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• NCAAF ON COMMANDING 6-1-1 (85.7%) RUN • • NFL 10-STAR TOP REPORTS a MASSIVE 13-2 YTD • • NFL Shows Big PROFITS in 8 of the last 9 Weeks • • NBA Plays a POWERFUL 9-4 ATS (69.2%) Run •
Matt went 2-1 for a second straight night on Friday as he nailed yet another football report, this time cashing the MAC Championship ‘Under’ with ease!
Fargo is closing the CFB season in style with a 6-1-1 record (85.7%) his last 8 reports! He puts this to the test with a MASSIVE Saturday card!
CHAMPIONSHIP SATURDAY PROVIDES THREE TITLE WINNERS (10* CUSA – 9* SEC – 9* BIG XII)
It is Championship Saturday and let Fargo be the one to guide you into bowl season with a slew of Winners! Topping the list on Saturday is the #1 CUSA Report this season as Matt has the Winner in the CUSA Championship between Houston and East Carolina! It is backed by TREMENDOUS 20-1 ATS (95.2%) Team Angles! Early High Noon Kickoff! Watch and win again with Matt on ESPN!
Also Posted for Championship Saturday:
**9** SEC CHAMPIONSHIP WINNER *80% ANGLES*
**9** BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP **ATS BLOWOUT**
**ALL ACCESS ** CFB CHAMPIONSHIP SATURDAY
SUNDAY NFL DIVISIONAL REPORT TESTS 13-2 ATS (86.7%) YTD RUN (DIVISIONAL REPORTS PERFECT 5-0 YTD)
With the Seattle Win Sunday, Matt improved to a STUPENDOUS 13-2 ATS (86.7%) with his NFL 10* Reports YTD! There are only 6 games on the Sunday schedule that are division games and he has another MONSTER BREWING! Matt has released (5) TOP 10* Divisional Plays and he is a PERFERCT 5-0 in those games! Do NOT miss the 6th straight Winner! The huge NFL run is extended Sunday!
Matt has shown a profit in 8 of the last 9 weeks and he is going to extend his profitable run with another big card! He has 5 games Sunday and all are yours right here!
FULL CARD POSTED FOR NFL WEEK 13
**10** NFL TOP DIVISIONAL PLAY *13-2 YTD*
**3-GAME** NFL TRIPLE PLAY ***26-12 RUN***
**9** NFL PRIMETIME SNF **63.5% NFL RUN**
**ALL ACCESS** FIVE NFL WINNERS FOR SUNDAY
***Published Streaks (through 12/04)***
• All Sports Overall Plays 25-18 L43 58%
• Main Leagues Top Plays 17-9 L26 65%
• Football Top Plays 16-10 L26 62%
• Football Top Plays 4-1 L5 80%
• NCAA-F Overall Plays 4-1 L5 80%
• NFL Top Plays 21-10 L31 68%
• NFL Overall Plays 5-2 L7 71%
• NBA Overall Plays 30-20 L50 60%
• NBA Top Plays 105-74 L179 59%
Play Rating will be displayed in each title since no one rates games the same.
**10**
This is the “BEST of the Best” …These ratings are not frequent as they are THE TOP PLAY of all TOP PLAYS released. There is nothing higher than this.
**9**
This is the “BEST of the Rest”…these plays are just a notch below the **10** Reports and narrowly missed out on “Best of the Best” status.
**8**
This is a high-tiered TOP PLAY release and these are not released very often. These are equivalent to Game of the Month selections.
**7**
This is a low-tiered TOP PLAY release and these are released less frequently than his **8** Reports. These are equivalent to Game of the Week selections.
**5**
This is a regular selection and should be played at your normal wagering level. The majority of releases as part of a big card will be based on this unit.
**3**
This is a Low Rated selection equivalent to a Free Play. All Free plays will have a rating as no ‘opinions’ are released.
Fargo’s **9** NFL PRIMETIME SNF **63.5% NFL RUN**
The NFL has been SCORCHING HOT this season as it shown a profit 8 out of the last 9 weeks and Matt ends Week 13 with another Winner! New Orleans came though on MNF and Primetime TV NFL has been a HOT for years! Fargo extends his current 33-19-5 (63.5%) NFL Primetime Run backed by a TREMENDOUS 41-13 ATS (75.9%) Power Situation! Watch and Win once again with Fargo!
