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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-12-18 | Cardinals v. Reds OVER 9.5 | 13-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
Take St Louis – Cincinnati OVER (#903-904) Both starters are vulnerable here. Michael Wacha has struggled with his command in his first two starts – seven walks to go along with his seven strikeouts. Current Reds have a .285 batting average against him in a 151 at bat sample size. Sal Romano’s fly ball ways are problematic at the hitter friendly Great American Ballpark and he’s notched only three strikeouts in two starts. Both bullpens have been vulnerable – six losses between them, while Cinci ranks #29 in bullpen ERA – and neither pen is particularly fresh here. On a warm evening in Cinci with a strong wind blowing out to left field, look for both offenses to post some crooked numbers on the scoreboard. Take the Over. |
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04-11-18 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 8 | 10-7 | Win | 102 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Boston – New York OVER (#975-976) David Price is an ace against most teams, but the Yankees have absolutely feasted on his stuff, to the tune of a .315 batting average against over the last three seasons. And while Price has yet to allow a single run in two dominant outings against Tampa to open the season, it’s surely worth noting that both his velocity and his ground ball rate are both down from last year. The Red Sox bats are on fire, pounding out 32 runs over their last three games. Prior to yesterday, the Yanks had scored seven or more in four out of six. And it’s surely worth noting how disappointing this New York bullpen has been so far, leaving the door open for some potential late inning fireworks. Take the Over. |
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04-10-18 | Padres v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
Take Colorado – San Diego OVER (#909-910) Rockies starter Tyler Anderson is untrustworthy here. Anderson struggled to keep the ball down in his 2018 debut, allowing ten fly ball outs in six innings of work. That’s an optimal strategy for pitching at Petco, but a clear problem in the Mile High air of Coors Field. Last year, Anderson allowed a whopping 16 home runs in just 88 innings of work. Colorado’s bullpen behind him ranks in the bottom half of the majors in ERA so far, and they’ve already blown a pair of saves. The Padres lineup broke out with a seven run outburst last night, and only one of the five meetings between these two teams so far this season has stayed Under the total. The Rockies lineup will be getting a ‘short turnaround’ second look at Joey Lucchesi after facing him last week in San Diego. Colorado hit three dingers last night, game time temperatures will be near 70 degrees and both bullpens got used extensively last night. Take the Over. |
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04-10-18 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 7 | 1-4 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta – Washington OVER (#901-902) The Braves are scoring more than six runs per game this season and they lead all of MLB with a .285 batting average. Atlanta’s lineup has certainly enjoyed more success against Stephen Strasburg than most teams – they see him multiple times per year. Two of Strasburg’s three starts against Atlanta were downright ugly last year, with the Nats on the wrong end of 13-0 and 11-10 defeats. Current Braves have an .866 OPS against him in a decent sample size of 115 career at bats. And the Nats bullpen behind him has been roughed up repeatedly, ranked among the bottom five in baseball in bullpen ERA. Washington has hammered Foltyenwicz to the tune of a .311 batting average against an a .905 OPS in 122 at bats against him. And the Nats will get a ‘short turnaround’ second look at Foltyenwicz here after he failed to get out of the sixth inning despite a big lead when these two squads faced last week. Expect fireworks. Take the Over. |
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04-08-18 | Mets v. Nationals OVER 8 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
Take Washington – New York OVER (#913-914) Tanner Roark pitched well in his debut against the Braves. But his track record against the Mets is mediocre at best, and the Nationals bullpen behind him is really struggling right now with an ERA well above 6.00. That bullpen ERA is dead last in the NL and a big part of Washington’s 67% Over run to open the season. Plus, the Nats used their best bullpen arms last night, with Kintzler, Madson and Doolittle all getting an innings’ worth of work. Washington scored 34 runs in their previous five games before arriving in New York – this lineup can hit. Matt Harvey has a dismal track record against the Nationals. In five starts against them since the start of 2016, Harvey is winless while allowing 21 runs in 22.1 innings of work. And the Mets, too, used up their key bullpen arms yesterday, setting the stage for some late inning shenanigans should we need them. Take the Over. |
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04-04-18 | Cardinals v. Brewers OVER 9 | 6-0 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
Take Milwaukee – St Louis OVER (#907-908) Both of these lineups have gotten off to hot hitting starts; each squad ranked among the Top 6 in the NL in runs per game, batting average and OPS. Both starters got rocked by lesser lineups (the Padres and Mets) in their 2018 debuts. Current Brewers have hammered Carlos Martinez to the tune of a .322 batting average against. Martinez allowed 14 runs in 15.2 innings at Miller Park last year while going 0-3. Chacin has allowed current Cardinals to hit .309 against him and he got blasted in his lone start against them in 2017. Both bullpens have been used extensively in this series, leaving the door wide open for some late inning shenanigans should we need them! Take the Over. |
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04-03-18 | Rangers v. A's OVER 8.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
Take Oakland – Texas OVER (#969-970) Cole Hamels still has an ace level reputation, but he’s not at the top of his game anymore. His numbers took a sharp decline in Texas last year and in the opener he struggled with his command; much like last year. Current A’s have hit .343 against him with an 1.140 OPS. Behind Hamels, the Rangers bullpen is a dumpster fire right now, blowing another game last night. Kendall Graveman’s track record against the Rangers isn’t very good either, and he allowed three home runs in his 2018 debut. Throw in hitter-friendly home plate umpire Sam Holbrook calling balls and strikes and a brisk wind blowing out to right center and the stage is set for a high scoring affair in Oakland tonight. Take the Over. |
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04-01-18 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 10 | 8-2 | Push | 0 | 3 h 40 m | Show | |
Take Houston – Texas OVER (#967-968) The Astros spent the vast majority of the 2017 campaign destroying left handed pitching. They scored four runs in four innings against southpaw Matt Moore yesterday. Today, they’ll face Mike Minor, who hasn’t thrown more than two innings in a major league game since 2014 – he’ll be on a fairly strict pitch count here; not primed for a dominant showing. Behind him, the Rangers bullpen got beaten up yesterday – five relievers, five innings, five runs allowed. Meanwhile, Rangers starter Gerritt Cole has a real gopher ball problem, allowing 31 home runs despite his home games coming at pitcher-friendly PNC Park last year. In Arlington, Cole’s fly ball ways are poised for trouble. Look for these two potent lineups to put plenty of crooked numbers up on the scoreboard Easter Sunday! Take the Over. |
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10-25-17 | Astros v. Dodgers OVER 7 | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Take LA Dodgers – Houston OVER (#903-904) Last night’s game was a 3-1 pitcher’s duel, yet tonight’s game reeks of an Over! What’s the difference between the two spots? Plenty! I have the utmost of respect for Rich Hill and Justin Verlander, both of whom turned their respective careers around in their mid-30’s. But Rich Hill ain’t Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander ain’t Dallas Keuchel. Tonight, we’re not talking about a pair of lineups that are out of rhythm following multiple days off like we were yesterday. Instead, we’ve got the two of the most potent lineups in MLB in sync, facing pitching that’s a notch or two down compared to Game 1. We’ve still got gametime temperatures in the high 90’s, ideal hitters conditions. We’ve still got a very low total. Both teams used their key bullpen arms last night and the Astros bullpen, in particular, has shown vulnerability here in the postseason. And home plate umpire Paul Nauert isn’t known for a particularly wide strike zone, favoring a pair of patient lineups like these two are. In Nauert’s last game behind home plate for a Dodger game, LA scored 9 runs and went Over the total by themselves. In Nauert’s last game calling balls and strikes in an Astros game, Houston scored 11 runs and went Over the total by themselves. No shock here if once again, tonight, the winning team approaches or exceeds the total all by themselves. Take the Over. |
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09-13-17 | Reds v. Cardinals OVER 9 | 6-0 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
Take St Louis – Cincinnati OVER (#909-910) Last year at this time, St Louis starter Jack Flaherty was pitching in single A ball. He threw 134 innings for the season. He started this year in AA ball, now up to 158 innings and counting. His first two big league starts both came against light hitting lineups – San Diego and San Francisco – and neither was pretty. Flaherty allowed eight hits and five runs in four innings against the Giants, then struggled with his control, issuing four walks in five innings against San Fran last week. Flaherty is not a likely candidate to throw a seven or eight inning gem here. Cincinnati’s Tyler Mahle is an intriguing prospect, but Cinci has been babying him, for good reason. Despite the fact that the Reds pitching staff spent the second consecutive season dealing with a barrage of injuries, Mahle wasn’t the first starting pitcher called up. Or the second, third, fourth or fifth, for that matter. Mahle, too, has faced nothing but cold, anemic lineups at the big league level – the Pirates twice and the Mets. In two of those three starts, he struggled with walks, just like Flaherty has done; never a good sign. Mahle, like Flaherty, is not primed to dominate tonight. Both bullpens have been worn down of late. Four of Cinci’s last five starters haven’t made it into the sixth inning, while the Cardinals starting staff has been struggling to eat up innings as well. Both lineups are in solid current form. St Louis has scored 28 runs in the first four games of their homestand; Cinci has hung 14 over the past two games. Even home plate ump Sean Barber is trending Over when calling balls and strikes, with a relatively narrow strike zone. Expect some crooked numbers on the scoreboard in this one! Take the OVER. |
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09-06-17 | Angels v. A's OVER 9.5 | 1-3 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
Take the LA Angels – Oakland OVER (#967-968) The Angels lineup is on fire right now, pounding out 8, 10, 9, 7, 6, 11 and 8 runs in their last seven ballgames, showing much more ‘big inning’ capability since acquiring Justin Upton and Brandon Phillips last week. And the A’s lineup has shown plenty of explosiveness as well, pounding out 16 runs in the first two games of this series, producing six runs or more in eight of their last 13 contests while going 8-2 to the Over in their last ten. Clearly, these are two lineups hitting the ball very well right now. Neither starter is trustworthy today. Tyler Skaggs has been lit up for 16 runs in just 12.1 innings of work over his last three starts, clearly still not right following a three month stint on the DL. The A’s have hit him hard in both previous outings against Skaggs this year. Oakland’s Sean Manaea allowed six runs in 3.1 innings of work in his last start against LA. He didn’t make it out for the third inning in his first start against LA this year. Neither hurler is a likely candidate for an ace level showing today. While the heat wave in the Bay Area over the weekend has cooled off somewhat, it’s still warm today, with a steady wind blowing out to right field – excellent hitter conditions. And, key to this total, both bullpens are completely spent! The Angels have seen six of their last seven starters fail to finish the fourth inning. The A’s only got one starter out of the fifth during that same seven game span. That leaves ample opportunity for some late inning shenanigans in this one, in a game that has ‘Slugfest’ written all over it! Take the Over. |
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09-04-17 | Angels v. A's OVER 9.5 | 11-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
Take Oakland – LA Angels OVER (#971-972) Parker Bridwell faced the A’s in his last start and it wasn’t pretty. Bridwell got roughed up early and often, allowing seven earned runs before getting pulled without getting an out in the fourth inning. Chris Smith faced the Angels in his last start as well. That outing wasn’t particularly pretty either – Smith, too, allowed seven runs without getting out of the fourth inning. In this short turnaround rematch, I’m not expecting either starter to be capable of mowing down opposing hitters. Both opposing lineups have an OPS of better than 1.000 against the starters they’ll face today. The Angels lineup, in particular, is on fire right now, pounding out 8, 10, 9, 7 and 6 runs in their last five games, showing much more ‘big inning’ capability since acquiring Justin Upton and Brandon Phillips last week. And the A’s have shown plenty of explosiveness as well, pounding out six runs or more in six of their last eleven contests while cashing six Overs in their last eight ballgames. There’s been a heat wave in the Bay Area, and it’s still very warm today, with a steady wind blowing out to right field – excellent hitter conditions. And, key to this total, both bullpens are completely spent! The Angels have seen four of their last five starters fail to finish the fourth inning. The A’s only got one starter out of the fifth during that same five game span. That leaves ample opportunity for some late inning shenanigans in this one, in a game that has ‘Slugfest’ written all over it! Take the Over. |
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08-17-17 | Diamondbacks v. Astros OVER 9.5 | 4-0 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 50 m | Show | |
Take Houston – Arizona OVER (#967-968) My clients and I cashed a winner with the Astros –Dbacks Over last night, and there’s ample reason to expect another relatively high scoring affair in afternoon action on Thursday. Let me start with an excerpt from yesterday’s write-up. Numbers have been slightly edited to reflect the outcome of last night’s games: “The Astros are the highest scoring, best hitting team in baseball by a fairly wide margin. But for the better part of the last week, those bats have been ice cold. That came to an end on Tuesday, when the Astros pounded out nine runs while every starter in the lineup had at least one hit. On Wednesday, every starting Astro had at least one hit again, and the team pounded out another nine runs!” “Astros manager AJ Hinch: “We've led the league in offense in a lot of different categories, so I think today we looked a little bit more like ourselves." Infielder Alex Bregman: "We know we're a good offense, we just wanted to put together back-to-back-to-back (hits) and we did that. That's one of the things we've done a lot this year. When we put together quality ABs like that we're a tough offense to stop." There’s little reason to expect Houston’s bats to fall silent today against Patrick Corbin and the worn down Arizona bullpen behind him (four runs allowed in three bullpen innings last night). Corbin has a remarkable home/road dichotomy, with a 7-3 record and a 2.87 ERA at Chase Field compared to a 2-8/ 6.79 ERA on the highway. His two previous August road starts were both disasters, allowing 14 runs in just nine innings of work. Current Astros have hit .533 against him in their careers. The D-backs aren’t sitting pretty in the NL Wild Card race because of their elite pitching – it’s been Arizona’s lineup keying their success. That’s bad news for Mike Fiers and his 8.82 ERA in three previous August starts, allowing at least two home runs in all three of those games. Current D-backs have hit .304 with a .948 OPS against Fiers, and the Astros bullpen behind him, like Arizona’s gave up four runs in less than three innings last night. Even home plate ump Paul Nauert has an Over bias, setting the stage for what should be another Slugfest this afternoon. Take the Over. |
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08-16-17 | Diamondbacks v. Astros OVER 9 | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
Take Houston – Arizona OVER (#927-928) The Astros are the highest scoring, best hitting team in baseball by a fairly wide margin. But for the better part of the last week, those bats have been ice cold. That came to an end last night, when the Astros pounded out nine runs while every starter in the lineup had at least one hit. Astros manager AJ Hinch, following the game: “We've led the league in offense in a lot of different categories, so I think today we looked a little bit more like ourselves." Infielder Alex Bregman, who’s triple blew the game open early: "We know we're a good offense, we just wanted to put together back-to-back-to-back (hits) and we did that. That's one of the things we've done a lot this year. When we put together quality ABs like that we're a tough offense to stop." The D-backs aren’t sitting pretty in the NL Wild Card race because of their elite pitching – it’s been Arizona’s lineup keying their success. And while that lineup has cooled off against some elite pitchers over the past week, its still most assuredly a ‘bet-on’ batting order against the likes of Charlie Morton and the worn down Astros bullpen behind him. Morton has morphed into a power pitcher this year, with a career high strikeout rate and his lowest ground ball rate since 2010. No surprise, then, that Morton has shown signs of wearing down in the summer heat, with mediocre numbers since the All Star Break. The Astros bullpen behind him hasn’t had a day off since last Monday, and the starters have only finished the sixth inning twice during that span. Dbacks starter Taijuan Walker has seen the Astros plenty, dating from his tenure with the Seattle Mariners. Walker allowed eight runs in just six innings of work over two starts on this field last year on the heels of allowing 11 runs over 9.2 innings of work in two starts on this field in 2015. Current Astros have a .931 OPS against him in 102 career at bats, a decent sample size. And the Dbacks bullpen behind him has been a legitimate problem area of late for Arizona despite a strong bullpen effort last night. Expect fireworks in a game where either lineup is capable of flying Over the total all by themselves. Take the Over. |
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08-14-17 | Phillies v. Padres UNDER 8.5 | 4-7 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia – San Diego UNDER (#907-908) It’s not hard to make a case for betting these two anemic lineups Under the total at Petco tonight. San Diego ranks dead last in MLB in runs scored this year. Philadelphia ranks #29 out of 0 teams, the two lowest scoring lineups in baseball. From an OPS standpoint, both squads rank among the bottom five lineups. And it’s not like things have changed in any dramatic way in recent weeks. The Phillies have been held to three runs or less in eight of their last twelve ballgames. They’ve cashed only four Over bets in their last 15 ballgames. The Padres have produced 3, 4, 1, 3 and 2 runs in their last five at Petco, the lowest scoring park in MLB since it’s inception. Padres starter Travis Wood hasn’t wowed anybody since coming over from KC at the trading deadline, but his lone start at Petco was rock solid: six innings of two hit ball against the Pirates. Wood’s fly ball ways work at this spacious ballpark. Phillies starter Jared Eichoff threw five innings of scoreless ball against the Padres last month and he’s in solid current form, allowing only eight earned runs in his last four starts combined. Behind the starters, both squad saved their key bullpen arms yesterday – don’t expect any late inning shenanigans here, in a game that has all the makings of a low scoring affair. Take the Under. |
