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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-03-22 | Louisville -4 v. Syracuse | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -115 | 78 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* ACC Game of the Month is on Louisville at 8:00 ET. Louisville (6-7 in 2021) will square off at Syracuse (5-7) Saturday night in the season opener for both teams. Both teams are hoping to break through in the ACC Atlantic Division in 2022. Louisville hasn't done much lately, although the Cardinals did go 9-4 in 2016 and 8-5 in 2017 behind QB Lamar Jackson (Jackson won the Heisman in 2016). That said, Louisville begins this season just 20-29 (.408) the last four seasons. Syracuse is only 29-43 in six seasons under Dino Babers, with just 11 wins in the past three years. Syracuse won just five games last season, but it was a rebound campaign from the forgettable 2020 season (1-10). The Orange's Sean Tucker, was the top rusher in the ACC last season, setting a school-record with 1,496 rushing yards. However, Syracuse had the ACC's worst passing offense last season. QB Garrett Shrader struggled at times after taking the starting job late in the season. He's back, but the team is thin at QB after former starter Tommy DeVito left and won the starting job at Illinois. The Syracuse defense continues to struggle, having allowed 30 or more points in FIVE of the last seven seasons. Returning to Louisville, the Cardinals are led by dynamic QB Malik Cunningham, the ACC's top rushing QB. Cunningham returns after becoming the second QB in school history to rush for over 1,000 yards. He rushed for 1,031 yards (6.0 YPC / 20 TDs), while passing for 2,941 yards (19 TDs and 6 INTs. The bottom line is that Louisville has dominated Syracuse by going 7-1 SU and ATS in the last eight meetings between these two teams, with an average margin of 31.0 PPG. What changes here? NOTHING! Good luck...Larry |
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09-03-22 | Army v. Coastal Carolina -1.5 | Top | 28-38 | Win | 100 | 31 h 17 m | Show |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on Coastal Carolina at 7:00 ET. The Army Black Knights and the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers meet Saturday in college football action from Brooks Stadium in Conway, SC. Jeff Monken was named Arm's head coach in 2014. His Army tenure started slow, with a 4-8 2014 season and 2-10 in 2015. However, he's led Army yo 52-27 record the last six years, taking the Black Knights to FIVE bowl seasons (4-1). In 2018, he became the first head coach to lead Army to three consecutive bowl appearances, consecutive 10-win seasons, and its first ever 11-win season. That resulted in a final AP Poll ranking of No. 19[ for Monken's 2018 Black Knights, the highest the Black Knights had finished in the final polls since legendary Army coach Earl 'Red' Blaik's 1958 squad. Jamey Chadwell's CCU team has been one of CFB's best storylines the last two years with Chanticleers going 11-1 in 2020 and 11-2 in 2021. Army's "not so secret" strength is its option attack. The players/parts change but the results remain steady. The last six seasons, Army has averaged between 273 YPG on the ground, finishing second in the nation in 2021 by averaging 280.6 YPG with 48 TDs. However, Coastal Carolina has gotten extra time to prep for the option and the Chanticleers have experience facing it against Georgia Southern. CCU dominated Ga Southern at home last season, holding the Eagles to EIGHT points in a 28-8 victory. The Chanticleers lost leading rusher Jones (1,040 yards / 13 TDs) but feel that Bennett (636 yards / 8.6 YPC / 7 TDs) and White (515 yards / 7.2 YPC / 7 TDs) will capably fill the void. The great news is that QB Grayson McCall returns, off passing for 2,873 yards with 27 TDs and just THREE interceptions. Army is a dangerous underdog, but the Black knights aren't getting enough points here. CCU has outscored opponents 37.2 to 20.3 in 2020 and 40.9 to 21.6 the last two seasons and own a 13-1 home record the last two seasons (lone loss by TWO points to Georgia Southern). I'm laying the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-03-22 | Arizona v. San Diego State -6 | Top | 38-20 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 33 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on SD State at 3:30 ET. The Arizona Wildcats open their 2022 season with a visit to San Diego to face the Aztecs, who open their brand new on-campus stadium. Arizona's last winning season was back in 2017 (7-6). The Wildcats fell to 5-7 in 2018 and 4-8 in 2019. Then, Arizona went 0-5 in the COVID season of 202 and then 1-11 in 2021. In stark contrast, SD State has been to 10 bowls over the last 11 seasons, including going 12-2 last year, after a 38-24 Frisco Bowl win over UTSA. Arizona gets a boost at QB, as Jayden de Laura, the Pac-12 Offensive Freshman Player of the Year while at Washington State last season, takes over at QB. He completed 227 of 359 passes for 2,798 yards, with 23 TDs and nine INTs in 2021. However, the Wildcats' have allowed 39.8 PPG in 2020 and 31.4 PPG in 2021. The fact that eight defensive starters return is not necessarily a "good thing" Speaking of defense, SD State has allowed 12.7 PPG, 17.8 PPG and 19.8 PPG (last season). The fact that EIGHT starters return on that side of the ball is a "GOOD thing." SD State lost their 1,000-yd rusher Greg Bell (1,019 yards) and its top-two QBs. However, the Aztecs add former Va Tech QB Burmeister (1,960 yards with 14 TDs and 4 INTs in 2021) plus still have a deep stable of productive RBs. I refuse to overthink this. SD State has to be thrilled to begin the season from brand new Snapdragon Stadium, after playing its home games the last two seasons in Carson, Ca (two hours away). "B-L-O-W-O-U-T" Alert issued. Good luck...Larry |
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09-03-22 | North Carolina v. Appalachian State +1 | Top | 63-61 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 37 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Appalachian St at 12:00 ET. North Carolina (1-0) comes in off 56-24 home drubbing of FAMU, while Appalachian St will be playing its season opener. Mack Brown did an excellent job making North Carolina 'more than just a basketball school' back in the 1990s but then left for Texas. He would go 158-48 in his 16 years at Austin, leading the Longhorns to 15 bowl games. He posted 10 or more wins in NINE consecutive seasons (from 2001-09), famously winning the 2005 national championship over a great USC team. However, Texas would go just 30-21 from 2010 through 2013 and Brown resigned. He stepped away for five years but returned to North Carolina in 2019. The Tar Heels have gone a disappointing 21-17 in that span, as their explosive offense has been brought down by a leaky defense. No one will forget Appalachian St's shocking 34-32 road win over Michigan back in 2007, when the Mountaineers were still an FCS team. App St is now an FBS member and doing just fine. The Mountaineers have gone 83-19 (.814) the last seven years (2015-21), winning SIX consecutive bowl games before losing to WKU in last year's Boca Raton Bowl. They've had THREE different head coaches in that span, but the winning has never stopped. North Carolina QB Drake Maye has big shoes to fill in replacing record-setter Sam Howell. However, he fit into them just fine last Saturday in his debut for the Tar Heels. Maye threw five TD passes in his team's 56-24 win over visiting Florida A&M to become the first Tar Heels QB to accomplish the five-TD feat in his first career start. That said, winning at home vs a mediocre school like FAMU is one thing, winning at App St (38-5 the last seven years), is another. The Mountaineers have their own talented QB Chase Brice, who was just named last week to the watch list for the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award, a befitting honor for the sixth-year redshirt senior who established a school-record 3,337 passing yards last season. App St also returns the RB duo of Noel (1,128 yards / 5.7 YPC) and Peoples (926 yards / 14 TDs). FOUR of their five starting OL returns. In-state bragging rights are at stake here and has noted, Appalachian State has repeatedly found itself in the top-25 since moving up to the FBS. Appalachian State defeated North Carolina in 2019 at Chapel Hill, a loss that didn't sit well with Tar Heels fans given the Mountaineers have always been viewed as the little brother. Boone, North Carolina will be 'rocking' for this 12 noon ET start and I say "the little brother" gets a surprisingly comfortable win. Good luck...Larry |
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09-02-22 | Illinois v. Indiana -3 | Top | 20-23 | Push | 0 | 54 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* Big 10 Game of the Month is on Indiana at 8:00 ET. Two teams that don't figure to contend in the Big 10 conference in 2022 meet Saturday, when Illinois (5-7 LY) visits Bloomington to face Indiana (2-10 LY). Bret Bielema took over at Wisconsin when Barry Alvarez retired in 2006 and in seven years went 64-28, earning SEVEN consecutive bowl berths. He left to take the Arkansas job but went only 29-34 in five seasons and then spent a few years as as an NFL assistant, before being hired at Illinois for the 2021 season after Lovie Smith was fired, The Illini do have a game under their belts in 2022, having routed Wyoming 38-6 last Saturday. Tom Allen took over at Indiana after Kevin Wilson abruptly resigned back in 2016. He opened with back-to-back 5-7 seasons but led Indiana to a Gator Bowl berth and an 8-5 record in 2019, The Hoosiers were a HUGE surprise in the COVID season of 2022. They finished the 2020 regular season 6-1 ranked seventh in the AP poll, eighth in the coaches' poll, and 11th in the CFP rankings and earned a bid in the Outback Bowl, where they lost to Ole Miss, 20–26. Following the culmination of the season, Allen would be named the 2020 Big Ten Coach of the Year, Allen's 2021 Indiana team was ranked 17th to begin the 2021 season, but quickly fell out of the rankings after a 34-6 loss to Iowa in their first game of the season. The team finished the season 2-10 and went 0-9 in Big Ten play. Tommy DeVito, a transfer from Syracuse, was named the starter for Illinois (1-0) days before the opener. He was 27-of-37 for 194 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. RB Brown added 151 yards rushing with two TDs, The Hoosiers are taking a page from Illinois coach Bret Bielema's book by withholding the identity of their starting QB for the Friday night affair in Bloomington. Fifth-year senior Jack Tuttle started two games in 2021 but wasn't handed the starting job. He said he has carried himself "with a chip on my shoulder" since the end of last season, but he's locked in a duel with Missouri transfer Connor Bazelak. The former Tigers' QB made 20 starts at Mizzou and passed for 5,058 yards with 23 touchdowns, 17 interceptions and a 66.3 completion percentage. Here's why I like Indiana in this spot. The winning team has covered 14 straight in this series. Maybe even more notable for this game is that Indiana is a MONEY-MAKING 11-2 ATS as a home favorite during Allen's tenure. Expect Indiana to get the win at home and move the series win/cover streak to 15 in a row! Good luck...Larry |
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08-27-22 | North Texas v. UTEP +1.5 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* CFB 2022 Season Opener is on UTEP at 9:00 ET. North Texas and UTEP both ended last year's regular season at 6-6 and went 'bowling.' However, each team's journey to those 6-6 finishes came via very different paths. The Mean Green opened 1-6 but finished with FIVE straight wins (and covers), highlighted by the team's 45-33 win (as a 10-point home underdog) over an 11-0 UTSA team that was ranked No. 15. The team averaged a whopping 283.0 YPG rushing in its closing 5-0 run, including 340 against the Roadrunners. In stark contrast, UTEP got off to a surprising 6-1 start, before losing FOUR of five to end the regular season. What the teams did have in common was that both lost their respective bowl games. Of note, for UTSA's Seth Littrell, it was his FIFTH bowl appearance in his six seasons at UTSA. Meanwhile for UTEP head coach Dana Dimmel, last year's bowl game was the school's FIRST since 2014. What's more, UTEP's SEVEN victories in 2021 matched UTEP's total over the previous FIVE seasons combined. Deandre Torrey (1,215 / TDs) left for the NFL but was just released by the Eagles. North Texas does have equality and depth at RB but I don't see any way the Mean Green will average 233.5 YPG rushing like last season (5th-best in FBS). A real issue for North Texas is the team's QB play Austin Aune did lead North Texas to its season-ending five-game winning streak but as noted above, he was more of a 'caretaker,' as the Mean's Green's devastating rushing attack carried the load. Aune completed just 51.9 percent last season with 9 TDs and 9 INTs. That was a big drop off from his 13 TD, 4 INT season of 2020. The Miners own a solid edge at the QB position, as Gavin Henderson made a big leap from 2020, passing for 3,218 yards with 18 TDs and 13 INTs in 2021. It can NOT go unmentioned that in 2021, Hardison became the first UTEP signal caller to surpass 3,000 yards passing in school history. I believe he will be the "difference-maker" in this one. Let me add that UTEP also has a solid edge on defense with EIGHT starters back. The home team has covered SIX straight in this series and UTEP is 7-2 SU at home the last two years. Good luck...Larry |
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01-10-22 | Georgia -2.5 v. Alabama | Top | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 103 h 21 m | Show |
My 9* Marquee Matchup is on Georgia at 8:00 ET. I'm not sure that most wanted to see Alabama and Georgia in the College Football Playoff title game at Indianapolis on January 11. Alabama took apart Georgia 41-24 in last month's SEC title game and the one-sided nature of the contest dulled excitement over a possible second meeting. However, after Alabama eased past Cincinnati 27-6 in its CFP semifinal and Georgia destroyed Michigan 34-11 in its semifinal, an all-SEC rematch is what's 'on the menu' Monday night. The Crimson Tide are defending champions and are looking for their FOURTH title in eight seasons under the CFP format. Coach Nick Saban has won SIX national titles at Alabama and seven overall. One of the CFP titles was a 26-23 overtime victory over Georgia in the 2017 championship contest. That came in Kirby Smart's second season at the helm, after his stint as Saban's defensive coordinator at Alabama. |
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01-01-22 | Baylor v. Ole Miss -1 | Top | 21-7 | Loss | -114 | 39 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Bowl Game of the Year is on Ole Miss at 8:45 ET. The ever-lovable Lane Kiffin has led Ole Miss to a 10-2 record, as the Rebels get set to face 11-2 Baylor, which won the Big 12 championship with a 21-16 victory over Oklahoma St. Without a doubt, this contest is one of the more intriguing New Year's Day Six bowls. Ole Miss entered its season finale (The Egg Bowl vs Miss St) with 9-2 record. The program had produced SEVEN career 10-win campaigns (most recently Hugh Freeze's 10-3 showing in 2015) but all of the previous seven featured nine victories in the regular season and win No. 10 in a bowl game. The Rebels' 31-21 over the Bulldogs gave them their first-ever 10-win regular season and with a Sugar Bowl win, would have the school's first-ever 11-win season. Baylor hired Dave Aranda, LSU's DC who helped the Tigers complete one of the best-ever, single-seasons in CFB history in 2019. LSU went 15-0 in 2019 and while Joe Burrow and the offense (48.4 PPG) got most of the accolades, Aranda's defense held opponents to just 21.9 PPG. His first season at Baylor suffered because of COVID (like many programs), as the Bears would finish 2-7. However, it was a 'New Day' in 2021 for Baylor which earned a trip to the Big 12 championship game where it held on to beat Oklahoma St, 21-16. It marked Baylor's third Big 12 title but first-ever by capturing a win in the championship game. Baylor averages 32.5 PPG with a VERY balanced attack, as the Bears have averaged 216.0 YPG passing and 214.9 YPG on the ground. QB Bohannon is solid, completing 64.3% for 2,160 yards with 17 TDs and 6 INTs. He has added 303 yards, adding 9 more scores. RB Smith (1,429 yards on 6.2 YPC with 12 TDs) is a stud, plus fellow RB Ebner has 763 yards on 5.4 YPC with 2 TDs. The team's top WR is Thornton (61 catches / 15.5 YPC / 9 TDs) plus TE Sims has 31 catches with 6 TDs. Defense is an Aranda staple and Baylor enters having allowed 19.2 PPG. Ole Miss QB Matt Corral announced before the Egg Bowl that he would enter the 2022 NFL Draft but he decided to play for the Rebels in this game, first (so many have opted out in similar situations). It's an understatement that Kiffin was thrilled and so was OC Jeff Lebby, who is headed to Oklahoma after this game. The two will have a chance to produce the kind of numbers the Rebels did in the regular season, ranking fourth in total offense at 506.7 YPG (35.9 PPG). Like Baylor, Ole Miss has great balance, passing for 281.9 YPG and rushing for 224.7 YPG. Corral has completed 68.4% for 3,339 yards with 20 TDs and 4 INTs, plus has run for 597 yards and 11 TDs. He is just one of only four FBS quarterbacks with 20 passing touchdowns and at least 10 rushing scores. RB Ealy has 703 yards rushing (5.8 YPC / 5 TDs) and Conner has 605 yards (5.1 YPC plus 13 TDs. Ole Miss is the nation's ONLY offense with four rushers with at least 500 yards, as Parrish has 542 yards. WR Drummond (67 catches with 8 TDs) is the team's No. 1 receiving threat, but Corral has plenty of other options (targets). How about this? Ole Miss is also the ONLY team in the country with SIX players having recorded 100-yard receiving games this season! The defense is allowing 25.0 PPG but that's down from the 38.3 PPG Kiffin's Rebels allowed in his first in Oxford last year. Kudos to Aranda and this Baylor team but Ole Miss is 'playing in its backyard' here in the Sugar Bowl. Ole Miss is 12-2 in its last 14 bowl games dating back to the 1992 Liberty Bowl and 10-4 in bowls against current Big 12 members. The play is Ole Miss. "Hotty Toddy!" Good luck...Larry |
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01-01-22 | Utah v. Ohio State -4 | Top | 45-48 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
My 9* Rose Bowl play is on Ohio St at 5:00 ET. "The Granddaddy of them All" gets a terrific matchup in No. 6 Ohio St (1-2) playing No. 11 Utah (10-3). Ohio State had aspirations of playing for the national championship and will be 'on a mission' to make up for its 'disaster' against Michigan back on Nov 27, while Utah is playing in the Rose Bowl for the first time since joining the Pac-12 for the 2011 season.Â
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01-01-22 | Oklahoma State v. Notre Dame | Top | 37-35 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
My 9* Marquee Classic is on Oklahoma St at 1:00 ET. The 51st Fiesta Bowl is a meeting of two teams that have never faced each other in football, when No. 5 Notre Dame and No. 9 Oklahoma State play on New Year's Day at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Az. Notre Dame just missed making the final four of the College Football Playoff, while Oklahoma State fell short by just inches thanks to a touchdown-saving tackle from Baylor that, if not made, would have won the Big-12 Championship Game for the Cowboys and given them a strong case for the playoff. That set-up gives the Fiesta Bowl a terrific matchup between two schools with something to prove. On the coaching front, OSU's Mike Gundy starred at Stillwater as a QB and returned to coach his alma mater in 2005. He went just 4-7 (1-7 in Big 12 play) in his 'freshman year' but has now led Okie St to 16 straight bowl appearances (more in a bit). As for Notre Dame, the ever-classy Brian Kelly jumped ship at Notre Dame for LSU, leaving the Fiesta Bowl to be coached by first-time head coach Marcus Freeman.Â
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12-31-21 | Georgia -7.5 v. Michigan | Top | 34-11 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
My 9* Marquee Classic is on Georgia at 7:30 ET. Friday night's Orange Bowl clash between No. 2 Michigan and No. 3 Georgia is the very definition of a Marquee Classic. The only 'bigger' matchup we would have this season would be a national championship showdown featuring No. 1 Alabama vs the winner of this game. That seems likely, as the Crimson Tide are two-TD favorites over Cincinnati but then again...
