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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-08-18 | Alabama -3.5 v. Georgia | 26-23 | Loss | -110 | 106 h 2 m | Show | |
Take Alabama (#151) I’m going to make this short and sweet. I’m betting on Alabama because I damn well don’t want to bet against them! Nick Saban’s track record against his former assistants borders on ridiculous. Jimbo Fisher, Mark Dantonio, Will Muschamp, Jim McElwain and Derek Dooley have combined to face their former mentors 11 times. Saban’s Crimson Tide are 11-0 SU in those games, winning by a combined margin of 427-111, an average margin of 43-11. And yes, that includes plenty of elite competition. When a QB (Jalen Hurts) keeps the picture of himself walking off the field as a loser in last year’s title game as his cell phone screen saver for the next year, it’s meaningful – Alabama has something to prove, a ‘mission’ team. Alabama expects to be here every year. And the fact that they’ve been here in each of the last three seasons is meaningful as well, a team that is very comfortable with the extra spotlight that shines on them at this stage of the campaign. With the most elite coaching staff in college football, I have no interest in fading the team with the most talented roster out here. All of those #1 ranked recruiting classes for Saban in Tuscaloosa matter! I’ve been very impressed with Bulldogs frosh QB Jake Fromm, but he’s a frosh QB playing for a national title. Alabama’s run defense is no joke, even against the likes of Nick Chubb and Sony Michel – Fromm’s going to have to make plays to win this game. And Fromm was not at his best away from home against quality defenses, as evidenced by their 40-17 loss at Auburn and even in their 20-19 win at Notre Dame. The Bulldogs have been playing from ahead consistently since that loss at Auburn. In a game where they’ll likely have to play from behind at some point, I don’t trust their young QB to avoid the type of back-breaking mistakes that Alabama feasts on. Roooooooollll Tide. Take Alabama |
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01-01-18 | Alabama v. Clemson +3 | 24-6 | Loss | -103 | 104 h 52 m | Show | |
Take Clemson (#274) Clemson has been an underdog in each of their last seven bowl games in the Dabo Swinney era. They are 6-1 SU, 7-0 ATS in those ballgames, beating the spread by more than 120 points in the process, including outright upsets against the likes of LSU, Ohio State (twice), Oklahoma (twice) and the same Alabama team they’ll face on New Year’s Night. That’s a pretty impressive track record! if we look just at the ‘extra time to prepare’ bowl games over the last three seasons, it’s a combined victory margin of 108-23….all as underdogs against elite foes. Clemson has faced Alabama for the national title in each of the last two seasons. The combined result of those two games? Alabama by one point on the scoreboard, Clemson by more than 200 yards in the box scores. In short, they were pretty even, and at +3, I’m generally interested in matchups that are ‘pretty even’. I’m well aware that Deshaun Watson was a huge piece of the equation for Clemson's win last year or cover the year before, and Kelly Bryant is no DeShaun Watson. But Clemson’s defense is at elite as it gets, ranked among the Top 14 in the country in total defense, scoring defense, run defense and pass efficiency defense. Alabama’s defense continues to be challenged by mobile QB’s — a consistent problem for this squad in recent years -- and Nick Saban’s reputation is carrying way too much weight considering Swinney’s remarkable track record. Alabama’s fifth year seniors are just 3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS in bowl games — perhaps Saban’s reputation is outshining the reality at this stage of his coaching career. Alabama’s offense wasn’t as good this year, lacking a second playmaker on the other side from Calvin Ridley. In fact, nobody else on the team caught more than 14 passes all year, and the Tide were not seriously threatened in the vast majority of their games, playing from ahead. Clemson has plenty of experience in tight, competitive contests, finding ways to win in the fourth quarter. Alabama played only three competitive games all year (0-3 ATS in those contests), without that same requisite level of confidence when it comes to pulling out tight games during crunch time. This was not a banner year for the SEC, and yet ‘Bama was overvalued all year, unable to cover lofty numbers. Their four ATS covers this year al came against disappointments: Florida State, Vandy, Ole Miss and Tennessee, not exactly a group of overachievers. My goal here is not to criticize Alabama — of course they’re elite. So is Clemson, and it’s likely to take another Dabo trip to the title game to prove that to the betting marketplace. Take Clemson. |
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01-01-18 | Central Florida v. Auburn -9.5 | 34-27 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 33 m | Show | |
Take Auburn (#268) Two years ago, UCF went 0-12. Last year, they were 6-7. Now, they’re being asked to hang within single digits of a team that was one win away from the college football playoffs, despite the fact that their head coach is trying to work two jobs at once, recruiting and hiring staff at Nebraska while doing his best to get this squad to compete with an elite foe. I’m not buying that the Knights are ready to make that jump. Why was UCF undefeated this year? Simple — their Week 2 game against Georgia Tech got cancelled by Hurricane Irma. They were underdogs only once all year — at 4-8 Maryland, which tells you where this team was power rated before they started pounding patsies. In their two ‘signature’ wins against USF and Memphis to close out the regular season — both at home — this Knights defense allowed 97 points and more than 1400 yards. UCF’s star quarterback is 5-11 and weighs less than 180 pounds; not a QB I trust to make plays all day against an elite SEC defense. McKenzie Milton put up huge numbers…but not against teams of this caliber. And UCF has given Auburn plenty of bulletin board material like this, from their leading rusher Adrian Killins with his 762 rushing yards this season: “Auburn hasn’t seen any speed like we have here. So I would say they’re in for a rude awakening, because UCF football, we’re UCF fast and UCF fierce”. Killing obviously didn’t look at Auburn’s schedule this year. This team faced Alabama, Georgia (twice), Clemson, LSU and Mississippi State this year. That’s six games against teams ranked in the Top 12 nationally on defense. Those teams ALL have far more ‘speed like we have here’ at UCF. And despite facing those elite defenses again and again, the Tigers still put up huge numbers running Gus Malzahn’s offense. There’s a legitimate class difference here that is not reflected in this pointspread, and it’s very difficult for me to envision the Knights hanging tough against a focused juggernaut like the Tigers. Take Auburn
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01-01-18 | South Carolina v. Michigan -7.5 | Top | 26-19 | Loss | -105 | 95 h 53 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Michigan (#266) Michigan closed out the regular season with back-2-back losses against Wisconsin and Ohio State. They were blown out at Penn State and managed only ten points in a home loss to Michigan State. In short, the four best teams that Michigan faced all beat them. Make no mistake about it — South Carolina is not one of the best teams that Michigan has faced this season. And the Wolverines are primed to look very different on the offensive side of the football, where they’ve struggled all year — when the Outback Bowl kicks off on New Year’s Day. Let me start with the Gamecocks offense. Their returning QB Jake Bentley suffered declines in every category in his second year as the starter — yards per pass down, turnovers up, passer rating down. The issue wasn’t just Bentley — South Carolina’s leading receiver didn’t even average 12 yards per catch and their leading rusher gained only 517 yards on the ground. Plain and simple — the Gamecocks offense lacks playmakers. That’s why they were completely shut down against Georgia and Clemson, held to 10 points and less than 275 yards in each of those two contests. Michigan’s defense can be mentioned in the same breath as Clemson’s or Georgia’s stop unit. The Wolverines finished the regular season ranked #3 in college football in Total Defense, Pass Efficiency Defense and Third Down Defense, an impressive trifecta. Expect Gamecocks points to be few and far between in this one. The Wolverines biggest issue all year has been their offense, most notably their quarterback play. Wilson Speight was nothing more than a game manager before he got hurt. John O’Korn had serious accuracy problems, throwing three times as many interceptions as touchdowns. The only QB that showed any promise was the frosh, Brandon Peters, but he suffered a concussion and didn’t play in the second half at Wisconsin or in the finale against Ohio State. Peters is healthy now, and he’s got ‘bet-on’ quotes everywhere around him from that Michigan locker room. O’Korn: "From the first time that he went in, he’s just grown up so much. He’s really taking control of the offense, taking control of the locker room, and it’s been really cool to see." Michigan co-captain, left tackle Mason Cole:"He has a lot of confidence, the kid's got a little swagger to him. He runs around like he owns the place. And that's what you want." Jim Harbaugh is a good bully, not shy about running up scores when he has the chance. Given the Wolverines late season struggles, I’m expecting Harbaugh to keep the pedal to the metal from start to finish on New Year’s Day. South Carolina’s last win against a foe with a winning record came back in September and the SEC East is primed for some more ugly bowl results. Big Ticket: Take Michigan. |
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12-30-17 | Washington v. Penn State UNDER 55 | 28-35 | Loss | -108 | 51 h 45 m | Show | |
Take Penn State - Washington UNDER (#261-262). My premise here is two-fold. First, the loss of Joe Morehead matters for Penn State. Second, Washington’s defense is truly elite but their offense is not. Let’s start with #2 first. Away from home, Washington faced two bowl teams this year, Arizona State and Stanford. They scored just 29 points in those two games combined. Washington has a handful of offensive playmakers, most notably RB Myles Gaskin and WR/KR Dante Pettis. What the Huskies did not have — and have not had — is elite QB play with Jake Browning behind center. In two ‘step-up’ games vs quality defenses last year, Browning was terrible both times, unable to move the offense in ugly losses vs USC and Alabama. This year was more of the same - lots of big numbers against weak defensive foes, but not much production in their few 'step up in class' games. I do not trust this offense to put up points in bunches here. But I sure do trust this Huskies defense, a unit with loads of future NFL talent and plenty of swagger to their step. We’re talking about a team that allowed more than 16 points only three times all year, despite facing a steady diet of high octane PAC-12 foes. Penn State’s offense was brilliantly called all year, a HUGE part of their big numbers. After more than a month off, without Morehead keeping defenses off balance, facing an elite stop unit, I do NOT expect the Nittany Lions to march up and down the field. This quote stands out, even though it’s from a different team in a different game. Here’s what Missouri defensive end Marcell Frazier had to say after the Tigers offense was stymied in their bowl loss to Texas after putting up huge numbers for the previous two months, talking about the offensive coordinator and OL coach that skipped town for new jobs:"Realistically, Heupel left us in a bad position. It is what it is. And Elarbee left us in a bad position. As men they have to look in the mirror. They let a whole bunch of teenage boys down, 18- and 19-year-olds. They left and they have to do what's best for their family, but I think it showed up a little bit today. We were doing things [on offense] we haven't done since maybe the Auburn game. It showed up. We practiced for almost a whole month without an O-coordinator or an O-line coach after having one of the most dominating offenses in the nation. It's tough.” Take the UNDER. |
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12-30-17 | Iowa State v. Memphis OVER 65.5 | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 24 m | Show | |
Take Memphis - Iowa State OVER (#259-260). Memphis is a ‘dead nuts’ Over team, 9-3 to the Over this season. The Tigers play fast, averaging more than 75 offensive plays per game. They have a bevy of skill position talent starting with senior QB Riley Ferguson, who threw for more than 3900 yards at 9.0 yards per attempt with 36 TD strikes. The Tigers run a balanced spread attack, capable of running or throwing on any down. And they’ve moved the football against EVERYBODY, held under 30 points only once all season. Iowa State has faced a handful of spread offenses with strong QB play this season. They haven’t stopped any of them, lit up for more than 500 yards against both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, while allowing 11 touchdowns in those two games. Riley Ferguson isn’t Mason Rudolph or Baker Mayfield when it comes to NFL potential, but don’t sell the Tigers QB short against this caliber of defense. I expect Memphis to get into the 30’s here. The reason Memphis lost twice to UCF this year was on the defensive side of the football, a mediocre stop unit on a good day; lacking both size and speed. That’s a problem against the Cyclones trio of big receivers, with their top three pass catchers all standing 6-4 or taller. Iowa State has all kinds of depth and versatility in their receiving corps, with seven guys catching at least 25 balls, and their offense is balanced with David Montgomery’s strong legs in the running game. Don’t expect many stops in this one, and look for the red zone opportunities for BOTH teams to result in touchdowns, not field goals. Take the Over. |
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12-28-17 | Michigan State +1.5 v. Washington State | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 198 h 40 m | Show | |
Take Michigan State (#277) This is not a good fundamental matchup for the Washington State Cougars. And considering how high the Cougars hopes were heading into their Apple Cup showdown against Washington, a bad fundamental matchup is now also a potential motivational issue for the favorite in this ballgame…although I’m not convinced that the Cougars will still be favored by the time kickoff rolls around. The loss to Washington hangs as a backdrop here. The Cougars were on pace for a truly special season, pinning all their hopes on knocking off the Huskies in their season finale. But that game was as ugly as it gets, right from the opening kickoff as Wassou was non-competitive in defeat, because this offense didn’t/doesn’t work against a top notch stop unit. QB Luke Falk’s senior season can only be described as ‘disappointing’, with the lowest yards per pass attempt, lowest passer rating and most interceptions of his four years as the starter! And Falk was at his worst in late season games away from home against Washington, Cal and Arizona, all ugly blowout losses for Mike Leach’s squad. With Leach flirting with the Tennessee job before signing an extension, it’s not even clear that his focus is on the task at hand either. And we cannot forget how poorly this offense has looked following time off for recent bowls – the Cougs were held to 32 points against Minnesota and Miami combined in 2015 and 2016. Mark Dantonio, in sharp contrast, has consistently seen his teams overachieve during bowl season. Sparty missed a bowl last year – this is one motivated team for the Holiday Bowl – but they had gone 4-0 SU and ATS in their four previous bowls before running into Alabama in 2015. The Spartans were outclassed in that game, just like they were outclassed in their ugly blowout at Ohio State. Make no mistake about it. Washington State is not Ohio State or Alabama, not even close. When Dantonio’s teams aren’t outclassed, they’re ‘bet-on’ all the way. The Spartans finished the season ranked #13 in pass efficiency defense, and they played more true freshmen (13) than seniors (12) this season – these extra bowl practices really matter for Sparty. And considering the fact that this defense held FIVE different Big 10 opponents to 10 points or less, I’m expecting them to control the flow here as well. Take Michigan State. |
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12-28-17 | Stanford +3 v. TCU | 37-39 | Win | 100 | 198 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Stanford (#245) I keep hearing mainstream media reports talking about what a genius Gary Patterson is at TCU. There’s only one problem with that theory – facts! Patterson has had three winning seasons in the Big 12 in six years since joining the league. His track record with extra time to prepare for bowl games isn’t very good, including an 0-5 ATS Run in bowls prior to his lone recent bowl blowout, a 42-3 wipeout over an Ole Miss squad that didn’t show up. What about Patterson in big games, with titles on the line? Well, we saw TCU get bombed twice by Oklahoma this year, coming up waaaaaay short in their two biggest tests of the season. We saw TCU get beaten at Iowa State as well – a ‘Kenny Hill’ game. The Horned Frogs senior QB put together a solid statistical season, completing 67% of his passes with a 23-8 TD-INT ratio. But Hill did NOT step up in class well and all of his bad games came on the highway, to the tune of a 178 passer rating at home compared to 124 away from home. Plain and simple – I do NOT trust Kenny Hill against a Stanford defense of this caliber! David Shaw gets about one tenth of the love that Gary Patterson gets, despite the fact that he’s a better coach. How do we know? This stat stands out to me: Stanford is 12-3 ATS as an underdog in the Shaw era, consistently stepping up with strong performances against the toughest competition that they face. That includes SU wins as an underdog this year against Washington and Notre Dame, as well as a cover in the PAC-12 title game in a three point loss to USC. TCU has a 3-3-5 defense built to stop the bevy of spread offenses in the Big 12. Stanford has a power rushing attack with a big time playmaker at RB in Bryce Love; a speedster who can turn one missed tackle into a quick strike, momentum changing touchdown. And frankly, I’ve been impressed with the Cardinal QB KJ Costello, who through six TD’s without an INT against Notre Dame and USC in the final two games of the regular season. Wrong team favored here! Take Stanford. |
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12-27-17 | Missouri v. Texas +3 | Top | 16-33 | Win | 100 | 174 h 36 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Texas (#240) We’ve got a flat out ‘bet-on’ Texas squad taking on a flat out ‘bet-against’ team from Missouri. Best of all, the Tigers are the favorite and they’re taking $$, offering us the opportunity to back the superior team with the superior coach and the vastly superior talent level at an underdog price. That, folks, is the very definition of what I’m looking for when I step up with a Big Ticket sized wager. Missouri opened this season 1-5, the lone win coming against FCS competition. Four of the losses came by 18 points or more, the defense allowed well over 40 points per game during that span and Barry Odom’s short tenure with the Tigers was on very shaky ground. Missouri closed the season by going 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS, averaging more than 51 points per game. Odom’s job is now safe, everyone’s happy in Columbia, and the Tigers are going bowling for the first time since 2014. The mainstream narrative is that Missouri ‘figured it out’ and that Drew Lock is a legit talent at QB moving forward. That narrative makes perfect sense….until it completely falls apart when we take a closer look. Missouri’s 6-0 winning streak went like this: They beat Idaho (Idaho stinks, finishing 4-8 in the Sun Belt Conference). They beat UConn (UConn stinks, finishing 3-9 in the AAC). They beat 4-7 Florida. Jim McElwain had just been fired. They beat 4-8 Tennessee. Butch Jones was about to get fired. They beat 5-7 Vandy. Derek Mason almost got fired, but they didn’t want to buy him out yet. They beat 4-8 Arkansas. Brett Bielema got fired right after the game. That’s a grand total of zero wins against any decent team all year. Everything Missouri accomplished came against a bottom feeder foe that couldn’t compete or was falling apart – EVERYTHING. This team isn’t just overrated – they’re wildly overrated in the betting markets at this stage of the campaign. That’s not the case for Texas! My clients and I have cashed multiple winning bets this year AND last year And in 2015 and in 2014 riding this same trend, a trend that the mainstream media hasn’t seem to pick up on. That trend? Tom Herman as an underdog! The results do not lie. Dating back to his tenure as the Ohio State offensive coordinator, continuing through his tenure as the Houston Cougars head coach right into his tenure as the Longhorns head coach, Herman has done one thing remarkably well – he steps up in class. Herman’s teams are now 15-1 ATS as an underdog in their last 16 tries dating back to 2014. Even the ‘1’ deserves an asterisk – it was a one score game in the fourth quarter and the Longhorns were playing without their starting quarterback! That stretch includes wins over the likes of Florida State, Oregon and Alabama – championship contending teams. Herman’s got both QB’s healthy and ready to go here, Sam Ehlinger the ‘playmaker’ of the duo and Shane Buechele, the better downfield passer. The extra bowl practices should help this offense considerably. But the key here is the Longhorns defense. It’s not like Texas hasn’t seen multiple spread offenses this year – the kind Missouri runs. The Longhorns have already faced Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield and Mason Rudolph, among others (3-0 ATS against arguably the best three QB’s in college football this year. They’re battle tested against offenses like this one, primed to win this game in SU fashion! Big Ticket: Take Texas. |
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12-26-17 | Utah -6.5 v. West Virginia | 30-14 | Win | 100 | 142 h 6 m | Show | |
Take Utah (#229) It’s not hard to make a case for betting on Kyle Whittingham’s team in a bowl game. The Utes have thrived in the postseason throughout Whittingham’s tenure: 9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS, including wins over Colorado State, BYU and Indiana over the last three postseasons. The Utes will have dynamic starting QB Tyler Huntley rested and ready for this one after he missed the season finale due to injury. Huntley averaged 7.8 yards per pass attempt and was the team’s second leading rusher behind Zack Moss; a legitimate dual threat QB primed to give the Mountaineer defense all kinds of problems. And the Utes dominance on special teams – true dominance, with the Lou Groza Award winning kicker and the #6 net punter in the country – ensures that West Virginia won’t be getting many short fields to work with. That’s bad news for Dana Holgorsen’s squad, because they’ll be playing without their star senior QB Will Grier, leaving backup Chris Chugunov as their starter for the bowl game. Grier averaged 9.0 yards per attempt and had a passer rating of 162.7. Chugunov averaged 6.6 yards per attempt and had a passer rating of 120 – there’s a MAJOR drop-off from the starter to the backup. And THAT’s bad news for West Virginia because this defense isn’t primed to get many stops. The Mountaineers returned only three starters on that side of the football and it showed all year; ranked #92 in scoring defense, #104 in rush defense and #101 in pass efficiency defense. West Virginia got lit up 59-31 against Oklahoma in their season finale, one week after losing to Texas by two touchdowns as home favorites. No surprise here if that negative momentum carries forward to this bowl game……Take Utah. |
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12-23-17 | Texas Tech v. South Florida OVER 66 | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 69 h 37 m | Show | |
Take South Florida – Texas Tech OVER (#221-222) The USF defense put up some strong numbers against the pass this year. The Texas Tech defense, statistically speaking, was a good notch or two better this year than it’s been in recent seasons. I’m not buying that either defense is as good as advertised, yet the stats ensure that this total isn’t going to skyrocket between now and kickoff. And given the expected pace of play in this ballgame – USF ranks #2 in the country, running 85 plays per game, and Texas Tech ranks #20 at 78 plays per game – we can expect the offenses to rule the day, not the defenses. USF puts up points in bunches, hanging 30+ on their foes nine times while averaging 41 points per game, They are balanced – a big problem for the Red Raider defense, a stop unit that allowed 56 points in their last bowl appearance – averaging 226 rushing yards and 328 passing yards per game, led by senior QB Quinton Flowers. Six different players caught a TD pass of more than 20 yards; not an easy offense to stop even for a Big 12 defense. The Texas Tech defense improved by 12 points per game, allowing 43 points in 2016 but less than 32 ppg in 2017. They were more than 100 yards per game better defensively than last year. And yet, at no point this season did the Red Raider defense pass the ‘eye’ test. Just about every good offense they faced moved the ball up an down the field against them. But QB Nik Shimonek threw for more than 300 yards per game; a multi-year starter who is very comfortable running Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. In a battle of senior QB’s who can chuck the football around, we can expect a high scoring shootout! Take the Over. |
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12-22-17 | Central Michigan +3 v. Wyoming | Top | 14-37 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 22 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Central Michigan (#219) At no point this season was Wyoming a good football team. NFL prospect QB Josh Allen is expected to start (prompting a three point line move for something that was already factored into the number), but Allen, quite frankly, has been a major disappointment all year. The Cowboys have shown precious little enthusiasm for travelling to a Mountain West venue where they played already this year (a game they lost by double digits). And Central Michigan’s full season stats are lying, a team that, without a doubt, is far better now than they were in September or October. I liked the Chippewas BEFORE the big line move. After a three point swing, this game is clearly worthy of Big Ticket status. Let’s start with Josh Allen. First of all, he’s not 100% healthy, even though he’s going to start. Allen, last week: “The shoulder is getting better day by day. I’ve been getting back in the swing of things with some seven-on-seven and some plays in team sessions the last couple of days of practice.” Head coach Craig Bohl: “The arrow is pointing up as far as his progression. Is he 100 percent? I don’t know if that’s quite accurate.” Even when healthy this season, Allen hasn’t come close to living up to the hype. In 2016, he threw for 8.6 yards per pass attempt and a passer rating of 144.9. This year, it was 6.6 yards per attempt and a passer rating of 124.0; a MASSIVE drop-off. What happened? His supporting cast was non-existent! Wyoming’s offensive line couldn’t protect Allen or open holes for any semblance of a running game – no RB reached 500 yards for the Cowboys. Austin Conway was the only pass catcher to nab more than 27 catches all season, and he averaged only 9.0 yards per catch. Without any legit playmakers and with a weak OL protecting him, Allen lost his confidence this year. I’m not convinced he’s going to find it here, especially after missing so much practice time (and the final two regular season games) with his bum shoulder. And another trip to Boise has generated precious little enthusiasm, in sharp contrast to last year’s trip to the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego. Central Michigan got off to a 3-4 start, with Michigan transfer Shane Morris struggling early after earning the starting QB job for HC John Bonamego. But the senior QB found his mojo down the stretch, guiding the Chippewas to a 5-0 SU/ATS run down the stretch. That didn’t come against MAC weaklings either – Central pulled outright upsets over Northern Illinois, Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan as underdogs, winning each of those games by a TD or more. With a senior QB and a bevy of senior skill position talent around him – top WR’s Mark Chapman and Corey Willis as well as tight end Tyler Conklin are all in their final game with the program – Central Michigan has the big play ability on offense that Wyoming simply can’t match. Wrong team favored here…. Big Ticket: Take Central Michigan. |
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12-16-17 | Middle Tennessee State v. Arkansas State OVER 62 | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 197 h 27 m | Show | |
Take Arkansas St – Middle Tennessee St OVER (#209-210) We can throw out most of Middle Tennessee’s offensive stats. Their senior quarterback Brent Stockstill – a four year starter and the coach’s son – missed six games in the middle of the season due to injury. The Blue Raiders went 2-4 in those games, and they were held to 23 points or less five times during that span, with backup QB John Urzua throwing more interceptions than touchdown passes. Brent Stockstill returned to the field at the beginning of November. In the four games to close out the regular season with Stockstill behind center, Middle Tennessee hung at least 30 points on their foes all four times, and Stockstill compiled a 10-3 TD-INT ratio. So the aggregate, season long stats for the Blue Raiders – which totals are based on – still has a healthy dose of Urzua’s numbers, numbers that are meaningless for the purposes of this bowl game. It’s surely worth noting that Middle Tennessee has played wild shootouts in each of their last two bowl games, losing 45-31 to Western Michigan two years ago and 52-35 to Hawaii last year. There’s little reason to think that the Blue Raiders defense is going to step up with a strong effort this time around – the better offenses that MTSU has faced this year have consistently moved the football up and down the field against them. Make no mistake about it – the Red Wolves have a good offense. Blake Anderson’s squad finished the season ranked #6 in the nation in passing yards, #11 in total yards and #15 in points per game. Junior QB Justice Hansen – an Oklahoma transfer with potential NFL upside – threw for more than 3600 yards and 34 TD’s. Six different receivers caught at least three touchdowns, and the offense worked even in a ‘step-up-in-class’ game at Nebraska, a wild 43-36 shootout. No surprise here if the Camillia Bowl is every bit as wild! The short turnaround between the end of the regular season and the start of bowl season should help these two potent offenses to stay in rhythm. Stockstill, talking about the difference between this year and their post- New Year’s Day Bowl last year: “It's way better (this year). We like to treat it like a bye week. We know that we're going to take on a tough opponent, but we're excited that it's right around the corner." Take the Over. |
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12-16-17 | Marshall +5.5 v. Colorado State | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 194 h 58 m | Show | |
