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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-24-18 | Grizzlies +8.5 v. Heat | Top | 89-115 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Memphis (#505) Miami is a great underdog; cashing winning bets for my clients and I repeatedly in that role all season long. But when we look at Eric Spoelstra’s squad as a favorite, the pointspread results are downright ugly. At -3 or higher this season – dating back to Day 1 – the Heat are just 3-13 ATS. Betting against Miami in this role has cashed at an 81% clip. Miami plays tight games. Every night. The results don’t lie. Each of their last dozen games has been decided by eight points or less. At home, on the road, as a favorite, as an underdog – it doesn’t seem to matter. Hence the Heat’s consistent results – they cash underdog bets, but struggle mightily in this favorite’s role. To put that in perspective, the Heat haven’t cashed a single winning bet at -3 or higher since January 3rd against (at the time) slumping Detroit. The Heat went balls to the wall in New Orleans last night, losing by a single point in double overtime. The game was extremely intense and fairly physical; tough to recover from without rest on the second night of back-2-backs after a week off. This is not exactly a ‘bet-on’ quote from Eric Spoelstra either, following last night’s crushing loss: "We have to forge ahead regardless of what emotions we're feeling. All these moments can benefit us, and I truly believe they will. We are so close to getting over the hump." The Grizzlies came out of the All Star Break saying all the right things about NOT tanking and trying hard every night. Head coach JB Bickerstaff: "We may have our shortcomings, but our effort and competitive nature are still there." Marc Gasol: “I’m not looking at the standings. I have not looked at the standings in a long time. Obviously, the season is not going the way that we all envisioned. The feeling that you have, you shouldn’t be looking at the standings. You concentrate so much on the day-to-day and just kind of resetting and understanding what you need to do and improve as a player at the same time. You still have a lot that should be enjoyed and a lot you still have to play for, so you still have to improve as a basketball player and work on other stuff.” The markets are reacting to the Tyreke Evans rib injury last night (officially listed as ‘questionable’ here), betting this pointspread up in early action. But Memphis just played five straight games without Evans before the All Star Break, cashing winning bets in competitive games at Indiana, at Detroit and at home against Utah. The Grizz are 5-0 ATS in their last five tries on the second night of back-2-backs; Miami is sub .500 in that role. Bottom line: too many points for a team that can’t lay points! Big Ticket: Take the Grizzlies. |
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01-27-18 | Celtics +10 v. Warriors | Top | 105-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Boston (#509) The numbers don’t lie. Boston has been an underdog of +3 or higher on seven different occasions this season. The Celtics are 7-0 ATS in those games, consistently and repeatedly stepping up in class effectively, particularly on the highway. Golden State at -7 or higher? Just 16-21 ATS, moneylosers as big chalk. The Celtics have given the Warriors fits in every recent meeting. Boston was +7 at home in the first meeting, a game they won 92-88, holding Steph Curry and Klay Thompson to a combined 8-32 shooting. The Celtics won SU on this floor last year, a 99-86 victory as +7 underdogs. They won SU on this floor the previous season as well, as 11 point underdogs. Dating back even further with these Brad Stevens vs. Steve Kerr matchups, the Celtics lost by only three on this floor in 2015 as 18 point underdogs and by only two on this floor in 2014 as 11.5 point dogs. In the last ten meetings between these two teams, the Warriors have won by more than eight points only twice, and both of those games were played in Boston. In five meetings over the last three seasons, the Warriors have a grand total of ONE straight up win in regulation. The Celtics are the best defensive team in the NBA, by a fairly wide margin, allowing just 99.8 points per 100 possessions. Their January numbers are ‘off the charts’ good, holding foes to 95.3 points per 100 possession: 4.5 points BETTER than their elite season long numbers. Let’s not forget that the Celtics literally have an elite defender at every position. Based on the ‘real +/-‘ advanced metric defensive stats, the likes of Terry Rozier, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Al Horford and Aron Baynes all rank among the top players at their respective positions defensively, even with key defender Marcus Smart out tonight. Golden State isn’t covering pointspreads at home these days, a consistently overvalued commodity. In fact, the Warriors have a grand total of ONE pointspread cover on this floor since the last week of December; and that lone cover came by exactly half a point. The Celtics are live to WIN this game in SU fashion, and if they don’t, I expect them to battle the Warriors right down to the wire. Too many points! Big Ticket: Take the Celtics. |
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01-12-18 | Nets +3.5 v. Hawks | Top | 110-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Brooklyn (#807) The Atlanta Hawks have the worst record in the NBA at 11-30. They are returning home off a long road trip; a classic ‘bet-against’ spot. And they are coming home off a rare victory, beating the Nuggets on Wednesday to close out their five game West Coast swing. That’s the key here. Atlanta doesn’t win back-2-back games very often. In fact, off a single victory this season, the Hawks are just 1-9 SU in their next game. Yet they are favorites tonight; needing to win – by margin – in order to cover the pointspread. Given that 10% track record in spots like this one, I have little hesitation fading the Hawks here. The Big Ticket piece of this equation comes from the Brooklyn side. Sure, Atlanta is a ‘bet-against’ team here, but are the Nets worth trusting here? You betcha! The Nets are coming off arguably their worst game of the season, blasted by 34 at home against the Pistons. First, it’s worth noting the spot – the Nets were off two heartbreakers, losing by one in OT to the Raptors and by two to the Celtics. Second, it’s worth noting how the Nets have done off an ugly defeat of late. After getting blasted in New Orleans, they beat the Heat in Miami by 24. After a bad loss to the Kings, they beat the Wizards by 35 in their next game. The Nets have been covering pointspreads as underdogs all year long, 19-9 ATS when catching +3 or higher. They won by 20 on this floor back in December, a wire-2-wire blowout. And from all indications, Brooklyn is a focused ballclub after getting outrebounded by 20 in that ugly loss to Detroit. Nets guard Spencer Dinwiddie, coming off a two point effort immediately following his career high 31 point showing on Monday: “This is our job and we're all here to play basketball. We came out here and laid an egg. That's inexcusable and unacceptable. We're going to look to flush it and play better next time out in Atlanta.” Head coach Kenny Atkinson: “(Detroit) dominated us in every phase of the game. There's not much more to say than that. The message is that we have to go to Atlanta and get this one back. We obviously don't like these types of losses. It hurts your individual pride and competitive spirit." Wrong team favored here! Big Ticket: Take the Nets.. |
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12-12-17 | Hawks +11.5 v. Cavs | Top | 114-123 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Atlanta (#501) The results do not lie. The Cleveland Cavaliers have been lined as double digit favorites of -10 or higher on eight different occasions this year. The Cavs are 0-8 ATS in those ballgames. In 14 previous home games this year, the Cavs have covered the spread exactly twice. Yet the early money has shown for Cleveland, with Tristan Thompson expected to rejoin the lineup (although Kevin Love is very questionable). Thompson will certainly help the Cavs long term, but I’m not expecting him to be an ATS difference maker in his first game back on the floor following an extended absence. Heck, this team has only won four games out of 27 so far this season by 12 points or more, what they’ll need to cover the spread tonight. The Cavs are a clear ‘bet-against’ vs. lesser competition at home in this pointspread range. The Hawks have given the Cavs all kinds of trouble in the first two meetings this season. Atlanta won SU at Cleveland in the first meeting and covered the spread wire-2-wire in a seven point home loss in the rematch – the Cavs have already gotten their ‘revenge’. Atlanta has been excellent off a loss: 5-0 ATS in their last five tries. And they’ve been excellent catching points on the highway – only one of their last eleven road losses has come by more than eleven points. Hawks head coach Mike Budenholzer benched his star point guard Dennis Schroeder down the stretch of the fourth quarter in the Hawks four point loss to the Knicks over the weekend. We’ve seen this happen a handful of times before, and Schroeder tends to bounce back STRONG in situations like this one. No surprise here if the Hawks are the ‘energy’ team this evening in a game where I expect them to battle down to the wire. Big Ticket: Take the Hawks. |
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11-07-17 | 76ers v. Jazz -6.5 | Top | 104-97 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Utah (#714) Joel Embiid is the moral equivalent of Lebron James when it comes to how his team plays when he’s not on the floor. The Cavs have been nothing short of awful in games that LeBron sits in recent seasons, a ‘bet-against’ team all the way without their superstar on the floor. It’s the exact same story in Philly, without the dramatic pointspread adjustment when Embiid doesn’t play. The results do not lie. Over the last two seasons, the 76ers have played like a 50-win team with Embiid on the floor. When Embiid is on the bench, the Sixers have played like a 12 win team. He sat out one previous game here in the new campaign, at Toronto. The 76ers were nine point underdogs in that game. They were down by 17 after the first quarter in a 32 point, non-competitive defeat, their single worst loss of the season. Embiid is sitting tonight, which speaks volumes about how the coaching staff is viewing this West Coast road trip – they’ve got a winnable game against the Kings up next, followed by a ‘statement’ game against Golden State, then the two LA teams at the Staples Center. This team has won four straight, in anything BUT a ‘max intensity’ spot tonight. Utah throttled Philly in both meetings last year, winning by 17 at home and by 25 on the road. Embiid sat for one of those meetings and was limited to 19 minutes due to foul trouble in the other as the likes of Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors dominated the low post for the Jazz. Those matchup edges for Utah in the paint haven’t been altered in the offseason. And the Jazz are in a ‘circle the wagons’ spot off back-2-back losses, including a dismal 137-110 blowout loss at Houston over the weekend. We’ve seen the Jazz bounce back well before – their lone previous two game skid ended with back-2-back 15 point blowout wins. Quin Snyder’s squad is a perfect 4-0 ATS as home chalk this season, an emerging trend worth noting. And from all indications, the Jazz have this game circled after getting bombed by the Rockets. The Jazz hadn’t allowed an opponent to shoot better than 53.5% from the floor against them since last February, but they’ve allowed that in each of their last two games. Wing Joe Ingles: “It’s pretty hard to forget. That [expletive] was embarrassing, really.” Coach Snyder: “You just have to refocus and be solid. We weren’t disciplined. There’s always slippage throughout the season. We had some slippage last night and got our tails kicked by one of the best offensive teams in the league. You learn from it. We don’t ignore or forget about it.” The quote that stands out the most is this one, from center Ekpe Udoh following that loss to Houston: “It was a letdown. Next time we’ll be ready.” I concur! Big Ticket: Take the Jazz. |