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12-31-21 | Cincinnati +14 v. Alabama | Top | 6-27 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* Cotton Bowl Showdown is on Cincinnati at 3:30 ET. The 12-1 Crimson Tide (12-1) are coming off an impressive 41-24 over Georgia in the SEC championship game and are the No. 1 seed in this year's College Football Playoffs. This is 'old hat' for Alabama, as the Tide are making their SEVENTH appearance in the eight years that the current title-deciding format has been in place. Waiting for them in the Cotton Bowl (played at Arlington, Tx) will be 13-0 Cincinnati. The No. 4 Bearcats are the first non-Power 5 conference program to be selected for the College Football Playoff, breaking that proverbial 'glass ceiling.' Alabama "won it all" last season (52-24 over Ohio St) plus won the national title during the CFP era in 2015 and 2017, while taking a loss in the 2016 and 2018 title games. "There's a reason they've been in the playoffs seven out of the eight years," Cincinnati coach Luke Fickell said of Alabama. "This is not just a top-five program; this is THE top program." No doubt that it is a formidable challenge for Cincinnati, but the first step is overcoming the Alabama mystique. "Our players know who they're playing," Fickell said. "They know what (Alabama) is all about, what that program is all about. Now we have to try to find ways to humanize them and bring ourselves back into doing what we need to do. The reality is we're not the best team, probably. But that doesn't really matter, because on the 31st, it's really going to be about who is going to play the best." I think Fickell (did he really turn down the ND job?) has it "just right! The Bearcats will rely on the nation's second-best pass defense (168.3 YPG) to contain Heisman Trophy-winning Alabama QB Bryce Young. Overall, the Cincy defense allows just 16.1 PPG (5th) on 304.9 YPG (8th). The offense is led by QB Ridder, who has completed 65.9% for 3,190 yards with 30 TDs and just 8 INTs (in 355 attempts). He's a dangerous runner, who has gained 371 yards with 6 TDs. RB Ford (an Alabama transfer in 2019) is outstanding, gaining 1,242 yards on 6.2 YPC with 19 TDs. WR Pierce leads with 50 catches (167.3 YPC / 8 TDs) and is joined by WR Scott (26 / 18.3 YPC / 5 TDs) and TE Whyle (25 / 6 TDs). Bottom line, the Bearcats have averaged 39.2 PPG to rank 8th in scoring. The Heisman-winning Young has completed 68.0% for 4,322 yards with 43 TDs and just 4 INTs in 462 attempts. He was the Heisman favorite going into the SEC championship game but 'nailed it down' by passing for 421 yards with three TDs (zero INTs in 44 attempts) and ran for 40 yards, adding a 4th TD. John Metchie III (96 catches with 8 TDs) was one of two 1,000 yard receivers on the team (Jameson Williams is the other with 68 catches on 21.3 YPC with 15 TDs), but he's out with injury. RB Brian Robinson Jr. (1,071 yards on 4.8 YPC and 14 TDs) will be tested by going up against a Cincinnati defense that allowed just 3.3 YPC. The Alabama offense averages 42.5 PPG and while its defense has had some so-so efforts during the season, the unit enters this game allowing 20.2 PPG (20th) on 304.6 YPG (7th). The team stats are pretty similar but of course, Alabama has done it while playing in the SEC, compared to Cincy, which plays in the ACC. I agree that it's hard to see the Bearcats winning this game outright but taking two TDs allows plenty of room for error. The Cincinnati defense has 18 picks (third in the nation in the regular season) and 37 sacks (tied for 19th). Overall, Cincinnati has forced 33 turnovers on the season. Does this tid-bit matter? The Crimson Tide are 5-1 in national semifinals, with the loss coming in the inaugural CFP in 2014. That 42-35 setback came against Ohio State, which had Fickell as its co-defensive coordinator. I'm taking the points. Good luck...Larry |
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12-30-21 | Purdue v. Tennessee -6.5 | Top | 48-45 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* Music City Bowl play is on Tennessee at 3:00 ET. The 8-4 Purdue Boilermakers and the 7-5 Tennessee Volunteers meet in Thursday's Music City Bowl from Nissan Stadium in Nashville. It sets up as a clash of styles, as Tennessee's up-tempo offense goes up against Purdue's defense. The Purdue defense has lost George Karlaftis and on offense, WR David Bell, who caught 93 passes this season with 6 TDs. The Vols lost RB Evans to the transfer portal (headed to Louisville) but his absence in no way compares with Bell's loss for Purdue. Josh Heupel replaced Scott Frost at UCF and went 28-8 over three seasons, as his offense averaged 43.2, 43.4 and 42.2 PPG in those individual seasons. This is his first season at Tennessee. Heupel (an outstanding QB for Oklahoma) has helped Hendon Hooker develop into a true dual-threat QB. He took over as the starter Sep 18 and went 6-4 as a starter throwing 24 TD passes with only two interceptions. His season stats are 69.0% for 2,567 yards with 26 TDs and just three INTs plus ran for 561 yards with 5 TDs. His running, along with Small (612 yards / 5.4 YPC / 5 TDs) and Evans (525 yards / 6.5 YPC / 6 TDs) give the Vols an average of 211.6 YPG (20th). Tennessee averages 247.1 YPG giving it great balance and average 38.8 PPG (39th). Two WRs have 50-plus catches in Tillman (57 / 16.3 YPC / 9 TDs) and Jones (52 / 13.9 YPC / 6 TDs). More in a bit. Jeff Brohm became a 'hot' coaching commodity by leading Western Ky to a 30-10 record in three seasons and then moved on to Purdue. The Boilermakers went 6-6 in each of his first two seasons, winning a bowl game the first season (7-6) and losing the following season (6-7). Purdue fell to 4-6 in 2019 and was 2-4 in "The Year of COVID" in 2020. However, the Boilermakers have won eight games this season, including wins over then-No. 2 Iowa (24-7) and then-No.3 Michigan St (40-29). Fifth-year senior QB Aidan O'Connell led the Big Ten completing 73.5% of his passes and has completed 74% or better in SEVEN straight games. He enters this game with 3,178 passing yards (23 TDs / 8 INTs) but as noted, will not have WR Bell here. That;s BIG deal, especially when one notes that Purdue's running game is basically non-existent, averaging 84.2 YPG (127th). The Purdue defense allows just 20.5 PPG (22nd), a full SEVEN points less than Tennessee's. Let me start with Purdue. The program has been known as a 'giant killer' and as noted above, produced wins over Iowa and Mich St in 2021. What's more, QB O'Connell was at his best against top competition, averaging 433.7 yards, completing 75.3% of his passes and throwing nine TDs with no interceptions in games against Iowa, Michigan State and Ohio State. However, Tennessee is hardly a 'big fish,' but rather a team in search of an eighth win. That said, head coach Josh Heupel can become just the sixth Volunteers' coach all-time to win eight or more games in his debut season. Getting back to QB Hooker, he has climbed UT’s record book, but in a steady way that matches his even-keeled personality. Hooker is first in completion percentage (69%) and passing efficiency (182.16), sixth in total offense (3,128 yards), seventh in TD passes (26) and 12th in passing yards (2,567) in a single season in UT history despite starting only 10 games. His method involves consistency and poise. His 182.15 passer rating led the SEC and ranked third nationally. He has thrown at least one TD pass in 11 straight games, tied for the fourth-longest streak in school history. With due respect to O'Connell, I think Hooker gives Tennessee the edge at QB and it's no small matter that this game is being contested in Nashville. The Volunteers not only score fast, they have outscored opponents 169-44 in the first quarter this season. I'd love a repeat of that here! Tennessee has won FOUR straight bowl games, all against Big Ten opponents, and is 11-5 all-time against Big Ten teams in bowls. Here's what I wrote when taking Tennessee over Kentucky back on Nov 6. "The Vols finish with three straight home games, beginning with Georgia. However, a win here at Kentucky and then over South Alabama and Vandy would give Heupel a seven-win season and a chance to win eight games by winning a bowl game." The Vols beat Kentucky that day 45-42, lost to Georgia (no surprise) but beat South Alabama and Vandy. Now, to complete my earlier "prediction," the Vols need to win and of course, cover! That's the bet. Good luck...Larry |
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12-29-21 | Oregon v. Oklahoma -6.5 | Top | 32-47 | Win | 100 | 27 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* 'Signature' LEGEND Play is on Oklahoma at 9:15 ET. The 10-3 Oregon Ducks and the 10-2 Oklahoma Sooners meet Wednesday in The Alamo Bowl at the Alamodome in San Antonio. The Ducks are hoping to reach 11 wins for the EIGHTH time in school history, while the Oklahoma Sooners look for an 11-win season for the SEVENTH time in the last nine years. Both schools will be playing under an interim head coach, as Oregon's Mario Cristabol left Eugene for "South Beach" (Miami-Fl) and Lincoln Kennedy left Norman for the "Bright Lights of Hollywood" (USC). Assistant coach Bryan McClendon will coach the Ducks while the Sooners have decided that former head coach Bob Stoops, is the right man for this "ONE-game" coaching opportunity. |
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12-29-21 | Maryland -3.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 54-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
My 9* Pinstripe Bowl play is on Maryland at 2:15 ET. The 6-6 Maryland Terrapins and the 6-6 Virginia Tech Hokies meet Wednesday in the Pinstripe Bowl from Yankee Stadium. Maryland opened 4-0 but needed to win its final game of the season (40-16 over Rutgers) to get its sixth win. Va Tech opened the season with a 17-10 home upset of preseason No. 10 North Carolina and was 3-1 but then lost FOUR of its next five games.Like Maryland, the Hokites needed a win in their final game to become bowl eligible. The Hokies did just that, beating in-state rival Virginia 29-24 on the road. It was an emotional win for Va Tech, which had fired head coach Justin Fuente after a 5-5 start. J.C. Price was named interim head coach and will coach the Hokies again in this one. |
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12-28-21 | Texas Tech v. Mississippi State -9.5 | Top | 34-7 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* Liberty Bowl play is on Miss St at 6:45 ET. The 6-6 Texas Tech Red Raiders will take on the 7-5 Mississippi St Bulldogs Tuesday in the Liberty Bowl. Matt Wells is in his third season with Tech, after leading Utah St to bowls in FIVE of his six years with the Aggies. However, his Texas Tech teams went 4-8 and 4-6 in his first two seasons, before becoming bowl eligible in 2021 at 6-6. Mike Leach is the head coach at Miss St but knows Texas Tech VERY well. He was hired in 2000 and fired in 2009, amid allegations of abusing players (I'll leave that alone). What he did do was WIN, taking the Red Raiders to bowls in each of his 10 seasons in Lubbock. He was hired at Washington St in 2012 and after a 3-9 first season, led the Cougars to bowls in SIX of the next seven seasons. He moved on to Texas Tech in 2020 and went 3-7 amid COVID but got a bowl invite, anyway, eking out a 28-26 win over Tulsa in the Armed Forces Bowl. This year's team became bowl-eligible the old-fashioned way, winning seven games. |
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12-28-21 | Louisville v. Air Force +1.5 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 22 h 56 m | Show |
Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun was hired in Dec 2006 to take over for the retiring Fisher DeBerry, who in 23 seasons led the Falcons to 12 bowls (12 in his 1st 19 years, before falling off his final four). Calhoun "never missed a beat,' leading Air Force to NINE bowls in his first 10 seasons. Back-to-back 5-7 seasons followed in 2017 and '18 before an 11-2 season in 2019. COVID pretty much wiped out the school's 2020 season (3-3) but this year's team is 9-3 as it gets set to meet Louisville in the First Responder Bowl, played in Dallas at Gerald R Ford Stadium (SMU's home field). Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield was at Appalachian St when it moved up to FBS status in 2014 and went 7-5 that first season. He then led App St to four straight bowl appearances, winning the first three, before resigning before the New Orleans Bowl in 2018 to take the Louisville job. The Cardinals went 8-5 in 2019 (won the Music City Bowl over Miss St) but fell to 4-7 in 2020. The 2021 season was an up-and-down one but at 6-6, the Cards are back to being bowl eligible. The Cardinals' offense revolves around dual-threat QB Malik Cunningham, who has completed 62.0% for 2,734 yards with 18 TDs and 6 INTs. He has also run for 968 yards on 6.0 YPC with 19 TDs. He has been responsible for 37 scores and is the ONLY player in the nation who has both rushed and passed for more than 15 TDs. RB Mitchell adds 722 yards on 4.7 YPC (5 TDs), as Louisville averages 211.8 YPG (19th). That would be an impressive stat, but Air Force runs for 341.5 YPG, tops in the nation. QB Daniels has thrown for only 932 yards (5 TDs / 3 INTs) but is the team's second-leading rusher with 698 yards on 5.0 YPC with 9 TDs. Brad Roberts paces Air Force's rushing attack with 1,279 yards (4.6 YPC) and 13 TDs. Three more RBs chip in between 360 and 471 yards, averaging 6.1, 7.7 and 8.6 YPC. Moving to the defensive side of the ball, Louisville allows 27.0 PPG on 402.5 YPG. In stark contrast, Air Force has allowed 19.1 PPG (13th) on 288.8 YPG (5th). Louisville has faced EIGHT bowl-bound teams this season, going just 2-6, while allowing 33.0 PPG. Meanwhile, the 9-3 Falcons came pretty close to going 12-0 and playing for the Mountain West Conference title. Their three losses were all one-possession defeats, by a total of 17 points. Trends favoring Air Force are Louisville is a poor 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral-field contests, while Air Force is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 non-conference games. Air Force's HIGHLY underappreciated defense and its relentless ground attack (which will keep Cunningham on the sidelines) will be too much for Louisville to handle. Good luck...Larry |
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12-23-21 | Miami-OH v. North Texas +2.5 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Frisco Bowl-Part 2 is on North Texas at 3:30 ET. Thursday's inaugural Frisco Football Classic was created after the regular season to help accommodate a game for every eligible team. Both the Texas Mean Green and the Miami-Ohio RedHawks finished their regular campaigns with 6-6 records with North Texas dominating previously unbeaten No. 15 UTSA at home on Nov. 27 to become bowl-eligible.
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12-21-21 | San Diego State +2.5 v. UTSA | Top | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 110 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Frisco Bowl play is on San Diego St at 7:30 ET. UTSA (12-1) of Conference USA is in just its 10th season as an FBS program and is looking for its initial bowl victory. The school also has a chance to notch a rare 13th victory. The Roadrunners' opponent in the Frisco Bowl is San Diego State (11-2) of the Mountain West Conference. The Aztecs are looking to win 12 games for the first time in the school's Division I history (school has had 11-win seasons) in 1969, 2015 and 2016.Â
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12-18-21 | Oregon State -7 v. Utah State | Top | 13-24 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 41 m | Show |
My 9* Bowl Opener (LA Bowl) is on Oregon St at 7:30 ET. Anyone ever think there would be a Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl? Well there is and the 7-5 Oregon St Beavers of the Pac 12 will take on the 10-3 Utah St Aggies, the newly crowned champions of the MWC, after they impressively beat San Diego St 46-13 in the MWC championship game back on Dec 4.
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12-04-21 | Wake Forest v. Pittsburgh -3 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 127 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* Signature 38-Club Play is on Pittsburgh at 8:00 ET The 10-2 Pittsburgh Panthers (AP No. 17) and the 10-2 Wake Forest Demon Deacons meet Saturday in the ACC Championship Game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte (no Clemson this year, after the Tigers had won the last SIX!). Pat Narduzzi was hired as Pitt's head coach on Dec 26, 2014. He led Pitt to bowl games in FOUR of his first five seasons, before last year's team went 6-5 but declined an invite due to COVID conditions. However, this year has been special, as Pitt has lost at least three games in every season since 1981 and has not ended a season in the AP top-25 since the 1982 season. That could all change this season, beginning with the ACC title game. Dave Clawson is in his eighth season at Winston-Salem and considering his record was 40-45 coming into the 2021 season, it's safe to say that this is the best team he's had. The Demon Deacons opened 8-0 (first time in school history) and with a dominating 41-10 win last Saturday at Boston College, clinched the Atlantic Division with a 7-1 record (Pitt was 7-1 in the Coastal).
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11-27-21 | Oklahoma +4.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 33-37 | Win | 100 | 96 h 40 m | Show |
My 9* Marquee Classic is on Oklahoma at 7:30 ET. The 10-1 Oklahoma Sooners and the 10-1 Oklahoma State Cowboys meet Saturday from Boone Pickens Stadium in a series nicknamed "Bedlam." Oklahoma opened as the AP's No. 2 ranked team and while the season was full of close calls the Sooners were 9-0 before losing 27-14 at Baylor on November 13. Oklahoma bounced back with a 28-21 win over Iowa St last Saturday and that means a win in Stillwater means the Sooners will advance to the Big 12 championship game. Oklahoma St just missed making the AP's preseason poll (ranked first among "others receiving votes") but has put together a terrific season, going 10-1 (lone loss was 24-21 at Iowa St), beating three ranked opponents along the way. Cutting to the case, Oklahoma St has already clinched a spot in next Saturday's Big 12 championship game but if the Cowboys don't want to have to face the Sooners again next Saturday, they'll have to beat them here. Oklahoma QB Spencer Rattler was one of the Heisman favorites but lost his job to Caleb Williams, who gave the offense a big boost initially but he's struggled recently. Wiliams enters the game having completed 65.5% for 1,418 yards with 15 TDs and 4 INTs plus he'as added 372 rushing yards (7.0 YPC / 6 TDs). However, in the loss to Baylor and last week's win over Iowa St, he completed just 17 of 36 (47.2%) for 229 yards with one TD and 3 INTs (84 yards rushing and two TDs). RB Brooks is explosive and has gained 972 yards on 6.0 YPC with 10 TDs for a running game that averages 175.4 YPG (56th). WR Haselwood has the most catches (36) and TDs (6) but averages only 10.6 YPC. Mims has 29 catches and 4 TDs plus is the "big play guy" averaging 22.2 YPC. The Oklahoma defense allows 24.2 PPG, which works when the team's offense averages 38.9 PPG QB Sanders has put up good but not great numbers for Okla St. He's completed 60.2% for 1,997 yards with 15 Tds and 6 INTs, while running for 417 yards with 5 TDs. RB Warren has topped 1,000 years (1,078) on 4.9 YPC and 10 TDs (Cowboys average 195.7 YPG to rank 33rd). WR Martin leads with 54 catches (6 Tds), while Presley has 35 catches (5 TDs). The defensive edge certainly goes to the Cowboys, who rank 3rd nationally in both points allowed (14.90 and yards allowed (261.3). This is the 116th meeting between the two schools and Oklahoma leads 90–18–7. Most notably, Oklahoma has won six straight and 16 out of the last 18 in the series. This year’s game marks the first time since 1984 that both will be ranked in the top 10 at the time of the game. It should be noted that while Oklahoma is just 4-6 ATS against FBS opponents this season, Oklahoma St lost its first game this season ATS but takes a 9-game ATS winning streak into this showdown. I will also note that the Sooners are an underdog in a non-bowl game for the first time since the 2017 edition of "Bedlam" (62 straight games) when the Sooners (as a 2.5-point underdog) beat the Cowboys 62-52 in Stillwater. See you all again next Saturday in a rematch of Okla/Okla St in the Big 12's 2021 championship game. Good luck...Larry |
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11-27-21 | Texas A&M v. LSU +6.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 62 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND Play is on LSU at 7:00 ET. The Aggies felt that they were snubbed last season, finishing FIFTH in the CFP rankings. A%M opened No. 6 in the AP's preseason poll but after a 3-0 start, A&M lost 20-10 to Arkansas (neutral site) and at home 26-22 to Miss St. However, A&M's 41-38 home victory over then-No. 1 Alabama on Oct 9 gave the team's season new 'life.' A&M added three more victories after the Alabama win, riding some dominating defense in which the Aggies allowed only 31 points in those three games. However, A&M came up short on Nov 13 in Oxford, losing 29-19 to Ole Miss. A 52-3 win over Prairie View A&M hardly eased the pain of the Ole Miss loss. The 8-3 Aggies now finish up a disappointing season at LSU on Saturday. Talk about disappointing! LSU's 2019 'magical' season seems more like 20 years ago, not just two. LSU opened the season with a loss at UCLA but then won THREE in a row. However, the Tigers have lost FIVE of seven since, with their only two wins coming 49-42 over a Florida team that has 'IMPLODED' and ULM. LSU and head coach Ed Orgeron reached agreement last month on a buyout that will take place at the end of the season. At 5-6, LSU's season would end with a loss to Texas A&M but a win would make the Tigers bowl-eligible and allow Orgeron to coach his final game as LSU's head coach in a bowl game. QB Calzado is hardly a star for A%M, completing only 56.0% of his passes for 1,943 yards with 14 TDs and 9 INTs. His top-two receivers are WR Smith (41 catches / 6 TDs) and TE Wydermyer (36 catches / 4 TDs) but A&M does have a pair of RBs that allow the team to average 195.0 YPG (34th). Spiller has run for 984 yards (5.9 YPC / 6 TDs) and Achane has 861 yards (7.3 YPC / 9 TDs). The A&M offense averages 29.8 PPG (60) but it's the defense that carries this team, allowing 14.9 PPG (2nd in the nation!). Max Johnson is no Joe Burrow but don't put the blame on him for LSU's less-than satisfying season. He's completing 60.6% for 2,509 yards with 24 TDs and 11 INTs. WR Bech has 42 catches (just 3 TDs) and fellow WR Boutte has 38 but 9 TDs. A HUGE issue has been a running game that is averaging only 109.8 YPG (117th) on 3.2 YPC. That said, RB Davis-Price has 919 yards (4.8 YPC with 6 TDs) and is capable of a big game (see the Florida game when he ran for 287 yards). LSU is averaging 27.1 PPG and allowing 25.5. Remember that 2019 team? It averaged 48.4, while allowing 21.9Â I will go on record to say that A&M was overrated last season and the team's effort this season, save the Alabama upset, has been disappointing as well. That defense is terrific but note that the Aggies have hardly been 'road warriors' in 2021. They edged the Buffs 10-7 at Colorado early on, then lost to Arkansas and Ole Miss (see above for both recaps). Should we really be impressed by the team's 34-14 at Missouri? I've NEVER been an Ed Orgeron fan but he is a motivator. Note that despite the team's lack of any consistent scoring, LSU had Alabama on its heels in a 20-14 loss and pushed Arkansas into OT in a 16-13 loss. LSU has six losses but those defeats have come against ranked and quality teams. Oregron's "Win One for the Gipper" pregame 'sermon' just could motivate LSU to get the outright win and give "Mr Ed" a bowl game to prepare for. Taking the points here is an easy choice. Good luck...Larry |
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11-27-21 | Wake Forest v. Boston College +5.5 | Top | 41-10 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Boston College at 12:00 ET. No. 18 Wake Forest will know the result of the North Carolina/NC State game (Friday night) when it takes the field at 12 noon ET in Chestnut Hill, Ma on Saturday, If NC State beats North Carolina, the Demon Deacons will need to beat BC in order to win the Atlantic Division and play Pittsburgh in the ACC title game next Saturday. Even if the Wolpack lose to the Tar Heels, the Demon Deacons would still need to win, because losses by NC St and Wake would give Clemson the Atlantic Division title! |
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11-26-21 | Washington State v. Washington +1 | Top | 40-13 | Loss | -107 | 48 h 18 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Rout (Apple Cup) is on Washington at 8:00 ET. COVID pretty much wiped out almost all of the 2020 season for Washington St (1-3) and its in-state rival Washington (3-1). Both teams had new head coaches in 2020, Nick Rolovich at Washington St and Jimmy Lake at Washington. As the two rivals square off for the latest edition of the series called "The Apple Cup," both teams have a different head coach. Nick Rolovich lost his job for not following the state's COVID-19 mandate, while Jimmy Lake was let go because the Huskies, who were ranked No. 20 in the AP's preseason poll, were just 4-6 through 10 games. Incredibly, after his Cougars beat lowly Arizona 48-14 last week, Washington State interim head coach Jake Dickert said, "There's still a lot to play for." He was alluding to the Apple Cup rivalry against Washington and the Cougars' impending bowl game. However, a day later, when Oregon lost, Dickert could add a potential Pac-12 North championship to the list of things his team could still accomplish. Say what? With a WSU victory in Seattle on Friday, and an Oregon State win over Oregon on Saturday, the Cougars would tie for first place atop the division with the Ducks and Beavers. Washington State would hold the tiebreaker with a 4-1 record in divisional play and would advance to the Pac-12 title game in Las Vegas on Dec 3. As for Washington and Bob Gregory, in his eighth season on the Huskies' staff, the team that was No. 20 in the preseason, can only hope to play 'spoiler' as at 4-7 / 3-5), the Huskies have failed to qualify for a bowl game for the first time since 2009. Wash St QB DeLaura is completing 62.3% for 2,512 yards with 23 TDs and 9 INTs. The Cougars' running game is averaging just 123.2 YPG (105th), although RB Borhi (751 yards / 5.4 YPC / 10 TDs) is a solid player. WRs Harris (68 catches / 9 TDs) and Jackson (57 / 15.6 YPC / 7 TDs) are an impressive duo. The Wash St defense allows 25.3 PPG, ranking 58th. Washington QB Morris completes 60.6% for 2,456 yards but has a poor 14-12 TD-to-INT ratio. The running game is pretty much non-existent, averaging 108.8 YPG (118th). The Huskies are scoring only 22.3 PPG (106th), leaving it to the team's defense to keep them competitive (22.1 PPG allowed ranks 28th). Washington St has EVERYTHING to play for in this game, while Washington can only play spoiler. Does recent series count for anything? If it does, the Cougars are in trouble. Washington has dominated the Apple Cup, going 10-1 SU (9-2 ATS) and has won the last SEVEN overall (ALL by double digits), longest series winning streak since UW’s 8-game run from 1974-’81). Bottom line, this is basically Washington's de-facto bowl game with no postseason in its future. Here's why I believe Washington can win. In Its first game under Bob Gregory, the Huskies outgained the Buffs of Colorado by a 426-183 margin (22-9 advanatge in FDs), while holding them to just 2 of 13 on third-down opportunities. The Huskies were 'done in' by a minus-4 TO deficit. Washington St will get a chance to go bowing' in December, while Washington gets its 'bowl game' and a W-I-N on Friday at home. Good luck...Larry |
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11-26-21 | North Carolina v. NC State -5.5 | Top | 30-34 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* Game of the Week (ACC) is on NC State at 7:00 ET. North Carolina opened No. 10 in the AP's preseason poll and was led by one of the Heisman favorites, QB Sam Howell. However, as the Tar Heels roll into Raleigh to take on rival North Carolina St, Mack Brown's team is an UNDERWHELMING 6-5. Meanwhile, Dave Doeren's Wolfpack come in 8-3 (5-2 ACC) and can still take the ACC Atlantic Division with a win and a Wake Forest loss on Saturday at Boston College. Sam Howell has had an excellent season but NOT a Heisman-like season, completing 63.5% for 2,704 yards with 22 TDs and 8 INTs, while rushing for 717 yards (4.7 YPC / 9 TDs). He sat out last week (upper body injury) and his status for this game has not been determined. Howell's running plus that of RB Chandler (1,004 yards (6.0 YPC / 13 TDs) gives the Tar Heels an excellent rushing attack (212.7 YPFG to rank 20th). WR Downs is having a terrific season with 90 catches (13.3 YPC / 8 TDs) plus Green may only have 26 receptions, but he averages 20.3 YPC with 5 TDs. North Carolina can score (37.0 PPG ranks 14th) but the defense is 'ugly,' allowing 31.4 PPG (98th). QB Devin Leary did not come into the season with the hype of Howell but is having a terrific season, completing 65.8% for 3,186 yards with 31 TDs and only 5 INTs. RBs Knight (684 yards / 5.2 YPC / 3 TDs) and Person (573 yards / 4.6 YPC / 5 TD) are solid but the team is only averaging 127.8 YPG on the ground (98th). Emezie leads with 55 catches (4 TDs), while Thomas (47 / 7 TDs) and Carter (31 / 6 TDs) give Leary multiple options. The offense is not far behind North Carolina's (33.0 PPG ranks 24th) but the HUGE edge comes on the defensive side of the ball, where the Wolfpack are holding opponents to 18.7 PPG (13th), almost two TDs less than the Tar Heels' D. Here's the bottom line, Howell's status is up in the air and the Tar Heels would LOVE to hand their rival a loss, knocking them out a chance to win the Atlantic Division. However, North Carolina is 0-4 away from Chapel Hill, losing 17-10 at Va Tech, 45-22 to Ga Tech at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, 44-34 at Notre Dame and 30-23 at Pitt. Meanwhile, Dave Doeren just could have a 'magical' season in 2021. A win here gives NC St nine wins and could lead to a championship game appearance and a bowl berth. He's been at NC St since 2013 and has led NC St to bowls in seven of the last eight years but his teams have never won more than nine games. NC St can't control what Wake Forest does but the Wolfpack can win (and cover) here against a team that hasn't wom awy from home in four previosu tries, while allowing 39.3 PPG in its last three away games Good luck...Larry |
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11-25-21 | Ole Miss +1.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 47 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* CFB Thursday Game of the Year is on Ole Miss at 7:30 ET. The ever-lovable Lane Kiffin will take Ole Miss (9-2, 5-2 SEC) to Starkville to play Mississippi State (7-4, 4-3) in the Egg Bowl, the state's annual Thanksgiving matchup between these two in-state rivals. Two of the nation's best QBs will be the featured attraction. Ole Miss' Matt Corral is completing 67.5% for 3,100 yards with 19 TDs and just three INTs. He's also run for 552 yards and 10 more scores. His counterpart is Mississippi State's sophomore Will Rogers. He is completing a staggering 76% for 4,113 yards with 34 TDs and eight INTs. NO QB in the nation has put up the numbers Rogers has in his last nine games, as he has clipsed 300 passing yards in each contest, with more than 400 yards in four of them! The edge for Ole Miss on the offensive side of the ball is a running game that averages 231.1 YPG (8th), as RBs Ealy (643 yards / 6.1 YPC / 5 TDs) and Connor (561 yards / 5.2 YPC / 11 TDs) join Corral for quite a balanced attack that is averaging 517.4 YPG overall (5th). WR Drummond is the best receiver (53 / 8 TDs) but four other WRs average between 15.6 and 22.1 YPC! In fact, Ole Miss is the ONLY team in the country with SIX players having recorded 100-yard receiving games this season! Th e defense is allowing 25.4 PPG, plenty good enough when the offense is averaging 36.4 points. Obviously, Rogers has thrived in Mike Leach's "Air Raid" offense but with the Bulldogs' running game averaging a putrid 62.1 YPG (129th) on 3.0 YPC, there is never any room for error with Miss St's passing game. WR Polk leads the way with 88 catches (9 TDs) and much like the Rebels' receiver corps, the Bulldogs have plenty of depth and talent. Much like Ole Miss, the Mississippi St defense allows 24.7 PPG but it doesn't own the kind of balance the Ole Miss offense has. Ole Miss has gotten healthier as the season has progressed and was clearly looking ahead last Saturday in only beating Vandy 31-17 but a win here would be VERY special. The Ole Miss program owns seven career 10-win campaigns (most recently Hugh Freeze's 10-3 showing in 2015) but all of the previous seven featured nine victories in the regular season and win No. 10 in a bowl game. A win here gets Ole Miss to 10-2 and could possibly lead to a New Year's Six Bowl berth. "Hotty Toddy!" Good luck...Larry |
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11-20-21 | Oregon v. Utah -3 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 63 h 38 m | Show |
My 9* Marquee Classic is on Utah at 7:30 ET. The 9-1 Oregon Ducks retained their No. 3 spot in the CFP rankings on Tuesday and will take a five-game winning streak into their Saturday night game in Salt Lake City against the 7-3 Utah Utes (Utah moved into the CFP rankings at No. 23). Oregon is 6-1 in league play and leads the Pac-12 North by two games, while Utah's 6-1 league mark gives them just a one-game edge over Arizona St in the Pac-12 South. Oregon can clinch the North title and a spot in the conference championship game with a win Saturday or an Oregon State loss. Utah can clinch the South with a win over the Ducks or an Arizona State loss. This could very well be a preview of the Pac 12 championship game.