Take Marshall (#207) The mainstream media is going to call this a matchup of two 7-5 teams. Not Me! This is a matchup of an 8-4 team (Marshall ATS, consistently undervalued) vs. a 4-8 team (Colorado State ATS, consistently overvalued). That doesn’t change here, with the Thundering Herd catching 5.5 (as I write this) from the Rams. Marshall has been at their best all season when stepping UP in class, a perfect 5-0 ATS as an underdog. Doc Holliday has built a solid, winning program here, and the Thundering Herd went 10-4, 13-1 and 10-3 in 2013, ‘14 and ‘15, including a 3-0 SU and ATS mark in their bowl games. But last year was a 3-9 debacle, where everything that could go wrong did go wrong. As a result, here in 2017, Marshall sure sounds motivated to get back to a bowl game and travel to Albuquerque, as evidenced by these quotes: Tight End Ryan Yuracheck: "From a player's standpoint, it's awesome. To be able to go to a place you've never been before and play an opponent that you never thought you'd play from a conference you didn't think you'd play, that's what gets you excited to go play football. We're so fortunate to play this game and to go out to a place like that, it's special." Defensive end Blake Keller: "That's what's exciting about it. People have been places - St. Pete, Boca - but nobody has been to New Mexico. The furthest west that most of us have been was San Antonio, so now we get to go even further.” That level of enthusiasm stands in sharp contrast to what I’m seeing from Colorado State. The Rams fifth year seniors will be making their fifth trip to Albuquerque; not the landing spot they were hoping for. CSU has flat out stunk up the joint in both previous bowls under Mike Bobo, losing outright as -5 favorites vs. Nevada and as -16 favorites vs. Idaho. And Bobo’s quote is ‘bet-against’ all the way – when the coach of the favorite is complaining about time frames and distractions, it’s not usually a positive sign. Bobo: “It will be tough, because we do have finals starting not this week but next week; you’ve got recruiting going on, so it’s going to be a grind the next two weeks recruiting and bowl practices and finals. We’ve got to finish. We want to finish strong academically and finish this season strong on the football side and then we want to finish strong in recruiting for the first signing period. It’s going to be a hectic two weeks.” The Thundering Herd are live dogs in this one! Take Marshall. |
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12-16-17 | Georgia State v. Western Kentucky -6 | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 192 h 8 m | Show | |
Take Western Kentucky (#204) I’m going to keep this one short & sweet. Georgia State is about as weak a bowl team as you will ever find, especially in a game where the pointspread is less than a touchdown. Heading into the season, they were projected to be near the bottom of the weakest FBS conference (the Sun Belt). But their schedule was friendly – they avoided better Sun Belt teams like Arkansas St, Louisiana and New Mexico St. When the smoke cleared from the Panthers season, they had wins over these teams: Charlotte, Coastal Carolina, Louisiana-Monroe, South Alabama, Georgia Southern and Texas St. The ‘quality’ win in that group came against the 4-8 War Hawks. In three ‘step-up’ games against bowl bound foes, Georgia St lost by a combined 101 points. That includes a 34-10 home loss to Troy and a 31-10 home loss to Appalachian State, not exactly elite competition. Georgia State’s previous bowl experience? A double digit loss right here on this field two years ago against a bad San Jose State team. And it’s surely worth noting that their best player, WR Penny Hart, got hurt in their season finale against Idaho, with his status up in the air for the early bowl game. I do NOT expect Shawn Elliott’s first year on the job to end with a bowl victory…or even a tight loss. Western Kentucky has shown well in recent bowl games: 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS over the past three seasons, the lone pointspread loss coming in a very memorable Bahamas Bowl against Central Michigan where they led 49-14 going into the fourth quarter. Senior QB Mike White has only thrown 14 interceptions in his last two seasons as a starter, a guy likely to be in an NFL camp next Fall. Taking a big step DOWN in class from the back half of their schedule, look for the Hilltoppers to control the flow, winning here by a TD or more. Take Western Kentucky. |
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12-02-17 | Miami-FL v. CLEMSON -9 | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 56 h 45 m | Show | |
Take Clemson (#326) If experience matters at this time of the year – and I think it does – no team in the country has an edge over the Clemson Tigers. Clemson has played in big games all year – Auburn, at Louisville, at Virginia Tech, at NC State, at South Carolina etc etc. They won all of those games. This is their third consecutive trip to the ACC Championship Game; they won each of the first two. Clemson has also played in four college football playoff games over the previous two seasons – the biggest games on the biggest stage that college football has to offer. Miami? Well, they did beat West Virginia in the Russell Athletic Bowl last year, their first bowl win this decade. And they did dominate in their two biggest games of the season, beating Virginia Tech, then blowing out Notre Dame. Of course, it’s worth noting that both Virginia Tech and Notre Dame stumbled badly down the stretch. And it’s worth noting that both of those games came at home. This game, of course, will be played in Charlotte. And when we look at what happened to the Hurricanes away from home this year, it’s not hard to make a case for betting against them! Miami’s starting QB Malik Rosier got benched for a series last week at Pitt; Miami’s first loss of the season. For the season, Rosier completed only 55% of his throws. Leading rusher Mark Walton got hurt, and his replacement, Travis Homer is not a ‘grind it out between the tackles’ type runner. No receiver has more than 45 catches or 583 receiving yards. This is NOT an elite offense or a particularly confident QB, bad news against what is most assuredly an elite defense. Brent Venables stop unit is, once again, ranked in the top six in the country in yardage allowed, points allowed and sacks. There are two other key factors in play for me here. First comes freshness. Miami hasn’t had a week off since mid-September, now playing their 11th consecutive game without a bye. Clemson had a mid-October bye and they faced lowly Citadel two weeks ago, by far the fresher of these two squads at this late stage of the season. Second, Miami has struggles away from home; Clemson does not. The ‘Canes gained just 232 yards at Pitt last week; the rare double digit favorite to lost outright despite a turnover advantage. They were lucky to beat a 5-6 squad Florida State, had to rally from behind to knock off a 3-9 North Carolina team and lost by double digits to a 5-7 Pitt squad. Let’s be real. Miami’s success this season has been about the Turnover Chain more than any other factor. In their final six games, the ‘Canes created 21 turnovers; with 29 takeaways on the season. The offense turned it over only 12 times all year. Teams that live off turnover margin aren’t primed for success against a Clemson offense that, like Miami, only gave it away 12 times in 12 games. It was 58-0 the last time these two teams met, and I don’t think the gap has closed significantly……Tigers roll. Take Clemson. |
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12-02-17 | North Texas v. Florida Atlantic -11 | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 48 h 56 m | Show | |
Take Florida Atlantic (#316) I’m going to keep this write-up short and sweet. Florida Atlantic won the first meeting between these two teams by a 69-31 margin. It wasn’t as close as the 38 point final margin of victory would indicate – the game was 41-7 at halftime, and, quite frankly, was all but finished with a 24-0 Owls lead by the end of the first quarter. FAU scored on their first 11 drives, gaining 804 yards on just 72 snaps: 447 rushing and 357 passing. So what’s different for the rematch? Not much! Florida Atlantic has size, speed and talent edges all over the field. North Texas didn’t show any more ability to compete when stepping up in class on the highway in ugly losses at Iowa and SMU; a defense that has not fared well against speed and tempo. The Mean Green defense has generated only seven interceptions all season, and they’ve been feasting on the weak to get here. Each of their last three games came against an opponent that ranked #121 or worse (out of 129 teams) in passing efficiency this season. FAU ranks #34 on that list. North Texas can’t realistically hope to stop an FAU offense with big play weapons all over the place. Five different rushers and five different pass catchers had TD’s of 40+ yards this year for the Owls. But can the Mean Green trade points here? They are balanced on offense and QB Mason Fine threw for nearly 3400 yards with a 27-11 TD –INT ratio for the season. But, quite literally, everything North Texas has been able to accomplish offensively this season has been the result of a remarkably weak slate of foes, a schedule that is ranked #117th according to Sagarin’s methodology. I do NOT expect the back door to be open here any more than it was open in that first meeting because FAU isn’t likely to stop scoring…..Take Florida Atlantic |
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11-25-17 | Colorado +10.5 v. Utah | 13-34 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 17 m | Show | |
Big Ticket: Take Colorado (#187) This pointspread is simply out of whack with both current realities and recent history. Let’s start with this. Utah and Colorado play close games. Each of the six meetings – all regular season finales, like this one -- between these two schools since they joined the PAC-12 have been decided by a touchdown or less. Then we’ve got the freshness factor. Both of these teams need one win to clinch bowl eligibility – the winner goes bowling while the loser stays home for the holidays, as simple as that. Colorado had last week off, a MUCH needed bye after playing eleven consecutive games to open the season. Utah had no such break – their last bye came in September. And the Utes are coming off a truly dispiriting defeat, allowing ten points in the final MINUTE to blow the game at Washington. And THAT came on the heels of a turnover debacle at home to Washington State; a game they trailed throughout. Utah is 1-6 in their last seven PAC-12 games. Their defense isn’t forcing turnovers. They’ve struggled against the run and the pass in recent weeks. They’ve lost SU on this field to Wazzou, Stanford and Arizona State, the latter as ten point favorites. This is not a team to be laying double digits with right now. Nor is this a series that has been friendly to favorites. The quotes out of Boulder have been nothing but positive all week, a re-energized team with a clear goal for Saturday Night. Coach Mike MacIntyre (who has a pretty good track record in games like this one, dating back to his tenure at San Jose St): “This university has a great history. For years, you didn't even think about them not going to a bowl game. That tradition is here, which it should be. Last year, the guys got it started and this year they want to keep it going. I know some of the guys that were here last year have been calling and saying, 'Don't let it end.' That would be extremely important for us to keep it going. ... I think it affects the overall view of the program. Momentum-wise on recruiting and things like that, I think it makes a bigger deal." The Buffs have a great running back in Philip Lindsey, who entered the weekend leading the nation in rushing attempts. "I'm a soldier, period. I take what I have to do. I'm going to continue to do that. That's it. I just want to win for the program, for my teammates and my family. That's what it's all about. I've learned that when you play hard, good things come your way." Lindsey is exactly what I want in a game like this one; a back who can grind out first downs and shorten the game for this double digit underdog. And I wouldn’t hesitate to recommend at least a little taste of the moneyline at +330 or higher. Big Ticket: Take Colorado. |
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11-25-17 | UNLV +3 v. Nevada | 16-23 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 17 m | Show | |
Take UNLV (#181) Reno is 2-9 this year. They’ve lost the battle for the Fremont Cannon in each of their last two tries at home, despite the fact that they had the better team both times. In fact, this series has shown no homefield edge whatsoever – the road squad is 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS over the last five years. Yet the betting markets seem concerned that the Rebels won’t be up to the challenge as they try to reach bowl eligibility for the first time in the Tony Sanchez era. I’m not buying that argument. First and foremost, this young Rebels team has been winning games and covering pointspreads on the highway all year: 5-0 ATS, including SU wins as underdogs at Idaho, Fresno and New Mexico. Last week’s win against the Lobos was particularly confidence inspiring, as frosh QB Armani Rogers led the team down the field in the final minute for the game winning touchdown. Secondly, Reno has no defense. They’ve already lost a pair of games where the offense has put up more than 40 points, including one on this field against a 4-7 Air Force team in the midst of their worst season this decade. Three different opponents have rushed for 200+ yards AND thrown for 200+ yards against this stop unit in their last six ballgames. They’ve allowed 30 or more points nine times in eleven games. I expect the Rebels surprisingly potent offense to march up and down the field. Third, bowl eligibility matters – A LOT – for this UNLV squad, bowl free since 2013 (and the conference they play in, as UNLV is the only remaining team from the Mountain West that still can get there). Head coach Tony Sanchez: “Every game at UNLV is significant. You are talking about a team that has been bleeding for a long time. Every chance we have to move the program forward, to show progress, to get ourselves in the conversation to get a bowl game, it’s a big, big deal.” UNLV senior defensive lineman Mike Hughes, talking about the humiliation UNLV suffered in a 45-10 season ending home loss to Reno last year: “There’s no way to sugarcoat it: Last year was embarrassing. Seeing (the cannon) rolled away at the end of the game, that’s a picture that has been in my mind the whole year. I’m definitely looking forward to bringing it back.” Live dog here! Take UNLV. |
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11-25-17 | Georgia -11 v. Georgia Tech | 38-7 | Win | 100 | 23 h 18 m | Show | |
Take Georgia (#167) Think Georgia is looking ahead to the SEC Championship Game next week? Think again! Kirby Smart was embarrassed by the Bulldogs defensive effort against the Yellow Jackets option last year in a 28-27 home loss and vowed not to let it happen again. Georgia Tech rushed for 5.4 yards per carry in that ballgame while gaining a whopping 164 yards on their six pass completions, rallying from a 13 point fourth quarter deficit to win. Kirby Smart got this job because of his ‘defensive guru’ reputation. Georgia’s defense has certainly been an elite unit all season long – only the uptempo, balanced offenses of Missouri and Auburn have produced 20 points against the Bulldogs this season. And Smart has been working on stopping the Yellow Jackets option since the summer, spending time every single week on Monday’s working to stop the Ramblin’ Wreck triple option attack. Smart’s quote, about his preparation defending the triple option this year: “I felt like you have to familiarize yourself. Really the players, if nothing more than your scout team, can only be so efficient doing something they don’t do all the time, but they can be as efficient as possible. So those Mondays have been really critical for them, those Mondays have been critical for our young players who haven’t been exposed to it. We have worked really hard on that. And then we spent some time in the off week.” Georgia Tech has multiple issues here. First, they don’t have many weapons, with QB Taquon Marshall carrying the ball more than any other Yellow Jacket QB this decade, by a fairly wide margin. Marshall has shown signs of wearing down from the heavy workload of late – the Yellow Jackets bye week came back on the first Saturday of October. Marshall is a master at breaking tackles, a big part of his success. But given the Bulldogs elite quartet of linebackers – a group that could all play on Sunday’s in the next year or two – I don’t expect Marshall to break many tackles here, which means the Georgia Tech offense is likely to struggle. That’s particularly bad news for Paul Johnson’s squad because there’s ample reason to think the Yellow Jackets defense is poised for a rough day as well. That defense let go of the rope in an ugly second half run-out at Duke last week. Now they’ll be facing a powerful rushing squad – Nick Chubb and Sony Michel average nearly seven yards per carry between them – combined with a potent passing game (Jake Fromm is averaging 9.2 yards per attempt). No surprise here if this game gets ugly for the home underdog…..Take Georgia. |
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11-24-17 | California +7 v. UCLA | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 55 h 1 m | Show | |
Take California (#143) The betting markets have done exactly what we expect them to do when a coach gets fired before the end of the season; a classic knee jerk reaction. That’s why the Bruins are still laying a full touchdown here in a game they’ll be hard pressed to win, let alone win by any sort of a margin. UCLA offensive coordinator Jeff Fisch will serve as the interim coach this week. Reading between the lines from the players quotes after the firing, this doesn’t feel like a ‘win one for the Gipper’ type of effort for the home favorite, even with the potential for a bowl berth on the line with a victory here. Frankly, given UCLA’s struggles this season and their ongoing coaching search, a lower tier bowl bid isn’t much of a motivator for this squad. And given the season long struggles of the UCLA defense (particularly against the run, ranked #128), this is not an easy team to lay points with regardless of the circumstances. The only pointspread of -7 or higher that UCLA has covered all year came in Week 2 against Hawaii. Cal beat UCLA 36-10 as an underdog last year in Sonny Dykes final game with the team, and there’s no reason to think that the Bears can’t do it again in 2017! Cal came out of their bye last week with another shutdown defensive effort and their strong secondary matches up fairly well with Josh Rosen and the UCLA passing game. The Bears, like UCLA, are playing for a bowl bid, but there’s no questioning Cal’s motivation in Justin Wilcox’s first year – this team needs the extra practices and would be thrilled with a minor bowl invite, unlike their counterparts on the other sideline. Cal QB Ross Bowers has only thrown four INT’s in his last seven ballgames after throwing eight INT’s in his first four starts, making better decisions with the football. And Bears RB Patrick Laird is up to a full 6.0 yards per carry now; off a 7.7 ypc effort against Stanford last week; primed to run the football down the Bruins collective throats on Friday Night. Be sure to take at least a taste of the moneyline for this one, with +230 or higher widely available as I write this. Take Cal. |
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11-18-17 | Arizona University +2.5 v. Oregon | 28-48 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Arizona (#365) I want my money ON Khalil Tate and the Arizona Wildcats any time they face a defense that is vulnerable. The best QB in the country that nobody is talking about did it again in their last road game, rallying Arizona from a 28-6 deficit to tie the game 35-35 at USC before a late Trojans score doomed their chances. And Tate did it again last week, torching Oregon State for 49 points, bouncing back nicely from the USC defeat. RichRod knows that his QB has probably saved his job, improving from 3-9 last year to 7-3 this season. His quote: “(that can happen) when you’re getting the kind of quarterback play we’ve gotten out of Khalil.” Despite barely playing the first four games, Tate ranks seventh in the nation in rushing (1,293 yards)and leads the PAC-12 in passing efficiency (155.5) – better than Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen; both likely first round draft choices next spring. Oregon head coach Willie Taggert knows what he’s up against too. Asked about his defensive gameplan, here is Taggert’s quote: “Pray. No one has stopped him yet this year. He’s a heck of a talent. Big-time football player and is really good with the ball in his hand.” The Ducks have lost four out of five since starting QB Justin Herbert got hurt, with all four losses coming by 17 points or more – non-competitive blowouts. Herbert could be back this week (officially a ‘game time decision’) and the markets are likely to move significantly based on his availability. But I’m not convinced he’s going to be anywhere near 100% if he does get the start. If he doesn’t the backup Burmeister has been nothing short of awful (14 points or less in all four recent losses and a 2-6 TD-INT ratio). And regardless of which QB gets the start, even off a bye week, Oregon’s defense has been gashed repeatedly with some particularly ugly numbers against the run. Wrong team favored here. Take Arizona. |
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11-18-17 | Texas A&M +3 v. Ole Miss | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 30 h 1 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Texas A&M (#413) Don’t be fooled for a minute by the recent run of success from the Ole Miss Rebels. Yes, Ole Miss has notched back-2-back wins with their backup QB behind center, knocking off Kentucky and Louisiana- Lafayette. But the Rebels defense was torched in both games. The Rajin’ Cajuns just hung 427 yards on them in Oxford, despite playing without four starters who were suspended on gameday. Every SEC foe they’ve faced has scored at least 34 points against the Rebels defense. And every SEC foe has gained at least 400 yards against them; even offensively challenged squads like LSU and Vandy. That’s particularly bad news for the Rebels considering that Texas A&M finally has their starting quarterback healthy and back on the field again. Remember back on the first weekend of the season when Texas A&M got out to a 31-3 lead before blowing the game against UCLA? QB Nick Starkel got hurt and left that contest with the Aggies leading by three touchdowns. Frankly, the offense wasn’t the same without him. Starkel was named the full time starter again last week in any easy, confidence building tuneup victory over New Mexico; a game that was 48-0 at halftime. Three Aggies receivers had more than 100 receiving yards in that ballgame, yet the markets have basically made no power rating adjustment to the return of Starkel to the lineup, sending frosh Kelly Mund back to the bench where he belongs. Ole Miss defensive coordinator Wesley McGriff knows what’s coming: “[Starkel] can pinpoint the ball. He's got a big arm. He can make every throw, and they're going to challenge us vertically." That’s particularly bad news considering that Ole Miss can’t stop the run either, allowing a whopping 5.8 yards per carry for the season. Ole Miss hasn’t had a bye week since mid-September, not exactly a fresh stop unit these days. And they’ve got their biggest rival up next on a short week, prepping for the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State – the only game that really matters for interim head coach Matt Luke’s future with the program. The Rebels lost their NFL caliber starting QB when Shea Patterson got hurt. Backup Jordan Ta’amu has played great in his absence so far, in three games against weak defenses. Texas A&M leads the SEC in sacks – they’ve got a nasty pass rush, primed to make life miserable for inexperienced backup QB’s. And if the Rebels fall behind here (as I expect they will), things could get ugly. Coach Luke: “You don’t want to get in a drop-back game where you’re throwing it and they know you’re throwing it….. They’re an aggressive, attacking defense and force you to make mistakes. It’s important we play really well and limit the negative plays.” Good luck with that, coach. Big Ticket: Take Texas A&M. |
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11-18-17 | Texas +3.5 v. West Virginia | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
Take Texas (#341) I’ve used this same basic write-up to support the Texas Longhorns in three previous tries as an underdog in Big 12 play, and I have no hesitation about using it again this week as Texas travels to Morgantown to take on the Mountaineers. Numbers have been edited slightly to reflect current realities: “There is no better coach in college football as an underdog than Tom Herman. Herman was the offensive coordinator at Ohio State under Urban Meyer when the Buckeyes won a national title, knocking off Wisconsin, Alabama and Oregon with their third string quarterback. At Houston, Herman’s teams pulled off outright upsets against the likes of Louisville (twice), Oklahoma and Florida State. At HOUSTON! “Now with the Longhorns, we’ve already seen Tom Herman’s squad excel as an underdog. As +17 dogs at USC, Texas took the Trojans to overtime before losing by only three. They covered wire-2-wire as dogs in the Red River Shootout against Oklahoma. Their defense shut down mighty Oklahoma State the following week, another wire-2-wire ATS cover as an underdog. When you add up all the numbers, the results are legitimately impressive. In his last 15 tries as an underdog, Tom Herman’s teams are 11-4. That’s Straight Up! They’re 14-1 ATS, the only SU losses coming against teams with Top 10 talent: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU and USC. That, folks, is a track record worth betting on every single time!” Longhorns QB Sam Ehlinger is expected back in the lineup this week, expected to split snaps with Shane Buechele. Herman on Ehlinger: “He’s a tough dude. He doesn’t get rattled. He’s competitive as all get out.” West Virginia ranks #93 in the country at stopping the run, so having the mobile Ehlinger available is a big deal for the Longhorns! Defensively, we’ve already seen Texas have success against the likes of Baker Mayfield, Mason Rudolph and Sam Darnold. Mountaineers head coach Dana Holgorsen knows what he’s up against: “Their defense is probably the best we’ve faced all year. Just a whole bunch of talent.” West Virginia’s defense? Not so much talent……. Take Texas. |
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11-11-17 | Notre Dame -3 v. Miami-FL | Top | 8-41 | Loss | -105 | 55 h 50 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Notre Dame (#165) The pointspread for this game tells you all you need to know, with the Fighting Irish installed as road favorites despite Miami’s strong showing on this field against Virginia Tech last week. Miami is a fraudulent Top 10 team -- period. Their 8-0 record speaks volumes about who they’ve played, not how good they are. Most concerning, the Hurricanes have struggled to control the flow in the trenches, very bad news against the dominant Notre Dame offensive line. Miami is anything BUT fresh, rested and ready, playing down to the final possession in four of their last five games. The ‘Canes last bye week came in early September due to Hurricane Irma. This will be their eighth consecutive game since that unscheduled bye, and I expect it to show as fatigue builds up after halftime. Hurricanes QB Malik Rosier is anything BUT an elite collegiate signal caller. Over the past two games, Rosier is just 27-60 passing with four interceptions. Even playing with a lead against the Hokies last week, Rosier couldn’t avoid key mistakes. And it’s surely worth noting that in their previous two games, the Canes were outrushed 440-198 against Syracuse and North Carolina – not ACC elites on defense, to put it mildly. My clients and I cashed a Big Ticket winner supporting Notre Dame in their 49-14 blowout over USC last month. Let me use an excerpt from that write-up here, with numbers lightly edited to reflect current realities: “Football games are won and lost in the trenches. The astute handicapper will always assess the matchups on the offensive and defensive lines before placing a wager. Those matchups for this game are so one-sided, and the pointspread is so short that the Irish are a clear choice to this bettor, worthy of Big Ticket status”. “The Fighting Irish are LOADED on the offensive line. Senior left tackle Mike McClinchey and junior left guard Quenton Nelson both have ‘first round of the NFL draft’ potential for next spring. All five starters on that line could play on Sundays”. “Notre Dame ranks #4 in the nation in rushing yards and #1 in the nation in yards per carry, averaging a full seven yards every time they hand the football off. Josh Adams is averaging a whopping 8.7 yards per rush; Dexter Williams is at 10.7 and Deon McIntosh is at 5.7 ypc.” All eight Notre Dame wins this year have come by double digit margins. Their only loss – by a single point to Georgia – looks even better now, with the Bulldogs ranked #1 by the playoff committee; having won all of THEIR other games by two touchdowns or more. And don’t be fooled by the ‘competitive’ final score in the Notre Dame game last week. The Fighting Irish led by 32 before Brian Kelly pulled his starters, leading to three late ‘meaningless’ touchdowns for Wake (meaningless for the game flow, meaning FULL for the pointspread result). Notre Dame’s defense has forced multiple turnovers six times this season, forcing at least one turnover in every single game. Meanwhile their low risk offense has only turned the ball over twice in their last six games combined! If Miami sells out to stop the run, Brandon Wimbush can beat them deep. If they keep their safeties back to prevent the deep balls, the Irish will run the ball down their collective throats. Look for the Irish to get one step closer to the playoff picture with a comfortable win here. Big Ticket: Take Notre Dame. |
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11-11-17 | Virginia v. Louisville -11 | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 50 h 6 m | Show | |
Take Louisville (#164) We learned a few things about Virginia in their last road contest, a poorly played defeat at Pitt. First, while this team was REALLY hungry to gain bowl eligibility, they were cognizant that it wasn’t going to be their only opportunity to do so. The Cavs got that monkey off their backs last week, pulling the big upset over Georgia Tech and notching their sixth win. Their last winning season and bowl bid came back in 2011 – not a player nor a coach with the program had achieved that goal before. It was an intense back and forth game, followed by an intense celebration. I’m expecting the Cavaliers to be relatively flat this week, kind of like they were at Pitt; a game that broke wrong early and didn’t produce much fight late. I do not trust QB Kurt Benkert to make plays on the road against a solid defense. Benkert’s numbers in ACC play aren’t very good: 53% completions and 5.3 yards per attempt average, compared to 66% and 7.2 ypp in non-conference play. Virginia is not a team loaded with playmaking weapons for Benkert to hit downfield – this is a dink and dunk offense. And the Cavs defense must make the transition from facing an option attack to facing Bobby Petrino and Lamar Jackson running the spead with extra time to prepare. I do not expect that to be an easy transition for Bronco Mendenhall’s stop unit to make. Louisville went into their bye week sitting in last place in the ACC Atlantic Division, something that did not sit well with them during their extra time off. They also still remember Virginia’s near upset last year as 33.5 point underdogs. I’m expecting a focused Louisville squad on Saturday, primed to close out their three game season ending stretch against Virginia, Syracuse and Kentucky with some fireworks. There’s no Cardinals betting bandwagon at. Louisville has yet to cover a single pointspread as a favorite in 2017, which leads to cheap pointspreads like this one by the time we get to mid-November. Yes, Louisville is a notch or two down from last year’s 9-4 squad, and yes, Virginia is a notch or two better. But Louisville was -33.5 on the road at Virginia last year. This year they’re -11 at home; a FOUR TD power rating adjustment from the 2016 meeting. That’s too much of an adjustment, and -11 (or anything close) is too cheap! The reigning Heisman winner is primed for a breakout showing….. Take Louisville. |
