THE NFL DOUBLE TAKE
If you’re riding the hot hand, you’ve had some big weeks of late.
In his Double Take picks, our own Sportsbook.com writer Mike is an impressive 9-3 against the spread over the last three weeks. That’s improved his season record to a very impressive 27-18-3. Cras has struggled in recent weeks but is still a profitable 24-21-3.
Here’s how they break down four of this week’s biggest games.
Denver Broncos @ New York Jets
Mike: The New York Jets are one of the hottest teams in football with a five-game winning streak. Their last two wins were on the road at New England to move into first place in the AFC East and at Tennessee to ruin their perfect 10-0 start. That must mean beating Denver will be easy, right?
The Broncos are a maddening team that won two road games before losing to Oakland at home in a humiliating defeat. They will get cornerback Champ Bailey back as well as running back Selvin Young. That should add more balance to the offense, and I think they keep this within a TD against a Jets team that will have a letdown.
Pick: Denver +7.5
Cras: I’ve been going against Sportsbook.com members the past two weeks and have been getting killed but I can’t seem to buy into the Jets being a true contender. I can’t get rid of the pictures of the New York team from early in the season; the one that barely beat Miami, lost to New England with a first-time starting quarterback, got beat down by San Diego, lost to Oakland and barely escaped against Kansas City.
That said, it’s not about what happens over the rest of the season, it’s about what happens Sunday and New York should be able to stomp all over this Denver defense and get a pretty easy victory at home. The Jets just need to stick to the run game.
Pick: New York Jets -7.5
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers
Mike: Carolina is 8-3 on the year and Green Bay is 5-6, but it’s the Pack who are favored. One big reason for that is Carolina’s home/away split. The Panthers are 6-0 at home and just 2-3 on the road. The last loss was last week at Atlanta, 45-28 in a fourth quarter collapse.
Green Bay is one of the best 5-6 teams in recent history. They are solid on both sides of the ball, and have been victimized somewhat by a very tough schedule and some close losses. The Pack’s last two home games were blowouts over Indy and Chicago and I see no reason to go against them here.
Pick: Green Bay -3
Cras: I heard some radio banter this week about how the Carolina Panthers are one of the most unimpressive 8-3 teams ever. It’s a pretty bold statement as there aren’t many 8-3 teams in the league but it’s a statement that Sportsbook.com members obviously agree with as they are pounding the hometown Packers this week.
I have to side with the bettors here as all three of Carolina’s losses have come on the road and the Packers are desperate to stay in the NFC North race with Minnesota and Chicago. I expect Aaron Rodgers to recover from Monday night’s third quarter debacle and deliver a win here.
Pick: Green Bay -3
New York Giants @ Washington Redskins
Mike: This is a must win for Washington as they are three games behind the Giants in the division and they are fighting for a Wild Card. It also looks like a tough spot for the Giants as they had to play in Arizona before flying all the way back for another road game.
Despite those factors, it’s really hard for me to go against the Giants. I took them last week at Arizona giving three points and they are 9-2 ATS for the year. They are clearly the superior team and Washington has not played well at home since September. I’m riding the G-Men.
Pick: New York Giants -3.5
Cras: It’s no secret why 98% of the vote is with the New York Giants in this game. The Giants are rolling through the competition while, after a strong start to the season, the Redskins failed to cover their last four home games and had lost two straight games before last week’s win in Seattle.
Washington’s three-point win last week failed to build the confidence of the betting public and with the way New York is playing, who can blame Sportsbook.com members. The defending champs look great and should add a win over their divisional rival on Sunday.
Pick: New York Giants -3.5
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
Mike: This is a big game for both teams as they fight for the playoffs. The big question for Pittsburgh is whether running back Willie Parker will play. He is questionable with a knee injury and the Steelers will be forced to pass more with him out of the lineup.
New England is going to pass the ball no matter what. Quarterback Matt Cassel has been on fire of late and they will not be able to run the ball a lot on the Pitt front seven. If Cassel continues to play well, they’ll have enough success moving the ball against the Steelers banged up secondary to get the home win.
Pick: New England -1
Cras: It surprised me to look at this game and see the Patriots listed as a slim favorite. It surprised me even more that bettors preferred New England in this game. Sure, the offense has looked great the past two weekends but they haven’t played a defense as good as Pittsburgh’s.
The game rests on the arm of Matt Cassel and he’ll be playing the best defensive unit he’s seen all year. This will go a long way in showing whether he’s progressed as much as we all believe and while I think the Patriots will keep it close, I ultimately believe Pittsburgh edges them in this game.
Pick: Pittsburgh +1