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11-20-21 | Virginia Tech v. Miami-FL -7 | Top | 26-38 | Win | 100 | 109 h 3 m | Show |
My CFB 10* Game of the Year is on Mia-Fl at 7:30 ET. A pair of 5-5 ACC teams square off at Hard rock Stadium in Miami on Saturday night, as the Va Tech Hokies meet the Miami Hurricanes. Both are also 3-3 in the ACC's Coastal Division and are no threat to reach the ACC title game but both are just ONE win shy of becoming bowl-eligible. Virginia Tech hosted the Duke Blue Devils last Saturday and came away with a 48-17 win. QB Braxton Burmeister threw for 215 yards, three TDs, one interception, plus added 71 rushing yards on the ground. RBs Raheem Blackshear and Keshawn King combined for 207 yards and two TD on just 21 carries. Miami visited the Florida State Seminoles last Saturday and left with a heart breaking 31-28 defeat. The Hurricanes overcame a 17-0 deficit to take a 28-20 lead early in the fourth quarter but FSU scored 10 points in the final five minutes to get the win. QB Tyler Van Dyke went 25/47 threw for 316 yards, four touchdowns (to four different players!) and two interceptions. |
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11-20-21 | UCLA v. USC +3.5 | Top | 62-33 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 20 m | Show |
My 9* 'Battle 4 LA' is on USC at 4:00 ET. The UCLA Bruins and the USC Trojans meet in Pac-12 action from the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Saturday with the winner earning the "Victory Bell." The Bruins are 6-4 (4-3 in the Pac 12) while the Trojans are 4-5 (3-4). The Bruins are coming off a 44-20 win over Colorado in their last game, after back-to-back losses to Oregon and Utah, which took them out of any Pac 12 championship game hopes. USC opened the season as the AP's No. 15 team but opened just 3-2 and then saw its season crumble, with just ONE win (over then winless Arizona) in its next four games. Last week's game at Cal was postponed and will be made up Dec 4. Good luck...Larry |
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11-20-21 | Texas +3.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 23-31 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 19 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Texas at 12: 00 ET. Texas began the season ranked 21st in the AP's preseason and opened with a 38-18 win over ULL (note: ULL has NOT lost since and at 9-1, is ranked 22nd in the current AP poll). The Longhorns lost 40-21 to Arkansas in their second game but then won three in a row, to enter their HUGE rivalry game with Oklahoma at 4-1 (still No. 21 in the AP poll). However, after taking a 28-7 lead in the first quarter, the Longhorns saw the game (and maybe their season?) crumble. Oklahoma would outscore Texas 25-3 in the 4th quarter for a 55-48 win and Texas hasn't won since. Texas hit 'rock bottom' with its 57-56 (OT) loss at home to Kansas, a team that entered this season 5-84 in Big 12 play the previous decade, as well as with a 2-52 road record in all games. 4-6 Texas now 'limps' into Morgantown to take on the 4-6 West Va Mountaineers. West Va head coach Neal Brown is in his third season with the Mountaineers and entered the current season 11-11. West Va comes into this game 4-6, off back-to-back losses (by the combined score of 58-20) and like Texas, would need to win its last two games to become bowl-eligible. However, it's hard to imagine either of these teams thinking too much about a bowl bid, as just a plain "W" would do. No one can argue Texas doesn't have the offense to be among the top-25 teams, as QB Thompson is completing 64.3% for 1,914 yards with 23 TDs and just 7 INTs. RB Robinson has 1,227 yards rushing on 5.8 YPC and 11 TDs, as Texas is averaging 37.8 PPG (13th). However, the defense is a MESS, allowing 32.5 PPG (107th) on 437.0 YPG (105th). West Va QB Doege is completing 65.5% for 2,448 yards but has a much more modest TD/INT ratio at 13-10. RB Brown gained over 1,000 yards last year in 10 games but through 10 games this season has just 751 (but 11 TDs). West Va's offense (25.7) averages about a TD less per game than Texas does but its defense (24.1) allows about a TD less per game. The visitor in this series had won four in a row and West Va almost made it five in row last year, falling just 17-13 at Austin. In the end, this contest is not about the numbers. Texas (on paper) is the MUCH better team and is getting points. The 'key' will be if the Longhorns can 'Cowboy Up,' as they like to say in Texas. The Longhorns 'booted' head coach Tom Herman (32-18 in four years at Texas, leading the Longhorns to four bowl wins), for Steve Sarkisian. One wonders how Sarkissian could survive by losing SEVEN in a row to end the year (Texas is home to Kansa St in its final game)? How can the Texas defense possibly play worse and if Sarkisian can't 'rally his troops' to a win here, he deserves to be 'voted out of office! Take the FG or so with Texas. Hook 'em Horns! Good luck...Larry |
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11-19-21 | Air Force +2 v. Nevada | Top | 41-39 | Win | 100 | 77 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* Friday Night Game of the Year is on Air Force at 9:00 ET. The Air Force Falcons and Nevada Wolf Pack meet Friday night at Mackay Stadium in Reno, Nv. Both schools are 7-3, including 4-2 in MWC play. Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun is in his 15th season since following the legendary Fisher DeBerry (23 years). He led Air Force to 10 bowl games in his first 13 seasons, before the team went 2-2 in 2020's COVID-shortened season. The Falcons will be back 'bowling' in 2021. Nevada is coached by Jay Norvell, who arrived in Reno in 2017. Norvell went 3-9 in his first season but has led the Wolf Pack to three straight bowls since then, including going 7-2 in last year's pandemic-shortened season after beating Tulane 38-27 in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Air Force has thrown just 98 passes in its nine games but as will come as no surprise, leads the nation in rushing at 311.1 YPG , averaging 4.9 YPC with 31 TDs. RB Roberts has 1,064 yards (10 TDs) and QB Daniels has 646 yards (9 TDs). Two other players of note are Davis (360 yards on 7.7 YPC) and Hughes (250 yards on 7.8 YPC). Air Force's defense is often overlooked but shouldn't be, as the Falcons are allowing only 17.6 PPG (11th) on 288.3 YPC (5th). While Air Force 'lives' by the run, Nevada 'lives' by the pass. QB Strong completed 70.1% with 27 TDs and 4 INTs last season and comes into this game completing 70.5% for 3,547 yards with 29 TDs and 7 INTs. He's put those kinds of numbers despite a running game that averages only 64.2 YPG (129th) on 2.6 YPC. Three receivers have 50-plus catches, led by WRs Doubs (64 / 7 TDs) and Stovall (51 / 1 TD) plus TE Turner has 55 with 8 TDs. Nevada is averaging 34.9 PPG. The Nevada D is not bad, allowing 24.2 PPG (55th). Nevada is 5-0 at home this season and will take a 9-game home winning streak into this contest but one MUST take into consideration that Air Force is 4-0 on the road, while going 4-0 ATS as well. Breaking down the matchup we find that the Air Force defense allows just 184.1 YPG through the air, ranking 14th in the nation. On the other hand, I believe Air Force will be able to run effectively against Nevada and that also serves the purpose of keeping Strong on the sidelines. Take the 'Flyboys!' Good luck...Larry |
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11-13-21 | Utah State v. San Jose State -4.5 | Top | 48-17 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 7 m | Show |
My 9* Late Show' play is on San Jose St at 10:30 ET. The Utah State Aggies were blown out in their first three games last season and head coach Gary Anderson was let go. The Aggies played just six games in 2020, ending 1-5. Blake Anderson was hired away from Arkansas St and he brought QB Logan Bonner with him. The result? Utah St is 7-2 overall, including 4-1 in the MWC's Mountain Division. San Jose St shocked almost all by going 7-0 SU and ATS to win the MWC in 2020, beating Boise St in the championship game, 34-20 (as a 7-point underdog). However, the Spartans then lost (as a 9-point favorite) 34-13 to Ball St in the Arizona Bowl. Still, with 19 returning starters, Brent Brennan's team entered the current season with high expectations. However, the Spartans are just 5-5, including 3-3 in the West Division. The two schools meet Saturday night in San Jose. Bonner has been very good, completing 61.3% for 2,486 yards with 21 TDs and 9 INTs. Bonner has an excellent group of receivers, led by Thompkins (72 catches / 18.3 YPC / 8 TDs). He's joined by a trio that combines for 87 catches and 14 TDs. RBs Tyler (516 yards / 5.0 YPC / 4 TDs) and Noa (431 yards / 4.2 YPC / 3 TDs) give the Aggies some nice balance on offense, as the Aggies are averaging 31.8 PPG (43rd) on 474.9 YPG (12th). The defense is an issue, as Utah St allows 27.2 PPG (79th) on 425.3 YPG (101st). QB Nick Starkel is off a very good season (64.2% with 17 TDs and 7 INTs) but he's been inconsistent and has been replaced by Nick Nash at times. Starkel is completing a poor 50.8% for 1,207 yards with 9 TDs and 6 INTs, while Nick Nash has thrown for 971 yards with 6 TDs and 3 INTs plus run 359 yards. RB Tyler Nevens leads the Spartans with 699 rushing yards (4.8 YPC / 6 TDs). TE Deese leads with 42 catches (16.1 YPC / 4 TDs). San Jose St is averaging just 21.4 PPG (down from 28.6 PPG) but its defense is holding opponents to 23.0 PPG (50th) on 355.9 YPG (46th). Recent series history all favors Utah St (San Jose St had won 11 of 12 but Utah St has won the last EIGHT meetings) but oddsmakers have made the 5-5 Spartans more than a three-point favorite over the 7-2 Aggies. Wonder why? Utah St is a money-burning 11-24 ATS in its last 35 games as an underdog. Meanwhile, San Jose St enters on a 4-game ATS winning streak and chalk this up as a game many will call an upset (a 5-5 team beating a 7-2 team), unaware that the Spartans are the favorite in the game. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-13-21 | Arkansas -2.5 v. LSU | Top | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 75 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* SEC Game of the Year is on Arkansas at 7:30 ET. Sam Pittman did an excellent job as Georgia's OL coach and got his first head coaching gig at Arkansas in 2020. Not much went right, as the Razorbacks finished 3-7. More than a few publications had Arkansa pegged as the 7th team in the SEC's 7-team SEC West but Arkansas opened 4-0 SU and ATS, with wins over then-No. 15 Texas (40-21) and then-No. 7 Texas A&M (20-10). However, the Razorbacks are just 2-3 (1-4 ATS) over their last five games. At 6-3 (25th in the latest CFP rankings), Arkansa travels to Baton Rouge to take on the LSU Tigers, who check in at 4-5 (2-4 in the SEC). Arkansas is off a hard-fought 31-28 victory against Mississippi State, while LSU scared the 'you know what' out of Alabama in Tuscaloosa last Saturday night, falling just 20-14 as a 4-TD underdog (FYI...LSU was my free play!). Arkansas QB Jefferson has had an excellent season, completing 64.2% for 1,848 yards with 16 TDs and just 3 INTs. He is also one of FOUR Arkansas players with more than 400 yards rushing, as the team's running game ranks 4th in the nation averaging 244.3 YPGÂ on 5.3 YPC. Burks (48 catches / 16.6 YPC / 8 TDs) is the lone receiver of note but the Arkansas offense is good enough to average 32.6 PPG (35th) on 457.8 YPG (21st). Defensively, Arkansas is credible, allowing 24.0 PPG (57th) on 351.2 YPG (41st). LSU's 2019 'magical' season seems more like 20 years ago, not just two. LSU opened the season with a loss at UCLA but then won THREE in a row. However, the Tigers have lost FOUR of five since, with their lone win coming 49-42 over a Florida team that has 'IMPLODED!' The Gators opened 3-1 (lone blemish was a two-point loss to Alabama) but has now lost FOUR of five (only win over 2-7 Vandy, which is 0-5 in the SEC). Max Johnson has done a credible job at QB, completing 60.1% for 2,169 yards with 22 TDs and 6 INTs. A HUGE issue is a running game that is averaging only 112.0 YPG (116th) on 3.4 YPC. It's actually worse than that, as LSU ran for 321 yards vs Florida. Take that one game away and LSU is averaging 85.6 YPG. The LSU defense is allowing 27.8 PPG (79th). LSU and head coach Orgeron reached agreement last month on a buyout that will take place at the end of the season. The Tigers need two wins in their last three games to become bowl eligible and extend Orgeron's tenure by one game. Coming off the team's 'leave it all on the field' effort at Alabama, I find it hard to believe that LSU doesn't suffer a letdown in this one. Orgeron said Max Johnson remains the team's starting QB but against Arkansas he'll give freshman Garrett Nussmeier "significant snaps at the beginning of the game, and we'll see how it goes." How is that a good thing? The Tigers allowed just SIX yards rushing to the Tide last week (how is that possible?), after allowing 330 to Kentucky and 265 to Ole Miss. Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman is taking it one game at a time: "I believe LSU played as physical and as hard as they had all year," Pittman assessed earlier in the week. "Coach Orgeron certainly has the attention of the team still and they're very, very talented. From what I saw on film, compared to the other weeks, I thought they played extremely well and physically on Saturday against Alabama."Arkansas plays with the added incentive of revenge here after falling 27-24 in the last meeting on November 21st of last year. Yes, Alabama is up next but how could Arkansa be looking ahead? The LAST thing this team needs is a loss heading into that contest. Arkansas is the better team and I expect it to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable win and cover. Good Luck...Larry |
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11-13-21 | Arizona State v. Washington +6 | Top | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 53 h 46 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Washington at 7:00 ET. Washington was ranked 20th in the AP's preseason poll and fellow Pac-12 member Arizona St checked in at No. 25. However, as these two conference rivals at Seattle on the second Saturday of November, both teams have been disappointments. Arizona St has had the better season, as its 31-16 victory against visiting USC last Saturday got them to 6-3, making them bowl-eligible. Arizona State will face an interim coach when the Sun Devils travel to Washington for a Pacific-12 Conference matchup Saturday. Washington's 26-16 home loss to No. 4 Oregon last Saturday dropped the Huskies to 4-5 (3-3 in the Pac-12). To add insult to injury, Washington head coach Jimmy Lake was suspended for a week by athletic director Jen Cohen for a sideline altercation with one of his players. That means defensive coordinator Bob Gregory will act as head coach for the game.
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11-13-21 | Texas A&M v. Ole Miss +2.5 | Top | 19-29 | Win | 100 | 24 h 7 m | Show |
My 9* Marquee Classic in on Ole Miss at 7:00 ET. Texas A&M (7-2, 4-2) has its sights set on the SEC's West Division title, a goal that requires not only winning its next two conference games but also requires Alabama (8-1, 5-1) to lose to either Arkansas or Auburn. A&M can't control what Alabama does, so all the team can do is 'take care of business' and then wait and see. Ole Miss (7-2, 3-2) has already lost to Alabama, so the Rebels' hopes of a SEC West title are not quite realistic. However, the winner of this game does put itself in prime position for a New Year's Six Bowl (A&M is 11th in the latest CFP rankings and Ole Miss is 15th). The Aggies are riding some strong momentum, after their 41-38 victory on Oct 9 over No.1-ranked Alabama gave their season new 'life' (A&M entered that contest on a two-game slide). A&M has added three more victories since the Alabama win, riding some dominating defense in which the Aggies have allowed only 31 points the last three games. The team now ranks 2nd in the nation in allowing 14.7 PPG on 318.3 YPG (15th). Offensively, OB Calzado is no star, completing just 54.9% for 1,556 yards with 12 TDs and 7 INTs. His two best options are WR Smith (35 catches / 6 TDs) and TE Wydermyer (30 catches / 13.5 YPC / 4 TDs). Calzado does get help from a running game that is averaging 191.7 YPG (40th), led by the duo of Spiller (873 yards on 6.1 YPC with 5 TDs) and Achane (706 yards on 7.4 YPC with 5 TDs). The Aggies are averaging 38.6 PPG, which works well when one's defense is allowing about HALF that many points! The "ever-lovable" Lane Kiffin has himself quite a team in Oxford this season, one which has a chance to match the 2015 team that went 10-3 after a 48-20 win over Oklahoma St in the Sugar Bowl. QB Matt Corral has completed 66.9% for 2,5627 yards with 16 TDs and just two INTs. Corral also chips in a team-leading 528 yards on 4.6 YPC and 10 TDs on the ground while three RBs add between 436 and 471 yards, giving Ole Miss the 5th-best running game in the nation at 237.9 YPG. Corall's one standout receiver is WR Drummond (40 catches / 16.5 YPC / 6 TDs). That said, Ole Miss is the ONLYm in the country with SIX players having recorded 100-yard receiving games this season. Defense IS a problem though, with Ole Miss allowing 27.0 PPG (72nd) on 432.7 YPG (104th). Ole Miss has lost three straight to A&M but in the last meeting (2019 also in Oxford), the Rebels outgained the Aggies 405-337, with the difference being an A&M 62-yard TD on a fumble recovery. That 2019 Ole Miss team couldn't 'hold a candle' to the 2021 edition and as much as I don't much care for Kiffin, I think Ole Miss has an offense that will be able to 'crack' the A&M defense. Don't forget, Alabama put up 522 yards at College Station and this one is in Oxford (note: Ole Miss averages 524.1 PPG). Take the small home dog but we won't need the points! Good luck...Larry |
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11-13-21 | Syracuse v. Louisville -3 | Top | 3-41 | Win | 100 | 20 h 56 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Louisville at 12:00 ET. Syracuse head coach Dino Babers made a big 'splash' in his third season at Syracuse, going 10-3 with a bowl win in 2018. However, the 'Cuse fell to 5-7 in 2019 and then went 1-10 in 2020. A bowl berth may be a 'must' in 2021 for Babers to save his job. Syracuse comes in off a bye at 5-4 but more importantly the team is 8-1 ATS, including seven straight covers. Syracuse travels to Louisville this Saturday, where head coach Scott Satterfield's Cardinals are 4-5, after going 8-5 in his first season (2019) and 4-7 in his second season (2020). Satterfield became a 'hot' coaching commodity by leading Appalachian St St to 40 wins from 2015 through 2018. The Mountaineers won bowls under Satterfield in 2015, 2016 and 2017, before leaving to take the Louisville job before the school's 2018 bowl appearance. RB Sean Tucker is coming off his most productive game of the season (he ran for 207 yards in Syracuse's 21-6 home win over Boston College two weeks ag0) and will take the field looking for an eighth straight 100-yard game. He has 1,267 rushing yards (6.3 YPC / 13 TDs) and leads a running game that's averaging 248.8 YPG (3rd) on 5.6 YPC. Dual-threat QB Schrader adds 670 yards rushing (5.6 YPC / 11 TDs), while throwing for 1,119 yards with 7 TDs and 3 INTs. However, he's NOT an accurate passer, completing just 51.8%. Syracuse averages 29.4 PPG (56th) and its defense is holding opponents to 22.6 PPG (44th). Lining up opposite Schrader is Louisville QB Cunningham, who is the team's leading rusher (690 yards / 5.2 YPC / 15 TDs) and is a much better passer (60.5% / 2,077 yards / 9 TDs & 5 INTs). Joined by RB Mitchell (531 yards / 4.4 YPC / 4 TDs), Louisville also has an impressive running game, averaging 205.6 YPG (24th) on 5.0 YPC. Louisville scores in the neighborhood of Syracuse (28.8 PPG ranks 60th) but its defense is allowing 27.4 PPG, five points higher and also is allowing about 1000 YPG more. Louisville needs two more wins (in its last three games) to become bowl eligible. Winning here is pretty much a "must-win." Series history is ALL Louisville, as the Cardinals are 9-2 SU and have covered EIGHT of the last 10 meetings with the Orange. The home team has won four straight in the series, with the favorite covering the last seven (more trends in Louisville's favor). Louisville is just 3-2 at home but the two losses have come 34-33 to UVA, which scored a TD with 22 seconds left in the game and to Clemson, which Louisville led 24-17 into the 4th quarter, before the Tigers scored the game's final 13 points. Note that the Cards reached the Clemson two-yard-line but were SOD on that final drive. Lay the short price, as Syracuse's ATS winning streak ends at seven. Good luck...Larry |
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11-11-21 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh -6.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 32 h 49 m | Show |
My CFB 10* Thursday Game of the Month is on Pittsburgh at 7:30 ET. North Carolina opened No. 10 in the AP's preseason poll and was led by one of the Heisman favorites, QB Sam Howell. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh (coming off a 6-5 season) entered the current season unranked and was not even among the 19 schools that were in the groups known as "others receiving votes." The two teams take the field Thursday night at Heinz Field for a key game in the ACC's Coastal Division. Pittsburgh is 7-2 overall (21st in the CFP rankings) and at 4-1 in ACC play, controls its destiny in the division, while North Carolina (5-4, 3-3) has had a HUGELY disappointing season but can stay in contention with a victory. The Tar Heels are fresh off a 58-55 comeback victory against then-No. 9 Wake Forest (Demon Deacons were 8-0), a contest in which they put up 546 yards of total offense. Howell won't win the Heisman but he leads a VERY balanced offense (273.6 YPG passing / 219.4 YPG rushing) by completing 63.1% for 2,408 yards (20 TDs / 7 INTs), while rushing for 699 yards (5.2 YPC / 8 TDs). RB Chandler has 884 rushing yards (6.2 YPC / 13 TDs) and WR Downs has 74 catches (1,104 yards / 8 TDs). North Carolina is averaging 38.9 PPG (12th) but the defense is a mess, It allowed 615 yards against Wake and is allowing 33.4 PPG on the season (111th) on 421.4 YPG (95th). Howell had more fanfare coming into the season but Pitt QB Kenny Pickett is having a Heisman-like season. He's completing 68.7% for 3,171 yards with 29 TDs and 3 INTs. He's run for 234 yards (4 TDs) and three RBs chip in between 315-to-498 yards for a running game averaging 167.2 YPG. WR Addison (54 catches / 18.3 YPC / 11 TDs) is among the top WRs in the nation and Pittsburgh is tops in the nation in scoring (45.0 PPG) and second in total offense (543.3 YPG). Defensively, Pitt is solid, allowing 22.7 PPG (45th) on 345.0 YPG (37th). North Carolina has been consistently inconsistent from week to next this season and I expect that trend to continue here against Pittsburgh, which is 'smelling' the possibility of a memorable season. In contrast to NC's inconsistency, The Panthers have gone above the 50-point mark in four games this season, the most for any Pittsburgh team since 1905. What's more, 7-2 Pittsburgh is a PERFECT 7-0 ATS in its seven wins in 2021. Meanwhile, the only consistency North Carolina has shown since the start of the 2020 season is this. The Tar Heels take the field Thursday 3-8 ATS in their last 11 following a straight-up win. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry |
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11-10-21 | Ball State -2 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 58 m | Show |
My 9* MAC Attack-Part 2 is on Ball St at 7:00 ET. The Ball State Cardinals will travel to Huskie Stadium in DeKalb to take on the Northern Illinois Huskies on Wednesday night. The Cardinals improved to 5-4 on the season with a 31-25 win over the Akron Zips (11/2) and are now 3-2 in the MAC-West. The Northern Illinois Huskies had their 5-game winning streak snapped in a 52-47 loss at Kent St last Wednesday, dropping to 6-3 overall and 4-1 in the MAC-West. The Cardinals are coming off a 7-1 season in 2020. They lost their delayed season-opener but then won FIVE in a row to reach the MAC title games against Buffalo which had gone 5-0, while averaging 43.4 PPG. However, as a 13-point underdog, Ball St beat Buffalo 38-28 and then went on to beat a then-7-0 San Jose St team (also 7-0 ATS) 34-13 in the Arizona Bowl. Entering this season, 10 starters returned on both offense and defense and I read more than a few places that this year's team was shaping up as head coach Mike Neu's best (this marks his 6th season at Muncie). It didn't start that way, as Ball St opened 1-3 but the Cardinals have won FOUR of their last five. QB Plitt has completed 63.2% for 1,776 yards with 14 TDs and just four INTs. He has a trio of solid WRs in Hall (56 / 5 TDs), (Jackson 39 / 2 TDs) and Tyler (32 / 5 TDs) plus RB Steele does a nice job (582 yards on 5.2 YPC and 5 TDs). Ball St is averaging a modest 25.2 PPG (88th), while allowing 27.6 PPG (75th). More in a bit. Northern Illinois QB Rocky Lombardi is completing a modest 57.8% and has thrown for 1,853 yards with 12 TDs and six INTs. However, NIU's offense is led by a rushing attack that has averaged 221.4 YPG (10th) and features five players with more than 200 rushing yards (Lombard is in that group with 346 yards and has five TDs). RBs Ducker (579 yards / 5.4 YPC / 5 TDs) and Waylee (574 yards / 5.7 YPC / 4 TDs) are the top producers. NIU averages 31.7 PPG (42) with a nice run/pass balance but the team's defense is allowing 33.8 PPG (112th) on 449.3 YPG (114th). NIU has the better record (6-3 to 5-4) and leads 4-1 to 3-2 in the division, YET Ball St is the small road favorite. That's NO oddsmaker's error, as Balls St is 3-0 SU on the road in MAC play, averaging 38.0 PPG and gets to go up against a Huskie defense that just allowed 52 points on 682 yards the last time out. Yes, NIU had won 10 straight in this series but Ball St has won the last two and makes it THREE in a row here with an easy win and cover. Good luck...Larry |
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11-06-21 | San Diego State v. Hawaii +7.5 | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 36 h 60 m | Show |
My 9* CFB 'Late Show' is on Hawaii at 11:00 ET. The San Diego State Aztecs travel to 'paradise' for a Saturday game with Hawaii's Rainbow Warriors. SDSU opened the season 7-0, climbing imto the AP-25 rankings, with key wins over Utah (33-31), San Jose St (19-13 in 2 OTs) and Air Force (20-14). However, the Aztecs lost 30-20 last Saturday at home to Fresno St and fell out of the AP top-25. Maybe surprisingly, the Aztecs were ranked 24th in the first CFP ranking of the season (released this past Tuesday). Hawaii (4-5) has already played nine games and is hardly concerned with rankings but is just trying to get back to .500 with a win. Hawaii will play 13 games this season and bowl eligibility is a real possibility. The SDSU situation at QB is hardly a settled matter, although it looks like Johnson, who has started the last two games, has taken over from Brookshire. Neither have put up impressive numbers and it doesn't help that the SDSU receiving corps' leading receiver has only 17 catches. RB Bell has 66 yards on 4.8 YPC with 6 TDs and its running game 'drives' the offense, averaging 200.1 YPG (34th). The Aztecs are averaging 29.6 PPG, which is more than enough when the team's defense is holding opponents to 17.5 PPG (12th) on 305.1 YPG (also 12th). Hawaii QB Cordeiro is completing just 55.4% but has thrown for 1,706 yards with 10 TDs. Hawaii has nice balance, averaging 257.9 YPG passing and 157.7 YPG on the ground. The RB tandem of Hunter (558 yards / 7.2 YPC) and Parson (433 yards / 5.3 YPC / 6 TDs) is joined by all-purpose back Turner, who has 299 rushing yards (5.8 YPC and 7 TDs) plus is the team's leading receiver wit 52 catches (3 TDs). WR Mardner has 33 catches on 18.6 YPC with 3 TDs. The Hawaii defense is THE problem, allowing 33.9 PPG (114th) on 461.1 YPG (117th). Many fall into the trap of playing on a team that has opened with a winning streak of say six or seven games, coming off its first loss, assuming a bounce back. However, that is often NOT the case and I think the stage is set for a much tighter battle than what this spread is suggesting. This will be San Diego State’s THIRD road trip in four games and considering the opposite direction of travel, I believe there is a strong chance that the Aztecs could 'slip up' for a second straight game. Hawaii is 3-1 at home and note that in its three contests vs FBS opponents, the Hawaii defense is allowing 25.0 PPG, more than EIGHT points less than its season average. Grab those points! Good luck...Larry |