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04-24-17 | Wizards +2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 101-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Washington (#519) I want the Wizards off a bad loss, like the one they suffered in Game 3 on Saturday. The Wiz weren’t ready from the get-go, trailing by 18 points after the first quarter and never cutting the lead to single digits thereafter. Let’s not forget that Washington is 5-1 ATS in their last six tries off a double digit defeat. Nor should we forget that the Wizards are 5-1 SU against the Hawks since last November, consistently taking care of business against Mike Budenholzer’s squad. The Wizards haven’t even played a good game yet in this series. John Wall has been the best player on the floor for either squad. But the Wizards supporting cast – most notably Otto Porter, Bradley Beal and Markieff Morris – are a combined 48-124 shooting in the series, under 39%. Their bench has been every bit as cold, a combined 27-70 (38%) from the floor. And the three point shooting has been even worse, with Porter, Beal, Morris and the bench combining to hit only 17-72 (23%) from downtown. Washington is a very good offensive team, and they’ve hung 109+ in two of the first three games despite that woeful shooting. Markieff Morris, following the Game 3 loss: “We’re missing wide open shots. We must have had, like, 30 of them in the first half alone. It seemed like our legs were heavy or something. It was one of those days. We’ll bounce back. I’m not taking nothing away from them, but we’re better than that.” John Wall agreed: “We had a lot of great looks, a lot of missed shot. We have to be better.” Here’s Wizards head coach Scott Brooks, talking about Bradley Beal: “You know what? I like his looks. I’ve been saying it for the last couple of games. I like his shots. He’s just going to have to keep shooting them. We’re going to have to keep getting him open looks like we have. Every player will go through a stretch of games, a few games, where you’re not going to shoot the ball well. He’ll bounce back.” The Wizards were -13 in Porter’s 24 minutes on Saturday, -17 in Morris’s 29 minutes and -22 in Gortat’s 29 minutes while all there members of the Hawks starting frontcourt were at +22 or higher; basically the exact opposite of what we saw in the first two games of this series. Conceptually, the Wiz are primed to shoot better tonight and the Hawks frontcourt is not primed to dominate at the same level. My pre-series opinion that the Wizards were the better of these two teams hasn’t changed one bit, and this is a ‘Grade A’ spot for the road underdog. Big Ticket: Take the Wizards. |
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04-15-17 | Bucks v. Raptors -7 | Top | 97-83 | Loss | -103 | 30 h 41 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Toronto (#504) I don’t put too much emphasis on regular season games, but this season series is worth noting. The Raptors played the Bucks three times with a healthy Kyle Lowry. They went 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in those games, including a pair of comfortable wins in Toronto by 22 and 16 points. I don’t put too much emphasis on what happened last year, but the Raptors playoff run is worth noting. Toronto lost Game 1 at home in the first round as seven point favorites against Indiana. Then lost Game 1 at home in the second round as four point favorites against Miami. Toronto went on to win both of those series in seven games, but they had little left in the tank for their Eastern Conference Finals matchup against the Cavs. I’m expecting a particularly focused effort from the home favorite in Game 1 this time around. And when Toronto comes with a focused effort, this team is borderline elite. Make no mistake about it — this year’s Raptors team is a good notch or two better than last year’s squad. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan both enter the playoffs with far less wear and tear on their bodies than they had a season ago; a notable difference from last year. The toughness and veteran playoff savvy of Serge Ibaka and PJ Tucker cannot be overestimated in comparison to last year’s squad, a team that came up just two wins short of their first-ever trip to the NBA Finals. Let’s be real about this - Toronto is consistently overlooked by the mainstream US audience. They’re not on TV —ever. The Bucks have the young superstar with the cool nickname — Greek Freak — while the Raptors continue to suffer from at least a modest branding problem. That creates a notch or two’s worth of extra value when this team is good, like they’ve been in recent seasons — it really does. The results don’t lie. The Raptors were a Top 5 ATS team this year and they were a Top 5 ATS team last year.Milwaukee has one unsolvable matchup problem against Toronto; a problem that isn’t going to go away. The Bucks are not bulky and physical in the paint. They are a miserable rebounding team — only the Mavericks had a lower rebound rate on misses than Milwaukee this year. Since picking up Tucker and Ibaka at the trading deadline, the Raptors have been a Top 5 team in rebounding margin. That means extra possessions for a focused home favorite. Big Ticket: Take the Raptors. |
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04-10-17 | Spurs -4.5 v. Blazers | Top | 98-99 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
Big Ticket: NBA Game of the Month: Take San Antonio (#713) Gregg Popovich, following the Spurs home loss to the Clippers on Saturday: “Our execution at both games, defensively and offensively, was very poor. Nobody's going to rest. Everybody's going to play….There's no back-to-backs. There's no bad travel or anything like that, so it's time for rhythm and that sort of thing. Hopefully we'll play better next week. They were more aggressive than we were. They wanted the game more. We were aggressive, got into them and showed the physicality and communication necessary to win against a good team for about six minutes of the third quarter, and that was that. We didn't have enough physical toughness to compete with them." That, folks, is a Hall of Fame head coach calling out his team two games before the playoffs start, on the heels of a home loss to the Lakers earlier in the week. And when Pops calls his team out in a spot like this, I’m all ears, a coach with a proven track record of getting his players to respond appropriately to his message. Expect a focused, concerted effort from the road favorite this evening. The Blazers just concluded a frenetic, furious run to the postseason, clinching the #8 seed with Denver’s loss last night. The Blazers are 16-5 SU since March 1st and 9-1 ATS in their last ten games overall, including a 7-0 SU and ATS run here in Portland. But after clinching last night, expect head coach Terry Stotts to manage his minutes very carefully tonight, most notably in regards to backcourt mates Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, both of whom rank in the Top 16 in minutes played per game this season. And make no mistake about it – the Blazers are NOT the same team without injured center Jusuf Nurkic in the lineup. Nurkic had an instant impact when he arrived from Denver at the trading deadline – just when Portland started to make their run. Since he got hurt, the Blazers have lost the rebounding battle in five straight games. They were bailed out by a 59 point effort by Lillard against Utah over the weekend, on a night where his teammates combined to produce only 42 points between them. Don’t expect another Lillard bailout tonight in a game worthy of Big Ticket status. Big Ticket: Take the Spurs. |
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03-29-17 | Heat -3 v. Knicks | Top | 105-88 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Miami (#507) It’s not hard to make a case for betting ON the Miami Heat. After all, Miami is 25-8 SU in their last 33 games, the single best ‘turnaround’ story in the NBA this season, fighting hard for the final playoff spot in the East. Head coach Eric Spoelstra: "Our guys want this so bad. They really care about each other. They've developed such a strong bond. Guys really love each other. They want to play well for each other. It's bigger than just themselves….We feel like there's something special with this group, but nothing's guaranteed. We believe in that energy and that karma. We believe that because we went through so many frustrating games at the end that it developed some toughness.” The Heat are 10-1 ATS in their last eleven tries on the second night of back-2-backs, a testament to this team’s intestinal fortitude. They’re 5-0 ATS on their last five visits to Madison Square Garden, owning this sorry Knicks squad. And the Heat are 5-0 ATS following at pointspread loss, like the one they suffered in Detroit last night; most assuredly a team worth betting ON in a spot like they’re in tonight. It’s not hard to make a case for betting AGAINST the New York Knicks, especially in a game where they’ll need to win – or come pretty darn close – in order to cash the bet. New York beat Detroit on Monday on a rare hot shooting night, hitting 54% from the floor. ‘Melo, following the win: “It was kind of a ‘must win’ for team morale.” Their last set of back-2-back wins came before Christmas, just 12-33 overall and 6-14 at home since that time. Following their last victory, New York lost by double digits as home favorites against Brooklyn. And coming off a ‘must win for team morale’ I have a hard time believing they can match that intensity tonight. The kicker here – what makes this play worthy of Big Ticket status – is the betting market reaction to the announcement that the Knicks would play both Derrick Rose and Carmelo Anthony tonight, signifying that they supposedly aren’t tanking. But they are tanking! Head coach Jeff Hornacek: “When you're not in the playoffs, everyone looks at the best draft pick you can get. It's hard.” Expect it to be VERY hard for the Knicks to remain competitive in this one for four full quarters. Big Ticket: Take the Heat. |
