THE NFL DOUBLE TAKE
Week 13 was the first in many in which one of our guys didn’t pull out a profitable Sunday.
Each Sportsbook.com writer went 2-2 against the spread (ATS) with last weekend’s picks and that leaves Mike with a 29-21-3 record this year and Cras at 26-23-3.
Here’s how they pick four of this Sunday’s most interesting games:
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants
Mike: The spread for this game has dropped to seven points after opening with Philadelphia getting nine. A big part of that reason is the recent Plaxico Burress arrest and the fact that some of his teammates are being investigated, like middle linebacker Antonio Pierce.
Philadelphia bounced back with a nice home win over Arizona on Thanksgiving. Despite that, I still don’t have any confidence in quarterback Donovan McNabb, especially on the road. Giants coach Tom Coughlin is one of the best in the league in limiting distractions and I’m not going against a team that is 10-2 ATS on the year.
Pick: New York Giants -7
Cras: As bad as the Eagles have looked at times this season, they could have easily beaten the Giants back in Week 10. Losers by a 36-31 final, Philadelphia shot themselves in the foot several times with bad penalties and poor plays to blow a great chance to hand the defending champs a loss.
New York won big over Washington last week and, as always, the majority of the money for this week’s game is on the Giants as touchdown favorites. That’s a pretty big spread for two fierce rivals that usually play each other close and I like the Eagles on Sunday.
Pick: Philadelphia +7
Houston Texans @ Green Bay Packers
Mike: Houston is coming off a great home win over Jacksonville on Monday Night Football, and at 5-7 overall, they have the same record as Green Bay. Quarterback Matt Schaub is returning to action this week but I question how rusty he’ll be after a four-game layoff.
Green Bay still has a shot at the playoffs despite their sub .500 record, but they need to win their remaining four games. The Sunday weather forecast calls for a high of 21 degrees and that’s a huge advantage for the men from Lambeau. So far, 84% of the bettors are taking the Pack and you can count me among them.
Pick: Green Bay -5.5
Cras: As disappointing as the Packers have been, they’re a money-making 7-5 against the spread (ATS) despite two-straight losing weeks. That hasn’t deterred members as they continue to pound the Pack as 5 ½-point favorites, even as rumors swirl about coach Mike McCarthy’s confidence in first-year sitarting quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
Meanwhile, the Texans impressed last Monday, have covered three-straight spreads and are supposed to be getting starting quarterback Schaub back, but can’t garner much support. I’m in the minority but I love the Texans in this game.
Pick: Houston +5.5
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
Mike: This is the hardest game of the four for me. New Orleans has been very good at home at 4-1 straight-up and ATS, but they’ve had a lot of injuries and are dealing with the drug suspension mess that will keep defensive end Will Smith and running back Deuce McAllister out.
Atlanta continues to play very solid football and they had a great win at San Diego last week. The Falcons have a balanced offense and there’s really not a lot to dislike about this team right now. That said, the Saints lost 34-20 in Atlanta last month, but their offense is explosive enough at home to make amends.
Pick: New Orleans -3
Cras: Both of these teams have been profitable at 8-4 ATS and each squad has covered four of the last five games. There’s more at stake for the Falcons in this game as they are trying to earn a playoff berth while it appears that the Saints are simply playing out the schedule after another disappointing season.
Because of that, Sportsbook.com members love the Falcons as three-point underdogs but bettors should remember that the Saints are 4-1 straight up and ATS in the Superdome this year and while they remain a mystery on the road, they play their best football at home.
Pick: New Orleans -3
Dallas Cowboys @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Mike: This is going to be a great game to watch. Dallas is perfect straight up and ATS since Tony Romo returned three weeks ago. However, going into Pittsburgh with freezing temperatures and with running back Marion Barber questionable with a toe injury, it’s a much bigger challenge.
Pittsburgh has had key injury problems of their own, but Ben Roethlisberger and Willie Parker should both play. The Steelers have also proven vulnerable at home, losing to Indy and the New York Giants and almost losing to San Diego. I think Barber toughs it out, plays well and I’m taking the points.
Pick: Dallas +3
Cras: The best game on the schedule features the best defense in the league, up against one of the best offenses in the league. Pittsburgh’s defense took advantage of bad weather, dropped balls and a bundle of turnovers to beat the Patriots but likely won’t get the same advantages this week.
The Cowboys offense won’t provide the Steelers with the easy scoring opportunities they were given in the second half of last week’s game but I expect the defense to confuse quarterback Tony Romo and create lots of disruption.
Pick: Pittsburgh -3