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11-06-21 | Tennessee +2.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 122 h 25 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on Tennessee at 7:00 ET. The Kentucky Wildcats opened 6-0 in 2021 for the first time since 1950 (Bear Bryant era) but their perfect season 'died' in Athens with a 30-13 loss at No. 1 Georgia. Losing the physical battle at No. 1 Georgia is one thing but doing so two weeks later at Mississippi State is another thing. The Wildcats lost 31-17 last Saturday in Starkville. Kentucky is aiming for a strong November that would put it in position for a good bowl berth. Head coach Mark Stoops didn't mince words when asked about last week's 31-17 loss at Mississippi State, "Played like crap," he said. "Not very many good things this past week for sure. Fell short in all areas. Not very pleased with our performance. Rough day at the office. They played harder than us, they were more physical." Josh Heupel replaced Scott Frost at UCF and wemt 28-8 over three seasons, as his offense averaged 43.2, 43.4 and 42.2 PPG in those individual seasons. This is his first season at Tennessee and the Vols opened 4-2 but then lost a close one at home to Ole Miss (31-26), before wearing down in the fourth quarter at Alabama, allowing the game's final 21 points in a 52-24 loss. The Vols had last weekend off and now travel to Lexington to take on longstanding rival Kentucky. QB Hooker is a true dual threat, completing 68.7% for 1,578 yards with 17 TDs and just 2 INTS. He adds 416 rushing yards (4.1 YPC) and 4 TDs. RB Evans has 516 yards on 6.4 YPC with 6 TDs, as the Vols are averaging 225.4 YPG (10th) on 5.0 YPC. WRs Jones (31 catches / 14.6 YPC / 4 TDs) and Tillman (30 catches / 14.9 / 4 TDs) are Hooker's best targets. The Vols are averaging a healthy 37.4 PPG (17th) but allow 26.5 PPG (71st). Kentucky QB Levis had a VERY poor game against Miss St (just 150 yards and three INTs) but has had a decent season (66.3% for 1,476 yards with 14 TDs and 9 INTs). RB Rodrigeuz has run for 809 yards (6.0 YPC / 5 TDs) and WR Robinson (58 catches / 11.1 YPC / 5 TDs) represent Kentucj\kty's key offensive performers. Kentucky averages PPG (27.0 PPG), 10 PPG less than Tennessee but its defense allows 20.8 PPG (34th) on 335.6 YPG (34th). Here's the history of this series. Kentucky won last year's meeting 34-7 in Knoxville, so the Wildcats are looking for their first back-to-back wins over the Volunteers since 1976-77. The Vols have won 31 of the last 34 games with the Wildcats and are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Knoxville. Kentucky loses its third straight, while Heupel's team gets a much-needed win. The Vols finish with three straight home games, beginning with Georgia. However, a win here and then over South Alabama and Vandy would give Heupel a seven-win season and a chance to win eight games by winning a bowl game. Good luck...Larry |
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11-06-21 | Michigan State v. Purdue +3 | Top | 29-40 | Win | 100 | 46 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* Big Ten Game of the Year is on Purdue at 3:30 ET. The "Mel Tucker Era" began in 2020 with the Spartans going 2-5. Michigan State entered the season as an afterthought, as the Spartans were picked to finish as low as last in the Big Ten East in some national publications. Jeff Brohm became a 'hot' coaching commodity by leading Western Ky to a 30-10 record in three seasons and then moved on to Purdue. The Boilermakers went 6-6 in each of his first two seasons, winning a bowl game the first season (7-6) and losing the following season (6-7). Purdue fell to 4-6 in 2019 and was 2-4 in "The Year of COVID" in 2020. However, as the Spartans and Boilermakers meet Saturday at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Michigan St comes in 8-0, including 5-0 in the Big Ten. The Spartans are currently ranked 5th in the AP, the first time Michigan St has been ranked in the top-5 since 2015 (Michigan St made its lone CFP appearance that season). Purdue enters 5-3 (3-2 in the Big Ten but reminded all of its 'Giant-Killer' reputation by beating then-No. 2 Iowa on the road back on Oct 10, ending the Hawkeyes' 12-game winning streak. Michigan State is fresh off a big matchup vs Michigan. In that one, the Spartans pulled off an epic four-point victory, 37-33. The term 'epic' is NOT an overstatement, as MSU trailed by 16 points (30-14) in the third quarter. Michigan St QB Thorne had a modest 196 yards passing plus two picks but freshman RB Kenneth Walker ran for 197 yards and a whopping FIVE touchdowns. Thorne has had a solid season, completing 61.5% for 1,897 yards (15 TDs and 6 INTs) but Walker is having a Heisman-caliber season. He leads the nation with 1,194 yards on 6.8 YPC with 14 TDs. Thorne has a trio of WRs, all averaging 15.0-plus YPC. The trio consists of Reed (33 / 19.5 YPC / 5 TDs), Nailor (31 / 18.9 YPC / 6 TDs) and Mosley (21 / 15.3 YPC / 0 TDs). A quick look at the Michigan St defense shows them allowing 20.5 PPG (30th) but also 424.4 YPG (103rd!). The question may be, can Purdue's offense take advantage of a MSU defense that has allowed a lot of yards? O'Connell has taken over at QB for Plummer (7 TDs / 0 INTs) and while he's completing 71.0%, he's thrown nine TDs and eight INTs. Purdue has no one within 'miles' of Walker, as Doerue leads with just 363 yards (3.9 YPC / one TD). Purdue is averaging 80.5 YPG (127th) on 2.5 YPC. However, Purdue can move the ball through the air with WR Bell (53 / 14.8 YPC / 4 TDs) being among the best WRs in the nation. TE Durham has 36 catches (4 TDs) plus WRs Wright and Anthony have combined for 60 catches and four TDs. For Purdue to pull the upset, its defense will have to be the reason. The Boilermakers are allowing 17.1 PPG (10th) on 315.6 YPG (18th). Michigan St is off its HUGE comeback win over hated-Michigan and now must take on the 'SPOILERMAKERS.' After beating No. 2 Iowa on Oct 10 as an unranked team, Purdue has now beaten a team ranked in the top-two of the AP Top 25 as an unranked team for the NINTH time in program history, more than TWICE as many as any other school. Naturally, I'll take the points but I'm sending out an Upset Alert! Good luck...Larry |
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11-06-21 | Auburn v. Texas A&M -3.5 | Top | 3-20 | Win | 100 | 78 h 1 m | Show |
My 9* Marquee Matchup is on Texas A&M at 3:30 ET. The first CFP rankings were released this past Tuesday, with 6-2 Auburn getting ranked No. 13 and 6-2 Texas A&M settling in right behind at No. 14. As fate would have it, the Tigers will be in College Station this Saturday to take on the Aggies, a contest which is essentially an elimination game in the SEC West. Auburn (6-2, 3-1 SEC) trails Alabama (7-1, 4-1) for the division lead, with Texas A&M (6-2, 3-2), Ole Miss (6-2, 3-2) and Mississippi State (5-3, 3-2) all fighting to stay in the race as well. However, only Auburn and Alabama control their destinies to earn a spot in the SEC title game on Dec 4. If Auburn and Alabama win the rest of their league games heading into their meeting on the final day of the regular season on Nov 27, the winner of the Iron Bowl would head to Atlanta to play top-ranked and East Division champ Georgia. That said, this is definitely a "marquee matchup," as the Tigers and Aggies have both turned their seasons around after coming close to taking major steps backward this season. Texas A&M was ranked 7th in the nation when it lost 20-10 to Arkansas on Sep 25 and 15th when it lost its next game, 26-22 at Miss St. The Aggies fell out of the rankings but turned their season around with a 41-38 upset of then-No. 1 Alabama on Oct 9. A 35-14 win at Missouri and a 44-14 win over South Carolina have followed and as noted above, the Aggies are now No. 14 in the 1st CFP rankings. QB Calzada (just 55.3% for 1,364 yards with 12 TDs and seven INTs) is no star but like Nix, he is backed by a strong running game. Spiller (761 yards / 6.2 YPC / 5 TDs) and Achane (608 yards / 7.1 YPC / 5 TDs) lead a running attack that averages 188.3 YPG. A&M has no superstars among its receiving corps but WR Smith has 31 catches for six TDs and TE Wydermyer has 25 catches, averaging 14.1 YPC with four TDs. A&M's defense is actually better than Auburn's allowing 16.1 PPG (5th). A&M felt it was 'robbed' of that 4th CFP berth last season but knows a 'Final 4' appearance is NOT in the cards here in 2021, after two losses. However, A&M can still cap an impressive season if it keeps winning, not to mention spoil Auburn's shot at entering the Iron Bowl with a chance at the SEC West title (see above). A&M has played the tougher sked (#26 vs #53) and while Auburn is on a 10-18 run as a road underdog, A&M is 15-7 ATS at home since 2018, including 4-0 here in 2021. Auburn caught a 'tired' Ole Miss team last Saturday but that will NOT be the case here, as A&M is off a bye. A&M wins comfortably, by double digits! Good luck...Larry |
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11-06-21 | Army v. Air Force -2.5 | Top | 21-14 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 28 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Air Force at 11:30 am ET. Army, under head coach Jeff Monken, has been 'bowling' in FOUR of the last five seasons (won 10 games in 2017, 11 in 2018 and went 9-3 in last year's pandemic-shortened season, after losing 24-21 to West Va in the Liberty Bowl (covered at plus-7). The Black Knights opened 4-0 in 2021 but if one looked more closely, the teams Army beat had a combined 3-13 (.188) SU record. However, Army has lost three straight since its perfect start, most recently to Wake Forest in a 70-56 final. Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun is in his 15th season since following the legendary Fisher DeBerry (23 years). He led Air Force to 10 bowl games in his first 13 seasons, before the team went 2-2 in 2020's COVID-shortened season. The Falcons opened the 2021 season 6-1 (lone loss was 49-45 at Utah St), before losing 20-14 to a then-unbeaten SD State team. The two service academies meet Saturday at "Jerry's House" in Arlington, with kickoff scheduled 30 minutes before high noon ET. Both teams own dominant running games, as Army rushes for 312.3 YPG (3rd) on 4.9 YPC, while Air Forces average 318.4 YPG (1st) on YPC. Neither team is effective throwing the ball and basically, passes are not a real part of either team's playbook. The big difference between the two teams is on the defensive side of the ball, as Army is allowing 27.7 PPG (80th), while Air Force is holding opponents to just 16.8 PPG (7th). Even more impressively, Air Force ranks THIRD nationally in allowing just 281.6 YPG. Air Force was 10-1 SU and 8-2-1 ATS from 2006-16 but Army has won THREE of the last four meetings (also 3-1 ATS) but I won't ignore the fact that Air Force is a MONEY-MAKING 23-8 ATS over its last 31 non-conference games. The winner here claims the Commander-in-Chief's trophy and my bet says that Air Force takes it. Lay the short price. Good luck...Larry |
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11-05-21 | Virginia Tech v. Boston College +3.5 | Top | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 82 h 55 m | Show |
My 9* Friday Night Lights Play is on Boston College 7:30 ET. A pair of 4-4 teams square off Friday night when the Virginia Tech Hokies and Boston College Eagles meet Friday at Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill. Both have arrived at 4-4 taking different paths. Va Tech opened its season with a 17-10 upset of preseason No. 10 North Craolina and sat 3-1 before losing THREE in a row to Notre Dame, Pittsburgh and Syracuse, ALL at home. Va Tech ended its three-game slide with a 26-17 road win at Ga Tech. Boston College, in Jeff Hafley's second season (6-5 in his first), opened 4-0 but has since lost ALL four of its ACC games to fall to .500. The slide began with a near-upset of Clemson but the last three wins have come by scores of 33-7 (NC St), 28-14 (Louisville) and 21-6 (Syracuse). |
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11-03-21 | Northern Illinois v. Kent State -3.5 | Top | 47-52 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
My 9* MAC Attack is on Kent St at 7:00 ET. MACtion began Tuesday night with three games and continues tonight with two more, as the Northern Illinois Huskies take on the Kent State Golden Flashes from Dix Stadium in Kent, Ohio. NIU is led by third-year head coach Thomas Hammock, who went 5-7 in his first season and then 0-6 in the COVID-shortened 2002 season. However, NIU had nine starters back on offense and 10 on defense and the Huskies enter this contest on a five-game winning streak that has them at 6-2 overall, including 4-0 in the MAC-West. Kent's Sean Lewis is just 34 (youngest head coach at the FBS level) and after going 2-10 in his first season, led Kent to a Frisco Bowl win in 2019, as the team finished 7-6. Kent played just four games in 2020 (1-3) but while the Golden Flashes are just 4-4 in 2021, they are 3-1 and atop the MAC-East. This could be a MAC title game preview.
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10-30-21 | North Carolina +4 v. Notre Dame | Top | 34-44 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* 'Signature' LEGEND Play is on North Carolina at 7:30 ET. North Carolina went 8-4 last season and despite losing some key offensive performers (more later), the Tar Heels returned Heisman-hopeful QB Sam Howll and 10 defensive starters. North Carolina opened No. 10 in the AP's preseason poll, the school's highest preseason ranking since being ranked No. 7 at the start of the 1997 season (in Mack Browns' first tenure at Chapel Hill). However, the Tar Heels 'limp' into South Bend unranked with a HUGELY disappointing 4-3. Notre fDame opened 10-0 last season before losing 34-10 to Clemson in the ACC championship. The Irish still made CFB's 'Final 4,' but lost 31-14 to Alabama in a contest in which the final score hardly reflected Alabama's domination of Notre Dame. Brian Kelly's team entered the current season with just three returning starters on offense and six on defense but was ranked No. 9 in the preseason (name recognition helps, huh?) The Irish have struggled at times this season (more below) but are currently 6-1 and hold down the No. 11 spot in the AP's latest poll.
Notre Dame is off a solid 31-16 win over USC last Saturday but the Irish have lost to their toughest opponent (24-13 at home to now-No. 2 Cincinnati) plus have won THREE games by just three points, over FSU in OT, Toledo and Va Tech. The team's 41-13 win at Wisconsin looks great on paper but Notre Dame actually trailed 13-10 in the fourth quarter of that contest. QB Jack Coan (Wisconsin transfer) has been OK but surely nothing special. He's completing 63.5% for 1,397 yards with 11 TDs and four INTs plus gets very little help from a running game that averages 106.7 YPG (117th!), after averaging 211 YPG on the ground last season. TE Mayer leads the team with 37 catches with WRs Austin and Davis hauling in just 22 and 20, respectively. The defense is allowing 23.1 PPG (not bad) but also not up to the standards of the previous three seasons (19.7, 17.9 and 18.2 PPG). Here's the rub. This game is really a 'must-win" for North Carolina. The Tar Heels host 7-0 Wake Forest (No. 13) for a Homecoming game next Saturday and then play at 6-1 Pitt (No. 17) the following weekend. Those games won't mean much if the Tar Heels fall to 4-4 here. Not many teams have gone into South Bend and come away with a win in recent years (Bearcats are the exception) but this Howell-led offense is MORE than capable of outscoring the Coan-led offense, which gets NOTHING from its running game. Upset Alert! Good luck...Larry |
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10-30-21 | Kentucky v. Mississippi State | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 37 h 44 m | Show |
My 9* SEC Game of the Week is on Miss St at 7:00 ET. The Kentucky Wildcats (6-1, 4-1 SEC) opened 6-0 in 2021 for the first time since 1950 (Bear Bryany era) but their perfect season 'died' in Athens with a 30-13 loss at No. 1 Georgia. The Wildcats got last weekend off (probably a good thing) and Saturday night travel to Starkville to take on the Mississippi St Bulldogs (4-3, 2-2). |
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10-30-21 | Iowa v. Wisconsin -3 | Top | 7-27 | Win | 100 | 96 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Wisconsin (12:00 ET). Iowa's Kirk Ferentz arrived in Iowa City way back in 1999 and after going 1-10 and 3-9 in his first two seasons, has been a steady, consistent winner. The Hawkeyes opened 2020 with back-to-back losses (by four points and one point) but then won SIX in a row, going 5-1 ATS with an average MOV of 21.8 PPG. Iowa earned an 18th bowl bid under Ferentz in 2020 but the Music City Bowl was canceled due to COVID. Iowa opened the season No. 18 in the AP's preseason poll and ripped off SIX straight wins, three over ranked teams. Iowa was the nation's No. 2 ranked team when it saw its 12-game winning (10-2 ATS) streak end with a 24-7 at Purdue on Oct 16. The 6-1 Hawkeyes had a welcome bye last Saturday and visit Camp Randall on Saturday to face 4-3 Wisconsin. Wisconsin opened the season ranked No. 12 in the AP's preseason poll but by the end of September, the Badgers had already lost TWICE and fallen out of the top-25. The Badgers lost 38-17 at home to Michigan to open October to fall to 1-3. Head coach Paul Chryst is in his seventh year at Madison and entered the season 56-19 with six bowl appearances (5-1) but the 2021 season was on the verge of slipping away. However, the Badgers have rebounded to win THREE in a row, including last Saturday's impressive 30-13 road win over then-No. 25 Purdue (fresh off its win over Iowa). Iowa relies on an outstanding defense, which is allowing 14.6 PPG (3rd) on 301.1 YPG 12th), while forcing a nation-best 16 takeaways. Those takeaways have helped a poor Iowa offense to average 28.0 PPG. Iowa is averaging only 311.1 YPG (120th), including 116.9 YPG (103rd) on the ground. QB Spencer Petras completes just 59.5% for 1,333 yards with nine TDs and six INTs. RB Godson is solid (586 yards on 4.3 YPC / 5 TDs) but as a team, the Hawkeyes average a woeful 3.1 YPC. TE LaPorta is the only player with more than 20 catches, with 28 receptions and two TDs. Wisconsin QB Mertz is having a terrible season, completing 55.9% for 945 yards with two INTs and seven INTs. However, during the team's three-game winning streak, he's avoided missteps, throwing just one INT in 42 attempts. He's stepped out of the way and Wisconsin's two outstanding RBs (Mellusi and Allen) take over. Wisconsin has run for 879 yards in its three wins (293.0 YPG), with Allen topping 100 yards in all three and Mellusi in two of the three. On the season, Mellusi has 692 yards on 6.2 YPC with 4 TDs and Allen 428 yards on 7.4 YPC with 5 TDs. The Wisconsin D has been strong all season but in its three wins, has allowed only 27 total points. Wisconsin rush D ranks 1st in the nation, allowing only 53.3 YPG. Sure, after a bye week and a loss to Purdue, Iowa will be primed for a bounce back but Camp Randall is the WRONG place at the WRONG time for that to happen. Running the ball against Wisconsin seems like too big of a hill to climb and Petras is NOT the type of QB to win it with his arm. The 'savior' for Iowa would be for its defense to force Wisconsin into mistakes (TOs) but Wisconsin has not fallen prey to that these last three weeks. Wisconsin has won SEVEN of its last nine vs Iowa and it's Homecoming at Camp Randall. A Wisconsin win and the Badgers will be 3-2, tied with Iowa in the Big Ten West, plus will own the tiebreaker. That's the bet. Good luck...Larry |
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10-23-21 | USC +7 v. Notre Dame | Top | 16-31 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* CFB Game of the Month is on USC at 7:30 ET. USC/Notre Dame is the greatest intersectional rivalry in CFB history. The schools had met in every season since World War II before this long standing rivalry took a one-season break due to the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. "It's baaack!" in 2021, as No. 13 Notre Dame (5-1) hosts an underachieving USC team that opened 15th in the AP's preseason poll but is currently unranked with a 3-3 record. Notre Dame leads the all-time series 47-36-5, as after after winning SEVEN straight in the series, the Trojans have lost SEVEN of the last 10, including four straight in South Bend. |
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10-23-21 | BYU -4 v. Washington State | Top | 21-19 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 42 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on BYU at 3:30 ET. BYU surprised all by going 11-1 (9-3 ATS) in 2020 (finished 11th in the final coaches' poll) and opened 5-0 in 2021, including notable wins 26-17 over then-No. 21 Utah (ending a 9-game losing streak in "The Holy War") and 27-17 over then-No. 21 Arizona St. However, the Cougars come to Pullman off back-to-back losses, 26-17 at home to Boise St and 38-24 at Baylor. Washington St played just four games in 2020's COVID season, winning its opener and then going 0-3 SU and ATS, while allowing 42.0 PPG. It was Nick Rolovich's first season at Washington St, after he led his alma mater (Hawaii) to a 28-27 record in four years but with three Hawaii Bowl berths (2-1). Rolovich is a former QB, well-liked and the Cougars expected him to revive the program. Wash St opened just 1-3 but then beat Cal (21-16), Oregon St (31-24) and Stanford (34-31) to reach 4-3 (is on a 4-0 ATS streak0. However, as all have to know by now, he was dismissed from his head coaching position, along with four assistants (more later). Washington St QB deLaura has completed 62.6% for 1,476 yards with 15 TDs and 5 INTs. He also has some 'sweet' WRs in Harris (44 catches / 5 TDs), Jackson (37 catches / 4 TDs) and Stribling (24 catches / 4 TDs). However, the Washington St running game averages just 111.7 YPG (114th) on 3.7 YPC with the lone notable contributor being Borghi (421 yards on 5.1 YPC / 5 TDs). The Cougars are scoring 25.7 PPG and allowing 25.7 PPG. |
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10-23-21 | Kansas State +1 v. Texas Tech | Top | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 69 h 15 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Kansas St at 12:00 ET. Chris Kleiman led Kansas St to an 8-5 season in his first year at Kansas St but fell to 4-6 last year. Kansas St opened the 2021 season 3-0, including solid wins over Stanford 24-7 at a neutral site) and 38-17 at Nevada. However, the Wildcats have opened Big 12 play 0-3, allowing 101 points (33.7 PPG) , in losing to Oklahoma St, Oklahoma and Iowa St. Texas Tech began with a 38-21 over Houston (neutral site) and was 3-0 when it got pounded 70-35 by Texas. The Red Raiders rebounded with a 23-20 win at West Va but then lost 52-31 at home to TCU, before beating Big 12 'punching bag' Kansas, 41-14. Head coach Matt Wells is in his third season in Lubbock, after leading Utah St to bowls in five of his six seasons. The Red Raiders have gone 4-8 and 4-6 in his first two seasons but this year's team is 5-2. Wildcats QB Skylar Thompson is 44 of 64 for 526 yards with five touchdowns and one interception in two games since returning from a knee injury. For him to be effective, he needs balance and the running has shown promise (162.5 YPG ranks 69th), with RB Deuce Vaughn rushing for 543 rushing yards on 5.0 YPC and 5 TDs (he's also the team's leading receiver with 23 catches, adding two more TDs). The defense is allowing 24.7 PPG (60th) on 355.2 YPG (52nd), despite struggling against big 12 opponents. The Red Raiders average 168.6 YPG on the ground (63rd) with Thompson (314 yards on 5.0 YPC and 6 TDs) plus Brooks (284 yards on 8.1 YPC with 4 TDs). QB Tyler Shough averaged 218 passing yards per game before breaking his collarbone in the Sept 25 loss to Texas but backup Henry Colombi has stepped right in, averaging 264.5 YPG over the past four games. The Texas Tech defense is allowing 31.4 PPG (102nd) on 386.4 YPG (75th). Kansas St is on a three-game slide but note Oklahoma St and Oklahoma are both unbeaten, while Iowa St was ranked No. 7 in the preseason (pretty tough three-game stretch). For one, Texas Tech head coach Matt Wells is not buying the fact that Kansas State is struggling. "K-State has beat us (five) years in a row," Wells said. "They're tough; they're physical. I have a lot of respect for Chris Kleiman. I think Skylar Thompson is gritty and tough. He has a lot of moxie. Deuce Vaughn is one of the best in the country, and they've got some guys in the special teams that keep you up at night." Great situation for Kansas St to get back in the win column after a rough three-game stretch. Kansas St has gone 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS against Texas Tech since 2011. What changes here? Nothing. Good luck...Larry |
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10-22-21 | Memphis v. Central Florida -1.5 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 82 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* AAC Game of the Year is on UCF at 7:00 ET. Ryan Silverfield was hired by Mike Norvell as an assistant at Memphis to begin the 2016 season. He was elevated to assistant head coach in 2019, and was named interim head coach when Norvell left to take the head coach position at Florida State. he promoted to head coach on December 13 and debuted in his first college game as head coach against Penn State in the 2019 Cotton Bowl Classic (lost 53-39). He led the Tigers to an 8-3 season in 2020 (first as a head coach), including a 25-10 win over FAU in the Montgomery Bowl, which marked Memphis' 7th straight bowl appearance. Gus Malzahn's team has been bombarded with injuries in the early going but this guy is a quality coach and I don't expect last week's 56-21 loss at now-No. 2 Cincinnati to keep this team down. QB Dillon Gabriel is sidelined by an injury and is missed but freshman Mikey Keene is capable. RBs Richardson (317 yards / 6.1 YPC / one TD) and Bowser (295 yards / 4.6 YPC / 6 TDs) lead a strong running game averaging 204.2 YPG (129th). Like Memphis, the UCF defense leaves much to be desired, allowing 32.2 PPG (107th0. I'm a fan of Malzahn. During his eight seasons at Auburn, he was 68-35, including THREE wins over Alabama plus made a trip to the 2013 national championship game where the Tigers lost 34-31 to FSU when the Seminoles scored with 13 seconds Neither team is going to beat you with its defense, but the Tigers' inconsistencies from one week to the next makes them untrustworthy here. What does matter is, series history and the home field advantage. UCF had won 13 straight over Memphis before losing 50-49 at Memphis in 2020. Methinks, UCF remembers. UCF was 21-0 SU at home from 2017-19, before going just 2-2 last season. Throw in UCF's 3-0 home record in 2021 and that's 26-2 SU at home since the start of the 2017 season. At this price, UCF is a HUGE play! |
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10-16-21 | UCLA v. Washington -1.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 54 m | Show |
My 9* Pac 12 Game of the Week is on Washington at 8:30 ET. Chip Kelly was a coaching 'genius' at Oregon from 2009-12, going 46-7 and finishing 3, 4 and 2 in the AP's final poll his last three seasons. He then moved on to conquer the NFL but in three seasons with the Eagles and one with the 49ers, went 28-35 (move over Bill Belichick). He was then hired at UCLA and went 3-9, 4-8 and 3-4 from 2018-20. UCLA opened with a 44-10 win over Hawaii and kept the momentum rolling in Week 2 with a 38-27 victory over then-No. 16 LSU. The Bruins then took a step back in a 40-37 loss to Fresno State, before beating Stanford 34-24 on road. UCLA then lost to Arizona State 42-23, before last week's 34-16 win over Arizona. |
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10-16-21 | Colorado State v. New Mexico +11 | Top | 36-7 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* MWC "Best of the Best" is on New Mexico at 7:00 ET. Steve Addazio is in his second season at Fort Collins, after leading Boston College to six bowls in seven seasons. The problem. BC never won more than SEVEN games in any season! CSU played just four games last year (1-3) and began the 2021 season with two home losses (42-23 to South Dakota State and then 24-21 to Vanderbilt), before winning 22-6 at Toledo. CSU led No. 5 Iowa 14-7 at the half back on Sep 25 but scored zero points in the second half for a 24-14. Was that a 'good' loss? Maybe but the Rams had just 12 FDs and 250 yards. CSU doesn't need good losses, it needs wins. The Rams did take care of San Jose St rather easily 32-14, and will head to Albuquerque at 2-3 Saturday to take on the 2-4 Lobos. However, the days of Sonny Lubick, who led them to nine bowls in a 15-year span (from 1993-2007) seem like 50 years ago, not half that! |
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10-16-21 | Pittsburgh v. Virginia Tech +5 | Top | 28-7 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 24 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Va Tech at 3:30 ET. 4-1 Pittsburgh will visit Blacksburg to take on 3-2 Va Tech on Saturday. The Coastal Division's representative in the Atlantic Coast Conference title game may come closer to being decided based on the outcome of this game. The Panthers and Hokies each enter with a 1-0 conference record and with FOUR of the other five teams in the division having at least two losses (the only one that doesn't is 0-1 Miami), the winner of Saturday's game will have the inside track toward an appearance in the conference title game. |
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10-16-21 | Michigan State v. Indiana +5 | Top | 20-15 | Push | 0 | 76 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Indiana at 12:00 ET. The "Mel Tucker Era" began in 2020 with the Spartans going 2-5. Michigan State entered the season as an afterthought but after a 6-0 start, the Spartans are now one of FIVE Big Ten teams in the AP's top-10. Michigan St checks in at No. 10 but the question for some (me?) is, are the Spartans really a top-10 team? Michigan State has been one of the biggest surprises in the Big Ten season, as the Spartans were picked to finish as low as last in the Big Ten East in some national publications. Meanwhile, the Indiana Hoosiers are one of the Big Ten's most disappointing teams. Tom Allen made a HUGE difference to the football program, as after back-to-back 5-7 (2-7 in Big Ten play) seasons in 2007 and 2018, he led the Hoosiers to back-to-back bowl games. Indiana went 8-5 in 2019 and 6-2 in 2020's pandemic-shortened season. The Hoosiers were 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in Big Ten play but then lost to a 4-5 Ole Miss team 26-20 (as a 9 1/2-point favorite) in the Outback Bowl. Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr was back healthy for the opening of the 2021 season, after missing the Hoosiers' last two games of 2020 because of a torn ACL in his right knee. He had 14 TDPs and just four INTs last season and let me point out that Indiana is 10-2 the last two seasons when Penix starts at QB and 4-5 when other QBs start. However, Indiana is just 2-3, including 0-2 in Big Ten in which the Hoosiers have yet to score a TD.