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02-27-17 | Warriors v. 76ers +14 | Top | 119-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Philadelphia (#506) All the Sixers do is cover pointspreads, the single best ATS team in the NBA this year. Philadelphia is 0-3 ATS as favorites. In their other 55 games, they’re 36-19 ATS, cashing at a 65% clip for the entire season; a consistently undervalued commodity in the betting markets. That hasn’t changed in recent weeks, despite Philly attracting some media attention because they’ve finally stopped losing every game in SU fashion, like they did in each of the last three seasons. And when you talk about undervalued home courts, Philly stands out like a sore thumb. A home court that was essentially worthless for the past three years is producing dividends now. The results don’t lie. Waaaaaaay under the radar, the 76ers are now 9-2 SU, 11-0 ATS in their home games since the calendar turned to 2017; the only losses coming in spread covering fashion by five against Houston and by eight against San Antonio. Philly has only lost four home games by double digit margins all year, three of which came in the first month of the season, when they were still awful. This is a ‘bet-on’ team in every sense of the word. The Warriors don’t take Philadelphia very seriously – they’ve got bigger fish to fry. The Warriors won by 12 at home as 21.5 point favorites in the most recent meeting between the two teams. The Warriors last two trips to Philly have been tight, competitive games, with Golden State winning by three and five points as 16.5 and 15.5 point favorites. I’m not expecting the Warriors ‘A’ game tonight, especially with a much tougher test at Washington on tap for the second night of back-2-backs tomorrow. And this Steve Kerr quote is worth noting as the Warriors head east for this road trip: “Here you go, Golden State, here’s your marquee game against the Spurs on a Saturday night on ABC and it’ll be your eighth game in 12 days with 10,000 miles. Like, it’s insane. So I’ve gotta be very, very careful about our players’ welfare and make sure they’re fresh and not too fatigued. Because we know that can lead to injury.” Expect his concerns about freshness to be a different maker ATS tonight. Big Ticket: Take the 76ers. |
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02-15-17 | 76ers +10.5 v. Celtics | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Philadelphia (#509) My clients and I have been making money with the 76ers for the better part of the last two months. Tonight’s game in Boston stands out as a prime opportunity to catch this undervalued squad in a particularly strong situational spot, worthy of Big Ticket status. Philly has given Boston trouble in both previous meetings this season. In December, the Celtics were -10, but never enjoyed any separation, beating the Sixers by just a single point. It was a similar story in January. Boston was laying -11 in a game they struggled to win by four, needing a big second half rally to do it. The 76ers covered the spread wire-2-wire in both contests. So what’s different about tonight’s game, Boston is in a worse spot! The Celtics are coming home off a successful road trip, winning at Portland, Utah and Dallas to close it out. They’ve got a TV game in Chicago against the Bulls tomorrow, before everybody bolts for the All Star Break. In between, in this major flat spot, they’ll face a team they’ve beaten in every single meeting since 2012. I am NOT expecting the Celtics ‘A’ game here, particularly bad news for a team that has gone 0-8 ATS when laying -8 or higher this year. Big home chalk off a great road trip is NOT the Celtics role! On the other hand, this IS Philly’s role. The Sixers are 0-3 ATS as favorites this year. They are 1-3 ATS as big underdogs of +14 or more, tough road games against elite teams. In Philly’s other 49 games, where they are not favored and not huge underdogs, the 76ers are 32-17 ATS. Yes, they’ve covered the spread nearly two thirds of the time in those games; a consistently undervalued commodity. The betting markets continue to obsess about Joel Embiid’s status (he’s out again tonight). Earlier in the season, the Sixers couldn’t win without Embiid. That was then, this is now. The Sixers just beat the Heat, Hornets and Magic without their center, winning each of those games as an underdog. Philly should have both Jahlil Okafor (probable) and Nerlens Noel to man the low post tonight. 2014 lottery pick Darko Saric is on fire right now, while point guard TJ McConnell is arguably the single most undervalued player in the league. Just like the first two meetings, we can expect another tight contest tonight. Big Ticket: Take the 76ers. |
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02-08-17 | Heat v. Bucks -3 | Top | 106-88 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Milwaukee (#512) Miami is the hottest team in the NBA. If they win tonight, they’ll set the All Time NBA record for longest winning streak by a team with a losing record, currently tied with the 1996-97 Phoenix Suns with 11 consecutive wins. The Heat haven’t lost a single game ATS during this entire span, including six outright underdog victories. And yet I have no hesitation betting against Miami tonight in a play worthy of a Big Ticket sized wager. Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra is concerned, especially after his team did everything they could to blow a double digit second half lead at Minnesota on Monday, a game where the T-wolves defense was truly bottom tier. Spoelstra: “We've gone through just about everything else; how to play with a ridiculously bad record, how to play with adversity, how to play through injuries, how to play without making excuses. Now we have to be able to play to our identity when you're dealing with a little bit of success, and not let human nature sink in.” But human nature ALWAYS sinks in, a clear flat spot for the road underdog. It’s surely worth noting that during this extended winning streak, the Heat have only won three road games. Two came at Brooklyn and at Minnesota, both bottom feeders with dismal defenses. The third came at Chicago when the Bulls were in full-on implosion mode, ‘the worst game we’ve played all year’ according to head coach Fred Hoiberg. This is NOT a battle tested team on the highway, capable of gutting out tough wins. The Bucks have really struggled since the calendar turned to 2017. They went 1-10 SU and ATS in an 11 game span from mid-January through last weekend. But they closed out their West Coast road trip with a big blowout at Phoenix, snapping the skid. They made a deal with Charlotte, acquiring big men Spencer Hawes and Roy Hibbert in the process. And they’ll get Kris Middleton back on the court tonight, a huge momentum boost. The Bucks haven’t played since Saturday, allowing head coach Jason Kidd a rare opportunity to get multiple extended practice sessions in. He’s excited about working his two new big men into the mix: “You look at Hibbert, he protects the rim and offensively he can put it in the basket in the paint. You look at Hawes, he play-makes and he can shoot the three, so he can stretch the defense. Both of those guys know how to play the game the right way." And don’t underestimate the impact of Middleton, the team’s on court leader last year. He finished as the #2 shooting guard in the NBA in real +/- last year, behind only James Harden. Middleton: “I've been practicing the last couple of weeks and haven't thought about my hamstring one bit, which is good. I'm ready to go.” I’m expecting a raucous home crowd and an ‘A+’ level effort from the home team here. Expect Miami’s magical run to finally end tonight. Big Ticket: Take the Bucks. |
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02-03-17 | Bulls +6.5 v. Rockets | Top | 117-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Chicago (#859) My clients and I cashed an easy Big Ticket winner with the Bulls on Wednesday as they went to OKC and beat the Thunder by 28 points as underdogs. And there’s every reason to think that the Bulls are a ‘bet-on’ team again tonight as they continue their road trip in Houston. Let me start with an excerpt from my last write-up in support of Chicago. ‘The Chicago side of the equation screams ‘bet-on’. Every bettor in the world heard about the Bulls locker room meltdown last week, with Dwayne Wade and Jimmy Butler taking potshots at their teammates following an ugly blown lead at home against Atlanta. But from ALL indications – the players, the coaches and the local media – this ‘chemistry crisis’ has been overblown, and things have been just fine in practice and on the court. Clearly, there’s no irreparable fracture in this locker room. Dwayne Wade: “Nothing needs to be repaired. Yeah, we're fine. We come in to play basketball and compete, and we've done a good job of that the last few days, with the exception of the Heat game when we laid a dud. But the last few days have been great competition, so we move on from there." I believe him!” But the betting markets are lagging behind; unwilling to support a Bulls team that has gotten so much negative press of late. This is a value-laden team right now; quite capable of making a little run between now and the All Star Break. It’s surely worth noting that they’ve owned the Rockets, sweeping Houston last year while going 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five meetings. There’s ample reason to fade the slumping Rockets right now as well. The rigors of a brutal scheduling stretch – Houston had 13 court changes over a 14 game span in January, and this is their sixth set of back-2-backs since New Year’s Eve – has taken a toll. Houston is just 5-8 SU in their last 13 games, with seven of those SU losses coming in the role of a favorite. The Rockets, like the Bulls, are not being priced correctly in the betting markets right now. And the situation for Houston is not a good one. They were coasting with a 20 point lead with just over eight minutes left in the fourth quarter last night, before a 36-11 Atlanta run sent the stunned Rockets home with an ‘L’ not a ‘W’. Mike D’Antoni was already making excuses about tonight following last night’s loss: “Mentally we just didn't do a good job, and you know this will leave a mark because this is one of those that are hard to swallow. But at the same time, it is one game, and it is what it is and we got a game (Friday). We've got to find our composure and play.” Good luck with that, Mike. Big Ticket: Take the Bulls. |
