The NFL Double Take
Week 17 offers our Sportsbook.com writers one last chance to provide our members with winning picks, and a shot at redemption after each stumbled last week.
Each writer went 1-3 against the spread (ATS) last week, a rare miss as both have had profitable seasons. Cras is 34-27-3 going into this weekend’s action while Mike is 33-28-3.
For the final week of the season, we asked them to predict four afternoon games with playoff implications. Here’s what they thought:
Oakland Raiders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike: These teams were surprising last week as Oakland handled an up-and-coming Houston team, winning 26-17. Tampa Bay really hurt their playoff chances by losing at home to San Diego, 41-24.
Tampa needs a win here and then hope that Dallas loses at Philly to get the last NFC Wild Card. Tampa has been a shell of itself the last three weeks, losing three straight, but I can’t see Oakland playing two good games in-a-row and I’m taking the Bucs despite this large spread.
Pick: Tampa Bay -13
Cras: Tampa Bay has gone into the tank at the worst possible time and now they need a win, and some help, to make the playoffs. The three-straight losses are definitely not impressive and neither is the fact that they’ve covered just one spread in their last four games.
The good news is the Bucs get Oakland this weekend at home, a place where they were basically perfect until last weekend’s loss to San Diego. Tampa had won their previous six home games but have covered just one of their last four home games. It’s a tall spread this week but I like the defense’s chances of keeping the Raiders offense in check.
Pick: Tampa Bay -13
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens
Mike: Baltimore is coming off a huge win at Dallas and they wrap up the last AFC Wild Card spot with a win. Jacksonville meanwhile, will end their hugely disappointing season and try to regroup next year.
Baltimore is going to bring the heat in this game from the opening gun, while Jacksonville will have their bags packed ready to go on vacation. Once the Jags get hit in the mouth a few times, I see them mailing it in, and this should be a 14-point game at halftime with it getting worse from there.
Pick: Baltimore -12.5
Cras: Baltimore is going to win this game; it’s only a matter of by how many points they beat the lowly Jags by. Most people expect a blowout given what’s at stake for the Ravens but I wouldn’t count Jacksonville out so quickly.
Jaguars’ head coach Jack Del Rio is a class act and won’t accept anything less than a full effort from his team, even if they are simply playing out the season on Sunday. He’ll have his team ready and they’ll enter the game with full intentions of spoiling Baltimore’s postseason appearance. Ultimately, they fall short but it’s a closer game than most think.
Pick: Jacksonville +12.5
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Mike: This is a very interesting spread with Dallas a slight dog. I would have thought it would be the other way around and 82% of the early bettors agree with my line of thinking, backing Dallas.
Dallas is in the playoffs with a victory, while Philly needs a win and a whole lot of help. The Eagles want to win this game regardless because they hate the Cowboys, but they looked bad last week versus Washington and Dallas was playing great before their hiccup last week against the physical Ravens.
Pick: Dallas +1.5
Cras: Who can figure out the Philadelphia Eagles this season? Just when you’re ready to count them out, they reel off three-straight wins, including two over playoff teams. Then you’re ready to put them in the postseason and they score just three points in Washington.
Expect a better performance by the Eagles at home this weekend. Philly has dominated the Cowboys of late, covering four of the last five spreads. Better yet, the Cowboys are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine December games. This should be a classic game and I’m banking on the Cowboys continuing their recent stretch of late season disappointments.
Pick: Philadelphia -1.5
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Mike: This game has more drama than any other with Miami quarterback Chad Pennington returning to play his former team with the AFC East title on the line. A win by the Dolphins mean they are the champs.
The Jets will win the East with a win and New England losing at Buffalo. If the Patriots win, the Jets can still get the Wild Card if Baltimore loses. One thing to watch for is the Jets’ crowd, they want the head of Coach Eric Mangini after last week and it will be interesting to see if they boo Brett Favre and cheer Pennington. I like Miami.
Pick: Miami +2.5
Cras:New York has covered nine of the last 10 spreads against Miami, with the only spread they failed to cover resulting in a push. However, bettors relying on that trend better think twice because this Dolphins team doesn’t resemble the squad from year’s past.
Miami is much improved this season, they’ve had a good run to get in position for the playoffs and there are a few factors that may get bettors to lean in their favor; specifically Pennington returning to his former home to end his former team’s hopes for the postseason. Unfortunately for them, and their backers, I think this is where the miracle run ends.
Pick: New York Jets -2.5