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08-04-17 | Nationals v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Washingon - Chicago OVER (#901-902). Sorry, Teddy will not have a detailed write-up for this game. He is speaking at the IFBC conference in Costa Rica on Friday. Watch his entire talk (starting at noon Eastern/9 AM Pacific) at www.ifbc.live. Normal write-ups will resume on Monday, sincere apologies for any inconvenience... |
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08-01-17 | Mets v. Rockies OVER 12.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
Take Colorado – New York OVER (#961-962) Let me start with an excerpt from my write-up recommending a wager against Steven Matz in San Diego in his last outing: Steven Matz is a ‘bet-against’ pitcher right now, plain and simple, nowhere near his ‘A’ game following elbow surgery. The Mets are 2-5 in his last seven trips to the hill. In his last three starts, Matz has lasted a combined 10.1 innings while allowing 23 hits and 15 earned runs. His strikeout rate is way down, his ground ball rate is down and his advanced metrics numbers clearly show that Matz’s 4.67 ERA is no aberration. Mets manager Terry Collins: “He just has to go back to making better pitches. His stuff is fine. He just has to command his fastball a little better. It's been getting too much of the plate." Matz was every bit as bad in San Diego as he’s been everywhere else of late; lasting only three innings while giving up nine hits and six earned runs. His lone previous start against the Rockies this year was as ugly as it gets; unable to record an out in the second inning; a seven run debacle. Current Rockies are hitting .500 against Matz in their careers. The Mets just traded away key bullpen arms behind Matz, sellers at the deadline. Facing a Rockies lineup that has scored 10. 9. 9, 18, 5, 7 and 13 runs in their last seven home games, expect Matz and the bullpen behind him to struggle mightily once again tonight. The Rockies are a threat to approach or exceed this total all by themselves. So are the Mets, the single strongest Over team in baseball this year, 61-31 to the Over. While they dealt away Lucas Duda at the deadline, the Mets kept most of their lineup intact; a lineup that has continued to produce Overs: 8-2 to the Over in their last ten ballgames. They hit struggling Rockies starter Jeff Hoffman hard less than three weeks ago, and Hoffman has been even worse in the two starts since that game, allowing 14 runs over seven innings of work in his last two starts combined. On a warm summer evening in the Mile High air of Denver, this game has ‘Slugfest’ written all over it! Take the Over. |
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07-25-17 | Astros v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | 5-0 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Houston – Philadelphia OVER (#923-924) The Astros have scored 36 runs on the first four games of their road trip; at least seven in every contest. This isn’t new or different. Houston has outscored the second highest scoring team in baseball by more than 50 runs. They lead MLB in batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS, all by wide margins. Only the Mets, A’s and Rays have cashed more Over bets than the Astros this season. And there’s no reason to expect Houston’s hot bats to cool off in Philadelphia tonight. Phillies manager Pete Mackanin doesn’t sound particularly confident that inconsistent starter Nick Pivetta and the worn down bullpen behind him will be able to shut down the Astros any better than last night, when the Astros flew Over the total all by themselves. "This is as good a team as we've seen. They're very aggressive hitters, and you can't make mistakes." Pivetta has allowed 11 home runs in his last six starts, a young pitcher prone to ‘making mistakes’. The Phillies bullpen behind him leads the majors with 25 losses this season (and only 14 saves!). But the Phillies bats have finally shown signs of life since the Break, scoring 49 runs in their last eight games; producing at least five runs seven times during that span. Astros starter Charlie Morton has a bad home/road split (ERA nearly two runs higher on the highway) and a poor track record in Citizens Bank Ballpark. Behind him, the Astros bullpen is spent after Brad Peacock, Lance McCullers and Collin McHugh all failed to finish the fifth inning over the past three days. Even home plate umpire Dan Iassogna is trending Over; 26-13 to the Over since the start of the 2016 campaign in games totaled at 9 or less. Expect fireworks. Take the Over. |
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07-20-17 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox UNDER 11 | 8-6 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 28 m | Show | |
Take Boston - Toronto UNDER (961-962) The betting markets have knee-jerked to the Over in early betting action on Thursday. After all, it’s a hot, humid day in Boston with a pair of suspect starting pitchers. But this getaway day game most assuredly does NOT have ‘Slugfest’ written all over it! Don’t be surprised if Red Sox manager John Farrell rests some key starters today. Boston played a 16 inning marathon on Saturday, a day/night doubleheader on Sunday and a 15 inning marathon on Tuesday. His quote following last night’s win: “Our roster is out of balance with extra pitchers; we’re able to rotate guys through. We’re going to have a little different look tomorrow, just maybe to conserve physically with some guys.” The Red Sox haven’t been hitting since the break, scoring five runs or less in every game. In fact, they’ve been held to three runs or less in six of their last nine, not exactly tearing the cover off the ball with their bats. No surprise, then, that the Red Sox have cashed six straight Unders. They’ve been strongly trending towards the Under at home for months, cashing only five Over tickets in their last 23 home games. Toronto’s key bats are all cold. Josh Donaldson isn’t hitting, Jose Bautista isn’t hitting, Troy Tulowitzki isn’t hitting and the Jays, like the Red Sox, haven’t put together any offensive explosions since the break. Both bullpens are in solid current form as well. This is one time where the optimal strategy is to zig while the markets zag…… Take the Under. |
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07-02-17 | Phillies v. Mets OVER 9.5 | 7-1 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 9 m | Show | |
Take New York - Philadelphia OVER (#951-952). Sorry, no detailed write-up for this early start game today. |
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07-01-17 | Giants v. Pirates OVER 9.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
Take Pittsburgh – San Francisco OVER (#901-902) Here’s the quote from Giants manager Bruce Bochy following last night’s 13 run outburst, the Giants fourth consecutive victory: "I think we'll get more consistent and start scoring more runs. It's hard to imagine we would stay in the rut that we were in offensively. Now, this is a small sample here, but it shows you what happens when you get timely hits. You have a much better chance of winning the ballgame. We're getting a ton of them right now. It's getting contagious." Last night’s Slugfest continued a recent trend for the Giants, who have pounded out 31 runs in their last four ballgames. And there’s little reason to expect the offensive onslaught to slow down against Chad Kuhl and the exhausted Pirates bullpen behind him. Kuhl hasn’t notched a single quality start since mid-April, unable to last past the fifth inning due to consistently high pitch counts. Five different relievers got used last night following Gerritt Cole’s rough outing, leaving the pen vulnerable this afternoon as well; bad news on a warm day in Pittsburgh (temps in the mid 80’s), with the wind blowing out to right field. Matt Moore’s days of being an effective big league pitcher are a long way in the rear view mirror now. He had an 8.88 ERA in June while allowing more than two baserunners per inning. And when Moore’s been away from pitcher friendly AT & T Park, he’s been downright awful, with a .353 batting average against and ab 8.39 ERA in nine road starts. San Fran’s bullpen behind him has been nothing short of awful, and the Pirates bats have finally woken up, scoring four or more in six of their last seven contests. Expect fireworks! Take the OVER. |
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06-27-17 | Rangers v. Indians OVER 10 | 2-1 | Loss | -117 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland – Texas OVER (#919-920) Make no mistake about it—these are two hot hitting lineups right now. The Indians rallied back from a seven run deficit last night, pounding out 15 runs on 19 hits and seven walks. They’ve scored five runs or more ten times in their last 13 games. Rangers manager Jeff Bannister: “That's a group of hitters that are swinging the bat very well now. They are very aggressive." The Rangers lineup is every bit as hot, if not hotter. Texas has pounded out 36 runs in their last five games, while scoring five or more in nine of their last eleven overall. Bottom line: either lineup is capable of approaching or exceeding the total all by themselves…just like they did last night. Neither starter can be trusted here, and both bullpens behind the starters are completely spent. The Rangers have used every key arm out of their pen while blowing big leads over the past two days, following short starts from Cole Hamels and Nick Martinez. The Indians couldn’t get Carlos Carrasco out of the fourth inning last night, and we’ve seen their once elite bullpen have some hiccups of late – even Andrew Miller has allowed a run or more in three of his last six appearances. All of which makes this a problematic matchup for both starters tonight. Mike Clevinger is no ace in the making, and he doesn’t eat up innings, needing 100 pitches to survive five frames against Baltimore last time out. He’s recorded an out in the sixth inning only once in his last five trips to the hill. Tyson Ross has made three big league starts over the past two seasons and two of them have been downright ugly, unable to get into the fourth inning without getting bombed. Even home plate umpire Chris Segal has a bit of an Over bias; 41-26 to the over calling balls and strikes over the past four seasons including a 67% Over rate here in 2017. Expect fireworks! Take the Over. |
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06-22-17 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies UNDER 12 | 10-3 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 55 m | Show | |
7* Take under ARI/COL Teddy doesn’t take many breaks – handicapping is a full time job, 365 days a year. But, as he does every summer, Teddy is taking a break from his detailed write-ups while he gets out fo the Vegas heat for a week or two. Teddy’s write-ups will resume as normal on Sunday, June 25th. Thank you for your understanding. |
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06-20-17 | Reds v. Rays OVER 9 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
Take CIN Over 9 (#979) Teddy doesn’t take many breaks – handicapping is a full time job, 365 days a year. But, as he does every summer, Teddy is taking a break from his detailed write-ups while he gets out fo the Vegas heat for a week or two. Teddy’s write-ups will resume as normal on Sunday, June 25th. Thank you for your understanding. |
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06-14-17 | Dodgers v. Indians UNDER 8 | 6-4 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland- LAD UNDER (#979-980) Teddy doesn’t take many breaks – handicapping is a full time job, 365 days a year. But, as he does every summer, Teddy is taking a break from his detailed write-ups while he gets out fo the Vegas heat for a week or two. Teddy’s write-ups will resume as normal on Sunday, June 25th. Thank you for your understanding. |
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06-13-17 | A's v. Marlins OVER 9 | 1-8 | Push | 0 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
Take Oakland -Miami OVER (#921-922). Teddy doesn’t take many breaks – handicapping is a full time job, 365 days a year. But, as he does every summer, Teddy is taking a break from his detailed write-ups while he gets out fo the Vegas heat for a week or two. Teddy’s write-ups will resume as normal on Sunday, June 25th. Thank you for your understanding. |
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06-02-17 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Take Boston – Baltimore OVER (#967-968) It’s going to be a warm June night in Baltimore, setting the stage for a high scoring affair on a night where the ball should carry in this hitter friendly venue. The ball was certainly carrying last night as the two teams combined for five home runs in a game that snuck Over the total late thanks to a Red Sox rally against the Orioles bullpen. Baltimore’s lineup has finally woken up, pounding out 17 runs in their last two ballgames. That’s bad news for Rick Porcello; who has a lousy track record against this Orioles lineup. In his lone warm weather start on this field last year, Porcello got lit up in a 12-7 Slugfest, arguably the single worst showing of his Cy Young season. the likes of Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Seth Smith and Manny Machado all have strong track records against Porcello. The Red Sox haven’t had a day off in their last ten and three of their last four starters didn’t get out of the sixth inning, leaving their bullpen somewhat ‘less than fresh’ this evening. The Red Sox lineup is clicking right now, pounding out 26 runs on the first four games of their road trip. They’ve gone Over the total by themselves four times in the last week and a half. Baltimore spot starter Alex Asher isn’t going to eat up innings and he’s coming off a truly ugly effort in his first start of the season, unable to get out of the third inning. Current Red Sox are hitting .308 against him with a .936 OPS, and they’ve already seen him once this year. And it’s surely worth noting that home plate ump Laz Diaz is 74-52 to the Over when calling balls and strikes over the past five seasons. Take the Over. |
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05-31-17 | Red Sox v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
Take Boston – Chicago White Sox OVER (#971-972) The Red Sox lineup is finally heating up. Their 13 run outburst last night was the fourth time in nine games that Boston has gone Over the total by themselves; averaging more than seven runs per game during that span, despite the absence of big bat Dustin Pedrioia. The White Sox are hitting too. After an extended slump, the White Sox have pounded out 19 runs over the last three games on this homestand. They’re coming off a 14 hit effort last night, a lineup that’s seeing the ball clearly right now. Red Sox manager John Farrell talked about how Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago played ‘extremely small’ last night due to the warm weather and the wind blowing out. The wind won’t be as strong tonight but it’s still going to be a warm evening on the South Side. More Farrell, following last night’s game: “I think we've played two games over 60 degrees at home. I'm not going to pin it all on the weather, but I would hope as we get into some more consistent warmer weather, we're going to see more impact on the baseball (offensively). Hopefully tonight was an example of it." The White Sox bullpen is a legitimate disaster area tonight after Jose Quintana lasted only 2.2 innings last night on the heels of David Holmberg’s four inning showing on Monday. One of the most effective bullpen’s in the majors is primed for some regression here; bad news with Mike Pelfrey on the hill. Pelfrey’s junkballing ways aren’t likely to shut down the Red Sox lineup, and he doesn’t eat up innings (only one six inning start all year), leaving the door open for some bullpen shenanigans late. The White Sox rank #1 in the majors with an OPS of .829 against opposing lefties (as well as leading MLB in hits and runs), a team worthy of support against southpaw starters. Drew Pomeranz, like Pelfrey, has been unable to eat innings, lasting into the fifth only once in his last four trips to the hill. This ain’t no pitcher’s duel! Take the Over. |
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05-30-17 | Rays v. Rangers OVER 10 | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Tampa Bay – Texas OVER (#917-918) So far this season, Global Life Park in Arlington has been below average in ESPN’s ‘Park Factor’; favoring pitchers in early season play. That’s not going to last as the weather heats up – this ballpark was the 6th friendliest for hitters last year, ranked #5 in 2015 and #7 in 2014. And we saw real signs of that last night, with these two teams combining to score 18 runs on 26 hits (11 for extra bases) while burning through nine different relief pitchers. Expect more of the same tonight! The Rangers just got slugger Adrian Beltre off the DL yesterday, plugged immediately back into the cleanup spot. The end result? An eight run outburst, their highest scoring game in the last ten days; in a game that flew Over the total with ample room to spare. The Rangers lineup was pretty darn potent on their last homestand as well, scoring 8, 9, 5, 6, 6, 5, 5 and 4 runs while closing out the homestand with four Overs in their final five games. Betting the Rangers over the total at home sure looks like a money winning strategy right now to this bettor! Tampa’s scoring gets deflated at home – the Trop has ranked as a ‘below MLB average’ hitters venue in each of the last three seasons; a field that hasn’t seen an above average hitters ranking since 2006! No surprise, then, that the Rays bats have produced runs in bunches AWAY from home of late, after closing out their last homestand by scoring only 13 runs in their final five games. The Rays proceeded to score 16 runs in three games at Minnesota, then ten in the series opener here last night, on the heels of a 6-0 run to the Over on their previous road trip, pounding out 39 runs in the process. Betting the Rays Over the total on the highway is a positive expectation strategy right now. Rays starter Matt Andriese is a fly ball pitcher coming off a 112 pitch effort in his last start. Current Rangers have hit .302 against him and in three previous career starts against Texas, Andriese has a 6.28 ERA. Rangers starter Nick Martinez has only one quality start in his last five tries while striking out only 13 batters during that entire span. Both bullpens got used extensively last night, leaving the door wide open for another late inning outburst this evening. And home plate ump Jerry Meals is an Over machine; 76-51 to Over when calling balls and strikes since the start of the 2013 campaign. Take the Over. |
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05-29-17 | Reds v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 2-17 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Cincinnati – Toronto OVER (#977-978) I don’t trust Reds starter Lisalverto Bonilla to get many outs today. Bonilla certainly isn’t manager Bryan Price’s first choice to start a game, but with starting pitchers Anthony DeSclafani, Brandon Finnegan, Homer Bailey and Amir Garrett all on the DL, it’s not like the Reds have a ton of good options for tonight’s game. Bonilla has bounced around numerous organizations since 2009. He got a couple of starts with the Rangers in 2014, and he’s had three here in Toronto this year; not the type of prospect who wows the scouts and gets chance after chance at the big league level. Bonilla’s biggest problems have been the gopher ball and control issues, a bad combination facing the suddenly resurgent Blue Jays lineup. Behind Bonilla, the Reds bullpen is wearing down from overuse, just like last year – they’ve thrown more innings than any bullpen in baseball. Only one of Cinci’s last five starters has gotten a single out past the fifth inning. Even though that pen has been decent of late, it’s by no means a trustworthy unit. Toronto’s Marcus Stroman has been very hittable of late, perhaps showing some aftereffects from his extensive participation in the World Baseball Classic before spring training. He hasn’t gotten into the seventh inning in any of his last five starts, and the better hitting teams are finding his pitches quite hittable. Behind Stroman, the Jays pen, too, has been overworked, ranked #1 in the AL in innings pitched. Both lineups are a threat to approach or exceed this total all by themselves. Toronto just got big bats Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki back off stints on the DL; primed for an offensive outburst today. Cincinnati’s hot hitting lineup has scored five runs or more nine times in their last dozen games while going 8-4 to the Over during that span. This game has a real ‘runs in bunches’ feel to it, primed to fly Over the total with room to spare. Big Ticket: Take the Over. |
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05-25-17 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | 4-0 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