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02-01-17 | Bulls +3.5 v. Thunder | Top | 128-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Chicago (#521) Oklahoma City is a complete mess right now, but the betting markets haven’t adjusted them downwards appropriately given their current situation. Meanwhile, the markets have bottomed out on Chicago; reacting to a locker room that doesn’t appear to be as bad as many mainstream media reports would indicate. Put those two factors together and there’s a strong case to be made for Chicago to win in SU fashion this evening. Let me start with an excerpt from my anti-Thunder wager last night, with the numbers edited slightly to reflect current realities. “There are more than a handful of brutal scheduling stretches in the NBA every year, but what the Thunder have been through over the past six weeks is as bad as it gets. Tonight’s game will be their 23rd consecutive game with a court change. They’ve gone out West, then back East more than once during this grueling slate, a stretch where they haven’t been able to practice with any sort of regularity. “Nor should we underestimate the impact of the Enes Kanter injury on OKC moving forward. Kanter was arguably the single most productive big man off the bench in the NBA this season. His absence doesn’t affect the pointspread very much, but it certainly has affected the Thunder’s play significantly.” OKC isn’t hopeless – they went on a 22-2 run in the second half at San Antonio last night, not an easy thing to do. But despite that flurry, the Thunder lost SU and failed to cover the +9 point spread. In the 14 minutes when Russell Westbrook sat, OKC was outscored by 22 points, a clear indication that the loss of Kanter is going to significantly affect their bench production moving forward. And for a team that has repeatedly struggled on the second night of back-2-backs (only one win in that situation in the last eight weeks), a second set of back-2-backs in the last week isn’t a positive factor for this exhausted ballclub. The Chicago side of the equation screams ‘bet-on’. Every bettor in the world heard about the Bulls locker room meltdown last week, with Dwayne Wade and Jimmy Butler taking potshots at their teammates following an ugly blown lead at home against Atlanta. But from ALL indications – the players, the coaches and the local media – this ‘chemistry crisis’ has been overblown, and things have been just fine in practice and on the court. Clearly, there’s no irreparable fracture in this locker room. Dwayne Wade: “Nothing needs to be repaired. Yeah, we're fine. We come in to play basketball and compete, and we've done a good job of that the last few days, with the exception of the Heat game when we laid a dud. But the last few days have been great competition, so we move on from there." I believe him! The Bulls lost by 15 at home to OKC less than a month ago. Of course, Jimmy Butler had the flu that night and scored only one point, his worst effort of the season. And Enes Kanter was arguably OKC’s best player that night with 20 points and 11 boards. OKC finished with a +27 when he was on the floor. That ain’t happenin’ tonight! Big Ticket: Take the Bulls. |
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01-20-17 | Blazers v. 76ers +1.5 | Top | 92-93 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Philadelphia (#852) Here’s a stat that you probably didn’t know, helping to explain Philadelphia’s recent surge. The 76ers have the scoring margin of a 56 win team with Joel Embiid on the floor this season. Without Embiid on the court, they have the scoring margin on an 11-win team. Philly’s young center is most assuredly a difference maker right now. Embiid has missed eleven games this year, and he’s been on restricted minutes in many others. But here in January, he’s been on quite a roll, averaging 23 points nine rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game. The shot blocking numbers really stand out; a lurking defensive presence in the paint, setting up another stat that you probably didn’t know. Here in January, where the Sixers are 6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS, the Philadelphia 76ers have the #2 defense in the NBA, based on the most accurate advanced metric numbers that I use. Their full season numbers aren’t even close to that, and the markets are clearly lagging behind Philadelphia’s noticeable, legitimate improvement on the defensive end. It’s not just Embiid stepping up. Another rookie, Dario Saric, who’s been stashed away in Europe for the last couple of years after getting picked in the lottery back in 2014, is playing excellent ball on both ends of the floor right now. One of the few veterans, Ersan Ilyasova, has been a difference maker with his clutch three point shooting. Point guard TJ McConnell has a truly impressive 8.6 assist to 1.7 ratio this month. In short, Philly’s young talent is finally coming together after years of futility. When the very worst franchise in the NBA in recent seasons starts playing competitive basketball, there’s ample line value to support them on the way up! Philly has already exceeded their win total from last year. Center Joel Embiid prior to their win over New York last week: "We have a chance (to make the playoffs)…. We are coming together. We are learning how to play with each other.” Embiid after the win over Charlotte last week: "The last couple games we've been finishing, so it gives us a lot of confidence." One last pro-Philly stat for you. The Sixers are 0-3 ATS as favorites this year. They are 0-3 ATS as big underdogs of +14 or more, tough road games against elite teams. In Philly’s other 34 games, where they are not favored and not huge underdogs, the 76ers are 23-11 ATS. Yes, they’ve covered the spread more than two thirds of the time in those games; a consistently undervalued commodity. It’s not hard to make an anti-Blazers argument at this stage of the campaign. Portland has lost three straight and is now sitting eight games under .500, despite playing with most of the same roster as last year’s team that finished with a #5 seed in the loaded West. The Blazers defensive numbers are truly atrocious, ranked #27 in advanced metric stats on that end of the court. Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum continue to pour in buckets from the guard spots, but this Blazers frontcourt is weak on both ends of the floor. That’s particularly bad news against Embiid, Jahlil Okafor and emerging Sixers big man Nerlens Noel. The Blazers lost by 25 in Philadelphia last year – no easy task, given how bad that Philadelphia team was. They came 12 points short of covering the spread against Philly in the first matchup this year, lucky to escape with a three point home win. And Portland has been awful in these short spread games all year, a woeful 6-14 ATS when the pointspread range is +3.5 to -3.5, consistently unable to generate critical stops during crunch time. These are not ‘bet-on’ quotes, in my opinion. Center Mason Plumlee: “I don't think our energy is good, man. Honestly, I think it is in spurts. We'll rally sometimes, but it's not sustained and that has to change." Damian Lillard hasn’t seemed too concerned with Portland’s struggles all year: “It's typical for every team. When things go well, that comes with energy. You're making shots, you're stopping the other team, you get energy from that because you feel good about what you're doing. I don't think we're giving ourselves enough situations to feel good about what we're doing often enough. Our energy drops because of that and teams take advantage of that." Wrong team favored. Period. Big Ticket: Take the 76ers. |
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06-16-16 | Warriors +2.5 v. Cavs | Top | 101-115 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 34 m | Show |
Big Ticket: NBA Playoff GOY: Take Golden State (#511) My clients and I cashed a winning bet with Cleveland in Game 3, and a winning bet with Golden State in Game 4. Let me start with an excerpt from that Game 4 write-up with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: “The results don’t lie. Golden State lost nine games during the regular season and they’ve lost seven games here in the playoffs. Following their first 15 defeats of the season, the Warriors have gone 14-1 SU; a very meaningful stat considering that a SU win in Game 6 equates to a pointspread win because they are underdogs. “The Warriors track record here in the postseason is worthy of note here as well. Following a Game 3 loss at Houston, Steve Kerr’s squad rolled to a 121-94 road win in Game 4 at Houston. Following a Game 3 loss to Portland, the Warriors rallied from behind to win and cover in overtime. And it’s surely worth noting what happened the last two times Golden State closed at +2 or higher (the current prevailing pointspread as I write this). The Warriors were +3.5 at OKC for Game 6; again, making all the key plays down the stretch to emerge victorious. They did the exact same thing as +2.5 point dogs in Cleveland in Game 4.“ Let’s be real about what happened in Game 5. Draymond Green finished the regular season as the #3 player in the NBA (behind LeBron and Steph) in ‘Real plus-minus’, an advanced metric stat that incorporates a player’s true value to their team. Without him on the floor, the Warriors looked lost on both ends of the court for extended stretches. Meanwhile, both LeBron and Kyrie Irving were on fire for most of the game, combining to his 33-54 shots, each putting up 41 points. Make no mistake about it – that ain’t happenin’ in Game 6 with Green back on the floor and the Warriors in ‘off a loss’ mode. Klay Thompson, talking about Irving’s 41 point effort: “It happens. I mean, he's a phenomenal player, especially on the offensive end, so it obviously stings. And you watch the film and see what you can do better, but you don't let it deflate you for Thursday. You play the same hard-nosed defense and try to make them take the same contested shots.” And let’s be real about one other thing that happened in Game 5 – the Warriors just missed shots. Based on SportsVU data, Golden State went 4-19 on ‘wide open’ three pointers, with Harrison Barnes, in particular, suffering an ugly shooting night. The good news is that they got those open looks, despite Green’s absence. With Green back on the floor for Game 6, expect a significantly better shooting effort from the defending champs. I’ll close with this quote from Steph Curry: "You work hard in the series early to put ourselves in this position again on Thursday, and we'll be ready. We'll obviously watch the film and understand the way the mishaps were, especially on the defensive end against those two guys. Come out with confidence and get the job done." GSW is the better team, coming off a loss, a role in which they’ve won 14 times in 15 tries since opening day. They’ve got no business as underdogs here! Big Ticket: Take the Warriors. |
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05-26-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -7 | Top | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
Take Golden State (#720) One of my biggest betting mantras when it comes to the NBA Playoffs is this: ‘When a series is Over, it’s Over.” You don’t want to be fighting losing battles with a team that expects to go down to defeat – playing for ‘pride’ is not enough of a motivator. So any analysis of the Warriors – Thunder Game 5 matchup must begin by answering a simple question – are the Warriors done? Two quotes stand out to me to indicate that Golden State is not done yet. Let me start with Draymond Green, a superstar level performer who was nothing short of awful in two games in OKC: 2-16 shooting with ten turnovers. "I've been the energy for this team and I have not been that. I think our energy goes as my energy goes, and I've been awful … At the end of the day I know I've got to be better in Game 5. It's all or nothing. We've put too much work in to go out like this.” And then there’s Steve Kerr, who did the right thing yesterday, giving his fatigued team the day off to get refreshed. "We are the defending champs. Most teams that were down 3-1 in the conference finals, I'm guessing weren't the defending champs. We feel very confident. We don’t need to be on the court (Wednesday). This is a day to get refreshed.” The Thunder were in a comparable spot two years ago in the conference Finals. After controlling Games 3 & 4 against the Spurs, they travelled back to San Antonio for Game 5. It wasn’t pretty, a 117-89 loss. Following their Game 1 win on this floor this year, once again the Thunder were essentially no-shows in a 118-91 defeat that was all garbage time in the second half. I’m not convinced we’ll see the Thunder’s ‘A’ game tonight. We know how strong this home court has been throughout the course of the regular season, and even here in the playoffs where the Warriors are 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS against the closing number. The Warriors hadn’t lost two straight games all year prior to their Game 4 defeat. I’m willing to bet that they’re not going to suffer their first three game losing streak of the season tonight. Draymond Green said it right: “We've put too much work in to go out like this.” Take the Warriors. |
