Big 12 Preview
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The Big XII South is once again stacked compared to its counterpart in the North. Last season, Oklahoma despite losing to Texas during the regular season, made it to the BCS Championship where it lost the title game to Florida. The Sooners, along with Texas and Texas Tech, finished the regular season at 7-1 and it looks as though three teams again will be vying for the South Division title. Texas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. are ranked 2nd, 3rd and 9th respectively in the AP Preseason poll, tied with the SEC for the most teams ranked within the top ten. It may be a longshot but every team in the South could make a bowl game this season.
Oklahoma Sooners 12-2 SU, 10-3 ATS, 11-2 O/U
Summary: The Sooners will be looking to make it four straight and seven of the last eight South Division championships. The road will not be easy based on the fact that the division is a bear but they look to have the inside slant. Oklahoma scored only 14 points in the BCS Championship against the Gators after piling up more than 60 points in each of its last five games leading up to that. The offense is stacked again led by reigning Heisman winner quarterback Sam Bradford and numerous playmakers around him. The big concern is the offensive line that returns only one starter from last season but experience is there. The Sooners defense was surprisingly soft last season, finishing 68th in the nation overall. Nine starters are back however so the unit should have major improvements and will likely be the deciding factor in the outcome of the season.
Schedule: The Sooners open the season with a tough game against BYU before hosting Idaho St. and Tulsa and then traveling to Miami, Florida. Oklahoma has the best Big XII schedule of the top three as it has Texas on a neutral field as always, along with three home games and just one road game within the division. Two of the three games against the weaker North are on the road.
Bottom Line: Oklahoma became just the third team in NCAA history to score over 700 points in a season. The scary thing is that it can repeat that again this year. Whether or not that happens could come down to the offensive line and how quickly it comes together. Head coach Bob Stoops has put together a powerhouse but has won only one National Championship as he has lost five straight BCS Bowls and three straight title games.
Betting Forecast: Oklahoma is 13-4-1 ATS as a home chalk the last three seasons. This run could end as the lines are going to be absolutely huge in 2009.
Texas Longhorns 12-1 SU, 9-4 ATS, 6-7 O/U
Summary: Texas felt cheated as it thought it should have had a shot at Missouri in the Big XII Championship but lost the tiebreaker to the Sooners despite beating Oklahoma. A loss at Texas Tech was the Longhorns only setback last season and they will be out for some revenge from anyone who stands in the way. The offense will be scary good after finishing 9th overall last season and returning nine starters this year. It may not be as potent as Oklahoma but it will be close as quarterback Colt McCoy leads the way once again. The defense was a bend don’t break unit last season as it was 51st in overall defense but 18th in scoring defense. Seven starters are back and overall, Texas looks to be more balanced than the Sooners but it is tough to tab the Longhorns at the top spot.
Schedule: Reason being is that the schedule is not friendly for Texas. The Longhorns will have no problem with their four out-of-conference opponents but once Big XII action starts, things are dicey. Not only do they have to take on Oklahoma at a neutral site but three South games are on the road as they travel to Missouri, Oklahoma St. and rival Texas A&M to close the season.
Bottom Line: Texas will be good enough to be able to win those tough road games but it is no guarantee it will happen. Looking at what happened at Texas Tech last season and the trip to Stillwater looks even more difficult. First and foremost, it needs to defeat Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry for a second straight season, something it did in 2005 and 2006. It is a tossup between those two.
Betting Forecast: Texas is 7-3 ATS in non-conference games the last two years. It will be favored huge in all four but expect lopsided wins to get some attention.