Fargo’s **10** NFL #1 DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR
With the Seattle Win Sunday, Matt improved to a STUPENDOUS 13-2 ATS (86.7%) with his NFL 10* Reports YTD! There are only six games on the Sunday schedule that are division games and he has another MONSTER BREWING! Matt has released (5) Divisional GOY Reports and he is a PERFERCT 5-0 in those games! Do NOT miss the 6th straight Winner! The huge NFL run is extended Sunday!
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Starts
NFL | Dec 06, 2009 Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers
Carolina’s season pretty much came to an end last week in New York with that loss to the Jets. The Panthers season was disappointing from the start as it got out of the gates 0-3 before trying to put a run together but it was really too late by then even though the season was just getting started. The play of quarterback Jake Delhomme was a real problem early on and he settled down some prior to last week but against the Jets he was a turnover machine once again. Some of that may had to do with a broken finger that will keep him out this week. Matt Moore will be making his first start since 2007 while DeAngelo Williams is questionable and his absence would hurt the offense even more. This team has pretty much tossed it in for the season after coming in with such high expectations. The Buccaneers are having a worse season at 1-10 but this team is not giving up and still playing extremely hard. Tampa Bat nearly picked up its second win of the season last week in Atlanta and three of the last four weeks have been very competitive games with one of those resulting in a win. Since Josh Freeman was put in at quarterback, new life has come into the offense. He has a 76.5 passer rating which is not bad for a rookie following his best game of the season last week against the Falcons where he posted a 118.5 rating. Carolina does have a better defense than Atlanta does but the Buccaneers have the edge of seeing Carolina for the3 second time. Tampa Bay played very well against the Atlanta rushing attack last week and it can carry that over into this one as it is no secret that the Panthers are going to run the ball no matter who is in the backfield. Since head coach Raheem Morris took over the defensive play calling, the Buccaneers have brought back the Cover 2 defense as their base scheme and last week they brought a lot of pressure with a variety of blitzes and stunts up front. On the other side, the Buccaneers need to establish a running game as well and should be able to against the Panthers who are allowing 131.5 ypg on the ground which is 26th in the NFL. Tampa Bay falls into a simple but effective situation. Play on road teams in the second half of the season after one or more consecutive wins against the spread while possessing a winning percentage on the season of .250 or less. This situation is 29-5 ATS (85.3 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential coming in at lass that a field goal. Carolina is 8-18 ATS under head coach John Fox in games following two or more consecutive losses while the Buccaneers come in a solid 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog between 3.5 and 10 points. 3* Tampa Bay Buccaneers
With the Seattle Win Sunday, Matt improved to a STUPENDOUS 13-2 ATS (86.7%) with his NFL 10* Reports YTD! There are only six games on the Sunday schedule that are division games and he has another MONSTER BREWING! Matt has released (5) Divisional GOY Reports and he is a PERFERCT 5-0 in those games! Do NOT miss the 6th straight Winner! The huge NFL run is extended Sunday!
