For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.
CLICK A CAPPERS NAME TO SEE THEIR PREMIUM DAILY EXPERT PLAYS + PREDICTIONS!
Schedule: NFL | CFB | MLB | NBA | CBB | NHL
WANT FREE SPORTS PICKS to your inbox? | Newsletter Sign-UP!
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04-11-18 | Nets -1 v. Celtics | 97-110 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Brooklyn (#715) It might be ‘Fan Appreciation Night’ in Boston this evening, but the Celtics aren’t primed to put on much of a show for their regular season finale. Head coach Brad Stevens promised that he would give his starters ample playing time in Washington last night, and he did. It didn’t matter – the Celtics intensity wasn’t there, much like it hasn’t been there as they’ve lost four out of five heading into tonight. Coach Stevens had this to say following the Celtics loss to the Hawks on Sunday: ''If we would have played our normal rotation, we would have won that game. No doubt about it. Let young guys play in the fourth. Bench play is going to be huge for us going into the playoffs without a full roster.” Now, at the tail end of one last tough scheduling stretch – second of back-2-backs, sixth game in nine days – the Celtics are primed for a ‘No-Show’ tonight. Brooklyn is on the other end of the energy spectrum right now. They’ve won three straight for the first time all season – two of them coming on the road. Alan Crabbe, coming off a 40 point outburst against the Bulls on Monday: “Things are maybe turning that corner that we wanted to get a little early in the season, but it's better late than never." Expect the Nets to show up here. Boston? Not so much……Take the Nets. |
|||||||
04-09-18 | Thunder v. Heat +4 | 115-93 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#708) To say that the Miami Heat are coming off a ‘no-show’ game is something of an understatement. Eric Spoelstra’s squad went into Madison Square Garden on Friday Night and allowed the hapless Knicks to dominate the game; a 24 point loss as 8.5 point favorites. Miami’s lack of defensive intensity was palpable, allowing 33 assists on 45 made baskets, and no one in the locker room seemed amused after the game. Spoelstra: “I don’t want to take away from what they did. They played a great game. But the best way to say it is all across the board we were a no-show. I hardly recognized our team tonight compared to who we’ve been and how we’ve been playing.” Wing James Johnson: “That’s not what we wanted. That’s not Heat basketball. This is the time where everything should be sharp. I think we messed up on eight or nine defensive details that are just normally done. We can’t take no time off.” Veteran Dwayne Wade: "You want to go into the playoffs on a high note. You don't want to go into the playoffs losing three games in a row. You want to go in feeling good about yourself." Bottom line --- I expect Miami to show up and play hard tonight. And a Heat team that brings their ‘A’ game has no business as home dogs to OKC. The betting markets have fallen in love with OKC here despite the fact that the Thunder have been consistent moneylosers all year; ranked #29 out of 30 NBA teams in profitability this season. Yes, the Thunder are coming off a resounding win at Houston. No, the Rockets didn’t give a sh** about that game. Overvalued commodity vs. Undervalued commodity here. Take the Heat. |
|||||||
04-08-18 | Pistons v. Grizzlies +6.5 | 117-130 | Win | 100 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Memphis (#508) I could do this write-up in a single sentence – Detroit has no business laying 6.5 points on the road to ANYBODY right now. The Pistons are in ‘play out the string’ mode now that they’ve been eliminated from the playoff chase. Lowly Dallas just took them to OT at home in their last game. And while Detroit has a handful of road victories against bottom feeders of late, every one of those wins came when the Pistons were still ‘live’ to make a playoff push. Obviously, that’s no longer the case. Stan Van Gundy used his bench VERY liberally against Dallas on Friday Night, as the Mavs were playing without three of their top five scorers. Here’s Van Gundy’s quote: "I think we can call that a low-intensity game on both sides. There wasn't a lot of urgency to win the game by either team until overtime.” What’s going to be different today; a single awkward start time early game in Memphis before returning home? I’m willing to bet that Detroit’s intensity (or lack thereof) will be on full display again today. Memphis is near the tail end of a truly miserable season, but the Grizzlies continue to draw crowd support and continue to play hard in front of their home fans. They’ve coming off a one point loss to the Kings and a five point win over the Blazers in their last two home games; with a win over Denver and a one point loss to the Bulls before that – this team isn’t laying down. At 15-25 this season playing at the FedEx Forum, unquestioned team leader Marc Gasol had this to say: "For a long time, we made a commitment as a team, as a franchise, to not only be a part of the community, but THE community. I think that's why we have the support that we have from our fans, because they don't see us as somebody that supports the community. They see us a part of them. They see us trying to help in every way possible. There's a reason why we've been so successful. Even though we don't have as many of the older guys that we had here in the past, we try to teach and show, by example, the younger players how important it is for their success, on the court, to support all the people in Memphis.” Expect a battle in the Grizzlies home finale, not a blowout. Take the Grizzlies. |
|||||||
04-07-18 | Nuggets -2 v. Clippers | 134-115 | Win | 100 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
Take Denver (#701) I’ll give Doc Rivers and the LA Clippers all kinds of credit for fighting the good fight in their playoff chase. But fighting the good fight isn’t enough at this stage of the campaign. We’ve seen the undermanned Clippers ‘let go of the rope’ in their last ‘must win’ game, a clear sign that they’re wearing down. They’ve lost three of their last four overall, including a ‘blown fourth quarter lead at home’ in a loss to Indiana ; the lone win coming in a game that San Antonio quite literally gave away in the fourth quarter. Doc Rivers knows what’s up. Here’s his quote following their ‘no-show’ at Utah on Thursday Night: “I thought we let go of the rope. Like, you could see it early. It was disappointing. It happens. It's life. We have to get over it. I have to watch the film. That was disappointing tonight." Dor Rivers, talking about all the injury woes for LA this season"It's been tough. Game to game, because of the injuries, because of the guys we have left, you don't have the luxury of saying, 'This is your lineup every night.' The Clippers top FOUR point guards are all on injured reserve, with Avery Bradley, Patrick Beverley, Milos Teodosic and Juwan Evans all out. The likes of Tyrone Wallace and Sindarius Thornwell were in the starting lineup against the Jazz on Thursday. While they haven’t been ‘officially’ eliminated from the playoff race, they literally need every single game to break right for them between now and Wednesday to reach the postseason. I’m not convinced the Clips have much left in the tank to accomplish that task. Denver keeps finding ways to win – they’ve been in ‘playoff mode’ for the last week and have responded with four consecutive tight victories. Wing Will Barton: “We're not folding. Good play. Bad play. Guys just come together and we stand in it together. There's just a lot of togetherness right now, and I love it." That’s a ‘bet-on’ quote for a hot team facing a cold one in early start action on Saturday. Take the Nuggets. |
