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• NFL 10* TOP REPORTS a MASSIVE 10-1 YTD • • NBA 111-81-2 ATS (57.8%) last 194 TOP PLAYS • ***SUNDAY EXTENDS NFL 10-1 ATS RUN ON 10* REPORTS***
The public favorites were the story once again on Saturday and Matt had no answers. NC State was a huge letdown while the other home underdogs followed suit. At least we have Sunday to get it back.
Matt went a NEAR PERFECT 6-1 with his NFL Reports in Week Nine (as he put together another winning week and is already off to a flying start in Week 10! This included his Underdog Game of the Year Winner that extended his 10* NFL Reports to an ASTOUNDING 10-1 ATS (90.9%)! He has now shown a profit in 5 of the last 6 weeks and since an off Week One Fargo has brought home +89 Units of NFL Profit!REPORTS POSTED FOR WEEK 10 NFL
**10** NFL NON-DIVISIONAL ROUT *10-1 YTD* - Sunday
**3-GAME** NFL TRIPLE PLAY ***10-3 RUN*** - Sunday
**9** NFL SUNDAY PRIMETIME **87% ANGLES** - Sunday
***Published Streaks (through 11/13)***
• All Sports Overall Plays 16-11 L27 59%
• Main Leagues Top Plays 17-10 L27 63%
• Football Overall Plays 72-57 L129 56%
• Football Overall Plays 8-3 L11 73%
• Football Top Plays 65-47 L112 58%
• Football Top Plays 12-5 L17 71%
• NFL Overall Plays 9-1 L10 90%
• NFL Top Plays 17-9 L26 65%
• College Leagues Top Plays 34-25 L59 58%
• NCAA-B Top Plays 28-21 L49 57%
• NCAA-B Overall Plays 17-12 L29 59%
• NBA Overall Plays 20-11 L31 65%
Friday was not a good night in the NBA but Matt is still on a SOLID 19-14-1 (57.6%) ATS run in the NBA dating back to last year while his NBA BIG GAME Reports are now 111-81-2 ATS (57.8%) with his last 194 TOP PLAYS!Rating Scale
Play Rating will be displayed in each title since no one rates games the same.
**10**
This is the “BEST of the Best” …These ratings are not frequent as they are THE TOP PLAY of all TOP PLAYS released. There is nothing higher than this.
**9**
This is the “BEST of the Rest”…these plays are just a notch below the **10** Reports and narrowly missed out on “Best of the Best” status.
**8**
This is a high-tiered TOP PLAY release and these are not released very often. These are equivalent to Game of the Month selections.
**7**
This is a low-tiered TOP PLAY release and these are released less frequently than his **8** Reports. These are equivalent to Game of the Week selections.
**5**
This is a regular selection and should be played at your normal wagering level. The majority of releases as part of a big card will be based on this unit.
**3**
This is a Low Rated selection equivalent to a Free Play. All Free plays will have a rating as no ‘opinions’ are released.
Fargo’s **9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY ***85% ANGLE***
Matt is coming off a loss Thursday on Phoenix but is ready to bounce back heading into the weekend! Fargo has been money long-term going 113-84-2 ATS (57.4%) with his last 199 TOP PLAYS going back to last season and he has another Winner brewing for tonight! This TOP PLAY DOG is backed by a TERRIFIC 25-4 ATS (85.2%) Power Situation! The NBA run resumes with a WIN tonight!
Fargo’s **3-GAME** CFB ANNIHILATOR **2-TV GAMES**
It has been a tough year for the underdog in college football and Matt is proof as the dogs have not been barking much of late. This time of year, the favorites should be played in the right spots and Fargo has isolated 3 GREAT OPPORTUNITIES to cash! He expects nothing short of a SWEEP and we bring it home! Go 3-0 right here! Build your Sunday NFL Bankroll now!
Fargo’s **9** CFB REVENGE ***GAME OF THE MONTH***
It has been a trying couple weeks for Matt on the college gridiron as the public has been rolling with the favorites. He is not shelving all underdogs however as he has one for Saturday that is in a great spot to not only WIN but WIN BIG! Also part of the equation is a HUGE Payback Factor and it demands his Revenge Game of the Month! Vengeance is sweet as is this WINNER!
Fargo’s **10** BIG EAST GAME OF THE YEAR *BLOWOUT*
It has been a trying couple weeks for Matt on the college gridiron as the public has been rolling with the favorites. As we hit the final quarter of the season, this is the time where the favorites SCORE BIG WINNERS! That is the case here as Matt is releasing his BIG EAST GAME OF THE YEAR and it has B-L-O-W-O-U-T written all over it! We bag a big winner on the gridiron!