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10-16-21 | Rutgers v. Northwestern +2.5 | Top | 7-21 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on Northwestern at 12:00 ET. Rutgers and Northwestern have each failed to win a Big Ten game in 2021, as Rutgers visits Evanston for a game with Northwestern. Rutgers (3-3, 0-3 Big 10) currently sits at the bottom of the Big Ten East, while Northwestern (2-3, 0-2) is last in the West Division. Rutgers opened with three non-conference wins but has then been outscored 103-39 in losses to now-No. 10 Michigan State, No. 6 Ohio State and No. 8 Michigan. Northwestern has won two of three non-conference games but was crushed in its season opener 38-21 at home by Michigan St and then on Oct 2, suffered a 56-7 loss at Nebraska (second-largest margin of defeat under coach Pat Fitzgerald). Northwestern has been outscored 94-28 in its two conference games. To add insult to injury last week vs Michigan St, leading receiver Bo Melton (24 catches / 2 TDs) did not play due to a shoulder injury, and Aron Cruickshank, whose 244 receiving yards are second on the team, exited in the second half with a shoulder injury. QB Vedral has completed 63.9% for 1,122 yards with six TDs and three INTs. He's also the team's second-leading rusher, with RB Pacheco checking in with 314 yards but a YPC average of only 3.8. Rutgers runs for 141.8YPG (85th) on 3.5 YPC. The defense is allowing 22.8 PPG (51) which is pretty good considering Rutgers has played THREE teams currently in the AP's top-10. Northwestern allowed 427 rushing yards and 28 first downs at Nebraska, so the defense will be glad to see a mediocre Rutgers rushing attack. QB Hunter Johnson has 424 passing yards, four touchdowns, and four interceptions, but has been replaced by Ryan Hlinski. He made a decent jump in his second start, as the South Carolina transfer completed 25 of 39 passes against Nebraska for 256 yards and his first touchdown this season. Hilinski had 88 yards in the win over Ohio the previous week. Northwestern's best offensive player of Evan Hull, who has run for 509 yards on 7.3 yPC with four TDs. Fitzgerald's teams have always been known for playing excellent defense but the 2021 team allows 27.2 PPG (80th) on 451.6 PPG (113th). Since joining the Big Ten in 2014, Rutgers has played in every stadium in the conference, except one. That ends Saturday when the Scarlet Knights visit Ryan Field. However, I believe Northwestern has some edges in this game, one being having had last weekend off after getting humbled in Lincoln. Northwestern was 4-0 SU at home last season and is 2-1 here in 2021 plus Fitzgerald is going to see some old friends (and get some much-needed support) when Northwestern honors the 1995 and 1996 Big Ten championship teams. The Wildcats' coach was a star linebacker back then. The 1995 team went on a fairytale run to the Rose Bowl and ended a string of 23 losing seasons. Any points are a bonus. Good luck...Larry |
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10-15-21 | San Diego State v. San Jose State +9.5 | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 78 h 10 m | Show |
My 9* Friday Night Lights play is on San Jose St at 10:30 ET. Brady Hoke coached SD State in 2009 and 2010, leading the Aztecs to a 9-4 season in 2010, including a Poinsettia Bowl win over Navy. He left for Michigan but after an 11-2 season in 2011, things fell apart quickly. He was fired after four seasons, going 6-10 in the Big Ten his last two seasons. He would wind up back at SD State as an assistant under Rocky Long and took over for Long when he retired after the 2019 season. Hoke's first season back was 2020's COVID season and the Aztecs went just 4-4, ending a run of 10 straight bowl appearances that had started with Hoke's 2010 team. SD State was expected to contend for the MWC title in 2021 but the team's 5-0 start (entered top-25 two weeks ag0) is somewhat of a surprise. The Aztecs will play on the road the next two weeks, at San Jose St this Friday and at Air Force on Oct 23. San Jose St shocked almost all by going 7-0 SU and ATS to win the MWC in 2020, beating Boise St in the championship game, 34-20 (as a 7-point underdog). However, the Spartans then lost (as a 9-point favorite) 34-13 to Ball St in the Arizona Bowl. Still, with 19 returning starters, Brent Brennan's team entered the current season with high expectations. SJSU opened the season with a 45-14 win over Southern Utah, but then fell 30-7 to USC in Week 2. The Spartans bounced back with a 17-13 victory over Hawaii, before falling 23-3 to Western Michigan. A 37-31 win over New Mexico State followed but last Saturday, the Spartans fell behind early at Colorado St and was never really in the game in a 32-14 loss. SD St is led offensively by a running game that averages 241.4 YPG (13th) on 5.3 YPC. Greg Bell has 520 yards rushing (5.5 YPC and five TDs). Both Brookshire (47.4% with 2 TDs and 1 INT) and Johnson (53.7% with 2 TDs and 1 INT) have played at QB. Neither has been effective, as SD St averages 128.8 YPG passing to rank 125th in the nation. The team's leading receiver (Bellinger) has seven catches, although he is averaging 23.3 YPC. Running the ball and a stout defense has been the key for SD State, with the Aztecs allowing 16.6 PPG (16th) on 270.4 YPG (6th). Spartans QB Starkel played very well in 2020 (17 TDs / 7 INTs) but has flopped in 2021 (50.4% with 6 TDs and 5 INTs). Sophomore Nick Nash replaced him against New Mexico St and helped lead the Spartans to the win, completing 15 of 18 for 193 yards with three TDs (0 INTs). He was just 11 of 22 for 154 yards vs CSU but did have two TD passes (one INT). He looks like the best choice now. RB Tyler Nevens ran for 515 yards on 7.8 YPC in eight games last season and has 406 on 5.5 YPC after six games in 2020. The San Jose St defense is allowing 23.8 PPG on 369.5 PPG (rank 63rd in each category). I believe that SD St is getting a little too much credit here and as noted above, has a 'testing' two-game stretch in which the Aztecs will have to be cautious to not get caught "looking ahead" to their game at Air Force next weekend (5-1 as of this writing). Sure SD State is the better defensive team but I will note that the Spartans did force CSU into settling for SIX field goals last weekend. This is just SD State's SECOND road game this season, winning 38-14 at Arizona. FYI...The Wildcats are 0-5 in 2021 and are currently on a 17-game losing streak! Maybe not a SU win but the TD or more in points sure looks 'juicy!' Good luck...Larry |
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10-09-21 | Utah +3 v. USC | Top | 42-26 | Win | 100 | 52 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* Pac-12 Game of the Year is on Utah at 8:00 ET. A pair of teams with disappointing starts to their respective 2021 seasons square off in the LA Coliseum on Saturday night, as the 2-2 Utah Utes visit the 3-2 USC Trojans. Utah was ranked 24th in the AP's preseason poll and USC was ranked 15th. However, Utah has lost to both of the quality teams it has played in the early going, falling 26-17 at BYU (snapped a nine-game winning streak over its longtime rival) and 33-31 in OT at San Diego St. Yes, BYU is ranked 10th and SD State just moved into the rankings at No. 25 this past Sunday but there is NO overlooking that the Utes check in at 0-4 ATS. USC comes in 3-2 after last weekend's 37-14 victory at Colorado as a 9.5 point favorite. However, the Trojans have surely had their ups and downs in 2021. They lost 42-28 at home vs Stanford as an 18-point favorite, a loss that cost Clay Helton his job. Taking over is Donte Williams (first-ever head coaching job) and he lost his second game, 45-27 against Oregon St, again at home and again as a sizeable favorite of 10 points. Something tells me Williams will be 'looking over his shoulder' all season, as rumors abound that USC is looking for a "big name" head coach. Can you say Urban Meyer. Utah had hoped for big things from Charlie Brewer, who came from Baylor where he had 65 TDs and 28 INTs. However, he was benched during the SD St loss, with Cameron Rising going 19 of 32 for 153 yards with three TDs and no INTs. Rising started in the 24-13 win over Washington St but was just a modest 13 of 23 for 137 yards. However, he didn't throw a TD pass and he's thrown 55 passes without an INT the last two games. He's the better choice these days and the Utah defense is solid, allowing 302.3 YPG (25th) and 22.3 PPG. Utah's defensive strength is its pass D, allowing 163.5 YPG to rank 13th. USC is no longer called "Tailback U," as the Trojans are now a passing team. That's the case again in 2021 with Kedon Slovis completing 64.6% for 1,118 yards but he has a modest seven TD passes with four INTs. WR London leads the nation with 48 catches, grabbing four TDs. RB Ingram is solid (359 yards on 5.8 YPC) but the team's average of 137.4 YPG on the ground ranks only 91st. The USC defense allows 24.4 PPG (70th) on 361.4 YPG (61st). Utah is in a very good spot here, having last week off and despite its 2-2 start, is 1-0 in Pac 12 play. USC has lost its last two home games (SU as big double-digit favorites), while allowing a combined 87 points! USC is off next weekend and then plays Notre Dame in one of the nation's biggest (if not THE biggest) intersectional rivalries. Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham has led Utah to 13 bowls in 15 years (10-3), before the school declined to play in a bowl last year (COVID). He squares off against a VERY inexperienced head coach plus brings a 12-2 ATS record as a road dog into this contest going back to 2014. Meanwhile, USC comes in 8-14 as a home favorite since 2017. I'm calling for the SU win but of course, take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-09-21 | LSU +3.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 13 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on LSU at 7:30 ET. Joe Burrow elevated Ed Orgeron to the status coaching 'genius' in 2019, leading LSU to one of CFB's best-ever single seasons. The 2019 Tigers would go 15-0 (11-4 ATS), outscoring opponents 48.4 PPG-to-21.9 PPG. However, LSU fell to 5-5 in COVID's 2020 season, while averaging 32.0 PPG and allowing 34.9 PPG. LSU opened the current season with a 38-27 loss at UCLA, before winning home games over McNeese ST (34-7) and Central Michigan (49-21). LSU picked up an impressive 28-25 win at Miss St on the final Saturday of September (lead 28-10 in the mid-4th quarter) but then blew a 13-point lead at home in a 24-19 loss to Auburn this past Saturday. The Tigers are now on the road this Saturday at Kentucky. How 'bout dem Wildcats! Kentucky held off then-No. 10 Florida last Saturday, winning 20-13 at home. It marked Kentucky's first home win over the Gators since 1986 and catapulted the Wildcats into the AP top-25 for the first time this year at No. 16. Kentucky has started 5-0 for just the third time in its last 35 years, with two of those perfect starts coming under head coach Mark Stoops. Stoops led Kentucky to a 5-0 start in 2018 and the Wildcats finished 10-3, including a 27-24 Citrus Bowl win over No. 13 Penn St. QB Max Johnson has thrown for 1,469 yards (62.45 completions / 16 TDs and 4 INTs) but gets almost NO help from an LS+U running game producing a pathetic 70.8 YPG (128th) on 2.4 YPC. Johnson has one of the nation's best WRs in Boutte, who has 30 receptions and an FBS-high nine TD grabs! The LSU defense is about average, allowing 23.0 PPG (59th) on 369.6 YPG (67th). However, it's quite an improvement over last year's unit which allowed 34.9 PPG on 492.0 YPG! Kentucky QB Will Levis completes 61.2% for 989 yards with eight TDs but also six INTs. The running game ranks 36th, averaging 191.0 YPG, led by Rodriguez (612 yards on 5.9 YPC with 4 TDs). However, it's the Kentucky defense that leads the way, allowing 16.8 PPG (21st) on 284.6 YPG (12th). That Wildcat D came up HUGE last Saturday, as Florida had 1st and goal opportunities two times and failed to tie it up EIGHT in eight tries! Here's the 'dope.' The Kentucky offense left MUCH to be desired vs Florida, converting just one of nine third downs, gaining just 224 yards, as Levis completed just seven passes in 17 attempts for 87 yards. At 3-2, this is a HUGE game for LSU. These two haven’t met since 2014 and LSU has won SIX of the last seven meetings. LSU is 10-3 SU & ATS vs the SEC East while Kentucky is just 1-9 SU against SEC West foes, excluding Miss St (annual Egg Bowl opponent). Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-09-21 | TCU -1.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 52-31 | Win | 100 | 76 h 49 m | Show |
My 9* Big 12 Game of the Week is on TCU at 7:00 ET. 2-2 TCU takes on 4-1 Texas Tech Saturday in Lubbock. TCU head coach Garry Patterson is in his 21st season with the Horned Frogs and has accrued some legacy. He's led TCU to 16 bowls in his first 20 seasons (a 17th appearance was canceled in 2020) and he's posted 11 seasons of 10-plus wins. From 2008-11 (a four-year span), TCU went 47-5, including 13-0 in 2010. TCU had 12-1 seasons in 2009 and 2014. However, the team entered this season on a three-year run of just 18-17. Texas Tech's Matt Wells ins in his third season in Lubbock, after leading Utah St to bowls in five of his six seasons. However, the Red Raiders have gone 4-8 and 4-6 in his first two seasons. That's changed in 2021, as Tech has opened 4-1. The Horned Frogs opened 2-0 but then lost 42-34 to rival SMU on Sep 25 and followed with a hard-fought 32-27 last Saturday against Texas (note: TT lost 70-35 to Texas!). QB Max Duggan (63.2% for 899 yards with 8 TDs and 2 INTs plus 143 rushing yards and two TDs) leads a well-balanced offense. TCU is averaging 197.0 YPG rushing, led by Zach Evans (443 yards on 7.8 YPC with 3 TDs). The offense is averaging 35.0 PPG (33rd) but the defense is not a strength like in years past, allowing 27.3 PPG (85th) on 397.3 YPG (83rd). Texas Tech QB Tyler Shough will be out for several more weeks with a broken collarbone, so Henry Colombi, who has filled in the last two games, will again get the start. He entered in the 70-35 loss to Texas and passed for 324 yards with three TDs (one INT). He was 23 of 34 for 266 yards (0 TDs / 0 INTs) in last Saturday's 23-20 upset at West Va. Texas Tech's defense struggles much like TCU's (that 70 points vs Texas won't go away), allowing 30.8 PPG (102nd). Tech's 23-20 victory at West Virginia last week helped Texas Tech chase away the aftertaste of a 70-35 loss at Texas the week before, while TCU is in a different kind of mood after its comeback bid against the Longhorns fizzled in a 32-27 setback last week. "We can't feel sorry for ourselves," Max Duggan said. "Going in two weeks straight with a loss is going to suck, but nobody is going to feel bad for us. Texas Tech isn't going to feel sorry for us." After their big road win in West Virginia, I think a bit of a letdown is in order here for the Red Raiders, while conversely, after back-to-back losses, this one absolutely "means more" to the hungry Horned Frogs. Note that TCU last lost THREE games in a row back in 2018, while Texas Tech is on a 1-6 ATS slide off an ATS win. This showdown is dubbed "The Battle for the Saddle" and expect for TCU to 'ride away' with it on Saturday. Good luck...Larry |
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10-09-21 | Michigan State v. Rutgers +6 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -111 | 47 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Rutgers at 12:00 ET. The "Mel Tucker Era" began in 2020 with the Spartans going 2-5. Michigan State entered the season as an afterthought but after a 5-0 start, the Spartans are now knocking at the door for a top-10 ranking (moved up to No. 11 in the AP's poll last Sunday). Michigan St visits Piscataway, NJ at "high noon" on Saturday, taking on 3-2 Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights' head coach is Greg Schiano, who is in his second stint with the school. Schiano led Rutgers to SIX bowls in a seven-year span (2005-2011), winning his last five bowls, before taking over the Tampa Bay Bucs in the NFL. He went 7-9 and 4-12 and THAT was THAT. He returned to Rutgers in the COVID year of 2020 and went 3-6. The question looms, is Mich St really a top-10 team? QB Payton Thorne is completing 63.1% for 1,236 yards with 11 TDs and just one INT. the running game is averaging 210.8 YPG (24th), led by the nation's leading rusher Kenneth Walker III, who has 680 yards on 6.8 YPC (136.0 YPG). He's got nine TDs, eight rushing. WR Jayden Reed has 20 catches for 468 yards (23.1 YPC) and five TDs. Reed leads all major-college players in all-purpose yardage, with 176.6 per game. He has caught at least one TD pass in the last four games and he's returned a punt for a touchdown in two consecutive games. Throw in a Michigan St defense that's allowing just 20.6 PPG (39th) and maybe the answer is yes, the Spartans are that good! That said, beware of Rutgers. If one just looks at last Saturday's 52-13 loss last Saturday at Ohio St, you could be missing something. Rutgers' defense was shredded for 541 yards and failed to produce a takeaway for the third straight game. Ohio State led 45-6 at halftime. Yes, Rutgers can't play with Ohio St (Buckeyes have scored at least 49 points in EIGHT straight wins) but look at the team's first four games. Rutgers opened 3-0 and then played Michigan (5-0 start and has NEVER trailed all season) even in a 20-13 loss. The defense held Michigan to just 275 total yards, including 112 rushing yards (Wolverines have averaged 255.0 YPG on the ground for the season). Rutgers doesn't have the skill position players on offense that Michigan St does but I believe Rutgers has the BETTER defense. A closer look at the Spartans' D shows that while it has allowed 20.3 PPG, it has also allowed 428.8 YPG (101st). Maybe Rutgers' QB Vedral (66.7% for 914 yards) with six TDs and three INTs (all three picks came vs Ohio St!) plus RB Pacheco (267 yards on 3.8 YPC with 3 TDs) can have success here at home. Getting back to the Rutgers' D, despite the horrific effort vs Ohio St, Rutgers is still allowing 21.2 PPG (42nd) on 320.2 YPG (40th). Prior to the Ohio St contest and INCLUDING the game vs Michigan, Rutgers had allowed 13.5 PPG on 265.0 YPG. Referring to the Ohio St game, Greg Schiano said he wants that loss to sting. "I hope we can't put it behind us that quickly," he said. "That wasn't a great outing, so we have to get to work and that's what we did. Hopefully, those kinds of things fuel you a little bit and get you cranking here early in the week." The Scarlet Knights took the Wolverines "down to the wire," and this is exactly the same sort of competitive affair that I expect to see from Rutgers here as well, after the back-to-back losses. Upset Alert? I think so but of course, take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-02-21 | Liberty v. UAB -1.5 | Top | 36-12 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 5 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on UAB at 7:00 ET. Hugh Freeze was 10-2 in a one-year stint at Arkansas St, which he used as a springboard to get the job at Ole miss. However, his stay ended amid recruiting and academic violations. He resurfaced at Liberty in 2019 and led the Flames to a 8-5 season, including a Cure Bowl win. Then came last year's 10-1 team that capped its season with a second straight Cure Bowl win over an 11-0 Coastal Carolina team. Liberty opened the current season 3-0 and were on the cusp of breaking into the AP top-25 but lost 24-21 at Syracuse last Saturday. The Orange kicked the game-winning 35-yard field goal with no time on the clock, using a late turnover to set up the game-winner.
