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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-11-18 | Montreal v. Ottawa -14 | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* CFL GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Ottawa Redblacks (8:00 EST). So far I’m 7-4 in the CFL this season. I’m banking on Ottawa bouncing back from last week’s inexplicable 42-41 loss to Toronto and pound Johnny Manziel and the floundering Alouette’s through the field tonight. This is the second of three in the season series between the clubs. In Week 4 Ottawa would pull away for the 28-18 win at Molson Stadium. That was then though and this is now. Montreal will be led by the much maligned Johnny Manziel under center for a second straight week. In his debut last week (Als fell 50-11 to the Ti-Cats) Manziel would go 11 of 20 for 104 yards and four INT’s. Manziel was pulled for Vernon Adams Jr., who was then lost to injury with a foot issue. The Als’ run game is non-existent and their defense is terrible. Also note that defensive end John Bowman is out for up to six weeks with a torn bicep as well. Ottawa now has a slim one-game lead in the East after letting a 24-point lead get away from it in last week’s shocking loss to the Argos. QB Trevor Harris was sharp though by going 27 of 35 for 381 yards and two TD’s. Diontae Spencer had eight catches for 145 yards and a TD, while also returning three punts for 104 yards and another major score. I’ll point though that Ottawa is still 12-7 ATS in its last 19 against the division and 13-7 ATS in its last 20 against clubs with losing records, while Montreal is just 12-24 ATS in its last 36 as an underdog and only 4-8 ATS in its last 12 off a loss against a division rival. Lay the points with confidence, play on the Redblacks. Good luck…Larry |
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07-28-18 | Ottawa +6 v. Hamilton | Top | 21-15 | Win | 100 | 32 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* CFL GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Ottawa Redblacks (4:00 EST). Am I suggesting that you should “sprinkle a little” on the money line in this one? I’m definitely not. But I do absolutely believe that Ottawa will come to play tonight and keep this one competitive until the final moments. Ottawa in fact leads Hamilton by a game in the East Division. Last year when these teams played the Redblacks won at Tim Hortons Field 37-18, as they’d go on to score 22 second-half points with QB Trevor Harris going for 394 yards and two TD’s. Ottawa comes in off a 29-25 win over BC, as William Powell scored the go-ahead TD with just moments to go. Harris would go 30 off 44 for 363 yards and a TD, while Brad Sinopoli made 11 grabs for 171 yards. The Ti-Cats come in with zero momentum after back to back loss to Saskatchewan. Hamilton traded backup QB Johnny Manziel to Montreal this past week, leaving Jeremia Masoli as the No. 1 guy. He’s failed to deliver in consecutive starts though and I think he’s going to struggle again here as well. Note that Ottawa is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while Hamilton is just 6-13 ATS in its last 19 as a favorite. Grab the points, play on the Redblacks. Good luck…Larry |
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07-19-18 | Saskatchewan v. Hamilton OVER 51.5 | Top | 31-20 | Loss | -107 | 81 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* CFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the over Riders/Ti-Cats (7:30 EST). A couple of 2-2 teams collide on Thursday night and in my opinion, everything points to a higher-scoring shootout. Saskatchewan is a sizeable underdog in this one, but note that it’s won five of its last seven road games. Zach Collaros has two TD passes and two INT’s this year. So far the ground game is averaging 110 yards per contest, with Jerome Messam leading the way with 110 yards on 32 carries. Receivers Shaquelle Evans and Naaman Roosevelt have combined for 310 receiving yards and two major scores. Hamilton QB Jeremiah Masoli has 1,378 yards, four TD’s and four INT’s so far this season. His favorite targets have been Jalen Saunders and Brandon Banks, who have combined fro 675 receiving yards and two TD’s. Luke Tasker has also excelled with 20 receptions. The Roughriders have QB issues and whoever gets the start of the visitors (possibly Brandon Bridges), I like Saskatchewan to keep this one competitive. With the home side looking to open up the playbook and to push the pace, the Riders will be forced to match that tempo. (additional O/U ATS supporting stats added shortly) Saskatchewan won’t be going down without a fight and it has history on its side, having won four straight in this series. As mentioned off the top, everything points to these clubs battling tooth and nail and for this total to soar over the posted number sooner, rather than later. