Month: September 2011

Categories
NFL

Green Bay Packers vs. Carolina Panthers NFL Lines

Venue/ Stadium: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC

Time/Date: 1 PM EST Saturday, September 18, 2011
NCAA Odds From: BetOnline.com
Moneyline: Packers -490 / Panthers +390
Spread (ATS): Packers -10
Over/Under: 47

Green Bay Packers vs. Carolina Panthers Preview

Great week 2 match up with the defending champion Green Bay Packers heading south to take on #1 draft pick Cam Newton, who was stellar in his debut, and the Carolina Panthers. Yeah, the Packers are on the road and Newton may be the real deal, but NFL lines still has Green Bay as big 10-point favorites with a total of 47.

In their opening games of the season the Packers won a barnburner 42-34 against the New Orleans Saints and the Panthers lost 28-21 to the Arizona Cardinals despite the impressive performance by Newton.

Did I say impressive? Well, Newton threw for the most yards (422) by a QB making his first start. WR Steve Smith had 178 receiving yards with 2 TD in the loss to Arizona and new addition TE Greg Olsen chimed in with 4 catches for 78 yards.

Carolina has lost 6 of their last 7 home openers.

The Packers had a great passing defense last season, but in their season opener they gave up 419 yards and 3 TD to Drew Brees and the Saints. Newton did shine in his debut, but there is one thing to touch on. The Cardinals did not want to get killed by Newton running the ball so they brought up players from the secondary to thwart that. Because of that Newton saw open passing lanes and 1-on-1 coverage. The Packers will know that and not give Cam what the Cardinals did.

Newton did not have much help from the rushing offense in week 1, as the Panthers only had 74 rushing yards with DeAngelo Williams only gaining 30 yards on 12 carries averaging a paltry 2.5 yards per carry. That does not live up to the big contract he signed before the season began. Also, while the Packers gave up a ton of passing yards to the Saints they only gave up 81 rushing yards. Williams needs to break out and have a good game this Sunday or the Panthers will start the season 0-2 again. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers was named NFC offensive player of the week after going 27/35 passes for 312 yards and 3 TD in the win over the Saints.  This does not bode well for a Carolina team that allowed new Arizona QB Kevin Kolb to pass for 309 yards and 2 TD against them last week.

Carolina LB Jon Beason was lost for the season last week with an injury and that is a big blow since he was the anchor for the defense. The Packers rushed for 103 yards last week and the Panthers allowed the Cardinals, who have a sketchy rushing offense at best, to gallop for 99 yards.

Betting Trends

Green Bay is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, and has an Under record of 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.

Carolina is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog, and has an Over record of 5-2-2 in their last 9 games.

Jason’s Pick: Newton may a solid QB, but the Packers are simply much better on both sides of the ball. Rodgers will not be stopped, the Pack will run the ball well, and they will play solid D. Take the packers to win this game and cover the 10-point spread. Betting trends be damned, as even though the total has gone Under in the last 6 games when the Packers are the road favorite this game will go Over the posted total of 47.

Categories
NFL

Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons pick

Falcons Super Bowl Lines & Predictions

Venue/Stadium: Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia

Time/Date: Sunday September 18, 2011 – 8:20 PM ET

NFL Odds

Moneyline: Eagles -130

Spread (ATS): Eagles -1.5

Over/Under: 49.5

When Michael Vick left the Atlanta Falcons and the NFL for federal prison five years ago, there was little indication that he would get a second chance of living out his dream of becoming a Super Bowl champion. Fast-forward to 2011 and Vick, now a member of the Philadelphia Eagles, will make his return to the place that dream died so long ago looking to take the next step in his pursuit of an NFL championship, as part of a new “dream team”. Expectations are high for the Pro Bowl quarterback in his first full season as a starter for the Eagles, and this weekend’s Primetime showdown against the team that drafted him represents a crucial step towards reaching those goals.

For the Falcons, the bar is just as high after finishing atop the NFC with 14 wins a year ago, only to be eliminated by the eventual Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers in their lone playoff game. While Vick has thrived in his comeback with the Eagles, Atlanta hasn’t missed a beat with the development of Matt Ryan as their franchise quarterback, who they feel is ready to take another step forward this season. However, Ryan struggled in the opener at Chicago week one, turning the ball over twice and failing to reach the endzone despite throwing for 319 yards in a 30-12 loss. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

What was projected to be an explosive passing attack with the addition of rookie first round pick Julio Jones to a group that already consisted of Roddy White and tight end Tony Gonzalez showed flashes week one, but they will need to find a way to score. The Atlanta defense looked lost at times against the Bears, and that doesn’t project well heading into a matchup against the explosive Eagles.

Despite a slow start, Philadelphia put up 403 total yards of offense in a 31-13 win at the St. Louis Rams week one, with Michael Vick accounting for 284 of those yards both on the ground and through the air, as well as two touchdown passes. Running back LeSean McCoy looked explosive with 122 yards and one score on only 15 carries, and if he gets going again this week, Atlanta will be in trouble. The Eagles’ defense allowed a touchdown on the Ram’s first possession, but held them to six points the rest of the way to give fans a taste of how good that group can be. If Philadelphia comes out firing on all cylinders again week two, then they should be able to get the job done in their first real test of the season as Vick celebrates his return in style

NFL Betting Pick: Eagles

Categories
NFL

Week 2: Browns vs. Colts Preview & Free Pick

The Colts Lose Dallas Clark For The Year

Cleveland Browns (0-1) vs. Indianapolis Colts (0-1)

Time/Date: 1:00 PM EST, September 18, 2011
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium

Broadcast: CBS

Browns vs. Colts Gambling Odds from BetOnline

Spread: Browns -2.5

Moneyline: Browns (-135) Colts (+115)

Over/Under: 40

Peyton Manning is on the shelf for quite a while, and the Indianapolis Colts showed just how badly they miss him last weekend. The Browns were expected to roll over the lowly Bengals, but Cincinnati beat Cleveland in the season opener. Both of these teams had to be extremely disappointed with their performance in week one. Which team will bounce back with a big win?