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10-02-21 | Army v. Ball State +7.5 | Top | 16-28 | Win | 100 | 58 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* Non-Conference Game of the Month is on Ball State at 5:00 ET. Army, under head coach Jeff Monken, has been 'bowling' in FOUR of the last five seasons (won 10 games in 2017, 11 in 2018 and went 9-3 in last year's pandemic-shortened season, after losing 24-21 to West Va in the Liberty Bowl (covered at plus-7). The Black Knights have opened 4-0 here in 2021 but I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that their four opponents are a combined 3-13 (.188) SU to open the current season. Ball St has opened 1-3, which is somewhat of a head-scratcher, as the Cardinals are coming off a 7-1 season in 2020. The Cardinals lost their delayed season-opener but then won FIVE in a row to reach the MAC title games against Buffalo which had gone 5-0, while averaging 43.4 PPG. However, as a 13-point underdog, Ball St beat Buffalo 38-28 and then went on to beat a then-7-0 San Jose St team (also 7-0 ATS) 34-13 in the Arizona Bowl. Entering this season, 10 starters returned on both offense and defense and I read more than a few places that this year's team was shaping up as head coach Mike Neu's best (this marks his 6th season at Muncie). It's no surprise that Army comes in averaging 344.5 YPG rushing (No. 2 in the nation, averaging 5.2 YPC with 17 rushing TDs. QB Anderson is the team's leading rusher 431 yards on 7.4 YPC and 5 TDs) with Robinson being the most productive RB (215 yards on 11.3 YPC). Anderson has attempted just 15 passes with three TDs and zero INTs (for only 187 yards). The best thing Army's defense has is that the offense controls the clock by 'eating' yards and time off the clock, while 'coughing up' just one turnover. The Army D checks in allowing 19.0 PPG (38th) on 277.8 YPG (16th). The 'trick' for Ball St will be to move the ball and keep Army from dominating the game with its rushing attack. Easier said than done but I think Ball St is capable of a breakout performance in this one. QB Plitt is completing 61.2% but for only 614 yards in four games (two TDs / three INTs). That compares to him throwing for 2,164 yards with 17 TDs and six INTs in just eight games last season. In 2019, he threw for 2,918 yards with 24 TDs and seven INTs. He's WAAY better than he's looked so far. I noted Army's recent success up top but being favored on the road is not something Army has seen much of. The Black Knights have been a road favorite just SEVEN times in the last five seasons, going 4-3 SU and ATS. Army has next weekend off and then plays three straight important opponents, Wisconsin, Wake Forest (off to a 4-0 start) and Air Force (3-1 start). Upset alert? Just maybe but be sure to take the points, remembering Army's opponents so far are a combined 3-13! Good luck...Larry |
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10-01-21 | BYU -7.5 v. Utah State | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 80 h 27 m | Show |
My 9* Friday Night Lights play is on BYU at 9:00 ET. BYU surprised all by going 11-1 (9-3 ATS) in 2020 (finished 11th in the final coaches' poll) and are making a strong case that the Cougars are going to be pretty good in 2021, as well. Jaren Hall beat out Baylor Romney for the starting QB job and had BIG shoes to fill (Zach Wilson). Hall led the Cougars to a 3-0 start, passing for 561 yards (7 TDs / 2 INTs) plus ran for 166 yards (8.3 YPC). However, Hall took a hit with about a minute remaining in BYU's win over ASU and it was more serious than at first reported. Romney got the start last Saturday vs USF and threw for 305 yards and three TDs. At 4-0, BYU is now ranked 13th in the current AP poll. Utah St opened 3-0 (also 3-0 ATS), starting with three straight wins for the first time since 1978. QB Logan Bonner (959 passing yards / 7 TDs / 5 INTs) helps lead an offense averaging 533.3 YPG (10th), and is aided by a strong running game (213.5 YPG). However, the Aggies' defense is a liability, allowing 463.3 YPG (121st) and 29.8 PPG (101st). Whether it's Hall or Romney at QB, I like BYU and its defense, which is allowing 19.3 PPG. The BYU defense got overlooked last year as well, with Wilson leading an offense that averaged 43.5 PPG (Note: the Cougars' D allowed just 15.3 PPG in 2020). BYU is 16-4 SU vs Utah St since 1994 and when the Aggies 'stepped up in class' last week vs Boise St, the offense managed just THREE points, with Bonner completing only 11 of 25 for 173 yards with two INTs. Yes, Utah St is at home vs BYU (played at Boise St), but the Aggies are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 as a home dog. Cougars roll. Good luck...Larry |
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09-25-21 | Florida Atlantic v. Air Force -4 | Top | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 82 h 35 m | Show |
My 9* Group of 5 Game of the Week is on Air Force at 8:00 ET. FAU lost 35-14 at Florida to open the season ('backdoor' cover) but has rebounded with two wins, 38-6 over Ga Southern and 45-14 over Fordham. The Owls are back on the road this Saturday at Colorado Springs to take on Air Force. The Falcons rolled to back-to-back victories at home against Lafayette (35-14) and 23-3 at Navy to open the season. However, Air Force is in bounce-back mode here after falling 49-45 to Utah State last weekend when RB Calvin Tyler Jr. raced 61 yards for the go-ahead TD with just under four minutes to play to lift Utah State to the win over in the Mountain West Conference opener for both teams. FAU head coach Willie Taggert is in his second season with FAU and his career has mirrored a ping pong game. He starred at Western KY as a QB and began his coaching career at Western Ky in 2010. He's since made stops at USF (four years), Oregon (one year) and two years at FSU. The good news is he has a good QB in N’Kosi Perry has 871 passing yards with 7 TDs and zero INTs. He's a Miami-Fl transfer and seems to like being a BIG 'fish' in 'small' pound. However, the running game averages about 150 YPG less than that of Air Force. It's no surprise that Air Force averages 327.7 YPG (4th-best in the nation) on 5.2 YPC. QB Daniels showed some passing ability in the loss to Utah St (6 of 12 for 182 yards and one TD) plus is part of variety of players who contribute to the running game. Three players topped 100 yards rushing last Saturday (including Daniels) and on the season, WR Davis has run for 146 yards (10.7 YPC) with three rushing TDs. In stark contrast to Taggert, Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun is in his 15th season since following the legendary Fisher DeBerry (23 years). He led Air Force to 10 bowl games in his first 13 seasons, before the team went 2-2 in 2020's COVID-shortened season. Tough spot for FAU traveling cross-country to play in altitude, facing a strong home team coming off a late-game loss last Saturday. Air Force comes in 22-8 ATS in its last 30 non-conference games. Lay the points and EXPECT a decisive Air Force victory! Good luck...Larry |
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09-25-21 | Indiana -9 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 33-31 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Indiana at 8:00 ET. Indiana head coach Tom Allen has made a HUGE difference to the football program, as after back-to-back 5-7 (2-7 in Big Ten play) seasons in 2010 and 2018, he's led the Hoosiers to back-to-back bowl games. Indiana went 8-5 in 2019 and 6-2 in 2020's pandemic-shortened season. The Hoosiers were 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in Big Ten play but then lost to a 4-5 Ole Miss team 26-20 (as a 9 1/2-point favorite) in the Outback Bowl. Indiana opened the season ranked 17th (the school's first top-25 preseason appearance since 1968), However, Indiana hasn't gotten off to the start it wanted in 2021. That said, Indiana's two losses have come against No. 5 Iowa (34-6) and No. 8 Cincinnati (38-24). In between, the Hoosiers hammered Idaho 56-14.
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09-25-21 | Kansas State v. Oklahoma State -5.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 101 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* Big 12 Game of the Year is on Oklahoma St at 7:00 ET. Kansas St and Oklahoma St meet Saturday in Stillwater in the Big 12 opener for each school. Both a 3-0 with the Wildcats looking a little bit better than the Cowboys so far. Kansas State is off a 38-17 home win over Nevada last Saturday, after opening with a neutral site win over Stanford (24-7) and an unimpressive home win over Southern Illinois (31-23). Neither of Kansas St's two QBs, Skyar Thompson or Will Howard have looked overly impressive, However, RB Vaughn has run for 371 yards on 8.0 YPC with five TDs (he rushed for a career-best 218 yards in last Saturday). Oklahoma AB Spencer Sanders is well thought of but so far has underachieved. He missed the season opener and in two games back has been nothing special He was just 6 of 13 for 82 yards at Boise St but he has run for 102 yards in his two games, scoring a rushing TD at Boise. Mike Gundy starred at Stillwater as a QB and returned to coach his alma mater in 2005. He went just 4-7 (1-7 in Big 12 play) in his 'freshman year' but has led Okie St to 15 straight bowl appearances since then (10-5). His 2011 team was 12-1 (No. 3 finish in the AP poll) and he's produce five other season of 10-plus wins. Chris Klieman had the unenviable task of taking over for the legendary Bill Snyder and after an 8-5 first season, was 4-6 in 2020. This will be K-Sate's first true road game and Kieman has yet to beat the Cowboys, falling 26-13 in 2019 and 20-18 in Manhattan last year. Kansas St has home games vs Oklahoma (No. 4) and Iowa St (No. 14) up next. Could the visitors get caught looking ahead? Oklahoma St is 3-0 but hasn't yet but together an "A effort," as the Cowboys have won their first three games by a total of just 13 points. However, I see one coming. Going back to OSU's 'magical' season of 2011 (see above), the Cowboys are 50-15 SU at Boone Pickens Stadium and they are currently on a 13-5 ATS record in their last 18 against teams with winning records, Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-25-21 | Iowa State -6.5 v. Baylor | Top | 29-31 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 60 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Iowa St at 3:30 ET. Matt Campbell has led Iowa St to FOUR straight bowls. He led Iowa St to its first regular-season first-place finish of any sort in 119 years in 2020 and then the Cyclones were selected for the 2021 Fiesta Bowl, the first major-bowl appearance in school history, defeating Oregon 34-17 (BTW...It was CFB Game of the Year!). Iowa St finished ninth in both major bowls, the highest final ranking in school history. Iowa St was ranked 7th in the AP's preseason poll but was 'lucky to escape 16-10 over Northern Iowa in its opener and then lost its Cy-Hawk showdown vs Iowa (27-7), before routing a non-competitive UNLV team 48-3. Matt Rhule led Baylor to an 11-3 season in 2019 but then left for the NFL (Carolina Panthers). Getting his first-ever head coaching job was Dave Aranda, known as a defensive specialist. However, his first season went poorly in 2020's "Season of COVID," as the Bears would go just 2-7 (3-6). However, while 2-1 Iowa St is the ranked team in this matchup (14th), Baylor is the 3-0 team. Then again, the Bears' wins have come over Texas St, Texas Southern and 45-7 over Kansas, which is now a hard-to-believe 5-85 over its last 90 Big 12 games. Iowa St's two best offensive players are both off to slow starts. QB Brock Purdy (46-18 TD.INT ratio the last two seasons) may be completing 71.4% but he's thrown for a modest 625 yards with three TDs and three INTs. RB Breece Hall, who led the nation in rushing last season with 1,572 yards, while scoring 21 TDs, has run for just 238 yards (4.0 YPC) and four scores. However, the Iowa St defense has been terrific, allowing just 194.0 YPG (No. 1) and 13.3 PPG (14th) The Baylor defense is allowing 235.0 YPG (8th) and 11.3 PPG (10th) but as noted above, the competition lacks any quality opponents. The offense is averaging 46.7 PPG (5th) on 559.3 YPG (3rd) but again, consider the competition. QB Boharian has thrown for 664 yards with five TDs and zero INTs in 70 attempts. The Bears feature a strong running game (322.3 YPG ranks 5th) with Smith gaining 366 yards (7.8 YPC) and Ebner (317 yards (7.5 YPC). Baylor dominated this series going 7-2 from 2005-2016 but Iowa St has won THREE of the last four. Some may feel that Iowa St should NOT be this big of a favorite on the road but I disagree. This is Baylor's first real test of 2021 and I say its final grade by game's end will be an "F!" Lay it. Good luck...Larry |
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09-25-21 | LSU v. Mississippi State +2.5 | Top | 28-25 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Mississippi State at 12:00 ET). LSU opened the season ranked 16th in the AP's preseason poll, despite coming off a HUGELY disappointing 5-5 season in 2020. That came on the heels of LSU's magical 2019 season win in which the Tigers went 15-0 and won the national championship. The Tigers lost 38-27 at UCLA in their first game but LSU has bounced back with home wins of 34-7 over McNeese St and 49-21 over Central Michigan.
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09-24-21 | Middle Tennessee State +3.5 v. Charlotte | Top | 39-42 | Win | 100 | 80 h 53 m | Show |
My Friday Night Lights Play is a 9* on Middle Tenn St at 6:30 ET.
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09-18-21 | Arizona State -4 v. BYU | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* CFB Week 3 Marquee is on Arizona St at 10:15 ET. Both Arizona St and BYU have opened 2-0. The Sun Devils haven't really been tested, rolling at home 41-14 over Southern Utah and 37-10 over UNLV. Meanwhile, BYU opened with a 24-16 win in Las Vegas over Arizona and then followed with a 26-17 'Holy War' win over Utah in Provo (ended a 9-game losing streak in the rivalry).
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09-18-21 | Charlotte v. Georgia State -3 | Top | 9-20 | Win | 100 | 125 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* Group of 5 Game of the Year is on Georgia St at 7:00 ET. The Charlotte football program was created in 2008 and gained FBS status in 2013. Georgia State began its football program in 2010 and joined the SBC in 2013. The Panthers went 0-12 in 2013 and then 1-13 in 2014. However, the program has gotten things figured out, as the Panthers have played in FOUR bowls the last six seasons. However, Charlotte has opened 2-0 in 2021, while Ga St sits at 0-2. Charlotte upset Duke 31-28 at home in Week 1 as a six-point underdog (the school's first-ever Power 5 win), before hammering Gardner-Webb 38-10 as a 22.5 point favorite. QB Reynolds has thrown for a modest 427 yards but his running game is averaging 230.0 YPG on 5.3 YPC ((leading rusher Camp has just 107 yards). Defense has been a major issue for Charlotte, as the 49ers entered the 2021 season having allowed more than 30 PPG is SIX of the last seven seasons. Those defensive woes haven't reared its ugly head yet this season, but it's coming (note: The 49ers allowed 352 rush yards (8.0 YPC) against Duke in the opener.). Georgia St was routed 43-10 at Army on Sep 4 and then last Saturday was in the wrong place at the wrong time, playing at North Carolina, which was coming off a season opening loss to Va Tech. NC's Heisman-hopeful QB Sam Howell threw for 352 yards (three TDs) and ran for 104 yards with three TDs. The Tar Heels won 59-17. We just played a talented North Carolina team, and for two-and-a-half quarters, we fought and we scrapped and we clawed to try to hang in there," Panthers' head coach Shawn Elliott said earlier this week. "About six or seven minutes left in that third quarter, it was still a two-possession ballgame, but then it got away from us. So there were some positives, but obviously, no one in our football program is feeling good about where we are right now." Ga St opened the season with 11 returning starters on offense and eight on defense and will NOT face that kind of offensive talent here. The Panthers almost NEED to win this one, as a trip to Auburn is up next (0-4 start?). I think Charlotte's 2-0 start is a little bit of a 'mirage' and I expect an EASY win for the home side. After all, Charlotte is just 8-26 SU on the road the last six seasons and this is its first roadie of 2021. I like betting on motivated teams and there's NO question that the Panthers fit the bill and this contest is a big step down in competition, plus they got back some missing starters last week. That's the play. Good luck...Larry |
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09-18-21 | Northwestern -2.5 v. Duke | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -117 | 118 h 50 m | Show |
The 1st play of my STP is an 8* on Northwestern at 4:00 ET. Both teams enter at 1-1, but I feel that this is a matchup which favors Northwestern. The Wildcats are the slight favorite here on the road, but I feel they could be much bigger ones. Northwestern is led by QB Hunter Johnson, who has 341 yards passing in the early going, with four TDs and just one INT. Evan Hull has 213 rushing yards and two TDs for the Wildcats. Gunnar Holmberg has 498 passing yards, one TD and no INTs for Duke (he also has 24 rushing yards and two TDs scored on the ground.) Mataeo Durant has carried the ball 44 times for a team-high 296 yards and six major scores. Northwestern was 7-2 last season after a bowl win over Auburn, ending as the AP's 10th-ranked team. Yes, the Wildcats returned only eight starters but I firmly believe they are a much stronger team than Duke, which was only 2-9 in 2020. Northwestern lost its season opener to Michigan St but the Spartans look like they'll be a top-25 team. Duke lost its opener at Charlotte and a 45-17 win over NC A&T means little. I'm not reading too much into Duke's early numbers, as its level of competition has skewed them on both sides of the ball. Pat Fitzgerald has had some career at Northwestern, leading the Wildcats to 10 bowl bids in the last 13 season (Northwestern has won its last four bowl games). Including this game, northwester has four Beatable foes over the next five weeks (one bye). Could this be the "start of something big?" Just maybe. For this one, lay the small spread. Good luck...Larry |
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09-18-21 | Virginia Tech v. West Virginia -2.5 | Top | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 64 h 38 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on West Va at 12:00 ET. |
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09-17-21 | Maryland v. Illinois +8 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 100 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* Big Ten Game of the Month is on Illinois at 9:00 ET. Maryland's opened the season 2-0, after playing just five games last season (2-3). The Terps upset West Va in 9/4 at home 30-24 and then routed Howard 62-0 last Saturday (again at home). QB Taulia Tagovailoa has thrown six TDs (zero INTs). The defense posted a shutout last weekend, after holding West Va to a modest 20 points. However, for me, this is a classic case of not "overreacting" to early numbers (more in a bit). Illinois finished 2-6 last year, firing head coach Lovie Smith after seven games. The Illini hired Bret Bielema, who was terrific at Wisconsin but a flop at Arkansas. He took over a program that last posted a winning season in 2011! The 2021 season got off to an excellent start, as Illinois upset Nebraska at home 30-22 on Aug 28 but the team has since lost 37-30 at home to UTSA (9/4), before getting routed 42-14 on 9/11 at UVa. Peters was the returning starter at QB but was injured early vs Nebraska and has not returned. Artur Sitkowski has stepped in and has six TDs and just one INT (don't blame him!). There will be NO lack of motivation here for the Illini, as a loss just could send Bielema's first season at College Park spiraling out of control. I believe Maryland is nowhere near as good as its 2-0 start and with games coming up against Iowa (10/1) and at Ohio St (10/9) coming up soon, I expect the Terps to get 'exposed.' Hey, why not start that process right here, as the Terps are just 3-11 SU on the road the last three seasons. Does that sound like a team that is supposed to be a road favorite of a TD or more? "Bow wow" The Illini 'bark' LOUDLY in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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09-11-21 | Utah v. BYU +7 | Top | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 67 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* CFB Rivalry Game of the Year is on BYU at 10:15 ET. Utah visits BYU (both teams have opened 1-0) for the school's annual "Holy War" for the Beehive Boot. Utah is off a 40-17 win over Weber State, while BYU beat Arizona 24-16 in Las Vegas. The two bitter rivals did not meet last season (COVID) for just the SECOND time since 1946. To say this is a "revenge" game for BYU would be an understatement, as it's lost nine straight in this series. |
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09-11-21 | Memphis v. Arkansas State +5.5 | Top | 55-50 | Win | 100 | 80 h 43 m | Show |
My 9* Group of 5 Game of the Week is on Arkansas St at 7:00 ET. Arkansas State comes in under the radar here in my opinion. The Red Wolves are off a relatively simple 40-21 win over Central Arkansas as 14-point favorites and I believe they have a legitimate shot at winning today's game outright. Memphis is off a 42-17 win over Nicholls State, but with a game at home against Mississippi State next weekend, I believe the Tigers are going to get caught looking ahead to that much more high-profile matchup. Seth Henigan had 265 yards passing and a TD for Memphis last weekend, while Brandon Thomas rushed for 147 yards and a touchdown. Not to be outdone though, the Red Wolves got a couple of good performances, as James Blackman threw for 169 yards in last week's win, while Layne Hatcher threw for 150 yards and 4 TDs on a perfect 12 of 12 passing! Alan Lamar led the rushing attack with 67 yards and a TD on 18 carries. These two teams are led by their dynamic offenses and everything points to an old-fashioned shootout. It really does have the feel to me of whichever team has its hands on the ball last is going to win this one. As such, I'm grabbing the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-11-21 | Iowa v. Iowa State -3.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -120 | 121 h 19 m | Show |
My 9* CFB Week 2 Marquee is on Iowa St at 4:30 ET. Iowa State lost to Iowa 18-17 in 2019. While it lost straight up, it did manage to cover the spread in that one, as it had 1.5 points afforded to it. This is a revenge game for the home side (these teams didn't face each other last season.) Iowa State likely got caught looking ahead to this game after having to hold on for a 16-10 win here over Northern Iowa last week. It was a lackluster effort, as the Cyclones were a 28.5 point favorite. Iowa clobbered Indiana 34-6 at home last weekend as a 3.5 point favorite. After this game though Iowa doesn't play again until October 1st, while Iowa State has a game at UNLV next weekend. Regardless, both teams come into this game 1-0 with Iowa St ranked No.. 9 and Iowa at No. 10 *up from No. 18). The Hawkeyes won 34-6 over Indiana last week but QB Spencer Petras threw for just 145 yards on 13 of 27 passing while also rushing for a score as well. However, the Iowa offense gained just 303 yards, scoring two TDs on INT returns. I seriously wonder if it's more a case of Indiana just playing terribly, rather than Iowa being a world beater right out of the gate to start the season. While Iowa State had a much more difficult time in its opening game, QB Brock Purdy quietly had 199 yards on 21 of 26 passing, while also rushing for 58 yards on nine carries (he's thrown 46 TDs vs 18 INTs the last two seasons). Breece Hall (led the nation in rushing last season with 1,572 yards plus added 21 TDs) but had just 69 yards and a TD on 23 carries for 69 yards and a touchdown. The Cyclones defense was also stout, allowing just 10 points to a dangerous Northern Iowa team. Yes, Iowa has won 13 of the last 17 meetings (plus enters on a seven-game winning streak after ending last season with six straight wins) but Iowa St has 20 returning starters and is also 7-2 ATS in its last nine as a home favorite in the -2.5 to -4.5 points range. Nothing but good things to say about Iowa's Kirk Ferentz but Matt Campbell has led Iowa St to FOUR straight bowls. He led Iowa St to its first regular-season first-place finish of any sort in 119 years and then the Cyclones were selected for the 2021 Fiesta Bowl, the first major-bowl appearance in school history, and defeated Oregon 34-17. They finished ninth in both major bowls, the highest final ranking in school history. Now it's time to win the "biggest-ever Cy-hawk game in series history. I like the revenge-minded home side to pull away down the stretch. Lay the points, the play is Iowa State. Good luck...Larry |
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09-05-21 | Notre Dame v. Florida State +7 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
My 9* 'Bobby Bowden Bowl' is on Florida State at 7:30 ET. This will be an emotional contest for Florida State, as it is the Seminoles' first game since Bobby Bowden's death (the program will honor its legendary head coach before the game starts. It is also a very important season, as Florida State's 3-6 record last year was its worst since going 3-8 in 1975, the year before Bowden took over. Visiting Tallahassee Sunday night will be Notre Dame, which made the CFP last season and opens 2021 as the AP's 9th-ranked team. However, this is considered a "reloading" year for the Fighting Irish. Taking over at QB for Ian Book (a huge winner and third-down master) will be Wisconsin transfer, Jack Coan. His challenge is to lead an offense with just TWO returning starters. FSU features one of the best stories in college football this season with the debut of former UCF quarterback McKenzie Milton. Milton will be taking the field for the first time in 33 months, after suffering a knee injury against USF in November 2018. The injury was so gruesome that doctors had to consider amputation. After a grueling rehab process and a transfer to Tallahassee, Milton looks to complete a near-miraculous comeback. This is a great opportunity for the Seminoles to catch the Irish a little uncertain in a few areas. Mike Norvell steps in as FSU's new head coach and in four seasons at Memphis he led the tigers to a 38-15 record and four bowl berths. I like this guy and and he has all the tools in place to improve his offense dramatically this year. I'm not calling for an upset but the again, I may just be. Bottom line is, TAKE the points! Good luck...Larry |