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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07-12-18 | Calgary v. Ottawa +3.5 | Top | 27-3 | Loss | -106 | 35 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Ottawa Redblacks (7:30 EST). Ottawa pulled off a 39-33 upset over Calgary in the 2016 Grey Cup and while the outright win is obviously not out of the question here either, I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Note that this is an “in-season revenge game” for the Redblacks, as the Stampeders won 24-14 at home in Week 3, led by QB Bo Levi Mitchell with 251 yards and two scores. Trevor Harris had just 135 yards and a pick in that one for Calgary, but all signs point to a bounce back here in my opinion. Calgary is so far the only unbeaten team in the CFL, but off its bye, I’m expecting it to come out a little flat-footed here. Mitchell so far had 872 yards and six TD passes, while Eric Rogers is tied for third with three TD catches. Ottawa won 28-18 in Montreal last weekend, as Harris bounced back with 342 yards and three TD’s. You’ll also want to keep your eyes on Ottawa receiver Brad Sinopoli, who caught 11 passes for 148 yards and a TD. Both teams looked sharp defensively in their last games, so I’m going to call that area a “wash” tonight. I will point out though that Ottawa is an amazing 14-5 ATS in its last 19 as an underdog. The week off leads to “rust” for Calgary, while the Redblacks build off their latest victory. Grab the points, play on Ottawa. Good luck…Larry |
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07-07-18 | BC v. Winnipeg -6 | Top | 19-41 | Win | 100 | 37 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (8:30 EST). Winnipeg welcomes back QB Matt Nichols to the line-up in this one, which made the Bombers’ line jump from 4-points to around 6-points. I think Nichols will in fact be the difference maker in this one and I expect the home side to pull away for the comfortable ATS cover as the game comes down the stretch. Winnipeg is 5-3 SU the last eight in this series, including 3-1 on home field. And that doesn’t bode well for a BC team which is a horrible 2-10-1 ATS in it last 13 against teams from the West. In fact, the Lions are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine in this series. BC comes in off a 41-22 beatdown loss in Edmonton last week and I think it’ll still be caught up on that loss on the short week and on the road. Winnipeg is just 1-2 on the year, but Nichols will be a massive boost for everyone concerned. Nichols threw for 4,472 yards and 28 TD’s last year. BC QB Jonathan Jennings hasn’t thrown over 200 yards in his two games this season and I think he’s going to struggle again in this difficult venue. For all the reasons listed above, play on Winnipeg. Good luck…Larry |
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07-05-18 | Hamilton v. Saskatchewan OVER 50 | Top | 13-18 | Loss | -108 | 37 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the over Ti-Cats/Riders (9:00 EST). Hamilton will be looking to keep the pedal to the metal in Week 4 and extend its lead in the East. Hamilton wasn’t expected to do much out East, but the Ti-Cats enter this Week 4 matchup sitting at 2-1. Hamilton would spilt a two-game season opening road trip and then return home to beat Winnipeg 31-17 last week as a five-point favorite. Ti-Cats’ QB Jeremiah Masoli, perhaps motivated with Johnny Manziel waiting patiently in the wings for his turn to shine, has in fact dominated himself to open the year. Most recently he threw for 369 yards and a TD. Masoli has now thrown for 300 yards in eight straight games, tying Montreal’s Anthony Calvillo and Edmonton’s Mike Reilly for second most in league history. Hamilton’s ground game looked sharp as well, with Mercer Timmis rushing for two major scores, while Sean Thomas-Erlington had 92 yards on 11 carries. Saskatchewan lost the services of starting QB Zach Collaros and went to Brandon Bridges last week and the result was a 23-17 setback at home to the Alouettes as a ten point favorite. Bridge was pulled at half time after going just 8 of 18 for 111 yards and two INT’s. Bridge should settle down here in his second start of the season though and he will benefit from the friendly confines as well. I’ll point out as well that Hamilton has seen the total go over the posted number in three of its last four road games when the total in the contest is set between 49.5 and 52 points, while Saskatchewan has seen the total eclipse the number in seven of its last ten after two or more consecutive SU losses. In my estimation, the conditions are definitely correct for a high-scoring shootout. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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06-29-18 | Winnipeg v. Hamilton -3.5 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 36 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Hamilton Tigercats (7:00 EST). The Ti-Cats started off the season with consecutive games out West and they arrive back for their first home contest with a 1-1 record. The Blue Bombers are also 1-1 after two weeks in the books. This is a revenge game of sorts for Hamilton, as Winnipeg has won three of the last four in the series. The Blue Bombers come in off a 56-10 drubbing of the Alouettes in Montreal last week. QB Chris Streveler has thrown six TD’s in two games. He’d also rush one in against the Al’s. Winnipeg looked good on both sides of the ball, but I still think it’ll have its hands full with this dangerous and hungry home side. Hamilton fell 28-14 in Calgary, but then it would travel North to Edmonton and leave with a convincing 38-21 victory. QB Jeremiah Masoli was 18 of 29 for 332 yards and three TD’s. Luke Tasker had 103 yards receiving, while Brandon Banks had 117. RB Mercer Timmis had 133 yards on 17 carries with two TD’s. Winnipeg has been an ATS covering machine the last couple of seasons, but the new look Ti-Cats catch them off guard here in my opinion. And with a home and home set against BC starting next week, it’s not too difficult to imagine the Blue Bombers in some small way looking past their lowly opponent to that more meaningful stretch. I’m banking on that happening. Play on Hamilton. Good luck…Larry |
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06-28-18 | Ottawa v. Calgary -7.5 | Top | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 36 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Calgary Stampeders (9:00 EST). I think this will be a competitive battle throughout, but I look for the Stamps to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable victory and cover. Last year these teams played each other in Weeks 1 and 2. Both games were tight, as they tied 31-31 in Ottawa, before the Stamps won 43-39 in Week 2 to stay unbeaten in four home meetings in the series. The Redblacks rolled to a 40-17 win in their season opener over Saskatchewan, as QB Trevor Harris threw for 345 yards and a pair of major scores. William Powell was a bright spot on the ground with 94 yards and a TD as well. Calgary got its revenge in Toronto after losing to the Argos in the Grey Cup last year, pulling away for a 41-7 blowout victory last week. QB Bo Levi Mitchell completed a franchise-best 90.9 percent of his passes for 324 yards and three TD’s. Eric Rogers was unstoppable as well with five catches for 131 yards and two scores. The combination of Terry Williams and Don Jackson also produced 193 yards on the ground. It’s interesting to note though that Ottawa is a poor 1-2 ATS in its last three as a road dog in the 7.5 to ten points range, while Calgary is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 as a home fav in the 7.5 to ten points range (also 17-8 ATS in its last 25 after two more SU victories.) As mentioned off the top, I’m expecting a spirited battle from the visitors, but I think the Stamps come in razor focused and find a way to cover once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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06-22-18 | Hamilton +7 v. Edmonton | Top | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 37 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* CFL GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Hamilton Tigercats (10:00 EST). The Ti-Cats were competitive in their 28-14 loss in Calgary last week and we think they’ll keep this one tight as well. QB Jeremiah Masoli had 344 yards passing and a rushing TD and that performance was good enough to keep backup QB Johnny Manziel sidelined for another week. Hamilton went out signed former New Orleans Saints CB Delvin Breaux this week, and they’ll be hoping to a return to form after recent injuries. Edmonton had its hands full in last week’s come from behind 33-30 win at Winnipeg. Mike Reilly had a big game with 408 yards, a TD, while also rushing for two scores. Receiver Derel Walker had eight catches for 176 yards, including a 101 yard TD reception. Note though that three starters were lost in the victory, including left tackle Tommie Draheim, linebacker Adam Konar and defensive tackle Mike Moore. I’ll point out as well that Hamilton is 8-2 ATS in its last ten as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Edmonton is just 4-13 ATS in its last 17 as a favorite in the same points range. With a game at home to BC next week, it’s not too hard to imagine the home side getting caught “looking past” its lowly non-conference opponent. While I’m not calling for the outright upset, I do think that Hamilton will keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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06-21-18 | Saskatchewan v. Ottawa OVER 50 | Top | 17-40 | Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the over Riders/Redblacks (7:30 EST). Two teams gunning for a victory on Thursday night in Week 2 of the Canadian Football League and in my opinion, everything points to a higher-scoring shootout. Ottawa would finish 8-9-1 last year, which was still good enough for second spot in the East Division. Ottawa though was just 3-5-1 at home in the regular season, an area in which it hopes to approve dramatically in in 2018, starting against the high-flying Roughriders. The Redblacks would ultimately fall to Saskatchewan 31-20 in the Eastern Semi-Final. Ottawa QB Trevor