Colt McCoy and the Browns offense just never really got it going against the Bengals defense. McCoy threw two touchdowns and one interception, but he completed only 47.5% of his passes last week. The running game really struggled to get going, because the Browns offensive front just couldn’t get much of a push against Cincinnati. Peyton Hillis continued to show his value out of the backfield. Hillis caught six passes, three more than any other Brown did last weekend. Cleveland will certainly be looking to get Hillis more than 17 carries this week against the Colts.

The Cleveland defense really blew it when they got caught napping in the fourth quarter last weekend by the Bengals. Cincinnati quick snapped while the Browns were still in the huddle, and A.J. Green was wide open for a 41 yard touchdown reception. The Browns pass defense was pretty solid for most of the game, but they did allow too many yards on the ground. Cedric Benson put up 121 yards rushing. Joe Haden and T.J. Ward lead a talented secondary for Cleveland. I expect them to be ready to bounce back this week. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

There were plenty of questions about how Kerry Collins would perform as the Colts starter before last weekend. After last weekend’s drubbing, there are even more questions now. Collins numbers actually weren’t that awful last week, but those who watched the game saw that this Colts offense really struggled to get into a groove last weekend. Collins had two costly fumbles, and the running game never got going at all against the Texans. Clearly this is an offense that will have to try to score in different ways without Manning at the helm. It will be interesting to see what kind of changes they make to the game plan this week.

It was the Colts run defense that really let them down last week. Despite Arian Foster being out of the lineup, Houston still ran for 167 yards. Ben Tate had 116 yards rushing in his first career start. Over the past few years, the Colts front seven has had a lot of difficulty stopping the run. Indianapolis has a solid secondary and two very god pass rushers in Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, but the middle of the defense must improve against the run. They’ll be tested by Hillis and the Browns in this one.

I don’t expect the Colts to play nearly as bad as they did a week ago. The Browns secondary is pretty good, and the Colts aren’t a good running team. At the same time, I could see the Colts getting to Colt McCoy fairly often here. I think this one has the makings of an ugly low scoring game.

Free NFL Pick: Under 40

Categories
NFL

Week 2: Bengals vs. Broncos Preview & Free Pick

Cincinnati Bengals (1-0) vs. Denver Broncos (0-1)

Time/Date: 4:15 PM EST, September 18, 2011

Venue: Sports Authority Field at Mile High

Broadcast: CBS

Bengals vs. Broncos Gambling Odds from BetOnline

Spread: Broncos -3.5

Moneyline: Broncos (-180) Bengals (+160)

Over/Under: 40

The fans will likely continue chanting for Tim Tebow, but John Fox made it pretty clear that he is sticking with Kyle Orton as his starting quarterback. Andy Dalton and a young Cincinnati Bengals team will visit Denver this weekend. The Broncos are coming off a tough loss to the Raiders, while the Bengals are coming off a surprising victory over the Browns.

Andy Dalton was efficient in his time as the starter last weekend, but he injured his wrist and had to miss the second half. Bruce Gradkowksi struggled at the beginning of his time in the game, but he connected on a great quick snap pass to A.J. Green to put the Bengals in front late in the fourth quarter. While the quarterback play was pretty good, it was the running of Cedric Benson that was key for the Bengals last weekend. Benson gained 121 yards on 25 carries in last week’s win. If this team is going to be successful at all this year, they must be able to run the football consistently.

The Cincinnati defense was pretty impressive last week. The front four dominated the Browns offensive line, and they really held Peyton Hillis and the Browns running game in check. The Bengals have a couple very solid corners in Nate Clements and Leon Hall. Rey Maualuga looks like he has made the transition to middle linebacker quite successfully. The Bengals are hoping to get Keith Rivers back soon, but he is questionable this week. The defense is expected to be the strength of the Bengals team this season. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Billboards around Denver are starting to pop up with Play Tim Tebow messages, and the fans are clearly getting upset already. Kyle Orton threw for 304 yards last week, but a crucial fumble cost the Broncos a chance of winning last week. Brandon Lloyd has emerged as a star wide receiver for this Broncos team. He had six catches for 89 yards last week. The running game struggled all last year, and they weren’t good against Oakland either. Knowshon Moreno is likely out this weekend, so expect Willis McGahee to get most of the carries. John Fox really wants the Broncos to establish a running game.

The Broncos defense only allowed 105 passing yards against Oakland, but the Raiders rolled up 190 yards on the ground. Brian Dawkins and Champ Bailey were the leading tacklers for Denver last week. It’s never a good sign when your secondary leads the team in tackles, especially when the other team didn’t throw it very often at all. Von Miller showed flashes of brilliance last weekend, and I expect the Broncos to blitz the young Bengals quarterback early and often this week.

