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The University of Wisconsin applies to one of my best early season college football systems and I'm going to ride the Badgers straight to the bank late Saturday night.
Since 1980, game one road favorites priced at -10 or more are a decent 62-40-1 ATS provided they’re matched up against an opponent that is playing their season opener as well. If our “play on” side won eight or more games last year and is tackling a foe that won at least three or more game last season, this technical gem improves to a powerful 32-13 ATS! The Badgers fit this general situation and the awesome tightener perfectly.
Wisky doesn't get the chance to play a lot of non-conference road games. But, when the Badgers get the opportunity, they usually take care of business. Since 1984, Wisconsin has play 27 true road games against teams outside of the Big 10 conference and posted a respectable 18-8-1 SU and 17-9 ATS record. Equally impressive, the Badgers have quietly won 12 consecutive lid lifters and averaged a whopping 33.3 points per game in the process!
UNLV does return eight starters on both sides of the ball. Unfortunately, new head coach Bobby Hauck is making major changes with regards to personnel and the Rebels will endure some growing pains. Offensively, UNLV will move from its wide-open spread attack to a more physical I-formation that will feature a sound running game. Defensively, the Rebels will use a 4-3 under the direction of new coordinator Kraig Paulson and hopefully tighten up a rush "D" that got ripped apart for 220.6 yards per game last season. As you know, the Badgers can run the ball with the best of them and they'll test that UNLV front seven early and often.
Under Hauck's direction, the Runnin' Rebels will be an improved program in 2010. Unfortunately, tackling a Badgers bunch in the first game out of the shoot is a tall order. On the offensive interior, UW averages 323 pounds and they'll have no trouble controlling the line of scrimmage from start to finish in this one. Take Wisconsin. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.
NCAA-F | Sep 04, 2010 Washington Huskies vs. BYU Cougars
If you take a look at Washington's log, you'll notice that the Huskies haven't won a road game since their November 3rd, 2007 victory at Stanford. Since that win, UW has dropped 12 straight on foreign soil (3-8 ATS). That dismal run is certainly respected but it won't be enough to pull me off head coach Steve Sarkisian's troops on Saturday night.
With regards to X's and O's, I've broken this game down a number of ways and I still keep coming back to one glaring mismatch. Washington will be led by a Heisman contender at quarterback in Jake Locker while BYU will use the dual quarterback threat of true freshman Jake Heaps and last year's backup Riley Nelson. Locker won't have to go at it alone either. Nine other offensive starters will join Jake to form what very well could be the Pac Ten's most explosive offense this season.
My college football database likes UW here too. Since 1980, road dogs priced at +6 or less are a profitable 88-50 ATS provided this is their first road affair of the season and they are fighting with revenge from last year or two years back. In 2008's season opener, the Cougars strolled into Huskies country and left with a hard-fought one-point victory.
Under Sarkisian's direction, UW went from an ugly 0-12 SU in 2008 to 5-7 SU last year. The Huskies would like to make a statement here on Saturday night with an upset victory over the Cougars. UW QB Locker will make sure that mission gets accomplished. Take Washington plus the points. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.
Northwestern couldn’t get the job done against SEC member Auburn in the Outback Bowl on New Year’s Day. The War Eagle won a wild one over the Purple Cats 38-35 in overtime. Make no bones about it, head coach Pat Fitzgerald (aka “Fitz”) will lead his improved Wildcats to a victory over Vanderbilt on Saturday night.
The Commodores are a young team and they’ll take the field in Nashville without head coach Bobby Johnson. In mid-July, Johnson stepped down for personal reasons. Robbie Caldwell will take over on the sidelines for Johnson and he could pick up a few more grey hairs before this contest is over. If injuries to tailback Warren Norman and safety Sean Richardson weren’t enough, Caldwell stated that as many as 12 true freshman could see action against Northwestern. That will lead to trouble matched up against a Purple Cats unit that returns 16 starters – eight on offense and six on defense. Let’s take a look inside the numbers.