Take Milwaukee – Arizona OVER (#959-960) Forget the pitching matchup for a moment – let’s talk about hitting! The Dbacks rank #3 in MLB in runs scored this season, and the Brewers rank #5 – we’re talking about two very potent offenses. From an OPS standpoint, they are #3 and #4 – both lineups feature plenty of power. And both lineups are in excellent current form. Arizona just pounded out 18 runs in a three game set vs. the White Sox, and they’ve scored five or more in eight of their last nine contests. The Brewers have scored 36 runs in their last five home games, and they’ve produced five runs or more in ten of their last 15 overall. Milwaukee, in particular, has been an Over machine all year, 29-16 to the Over including a 10-4-1 mark to the Over in those last fifteen contests. Arizona is coming off a true ‘bullpen’ game, leaving their pen depleted behind Robbie Ray tonight. The Brewers bash lefties like Ray, ranked #2 in the majors in OPS vs. southpaws. And it’s surely worth noting that while Ray pitched a gem last time out, that was against the light hitting Padres at Petco; basically the antithesis of facing Milwaukee in Milwaukee. It’s also worth noting that was Ray’s highest pitch count of the season. Brewers starter Zack Davies is a threat to get lit up every time he pitches. Davies ERA and his FIP are both more than a full run higher than league average, a big part of the reason why he’s cashed only one Under bet in nine previous starts this season. He’s been MUCH worse pitching at hitter friendly Miller Park (6.93 ERA, .343 batting average against). The Brewers bullpen behind him has 12 losses already, tied for second most in the majors. Expect fireworks! Take the Over. |
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05-22-17 | Angels v. Rays OVER 8 | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Tampa Bay – Los Angeles Angels OVER (#911-912) We’ve seen a big run of Overs in MLB in the past week, in large part due to circumstances like we find in Tampa Bay this evening – hot lineups facing off against overworked bullpens. And there’s ample reason to believe that both of these two teams will continue trending Over the total this evening. LA’s lineup has come back to life over the course of the last week. Sunday’s 12 run outburst against the Mets was the fifth time in six games that this squad has produced five runs or more. Angels starter Jake Odorizzi has a truly miserable track record against this lineup; on the wrong end of a 13-5 loss the last time LA came to town. Current Angels are hitting .359 against him with a .946 OPS. Behind Odorizzi, the Rays bullpen was used extensively in their series against the Yankees over the weekend; not a fresh unit tonight. Tampa’s lineup, too, has been really heating up of late, scoring 47 runs in their last seven games; producing five runs or more six times during that span. The Rays have been an Under-the-Radar Over machine of late, 8-1 to the Over in their last nine contests. LA starter JC Ramierz has shown some promise as an emerging young starter, but his track record against Tampa is downright ugly, with a .471 batting average against an a 1.353 OPS. Even in a short sample size, those numbers are problematic. And LA’s bullpen behind Ramirez is a big part of the reason that they’ve been trending Over of late too (4-1 to the Over L5, all four Overs producing 12 combined runs or more). Expect crooked numbers on the scoreboard in this one! Take the Over. |
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05-21-17 | Marlins v. Dodgers OVER 9 | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 4 h 28 m | Show | |
Take Miami – LA Dodgers OVER (#953-954) The Dodgers have scored at least six runs in each of their last four games, while pounding out 20 runs in the first three games of this homestand. No surprise, then, that this hot hitting lineup is in the midst of a run of Overs; 6-1 to the Over in their last seven contests.. Don’t expect that offensive barrage to end today against Vance Worley and the overworked Marlins bullpen behind him. Worley is the ultimate ‘tired retread’ for a last place team. The Phillies, Twins, Pirates, Orioles and Nationals have all given up on him over the last five years. He wasn’t good in spring training, nor was he dominant at AAA New Orleans, but Don Mattingly doesn’t have many options with multiple starters on the DL. I’m not expecting his 2017 MLB debut to be particularly successful. Behind Worley, Miami’s weak bullpen is on life support – only one of their last six starters has finished the sixth inning. It’s surely worth noting that the bullpen has combined for a dismal ratio of nine losses to four saves. Miami, too, has been trending Over, despite the fact that their lineup hasn’t been producing on a consistent basis. In fact, Miami has cashed four Over bets in their last six games in which the offense has produced two runs or less, a testament to how weak that pitching staff has been. The Marlins lineup finally got going last night, flying Over the total by themselves. And there’s ample reason to think they’ll be able to hit Brandon McCarthy today. My clients and I cashed an underdog winner betting against McCarthy at San Francisco in his last start – his first back from the DL. He really labored in that game, giving up six runs while throwing a season high 105 pitches. LA used their bullpen extensively last night, setting the stage for some late inning shenanigans on both sides, should we need them. Last, but not least, it’s rarely difficult to make a case for the Over when Paul Nauert is calling balls and strikes. Nauert went 19-11 to the Over and his 62.5% strike percentage in seven previous games behind home plate this season ranks on the low side. Take the Over. |
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05-19-17 | Phillies v. Pirates OVER 9 | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia – Pittsburgh OVER (#953-954) My clients and I cashed a winning bet against Jeremy Hellickson on the run line in Chicago earlier this month. Let me start with a brief excerpt from that write-up: “That’s bad news for Jeremy Hellickson, who has been living on borrowed time. Hellickson was more lucky than good in his last outing against Miami, and his fly ball tendencies work against him here. “ ‘Living on borrowed time’ was an appropriate metaphor for Hellickson’s situation at the time. He went 4-0 with a 1.80 in April, but just about every advanced metric stat in existence said to expect a regression. That’s exactly what’s happened. Hellickson has allowed 12 earned runs – including seven dingers – over his last three starts while failing to record a single out in the sixth inning in any of those games. Behind Hellickson, the Phillies bullpen is spent following an ugly week in Texas; a bullpen that has been a big part of the reason why Philadelphia is 7-2 to the Over in their last nine ballgames. That’s bad news against the suddenly resurgent Pirates lineup, averaging just shy of six runs per game over their last six contests, including a ten run outburst last night. But with Trevor Williams on the hill for Pittsburgh, six runs might not be enough for the win tonight! Williams didn’t win a starting job in spring training; and none of his three spot starts over the past two seasons has been pretty; not a guy who has shown any ability to get through a batting order multiple times. The Pirates bullpen, too, is shaky here, both in terms of current rest and current form. On a warm night in Pittsburgh with the wind blowing out to right field, expect both squads to put some crooked numbers on the scoreboard. Take the Over. |
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05-17-17 | Reds v. Cubs OVER 11.5 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Take Cincinnati - Chicago Cubs OVER (#957-958) The Cubs aren’t involved in many pitcher’s duels these days. Chicago is 20-7 to the Over in their last 27 games, including a 10-1 mark to the Over in their last eleven at Wrigley Field. Only the Brewers, Mets and Rays have cashed more Over tickets than the Cubs here in 2017. Overs begat more Overs in MLB. Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. Overworked pitching staffs and struggling bullpens stay that way too, until proven otherwise. Make no mistake about it – Chicago’s run of Overs is a streak worth riding! When the wind is blowing out at Wrigley, the ball carries like it does in few other ballparks in MLB. And the wind is blowing out tonight, a 20 mph wind blowing out to left field, with gametime temperatures expected near 80 degrees. We saw seven home runs in similar conditions last night and tonight’s game features similar potential. Kyle Hendricks hasn’t won a start at Wrigley yet this season, with an ERA more than a full run higher pitching at home. His FIP is a full run higher than it was last year. Joe Maddon used most of his best bullpen arms behind Hendricks last night. Scott Feldman’s quote about pitching at Wrigley stands out here: “You can't control the wind, unfortunately, or else I'd have it blow in every time. You can't really re-invent yourself just because the wind's blowing a certain way. Just try to make pitches and hope they hit it on the ground and right at somebody." Cinci’s bullpen behind Feldman got lit up last night, leaving the door open for some late inning shenanigans should we need them……Take the OVER. |
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05-14-17 | Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 8 | 0-5 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 49 m | Show | |
Take St Louis – Chicago Cubs OVER (#907-908) The Cubs aren’t involved in many pitcher’s duels these days. Chicago is 19-6 to the Over in their last 25 games. Only the Brewers have cashed more Over tickets than the Cubs here in 2017. The Cardinals have been a consistent Over team as well – they’ve cashed only 12 Under bets since opening day. Only the Mets have cashed fewer Unders than St Louis here in 2017. The Cards are 14-3 to the Over in their last 17 ballgames. Overs begat more Overs in MLB. Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. Overworked pitching staffs and struggling bullpens stay that way too, until proven otherwise. So when two teams meet in the midst of a run of Overs, it’s not just a meaningless trend – it’s a streak worth riding! Jake Arrieta was the best pitcher in baseball in 2015, right through the All Star Break last year. But his ERA went up a full run in his 13 post-break starts in 2016, and he notched only one quality start in four postseason tries. After two solid starts to open the season this year, Arrieta has been hit hard in each of his last four trips to the hill. He’s not the same pitcher right now, plain and simple, off back-2-back 220+ inning seasons. Adam Wainwright was a Top 3 finisher in the Cy Young voting on four different occasions between 2009 and 2014. That was then, this is now. Since losing most of the 2015 season due to an Achilles tear, Wainwright, too, hasn’t been the same guy. Wainwright closed out last season with only four quality starts in his final 13 tries. This year, he’s still looking for his first quality start after seven tries. And this quote following his last ugly start against the Marlins, a game where he didn’t throw hit cutter even once: “It was on timeout. When it's done disobeying, it will be out of timeout, just like my children." On a warm afternoon at Busch Stadium with the wind blowing out to left, the Cubs are a threat to go Over this total by themselves. It’s the same story with the Cardinals potent lineup; a lineup that has pounded out five runs or more seven times in their last eight ballgames. Even home plate umpire Bruce Dreckman has a legitimate Over bias with his relatively narrow strike zone! Take the OVER. |
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05-12-17 | Braves v. Marlins OVER 9 | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta – Miami OVER (#901-902) The betting markets aren’t going to pay much attention to infield defense. In this particular game, the markets are missing something that legitimately matters! Based on the best defensive advanced metric stats available (PADE – Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency), Miami’s defense has been as good as any in baseball so far this season. But their team has been riddled with injuries over the past week. Infielders Miguel Rojas, Martin Prado and Aeiny Hechavarria have all gone on the DL, leaving Don Mattingly very short on infield options. That’s particularly bad news with Jose Urena on the hill, because Urena pitches to contact, not a strikeout guy. Urena has a terrible track record against Atlanta, with current Braves hitting .417 against him with a 1.157 OPS. Both of his appearances against the Braves last year were downright ugly, including a three inning start on this field back in September. With a very shaky defense behind Urena (and the suspect bullpen), no surprise here if the Braves break out of their hitting funk tonight. Michael Foltynewicz doesn’t have a particularly good track record against the Marlins lineup either, with Miami’s current players hitting .298 against him in their respective careers. Foltynewicz allowed 13 hits and eight runs in just over six innings of work in two starts against the Marlins last year. Hs current form is not pretty, blasted for eleven runs in ten innings of work against the Brewers and Cardinals in his last two trips to the hill. And the Braves bullpen behind him ranks #13 out of 15 NL teams in ERA, more than capable of a late game implosion should we need it! Take the Over. |
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05-10-17 | Orioles v. Nationals OVER 7.5 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Baltimore – Washington OVER (#919-920) The Orioles bullpen is a mess. The Nationals bullpen is a mess. Even if BOTH starters shut down these two hot lineups, this game still has the potential to fly Over the total late, just like it did in last night’s thriller when a 1-1 game in the eighth inning ended up cashing Over 8.5 bets! I’m not convinced that either starter is coming through with a shutdown effort today. Stephen Strasburg is in the process of getting Dusty Baker’d, coming off the single highest pitch count game of his CAREER last Friday at Philly. Strasburg did have one start back in 2012 with an equal pitch count. It’s worth noting that despite all of those pitches, he failed to make it out of the sixth inning and had a season high in walks. I am not expecting vintage Strasburg tonight. Behind him, the Nats bullpen now ranks dead last in the NL with a 5.47 ERA after last night’s debacle, and the bullpen is anything BUT fresh here. The Orioles have used up their bullpen too following last night’s extra inning affair. They haven’t had a day off since April, and had a pair of starts in the last week where the bullpen was needed for 7+ innings. Closer Zack Britton is on the DL, leaving the situation more than a bit dicey for Buck Showalter in the latter stages, as we saw again last night. Orioles starter Wade Miley had TWO line drives hit off him in the first inning of his last start, resulting in a very early exit. He’s facing the highest scoring lineup in baseball today, and a team that has hit opposing lefties to the tune of a 1.013 OPS this season, by FAR the most potent lineup in MLB against southpaws. Current Nationals have hit .375 against Miley in a decent sample size of 96 at bats. On a warm spring night in DC, expect some crooked numbers on the scoreboard. Take the Over. |
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05-09-17 | Tigers v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
Take Detroit – Arizona OVER (#979-980) It’s not hard to make a case for betting the Over at Chase Field, especially when the roof is open, like it will be tonight when the Dbacks take on the Tigers. Arizona has only cashed five Under bets in their first 17 home games. They’ve scored four runs or more in 13 of those 17 home games, ranked #4 in the NL in runs scored, with all seven of their every day regulars enjoying an on base percentage of .315 or higher. All of this is bad news for Justin Verlander and the Tigers bullpen behind him. Verlander has seen just about every one of his advanced metrics stats decline here in 2017 – his strikeout rate is down, his swinging strike rate is down, his ground ball rate is down and his walk rate is up! The fly ball rate is of particular concern here, facing a potent lineup on a field where fly balls tend to carry with the roof open. In three road starts this season, Verlander has an 8.80 ERA, in sharp contrast to his 0.86 at home in Detroit! Behind Verlander, the Tigers bullpen ranks dead last in the majors in both ERA and FIP, coming off a series in Oakland in which closer Franky Rodriguez blew a pair of save chances. No surprise here if the D-backs approach or exceed this total all by themselves tonight. Robbie Ray’s advanced metric stats are rock solid, with one notable exception – his walk rate. The Tigers have a patient, potent lineup with 115 walks already this year. All of their key hitters were taking excellent at bats in their series at Oakland to open the trip. Since Miguel Cabrera returned to the lineup on May 2nd, the Tigers have scored five runs or more four times in five games; a lineup that’s starting to click. Arizona’s bullpen behind Ray isn’t loaded with aces either, leaving the door open for some late fireworks should we need them! Take the Over. |
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05-05-17 | Red Sox v. Twins OVER 9 | 3-4 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota – Boston OVER (#969-970) Very quietly, waaaaaaay Under the Radar, a Minnesota Twins team that cashed only two Over bets in their first 13 games of the season has morphed into an Over machine. The results don’t lie. Minnesota is 6-0 to the Over in their last six ballgames; every one of them producing ten combined runs or more. And this is an Over streak that really has the potential to be the gift that keeps on giving! The Twins starting pitching is mediocre on a good day, to put it bluntly. As a result, their bullpen is already getting worn down, throwing eleven innings during their just concluded three game set with the A’s. The Twins young lineup is talented and hot, pounding out 5 , 7, 9, 7, 6, 3 and 8 runs in their last seven contests. On a beautiful evening in Minnesota, with gametime temperatures expected in the 70’s, there’s ample reason to expect the Twins lineup to keep hitting. Boston is primed to hit this evening as well. The Red Sox lineup is World Series caliber, and just about all of their big bats are in good current form. That’s bad news for struggling Phil Hughes, who has been lit up three times in his last four starts. Hughes has allowed current Red Sox to hit .356 against him with a .952 OPS. Red Sox starter Eduardo Rodriguez is an advanced metrics correction waiting to happen; a hurler with a FIP more than a run and a half higher than his ERA. Current Twins are hitting .317 against him with an .868 OPS, and he failed to make it out of the fifth inning in his lone start at Target Field last year. Behind him, the Red Sox bullpen is in no great shape following intense series with the Yankees, Cubs and Orioles back-2-back-2-back, without a single day off in between. Take the Over. |
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05-03-17 | Phillies v. Cubs OVER 6.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia – Chicago Cubs OVER (#957-958) Yes, it’s going to be a cool evening in Chicago. But that’s not enough to keep me off this Over! The last five Phillies games have all produced eight runs or more – no pitcher’s duels with this team right now. In fact, the Phillies have only played one game in their last 14 tries with less than seven runs scored between the two teams. The Cubs, too, aren’t involved in many pitcher’s duels these days. Chicago is 12-2 to the Over in their last 14 games. They haven’t produced less than seven combined runs in their last seven games at Wrigley Field, a streak that dates all the way back to April 15th. The Cubs are a threat to go Over this total by themselves, just like they did last night. Chicago ranks #4 in the NL in runs scored despite the fact that no everyday starter is hitting better than .291, while big bats Ben Zobrist and Kyle Schwarber are both off to ice cold starts. It’s surely worth noting that Schwarber got off the schnied with a three run bomb last night. And the Phillies lineup, too, is above average in the National League; a team that is consistently taking good swings on their current road trip. Jake Arrieta was the best pitcher in baseball in 2015, right through the All Star Break last year. But his ERA went up a full run in his 13 post-break starts in 2016, and he notched only one quality start in four postseason tries. After two solid starts to open the season this year, Arrieta has been hit hard in each of his last three trips to the hill. He’s not the same pitcher right now, plain and simple, off back-2-back 220+ inning seasons. Behind him, the Cubs used several key bullpen arms last night, including closer Wade Davis. Phillies starter Jerad Eichoff isn’t getting many ground ball outs these days, bad news against the Cubs fearsome group of power bats Eickhoff has been hit hard in each of his last two road starts and his pitch counts have skyrocketed over his last two starts overall; unable to consistently find the strike zone. The Phillies bullpen got banged around last night, more than capable of a late game meltdown should we need it. Take the Over. |