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11-11-17 | Michigan State +17 v. Ohio State | 3-48 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Michigan State (#143) I understand that the Spartans are a very popular ‘public’ choice in early start action on Saturday, while the wiseguys are clearly taking the Ohio State side. That’s fine – I’ll stand with the Joes against the Pros when it comes to this matchup! Mark Dantonio has coached circles around Urban Meyer in every recent meeting. Sparty was a 3 TD underdog last year against Ohio St. They lost 17-16. In 2015, Sparty was +16.5 on this field in Columbus and won outright 17-14. 2014? Michigan State hung 37 on the Buckeyes, the most Ohio State allowed all season. 2013? Michigan St knocked off Meyer and the Buckeyes in the Big 10 Championship Game, winning by double digits as the underdog. In 2012, it was a 17-16 slugfest. In the five previous Dantonio – Meyer meetings, Ohio State has only been LEADING by more than two touchdowns for a total of five minutes, back in the 2014 game, and they’ve never won by that margin. It’s been a tight series, even in years where Ohio State has won the national championship, and even when Sparty went 4-8 last year. Michigan State is getting better as the season progresses. Their young defense has grown up in a hurry, and QB Brian Lewerke has shown dramatic improvement from his early season play, coming off back-2-back 400 yard passing games. Ohio State, on the other hand, has just seen their defense get shredded in back-2-back weeks, giving up 243 rushing yards to Iowa last week as a 17-17 tie turned into a 55-24 loss. That came just one week after Penn State hung 38 on them right here at the Horseshoe. The Buckeyes still have all kinds of elite defensive talent, but it’s not the most confident stop unit in the world these days. And Meyer is navigating tricky waters this week when it comes to motivation for bouncing back. We saw some quit in Ohio State last week, and for an entire roster that has never been out of the college football playoff discussion this early before, there are legitimate questions about their motivation between now and the Michigan game. All the stats, the season long power ratings and the statistical profiles force this pointspread to be where it is; out of whack with current reality. Joes seem to recognize this more than pros when it comes to this matchup. Be sure to take at least a little taste of the moneyline in this one…..Take Michigan State. |
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11-11-17 | Duke -2.5 v. Army | 16-21 | Loss | -120 | 47 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Duke (#141) I’ve got two basic rationales for a wager on Duke in early start action on Saturday. First, spot advantages don’t get much bigger than this one for the Blue Devils. Second, Duke is primed to shut down the Black Knights more than their defensive statistical profile might indicate; offering us line value even with the Blue Devils priced as short road chalk here. Let’s start with the spot. After a grueling stretch of nine straight weeks with a game, the Blue Devils finally got a bye last week to rest and recuperate. Duke won their first four, then lost their next five. Their chance for bowl eligibility -- salvaging their season following that 4-0 start – rests with this game, this week, and they know it. I expect Duke to bring maximum intensity here. The same cannot be said for Army. At 7-2, they’ve already clinched a rare bowl bid, and the Black Knights are coming off their biggest win of the season; a 21-0 shutout over Air Force. Army’s seniors had been winless against their rivals, and the Black Knights didn’t need to throw a single pass all afternoon, playing from ahead – it was a max intensity game played under advantageous circumstances. While this Army squad is every bit as good as last year’s team, let’s not forget two things about the state of the program. First, last year’s 8-5 season was their one and only winning campaign of the 21st century. And second, they’ve been favored by double digits in four of their seven wins – it’s not like the Black Knights have been knocking off ACC caliber foes to get to 7-2. In fact, their win over Air Force was their first as an underdog; favored by at least six points in every other game that they won. Duke beat Army 44-3 in 2015 and 13-6 last year. Note the common theme – Army’s offense didn’t work against the Blue Devils defense. I expect that to be the case this year as well. David Cutcliffe’s squad preps for the option every year, because they face Georgia Tech in conference every year. Cutcliffe usually schedules another option team like Army the previous two years or Navy back in 2013, when a nine win Middies squad suffered their worst loss of the season, 35-7, against Duke. Duke has pulled off a pair of outright upsets against Georgia Tech in the last three seasons as well; clearly a ‘bet-on’ team when they face option attacks (6-1 ATS L7 tries). Take Duke. |
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11-04-17 | BYU +14.5 v. Fresno State | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 82 h 40 m | Show | |
Take BYU (#401) Preseason power polls had BYU in the Top 40 nationally, while Fresno was routinely ranked outside the top 100 teams in college football. If this game had been played in September, BYU would have been the road favorite. Instead, they’re more than two touchdown underdogs. That, folks, is ‘value’ defined, especially since BYU’s problems have not been due to an injury barrage – the roster they had in August hasn’t been decimated. BYU is coming off their best game of the season; giving them a much needed jolt of energy. Fresno is coming off their worst game of the season, a real confidence sapper for a program with no recent history of winning. Fresno has been an ATS powerhouse, suffering their first ATS loss of the entire season last week, a team that’s built up a pretty big bandwagon here in Las Vegas. BYU has been on the other end of the spectrum, opening the season with an 0-8 ATS mark prior to last week, including a stretch of seven consecutive SU losses, six of which came by more than two touchdowns. Again, that’s the definition of ‘value’ – one team’s power rating has moved up almost every week this year, the other team’s rating has moved down almost every week. Not last week, though! And last week’s results are meaningful for both squads. BYU needed a win in the worst way, coming off a humiliating loss as road chalk at East Carolina. Defensive lineman Sione Takitaki: “Definitely getting this win feels really great and I know it does for the coaches and for us players to finally get a win and get going from there. We have Fresno next week so we’re not going to hang our hats on this one.” Head coach Kalani Sitake: “Having optimism isn’t good enough. Just saying things will get better isn’t good enough. You have to combine that with hard work and preparation. When you get those and you do it right, then you have confidence and that shows on the field. Although it wasn’t perfect (Saturday), there’s a lot of things we can still do. It’s a lot easier to make those corrections when you win.” Read between the lines there. It’s clear that the Cougars are in a much better place mentally than they were last week at this time. And while I do expect a better showing from Fresno this week than last, the Bulldogs have a problem in the trenches against BYU’s superior size and strength. The Cougars are truly battle tested, having faced the likes of LSU, Wisconsin, Utah, Mississippi State and Boise. Fresno’s signature win came against San Diego State, non-competitive in either ‘step-up’ non-conference game because they were unable to bang in the trenches with the big boys. Jeff Tedford’s team isn’t built for blowouts against superior physical teams. And it wasn’t a lack of focus last week that Tedford can harp on here. Fresno center Aaron Mitchell: “There wasn’t a lack of focus out there. There wasn’t a lack of focus at practice. We need to be more dialed-in and we need to play better, bottom line.” Even if they’re dialed in this week, extending the margin against the Cougars won’t be easy. Fresno would be thrilled to win this game by a touchdown. So would I! Take BYU. |
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11-04-17 | Virginia Tech -2.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 10-28 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 5 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Virginia Tech (#341) Honestly, the pointspread for this game tells you all you need to know. Miami is a fraudulent Top 10 team. Their 7-0 record speaks volumes about who they’ve played, not how good they are. If you’re looking for a ‘signature’ win from the Hurricanes, keep looking. I guess their one point escape against Georgia Tech would qualify – the only winning team (4-3, barely) they’ve beaten since their opener against Toledo from the MAC but make no mistake about it – Mark Richt’s squad is anything BUT battle tested. Miami is also dealing with a handful of key mid-season injuries. Their running game hasn’t worked since Mark Walton got hurt, outrushed 440-198 over the past two weeks against Syracuse and North Carolina. QB Malik Rosier hurt his shoulder last week and is ‘a little sore’ this week, according to Mark Richt. Starting cornerback Dee Delaney is a question mark here as well. But the bigger issue is in the trenches, where Miami has struggled to dominate all season long. Virginia Tech owned both sides of the line of scrimmage in last year’s 37-16 smackdown over the ‘Canes in Blacksburg, winning the rushing battle 251-42. And there’s ample reason to think the Hokies are capable of enjoying that kind of dominance on the ground against that suspect Miami front seven on defense this year as well. My clients and I cashed a winning bet on Virginia Tech as home chalk against North Carolina two weeks ago; a 59-7 beatdown. Here’s a brief excerpt from that write-up: ‘Legendary defensive coordinator Bud Foster sounds pretty confident that the backdoor won’t be open here: “We’re not anywhere close, in my opinion, to where we can be and the kids see that and are working that way. That’s still exciting, that we can continue to grow and develop as a unit and as a team.” Over the last three weeks, Virginia Tech has had a bye, and cruised to 59-7 and 24-3 victories. That defense that Bud Foster was touting as ‘not anywhere close’ to their potential just gave up a grand total of ten points in 120 minutes of football, with neither foe reaching 250 yards against them while they forced five turnovers in the process. This is most assuredly a ‘bet-on’ stop unit and QB Josh Jackson continues to impress running Justin Fuente’s offense, even in hostile road environments. The Hokies are relatively fresh, rested and ready for their challenge; battle tested after facing West Virginia away from home as well as truly elite Clemson. Miami is anything BUT fresh, rested and ready, playing down to the final possession in each of their last four games. The ‘Canes last bye week came in early September due to Hurricane Irma. This will be their seventh consecutive game since their last break, and I expect it to show. Dramatically! Big Ticket: Take Virginia Tech. |
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11-04-17 | Texas +7 v. TCU | 7-24 | Loss | -115 | 78 h 56 m | Show | |
Take Texas (#381) I’ve used this same basic write-up to support the Texas Longhorns in both previous tries as an underdog in Big 12 play. Numbers have been edited slightly to reflect current realities: “There is no better coach in college football as an underdog than Tom Herman. Herman was the offensive coordinator at Ohio State under Urban Meyer when the Buckeyes won a national title, knocking off Wisconsin, Alabama and Oregon with their third string quarterback. At Houston, Herman’s teams pulled off outright upsets against the likes of Louisville (twice), Oklahoma and Florida State. At HOUSTON! “Now with the Longhorns, we’ve already seen Tom Herman’s squad excel as an underdog. As +17 dogs at USC, Texas took the Trojans to overtime before losing by only three. They covered wire-2-wire as dogs in the Red River Shootout against Oklahoma. Their defense shut down mighty Oklahoma State the following week, another wire-2-wire ATS cover as an underdog. When you add up all the numbers, the results are legitimately impressive. In his last 14 tries as an underdog, Tom Herman’s teams are 11-3. That’s Straight Up! They’re 14-0 ATS, the only SU losses coming against teams with Top 10 talent: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and USC. That, folks, is a track record worth betting on every single time!” TCU QB Kenny Hill is remarkably inconsistent, coming off a truly miserable showing at Iowa State. Hill has put up some big numbers against lesser defenses, but his three worst showings of the season have come against the three best defenses that he’s faced in what’s been a very easy schedule when it comes to opposing defenses. Texas has already held Iowa State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Baylor to their lowest scoring output in any game this season. Yes, that’s four of the five Big 12 opponents that they’ve faced. They’ve already seen Baker Mayfield, Mason Rudolph and Sam Darnold, battle tested against elite QB’s and strong passing games. I’m not expecting a big game from Kenny Hill here. Longhorns QB Sam Ehlinger is expected back in the lineup this week, although he could split snaps with Shane Buechele, who was excellent last week against Baylor. Herman on Ehlinger: “He’s a tough dude. He doesn’t get rattled. He’s competitive as all get out.” After playing in a litany of ‘right team at the right time’ type ballgames to get off to their 7-1 start, the Horned Frogs are primed to fall back to earth on Saturday. Take Texas |
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11-04-17 | Syracuse +5 v. Florida State | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 71 h 11 m | Show | |
Take Syracuse (#331) At this stage of the campaign, there’s nothing to salvage for Florida State. A team that came into the campaign with national championship dreams is now 2-5, off back-2-back losses as favorites against Louisville and Boston College. And head coach Jimbo Fisher isn’t pushing any of the right buttons to get his team to respond. Here’s Fisher’s quote prior to last week’s game at Boston College, following the loss to Louisville: “We're coaching a season. We have to teach the players how to do it. They've done it before. We'll continue to do it the rest of the year. I have total confidence in our coaches and what they can do, and the situations we put them in. We've got to learn to coach three to five plays better, and get them to understand how to play better." Florida State then proceeded to lose 35-3 as favorites to BC. For the sixth time in seven games, their defense forced one turnover or less. For the seventh time in seven games, the offense failed to reach 30 points. Fisher has never been in this spot before, coaching a losing FSU team down the stretch of a dismal campaign. I’m not expecting it to go well. And the Seminoles basic and biggest offensive weaknesses – a frosh QB who doesn’t look good under pressure playing behind an offensive line that has only one senior in the two-deep – isn’t likely to get fixed anytime soon. Florida State has yet to cover the pointspread in a single game this season, but the wiseguys continue to factor their overall talent level into the equation – the markets haven’t appropriately crashed on this team because their personnel grades out so well on paper. Syracuse is at the other end of the spectrum in that regard. Based on pure talent differential, this pointspread is too short. But with FSU playing like a ‘dead’ team and Syracuse showing all kinds of mettle in hostile road environments, basing this pointspread on pure talent differential is not something I’m willing to do. The Orange are the antithesis of Florida State from a value standpoint – their last ATS loss came back in the first week of September, with five spread covers and a push in their last six contests. We’ve seen them go on the road and battle for a full sixty minutes against the likes of LSU and NC State. We saw them beat mighty Clemson in straight up fashion and hang tough at Miami despite committing four turnovers. Fresh, rested and ready off their bye week, the Orange are live to win this one in SU fashion. Take the points, but be sure to take at least a taste of Syracuse on the moneyline. Take Syracuse. |
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10-28-17 | Texas Tech +20 v. Oklahoma | 27-49 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 39 m | Show | |
Take Texas Tech (#201) Oklahoma’s last pointspread cover came back in September, against Tulane. The only two games that the Sooners have won by more than two scores this year came against UTEP and Tulane, teams that couldn’t compete physically with Lincoln Riley’s squad in the trenches. Oklahoma is 0-4 ATS in big 12 conference play, in large part because their defense can’t stop anybody. Three of the Sooners four Big 12 foes have hung 35+ against them; a defense picking up right where they left off last year – their worst defense of the decade. Texas Tech hung 59 points on Oklahoma last year, the third hotly contested, competitive game between these two schools in the last four seasons. Texas Tech had 42 first downs and 854 yards of offense in that contest. And there’s absolutely no reason to think that the Red Raiders won’t be capable of trading touchdowns with the Sooners once again this year. Oklahoma couldn’t get stops against Baylor. Iowa State was held to seven points at home against Texas, but they hung 38 on the road in Norman. Kansas State’s backup QB led them to five TD’s against the Sooners last week. Facing a Red Raiders offense that has put up 127 points in their three previous road games, we can expect the Sooners stop unit to struggle once again on Saturday. Texas Tech hasn’t lost a game by 20 points all year. They traded points with Oklahoma State, losing by only seven against the Cowboys potent offense. They traded points with West Virginia, hanging 35 on the Mountaineers. They traded points with Arizona State, winning 52-45, a victory that looks even better now considering the Sun Devils stellar defensive showings over the last two weeks. With a 9-3 ATS mark in Kliff Kingsbury’s last dozen tries as a road underdog, the Red Raiders sure look like ‘live’ dogs again this week! Take Texas Tech. |
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10-28-17 | TCU -6.5 v. Iowa State | 7-14 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 21 m | Show | |
Take TCU (#193) When Gary Patterson has a good team – like he does this year – the Horned Frogs tend to be a strong ‘bet-on’ team when they hit the highway. TCU has dominated all three road games so far this season, winning 28-7 at Arkansas, 44-31 at Oklahoma State and 26-6 at Kansas State, all easy wins and covers. There’s been a pretty big class difference between these two teams in recent seasons. Last year, the Horned Frogs were -24.5 in a 41-20 win over the Cyclones. The year before that, it was -21 and a 45-21 final score. In 2014, it was TCU -35, and a 55-3 win for the favorite. The betting markets are pricing in a substantial improvement for Iowa State here in 2017. I’m not convinced that it’s warranted. Iowa State has gone 3-9, 2-10, 3-9 and 3-9 SU since 2012. This year, they’re 5-2, including an outright upset as 31 point underdogs at Oklahoma. Of course, the toughest part of their schedule is still to come, and Iowa State lost by double digits while scoring only seven points in their last try as a home dog against Texas. And former walk-on Kyle Kempt is no elite starter at QB, taking a real step up in class against this defense! TCU ranks #1 in the nation in total defense, best in the Big 12. Senior QB Kenny Hill has shown his maturity repeatedly in hostile environments, with a 15-3 TD – INT ratio and a 70% completion rate. And the Horned Frogs are balanced, running for 170+ yards six times in seven games. There’s a legitimate class difference here that is not reflected in this pointspread; a game that the Horned Frogs are primed to win by a TD or more. Take TCU. |
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10-28-17 | NC State v. Notre Dame UNDER 59 | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 51 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Notre Dame – NC State UNDER (#179-180) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ winner supporting Notre Dame last week in their blowout win over USC. The premise was simple. USC was an injury riddled mess on the defensive line. Notre Dame’s biggest strength is their offensive line. No surprise, then, that Notre Dame rushed for more than 300 yards for the third consecutive week in a 49-14 win over the Trojans. That was then; this is now. Instead of an injury depleted Trojans defensive front, this time around, Notre Dame must face NC State’s stout unit. After facing Miami-Ohio and North Carolina the previous two weeks, this is a HUGE step up in class for the Irish offensive line. In their only two previous games against stout defensive fronts – Michigan State and Georgia – the Irish did NOT dominate the line of scrimmage and did NOT run the football effectively throughout. QB Brandon Wimbush has been battling injuries all year, with only 77 completions and a 51.3 completion percentage. I do not trust Wimbush to move the Irish offense in a game where their running game doesn’t control the flow. And Notre Dame’s running game isn’t likely to control the flow here against NC State’s stout defensive front. The Wolfpack have held every opponent to 116 rushing yards or less, and every opponent to 25 points or less, even Louisville. They currently rank #6 in the country against the run. How? Simple! Their 4-2-5 defense has a front six that consists entirely of senior starters, a veteran unit that is built to stop powerful OL’s. But Wolfpack QB Ryan Finley rather pedestrian and his receiving corps lacks playmakers. Expect BOTH teams to struggle to control the line of scrimmage on offense, leading to a relatively low scoring affair. Take the Under. |
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10-28-17 | Virginia +3 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -105 | 48 h 12 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Virginia (#137) Virginia played their worst game of the season last Saturday, blown out 41-10 at home as TD favorites against Boston College. Pitt played their best game of the season last Saturday, taking advantage of a tired, depleted Duke team that hasn’t had a bye week yet, winning outright on the road as nine point underdogs. I’m expecting both teams to revert back to the mean this week. The quotes out of the Virginia locker room this week were fully focused on the task at hand, not a team that is primed to suffer a hangover following their first loss since early September. The back half of their schedule is brutal: Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami and Virginia Tech, teams that are a combined 21-6. The Cavs are one win shy of bowl eligibility and they expect to get it here. Senior LB Micah Kiser: “We’ve been playing well, we had one bad game and that doesn’t define the season. There’s no question we can get back…... We were riding really high, probably a little bit too high. But we want to play with confidence. You win some, you lose some. We lost this one. We got smacked in the mouth. There’s no way around it. (But) there’s no talk about the past. There’s no problem.” Cavs junior RB Jordan Ellis: “This game will really humble you. I thought we were better because we were 5-1. This brings us back down a little bit. This gives us a chance to correct the mistakes we have and go into next week with a chip on our shoulders because we kind of got embarrassed at home.” It’s not like the Cavs can’t win on the highway. We saw them go to Boise and dominate the Broncos on the blue turf; a 42-23 smackdown as 14 point underdogs and won SU by six on the highway in their only other try, at North Carolina. Senior QB Kurt Benkart has a 15-4 TD – INT ratio. Pitt’s star senior cornerback and team captain, Avonte Maddox is hurt, and his likely replacement, Phillipie Motley isn’t 100% after dealing with his own injury issues, setting up Benkart for a big day. Let’s not forget how badly this defense got torched at home when they faced Oklahoma State’s strong passing game. It wasn’t much better against NC State, another double digit home loss. And it’s certainly not like Pitt is primed to trade points with opponents like they did last year. Senior starter Max Browne is out for the year, and backup Ben Dinucci has been underwhelming to say the least, just 8-18 at Duke last Saturday. Pat Narduzzi is notably short on offensive playmakers this year, and Pitt is not the better of these two teams. Big Ticket: Take Virginia |
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10-26-17 | Eastern Michigan v. Northern Illinois -7 | 27-30 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Northern Illinois (#108) I’m going to keep this write-up short and sweet, because the concept here is very simple. Eastern Michigan has hung tough with everybody this year, with each of their last six games decided by a touchdown or less. But we cannot expect the Eagles ‘A’ game tonight. They’ve lost each of those last five close games, including a pair of them in overtime. Last week’s OT loss to arch rival Western Michigan was the worst of the bunch; the type of defeat that won’t make it easy for Eastern Michigan to get going tonight. Travelling, on short rest, coming off that OT loss, this is one spot where the Eagles are primed for a sluggish showing. That’s not the case for Northern Illinois! Unlike Eastern Michigan, the Huskies are physically fresh, coming off an easy 48-17 blowout at Bowling Green. The Huskies have a strong homefield for the MAC, winning each of their last two home games by 3 TD’s or more. With frosh QB Marcus Childers settling into the starters role -- 7 TD’s to 1 INT over the last three weeks – and ‘stretch the field’ receiver Chad Beebe back on the field (6 catches for 124 yards last week), we can expect the Huskies to win by margin against the exhausted, demoralized Eagles. Take Northern Illinois. |
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10-21-17 | USC v. Notre Dame -3.5 | Top | 14-49 | Win | 100 | 52 h 9 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Notre Dame (#402) Football games are won and lost in the trenches. The astute handicapper will always assess the matchups on the offensive and defensive lines before placing a wager. Those matchups for this game are so one-sided, and the pointspread is so short that the Irish are a clear choice to this bettor, worthy of Big Ticket status. When these two teams met at the end of the season last year, Notre Dame was an injury riddled mess at the tail end of a dismal 4-8 campaign. USC rolled to an 18 point victory as 17.5 point favorites. That was then, this is now. In 2017, it’s USC dealing with a significant injury bugaboo right now – their defensive line is in absolute shambles. Brandon Pili, a true frosh from Alaska, is the only healthy, active regular at defensive tackle. Starter Josh Fatu is in concussion protocol. Five star recruit Kenny Bigelow quit the team. Frosh Marlon Tuipulotu just underwent season ending surgery. Junior Malik Dorton is still dealing with a knee injury he suffered last month. And let’s not forget that starting LB Porter Gustin is out with a broken toe and torn bicep, while starting defensive end Rasheem Green isn’t practicing with an ankle sprain. A cluster injury problem like that would be bad against any foe. Against Notre Dame in South Bend, it’s a freakin’ disaster! The Fighting Irish are LOADED on the offensive line. Senior left tackle Mike McClinchey and junior left guard Quenton Nelson both have ‘first round of the NFL draft’ potential for next spring. All five starters on that line could play on Sundays. Notre Dame ranks #5 in the nation in rushing yards and #2 in the nation in yards per carry. Josh Adams is averaging a whopping 9.0 yards per rush; Dexter Williams is at 10.7 and Deon McIntosh is at 5.8 ypc. Dual threat QB Brandon Wimbush is expected back in the lineup this week, although backup Ian Book played well in his staid in their last game at North Carolina. All five Notre Dame wins this year have come by 20 points or more. Their only loss – by a single point to Georgia – looks better now, with the Bulldogs a Top 5 squad that won all of THEIR other games by 20 points or more. They’ll be facing a Trojans squad in pointspread freefall, overvalued from Day 1 this year to the tune of a 1-6 ATS mark. Notre Dame’s defense has forced multiple turnovers in each of their last five games while their low risk offense has only turned the ball over seven times all season. USC’s offense has committed at least two turnovers in every game, unable to take care of the football. That’s a HUGE problem in a game where the Irish are primed to push USC around at the line of scrimmage and put themselves back in the college football playoff picture. VERY cheap price to lay given the circumstances! Big Ticket: Take Notre Dame. |
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10-21-17 | North Carolina v. Virginia Tech -20.5 | 7-59 | Win | 100 | 48 h 5 m | Show | |
Take Virginia Tech (#360) My clients and I cashed a winning bet against North Carolina last week. Let me start this write-up with an extended excerpt from what I wrote last week, all of which is still pertinent to for their trip to Blacksburg to take on Virginia Tech on Saturday. Numbers have been edited slightly to reflect current realities: “North Carolina is as strong a ‘bet-against’ team as you can find in college football this year. It was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Tar Heels anyway after they sent their QB Mitch Trubisky to the NFL after his junior season, along with the likes of Elijah Hood and Ryan Switzer – impact offensive playmakers. A home loss to Cal in Week 1 showed that very clearly. And that was BEFORE the injury bug really started to strike. “Nine guys who have started a game for the Tar Heels this year are now out for the season, and that doesn’t include a whole host of shorter term injuries and another whole host of guys who got hurt in camp, before the season even started. With a pair of ineffective QB’s throwing to a receiving corps that has lost their top five guys to injury, playing behind a weak offensive line and without any semblance of a running game to help them, the Tar Heels offense is stuck in the mud; producing only 48 points in their last four ballgames combined. “North Carolina’s defense is every bit as injury riddled, if not more. And unlike the offense, that defense was short on talent to begin with! The Tar Heels lost their one true leader on defense; the guy who called the plays in the huddle in Andre Smith. He’s out for the year. Senior strong safety Donnie Miles, the team’s career leader in starts, is hurt as well, as is senior DL Tyler Powell, sophomore safety DJ Ford and several others. The only team that North Carolina has been able to stop all year was Old Dominion…” While the Tar Heels are collapsing, the Hokies are in a great spot. They’re fresh, rested and ready off a bye week, looking to open up the offense for young QB Josh Jackson (13 TD passes, 66% completions and 55 rushing attempts already). This defense dominated the Tar Heels last year in a 34-3 win at Chapel Hill, and that was when North Carolina’s offense was elite. Legendary defensive coordinator Bud Foster sounds pretty confident that the backdoor won’t be open here: “We’re not anywhere close, in my opinion, to where we can be and the kids see that and are working that way. That’s still exciting, that we can continue to grow and develop as a unit and as a team.” Hokies head coach Justin Fuente has been an excellent bully; 5-1 ATS as home chalk against FBS foes here in Blacksburg. This one gets ugly for the road dog! Take Virginia Tech. |