Oklahoma St. Cowboys 9-4 SU, 8-4 ATS, 6-6 O/U
Summary: The Cowboys look to be this year’s Texas Tech as they have a lot in place to make a run at the top of the South. Offensively, they were one of the nation’s best last season, averaging 487.7 ypg which was 6th in the country. The playmakers are back led by quarterback Zac Robinson, receiver Dez Bryant and running back Kendall Hunter. The problem last season was a defense that finished 93rd overall and 76th in scoring. New defensive coordinator Bill Young has turned around numerous defenses in the past and he looks to do the same here. The secondary looks to be the weakness and that is not a good thing in this conference. Part of the problem is an insufficient pass rush so getting to the opposing quarterback will help the defensive backfield from the start. It is a longshot but the Cowboys cannot be counted out.
Schedule: Oklahoma St. starts the season with a tough home game against Georgia but the remaining three non-conference games should be no problem at all. A win against the Bulldogs likely means a 7-0 record leading up to the Texas game in Stillwater. After that, the only thing standing in the Cowboys way is a trip to Norman to close out the season.
Bottom Line: Oklahoma St. will be able to match any team around score-for-score but there needs to have some semblance of a defense if it wants to make it to the next level. The Cowboys have not won double-digit games in a season since 1988 and this is definitely one of their best shots to do it. Put a defense on the field and Oklahoma St. could be in prime position for a sleeper national title team.
Betting Forecast: Oklahoma St. has had three straight winning ATS seasons but with all of the hype that could change as it will be overvalued in a lot of spots.
Texas Tech Red Raiders 11-2 SU, 5-5-1 ATS, 7-4 O/U
Summary: Texas Tech made a lot of noise last season as it started the season 10-0 and moved up to #2 in the polls before bowing out against Oklahoma in the second to last game of the year. It was the best season in Red Raiders history and a follow up to that is very unlikely. Quarterback Graham Harrell who threw for 5,111 yards and 45 touchdowns is gone as is his go to receiver Michael Crabtree, a first round NFL selection. Junior Taylor Potts is the new signal caller and he should fit in well as he has been around for three years and has the size and the arm to succeed in this offense. While the offense should be potent once again, the defense will take a step in the wrong direction as both ends and the entire secondary need to be replaced. That is not a good sign given the competition it will be facing.
Schedule: Four of the first five games are against non-conference teams but right in the middle of those is a date at Texas on September 19th and the Longhorns will be out for some payback. Two of the final four games against the rest of the South are at home with Oklahoma St. being the lone road game while a game against Baylor takes place on a neutral field in Arlington.
Bottom Line: Texas Tech will not have the same season as last year but this is still gong to be a very good team. The Red Raiders will be gunning for their 17th consecutive winning season and that will happen without a problem. Capturing a share of the Big XII South like it did last season is not likely however unless they can stun Texas for a second straight year. That just isn’t happing though.
Betting Forecast: Texas Tech is only 26-31 ATS over the last five seasons with no winning ATS years in there. It is no longer a secret so that run should continue.
Baylor Bears 4-8 SU, 8-3 ATS, 6-5 O/U
Summary: Last season was supposed to be a lot better for Baylor and things just did not work out as the Bears had a losing season for the 14th straight season. They started the season 3-3 but failed to close the deal although three losses by an average of 4.3 ppg did not help matters. The one major positive was the emergence of freshman quarterback Robert Griffin who threw for over 2,000 yards while tossing 15 touchdowns and just three interceptions. He also ran for 843 yards and he seems to be the perfect fit in the offense that head coach Art Briles brought over from Houston. Winning this division is just a dream right now but with a very good offense and a defense that returns eight starters, the Bears could be going bowling for the first time since 1994. It may take an upset or two along the way but it is feasible.
Schedule: The Bears open with a tough game at Wake Forest opening weekend before three straight non-conference games all at home against Connecticut, Northwestern St. and Kent St. Big XII action gets under way at Oklahoma but the remaining schedule is not bad. Oklahoma St. and Texas are at home while Texas Tech is on a neutral field to close the season.
Bottom Line: Baylor will need to shore up its defense that has allowed 30 or more ppg in eight of the last 10 seasons. The good news is that one of those seasons it did not was last year although that average came in at 29.3 ppg so there is work to be done. If there is some improvement there and if the newly revamped offensive line can stand up to the challenge, the bowl drought could be over.
