Month: October 2011

Mississippi Rebels (2-5, 0-4 SEC) vs. #23 Auburn Tigers (5-3, 3-2 SEC)

Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn AL
Saturday, October 29, 7:00 pm EST
NCAA Odds from Sportsbook.com:
MoneyLine: Ole Miss +400, Auburn -500
Spread: Ole Miss +13, Auburn -13
Over/Under: 51

It says a lot about the SEC when the Auburn Tigers can have three losses – and two conference losses – and still be ranked in the Top 25. The Tigers have lost to some good teams, so Ole Miss probably shouldn’t take much solace from the “Ls” on Auburn’s slate.

The Ole Miss Rebels are just not a very good football team. Granted, they gave Arkansas a scare last weekend (the Razorbacks held on, 29-24) but that’s the first time the Rebs have looked even remotely impressive against a good team. The Rebels QB position, which has been flip-flopping between juniors Randall Mackey and Zack Stoudt, seems to finally have Mackey entrenched as the starter. Mackey had a strong performance against the Hogs last week, going for 219 yards and two TDs in a losing cause. The Rebels will need Mackey to re-create a lot more magic if they are to have any chance this Saturday night in Auburn.

The Tigers are coming off an embarrassing 45-10 loss to the LSU Tigers, but LSU has been beating most everyone in that style in 2011. Auburn is a pretty good team once you make peace with the fact it certainly isn’t the squad that won the National Championship with wunderkind QB Cam Newton a year ago. This Auburn team rotates around its running game. Starter Michael Dyer has a very solid 812 yards and eight TDs on the season, he should crack 1,000 yards before all is said and done. Back-up Onterio McCalebb provides some speed and quickness off the bench, with 387 yards and a healthy 5.6 yards per carry average.

Auburn leans on its running game even more lately because of two realities: firstly, stud WR Emory Blake has been out for the past several weeks with a nagging foot injury, he is still listed as “Questionable” for this weekend. Second, Tigers head coach Gene Chizik recently benched starting QB Barrett Trotter in favor of more scrambling-minded Clint Moseley. This certainly makes the Tigers more one-dimensional and while that can burn you against an LSU or Alabama, Ole Miss is probably fledgling enough that it won’t matter.

Starting DE Ladarius Owens is also on the shelf for Auburn, but that is no excuse for the defense’s poor play. The unit gave up 45 points last week and only rank 75^th in the nation in total defense – out of character for the Auburn football identity. It is entirely possible, however, that the Rebels are the ointment that get the Tigers’ defense back on track. If the “D” can inhibit Mackey from making plays with his athleticism, they stand a very good chance of beating Ole Miss soundly. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

It seems like Ole Miss is in perennial rebuild mode. It has surely been a struggle for the pigskin-mad Mississippians and the fix likely won’t come this week in Jordan-Hare Stadium. Aside from recent flashes of life out of Mackey, the Ole Miss offense has been miserable (the Rebs rank 107^th in both passing and rushing) and the defense, while stout at times, will probably yield a lot of rushing yardage to Dyer, McCalebb and Moseley. It will be a great start for Ole Miss just to get a similar effort this week that it did in the Arkansas game, and to just see what happens from there.

For Auburn’s part, it must ensure that it doesn’t get caught looking past the Rebels. It is still a conference game with potentially broad implications. And in all honesty, that is probably the only scenario where the Tigers lose to the visiting Rebels this Saturday night.

Score Prediction: Auburn 35, Ole Miss 13
Over/Under Prediction: 48

Venue/Stadium: Boone Pickens Stadium

Time/Date: 3:35 p.m. Eastern, October 29
College Football Odds from Bodog
Moneyline: Oklahoma State -550
Spread (ATS): Oklahoma State -14.5
Over/Under: 70.5

The Oklahoma State Cowboys shouldn’t sweat bullets this weekend. They’ve already shown what they can do when they host the Baylor Bears, even a Baylor team with playmaking quarterback Robert Griffin III. Because of the Big 12 Conference’s shift from 12 teams to 10, the conference slate has shifted this season. A lot of the conference games played within the league’s 2010 division format (in the six-team Big 12 North Division and the six-team Big 12 South) are being replicated this season. Teams that hosted an in-division rival last year are once again being given the right to play in their own backyard. This is what will kill Baylor in the 2011 renewal of what used to be a Big 12 South game.