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05-24-16 | Warriors -1 v. Thunder | Top | 94-118 | Loss | -106 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
Take Golden State (#715) There’s no need to overanalyze this one, with three key factors putting me on the Warriors side as short road favorites tonight. First, this has been a ‘spot’ series. Golden State had their spot in Game 2, and put together a massive blowout against OKC. OKC had their spot in Game 3, and put together a massive blowout against the Warriors. Now it’s a Warriors spot once again, following that Game 3 debacle. Secondly, I’m buying what Steph Curry is saying 100%, with his quote yesterday talking about the Game 3 loss and what he expects from Game 4: “Everything is magnified in that situation, when literally nothing’s going our way for four straight minutes and then I get an open look and I miss and the crowd goes crazy and they get a rebound and then go down in transition. It just adds to how out of control it was for us in that second quarter. Especially when you’re on the road, they’ll feed off of that. It won’t affect us tomorrow. We’re going to be ourselves, execute what we need to do, and hopefully we make those shots tomorrow.” And lastly, Golden State has proven time and time again that they are worthy of support in this role. The Warriors faced 2-1 series deficits twice last year on their way to the title, in the Western Conference semi’s against the Grizzlies and in the Finals against the Cavaliers. The Warriors won Game 4 by 17 at Memphis and by 21 at Cleveland, closing out those two series with a combined 6-0 SU, 6-0 ATS mark following those 2-1 deficits. And no team in NBA history has been better off a loss than the 2016 Warriors, because you can’t be better than perfect. Off three previous playoff losses, the Warriors have won their next game by 28, 7 and 21 points, with two of those three coming on the road. They went 9-0 SU off a loss in the regular season, winning their next games by 11, 25, 5, 6, 3, 34, 18, 4 and 25 points, an average margin of victory of more than 14.5 points per game. That’s a track record that certainly captures my attention! Take the Warriors. |
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05-22-16 | Warriors v. Thunder +3.5 | Top | 105-133 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
Take Oklahoma City (#712) In the three regular season meetings between the Warriors and the Thunder, Oklahoma City won the rebounding battle by a combined 40 boards. That was not unusual for the single best rebounding team in the NBA this decade – OKC is no joke when it comes to dominating the glass. In OKC’s Game 1 win at Golden State, the Thunder were +8 on the boards. But Oklahoma City, as a team, was clearly fatigued in Game 2 after taking three straight to close out the Spurs, then Game 1 of this series. Once Golden State made their run to open the second half, the Thunder simply didn’t have the energy to counter. Kevin Durant, following the loss: “I think they just got all the 50-50 balls on the offensive glass. It kind of surprises when guys are running in there because we're so good in transition. But they were in there and able to get their hands on some basketballs, so you have to give them credit……It's on us to make adjustments, boxing guys out and putting bodies on them and getting those rebounds. As simple as that. So we can't have that next game." Now OKC has had three full days off since that ugly second half against the Warriors, primed to bounce back strong. It’s surely worth noting that OKC hasn’t lost a home game by more than four points since their second game following the All Star Break back in February. They’re 5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS in their last five tries coming off a loss, dating back to the final week of the regular season; 21-9 SU off a loss since Day 1 this year. Golden State has played four road games here in the playoffs. They’ve won exactly one of those four games in regulation, and that came off a home loss to the Rockets in Game 2 when Houston was ‘fat and happy’ and Golden State was supremely motivate. OKC sure isn’t ‘fat and happy’ today…. Take the Thunder. |
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05-16-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 108-102 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
Take Golden State (#702) The Spurs were old and tired, and the physicality of OKC’s game—both in the paint and on the perimeter – wore San Antonio down as the series progressed. That’s how OKC turned a 2-1 series deficit into a 4-2 series win. But Golden State is anything BUT worn down. In fact, the silver lining for the Warriors regarding Steph Curry’s injury problems here in the playoffs is that Curry is now the freshest player on the floor, with only 123 minutes of court time since the regular season finale back on April 13h. Golden State closed out their series against the Blazers last Wednesday. It’s surely worth noting that the Warriors are 21-4 SU, 16-9 ATS with two days or more between games, a squad that has consistently overachieved when rested and ready. OKC was tied or had the lead in the fourth quarter of all three regular season meetings, yet the Thunder did not win a game or cover a pointspread against the Warriors in any of those three contests. Why not? Steve Kerr’s roster flexibility on the defensive end game him all kinds of options to defend Durant and Westbrook during crunch time. Andre Igoudala, Klay Thompson and Shaun Livingston will all get their chance to defend Russell Westbrook, forcing Westbrook to deal with a lot of different defensive looks. Igoudala, Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green will all rotate defensive assignments against Kevin Durant, again, giving the Warriors the flexibility to try different looks against the OKC superstars. The Warriors have been pointspread machines on this floor in recent weeks, 7-1 ATS in their last eight tries against the closing number. OKC was a no-show in Game 1 on the road of their last series, blown out by 32 points. While I’m not going to call for an Absolute Annihilation like that Game 1 defeat at San Antonio, I’m not convinced they’ll be able to hang tough with the defending champs tonight. Take the Warriors. |
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05-15-16 | Heat +4.5 v. Raptors | Top | 89-116 | Loss | -102 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
Take Miami (#549) This one comes down to one basic question: Who do we trust in a ‘Win or go home’ situation? The starting point for that question comes down to historical context. Toronto is 2-6 all tie in elimination games. They lost on this floor to Brooklyn in Game 7 two years ago, and blew a 16 point fourth quarter lead in the first round against Indiana this year, failing to cover the pointspread. Their two best players, Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are both flawed in this setting. DeRozan has been hampered by a thumb injury, shooting just 38% from the floor in the series. Lowry is averaging only 5.3 assists per game in this series while also shooting at a 38% clip; a guy not exactly known for stepping up in his biggest games. Miami has won their last four Game 7’s; now 7-1 in their last eight tries when facing elimination in a playoff series. To put that into context with Toronto’s failures in closeout games, we’re looking at a combined 13-3 (81%) angle in support of the road underdog here. And Dwayne Wade, unlike Lowry and DeRozan, is a guy who I want my money on in this ‘must win’ role. Wade, talking about Game 7: “You've got to do a little more. Obviously, it's a great environment to be in. ... It's phenomenal. But you've got to give everything you have. There's no tomorrow. That's the way we approach it. I think it's going to be two teams trying to give everything they have. Best team wins, man." The Raptors only cover as home favorites in this series was in Game 5 and even that comes with an asterisk – a one point lead with 1:33 left on the clock turned into an eight point win after Lowry hit a pair of tough, contested jumpers with the shot clock winding down. A team that is 2-5 ATS as home chalk in the playoffs will be hard pressed to win this game at all, let alone winning it by any sort of margin! Take the Heat. |
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05-08-16 | Spurs v. Thunder +1.5 | Top | 97-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Oklahoma City (#528) I don’t bet zig-zags in the NBA Playoffs blindly, by any stretch of the imagination. But this series has all the makings of a legitimate zig-zag series, where betting on the loser of the previous game makes perfect sense. We’ve seen the zig-zag cash in Game 2, when OKC bounced back off their Game 1 debacle. We saw it cash again in Game 3, when San Antonio made the key plays down the stretch to emerge with a four point victory. And I expect to see the zig-zag be the defining factor in Game 4 tonight. Kevin Durant knows that the Thunder don’t need to make dramatic changes to beat the Spurs tonight. Here’s his quote, talking about Game 3: “They made tough 2s, they made 3s. We did a good job of making them shoot tough shots, but they made them.” The Spurs have connected from three point range at a 46% clip here in the postseason, an unsustainable number, well above their 37.5% mark during the regular season. They’ve hit more than half of their shots from three point range in each of their two wins in this series. Without that three point barrage, San Antonio is certainly no better than OKC. I like the talk out of the Thunder locker room following their Game 3 loss – no panic, only focus. And I certainly like to hear this quote from Russell Westbrook, arguably the best player on the floor. “(I took) too many shots (in Game 3). I've got to do a better job getting guys shots. I've got to get other guys involved, especially to beat this team. Even though I had some shots I (usually) make, I've got to read and find ways to get guys shots. I take the blame." A focused Westbrook at the top of his game is a ‘bet-on’ guy, plain and simple. This play gets bumped up to Big Ticket status thanks to this generous pointspread. For reference, the full strength Thunder faced the full-strength Spurs on the opening night of the season. Oklahoma City was a 4/4.5 point home favorite in that game, notching a win and cover. Both teams are at full strength now. Both teams have essentially lived up to expectations or exceeded expectations since opening night. San Antonio isn’t coming off a loss, like they were in Game 3. Yet this pointspread has still been adjusted 5.5 points compared to where it was. That’s waaaay too much of an adjustment in this bettor’s opinion, particularly in a clear OKC spot. Big Ticket: Take the Thunder |
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05-02-16 | Hawks +8 v. Cavs | Top | 93-104 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