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10-21-17 | Oklahoma State v. Texas +7 | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 45 h 32 m | Show | |
Take Texas (#392) My clients and I cashed a winning bet with the Texas Longhorns last week. Let me start this write-up with an excerpt from what I wrote last week. Numbers have been edited slightly to reflect current realities: “There is no better coach in college football as an underdog than Tom Herman. Herman was the offensive coordinator at Ohio State under Urban Meyer when the Buckeyes won a national title, knocking off Wisconsin, Alabama and Oregon with their third string quarterback. At Houston, Herman’s teams pulled off outright upsets against the likes of Louisville (twice), Oklahoma and Florida State. At HOUSTON! “Here in Austin, with the Longhorns, we’ve already seen Tom Herman’s squad excel as an underdog. As +17 dogs at USC, Texas took the Trojans to overtime before losing by only three. Last week, they covered wire-2-wire as dogs in the Red River Shootout against Oklahoma. And when you add up all the numbers, the results are legitimately impressive. In his last dozen tries as an underdog, Tom Herman’s teams are 11-2. That’s Straight Up! They’re 13-0 ATS, the only SU losses coming away from home against teams with Top 5 talent: Oklahoma and USC. That, folks, is a track record worth betting on every single time!” Longhorns QB Sam Ehlinger is ‘bet-on’ all the way right now. He threw for 278 yards and ran for 110 vs. the Sooners last week. Herman: “He’s a tough dude. He doesn’t get rattled. He’s competitive as all get out.” The Texas defense hasn’t allowed anybody to score more than 27 against them in regulation since their opener against Maryland. They’ve already seen Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, battle tested against elite QB’s and strong passing games. This is, by far, the best defense Oklahoma State has seen since TCU, and we certainly remember how that Cowboys offense got shut down at home by the Horned Frogs….. Take Texas |
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10-21-17 | Idaho v. Missouri OVER 63 | 21-68 | Win | 100 | 45 h 31 m | Show | |
Take Missouri – Idaho Over (#373-374) When Barry Odom arrived in Columbia, he promised to make the Missouri offense as fast paced as any offense in college football, the ultimate uptempo squad. As with many new, uptempo offenses, the Tigers struggled when stepping up in class, against the better defenses of the SEC. But when Missouri got to face a lesser foe with a slower defense, it got ugly for that opponent. Missouri hung 61 on eastern Michigan, 79 on Delaware State and 45 on Middle Tennessee. All three of those games flew Over the total by more than two touchdowns – even the one where their defense pitched a rare shutout! Fast forward to 2017. Missouri’s offense looked great in their opener against Missouri State; a game where the Tigers scored 72 points and generated more than 800 yards of total offense. But it was culture shock for Drew Lock and the Tigers when they stepped up in class, shut down completely by the likes of South Carolina and Purdue in September. Both of those games stayed Under the total by 4 TD’s or more. The betting markets did what betting markets do – they adjusted Missouri down, way down, from a totals perspective after their offense managed only 14 points for a third straight week, whipped by Auburn. In each of their last two games, Missouri was totaled in the 50’s. Kentucky has a better defense this year than in any recent season. Georgia’s defense is as good as any in the country this side of Alabama and Clemson. Yet Missouri moved the football effectively against both of those squads, scoring 34 and 28 points. No surprise, then, that both games FLEW Over the total by more than two touchdowns. Drew Lock has figured it out at the QB position and Missouri’s offense is really starting to click for the first time in the Barry Odom era. Idaho’s defense presents a major step down in class, compared to what they’ve been facing. And the Vandals own offense, led by senior QB Matt Linehan – a four year starter – is capable of putting TD’s on the board against a dismal Tigers stop unit that has allowed every single opponent they’ve faced this season to get into the 30’s. Expect a shootout! Take the OVER. |
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10-19-17 | Memphis v. Houston -2.5 | 42-38 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Houston (#304) Houston laid an egg at Tulsa last Saturday, losing 45-17 as two TD favorites. Memphis had a +4 turnover margin, and needed every one of those turnovers to win in their three point victory, failing to cover as 3.5 point chalk. But with Memphis sitting at 6-0 SU right now and the Cougars coming off an ass kicking, there’s no surprise that the markets have been moving in favor of the Tigers since the opener. That money is moving in the wrong direction if you take these quotes in mind, taken from the local papers in Houston and Memphis this week. Every quote – literally, every one I found – points towards the Cougars as short home chalk. Houston senior defensive end Nick Thurman: “As soon as we got back home (late Saturday night) we had to bury it and move on. Our whole focus is on Memphis. There's nothing we can do about that. There's now a sense of urgency around here.” Houston junior cornerback Isaiah Johnson: “There's been a lot of talk about how we used to do it in the past. But that's not important right now. It's about the 2017 Cougars. Not the 2015 team. Not the 2016 team. It's about this year. What do we want to leave as our legacy? We still have that chip on our shoulder that we lost a game we weren't suppose to lose. That loss only made us stronger. It also brought us together." Houston senior safety Terrell Williams: "Our season's far from over.” Memphis head coach Jay Norvell knows the dangers of this spot, one week after the Tigers woke up to find themselves in the Top 25 for the first time since 2015. He certainly doesn’t like the scheduling spot off the intense win over Navy: “I'd like to say that when the schedule came out I didn't notice, but I noticed. I noticed how these two games backed up to each other. It's a short week and we know we have to adapt some things to how we prepare, but we've got to go get it." Two weeks ago, Memphis got torched for more than 300 passing yards against UConn. Last week, they were gashed on the ground, but turnovers saved them against Navy. Houston’s not a team that has been plagued with turnovers repeatedly this season, and they’re in revenge for a four point loss at Memphis last year. Look for the Cougs to get that revenge tonight! Take Houston. |
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10-14-17 | New Mexico +2 v. Fresno State | Top | 0-38 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 57 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take New Mexico (#215) The betting markets have no idea how to price Fresno State right now, offering savvy bettors a prime opportunity to cash in on Saturday Night! Fresno presents quite the conundrum for ‘power rating’ based bettors – the wiseguys. The Fresno program fell hard and fast once Derek Carr graduated and moved on to the Oakland Raiders. 11-2 in 2013 with Carr, the Bulldogs went 6-8 in 2014, 3-9 in 2015 and 1-11 last year. The talent level and depth were way down – waaaaaaay down – from where it had been just a few years earlier. Enter Jeff Tedford. The former Cal head coach has a ‘QB guru’ reputation, and the state of the program right now is significantly better than it was last year at this time. And, after ugly ‘step-up’ losses to Alabama and Washington, the Bulldogs responded with back-2-back double digit wins, beating Nevada and San Jose State by double digit margins. But before we get too carried away with the Bulldogs improvement, let’s not forget how far this program had fallen – all the way to the bottom of a ‘not that good’ Mountain West Conference. Nor should we forget who Fresno has beaten this season – the two worst teams in the Mountain West and FCS Incarnate Word. Clearly, the markets are struggling to price this squad correctly, as evidenced by the fact that Fresno is chalk on Saturday Night against a team they should be underdogs against! Fresno’s offense is ‘serviceable’, not explosive. QB Marcus McMaryion doesn’t have a big arm, and his top two receivers – KeeSean Johnson and Da’Mari Scott – average only about 11 yards per reception between them. The team has a grand total of one rushing attempt for longer than 19 yards all season. Fresno is certainly capable of beating the Mountain West bottom feeders this year, but New Mexico is a legitimate step-up for this squad, and the Lobos unique style is primed to give Fresno trouble. When Bob Davie arrived in Albuquerque, he installed a fairly unique option style offense. Now, six years into the system, the Lobos are running it extremely well. In their last game, facing an Air Force team that sees the option every day in practice, the Lobos rolled for 56 points while averaging better than 10 yards per SNAP. Why? Because Davie runs an option with speed on the perimeter—one missed assignment or one bad tackle and someone is off to the races. Lobos QB Lamar Jordan is a playmaker, averaging more than ten yards per pass attempt. SEVEN different backs have a carry of 25 yards or longer. WR’s Chris Davis and Jay Griffin along with TE Delane Hart-Johnson all have big play ability as well. This is a ‘quick strike TD’ team, the type of squad that can suck the life out of an opposing stadium in a hurry with a big play or two. And they’ve certainly shown the ability to win games away from home. New Mexico’s seniors have won in SU fashion on the highway at New Mexico State, UTSA, UNLV, Wyoming, Boise, Hawaii, Utah State and Tulsa. Fresno is not primed to slow down New Mexico’s option. These teams haven’t met since 2014. Tedford didn’t see options at Cal, or in more recent stints with the Tampa Bay Bucs and in the CFL. Defensive coordinator Orlondo Steinauer came over from the CFL, another guy who is not familiar with or adept at shutting down the option. Tedford cleaned house when he got here – there’s not a single coach on the staff who was here last year, leaving the Bulldogs defense unlikely to get many stops in this one. Wrong team favored here. Big Ticket: Take New Mexico. |
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10-14-17 | Purdue v. Wisconsin OVER 50 | 9-17 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 31 m | Show | |
Take Purdue – Wisconsin OVER (#113-114) My clients and I cashed a winner supporting Wisconsin as road chalk against Nebraska last week. This week, however, my attention has turned towards the total; a number that is a good notch or two too low. So, let me start this write-up with an excerpt from last week’s write-up, explaining why the Badgers offense remains an underrated unit at this stage of the campaign, despite another 38 point outburst last week. Numbers have been adjusted slightly to reflect current realities: “The Badgers have dominated every foe they’ve faced this year. They beat Utah State 59-10, a win that looks even better now than it did at the time. Wisconsin knocked off Florida Atlantic 31-14, and followed that up with a 40-6 win on the road at BYU. Then the Badgers dominated Northwestern for three quarters but fell asleep with a 3 TD lead in the fourth. Seven of their last eight regular season wins have come by 2 TD’s or more; a team that is lighting up the scoreboard. And make no mistake about it – the 2017 Badgers are loaded with veteran talent. Returning QB starter Alex Hornibrook has completed 64% of his throws while averaging just shy of 9.5 yards per pass ATTEMPT! RB Jonathan Taylor is the latest Wisconsin back with NFL upside, averaging 7.9 yards per carry with nine TD’s.” Wisconsin has scored 31+ in every ballgame this year, while averaging more than 40 points per game, and I expect a similar offensive output this week. Paul Chryst got this job because of his offensive acumen – when he was the offensive coordinator here, the Badgers routinely averaged 40 points per game for the full season. The Badgers hung 49 on Purdue last year and I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if they push around the Boilermakers in the trenches once again this season, leading to some quick strike, big play scores as the defense starts to wear down later in the contest. But there’s ample reason to think that Purdue will be able to put their fair share of points on the scoreboard too. Jeff Brohm got this job because of HIS offensive acumen as an assistant at Louisville and head coach at Western Kentucky. And the Boilermakers have shown immediate and dramatic offensive improvement in Brohm’s first year on the job, hanging 28+ four times in five games, despite David Blough and Elijah Sindelar splitting snaps at QB. Ten different receivers have caught a pass of 20 yards or longer this year, with Brohm’s offense already giving opposing defenses trouble. Expect a handful of quick strike TD’s in this one! Take the OVER. |
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10-14-17 | Oklahoma v. Texas +9 | 29-24 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show | |
Take Texas (#182) There is no better coach in college football as an underdog than Tom Herman. Herman was the offensive coordinator at Ohio State under Urban Meyer when the Buckeyes won a national title, knocking off Wisconsin, Alabama and Oregon with their third string quarterback. At Houston, Herman’s teams pulled off outright upsets against the likes of Louisville (twice), Oklahoma and Florida State. At HOUSTON! Here in Austin, with the Longhorns, we’ve already seen Tom Herman’s squad excel in their lone try as an underdog. As +17 dogs at USC, Texas took the Trojans to overtime before losing by only three. And when you add up all the numbers, the results are legitimately impressive. In his last dozen tries as an underdog, Tom Herman’s teams are 11-1. That’s Straight Up! They’re 12-0 ATS, the lone SU loss coming in that aforementioned game earlier this year on the road at USC. That, folks, is a track record worth betting on every single time! Oklahoma, on the other hand, is NOT worth betting on every single time they’re chalk. Head coach Lincoln Riley lucked into this job after Bob Stoops surprisingly resigned over the summer. And, quite frankly, Riley has struggled – he’s no Tom Herman when it comes to motivating players or ‘X’s and O’s’. This defense just got shredded by the likes of Baylor and Iowa State (with a third string QB), allowing 79 combined points while forcing only one turnover. This is not a good sign moving forward for a ‘D’ that frankly wasn’t very good last year. Oklahoma’s offense is explosive, but the Iowa State coaching staff just gave every other coaching staff in the Big 12 a blueprint on how to beat them. The Cyclones rushed only three while dropping eight back into coverage, frustrating Baker Mayfield repeatedly. Don’t be shocked if the Longhorns take a page from that playbook this week in a game that has all the makings of a tight, competitive contest. Take Texas. |
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10-14-17 | Virginia -3.5 v. North Carolina | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 27 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Virginia (#133) North Carolina is as strong a ‘bet-against’ team as you can find in college football this year. It was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Tar Heels anyway after they sent their QB Mitch Trubisky to the NFL after his junior season, along with the likes of Elijah Hood and Ryan Switzer – impact offensive playmakers. A home loss to Cal in Week 1 showed that very clearly. And that was BEFORE the injury bug really started to strike. 9 guys who have started a game for the Tar Heels this year are now out for the season, and that doesn’t include a whole host of shorter term injuries and another whole host of guys who got hurt in camp, before the season even started. With a redshirt frosh QB throwing to a receiving corps that has lost their top four guys to injury, playing behind an ineffective offensive line and without any semblance of a running game to help them, the Tar Heels offense is stuck in the mud; producing only 34 points in their last three ballgames. North Carolina’s defense is every bit as injury riddled, if not more. And unlike the offense, that defense was short on talent to begin with! The Tar Heels lost their one true leader on defense; the guy who called the plays in the huddle in Andre Smith. He’s out for the year. Senior strong safety Donnie Miles, the team’s career leader in starts, is hurt as well, as is senior DL Tyler Powell, sophomore safety DJ Ford and several others. The only team that North Carolina has been able to stop all year was Old Dominion… While the Tar Heels are collapsing, the Cavaliers are in a great spot in Bronco Mendenhall’s second season on the job. They’re coming off impressive back-2-back wins, beating Boise on the blue turf in Boise, then knocking off the same Duke team that beat North Carolina by double digits. Senior QB Kurt Benkert has been brilliant since a bad game against Indiana back in Week 2, throwing for 900 yards and 9 TD’s in his last three ballgames. And the vastly improved Cavs defense has held four of their five foes this year to 23 points or less, more than capable of getting a late stop should we need one to preserve the victory. Two teams headed in opposite directions here! Take Virginia. |
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10-07-17 | Wisconsin -10.5 v. Nebraska | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 32 h 55 m | Show | |
Take Wisconsin (#403) The Badgers have dominated every foe they’ve faced this year. They beat Utah State 59-10, a win that looks even better now than it did at the time. Wisconsin knocked off Florida Atlantic 31-14, and followed that up with a 40-6 win on the road at BYU. Last week, the Badgers dominated Northwestern for three quarters but fell asleep with a 3 TD lead in the fourth quarter, allowing the Wildcats to make a late spread covering run. Lesson learned for Paul Chryst’s squad – I’m not expecting the Badgers to fall asleep with a big lead again this week. That being said, I DO expect the Badgers to build another big lead. Seven of their last eight regular season wins have come by 2 TD’s or more, and the Badgers are 6-1 ATS as road chalk in the Paul Chryst era. And make no mistake about it – the 2017 Badgers are loaded with veteran talent. Prior to the fourth quarter last week, this defense had held all four opponents to 14 points or less. Returning QB starter Alex Hornibrook has completed 67% of his throws while averaging just shy of ten yards per pass ATTEMPT! RB Jonathan Taylor is the latest Wisconsin back with NFL upside, averaging 7.2 yards per carry with seven TD’s. After facing the Big 10’s two weakest offenses (Rutgers and Illinois) in the last two weeks, the Cornhuskers defense is primed to fare quite so well as they step up in class. Let’s not forget how bad this defense looked against the likes of Oregon and Arkansas State – two decent offenses -- earlier in the season. No surprise here if Wisconsin puts 5 TD’s or more on the scoreboard Saturday Night. Nebraska’s offense is NOT primed to trade points with anyone this year, not with Tulane transfer Tanner Lee at quarterback. Lee has completed under 55% of his throws, averaging just 6.7 yards per pass attempt. Even worse, he leads all of college football with nine interceptions already. The Huskers aren’t recruiting top line skill position talent in the Mike Riley era, not an offense loaded with playmakers. So when the Badgers take a lead here, the Huskers will be hard pressed to play from behind, the far more likely of these two squads to make a handful of ugly, game changing mistakes. There’s a class difference between these two programs these days, a difference that’s not fully reflected in this pointspread. Take Wisconsin. |
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10-07-17 | Michigan State v. Michigan OVER 40 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 26 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Michigan – Michigan State OVER (#349-350) The first two matchups between Jim Harbaugh and Mark Dantonio have flown OVER the total with room to spare, with the losing team getting to 23 points in both meetings. Like this game, those contests were totaled in the 40’s. Michigan’s defense is strong, but it’s not as dominant as the D that allowed just 14 points per game last year and 16 points per game in 2015 – not with only one starter back on that side of the football. Michigan State has a solid defense, but not elite; a long, long way down from the vintage Dantonio defenses from 2012 and 2013, both of which allowed 16 points per game or less. Sparty allowed 27 points per game last year and the only strong offense they’ve faced this year – Notre Dame – hung 38 on them. Then there’s the Wolverines QB change, with John O’Korn taking over for the injured Wilton Speight as the starter. Speight is a dink and dunker, generally settling for the high percentage throw. O’Korn takes shots downfield, regularly. He’ll throw more interceptions than Speight, but he’ll also give his playmakers a chance to get the ball in space more than Speight does. Compared to Speight, O’Korn is a dead nuts Over quarterback! O’Korn was brilliant in relief of Speight on the road at Purdue, and he’s had the full bye week to get his timing down with the other offensive starters. No shock here if the Wolverines approach or exceed this total all by themselves against a Spartans defense that flat out isn’t as talented as they were a few years back, playing in their first road game of the season. These quotes tell the story of a team very comfortable with the change at quarterback. Coach Harbaugh: "John's done a fantastic job, I think, ever since he got here. In every role he's been in, he's acquitted himself very well. Including coming off the bench leading our team to a victory. I think that speaks volumes." Michigan Senior Left Tackle Mason Cole: "Things are fine. With John moving into quarterback, it's effortless. We knew the talent John had and we knew he'd get the job done if he had to go in. And he has." The Spartans offense reeks of an Over in this matchup as well. Michigan State can’t run the football; not a dominant, physical team in the trenches this season. That leaves Sparty one choice here – they’ve got to throw the football, exactly what Over bettors covet. QB Brian Lewerke has been rock solid in early season play with an 8-2 TD-INT ratio and nearly 1000 passing yards. The markets have given us one of the lowest totals on the college football betting board to work with here, and the change from Speight to O’Korn completely changes the dynamics and the expected gameflow. Flat out – this is a mispriced total, worthy of a ‘step-up’ wager. Big Ticket: Take the OVER. |
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10-07-17 | SMU +7 v. Houston | 22-35 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 51 m | Show | |
Take SMU (#399) When Chad Morris got the SMU job, I expected success, much like June Jones had success here (for a while) before Morris arrived. Dabo Swinney is getting all the love, but Morris was every bit the architect of that Clemson ascendency over the past half-decade as Swinney was; the guy who designed the offense, called the plays and recruited the likes of Tajh Boyd and Deshaun Watson. He’s a VERY bright offensive football coach. SMU was a disaster when he arrived – June Jones did not leave the cupboard full. The Mustangs went just 2-10 in his first year on the job. Last year, SMU showed signs; improving by three wins while covering the pointspread at a 67% clip for the season. This year, SMU has clearly taken the next step in their progression as evidenced by their perfect 5-0 ATS mark, including a surprisingly competitive game on the road at TCU. It’s surely worth noting how they hung 36 points on that Horned Frogs defense – big plays galore, as five different receivers caught a pass of 20+ yards. SMU is more than capable of doing the same thing here against a Cougars squad that hasn’t regained their mojo following the departures of all-everything QB Greg Ward and head coach Tom Herman. Mustangs QB Ben Hicks has a 14-3 TD-INT ratio. Their top three backs combine for well over 5.5 yards per carry. And with Trey Quinn, James Proche and Courtland Sutton catching passes downfield; we can expect a handful of big play TD’s from the Mustangs in this one. Let’s not forget how SMU hung 38 on this team in an outright upset victory last year -- one big play after the next. Houston’s offense has no such explosiveness. The Cougs have been held to 24 points or less against every opponent not named ‘Rice’ this season; unable to sustain long TD drives or generate many big play, quick strike TD’s. First year, first time head coach Major Applewhite hired the youngest offensive coordinator in college football, and that lack of experience is showing. The Cougs have done the QB shuffle, benching Kyle Allen for Kyle Postma. The running game has been sluggish; the passing game has lacked a downfield element, with their top two WR’s averaging just 12.1 and 9.4 yards per reception. It’s surely worth noting that Houston’s best defensive player -- disruptive tackle Ed Oliver -- is dealing with a knee injury, very questionable for Saturday. And it’s also worth noting that SMU covered the spread by 44 points when these teams met last year. I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if they win this game in outright fashion again! Take SMU. |
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10-07-17 | West Virginia v. TCU OVER 66 | 24-31 | Loss | -120 | 27 h 17 m | Show | |
Take West Virginia – TCU OVER (#387-388) West Virginia is not likely to stop TCU’s offense very often. The Mountaineers have shown real defensive vulnerability in early season play, allowing a whopping 5.8 yards per carry so far this season, despite the fact that they’ve played Kansas, Delaware State and East Carolina in their last three ballgames. The Kansas game is particularly troubling, as the hapless Jayhawks went for 34 points and 567 yards vs. Dana Holgorsen’s stop unit, with 397 rushing yards in that contest. The Horned Frogs offense is no joke. TCU has hung 44+ in all three games not against an SEC defense. Senior QB Kenny Hill – a guy with enough talent to earn starts at Texas A&M when he was a freshman – has shown dramatic improvement from last year. His completion percentage is up from 61% to 73%; his yards per pass up from 7.3 last year to 8.2 this season. TCU’s veteran offensive line is blowing holes open for their running backs Darius Anderson and Kyle Hicks (back from injury this week). This is a dynamic, balanced attack; the best offense that the Mountaineers have seen all season. And TCU isn’t likely to step off the gas pedal in this one, not in a legitimate ‘revenge’ game for an ugly 24 point loss in Morgantown last October. But West Virginia isn’t going to go down quietly! The Mountaineers, like TCU, are coming off a bye, and Holgorsen’s offensive track record with extra time to prepare is nothing short of outstanding. Florida transfer Will Grier has lived up to his hype, throwing for 9.5 yards per pass attempt with 13 TD’s already! RB’s Justin Crawford and Kennedy McKoy have averaged better than seven yards per carry between them. TCU has shown vulnerability to big play passing attacks as we saw against SMU. No surprise here if both of these offenses march up and down the field in a game that has all the makings of a true touchdown-fest, flying Over the total. Take the OVER. |
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09-30-17 | San Jose State v. UNLV OVER 65 | Top | 13-41 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 10 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take UNLV – San Jose State OVER (#173-174) San Jose’s defense is as bad as it gets at the FBS level. Over the last three weeks, the Spartans have given up 56, 54 and 61 points. The defense was just on the field for more than 100 snaps against Utah State; nearly 40 minutes of possession time for the Aggies. Utah ran 85 plays against them the previous week, Texas more than 90 the week before, and both teams had the Spartans defense on the field for 35+ minutes. This will be San Jose’s sixth straight game, without a bye. They’re the only team in the COUNTRY to play each of the first six weeks of the season, including multiple games against physical, Power 5 Conference foes (I didn’t even mention USF). A defense that lacked size, speed, experience and talent coming into the season is now a true bottom tier unit. UNLV’s offensive strength is their passing game – Armani Rogers can chuck the football around and the Rebels have playmakers on the outside, most notably Devonte Boyd. Head coach Tony Sanchez has shown a penchant for going for the jugular when given the opportunity, and the Rebels have lost back-2-back heartbreakers against the Spartans in the last two seasons. I expect UNLV to take no prisoners on the offensive end this week. They could approach this total all by themselves. But UNLV’s defense is not pretty to watch; a bottom tier unit. San Jose’s new head coach, Brent Brennan, comes from the Art Briles coaching tree at Baylor – they’re playing with pace; uptempo football. That failed miserably against the likes of Utah, USF and Texas. Against a defense like UNLV’s – a major step down in class, even compared to the Utah State D they saw last week – look for the Spartans to get their fair share, helping this game fly Over the total. Big Ticket: Take the Over. |
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09-30-17 | Ole Miss +28 v. Alabama | 3-66 | Loss | -105 | 76 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Mississippi (#197) I understand that Alabama looked like the greatest team in college football history last week in their dominating 59-0 victory at Vanderbilt. I understand that if things go wrong for Ole Miss here, the Tide could have this spread covered by halftime. But this pointspread is waaaaaaay out of whack with recent series history. It’s out of whack with the Rebels overall talent level. It’s out of whack with Mississippi’s results in recent seasons, a squad with only one loss by more than four touchdowns since 2014 – last year’s season finale when Mississippi State ran it up on the Rebels at the tail end of a disastrous season. This pointspread is the definition of ‘value’ and I have little hesitation recommending a wager on Ole Miss at this number. Last year’s game was 48-43. The year before, it was 43-37. The year before that, it was 23-17. Before that, 25-0. Before that, 33-14. On the field, we haven’t seen a four TD separation at any point. While Ole Miss isn’t in great shape with Matt Luke taking over the program following the Hugh Freeze scandal, the Rebels are in a solid situational spot coming off a bye week. They’re also transitioning roles, after being favored in each of their first three games. Their loss at Cal was in a tough spot, late at night, and the Bears have certainly shown well for themselves. Yet the markets viewed that loss as a ‘crash’ for Ole Miss, which, along with Alabama’s blowout last week, is why this line is as high as it is. Which is too high! Shea Patterson was the #2 QB recruit in the country coming out of high school, and the skill position talent surrounding him is eye popping. This team can spread the field and chuck the football around – exactly the type of offense that Alabama has struggled to defend in recent seasons. We saw the likes of Colorado State come into Tuscaloosa and hang 23 points on the Tide, gaining close to 400 yards of offense in the process. ‘Bama is already 0-2 ATS in this spread range at home; an emerging streak worth riding here. Take Ole Miss. |