**8** CBB LATE NIGHT BAILOUT *100% ANGLES* Nevada returns to the west coast following an east coast trip where it went 0-2 but comes in with some confidence after playing toe-to-toe with North Carolina as it lost by just seven points in a game that was tight throughout. A win would have been nice but it is a performance that can last a while. Armon Johnson scored 20 points while Luke Babbitt tossed in 15 points in the losing effort and I expect both of those players to have huge games tonight. They will be the two best players on the floor from both sides and they are labeled as NBA prospects and that is rare for a team from a smaller conference to have more than one player fit that category. The Wolf Pack are 0-3 on the road but two of those losses have come against nationally ranked opponents, rival UNLV being the other besides the Tar Heels. Those are two tough games but they are better off for it. For the season, Nevada is shooting 46.1 percent from the floor which is very good considering that the Wolf Pack have played the third toughest schedule in the country thus far. Pacific is coming off a big road win at Fresno St. in its last game to improve its record to 5-1 on the season. The Tigers are projected as a middle of the pack team in the Big West Conference as they return only two starters after losing their top four scorers from a season ago. They are 3-0 at home but this is definitely the biggest challenge yet and it comes against a team seeking some payback. Nevada lost this meeting at home last season by eight points as it shot just 4-20 (20 percent) from long range and Johnson having a horrible shooting night. The really big thing I do not like about Pacific is the fact that it is shooting a putrid 58.2 percent from the free throw line which is the 14th worst in all of Division I and that encompasses 347 teams. With a line this small, that type of shooting can kill a win and a cover as it only takes a few misses which the Tigers are showing they are more than capable of. Nevada is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games after one or more consecutive losses while Pacific is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games coming off a win as an underdog. 8* Nevada Wolf Pack
NBA | Dec 05, 2009 Utah Jazz vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY *10-5 NBA RUN* This is a real tough spot for Utah. The Jazz played last night and had a relatively easy win against Indiana thanks to a big first quarter. That was the sixth straight home game for Utah who has not played a game on the road since November 19th at San Antonio. That is a span of 15 straight days of staying at home and that is huge in the NBA so it is no wonder the Jazz went 5-1 in those games. Making matters even worse is the fact that Utah has San Antonio on deck at home on Monday so coming off that huge homestand and looking ahead to another big game means that Utah wants no part of playing lowly Minnesota. With New Jersey’s win last night, Minnesota is creeping closer to that worst record in the NBA but the Timberwolves have been much more competitive of late. After defeating Denver as 14.5-point underdogs on the road, they have put together a three-game cover streak and this is significant since Minnesota went on a 1-10 ATS run prior to that. That included a 0-6 ATS mark at home but a loss to Memphis by a bucket on Wednesday ended that string as well. Timberwolves forward Kevin Love made his season debut seven weeks after he broke his left hand in a preseason game. He delivered an 11-point, 11-rebound double-double while playing half the game off the bench. His return is big as it adds more depth to the frontcourt and actually makes it a strength now. While Utah won three of the four meetings last season, Minnesota covered three of the four meetings and not a whole lot has changed since last season with each team. Utah is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games in the second of back-to-back games while Minnesota is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight games in the same situation. Also Utah is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games as a road favorite between 5.0 and 10.5 points. 9* Minnesota Timberwolves
**10** CBB #1 REVENGE DECEMBER PLAY *HUGE* I am going right back against North Carolina after that performance it had against Michigan St. The Tar Heels played a great game as they shot an incredible 57.9 percent from the floor including 50 percent from long range. I will go out on a whim and say those numbers will not be repeated. North Carolina could not miss yet the game was not totally decided until the final minute of the game as the Spartans would not go away and the Tar Heels could not close the deal. Now they head out on the road and play their first true road game of the season in one of the toughest environments around. Kentucky looks to remain undefeated on the season as it has started out 7-0 and would like nothing more than to show the Tar Heels that it is now the team to beat. Taking out a National Champion is always a goal but when your team is a possible contender for the same award, it makes it even sweeter. The Wildcats are solid all around as both the backcourt and frontcourt are experienced while freshmen John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins have both been unreal and are living up to the hype so far. This is obviously the biggest test so far so with Kentucky going through the motions a few times already, it should be more than ready to show what it is really made of. I was not sold on the Tar Heels