Betting Forecast: The Bears are just 3-11 ATS as home dogs since 2005 and they will be in that spot at least twice this season. We could see the good side shine through.
Texas A&M Aggies 4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS, 8-4 O/U
Summary: Texas A&M had 20 straight winning seasons from 1983 through 2002. From 2003 through 2008, it has had only three winning seasons which shows how far this program has fallen. There is light at the end of the tunnel however as the Aggies feel that head coach Mike Sherman is the man to bring them back to prominence. There is a lot that needs to be fixed with this team, namely a defense that has gone from the ‘Wrecking Crew’ to the ‘Reeking Crew’. The Aggies finished an embarrassing 114th in total defense, rushing defense and scoring defense last season but if there is any encouraging aspect of that, there is no where to go but up. The rushing offense also finished 114th in the country so it is fairly obvious that the Aggies need to shore up the line of scrimmage before any thought of a division crown takes place.
Schedule: Any team that plays in the Big XII South is going to have a tough schedule but the Texas A&M slate isn’t that bad all-around. The Aggies do not play a true road game until October 17th as their first six weeks consist of four home games, a neutral site game and a bye week. The problem is that four of the next five games are on the road including Texas Tech and Oklahoma. A home game against Texas ends the year.
Bottom Line: Realistically, Texas A&M could be 5-1 when it heads into Texas Tech. At the same time, it could be 2-4 so this is a very unpredictable team right now. The Aggies are getting more athletic and quicker on defense which is a move in the right direction. There are playmakers on offense so the pieces of the puzzle are getting put into place. The missing elements are those in the trenches.
Betting Forecast: The Aggies have had only one season where they profited as a road dog since 2000, going 8-21 ATS over that span. Based on their road games, that will continue.
s strong as the Big XII South is, the North is just the opposite. There are good teams within the division no doubt but it is unlikely that any team will be able to challenge the top teams in the South as the top team in this division would finish either fourth or fifth in the other division. It looks as though it may be a two-team race in the North between Kansas and Nebraska although Colorado could be a sleeper and even a rebuilding Missouri team should not be discounted. Since 2006, there have been only nine bowl appearances from teams out of the North which comes after five of the six teams made it to a bowl game in 2005.
Kansas Jayhawks 8-5 SU, 7-5 ATS, 8-4 O/U
Summary: The Jayhawks get the edge because of the offense and namely, quarterback Todd Reesing. He was sensational last season as he completed over 66 percent of his passes while throwing 32 touchdowns and just 13 interceptions. Kansas finished 21st in the nation in total offense and 22nd in scoring offense and with seven starters back, it should be just as potent as all of the playmakers are returning. The reason Kansas is not an elite team in this conference is because of the defense. In 2007, the Jayhawks were one of the best defensive units in the country but slipped to 89th overall last season. Seven starters are back so things should improve but just not enough to make a run at the big boys. It may be sufficient in this division though.
Schedule: Kansas only has one road game through the first six weeks of the season as four of its first five games are at friendly Memorial Stadium and also included in there is a bye before Big XII action starts. The Jayhawks play two home games, including Nebraska, and two road games within the division along with a neutral site game. Kansas has to play Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech from the South.
Bottom Line: Kansas has gone from perennial doormat to annual contender and that is because of head coach Mark Mangino who has turned this program around. He sent them to the Orange Bowl two years ago but he has yet to win the big ones against the top dogs in the Big XII as he is 0-9 against Texas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech. He gets a shot at all three this year and we will probably see that record jump to 0-12.
Betting Forecast: Kansas is 16-6 ATS the last six years as a home favorite. It will be in that role four times this season and that record should improve even more.