Last year, Baylor went to Stillwater, Oklahoma, to tackle Oklahoma State, and the results were one-sided. The Cowboys dismantled the Bears by a 55-28 score. Oklahoma State rang up 725 yards, 435 in the air and an equally-imposing (if not numerically identical) 290 yards rushing. Oklahoma State quarterback Brandon Weeden hit 34 of 42 passes for three touchdowns without an interception. Two Oklahoma State receivers, Justin Blackmon and Bo Bowling, both exceeded 100 receiving yards. The Cowboys scored at least 10 points in all four quarters and at least 14 points in the final three stanzas. OSU led by a 41-7 score late in the third quarter before Baylor’s thoroughly pulverized offense produced three entirely cosmetic and utterly meaningless touchdowns. Oklahoma State’s lead was never lower than 27 points for the game’s final 29 minutes and 39 seconds. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

With all of that as prelude, is there any realistic chance that Baylor can create a truly dramatic and competitive game that is still undecided with six to eight minutes left in the fourth quarter? It’s doubtful. It’s true that Griffin, Baylor’s gifted quarterback, has receiver Kendall Wright in the fold. Wright has been enjoying a dynamic year on the edges, catching 55 passes for 757 yards. He’s on pace to exceed 1,000 receiving yards in the midst of a stellar senior season. He should make his fair share of plays. However, once you get past Wright, there’s the small matter of a running game – Baylor doesn’t have one – and this other nagging thing called defense. Baylor doesn’t have that, either. Baylor got smoked 55-28 by Texas A&M last week, the same score as last year’s game at Oklahoma State. This is just not a team that can stop a veteran OSU offense, which brings its primary playmakers (Weeden at quarterback, Blackmon at receiver) back to the dance for this duel. Take the Cowboys in a rout.

College Football Betting Pick: Oklahoma State

Venue/Stadium: Amon Carter Stadium

Time/Date: 8:05 p.m. Eastern, October 28
College Football Odds from Bodog
Moneyline: -480
Spread (ATS): TCU -13
Over/Under: 56

There’s going to be a different flavor surrounding this season’s matchup between BYU – the team that wanted to go to the Big 12, but won’t (at least for the time being) – and TCU, the team that succeeded in moving to the conference of the South Central Plains.

Unlike in recent years, the two teams face off in a non-conference battle. BYU is still an Independent, while TCU competes for a Mountain West title one more time before heading to the Big 12 Conference. TCU has absolutely owned the Cougars over the last three years, outscoring BYU 101-17 in three straight wins.

This season is a different look for both teams. TCU’s defense has not been as robust as one might expect, while BYU has tabbed backup Riley Nelson as its starting quarterback, selecting a field general who is more dangerous with his legs than his throwing arm. BYU’s offense had struggled, with wins being forged largely by the defense until Nelson took over for opening-day starter Jake Heaps. In the first four games with Heaps at the helm, BYU averaged just 16 points per game. Including the game that Nelson won late against Utah State, BYU is averaging 38 points per game in its last four outings. Not only has Nelson brought a new look to the offense, but the Cougars discovered a run game on the feet of Michael Alisa, a converted linebacker who played running back in high school. With Alisa’s emergence, BYU has averaged 265 rushing yards per game in the last three games, and the Cougar offense seems to be peaking at the right time for this matchup. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Even though TCU’s defense has been a bit softer than usual, the Horned Frogs’ offense has been a balanced, well-oiled machine. With Ed Wesley at full strength, BYU will have to account for TCU’s unique combination of speed and power at running back found in Wesley, Matthew Tucker, and Waymon James. The Frogs average 217 rushing yards per game on the legs of these three. Interestingly, the two rushing defenses in this game are nearly identical for BYU (123.25 rushing yards allowed per game) and TCU (123.71).

TCU’s three-man committee at running back was a known quantity before the season started. Where the Frogs’ offense has picked up is the emergence of Casey Pachall as a legitimate Division I passer. Pachall is completing 70 percent of his passes while sporting a 17 to 4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His accuracy has made TCU’s offense a scary picture for defenses, creating enough of a passing game to spread out defenses and set up the running game. TCU has been able to spread out linebackers and get only six or seven defenders in the tackle box; that’s when the running came can be particularly effective. It will be very hard for BYU to score points, and it will be just as hard for the Cougars to stop TCU’s offense. This game should not be particularly close when the fourth quarter rolls around.

College Football Betting Pick: TCU

Kansas Jayhawks vs Texas Longhorns

Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium – Austin, TX
Saturday October 29Moneyline:  Texas -7200, Kansas +3250
Spread (ATS): Texas -28.5
Over/Under: 64.5
Odds courtesy of 5Dimes

Kansas

There is a very good chance that Kansas is the worst team within the BCS conferences this year.  They may have two wins but all five of their losses have been by 11 points or more and in every single one of them they have given up more than 45 points.  I am not sure what the reasonable expectations were for coach Turner Gill but he is not coming close to them.