before Michigan St. and I’m still not sold on them even after that performance. There are a couple hidden things that no one is probably aware of because they see the score and that is it. North Carolina shot just 60 percent from the free throw line (18-30) and it is hitting a mere 62.5 percent over its last five games. Also, the Tar Heels committed 17 turnovers and that is becoming a problem as they are now averaging exactly 17 per game on the season which is one of the worst in the nation. Kentucky has not done a great job either in taking care of the ball but the road aspect of North Carolina makes it much worse. And that is because the Tar Heels have yet to play in a true road environment. Last but not least, the Wild cats want some payback following the 19-point beatdown it took in Chapel Hill last season. As a matter of fact, the Tar Heels have throttled Kentucky in four of the last five meetings and have won all five games in the last five years. That is a lot of payback and even though the players and coaches are new, they are well aware of the situation and will handle it on Saturday. 10* Kentucky Wildcats
If anyone was able to see Arizona last week against Arizona St., they saw the emotion that the Wildcats came out with. There was talk all week about how the Wildcats would some in soft after tough losses against California and Oregon, the latter taking any shot away from a trip to the Rose Bowl. However, they came out just the opposite and if not for a momentum shift in the third quarter, the Wildcats would have likely run away with the game. It was a win nonetheless and they can carry that momentum into their final game of the season against USC which will once again have bowl implications. A bigger bowl means more money and for Arizona, it is one of the few teams that need to rely on this money. Any money made during bowl season gets taken away from what needs to be raised by the staff and boosters and it is a significant chunk. That is a reason why you do not see this team give up late in the season and last year was a perfect example as was last weekend. Arizona could finish as high as a second-place tie and as low as sixth place depending on the outcome of this week’s Pac-10 games. The dream of the Rose Bowl was gone and the Wildcats could have easily folded but instead they rose to the occasion and I expect more of the same this coming weekend. The Trojans got by again last weekend over rival UCLA and you could see the emotion that they put into that game as it got pretty dicey near the end of the game. After a 4-1 start, the Trojans are 4-2 in their last six games but it is a very unimpressive 4-2. Three of those wins came by a touchdown or less while the two losses were by 27 and 34 points so this is not even close to the USC that we are used to. The Trojans outgained UCLA by only 14 total yards which actually snapped a streak of four straight games where they were actually outgained themselves. On the season, USC is +49.7 ypg in yardage differential, the first year since 2001 that the differential has been this low when it was outgained on the season. In contrast, the Wildcats are +96.2 ypg in differential and that is with playing a schedule ranked 12th in the nation compared to USC’s 10th ranked slate. The gap has been closing between these two teams. USC has won seven straight games in this series and Arizona lost the first three games after head coach Mike Stoops took over by a combined 111-33. But in 2006 it was just a 17-point game and the last two years have been wins by the Trojans by only seven points. Clearly those were better USC teams than what is on the field this season so it looks as though we are getting value on Arizona based on the USC name alone. USC is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a straight up win and 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after covering the spread. The Wildcats are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog and they have covered four straight in this series, all as underdogs. 3* Arizona Wildcats
It is Championship Saturday and let Fargo be the one to guide you into bowl season with a slew of Winners! Topping the list on Saturday is the #1 CUSA Report this season as Matt has the Winner in the CUSA Championship between Houston and East Carolina! It is backed by TREMENDOUS 20-1 ATS (95.2%) Team Angles! Early High Noon Kickoff! Watch and win again with Matt on ESPN!
**9** BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP **ATS BLOWOUT** I went against Texas on Thanksgiving night against Texas A&M and that paid off into what turned out be a highly entertaining game. I believe it helps us here as well as that nationally televised game saw the Longhorns struggle and gamblers have the shortest memories of anyone out there as they will certainly remember that not so good Texas effort. That is giving Nebraska a little more line love than it deserves in my opinion. Texas won and won easily in the extremely tough Big XII South. Nebraska backed into the Big XII North title because no other team was good enough to win it. When a team like Kansas St. is in the running for the division late in the season, you know it is weak. We all know what’s at stake for Texas here. If the Longhorns win, they are likely in the BCS Championship game. If they lose, they are out. However, it they win ugly, you never know what may happen as they could get passed depending on how the rest of the weekend pans out. Nebraska has a fine defense but it was not tested that much this season. Let’s break down the competition. The Huskers allowed 