Quietly, Northwestern has cruised as road chalk posting a profitable 14-5 SU and 13-6 ATS record. This team trend is at its best when the Cats are not matched up against a foe that arrives with momentum off a straight up win – now 13-2 SU and ATS! Foreign soil hasn’t been a problem for the Wildcats either. According to my college football database, Coach Fitz and the boys are a profitable 54-34 ATS on the road including a blistering 32-12 ATS in this role provided their opponent does not enter off a SU victory.
Fading Vanderbilt at home in non-conference action shouldn’t be trouble for anyone. Since 1988, the Commodores are a weak 10-23 ATS inside Vanderbilt Stadium tackling non-SEC foes. Also, as a competitively priced single-digit home underdog, the ‘Dores have struggled notching a dismal 6-27 SU and 12-20-1 ATS mark including a nasty 1-10 SU and 3-7-1 ATS mark in this role at game four or less.
Coach Fitz hasn’t lost a season opener since taking over in Evanston and his program comes in healthy, experience and with more stability. It’s time for a little Purple Pride here men! Take Northwestern! Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.
Notre Dame is going to be a good football team by the end of the season. New head coach Brian Kelly has done a phenomenal job getting the Fighting Irish back into good physical shape and they’re starting to find confidence they never really had under former coach Charlie Weis. Unfortunately, in this battle for the coveted Shillelagh Trophy, Purdue will provide the rebuilding Irish team with a tremendous challenge.
It won’t be tough for the Boilermakers to find motivation for this game. If you recall, ND QB Jimmy Clausen hit TE Kyle Rudolph for a touchdown pass with 25 ticks left on the clock as the Irish escaped Ross-Ade Stadium last year with a stunning 24-21 victory.
According to the history book, the Boilers are an ugly 1-13 SU in their last 14 visits to Notre Dame Stadium. That fact is noted. However, this Purdue team really started to peak as 2009 ended picking up victories in four of its last six games. One of those wins came against a Ohio State team that could very easily be one of 2010’s best programs. I’ve got a hunch that momentum will carry over and the Boilermakers will be able to find some success against a UND team that has installed new schemes on both sides of the ball.
There are technical reasons that support this investment too. Notre Dame has really struggled as a home favorite posting a weak 30-51-1 ATS record including just 4-12 ATS in this role matched up against a Big 10 foe. As a double-digit favorite, the Irish have lost their fight notching a bankroll-busting 5-13 ATS mark including just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 at home in this role. On the visitor’s side of the field, Purdue has found success priced as a touchdown dog (+7) or more posting a reliable 33-22 ATS mark including a perfect 7-for-7 in this role in non-conference action.
The Irish have come favored 24 times against Big 10 foes dating back to 1994 and were only able to cash five winning tickets. The Boilermakers haven’t forgotten about last year’s near miss and they’ll be out for a little payback on Saturday afternoon. Grab all the points you can here men! Take Purdue! Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.
Early in the season when non-conference games are at their peak, the linemaker will post a monster number hoping you will shy away from it. Vegas has done that here by making Texas a whopping 30-point favorite over Rice. I respect the fact that the Owls have 18 starters back. Unfortunately, this Longhorns bunch is decisively better on both sides of the ball and they can name the final here.
UT has absolutely dominated this series posting wins in 38 of its last 39 against the Owls and the last six meetings haven’t even been close. The Longhorns have cruised by margins of 41, 23, 41, 45, 44 and 42 points respectively. That’s an average beating of 39.3 points per game! Texas has won 10 straight season openers as well. Head coach Mack Brown’s kids have won easily by margins of 42, 34, 27, 59, 65, 57, 49, 8, 42 and 39 points! That’s an average whipping of 42.2 points per game!
Rice hasn’t really opened well either. As an underdog in their first game of the season, the Owls haven’t been worth a hoot notching a feeble 2-14 SU and 4-12 ATS record including 0-4 ATS in this role priced at +18 or more. To make matters worse, as an underdog of +21 or more, Rice has failed to impress posting a timid 10-21-2 ATS mark.