|||||||
04-06-18 | Pacers v. Raptors -7.5 | 73-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
Take Toronto (#512) My clients and I cashed an easy ‘right side’ winner backing the Pacers as home dogs against the Warriors last night. Now we get the other end of the equation, with Indiana in a clear ‘bet-against’ spot here against a rested, focused Raptors squad. Put those two factors together and the case for Toronto is pretty darn clear. Indiana has been through the ringer, schedule wise, in recent weeks. They won an OT thriller against Miami, headed out West for a four game trip (winning three of the four) and returned home last night to blow out the Warriors. Now essentially locked into the #5 seed, this is a major flat spot for the road underdog – a tough travel spot off a very big statement win. All the Pacers quotes are looking backwards, not forward. Head coach Nate McMillan, following last night’s win: “I thought it was a big test tonight. I really was looking forward to playing them with their roster tonight, just to see where we were. That's a really good team. I thought our guys responded well to the challenge." Thaddeus Young: “This road trip has been tough. ... I don't know who made the schedule, but this is crazy." Indiana is fat, happy and tired. Toronto needs one victory to clinch the #1 seed in the East. All Star DeMar DeRozan set the tone for himself and his teammates with this quote, after Toronto’s win over Boston earlier in the week that snapped a nine game ATS losing skid: "What do we have, four games left? Every single one is extremely important because once next weekend starts you know, it's literally win or go home. It's no 'my bads' or I get the next one, so these four games are critical and us playing extremely hard and having a rhythm and understanding, our confidence has to be at an all-time high going into next week." Expect a blowout. Take the Raptors. |
|||||||
04-06-18 | Cavs +4.5 v. 76ers | 130-132 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland (#507) To say that the betting markets are a little bit leery of the Cleveland Cavaliers these days is something of an understatement. After all the Cavs have spent virtually the entire season as the single worst pointspread team in the NBA. Their defensive stats are awful, ranked ahead of only Sacramento and Phoenix in points per 100 possessions allowed. The Cavs remain a very banged up team, with point guards George Hill and Jose Calderon both listed as ‘questionable’ this evening – neither guy was able to suit up last night. And the Cavs used a fair bit of energy while rallying from 17 down in the fourth quarter to beat Washington last night. Meanwhile, the 76ers are as hot as Vegas in July, reeling off 12 consecutive wins, despite their own injury woes – both Joel Embiid and Darko Saric have gone down, although Saric cold return tonight. But a closer look at who the Sixers have been beating lately raises a real red flag for this bettor in this pointspread range. Philly’s power rating has been skyrocketing in recent weeks, despite the loss of Embiid – 12 straight wins will do that, especially at a time of year where the markets are paying attention. But look who Philly has beaten during this span – one patsy after the next. Their four wins without Embiid came against lottery bound Detroit, Brooklyn, Charlotte and Atlanta. Prior to that, it was wins over the Knicks, Magic, Grizzlies, Hornets, Nets and Knicks. Their two ‘signature’ wins during this whole hot streak came against the slumping T-Wolves without Jimmy Butler and the Nuggets off back-2-back wins in the midst of a brutal seven game road trip. In short, Philly has been red hot, but they haven’t been beating ANY quality foes. Cleveland is hot too. The Cavs are playing their best ball of the season NOW, despite the injuries. They’ve won five straight and ten of their last eleven, beating playoff teams like the Raptors (twice), Wizards, Pelicans and Bucks during this span. The Cavs have been tremendous underdogs all year – surviving and thriving in tough spots like this, to the tune of a 10-2 ATS mark as dogs of +5 or less. That’s an under-the-radar angle worth riding again here. Take the Cavaliers. |
|||||||
04-05-18 | Warriors v. Pacers +2.5 | 106-126 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
Take Indiana (#702) Make no mistake about it – the betting markets really don’t have a good handle on the Golden State Warriors right now. There’s no urgency for the Warriors at all right now; locked into the #2 seed in the West. While Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green have all returned to the lineup over the last week or two, point guard Steph Curry is still sitting on the sidelines in street clothes, as is key bench defender Andre Igoudala. The Warriors have won three straight following an ugly, injury riddled 3-7 stretch, and the betting markets seem convinced that they are the ‘Warriors’ again, installing them as road chalk in Indiana tonight. But who is Golden State beating these days? Five of their six wins since wins over the past month have come against lottery bound Phoenix (twice), Sacramento, Atlanta and the LA Lakers. But the Warriors beat OKC in OKC on Tuesday, thanks to a truly remarkable roll of the dice from their bench – they shot 18-26 (69%) from the floor – while the Thunder continued their recent struggles down the stretch in tight games. Steve Kerr sure sounded a bit ‘fat and happy’ following that victory in Kevin Durant’s emotional return to his former home court: “It was a great win, short-handed and on the road against a good team fighting for playoff position. It's a hell of a win, especially without all our guards." I’m not convinced that the Warriors will be able to find that same level of intensity for this meaningless road tilt tonight. The quotes coming out of the Indiana locker room are uniformly positive these days, with the Pacers returning home having won three out of four on their West Coast swing. All Star Victor Oladipo: “It was a great road trip. Unfortunately, we wanted to end it a little better. If we look at the bigger picture, it was a great road trip for us and we just have to continue to keep getting better like I said. Confidence is high.” Pacers forward Thaddeus Young: “I think (that road trip) is going to make us road-tough and battle-tested. It's definitely prepping us for the task at hand, which is going to the playoffs and trying to get some games. I think we have been doing a good job of handling it. Just going out there and just playing as a team." Live home dog here! Take the Pacers. |
|||||||
04-04-18 | 76ers v. Pistons UNDER 216.5 | 115-108 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