Nebraska Cornhuskers 9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS, 7-6 O/U
Summary: We may be seeing the reemergence of Nebraska football. After head coach Bill Callahan went 27-22 in his four seasons, he was replaced by Bo Pelini who led the Huskers to a 9-4 record and a bowl win. Pelini is known for his defense as he was the defensive coordinator at LSU for three seasons before coming back to Lincoln where he was the DC in 2003 when Nebraska allowed just 14.5 ppg. In 2007, the Huskers allowed 477 ypg, the worst in school history but they improved that by 127 yards last season and should be even better this year. The issue this season will be on offense where the quarterback, running back and receivers all need to be replaced. Nebraska hopes that the defense can carry the load for a while until the inexperienced offense can come together.
Schedule: The non-conference schedule contains three relatively easy home games as well as a tough one at Virginia Tech where the Huskers will be out for some revenge. The Big XII schedule is not all that bad with two of the three games against the South taking place at home with those being Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Three of the five North games are on the road including the big one at Kansas.
Bottom Line: Nebraska has a very good shot at this division if and only if the offense can come around. It has five weeks before conference action gets underway and that should be ample time to see how this team is able to move the ball. The ‘Blackshirts’ of years past are not back yet but Pelini, along with his brother Carl, are moving back in that direction as this defense will once again reign supreme in the very near future.
Betting Forecast: Pelini went 0-1 ATS as a home underdog last season but with a defense that will be improving, the Huskers could be good takes in those spots this year.
Colorado Buffaloes 5-7 SU, 4-7 ATS, 4-7 O/U
Summary: The Dan Hawkins era did not begin well with an embarrassing home loss to Montana St. in his very first game as head coach. His team went 2-10 that year but he has gone a respectable 11-14 since then including a trip to the 2007 Independence Bowl. It is now time for Hawkins to make big improvements or he could be looking at his final days in Boulder. The offense was pretty anemic last season as it finished 95th overall and 100th in scoring. The offensive line and running backs are the strength so expect to see more power football from the Buffaloes. The defense is bringing back just four starters and the entire defensive line needs to be replaced. The secondary should be good which is important in this conference. If the defense can make big strides then Colorado does have an opportunity to make a move toward the top.
Schedule: Colorado starts the season with its annual game against Colorado St. before facing Toledo and West Virginia on the road sandwiched around a home game against Wyoming. The Buffaloes open the conference slate at Texas before returning home to take on Kansas the next week. Three of the five North games are at home while the other two games in the South are at Oklahoma St. and at home against Texas A&M.
Bottom Line: This is a very young team as there are only 13 seniors listed on the entire roster with only five of those being projected starters. While that may sound horrific, the good news is that a lot of young players got playing time last season because of the numerous injuries that took place. There are still a lot of lingering questions, most surrounding the defense, that need to be answered.
Betting Forecast: Colorado is 14-21 ATS under Hawkins with all three years being non-profitable. I think we can see a reversal as people will once again be down on Colorado.
Missouri Tigers 10-4 SU, 5-8 ATS, 7-6 O/U
Summary: Missouri has put together terrific back-to-back seasons with 22 combined wins but the run could be over. Only nine starters are back overall and there were big hits on both sides. The Tigers need to retool on offense following its rankings of 8th in the nation in total offense and 6th in scoring offense. Losing quarterback Chase Daniel is a huge hit but the Tigers are also without All-American receiver Jeremy Maclin and All-American tight end Chase Coffman and those two losses are arguably worse as a new quarterback can adjust quickly if he has proven pass catchers around him. Also gone is offensive coordinator Dave Christensen who took the head coaching job at Wyoming. The offense is very young with over half of the half of the starters being sophomores. Defensively, the Tigers lost seven All-Big XII players and that is tough to overcome.
Schedule: Missouri starts off with a neutral site game against Illinois in St. Louis before hosting Bowling Green and Furman, The Tigers close the non-conference season with a game at Nevada. The Big XII schedule is not that bad as of the eight games, only three are true road games and two of those are winnable at Colorado and Kansas St. From the South, they are at Oklahoma St. but get Texas at home for homecoming.