Harris though finished with 457 yards and two TD’s that day. Ottawa also lost to the Roughriders 18-17 in Week 15 of the regular season, but it got some small amount of revenge with a 33-32 victory on the road two weeks later. Harris finished tied for No. 1 with 30 TD strikes in 2017. The Roughriders looked sharp in their 27-19 win over Toronto at home as three point underdogs in Week 1. While the defense did look good at home, I think it’ll have its hands full here against an Ottawa team looking to make some noise on Opening night. Saskatchewan will once again be leaning heavily on QB Zach Collaros, who was 18 of 25 for 203 yards, a TD and no INT’s. RB Jerome Messam was a standout as well with 72 yards on 21 carries, while also catching two passes. I expect each team to open up the play book and for this total to eclipse the posted number as the game come down the stretch. Good luck…Larry |
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06-16-18 | Hamilton v. Calgary -7.5 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 41 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Calgary Stampeders (7:00 EST). Calgary is looking to take out its frustrations on someone in its opening game after being upset in the Grey Cup in each of the last two seasons. While Hamilton should improve after a disastrous 2017, I think it’s completely outclassed on both sides of the ball and up and down the lines. Somehow Toronto pulled off the 27-24 upset last year. Calgary is once again one of the favs to win it all this season, sitting around +140 to win the West, including +200 to win the Grey Cup. The Ti-Cats signed ex Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel over the offseason, but he’s not starting this game and may not even see any action whatsoever. Jeremiah Masoli is the man under center for the visitors and he had a decent showing last year with 3,177 yards, 15 TD’s and 446 rushing yards in 12 total appearances last year. Hamilton also features a trio of decent receivers in Jalen Saunders, Luke Tasker and Brandon banks. The Stamps have a significant advantage at QB with Bo Levi Mitchell. Mitchell hasn’t missed a game since 2014 and over that time he holds most of the leagues passing records. Note that when these teams played in Calgary last year, the Stampeders annihilated Hamilton by a score of 60-1. Calgary’s strength though actually lies on the defensive side of the ball, as the unit finished first in virtually every defensive statistical category there is last season. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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06-14-18 | Edmonton -7 v. Winnipeg | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Edmonton Eskimos (8:30 EST). Edmonton would eliminate Winnipeg 39-32 in the Western semi-final last year and while “revenge” may be an angle some handicappers will play up here, I think the loss of the Blue Bombers’ staring QB will prove to be too much for the home side to handle on Opening night. Winnipeg actually won both regular season games against Edmonton last year, before the Eskimos finally exacted their revenge in the playoffs. The Esks did win seven games in a row to start the 2017 season though, ultimately finishing 12-6 during the regular season. The Esks have arguably the best QB in the CFL in Mike Reilly, who is just the sixth pivot in league history to post back-to-back 5,000 passing yard campaigns. Reilly is the beneficiary of likely the best offensive line in the league as well, giving up a CFL low 29 sacks on the season last year. Blue Bombers’ QB Matt Nichols went down with injury in practice and he’ll now be out of the line-up for at least 4 to 6 weeks. That means that rookie Chris Streveler is being thrust into the spot light on Opening Night of the CFL to make his first career start. Winnipeg has plenty of talent, but clearly there’s a big question mark to open the new campaign at the most important position. I believe Reilly and the Eskimos will take full advantage of this fact and put the foot on the pedal from start to finish. Lay the points, play on Edmonton. Good luck…Larry |
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07-24-17 | Ottawa v. Toronto OVER 55 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the over Redblacks/Argos (7:30 EST). The 1-3-1 Ottawa Redblacks get ready to battle the 2-2 Toronto Argonauts on Monday night. Ottawa got off the schneid with its first victory of the year last week, but it’s still just 2-4 in its last six on the road. Redblacks QB Trevor Harris has 1,755 yards, ten TD’s and two INT’s this year. You’ll also want to keep your eyes on the tandem of Brad Sinopoli and Greg Ellingson, who have 999 receiving yards and four TD’s this year. Ottawa has been atrocious defensively though in conceding an average of 30.8 points and 413.2 YPG. Toronto has lost six of its last eight at home. QB Ricky Ray has 1,529 yards, four TD’s and three INT’s so far. DeVier Posey and SJ Green have combined for 732 receiving yards and three TD’s. The Argos have been sharp defensively in allowing only 25.2 points and 354.4 YPG, but it’s interesting to note that they’ve seen the total go over the number in six of their last nine in Week’s 5 through 9. And note, Ottawa has seen the total go over the number in two of three as an underdog already this year. I’m expecting each side to push the pace from start to finish and I look for this total to eclipse the posted number as it comes down the stretch. Good luck…Larry |