Take Detroit – Philadelphia UNDER (#503-504) The betting markets sent this total skyrocketing up in early betting action on Wednesday, with Pistons big man Andre Drummond downgraded to ‘questionable’ for tonight’s contest. Drummond is a defensive fixture for Detroit – he’s only missed three games in the last four years, so it’s not like Detroit has much of a track record playing without him And the Sixers offense has been rolling, averaging 117 points per game over their last ten contests thanks to elite level offensive efficiency numbers without Joel Embiid in the lineup. All of that Over $$ pouring in has given us legitimate value with an UNDER wager here. Lost in Philly’s recent offensive execution has been their defensive intensity; holding each of their last five foes to 104 or less while cashing five straight Under bets. This defense has been flat out ‘elite’ of late, holding foes under 40% shooting during this span. The Pistons have very quietly won seven of their last eight ballgames; the lone loss coming at Houston in a 100-96 OT loss. Note that final score against the NBA’s best offense – the Rockets; a game that stayed Under by 16.5 points even AFTER overtime! The Pistons, too, are trending towards the Under of late (6-3 to the Under in their last nine games), and they, too, are playing intense defense on a nightly basis, holding foes under 100 points per game in their last five contests. Philly won’t have two of their top four scorers, with elite perimeter threat Darko Saric expected to join Embiid on the sidelines in street clothes this evening. The Pistons are playing without their leading scorer, Blake Griffin – if Drummond doesn’t suit up, this team is primed to jack up a whole bunch of perimeter jumpers tonight; bad news against a team that’s pretty darn good at defending them! Take the Under. |
|||||||
04-03-18 | Celtics +2 v. Bucks | 102-106 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
Take Boston (#711) The Celtics have made a big move in the standings over the last two weeks, once again ‘live’ to earn the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference after Toronto has faltered. From all indications, it’s a goal the Celtics are taking very, very seriously. Emerging young star Jaylen Brown delivered the ‘bet-on’ quote for the Celtics as they play back-2-backs in Milwaukee and Toronto over the next two nights: “This series is super important. We're not worried about who we play against or anything like that, but we don't want to beat ourselves. So we just need to get better in these games, don't take anyone lightly, and follow the game plan." Boston has shown mental toughness on the highway all year long, a ‘bet-on’ team down the stretch of tight games. That is most assuredly not the case for Milwaukee, who was outscored by more than 12 points per game in the fourth quarters of their just concluded four game road trip. The Bucks couldn’t match Denver’s intensity down the stretch on Sunday, blowing an 18 point lead with seven minutes left. Center John Henson: “We gotta learn to close teams out.” Giannis Antetokounmpo: “We just have to do a better job taking care of the ball late. Keep our composure, for sure." The Celtics have been pointspread gold as short underdogs all year: 11-2 ATS when catching less than five points; a clear indicator of their resiliency and execution level in tight ballgames. Facing a frustrated Bucks team in their first game back from a West Coast swing, look for the Celtics to do what they’ve been doing all year – winning tight games & covering pointspreads as a dog! Take the Celtics. |
|||||||
04-02-18 | Michigan +7 v. Villanova | Top | 62-79 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 54 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Michigan (#601) My clients and I cashed a winning bet on Michigan in their Big 10 Tourney Championship Game victory over Purdue. We cashed AGAINST the Wolverines in their ‘lucky to survive and advance’ game against the Houston Cougars. We cashed a winning Big Ticket wager on Michigan vs. both Texas A&M and Loyola – Chicago. We probably should have cashed a third Big Ticket supporting the Wolverines, but they choked away a double digit lead in the final minute against Florida State, resulting in a push. But the bottom line is that I’ve had a pretty darn good read on my alma mater here in the postseason, and I have no hesitation riding Michigan one more time in a game that has ‘battle down to the final possession’ written all over it! I have three basic points. First, Michigan has survived repeatedly without their ‘A’ game; Villanova isn’t going to play (or shoot) any better than they did on Saturday Night. They opened the game on a 22-4 run in the first seven minutes, on fire from the get-go. They finished the night shooting 55% from the floor and a Final Four record with 18 made three pointers. Head coach Jay Wright: “It was one of those nights (where every shot was falling).” I’m not expecting a repeat performance against the suffocating Wolverines perimeter defense; a defense that has only allowed 24% shooting from beyond the arc in this tournament. And Michigan keeps winning despite not playing 40 minutes of great basketball (with the exception of the A&M game). They’ve got a better game in them than the last two we’ve seen. ‘Nova doesn’t. Second, every team gets tested on their way to the title – when you go back and look through historical results, a 6-0 SU, 6-0 ATS run to win the title is an extremely rare occurrence. ‘Nova has won each of their first five tourney games by a dozen points or more, going 5-0 ATS. They’ve only played four games decided by single digit margins since the beginning of February; not as battle tested in close games as Michigan. ‘Nova lost three of those SU and ATS, all as favorites, and failed to cover as chalk in a one point victory in the fourth. I’m not convinced that ‘Nova will respond well to a tight game during crunch time. Lastly, the value equation really points towards the Wolverines in this title game tilt. ‘Nova has an enormous public bandwagon due to their tourney ATS success, winning and covering every previous game. The Wildcats also have an enormous wiseguy bandwagon thanks to their ‘off-the-charts’ advanced metric offensive numbers, the second best statistical offense in college hoops over the past DECADE. With that type of a betting bandwagon – both public and wiseguys loving ‘Nova – there’s clearly (to this bettor at least) some added value on the Wolverines side of the equation. I’m going to ride Michigan one last time without hesitation in a game that should be a hotly contested battle, not a blowout. Big Ticket: Take Michigan. |
|||||||