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04-29-17 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
Take Arizona – Colorado OVER (#959-960) The betting markets have gone nuts betting this game Under the total in early action on Saturday, driving a total that opened at 9.5 down as low as 8.5 in most locations as I do this write-up. Clearly, I disagree with the ‘sharp’ money in this one. The Chase Field roof was closed last night. It is expected to be open tonight. There’s a HUGE difference in how the ball carries between when the roof is open (it carries) and when the roof is closed (those home run balls tend to die at the warning track). In the six games that the roof has been open on this homestand, Arizona has scored 13, 11, 7, 9, 5 and 6 runs while going 5-1 to the Over. That is most assuredly an under-the-radar angle worth backing again here! The Rockies lineup is pounding out runs in bunches too. Yes, they were held to three runs (roof closed) last night, but prior to that, Colorado had pounded out 6, 12, 8, 8, 12, 4 and 5 runs in their previous seven contests, going 6-1 to the Over during that span. Zack Greinke still carries an ‘ace’ level pricetag, and he’s coming off back-2-back gems. Of course, both of those gems came against the light hitting Padres, and Greinke is 4-1 to the Over in his five starts this season. Greinke has struggled against this Colorado lineup, with key bats Charlie Blackmun, Carlos Gonzalez, Gerardo Parra, Mark Reynolds and Trevor Story all enjoyed sustained success against him. Behind Greinke, Arizona’s bullpen has been mediocre at best, more than capable of a late game implosion. The Rockies bullpen got destroyed earlier in the week in their series against the Giants, a suspect unit tonight. That’s bad news with Tyler Anderson on the hill. Anderson has shown extreme vulnerability to the big inning; allowing at least four runs and at least one homer in each of his five previous starts (4-1 to the Over). Current D-backs have hit .500 against him with a 1.283 OPS (short sample size, but still….). Expect some crooked numbers on the scoreboard in this one! Take the OVER. |
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04-25-17 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 7.5 | 1-0 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
Take Pittsburgh – Chicago Cubs OVER (#953-954) Not to get all Biblical on you, but the fact remains: MLB Overs begat more Overs. Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. Weak starting pitching leads to overworked bullpens which leads to more late game bullpen implosions. MLB totals are one of the rare areas in sports where yesterday’s results have a legitimate impact on today’s outcome. Which brings us to the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs opened the season sluggishly on offense, with the cold weather at Wrigley. They’re not cold any more, pounding out 56 runs over the last seven games while going 7-0 to the Over during that span. They had 17 hits and took nine walks last night, showing patience, poise and power! Chicago is a legit threat to approach or exceed this total all by themselves again tonight! Gerritt Cole’s only start against the Cubs on this field last year wasn’t pretty: six runs allowed in 4.2 innings of work. Cole hasn’t been eating up innings; yet to record a single out in the 7th this season. And he’s been struggling with the gopher ball, including two more home runs allowed in his last start, bad news against those potent Cubs bats. Behind Cole, the Pirates bullpen is a mess after three of their last four starters failed to finish the fifth inning. Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks basically came out of nowhere to throw 190 regular season innings with a 2.13 ERA and 0.98 WHIP last year. He followed that up with five postseason starts as well, a career high (by far) in innings pitched. No surprise, then, that we’ve already seen a major decline. Hendricks fastball velocity is down, opposing hitters are smacking his sinker (a pitch they couldn’t hit last year), and Hendricks next quality start will be his first of the young campaign. With a 4.40 career ERA and a .300 batting average against at PNC Park, facing a Pirates lineup that saw him ten days ago, look for Hendricks’ mediocrity to continue here. The Cubs bullpen behind him has four blown saves and four losses already – the door should be open for a late rally here, should we need one. Take the Over. |
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04-11-17 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 8 | 5-6 | Win | 105 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
Take the LA Angels – Texas OVER (#969-970) I want my money ON the Angels lineup and AGAINST Tyler Skaggs. That sets us up for an Over wager in Anaheim this evening. The Angels lineup has come out of the gate clicking on all cylinders. They lead the AL in runs scored, batting average, on base percentage and OPS, a far cry from the lineup that ranked below the league average in every one of those categories last year. Rangers starter Cole Hamels: “I know Anaheim has tremendous hitters and they're a lot better lineup than they had last year. You look at the strength that their lineup possesses and how they're going to attack them. I need to establish getting quick outs.” Easier said than done! The Rangers bullpen behind Hamels has been a gas can thusfar, allowing 17 runs in just 21 innings of work. Tyler Skaggs was a top prospect when he was drafted, but Tommy John surgery cost him the 2015 campaign and he wasn’t the same pitcher upon his return last year; struggling with both walks and home runs allowed. Those same struggles were on display in his 2017 debut against Oakland – nine fly ball outs compared to only two on the ground, while allowing one home run and three walks. The Rangers are hitting out of the gate, pounding out 19 runs in their three game set over the A’s last weekend and producing five runs or more in four of their first six contests. LA’s bullpen behind Skaggs is more than a little bit dicey. Put it all together and we can expect plenty of crooked numbers on the scoreboard in Anaheim this evening. Take the Over. |
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04-06-17 | Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 7.5 | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Chicago – St Louis OVER (#925-926) (Abbreviated write-up for this early start game) Simple concept here. We’ve got two right handed ‘fly ball’ pitchers facing off against two lineups loaded with potent left handed bats. We’ve got a strong, steady wind in the 20 mph range blowing out to right field. We’ve got a very reasonable total of 7.5 to work with on what looks like a fine afternoon for baseball. Last, but not least, home plate umpire Quinn Wolcott has a narrow strike zone. He’s been calling balls and strikes at the big league level since 2013, and he’s yet to have a season in which he’s called more Unders than Overs. Take the Over. |
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04-04-17 | Padres v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
Take the LA Dodgers – San Diego OVER (#907-908) The Padres gave up 14 runs on opening day. With the worst starting staff in the majors, we can expect San Diego to endure more than their fair share of ugly defeats this year. San Diego’s bullpen is every bit as problematic as their starting staff; a unit that allowed five earned runs in 4.2 innings of work yesterday, with four different relievers getting used up. Today’s matchup isn’t any better for the Padres pitching staff with that same ‘gas can’ bullpen coming behind Clayton Richard this time around. Here’s what Padres manager Andy Green had to say about Richard facing the Dodgers lineup: “He’s a guy who relies heavily on the sinker and you know this is a team (LA) that honestly handles sinkers well, so he's got a challenge in front of him…..” It’s a challenge that I don’t expect Richard to pass. It’s going to be very expensive to bet against the Padres this year. Clayton Kershaw was -360 on opening day; Kenta Maeda is in the -225 range as I do my write-up. But there’s no extra juice to lay betting these Padres games Over the total; my preferred method of fading San Diego right now. Let’s not forget that for as bad as the Padres pitching staff is, this team has a good handful of solid bats. It’s important to note that the Padres didn’t quit in the latter stages yesterday, taking good at bats right through the ninth inning against the modestly suspect Dodgers bullpen. No surprise here if we get to eight runs rather early in this one, and even if we don’t, the stage is set for some late inning shenanigans to help push this game Over the total. Take the Over. |
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04-03-17 | Mariners v. Astros OVER 8 | 0-3 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
Take Houston – Seattle OVER (#963-964) King Felix faced the Astros twice last year. Neither game was pretty – he allowed 19 hits and 14 runs in just ten combined innings of work. Hernandez made one start against the Astros in 2015. It was the worst start of his career: eight runs allowed in 1/3 of an inning. For a guy who has seen his velocity drop significantly over the last few years, this former ace has a big name, but he’s an easy fade against the potent Astros lineup that is more than capable of approaching or exceeding this total all by themselves. Dallas Keuchel won the AL Cy Young Award following the 2015 season. Don’t expect him to win another one anytime soon, a guy who overachieved dramatically to earn that award! Keuchel regressed mightily last year, finishing with a 0.5 WAR following a 7.2 WAR in 2015. Current Mariners have hit him well, with a .293 average and seven dingers in 147 at bats against him. These are two downright scary lineups right now, after an offseason filled with activity for both squads. And, as we saw very clearly on Sunday, MLB bullpens aren’t primed to come in on opening day and shut quality opposing lineups down. We’ve got legit ‘Slugfest’ potential early here, and even if that doesn’t come through, we’ve got a solid shot to get some late inning shenanigans in this one, sending it Over the posted total. Take the Over. |
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09-12-16 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 9 | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
Take Texas – Houston OVER (#925-926) There’s a method to my madness when it comes to riding totals streaks – particularly Over streaks – throughout the course of the MLB season. When a team is streaking Over, there’s ample fodder to expect that trend to continue. Overs legitimately create more Overs. Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. Tired, ineffective bullpens are more likely to struggle when they get overused. And that’s BOTH of these teams right now – two hot lineups and two dicey bullpens, unable to quench many late inning fires. The results don’t lie. These two teams played three games last weekend, producing 13 runs or more all three times. Texas is 11-2 to the Over in their last 13 ballgames. Their lineup is on fire, pounding out 90 runs in that 13 game stretch. Their overused bullpen is a disaster right now, a big part of the reason why they’ve allowed five runs or more six times in their last eight ballgames. Houston, too, is trending Over, despite a rough weekend offensively against the Cubs strong pitching staff; averaging just shy of six runs per game in the seven contests prior to the Chicago series. Neither starter is a likely candidate to throw a gem this evening. Houston’s Doug Fister has a terrible track record against Texas. Current Rangers are hitting .314 and slugging .500 against Fister in more than 200 career at bats against him. Fister’s last three starts have been awful, allowing 18 runs while failing to get out of the fifth inning in any of those games. Texas scored eight runs in 3.1 innings against him last weekend. Texas’s Martin Perez has allowed current Astros to hit .310 against him in more than 110 career at bats. Perez, too, is struggling, allowing four runs or more three times in his last four trips to the hill. The Astros battered him for five runs on his last visit to Minute Maid Park. Put it all together and we can expect another high scoring affair between these two potent lineups. Take the Over. |
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09-08-16 | Rangers v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Seattle – Texas OVER (#913-914) There’s a method to my madness when it comes to riding totals streaks – particularly Over streaks – throughout the course of the MLB season. When a team is streaking Over, there’s ample fodder to expect that trend to continue. Overs legitimately create more Overs. Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. Tired, ineffective bullpens are more likely to struggle when they get overused. And that’s BOTH of these teams right now – two hot lineups and two miserable bullpens, unable to quench any late inning fires. The results don’t lie. Texas is 9-0 to the Over in their last nine ballgames. Their lineup is on fire, pounding out 75 runs in that nine game stretch. Their bullpen is a disaster right now, a big part of the reason why they’ve allowed 29 runs to the Mariners in the first three games of this series. Seattle is 8-1 to the Over in their last nine contests. Their ineffective bullpen has been throwing gas on fires consistently – opponents have scored seven runs or more seven times in that nine game stretch. But their lineup has pounded out 45 runs on the first six games of this homestand, clicking on all cylinders. Neither starter is a likely candidate to throw a gem this evening. Derek Holland has a 5.70 EA on the road (in sharp contrast to his 3.32 at the Ballpark in Arlington), and he gave up three dingers in five innings of an ugly showing here at Safeco on his last visit. Taijuan Walker has a terrible track record against Texas . Current Rangers are hitting .337 against him in more than 100 career at bats. He gave up six runs in five innings in his last game against the Rangers. Walker was sent down to AAA in June, but he hasn’t been much better since his return, with a post-All Star break ERA of 9.17. Walker couldn’t make it out of the first inning last time out, not a positive sign moving forward. These two teams are 8-1 to the Over in the last nine meetings since June, a trend worth riding again tonight. Take the Over. |
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09-07-16 | Royals v. Twins OVER 8.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota – Kansas City OVER (#975-976) I’m going to keep cutting and pasting excerpts from the same basic write-up that I’ve been using throughout this run of Twins Overs, a consistent moneymaker for myself and my clients. The numbers have been adjusted to reflect current realities “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it! My clients and I have been riding the Twins Over train and there’s absolutely no reason to jump off! The Twins bats are hot right now, pounding out 50 runs over their last eight games while scoring four or more 12 times in their last 14 contests. This certainly isn’t new or different for Minnesota, by far the #1 Over team in baseball this year. The results don’t lie. 139 games into the season, the Twins have cashed a grand total of 45 Under bets. They’re 13-2 to the Over in their last 15 games.” “Overs legitimately create more Overs. Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. Tired, ineffective bullpens are more likely to struggle when they get overused. And that’s the Twins right now – a hot lineup and a miserable bullpen, unable to quench any late inning fires.” “The Royals bats are almost as hot as the Twins bats right now, pounding out four runs or more eleven times in their last twelve games while averaging six runs per game during that span following last night’s 10 run outburst. KC, too, is trending Over; 9-1-1- to the Over in their last eleven ballgames. And the ball has been flying out of Target Field all week. After another five home run game last night, we’ve seen a whopping 23 home runs in the first six games of this homestand, with every one of those games producing 13 runs or more.” Royals starter Danny Duffy has been hit hard in each of his last two starts, showing signs of wearing down following an impressive run over the summer. Twins starter Kyle Gibson just got bombed for six runs in five innings against KC on this field last month, and his ERA is above 7.00 since the beginning of August. Minnesota’s bullpen behind him handed us an Over cash last night, live to do it again tonight should we need it. Take the Over. |
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09-06-16 | Royals v. Twins OVER 9 | 10-3 | Win | 110 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota – Kansas City OVER (#923-924) If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it! My clients and I have been riding the Twins Over train and there’s absolutely no reason to jump off! Let me start with an excerpt from yesterday’s write-up. The numbers have been adjusted to reflect the results of Monday’s game: “The Twins bats are hot right now, pounding out 47 runs over their last seven games while scoring four or more 12 times in their last 13 contests. This certainly isn’t new or different for Minnesota, by far the #1 Over team in baseball this year. The results don’t lie. 138 games into the season, the Twins have cashed a grand total of 45 Under bets. They’re 12-2 to the Over in their last 14 games.” “Overs legitimately create more Overs. Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. Tired, ineffective bullpens are more likely to struggle when they get overused. And that’s the Twins right now – a red hot lineup and a miserable bullpen, unable to quench any late inning fires.” The Royals bats are almost as hot as the Twins bats right now, pounding out four runs or more ten times in their last eleven games while averaging just shy of six runs per game during that span following last night’s 11 run outburst. KC, too, is trending Over; 8-1-1- to the Over in their last ten ballgames. And the ball has been flying out of Target Field, with a whopping 23 home runs in the first five games of this homestand, with every one of those games producing 13 runs or more. Both bullpens are worn down, with KC’s pen showing legitimate signs of decline and Minnesota’s pen ranking among the worst in baseball. KC starter Dillon Gee came out of the bullpen over the weekend – affecting his normal prep routine – and he was blasted for 11 hits and five earned runs in his last visit to Target Field. Twins starter Erwin Santana has been hit hard in each of his last two starts and he was bombed for six earned runs on nine hits in just 3.1 innings of work in his lone previous start against KC on this field this year. Expect more offensive fireworks tonight! Take the Over. |
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09-05-16 | Royals v. Twins OVER 9.5 | 11-5 | Win | 102 | 3 h 33 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota – Kansas City OVER (#969-970) My clients and I have been riding the Twins Over train and there’s absolutely no reason to jump off! Let me start with an excerpt from yesterday’s write-up supporting the Over in a 13-11 Slugfest that cashed our winning bet by the fourth inning. The numbers have been adjusted to reflect the results of Sunday’s game: “The Twins bats are hot right now, pounding out 42 runs over their last six games while scoring four or more 11 times in their last dozen contests. This certainly isn’t new or different for Minnesota, by far the #1 Over team in baseball this year. The results don’t lie. 137 games into the season, the Twins have cashed a grand total of 45 Under bets. They’re 11-2 to the Over in their last 13 games.” Overs legitimately create more Overs. Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. Tired, ineffective bullpens are more likely to struggle when they get overused. And that’s the Twins right now – a red hot lineup and a miserable bullpen, unable to quench any late inning fires. An exhausted bullpen is particularly bad news with Jose Berrios on the hill. He’s been called up and sent back down to AAA twice previously; notching only one quality start in nine tries and throwing only 1.1 innings of work after the fifth inning for those nine starts combined. The Royals lineup bashed him pretty good less than three weeks ago, so Berrios won’t even have the ‘first look at a young hurler’ advantage. The Royals bats are almost as hot as the Twins bats right now, pounding out four runs or more nine times in their last ten games while averaging 5.6 runs per game during that span. But KC’s normally elite bullpen is showing signs of wear and tear. Joakim Soria blew the lead on Sunday after Peter Moylan and Wade Davis cost them the game on Friday. Starter Ian Kennedy has shown significant signs of regression in his last two starts after a surprisingly strong run immediately following the All Star Break. When Kennedy last travelled to Target Field in May, he got hit hard; primed for similar results in afternoon action on Labor Day. Take the Over. |