I may have been underselling how bad the Jayhawks are on defense above.  They are dead  last in yards allowed and points allowed per game with an astonishing 50.  That’s a FG worse than New Mexico by comparison.  The Kansas program used to be competing in the Big 12 but it has really bottomed out over the last few years.  Texas, even in down cycle is still favoured by more than 4 TDs.

Kansas has not beaten the Longhorns since the Big 12 was formed out of the ashes of the Big 8 and Southwest Conferences.  The closest they have come was back in 2004 when they lost by just 4 points, the only time they have covered the spread in this series.  Kansas has always had the lesser talented team and was lucky to not have to face Texas every season in the old divisional format. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Texas

Can anyone really explain what has happened to Texas?  I know that quality QB play is essential to winning football but it seems like more than that is going on at a program which, if you can believe recruiting rankings, is about as talented as anybody in the country.  This week is the best chance they will have this year to make a statement and have some fun doing it.

One of the problems at Texas is that they can’t seem to make up their mind at QB.  I fully subscribe to the theory that if you are playing two QBs you really don’t have one.  Last time out David Ash got all of the snaps in a loss to Oklahoma State.  He wasn’t very good but assuming they used their off week effectively he should show much better against Kansas.  Plus it is Kansas right!

This week Texas should be able to get by with a mediocre performance and still win by 20.  however, this team is so skittish right now that I would be hesitant to get behind them in a major way.  It might be time for Mack Brown to shuffle off and let someone else inject some enthusiasm into the program.  Sorry if this preview isn’t as focused on the game as others but I find the Texas situation so interesting and it is not as if Kansas/Texas is a real game anyway.  Sorry Jayhawk fans.

ATS Pick:  Texas -28.5
Over/Under Pick:  Under
Score Prediction:  Texas 42 – Kansas 7

Venue/ Stadium: Jones AT&T Stadium, LUBBOCK, TX

Time/Date: 7 PM EST Saturday, October 29, 2011
NCAA Odds From: BetOnline
Moneyline: Iowa State +500 / Texas Tech -640
Spread (ATS): Texas Tech -15
Over/Under: 67

Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 20 Texas Tech Red Raiders Preview

Texas Tech (5-2) is coming off a HUGE win beating Oklahoma on the road, which snapped the Sooners 39-game home winning streak. Iowa State (3-4) is on the other side of the spectrum, as after starting the season 3-0 they have lost their last 4 games and have yet to win a Big 12 game. NCAAF lines have Texas Tech as big 15-point home favorites with a total of 67.

In their last games Iowa State lost to Texas A&M 33-17 while Texas Tech beat Oklahoma 41-38.

The big question in this game is do Iowa State and their 74th ranked pass defense have any chance against a Texas Tech pass offense that ranks 3rd in the nation?

Tech and their dynamic passing offense is led by QB Seth Doege, who passed for 441 yards with 4 TD and 0 INT in the win over Oklahoma, and WR’s Alex Torres (39 rec 475 yards 4 TD) and Eric Ward (44 rec 430 yards 8 TD). The Cyclones gave up 263 passing yards last week and in their last 3 losses, which were all blowouts, they lost to teams that have a great passing offense. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Even though the aerial attack is the main weapon for the Red Raiders they can run the ball ranking 59th in the nation in rushing yards per game. Not only do the Cyclones have a weak pass defense, but also their run defense is even worse ranking 114th in the nation.

For Iowa State to have any chance to win this game they will need QB Jared Barnett and RB James White to play stellar. This is especially the case since the ISU defense has really struggled in the last few games. Still, White has only rushed for over 100 yards in 1 game this season and freshman Barnett is only making the 1st start of his career. The one thing the Cyclones have going for them is that the Red Raiders only rank 105th in the nation in run defense and 53rd in pass defense.

White will not get any help in the backfield since RB Shontrelle Johnson, who rushed for 102 yards last season against Texas Tech, is out for this game with an injury.

Betting Trends

This season Iowa State is 3-4 ATS and has an Over/Under record of 4-3 and Texas Tech is 5-2 ATS and has an Over/Under record of 6-1.

Iowa State is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 10.5 points or more, and has an Under record of 7-2 in their last 9 road games.

Texas Tech is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games facing a team with a losing record and has an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 home games.

Jason’s Pick: Seriously? Texas Tech ranks 9th in the nation in scoring while Iowa State ranks 115th giving up almost 36 points per game? Yeah, take Tech to easily win and cover and the Over is the pick with all the points on the scoreboard that will be put up in this Big 12 match up.