11.1 ppg on the season which is third best in the country. No doubt that is very solid. During conference action, Nebraska faced only three teams that were ranked higher than 30th in total offense. One of those Texas Tech, put up 31 points on the Huskers. Another, Oklahoma which is 29th in the nation was without its starting quarterback but still managed 325 yards despite a ton of turnovers. Finally Kansas is 25th in total offense and Nebraska held it to 17 points but the Jayhawks were in a massive slump at that time. I am not taking away from the Huskers defense because it is good but it was not tested very often and it certainly will be tested Saturday night. The Longhorns offense is third in the country in scoring with 43.0 ppg and 11th in total offense at 451.6 ypg. Texas is one of the most balanced offenses in the country after running the ball 447 times and passing it 462 times this season. Quarterback Colt McCoy was playing himself right out of the Heisman race as through the first six games of the season finishing with that Oklahoma game, he has thrown 11 touchdowns and seven interceptions. In the six games since then, he has thrown 16 touchdowns and just three interceptions and the schedule was arguable tougher on the backend. He is playing his best football ever right now as this six-game stretch is the best since the start of last season when he had a 17-3 ratio through the first six gamers. Nebraska won the division but the finish was not good as it was outgained in four of its last five games and all of those games somehow resulted in wins. Winning the turnover battle was the big reason why and that is something that cannot be counted on all the time. Those five games came against teams that were ranked no better than 22nd in the nation in turnover margin, four of which were 41st or worse and three of which were 86th or worse. Texas does not fall into this category as it is tied for eighth in the nation in turnover margin. The Huskers offense is pretty bad to say the least. They are 92nd overall and 72nd in scoring and they put up over 20 points only twice in their last seven games. They are saying they learned from the Texas A&M game how to attack the Texas defense but the Aggies actually has a functional offense while Nebraska does not. Overall, the Longhorns are 5th in the nation in total defense and the Huskers do not have the passing game to take advantage of the 39th ranked passing defense, which is pretty good anyway as is the ranking of 14th in passing efficiency defense. Texas leads the nation in rushing defense and has been stingy throughout the season as it allowed only three opposing teams to rush for more than 100 yards in a single game. 9* Texas Longhorns
**9** SEC CHAMPIONSHIP WINNER *80% ANGLES* This is the most anticipated game of the season when we knew it was likely going to take place about a month ago. Both Florida and Alabama did their thing and both are making a case for taking part in the BCS Championship. Florida because it is the regaining National Champions and have yet to five up the top spot and Alabama because it has improved enough from last season that went a strong 12-2. These two met in the SEC Championship last season with Florida winning and covering as a 10-point favorite. Here is the interesting thing about the comparison from last season to this season. When this game was played last year, Alabama was the #1 team in the nation last season while Florida was #2 and the Gators were double-digit favorites. This season, the rankings are reversed and Florida is actually favored by fewer points. That tells us enough right there where the line is telling us to go. While Florida has come down I firmly believe Alabama has risen from last season. I have not been sold on Florida at all this season as being the best team in the nation. The Gators are there because they have not lost since winning it all last season and I agree that they deserve to stay until in fact they do lose. That does not mean they are still the best team however. For one week this season, Alabama took over the number one spot in the country but after a 12-10 win over Tennessee, it dropped back down to number two. Had that win been bigger, the Tide would possibly still be sitting at number one. When the season began, Florida was an almost unanimous choice as the top team in the AP Poll but that is far from the case now. One huge difference is the Gators offense as it has taken a big step back this season. Last year Florida's offense averaged 43.3 ppg against SEC opponents and this year it is averaging only 27.6 ppg against SEC opponents which is a difference of 15.7 ppg and that is an enormous drop for a team that brought back its quarterback along with six other offensive starters. Tim Tebow will long be considered one of the greatest college players of all time and rightfully so. The one major thing he struggles against is teams with a strong pass rush and it is safe to say Alabama possesses that. Alabama has 31 quarterback sacks in 12 games while Florida has given up 28 quarterback sacks this season. The defense was incredible last year and is even better this season. Alabama is third in total defense and second in scoring defense after finishing last season third and seventh respectively (third and third heading into the SEC Championship). So with the Tide being the same or even better on that side of the ball and Florida way down, I think we know which team has the big edge in that matchup. The biggest question heading into this season for Alabama was the offense. Last season, the Tide finished