MLB Betting – Brewers vs Reds Preview & Pick
Date: Friday, September 16, 2011
Venue: Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati, OH
Broadcast: FSWI, FSOH
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds Betting Lines from Sportsbook.com
Money Line: OFF
Over/Under: OFF
Milwaukee Brewers (87-63 through September 14)
Randy Wolf (12-9, 3.44)
Though the St. Louis Cardinals aren’t fully going away, the Milwaukee Brewers remain firmly in control of the National League Central. Still, they have a few minor demons to exorcise. For one, they’d lost six of eight through Wednesday’s action. Secondly, they’d like to prove they can win on the road before the playoffs arrive. The Brew Crew’s 52-23 home record has carried them; their 35-40 away mark leaves plenty to be desired.
Randy Wolf will try to reverse the losing road trend at Cincinnati on Friday night. For all the fanfare Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo and Shaun Marcum get, Wolf has been the rotation’s unsung hero this season. He’s provided seven quality starts in his last 10 tries.
Wolf has fared well against the Reds in his career. Over 22 starts, he’s 10-4 with a 3.40 ERA and 136 strikeouts over 140.1 innings.
Cincinnati Reds (73-76 through September 14)
Bronson Arroyo (8-11, 5.28)
2011 is officially a lost season for the Reds, last year’s NL Central champs. Their obituary will read: “couldn’t pitch.” Cincy is the majors’ seventh highest-scoring team and is fifth in homers but is 23rd in ERA.
Guys who usually got it done – like Bronson Arroyo – haven’t this season. In Arroyo’s case, it feels like 2011 was a case of an overrated guy finally getting what many people thought was coming to him for years. Arroyo has been a good innings eater but he isn’t overpowering and he’s so darned hittable, so it’s not a huge surprise that he’s been rocked this year.
His control is sharp as ever; he has just 40 walks in 175.2 innings. But Arroyo has allowed an MLB-worst 40 homers on the year – seven more than any other pitcher. Opponents are betting .293 off him.
The pick:
Arroyo is 11-7 against the Brewers all-time and he’s actually 2-0 against them with a 2.70 ERA this year. However, both those starts came in April, when he wasn’t pitching nearly as poorly. Now that the gopher balls are out of control, I think the Brewers should smash Arroyo on Friday. Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun and Rickie Weeks all have multiple homers off Arroyo in their career and might add to their totals.
Brewers vs Reds prediction: Brewers 6, Reds 4