03-31-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Michigan -5 | Top | 57-69 | Win | 100 | 124 h 21 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Michigan (#812) The Final Four is where teams like Loyola – non-elites who got hot at the right time, and faced the right draw – tend to go home. Yet when you’re as hot as Loyola has been in this tourney – four straight wins as an underdog, three of them coming in hotly contested, down-to-the-wire finishes – you build up a pretty big betting bandwagon. That’s why the Ramblers are an overvalued commodity heading into their Final Four matchup with the Wolverines. Betting markets focus on statistical profiles. The Ramblers have an impressive statistical profile. They rank in the Top 20 nationally in effective field goal percentage from both two point range and three point range on offense. And Loyola ranks in the Top 25 nationally in defensive efficiency; putting up impressive numbers on both ends of the court. Throw in a 32-5 SU record and a 23-9-1 ATS record – the single best pointspread record in the country – and you can understand why the Ramblers have a BIG betting bandwagon supporting them right now. Who wants to bet against Sister Jean? We do, that’s who! A 98 year old nun was able to keep the spotlight from shining too brightly on the kids who actually won the games leading up to the Final Four, but all of that changes here. A team with no history of dealing with the spotlight and a group of players who have never anticipated being on this stage are likely to have a moment or two (or three, or four) where this stage gets a little bit too big for them. And the cavernous Alamodome is no friendly shooting venue for kids who haven’t been on this type of stage before. No disrespect to Miami, Tennessee, Kansas State or Nevada, but none of that quartet is as good as Michigan. In addition, that quartet of foes was notably short on team chemistry – only three senior starters combined on the four teams. Nevada was largely made up of transfers; K-State’s best low post threat was hurt and a non-factor. Loyola is no joke, but they’re taking a legitimate step up in class here. Michigan has shown repeatedly under John Beilein that the stage is never too big and the program is (almost) never in rebuilding mode. The Wolverines team chemistry on offense can only be described as ‘spectacular’, despite their rough shooting here in the tournament. And that rough shooting is another reason why this play gets bumped up to Big Ticket status. The Wolverines went into their opening round matchup having scored at least a point per possession in each of their 18 previous NCAA Tournament games. Michigan is here in the Final Four despite reaching a point per possession only once in their first four tourney games – the one with the appropriate amount of prep time (vs. Texas A&M). Michigan bombed the Aggies for 99 points: 62% from the floor, 14-24 from three point range. Beilein with extra time (but not too much time, like the extended layoff after the Big 10 tourney) is as ‘bet-on’ as it gets and the Wolverines lack of ATS success in the Big Dance has them as a legitimate value laden squad in a game I expect them to win by a comfortable margin. Big Ticket: Take Michigan. |
|||||||
03-30-18 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -15 | 97-107 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
Take Utah (#514) The Jazz have been the single best defensive team in the NBA by a fairly wide margin since Rudy Gobert returned from his injury in January. But Utah’s defense couldn’t get stops down the stretch on Wednesday, allowing a 9-0 Celtics run-out to end the game. That marked the second consecutive home loss for Utah – they lost SU to the Hawks on the final game before their last road trip. I’m always interested in the Jazz off a loss, a team that has responded extremely well to adversity all season long. And there’s a real sense of urgency for Utah right now – they’ve slipped all the way down to the #8 spot in the Western Conference standings, with the Clippers and Nuggets hot on their heels for the final playoff berth. Rookie of the Year candidate Donovan Mitchell: “We'll bounce back. There are seven games left and we know what's at stake." Memphis is off back-2-back wins, stealing one from Portland in the latter stages on Wednesday while getting a hot roll of the shooting dice from their bench in both contests. Make no mistake about it – this is NOT a team primed to execute offensively against a focused, defensive minded foe – they’ve lost by 61 at Charlotte and by 31 at Dallas in recent road tilts; collecting ping pong balls for the lottery. The Grizz have yet to reach 90 points in a pair of home losses to the Jazz already this season. I’m not convinced they’ll get to 80 in Salt Lake City tonight. And, after shooting just 21-91 from three point range over their last three home games, expect Utah to knock down enough long range jumpers to cash our wager with room to spare. Points worth laying! Take the Jazz. |
|||||||
03-29-18 | Thunder -2 v. Spurs | 99-103 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Take Oklahoma City (#706) The injury bug hasn’t stopped in San Antonio, with LaMarcus Aldridge the latest Spur to get hurt. While Aldridge is officially a ‘game time decision’ for tonight, the bottom line is that San Antonio isn’t winning games when Aldridge doesn’t dominate on the offense end of the court. Aldridge scored 13 points in 17 minutes against the Wizards earlier in the week before hurting his left knee. Despite his limited playing time, he STILL led the team in scoring – offensive production is a major issue for San Antonio these days. The Spurs rank #22 in the NBA in offensive efficiency in March, a span of 13 games. Manu Ginibili’s quote speaks volumes: ''We are at a point if LaMarcus gets a cough, a cold, we are in deep trouble. So hopefully it's just a one half thing because if not it's really going to get tough to score down the stretch.” Greg Popovich and the Spurs aren’t quitters, but I really wonder how much motivation there actually is in that locker room to snag a #7 or #8 seed and then get wiped out by Houston or Golden State in the first round. This is NOT a ‘playing hungry’ team right now, plain and simple. OKC is rested and ready – they’ve had three full prep days for the Spurs and have played only five games in the last 16 days. The focus should be there – OKC trails San Antonio by one game in the Western Conference Standings, and they’re coming off a bad home loss to the Blazers in their last contest. It’s an OKC spot, and frankly, right now, there’s no question that the Thunder are the better of these two teams, whether Aldridge suits up or not! Take the Thunder. |
|||||||