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09-30-17 | Baylor v. Kansas State -16.5 | 20-33 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 12 m | Show | |
Take Kansas State (#140) Here’s what Bill Snyder has done off a bye week over the last five years. Last year, the Wildcats beat Florida Atlantic 63-7 as 24 point chalk, and beat Baylor 42-21 as 2.5 point underdogs. In 2015, Kansas State covered as a dog at Oklahoma State and at Baylor off a bye. In 2014, another 2-0 ATS mark, including an outright upset over Oklahoma. 2013? You guessed it, 2-0 ATS, including a 35-12 win over West Virginia as 13 point favorites. Plain and simple: that’s 10-0 ATS in ten tries off a regular season bye over the last five years. Yep, Bill Snyder is ‘bet-on’ all the way in this role, especially with the Wildcats going into the bye off a bad loss at Vandy. Snyder tends to be a good bully, and Baylor is a team that is apt for bullying! Baylor was a program that was flirting with Top 5 status in the Art Briles era; huge moneymakers for their supporters in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 as the program was ascending. Then the Briles era ended under a string of ugly allegations, a bunch of guys transferred out of town and the Bears started losing. They closed out 2016 on an 0-6 skid, and they’ve opened up 2017 by going 0-4 SU and ATS, including SU losses to Liberty and Texas San Antonio. First year head coach Matt Rhule is trying to implement a culture change, so when he talks about getting out physical-ed in the trenches by the likes of the UTSA Roadrunners, it stands out to this bettor! And when a program goes from Top 5 to bottom feeder in a very short span, the markets struggle to keep up with the decline. Last week, Baylor made a bunch of big plays and looked competitive against mighty Oklahoma. For the second straight week, the Bears caught two TD passes of 70+ yards, making a struggling offense look better than it really is. Bill Snyder is not going to get caught with his pants down defensively and give up a bunch of deep balls, and that’s Baylor’s primary way of scoring right now! QB Zack Smith was awful in his first road start, completing only 12 of 34 passes at Duke. And Baylor just lost their best receiver after Chris Pratt suffered a season ending knee injury; an impact injury – he had five TD catches and a 25.1 ypc average through their first four games. Expect it to get ugly for the still overvalued road dog here. Take Kansas State. |
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09-30-17 | Rice v. Pittsburgh -20 | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 67 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Pittsburgh (#116) Know this: Rice stinks. Any decent Power 5 Conference school that comes in with something to prove against the Owls is likely to have their way with them. David Bailiff has fought the good fight, but in his 11th year on the job, coming off a 3-9 season with another one right here on the horizon, the Owls are fodder for a team like Pitt on Saturday – slower, smaller and more concerned about their home game against Army next week then they are about this trip to Pittsburgh. The only game this year in which the Owls have scored more than seven points came against UTEP; a squad that just might be the single worst team out of 130 FBS squads. Bailiff doesn’t sound like he’s reeking with confidence following Rice’s latest loss, at home against Florida International: “We had execution errors up front. We had execution errors with the running backs; and receivers who were supposed to run a route 10 but instead ran it 12 yards. Last week everybody took turns making a mistake. This play it might be the center, the next it was the tackle, the next play it was a route. It can’t be jazz; everybody has to be in symphony.” Pitt has suffered three straight losses, but there’s no shame in any of them. Penn State and Oklahoma State are both legit Top 10 squads and Georgia Tech is a win or two away from being in the Top 25 themselves. But the Panthers aren’t focused on how good their opponents were. They’re focused on bringing their ‘A’ game here, in a major ‘step down in class’ game. Here’s a great quote Junior Offensive Tackle Brian O’Neill: “I haven't seen the GPS numbers of the monitors (that measure players' activity levels), but we were going in practice. There's definitely a fire lit in all of us. It's unfortunate it took a couple games to figure that out, but I think we're heading in the right direction, had a fresh start, clean slate (Tuesday) and really got after it.” More O’Neill, after watching tape of Pitt from last year: “We had a little bit more of an attitude then, a nasty streak. We were a little hungrier. Just something that jumps out on tape. Obviously, X's and O's are a little different, but you want to play with a little edge. Not that we lost it, but we focused on it a little more. Who cares if we had success before? You have to take it right now.” Watch for the Panthers to take some shots downfield this week, whether it’s Max Browne or Ben DiNucci at QB, and watch for them to bully Rice at the line of scrimmage. Expect a blowout. Take Pitt |
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09-28-17 | Texas v. Iowa State +6.5 | 17-7 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 33 m | Show | |
Take Iowa State (#104) Texas isn’t ready to lay a number like this on the highway, and Iowa State is coming to play. The Longhorns are dealing with injury issues along their offensive front, with a trio of linemen and a pair of tight ends not expected to play here. Head coach Tom Herman, talking about the impact of the injured upperclassmen: “We’ve got to figure out ways to do things that they’re able to do and not ask them to do too much because they’re not Connor Williams and they’re not Andrew Beck, not right now.” As a result of the injury barrage, the Longhorns are expected to start six freshmen or sophomores – not a ‘let’s lay a TD with ‘em on the road at night in Ames’ type of squad. And oh, by the way, Herman hasn’t even settled on a QB yet, with Shane Buechele and Sam Ehlinger both in the mix. Iowa State was a ‘hard luck’ team in Matt Campbell’s first season on the job, losing four games by a TD or less. They showed us this year that they might be a hard luck team again, blowing a late lead to Iowa and losing by a FG in OT. A hard luck loss should be fine in this pointspread range –but the quotes coming out of Ames after three straight games where the offense scored 40+ indicate that the Cyclones seem to think they can win. QB Jacob Park: “We’ve got some good leaders on the line, and one of the best (offensive) line coaches in the country. I really proud of those guys — and I’m happy to have them in front of me.” Coach Campbell, talking about showcasing his program on ESPN: “The country gets to see what we all know. The country gets an inward look at what Iowa State is about.” Iowa State got healthier on the bye week. Star safety Kamari Cotton-Moya should be back from an elbow injury. Starting cornerback D’Andre Payne has returned to practice following a hamstring injury. And and defensive tackle Jamahl Johnson could suit up as well. Campbell on Johnson: “He’s a guy we’re really counting on and was playing at a really high rate for us.” And it’s surely worth noting that the Longhorns don’t have a road win by more than a single score on their resume since 2014. You might want to take a taste of the moneyline here….. Take Iowa State. |
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09-23-17 | Washington v. Colorado +11.5 | 37-10 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 59 m | Show | |
Take Colorado (#354) Mike McIntyre has been a pretty darn good pointspread proposition as the Colorado Buffaloes head coach. He’s 6-3 ATS as a home dog since 2014 and 11-5 ATS in all roles in Boulder; consistently offering value for Buffs backers at the betting window. In contrast, Chris Peterson’s team has been hyped like crazy in Vegas. Since their 4-1 ATS start to the season in 2016, Washington has been a consistent money LOSER, unable to cover inflated margins; just 3-7 ATS against FBS competition. Washington has been a big favorite against FBS competition twice this season – Rutgers and Fresno – failing to cover the spread in either contest. The Huskies haven’t stepped up in class yet this season, 4 TD+ favorites in every game thusfar. The last time we saw them step up in class, they got blown out in the BCS Semi-Finals last January. QB Jake Browning puts up HUGE numbers against weak competition. Against the only four quality defenses he faced last year – Bama, Stanford, Colorado and USC – Jake Browning completed less than half of his passes while averaging less than 200 passing yards per game. I’m not saying that Washington isn’t a good team. I am saying that Washington is an over-rated commodity in the betting markets; not a team that I trust to win by big margins against quality foes on the highway. The Buffs have proven quite adept at stepping up in class in the McIntyre era. Last year, they covered at Michigan, pulled outright upsets against Oregon and Stanford and hung within four at USC. They might be every bit as good this year. Colorado is loaded with skill position weapons, with the deepest and most talented receiving corps in the PAC-12. RB Philip Lindsay is averaging 5.3 yards per carry running behind a loaded, experienced offensive line. And sophomore QB Steven Montez has looked rock solid; a young QB with legit ‘bet-on’ potential. The Buffs are a live dog here against a Huskies team that hasn’t been tested yet, still living on their laurels from last year. Take Colorado. |
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09-23-17 | Penn State v. Iowa +13 | 21-19 | Win | 100 | 33 h 39 m | Show | |
Take Iowa (#318) Iowa pulls an upset – or comes pretty darn close -- in a game like this one almost every year. They beat Michigan outright as three TD underdogs on this field last year. In 2015, they knocked off Wisconsin as dogs, and nearly pulled the upset in a wire-2-wire spread cover as dogs against Michigan State. In 2014, the Hawkeyes beat Pitt as a dog, and lost by only two to Wisconsin at +8. In 2013, the Hawkeyes hung around against Ohio State as 19 points dogs, upset Nebraska and covered wire-2-wire as dogs against LSU. In 2012, they won outright as dogs against Michigan State and nearly upset Nebraska as two TD dogs. I could go back further – Kirk Ferentz has been there for 19 years now – but you get my point. Iowa is consistently a tough out in games like this one. The markets have officially fallen in love with Penn State, and it’s easy to understand why. The Nittany Lions have been a pointspread covering machine: 3-0 SU and ATS this season (2-0-1 for some) on the heels of their 10-0 ATS mark to close out the 2016 campaign (9-0-1 for some). When a team covers the spread for 13 consecutive games, bettors notice. Markets notice. Bookies get tired of getting burned by the same team week after week. And that’s how you end up with a pointspread like this one, completely out of whack with historical norms – the Nittany Lions were underdogs the last time they played on this field. Penn State stepped up in class on the highway a handful of times in 2015 and 2016. They lost 38-10 at Ohio State in 2015, followed by a 23-21 loss at Northwestern and a 55-16 loss to Michigan State. Last year, the Nittany Lions faced Michigan in Ann Arbor and lost 49-10. They also lost in SU fashion on the highway at Pitt, 42-39. Their road wins in 2016? Purdue, Indiana and Rutgers; all bottom feeders. In short, Penn State has absolutely no track record of winning on the road against quality competition by double digit margins. Iowa is not loaded with skill position talent, but the Hawkeyes are certainly capable of banging in the trenches with the Nittany Lions – they’re not going to get pushed around on either side of the line of scrimmage. The markets have shown little respect for Iowa all season, and last week’s sluggish effort against North Texas didn’t exactly impress bettors. And last year’s loss at Penn State – a 41-14 shellacking – also has the markets devaluing Iowa. But this pointspread range has brought the Penn State love and Iowa antipathy a good notch or two too far. There’s simply too much value on this ‘live’ home dog to ignore, especially for a contest lined in the low 50’s! Take Iowa. |
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09-23-17 | Auburn -17.5 v. Missouri | 51-14 | Win | 100 | 32 h 27 m | Show | |
Take Auburn (#373) This could be a one sentence write-up. ‘You can stick a fork in them, because Missouri is done’. It’s not even October yet, yet the Tigers have given up on their coach and their season. There’s no sugarcoating what has happened so far. Reports out of Columbia indicate a team in complete disarray. The Tigers spent all offseason practicing their offense at a breakneck pace. Now that the season has started, this ‘uptempo’ attack ranks #114 in the country; running only 61 plays per game. Why? Because their defense is so bad, the Tigers can’t even get their offense onto the field. And when Drew Lock and company get their chance to shine, the results have been ugly. Forget the opener against Missouri State; a game where Missou was a five TD favorite (they didn’t cover). In two games against ‘real’ teams – South Carolina and Purdue – Lock and the Tigers offense have been held to a grand total of 16 points. Lock completed less than half his passes in both of those contests, throwing for under 400 yards combined, despite the fact that Missouri was trailing start to finish in those games. Missouri had a legitimate chance to step up last week against a suspect Purdue squad that has been a Big 10 bottom feeder for the last decade. Instead, they were non-competitive – at home, as favorites – in a game that was over well before halftime. Missouri has already fired their defensive coordinator; arguably the worst Power 5 conference defense in the country. Their offense isn’t working, despite returning ten starters on that side of the ball. It’s pretty clear that head coach Barry Odom is in over his head; a first time head coach for the program he starred at in the 90’s. Missouri cannot be expected to play competitive football moving forward. Auburn struggled against Clemson’s elite defensive front two weeks ago; unable to move the football. Last week, against lowly Mercer, the Tigers committed five turnovers, including three inside Mercer’s 30 yard line, taking away potential scores; a clear ‘flat’ effort following their defeat against Clemson. I’m not expecting such lethargy this week for their SEC opener against a team they are primed to annihilate. Gus Malzahn isn’t known for taking his foot off the gas pedal, especially considering the Tigers offensive woes in early season play. Five of Auburn’s eight wins last year came by 24 points or more, and they’re coming into this game with a chip on their collective shoulders and something to prove. No surprise here if this spread, much like last week’s Missouri game against Purdue, is covered by halftime. Take Auburn. |
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09-23-17 | Syracuse v. LSU OVER 56 | 26-35 | Win | 100 | 32 h 3 m | Show | |
Take Syracuse – LSU OVER (#367-368) Dino Babers plays one way and one way only – fast! The Orange rank in the top ten in the country in offensive plays run per game so far this season, and they’re just getting started; now in the second year of Babers system. Returning QB starter Eric Dungey was nothing short of brilliant last week, making plays with his feet and his arm and hanging 41 points on Central Michigan before the fourth quarter even started. Obviously, there’s no comparison between Central Michigan’s defense in the CarrierDome and LSU’s defense in Baton Rouge – this is a big step up in class for the Orange. But Babers has made it clear – his squad is going to continue to push the tempo at every opportunity. And LSU’s defense has one major weakness this week; a weakness that isn’t getting noticed in the betting marketplace……yet. By the end of last Saturday’s beatdown by Mississippi State, LSU’s defensive line was running on fumes. With injuries and suspensions, Defensive Coordinator Dave Aranda doesn’t have much to work with this week. Ed Alexander won’t play. Neither will Frank Herron or Andre Anthony. Neil Farrell, a frosh forced into the starting lineup, will miss the first half after getting called for targeting last week. Defensive end Rashard Lawrence is back at practice, but he’s only expected to see ‘some snaps’ this week. Edge rusher Sci Martni has yet to dress for a game this season. And I would be remiss if I failed to mention the injury that senior safety Ed Paris suffered in practice this week – he’ll be replaced by a true frosh in the starting lineup. This is NOT a defensive line poised to control the line of scrimmage, bad news against an Orange offense poised to play with pace all night long. Last season, LSU offensive coordinator Matt Canada was at Pittsburgh. Pitt faced Syracuse in November in arguably the wildest game of the year. The Panthers won 76-61 behind 393 rushing yards, and their nine pass completions netted a whopping 251 yards as the Orange sold out to stop the run. Canada spent the offseason talking about ‘opening up’ the LSU offense, but we’ve seen no evidence of that thusfar – hence the low total here. But this is the ideal game for Canada to put his uptempo, big play concepts into play, with Florida, Auburn, Ole Miss and Alabama looming on their schedule. If they do, LSU has the potential to approach or exceed this total all by themselves. Even if they don’t and just run the ball up the gut 50 times, the Orange defense can’t handle this level of speed and talent. And don’t worry one bit about Tigers RB Derrius Guice sitting out this week. His backups, Darrel Williams and Nick Brossette, are both enjoying a higher yards per carry average than Guice so far this season, a team with ample running back depth. Take the Over. |
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09-23-17 | Duke v. North Carolina +2.5 | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 49 m | Show | |
Big Ticket: Take North Carolina (#312) There seems to be a fair bit of anti-Tar Heels vitriol in this pointspread, because, quite frankly, Duke has no business as road favorites in this ballgame. Based on the early market moves, I’m not convinced the Blue Devils will be favored at all by kickoff – this is one that you want to bet sooner, rather than later. I understand that Larry Fedora’s squad looked very rough for the first few weeks of the campaign, and there’s no surprise why. The Tar Heels sent their QB to the first round of the NFL draft, lost their top four running backs to graduation and sent WR Ryan Switzer to the NFL in the fourth round. That’s a LOT of talent for a program like North Carolina to replace in one offseason. No surprise, then, that the Tar Heels couldn’t trade points with Cal and Louisville in their first two games of the season. But Larry Fedora is a bright offensive mind, and there’s no question that the Tar Heels found some offensive mojo last week, on the road at Old Dominion, hanging 53 on the Monarchs. Frosh Chazz Surratt, a Top 20 QB recruit coming out of high school, has taken over at quarterback, without an interception in his first 66 collegiate pass attempts. RB’s Jordan Brown and Michael Carter – also, both Top 40 recruits nationally – are both averaging nearly 5 ½ yards per carry. Seven different receivers have averaged at least two catches per game, a deep receiving corps. Their offensive line is loaded and even kicker Freeman Jones is one of the best at his positon in the country. Fedora has recruited well here – the cupboard is most assuredly not bare for the Tar Heels offense, despite their 1-2 record. Duke is not built to stop potent offenses. Lowly Baylor couldn’t move the ball against the likes of Texas –San Antonio at home two weeks ago. Last week, the Bears connected for a pair of 70+ yard touchdown catches against Duke’s defense. The only reason the Blue Devils won by 14 was due to a pick six, something we don’t see many of from the Duke defense and their relatively limited athleticism. The Tar Heels hung 66 on Duke when the Blue Devils last visited Chapel Hill, but the Blue Devils stole a one point win at home last year, rallying from two TD’s down and holding North Carolina off the scoreboard in the fourth quarter. Fedora following that loss: “Every time we would make a play, we would shoot ourselves in the foot on the next one or something would happen.” Make no mistake about it – this is absolutely a ‘circled’ game on the Tar Heels schedule this year, a major ‘step-up’ spot. Duke has more freshmen and sophomores starting on defense (five) than seniors (three). They’ve yet to face a potent offense clicking on all cylinders – Northwestern was all banged up on offense in their loss to Duke. The Blue Devils are leaving home for the first time all season, stepping up in class and laying points against an underrated foe. That’s a ‘bet-against’ trifecta for me! Big Ticket: Take North Carolina.! |
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09-22-17 | Utah v. Arizona OVER 55 | 30-24 | Loss | -108 | 35 h 5 m | Show | |
Take Utah – Arizona OVER (#307-308) If Rich Rod had his way, every Arizona game would fly Over the total. His Arizona Wildcats got an easy blowout win last week; working out their offensive kinks in a 63-16 win over UTEP; a game that cemented Brandon Dawkins as the starting QB moving forward. Dawkins threw for three touchdowns and ran for three more, flashing signs of his potential as a Top 40 QB recruit coming out of high school. After struggling offensively in their first ‘step up in defensive class’ game against Houston the previous week; ‘Zona is primed to move the football up and down the field this week, something they’ve had success doing against Kyle Whittingham’s defenses. Whittingham knows what’s coming: “They run the zone read as well as anyone in the country. They have a quarterback that is an exceptional runner. That is exactly what they look for in their quarterback, the ability to be a dual threat. We have struggled with them.” Arizona is going to push the pace at every opportunity, looking to wear the Utah defense down. The Utes haven’t been tested in that regard at all this year, facing three very weak offenses, none of whom run uptempo, in their first three ballgames. But the Utes are primed to move the football up and down the field against the Wildcats! QB Tyler Hundley is coming off a four TD effort last week, completing better than 70% of his passes for the season. And with new coordinator Troy Taylor throwing the football more than his predecessor, the Utes have strong Over potential here in 2017. Rich Rod and Kyle Whittingham have met five times over the last five years. Those final scores? 36-23, 37-30, 42-10, 35-24 and 34-24. We’re not seeing many defensive struggles, and there’s no reason to expect a defensive struggle this time around either. Take the Over. |
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09-16-17 | Ole Miss v. California +4 | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 34 h 52 m | Show | |
Take California (#208) In many recent seasons, the Ole Miss Rebels have been competing for SEC West titles. They beat Alabama in 2014 AND 2015, while blowing out the likes of Georgia, Tennessee, Boise and Texas A&M, finishing near the top of the SEC standings both times. That was then, this is now. Ole Miss fell to 5-7 last year, missing a bowl. They were blown out as ‘more than a TD’ favorites by the likes of Vanderbilt and Mississippi State to close out the campaign, with a bowl bid on the line, not showing any resolve or chemistry as a squad. Then head coach Hugh Freeze got caught up in an embarrassing scandal, fired late in the offseason. He was replaced by co-offensive coordinator and Rebels alumnus Matt Luke (a big reason why Luke got the interim job over other potential candidates). What have we seen in the first two weeks of the Matt Luke era? Enough red flags to make Cal a clear choice for me on Saturday Night! Let’s start with the fact that they were outrushed at home by Tennessee Martin last week by a 219-54 margin. Yes, that’s a non- D-1 school outrushing Ole Miss by a 4:1 margin on their home field! It was a similar story against South Alabama in their opener – the Jaguars had more first downs than the Rebels, and outrushed Ole Miss 4.6 to 3.5 yards per carry. That’s a middling Sun Belt school pushing around the Ole Miss defensive front on their home field! It’s also a one dimensional offense – pass only – that is much easier for opposing coordinators to defend. Things get much tougher for the Rebels this week as they fly cross country to take on resurgent Cal in a game that won’t end until well after midnight for the Rebels player’s body clocks. Cal’s defense has had some early season struggles with big plays, but their offense has been nothing short of dynamic. Here’s the key quote: “It’s hard to find a common thread on the explosive plays. I don’t think it was, ‘Hey, they’re better than us.’ I think they are correctable issues. They’re not consistently getting beat by guys who are faster and more athletic.” Cal won eight games in 2015 and beat the likes of Texas, Utah, Oregon and UCLA last year; not the PAC-12 bottom feeder that some have them pegged as. QB Ross Bowers and WR’s Demetris Robinson – the #2 WR recruit in the country when he signed at Berkeley -- and Vic Wharton already have a nice chemistry together in their first year under Justin Wilcox. This game has ‘down to the last possession’ written all over it, making Ole Miss a clear ‘fade’ as road chalk on Saturday Night. Take Cal. |
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09-16-17 | Troy -7 v. New Mexico State | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Troy (#197) The Trojans beat New Mexico State 41-24 in 2014. They won here in Las Cruces 52-7 in 2015. They beat the Aggies 52-6 back at home last year. So what’s so different in 2017 that will allow the Aggies to hang within a TD of the Trojans? NOTHING! Sure, New Mexico State is 2-0 ATS while Troy is 0-2 ATS, but that’s why this pointspread is so short for a team that was a three TD favorite in a game they won by 46 points last year. The Trojans brought back just about everyone on offense. It starts with senior QB Brandon Silvers, who threw for 23 TD’s while completing 64% of his passes last year. Silvers has a trio of returning senior starters at wide receiver; a group with special chemistry – this team returns 98.7% of last year’s offensive production, tops in the country. It’s surely worth noting that Silvers has picked apart the slower Aggies defense in both previous starts against them, to the tune of 7 TD’s without an interception. New Mexico State is coming off a HUGE victory against their biggest rival, New Mexico, barely hanging on after blowing nearly all of a 30-5 fourth quarter lead. Following their three wins last year, the Aggies lost each of their next games by 20+ points, unable to maintain their intensity. And we’re certainly not talking about a program that gets many wins; 11-39 in five seasons under Doug Martin. The Aggies lack defensive speed, ranked among the bottom ten pass defenses in college football in each of the last two seasons. And their offense isn’t good enough to trade points with the likes of Troy, not even close. The Lobos spent all kinds of time in the offseason and through the first two weeks of the campaign working on slowing down the New Mexico option attack. It worked – they won, for the second straight season. But now they face the antithesis of that attack the following week, without extra prep time – Troy is going to spread the field and air It out, then pound the ball up the gut with their 240 pound bowling bowl of a running back. That’s particularly bad news for an Aggies defense that will be missing their best player in the secondary, senior safety Jaden Wright, an All-Conference second teamer last year. Don’t expect many stops from the Aggies defense this year either, in a game that has real ‘blowout’ potential. Take Troy. |
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09-16-17 | Notre Dame v. Boston College UNDER 51 | 49-20 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 3 m | Show | |
Take Notre Dame – Boston College UNDER (#115-116) Boston College has faced Notre Dame seven times in the last decade. Here are the final scores from those games, starting with last year’s matchup: 19-16. 21-6. 16-14. 31-13. 20-16. 17-0. And 27-14. You’re not seeing any shootouts, nary a one. The Under has cashed in each and every one of those meetings. And there’s absolutely no reason to expect anything different on Saturday. BC’s offense is broken. Steve Addazio’s squad averaged only 17 points per game in 2015 and 20 ppg last year. In two games this season, the Eagles managed to get to 23 against a MAC school in their opener, then were held to 10 last week at home against Wake Forest. They’ve got a frosh QB in Anthony Brown, who threw three picks last week – don’t expect the Eagles to suddenly air it out on Saturday, especially considering their offensive line woes, a very banged up unit. BC does one thing well – they play defense –and that won’t change against the Irish. Notre Dame faced a ‘real’ defense at home last week and were shut down in a 20-19 loss. First year starting QB Brandon Wimbush threw 40 passes and had 16 runs/sacks. The Irish gained a grand total of 211 yards on those 56 plays, not exactly marching up and down the field. This will be the first road start for Wimbush and I’m not expecting the Irish to suddenly air it out either. Expect yet another tight, defensive struggle in a series that’s been full of them! Take the Under. |
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09-16-17 | UL-Lafayette v. Texas A&M OVER 61.5 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 23 h 24 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Texas A&M – Louisiana- Lafayette OVER (#159-160) Louisiana- Lafayette has a pretty clear track record when stepping up in class under Mark Hudspeth, now in his seventh year on the job. In 2012, they went to Oklahoma State and lost 65-24. In 2013, they went to Kansas State and lost 48-27. In 2014, a visit to Ole Miss resulted in a 56-15 defeat. In 2015, they opened at Kentucky and lost 40-33. Last year they allowed 45 at Boise and 35 at Georgia, while the offense reached double digits both times. The Rajin’ Cajun defense lacks the speed, size and overall talent to slow down high octane attacks on the road against Power 5 Conference squads. To make matters worse for La-La in this game, they’re facing a Texas A&M squad with something to prove on Saturday and a head coach on the hot seat, looking to run up scores in front of the home faithful while he has the chance. The Aggies blew a 34 point second half lead at UCLA in their opener, then looked as flat as a pancake last week against Nicholls State. This is clearly their ‘step-up’ game with their SEC opener on deck against Arkansas. Kevin Sumlin and his staff are primed to call an aggressive gameplan against the Rajin’ Cajuns because Sumlin is most assuredly worried about his defense: “Their scheme gets the ball down the field. They'll make us defend the whole field. Mark Hudspeth is aggressive when it comes to all three phases of the game. Everyone will need to be on their toes, and it will be a good challenge this weekend." Meanwhile, Hudspeth knows that his team has to trade points to be competitive in this one. Here’s his quote following La-La’s 66-42 loss at Tulsa last Saturday; a game that flew Over the total by nearly seven touchdowns: “We tried to stay with them, foot-to-foot in a track meet and for about three quarters we did. But we've got to go back to the drawing board defensively.” Going back to the drawing board defensively against this high octane offense is a recipe for trouble! Expect a wild shootout, start to finish! Big Ticket: Take the Over! |
