Month: May 2014

UFC 173 Preview and Picks

UFC 173 Preview and Picks For a Stacked Card in Vegas

The UFC has put together another typically stellar card for this weekend in Vegas. The Bantamweight Title will be on the line, Dan Henderson will be looking to cement his legacy with a win over the undefeated Daniel Cormier, a pair of Welterweight will be looking to keep their names in the Title picture and a pair of fights in the lower weight classes will get us primed for what should be three quality bouts to close out the evening.

UFC 173: Barao vs. Dillashaw
Date: May 24, 2014
Time: 10pm ET/7pm PT
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Broadcast: Pay-per-view, Fox Sports 1, UFC Fight Pass
UFC Odds From Bovada

Main Card

Renan Barao (32-1-0): -800
T.J. Dillashaw (9-2-0): +575

TJ Dillishaw steps in for injured Raphael Assuncao for the opportunity of his career – a title shot against Renan Barao – a fighter that hasn’t lost since April, 2005. You will search long and hard to find anyone giving Dillishaw a chance in this fight – me included.

Barao is an absolute nightmare to face – not only does he have a black belt in jiu-jitsu, his varied striking is some of the best in the organization. He can hit you and hurt you with both hands, both legs and both knees. He can and will do damage standing and IF you can get him to the ground (that’s a huge IF), you will be dealing with a fighter as comfortable looking for a submission as he is knocking you out.

Dillishaw has skills – don’t get me wrong. He is a former NCAA Division 1 wrestler that has never been taken down in his MMA career. His conditioning is top tier and his striking has improved immensely over the last couple of years. Dillishaw has to hope to be one of the few that can drag Barao down to the mat and control him there – I don’t see that happening.

TJ Dillishaw is a tough guy but Barao is on a completely different level at this point in time. Nobody has touched him in nearly 10 years! Dillishaw’s improved striking will help drag this fight out a little bit but in the end, standing and banging with Barao will prove to be his undoing. Nobody has hung with Renan Barao the last decade; I don’t expect Dillishaw to either!

Pick: Renan Barao -800

Daniel Cormier (14-0-0): -900
Dan Henderson (30-11-0): +650

The co-main event of the evening may be more intriguing than the main event – undefeated Daniel Cormier will try to knock off the legend Dan Henderson. Henderson will bring his patented right hand to the Octagon as well as a fading set of wrestling skills. Hendo looks to be in tough however against a fighter with a similar skillset but a younger, slightly more athletic makeup.

Cormier will have a huge size advantage as he makes his second appearance as a Light Heavyweight after fighting at Heavyweight for the bulk of his career. Cormier may also have the wrestling advantage against his 43 year old opponent.

While I think Henderson makes it all three rounds in this fight, I see him getting frustrated with the smothering style of Cormier. Expect Cormier to press Henderson against the fence and dirty box his way to a decision win. It certainly won’t be pretty but it should be another victory for a still-undefeated Cormier.
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Pick: Daniel Cormier -900

Jake Ellenberger (29-7-0): +190
Robbie Lawler (22-10-0): -225

A pair of knockout artists throw down in the third match of the pay-per-view card Saturday. Fighters looking to stay relevant in the Welterweight division square off – someone is likely to have their night end early in this one.

18 of Lawler’s 22 wins have come by knockout while 18 of Ellenberger’s 29 wins have come the same way – no reason to think differently about the outcome of this fight! Ellenberger didn’t look great in his last fight against Rory MacDonald while Lawler has won three of his last four fights – the only loss over that span coming to Johny Hendricks for the vacated Title – there is certainly no shame in that!

Lawler, assuming that he has gotten over his most recent loss is the better all around fighter in this one with a whole lot more to prove. Take him to knock Ellenberger out in the second round.

Pick: Robbie Lawler -225

Takeya Mizugaki (19-7-2): -175
Francisco Rivera (10-2-0): +150

Bantamweights take to the Octagon looking to make a little noise in the division when Takeya Mizugaki who is on a four fight win streak takes on Francisco Rivera whose six fight win streak came to a halt when he tested positive for a banned substance last time out after his KO win against Ronald Delorme.

While Rivera’s recent run has been impressive, he has gotten it done against lesser competition – the only time he has stepped up Rivera has been beaten down. Mizugaki on the other hand has been consistently facing top competition – two of his last four wins have come against top 15 guys.

Mizugaki’s experience over top tier guys will be the difference in this one – Rivera’s few steps up in competition haven’t gone so well – expect more of the same Saturday.

Pick: Takeya Mizugaki -175

James Krause (20-5-0): +145
Jamie Varner (21-9-1): -175

Lightweights kick off the pay-per-view card Saturday when James Krause takes on former WEC Lightweight champ Jamie Varner. Both fighters will be looking to climb up the ladder in the UFC hopefully securing a top 15 or even top 10 spot with a win. Both fighters are coming off losses and both need a strong rebound just to remain relevant in arguably the UFC’s toughest division.

Varner has lost three of his last four fights heading into Saturday night’s action while Krause’s only loss in the UFC came in controversial fashion – due to a possible low blow on a body kick against Bobby Green. Krause however brings with him an all-around skill set – he is as good on the ground as he is standing

Varner looks like the better fighter ahead of Saturday night’s showdown – he will have the experience edge against top competition and the reality that he may be fighting for his job in the organization. But with desperation comes carelessness – look tor Krause to jump on a few opportunities Varner gives up.

James Krauss and Jamie Varner are close on paper but the pressure in this fight is squarely on Jamie Varner. I think it will be too much as a care-free James Krauss posts the biggest win of his career.

Pick: James Krause +145

Preliminary Card

Michael Chiesa (10-1-0): -135 vs. Francisco Trinaldo (14-3-0): +115
Pick: Michael Chiesa -135

Tony Ferguson (14-3-0): -270 vs. Katsunori Kikuno (22-5-2): +230
Pick: Tony Ferguson -270

Chico Camus (14-4-0): +295 vs. Chris Holdsworth (5-0-0): -360
Pick: Chris Holdsworth -360

Mitch Clarke (10-2-0): +275 vs. Al Iaquinta (8-2-1): -335
Pick: Al Iaquinta -335

Fight Pass Card

Anthony Njokuani (16-7-0): -225 vs. Vinc Pichel (8-1-0): +190
Pick: Vinc Pichel +190

Aaron Phillips (5-0-0): +130 vs. Sam Sicilia (12-4-0): -150
Pick: Sam Sicilia -150

Jingliang Li (8-2-0): +130 vs. David Michaud (7-0-0): -150
Pick: +130

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