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09-04-21 | Nevada +3.5 v. California | Top | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 122 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* Non-Conference Game of the Month is on Nevada at 10:30 ET. Nevada and Cal open their respective season Saturday Sep 4 at California Memorial Stadium in Berkeley. Nevada is coached by Jay Norvell and Cal by Justin Wilcox. Both arrived at their respective schools in 2017. Norvell went 3-9 in his first season in Reno but has led the Wolf Pack to three straight bowls since then, including going 7-2 in last year's pandemic-shortened season after beating Tulane 38-27 in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Wilcox was 5-7 in his first season but then led Cal to back-to-back bowls in 2018 and 2019. However, COVID pretty much wiped out Cal's entire 2020 season, as the Bears would play just four games (1-3). I like what Nevada brings to the table in Week 1. QB Carson Strong is expected to take another big step forward this year. Last season he finished with 2,858 yards, 70.1 percent passing, along with a sharp 27-4 TD-to-INT ratio. RB Toa Taua is now a senior and he finished with 675 rushing yards last year. Keep your eyes on WR Romeo Doubs as well, as he had 1,002 yards on 58 receptions in 2020. Nevada returns 10 starters on both offense AND defense. The Wolf Pack were the most penalized team in the MWC last year but with the core of each unit returning, this sloppy play is also expected to take a big turn in the right direction this season. Cal's defense has been solid the last few years, but the offense has struggled under QB Chase Garbers. He's dealt with several injury issues over the years. He'll benefit from having most of his starting receivers return this season but the offensive line is another issue entirely. The Cal offense was one-dimensional last year, as the OL was never able to stop any sort of a pass rush. Four of the five starters return up front for Cal, so the unit should/could make big progressions this season. Still, Cal offense averaged just 20.3 PPG on 320 YPG in 2020. Yes, Cal leads the series 22-3-1 but the schools have only met TWICE since 2010. Nevada won 53-21 in Reno back in 2010 and at Berkeley 31-24 in 2012. I believe Nevada is just too deep and have a hard time seeing this Cal offense keeping up the pace down the stretch. The Wolf Pack's defense was middle of the road last year, but with 10 starters returning, expect a significantly improved unit this season. I say that improvement starts right here in Week 1. I think the outright win is in the cards, but let's grab as many points as they give you. Closing clincher: Under HC Justin Wilcox, Cal is a money-burning 1-8-1 ATS as a home favorite. Good luck...Larry |
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09-04-21 | Georgia v. Clemson -3 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
My 9* NCAAF Week 1 Marquee is on Clemson at 7:30 ET. The No.3-ranked Clemson Tigers take on the No. 5-ranked Georgia Bulldogs Saturday night for the Duke's Mayo Classic in Charlotte. It marks the first meeting between the two regional rivals since 2014, Saturday night's prime time showdown has been eagerly anticipated since being announced last year that ESPN's "College GameDay" will be on hand. Clemson is coming off a 10-2 season that ended with a 49-28 loss to Ohio State in the College Football Playoff semifinals at the Sugar Bowl, while Georgia went 8-2 last season, capping its campaign with a 24-21 win over Cincinnati in the Peach Bowl. This game is being played at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, where Clemson has won the last four ACC championship games. Here's a list: 34-10 over Notre Dame. 62-17 over Virginia. 42-10 over Pittsburgh. 38-3 over Miami-Fl. Nick Saban's success at Alabama is unmatched but in "second-place" is Clemson's Dabo Swinney. He has led Clemson to 10-plus wins in 10 consecutive seasons and the Tigers have made the 'Final 4' in the last six CFP, winning national titles in 2016 and 2018. Clemson is the ONLY team the in the country to make the playoff each of the last six years. This will be Clemson's first game in years without the record-setting tandem of QB Trevor Lawrence and RB Travis Etienne, both of whom were selected by the Jacksonville Jaguars in the first round of the NFL draft last spring. However, don't 'cry' for the Tigers. There are NO worries about DJ Uiagalelei taking over at QB. Filling in for Lawrence last season, he passed for 342 yards in his first career start against BC and then followed that by passing for 439 yards at Notre Dame (most passing yards ND has ever allowed to an opposing QB). 5 TDs and zero INTs in 117 attempts for the season. Clemson has a crowded RB situation with senior Lyn-J Dixon the most experienced of the bunch. However, true freshmen Will Shipley and Phil Mafah were so impressive in fall camp that they could see considerable playing time. As for Clemson's defense, it returns NINE of 11 starters and boasts one of the most imposing front lines in the country. Georgia's defensive front is expected to rank among the nation's best. The Bulldogs led the country in rushing defense last year after finishing among the national leaders in that category in 2019. However, Georgia's defensive secondary will be breaking in three new starters. Much is being made of JT Daniels at QB for Georgia. He started the final four games last season and threw for 1,231 yards (67.2%) with 10 TDs and 2 INTs. However, his regular season wins came over Miss St, South Carolina and Missouri (combined regular season record of 10-20). Georgia did beat Cincy in Peach Bowl 24-21 but needed to outscore them 14-0 in the 4th-quarter. The game-winner came on a 53-yard FG with THREE seconds left! Here's a great quote by an opposing coach about Georgia. "The Bulldogs are consistent and talented but are still figuring out how to become elite." Kirby Smart is in his 6th season at Georgia, going 52-14. This just in! He's NO Dabo Swinney. Let's look at his last four years. 2017: won SEC champ game over Auburn but then suffered a heartbreaking 26-23 loss (OT) to Alabama in the national championship game. 2018: lost SEC champ game to Ala, blowing a 14-point lead. 2019: got routed 37-10 in SEC champ game by LSU. 2020: lost 41-24 at #2 Alabama as #3 team and then as #5 team, got crushed by Fla (#8) 44-28 in to biggest regular season meetings. Where's the team's "big game" win under Smart? Georgia has won SEVEN straight season openers but its last loss in a season opener came 2013. The school that beat them? You guessed it, Clemson. Smart and Georgia once again come up sort in a "Big Game!" Good luck...Larry |
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09-04-21 | UTSA +6 v. Illinois | Top | 37-30 | Win | 100 | 100 h 4 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on UTSA at 7:30 ET I say the Illini have a letdown here after their 30-22 upset victory to kick off the season at home over favored Wisconsin last Saturday (note: Illinois last beat Nebraska in back-to-back years in 1923-24). UTSA finished 7-5 last year and made it to a bowl game, ultimately falling 31-24 to Louisiana. Illinois finished 2-6 last year. Head coach Lovie Smith was fired after seven games (note: The Illini last posted a winning season in 2011!). But after their improbable 30-22 win over the Huskers, can anyone say "letdown" spot here? Illinois starting QB Brandon Peters left the game holding his left (non-throwing) shoulder after being sacked hard near the end of the first quarter. He was 3-of-4 passing for 35 yards. He did not return and was replaced by Artur Sitkowski, a sophomore transfer from Rutgers, who went 12-of-15 for 124 yards and two scores. Peters' status is up in the air for Saturday's game and I think it may be too much to expect that Sitkowski will match his effort vs Nebraska. The Road Runners have plenty of talent, and they've excelled in this spot for bettors, going 7-2 ATS in their last nine as an underdog and 7-2 ATS in their last nine on the road. UTSA has a potent and underrated offense that returns most of its core group of players (a unit that averaged 415 yards and 28 PPG last year.) Sincere McCormick is a dominant RB that keeps defenses honest and the entire offensive line returns as well. Illinois gave up 232 years on the ground last week, which doesn't bode well facing this run-first Road Runners attack.  With Maryland at home next, followed by a trip to Purdue, this is also a letdown/look-ahead spot for the home side. While I do in fact feel an outright upset is possible again on this field for a second straight week, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can. The play is UTSA. Good luck...Larry |
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09-04-21 | West Virginia v. Maryland +3 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 98 h 10 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Maryland at 3:30 ET. Maryland's going to have its hands full today with a WVU defense that should be among the best in the Big 12. However, I think the Terps can match pace with the Mountaineers and come away with what some may call a surprising OUTRIGHT win. The problem for West Virginia is on the offensive side. QB Jarret Doege looked brilliant at times last season, but he was prone to making mistakes as well. Several of them, and all of the time. Maryland has a well-balanced offense, which isn't great for West Virginia either. Taulia Tagovailoa will be given the green light today for the home side and he has a slew of dangerous weapons around him (including tight ends Malik Jackson and Chigoziem Okonkwo)  Last year was a difficult one for both teams. But I think that Maryland's ceiling to improve is huge, while WVU is poised for some minor regression on both sides of the ball.  Opening Day and on its own field, I think Maryland wins the day but why not take the points? The play is Maryland.  Good luck...Larry |
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09-04-21 | Army +3 v. Georgia State | Top | 43-10 | Win | 100 | 123 h 35 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Army at 12:00 ET. Georgia State opens the season at home against a tricky opponent. Clearly, with a spread like this, the oddsmakers feel these teams are evenly matched. I do as well. The Black Knights are not a powerhouse but under head coach Jeff Monken, Army has been 'bowling' in FOUR of the last five seasons (won 10 games in 2017, 11 in 2018 and went 9-3 in last year's pandemic-shortened season, after losing 24-21 to West Va in the Liberty Bowl (covered at plus-7). Army's option is always a challenge (finished fourth in the nation in rushing yards per game last year at 273 per) but Georgia State's strength on the defensive side of the ball is stopping the run (it ranked third in rushing defense last season.). The Panthers will need to deal with Army QB Tyhier Tyler, who had 578 rushing yards and five scores last year, all coming in the final seven games. Georgia State began its football program in 2010 and joined the SBC in 2013. The Panthers went 0-12 in 2013 and then 1-13 in 2014. However, the program has gotten things figured out, as the Panthers have played in FOUR bowls the last six seasons. That's likely bad news for the rest of the Sunbelt Conference moving forward. QB Cornelious Brown IV is back under center. He struggled with INTs last year, but he's expected to make big strides this year. These schools have only played one other time, with the Panthers winning 28-21 in 2019. However, that 2019 Army finished just 5-8, the school's LONE losing season in the past FIVE years! Georgia St has a VERY tough first month, as after this home game with Army, the Panthers have road games at No. 10 North Carolina on Sep 11 and at Auburn on Sep 25. I'm taking the points but expect an outright Army win, which means Georgia St will likely open 0-2 (maybe 1-3 in Sep). Good luck...Larry  |
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09-02-21 | Boise State v. Central Florida -4 | Top | 31-36 | Win | 100 | 292 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* NCAAF Season-Opener is on UCF at 7:00 ET. |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State v. Alabama -7 | Top | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 151 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* "Signature" LEGEND Play is on Alabama at 8:00 ET. It's 7-0 Ohio State vs 12-0 Alabama in the CFP Championship Game Monday night at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. The Buckeyes advanced with a DOMINATING 49-28 win over Clemson on Jan 1 in the semifinals. Ohio St QB Justin Fields threw for 385 yards and six TDs, while RB Trey Sermon ran 31 times for 193 yards, as the Buckeyes avenged last season's 29-23 semi final loss to the Tigers. The Clemson defense had NO answer for Fields and the Ohio St offense, as the Buckeyes reeled off 28 unanswered points to take a 35-14 halftime lead. Mac Jones threw four TD passes, three to WR DeVonta Smith, plus RB Harris 'hurdled' his way to 125 rushing yards, as top-ranked Alabama rolled to a 31-14 victory over fourth-ranked Notre Dame to reach the CFP title game for the FIFTH time in the system's seven seasons (won in 2015 and 2017). Alabama scored on its first THREE possessions and seemed to get 'bored' after taking a 28-7 lead in the third quarter (won 31-14). Justin Fields has some VERY sore ribs (broken) but there's VERY little doubt he will be under center for this game. He's completed 73.4% for 1,906 yards (remember, just seven games) with 21 TDs and six INTs. WRs Wilson (40 catches / 16.8 YPC/ 5 TDs) and Olave (42 catches / 15.7 YPC / 7 TDs) are terrific, while TE Ruckert has just 12 catches but FIVE have resulted in TDs. RB Sermon enters off running for 331 yards in the Big Ten championship game vs Northwestern and following with 193 yards against Clemson. Mac Jones completes 77.0% of his passes for 4,036 yards with 36 TDs and just four INTs, giving him a nation's best QB rating of 203.0. DeVonta Smith (105 catches / 15.6 YPC / 20 TDs) is considered the best WR in the nation and Nick Saban just announced that WR Jaylen Waddle (25 catches / 22.3 YPC / 4 TDs in four games) has been cleared to return to practice and could play in this game. RB Harris can't match Sermon's heroics of the last two games but ran for 1,387 yards on 6.1 YPC with 24 TDs on the season. Both offenses seem 'unstoppable,' as Ohio St averages 42.5 PPG (8th), while Alabama averages 49.7 PPG (2nd). Both defenses are strong with Ohio State allowing 21.0 PPG and Alabama 19.5 PPG. However, the Alabama defense has really 'found itself,' after a poor start. The Crimson Tide allowed 28.8 PPG through their first four games but just 14.1 PPG over their last eight. Note, that includes them giving up 46 points to Florida in the SEC title game. Eliminating that game and the Tide allowed just 9.6 PPG over SEVEN of their last eight! Yes, Ohio St can claim it's won EIGHT of its last nine games as an underdog SU but matching its effort against Clemson here vs Alabama is to me, 'a bridge too far!' According to Ohio St head coach Ryan Day, his team's loss to Clemson last season reverberated for nearly a year among the Buckeyes. "Fresh off of that game, it was right on our minds, and something that when we got back to work and winter workouts, January, February, it was right there for us," Day said Sunday. "Coming off that game, we just didn't get over it in one day. It took time. "There was even a sign with the score posted in the Buckeyes' weight room , an honor usually reserved for rival Michigan. Ohio St threw a 'near-perfect game' at Clemson and my bet says the Buckeyes can't "do it again" vs Alabama, a team which can 'gain separation' VERY quickly against an opponent. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry |
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01-02-21 | Oregon v. Iowa State -3.5 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 73 h 17 m | Show |
My CFB 10* Game of the Year is on Iowa St at 4:00 ET. When the pandemic-delayed Pac-12 season started, Oregon (AP preseason No. 9) was a co-favorite with USC to reach the title game. Both schools were only able to play five games but while USC went 5-0 (with THREE "close calls''), Oregon finished 3-2, second in the Pac-12's North Division behind Washington (3-1). The Ducks were scheduled to play Washington at home on Dec 12 but a COVID-19 spike in the Huskies' program caused Washington to cancel that game. That left Oregon 'out in the cold,' with the Huskies set to play the Trojans. However, the COVID situation in Seattle did NOT improve, so lo and behold, the Ducks replaced the Huskies in the championship game. In less than a week, Oregon went from understudy to center stage. Oregon made the most of the opportunity by defeating host USC 31-24 for the championship. The victory gave Oregon (25th in both the AP and CFP) the Pac-12's automatic berth to a New Year's Six game. Waiting for them will be 8-3 Iowa State (No. 10 CFP / No. 12 AP) in the Fiesta Bowl on Jan 2 in Glendale, Ariz. The Cyclones lost their season opener at home to ULL but then won SEVEN of their next eight games, including a 37-30 home win over then-No. 18 Oklahoma and a 23-20 road win at then-No. 17 Texas (it was Iowa St's first win in Austin since 2010). The Cyclones have never won a championship in the Big 12 or their previous league, the Big Eight. Iowa State's last conference title came back in 1912 (MVC). Iowa State made its first-ever appearance in the Big 12 championship game on Dec 19 but couldn't beat Oklahoma second time, falling 27-21. This is Mario Cristobal's third season at Oregon, having led the Ducks to back-to-back bowls while going 9-4 and 12-2. Despite losing QB Herbert to the NFL, the Ducks' current QB Tyler Shough has been a solid replacement, passing for 1,480 yards with 13 TDs and five INTs plus running for 263 yards on 4.2 YPC and two TDs. RB Dye has a team-high 391 yards on 7.0 YPC plus his eight receptions have averaged 27.6 YPC with four TDs. Fellow RB Verdell was coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons but has just 285 yards on 4.4 YPC with three TDs. A trio of WRs have combined for 50 catches and just five TDs. Oregon is averaging 33.7 PPG (30th) but allowing 27.3 PPG (55th) on 409.5 YPG (67th). Iowa St QB Purdy entered 2020 off a 2019 season in which he accounted for 35 TDs (27 passing / 8 rushing) and has completed 66.4% for 2,594 yards with 18 TDs and nine INTs (added four rushing TDs). Speaking of running the football, Breece Hall leads the nation with 1,436 rushing yards (5.9 YPC) and with 19 rushing TDs. WR Hutchinson leads with 60 catches (4 TDs) and TE Kolar has 39 catches with a team-high six TD receptions. Iowa St averaged 32.8 PPG (36th) on 449.1 YPG (26th), which works just fine with a defense allowing 21.8 PPG on 344.3 YPG (ranks 29th in both categories. Defensively, the Ducks are allowing 28.0 PPG. Iowa St's early upset by ULL was fueled by a 95 KO return TD and a 78-yard TD pass. The Iowa St defense held ULL to just 277 yards for the game, 78 of which came on that TD pass. The Cyclones' other two losses were 24-21 at then-No. 6 Oklahoma St and then 27-21 vs Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game, when Purdy threw THREE interceptions! I'm not sure a top Pac 12 team is anywhere near in the class of a top Big 12 team and believe Iowa St will demonstrate just that in this contest. Head coach Matt Campbell was 34-15 at Toledo with four bowl appearances and after a 3-9 first season (2016) in Ames, has now led the Cyclones to a FOURTH straight bowl. The Cyclones were not able to win that elusive conference championship but how about capping off the season with a win in the school's first-ever appearance in a New Year's Six Bowl! That's my bet. You in? I guess if you're reading this, you are! Good luck...Larry |
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01-02-21 | Kentucky v. NC State +3 | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on NC State at 12:00 ET. Both teams in Saturday's Gator bowl won their final games of the 2020 regular season on Dec 5, as Kentucky won 41-18 at home over a 2-8 South Carolina team, while NC State beat Ga Tech in Raleigh 23-13. However, that's where all similarity to their respective 2020 seasons ends. Mark Stoops got the head job at Kentucky back in 2013 but went just 12-25 in his first three seasons. However, Kentucky entered this season off FOUR straight bowl seasons. Yes, Stoops and the Wildcats are in a FIFTH straight bowl this season but don't forget, Kentucky is just 4-6. Dave Doeren is in his 8th season at NC State and after a 3-9 'rookie' year,' led the Wolfpack to FIVE straight winning seasons and bowl berths (3-2), before the Wolfpack slipped to 4-8 in 2019. NC St was picked to finish 11th in the ACC's preseason poll but enter this game 8-3 Kentucky opened 2-2, beating Miss St 24-2 and winning at Tennessee but its only two wins in its last six games came against 0-9 Vandy and 2-8 South Carolina, which played without its head coach and several key starters. QB Trey Wilson threw for just 1,095 yards in 10 games, as Kentucky ranks 121st with 124.1 YPG passing. WR Ali has 49 catches but averages a puny 9.4 YPC with just one TD. No other player has caught more than 14 passes. RBs Rodriguez (701 yards on 6.9 YPC and 9 TDs) and Rose (518 yards on 5.5 YPC and 2 TDs) join QB Wilson (410 yards and five TDs) to give the Wildcats a good ground game (almost 180 YPG). However, Kentucky is averaging just 21.7 PPG (107th). In comparison, the NC State offense is averaging 31.1 PPG (45th), just shy of 10 PPG more than Kentucky. Last year's starting QB Leary began the season with some COVID issues and when he got back on the field, suffered a broken leg in mid-October. Bailey Hockman has taken over and has accounted for 14 touchdowns and thrown just five interceptions in seven games since replacing Leary against Duke. After a 44-41 home OT loss to Miami, NC St finished 4-0 with Hockman throwing seven TDs and three INTs. He has two good RBs to provide balance in Knight (736 yards on 5.6 YPC with nine TDs) and Person (635 yards on 4.5 YPC with four TDs). WRs Emezie, Thomas and Carter have a combined 102 catches with 13 TDs plus TE Angeline has 27 catches and six TDs. I guess the fact that Kentucky plays in the SEC and NC State in the ACC is the reason the Wildcats are favored but I "just don't get it!" The Wildcats have the second-worst offense in the Power Five, lost to SEC finalists Alabama and Florida by a combined score of 97-13 and have two wins in the past 11 weeks against teams that went a combined 2-17). North Carolina' strong finish moved them into the top-25 at No. 23 in the CFP rankings and No. 24 in the AP. Back to Kentucky, it's 0-3 vs ranked teams this season (Ala, Fla & Ga), scoring a total of just 16 points. Now I'm NOT putting NC St in a class with those SEC powerhouses but just how do the Wolfpack rate as an underdog to this Kentucky team. The Wolfpack's four consecutive victories is the team's best such stretch to end a regular season since 2008. How about FIVE in a row? I think so! Good luck...Larry |
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01-01-21 | Ohio State +7.5 v. Clemson | Top | 49-28 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* Sugar Bowl play (The Rematch) is on Ohio St at 8:00 ET. Ohio St led 16-0 through the first 25 minutes of last season's semi final against Clemson, but Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence and RB Travis Etienne led a comeback that put the Tigers up 29-23. The Buckeyes drove to the Tigers' 23 with a chance to potentially win the game but Justin Fields was intercepted in the end zone with 37 seconds left in the game. Lawrence had 259 passing yards and a touchdown plus 107 yards and a rushing TD, while Etienne had 134 all-purpose yards and three TDs. According to Ohio St head coach Ryan Day, that loss has reverberated for nearly a year among the Buckeyes. "Fresh off of that game, it was right on our minds, and something that when we got back to work and winter workouts, January, February, it was right there for us," Day said Sunday. "Coming off that game, we just didn't get over it in one day. It took time. "There was even a sign with the score posted in the Buckeyes' weight room , an honor usually reserved for rival Michigan. The Big Ten decided to postpone its season on August 11, while the ACC said 'full steam ahead.' The Big Ten eventually reversed course and returned in late October but was left with a 'short' season and no margin for error. The Buckeyes were unable to play the six games they needed to be eligible but NATURALLY, the Big Ten changed that rule and Ohio St won a unimpressive 22-10 victory over Northwestern in the Big Ten title game. However, if you had paid attention to the CFP committee throughout the weekly ranking process, there was NO way the Buckeyes were NOT making the 'Final 4.' Leave it to Dabo to defend the 'honor' of the ACC and SEC. Swinney said he felt the six-game resume of Ohio State put the Buckeyes on a different playing field than many of the other contenders. Swinney backed up his feelings by ranking the Buckeyes No. 11 in the final coaches' poll of the season. In his own words. "I think any time you step in between the lines, the game of football, there's a lot that can happen. A lot," Swinney said. "I mean, heck, in 2017, we lost to a three-win or four-win Syracuse team and still went to the playoffs. So anything can happen. Guys can get hurt. There's a lot. So I think the fact that we're going to have 11 games as well as the SEC teams -- I mean, you look at Florida and Texas A&M and Alabama. I mean, these teams are going to have 11 games this year. It's incredible and I think the Big Ten had the same opportunity and they chose not to play, and I think the only reason they ended up playing is because of the leadership of the SEC and the ACC and the Big 12, and have demonstrated that we can do it and do it in a safe way. So it's been an unbelievably challenging season, that's for sure. Enough said. ALL of what Swinney said is true but I can't see how ranking Ohio St No. 11 helps his team. Lawrence's record speaks for itself (34-1 as a starter) but after throwing 66 TDs and just 16 INTs in his first two seasons, his ratio was 22-7 in 2020 (missed two games). Also, what's up with Etienne? He ran for more than 1,600 yards in each of the previous two seasons but had just 882 yards in 2020. Ohio State's Justin Fields has completed 72.6% for 1,521 with 15 TDs and five INTs in six games plus RBs Sermon (675 yards on 8.0 YPC) and Teague (449 yards on 5.0 YPC) give Ohio St plenty of offensive balance. Looking strictly at the numbers, Ohio St and Clemson are clones. Ohio St averages 44.9 PPG (Clemson 42.5) and allows 17.5 PPG (Clemson 21.0). That said, Clemson has played the tougher AND more challenging schedule (11 games to six) and one HAS to admit that Fields' worst two games came against Ohio St's toughest opponents, Indiana and Northwestern. I've never been one to pay too much attention to "bulletin board" motivation like Dabo ranking Ohio St 11th but Ohio St has waited an entire year for a rematch with Clemson and couldn't possibly have more to prove in this game. I will GLADLY take the points! Good luck...Larry |
