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I'm taking the points with the Rice Owls on Saturday afternoon (3:30 PM ET @ Reliant Stadium). The Longhorns will be a "player" in the Big-12 South again this season, which means they'll be in the BCS title picture, at least for a while. But I don't believe Texas will steamroll through the experienced Owls. At least not enough to cover the big number. Rice had practically nobody back on offense when they began last season. In fact, no less than 14 underclassmen started on both sides of the line of scrimmage. But this year's edition returns eight starters on offense and nine more on the defensive side of the football, although that number decreases to eight due to an injury. Of course, the offense will be led by RB Sam McGuffie, a transfer from Ann Arbor, part of a duo-RB approach. I expect a decent running game behind a veteran o-line. The Owls will also be able to pass the ball and run the ball from the QB position this season, with a much improved QB corps, if you will. I say "corps" because we could see three different QBs under center before this one goes final. They have a pass-first QB and a couple of signal-callers who can also create with their feet. Added to the mix is former Kansas WR coach David Beaty, who takes over the OC position. Beaty was an assistant here in 2006. Defensively, David Bailiff's squad returns no less than 24 of their top 26 tacklers from a season ago. Texas will be potent once again, but I don't believe they'll "have their way" quite so easily in the opener. The offensive line starts a new center, ORG, and ORT. And while Mack Brown normally just reloads, it will take a game or two to get this unit where he wants it. Will Rice win outright? Not likely, obviously. But I do believe they'll land comfortably inside the posted number. I'm taking the points with Rice on Saturday. Thanks! GL! Scott.
I'm laying the points with Mizzou, Saturday's Morning Massacre. The Tigers have owned this series, including a 5-0 SU/ATS mark in St. Louis. Last season, the Tigers had to replace a ton of starters and stars. The Illini, meanwhile, were hoping for "big" things. As they quickly found out, hoping for "big" things under the direction of HC Ron Zook is unwise. Zook, one of college football's top recruiters, just can't get his players on the same page when they take the field. This season, Missouri returns 16 starters, (8 on both sides), including a vaunted offensive attack led by QB Blaine Gabbert. It's the Illini who're "rebuilding," if you will. The Tigers did a terrific job getting to the 8-win mark with an inexperienced team last year, landing a bid in the Texas Bowl. In 2010, Mizzou is one of my "darkhorse" teams. I truly believe, with a little luck, the Tigers can dethrone the media-darling Huskers in the Big-12 North. The conference schedule is tough, which makes a winnable game like this all that more important. Gary Pinkel will remind his team that this is a "must-win" tilt. And with McNeese State, San Diego State, and Miami-Ohio on the non-conference slate, anything less than a win here to jumpstart a 4-0 run would be highly disappointing. I mentioned Mizzou has won all five meetings in this series since it moved to St. Louis. They have done so by an average score of 37-24. In fact, they have hung 40, 52, and 37 points on the Illini in the last three meetings. Illinois is just 3-12 SU in their last 15 games, allowing a whopping 29.5 ppg. Zook's Illini were -42.3 ypg in conference action last season and I'd venture to say that Mizzou is better than seven of the 11 Big-10 teams this season. The Tigers have done whatever they want on offense in the last three meetings. They averaged 473.3 yards per game on 5.89 yards per play. The Tigers have averaged over 4.6 yards per carry in the last two meetings, and former QB Chase Daniel & current QB Blaine Gabbert have eaten the Illini pass defense alive. Over the last three seasons, Missouri has connected on 88 of 132 passes for 1001 yards, and a ridiculous, 9-to-1, TD-INT ratio. That's a 67% completion rate while averaging 333.7 yards passing per game. Gabbert tore up the Illini last season, his first replacing Daniel and he has a much better surrounding cast this season, while the Illini defense is not expected to be as "good" as last year's. Illinois has new coordinators, but Ron Zook is still calling the shots. Mizzou is in a couple of nice situations on Saturday. First of all, as mentioned, they have won and covered five straight meetings in St. Louis. Also, CFB favorites of more than 10 points, but less than 21.5 points, are on a 35-11 ATS run, (first 2 games of the season), provided they return at least eight defensive starters. Missouri fits the bill. I'm laying the points with the Tigers, my Morning Massacre. Thanks! GL! Scott.