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07-01-17 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan +1 | Top | 43-40 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Saskatchewan Roughriders. Winnipeg didn’t play last week. Last year the Blue Bombers finished 11-7 and lost in the West semifinals. Matt Nichols saw limited time at QB for Winnipeg last season, but he’s been named the starting man this year (still finsihed with 18 TD’s). Nichols has many weapons to utilize, including WR Weston Dressler and Clarence Denmark, who combined for 1,700 receiving yards and ten TD’s last year. Defensively Winnipeg is led by Kevin Fogg, who had 80 tackles, while Maurice Leggett has seven INT’s. While the Bluebombers had Week 1 off, the Roughriders will be eager to return home after falling to Montreal last weekend. QB Kevin Glenn looked good though as the veteran finished with 298 yards, one TD and one INT. WR’s Nic Demski and Bakari Grant combined for 155 receiving yards. RB Cameron Marshall had 84 yards on 11 carries. Saskatchewan looked great defensively despite the loss, giving up 17 points on 332 yards. I’ll point out as well that the Blue Bombers are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games as a road favorite, while the Roughriders are 7-2 ATS in their last nine as an underdog. I like the desperate home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Saskatchewan. Good luck…Larry |
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06-25-17 | Hamilton -3.5 v. Toronto | Top | 15-32 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Hamilton Tigercats (4:00 EST). So far the underdog is 3-0 in CFL action in 2017, but I think that streak finally comes to an end on Sunday. Neither team can be happy with their 2016 resutls. Hamilton finished 7-11 last year, while the Argos were 5-13. Both teams have gone through significant turnover on both sides of the ball in the offseason, but for me this pick comes down to the starting QB’s. To put it bluntly, I simply feel that Zach Collaros will be able to easily outduel 37 year old Ricky Ray. Collaros threw for 2,900 yards and 18 TD’s last year. WR Luke Tasker had 76 passes for 852 yards, while Terrance Toliver finished with 65 catches for 1,036 yards and nine TD’s. You’ll also want to keep your eyes on RB CJ Gable, who finally comes into a season at 100% health. Ray threw for only 2,400 yards last year. Toronto has ex-NFL veteran receivers DeVier Posey and Armanti Edwards in the line-up, but the two lack CFL experience. While they may go on to have a big season, I think it’s going to take some time for them to develop chemistry. Hamilton is 10-8 ATS in its last 18 on the road, while Toronto is just 3-13 ATS in its last 16 at home. I think the Argos get distracted on Opening night in their new building and I look for the hungry Tiger Cats to take advantage. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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06-24-17 | Edmonton v. BC -3.5 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the BC Lions (10:00 EST). I’ve played the favorite in the CFL over the first two nights to open the 2017 season and have come up short each time unfortunately. However, I think the fav is going to roll tonight, as I expect the explosive Lions to easily pull away down the stretch for the comfortable cover. Edmonton finished 10-8 last year. QB Mike Reilly threw for over 5,500 yards and 28 TD’s. WR Adarius Bowman caught 120 passes for 1,761 yards and nine TD’s. They’re complimented by RB John White, considered one of the top dual threats in the league. BC was 12-6 and QB Jon Jennings was a big reason why. Jennings threw for 5,200 yards last year and has a big new weapon in WR Chris Williams, who came over from the Grey Cup winning Ottawa Redblacks in the offseason. You’ll also want to keep your eyes on RB Jeremiah Johnson (formerly of the Denver Broncos). These teams are pretty even on both sides of the ball, but Edmonton is notorious in getting out to slow starts, as evidenced by its 4-11 ATS record over its last 15 games in Week 1. I like Jennings to put on a show for the home town crowd tonight. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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06-23-17 | Calgary -5 v. Ottawa | Top | 31-31 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Calgary Stampeders (7:30 EST). These teams met in the Grey Cup last year and Ottawa pullled off the massive upset. The Redblacks were just 8-9-1 in the regular season, while the Stampeders were 15-2-1. The Stamps are favored to win the Grey Cup this year as well and for good reason. The core of the offense and defense returns, including QB Bo Levi Mitchell, who threw for over 5,300 yards and 32 major scores. Calgary also returns the bulk of its defense, including No. 1 sack man Charleston Hughes. Trevor Harris threw for 3,300 yards and 16 TD’s last year and has been named the No. 1 starter this season for Ottawa. Last year Harris split time with Henry Burris under center. The core of the Redblacks offense remains in place, but the team did have some turnover in the secondary. I don’t think ATS stats are really relevant for this opening game, but I think the very clear “revenge” factor can’t be overlooked. The Stamps will be in a foul mood and Mitchell will be looking to put on a show tonight. It’s a PERFECT STORM of situational factors. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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06-22-17 | Saskatchewan v. Montreal -6.5 | Top | 16-17 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Montreal Alouettes (7:30 EST). Darian Durant was the QB for the Roughriders last year and he threw for 3,800 yards. Durant is one of the elite QB’s in the league and I think he’s going to be able to pick apart his former team tonight. The Alouettes have plenty of weapons surrounding Durant, including Sam Giguere, Brandon Rutley and Nik Lewis. Montreal’s defense remains pretty much the same from last year and this consistency from season to season will benefit the team early. Saskatchewan has pleny of offensive talent as well, with the likes of bruising RB Greg Morris and 1,000-yard receiver Naaman Roosevelt. However the Roughriders begin the year not knowing who their No. 1 QB will be. The team has three capable choices in Kevin Glenn, Brandon Bridge and Marquise Williams, but the uncertainty is a big detractor to open the season in my opinion. And for me it’s as simple as that. The uncertainty over Saskatchewan’s No. 1 starter will prove to be the difference here, as I look for the veteran Durant to step up and deliver in front of the home town crowd. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-20-16 | BC +7.5 v. Calgary | Top | 15-42 | Loss | -125 | 30 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* CFL GAME OF THE MONTH is on the BC Lions (4:30 EST). While I’ll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I do think that the surging BC Lions can keep this one close enough to at the very least, comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I feel to be a sizeable spread afforded to them. The Lions had an epic 1-point come from behind victory over the Blue Bombers last week and will look to carry that momentum over against a Stampeders team which went 15-2-1 in the regular season. Calgary got the job done all year with a balanced attack and was led by QB Bo Levi Mitchell, who had 32 TD passes and 5,385 yards. The run game led the league as well, while the defense was also No. 1. But is “rest” going to lead to “rust?” The Stamps locked up first place all the way back on October 10th and in addition to their first round playoff bye, they also had the final week of the regular season off. It’s the perfect situational factor to take advantage of, as I’m expecting the incredible chemistry that Calgary displayed all seaosn long, to take a small hit in this one. Further good news for Lions’ backers today is that both Manny Arceneaux and Shawn Gore (both in concussion protocol) are expected to suit up for this one. Having both of these dynamic receivers in the line-up greatly improves BC’s chances for an outright upset. The Stamps have no weakness, but as mentioned above, the team hasn’t played a meaningful football game in over six weeks. Calgary was a perfect 9-0 at McMahon Stadium, but BC was no slouch on the road, finishing 6-3. I’ll poing out that BC is 4-1 ATS this year off a win against a division rival and 7-2 ATS in its last nine as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while Calgary is just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 as home fav of 3.5 to seven points. Grab as many points as you can, play on the Lions. Good luck…Larry |
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07-22-16 | Ottawa v. Saskatchewan +6 | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 83 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* CFL GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Saskatchewan Roughriders. Sometimes I feel it’s necessary to completely dissect a game, looking closely at individual player matchups, relevant ATS statistics, weather information, scheduling and other external factors which could play a role in the outcome of a contest. Other times I feel a more “common sense” approach is the best way to handicap a contest, and that’s the case with this one. I simply feel that this sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for the league leading 3-0-1 Redblacks (3-1 ATS), while the 0-3 Roughriders (1-2 ATS) will clearly be risking life and limb as they look to avoid the dreaded 0-4 start to the season, a record