the year ranked 63rd and 35th overall and in scoring respectively (53rd and 28th before the SEC Championship) and were bringing back just four starters that did not include the starting quarterback and running back. I talked about Greg McElroy in my preseason writeup of the Tide and how good he was and that he should be able to flourish right away. He has exceeded expectations as he has thrown 16 touchdowns and only four interceptions while completing over 60 percent of his passes. Running back Mark Ingram came out of nowhere to become a Heisman candidate and even though he is dinged up, he will be just fine here. While the Alabama defense is the same or better, the Gators defense is much better as they are tops in the nation in both total defense and scoring defense. Alabama will not have it easy but there is one big factor than cannot be downplayed. The loss of defensive end Carlos Dunlap is huge for Florida. Dunlap was the defensive MVP of the BCS championship game last January, was tied for team lead in sacks at seven and is a sure-fire first round draft choice. What he did to his team and his teammates is inexcusable. Florida is favored by this much because it has to be and not because it is legit. 9* Alabama Crimson Tide
**10** CUSA GAME OF THE YEAR *95% ANGLES* I went against East Carolina last year in the C-USA Championship and that backfired right back in the face. Tulsa committed seven turnovers in that game and that is something that simply cannot be handicapped and the Golden Hurricane still only lost by three points. The venues changes this season as the Pirates get the home field and the line is certainly reflecting that. The line opened with Houston as a one-point favorite and the number has moved throughout the week to a more realistic for the Cougars to be laying. Even though the line has gone against us here, it is not a bad thing as the line movement is consistent with the money coming in and the normal flow is suitable. Reason being is that I have Houston handicapped as a touchdown favorite (11 points on a neutral field) so we are still getting a ton of value. Championship games and bowl games are usually good places to look at stronger defensive teams first but we go against that line of thought in this one. The Houston offense has been unstoppable all season long and while the same was said in this game last season about Tulsa, it actually did pan out bit those turnover were the difference as the Golden Hurricane won the yardage battle 399-278. The Cougars are lead the nation in total offense, passing offense and scoring offense and those are three categories not in the favor of the Pirates here. Houston has roughed up some bad teams along the way there is no question about that three games stick out that show it can do it against anyone. The Cougars put up 512, 579 and 553 total yards against Oklahoma St., Texas Tech and Mississippi St. respectively. Those are serious yardage totals against BCS teams and while those defenses are ranked 32nd, 48th and 63rd in the nation, East Carolina comes in with a defense ranked worse than all three of those teams and that is with playing in C-USA and not the Big XII or SEC. Last season, Houston won the meeting against the Pirates in Greenville 41-24 as it ranked up 619 yards of total offense. And that was against an East Carolina defense that was better than this year’s version as it finished the season ranked 41st in the nation. While the Houston offense is the best on the planet, the defense is horrendous. The Cougars are 110th in total defense and 83rd in scoring defense but it has had its share of solid moments. Not counting the game against FCS Northwestern St., Houston allowed 16 points or fewer in four of its other games which equates to exactly half of its conference games. It can be argued that the offenses in question were bad and while that is the case, the Pirates offense is nothing to write home about. East Carolina is 70th in total offense and 63rd in scoring offense and it has struggles in both rushing and passing. The last thing the Pirates want to do here is to get into a shootout with Houston but it might come to that and the Pirates do not have enough to keep up. The road team is 5-0 ATS the last five meetings and that is good for us here as it shortens the number considerably. Houston is 4-0 ATS in its last four games after a win by 20 or more points while East Carolina is 1-5 ATS in its last six games against teams with a winning record. Also, the Pirates are 0-6 ATS over the last two season when they allow 28 or more points and that will be the dagger right here. 10* Houston Cougars
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Matt Fargo is becoming recognized as one of the best and most consistent handicappers in the world. He has been handicapping professionally since his college days and his hard work and dedication have paid off considerably. In his 14 years of handicapping, Fargo has had winning seasons 11 times and has not had only one losing season in the past 10 campaigns. He brings with him numerous high ranking finishes in all sports with 23 Top Ten’s in the past five years alone including four #1’s.
Matt has appeared on numerous radio shows over the last few years giving out sought after information, free plays and spot-on analysis that the bettor needs. He is commonly referred to as “Mr. Analysis” as his game day reports are considered to be some of the finest and most thorough available anywhere. If you want reasoning for a play, Matt gives it to you.
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