03-28-18 | Cavs +1 v. Hornets | 118-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland (#505) There’s been a fair bit of love in the betting markets for Charlotte this morning, with the expectation that Cavs big man Kevin Love is going to miss tonight’s game due to concussion protocol. Whether Love plays (a very real possibility) or not, at the current price, the Cavs are worthy of a wager against the Hornets. Why is Charlotte getting the betting market love here? Well, they haven’t been eliminated from the playoffs yet and they’re on a 4-0 SU and ATS run. Meanwhile, the banged up Cavs are on the second night of back-2-backs, off an ugly no-show in Miami last night. That’s what the NBA markets tend to do – knee jerk towards the spot. But Charlotte’s current four game winning streak doesn’t mean all that much when we look at their opponents: the Knicks, Mavs, Grizzlies and Nets; all of whom are at least 21 games under .500. Even in those wins, the Knicks and Mavs took them to the wire, and they trailed by 22 against the Nets before their rally. We can go back much further than this four game winning streak. Charlotte’s wins before that came against Atlanta, Phoenix, Chicago, Detroit, Brooklyn, Orlando and Phoenix again. Their ‘signature’ win since the beginning of February came at Washington playing without John Wall in a major flat spot for the Wizards. It’s surely worth noting that even in that lone ‘step up’ victory, the Hornets allowed 50% shooting, winning the game only due to a positive roll of the dice from three point range, nailing 17 trifectas. Against winning teams like the Cavs, the Hornets are 2-14 SU in their last 16 tries – the aforementioned win against the Wizards and one ‘short turnaround revenge’ win against Indiana when the Pacers, too, were shorthanded. Charlotte isn’t beating decent teams, let alone good ones, even in tough spots. And the Cavs are set up very well for the second of back-2-backs, despite their own injury concerns. Interim coach Larry Drew emptied the bench early last night, with only two guys getting more than 27 minutes of court time. The Cavs shot 4-26 from three point range last night against Miami’s strong perimeter defense. Charlotte ranks #27 at defending the three point shot. For all the of Cleveland’s ATS struggles this year – by far the worst pointspread record in the league – there is actually one role where they’ve been profitable – very profitable. As underdogs of +4.5 or less, the Cavs are 9-2 ATS this season; 10-5 ATS as underdogs in any price range. That’s an under-the-radar angle worth backing this evening. Take the Cavs. |
|||||||
03-27-18 | Nuggets v. Raptors -8.5 | 110-114 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
Take Toronto (#764) The Raptors haven’t played much good basketball over the last two weeks. Dallas took them to OT. Orlando gave them a ‘down –to-the-wire’ battle. They lost to OKC and Cleveland. Last Friday Night, the Raptors barely survived a test from the 23-50 Nets. Then on Sunday, they blew a big early lead in a home loss to the Clippers. From all indications, there’s a real sense of urgency today after this string of shoddy efforts. All Star DeMar DeRozan gave us a real ‘bet-on’ quote for this pointspread range following the tight game against Brooklyn on Friday: “It was terrible for us to come out and play the way we did. It was terrible. We can't have lapses like that; feel like we can go into games and turn it on and off when we want. We are playing for something bigger. No disrespect to them at all but we've got a bigger goal in mind. We've got to go out and treat teams like that and play hard out of the gate. Not being in a dog fight coming down the last couple of possessions.” Head coach Dwayne Casey: “We were not sharp whatsoever. I mean, we didn't deserve to win that game. We found a way down the stretch but that's not playoff basketball, that's not winning basketball whatsoever. So many mental mistakes, we're like we're in a fog, and again, if we're serious about winning, we'll get some focus, and throughout everybody, one through 15." I expected Toronto to come up strong against the Clippers on Sunday, but it turned out to be ‘one of those kinda games’. All Stars DeRozan and Kyle Lowry both struggled, combining to make only seven shots between them. DeRozan: “Just one of those nights. You can't play how you want to play every single night." And the Raptors bench, a unit of strength all year, had a lousy game. Dwayne Casey: “That's the first time in a long time our second unit did not play well.” All of which sets Toronto up for a focused effort this evening. While the Raptors are primed to step up, this is a truly ugly spot for the road underdog. Denver is on the second of back-2-backs, off a battle in Philly last night that saw all five starters play for 30+ minutes. They’re in the midst of a season long seven game road trip, moving through five different time zones in the process. They’ve got a huge showdown at OKC coming up next as well. Leading scorer Gary Harris is still sitting on the sidelines in street clothes. Head coach Mike Malone, about the loss of his star: “It's very unfortunate because it's killing Gary. Gary lives for these moments. ... it's a big player to be without." Without Harris, look for Malone and the Nuggets to come up short – very short – here. Take the Raptors. |
|||||||
03-27-18 | Western Kentucky v. Utah | 64-69 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Western Kentucky (#777) The betting markets have these two teams essentially power rated equally right now, leaving us with a pick ‘em pointspread for Tuesday Night’s NIT semi-finals at Madison Square Garden. My numbers show Western Kentucky as the clear favorite in this one, setting up a wager on the Hilltoppers to reach the NIT Finals. Yes, Rick Stansbury entered the season with a severely depleted roster, to put it mildly. Their 15-17 team from last year returned only one PLAYER (zero starters) in Justin Johnson. All three of Stansbury’s assistant coaches from last year left the program. To say that expectations were modest is something of an understatement. But Stansbury hit the recruiting trail hard. He brought in transfers Darius Thompson (Tennessee & Virginia), Dwight Coleby (Ole Miss & Kansas), also Lamonte Bearden (Buffalo). He brought in freshmen Taveion Hollingsworth and Josh Anderson, who combined to average 21 points per game between them. The talent influx was easy to spot from Day 1. Western Kentucky enjoyed the benefits of a summer trip to Costa Rica, building chemistry early. They enjoyed a great, confidence boosting non-conference slate, including a three game set in the Bahamas against ‘Nova, Purdue and a healthy (at the time) SMU team, going 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS against that trio of heavyweights, with all three covers coming by double digit margins. But after rolling through their C-USA slate, they lost a one point heartbreaker to Marshall, relegating them to the NIT. Some teams would be crushed by that type of defeat, especially against a Thundering Herd squad that they dominated in both regular season meetings. Not this squad! The Hilltoppers blew out Boston College in their tourney opener, then went on the road and knocked off USC and Oklahoma State; a team playing their best ball of the season right now. With five double digit scorers, this team is going to be a real handful for Utah to defend. Many things have broken right for Utah to reach the NIT’s Final Four. The Utes got a friendly draw – Cal Davis wasn’t much of a test, LSU was banged up and not interested, and St Mary’s couldn’t survive an OT game where they shot 36% from the free throw line. But second leading scorer and rebounder David Collette just had his first child over the weekend, a major distraction for the senior. 150 pound point guard Justin Bibbins won’t have a major quickness edge here like he did in the Utes run to get here. And only one of these two teams was a consistent moneymaker away from home this year – Western Kentucky – while the Utes did the vast majority of their damage in the friendly confines of Salt Lake City. Expect a Hilltoppers victory! Take Western Kentucky. |
|||||||
03-25-18 | Clippers v. Raptors -8.5 | 117-106 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 0 m | Show | |