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09-04-16 | White Sox v. Twins OVER 10.5 | 13-11 | Win | 100 | 3 h 10 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota – Chicago White Sox OVER (#919-920) The first three games of this series have all flown Over the total with room to spare; each game producing at least 13 runs. This certainly isn’t new or different for the Minnesota Twins, by far the #1 Over team in baseball this year. The results don’t lie. 136 games into the season, the Twins have cashed a grand total of 45 Under bets. They’re 10-2 to the Over in their last dozen games. And these divisional battles between Chicago and Minnesota have done nothing but cash Over tickets: five straight Overs and seven Overs in their last eight meetings. Expect another high scoring affair on Sunday. Neither starter is trustworthy. Andrew Albers lasted only two innings in his MLB starting debut last week; blasted by the Indians. And the White Sox have been bashing lefties, averaging nearly a full run per game more against opposing southpaw starters. Anthony Ranaudo has a 7.29 ERA in four starts with the White Sox while going 4-0 to the Over, allowing six home runs in just 21 innings of work. Good organizations – Boston and Texas – have given up on him over the past two seasons. Both bullpens are a mess following this series of Slugfests. Both lineups are in excellent current form, combining for 42 runs in the first three games of this series. Put it all together and we can expect another wild one at Target Field this afternoon, primed to fly Over the total with relative ease. Take the Over. |
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09-02-16 | White Sox v. Twins OVER 9 | 11-4 | Win | 106 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota – Chicago White Sox OVER (#921-922) Chicago’s Carlos Rodon had a strong August; throwing five quality starts in five tries. But Rodon has been throwing a ton of pitches: 100+ in all five August outings, a heavy workload for a hurler who is already approaching his innings count from last year. And Rodon has not fared well against this hot Minnesota lineup. In his last two starts against Minnesota, he was hit hard both times, allowing nine earned runs (including four homers) in just 12 innings of work. The Twins bats are hot right now, pounding out 16 runs over their last three games while scoring four or more eight times in their last nine contests (7-2 to the Over during that span). That is neither new nor different for the #1 Over team in all of baseball this year, cashing only 45 Under bets in their first 134 games. It’s surely worth noting that the Twins average more than a half run game more against opposing southpaws than they do against righties. And the White Sox bullpen behind Rodon is mediocre on a good day, more than capable of a late inning meltdown should we need it. Minnesota’s Kyle Gibson has been an Over machine of late, cashing Over tickets in each of his last six starts since the beginning of August, with a 6.62 ERA and a dismal 19-17 strikeout to walk ratio during that span. And behind Gibson, the Twins dismal bullpen is a big part of the reason why they’re the #1 Over team in baseball this year. If we don’t see runs in bunches early here, expect plenty of offense late! Take the Over. |
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08-30-16 | Twins v. Indians OVER 9.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland – Minnesota OVER (#971-972) The Twins pitching has gone from bad to worse in recent weeks, as injuries and ineffectiveness have decimated their starters and their bullpen. The results don’t lie. Minnesota has allowed at least eight runs six times in their last seven games, cashing Over bets in all six of those games. They haven’t had a day off during that span. Their bullpen cost them another game last night, now ranked #14 out of 15 AL teams in bullpen ERA. That makes Andrew Albers a clear ‘go-against’ hurler tonight. The 30 year old made ten starts with Minnesota in 2013, but he didn’t stick in the big leagues. The Twins gave up on him, the Blue Jays gave up on him, and he’s been putting up mediocre numbers at AAA all year. I don’t trust him the first time through the batting order – ‘nasty stuff’ and ‘Andrew Albers’ aren’t used in the same sentence very often. And when it comes to the second or third time through the order, it could get ugly against an Indians team that can hit lefties just fine. Cleveland should have ample opportunity to feast against the same Twins bullpen that everybody else has been feasting on in recent weeks. Minnesota is hitting, pounding out 21 runs in three games at Toronto (at least six in every game) prior to the start of this series in Cleveland. They’ve already pounded struggling Indians starter Josh Tomlin twice in three tries this year, hitting five home runs in those three ballgames. ‘Struggling’ isn’t a strong enough adjective to describe Tomlin’s current woes – he’s been nothing short of awful: 0-5 with a 10.80 ERA in five previous August starts; allowing a whopping nine home runs in just 25 innings of work. And like Minnesota’s bullpen, the Indians bullpen is anything but fresh after last night’s extra inning affair, on the heels of short stints from Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar over the weekend. Expect some real offensive fireworks tonight! Take the Over |
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08-27-16 | Cubs v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 28 m | Show | |
Take LA Dodgers – Chicago Cubs OVER (#903-904) The Cubs are swinging hot bats right now, pounding out five runs or more in four straight contests. Most importantly, they haven’t been completely shut down in weeks, scoring four runs or more in 15 straight games. Chicago rallied from behind in the latter stages last night, and this is a quote I love to see when betting Overs, from red hot slugger Kris Bryant: "We never give up. We always believe we can win in the final innings." The Dodgers are swinging some hot bats too, with 68 runs scored over their last dozen games; more than 5.5 runs per contest. No surprise, then, that LA has only cashed three Under bets in those twelve games. Chicago, too, is trending Over, cashing only two Under bets in their last eight contest; an emerging trend worth riding again today. Neither bullpen is fresh off last night’s extra inning affair. And both starting pitchers have shown some vulnerability, particularly against the type of lineups they’ll face today. Cubs starter Jason Hammel is 8-1 with a 1.79 ERA at Wrigley, but he has given up ten runs twice in his last three road starts, including his last outing at Colorado. Current Dodgers including Howie Kendrick, Justin Turner and Chase Utley all have good track records against him. The Cubs have been pounding lefties like LA’s Julio Urias, averaging just shy of 5.5 runs per game against opposing southpaws. Urias won’t eat up innings – he’s lasted six full innings only twice in his 11 previous big league starts. This will be the Cubs second look at him and they fared pretty well the first time: eight hits (including three dingers) and six runs in five innings of work. We don’t need real offensive fireworks to get up and over 7.5 runs today, but I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if we get them. Take the Over. |
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08-25-16 | Giants v. Dodgers OVER 8 | 4-0 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
Take San Francisco – LA Dodgers OVER (#907-908) The book on the Dodgers is that they can’t hit lefties, and their season long numbers do show a negative bias towards southpaws. That’s a part of the Under money that showed this morning – we’ve seen Under $$ when LA faces lefties on a fairly regular basis. But the Dodgers just smacked around lefty Madison Bumgarner in a 9-5 blowout to open this series. They smacked around tonight’s southpaw starter Matt Moore when they faced him back in May with the Rays – seven earned runs in 4.1 innings of work. And they’re swinging hot bats right now, despite last night’s pitcher’s duel; pounding out 21 runs in their last four at home and just shy of six runs per game over their last dozen contests. Moore has struggled with his command since joining the slumping Giants, issuing 17 walks in just 23 innings of work over four starts. San Fran’s bullpen behind him has fallen out of the top half of MLB in ERA, badly overworked since the All Star Break. Ross Stripling was pulled after 7.1 innings of no-hit ball against the Giants in his MLB debut back in April. I’m willing to bet he can’t do it again, or even come close. Stripling is no emerging ace and no innings eater, just a warm body for an injury riddled rotation, with only two quality starts in ten tries since that impressive debut. The Giants are expected to sit Denard Span and Joe Panik tonight, but they’ve finally been hitting of late; pounding out five runs or more five times in their last seven games. No surprise, then, that these two teams have only cashed four Under bets in their last ten games each (with two of them coming last night). That’s an Over trend for both squads, worth riding tonight. Take the Over. |
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08-10-16 | Padres v. Pirates OVER 9 | 4-0 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
Take Pittsburgh – San Diego OVER (#955-956) We’ve got a pair of ‘bet-against’ starters, two suspect bullpens behind them and two hot hitting lineups facing off against those pitchers. On a warm, humid night in Pittsburgh, we should expect another high scoring Slugfest, primed to fly Over the total with relative ease. The Pirates are 63-46 to the Over this year – only the Twins have cashed more Over bets than Pittsburgh has. They are 6-2 to the Over in their last eight at home, averaging more than five runs per game during that span. And I certainly don’t trust tired retread Edwin Jackson to shut them down tonight. Jackson is coming off a 108 pitch effort in his last outing, by far his longest stint of the season. In four starts since joining San Diego, Jackson has only 13 strikeouts compared to 10 walks, and he’s not getting many ground ball outs. It’s surely worth noting that all four of his previous starts with the Padres have come at very pitcher friendly parks; not the case at PNC Park in Pittsburgh. San Diego’s bullpen behind him isn’t fresh – none of their last three starters have lasted past the fifth inning. San Diego has been an Over machine of late, cashing five straight Over bets while pounding out just shy of seven runs per game during that span. That’s bad news for Ryan Vogelsong, making his second start after an extended stint on the DL following a line drive to his face back in May. Vogelsong isn’t likely to eat up innings at this stage of his career, and the Padres lineup he’ll face tonight is a heck of a lot more potent than the Braves lineup he faced last time out. At 39 years old, Vogelsong is a long way removed from his ‘ace’ level seasons in 2011 and 2012; an easy pitcher to fade here. And the Pirates bullpen behind him is in decline following their salary dump at the trading deadline. Take the Over. |
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08-09-16 | Angels v. Cubs OVER 9 | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
Take Chicago Cubs – LA Angels OVER (#929-930) I’ve cashed a handful bets fading Jared Weaver on the highway this season. Tonight’s game in Chicago is another prime opportunity to cash in betting against him. The results don’t lie. Since the start of the 2013 campaign, Weaver has an ERA under 3.00 in Anaheim, taking advantage of the pitcher friendly conditions at Angels Stadium. His ERA on the highway during that same span is above 5.00. The difference? The long fly ball outs in Anaheim (only 32 homers allowed since 2013) turn into actual home runs in more hitter friendly venues (59 dingers allowed on the highway during that same span). Weaver has no strikeout pitch at this stage of the season, notching only five K’s in his last four outings combined. Since the start of July he’s gotten 74 fly ball outs compared to only 26 on the ground, a dismal ratio for any hurler pitching at Wrigley Field against the hot Cubs lineup that has finally woken up post-break. LA’s bullpen behind Weaver is mediocre on a good day, not a ‘slam the door shut’ kind of pen, offering us the opportunity to cash this ticket late if we don’t get there early. John Lackey was nothing short of brilliant in May and June, at one point going through a stretch of ten consecutive quality starts. Since that time, his season long ERA has risen by a full run; a 37 year old veteran who has clearly been wearing down over the hot summer months. Lackey’s strikeout rate is down, his home run rate is up and his track record against current Angels is not a good one. LA’s bats are in solid form, scoring four or more five times in their last six games; cashing an Over ticket in all five of those contests. Expect another relatively high scoring affair in Chicago tonight! Take the Over. |
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08-08-16 | Giants v. Marlins OVER 6.5 | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
Take Miami – San Francisco OVER (#951-952) At first glance, you’re not going to see much that points towards an Over here; not with two aces on the hill and a cold Giants lineup behind one of those aces. That’s the beauty of baseball betting - -many times, the factors that put this bettor squarely on a side or total are hidden just below the surface; plays that don’t stand out as being ‘obvious’. There are ample reasons to expect the Marlins and Giants to combine to reach seven runs or more this evening, enough to cash our Over bet. Jose Fernandez has truly epic numbers at home in his career: 26-2 with a 1.62 ERA including a 9-2/2.11 in twelve home starts this season. But Fernandez threw only 126.1 innings of work over the past two seasons combined. This year, he’s already up to 131.2. And we’ve seen clear signs of fatigue lately. Fernandez’s last home start was his worst of the season. His ERA since July 1st is nearly twice his full season average, showing vulnerability to the home run ball, something that wasn’t the case for the first three months of the campaign. Behind Fernandez, the Marlins bullpen is spent after a wild weekend series in Colorado. The Giants were shut out in DC yesterday, continuing a recent trend of anemic offensive efforts. That being said, in the game following every previous Giants shutout loss since the end of April, San Fran has scored at least five runs, and those games have flown Over the total, averaging nearly 16 runs per contest! They scored seven on Saturday, beating up another dominant ace at home, Stephen Strasburg. And the Giants lineup has hit Fernandez well with a .343 career average against him, smacking him pretty hard in a 7-2 win over Miami earlier this year (cashing the Over) and a 5-4 loss to the Marlins last year (also cashing Over bets) In fact, all three previous meetings between these two teams this year have produced nine runs or more – three Over cashes. Their three game set on this field last year produced eight runs or more in all three games, also cashing Overs in all three contests. Miami is really hitting well right now – 16 runs over the last two games in Colorado, and 37 runs scored in their last five home games, flying Over the total each time. The Giants bullpen behind Johnny Cueto has declined in recent weeks, bad news considering that Cueto is suffering some real fatigue issues; just like Fernandez. Cueto has thrown 110+ pitches four times in six starts since July 1st. He turned a gem into a loss last time out after Bruce Bochy sent him back out for the eighth inning; a big mistake, not just for that game, but moving forward. It’s surely worth noting that despite Cueto’s stellar full season numbers, he’s only thrown two quality starts in his last seven trips to the hill. We don’t need real offensive fireworks to get this game Over 6.5, but I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if we get them……Take the Over. |
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07-28-16 | Red Sox v. Angels OVER 8.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
Take Boston – LA Angels OVER (#913-914) My clients and I cashed an easy winner betting against Jared Weaver in his last start, Weaver remains a ‘fade’ here against the Red Sox potent lineup. But with David Price’s continued struggles and LA swinging hot bats right now, my ‘fade’ of Weaver tonight is an Over recommendation, not a side play. Let me start with Price, who has been hammered in both starts since the All Star Break, allowing eight runs on 22 hits while striking out only five batters; facing to finish the sixth inning both times. Those starts came against the Yankees and Twins, not exactly the two most potent lineups in baseball. He’s been hit every bit as hard on the highway as he’s been at Fenway – Price’s last quality start on the road came back in the first week of June! Boston’s bullpen behind him has been spotty at best throughout the summer months, ranked outside the top half of MLB bullpens in ERA. The Angels have come out of the break clicking on all cylinders offensively, pounding out five runs or more eight times in twelve games. Albert Pujols has finally woken up from his dormant status; Mike Trout is as dangerous as any hitter in the league; Yunel Escobar has six hits in the last two games, and Andrelton Simmons has back-2-back multi-hit games as well. LA is a threat to approach or exceed this total all by themselves. So is Boston! The Red Sox have scored eight runs or more five times in their last eight contests; another team that is swinging hot bats right now. That’s bad news for Jared Weaver, who has shown extreme vulnerability to the gopher ball, allowing 23 home runs already this season, including two more in his last start at Houston. Weaver used to pitch better in the spacious confines of Angels Stadium, but not this year – he’s got a 5.59 home ERA and .300 batting average against compared to 5.03 and .290 on the road. It’s hot in Southern California right now, conditions in which the ball tends to carry a good notch or two better than it does on cooler nights. When these two teams met in Boston at the beginning of the month, we saw 47 runs scored in the three game set. No surprise here if we see similar offensive outbursts this evening in a game that has ‘Slugfest’ written all over it! Take the Over. |
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07-18-16 | Padres v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
Take San Diego – St Louis OVER (#907-908) MLB Totals went 30-13-2 to the Under in the first weekend following the All Star Break. That’s not surprising – pitchers tend to have the edge over hitters following a few days off. But that edge doesn’t last long – after three games, we can expect hitters to find their rhythm. And frankly, these two lineups have come out of the break swinging the bats well, making the Over a clear choice in a matchup of two mediocre (at best) starting pitchers with suspect bullpens behind them. Padres manager Andy Green following their weekend sweep over the first place Giants: “I think we've grown. You watch Wil (Myers) work a walk against Cueto and celebrate it like he hit a home run. He made a great pitcher work and we weren't necessarily doing that earlier in the year." The Padres scored four or more runs in all three games against San Fran and eight of their last ten games overall. And the Padres have been trending Over for weeks, 16-9 to the Over in their last 25 ballgames. Don’t expect Mike Leake or the surprisingly mediocre Cardinals pen to slow down San Diego’s offense tonight. The Padres bullpen is even worse than the Cardinals pen, and starter Christian Friedrich hasn’t recorded an out after the fifth inning in any of his last four starts. Since mid-June, Friedrich has seen his ERA rise from 2.12 to 4.50, allowing at least one home run in every outing while struggling with walks. That’s a bad combo against St Louis, who scored 11 runs in two games after the break before taking a loss yesterday. It’s surely worth noting this quote from Sunday’s game in which the Cardinals struck out a season high 15 times. Outfielder Tommy Pham: “The strike zone was horrible, man. I mean, the guy had no sense of the inside part of the plate or the outside part of the plate.” I’m not expecting that two days in a row. On a hot, humid summer night in St Louis, look for runs in bunches from both of these squads. Take the Over. |