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09-09-17 | UTSA v. Baylor -17 | 17-10 | Loss | -115 | 56 h 0 m | Show | |
Take Baylor (#352) Any college football coach will tell you that the single biggest ‘improvement’ week of the entire season is between Week 1 and Week 2 of the season. These teams don’t play preseason games, and there’s often a ‘getting the rust out’ element in Week 1. Especially when a team plays poorly in their debut, there’s all kinds of film study, so guys can learn from their mistakes. When a team loses outright as 34 point favorites, like Baylor did on opening day, two things are inevitable consequences. First, the markets will devalue a team like Baylor, with a first year head coach trying to stabilize a formerly elite program that has now lost seven consecutive regular season games. And secondly, that team gets a real wakeup call. Squads like Baylor tend to bounce back STRONG the following week, especially against lesser competition like the UTSA Roadrunners. Matt Rhule certainly expects a strong bounceback this week. “You learn more from a loss.” QB Anu Solomon was just fine in his Bears debut, a guy with 27 collegiate starts at Arizona under his belt. His receivers had the dropsies last week; not likely to be a long term problem for this talented corps of wideouts. And, perhaps most importantly, Baylor will get some much needed help for their secondary as injured starters Davion Hall and Jameson Houston – their two best defenders against the pass – are both expected to return to the lineup after missing last week’s game. So we’ve got a motivated and talented favorite playing with a real chip on their shoulders this week; a clear bet-on situation. Baylor has been dismissed in the betting markets enough to offer tremendous value in this pointspread range. And their opponent, Texas- San Antonio, lacks the type of explosive, skill position talent to put the Bears back on their heels. The last time the Roadrunners were in a situation like this one, they lost 69-14 at Oklahoma State in 2015. And the fact that UTSA’s game against Houston last week was cancelled due to Hurricane Harvey is particularly problematic – the favorite here has already worked the rust out, but the underdog hasn’t. Expect a blowout. Take Baylor. |
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09-09-17 | Auburn +6 v. Clemson | 6-14 | Loss | -115 | 55 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Auburn (#377) When Cam Newton was the QB at Auburn for a single season, the Tigers went 14-0 and won the national championship. Newton, obviously, was an elite QB talent, who brought his NFL team (Carolina) to the Super Bowl. In 2013, Auburn reached the national title game again, losing (but covering the spread in a three point loss) to Florida State with Nick Marshall as their starting QB. Marshall was no NFL prospect, but the rest of the roster was good enough to carry this team all the way through their brutal SEC slate into a championship tilt under Gus Malzahn. Since Marshall graduated, Auburn’s QB play has been nothing short of abysmal. Sean White and Jeremy Johnson were just awful, forcing Malzahn to dial his offense waaaaaaay back. That’s a big part of the reason why Auburn went just 7-6 and 8-5 in the last two years. Despite truly bottom tier QB play, the Tigers didn’t crash and burn, like South Carolina last year. No, there was enough talent on this roster to beat the likes of LSU, Ole Miss, Louisville and Texas A&M, among others, during that span. Auburn still has front line talent all over the field, particularly on the defensive side of the football where, quite literally, every single starter has an NFL upside. It’s a similar story with their skill position talent on offense – lots of guys who are going to be playing on Sundays in a year or two. The Tigers offensive line returns 106 career starts, an elite unit. Even against a team like Clemson, Auburn has the talent to match up. In fact, Auburn matched up pretty darn well with Clemson last year when they met on opening day. Auburn held Clemson to a season low in both points and yards, despite facing an elite talent like Deshaun Watson. And this year, Auburn’s got a quarterback! I know that Jarrett Stidham wasn’t flawless in his debut last week vs. Georgia Southern. But make no mistake about it – Malzahn didn’t open up the playbook last week AND Stidham got the rust out after sitting all of last year. This is the best QB they’ve had since Cam Newton and I expect that to show on Saturday Night. Clemson is most assuredly still elite. But the defending national champs went 7-1 in games decided by a TD or less last year, despite the presence of Deshaun Watson, Mike Williams, Wayne Gallman, Cordrea Tankersley, Carlos Watkins and Jordan Leggett, all of whom play for pay on Sundays now. Clemson will be hard pressed to win nearly every close game again this year, and it’s surely worth noting that despite national championship level talent, Clemson has not produced a profit as a home favorite in either of the last two seasons. Handicapping 101 says to beware of a team that looked too good against lesser competition on national TV the previous week. Clemson destroyed Kent – a true bottom feeder – and looked good doing it. I’m not convinced that new starting QB Kelly Bryant is going to have anywhere near the same level of success this week against a different class of defense. Take the points here, but be sure to take at least a taste of the moneyline – Auburn is live to win this one in SU fashion. Take Auburn. |
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09-09-17 | South Carolina v. Missouri OVER 72 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -115 | 80 h 39 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Missouri – South Carolina OVER (#373-374) I’m going to keep this one short and sweet. Missouri games can’t be totaled in the low 70’s – period. The markets are still being influenced by the injury plagued back half of the season last year, when the Tigers failed to reach 30 points four times in their last five games of the campaign. That was then. This is now. Missouri had 815 total yards of offense in their opener against Missouri State, averaging an NCAA best 10.7 yards per snap. They did not push the pace in that contest, because they didn’t need to push the pace against the likes of Missouri State. The markets have reacted to Missouri not pushing the pace in the opener, because that’s what markets do, especially early in the season, when meaningful stats are hard to come by. That’s why we’re looking at a total in the low 70’s instead of one in the 80’s – where every single Missouri game needs to be totaled for 2017. Missouri improved from 13 points and 281 yards per game in 2015 to 31 points and 501 yards per game last year; a massive improvement in Barry Odom’s first year on the job. This year, the Tigers return all five starting offensive linemen from last year, QB Drew Lock who threw for 521 yards and seven TD’s last week, and a bevy of skill position talent surrounding Lock. Facing a South Carolina defense with a rebuilt front seven that allowed more than 500 yards last week, I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if Missouri hangs 40+ against the Gamecocks this week. But for all of the offensive improvements for the Tigers, their defense is still most assuredly a bottom tier unit. Against Missouri State last week – a team that finished dead last in the Missouri Valley Conference in total offense and points scored last year – Missouri allowed 43 points and 492 yards, missing tackles again and again. South Carolina retuned ten starters on offense from last year themselves, with their best offensive line in the last decade. Returning QB Jake Bentley threw for three TD’s last week against a much better defense than this one….. Last year’s meeting was on pace to be a real shootout; 21-21 following the first drive of the third quarter. But in the second half, three long drives ended with missed field goals and two more ended with interceptions in the opponent’s territory. Both offenses are well ahead of where they were last year in terms of execution and efficiency and the pace here should be frenetic! Big Ticket: Take the OVER! |
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09-09-17 | Eastern Michigan v. Rutgers -5 | 16-13 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Rutgers (#312) Rutgers was as weak as any Power 5 conference school in the country last year – including hopeless Kansas, Purdue, Virginia or Illinois. A team that had been to four bowls in the previous five seasons dropped to 2-10 in Chris Ash’s first year on the job. The record doesn’t even tell the full story. Rutgers lost games 58-0, 78-0, 49-0 and 39-0 in 2016, completely non-competitive for extended stretches of the season. A drop-off like that requires a MAJOR power ratings adjustment, and by the end of the season the Scarlet Knights were power rated in the betting markets like a Kansas or an Illinois; true bottom feeders. But this program isn’t hopeless, by any stretch of the imagination. Last year’s debacle was all about a new coach trying to install new schemes with a roster that was riddled with injuries from top to bottom. From an opening power rating standpoint, the markets adjusted Rutgers up a notch or two in the offseason, but not much more than that. And even after the Scarlet Knights were competitive in defeat as four touchdown home underdogs to Top 10 Washington, the markets still haven’t made any significant adjustment for a team that is at least two touchdowns better right now than they were last November. All the quotes coming out of New Brunswick this week have been positive, a team focused on snapping a losing streak that dates back to beating New Mexico last September….which was the last time the Scarlet Knights were favored. It’s surely worth noting that Rutgers has actually been pretty good as chalk, winning four out of five in that role over the past two seasons, despite their struggles in Big 10 play. Offensive coordinator Jerry Kill was extremely conservative last week against Washington’s playmaking defense. The Eastern Michigan defense they’ll face this week is of a slightly different caliber. And the quotes coming from the offense were very positive, especially concerning the offensive line. Senior running back Robert Martin: “The offensive line played real good. They pass blocked real good. They were just hungry. All camp our coaches were pushing them, saying we're a line of scrimmage team, it starts up front. They bought in this whole camp. They continue to get better and you saw that.” Offensive line coach AJ Blazek: “The better they get, the more confident our quarterbacks get and it makes it a lot easier to stand in there and throw it around." Rutgers hasn’t won a game since last September, and this is a legitimate step down in class for a program that is HUNGRY for victory. For Eastern Michigan, on the other hand, it’s a relatively meaningless non-conference tilt for a squad with absolutely no track record of beating Power 5 conference schools on any field. Let’s not forget what happened to the Eagles last year, following a surprisingly comfortable Week 1 home win (just like they enjoyed against Charlotte last week). Chris Creighton’s squad went to miserable Missouri (4-8 last year) and lost by 40……. Take Rutgers. |
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09-03-17 | Texas A&M v. UCLA OVER 56.5 | 44-45 | Win | 100 | 56 h 43 m | Show | |
Take UCLA – Texas A&M OVER (#211-212) We’ve got two QB’s worth betting on in this ballgame and a couple of defenses with some major question marks in the equation. Last year, Bruins QB Josh Rosen got battered by Texas A&M’s defensive front, with #1 overall draft choice Myles Garrett and his counterpart on the other side Daeshon Hall (3rd round pick for Carolina) harassing him to the tune of five sacks and three interceptions. UCLA kept settling for short field goals, unable to reach the end zone until the fourth quarter. But when all was said and done, the two teams combined for 55 points, more than 50 first downs and more than 900 yards of total offense. This year, the two offenses are a good notch or two better than last years. Rosen was hurt last year, eventually sitting out the back half of the season. Now he’s fully healthy and loaded with skill position weapons surrounding him – Jim Mora has recruited well in LA. Rosen has #1 overall draft choice upside, and UCLA’s statistical profile from last year gives plenty of weight to the Bruins late season failures without him, held to 14 points or less in three of their last four games. And from all indications, Rosen is looking quite comfortable running new coordinator Jedd Fisch’s offense 9at Michigan L2 years). Meanwhile, for the Aggies, Garrett and Hall have departed, leaving that formerly elite pass rush down a good notch or two (or three) heading into 2017. Kevin Sumlin got this job because of his remarkable success creating and running the Houston Cougars offense, an offense that averaged a truly remarkable 49 points and 599 yards per game in his final year on the job. And the Aggies have averaged at least 35 points per game in four of Sumlin’s five years on the job here in College Station. Redshirt frosh QB Nick Starkel beat out some quality competition to win the starting job. Sumlin’s had success with redshirt frosh QB’s before (some kid named Johnny Manziel stands out in that regard). Starkel has a solid OL to work behind and plenty of skill position talent as well, most notably WR/ kick returner extraordinaire Christian Kirk. Expect no shortage of big plays in this game, a shootout primed to fly Over the total. Take the Over. |
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09-02-17 | Troy v. Boise State OVER 63 | 13-24 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 59 m | Show | |
Take Boise – Troy OVER (#207-208) For the better part of a decade, Boise State had a truly elite home field advantage on the blue turf. All that has changed since Chris Peterson left town for Washington; leaving Bryan Harsin in charge of the program. Harsin has guided the Broncos to a 2-10 ATS mark as home chalk over the past two seasons; a pointspread disaster area. Boise’s recent ATS failures are not because the offense has fallen off, averaging 39 points per game in 2015 and 34 ppg last year. But the Broncos defense has declined fairly dramatically in recent years. The Broncos allowed 4.3 yards per carry last season, their worst in the last decade (and I didn’t go back and look any futher). And the defense allowed opposing QB’s to complete more than 60% of their passes against them in 2016, while notching only 29 sacks. Only once during this past decade did Boise have fewer sacks or allow opposing QB’s to complete a higher percentage of passes than they did last year. They’ll start three true sophomores in the secondary on Saturday; all first time starters. All of which is problematic for Boise State’s defense in their opener against Troy. The Broncos defense doesn’t look any better this year than it did last year – Harsin simply isn’t bringing in the same level of recruits that Peterson did during his tenure in Boise. And that’s bad news against Troy senior QB Brandon Silvers, who threw for 23 TD’s while completing 64% of his passes last year. Silvers has a trio of returning senior starters at wide receiver; a group with special chemistry – this team returns 98.7% of last year’s offensive production, tops in the country. This team is more than capable of trading touchdowns for extended stretches of this ballgame. But Troy’s defense is even weaker than Boise’s. The Trojans graduated five of their top seven tacklers, including a pair of solid linemen and five of their top six LB’s. That’s bad news against returning QB Brett Rypien, back for his third season as the starter for the Broncos, and the solid bevy of skill position talent surrounding him. Look for these two ‘bet-on’ QB’s to trade touchdowns throughout, sending this game Over the total with room to spare. Take the Over. |
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09-02-17 | Wyoming +11.5 v. Iowa | 3-24 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Wyoming (#155) Iowa has been burning their backers money in roles like this one for years; a team with a track record of ATS failure in Week 1 under Kirk Ferentz. The results don’t lie. My numbers show Iowa on a 2-10 ATS run as Week 1 chalk. They failed to cover against Miami-O in this role last year and lost outright to Northern Illinois in their previous try against an FBS foe. And given the limitations of the Hawkeyes offense this year, I’m not convinced in the slightest that the Hawkeyes are capable of covering double digits against Wyoming in early start action on Saturday. The Hawkeyes are not a team that is poised to build big margins and hold them. My numbers show Iowa at 10-20 ATS as home favorites over the past five seasons. They’ve been moneymakers as underdogs and moneymakers as road chalk, but asking this team wo win by double digits at Kinnick Stadium has been an exercise in futility. Don’t expect that to change Week 1, especially given the Hawkeyes weak corps of skill position talent. Make no mistake about it: Iowa is weak in the ‘skill position talent’ category; a team that lacks explosive playmakers. Sophomore QB Nathan Stanley won the job in camp and Hawkeyes new, first time offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz (Kirk’s son) has installed a run heavy offense. Expect a heavy dose of ‘ground and pound’ for the Hawkeyes in this one; not a gameplan to build big margins and hold them. The Hawkeyes also have a legitimate problem on the defensive side of the football. They lost a pair of starters in the secondary to graduation, and lost their best returnee, Brandon Snyder, to a torn ACL in the spring. His replacement, Manny Rugamba, has been suspended for the opener. Leading pass rusher Jaleel Johnson is playing for the Minnesota Vikings this year, leaving the Hawkeyes lacking the defensive playmakers to slow down Josh Allen and the explosive Wyoming passing game. Allen is likely to be a first round draft choice next year, something I don’t write very often when it comes to Wyoming quarterbacks. Iowa CB Josh Jackson knows what he’s up against: “He does things a lot of quarterbacks can’t do. On tape, you see him make plays all over the field. He has an accurate arm and a strong arm. They aren’t afraid to throw deep. He’s impressive.’’ Allen, talking about his improved decision making from last year: “There were times last season when I threw into triple coverage or threw the ball across my body when there was no need to. I’m working to make better decisions and become better that way.” Wyoming has the superior playmaking talent here, which means the backdoor is wide open…. assuming the Cowboys don’t already have the lead when the fourth quarter begins. Live dog here! Take Wyoming. |
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09-01-17 | Boston College -3.5 v. Northern Illinois | 23-20 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Boston College (#149) Steve Addazio has taken BC to bowl games in three of his four season on the job with the Eagles in large part because Boston College has been remarkably adept at winning games like this one, where they step down in class. Last year is a prime example. The Eagles showed no ability to step up in class whatsoever in 2016. This was not a particularly dynamic offense, by any stretch of the imagination, averaging just 20 points per game for the season. But when you take a closer look, inside the numbers, you’ll find that BC got clobbered by the elites, losing by a combined margin of 202-24 against the likes of Clemson, Florida State, Louisville and Virginia Tech – the four best teams they faced. BC can’t handle elite talent in the trenches, nor do they have the defensive speed to hang tough with elite skill position players. But when BC was laying points against weaker foes in 2016, they did just fine. The Eagles laid 16.5 to UMass and won by 19. They laid 34 to Wagner and won by 32. They laid 18 to Buffalo and won by 32. And they laid 8 to UConn, winning that game by 30. Taking big points with BC in 2016 was a disaster, but laying points with the Eagles was a profitable endeavor. So what’s different for 2017? Northern Illinois is weaker, for one! The Huskies have been on a downward slide in the MAC pecking order, with their win total declining from 12 to 11 to 8 to 5 in Rod Carey’s first four years on the job. Now the Huskies are tasked with replacing their top playmaker on offense, Kenny Golladay, who has turned heads throughout the preseason for the Detroit Lions, as well as their starting QB. Without a single senior on the offensive line, the Huskies will be hard pressed to hang tough with the Eagles in the trenches. And a Huskies defense that allowed more than 200 yards per game on the ground last year isn’t primed to bully the Eagles in the trenches on defense either. Look for BC to wear this team down and take control of the game by the time the fourth quarter rolls around. Take Boston College. |
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08-31-17 | UL-Monroe v. Memphis -25.5 | 29-37 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 49 m | Show | |
Take Memphis (#138) Rule #1 for Week 1 of the college football season? KISS: Keep it simple, stupid! And this game falls right into that category, clear as day. Louisiana – Monroe was a true bottom feeder in Matt Viator’s first season on the job in 2016. They did win four games – three against fellow bottom feeding Sun Belt squads, one against a 1-AA squad – but were completely non-competitive when stepping out of conference. They lost 59-17 at Oklahoma, 58-7 at Auburn and even 59-17 against New Mexico. And there’s no reason to expect anything different as the War Hawks step up in class again here, for their season opener. Coach Viator knows what’s coming for his undersized and relatively slow defense on Thursday Night: “You know looking at it is preparing for the no-huddle [offense]. We do some of it in practice. But, you're trying to coach and teach and sometimes I never really know if we're quite ready for that, to be honest. And, that concerns me." Viator has another major stumbling block here – nobody won the QB derby in camp. “Caleb Evans will start the game at quarterback Thursday night against Memphis. Garrett Smith will come in quick..." That duo did not exactly set the world on fire last year and the fact that neither guy played well enough to win the job in camp is certainly an issue moving forward. With both guys splitting reps with the first team in practice, neither guy has been able to develop the necessary chemistry with his receiving corps to even think about trading points with a team like Memphis. Make no mistake about it – Memphis is loaded with the type of skill position talent that UL Monroe can’t cover. Twice in the last three years, the Tigers have opened the season with 63 point outputs. With QB Riley Ferguson returning for his senior year, 103 career starts returning on the offensive line and a bevy of skill position weapons to work with, the Tigers have a solid shot to have this spread covered by halftime. Expect a blowout! Take Memphis. |
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08-26-17 | Rice v. Stanford OVER 51 | 7-62 | Win | 100 | 59 h 32 m | Show | |
Take Stanford – Rice OVER (#297-298) Rice doesn’t get many stops against teams like Stanford, even thousands of miles from home in Australia. The Owls certainly couldn’t stop Stanford when they faced ‘em last year, allowing a whopping 373 rushing yards in a 41-17 victory; one of eight games in which the Owls allowed 38 or more points. Rice’s defense hasn’t gotten noticeably bigger or faster in the offseason. Stanford has nine of their top ten offensive linemen back. Don’t expect many Cardinal punts in this one. When a team like Rice gets to play their opener on ESPN against a Top 15 foe, one thing is certain – they’re not going to quit. If Rice is down 42-3 heading into the fourth quarter, you’d better believe that offense is going to hit the field on their next drive looking for a touchdown; not running out the clock. Head coac David Bailiff is starting a frosh QB with some talent in Todd Glaesmann, whose brother is in the Chicago Cubs system ; a solid athlete. The Owls, too, return a loaded offensive line with 92 previous career starts. And they’ve got a couple of legit playmakers in Kylan Granson and Aaron Cephus, both healthy and primed to make something happen on opening night. Take the Over. |
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01-09-17 | Clemson v. Alabama -6.5 | 35-31 | Loss | -115 | 152 h 21 m | Show | |
Take Alabama (#152) Note the betting market response to Lane Kiffin’s departure as Alabama’s offensive coordinator this week, a seemingly obvious ‘negative’ for the Crimson Tide. But the sharpest bettors – the ones who move lines – immediately started firing in bets ON the Crimson Tide when it was announced that Steve Sarkisian would be serving as the offensive coordinator this week. Frankly, I agree with that assessment. I expect the Alabama offense to look MUCH better this week than it did against Washington; a game where QB Jalen Hurts managed only 57 passing yards while ‘Bama was penalized repeatedly for delay of game and false start penalties. Alabama’s offense can’t be worse than the performance we just saw, only the second time they’ve been held below 30 points all season. Make no mistake about it – this offense is primed to put up points in bunches against Clemson, just like they did last year when they hung 45 points on the Tigers. Don’t underestimate how much offensive talent the Crimson Tide really have! RB Damien Harris will play on Sundays. TE OJ Howard will be the first tight end taken in the draft next spring. Four of their five starting offensive linemen have first round potential. So do WR’s ArDarius Stewart and Calvin Ridley. And dual threat QB Jalen Hurts is just beginning to show flashes of his full potential. Alabama didn’t AVERAGE 40 points per game this year by accident. In my opinion, the Crimson Tide offense will be the single most undervalued unit on the field on Monday Night…although their elite special teams units also deserve some consideration. The most dominant unit on the field on Monday Night will be Alabama’s defense. Quite literally, more than half of their defensive starters could go in the first round of the NFL draft. Let me take an excerpt from my write-up supporting ‘Bama against Washington, talking about the Crimson Tide defensively. Numbers have been adjusted to reflect current realities “Alabama scored 15 touchdowns with their offense on the sidelines this year, an average of one TD per game from their defense and special teams. It was a similar story last year, averaging a non-offensive score per game. This is not an accident. Nick Saban recruits NFL caliber talent on defense, and the Crimson Tide have legitimate playmakers all over their defense and special teams, a luxury no other team has. How deep is this Alabama team? 23 different players have scored at least one touchdown; virtually unheard of in college football. Pointspreads are based on statistical models. All of those non-offensive TD’s don’t look particularly good on the stat sheet, because the offense gets no credit for the yards and points, while the defense is right back on the field again for another drive, with the potential to allow more yards and points. That’s how Alabama has been such an ATS juggernaut, despite the fact that EVERYBODY knows they’re the best team in the country. How else does the #1 team and #1 public team in the nation go10-4 ATS, with two of those four spread losses coming in games where they were laying more than five TD’s. Which is a long way of saying that Alabama is an UNDERvalued commodity, still, in the betting markets.” Clemson is coming off a truly dominant defensive effort against Ohio State, with Brent Venables designing a brilliant gameplan, holding the Buckeyes to nine first downs and zero points. That was last week! Remember, ‘Bama hung 45 on this team last year, marching up and down the field, and that came before Clemson lost seven defensive starters to the NFL draft. Yes, Clemson is coming off a shutout win. And yes, DeShaun Watson is a top notch dual threat QB who gave ‘Bama fits last year and gave just about every defense he faced fits this year. But Alabama’s defense is truly a different animal. And Clemson’s defense is not. Venables had extra time to prepare for Ohio State. In games where he didn’t have extra time to prepare, the Tigers couldn’t stop Virginia Tech, Pitt, Florida State or Louisville – the only four good offenses they faced during the regular season – allowing at least 34 points to each and every one of those foes. Clemson has spent the last year playing for and praying for a rematch with Alabama; really coveting it! And while we see the losing team of the first championship matchup winning the second time around in some of the ‘seven game series’ sports – like the Cavs over the Warriors last year or the Heat over the Spurs earlier this decade – in the single event games, I’d MUCH rather have the elite team playing with confidence against their desperate foe. Think of the Bills against the Cowboys, and expect Dabo Swinney’s squad to come up short once again. Take Alabama. |
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01-02-17 | Iowa v. Florida -3 | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 40 m | Show | |