Venue/ Stadium: Kyle Field, COLLEGE STATION, TX

Time/Date: 12 PM EST Saturday, October 29, 2011
NCAA Odds From: BetOnline
Moneyline: Missouri +365 / Texas A&M -440
Spread (ATS): Texas A&M -11
Over/Under: 62.5

Missouri Tigers vs. No 16 Texas A&M Aggies Preview

Texas A&M (5-2) has gotten over their 2 close losses this season with 3 straight wins and their offense, which ranks 13th in the nation in scoring, has kept on rolling. Missouri (3-4) is under .500 and the underdog in this game, but the Tigers are solid on both sides of the ball and all of their losses this season have come to teams that are currently ranked in the top 25. NCAAF lines has Texas A&M as 11-point favorites in this Big 12 game with a total of 62.5.

In their last games Texas A&M beat Iowa State 33-17 and Missouri lost to Oklahoma State 45-24.

Something has got to give in this game, as Texas A&M is giving up 79.9 rushing yards per game, which is the fewest in the Big 12, while Missouri is averaging 238.1 rushing yards per game.

Ryan Tannehill leads the Aggies and their 19th ranked passing offense and he has several solid targets and will be facing a Mizzou pass defense that ranks 86th in the nation and gave up 338 passing yards to Oklahoma State last week. The Tigers have a decent pass rush with 15 sacks on the season and getting to Tannehill is key since their secondary is sketchy. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

The Aggies have the nation’s 14th ranked rushing offense and the RB duo of Christine Michael and Cyrus Gray have combined to rush for over 1,350 yards this season. Mizzou has the nation’s 41st ranked run defense and it is pretty simple for them, as they have to play good all around D against a high scoring offense of A&M and if they do not their offense will have to bail them out.

The Texas A&M defense is Jekyll and Hyde, as they have the nations worst pass defense, but the 5th best run defense. Their D has one goal in this game and that is to contain duel threat Missouri QB James Franklin and RB Henry Josey. The Aggies have the advantage since the strength of the Mizzou offense is running the ball, but stopping Posey will not be easy, as he has averaged 8.6 yards per carry this season and has rushed for over 100 yards in 4 of his last 5 games.

Franklin may have to do it all if A&M stuffs the run and the duo of T.J. Moe and TE Michael Egnew will have to make some big plays down the field.

Mizzou’s offensive line must play well, as Texas A&M has the most sacks in the nation this season.

On the season Missouri is 4-3 ATS and has an Over/Under record of 4-3 and Texas A&M is 2-5 ARS and has an Over/Under record of 4-3.

Betting Trends

Mizzou is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 10.5 points or more and has an Over record of 5-2 in their last 7 games facing a team with a winning record.

Texas A&M is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite, and has an Under record of 7-3 in their last 10 home games.

Jason’s Pick: I Like Mizzou, but have to go with Texas A&M in this game, as they are simply too good on offense and they have a great run defense. Take the Aggies to win and cover and since Mizzou will score some points I think the Over is the way to go.

Venue/ Stadium: Bill Snyder Stadium, MANHATTAN, KS

Time/Date: 3:30 PM EST Saturday, October 29, 2011
NCAA Odds From: BetOnline
Moneyline: Oklahoma -500 / KSU +405
Spread (ATS): Oklahoma -13.5
Over/Under: 59.5

No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 8 Kansas State Wildcats Preview

Last week Oklahoma (6-1) had their 39-home winning streak snapped with a shocking loss to Texas Tech and to stay in the hunt for the Big 12 title they will have to beat Kansas State (7-0). The Wildcats are undefeated and the next few games will show if they are a legit Big 12 title and BCS contender, as after Oklahoma they face the ranked teams of Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, and Texas. NCAAF lines have Oklahoma as big 13.5-point away favorites with a total of 59.5.

In their last games Oklahoma was a 4-TD betting favorite, but lost to Texas Tech 41-38 and Kansas State crushed rival Kansas 59-21.

The Sooners’ defense failed to show up last week in the loss to Texas Tech giving up 452 passing yards and 120 rushing yards. They will likely not give up a ton of passing yards, as the Wildcats are all about the run ranking 19th in the nation in rushing yards per game, but only 110th in passing yards per game. For the Sooners’ defense their goal is to contain rushing QB Collin Klein (637 rushing yards 14 TD) and RB John Hubert (637 yards 2 TD). If they can keep these guys from racking up a ton of rushing yards they will easily win this game.