NCAA-F | Sep 04, 2010 Washington Huskies vs. BYU Cougars
I'm taking the points with the Washington Huskies on Saturday. If it weren't for the fact that BYU plays (at least one more season) in the mediocre MWC, this team would be in for a fall in the standings in a better conference. I'm not knocking the Cougars, TCU, and Utah, but after the "big-three," the conference is really a mess. The Cougs will begin 2010 having to replace a lot of star players, including QB Max Hall and top-shelf RB Harvey Unga who left the team after violating school policy. BYU will likely start at least five underclassmen on offense, including at least two freshmen at the skill positions and a RFR at center. It's not going to be an easy evening in Provo against an improving Washington squad. While all of the talk out of Seattle is about QB Jake Locker and what should be an outstanding offense, it's the improvement on defense that should take this team to the next level. U-Dub returns a total of 18 starters, including eight to the stop-unit. The Huskies are extremely strong at defensive tackle, and eight of their top nine players return in the secondary. I truly believe the DT's, playing out of the 4-3 style are going to cause BYU's young offense serious problems all afternoon. As far as Locker and the attack is concerned, they should have little trouble at all moving the ball on a consistent basis. BYU's defense returns only five starters and they're extremely thin and inexperienced at linebacker. The Huskies have the ammunition to exploit the Cougars front seven all night long. And don't forget, a better BYU defense gave up 54 points in a 26 point home loss to Florida State last season, and gave up 38 at home to TCU in an ugly 31 point home loss. If you just looked at what's on paper and didn't have to include public perception, you'd think the Huskies were at least a 7 point road fave. But being overrated at home, at least spread-wise, has been the case for the Cougars, who're just 2-7 ATS in their last nine in Provo. Washington HC Steve Sarkisian is preaching to all who'll listen that the "sky is the limit" for this year's Huskies. I believe he'll start the season with a big road win. I'm taking the points with Washington, my Ultimate Shocker. Thanks! GL! Scott.
I'm laying the points with Notre Dame on Saturday. It used to be a virtual given that if you laid points with the Irish, you'd have to lay an inflated number. But I don't believe that's the case at all in this matchup. In fact, I believe the value in this contest is on Notre Dame. HC Brian Kelly is going to have his team extremely motivated to perform at their top level right out of the blocks. And what better way to do it than against a Purdue team with a ton of question marks. Their offensive line is young and without a lot of depth. Expected starting QB Robert Marve (Miami transfer) is new to the first string role at Purdue. Marve started 11 games for the Hurricanes two seasons ago, but threw for just 1,293 yards on 55% passing, with 9 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. The signal-caller won't have the RB he was supposed to this season because Ralph Bolden tore an ACL in the spring game and may miss the entire season. He ranked third in the Big-10 in rushing a season ago, so this is a big loss. The defense returns six starters, but the "returnees" are all up front. All four starters in the secondary must be replaced. In fact, only one DB returns with over seven career tackles to this unit. This is great news for new QB Dayne Crist and a talented and speedy receiving corps. No Jimmy Clausen and no Golden Tate? No problem against the Boilermakers' secondary. And then there's the Irish defense. Look for an attacking style of "D" out of the Irish 3-4. Nine of 11 starters return to the stop-unit, and camp has gone extremely well for Kelly and his defensive staff. This is not your old-fashioned, sluggish Notre Dame team. Charlie Weiss must be given credit for bringing speed back to South Bend. He just didn't know how to get the most out of his players on a consistent basis. I believe Brian Kelly does have the know-how, and he'll want to show it off in front of the home fans in game one. The Irish own a big talent edge and they are the much healthier team. And even though they'll be under the direction of a new coaching staff, they're the team with more answers in this contest and less questions. Again, it's not often when the price has been "cheap" in regards to the Irish. But when you consider Purdue's injury and graduation losses, including the brand new secondary, I believe the value lies with the boys from South Bend. And one thing we know for sure...if the Irish are winning big, Brian Kelly will not let-up for a moment. I'm laying the points with Notre Dame. Thanks! GL! Scott.