which would likely have the team already looking ahead to next year. Basically I find it almost impossible for Ottawa to not get caught “looking ahead” to its game vs. Toronto at home next weekend. This will be the Redblacks fourth road game out of the first five weeks, while next week’s contest vs. the Boatmen will be the first of four straight in front of the home town crowd. Conversely, it has essentially become a “do-or-die” scenario for the Roughriders, who will play two tough games on the road in Montreal and Calgary after this one. I’ll also point out that Ottawa is just 1-2 ATS in its last three when playing with eight days rest, while Saskatchewan is 2-1 in its last three as home dog in the 3.5 to seven points range. If you’ve followed me for any length of time, you know that I base a lot of my selections on the players on the field, but sometimes (like for this play), I’ll look for a great “situation” to exploit. While I would not in fact be shocked by an outright SU upset, I will in the end reocmmend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Saskatchewan. Good luck…Larry |
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07-16-16 | BC v. Saskatchewan OVER 50 | Top | 40-27 | Win | 100 | 108 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the over Lions/Roughriders (7:00 EST). BC is 2-1, the Lions would open with a 20-18 win over Calgary at home in Week 1 and then followed that up with a 28-3 victory at Hamilton a week later. They fell to Toronto 25-14 in their last game. So far all three contests have fallen below the number. Saskatchewan has played twice, losing to Toronto at home 30-17 and then dropping a tight one to Edmonton 39-36 on the road in overtime. The over/under is 1-1 so far for the Riders. BC is in for a big test today facing Roughriders’ QB Darian Durant, who has already tossed for more than 600 yards and five TD’s, four of them coming in the victory over the normally stingy Eskimos. Lions pivot Jonathon Jennings will be forced to match pace, I think it’s important to note that BC has seen the total go over the number in two of its last three when playing with eight days rest. Also note that Saskatchewan has seen the total go over the number in 12 of its last 19 after two or more consecutive SU losses. With BC out to establish its anemic offense and with the Riders looking notch their first victory of the season, everything does indeed point to the over as the correct call here. Good luck…Larry |
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07-08-16 | Saskatchewan v. Edmonton OVER 49 | 36-39 | Win | 100 | 103 h 37 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is the over Riders/Eskimos. When the smoke clears at the end of this one, I’m expecting the total to have eclipsed the posted number. Last week the Roughriders fell 30-17 at home to the surprising Argonauts. Saskatchewan drew a “bye” in its first week but was unable to take advantage of the situation. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting the Roughriders to respond with a much better effort in their second opportunity of the season. Edmonton on the other hand would fall 45-37 in its opener at Ottawa, eventually succumbing in OT. The Eskimos offense was firing on all cylinders, but the team looked out of sorts defensively. With both team’s sitting at 0-1, I’m expecting each to open up the playbook tonight. I’ll point out that Saskatchewan has in fact seen the total go over the number in 12 of its last 20 when playing the role of underdog, while Edmonton has seen the total sail over the number in three of its last four following a bye-week. The last time these teams met, Edmonton would hold on for the 35-24 victory. I believe we’re going to see another high-scoring battle in this one as well. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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07-07-16 | Toronto v. BC OVER 49 | Top | 25-14 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is the over Argos/Lions (10:00 EST). Toronto is 1-1 to open the season, getting blown out at home in Week 1, only to then rebound with a big performance in Week 2. I think the Boatmen keep the momentum rolling in BC tonight. Argos’ QB Ricky Ray has completed 67.2 percent of his passes for 468 years, four TD’s and just one INT. Kenny Shaw and Vidal Hazelton have combined for 270 receiving yards and three touchdowns while Tori Gurley has six receptions. So far Toronto hasn’t looked very spectacular defensively though, allowing 29.5 points and 384 yards per game. BC hast jumped out to an impressive 2-0 start to the season, thanks in large part to timely defensively play and some spectacular special teams moments. The offense will now look to shoulder the load vs. Toronto’s vanilla defensive unit this evening, note that Lions’ QB Jonathon Jennings is completing 58 percent of his passes for 476 yards, one TD and zero INT’s. Shawn Gore and Bryan Burnham have combined for 292 receiving yards while Emmanuel Arceneaux has 10 receptions. I’ll point out that Toronto has seen the total go over the number in four of its last six as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while BC has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four as a home fav in the same points range. I think Toronto will throw something at the Lions offensively that they haven’t seen yet this season and with each team opening up the playbook, the move in this one is on the over. Good luck…Larry |