Take Atlanta (#503) I don’t want to lay a big price with Cleveland tonight. The Cavs have been off since sweeping the Pistons out of the playoffs last Sunday, an eight game break between games. They were in this exact same spot last year – coming off a first round sweep against the Celtics, with eight days off between the end of the first round and the beginning of the second round. The Cavs trailed from the opening tip in Game 1 of their next series, losing outright at home to the Bulls. Cleveland was the better team – they won four of the next five to close out Chicago – but they did not bring their ‘A’ game off that long layoff. I’m expecting similar results this year, especially with the way the Hawks have this game circled on their schedules, very much a ‘statement’ game for the road underdog. The Cavs are 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS against Atlanta since the start of the Eastern Conference Finals last year, including a pair of late season victories over the Hawks last month. Atlanta had the single best defensive stats in the NBA post All Star Break, holding foes to 96 points per 100 possessions. In Round 1 against the Celtics, their D was even better, holding Boston to just over 91 points per 100 possessions. Yet in those two head-to-head matchups in April, the Cavs averaged 104.2 points per 100 possessions while beating the Hawks, once by a bucket in OT, the other time by double digits. So what’s likely to be different tonight? First, the Cavs cannot expected to be in great rhythm following that long layoff. Secondly, the Hawks aren’t a young, inexperienced playoff team anymore – they’re seasoned veterans with the mindset that they can win playoff games on the road. They closed out their series in Boston against the Celtics with a wire-2-wire road victory. Last year in the playoffs, they closed out their series against Brooklyn with a road win, notched a pair of playoff wins at Washington, including the series clincher, and took the Cavs to OT in Cleveland, covering wire-2-wire. And thirdly, I like the Hawks gameplan and confidence level, as expressed through these two key quotes. Kent Bazemore: “Winning Game 6 in Boston is a huge step for not only myself, but this team. I don't think a lot of people thought we were going to go up there and close it, the way they had been playing us all series. It's just a step for us in the right direction." Bazemore, talking about guarding LeBron: “You can’t go in humble. You have to make yourself angry. You have to do whatever it takes to accept that challenge because he’s a freight train. He brings it. He comes with everything he has. You have to do the same to hang in there.” Look for the Hawks to ‘hang in there’ for the full 48 minutes tonight. Take the Hawks. |
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05-01-16 | Pacers v. Raptors -5.5 | Top | 84-89 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
Take Toronto (#726) The Pacers aren’t good enough, mature enough or mentally tough enough to trust in a hostile Game 7 road environment. We saw Indiana completely melt down on this floor in Game 5, allowing a late 21-2 Raptors run. We saw them unable to hang tough in Game 2 on this floor, simply outclassed by the Raptors in a double digit loss. Other than Paul George , the Pacers haven’t gotten consistent production out of anyone in this series, and when it comes to matchup edges, Indiana has precious few And now that the Pacers have covered three straight in this series, the value pendulum has shifted towards the home favorite. For me, this bet comes down to two guys – Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, the Raptors All Star caliber backcourt. DeRozan has shot 32% in this series, Lowry 31%. These guys are elite – plain and simple – and I think they’ve got an ‘A” game in them. The Raptors haven’t had a big shooting game from three point range from anybody in this series either. DeMarre Carroll, Patrick Patterson and/or Terrence Ross are certainly capable of lighting it up today. The Raptors have far more ‘upside’ in this one game ‘win or go home’ setting than the Pacers do, plain and simple. Only six #7 seeds have won a first round series since the NBA expanded to it’s current format back in 1984. And in a Game 7 situation, the team that’s trailing won’t stop fouling in the final minute, giving the Raptors (an excellent free throw shooting team) an excellent chance to cover late if they’re not winning by margin already. Take the Raptors. |
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04-28-16 | Hawks -2 v. Celtics | Top | 104-92 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Atlanta (#701) The one thing the Celtics could not afford was another key injury. And while sparkplug point guard Isaiah Thomas is still expected to suit up tonight, he injured his ankle in Game 4 and tweaked it again in Game 5, resulting in a dismal 3-12 shooting effort for just seven points in their ugly Game 5 loss. Atlanta – the #1 defensive team in the NBA since the All Star Break – put their defensive focus on stopping Thomas, putting two or three defenders in his way so he couldn’t drive into the paint. That’s not going to change tonight. And this quote shows how frustrated Isaiah Thomas is with his limited supporting cast. “Their game plan was to let the other guys beat us. It should be a sign of disrespect to my teammates for them to put two on the ball every time I have it. Other guys have to step up and make plays. That's what it comes down to." The Hawks have led by 15 or more in four of the five games in this series; clearly the better of the two squads. They got hurt by a 42 point outburst from Thomas in Game 3, and then had a fourth quarter meltdown in Game 4, but they’ve been the better team throughout this series. The Celtics were bounced out of the first round last year, failing to win or cover their elimination game at home. Their previous playoff berth in 2013 also saw them get eliminated on their home floor. The Celtics roster has absolutely no ‘dig down deep and win a crucial playoff game’ experience other than that Game 4 comeback. Atlanta, on the other hand, went to the Eastern Conference Finals last year. They closed out their series against Brooklyn with a road win, notched a pair of playoff wins at Washington, including the series clincher, and took the Cavs to OT in Cleveland, covering wire-2-wire. This team is mentally tough, plain and simple, and their coach is absolutely a bet-on guy in these type of situations. Atlanta is road chalk here for a reason, the bigger, deeper and more experienced, battle tested squad. Expect them to close out the series with a win in Boston tonight, a play worthy of Big Ticket status. Big Ticket: Take the Hawks. |
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04-27-16 | Blazers v. Clippers +3.5 | Top | 108-98 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
Take the LA Clippers (#578) The Clippers were in the -8.5/-9 range for both Game 1 and Game 2 against Portland. Now, without Blake Griffin and Chris Paul, the Clippers are +3 at home in Game 5. Given the circumstances for both teams, that pointspread is a good notch or two into ‘overreaction’ territory, making the Clips a clear choice for this bettor. We’ve seen it 1000 times before. A team loses their star, then steps up for a game or two before the true reality of their situation sets in. The Warriors won and covered without Steph Curry. The Hornets won Games 3 and 4 at home without Nicholas Batum. Miami hasn’t done too badly without Chris Bosh. The Celtics stepped up in two home games without Avery Bradley. I could go on and on, but you get my point – these guys are all NBA talents, even the ‘scrubs’; and they’re capable of filling some pretty big shoes when given the opportunity. Doc Rivers quote speaks volumes: “We still have home court. No one has won a road game yet in this series. Now we have to find a way of winning tomorrow and that's as far as we can think right now. My job with the guys is to make sure that they're ready and focused. ….We've had 10 different lineups on the board. Most likely it will be a pretty big lineup." And it’s surely worth noting that the Clips played well without Griffin for more than half the season while the Austin Rivers/Pablo Prigioni combo at point guard are capable of filling Paul’s shoes for a night. Portland has no game film to dissect on Doc Rivers new rotations, while the Blazers aren’t changing anything; a legitimate advantage for the home underdog. And the Blazers – a young team without any recent history of postseason success – have all the makings of a ‘fat and happy’ squad after tying up the series at two games apiece in Portland, while watching LA’s two superstars both go down to injury. It’s a classic ‘trap’ spot for Terry Stotts squad – be sure to take at least a taste of LA on the moneyline as a portion of your overall wager. Take the Clippers. |
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04-26-16 | Pacers +7 v. Raptors | Top | 99-102 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
Take Indiana (#569) I’m not looking to lay points with a Raptors team that is in the midst of one of their worst stretches of basketball of the entire season right now. Here’s what Charles Barkley had to say about Toronto following their poorly played Game 4 loss in Indiana over the weekend: “I go back and look at my career and great teams are always greedy. Toronto is just a good team. They were content with the split. Look at their energy level in Game #3 versus Game #4, it is like night and day. You had to know Indiana was going to come out and punch you in the mouth. You can just see it in their energy level.” The Raptors earned the #2 seed in the East because of their great guard play, with both Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan playing at an All Star level. That duo has collapsed against the Pacers. After the Game 4 loss, Lowry now has a grand total of four ATS covers in 15 games as a starting point guard in the playoffs. DeRozan was #3 in the regular season in free throw attempts, but he’s failed to get to the line even one time twice in the last three games. Between them, that duo is shooting under 31% from the floor in the series. Raptors head coach Dwane Casey: “Give Indiana credit, they've done a good job on DeMar and Kyle.” The only real edge Toronto has enjoyed in this series was in the frontcourt, where Jonas Valanciunas owned the paint for the first there games: 48 rebounds, 42 points and four blocks. But Pacers head coach Frank Vogel tweaked his lineup for Game 4, inserting impressive rookie big man Myles Turner into the starting lineup. After losing the battle of the board by 52 in the first two games, having Turner as a starter was a difference maker, as the Pacers won the Game 4 rebounding battle for the first time all series. In addition to the success from Turner on the boards, the Pacers finally got step-up efforts from Ian Mahinmi and George Hill, both of whom enjoyed their best game of the series. With Paul George finally getting some help, the Pacers are ‘live dogs’ in what should be a down to the wire affair in Toronto tonight! Take the Pacers. |
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04-25-16 | Heat v. Hornets -2 | Top | 85-89 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
