Author: Dave Golokhov AKA Vegas Dave

Venue/Stadium: Boone Pickens Stadium

Time/Date: 3:35 p.m. Eastern, October 29
College Football Odds from Bodog
Moneyline: Oklahoma State -550
Spread (ATS): Oklahoma State -14.5
Over/Under: 70.5

The Oklahoma State Cowboys shouldn’t sweat bullets this weekend. They’ve already shown what they can do when they host the Baylor Bears, even a Baylor team with playmaking quarterback Robert Griffin III. Because of the Big 12 Conference’s shift from 12 teams to 10, the conference slate has shifted this season. A lot of the conference games played within the league’s 2010 division format (in the six-team Big 12 North Division and the six-team Big 12 South) are being replicated this season. Teams that hosted an in-division rival last year are once again being given the right to play in their own backyard. This is what will kill Baylor in the 2011 renewal of what used to be a Big 12 South game.

Last year, Baylor went to Stillwater, Oklahoma, to tackle Oklahoma State, and the results were one-sided. The Cowboys dismantled the Bears by a 55-28 score. Oklahoma State rang up 725 yards, 435 in the air and an equally-imposing (if not numerically identical) 290 yards rushing. Oklahoma State quarterback Brandon Weeden hit 34 of 42 passes for three touchdowns without an interception. Two Oklahoma State receivers, Justin Blackmon and Bo Bowling, both exceeded 100 receiving yards. The Cowboys scored at least 10 points in all four quarters and at least 14 points in the final three stanzas. OSU led by a 41-7 score late in the third quarter before Baylor’s thoroughly pulverized offense produced three entirely cosmetic and utterly meaningless touchdowns. Oklahoma State’s lead was never lower than 27 points for the game’s final 29 minutes and 39 seconds. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

With all of that as prelude, is there any realistic chance that Baylor can create a truly dramatic and competitive game that is still undecided with six to eight minutes left in the fourth quarter? It’s doubtful. It’s true that Griffin, Baylor’s gifted quarterback, has receiver Kendall Wright in the fold. Wright has been enjoying a dynamic year on the edges, catching 55 passes for 757 yards. He’s on pace to exceed 1,000 receiving yards in the midst of a stellar senior season. He should make his fair share of plays. However, once you get past Wright, there’s the small matter of a running game – Baylor doesn’t have one – and this other nagging thing called defense. Baylor doesn’t have that, either. Baylor got smoked 55-28 by Texas A&M last week, the same score as last year’s game at Oklahoma State. This is just not a team that can stop a veteran OSU offense, which brings its primary playmakers (Weeden at quarterback, Blackmon at receiver) back to the dance for this duel. Take the Cowboys in a rout.

College Football Betting Pick: Oklahoma State

Venue/Stadium: Amon Carter Stadium

Time/Date: 8:05 p.m. Eastern, October 28
College Football Odds from Bodog
Moneyline: -480
Spread (ATS): TCU -13
Over/Under: 56

There’s going to be a different flavor surrounding this season’s matchup between BYU – the team that wanted to go to the Big 12, but won’t (at least for the time being) – and TCU, the team that succeeded in moving to the conference of the South Central Plains.

Unlike in recent years, the two teams face off in a non-conference battle. BYU is still an Independent, while TCU competes for a Mountain West title one more time before heading to the Big 12 Conference. TCU has absolutely owned the Cougars over the last three years, outscoring BYU 101-17 in three straight wins.

This season is a different look for both teams. TCU’s defense has not been as robust as one might expect, while BYU has tabbed backup Riley Nelson as its starting quarterback, selecting a field general who is more dangerous with his legs than his throwing arm. BYU’s offense had struggled, with wins being forged largely by the defense until Nelson took over for opening-day starter Jake Heaps. In the first four games with Heaps at the helm, BYU averaged just 16 points per game. Including the game that Nelson won late against Utah State, BYU is averaging 38 points per game in its last four outings. Not only has Nelson brought a new look to the offense, but the Cougars discovered a run game on the feet of Michael Alisa, a converted linebacker who played running back in high school. With Alisa’s emergence, BYU has averaged 265 rushing yards per game in the last three games, and the Cougar offense seems to be peaking at the right time for this matchup. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Even though TCU’s defense has been a bit softer than usual, the Horned Frogs’ offense has been a balanced, well-oiled machine. With Ed Wesley at full strength, BYU will have to account for TCU’s unique combination of speed and power at running back found in Wesley, Matthew Tucker, and Waymon James. The Frogs average 217 rushing yards per game on the legs of these three. Interestingly, the two rushing defenses in this game are nearly identical for BYU (123.25 rushing yards allowed per game) and TCU (123.71).

TCU’s three-man committee at running back was a known quantity before the season started. Where the Frogs’ offense has picked up is the emergence of Casey Pachall as a legitimate Division I passer. Pachall is completing 70 percent of his passes while sporting a 17 to 4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His accuracy has made TCU’s offense a scary picture for defenses, creating enough of a passing game to spread out defenses and set up the running game. TCU has been able to spread out linebackers and get only six or seven defenders in the tackle box; that’s when the running came can be particularly effective. It will be very hard for BYU to score points, and it will be just as hard for the Cougars to stop TCU’s offense. This game should not be particularly close when the fourth quarter rolls around.

College Football Betting Pick: TCU