Take Florida (#276) Not many teams in college football were as injury riddled as the Florida Gators this year, a team that incredibly had only two players (left tackle David Sharpe and cornerback Quincy Wilson) officially start every game this season. Fellow cornerback Jalen Tabor has also been a fixture since serving a one-game suspension in the season opener, and safety Marcell Harris and defensive tackle Caleb Brantley have played in every game. But this team has spent most of the season shuttling fresh bodies in and out of the lineup due to injuries. Florida head coach Jim McElwain, talking about the effect of all the injuries: “We actually talked a little bit about that. This is what kind of makes this team so special. Those two guys have been the constant, but it just shows how many times we’ve had to change lineups and the guys have adapted and come in and played and that’s a good thing.” To make matters even worse for the Gators, at the end of the regular season, when the injury problems were at their worst, Florida faced LSU, Florida State and Alabama over a three week span, all away from home. Based on my power ratings,that’s three Top 10 teams, as brutal a three week slate as any team in the country faced all yea. And they did it with a multitude of key injuries on both sides of the football. The ugly embarrassments at Florida State an in Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game against Alabama affected the Gators power rating significantly. So did Iowa’s late season wins over Michigan and Nebraska, both of which should have come with an asterisk attached (I’ll get to that shortly). As a result, instead of laying -7 with Florida here, we’re laying -3. And that’s too cheap for this matchup! Florida still isn’t 100% healthy, but they’ll look like a very different team on Monday compared to the non-competitive squad that got hammered in the SEC title game. Austin Appleby is back as the starting QB; Luke Del Rio is ready should Appleby falter. Safety Duke Dawson is back. Safety Nick Washington could play as could DE Bryan Cox. Only their LB corps remains an injury riddled unit here, and McElwain didn’t sound too concerned, given his depth at that position: “We'll probably be without all the linebackers, but that's alright. We'll get some other guys in there, and they'll play well.” Florida is power rated too low right now, in my opinion. Iowa is power rated too high! The Hawkeyes faced one tough test away from home all year – at Penn State. They lost that game 41-14 and it wasn’t that close – the yardage was 599-234. Then, Iowa got a huge late season power rating boost with an upset win over Michigan at home (a game the ‘not as good as they were power rated’ Wolverines gave away) and a blowout over Nebraska when the Huskers didn’t have a healthy Tommy Armstrong at quarterback. The nuances don’t get factored into the current power rating numbers, only the final scores and stats. The Big 10 has clearly proven to be an overvalued commodity in bowl season thusfar. Sure, in the lesser bowls Northwestern beat Pitt and Minnesota knocked off Washington State. But the big boys of the Big 10 – Ohio State and Michigan -- lost ATS by a combined six touchdowns over the weekend. Meanwhile, the big boys of the SEC – Alabama, LSU, Tennessee and Georgia – all won their bowl games comfortably after some early struggles from the lesser SEC schools. Cheap price to lay with the superior team! Take Florida. |
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12-31-16 | Washington v. Alabama -13.5 | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 59 m | Show | |
Take Alabama (#272) I’m not going to waste your time with a write-up talking about all the obvious stuff in this ballgame – you can get that type of info from mainstream sources. Instead, I’m going to focus on the primary reasons why Bama is primed to win this game by two TD’s or more! It starts with this. Alabama scored 14 touchdowns with their offense on the sidelines this year, an average of one TD per game from their defense and special teams. It was a similar story last year, averaging a non-offensive score per game. This is not an accident. Nick Saban recruits NFL caliber talent on defense, and the Crimson Tide have legitimate playmakers all over their defense and special teams, a luxury no other team has. How deep is this Alabama team? 23 different players have scored at least one touchdown; virtually unheard of in college football. Pointspreads are based on statistical models. All of those non-offensive TD’s don’t look particularly good on the stat sheet, because the offense gets no credit for the yards and points, while the defense is right back on the field again for another drive, with the potential to allow more yards and points. That’s how Alabama has been such an ATS juggernaut, despite the fact that EVERYBODY knows they’re the best team in the country. How else does the #1 team and #1 public team in the nation go 9-4 ATS, with two of those four spread losses coming in games where they were laying more than five TD’s. Which is a long way of saying that Alabama is an UNDERvalued commodity, still, in the betting markets. Just about every wiseguy I’ve talked to since the start of bowl season has tried to make the case for betting on Washington, saying that ‘Bama is OVER-rated due to a statistical profile that isn’t as dominant as their scoreboard results. I couldn’t disagree more! The same guys are also making the case that Chris Peterson is the better coach compared to a guy with four national title rings on his fingers…. Alabama’s propensity for scoring defensive TD’s matters in this game, because the crux of my bet is anti-Jake Browning. Washington’s QB drew some Heisman consideration, which speaks volumes about how stupid that award really is. Browning was very good against bad defenses, and there were plenty of bad defenses in the PAC-12 this year. Browning lit up Rutgers, Idaho, Portland State and Arizona. He had big days against Oregon, Oregon State, Arizona State and Cal as well, one bad defensive team after the next. Browning had a good day against Stanford’s solid defense, but Washington was playing with the lead all day, scoring on their first four drives. When he stepped up against the only other two strong defenses he faced all year – USC and Colorado – in games where the Huskies did not break out to an early lead, Jake Browning was nothing short of awful. A-W-F-U-L! Against USC, at home, Browning completed only 47% of his passes, threw multiple interceptions and was thoroughly incapable of rallying the Huskies back from behind. Against Colorado, on a day the Huskies run game was working, setting up easy looks out of play action, once again Browning was nothing short of AWFUL: 9-24 for 118 yards in a game where the Huskies gained 265 on the ground. If Browning can’t get the job done against USC’s defense at home or Colorado’s defense on a neutral site in a game where their running game was cranking, how can we expect him to move the football against Alabama’s mighty defense on a day where their running game isn’t likely to generate yardage in chunks? Washington was very good this year, but they’re not ready to hang tough with Alabama. And with the betting markets starting to fall in love with the underdog, the price is cheap to back the superior, battle tested favorite. Take the Crimson Tide |
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12-31-16 | LSU -3 v. Louisville | Top | 29-9 | Win | 100 | 43 h 60 m | Show |
Bowl GOY: Big Ticket Take LSU (#267) Louisville has the better quarterback – well, they certainly have the better QB runner. Other than that, the Cardinals don’t have a single edge in this ballgame on offense, defense, special teams or coaching. That makes the cheap price to support LSU worthy of Big Ticket status! Lamar Jackson won the Heisman because nobody else stepped up in November, when the award was up for grabs. Jackson’s highlight reel plays mostly came with his feet, a QB who gained more than 1500 rushing yards and 21 TD’s while averaging 6.6 yards per carry…and that number counts sacks! As a pocket passer, he was decent, not great, completing fewer than 58% of his passes. 11 other QB’s averaged more yards per attempt than Jackson, even though Jackson had a small handful of playmaking weapons to throw to. Jackson was not particularly good at finding his second or third reads when his first option was covered. Louisville’s skill position talent other than Jackson is decent, but not spectacular – this is no SEC roster when it comes to size and speed. This team put up HUGE numbers in September and October, largely against bottom tier defenses or bottom tier offenses who’s defenses wore down: Charlotte, Syracuse, Marshall, Wake Forest, Boston College, etc. And Louisville got the one big win – way back in September, on their home field – against Florida State in blowout fashion, a win that still hangs over their collective heads – they’ve been largely overvalued ever since! Jackson did not get better as the season went along – he got worse, most notably in the ugly loss at Houston. But it’s not just Jackson. Since October 1st, Louisville has a grand total of two pointspread covers. They couldn’t hang in the trenches with SEC foe Kentucky in their season finale any more than they could handle Houston. This defense isn’t loaded with future NFL talent like LSU’s is. Louisville was a very good team this year, but they were a long way from ‘elite’ status. And the fact that they were in contention for a BCS Playoff spot deep into November before those dreams got shattered is something of a concern. Louisville played a pretty good SEC team in their bowl two years ago. They lost to Georgia 37-13 as 6.5 point underdogs. They haven’t faced an SEC team since. And this year’s LSU squad is a good notch or two better than that Georgia squad from two years ago. LSU’s defensive coordinator Dave Aranda is as good as it gets designing a defense to stop mobile quarterbacks. Let’s not forget how LSU’s D held Alabama scoreless into the fourth quarter against the Crimson Tide’s elite receiving corps and mobile QB. Give Aranda a month to prep his defense loaded with NFL prospects and we can expect strong results. LSU wasn’t thinking about the CFB Playoffs, not after their 2-2 start cost Les Miles his job. This game is a legit reward for a program that appears fully stable under Ed Orgeron now. And LSU is primed to dominate both sides of the line of scrimmage, with the superior OL and DL talent. We’re getting a cheap price to lay with the Tigers, in part, because LSU RB Leonard Fournette is sitting out this game, hoping to stay healthy for the NFL draft. The markets love Fournette, but from an on-field perspective, he’s a complete non-factor. Derrius Guice ran for 8.0 yards per carry, gaining more than 1200 yards on the ground with 14 TD’s. Against this caliber of defense, look for Guice to run wild, and LSU to win comfortably! Big Ticket: Take LSU. |
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12-30-16 | Florida State +7 v. Michigan | 33-32 | Win | 100 | 28 h 10 m | Show | |
Take Florida State (#265) Since their blowout win over Penn State in a late September home game, the Michigan Wolverines have been consistent and significant money losers. There’s a ‘Harbaugh Tax’ on the Wolverines; a very public team with a high profile coach who has attracted all kinds of attention from the betting markets. The Wolverines covered only three spreads over the last two months. They were -30 against Rutgers and won 78-0. They were -31 against Maryland and won 59-3. And they covered in defeat as a dog at the Horseshoe in Columbus. Florida State isn’t Maryland or Rutgers. And Michigan’s got to win this game by more than a TD to cover this pointspread – a tight loss like the one against the Buckeyes isn’t going to cut it for Wolverines supporters. Michigan’s defense is loaded. Their offense is not, a unit that was held to 13 points in the loss at Iowa, 20 the following week in Ann Arbor against Indiana and 17 in regulation against Ohio State. QB Wilson Speight is no Jim Harbaugh when it comes to NFL potential. Their top back gained only 800 rushing yards and no WR on the roster was a true gamebreaker either. The Wolverines defense loaded the stat sheet as well, with some truly impressive overall numbers against both the run and the pass. And yet, when it mattered most, in their two late season losses, that Michigan defense couldn’t get the key stops to win games. And multiple teams, including lesser foes Central Florida and Michigan State, were able to find enough holes to rush for more than 200 yards against them. Florida State could have easily quit on their coach and their season; a team with legitimate national championship dreams (and national championship caliber talent on both sides of the football). They suffered an embarrassing blowout at Louisville, and a last second home loss to North Carolina by the first Saturday of October, derailing their dreams. Another tight loss, this time to Clemson, ended any ACC title dreams by the end of October. But instead of going into a shell, Jimbo Fisher coached up his Seminoles, and FSU came on like gangbusters down the stretch, winning their last four SU (3-1 ATS). Florida State leads the nation in sacks, and their defense is every bit as talented as Michigan’s, if not more so. The Seminoles have just as much, if not more skill position talent than the Wolverines – Michigan certainly doesn’t have a back like Dalvin Cook. The Wolverines have also struggled at times vs. mobile QB’s like Deondre Francois. And Florida State is loaded in the trenches too. If you’re looking for edges that the Wolverines possess in terms of personnel, motivation or momentum, you’re not going to find any; bad news for a team that has to win by more than a TD to cover the number. Take Florida State. |
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12-30-16 | South Alabama +14 v. Air Force | 21-45 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 31 m | Show | |
Take South Alabama (#261) Beating the bowls is a numbers game as much as any other factor. You can talk about the fundamentals here all day –whether the Air Force defensive collapse down the stretch is primed to continue, whether South Alabama can stop the option with extra time to prepare, whether the Mountain West or the Sun Belt was more disappointing this year – but the reality is that SU does not equal ATS in this pointspread range. For the Falcons to cover the spread, they’ll have to extend their margin of victory, something they’ve struggled to do during an 0-5 ATS run as double digit favorites since their Week 2 win over Georgia Southern. There is one key trend that has been cashing tickets from Day 1 this bowl season – the dogs are barking. Heading into Friday, dogs are 18-7 ATS through the first 25 bowl games. More importantly, double digit underdogs are 10-1 ATS. The lone loser was a Central Michigan team that stumbled into their bowl game in the midst of a 1-4 SU run down the stretch. In the major bowl games, those early underdog trends don’t mean much – the class will show; we just haven’t seen many ‘class’ teams yet. But for the lesser bowl games like this one, those trends are surely worth noting. The power rating differentials simply haven’t played out on the field. Let me get back to my original point about numbers. Eventually, the markets catch up! Look at the very best pointspread teams in college football this year. Temple, Colorado and Colorado State were the three best ATS teams in the regular season. All three overachieved to their talent level, hence the ATS success. But when you take a couple of weeks off, all that momentum dissipates and what’s left is the original team, with their original talent, only now they’re being priced like an ATS juggernaut. No surprise, then, that Temple, Colorado State and Colorado all lost SU as favorites in their bowls. Look at the other end of the equation – the teams that never lived up to market expectations during the regular season. Over the long term, teams that cashed at a 33% clip or less during the regular season have been ATS juggernauts at bowl time. Entering bowl season, betting on those bad regular season pointspread teams was a 43-21 ATS long term proposition. So far this year, Southern Miss and Baylor, both of whom fell into the 33% or less ATS category during the regular season, both won and covered. South Alabama covered only three pointspreads all season, leaving them undervalued here in a spot for us to ride the angles that have been winning this bowl season! Take South Alabama. |
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12-30-16 | North Carolina v. Stanford -2 | 23-25 | Push | 0 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Stanford (#260) There are two fundamental mismatches here. North Carolina has the superior quarterback, by far. Mitch Trubisky has the potential to be the first QB taken in the NFL draft next spring, if he chooses to come out early. Stanford’s Keller Chryst didn’t become the full time starter until November and completed only 74 passes for 837 yards. Advantage: Tar Heels. But that’s about the only legitimate advantage that Larry Fedora’s squad has in this game. And Stanford has every bit as great of an edge on defense as North Carolina has at quarterback. The Tar Heels can’t stop the run, allowing 235 yards per game on the ground at 4.6 yards per carry. That’s a big problem against the Cardinal, led once again by their beefy offensive line. The betting markets have reacted to the decision by Heisman contending RB Christian McCaffrey to sit for this bowl game. In my mind, it’s a complete non-factor. McCaffrey’s backup, Bryce Love, averaged 7.4 yards per carry, compared to 6.3 for McCaffrey. It’s a classic case of the markets reacting to the absence of a ‘big name’ player, when that ‘big name’ player is easily replaceable. Hence the pointspread here of less than a field goal. North Carolina wasn’t just weak against the run – they were weak against the pass too, a stop unit that garnered a grand total of ONE interception all year – vs. Citadel in a 41-7 blowout over an FCS squad. This Tar Heels defense couldn’t get stops against Rutgers in their 40-21 loss against Rutgers two years ago. They couldn’t get stops in their 49-38 loss to Baylor last year, allowing a whopping 645 rushing yards in that ballgame. Facing a Cardinal team that came on like a freight train down the stretch: 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in November, expect Fedora and his team to suffer their third consecutive bowl loss. Take Stanford. |
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12-29-16 | South Florida v. South Carolina +10.5 | 46-39 | Win | 100 | 26 h 14 m | Show | |
Take South Carolina (#252) This has been a disastrous bowl season for bigger favorites, and I’m not expecting Thursday’s early start Birmingham Bowl to be the exception to that rule. The results don’t lie. There have been ten teams here in bowl season lined at -7.5 or higher; games where one team has a significantly better profile than their opponent. In those ten games lined at more than a TD, exactly ONE favorite has covered – Tulsa over Central Michigan. The likes of New Mexico, Louisiana Tech, BYU, Mississippi State and Army all won tighter than expected affairs. And the likes of Washington State, Boise, Temple and Colorado State all lost in outright fashion as big chalk. At this time of the year, it’s not about regular season stats or dominant matchups on paper. It’s about motivation and execution, two areas where I have legitimate concern about South Florida. Temple’s coach bolted for Baylor, and the Owls looked lost for extended stretches against Wake Forest. Houston’s coach bolted for Texas and the Cougars looked lost for the final three quarters of their ugly loss to San Diego State. USF’s coach Willie Taggart – the key to their remarkable turnaround from 2-10 in 2013 and 4-8 in 2014 to 8-5 last year and 10-2 this year – did the same thing at Western Kentucky, engineering a major turnaround in a short time frame. The Hilltoppers lost SU as favorites to Central Michigan in their bowl game without Taggart when he left for USF. Taggart has already left for the Oregon job. He took several key assistants with him, leaving the coaching cupboard relatively bare. Charlie Strong won’t take over the program until after this game, and many of the USF assistant who are still there now are not expected to keep their jobs, focused on sending out resumes as much as developing a gameplan. Interim head coach, co-offensive coordinator TJ Weist, will have his hands full coaxing strong execution out of the Bulls on Thursday. USF did not have a great defense this year, to put it mildly, ranked #120 in college football while allowing more than 480 yards per game. South Carolina, on the other hand, had a rock solid SEC defense in Will Muschamp’s first season on the job. Against FBS competition, only Clemson topped 28 against this stop unit all year, a strong enough D to keep the Gamecocks in the game against this caliber of opposition. Muschamp is in his first year on the job, and his frosh QB only has a half dozen starts under his belt. It’s worth noting that Jake Bentley guided the team to four of their six victories, including an outright victory over Tennessee as 14.5 point favorites. First year head coaches with first year starters at QB gain the most out of the 15 extra practice sessions between the end of the regular season and their bowl; a legitimate chance to install more of their gameplan and make improvements from what we saw during the regular season. Expect a competitive contest. Take South Carolina. |
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12-28-16 | Kansas State v. Texas A&M -3 | 33-28 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Texas A&M (#250) This handicap comes down to two simple angles. Texas A&M has playmakers – lots of them. Kansas State does not. And Texas A&M offers value at this price following a long ATS skid. Kansas State does not. In a game where the pointspread is sitting at -3, those two simple angles matter A LOT! Bill Snyder is a great underdog coach, no question. His Wildcats went 5-1 as a dog this year, and their only non-cover came in a game where starting QB Jesse Ertz got hurt. Longer term, K-State is 27-13 ATS in their last 40 tries catching points. This is not under-the-radar at all – it’s a trend the betting markets know and respect, hence the short pointspread here. But while Snyder is as crafty as it gets in the underdog role, this is a game that Kansas State probably needs to win in order to cover the pointspread. And no matter how you break it down, the Wildcats are NOT the better of these two teams. And, when opposing coaches have had extra time to scheme against Snyder, he’s crashed and burned of late, just 1-5 SU and ATS in bowls since his return to Manhattan. The Aggies have the star power here, the big play/quick strike potential. Whether it’s projected #1 overall NFL draft pick Myles Garrett and his counterpart Daeshon Hall on the defensive line, wideout and kick returner extraordinaire Christian Kirk, or his counterpart on the other side of the WR combo Josh Reynolds, Kevin Sumlin’s squad has a bevy of ‘big play’ talent that K-State just can’t match. In particular, playing in front of a very friendly crowd only an hour from home, expect that Aggies pass rush to give Jesse Ertz fits when the Wildcats need to throw. The final piece of the equation here is the pointspread. A&M was a Top 10 team earlier this season before the rigors of their SEC slate caught up with them. So did the pointspread – following a 4-0 ATS start to the campaign, the Aggies have proceeded to go 0-7-1 ATS since. Everyone that’s bet a dollar on the Aggies since the first week of October has lost their money – there’s no groundswell of betting support for this squad, to put it mildly. That gives us legitimate value to support the superior team in a cheap price range on Wednesday Night. Take the Aggies. |
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12-27-16 | Washington State -10 v. Minnesota | 12-17 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 8 m | Show | |
Take Washington State (#239) We’ve got a solid ‘bet-on’ team against a solid ‘bet-against’ one in Tuesday Night’s Holiday Bowl, setting us up to cash a winner with this double digit favorite. Let me start with the ‘bet-against’ piece of the equation. Minnesota made headlines last week, with the school administration suspending ten players and their teammates taking a stand for them, skipping practices and threatening to boycott the game. The players eventually caved; unable to get their suspended teammates back on the roster for the bowl, not exactly an uplifting result. Minnesota would have had a hard time against Mike Leach’s playbook if they had all hands on deck. It’s not like the Gophers faced many ‘Air Raid’ offenses in the Big 10 this year. In fact, Wassou is a difficult simulation for the Gophers D to prepare for in practice – Minnesota has neither the scout team QB nor the speed at wideout to effectively simulate what Washington State is going to do. And when you factor in the absence of suspended contributors Antoine Winfield JR, KiAnte Hardin and Antonio Shenault in the secondary, all of a sudden the Gophers defense is in a world of hurt. And it’s not like the Gophers pedestrian offense is capable of trading points with any high octane attack. QB Mitch Leidner was basically healthy all year. He threw a grand total of 7 touchdown passes while completing only 56% of his throws; a senior QB who just didn’t get any better during his collegiate career and who lacks downfield weapons to throw to. Meanwhile, Washington State has many of the things I look for out of my bowl favorites; a team with a bit of a chip on their collective shoulders, searching for respect. This year’s Cougars weren’t a one trick pony, forced to outscore teams every week. Wassou had their best defense of the Leach era, and probably their best special teams too, while showing a propensity for running the football effectively as well! And when we talk about Cougs QB Luke Falk (71% completions, 37-10 TD – INT ratio) and his loaded receiving corps (ten different players caught at least one TD; Gabe Marks and Tavares Martin made big plays on a weekly basis all year), we’re talking about skill position talent that Minnesota simply can’t compete with. That weak Gophers strength of schedule catches up with them here! Take Washington State. |
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12-22-16 | Colorado State -13 v. Idaho | 50-61 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 58 m | Show | |
Take Colorado State (#219) There’s a thought process out there that seems to think Idaho is going to enjoy some sort of a home field advantage on the Blue Turf of Boise on Thursday Night. I couldn’t disagree more! Moscow, Idaho is nearly 300 miles from Boise, and it’s not an easy trip – don’t expect thousands of Vandal fans to make the journey, especially since Idaho didn’t even average 15,000 fans per game at the Kibbie Dome! Then there’s the weather factor. Idaho plays indoors. They practice indoors. With gametime temperatures expected to be in the 20’s, the advantage here goes to the team that plays outdoors, familiar with November and December weather issues in the Rocky Mountain region – Colorado State There’s an inherent disadvantage for teams that don’t go bowling very often , like Idaho; a team that’s played only one bowl this century, back in 2009. There are all kinds of distractions and logistical issues when it comes to these games, especially the early games before Christmas. Teams that go bowling every year, like Colorado State, already have their systems in place to deal with it. Teams like Idaho? Not so much. I understand this is a statement game for the Vandals, who are dropping back down to FCS in 2018. And I understand that Idaho coach Paul Petrino has his eyes on bigger prizes, looking to garner some interest with a solid performance here. But this team can’t hang tough with solid programs. They went 6-29 in Petrino’s first three years on the job. Their signature win this year came against Louisiana-Lafayette, right before the Rajin Cajuns turned their season around. In their only two ‘step-up’ games, the Vandals lost to Washington and Washington State by a combined 115-20 margin. As we saw on Monday with Tulsa’s blowout over Central Michigan, despite their poor long term track record in bowls, a motivated double digit favorite against an outmanned foe has legit ‘laugher’ potential. Not many teams in college football were hotter down the stretch than Mike Bobo’s Rams. San Diego State and New Mexico both won bowl games on Saturday. Over the final two weeks of the regular season, Colorado State beat those two teams by a combined 50 point margin. This squad struggled early, when QB Nick Stevens didn’t have his act together and got benched. But Stevens – an ALL MWC performer in 2015 – regained his starting job midseason and proceeded to throw 14 TD’s with only 1 INT over the final six games. But the bigger issue here is that Colorado State is coming to play. The Rams lost their bowl game as favorites against Nevada last year. They got annihilated by Utah the previous season. These quotes tell the story of a team primed to make a statement here: Senior WR Robert Ruiz: “For the seniors, the beginning of the season didn’t start the way we wanted it. We’re not in the most prestigious place that we wanted to be. We didn’t get to the Mountain West (championship game). But these last few games, the seniors have been really, really good at leading this team, sending out Hughes with that big win, going to San Diego State with that big win. We’ve been rolling, so we want to finish with the same type of intensity.” Junior RB Dalyn Dawkins: “It’s extremely important to make sure we finish the season strong, on a high note, and make sure we carry this winning streak on to next season. We’re looking at it as a championship game; it’s the last opportunity of the season, the last game with these seniors and we want to send them off on the right note.” Colorado State players finished their exams last week, and Coach Bobo adjusted the practice schedule to make this more like a typical game week, with intense, hard hitting practices all weekend long. Expect the Rams to be ready, leaving Idaho in a world of hurt on Thursday Night in Boise. Take Colorado State. |
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12-17-16 | Houston -3.5 v. San Diego State | 10-34 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 2 m | Show | |
Take Houston (#203) There are three key elements to this handicap. First, the Mountain West Conference stunk this year. Second, after initial concerns that the Cougars would be flat in their first game in the post-Tom Herman era, the seamless transition to Major Applewhite has made those concerns a non-factor. And third, San Diego State has no way to come back if they fall behind. Let me start with the first point. This was very much a down year for the MWC. San Diego State played in the weaker of the two divisions – their toughest competition in the West Division came from sub .500 Hawaii; a team they beat 55-0. Their signature win came back in Week 2 against Cal; a game where they were able to keep the game plan remarkably simple. Donnel Pumphrey had 29 carries for 281 yards and three touchdowns against the Bears hideous run defense. It’s surely worth noting that the Aztecs defense got picked apart for 522 passing yards and five touchdowns against a spread offense with speedy, talented wideouts – exactly what Houston brings to the table. 10 win San Diego State just isn’t that good! My biggest concerns about Houston initially were from a leadership standpoint, with Tom Herman moving on to take the Texas job. But their offensive coordinator Major Applewhite got the head coaching gig moving forward and defensive coordinator Todd Orlando will be coaching this game before joining Herman in Austin. And when we add the fact that senior QB Greg Ward has 27 career WINS under his belt; including bowl wins over the last two years, my initial leadership concerns have been mollified. Last, but not least, Houston’s defense is really good. We saw them shut down Oklahoma, holding the Sooners to a season low 23 points – they even scored more than that against Ohio State! We saw this defense shut down Louisville and Heisman winner Lamar Jackson, holding the Cardinals to their worst offensive showing of the year. San Diego State’s offense is an one dimensional as it gets – Pumphrey left, Pumphrey right, Pumphrey up the middle. Aztecs QB Christian Chapman completed 143 passes for 1866 yards for the entirety of the season – 13 games! Only one wideout had more than 261 receiving yards. Shut down the run and San Diego State can’t score, as the Aztecs found out the hard way in late season losses to Wyoming and Colorado State. Very reasonable price to lay with the superior team. Take Houston. |
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12-03-16 | San Diego State v. Wyoming +7 | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 56 h 9 m | Show | |