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07-09-16 | Padres v. Dodgers OVER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take LA Dodgers – San Diego Padres OVER (#961-962) Right now, the San Diego Padres are the single best ‘Over’ bet in baseball. San Diego is 5-1 to the Over in their last six contests while averaging just shy of seven runs per game offensively; 16-5 to the Over in their last 21. If you’re a regular client you already know my mantra regarding overs. Here’s an excerpt from a recent write-up explaining exactly what I’m talking about: “In most sports, what happens in one game doesn’t matter all that much when it comes to the next game, with the NBA or NHL Playoffs standing out as prime recent examples. But when it comes to MLB totals, there is clearly a correlative effect from one game to the next. “Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. A series of poor outings from a starting pitching staff will often result in tired, overworked bullpens that throw gas on fires, as opposed to putting them out. And when you put those two factors together – a hot lineup and some bad pitching – you’ve got a recipe for Over after Over. “When an MLB team wins ten straight games, they’ll be one of the lead stories on SportsCenter – even if they’re a bottom feeder. But when a team goes 10-0 to the Over in a ten game span, nobody notices. The markets don’t significantly adjust off that short sample size. The public doesn’t pay attention. The bookmakers aren’t concerned. But savvy bettors can take advantage of these streaks; cashing winning bets sometimes for weeks at a stretch” The Padres aren’t the only team trending heavily to the Over in this matchup. The LA Dodgers bats are clicking too, pounding out four runs or more seven times in their last nine games, including last night’s ten run outburst in a game that flew Over the total in the third inning. Neither starter is reliable and both bullpens are gassed. Neither starter made it out of the third inning last night, leaving both bullpens fatigued here. In fact, none of the Dodgers last six starters has recorded an out past the fifth inning and their last day off came on June 23rd. That’s an optimal recipe for late inning shenanigans here, particularly on a hot evening in LA with Carlos Torres calling balls and strikes (five straight Overs; more than 9.5 runs per game in his 17 previous instances behind home plate this year). With Dodgers starter Brandon McCarthy on a strict pitch count in only his second start back from 14 months on the DL following Tommy John surgery, LA’s bullpen issues right now are clearly a problem. And it’s worth noting that McCarthy was rushed back due to Clayton Kershaw’s injury – he wasn’t supposed to be finished with his rehab until AFTER the All Star Brek. The Padres bullpen has been a gas can all year, ranked #25 in bullpen ERA. That’s come in large part because they’ve already thrown 306.3 innings, second most in all of baseball behind Cincinnati. Starter Luis Perdomo has one start and two relief appearances against LA this year. In those games, the Dodgers went 16-28 against him, for a .571 batting average against and a 1.434 OPS, truly UGLY numbers. Perdomo has allowed 25 runs in his last six starts while going 5-1 to the Over – he’s not exactly pitching at an ace level just yet. We’ve got hot weather and an ‘Over’ umpire calling balls and strikes. We’ve got two hot lineups and two suspect starters, with two worn down bullpens behind them. This is ASBSOLUTELY the recipe I look for when stepping up my unit size for a wager…..Big Ticket: Take the OVER. |
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07-08-16 | Rays v. Red Sox OVER 10 | 5-6 | Win | 105 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
Take Boston – Tampa Bay OVER (#919-920) It’s not hard to make a case for betting against either one of these starting pitchers or either one of these bullpens. Red Sox spot starter Sean O’Sullivan is not exactly manager John Farrell’s top option, but with Clay Buchholz getting demoted to the bullpen again, O’Sullivan is all Farrell’s got. He’s the ultimate mediocre journeyman, bouncing around to five different teams since his big league debut in 2009, with a career 13-23 record and 5.99 ERA. In three previous starts this year, O’Sullivan has allowed 12 runs in 15.1 innings of work, with all three games FLYING Over the total, each producing 15 runs or more. Behind him, the Red Sox bullpen has been in steady decline for the better part of the last month, more than capable of a late inning meltdown. But Tampa’s bullpen has been even worse, now ranked #27 for the full season in ERA rankings; a big part of the reason why the Rays have allowed five runs or more a whopping 19 times in their last 23 ballgames – this pitching staff stinks right now, plain and simple. Their supposed ‘ace’, Chris Archer, has been getting lit up all year, an extremely profitable ‘fade’ for bettors – the Rays aren’t 5-13 in his 18 previous starts by accident. Boston’s bats have produced ten runs or more three times in their last four games, red hot right now and quite capable of approaching or exceeding this total all by themselves. Archer has faced Boston twice already this year, and neither start was pretty: 10 earned runs and 15 hits allowed in just 10.2 innings of work. In fact, Archer’s career numbers against Boston, particularly at Fenway are downright ugly; with a 5.65 ERA in Boston. Expect a good handful of crooked numbers on the scoreboard for this one! Take the Over. |
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07-07-16 | Tigers v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Detroit – Toronto OVER (#961-962) Justin Verlander still carries a reputation in the betting markets as a near ace, which he was for about seven or eight years. But over the last three seasons, Justin Verlander is 28-26 with a 4.09 ERA – mediocre numbers from a mediocre pitcher. Verlander does NOT match up well against the Blue Jays. His 35.2% ground ball rate is the second worst of his career (last year’s 34.6% was the worst). And his Home Run to Fly Ball ratio of 11.5 is also the worst of his career. Verlander is still notching strikeouts – 115 in 111.2 innings this year – which makes his advanced metric numbers look decent, and keeps the betting markets from recognizing his true current form. But a pitcher who can’t keep the ball in the park against the potent Toronto bats is primed for an ineffective outing this evening. Behind him, the Tigers bullpen isn’t particularly fresh – this is their tenth consecutive game without a day off, and two of their last three starters combined for only 6.1 innings of work in short stints at Cleveland earlier in the week. That’s bad news with the Blue Jays clicking offensively right now, pounding out 44 runs in the last five games of this homestand. The Tigers flew Over the total by themselves in a 12 run outburst yesterday, the fourth time in their last eight games that Detroit has scored ten or more runs. Toronto’s Drew Hutchison is no ace, demoted to AAA for the first three months of this season despite a 13 win campaign in 2015. Current Tigers are hitting .297 against him in their careers. Behind Hutchison, Toronto’s bullpen ranks behind only Cinci and Atlanta with 19 losses this year, more than capable of allowing some late inning shenanigans should we need them. Expect fireworks! Take the Over. |
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07-06-16 | Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Take Arizona – San Diego OVER (#911-912) Right now, the San Diego Padres have become the single best ‘Over’ bet in baseball. San Diego is 6-1 to the Over in their last seven contests while averaging six runs per game offensively; 14-4 to the Over in their last 18. If you’re a regular client you already know my mantra regarding overs. Here’s an excerpt from a recent write-up explaining exactly what I’m talking about: “In most sports, what happens in one game doesn’t matter all that much when it comes to the next game, with the NBA or NHL Playoffs standing out as prime recent examples. But when it comes to MLB totals, there is clearly a correlative effect from one game to the next. “Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. A series of poor outings from a starting pitching staff will often result in tired, overworked bullpens that throw gas on fires, as opposed to putting them out. And when you put those two factors together – a hot lineup and some bad pitching – you’ve got a recipe for Over after Over. “When an MLB team wins ten straight games, they’ll be one of the lead stories on SportsCenter – even if they’re a bottom feeder. But when a team goes 10-0 to the Over in a ten game span, nobody notices. The markets don’t significantly adjust off that short sample size. The public doesn’t pay attention. The bookmakers aren’t concerned. But savvy bettors can take advantage of these streaks; cashing winning bets sometimes for weeks at a stretch” The Padres aren’t the only team trending heavily to the Over in this matchup. Arizona, too, has a red hot lineup and an ice cold, overworked pitching staff. They’re 6-0 to the Over in their last six, 10-2 to the Over in their last dozen games, averaging 5.5 runs per game during that span. The betting markets have spent all year waiting for Shelby Miller to turn his season around. It hasn’t happened – his ERA is now sitting at 7.05 in seven previous home starts after another rough outing against San Fran on his last trip to the hill. San Diego’s Colin Rea has shown some promise, but a 5.13 road ERA doesn’t inspire much confidence in this bettor. And this quote from red hot Padre Will Myers stands out in my mind, coming off a four hit day: “You see the ball really well here (at Chase Field).” Take the Over. |
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07-05-16 | Rangers v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
Take Boston – Texas OVER (#971-972) With Colby Lewis, Yu Darvish and Derek Holland all on the DL, the Rangers are missing 3/5 of their starting rotation right now. The replacements haven’t been good – too many weak arms that can’t eat innings. The numbers don’t lie. In their last six games, Rangers starters have combined to throw only 26 innings of work – only once did the starter reach the sixth inning. That’s left the bullpen to clean up mess after mess. And the Rangers bullpen is clearly reeling right now. They’ve thrown 25 innings in that six game span, with an ERA of 9.72 during that span, truly woeful numbers. That’s particularly bad news with AJ Griffin on the hill tonight. Griffin has only lasted a combined 9.1 innings in two starts since his own stint on the DL. Griffin and that struggling Rangers bullpen won’t have an easy time of it tonight against the red hot Red Sox lineup. No team in baseball has a more potent lineup than Boston this year, the highest scoring team in MLB by a fairly wide margin. The Red Sox have pounded out 22 runs on 37 hits in their last two games alone, with eight of their nine guys in the lineup yesterday notching at least one extra base hit. Boston has cashed nine winning Over bets in their last dozen games, in large part due to their lineup success. Texas can’t pitch, but they sure can hit! The Rangers, too, are trending Over of late, 8-3-1 to the Over in their last dozen games, scoring five runs or more nine times during that span. They’ve certainly had success against Boston starter David Price. Price faced 18 Ranger batters in Arlington two starts back. 12 of those 18 batters notched hits. His career ERA against Texas is 5.78; current Rangers have a career .353 batting average against him in a 150 at-bat sample size. And Price has been particularly vulnerable to the long ball of late, allowing at least one home run in each of his last eight starts. Behind him, it’s certainly not like the Red Sox bullpen has been ‘lights out’ of late, leaving the door open for some late inning shenanigans should we need them. Take the Over. |
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07-02-16 | Giants v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Take Arizona – San Francisco OVER (#909-910) We saw ten runs scored between these two teams last night on this field in a matchup of aces. Tonight, with a much weaker starting pitching matchup, we should expect runs in bunches once again! The Giants lineup is on fire right now, producing five runs or more 12 times in their last 16 games, including 30 runs scored in their last four contests alone. They’ve gone 10-5-1 to the Over during that span, including a run of five Overs and a push in their last six contests. The Giants should get both Buster Posey and Denard Span back in the lineup tonight following a day off yesterday. Arizona is certainly capable of trading runs with San Fran – they’ve scored seven runs or more five times in their last eight games while going 6-2 to the Over during that span. Neither starter is a ‘bet-on’ pitcher today! Jeff Samardzija allowed six runs or more three times in five June starts. Samardzija has cashed only one Under bet in his last seven trips to the hill, and he’s got a poor track record against the D-backs lineup, allowing current Arizona players to hit .295 against him in their respective careers. Behind him, the Giants bullpen hasn’t had a day off since June 16th, not primed to slam the door shut in the latter stages tonight. Patrick Corbin has been repeatedly lit up by the Giants lineup to the tune of a .307 career batting average and an .835 OPS in 166 previous at bats against him. Corbin has been nothing short of awful in front of the home fans this year, with an 0-5 record and a 7.02 ERA in seven previous starts at Chase Field in 2016. And Corbin’s strikeout pitch has basically disappeared of late, notching only four K’s (while walking eight batters) over his last two outings, a major red flag for a mediocre hurler. Behind Corbin, the D-backs pen ranks #22 in the majors in ERA while sitting just outside the top five in innings pitched, leaving the door open for some late inning fireworks should we need them. Take the Over. |
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07-01-16 | Rangers v. Twins OVER 9.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Texas – Minnesota OVER (#971-972) We’ve got two very suspect starters and two truly dismal bullpens in play tonight against a pair of potent lineups, setting the stage for what should be a high scoring affair at Target Field this evening. Martin Perez ranks #90 out of 91 starting pitchers with enough innings to qualify in MLB this year when it comes to notching strikeouts, with a 4.4 K/9 ratio – only woeful Mike Pelfrey notches fewer K’s. And when pitchers don’t notch strikeouts, they have a very hard time getting through the batting order the second or third time. That’s a big reason why Perez is NOT an innings eater; averaging just six per start. The Rangers bullpen behind him is a gas can right now. One night after blowing a four run lead in the ninth against the Yankees, the Texas bullpen was largely ineffective again yesterday, retiring only 10 of the 17 batters who tried to reach base (not counting a sacrifice bunt). That bullpen certainly isn’t rested or ready after five inning stints from each of their last two starters. And the Twins are showing life offensively, including a wild five run ninth inning rally against the White Sox on Wednesday. Texas can hit, the #3 offense in the AL in runs scored. And they’re hitting right now, pounding out six runs or more six times in their last seven contests. The Rangers have certainly hit Erwin Santana well over the years, with Adrian Beltre, Prince Fielder and Mitch Moreland combining for ten home runs and 29 RBIs in just 104 career at bats against him. Santana isn’t eating up innings either, in part due to the weakness of Minnesota’s defense behind him, ranked #29 or #30 in the best advanced metric stats for defense. And the Twins bullpen is every bit the gas can that the Rangers bullpen is, primed to allow some crooked numbers on the scoreboard in the latter stages should we need them. Take the Over. |
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06-28-16 | Red Sox v. Rays OVER 8 | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Tampa Bay – Boston OVER (#911-912) Chris Archer is supposed to be an ace, and the betting markets afford him significant respect. And while Archer’s advanced metric number show that he should be a notch or two better this year, his results have been consistently mediocre….at best. The results don’t lie. Tampa is 5-11 in Chris Archer’s 16 previous starts this season on the heels of a 7-11 finish in his last 18 starts in 2015. In his last nine trips to the hill, Archer has allowed 4, 4, 3, 3, 5, 4, 6, 2 and 4 runs; not exactly ‘ace’ level performances. In his lone previous start against the Red Sox this year, Archer was blasted for six earned runs in 4.1 innings. In fact, he’s failed to reach the sixth inning in each of his last three starts against the Red Sox. The Rays bullpen behind Archer has really struggled over the past two week during the Rays 1-11 slide, not a trustworthy unit in the latter stages of the game. And Boston continues to hit as well as any team in baseball, pounding out six runs or more four times in their last six ballgames, including in the series opener last night. The Rays broke out of an offensive funk with a six run effort on Saturday, following that up with 18 runs scored over the past two days, cashing three straight Over tickets by 5.5 runs or more – none of them were even close. That’s bad news for Rick Porcello and the overworked Red Sox bullpen behind him. Boston’s bullpen is an absolute disaster area right now – their last four starters have combined to record only one out past the fifth inning and just about every reliever John Farrell has at his disposal carries a high fatigue rating into tonight’s game. Tampa has hit Porcello hard, only one of Porcello’s last nine starts has produced less than eight total runs. Take the Over. |
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06-27-16 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | 8-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia – Arizona OVER (#957-958) If you’ve been reading my write-ups all baseball season, you already know exactly what I’m looking for when betting games Over the total. I want two hot lineups and two overworked bullpens. And that’s exactly what we’ve got at Chase Field this evening. The Phillies bats were ice cold when thy faced the D-backs at home ten days ago, scoring only five runs in the four game series. Those bats have clearly woken up on this road trip, scoring 36 runs in six games while going 5-1 to the Over. And while the Phillies full season numbers show a truly dismal offense, when you break it down into home and road splits, they’re not nearly as anemic on the highway. On the road, this has been a middle of the pack lineup when it comes to OPS and run production, leading to a consistent run of road Overs (4-1 to the Over on their previous road trip). Arizona starter Robbie Ray is no ace, and he’s got sharp home/road splits as well – a 3.50 road ERA, compared to a 5.89 ERA here at Chase Field. It was the exact same story last year for Ray: 4.88 at home, 2.49 on the road. Clearly, this is the venue to fade him in. And Arizona’s bullpen behind him is completely gassed off their wild series at Coors over the weekend. But the D-backs lineup is clicking, pounding out six runs or more in all four games at Coors over the weekend. They beat up the Phillies staff for 22 runs in their four game set at Citizens Bank Ballpark last week. Don’t expect Philadelphia starter Vince Velasquez to stem the tide tonight in his first start off the DL with a biceps strain. Velasquez’s last quality start came back on May 1st, and his splits are even uglier than Robbie Ray’s, with a road ERA of 5.79 compared to his 1.24 ERA at home. The Phillies bullpen behind him ranks #26 in MLB in ERA and they’re not fresh off Aaron Nola’s short stint yesterday. With the markets pushing this total DOWN in early betting action, I have no hesitation fading the steam; expecting another high scoring Slugfest. Take the Over. |
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06-24-16 | Twins v. Yankees OVER 8 | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota - New York Yankees OVER (#917-918). My clients and I have been riding this remarkable Twins Over run on a consistent basis over the last two weeks. And there’s absolutely no reason to jump off the single most Under-The-Radar betting trend of the entire first half of the MLB season tonight. Let me start with an excerpt from my last pro-Twins Over write-up (it’s been serving us well), with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities.