Take Toronto (#712) Toronto has been a ‘bet-on’ team in every sense of the word for most of the season. And today’s game against the Clippers has all the makings of a ‘bet-on’ spot for this ‘bet-on’ team. The Raptors haven’t played much good basketball over the last ten days. Dallas took them to OT. Orlando gave them a ‘down –to-the-wire’ battle. They lost to OKC and Cleveland. This past Friday Night, the Raptors barely survived a test from the 23-50 Nets. And from all indications, there’s a real sense of urgency today after this string of shoddy efforts. All Star DeMar DeRozan gave us a real ‘bet-on’ quote for this pointspread range following the tight game against Brooklyn on Friday: “It was terrible for us to come out and play the way we did. It was terrible. We can't have lapses like that; feel like we can go into games and turn it on and off when we want. We are playing for something bigger. No disrespect to them at all but we've got a bigger goal in mind. We've got to go out and treat teams like that and play hard out of the gate. Not being in a dog fight coming down the last couple of possessions.” Head coach Dwayne Casey: “We were not sharp whatsoever. I mean, we didn't deserve to win that game. We found a way down the stretch but that's not playoff basketball, that's not winning basketball whatsoever. So many mental mistakes, we're like we're in a fog, and again, if we're serious about winning, we'll get some focus, and throughout everybody, one through 15." The Clippers aren’t primed to hang tough with an elite team in a ‘max focus’ spot. Here’s an excerpt from my last anti- LA write-up as they lost SU and ATS in Indiana on Friday Night: “The Clippers just got their streak snapping victory, beating Milwaukee in Milwaukee on Wednesday thanks to a 52% shooting effort overall while hitting 15-30 from three point range. That’s the type of shooting it takes for LA to win road games these days; a squad that isn’t playing much defense these days. LA has allowed 120+ in each of their last four games, with their opponents hitting better than 50% of their shots against the Clippers during that span. That type of defensive effort isn’t likely to get it done!” The Clips enjoyed another great shooting night against Indiana on Friday: 55% from the floor, including ten made three pointers. Even that level of shooting wasn’t enough to get the win or cover for a squad that simply can’t get consistent stops on the defensive end of the court. Toronto’s defense held LA to 37% shooting; 22% from beyond the arc in the first meeting between these two squads this year. Anything close to that level of defensive effort today is likely to turn this one into a big, bad blowout! Lay the points! Take the Raptors. |
|||||||
03-25-18 | Duke -3 v. Kansas | 81-85 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 9 m | Show | |
Take Duke (#721) My clients and I bet on Duke vs. Syracuse on Friday Night. The bad news is that the Blue Devils did not play particularly well on either end of the court, costing us a wager. The good news is that loss has prevented anything resembling a Duke betting bandwagon forming, leaving ample value to back Coach K’s squad in their Elite Eight matchup on Sunday. Duke did not execute their gameplan against Syracuse. They struggled to control the offensive glass and missed open look after open look, hitting just 39% from the floor overall and 19% from three point range. In a matchup against Kansas, I expect all of those numbers to improve. Kansas ranks #295 in the country in defensive rebounding percentage – even worse than Syracuse. Duke ranks #1 in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. Duke’s second chance opportunities were not difference makers ATS when they were -11 on Friday, but in this pointspread range, I expect the Blue Devils low post acumen to be a legitimate difference maker. Wendall Carter and Marvin Bagley have the edge over foul prone Udoka Azubuike, plain and simple. I also expect Duke’s zone defense to give Kansas fits. Kansas has shot 45% from beyond the arc in their last five games – a huge part of their recent success -- but they haven’t been facing a defense like this one. The Blue Devils have allowed more than 70 points just ONCE in their last dozen games, quite simply stifling foes on the perimeter. In a game where the Jayhawks are likely to lose the battle of the boards by margin, a tough matchup on the perimeter is likely to doom their Final Four chances on Sunday. Take Duke. |
|||||||
03-24-18 | Florida State v. Michigan -4 | 54-58 | Push | 0 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
Take Michigan (#516) My clients and I cashed as easy a Big Ticket winner as we’ll ever have on Michigan in their Sweet 16 blowout over Texas A&M. And there’s no reason to think that the Wolverines aren’t a ‘bet-on’ squad once again on Sunday as they battle upstart Florida State. Let me start with an excerpt from my last pro-Wolverines write-up: This one is real simple. Michigan did NOT bring their ‘A’ game last weekend in either contest; particularly on the offensive end of the court. The Wolverines went into their game against Montana having scored at least a point per possession in 18 consecutive games against Big 10 competition. Yet Michigan didn’t manage to reach a point per possession in their wins over Montana or Houston last weekend. They were awful from long distance as well, hitting just 28% from beyond the arc in their two games at Wichita. Wolverines head coach John Beilein: “We’re doing some things that I don’t know and we got to address them and try to get better at them. I think we made some of the mistakes — we have only lost seven games, but those seven losses I felt we did some things that just don’t make sense and they’re not characteristic.” I concur wholeheartedly; and I certainly don’t expect another ‘not characteristic’ offensive game here. The Wolverines shot 62% from the floor against the Aggies while hitting 14-24 from three point range. I do NOT expect Michigan to match those offensive numbers here. However, Michigan’s defense is primed to give a team like Florida State fits; a very difficult matchup for the underdog. Michigan ranks #3 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and #31 in defensive rebounding percentage – the Wolverines eliminate transition opportunities, get stops in the halfcourt and corral their opponents’ missed shots. Florida State ranks among the faster teams in the country in average length of possessions – they want to push tempo and often lack patience in halfcourt sets. Michigan doesn’t let ANYBODY push tempo against them, ranked #299 in the country in average length of possession on defense. The Seminoles are coming off two wins against uptempo foes Xavier and Gonzaga. I legitimately question their ability to shift gears into a slower tempo game with less than 48 hours of prep time. And the Seminoles dicey numbers defending the three point line gives me confidence that at some point in this ballgame, Michigan is going to go on a big run and take control. Take Michigan |
|||||||
03-23-18 | Texas Tech +2 v. Purdue | 78-65 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