I don’t think either of these teams will be very good this year. The Broncos like to throw it, but the Bengals secondary is pretty good. Cincinnati’s offense isn’t good at all at this point, but they can probably run it some against Denver. I think this goes down to the wire.

Free NFL Pick: Bengals +3.5

Categories
NFL

St. Louis Rams @ New York Giants

Giants Patriots parlay

Venue/Stadium: Metlife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey

Time/Date: Monday September 19, 2011 – 8:30 PM ET

NFL Odds

Moneyline: Giants -270

Spread (ATS): Giants -6

Over/Under: 44

Steve Spagnuolo earned his first job as an NFL head coach by proving his merit as defensive coordinator of the New York Giants in 2007 and 2008. Now, the man who led the St. Louis Rams to within one win of a division title in his first season in control will look for his first win of year two against that same team he helped win a Super Bowl back in 2007. Both teams are battling a plethora of injuries that contributed to week one losses, and will clash at MetLife Stadium under the bright lights of Monday night hoping to avoid consecutive losses to open their respective seasons.

The Giants will likely be without two of the defensive stars that helped Spagnuolo’s units lead the league with 53 sacks in 2007, as ends Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora are both injured. New York is already without cornerback Terrell Thomas and linebacker Jonathan Goff for the remainder of the season, and as injuries take their toll on the defense it will be up to Eli Manning and the offense to get things done. Manning struggled against the rival Washington Redskins week one as he completed just over 50-percent of his passes for 268 yards and an interception, while the running game never really got going either with Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs combining for just 73 yards on 19 carries. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

The offense will need to be better Monday night, and that could be tough as Spagnuolo is already familiar with their strengths and weaknesses, especially with the chance that wide receiver Hakeem Nicks could also miss the game with a knee injury.

The third-year head coach had to be happy to hear that quarterback Sam Bradford will be able to play this week after bruising his right index finger in the fourth quarter of the Rams’ 31-13 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. How the injury will affect his play will be one of the keys to the game for St. Louis, as well as whether or not running back Stephen Jackson and wide receiver Danny Amendola will be cleared to play. The Rams’ defense improved dramatically a year ago under Spagnuolo, but seemed to wear down against Philadelphia as the game went on. If Bradford can operate at a high level and Jackson plays then St. Louis should be able to keep this one close in Spagnuolo’s return, but it will be very tough to push a contender like New York to 0-2 on the road.

NFL Betting Pick: Giants

Categories
Nascar

GEICO 400 Race Preview & Predictions

Race: GEICO 400 at Chicagoland Speedway

Date: Sunday, September 18, 2011
Time: 2:16 PM ET (scheduled green flag)
TV: 2:00 PM ET on ESPN

Preview: At long last, the ten-race NASCAR Chase is here, starting with this Sunday’s “GEICO 400” at Chicagoland Speedway. This is the first time since the inception of the Chase in 2004 that it has started at the Chicago track, and only the 11th race at the speedway in Sprint Cup history. All seven previous Chase sessions started at Loudon, New Hampshire, and all ten previous Chicago races took place in July. In addition, the once-a-year Chicago race has been a Saturday night event since 2008. Seven of the ten races here have been won by Chevy teams, while Ford has never been to Victory Lane at Chicago in a Cup race. Six of the 12 Chase drivers are previous winners here.

Safe Bet: (odds of less than 10/1)

• Jeff Gordon (7/1): Gordon has the best average finish at Chicago (8.6) with a win here in 2006. He finished 2nd in 2009 and 3rd in 2010. Gordon was 6th-fastest in Happy Hour and also looked strong on longer runs. He won at Atlanta two weeks ago and finished 3rd last week at Richmond. Gordon is 3rd in points to start the Chase.

Mid Range: (odds between 10/1 – 20/1)

• Kevin Harvick (10/1): Harvick and Tony Stewart are the only drivers with more than one win at Chicagoland with two wins a piece. Harvick’s wins here came back in 2001-2002, but he’s finished 4th or better three of the last five Chicagoland outings. Kevin was in the top 3 in Happy Hour and will be riding the momentum of last weekend’s win at Richmond, where he led 202 laps. He starts the Chase tied with Kyle Busch for the points lead.

Long Shot: (odds of greater than 20/1)

• Kasey Kahne (22/1): Though he’s never won at Chicago, Kahne has finished as high as 3rd (2009) and ran 6th here last year. In Happy Hour practice on Friday, he was second-fastest on the speed chart, which could lead to a strong qualifying run and good pit stall selection Saturday.

Summary: There are lots of unknowns heading into Sunday’s race, since the Cup Series has never run here in September and hasn’t had a daytime race at Chicago since 2007. But, with half the current Chase field previous winners at Chicagoland, it won’t be surprising to see a Chase contender in Victory Lane again on Sunday.

Categories
NHL

2011-12 NHL Team Preview: Buffalo Sabres

Sabres sign Christian Ehrhoff

2011-12 NHL Team Preview: Buffalo Sabres

Not that Ralph Wilson is hard to top, but there isn’t a more popular sports owner in Buffalo than Terry Pegula right now. From the moment he bought the Sabres in February 2011, he vowed that the culture would change and that the team would start spending. He delivered on his promise as Buffalo made some serious offseason moves. Where do the suped-up Sabres fit into the Eastern Conference playoff picture?