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06-23-16 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11 | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Colorado – Arizona OVER (#959-960) It’s not often that you see Zack Greinke starting a game with a total of 11. Greinke is 9-5 to the Under this year, despite every one of his previous starts being lined at 9 or less. He had only one start lined with a total higher than 8 for the entire season last year. Of course that one game was right here in the hitter friendly confines of Coors Field, a game lined at O/U 10 which finished with a 9-8 final score, flying Over the total with plenty of room to spare. In fact, the Rockies have consistently hit Greinke, particularly here at Coors. In five starts in Denver since 2013, Greinke has a 5.17 ERA with the Rockies batting .354 against him. Those are BY FAR the worst numbers Greinke has put up at any park during that span where he’s pitched more than once. Colorado also faced Greinke twice earlier this season at Chase Field in Arizona. Neither of those starts was pretty for the D-backs ace either: 17 hits and nine earned runs allowed in just 11 innings of work. Colorado is hitting, pounding out eight runs in each of their just concluded two game series in the Bronx against the Yankees. They averaged seven runs per game on their last homestand and 6.5 runs per game on their previous homestand. As we’ve seen more than once this season, the potent Rockies lineup is more than capable of approaching or exceeding this total all by themselves, particularly given the consistent struggles of the Arizona bullpen behind Grienke But the Rockies pitching staff, top to bottom, is in terrible shape tonight, very bad news for a team that has allowed opponents to score nine runs or more an MLB high 15 times already this season. Starter Eddie Butler is a true ‘bottom tier’ MLB starter, forced into action here only because Tyler Chatwood went on the DL. Butler was booted from the starting rotation after allowing 15 earned runs in a 15 inning span over three starts in late May and early June. Since his demotion to the bullpen following his last start on June 7th, Butler has pitched only once, getting lit up for nine hits and six earned runs in 3.1 innings of a long relief effort at Miami. Eddie Butler is NOT a prime candidate to deliver a shutdown effort tonight, especially when we consider that his career ERA at Coors is just shy of 7.00. To make matters worse for both pitching staffs, it’s hitter’s weather in Colorado this evening, with warm temperatures and a steady wind blowing out to right center. In a game featuring two suspect starters and two overworked bullpens facing off against two potent lineups, this is one time where Zack Greinke is worth betting Over in a game totaled at 11…… Take the Over. |
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06-21-16 | Phillies v. Twins OVER 8 | 10-14 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia – Minnesota OVER (#977-978) To say that the Twins have been trending Over of late is something of an understatement. Minnesota is 13-1-1 to the Over in their last 15 ballgames. My clients and I cashed a pair of winners betting the Twins Over the total last week. Here’s an extended excerpt from my last write-up about the Twins, with numbers adjusted to mesh with current realities. “In most sports, what happens in one game doesn’t matter all that much when it comes to the next game, with the NBA or NHL Playoffs standing out as prime recent examples. But when it comes to MLB totals, there is clearly a correlative effect from one game to the next. “Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. A series of poor outings from a starting pitching staff will often result in tired, overworked bullpens that throw gas on fires, as opposed to putting them out. And when you put those two factors together – a hot lineup and some bad pitching – you’ve got the Minnesota Twins right now! “When an MLB team wins ten straight games, they’ll be one of the lead stories on SportsCenter – even if they’re a bottom feeder. But when a team goes 13-1-1 to the Over in a 15 game span, nobody notices. The markets don’t significantly adjust off that short sample size. The public doesn’t pay attention. The bookmakers aren’t concerned. But savvy bettors can take advantage of these streaks; cashing winning bets sometimes for weeks at a stretch. That’s where I’m at with Minnesota right now. “ Twins starter Tyler Duffey has been nothing short of awful in recent weeks, a bottom tier starter on a last place team. Duffey has allowed 6, 6, 4, 5, 5 and 6 runs in his last six starts, finishing the sixth inning only once during that span while going 5-0-1 to the Over. The Twins bullpen behind him has been a disaster area all year. The Phillies pitching has been so bad that despite scoring three runs or less nine times in their last dozen ballgames they’re still trending Over the total during that span (8-4 to the Over). Starter Aaron Nola has been lit up twice in a row, allowing twelve runs in just 6.2 innings of work, failing to last through the fourth inning either time. The Phillies exhausted bullpen hasn’t had a day off since June 9th, primed to pour gas on any late inning fires should we need it! Take the Over. |
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06-19-16 | Yankees v. Twins OVER 9 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 3 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota – New York Yankees OVER (#969-970) To say that the Twins have been trending Over of late is something of an understatement. Minnesota is 12-1-1 to the Over in their last 14 ballgames. Here’s an extended excerpt from what I wrote about the Twins when cashing an Over ticket with them earlier in the week: “In most sports, what happens in one game doesn’t matter all that much when it comes to the next game, with the NBA or NHL Playoffs standing out as prime recent examples. But when it comes to MLB totals, there is clearly a correlative effect from one game to the next. “Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. A series of poor outings from a starting pitching staff will often result in tired, overworked bullpens that throw gas on fires, as opposed to putting them out. And when you put those two factors together – a hot lineup and some bad pitching – you’ve got the Minnesota Twins right now! “When an MLB team wins ten straight games, they’ll be one of the lead stories on SportsCenter – even if they’re a bottom feeder. But when a team goes 9-0-1 to the Over in a ten game span, nobody notices. The markets don’t significantly adjust off that short sample size. The public doesn’t pay attention. The bookmakers aren’t concerned. But savvy bettors can take advantage of these streaks; cashing winning bets sometimes for weeks at a stretch. That’s where I’m at with Minnesota right now. “ Twins starter Ervin Santana has been lit up in each of his last three starts, 0-3 with a 7.79 ERA here in June. The Twins woeful bullpen behind him took another loss yesterday. They haven’t had a day off to rest and recuperate in 13 days. That’s bad news against a hot Yankees lineup that has pounded out 32 runs over the first five games of this road trip. Yankees starter Nathan Eovaldi is in a rut, coming off three consecutive lousy outings of his own (while cashing three consecutive Over bets with room to spare). Eovaldi has given up five homers in that three game span, bad news against a Twins team that went yard four times yesterday. It’s surely worth noting that untouchable Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman gave up two of those four dingers in a 28 pitch effort yesterday…. Minnesota and New York have played a series of Slugfests in recent seasons, 8-2 to the Over in the last ten meetings. On a 90 degree afternoon in Minnesota, look runs in bunches from both of these squads. Take the Over. |
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06-18-16 | Nationals v. Padres OVER 7 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
Take San Diego – Washington OVER (#909-910) The first two games of this series have produced 12 and 13 runs, both flying Over the total with relative ease. And there’s absolutely no reason to expect anything different on Saturday Night! Washington’s potent lineup is on fire right now. The Nats have scored five runs or more nine times in their last dozen games, pounding out 15 runs in the first two games of this series. In fact, Washington has gone Over the total or come within a run of exceeding the total BY THEMSELVES in seven of those last dozen contests. That’s bad news for Colin Rea and the struggling Padres bullpen behind him. Rea has only one quality start in his last six trips to the hill. Opposing teams have scored 13, 3, 16, 9, 5, 8, 4 and 15 runs in his previous eight home starts, an AVERAGE of more than nine per contest. This rookie hurler is really struggling right now, lit up by light hitting Miami in his last start. Behind him, the Padres bullpen continues to struggle, ranked #27 in MLB in bullpen ERA. Can San Diego get anything going offensively against Max Scherzer tonight? I’m willing to bet that they can! After all, Scherzer, like Rea, has been cashing Over bets all year; a pair of starters that have cashed Overs at a combined 65% clip this year. Scherzer is coming off a ‘max intensity’ start, in revenge mode against the NL Central leading Cubs – I’m not convinced he’ll have his ‘A’ level stuff working tonight. And the Padres lineup is hitting – they’ve scored five or more in each of their last three games, while going 4-1 to the Over on their current homestand. Home plate ump Brian Knight has cashed more Overs than Unders while calling balls and strikes in each of the last two seasons. On an unseasonably warm evening in Southern California, look for some offensive fireworks at Petco! Take the Over. |
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06-17-16 | Mariners v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Boston – Seattle OVER (#967-968) The Boston Red Sox have been a consistent Over team from Day 1 this season – only five teams have cashed a higher percentage of Over bets (Twins, Pirates, Reds, Cardinals & Tigers). I don’t expect that to change tonight against a pitcher who they have feasted on. Mariners hurler Hisashi Iwakuma is 9-4 to the Over in his first 13 starts of the season. And his track record against Boston is downright ugly. In four previous career starts against the Red Sox, Iwakuma has only lasted a combined 15 innings while giving up 30 hits and 18 runs. Boston sluggers David Ortiz, Brock Holt and Dustin Pedroia have combined to hit .432 against him. Iwakuma’s flyball ways are a bad fit for Fenway Park; with the third highest OPS of any ballpark in MLB this season, behind only Coors Field and Chase Field in Arizona -- two places where the ball really carries. The Red Sox lead MLB in literally just about every offensive category – runs scored, batting average, hits, total bases, extra base hits, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS – you name it! They’ve scored five or more runs 12 times in their last 18 games, and have AVERAGED more than 6.5 runs per game following a rare ‘off night’ offensively (held to one run against Baltimore yesterday). It’s hard to picture Iwakuma having much success against this lineup tonight. Seattle’s bullpen behind Iwakuma is not in great shape following short stints from starters Karns and Walker in their just concluded series at the Trop in Tampa. Seattle’s been hitting too, and they’ll get to face a guy who they’ve got a pretty good scouting report on this evening in Roenis Elias. Elias was drafted by Seattle, went through their minor league system and made 51 starts for them in 2014 and 2015. He pitched well at AAA, but Elias has pitched well at AAA before; not so well at the big league level. The only reason he’s even here is because of Clay Buchholz’s struggles. In his last two big league appearances, Elias has been rocked to the tune of eleven hits, five walks and seven earned runs allowed in just 3.2 innings of work. Expect fireworks! Take the Over |
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06-15-16 | Twins v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Take Minnesota – LA Angels OVER (#971-972) In most sports, what happens in one game doesn’t matter all that much when it comes to the next game, with the NBA or NHL Playoffs standing out as prime recent examples. But when it comes to MLB totals, there is clearly a correlative effect from one game to the next. Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. A series of poor outings from a starting pitching staff will often result in tired, overworked bullpens that throw gas on fires, as opposed to putting them out. And when you put those two factors together – a hot lineup and some bad pitching – you’ve got the Minnesota Twins right now! When an MLB team wins ten straight games, they’ll be one of the lead stories on SportsCenter – even if they’re a bottom feeder. But when a team goes 9-0-1 to the Over in a ten game span, nobody notices. The markets don’t significantly adjust off that short sample size. The public doesn’t pay attention. The bookmakers aren’t concerned. But savvy bettors can take advantage of these streaks; cashing winning bets sometimes for weeks at a stretch. That’s where I’m at with Minnesota right now. Their pitching has been bad all year, and that doesn’t change with Tyler Duffey on the hill – he’s allowed 26 earned runs in 28 innings over his last five starts, finishing the sixth inning only once during that span. The Twins bullpen behind him ranks #26 in ERA and most assuredly isn’t fresh after the beating they took from the Red Sox last weekend – they’ve had only one off day since May 26th. But the Twins lineup is hitting: 13 runs in the first two games here in LA; four runs or more in eight of their last ten during this 9-0-1 run to the Over. Don’t expect that to change tonight against struggling lefty Hector Santiago, who hasn’t made it out of the third inning three times in his last five outings. Minnesota Overs are worth riding here…… Take the Over. |
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06-07-16 | Rockies v. Dodgers OVER 8 | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Colorado – LA Dodgers OVER (#959-960) My clients and I cashed a winning bet supporting the Rockies offense last night, cashing a plus price ticket on Colorado. Tonight, with Eddie Butler on the hill for the Rockies, a cannot make a case for backing them, even at a big plus price. That being said, the way the Rockies are hitting right now makes this game worthy of an Over wager in a game primed to be a high scoring Slugfest. The Rockies pounded out ten runs at Petco on Sunday and six more in LA last night, getting production from all over their lineup. This offense is no joke, ranked #3 in the NL in runs scored; #2 in batting average and OPS, showing far more potency away from Coors Field than they did in either of the last two seasons. Dodgers phenom Julio Urias has nasty stuff, but he’s gotten lit up in each of his first two big league starts: 7.2 innings of work, 8 runs and 18 baserunners allowed. Even if Urias turns it around tonight, he’s not going to go deep into the game and the Dodgers bullpen behind him is spotty, suffering ten losses already this season. Eddie Butler is a bottom tier MLB starting pitcher. He’s 6-14 with a 5.93 ERA in 25 starts with the Rockies over the last three years. The advanced metric stats don’t show much promise – his strikeout rate is the lowest among any MLB starter with at least 100 innings pitched over the last three seasons, while his flyball rate is waaaay too high to be sustainable at the big league level. In three previous starts at Dodger Stadium, Butler has allowed 11 runs in only 12.1 innings of work. Current Dodgers have a .397 batting average and a 1.036 OPS against him. And the Rockies bullpen behind him ranks #26 in ERA, opening the door for some late inning shenanigans, should we need them. Take the Over. |
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06-04-16 | Rockies v. Padres OVER 7.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
Take San Diego - Colorado OVER (#913-914). Abbreviated write-up today. The Padres are trending Over at an 80% clip -- even the low scoring nature of Petco Field hasn't cooled off their hot lineup or helped their spotty pitching. Colorado's lineup is remarably potent and they've hammered Andrew Cashner. Expect fireworks! |
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06-03-16 | Mariners v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
Take Seattle – Texas OVER (#973-974) I don’t have many 21 run winners in MLB, but my clients and I cashed one last night as the Mariners rallied from ten runs down to beat San Diego at Petco in a game that flew Over the total by 21 runs. Let me start with an excerpt from that write-up, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: “The Mariners have cashed nine straight Over tickets. As I’ve written before, Overs begat more Overs. Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. Bullpens wear down following extended usage, leading to more bullpen meltdowns. Teams take better at bats knowing that they’ll need to score runs in bunches to win. When teams are riding these Over trends, bettors NEED to take notice. “The Mariners just scored 47 runs in a four game set at the lowest scoring ballpark in the majors; at least six in every game. This potent lineup is clicking, producing five runs or more ten times in their last 14 games.” We can expect more offensive fireworks tonight! Texas is hitting too, pounding out 31 runs in their last five contests. They just cashed three straight Over tickets in Cleveland this week. Seattle’s Taijuan Walker has lost his mojo, lit up for four runs or more in each of his last four starts while showing extreme vulnerability to the gopher ball – he’s given up nine home runs in his last five trips to the hill. Seattle’s bullpen behind him is a mess after very short stints from Wade Miley and James Paxton over the last two nights. Yu Darvish will be on a strict pitch count again in only his second start back from Tommy John surgery. From all indications, he’s still a long way from being 100%, despite a strong first showing (one run in five innings against the Pirates). Seattle has hit Darvish hard, with current Mariners enjoying a .316 career batting average against him in 76 at bats. And the Rangers bullpen has been a consistent disappointment this year, ranked #29 in MLB in bullpen ERA, offering the potential for late offensive fireworks should we need them. Take the Over. |
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06-02-16 | Mariners v. Padres OVER 7.5 | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