Fargo’s **10** NFL #1 DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR
Matt is coming off a small profit in Week 10 NFL but a profit is a profit! His BIG GAME WON again as Green Bay took it outright over Dallas! That extended his 10* NFL Reports to an ASTOUNDING 11-1 ATS (91.7%)! He has now shown a profit in 6 of the last 7 weeks and the latest 10* MONSTER is here for Sunday! You know what to do! Grab it now we hit another HUGE play!
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Ohio St. has dominated this series in recent years as it has won five straight meetings including a 42-7 victory last season. In my opinion this is the worst Ohio St. team since this streak began and there is no way it should be favored by this many points on the road in a major rivalry game. The Buckeyes clinched a trip to the Rose Bowl with their win over Iowa last week and that is pretty much by default as no team in this conference deserves a trip to any BCS Bowl game. This is one of the worst seasons the Big Ten has had in quite some time and the fact that Iowa was atop the conference just two weeks ago and ranked number four in the nation proves that. This game is much bigger for Michigan. It needs to win to become bowl eligible which would stop the bleeding of a four-game losing streak as well as a six-game conference losing skid. The seniors will be playing their final home game ever at the Big House knowing that they are 0-3 against the Buckeyes and getting swept at home would be the worst possible scenario. The Wolverines have been blown out twice on the road during this recent stretch, which also includes a two-point loss against Purdue at home. Three of the six losses this season have been by a combined 10 points this is definitely one of the better six-loss teams in the country. Senior offensive lineman Mark Ortmann and senior defensive end Brandon Graham were going to make sure the rest of the team understood how big this game was and what it means to the program as the pair held a players-only meeting to get the team on the same page and prepared for Saturday's contest. These types of meetings are sometimes overblown but in a case like this where there are now outside things going on off the field, it is a big step. Michigan has been woeful on defense in the second half during the losing streak, as evidenced in the latest loss to Wisconsin where the Wolverines were outscored 24-7 in the second half in a 45-24 defeat. In the 38-36 loss against Purdue, Michigan was outscored 28-12 after halftime and the week before that, it was outscored by Illinois 31-0 in the final two quarters after taking a 13-7 lead into halftime. Last and certainly not last, it was shutout by Penn St. 16-0 in the final 30 minutes making it a total deficit of 99-19 in the second half during this losing streak. To beat Ohio St., Michigan needs to force quarterback Terrelle Pryor into mistakes and that can easily happen. Pryor’s numbers are average at best as he is completing just over 55 percent of his passed while throwing 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions. A win here for Michigan avoids back-to-back losing seasons for the first time in 46 years so there is a half of a century’s worth of history to avoid. The Wolverines do fall into a very good situation based on the recent success of Ohio St. Play against road favorites in the second half of the season that are outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg going up against a team that is between +5 and -5 ppg in scoring differential after allowing seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 48-22 ATS (68.6 percent) since 1992. Even though it is a rivalry game, Michigan had nothing to play for last season and it showed as it limped in to finish 3-9 on the season. The Wolverines have a lot more at stake this season and they will keep this one closer than expected. 3* Michigan Wolverines
It has been a trying couple weeks for Matt on the college gridiron as the public has been rolling with the favorites. As we hit the final quarter of the season, this is the time where the favorites SCORE BIG WINNERS! That is the case here as Matt is releasing his BIG EAST GAME OF THE YEAR and it has B-L-O-W-O-U-T written all over it! We bag a big winner on the gridiron!
YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup
Selection
W/L
NBA | Nov 19, 2009 Phoenix Suns vs. New Orleans Hornets
**9** NBA STAR ATTRACTION (TNT) *67% YTD* I’m usually not one to lay chalk on the road but this is a bad spot for New Orleans. The Hornets are coming off a win in their last game but that came against the Clippers so you can chalk that one up to a very unimpressive victory. That was their first win without Chris Paul as they are 1-1 without him in the lineup, the loss coming against the Hawks on the road by 23 points. New Orleans is 3-2 at home this season but the only win against a solid team came against Dallas in overtime and that was just a tough spot for the Mavericks who were coming off a home win over Utah the previous night. New Hornets head coach Jeff Bower admits his players have a steep learning curve in trying to go from using pick-and-roll plays set up around the lane under former head coach Byron Scott to spreading the court with proper spacing and using quick ball movement. That is a problem against tonight’s opponent. Phoenix is 10-2 on the season and while both losses came on the road and by big margins, they came against the Lakers and Magic, the two teams that were in he NBA Finals last season. Amazingly, the Suns have lost 14 straight games on TNT which is very surprising considering the great play they have achieved. Phoenix is a high scoring team but it is not really considered a running team anymore. The Suns still can strike quickly but it won't often come by the classic man-advantage fast breaks, especially with Phoenix relying on wings to rebound. The Suns remain as potent as any team, ranking second in the league in scoring with 110.4 ppg, field-goal shooting at 48.9 percent and three-point shooting at 43.8 percent entering Wednesday. The Suns still have what they call “early offense” with 42 percent of their shots and 40 points a game coming in the shot clock's first 10 seconds. But fast-break points are middle of the pack in the league and that is hardly an issue. In the 20-point win over the Hornets in the first meeting this season, Phoenix had 11 fast-break points compared to 24 for New Orleans and we all saw the result. New Orleans is 4-16 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons and in projected high-scoring games, it has been a disaster as it is 2-15 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 200 over the last two seasons. The Suns are 16-5-2 ATS in their last 23 games against a team with a winning percentage of less than .400. 9* Phoenix Suns
NCAA-B | Nov 19, 2009 Eastern Kentucky vs. Pittsburgh
**8** CBB ATS BLOWOUT TOP PLAY **83% RUN** Pittsburgh is one of those teams that has early fade potential. The Panthers went to the Elite Eight last season before losing a thriller to Villanova and that is what a lot of people remember as they will blindly bet this team based on last season’s results. Pittsburgh is far from the same team as last year and while it could get strong later in the season, it is not going to be putting out its best basketball right now. The Panthers lost four starters including the departures of Sam Young, DeJuan Blair and Levance Fields who averaged a combined 45.6 ppg and that is a lot of production to replace. Making matters worse, the lone returning starter Jermaine Dixon, who averaged 8.4 ppg last season (leading returning scorer) and was to assume the leadership role this year, it out at least a month with a foot injury while Gilbert Brown, the third leading returning scorer with 5.4 ppg is suspended and will not be back until near Christmas. Despite getting off to a 2-0 start, Pittsburgh head coach Jamie Dixon is concerned the Panthers' defensive shortcomings have impacted their ability to control the boards. In the last game against Binghamton, Pittsburgh held the Bearcats to 29 percent shooting in the first half but allowed them to drop 50 percent of their shots from the floor in the final 20 minutes. Eastern Kentucky is a team form the Ohio Valley Conference that not many people know about or quite honestly, care about. The Colonels are expected to contend in the conference despite losing All-OVC guard Mike Rose who averaged 20.0 ppg and 5.3 rpg last season. Losing a player that brought that much production can be difficult to replace but the cupboard is far from bare in Richmond. The Colonels bring back 11 players including four starters so while Rose was the main cog last season, the team expects more balance this season and that can actually be better for a team than relying on just one player most of the time. They were one of the top three-point shooting teams in the country last season as the Colonels hit 40.6 percent from behind the arc which was the sixth best percentage in the country. Their first game came against West Virginia Wesleyan and while the victory was hardly a test, Eastern Kentucky shot 65.4 percent (17-26) from long range and that is impressive no matter the defense. The one thing that Eastern Kentucky lacks is height down low and while that would have been an issue last season, it won’t be here as Pittsburgh is not nearly as dominant down low as it has been. Head coach Jeff Neubauer is high on this team and rightfully so. “I think we're basing our hopes for this year's team on the fact we have 11 returning players from last year,” he said. “We're returning an experienced group of players. It's the most experienced group we've had returning in our five years at Eastern Kentucky.” The Colonels have the shooters to keep this one close. 