Month: February 2013

Duke vs Virginia Handicapping

Venue/ Stadium: John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, VA
Time/Date: 9 PM EST Thursday, February 28, 2013
NCAAB Odds From: BetOnline
Moneyline: OFF
Spread: Virginia -1
Over/Under:  129

No. 3 Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Cavaliers Preview

Duke has won 2 straight, 8 of their last 9 games, and if they finish the season strong they can snag a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Virginia snapped their 2 game losing streak in their last game and they look to be in good position for the Big Dance with 19 wins and 9-5 in ACC play, but they can lock up their bid if they can beat Duke tonight. NCAAB lines have Virginia as 1-point home favorites with a total of 129.

In their last games Duke beat Boston College 89-68 and Virginia beat Georgia Tech 82-54.

On the season Duke is 15-12 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 14-12 and Virginia is 16-7-1 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 10-6.

Virginia is 16-1 at home this season and Duke is 4-3 on the road.

The Cavaliers have won 15 straight home games, but only 1 of those wins came against a ranked team and they have not beat Duke in the last 6 seasons. The Blue Devils have won 17 of their last 18 games facing Virginia.

Virginia will have to play good all-around defense, as the Blue Devils can score inside and outside and they are a deep team. They are led by F Mason Plumlee (17.5 ppg 10.7 rpg), who has 16 double doubles this season, and G Seth Curry (16.8 ppg). Also, freshman G has averaged 22 ppg in his last 2 games.

The Cavaliers are one of the lowest scoring teams in the ACC averaging 65 ppg, but in their last 6 games they are averaging 74 ppg on 50.9% shooting.

Virginia is led by G Joe Harris (16.6 ppg), who is averaging 20.9 ppg in his last 9 games, but he has struggled against Duke in the last couple of seasons. One player that must play well is FW Akil Mitchell (12.6 ppg 8.7 rpg), as he must give the Cavaliers some inside scoring and he also has to play good D on Plumlee in the paint.

Mitchell will also need help on the boards, as he is the leading rebounder while the 2nd leading rebounder is Harris and he is a guard. The Cavaliers only rank 283rd in the nation in rebounds per game.

In some betting trends for this ACC match up Duke is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, and they have an Under record of 5-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.

Virginia is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, and they have an Over record of 6-1 in their last 7 games.

Jason’s Pick: Duke is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the Cavaliers in Virginia and not sure why the Cavs are the favorite tonight. Duke will not only cover, but they will win as well.

#2 Gonzaga Bulldogs (27-2) vs BYU Cougars (20-9)

Thursday February 28
Marriott Center – Provo, UT
11:00PM

Moneyline:  No ML currently listed
Spread:  Gonzaga -6
O/U:  147

Gonzaga

That is not a mistake, the Gonzaga Bulldogs are the second ranked team in the nation.  They are undefeated in West Coast Conference and have rattled off 10 wins in a row since they last lost at Butler.  The first of those wins was a home blowout of BYU by 20 points.  With Indiana and Michigan already losing this week there is the very real prospect that this “mid major” from the WCC could be the top ranked team in the nation.

It is no fluke either.  Center Kelly Olynyk is one of the most productive bigs in the nation this year averaging 17 points and 7 board which don’t blow you away but when you factor in that he plays just 25 minutes per game – they are just awesome.  I also love their backcourt of Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell.  Neither are big but they make smart plays more often than not and can shoot.  Senior forward Elias Harris provides veteran leadership and is hungry too.

Gonzaga is a good bet – 15-11 ATS.  A look at their conference results shows only two games where the spread has been as close as the -6 they are getting right now.  Both were victories, one at home and one on the road, while being ATS losses.  When St. Mary’s pushed the Zags it wasn’t a total surprise, this one might be.

BYU

This game is a huge opportunity for the Cougars.  They have already notched 20 victories but none are of the signature variety.  They are in third place in the WCC and are 0-3 against the top two teams – Gonzaga and St. Mary’s.  A win over the Zags would punch their ticket for sure and the Marriott Center, which is an underrated place to play, should be rocking on Thursday night.  There will be electricity in the air.

The Cougars have some nice headliners but not nearly as much depth as the Zags.  Guard Tyler Haws is one of the more unsung players in the nation.  He is 11th in scoring, part of a very small group of players averaging more than 20ppg.  Power forward Brandon Davies received attention a couple of years ago for an honour code violation and has evolved to become a very effective power forward, averaging 18 points and 7 rebounds per game.  After those two regular production is spotty.

In their first game against Gonzaga the Cougars were 10 point dogs and lost by 20.  A similar doubling seems very likely unless they can use the homecourt advantage and some great shooting to press the Zags.  If they can keep it close maybe the Zags makes a mistake.  They might be number 1 next week but they aren’t there yet.  Can they keep it together.

Spread Pick:  Gonzaga -6
O/U Pick:   Under
Score Prediction:  Gonzaga 80 – BYU 63