Bottom Line: It looks like a rebuilding season is in store for Missouri following two special years. Head coach Gary Pinkel has put together four straight winning seasons and four straight bowl games including three wins. It may take his best coaching job ever to get the Tigers back to the top of the division and to achieve a winning record for that matter. The defense was horrible last year and won’t be much better now.
Betting Forecast: Missouri is 18-11 ATS in non-conference games under Pinkel but look for that to reverse itself out as all of those are early this season.
Iowa St. Cyclones 2-10 SU, 5-6 ATS, 8-3 O/U
Summary: Iowa St. could be in store for a very good season if it can somehow find a way to stop the opponent. The Cyclones have finished in the basement of the North Division for three straight years and the only way they will come up for air is if they can win on the road. They have dropped 17 straight games on the road so it is pretty obvious what they need to do. The offense finished 44th in the nation last year and with nine starters back, the unit should be even better. Scoring is not the problem however as the defense allowed 35.8 ppg last season, 110th in the country. Head coach Paul Rhodes is a former defensive coordinator at Pittsburgh and Auburn and he had success at both as did his new DC Wally Burnham in his eight years at South Florida. Iowa St. will get better on that side of the ball but we don’t know how much.
Schedule: Iowa St. has arguably the easiest schedule in the entire conference. The toughest non-conference game is against rival Iowa but that one is at home this season. The other three non-conference games are against North Dakota St., Army and Kent, the last being the only one on the road. In the Big XII, the Cyclones miss Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech from the South.
Bottom Line: It would be easy to put Iowa St. back in the basement once again but it looks as though progress is being made already even though a game has yet to be played. The offense will be solid and the hiring of Tom Herman, who set records at Rice the last two years, as offensive coordinator will make it even better. A win or two on the road may mean the first bowl game since 2005.
Betting Forecast: After a 1-9 ATS run as a home underdog from 2000-2003, the Cyclones are 10-6 ATS since then and could surprise many in that role this season.
Kansas St. Wildcats 5-7 SU, 4-7 ATS, 8-3 O/U
Summary: It’s hard to believe that Kansas St. was in the fiesta Bowl just six years ago. Since then, the Wildcats have had only one winning season and saw the greatest coach the program has seen retire only to come back this season. Legendary Bill Snyder is back on the sidelines in hopes of returning the program back to its glory days of the late ’90’s. It isn’t going to happen overnight and he may not make it happen at all depending on the length of his stay. The Wildcats of old were about defense and that is something that has been lacking for the last five years. Last season, Kansas St. finished 117th in total defense and 106th or worse in the other three main categories. The turnaround must begin with that unit. The offense is not looking much better as there are big holes at quarterback and running back.
Schedule: As is the case every year in Manhattan, the Wildcats are playing a soft schedule outside the conference. They face two FCS teams, Massachusetts and Tennessee Tech while also playing La-Lafayette. They do have a challenging game at UCLA as well. Kansas St. only has three true conference road games but two of those are at Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Getting three North home games definitely helps.
Bottom Line: Snyder did it once and he can certainly do it again but unfortunately he is starting from scratch once again. Former head coach Ron Prince, who lasted only three years, is being held responsible for the downward spiral of the program but truth be told, it was going downhill in Snyder’s last two seasons so Prince should not be totally blamed. Snyder is 3-23 lifetime against teams ranked in the top ten.
Betting Forecast: After a 4-0 ATS run as home dogs under Snyder, Kansas St. went 2-6 ATS under Prince. Even Snyder won’t be able to turn that back around.
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One reply on “Fargo’s Big Twelve Conference Football Preview”
I am on the Texas bandwagon, but this is certainly not going to be a cakewalk as the Big 12 is loaded with godd solid teams. Teams like Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma St will try to get in their way.