Take Wyoming (#330) I understand why San Diego State is the favorite here. The Aztecs have been the class of the Mountain West for the last few seasons. They won the Conference Championship Game last year, beating Air Force by three (although they didn’t cover the spread as 6 point chalk). The Aztecs have the vastly superior defensive stats. Eight of their nine wins this year have come by two TD’s or more. The lone exception was their win against PAC-12 foe Cal, when the Bears scored a backdoor TD with less than a minute to play to lose by only five points. All of that explains why the Aztecs are laying a TD in Laramie on Saturday Night. But none of it measures the unique circumstances surrounding this game. Let’s start with the weather – gametime temperatures in the teens or low 20’s. That’s not San Diego State weather; the coldest game of their lives for most of the Southern California kids. Then we have San Diego State’s current form. Two weeks ago, the Aztecs travelled right here to Laramie. They got not one, but two kickoff return touchdowns in that game. And they scored on two touchdown passes – one on the final play of the first half, one on a Hail Mary on the final play of the second half. Other than that, the offense managed very little. Wyoming had 12 more first downs and 100 more total yards while dominating the time of possession battle. San Diego State got three cheap TD’s against Wyoming two weeks ago. They still lost the game in straight up fashion. That’s a giant red flag! So is the fact that head coach Rocky Long has never, in his entire coaching career, faced the same opponent twice in the same season. And so is the fact that after getting gashed by the Cowboys, San Diego State’s defense didn’t bounce back last week – they got absolutely annihilated, allowing 63 points and 507 yards to Colorado State, at home! From all indications, the Aztecs aren’t thrilled about making this return trip to Laramie. They’re not thrilled with their bowl options either – there’s a real chance that Boise State could leapfrog them into the Las Vegas Bowl, whether they win or lose. For a conference championship game scenario, these are too many red flags to ignore! When Craig Bohl got the Wyoming job three years ago, my Mountain West sources were very clear: ‘Watch out for this guy & this team – they’re going to get better, fast! From 2-10 last year to a trip to the conference championship game on their own home field is certainly ‘Fast’. And while this team doesn’t have the pedigree of the Aztecs, they do have one heck of a home field edge in Laramie; Already this season, the Cowboys have beaten Northern Illinois (+7), Air Force (+13.5), Boise State (+14.5) and San Diego State (+9.5 two weeks ago) as underdogs on this field. With playmaking WR Tanner Gentry catching deep balls, QB Josh Allen (only 11 INT’s) avoiding mistakes and RB Brian Hill (#5 in the nation in rushing yards) pounding between the tackles, look for Wyoming to give San Diego State everything they can handle…with a decent shot at the outright upset! Take Wyoming. |
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12-02-16 | Colorado v. Washington -7.5 | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 34 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Washington (#306) There are three key factors in Washington’s favor on Friday Night. The Huskies have a speed edge – their offense has playmakers, while Colorado’s does not. Washington has the requisite big game experience away from home; Colorado does not. And Washington has something to prove on a national stage, looking to legitimize their run towards a college football playoff berth – this is a ‘knockout’ spot for the superior squad. Let me start with the playmakers. The Buffs can bang with the Huskies in the trenches, but Colorado has no answer for the likes of Myles Gaskin (he’ll be playing on Sundays). Lavon Coleman has averaged better than eight yards per carry. John Ross, Dante Pettis and Chico McClatcher have 35 TD catches between them, each guy with a 60+ yard score. QB Jake Browing averages nearly two full yards per pass attempt more than his counterpart on Colorado, Sefo Liufau. Both of Colorado’s losses this season have come against teams with offensive playmakers, Michigan and USC. No Colorado player has been to a bowl game before or anything resembling a game of this magnitude – the Buffaloes last bowl came back in 2007. They were physically challenged by Utah last week n the heels of a wild game against Washington State the previous week; a long way from being ‘fresh’ at this late stage of the campaign. Mike MacIntyre deserves serious ‘Coach of the Year’ consideration, but the biggest game he’s coached at the collegiate level was the Military Bowl against Bowling Green in his previous stint at San Jose State. Washington is fresher, coming off easy blowouts in each of the last two weeks. They’ve been winning big games -- the fifth year seniors here have gone 3-1 ATS in bowls over the last four seasons, and Chris Peterson’s resume speaks for itself when it comes to getting his teams to step up for big games at Boise State. The Huskies are ready for games like this one, with the talent level to dominate. Colorado has gone about as far as they can with the talent level on hand. I’m well aware that Colorado has been a pointspread juggernaut all year, ranked #2 in college football in ATS results. That’s why this pointspread is so cheap to support a Washington team that has nine wins this year by 24 points or more. No shock here if they get their tenth win by that type of margin on Friday Night, sending a clear message to the Playoff Committee: “We deserve to be here.” Take Washington. |
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11-26-16 | Utah +10 v. Colorado | 22-27 | Win | 100 | 31 h 55 m | Show | |
Take Utah (#193)(Abbreviated write-ups on a very busy Thanksgiving Weekend) |
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11-26-16 | Oregon -3 v. Oregon State | 24-34 | Loss | -111 | 27 h 25 m | Show | |
Take Oregon (#189)(Abbreviated write-ups on a very busy Thanksgiving Weekend) |
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11-26-16 | Kansas v. Kansas State -26 | 19-34 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 31 m | Show | |
Take Kansas State (#164)(Abbreviated write-ups on a very busy Thanksgiving Weekend) |
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11-25-16 | Texas Tech +5.5 v. Baylor | 54-35 | Win | 100 | 55 h 55 m | Show | |
Big Ticket: Take Texas Tech (#139) My clients and I cashed a Big Ticket winner betting against Baylor last week, cashing by three touchdowns. Let me start with an excerpt from that analysis. Numbers have been adjusted to reflect current realities “I could do this write-up in three words: ‘Baylor is dead’. “It’s been a long, trying season for the Bears. Obviously, the dismissal of head coach Art Briles following a sexual assault scandal involving the football team has had an enormous impact, a coach who the kids truly loved and respected. His replacement, Jim Grobe, hasn’t earned that same level of respect, not even close. And as it looks more and more as if Grobe is already a lame duck, with the Bears coaching search for next year going on as I write this, his players are already starting to tune him out. “The Bears went 6-0 to open the season thanks to a ridiculously weak schedule; favored by -17 or more in five of those six victories. Even against weaker foes, Baylor was a ‘bet-against’ team; covering only two pointspreads during that span. Then the schedule toughened and things started to get ugly. A one point loss at Texas was followed by a 40 point loss to TCU; a legit ‘no-show’ right here in Waco. It wasn’t much better at Oklahoma; a game that was 21-0 Sooners by early in the second quarter, never getting any closer. “The off-field issues are every bit as problematic as the on-field issues for the Bears. In the game against TCU, multiple players wore black bandanas with ‘CAB’ on them for ‘Coach Art Briles’. Jim Grobe came with this quote after the game: “Coach Briles recruited all these guys. I have no problems that they care about Coach Briles. I just think that if you get too caught up in making statements you play terrible, and that’s what happened. When something happens to someone in your family it doesn’t mean you stop caring about them. I don’t have an issue with that. What I really have an issue with is getting our rear ends worn out like we did Saturday. So I’d like for everybody to spend a little more time focusing on football.” It’s the right thing to say, but the team hasn’t focused on football since! With four straight losses, every goal this team had hoped to accomplish this season has been lost. Oh, and their senior quarterback, Seth Russell, suffered a season ending injury in defeat. Their #2 QB Jared Stidham quit the team following Briles departure, leaving only true frosh Zack Smith at QB. Smith’s backup is a true frosh walk-on. Grobe, talking about his QB situation: “When Jarrett was still here, we felt really good because we feel like Zach is going to be a really good quarterback. We just didn’t think we’d have to use him this early. We thought Jarrett was in line to succeed Seth. Now with Zach and Preston we have to keep both of those guys healthy, but now hopefully Zach can get through these next few games and do the job.” That’s not exactly a ‘dripping with confidence about his young QB’ type of quote! ‘We know that Baylor’s offense is in trouble. What about their defense? Does this sound like a confident quote to you, from Bears junior defensive lineman KJ Smith? “We have to be schematically sound and get our assignment done and come together as a team and try to fix the mistakes we’ve had.” I’m not looking to back squads that are trying to ‘come together as a team’ on defense in late November following four straight season crushing losses while allowing more than 500 yards and 45 points per game during that skid!” Baylor was every bit as lethargic on the field last week as they’ve been all year. When Kansas State threw a punch, Baylor had a glass chin, unable to punch back. It was the same case for Texas Tech last week, suffering a truly ugly 66-10 wipeout in Ames. But the quotes coming out of the Red Raider locker room are very different from the quotes we’re seeing from the Baylor side. Head coach Kliff Kingsbury: “(We want to) get back out there and prove what kind of team we are. This turns into our bowl game -- in AT&T Stadium, an incredible venue against a very good Baylor team. And that’s the way we’re trying to approach it.” Kingbury called the team “frustrated and embarrassed.” Junior WR Dylan Cantrell: “We realize that this is our last game, our last week of football this year. So, I hate it for the seniors, we’re a really close team. Definitely wanted to play another month with them, but we’re just going to attack this week. We know it’s the last week, the last game, and hopefully, we’ll come out with a win.” Sophomore safety Jah’Shawn Johnson: “Everyone’s all in. This is probably the closest we’ve been in the last two or three years as a team. Everyone’s playing for each other. We’re not getting the job done on Saturdays, but no one’s giving up.” No hesitation here taking the team with the positive attitude that’s still trying as underdogs against a truly ‘dead’ favorite. In this pointspread range, it’s a wager worthy of Big Ticket status! Big Ticket: Take Texas Tech. Big Ticket: Take Texas Tech. |
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11-25-16 | TCU v. Texas -2.5 | 31-9 | Loss | -116 | 75 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Texas (#128) I’ll talk about Texas in a moment, but let me start this handicap with an examination of TCU, a team that’s been every bit as disappointing as the Longhorns have this season. Gary Patterson did a remarkable job last year, coaxing 11 wins out of his injury riddled squad, including a 50-7 annihilation of these same Longhorns. That came on the heels of a 12 win season and a 48-10 smackdown of the Longhorns in 2014. That was then. This is now. The Horned Frogs are a disaster area here in late November. They’ve covered a grand total of two pointspreads all year – against an SMU team that can’t stop anybody and against a Baylor team that quit on their coach and their season. That win over Baylor is their only SU win in the last six weeks. And last week’s non-competitive home loss to Oklahoma State was their ‘circle the wagons’ game, a game where Patterson and his staff coached up his team as much as they could be coached up. They lost 31-6 as 6 point favorites. Patterson’s quote following the game is as ‘bet-against’ as it gets: “It’s been a long time since we got our butts kicked at home … As soon as you start tolerating what happened today, you need to get into a different profession. As a coach you put a lot into it. What you’ve got to realize is that you’re not going to change unless you can look at yourself in the mirror and say, ‘That didn’t work — so what’s your next answer?’” The problem, of course, is that TCU and Patterson don’t have a next answer….. Yes, this has been a very disappointing season for Texas, culminating with last week’s six turnover disaster in a loss at lowly Kansas. From all indications, Charlie Strong will be fired after the game, whether Texas clinches bowl eligibility or not. And that’s the key factor here. You can find literally DOZENS of tweet from current Longhorn players, and every one of those tweets has had the same basic message: ‘We love this guy & he’s a damn good football coach’. That matters – A LOT – in a setting like this one, where TCU’s intensity can be questioned and where Texas has the superior overall talent level. Don’t wait on this one – this line is only going up….. Take Texas. |
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11-19-16 | USC v. UCLA +13.5 | 36-14 | Loss | -102 | 34 h 23 m | Show | |
Take UCLA (#406) This is a bet about character. It’s been a rough, disappointing season for UCLA. The Bruins stumbled out of the gate with a loss to Texas A&M. They followed that up with a home loss to Stanford a few weeks later, followed by losses to Arizona State, Washington State, Utah and Colorado. Potential future #1 overall pick in the NFL draft Josh Rosen got hurt, out for the year. Sounds like a team in the midst of a miserable campaign, primed to give up -- right? WRONG! First off, all of those teams except for Arizona State are elite squads – there’s no shame in any of those losses, and UCLA’s schedule left them up against it from the start. Secondly, the Bruins have been competitive in defeat in each and every one of those games, with all six losses coming by ten points or less. Head coach Jim Mora Jr has gone out of his way to compliment his team’s character all year long: “There’s no quit in them. We’re not doing well enough, but it’s not for lack of effort on the part of our players“. The Bruins snapped their losing streak last week, finally stepping down in class for a blowout win over Oregon State. Jim Mora Jr has given out two gameballs in five years as the Bruins head coch. One of them came last week, to senior QB Mike Fafual, an effective replacement for Rosen. Mora’s quote: "He played behind Brett (Hundley), and then Josh got the job, and he has hung in there. He's everything that you want in a quarterback in terms of studying the game and it being serious to him. It's just great." It’s surely worth noting that in two home games as the starter, Fafual has gone 65-117 for 745 yards and five TD’s. While the Bruins have been stepping up In class repeatedly, the Trojans have been stepping down; beating up on the likes of Oregon, Cal and Arizona. Then last week, USC notched their biggest win in YEARS, knocking off Top 5 Washington in Seattle. Yes, Clay Helton’s squad played well, but the win was as much about Washington feeling the pressure as other factor, the Huskies worst game of the season (by far!). Now, USC has become a very attractive bet in the markets – they’re double digit chalk here, as opposed to more than a TD underdog last week. The spot is not a great one for a rivalry game, coming off that huge win at Washington with Notre Dame on deck. The Trojans have lost three times in the last four seasons vs. UCLA, including both meetings at the Rose Bowl, but they got their ‘revenge’ last year with a 19 point blowout. Now it’s UCLA’s turn for revenge, and I expect them to fight tooth and nail from start to finish against their hated rival. The Bruins haven’t lost by more than 10 points all year, and I don’t expect them to start losing games by margin this week! Take UCLA. |
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11-19-16 | Northwestern v. Minnesota OVER 45 | 12-29 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 23 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota – Northwestern OVER (#331-332) Northwestern struggled offensively for the first month of the season, going 1-3 SU while failing to score more than 24 points in any of those games, going 4-0 to the Under in the process. They woke up offensively against Iowa, hanging 38 on the Hawkeyes stout defense. Following their bye week, they hung 54 in East Lansing, going Over the total all by themselves. Head coach Pat Fitzgerald following that victory over the Spartans: "We weren't very good (before). I have zero answers other than that we didn't coach well enough and didn't play well enough, but we have stayed the course and kept grinding. Good things usually happen when you respond." Northwestern’s offense didn’t stay at that level of execution following that game, facing three consecutive quality defenses, including Ohio State and Wisconsin. But when they stepped down in defensive class last week, the offense once again moved the ball up and down the field. The Wildcats gained 605 yards and put up 45 points at Purdue; a balanced attack with a pair of 100 yard rushers at running back and a solid showing from NFL prospect sophomore QB Clayton Thorson. And there’s ample reason to believe they’ll be able to continue moving the football effectively against this mediocre Golden Gophers stop unit. Minnesota’s defense allowed bottom feeder Rutgers to hang 32 and bottom feeder Purdue to hang 31 on them in their last two home games. The Gophers aren’t a ‘sexy’ offensive team, lacking an elite level QB. But Minnesota can run the ball against just about anybody, with Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks at RB, and senior WR Drew Wolitarsky has emerged as a legit downfield weapon for QB Mitch Leidner. And while the weather on Friday is cold and snowy, field conditions should be just fine on Saturday, setting us up for a relatively high scoring affair. Take the Over. |
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11-19-16 | Florida v. LSU -14.5 | 16-10 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 1 m | Show | |
Take LSU (#420) My clients and I tried to make a bet supporting LSU over Florida back in early October, when the game was originally scheduled. I wrote it up, gave it out and had a pretty big bet in my pocket on the Tigers -3. But Hurricane Matthew roared through and the game got postponed. That being said, neither the matchups nor the fundamental outlook for either team has changed one iota since the first meeting was played. That’s why I’m starting with an excerpt from my previous write-up on this game; a write-up that I wasn’t able to use. “Ed Orgeron has been in this situation before. Orgeron took over for a fired Lane Kiffin at USC, and guided the Trojans to a 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS mark following that early season firing. The Trojans played hard for him, and they were consistently undervalued, especially early in his tenure: 5-1 ATS in his first six games. “This is a remarkably similar situation with one key change. USC in 2013, like LSU in 2016, was stockpiled with NFL caliber talent; a legit Top 10 squad. One unit has been working just fine – the defense. In the Tigers two losses – both tight competitive contests – their defense allowed a grand total of one touchdown. Coordinator Dave Aranda was retained after the coaching change, the right move to make. “Orgeron, not the school administrators, made the decision to dump Cam Cameron, who’s offense just wasn’t working in the SEC. That’s a HUGE bonus! Orgeron’s guy is Steve Ensminger, who has been an offensive coordinator at Texas A&M and at Clemson before – he’s no rookie, and from all indications, the players are VERY excited to open up the offense this week. Here’s a quote from the local beat writer “The biggest thing you see with this team I s they seem….more energized with the hiring of Ed Orgeron. Their practices are a little bit shorter, so they won’t be as tired come game time. They spend a lot more time in the film room, and from the practice we went to [on Monday], they were a little bit more loose with a lot more music. A lot of players were telling us that before, there was no music and one guy who mainly played music before practice and before games. But now, the whole team is playing music and dancing.” This is EXACTLY what LSU needed to get going – they’re having fun, and they’ve got something to prove’. Since that time, LSU has been a real moneymaker for their supporters. Orgeron is 4-1 SU and ATS since taking the job, the lone loss coming in highly competitive fashion against Alabama, the only team all year to shut down the Crimson Tide offense. Their two headed RB duo of Leonard Fournette and Derrius Guice have combined to AVERAGE nearly eight yards per CARRY over 218 rush attempts this season, while QB Danny Etling has been able to find open receivers as defenses are forced to stack the box to stop the run; hanging 38+ on every opponent not named Alabama in the Orgeron era. Florida, on the other hand, cannot be expected to move the football at all in this matchup. The Gators offense is being led by backup QB Austin Appleby; a bottom tier QB against this level of defense. Their offensive weaknesses have been on display all year, but this is their first true ‘step-up-in-class’ against an elite stop unit, bad news for a unit that couldn’t move the football against the likes of Vandy, Georgia, Arkansas or South Carolina in recent weeks, unable to reach 300 yards in any of those games. The Gators are 7-2 and in control of the SEC East for two reasons. First and foremost is their schedule, a true ‘right team at the right time’ type of slate. Secondly, they’ve been able to shut down numerous weak offenses with their solid defense. But when the Gators offense hasn’t been able to move the football against a balanced offense on the other side – that’s when Florida has struggled. We saw it very clearly early in the season, when Tennessee rallied back from a 21-0 lead; outscoring the Gators 38-7 the rest of the way. And we saw it again two weeks ago at Arkansas, when Jim McElwain’s squad was largely non-competitive – their only TD came on an interception return. There’s a recent history comparison to consider here. Florida played at Arkansas two weeks ago. LSU played at Arkansas last week. The Tigers were a net 49 points and 483 yards better than the Gators in those two matchups. No surprise here if this one gets ugly early for the outclassed and overrated road underdog. Take LSU. |
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11-19-16 | Kansas State -1 v. Baylor | Top | 42-21 | Win | 100 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Kansas State (#359) I could do this write-up in three words: ‘Baylor is dead’. It’s been a long, trying season for the Bears. Obviously, the dismissal of head coach Art Briles following a sexual assault scandal involving the football team has had an enormous impact, a coach who the kids truly loved and respected. His replacement, Jim Grobe, hasn’t earned that same level of respect, not even close. And as it looks more and more as if Grobe is already a lame duck, with the Bears coaching search for next year going on as I write this, his players are already starting to tune him out. The Bears went 6-0 to open the season thanks to a ridiculously weak schedule; favored by -17 or more in five of those six victories. Even against weaker foes, Baylor was a ‘bet-against’ team; covering only two pointspreads during that span. Then the schedule toughened and things started to get ugly. A one point loss at Texas was followed by a 40 point loss to TCU; a legit ‘no-show’ right here in Waco. It wasn’t much better last week at Oklahoma; a game that was 21-0 Sooners by early in the second quarter, never getting any closer. The off-field issues are every bit as problematic as the on-field issues for the Bears. In the game against TCU, multiple players wore black bandanas with ‘CAB’ on them for ‘Coach Art Briles’. Jim Grobe came with this quote after the game: “Coach Briles recruited all these guys. I have no problems that they care about Coach Briles. I just think that if you get too caught up in making statements you play terrible, and that’s what happened. When something happens to someone in your family it doesn’t mean you stop caring about them. I don’t have an issue with that. What I really have an issue with is getting our rear ends worn out like we did Saturday. So I’d like for everybody to spend a little more time focusing on football.” It’s the right thing to say, but the team didn’t focus on football last week either! With three straight losses, every goal this team had hoped to accomplish this season has been lost. Oh, and their senior quarterback, Seth Russell, suffered a season ending injury in defeat. Their #2 QB Jared Stidham quit the team following Briles departure, leaving only true frosh Zack Smith at QB. Smith’s backup is a true frosh walk-on. Grobe, talking about his QB situation: “When Jarrett was still here, we felt really good because we feel like Zach is going to be a really good quarterback. We just didn’t think we’d have to use him this early. We thought Jarrett was in line to succeed Seth. Now with Zach and Preston we have to keep both of those guys healthy, but now hopefully Zach can get through these next few games and do the job.” That’s not exactly a ‘dripping with confidence about his young QB’ type of quote! We know that Baylor’s offense is in trouble. What about their defense? Does this sound like a confident quote to you, from Bears junior defensive lineman KJ Smith? “There’s going to be a lot of power runs and pulling guards. They trust in running the ball, and that’s a lot different from most teams we face. We have to be schematically sound and get our assignment done and come together as a team and try to fix the mistakes we’ve had.” I’m not looking to back squads that are trying to ‘come together as a team’ on defense in late November following three straight season crushing losses while allowing an average of 596 yards and 47 points per game during that skid! Kansas State isn’t pretty or sexy or dynamic. What they are is well coached, confident in their identity and stable, three things Baylor isn’t! K State needs just a single win to clinch bowl eligibility. They’re rested and ready following a much needed bye week. With QB Jesse Ertz healthy again and RB Charles Jones averaging nearly 5.5 yards per carry, look for this veteran squad to come away with a solid road win against a tanking foe. Big Ticket: Take Kansas State. |
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11-17-16 | Arkansas State +8 v. Troy | 35-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
Take Arkansas State (#313) This is a classic ‘spot’ play, fading Troy after the Trojans reached the Top 25 for the first time in program history. First, let me make this perfectly clear—while Troy has been one of the three true ‘rags to riches’ stories this year (along with Colorado and UCF) – this team is nowhere near the Top 25 in my power ratings. There’s a reason that no Sun Belt team – EVER – has been in the Top 25 before. As a result, there’s pressure on the home favorite, pressure that they’re not used to. This is a late kickoff game due to national TV considerations and the home team isn’t used to playing at this time of night either. Defensive coordinator Vic Koenning: “It’s hard to get up at 4, 4:30 or 5 in the morning and you get an 8:30 (local) kickoff time. I’m like, ‘Ugh.’ I’m going to have to find some Red Bull or something.” Head coach Neal Brown: “These guys are up, regardless of how much I preach about resting.” Troy is coming off a barnburner of a game, scoring the winning touchdown to beat Appalachian State with just a minute to play last Saturday. Arkansas State, on the other hand, cruised to an easy blowout over New Mexico State; the fresher squad here. The Red Wolves have two significant factors in their favor. First, this team is as battle tested as it gets. They’ve won 14 straight Sun Belt games and 17 of their last 20 against Sun Belt competition on the highway; a team we can trust in hostile environments. And secondly, Arkansas State has the superior defense. The Red Wolves have generated a whopping 71 negative yardage plays already this year, including 22 sacks. With two preseason All Sun Belt defensive linemen and two more All Sun Belt linebackers, it’s no surprise that this front seven is blowing up plays behind the line of scrimmage on a regular basis. Against a team in rarefied air who needs to win by margin, this stop unit is worth betting on! Take Arkansas State. |
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11-17-16 | Louisville v. Houston +14 | 10-36 | Win | 100 | 32 h 17 m | Show | |
Take Houston (#312) The Houston Cougars have been in pointspread free fall since September. Their last spread cover came back in September, a 28 point win over UConn as 27.5 point favorites. The Cougars lost outright to Navy the following week, dooming their undefeated season and CFB Playoff aspirations. And there was a BIG hangover following that loss, with a series of lethargic performances since. All the media hype and betting market steam surrounding this team early in the season has dissipated rather quickly. Houston is 0-5 ATS in their last five games. They were lined at -15.5 or higher for four of those contests, unable to build and maintain margins. But this is a very different pointspread range for the Cougs compared to what we’ve been seeing. In their only try as an underdog this year, they beat Oklahoma by ten as 13 point underdogs. But even that result is just the tip of the iceberg. Head coach Tom Herman has been an underdog four times during his tenure in Houston, against Oklahoma, Louisville, Florida State and Navy (last year, when Navy was an 11 win team with an elite QB). The Cougars won all four of those games in SU fashion. Herman was Ohio State’s offensive coordinator before he got this job, and Iowa State’s offensive coordinator before that. Dating back to 2011 with the Cyclones, the last 15 times Herman’s teams have been underdogs, they’ve gone 15-0 ATS, notching 12 outright upsets. Now THAT is a track record worthy of support. Then we look at the quotes from this Houston team. WR Chance Allen: “This is our Super Bowl. The season hasn't gone as planned and as we thought it should. But we have this week to look forward to.” LB Steven Taylor: “It's like playing Oklahoma again. There's going to be a lot of energy. We're going to come out attacking." Herman: “There is extra anticipation and extra excitement knowing who's coming into town. There is no hiding from that. But, at the same time, it's business as usual. The way we prepare is not going to change….. We've done pretty well in big games around here the last couple of years.” I’ve got nothing bad to write about Louisville, except that all the pressure here is on Louisville; rarely a good thing for any team laying two touchdowns on the road against a capable foe. Well, that and the fact that last week’s 44-12 win over Wake Forest was the single most misleading final score of the weekend – the Cardinals trailed that game 12-10 with just over ten minutes left in the fourth quarter! And there remains a legitimate value problem to support Bobby Petrino’s squad; a team that has only covered two pointspreads since their 3-0 ATS start, unable to live up to the Lamar Jackson induced hype. Live dog here! Take Houston. |
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