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07-01-16 | BC +6 v. Hamilton | Top | 28-3 | Win | 100 | 34 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH is on the BC Lions. Both teams come into this Week 2 contest sitting at 1-0. BC enters off a 20-18 home win over the Calgary Stampeders in which it got a 72-yard punt return TD from Chris Rainey to pull out the victory outright. BC QB Jonathon Jennings is now 4-3 in seven career starts and is widely regarded as one of the up-and-coming pivot-men in the CFL. Hamilton comes in off a big win over Toronto in Week 1 as backup QB Jeremiah Masoli would fill in admirably for the injured Zach Collaros. Hamilton rebuilt its secondary in the offseason and it looked pretty good vs. a rusty Ricky Ray last week, but the book is still out on the unit in my opinion. This week I’m basing a lot of this selection on some very strong ATS trends for the visitors and some very poor ones for the home side: BC is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range and 10-8 ATS in its last 18 non-conference games, while Hamilton is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 off a win vs. a division rival. The Lions got tremendous special teams play and defensive work last week and were able to take advantage of a Stampeders team which frankly looked past them. I believe the same will happen this time around as well and while I wouldn’t be shocked by another outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on BC. Good luck…Larry |
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06-30-16 | Toronto v. Saskatchewan UNDER 52 | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 36 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* CFL Total Of The Week is the under Toronto/Saskatchewan (10:00 EST). Toronto is coming off a 42-20 loss to Hamilton at home and now has to transition across the country to the hot bed of Canadian Football against a team which drew an opening week bye. Suffice it to say, I think the conditions are definitely right for a lower-scoring defensive battle this evening. Toronto was forced to make a decision about keeping either veteran QB Ricky Ray or youngster Trevor Harris this off-season and if Week 1 is any indicator, the Argos could wind up regretting their choice. Ray was coming off three-injury riddled seasons and looked slow in last week’s beatdown loss. Harris, the new backup in Ottawa, would go on to have a big night vs. the Eskimos after Henry Burris went down with injury. On the other side of the field, the Riders are basically a new team with head coach and GM Chris Jones taking control. Jones is considered one of the league’s top tacticians and with an extra week off to scout and scheme for the Boatmen, Toronto’s offense is going to have issues with this re-worked Riders defensive unit. Note that Toronto has seen the total go under the number in four of its last six as a road dog of three points or less, while Saskatchewan has seen the total dip below the number in its last three home games where the total is greater than or equal to 52. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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06-25-16 | Calgary v. BC +3.5 | Top | 18-20 | Win | 100 | 34 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* CFL SIDE OF THE MONTH is the BC Lions (10:00 EST). If we look at last year’s stats, it would be easy to just give the Stampeders the victory today. But it’s the start of a new season and the Lions will be out to avenge all three losses from a year ago and start off the new campaign with a big effort. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can I look for the home side to at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Calgary was 14-4 last year and lost in the West Final. BC was 7-11 and lost in the West semifinal. The Stamps are led by QB Bo Levi Mitchell, who completed 65.6 percent of his passes for 4,551 yards, 26 TD’s and 13 INT’s. Jerome Messam remains at running back after racking up more than 1,000 yards and two touchdowns. The Lions go with second year man Johnathon Jennings, who completed 66 percent of his passes for 2,004 yards, 15 TD’s and ten INT’s in his time as rookie last season. Anthony Allen remains at running back after leading the way with 574 yards and three touchdowns. Defensively these teams were very evenly matched, as Calgary finished with 49 sacks and 18 INT’s, while British Columbia had 48 sacks and 23 INT’s. Both teams made changes in the offseason, but I think BC’s defense will ultimately keep it in this game. Play on the Lions. Good luck…Larry |
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