BUFFALO SABRES
Stanley Cup odds: +1600

The 2011-12 Sabres look on paper like an exaggerated, slightly better version of last year’s team. They improved in the offseason but did so in areas where they already had depth and strength.

Buffalo is built from the back-end out. Ryan Miller regressed in 2010-11 following his Vezina Trophy-winning campaign the year. He’s started 68 and 65 games over the last few seasons; now that Buffalo has a reasonable backup goalie in Jhonas Enroth, it may shrink Miller’s number to 60 in hopes of resting him for the playoffs.

In front of Miller will be one of the league’s most improved, versatile defense corps. Tyler Myers was inconsistent in his sophomore year but the big fella’s strong second half suggests he’ll be a force in year three. He has a great shutdown guy to learn from this season in Robyn Regehr, whom Buffalo acquired from Calgary this offseason. The Sabres will get some offense from Jordan Leopold, another former Flame who enjoyed a career revival last year, plus Christian Ehrhoff. The Ehrhoff signing signalled a changing of the guard: Pegula opened his wallet to land a coveted free agent and wasn’t done after nabbing Ehrhoff.

Buffalo also added free agent Ville Leino. He’s a talented, creative, two way player with good speed and hands who joins many other talented, creative, two-way players with good speed and hands. The Sabres get more of what they already had with Leino but he should be a solid addition nonetheless.

The Sabres have a young, fleet-footed group of forwards with breakout potential. They know what they have with reliable scorers like Derek Roy, Thomas Vanek and Jason Pominville. But tiny Tyler Ennis could take his game to the next level after tallying 49 points as a rookie.

And what about Drew Stafford? Hyped as the power forward Buffalo was waiting for, he disappointed for his first few pro seasons. Then, last season, it all clicked for Stafford. The former first-rounder went off for 31 goals in 62 games, scoring at better than a 40-goal pace. He’ll be a major weapon, especially on the power play, if he can duplicate his performance.

Buffalo’s star power comes from the back, with Miller and Myers emerging as franchise pillars. The rest of its roster is laden with depth and second-tier talent — a lot of it. Buffalo looks like a safe bet to make the playoffs and this young, exciting group has the upside to do a lot more than that. The Sabres are a legit Stanley Cup sleeper.

Prediction:2n, Northeast Division

Categories
NHL

2011-12 NHL Team Preview: Toronto Maple Leafs

2011-12 NHL Team Preview: Toronto Maple Leafs

Toronto Maple Leaf fans have had their faith tested like never before throughout the decade. They last played a playoff game in 2004. The seven-year drought is the longest in franchise history and will extend to at least eight years this spring.

However, the Buds showed promise last season for the first time in the Brian Burke era, going 18-7-6 over their final 31 games. Will they finally put the golf clubs away and play some meaningful April hockey this season?

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
Stanley Cup odds: +4500

To assess whether or not the Leafs can take the next step and return to the playoff season, let’s start at examining what clicked in the second half last season and whether or not it’s repeatable.

The single biggest influence on Toronto’s success in 2010-11 was rookie goaltender James Reimer. Optimus Reim looked like a seasoned vet from the moment he took the ice, going 20-10-5 with a 2.60 goals against average and .921 save percentage.

The most important question for the Leafs this season is whether or not Reimer was a fluke. I’m a believer. The key to his success wasn’t scrambling or athleticism. It was maturity, technique and lateral movement. He never overplayed the puck. His calmness reminded me of a young Ed Belfour. I believe his skills are quite sustainable.

It helps that the defense in front of Reimer is an ever-improving group. For all the flak Dion Phaneuf has taken, he was very much the Phaneuf of old in the second half last season, pasting opponents with thunderous hits and taking smarter shots. He’s still only 26 years old and just entering his prime.

Joining him is Luke Schenn, a captain-in-training who showed remarkably improved puck skills and shutdown ability last season. Smooth-skating Carl Gunnarsson returns after a so-so sophomore campaign and Mike Komisarek is still looking for his first good year with the team. Toronto made two key new defensive additions; John-Michael Liles will take over the power-play quarterback vacancy left by Tomas Kaberle and Cody Franson, acquired from Nashville, gives the Leafs another young, underrated guy with top-four ability.

For Toronto to make a playoff push, its scoring must improve. Clarke MacArthur, Mikhail Grabovski and Nik Kulemin were a fantastic line last season – by second -line standards. The Leafs need a true first line. Phil Kessel absolutely has the talent to be a front-line scorer; hell be 24 in October and already has three 30-goal seasons in the NHL. For him to break through and hit the 40-goal mark, key offseason signing Tim Connolly has to stay healthy.

Connolly likely won’t stay healthy but, when he does, expect Kessel’s production to spike. Talent isn’t the problem for Connolly; he has great hands and vision. He should help the power play.

The rest of Toronto’s forward corps has plenty of speed and checking ability but lacks true scoring touch. If Joffrey Lupul can build on his resurgent 2010-11 campaign and prospect Nazem Kadri can stick with the big club, the team’s offensive skill level will rise. Otherwise, Toronto will again cross its fingers hoping for overachieving efforts from ordinary talents like MacArthur, Colby Armstrong and Mike Brown.

To me, Toronto is a poor man’s Buffalo. It has an excellent blueline, (probably) good goaltending and lacks elite scoring prowess up front. This season, however, I believe the Leafs’ continued defensive improvement will be just enough to squeak them in as the No. 8 seed.