Take Charlotte (#562) The single best offensive team in the NBA this year, Golden State, finished the season with a 112.5 points per 100 possessions average. The single worst defensive team in the NBA, the LA Lakers, allowed 109.2 points per 100 possessions. Through the first two games of this series, the Miami Heat averaged 134.7 points per 100 possessions. That obviously couldn’t continue, and we saw Miami fall apart offensive in Charlotte over the weekend, scoring only 80 points on 34% shooting; missing 52 of their 79 shot attempts. Let’s give Charlotte head coach Steve Clifford credit for not panicking when facing an 0-2 deficit. Here was his quote prior to Game 3: “Shooting is NOT their strength…..You have to look at how they're scoring. They're not running sets that we're having trouble with coverages on. It's one-on-one stuff.... Sometimes, the other team just makes shots. That's what's really going on." Clifford didn’t make wholesale adjustments to his defense, and the pendulum swung the other way with Miami’s jump shooting in Game 3. But Clifford made two BIG adjustments to his offense – literally – inserting big men Al Jefferson and Frank Kaminsky into his starting lineup in place of the injured Nick Batum and defensive minded Cody Zeller. The end result? Miami got outscored 52-28 in the paint; a problem that won’t be easy to fix with Hassan Whiteside banged up (missing practice yesterday) and Chris Bosh out long term. Head coach Eric Spoelstra just doesn’t have a bevy of quality low post options. Meanwhile, here’s a great quote from Courtney Lee talking about how Clifford’s rotation adjustments have helped their offense. “There’s mismatches all over the place with that. We utilized Kemba (Walker) using his quickness in pick-and-rolls on Deng, and then Frank started to post-up. It worked to our benefit. Hopefully, they keep it up. I’ve seen the off-guard guard Kemba before, but not in the sense of a guard then [switching] to guard a big man.” That’s a ‘bet-on’ quote if I ever saw one! In Miami’s last road game of the regular season, they blew a 26 point lead at Boston while going eight full minutes without a single basket. In their first road game of the playoffs, Miami had two extended scoreless droughts of six minutes or more. In fact, the Heat are now 2-6 SU, 1-7 ATS in their last eight road tilts. We might think of Miami as a veteran, battle tested squad, but they’ve shown plenty of ‘fall apart and panic’ tendencies in hostile road environments. Take the Hornets. |
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04-21-16 | Raptors -1 v. Pacers | Top | 101-85 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
Big Ticket: NBA Game of the Month: Take Toronto (#535). The Raptors had lost seven consecutive playoff games dating back to 2014 prior to their win over Indiana in Game 2 of this series, a much needed confidence boost. A fully healthy DeMarre Carroll made his first start for the Raptors since January and he was a difference maker on the defensive end; a big part of Indiana’s offensive struggles. More than anything, Game 2 was about Toronto’s bigs outplaying Indiana’s bigs. The Raptors were +13 on the boards and +16 in points in the paint, in part due to a huge game from Jonas Valanciunas, with 23 points and 15 boards. Indiana’s Paul George following the defeat: “He's been huge, literally. We're doing a good job on Kyle and DeMar but the third guy, Valanciunas, has stepped up. He's who is causing us the problems right now and we've got to figure it out." Pacers head coach Frank Vogel: “We've got our hands full with their frontcourt.” The reason that Toronto’s frontcourt edge is so important for tonight’s meeting is because the Raptors still haven’t gotten a good playoff game from either one of their stars. Kyle Lowry is just 7-26 from the floor in the first two games, 1-12 from three point range with eight turnovers in two games. DeMar DeRozan has been even worse: 10-37 from the floor, without a single free throw attempt in Game 2. That duo is too good to get shut down long term; a pair of All Star caliber players. The Raptors are just 9-37 from three point range in this series, something that must be considered ‘improvable’ because they finished #4 in the NBA in three point shooting percentage during the regular season. And if Toronto’s guards play reasonably well, the Pacers limited roster is likely to be outclassed. Paul George is a superstar. His teammates are not. The Pacers other players besides George have combined to shoot 43-112 in this series, and they’re not getting a talent infusion prior to Game 3. Toronto won 23 road games this season, and went 11-5 ATS in this ‘short favorite’ role (-3.5 or less). Meanwhile, the Pacers lost 15 times on this floor, including ‘down the stretch’ home losses to lottery bound Chicago and Orlando, and the Pacers had a losing ATS mark (7-10) as a short underdog (+3.5 or less). Toronto is the better of these two teams, and I expect them to win this game! Big Ticket: Take the Raptors. |
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04-19-16 | Celtics v. Hawks -6.5 | Top | 72-89 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show |
Take Atlanta (#524) Success in the NBA Playoffs is as much about staying healthy as any other factor. Teams that suffer impact injuries go home early, plain and simple. And that’s what makes the Avery Bradley injury so important to consider for the Celtics. Make no mistake about it – Bradley might not move the needle for the general public or the betting markets, but he absolutely moves the needle when it comes to ‘on-floor impact’; particularly on the defensive end of the court. The Celtics D held Atlanta to 5-26 shooting (19%) from three point range in Game 1, in large part due to Bradley’s pressure on the perimeter. Here’s a quote from Blazers point guard Damian Lillard following his last matchup with Bradley: “I told him he was the best perimeter defender in the league. Because he is. … He's there every possession. He doesn't get screened. He's tough. You've got to give credit where it's due." How about Warriors head coach Steve Kerr, talking about Bradley right before the Celtics knocked off the Warriors in Golden State last month: “He just puts a lot of pressure on the ball. ... He knows what people are doing and he oftentimes jumps plays as they’re happening or before they happen. So, I agree with Damian (Lillard). I think Avery Bradley’s as good of an on-ball defender as there is in the league.” Kyle Korver is an ATS difference maker for Atlanta. Since the beginning of March, the Hawks are 11-2 SU, 9-4 ATS when Korver hits at least two three pointers. Their two SU losses? By two to Cleveland in OT, by four to Golden State in OT -- no shame there! And two of the ATS losses were in double digit wins. Meanwhile, the Hawks went 4-6 SU and ATS when Korver hit one three pointer or less during that same span. Bradley dominated the perimeter defensively in Game 1, and Korver went 1-10 from the floor, 0-7 from three point range. The Hawks got double doubles from Al Horford and Jeff Teague in Game 1, but their perimeter shooting struggles doomed their chances of ATS success. Without the Celtics best on-ball defender available, look for those perimeter shots to fall tonight – from Korver and others -- turning this game into a comfortable win for the home team. Take the Hawks. |
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04-18-16 | Pacers +7.5 v. Raptors | Top | 87-98 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 20 m | Show |
Take Indiana (#517) The hard numbers here tell a good portion of the story. Toronto earned the #2 seed in the East because they enjoyed elite level guard play all season long, with both DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry playing at an All Star caliber level. But when it comes to postseason success, Lowry in particular has been nothing short of awful. Lowry has been the starting point guard in 12 NBA Playoff games in his career. His team has gone 3-9 SU, 2-9-1 ATS in those contests – betting against Lowry has cashed at an 82% clip in his postseason career. And that’s a trend worth riding again tonight. Lowry’s quote following Game 1 doesn’t exactly reek of confidence: “If you start thinking like that (negatively), your energy gets zapped. You start thinking ‘Oh sh**, here we go again’. You can’t think like that.” From a guy who went 3-13 from the floor, missed five of his nine free throw attempts and had six turnovers, a ‘confidence zapping’ quote doesn’t inspire me to lay points this evening. And with Paul George playing elite level defense on DeRozan (held to 5-19 from the floor in Game 1), it’s not going to be easy for Toronto to notch a SU win in this game at all, let alone winning by any sort of margin. Paul George played like a superstar in his playoff opener. The rest of the Pacers team did not. George hit 12 shots, the rest of his teammates combined for only 22 makes in 48 minutes. Indiana got into foul trouble, putting the Raptors on the line a whopping 38 times. The Pacers lost the battle of the boards by 14. Yet Indiana still won the game by double figures, despite a box score that wasn’t particularly pretty. Pacers head coach Frank Vogel has been in these spots before, and I trust Indiana’s veteran mentality enough to avoid a letdown here in a game where the pointspread simply doesn’t mesh with current reality. Take the Pacers. |
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04-16-16 | Rockets +13.5 v. Warriors | Top | 78-104 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 16 m | Show |
Take Houston (#503) In recent weeks, the Warriors have been pushed to the limit. Instead of resting starters and cruising to the #1 seed in the West, Golden State put their energy and effort into setting the All Time NBA record for win. They accomplished that goal; notching win #73 in a raucous blowout over Memphis on the final night of the regular season; one hell of an accomplishment. Even though this is the start of the playoffs, the Warriors just played a bigger game than this one! And with the spotlight squarely shinning on the defending champs, we’re seeing an inflated pointspread here. Last year, in three playoff games on this floor, Houston closed +10.5 , +10 and +9.5. They Rockets covered the spread in both Game 1 and Game 2 of that series, losing the two games by a combined margin of five points. In recent weeks, Golden State laid -11.5 to a slumping Celtics team on the second night of back-2-backs. They laid -12.5 to a lottery bound Wizards team also in a back-2-back situation. Now they are laying -13 today against a Rockets team that has only lost twice by more than 13 points since the All Star Break. That, folks, is what old timer bettors call an ‘overlay’ – this pointspread is simply too high! Golden State went 2-6 ATS as double digit favorites down the stretch, failing to notch blowouts the way they were notching them throughout the first four months of the season. And it’s surely worth noting that on their way to the title last year, the Warriors went 1-7 ATS as home favorites in Games 1 & 2 of their four playoff series (in regulation; they did cover one additional spread of -6 in overtime). There will be no pointspread bargains to support the Warriors this postseason….. Don’t underestimate the difference that Patrick Beverly can be expected to make in this year’s playoff series after he missed last year’s series due to injury. Beverly doesn’t move the needle on any pointspread, but he’s a feisty, ‘sticky’ defender that JB Bickerstaff can stick in front of Steph Curry to slow him down a little bit. And, of course, the Rockets offensive firepower gives them a legit shot to rally from behind if we need it. Too many points! Take the Rockets. |