Since this pointspread is a little high, I checked my college football database to see how big favorites did in season-opening games. Surprisingly, game one favorites priced at -28 or more are a respectable 9-3 ATS dating back to the 1980 season provided they are playing on the road or at a neutral site. This contest will be played at Houston’s Reliant Stadium and that means the Longhorns apply!
As a favorite of -27 or more, UT has posted a rewarding 19-9-1 ATS record in its last 29 tries. The last time the Longhorns took the field they were forced to leave without a National Championship. Losing the big one to Alabama will only motivate the ‘Horns more in 2010. Lay the lumber here men. Take Texas! Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.
NCAA-F | Sep 04, 2010 Western Michigan vs. Michigan State
Don’t think for a second that Michigan State will take Western Michigan lightly. Last year, the Spartans hosted another team from the MAC in their second game of the season and got shocked when Central Michigan (+14’) strolled right into Spartan Stadium and pulled off the miraculous 29-27 upset! Counting that blemish, MSU owns a spectacular 16-1 SU mark (8-5 ATS) against MAC foes including a 49-14 victory over the Broncos early last November.
Historically speaking, this has been a tough spot for MAC teams. According to my college football database, Mid American Conference underdogs running in their season opener are a feeble 2-44 SU and 13-32-1 ATS provided they are matched up against a Big 10 opponent. That doesn’t bode well for WMU. Neither does this: Since 1999, Michigan State has ripped off 11 consecutive victories in its home opener and has won those battles by an average of 23.4 points per game!
Big dog roles haven’t been the Broncos bread-and-butter either. In fact, as a pup priced at +12 or more, Western is a nasty 2-17 SU and 5-13-1 ATS in its last 19 tries. That’s one reason why I don’t care too much for WMU in this non-conference affair. Here’s one more: Dating back to the 1995 season, Western has dropped 15 consecutive road openers (4-8 ATS) by an average of 24.3 points per game!
State has Florida Atlantic on deck at Ford Field in Detroit next Saturday before its September 18th revenge matchup with Notre Dame so there’s really not much to distract them here. Last year, Spartans quarterback Kirk Cousins shredded the Broncos secondary completing 22-of-25 passes for a career-high 353 yards. Don’t be surprised if Cousins duplicates that performance against this soft WMU defense. Take Michigan State! Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.
SERVICE BIO
A professional handicapper at Team Stryker Sports since 1984, Tom Stryker offers you 25 years of experience. Tom is known for his strong work ethic and his commitment to delivering the best analysis available. With regards to style, Stryker likes to use the perfect blend of two decades of experience as well as emotional, statistical, and technical support to back up his selections. Back in the early 90's, Tom helped assemble one of the most powerful football and basketball databases in the nation. This incredible piece of software holds over 100 profitable situations with ATS records topping 90 percent. Located in the Midwest just a few miles from the University of Notre Dame, Stryker is tuned into the Irish as well as the Big Ten and MAC Conferences. College Football, Major League Baseball as well as the NBA and NFL playoffs are considered his strengths. But keep in mind a profitable run can happen at any time in any sport when Stryker gets into one of his capping zones. In 2000, Tom reached the ultimate peak when he bested over 100 other professional handicappers, and finished the season ranked No. 1 in college football (28-13 for 68.3% record) as monitored by the Sports Monitor of Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. In 2001, Tom incredibly repeated that feat by finishing No. 1 in college football with a solid 24-15 for 61.5% mark! To date, Stryker is the only handicapper to win back-to-back college football handicapping titles as documented by the Sports Monitor. Since going pro, Tom has recorded numerous other Top 10 finishes. Tom is also the editor and publisher of the Pre-Game Report - one of the best football newsletters in the industry! Vince Lombardi, one of the greatest football coaches ever, once said, �The harder you work, the harder it is to surrender.� When you do business with Tom Stryker you can expect three things: experience, professionalism and effort.
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