monday Night against the Browns. They’re still averaging 28.2 points per game, which is 11.4 more points than they allow. They’ve gone 3-2 ATS this NFL betting season and are rewarding anyone willing to lump faith in them.
I wish I could say the same about the 49ers. They’re a gutsy team, and I like J.T. O’Sullivan’s resilience. But they’re averaging a point differential of -4.3 and haven’t exactly hit the road well. They’re 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games on the road, and while it may be easy to assume that the Giants will give up a mountain of yards to Frank Gore, I wouldn’t bet on it. San Fran’s secondary is going to get plucked by Eli’s suddenly deep wide-receiver troop.
NFL Free Pick: NYG -10.5 (OVER 46)
Chicago To Continue Minnesota’s Woes
Both teams can run and stop the run. Both teams have horrific secondaries. But only one team can pass. Sounds like an easy bet, doesn’t it?
Chicago has averaged 218.7 yards per game through the air behind Kyle Orton’s arm and gained a nice 118.3 rushing yard average with the emergence of Matt Forte as the premier tailback. Their secondary has some questions to answer, allowing 236.3 yards against per game through the air. But against the Vikings this Sunday, you can expect the Gus Bus to come to a screeching halt as the winds in Chicago make it hard for either team to throw.
I just don’t trust this Minnesota team now. They’re 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games, and 3-5-1 ATS in their last 9 games against Chicago. The Bears are not the sexiest pick this weekend, but they’re a safe bet with the home team spread in their favor.
NFL Free Pick: Chicago -3 (UNDER 38)