2011-12 will be the most fun Leafs fans have had in a while. Also, watch for Nik Kulemin as a darkhorse Selke Trophy candidate. He scored 30 goals last season but is also among the league’s most underrated defensive forwards.

Prediction:3rd, Northeast Division

Categories
NHL

2011-12 NHL Team Preview: Montreal Canadiens

2011-12 NHL Team Preview: Montreal Canadiens

The Montreal Canadiens are the Eastern Conference’s answer to the Nashville Predators. Every year, most pundits expect them to flop; the general perception is that the Habs just don’t have that much talent. However, every year, Montreal finds a way to defy the odds and win. Will 2011-12 be Montreal’s umpteenth Cinderella season or will the bottom finally fall out?

MONTREAL CANADIENS
Stanley Cup odds: +2000

The Habs were among the least active teams in free agency and the few moves they made were widely questioned. Past his prime, injury-prone Erik Cole will give Montreal some badly needed size up front – but for how many games? The Canadiens grossly overpaid for such a high-risk, medium-reward player.

The reward for defenseman Andrei Markov is higher but Montreal paid top dollar to re-sign a guy who has played 52 of a possible 164 games over the past two seasons. Can he still be an elite player at age 33?

The rest of Montreal’s roster to me is Carey Price, P.K. Subban and the other guys. Price became an elite goaltender last season and should stay that way. Subban is a special talent on defense, an intimidator, a hard hitter and shooter, and a real game-changer. He’s just getting started, too.

But where’s the upside on the rest of Montreal’s roster? Mike Cammalleri is in his prime and should chip in 30 or so goals but he’s injury-prone. Brian Gionta, Scott Gomez and Tomas Plekanec are second-tier scorers on the wrong side of 30 years old. Max Pacioretty emerged as a scoring threat last season but his ceiling is low. If Andrei Kostitsyn was going to become an elite NHL goal scorer, it would’ve happened by now.

Josh Gorges, Hal Gill, Jaroslav Spacek and Yannick Weber join Markov and Subban to form a pretty decent defense. The Habs should again be among the league’s stingier teams.

It’s amazing how similar the top four squads in the Northeast are in their approaches (not their skill levels). Boston, Buffalo, Toronto and Montreal all look like they’ll rely on defense and goaltending more than scoring to succeed this season.

The problem for Montreal is that its model for success looks like the least sustainable of those four teams.  Too many of its most important forwards and defenseman are old and/or injury prone. Markov is a major re-injury risk because his injuries were so severe. Cammalleri is a good bet to miss time again because he’s small and brittle.

Montreal still has enough defensive ability and veteran savvy to be a competitive team this season – but I believe they’ll be a bubble team that eventually finishes on the outside looking in. Fans of the Leafs/Habs rivalry could be thrilled this season, as I see the No. 8 seed in the East coming down to an epic battle between the Leafs and Habs. This time, I think the younger, higher-upside Leafs will finally get the better of their old foes.

Look for 2011-12 to signal the start of what could be a long, painful rebuild for Montreal Canadiens, whose prospect cupboard is pretty bare.
Prediction:4th, Northeast Division

Categories
MLB

MLB Betting – Tigers vs Athletics Pick

MLB Betting – Tigers vs Athletics Preview & Pick

Date: Saturday, September 17, 2011
Venue: O.co Coliseum, Oakland, CA
Broadcast: FOX
Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics Betting Lines from Bodog.com
Money Line: OFF
Over/Under: OFF

Detroit Tigers (87-63 through September 15)
Rick Porcello (14-8, 4.83)

The Detroit Tigers have officially graduated from World Series sleeper to World Series contender. A 12-game winning streak will do that. The American League Central is theirs; a 13.5-game lead through Thursday means that the best any team can do is tie them.

But the dominant second half doesn’t necessarily mean Detroit has nothing to fix heading into the playoffs. For one, the Tigers could breathe a lot easier if they got some solid starting pitching from someone other than Justin Verlander and Doug Fister.

Saturday starter Rick Porcello continues to tease with his talent. Still just 22 years old, he’s shown great control this year, walking 40 batters in 162 innings. But Porcello has also been hittable, allowing a .291 opponents’ average.

Porcello is 6-2 in 11 starts since the All-Star break – but with a 4.91 ERA. His success is more the product of run support than anything else. If he wants to help Detroit in the playoffs, he has to curb his homer rate in particular.

Oakland Athletics (68-82 through September 15)
Gio Gonzalez (13-12, 3.41)

The Oakland A’s are just playing out the string, guaranteed another sub-.500 finish after they were hyped as an AL Wildcard sleeper entering the 2011 season.

One of their few bright spots has been Gio Gonzalez, who starts Saturday. However, even he has been a source of stress lately. The All-Star’s overall numbers are strong, fitting the profile of a power pitcher with a high strikeout and walk rate, but he’s struggled mightily in the second half. He had a 2.47 ERA at the break and he sits at 5.00 since.

The pick:

Not only is Gonzalez regularly getting lit up lately, he’s never succeeded against the Tigers, going 0-3 with a 6.87 ERA in four starts against them. In those outings, he’s lasted a combined 18.1 innings and allowed six homers.

A struggling pitcher versus a hot offense that has historically demolished him? Seems like an easy choice to me. Porcello ain’t perfect but the Athletics’ popgun attack isn’t built to hurt him.