8* Eastern Kentucky Colonels
**9** CBB DARK HORSE DANDY *AFTERNOON TIP* This is an early start game with tip off at 1:30 ET on a neural floor at the Charleston Classic. This line is a little bit of a head scratcher. Tulane is 0-1 and Miami is 2-0 but the competition has been on opposite ends as the Green Wave drew Georgetown in their opener while Miami was able to take out NC Central and Nova Southeastern (who?). Clearly that should have no reflection on this lien but it looks like it does. Tulane was getting 10.5 points from the Hoyas and it is now getting double digits from Miami and even though this one is on a neutral floor, that four-point difference between home and neutral is not enough. Miami is not in the same class as Georgetown this season as it has been picked by some to finish last in the ACC. The Hurricanes lost their best player in Jack McClinton and they return only two starters from last season. With so many new faces, it will be tough when it actually faces a ream team and one that is not at home. And yes Tulane is a real team. The Green Wave do not get many headlines but this team has finished in the top half of C-USA in three of the last four years but it was overshadowed by everything that Memphis did. Tulane lost by 16 points to the Hoyas in their opener but it did not play that bad of a game as it was simply overmatched inside by their height and that is something Miami does not have. Tulane couldn’t buy a basket notably the main guy on offense Kevin Sims who went 0-6 from the floor and scored just three points after averaging 13.0 ppg last season. He was one of only three players in the conference that led his team in minutes, points and assists. Something says that he comes to play on Thursday. Kris Richard is another solid backcourt player and is a great defender while the addition of swingman Aaron Holmes is huge. Holmes is a JUCO transfer who was a top 50 player out of high school at one time. Down low, David Booker played a great game against Georgetown and along with Asim McQueen, the frontcourt should be ok. Like Miami, Tulane plays solid defense and that makes points a premium here. Tulane also falls into a great contrarian situation. Play on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points after scoring 60 points or less going up against an opponent after scoring 95 points or more. This situation is 48-17 ATS (73.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* Tulane Green Wave
NFL | Nov 19, 2009 Miami Dolphins vs. Carolina Panthers
**9** NFL THURSDAY TOTALS DOMINATOR *67%!* We are seeing almost an instant replay of the game from last Thursday in terms of the total and the same reasoning will be used in what should be another low scoring game. The value Thursday is in the total as we have a number that is pretty high for two very average offenses. Both teams have been consistent on both sides of the ball with only a couple of aberrations on both offense and defense and with both Miami and Carolina in the same range on offense and defense, getting out of the norm is unlikely tonight. We catch a little added value as well based on the fact that both teams played in high scoring games last weekend. Miami and Tampa Bay combined for 48 points while Carolina and Atlanta combined for 47 points. Miami is averaging 319.6 ypg on offense which is 23rd in the NFL and that has come against defenses allowing an average of 332 ypg so that offensive output is even worse since it has faced some weak defenses. The Panthers are allowing 314.6 ypg which is good for 12th best in the NFL and that has come against offenses averaging 340 ypg so that defense has really stepped up and is playing better than that average indicates. On this side, it is a big advantage for the Panthers defense. It is even more so that the Dolphins will be a run first team as Chad Henne will not be able to exploit the great Carolina pass defense. The Panthers are allowing 186.4 ypg through the air against offenses averaging 225 ypg passing. On the other side, Carolina is averaging 331.2 ypg on offense which is 21st in the NFL but that comes against defenses that are allowing 347 ypg so the output is well below average just like that of the Dolphins. On defense, Miami is allowing 337 ypg which is 19th in the league and that may seem below average but the Dolphins have faced teams that are averaging 350 ypg so the defense has stepped up and is playing better than what the average shows and that again is similar to that of the Panthers. Looking at both teams and their statistical numbers show that both teams are less than average on offense and above average on defense and that is exactly what we are looking for here. The running game is going to be the center of attention on both sides and that will be the case even though Ronnie Brown is out for Miami and DeAngelo Williams is questionable for the Panthers. This is a must win game for both sides realistically. The Dolphins are two games behind Pittsburgh and San Diego, both 6-3 and currently the Wild Card participants, so it needs to keep winning to keep pace. In addition to that, they trail three teams that are 5-4 so Miami not only need to finish strong but also get some help along the way. Winning the division could be the only hope and it trails New England by two games and already has lost once to the Patriots. For Carolina, the picture is a little brighter. The Panthers trail New Orleans by five games in the NFC South so a division repeat is out. They trail Philadelphia, New York, Green Bay and Atlanta by just a game in the Wild Card race so there is still a shot at jumping back into the postseason. The loser of this game will have an uphill battle the rest of the way. All of this means neither team will be taking a lot of chances so they will be playing it tight on offense. Carolina quarterback Jake Delhomme said that the Panthers want to control time of possession more against the Dolphins, which might lead them to try to slow down the offense. That basically says running down the clock. 9* Under Miami Dolphins/Carolina Panthers
SERVICE BIO
Matt Fargo is becoming recognized as one of the best and most consistent handicappers in the world. He has been handicapping professionally since his college days and his hard work and dedication have paid off considerably. In his 14 years of handicapping, Fargo has had winning seasons 11 times and has not had only one losing season in the past 10 campaigns. He brings with him numerous high ranking finishes in all sports with 23 Top Ten’s in the past five years alone including four #1’s.
Matt has appeared on numerous radio shows over the last few years giving out sought after information, free plays and spot-on analysis that the bettor needs. He is commonly referred to as “Mr. Analysis” as his game day reports are considered to be some of the finest and most thorough available anywhere. If you want reasoning for a play, Matt gives it to you.
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