Take Texas Tech (#873) With all hands back on deck, Texas Tech is an undervalued commodity right now. Let’s not forget that the Red Raiders were 22-4 & ranked in the Top 10 when the injury bug struck. Senior point guard Keenan Evans suffered a toe injury and missed five games. Senior forward Zack Smith also missed extended time. Senior wing Justin Gray missed action during that skid as well. All three of those guys are healthy now, combining for 43 points and 17 rebounds in the win over Florida to reach the Sweet 16. But the Red Raiders are not about offense – this team reached the Top 10 because of their elite level defensive numbers. That being said, I want my money on Keenan Evans in a tight game late – there’s a reason Texas Tech has won 70% of their games decided by five points or less or in OT this year….. The Red Raiders finished the regular season as one of only two teams in the country ranking in the Top 15 in both effective field goal percentage allowed on defense and turnovers forced on defense. When you are pressuring opposing shooters AND forcing turnovers in bunches, you win games and cover pointspreads – period. I’m a big fan of Chris Beard, and think Beard has a legitimate edge over Matt Painter with extra time to prepare. And this quote from Beard is truly a ‘bet-on’ quote: “Anything you want in life, kind of like basketball, I think you have to have a plan for what you want. So we’d like to have a good March. Our plan is pretty specific. And one of the parts of our plan is we want to try to have more fun than anybody in college basketball this month. So, led by our seniors, we’re going to try to enjoy every moment. That’s what March is. I’m glad our guys are having fun.” I’ve had the same read on Purdue all year long – a Sweet 16 caliber team, not a Final Four squad. The Isaac Haas injury certainly won’t help their offensive game. While backup Matt Haarms can play defense and rebound, he’s not much of a scoring threat or much of a passer out of the low post. For an ‘inside-out’ offense like that of the Boilermakers, an injured low post stud isn’t going to help matters. And a Purdue defense that has had a 7-footer on the court as a rim protector at all times this year won’t have that same level of low post defense tonight. Take Texas Tech. |
|||||||
03-23-18 | Syracuse v. Duke -11 | Top | 65-69 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Duke (#876) My clients and I cashed winning bets on Syracuse in all three of the Orange victories last week, as Syracuse knocked off Arizona State, TCU and Michigan State, all as underdogs. That was then, this is now. Jim Boeheim’s squad enjoys a major advantage against teams that haven’t seen their 2-3 matchup zone before. In three tourney games, the Orange have held foes to 0.89 points per possession and 25.6% shooting from three point range. But Syracuse won’t have that same edge vs. fellow ACC foe Duke. ACC foes -- teams that see this zone every year – hit 8% higher from three point range for the season, and averaged more than a point per possession. The Blue Devils faced Syracuse less than a month ago. The Syracuse zone gave them fits on the perimeter, as Duke hit only 2-18 from three point range. It didn’t matter. Coach K designed a gameplan to feed his bigs, throwing over the zone into the low post. Wendall Carter and Marvin Bagley combined to shoot 13-20 from the floor, finishing with 35 points and 17 rebounds between them. That’s a matchup edge the Blue Devils know how to exploit – they’ve been running the same defense themselves for the better part of the last six weeks -- and that matchup edge hasn’t gone away. There’s one major weakness for Jim Boeheim’s defensive approach – it affects their defensive rebounding in a negative way. For the season, Syracuse ranks #240 in the country at controlling the defensive glass – they give up waaaaaaay to many second chance looks. Michigan State had a 29-7 edge on the offensive glass against the Orange last Sunday, but they kept missing their second chance tries. Duke is the #1 offensive rebounding team in the COUNTRY, capturing more than 39% of their own misses. Expect controlling the glass to be a major problem for the Orange tonight. Syracuse scored a grand total of 44 points in the first meeting, and they’ve yet to crack 60 in the NCAA Tournament. This can’t be a surprise for a team that hasn’t been able to put the biscuit in the basket all year, ranked #325 in effective field goal percentage offense; dismal from two point range (#323) and three point range (#309). In a game totaled in the 130’s, Syracuse’s offensive weaknesses are likely to doom their chances. Expect a blowout. Big Ticket: Take Duke. |
|||||||
03-23-18 | Clippers v. Pacers -3 | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
Take Indiana (#852) Here’s the key quote from Pacers head coach Nate McMillan following Indiana’s tight loss at New Orleans on Wednesday: “We didn't show any poise out there tonight. We were playing too fast. Everybody was taking quick shots and just settling. I didn't recognize our group tonight. We normally play good basketball and are playing connected." And it’s surely worth noting Pelicans head coach Alvin Gentry’s quote after that game: "We got nothing that was easy. It was a really hard-fought, hard game to play." Center Myles Turner, after Indiana’s second lowest scoring game of the season: “We missed some shots that we normally make.” All Star wing Victor Oladipo: “There were some things we could have done better. Obviously, we need to go back and watch film and correct it." We know that Indiana is tough – they’ll give just about anyone they play a ‘hard fought’ game. And we can expect the Pacers to bounce back strong off a ‘no poise’ game on the highway – this is most assuredly a ‘step-up’ spot for the home team, especially after losing three of their last four overall. The Clippers just got their streak snapping victory, beating Milwaukee in Milwaukee on Wednesday thanks to a 52% shooting effort overall while hitting 15-30 from three point range. That’s the type of shooting it takes for LA to win road games these days; a squad that isn’t playing much defense these days. LA has allowed 120+ in each of their last four games, with their opponents hitting better than 50% of their shots against the Clippers during that span. That type of defensive effort isn’t likely to get it done tonight! Take the Pacers. |
|||||||