Tigers vs Athletics prediction: Tigers 6, Athletics 2

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MLB

MLB Power Rankings: September 16

MLB Power Rankings

Baseball Power Rankings:

There’s a new sheriff in town atop the MLB power rankings and his name is Justin Verlander.

(Previous rankings in brackets)

1. (3) Detroit Tigers (87-63): Justin Verlander will go for win No. 24 this weekend. Perhaps most impressive is his 13-2 road mark. With him leading the way, not to mention the offensive depth led by Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, you could make a case that Detroit is now the American League Pennant frontrunner.

2. (1) Philadelphia Phillies (97-51): Is there a chance that clinching so early will make the Phillies go soft come playoff time? Nah. I just remembered that Roy Halladay pitches for them. No way Doc lets his teammates rest on their laurels.

3. (2) New York Yankees (90-58): They still have as strong a chance as any team to win it all because their bats are the equivalent of the Phillies’ arms. When will the Curtis Granderson show stop?

4. (11) Tampa Bay Rays (83-66): They continue to make the Boston Red Sox sweat bullets. The Rays have officially clawed their way back into the stretch run. Special props are due for rookie starter Jeremy Hellickson and his nerves of steel.

5. (7) Texas Rangers (86-64): The Rangers keep winning but their rotation looks far less stable than it was entering the 2010 playoffs. What was a strength could be a liability this time.

6. (4) Arizona Diamondbacks (87-63): If Ian Kennedy wins his next start, he may unofficially become the most under-the-radar 20-game winner in major-league history.

7. (8) St. Louis Cardinals (81-68): Crucial series wins over the Brewers and Braves have vaulted them back into the playoff run. But can this team stay healthy long enough to make any noise come October? I doubt it.

8. (9) Los Angeles Angels (82-67): Their season ends with a three-game set at home to Texas. If Jered Weaver and Dan Haren start during that series, are the Halos the favorite to win the AL West?

9. (5) Milwaukee Brewers (87-63): The Brewers still look like the Phillies’ toughest NL challenger but their recent stumbles have let St. Louis off the mat. The Brewers also aren’t guaranteed home field in the NLDS anymore, which is a major concern given their 52-23 home record.

10. (12) San Francisco Giants (80-70): The five-game winning streak is nice but it’s probably too late. Arizona only needs to play .500 ball to guarantee itself the NL West crown.

11. (10) Atlanta Braves (86-64): They’re no longer a postseason lock, especially with Tommy Hanson still out with an injured shoulder. Even if they reach the big dance without him, can they win a series without him?

12. (6) Boston Red Sox (86-63): Who knew they’d ever fall this far? The truth is that Boston looks like the weakest AL contender at the moment. The pitching staff is too banged up.

13. (16) Toronto Blue Jays (75-74): Note the massive dropoff between the 12th and 13th-ranked teams in the rankings. Only 12 teams in baseball remain in hunt for eight playoff berths. The Jays keep doing their thing, hovering around .500 and giving their fans hope for a better 2012.

14. (22) Cincinnati Reds (74-76): There’s still enough offensive talent on this team that the Reds could contend next season if they bolster their pitching.

15. (26) Washington Nationals (71-79): Five straight wins for the Nats. They’re babying Stephen Strasburg upon his return and with good reason. With him and Jordan Zimmermann as a one-two pitching punch next season, could Washington post a winning record?

16. (20) Kansas City Royals (65-86): The Royals have a five-game winning streak of their own. But should would we put much stock in a team that only seems to play well when the games don’t matter anymore?

17. (21) Pittsburgh Pirates (68-82): It will be interesting to see if next year’s Pirates build on their strong first half or continue with their ugly second-half play from this season.

18. (18) Oakland Athletics (68-82): Josh Willingham’s 26 homers and 91 RBI are respectable given his team and park. Couldn’t a team like Atlanta have used his pop in a trade-deadline deal?

19. (28) Seattle Mariners (62-87): You can’t see it in the standings but the Mariners’ commitment to playing their youngsters could pay dividends next season.

20. (27) Baltimore Orioles (60-88): They’ve quietly been a thorny opponent for most AL teams over the last month. To have any hope for 2012, though, their pitching must improve. Among qualifiers, Jeremy Guthrie leads the team with a 4.22 ERA.

21. (17) Cleveland Indians (72-75)
22. (13) Los Angeles Dodgers (73-76)
23. (23) Colorado Rockies (70-79)
24. (25) Houston Astro (51-98)
25. (15) Chicago White Sox (73-76)
26. (19) Chicago Cubs (65-85)
27. (14) New York Mets (71-79)
28. (24) Florida Marlins (67-83)
29. (30) San Diego Padres (63-87)
30. (29) Minnesota Twins (59-89)

Categories
Soccer

English Premier League Preview | Arsenal vs. Blackburn

Arsenal has kicked off the 2011 year a bit disappointing, sitting in the middle of the table just under a month into the season. Meanwhile, the Blackburn Rovers are occupying the very bottom of the table at the 20 spot, trying to mount some sort of momentous charge to earn respect.

Now the two will square off for the first time this season on Saturday at Ewood Park, with Blackburn still chasing their first win of the season while the Gunners aim to build on their first success of the campaign.