Oklahoma ranks 28th in the nation in run defense. Klein did have 195 passing yards with 1 TD in the win over Kansas, but if he has to carry the offense with his arm KSU will be in trouble. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Oklahoma and their nation’s 4th ranked passing offense is led by Landry Jones, who threw for 412 yards with 5 TD and 1 INT in the loss to Texas Tech. He has a solid WR corps, especially NCAA’s all time reception leader WR Ryan Broyles, and the main reason OU is a big favorite is that KSU only ranks 87th in the nation defending the pass.

Sooners’ lead RB Dominique Whaley (627 yards 9 TD) did not play in the Tech game, but he will play this Saturday. While the Wildcats do not have a good pass defense their run defense ranks a solid 13th in the nation. Still, if they cannot keep Jones from lighting up the scoreboard KSU will suffer their first loss of the season.

Betting Trends

This season Kansas State is 6-1 ATS and has an Over/Under record of 4-3 and Oklahoma is 4-3 ATS and also has an Over/Under record of 4-3.

Oklahoma is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 10.5 points or more, and has an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 games.

Kansas State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and has an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 games.

Jason’s Pick: I think KSU is overrated and because their pass defense is weak Jones is going to light them up, as the Sooners will win and cover the 11.5-point spread. Take the Over as well, as KSU will not get blanked and OU will score a ton of points.

#22 Georgia Bulldogs (5-2, 4-1 SEC) vs. Florida Gators (4-3, 2-3 SEC)

“The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party”, EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville FL
Saturday, October 29, 3:30 pm EST
NCAA Odds from Sportsbook.com:
MoneyLine: Georgia -154, Florida +127
Spread: Georgia -3, Florida +3
Over/Under: 49

Earlier in the regular season, it was looking like the Georgia Bulldogs were the SEC East division pretender and the Gators were the divisional contender. In recent weeks, however, a combination of injuries and teams showing their true colors have shaken it down to be the opposite between these two rivals.

Florida got out to a great start on the campaign, steam-rolling opponents and showcasing a very dangerous and cohesive offense. Yet the Gators have lost their last three games and have had devastating injuries at the quarterback position, with starter John Brantley going down a few weeks ago and freshman back-up Jeff Driskel also dinged up. True freshman Jacoby Brissett has been starting for UF, sharing time with Driskel for the last couple games against Top 25 opponents (Alabama, LSU, Auburn). Brantley is finally listed as “Probable” for this Saturday’s game against Georgia.

In truth, the injuries have been far more pervasive than just under center. Listed as “Questionable” or confirmed “Out” for this coming week are the following starters: RG Dan Wenger, WR Andre Debose, K Caleb Sturgis, super-speedster RB Jeff Demps, DE Ronald Powell and CB Jeremy Brown. This type of attrition obviously has had a lot to do with why Florida has lost three straight games against elite SEC West division teams. Florida has had excellent fortune in the past several years; perhaps it was high time for “the other shoe to drop” in Gainesville. Either way, it seems like that is precisely what’s happening in 2011.

On the other sideline, the Bulldogs are a little banged up themselves – WR Malcolm Mitchell and LB Alec Ogletree are big absences, and a few other defenders will be out for only part of the Florida game, due to personal foul suspensions. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Freshman WR Mitchell was Georgia’s leading receiver, but QB Aaron Murray has the skill and the weapons to go elsewhere and still be productive.  Tight end Orson Charles is a vital option for Murray, and freshman RB Isaiah Crowell has been a huge help, with 608 rushing yards and four TDs on the year. The Dawgs lost their first two games to Boise State and South Carolina, respectively, but have reeled off five straight wins since then.

With Auburn being the only other ranked team Georgia faces the rest of the season, Georgia has a good chance to finish the season with only two losses and perhaps win the division. However, assuming Brantley is back in the lineup, he instantly brings credibility to a sputtering Florida attack. The absence of Demps will certainly be felt, but Brantley can spread the ball around and the versatile RB/WR Chris Rainey leads the Gators in both rushing and receptions.

This should be a close rivalry game played in the No Man’s Land of Jacksonville (east towards Athens, GA, but still in the Sunshine State), but I give the edge to Georgia because of a few reasons: the continuity Murray has established with his offense, Georgia’s 27^th-ranked defense and the blood in the water that opponents doubtlessly smell when they play Florida these days.

Florida will have a better showing than it did against any of its last three opponents, but I don’t think it will be enough to best the rolling Bulldogs right now. Georgia should continue to look like the top Dawg in the SEC East, while Florida seemingly continues its limp to the finish line. Florida has plenty of speed and talent – as it showcased in the first four weeks of the season – but it desperately needs to get healthy.

Score Prediction: Georgia 24, Florida 17
Over/Under Prediction: 41