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04-12-16 | Grizzlies v. Clippers -7.5 | Top | 84-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
Take the LA Clippers (#510) “The Clippers have nothing to play for.” “The Clippers would be better off letting Memphis win so they might be able to face them again in the first round.” “Doc Rivers wants to rest starters.” I’ve seen all three ‘assumptions’ speculated about by bettors, columnists and pundits; a big part of the reason why this line is sitting at -7.5 instead of -10 or higher; the projected line if both of these two teams were expected to go ‘all out’ this evening. There’s only one problem with those assumptions – they’re all wrong! Memphis isn’t going to finish with the #5 seed and play LA again in the first round – not unless the Grizz pull the upset here tonight, pull the upset on the second night of back-2-backs at Golden State tomorrow night as the Warriors go for the all-time regular season wins record AND the Nuggets winning at Portland tomorrow as well. That ain’t gonna happen, and Grizzlies head coach Dave Joerger knows it. Meanwhile, there’s this whole ‘Doc Rivers doesn’t care’ motif floating around. I’m not buying that either, and there’s no evidence whatsoever except pure speculation from non-knowledgeable parties that Rivers is going to do that. Instead, from all indications, LA is going all out tonight, then taking it easy tomorrow in their season finale at Phoenix. Blake Griffin is still working his way back into the rotation, and Rivers wants to get him ample court time with LA’s veterans – Chris Paul, DeAndre Jordan and JJ Redick in particular, all of whom are expected to suit up and play normal minutes this evening. LA has won nine of their last ten, the lone loss coming by two points at OKC as 16 point underdogs; playing good basketball despite the fact that they’ve been transitioning their superstar back into the mix. But they’ll remember what happened the last time they played the Grizz, losing by double digits as 9.5 point favorites during an ugly stretch of five losses in six games. LA was outworked and outhustled in that contest. I’m not expecting a repeat performance here. Take the Clippers. |
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04-10-16 | Jazz -6.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 100-84 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
Take Utah (#507) Very quietly, waaaaaay underneath the radar, the Utah Jazz have been playing excellent basketball. Utah is 10-5 SU in their last 15 ballgames, which sounds pretty good. But when you take a look at their five losses during that span – OKC, Golden State in OT, San Antonio, the LA Clippers and Chicago (when the Bulls were relatively healthy) – you can see pretty clearly that the Jazz have been beating all the teams that they are supposed to beat, while hanging tough with the elites. When the Jazz have stepped down in class in recent weeks, they’ve consistently dominated, notching wins and covers against the Suns (twice), T-wolves (twice), Lakers, Rockets, Bucks, Kings, Wizards and Pelicans over the last month; now 11-4 ATS in their last 15 contests. It’s also worth noting how dominating Utah’s defense has been in every previous meeting with the Nuggets this year, holding Denver to 81, 88 and 84 points in the three previous meetings. Utah is coming off back-2-back heartbreakers, losing by a bucket to the Spurs, then by three in OT to the Clippers in their last three games. This is no letdown spot, as the Jazz are locked into a battle with Houston for the final playoff spot in the West. The Rockets close out against the Lakers, Kings and T-wolves – not exactly a tough slate. Utah’s Gordon Hayward, following that OT loss to the Clips: "We've got a three-game season coming up. I think that's the way we've got to look at it. We have to win each one of these next three games if we want to get in. You go from there and you just put this one behind you." Denver beat San Antonio on Friday Night, then celebrated like they had won the NBA Title, a big ‘statement game’ win for the Nuggets; the only team in the league to knock off both the Warriors and Spurs this year. Shooting guard Gary Harris: “That’s a pretty cool accomplishment.” Of course, prior to that victory against a Spurs team resting four starters, the Nuggets had lost at home by 22 to OKC, 9 to Sacramento and 9 to Dallas in their previous three home games. With the Jazz hungry coming off a pair of tight losses and the Nuggets ‘fat and happy’ coming off a win, Utah is a clear choice for this bettor! Take the Jazz. |
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04-09-16 | Cavs -6.5 v. Bulls | Top | 102-105 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
Take Cleveland (#707) This one is simple. The Bulls are already talking about their season in the past tense, even though they won’t be mathematically eliminated until AFTER they lose today. Jimmy Butler’s quote speaks volumes: "Obviously it's not the way that we wanted. I think everybody thinks about it each and every day. It probably keeps everybody up late, I know it does for me. But we can't change it now. It is what it is." Head coach Fred Hoiberg, echoed those ‘wait till next year’ sentiments: "It's tough. I've always been a guy -- I was a long shot to make it in this league. I made it. If not for heart disease, I would have played. I might still be playing, having more fun. Went into a tough job and succeeded at a very high level at Iowa State. I want to get us to a point where we're competing for a championship and it hadn't happened. I take it very personal. I'm the first guy to look at every night in the mirror and try to figure out what I can do better. So it's been tough.” The Bulls have had plenty of chances to fight back or hang tough to earn the final playoff spot in the East. Instead, they’ve stunk up the joint on both ends of the floor; just 3-7 SU in their last ten ballgames, including home losses to the Knicks, Hawks and Pistons. This is not a team responding well to adversity these days. Meanwhile, the Cavs are coming to play for their regular season road finale. Lebron James: “All of our guys are in the lineup (Saturday), so we obviously want to play well (after sitting in a loss to Indiana in their last game). Head coach Tyrone Lue:"(We want to stay in) the rhythm we've been in the last five games, outside the Indiana game. Staying in an offensive flow and our defense has been really good, just staying in that flow and rhythm." The Cavs beat the Bulls by double digits in their only meeting since the All Star Break. Expect similar results today in a game that has 'run 'em out of the gym' potential.. Take the Cavaliers. |
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04-06-16 | Thunder v. Blazers -2.5 | Top | 115-120 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
Take Portland (#514) I’m assuming Billy Donovan is not a complete idiot, because nothing ‘official’ has been announced yet. But it makes a ton of sense for OKC to take it easy tonight. The Thunder are locked into the #3 seed. Portland and Memphis are in a battle for the #5 and #6 seeds. The Grizzlies are playing without half their roster; losers of ten of their last 13 overall, stumbling towards the postseason. Portland is 5-1 in their last six, 23-11 SU in their last 34 games. If Donovan has any sense, he’ll be well aware that playing Memphis in the first round will be a much easier matchup than playing Portland. And Donovan can help create that first round matchup with Memphis by losing tonight. It’s the second night of back-2-backs for the Thunder, coming off an easy blowout win in the altitude of Denver last night. They’ve got two days off following tonight’s game, before easy matchups against the Lakers and Kings in their next two contests. If ever there was a spot for a coach to get his guys some extra rest, this is that spot; a spot where it behooves the road underdog to lose! Meanwhile, it behooves the Blazers to win! My clients and I cashed a winning bet supporting Portland in Sacramento last night. Here’s an excerpt from that write-up: “The Blazers are chasing the #5 seed, and they’ve got legitimate motivation here, unlike most NBA teams that are fighting for seeding. Portland finished #5 in the West last year, and they’ve got the chance to do it again, despite losing four starters last offseason. Point guard Damian Lillard: ‘I think it would say a lot about how hard our team worked if we can finish in the same spot that we finished in last season. If we finish the right way and have our minds right then that's definitely a possibility’” The Blazers have beaten the Thunder in every meeting on this court over the last two seasons. They’re 7-0 SU in their last seven at home; 16-2 SU in their last 18 on this floor. That’s an under-the-radar streak worth riding this evening. Take the Blazers |
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04-05-16 | Blazers -2.5 v. Kings | Top | 115-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Take Portland (#717) Sacramento’s current six game ATS winning streak is as fraudulent as it gets. They trailed by 28 against these same Blazers last week before a late 16-1 run over the final five minutes allowed them to escape with a 12 point loss as 13 point underdogs. It was a similar story at home against Miami this past weekend, when the Heat went flat with a 20 point lead late in the third quarter. The Kings ended up losing by six as 6.5 point underdogs. And while they ran the Nuggets out of the gym the following night, it’s surely worth noting this quote from Nuggets guard Will Barton: “Tonight we played a depleted Sacramento team and got our butts kicked. It's a terrible effort. Just a bad effort." In other words, it was more ‘Denver bad’ than ‘Sacramento good’ But the markets are looking at aggregate results, and they see the Kings as a team that’s playing better basketball down the stretch – hence the short pointspread tonight. And one thing Sacramento has not been able to do is beat Portland on any floor, with the Blazers sporting a five game winning streak in this series including a pair of double digit wins over the Kings in the last two meetings. The Kings have a losing SU and ATS record coming off a win when playing at home this year, and they’ve won back to back games only once since their first two contests coming out of the All Star Break. I’m not expecting that to change here. This isn’t a spot to step in front of Portland, not after the Blazers got thoroughly annihilated in Golden State on Sunday, allowing a season worst 136 points on 57% shooting; 60% from three point range. The Blazers are chasing the #5 seed, and they’ve got legitimate motivation here, unlike most NBA teams that are fighting for seeding. Portland finished #5 in the West last year, and they’ve got the chance to do it again, despite losing four starters last offseason. Point guard Damian Lillard: “I think it would say a lot about how hard our team worked if we can finish in the same spot that we finished in last season. If we finish the right way and have our minds right then that's definitely a possibility." Take the Blazers. |
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