Arsenal vs. Blackburn
Venue/Stadium: Ewood Park in England
Time/Date: 7:45, Saturday, September 17, 2011
Odds From: 5 Dimes
Moneyline: Arsenal -108, Blackburn +361, Draw +254
Spread (ATS): Arsenal -1/2, -111

Blackburn has lost three of their first four games of the 2011 Premier League season, including a 3-1 loss to Aston Villa and 2-1 heart wrenching loss to the Wolverhampton Wanderers.

The Rovers defense has been pedestrian through the first four games, and their goal keeper Paul Robinson has conceded seven goals.

Meanwhile, Arsenal’s defense looked like the escort service in their Aug. 28 matchup against Manchester United, conceding eight goals to the Premier League favorite. However, other than that game, they have only allowed two goals. That match against Manchester United killed the team’s momentum, and the 2-0 loss to Liverpool only added to their frustration.

Goal keeper Wojciech Szczesny, who Arsenal has put all their trust in for the past three years, has shown yet again why people laugh at the fact that the is still a starting between the sticks in the highest level of British football.

If Arsenal is ever to get over the hump, they still need to find an adequate replacement for Szczesny.
In the meantime, midfielder David Dunn has been a fierce and intimidating presence for Blackburn, but has failed to score a goal all year. He is exactly what the team needs if they are going to avoid the drop come year’s end, but he has to play up to his potential, and he hasn’t done that so far.

The Rovers have been beat up by Arsenal since making it into the Premier League, having lost nine times at home to the Gunners, the most times they’ve lost on their own ground than any other Premier League club.

Both side are kicking off their season at the lowest point in their Premier League history, and now will get a chance to redeem themselves against the other. Both also desperately need this win, as they have some tough matches down the road, and this would be a perfect stepping point for either team to get a push in the right direction.

Matt’s Prediction: Arsenal 1, Rovers 0 – History doesn’t lie, well, most of the time, and the Rovers have been on the bad side of it against Arsenal, especially in their home stadium. I don’t expect this to change as the Rovers have looked like the are destined for the cut since the season kicked off.

Categories
NCAA Football

Tennessee Volunteers vs. #16 Florida Gators Game Preview

Tennessee Volunteers vs. #16 Florida Gators
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville FL
Saturday, Sept. 17, 3:35 pm EST
NCAA Odds from Sportsbook.com:
MoneyLine: Tennessee +280, Florida -340
Spread: Tennessee +9.5, Florida -9.5
Over/Under: 50.5

This match-up maybe had more pizzazz in 1997 than it does today, but it is still a classic SEC East rivalry game with a massive TV audience and cuckoo fans. Florida is ranked only #16, rather pedestrian considering it has mostly been a national powerhouse over the past several seasons. The program had a lot of questions to answer going into this season, but has probably shut most people up after winning its first two games by a combined score of 80-3.

For its part, the Tennessee Volunteers are rebuilding a once proud football program. They have some youngsters – especially on offense – that are expediting this process. A band of sophomores: QB Tyler Bray, WRs Justin Hunter and Da’Rick Rogers are commanding a passing attack that ranks ninth in the nation. The Vols’ defense hasn’t been quite as stout as Florida’s, but the offense has put up even more points than the Gators (87 points combined) against better competition. Those stats might give Tennessee a little confidence going into The Swamp.

Still, that doesn’t erase the fact the Vols are travelling to Gainesville. Ben Hill Griffin Stadium is definitely one of the more intimidating places to play in the nation, and the Gators faithful really don’t like Tennessee. The Vols must be very careful to avoid this game getting out of hand quickly. Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps, two of Florida’s ultra-speedy options in the backfield (both players have the speed to be track and field sprint champions) are both averaging over seven yards per carry; the Gators could dump a couple touchdowns on you probably quicker than any team in the country – that result would be just like throwing blood in the water of a shark tank for the frenzied fans in The Swamp. True, Tennessee’s pass attack looks phenomenal, but the defense still has some work to do, so it will be in for a real challenge in Gainesville this weekend.

Tennessee needs to test Florida downfield, as the receivers (especially Hunter) have the speed to get downfield and Bray has a major league arm. Vols RB Tauren Poole is a solid player, but he isn’t a game-changer, so if Tennessee gets intimidated into running a conservative offense, it won’t pay off. The Vols’ vertical passing game is the strength of the team; they can’t deviate from it just because the Gators are a major player with a fast defensive unit.

Florida is definitely explosive, but QB John Brantley and the Gators have had some trouble in the redzone; slowing down Florida’s tempo is a viable strategy to knock it off its rhythm. Looking at the evidence of the second half of 2010 and the first two games this year, Tennessee is on its way back, but it still doesn’t have the talent and depth top-to-bottom that Florida has. The Gators have a much more imposing defense and if Bray turns the ball over more than once or twice, UT is in serious trouble.

This is a vintage rivalry game that brings back memories of Steve Spurrier, Peyton Manning, Tim Tebow, etc., yet it may be developing new tastiness with both of these teams looking so dominant lately. While a Tennessee upset on the road would make for bold headlines and a lovely story for any Gator-haters out there, that might still be more of a fairy tale than followers of the sherbet and white would care to admit.

If Tennessee continues on this path in the big picture, however, Rocky Top could have more to celebrate in upcoming seasons. After the mess the program was in following the Lane Kiffin saga, a little patience will go a long way in Knoxville.