Take Seattle – San Diego OVER (#919-920) The first three games of this series have produced a combined 49 runs, all three of them flying Over the total with relative ease. Last night’s game went Over the total in the very first inning, a true ‘rocking chair’ winner for Over bettors. But it’s not just this series – both of these teams have been trending Over for weeks! The Mariners have cashed eight straight Over tickets. The Padres have cashed seven overs in their last eight games. The only Under game during that span stayed Under by a half run. As I’ve written before, Overs begat more Overs. Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. Bullpens wear down following extended usage, leading to more bullpen meltdowns. Teams take better at bats knowing that they’ll need to score runs in bunches to win. When teams are riding these Over trends, bettors NEED to take notice. The Padres pounded out 14 runs last night and they’ve scored seven or more in half of their games since their last off day. They’ve hit lefties like Wade Miley well, ranked in the top half of MLB in batting average and OPS against southpaws. The Mariners have scored 31 runs already in this series; at least six in every game. This potent lineup is clicking, producing five runs or more nine times in their last 13 games. Neither starter is reliable. Miley has been lit up by current Padres, with a .315 career batting average against. Miley has only three quality starts in ten previous outings this year, lit up three times in his last four trips to the hill. Padres starter Colin Rea got sent down to the minors to throw just a single inning last week instead of making his normally scheduled start as San Diego looks to limit his workload. Expect another high scoring Slugfest between these two teams tonight! Take the Over. |
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05-20-16 | Nationals v. Marlins OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
Take Washington – Miami OVER (#955-956) Tanner Roark has faced the Miami Marlins three times already this year. Miami hit him hard on all three of those occasions. In fact 14 of the 17 earned runs that Roark has allowed have come against the Marlins…and that doesn’t even include the two unearned runs Miami has against him. Roark has thrown 110 + pitches in each of his last two outings after throwing 121 against the Twins in late April – Washington manager Dusty Baker is up to his old tricks, keeping his starters in too long. And Baker’s quote isn’t exactly what his starter needs to hear (or think about): “I hope that team's not becoming a nemesis to him. Everybody has a couple teams they have some trouble with. They hit him pretty hard." A slumping Giancarlo Stanton is primed to give the Marlins lineup a boost against a hurler who he’s hit hard. But the Nationals potent bats are hot again, flying Over the total by themselves in each of the last two games. That’s bad news for Justin Nicolino, who has not fared well in either of his two previous career starts against the Nationals. Here’s what he said after getting bombed in DC last weekend: "I kind of was all over the place. That's a good-hitting lineup and you definitely don't want to make mistakes to them.” Each of Nicolino’s last three starts has produced ten combined runs or more, and his nine walk to two strikeout ratio here in May is a major concern against Washington’s patient lineup (ranked #5 in the majors in walks). Expect some crooked numbers on the scoreboard in this one! Take the Over. |
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05-19-16 | Indians v. Reds OVER 8 | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland – Cincinnati OVER (#919-920) My clients and I cashed a relatively easy winner with the Reds – Indians Over last night a bet that cashed in the sixth inning of a game that flew Over the total by 6.5 runs. Many of the same elements remain in play for the series finale today. Cincinnati has been an Over machine, cashing only 14 Unders in their first 40 games. It’s easy to understand why – their pitching has been nothing short of awful. No starter has lasted past the sixth inning in the last two weeks, and Reds starters have lasted only 205 innings, the lowest number of innings pitched in the major leagues. Poor starting pitching has led to an exhausted, overworked bullpen, a pen that ranks #29 in innings pitched this season. Reds relievers rank dead last in MLB with a 6.43 ERA, 85 walks and 33 home runs allowed. That bullpen has been severely tested and depleted in this series . That bullpen has been forced to throw 14 innings in this series already, allowing 15 runs in the process. Don’t expect rookie hurler Tim Adleman to be a difference maker here – it’s certainly not like he’s been eating innings in his three previous big league starts. Josh Tomlin is no ace, allowing four runs or more in three of his last four trips to the hill. Tomlin has a lousy track record against Cincinnati, with current Reds batting .318 with a .933 OPS against him in their careers. He got lit up for six runs in 4.1 innings of work in his lone recent start against the Reds. Cleveland’s bullpen behind Tomlin was taxed in last night’s extra inning affair. Cinci’s lineup is in solid current form, pounding out 23 runs over their last four games. Cleveland’s offense has been even more productive, scoring 36 runs in the first three games of this home & home series. Overs begat more Overs, thanks to hot lineups and worn down bullpens. Take the Over. |
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05-18-16 | Indians v. Reds OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
Take Cincinnati – Cleveland OVER (#975-976) When a rookie hurler gets called up to make his MLB debut, I’m always interested in reading the manager’s quotes about his young starter. There’s often a lot of nuance here, reading between the lines. Here’s what Indians manager Terry Francona said about rookie starter Mike Clevinger yesterday: "We're really excited to watch him. I don't think tomorrow's start is going to define his career, and I do think he's still developing. But there's a lot to like with a kid with that kind of breaking ball, that kind of velocity, that kind of competitiveness. I think you can still develop and win, and we're looking forward to it." Read between the lines there and basically, Francona is telling us that this kid’s got good stuff, but he’s not ready yet. But after Cody Anderson’s awful start to the campaign, the Tribe needed a starting pitcher today, so Clevinger got the call. Facing a Reds lineup that’s in solid current form, pounding out 16 runs over their last three games, I’m expecting Cincinnati to get more than their fair share of runs across home plate tonight. Reds starter Brandon Finnegan has allowed at least three earned runs in each of his last five starts. He’s struggling with his control, leading to high pitch counts and short stints (five innings or less in four of his last six trips to the hill). Behind him is a true ‘gas can’ of a bullpen – that’s how Cleveland has scored 28 runs in the first two games of this ‘home & home’ four game set. The Reds bullpen gave up 11 of those runs in just 7.2 innings of work; fairly typical of a bullpen that ranks dead last in ERA and next to last in innings pitched, badly overworked already. If we don’t see a flurry of early runs here, we should have ample opportunity to see some crooked numbers on the scoreboard in the latter stages of this one. Take the Over. |
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05-08-16 | Rangers v. Tigers OVER 9 | 8-3 | Win | 105 | 2 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Detroit – Texas OVER (#965-966) The Tigers have been the highest scoring team in the AL during the daylight hours so far this season, ranked #2 in the AL looking at daytime OPS splits. They’ve flown Over the total in each of their last three Sunday early start games. That’s bad news for Martin Perez, who’s been living on borrowed time in early season play. Perez has a FIP and an xFIP more than a full run higher than his ERA. Hi strikeout rate is at the lowest of his career, while his walk rate is at the highest. He’s pitched poorly in both previous career outings against Detroit, going 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA here at Comerica Park. The Rangers bullpen behind him isn’t fresh after Mike Pelfrey’s short stint yesterday; a unit that has suffered an MLB high nine losses already, ranked #25 in bullpen ERA. The Tigers are a legitimate threat to approach or exceed this total all by themselves. It’s the same story for Texas – their lineup broke out of a funk yesterday and flew Over the total by themselves. Detroit’s bullpen has been better in recent weeks, but it’s a long, long way from ‘elite’ status. Starter Justin Verlander was lit up in his lone previous daytime start this season. Last year, his ERA under the lights was 2.61, compared to 5.10 in the sunshine, an emerging trend worth noting. And Verlander’s propensity for giving up the longball (seven home runs allowed in 34 innings) is bad news against a power laden Texas lineup that pounded out five home runs yesterday. Take the Over. |
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05-07-16 | Brewers v. Reds OVER 9 | 13-7 | Win | 102 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
Take Milwaukee – Cincinnati OVER (#907-908) When it comes to early season hitting stats, neither the Reds nor the Brewers stand out as elite offenses, because they’re not. Both squads rank in the middle of the pack in terms of runs scored, batting average, OPS and slugging percentage, with the Brewers slightly above average and the Reds slightly below average. That being said, both Cinci and Milwaukee have been strong Over bets all year, a combined 36-19 to the Over. The Reds lineup underachieved early, and they’re breaking out of their funk right now. They’ve scored five or more five times in their last six games. Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Adam Duvall are all tearing the cover off the ball on Cinci’s current homestand. Milwaukee’s Jimmy Nelson has pretty good stuff, but his track record in Cincinnati is downright awful, with a 10.38 ERA in three starts at the Great American Ballpark last year. Five different Reds starters have hit .333 or higher against him in their careers. Behind Nelson is one the least effective bullpens in the majors, ranked #28 in bullpen ERA. That bullpen is anything BUT fresh following short stints from their last two starters, playing here in their tenth consecutive game without a day off. There aren’t many bullpens weaker than the Brewers pen, but Cinci’s got one! The Reds pen has taken eight losses already, ranked dead last in MLB with a 6.28 ERA. Cinci’s streak off allowing at least one bullpen run ended last night after an MLB record 23 games, but they’re primed to start up a new streak today; truly a bottom tier bullpen unit. That’s particularly bad news with Cinci starter Brandon Finnegan dealing with the lingering effects of a hamstring injury that cut his last start short. Throw in a gusty wind blowing out to center field and this Over becomes something of a no-brainer! Take the Over. |
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05-06-16 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 7 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
Take San Francisco – Colorado OVER (#961-962) My clients and I cashed an easy Over ticket by the fifth inning last night in the Rockies – Giants game. Colorado went Over the total by themselves in a 13 run fifth, but even if we throw that entire inning out of the equation, the two teams still went Over the total with room to spare. Here’s an excerpt from yesterday’s write-up, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: “The Giants bullpen has been mediocre at best, currently ranked #20 in team ERA. And defensively, the Giants have been nothing short of awful, dead last in the NL in Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (PADE); a big part of the reason why San Fran has been a strong Over team thusfar (12-2 to the Over in their last 14 games). But the Giants lineup is capable of trading runs with anybody, pounding out 73 runs in their last 13 games while scoring four runs or more ten times during that span. The struggling Rockies bullpen is currently ranked #27 in ERA out of 30 big league teams.” Madison Bumgarner is on the hill for the Giants today, but he’s been hittable all year and he’s coming off 114 and 112 pitch efforts in his last two starts (both cashing Over bets). Rockies sluggers Nolan Arenado and Carlos Gonzalez have combined to hit seven dingers off Bumgarner, and the bullpen behind him is most assuredly not fresh off last night’s disaster. Colorado’s Chad Bettis is no ace! He didn’t make it out of the fifth inning in his last start against San Francisco, with a 5.16 career ERA against San Fran. The Giants could have Joe Panik back in the lineup today and should have Hunter Pence back as well after he missed last night’s game with some tightness in his back. We saw an impressive offensive display last night and I’m expecting more of the same tonight, with the wind blowing out to center field once again. Take the Over. |
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05-05-16 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
Take San Francisco – Colorado OVER (#911-912) My clients and I cashed an Over ticket by the sixth inning the last time Matt Cain faced the Rockies; an 11-6 Slugfest. Cain hasn’t gotten much better since that defeat – his next quality start will be his first since his 2016 debut. He’s on pace to set career lows in swinging strike percentage and in ground ball percentage – opposing hitters are seeing his stuff clearly, and bashing it! No surprise, then, that Cain has cashed a grand total of two winning Under bets in his last 14 trips to the hill; a trend worth riding again here. A fly ball pitcher like Cain certainly won’t be helped by a gusty wind blowing out to left field tonight. And the fact that seven different current Rockies have home runs against Cain in their careers isn’t a good sign for the Giants expensive mid-tier starter. The Giants bullpen behind him has been mediocre at best, currently ranked #20 in team ERA. And defensively, the Giants have been nothing short of awful, dead last in the NL in Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (PADE); a big part of the reason why San Fran has been a strong Over team thusfar (11-2 to the Over in their last 13 games). But the Giants lineup is capable of trading runs with anybody, pounding out 66 runs in their last dozen games while scoring four runs or more nine times during that span. That’s bad news for Rockies starter Chris Rusin, and the struggling Rockies bullpen behind him (currently ranked #27 in ERA out of 30 big league teams). Rusin is no innings eater – he started the season in the long relief role and was pulled after only 76 pitches of his lone previous start. Rusin’s xFIP is twice as high as his ERA, and his .179 BABIP is due for a significant correction as well. Expect fireworks! Take the Over. |
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04-25-16 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks OVER 7.5 | 7-12 | Win | 107 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
Take Arizona – St Louis OVER (#905-906) My clients and I cashed an easy ‘right side’ winner by the top of the fifth inning betting the Cardinals Over the total yesterday. And I have no hesitation getting right back to the betting window with an Over wager on St Louis again tonight. From a starting pitching standpoint, this game isn’t going to attract many Over bets. Zack Greinke is an ace. Jamie Garcia is an ace. Garcia has allowed only five hits and two runs over 14 innings of his last two starts while striking out 20 opposing batters. After a couple of rough outings to open the season, Greinke has allowed only three runs in 14 innings of work in his last two starts, while striking out a dozen opposing hitters. But starting pitching is only one piece of the MLB betting equation. Let’s look at these two lineups. Both squads have been CRUSHING the ball of late. St Louis just scored 19 runs in their final two games at low scoring Petco Field, the #2 scoring offense in MLB through the first three weeks of the season. Arizona has scored six runs or more six times in their last eight games, including 24 runs in their just concluded three game set against the Pirates solid staff. Both of these teams can hit, and both are in excellent current offensive form, especially with Paul Goldschmidt getting untracked with a pair of home runs yesterday. And let’s look at these two bullpens! Arizona’s pen is completely spent – seven different relievers combined to throw 165 pitches yesterday in their 13 inning marathon, and the pen has now thrown 23 full innings of work over the last four days, with several of their better relievers unavailable tonight after going on Saturday as well. The Cardinals top three bullpen arms are all spent as well. Sueng-Hwan Oh and Jonathan Broxton are off of back-to-back appearances, while Trevor Rosenthal got stretched out to 34 pitches yesterday. Early reports indicate that the Chase Field Roof is likely to be open this evening, and forecasts call for a strong, gusty wind blowing out to center in this hitter’s ballpark if that roof is open. This is one game where betting two aces Over the total makes perfect sense to this bettor! Take the Over. |
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04-24-16 | Cardinals v. Padres OVER 7.5 | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
Take St Louis – San Diego OVER (#963-964) Petco has historically been the lowest scoring, least hitter friendly park in all of baseball. The outfield walls are deep, the power alleys even deeper and the ball does not carry in the dense warm air by the ocean. And for the better part of the 21st century, the Padres pitching –both starters and bullpen -- has been consistently better than their lineup, keeping their totals deflated. That’s not the case this year, especially with their bullpen, currently ranked #27 in MLB in ERA, off another dismal showing last night, the second time in four days that the bullpen has allowed eight runs or more. That’s particularly bad news against St Louis – the Cardinals have the second highest scoring offense in baseball this year while pounding out 50 runs in their first eight road games. The Padres have now gone Over the total in six of their last seven games on this homestand. And there’s ample reason to think that San Diego will be able to put some crooked numbers on the scoreboard as well against Mike Leake. Leake’s walk rate is at a career high through his first three starts, and his ground ball rate is at a career low, a bad combination for a pitcher that doesn’t record strikeouts in bunches. San Diego’s Colin Rea has not been able to eat up innings in three previous starts this season, lasting through the sixth only once. The Cardinals blasted him in his lone appearance against them last year, allowing five runs in four innings of work. At least one of these two teams has gone Over the total by themselves in four of the last five meetings dating back to last August, and I wouldn’t be shocked if that happens again this afternoon. Take the Over. |
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