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01-01-21 | Cincinnati v. Georgia -6.5 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -112 | 24 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Eye Opener is on Georgia at 12:00 ET. Cincinnati won the American Athletic Conference championship game in a squeaker (27-24 over Tulsa), to finish the regular season 9-0. After Notre Dame was soundly defeated by Clemson in the Atlantic Coast Conference championship game, there was talk that maybe the Bearcats were deserving of finishing among the top -our teams in the CFP. The 9-0 Bearcats finished No. 8. 10-1 Notre Dame (No. 4) and 8-1 Texas A&M (No. 5) finishing ahead of Cincy was not really a surprise but when the Bearcats also fell behind 8-2 Oklahoma (No. 6) and 8-3 Florida (No. 7) it became clear that the committee NEVER considered them a 'Final 4' option. As the top-ranked Group of 5 school, Cincy got a New Year's Six Bowl bid to the Peach Bowl, where it will meet a 7-2 Georgia team that finished No. 9 in the final rankings. Georgia was the AP's preseason No. 4 team but the Bulldogs lost BADLY in both of their "biggest" tests in 2020, losing 41-24 at Alabama and 44-28 in Jacksonville to Florida. Yes, the Bearcats enter the game with a 'chip on their shoulders,' but DON'T make the mistake of thinking Georgia DOESN'T have anything to play for (prove) in this game. The Bearcats are led by QB Desmond Ridder, the AAC offensive player of the year. He's completing 66.4% for 2,090 passing yards, with 17 TDs and six INTs. He has also rushed for 609 yards (7.2 YPC) and a team-high 12 scores. Gerrid Doaks has rushed for a team-high 673 yards (4.7 YPC / 7 TDs), as the Bearcats rank 14th with 225.0 YPG on the ground. The offense has averaged 39.3 PPG (15th) but it's Cincy's defense which is the standout unit. The Bearcats allow 16.0 PPG (8th) on 314.4 YPG (13th). Speaking of defense, most pundits claimed Georgia owned the nation's finest defense as the 2020 season got underway. However, as noted above, that defense was NOT able to contain either Alabama (41 points) or Florida (44 points) but this just in, those are two SPECTACULAR offensive teams. Including those two poor efforts, Georgia finished the regular season allowing 19.9 PPG (21st) on 322.8 YPFG (15th). Georgia expected Wake Forest transfer Jamie Newman would lead the offense in 2020 but he opted out prior to the start of the year. JT Daniels (a USC transfer) was coming off an injury and his rehab plus COVID issues kept him on the sidelines until late in the season. However, he's led Georgia to THREE straight wins, throwing for 839 yards with nine TDs and just one INT (Bulldogs averaged 41.6 PPG in that span). I'm a big fan of Cincy head coach Luke Fickell who said this about playing in a New Year's six Bowl game, "It's huge for our program. If you want to claim you deserve an opportunity or a shot, this is an opportunity, this is a shot." However, this is the FIFTH consecutive year under head coach Kirby Smart that the Bulldogs will play in a New Year's Six Bowl or the CFP. "I'll be honest, when your intention is to win the game, that's not going to change between his guys and your guys," Smart said. "Every coach is going to try to find an angle that gives their guys an edge or competitive advantage, whether that's them being ranked ahead of us or whatever. I don't know Group of Five, Power 5, all those languages, that's for (media). My language is football, and they've got a good team. They haven't been beaten." Here's the bottom line. I don't believe Cincy is a top-10 team. One can say the Bearcats beat three ranked teams this season but that trio is comprised of Army, SMU and Tulsa. That's not exactly a 'Murderer's Row" of football powers. Getting back to the Georgia defense, taking away the Alabama and Florida games, it allowed 13 PPG on 253 YPG. Including all foes, Georgia led the nation in allowing just 69.3 YPPG on 2.3 YPC. If Ridder and the Cincy offense can't establish the run, the Bearcats will be in for L-O-N-G day. That's my bet. Lay it. Good luck...Larry |
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12-29-20 | Oklahoma State v. Miami-FL +2.5 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -105 | 47 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" 37-Club Play is on Miami-Fl at 5:30 ET. The 7-3 Oklahoma State Cowboys take on the 8-2 Miami Hurricanes in the Cheez-It Bowl on Dec 29 in Orlando, Fl. OSU is ranked 21st in the CFP rankings but is unranked in the AP, after opening the season 15th in the preseason poll. Miami was NOT ranked in the AP's preseason poll (coming off a 6-7 season, including an 'ugly' 14-0 bowl loss to La Tech) but enters the game ranked 18th in both the AP and CFP. I've believed all season that Oklahoma St has been overrated. Mike Gundy always gets the Cowboys into a bowl game (this marks the 15th straight bowl appearance for OSU under Gundy) but there's been a slippage in his offense the last two seasons. OSU averaged 39.5 PPG in 2015, 38.6 PPG in 2016, 45.0 PPG in 2017 and 38.4 PPG in 2018. The 2019 season saw OSU average 32.5 PPG, despite RB Chuba Hubbard rushing for 2,094 yards (6.4 YPC) and 21 TDs. He was a unanimous All-America selection last season but he's looked disinterested all season (just 625 yards on 4.7 PPC with 5 TDs!) and decided to opt out earlier this month to prepare for the NFL draft (which 'lucky' team will land this gem?). OSU's offense fell under 30 PPG in 2020 (29.5), led by the overrated Spencer Sanders. He's thrown for a modest 1,702 yards with a TD/INT ratio of just 10-8. He's rushed for 244 yards with only two TDs. He's a two-year starter who has 19 INTs in 19 games! Just what am I missing? Lining up opposite Sanders is a true dual-threat QB in Miami's D'Eriq King, who has passed for 2,573 yards with 22 TDs and just five interceptions, while rushing for 520 yards (4.3 YPC) and four TDs. Miami recently received some great news in that King announced that he will return for his 6th season of college football with the 'Canes. WR Mike Harley (49 catches / 14.9 YPC / 6 TDs) is King's biggest playmaker plus TEs Brevin Jordan and Will Mallory (both considered NFL prospects) have combined for 48 catches and nine TDs. Oklahoma State's defense is allowing 22.4 PPG (32nd) but in its three losses, gave up 41 points to both Texas and Oklahoma and 29 points to TCU and in a win over Texas Tech (a 4-6 team), allowed 44 points. Miami got some bad news when both star DEs, Jaelan Phillips and Quincy Roche, said they were skipping the bowl game to prepare for the draft. Miami gave up 104 points in its losses to Clemson and North Carolina, two of the nation's most prolific offenses. However, in Miami's eight wins, the 'Canes allowed just 19.5 PPG. I'm pretty confident that Sanders has NOTHING in common with Clemson's Lawrence (22-4 ratio and 7 rush TDs) or North Carolina's Howell (27-6 ratio and 5 TDs). In last season's Independence Bowl, Miami lost 14-0 to La Tech, becoming the first Power 5 school to be shut out by a Group of 5 school in a bowl game since the BCS/CFP era began in 1998. If Miami needs more motivation, how about bouncing back from its season-ending 66-26 loss to North Carolina (at home, no less). UNC gained 778 yards of total offense, the most yards Miami has ever allowed. RBs Michael Carter and Javonte Williams combined for 544 rushing yards, the most combined rushing yards by two teammates in FBS history, and five TDs. Miami wins this HANDILY! Good luck...Larry |
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12-26-20 | Liberty +7 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* Bowl Rivalry Game of the Year is on Liberty at 7:30 ET. The Liberty Flames have posted their best regular season in school history (9-1) and look to finish with a second consecutive bowl win against Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers have made history this year as well, completing the first unbeaten regular season in school and SBC history (8-0). These two both played in the Big South Conference (FCS) and have split their 14 meetings. The teams were scheduled to play on Dec 5 but the game was canceled due to COVID-19 protocols and precautions in the Flames' program. The Flames beat Georgia Southern in last year's Cure Bowl and were the third FBS team to win a bowl in their first season at the top level. As for Coastal Carolina, the Chanticleers will make their first bowl appearance in school history. Hugh Freeze's Flames are led by QB Malik Willis, who has thrown for 2,040 yards with 20 TDs and just four INTs. He has added 807 yards rushing (tops on the team), averaging 6.7 YPC with 10 more TDs. A trio of RBs have combined for 1,628 rushing yards and 13 TDs, as the team ranks 8th with 252.2 YPG on the ground (5.7 YPC). A trio of WRs have caught 82 passes, averaged 14.4 YPC and have 10 TD receptions. The offense is averaging 38.3 PG (17th) and the defense allows 19.2 PPG (17th) on 301.2 YPG (7th). What a job Jamey Chadwell has done in just his third season (Chanticleers were 3-9 and 5-7 in his first two). Coastal has dual-threat QB as well in redshirt freshman Grayson McCall, who ranks 36th nationally in total offense with 2,643 yards. He's thrown for 2,170 yards (23 TDs / 2 INTs) and run for 473 yards (4.9 YPC / 6 TDs). RB Marable hasn't quite matched last season's numbers but has run for 84 yards on 5.2 YPC with 12 TDs (has 30 catches from another 7 TDs). Coastal runs for 22.32 YPG (15th). WR Heilegh (52 catches / 15.8 YPC 10 TDs) and TE Likely (25 catches / 20.7 YPC / 4 TDs) are McCall's main guys. The offense averages 37.5 PPG (18th) and the defense gives up 18.7 PPG (15th) on 340.7 YPG (26th). Go back and check at the two teams' offense and defensive numbers and you'll see mirror images. Liberty's only loss came 15-14 at NC St, when it had a 39-yard field goal attempt blocked with 1:18 remaining in the game. Liberty is 8-2 ATS on the season and enters on a SEVEN-game ATS winning streak. Coastal Carolina is 8-2-1 ATS so again, it's hard to find too much difference in the teams. It was Liberty with the COVID-related problems that caused the Dec 5 to be canceled and the Flames haven't played since a 45-0 shutout of UMass on Nov 27. However, it was Coastal with the COVID issue which canceled its SBC championship game vs ULL on Dec 19, less than 48 hours before the scheduled kickoff. Chadwell said players in quarantine could be cleared by midweek prior to the bowl. We will see. These old Big South rivals should go toe-to-toe here and I want the points. Good luck...Larry |
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12-23-20 | Florida Atlantic +9 v. Memphis | Top | 10-25 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
My CFB 9* Late-Breaker (Montgomery Bowl) is on FAU at 7:00 ET. The Montgomery Bowl (7-3 Memphis vs 5-3 FAU) was created after the cancellation of the Fenway Bowl. Memphis was 12-1 when it made a New Year's Six bowl appearance in last year's Cotton Bowl. The Tigers 'hung around' but eventually lost 53-39 to Penn St. Memphis will set a school record by playing in a bowl game for the seventh straight year. This Montgomery Bowl appearance vs FAU may feel like a 'step down' for Memphis but as I will allude to a bit later, the Tigers are desperate for a bowl win. This is the third bowl game in four years for the Owls and fifth since 2007. It's their first bowl outside Florida since 2008. The Tigers are led by QB Brady White, who is capping a terrific career. He's thrown for 3,096 yards with 28 TDs and nine INTs in 2020, following seasons of 4,014 yards with 33 TDs and 11 INTs in 2019 and 3,296 yards with 26 TDs and nine INTs in 2018. His "go-to" guy is WR Austin (60 catches / 17.1 YPC / 10 TDs), although the running game is fairly mediocre, averaging 142.0 YPG (85th). The defense has been a liability all season, allowing 29.7 PPG (contributing to the team's 3-7 ATS record). FAU has a non-existent passing game (143.6 YPG ranks 117th) but a solid running game which averages 185.3 YPG (47th). However, the Owls own a solid defense, allowing 16.5 PPG (9th) on 326.4 YPG. Containing White will be a key for FAU and its pass D comes in allowing 175.6 YPG (12th in the nation). As noted above, Memphis NEEDS a bowl win, as the Tigers haven't gotten one since a double-overtime victory over BYU in the 2014 Miami Beach Bowl. That's not all, as a check of the record book reveals that Memphis is on a 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS run in its last eight conference championship or bowl games. Meanwhile, FAU is 6-0 SU & ATS in similar contests. I'm taking the BIG points! Good luck...Larry |
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12-23-20 | Georgia Southern v. Louisiana Tech +6.5 | Top | 38-3 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 19 m | Show |
My CFB 10* New Orleans Bowl play is on La Tech at 3:00 ET. 7-5 Georgia Southern of the SBC will take on 5-4 Louisiana Tech of C-USA in Wednesday's New Orleans Bowl at the Superdome. This will be Georgia Southern's FOURTH bowl since moving up from the Football Championship Subdivision in 2014. The Eagles won postseason games in 2015 and 2018 before falling last year 23-16 to Liberty in the Cure Bowl. As for La Tech, securing a winning record for 2020 plus keeping its bowl streak alive, are on the line for the Bulldogs. How many are aware that Louisiana Tech's SIX-game bowl winning streak is the longest active mark for ANY team in the country. Both teams come in with questions surrounding their QB situation. Shai Werts was the regular Georgia Southern QB for 10 games, but he missed the last two games with a shoulder injury. Justin Tomlin has started the last two but he departed the Dec 12 regular-season finale against Appalachian State with a second-quarter injury after rushing for 76 yards in the game. Miller Mosley, who's considered the team's third-string QB, threw for a touchdown and two interceptions after replacing Tomlin. Werts has accounted for 1,575 yards and 15 TDs from scrimmage and leads the Eagles in rushing with 649 yards, as Georgia Southern ranks 7th in the nation averaging 262.4 YPG. That shoulder injury has sidelined him for the team's last two games, but he has returned to practice and could play in the bowl game. Georgia Southern's defense is solid, allowing 22.3 PPG (31st) on 333.5 YPG (19th). La Tech reached 10 wins in 2019 for the first time since 1983 but KNEW it would miss QB J'Mar Smith, who threw for 2,977 yards (18/5 ratio) and ran for 4 TDs as a senior. He ended his career winning his final 10 starts. His replacement was expected to be either sophomore Aaron Allen or Abilene Christian transfer, Luke Anthony. Anthony started for most of the season but severely injured his lower right leg when he was tackled late in the fourth quarter last Saturday in a blowout loss to TCU. Allen will get the start here and "on paper," this figures to be a tough matchup for the Bulldogs. La Tech has a non-existent rushing attack (97.7 YPG on the ground ranks 119th) and Anthony is a superior QB than Allen. However, La Tech finds a way into the end zone, averaging 29.3 PPG on the season, despite its 10-point effort vs TCU. The defense is another story, allowing 34.3 PPG (95th). Here's the bottom line! Skip Holtz is finishing up his eighth season at La Tech. He went just 4-8 in his first season but 2020 marks the SEVENTH consecutive season in which he's led the Bulldogs to a bowl game. As noted above, the Bulldogs have won EACH of the previous six. In last season's Independence Bowl, La Tech beat Miami-Florida 14-0, becoming the first Group of 5 school to shut out a Power-5 school in a bowl game since the BCS/CFP era began in 1998. What's more, Louisiana Tech has not lost to a current Sun Belt Conference opponent since 1996, winning 18 in a row! You really want to give this team about a TD? Good luck...Larry |
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12-22-20 | Central Florida v. BYU -3.5 | Top | 23-49 | Win | 100 | 55 h 50 m | Show |
 My 10* "Bowl Kickoff' is on BYU at 7:00 ET. Josh Heupel was named head coach of the UCF Knights on December 5, 2017, replacing the departing Scott Frost, who had led UCF to a perfect 13-0 season in 2017. Heupel continued the 'magic' in 2018, as UCF took a 12-0 record (AND a 25-game winning streak) into its Sugar Bowl game with LSU, where the Tigers snapped that win streak with a 40-32 victory (coming out party for Joe Burrow). UCF followed with a 10-3 season in 2019 but enters Tuesday's bowl game with amore modest record of 6-3. BYU head coach Kalani Sitake took over at Provo back in 2016. The Cougars went 9-4 in his first season, capping the year with a win in the Poinsettia Bowl. However, BYU followed with a 4-9 bowl-less 2017 campaign and in 2018, only the team's win in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl allowed them to finish above .500 at 7-6. Sitake was feeling some 'heat' from the BYU "faithful" in 2019 after a 2-4 start but a five-game winning streak made BYU 7-4 bowl eligible and Sitake was rewarded with a contract extension through 2023. However, the Cougars lost their regular season final 13-3 at SD State and then lost the Hawaii Bowl to Hawaii 34-30, finishing at 7-6 again. Entering 2020, some of those BYU "faithful" who were questioning that extension. CF opened 2-0 but then lost back-to-back games to Tulsa and Memphis. UCF rebounded to win THREE in a row but lost 36-33 at home to Cincy before finishing with a 58-46 win at USF. QB Gabriel is completing 61.7% for 2,353 yards with 30 TDs and just four INTs, while RBs McCrae (681 yards on 5.2 YPC with 9 TDs) and Anderson (614 yards on 5.6 YPC and four TDs) lead a running game averaging 212.6 YPG (). WR Williams (71 catches / 8 TDs) and Robinson (61 catches / 5 TDs) are both dangerous receivers. The offense averages 44.3 PPG (5th) on 585.6 YPG (5th) but the defense allows 31.4 PPG (78th) on 473.7 YPG (117th). It didn't take long for Sitake to quiet the naysayers, as BYU rolled through a patchwork schedule but at 9-0 and ranked 8th in the AP poll, BYU found themselves just 14th in the first CFP rankings on Nov 24. The CFP selection committee made it clear in each of its first two rankings that BYU's weak schedule was keeping it outside the top-10, so BYU worked hard to schedule a "quality" opponent and got that chance on Dec 5 when it was able to replace Liberty as Coastal Carolina's opponent on Saturday, after COVID-19 issues prevented the Flames from playing in the game. However, the Cougars were held to season lows in points and yards (405) in a 22-17 loss. BYU ended its regular season on Dec 12 with a 28-14 home win over SD State to finish 10-1, ranked 13th (AP) and 16th (CFP). QB Zach Wilson has been TERRIFIC, completing 73.2% for 3,267 yards with 30 TDs and just three INTs (his QB rating of 194.8 ranks second to only Alabama's Mac Jones). RB Allgeier has 957 yards on 7.3 YPC with 12 TDs plus BYU has four players with 32 or more catches. WR Milne leads with 63 (8 TDs) and WR Romney has 38 and leads the team averaging 19.9 YPC. WR Pau'u has 40 catches and while TE Rex has a modest 32, he has a team-high 10 TD receptions. BYU's offense is basically as prolific as UCF's, averaging 43.0 PPG (6th) on 512.2 YPG (8th). However, its defense is leaps and bounds better, allowing 14.6 PPG (3rd) 309.0 YPG (9th). Doing the math BYU is allowing about 17 PPG and 170 YPG less than UCF. One can talk all it wants about BYU's 'soft' schedule but UCF has lost to the three-best teams it has played this season (Cincy, Tulsa and Memphis), with its "best win" coming over 6-5 Tulane. The other five wins have come over teams with a combined record of 11-31 (,262). Talk about a 'phoney' team! Lay the points! Good luck...Larry |
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12-19-20 | Alabama v. Florida +17.5 | Top | 52-46 | Win | 100 | 38 h 31 m | Show |
My 9* is on Florida at 8:00 ET. Did Florida's hopes at qualifying for the College Football Playoff 'die' with its shocking 37-34 upset at the hands of LSU in "The Swamp" last Saturday. Florida ran up 609 yards of total offense but offset that with three crucial turnovers, including a pick-six. As for Florida's defense, it gave up 418 yards to a team whose QB was making his first career start. Naturally, Marco Wilson's 'fateful toss' of opposing TE Kole Taylor's footwear 20 yards downfield to celebrate a third-down stop late last week drew ALL of the attention and while it was a "stupid play," there was plenty of blame to go around. While Florida was 'gagging' as a 24-point favorite, Alabama rolled to a 52-3 win at Arkansas, completing its season at 10-0. No. 1 Alabama (AP and CFP) is trying to secure a return to the College Football Playoff after missing out last season for the first time since the four-team postseason format began in 2014. The Crimson Tide may qualify even with a loss, since no other team in the SEC has fewer than two defeats. Florida likely squandered its chance to get into the playoff with a stunning setback to LSU last weekend, but the Gators are still in position to claim their first SEC title since 2008. This will be the 10th time the teams have met in the SEC championship game, with Alabama holding a 5-4 edge. However, the Crimson Tide have won the last SIX meetings against the Gators and Florida coach Dan Mullen is 0-9 in his career against Alabama's Nick Saban. Alabama is an offensive juggernaut, averaging 49.5 PPG (3rd) on 537 YPG (5th). QB Mac Jones may (should?) be the Heisman favorite, as he's completed 76.4% of his passes for 3,321 yards with 27 TDs and just three INTs (QB rating of 203.9 ranks No. 1). RB Harris has 1,084 yards and 22 TDs), while WR Smith (83 catches with 15 TDs) is arguably the best WR in the nation. The Alabama defense looked 'shaky' in the early part of the season but over its last six games, has allowed just 8.8 PPG ('Bama has covered its last SEVEN games!). Florida does not have RB to match Harris and while TE Pitts (11 TDs, despite missing significant time) and WR Toney (62 catches / 9 TDs) are both "big time' receivers, Florida's receiving corps can't quite match Alabama's group. However, QB Kyle Trask has had a season comparable to Jones, completing 70.2% for 3,717 yards with 40 TDs and just five INTs. He had THREE first-half TOs in the loss to LSU (including throwing that pick-six), so he's got MUCH to prove in this game. Florida's defense allows 26.3 PPG, which is fine when one's offense is averaging 41.2 PPG (8th), but can the Gators match the Tide score-for-score? Maybe I'm 'spitting into the wind' with this pick but I just believe the Gators will bring their "A-game" to this contest off of last week's embarrassment. Will it be good enough to beat Alabama? I doubt it but it should be good enough for Florida bettors to 'CA$H!' Good luck...Larry |
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12-19-20 | Boise State -6 v. San Jose State | Top | 20-34 | Loss | -112 | 34 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* Championship Game of the Month is on Boise St at 4:15 ET. Boise St is 5-1 (5-0 in MWC) and is once again in the MWC championship game. The Broncos' FB dominance began back in 1999 (Big West), then moved to the WAC from 2002-2010 and has continued in the MWC since 2011. Boise entered the 2020 season with an all-time winning percentage of .731, the highest in all of collegiate football. Waiting for the Broncos in Las Vegas is San Jose St, which is just two years removed from a 1-11 campaign. However, it's the 6-0 Spartans who enter this game as the ranked team at No. 25 in the AP poll (last time in the AP's top-25 was 2012) and at No. 24 in the CFP standings, are ranked for the very first time. The Spartans are 6-0 for the first time since 1939, when that team went unbeaten in 13 contests. QB Hank Bachmeier had a solid freshman season in 2019 and despite missing TWO of the team's six games in 2020, enters completing 66.1% for 929 yards with six TDs and two INTs. Shakir is his top target (46 catches / 8 TDs) but Thomas is averaging 18.9 YPC on his 17 catches with two TDs. RB Van Buren leads with 356 yards rushing (8 TDs) and while the Broncos' ground game is averaging only 123.0 YPG (108th), Boise St has averaged 36.2 PPG (21st). That goes pretty good with a defense that's allowed 26.0 PPG (46th) on 352.7 YPG (33rd). San Jose St QB Nick Starkel (previously played at Texas A&M and Arkansas) is completing 66.3% for 1,453 yards with 13 TDs and four INTs. His main targets are WRs Gaither (36 catches / 17.4 YPC / 4 TDs) and Walker (31 catches / 3 TDs) plus TE Deese has just 17 catches but 4 TDs. Tyler Nevers (454 yards on 8.9 YPC (5 TDs) leads a running game averaging 159.8 YPG on 5.0 YPC. San Jose St averages 30.3 PPG (49th) and its defense has been excellent, allowing 17.5 PPG (13th) on 355.7 YPG (34th). Will San Jose St's 'Cinderella' season continue with a win here, as the Spartans play in their first-ever MWC title game? The program last had a winning record in 2012 and head coach Brian Brennan had an 8-29 mark with the Spartans before this season. In contrast, Boise State is trying to win its FOURTH Mountain West title game as the Broncos make their fourth-consecutive appearance in the game and fifth overall. You may have noticed that the ranked team (San Jose St) is about a TD underdog and could that be because Boise St takes a 14-game conference winning streak into Saturday's game? Then again, maybe it's because the Broncos have won each of the 14 all-time meetings between the two schools (SIX of the wins have come by at least 35 points!)? Series history and Boise St's FB dominance the two decades counts for something. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry |
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12-19-20 | Air Force v. Army +3 | Top | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Game of the Week is on Army at 3:00 ET. The Air Force Falcons and Army Black Knights meet Saturday at Michie Stadium. Air Force trounced Navy 40-7 way back on Oct 3, while Army beat Navy 15-0 just this past Saturday. That means the winner will receive the coveted Commander-in-Chief's Trophy (established in 1972). Air Force has won the trophy 20 times, Navy 16 and Army just eight (four shared years, with Navy retaining the trophy three times and Air Force once). Air Force's Troy Calhoun is completing his 14th season in 2020 at Colorado Springs, after replacing Fisher DeBerry who retired after 23 years as the Falcons' head coach. He has led the Falcons to 10 bowl appearances in 13 years, including an 11-2 season in 2019, after back-to-back 5-7 seasons in 2017 and 2019. Jeff Monken took over the Army football program in 2014 and after 4-8 and 2-10 seasons, led the Blacks Knights to seasons of 8-5, 10-3 and 11-2 from 2016 through 2018. Each of the seasons were capped by a bowl win The 2017 team tied the school record for most wins in a season when it beat SD State in the Armed Forces Bowl and then the 2018 team broke the school record for wins when it CRUSHED Houston 70-14 in the same bowl the following year. Maybe more importantly, Army beat Navy THREE straight in that span, while capturing the school's first Commander-in-Chief's Trophy since 1996 in 2016, then following up by winning that trophy again in both 2017 and 2018. COVID has allowed Air Force to play just FIVE games in 2020 with the Falcons playing just TWICE since Oct 31. They won 28-0 at home over New Mexico on Nov 20 and 35-7 at Utah St on Dec 3 (New Mexico is a 2-5 team and Utah St a 1-5 one). Air Force is second in the nation with 336.0 YPG on the ground, averaging 5.9 YPC. Its defense has held opponents to 16.0 PPG (8th) on 307.4 YPG (8th). Army has rebounded off a poor 2019 (5-8) to go 8-2 and now plays its 11th game in this "Year of COVID," losing just ONE game of its 12-game schedule to the virus. Army rushes for 280.1 YPG (4th) on 4.8 YPC plus its defense has played even better than Air Force's, allowing 14.7 PPG (4th) on 272.1 YPG (3rd). Air Force has won SEVEN of the last 10 meetings against Army, but this season has had issues playing a consistent schedule and its three wins have come against teams with a combined 6-17 record. Army is 6-1 straight up since October and has held THREE of its last six opponents to single digit points, while pitching two 'shutouts' this season. What's more, since the beginning of 2017, Army is 23-2 SU in its 25 game at Michie Stadium. Note that BOTH losses came during 2019's 5-8 campaign. Army is 7-0 SU at home in 2020. I'll take ANY point available. Go Army! Beat Air Force! Good luck...Larry |
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