Score Prediction: Florida 33, Tennessee 21
Over/Under Prediction: 54

Categories
Canadian Football

CFL Week 12 – Toronto Argonauts vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders

TORONTO ARGONAUTS (2-8) vs. SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS (3-7)
Date/Time: Saturday, September 17, 4:00 PM ET
Venue: Mosaic Stadium at Taylor Field, Regina, Saskatchewan
Broadcast: TSN
Argos vs. Riders Betting Lines from betonline.com
Spread: Riders -7
Moneyline: Argos +250: Riders -300
Over/Under: 50 ½ points

A Battle of surprising Basement Dwellers is on tap as the first game of a CFL Saturday double-header. Toronto is fresh off getting swept in a two game series with BC while the Roughriders are coming off an impressive sweep of Eastern Division leading Winnipeg. Saturday’s clash is a classic example of two teams going it totally opposite directions.

Toronto turned to their supposed savior QB Steven Jyles last week, less than a week after letting the ineffective Cleo Lemon go. Not a whole lot changed for Toronto in the win column or on the score board – they had to settle for just two field goals in their loss at BC. But with a game under his belt and the fact that Saskatchewan has a notoriously poor pass defense, there is some amount of optimism for the Argos.

Saskatchewan was basically left for dead but has shown signs of life in their last two outings – back-to-back wins against the best team in the CFL in the first 10 weeks of the season. Let’s call it the Andy Fantuz factor! Since Ken Miller came back to the sidelines to coach the team, the Riders have looked totally different. Darian Durant certainly looks better and Wes Cates is finally getting involved in the offense. The defense, despite its critics played especially well last week in creating three sacks and intercepting Buck Pierce a staggering five times.

Finally, the Saskatchewan Roughriders look like the team that represented the West in the Grey Cup two years in a row!

Betting Prediction: The Saskatchewan Roughriders have won two straight games overall and have won five of their last seven meetings with the Argonauts. The Riders are rolling and the Argos are stuck in the garage. This game won’t be close folks – easy choice.

Pick: Saskatchewan Roughriders -7

Categories
NCAA Football

Troy Trojans vs. #14 Arkansas Razorbacks Game Preview

Troy Trojans vs. #14 Arkansas Razorbacks
Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville AR
Saturday, Sept. 17, 7:30 pm EST
NCAA Odds from Sportsbook.com:
MoneyLine: OFF
Spread: Troy +23, Arkansas -23
Over/Under: 63.5

There’s no dancing around it: the Arkansas Razorbacks have been an offensive juggernaut through the first two weeks of the 2011 season. Albeit against Missouri State and New Mexico, the Hogs have scored a ridiculous 103 combined points through two games. The Hogs also rank eighth in the nation in passing, 37th in rushing, third in points for and fourth in points against.

The Trojans (Troy, not USC, thank goodness) provide Arkansas’ last “tune-up” game before the SEC slate hits hard and fast. No one has been able to slow down the Razorbacks yet, and Troy shouldn’t strike too much fear – the Trojans are coming off a 43-19 loss to Clemson. The defense got torched against Clemson, and the Razorbacks’ attack is much more imposing than even the Tigers’. Hogs pivot Tyler Wilson has done everything asked of him and more in replacing NFL-bound Ryan Mallett; oftentimes Wilson has been pulled in these routs and backup Brandon Mitchell has come in. Even Mitchell has gotten in on the action, dumping on 218 yards and a pair of TDs in mop-up action.

Arkansas has suffered injuries at the RB position, but it hasn’t seemed to matter. Current starter Ronnie Wingo has played just fine, averaging five yards a carry and providing a different look when Wilson or Mitchell isn’t hucking the ball to Arkansas’ fine stable of receivers. Senior WR Jarius Wright and lanky junior Cobi Hamilton are leading the way – both are pushing 200 receiving yards through a pair of games and are averaging over 15 yards per catch. The defense hasn’t had a stiff test yet, but the unit that was the lone worry of this football team for years has only given up 10 points through its first two match-ups.

Of course, it will be impossible to keep up this torrid pace when the Auburns and the Texas A&Ms and the South Carolinas come to town. But Arkansas is setting very good habits in its early-season non-conference schedule that should carry over to a campaign Hogs fans believe will have their team competing for an SEC West division crown.

To say it for the point of saying it, for the impossible to happen in Fayetteville this Saturday night, Troy would have to deploy its strong passing game (37th in the NCAA) and its defense would have to pull out a series of miracles in order to slow down the Arkansas attack. The Hogs will probably dump a couple of early scores on the visitors, and it shouldn’t be long before it spirals out of control from there. Troy is usually a contender in the Sun Belt Conference, but that doesn’t change the fact that the Trojans play in the Sun Belt and Arkansas is an SEC West (the strongest conference and the strongest division in college football) contender.

It is silly to anoint Arkansas as all-world after it has only played an FCS team and perhaps the worst team in the Bowl Subdivision, but the way the Hogs have been crushing opponents has been truly impressive. If you get bored watching a cakewalk football game, maybe this isn’t the game for you but conversely if you like offense, it could also be pretty entertaining.

Score Prediction: Arkansas 47, Troy 14
Over/Under Prediction: 60

Categories
NCAA Football

Navy Midshipmen vs. South Carolina Gamecocks Preview + Free Predictions

Midshipmen vs Gamecocks Handicapping Preview

South Carolina’s Week 3 game against the Naval Academy offers a great opportunity for the beleaguered Carolina defense to have a resurgence and get on track after allowing 79 points over the first two weeks to East Carolina and Georgia.

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