A Simple Way to Pick Winning Football Selections
Bettors are always looking for that sure win system to pick winning selections in football. Usually they’ll find something that seems to work for a few games, then after two straight losers they’ll jump off of it like a sinking ship.
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Many systems usually don’t work long-term because oddsmakers will make adjustments for things and reduce the edge that sports bettors have.
However, here is a theory, not a system that will produce more winners than losers and never go out of style.
Before I continue, the biggest key is to KNOW THE TEAM that you are about to bet on with this theory. By that I mean they should be a team that you generally follow from week to week. When I say follow, I mean you just watch an occasional game, see some highlights and just get a general feel for how their games turn out. You don’t even have to analyze box scores in depth or know small details like how their starting right tackle matches up against opposing defensive lines.
Ok, so enough with the meaningless words, what is the theory?
It is to know the role that a team is good and bad in. It seems simple but is difficult to follow because it requires the bettor to go against recent results in some cases. A perfect example of this theory is Notre Dame this year. They are a good team to fade as a favorite of almost any size and a good team to back as an underdog. The reason for this is that they play down to their opponent and allow them to hang around in games, even though the Irish arguably have more talent then their underdog opponents.
In addition, Notre Dame has had a tendency of playing up to their competition, which has resulted in them getting point spread covers against USC and Pittsburgh. Basically there are teams that are great in roles such as a big underdog but bad in the role of a favorite expected to win.
I also have followed Navy very closely over the last seven years or so. They have been a great point spread team against the toughest teams on their schedule and have letdown performances, especially at home, as a big favorite, especially before big games. The Middies also routinely play games over the total against smaller conferences with pass happy offenses.
They have had very high scoring games with teams like North Texas and SMU over the last few years.
The hardest part of this theory to follow it when others wouldn’t. Generally speaking you will get good value because the public will looking to go the opposite of the team you are selecting. How many times have we seen teams as a big underdog string together a few good performances, only to fall flat on their face in their first game as a decent size home favorite?
The Big 10, ACC, and Big 12 Conferences have seen numerous games have outcomes like that this season. We also see this happening a lot in the NFL. A team like Arizona has done great as an underdog, only to go home and fall flat on their face as a big favorite. Using this theory will help explain results that the betting public has a hard time explaining.
Bottom line, betting with the tendencies of a team that you follow relatively closely is a great theory to produce long-term profits.
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One reply on “Handicapping Week 12 College Football”
Handicapping college football is far tougher than the NFL games. Emotional rivalries and home field crowds have a far greater impact in the college ranks than in the Pros.