New Orleans Bowl – Sunday, December 20, 2009 8:30 PM ET
The Betting Numbers
Southern Mississippi opened as a three-point favorite and the line has gradually risen to -3.5 with also a few -4’s in the mix. I expect this line to go up even more by gametime so if you are going to be taking the Golden Eagles, it is best to do it sooner rather than later. The total opened at 60 and has come down as far at 57.5 with the majority of shops sitting on 58 early in the week.
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Odds: MTSU +3.5 | ML: +145 | O/U 57.5
Odds: Southern Miss -3.5 | ML: -165
Series History
This is the first ever meeting between Middle Tennessee and Southern Mississippi.
The Teams
Middle Tennessee comes into this game with a lot of momentum. They are currently on a six-game winning streak and only one of those games was even close as the Blue Raiders average margin of victory is 21.7 ppg over this stretch. Middle Tennessee finished the season 9-3 overall and 7-1 in the Sun Belt Conference with the only loss coming to Troy, the regular season champion who went 8-0. The Blue Raiders went 2-2 in non-conference games and it was hardly a cupcake schedule as wins came against Maryland and Memphis while the losses were against Clemson and Mississippi St. That loss against the Bulldogs was the last loss the Blue Raiders suffered.
The Southern Mississippi season was not as good as it finished 7-5 on the year including a 5-3 finish in Conference-USA. The season did come down to the final week however as the Golden Eagles took on East Carolina for the East Division title but the Pirates prevailed in that one 25-20. The Golden Eagles went just 1-5 away from home including a 1-2 record against bowl teams. They are no strangers to this bowl game as this is the fourth appearance at the New Orleans Bowl including a second year in a row. Southern Mississippi defeated Troy in overtime last season and is now a perfect 3-0 in this bowl.
Against the Numbers
Expectations were not too high for the Blue Raiders and because of that they caught some favorable numbers which helped with their 9-3 record against the number. Middle Tennessee went a perfect 6-0 as a favorite but just 3-3 as underdogs and 2-2 as single-digit road underdogs. While it is riding a six-game winning streak, it is also riding a six-game cover streak. Seven of their 12 games went over the total including three of the final four and four of six played away from home on the season.
Southern Mississippi was 6-5 ATS this year with one game, Alcorn St., having no line. It was a tale of two seasons as the Golden Eagles started the year going 1-4 against the number but closed the campaign by covering five of the final six games. Despite that 1-5 record on the road, the Golden Eagles did cover half of those games and closed on a 2-0 ATS run on the road. Seven of their 11 lined games went under the total including six of the eight games when favored.
The Matchup
Middle Tennessee finished the regular season ranked 30th in total offense and 29th in scoring offense and those are huge improvements from last season when the Blue Raiders were ranked 70th and 84th respectively. The biggest difference has been the rushing offense as they are averaging 181.3 ypg which is good for 34th in the nation. The Southern Mississippi defense had been a mainstay in Hattiesburg but it has slipped the last couple years and this year the Golden Eagles finished with the 77th ranked total defense at 387.7 ypg although that was good for third in the defensively challenged C-USA. The rushing defense is the strength, allowing just 121.5 ypg on 3.4 ypc.
The Golden Eagles offense was nearly as potent as Middle Tennessee as they averaged just one yard less per game overall with 418.3 ypg, good for 31st in the country. The offense put up 43 or more points in three of the last five games. While the Blue Raiders offense made huge strides, the defense showed big improvements as well. Middle Tennessee allowed 351.6 ypg and 23.0 ppg, 49th and 45th respectively and it got better as the season went along. The Blue Raiders allowed 21 points or less in each of their last six games which coincides with that winning streak.
Intangibles
This is the 8th straight season Southern Mississippi has gone bowling (4-3 SU 4-2-1 ATS)… This will mark just the 2nd bowl game in the FBS era for Middle Tennessee who lost the 2006 Motor City Bowl to Central Michigan 31-14…Memphis was the only common opponent this season with Middle Tennessee winning 31-14 and Southern Mississippi winning 36-16…The Blue Raiders offense is led by offensive coordinator Tony Franklin who was fired at Auburn halfway through last season…Southern Mississippi quarterback Martevious Young took over for Austin Davis and finished with 13 touchdowns and one interception in seven starts.
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