I'm laying the points with Fresno State on Saturday night. Pat Hill truly looks forward to taking on "big boy" teams, especially in front of the home folks. Unfortuantely, only four BCS teams have agreed to play in Fresno over the last seven season. And in this particular game, Hill's troops will go into the contest feeling like they should have beaten their opponent a season ago. After all, they finished the game with a 25-15 first down advantage, and outgained the Bearcats, piling up 443 total yards. It was a case of statistical domination as Fresno ran 84 offensive plays to 42 for Cincinnati. But one key play turned the game around. Fresno chose to go for a 4th and 2 at the Cinci 6-yard line early in the fourth quarter. But Ryan Colburn's pass was intercepted, and UC scored on a 23-yard TD pass shortly thereafter. RB Ryan Mathews "picked 'em up and put 'em down" for 158 yards rushing in the contest as Fresno had their way with UC up front. Mathews took his game to the NFL, but the new stable of RBs will run behind a veteran and talented offensive line. In fact, nine of the top 10 return up front for Pat Hill. The proven blockers will line-up against a defensive line that returns just one of four starters. Let's not forget, that while Cinci ranked in the top five at one point of the season, their defense left a lot to be desired. The Bearcats allowed 44, 36, 21, and 45 points over their final four games, then got smacked by Florida, losing 51-24 in the Sugar Bowl. There are some holes on the stop-unit again this season. Meanwhile, Zach Collaros is an experienced QB. But he will face a defense that returns five of their front seven. The bottom line is that I don't believe Cinci will be able to "keep up" with Fresno. I like the coaching advantage, also. Obviously, Pat Hill's system has been in place for 14 years. And while new Cinci HC Butch Jones comes with solid credentials, the first month of the season will likely be a learning experience for his players. And it sure doesn't help to open things by traveling across the country and playing in front of the rabid Bulldog fan base. Most importantly, it's a fan base that has grown used to being treated with wins. Hill's teams have won almost 80% of their home games since his arrival. They're also 10-1 in their last 11 home openers. The Bulldogs look to build off of last season's 8-5 SU squad that finished with an invite to their second straight New Mexico Bowl. Pat Hill is looking for bigger results this season and believes he has the team to get there. Fresno has a bye on deck, so there will be no "look-ahead" on Saturday. This is a huge game for FSU's season, despite being a non-conference game, and I believe they'll come through with a win and cover. A better Cincinnati version failed to cover their last five games last season...make it six straight spread defeats in this one. I'm laying the points with Fresno State. Thanks! GL! Scott.
SERVICE BIO
Scott Spreitzer is now in his 18th year of handicapping and can currently be seen nationally on the Proline TV show, which airs on football weekends at 7 am ET on the USA cable network.
Scott is the ONLY handicapper to advance to 3 straight finals in the Sunset Station Casino Invitational in Las Vegas. In fact, he's the all-time Sunset Station Casino Invitational's WIN CHAMPION! And what's most impressive about Scott's record is that it was compiled with a high volume of selections. Scott released over 500 NFL & college football plays in 5 seasons, and finished with an awesome 59% ATS winning mark, as documented by the Sunset Station Casino and the Las Vegas betting public.
Besides being a champion handicapper, Scott co-hosted the legendary Stardust Line radio show for six years and was the weekly football analyst on the Pete Rose radio show. Scott has also hosted the ESportsDaily radio show, which aired in over 60 U.S. cities.
Currently, Scott is the featured handicapper for numerous radio broadcasts around the country, and has interviewed a bevy of sports figures past & present.
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