03-22-18 | Lakers +2.5 v. Pelicans | 125-128 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Take the LA Lakers (#805) Over the course of the long NBA season, many teams deal with ‘bad spots’; situations where the schedule gets downright nasty for tired teams. Occasionally, you’ll find a VERY ‘bad spot’ game that stands out; when teams are in the midst of a particularly grueling stretch of games. And then you’ve got the spot the New Orleans Pelicans are in tonight, arguably the single worst ‘spot’ for any team all year. Here’s why: Back before the All Star Break, the Smoothie Center had a leaky roof, forcing the Pelicans – Pacers game to get cancelled and re-scheduled. The only time that worked for both teams was yesterday; New Orleans’ fourth game in five nights. Now it’s five games in six nights – the only team in the league to deal with that situation; a most rare scheduling spot. This spot would be brutal no matter what. But last night’s game was a tough, physical throwdown that came down to the final minute, a ‘playoff atmosphere’ type of game. Anthony Davis, following his HUGE performance down the stretch to notch the victory: “The only thing I was thinking was like, `Please don't go into overtime’.” Pelicans head coach Alvin Gentry:"We got nothing that was easy. It was a really hard-fought, hard game to play." It’s also worth noting this quote from Indiana head coach Nate McMillan, following last night’s loss to the Pelicans: "We didn't show any poise out there tonight. We were playing too fast. Everybody was taking quick shots and just settling. I didn't recognize our group tonight.” This is the final game for the Pelicans in this brutal stretch. And since losing to the Rockets in the first game, the Pelicans have won each of the next three, taking the urgency of as they’ve moved up to the #5 seed in the West. They’ve played tight, physical battles in each of the last two nights. I’m expecting this team to be a step slow on both ends of the court tonight; bad news against a Lakers team coming in with a chip on their collective shoulders off three straight losses and in revenge for a 139-117 embarrassment on Valentine’s Day. Live dog here! Take the Lakers. |
|||||||
03-22-18 | Texas A&M v. Michigan -3 | Top | 72-99 | Win | 100 | 55 h 20 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Michigan (#818) This one is real simple. Michigan did NOT bring their ‘A’ game last weekend in either contest; particularly on the offensive end of the court. The Wolverines went into their game against Montana having scored at least a point per possession in 18 consecutive games against Big 10 competition. Yet Michigan didn’t manage to reach a point per possession in their wins over Montana or Houston last weekend. They were awful from long distance as well, hitting just 28% from beyond the arc in their two games at Wichita. That leaves Michigan without a significant betting bandwagon here, an undervalued commodity heading into Thursday’s showdown at the Staples Center in LA. Wolverines head coach John Beilein: “We’re doing some things that I don’t know and we got to address them and try to get better at them. I think we made some of the mistakes — we have only lost seven games, but those seven losses I felt we did some things that just don’t make sense and they’re not characteristic.” I concur wholeheartedly; and I certainly don’t expect another ‘not characteristic’ offensive game here. To survive and advance without playing particularly well on offense in either game is a testament to Beilein’s coaching acumen. And when we look at Beilein with extra time to prepare for the second weekend of NCAA Tournament Games, the results are consistently strong even dating back to his tenure at West Virginia; a ‘bet-on’ coach in these settings . Billy Kennedy has no similar track record in tournament settings, and his Aggies, unlike the Wolverines, can’t play much better than they did last weekend. Kennedy has turned to frosh point guard TJ Starks here in the Big Dance, averaging 33 minutes and 18 points last weekend compared to 21 minutes and 10 points during the regular season. I don’t want a frosh point guard – even a very good one – against Beilein’s defense in this pointspread range. The Aggies interior size helped them dominate North Carolina last Sunday, but their lack of quickness is poised to doom their chances against the Wolverines on Thursday. VERY cheap price to lay with the superior team coming off a shoddy showing, in a game that I expect them to win by margin! Big Ticket: Take Michigan. |
|||||||
03-22-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Nevada -1.5 | 69-68 | Loss | -105 | 55 h 49 m | Show | |
Take Nevada (#816) Loyola won’t beat themselves; a fundamentally sound basketball team on both ends of the court. But it’s certainly not going to be easy for the Ramblers to match up with Nevada’s NBA caliber talent. Loyola is in the Sweet 16 because of two last second buzzer beaters – true. But really, they are in the Sweet 16 because they just faced a pair of very young teams that the Ramblers were able to out-execute. Loyola has more senior starters (two) than Miami and Tennessee combined (one). And with seven frosh or sophomore starters for the Vols and Hurricanes; their collective lack of polish in the latter stages allowed enough of a window for Loyola to climb through. That was then. This is now. Nevada might have entered the tourney with a lower seed than Tennessee or Miami, but they’re not a squad lacking in talent. They’ve got a former NBA head coach in Eric Musselman and a pair of guys with NBA upside, including leading scorer Caleb Martin and fellow ball handling wing Kendall Stephens. And, crucially, unlike the two teams Loyola just beat, the Wolfpack aren’t loaded with youngsters. Five of Musselman’s six rotation players are juniors and seniors and the sixth, sophomore Josh Hall, has played more than 1200 minutes for the Wolfpack in his first two seasons in Reno. Nevada’s lack of depth – Musselman routinely uses only one guy off the bench – has resulted in two strong factors in their favor. First, the Wolfpack enjoy truly outstanding on-court chemistry, committing a grand total of NINE turnovers in their first two tourney games, continuing a season long testament to outstanding execution on offense. Secondly, the Wolfpack have developed tremendous conditioning; a team that consistently closes out games with a flourish! Playing in altitude (both at home and on the road), and dealing with a short rotation has led to quotes like this one, from coach Musselman: “We put such a premium on being in such great physical condition, in nutrition. We go really, really hard in practice. There’s no standing around. In 2 hours, we basically get 3½ hours of work done, which conditions their bodies.” Or this quote from Jordan Caroline, who led the Mountain West Conference in minutes played: “We did a lot more intense stuff over the summer, like the Tahoe runs. You go up to the mountains and it’s hard to breath. The elevation factor definitely makes a difference. Then when we go to other places, we have lungs for days.” No surprise here if the Wolfpack ‘lungs’ are difference makers in this one. Sorry, Sister Jean, but it’s time for Loyola to go home. Take Nevada. |
|||||||
03-21-18 | Hornets v. Nets +2 | 111-105 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
Take Brooklyn (#758) Charlotte has no business as road chalk against ANYBODY right now, and Brooklyn is showing a nice little spark during the dog days of March. Put those two factors together and it’s relatively easy to make a case for the Nets as home underdogs this evening. Charlotte has fallen to 30-41; 7.5 games behind Milwaukee for the final spot in the Eastern Conference Playoffs with 11 games remaining. They’ve been at their worst during crunch time, like they were in Philly on Monday when a tie game with 6:00 left in the fourth quarter turned into a 14 point defeat. Charlotte took 30 free throws in that game. Philadelphia took eight. Yet here was Dwight Howard complaining after the game: “I just thought it was crap the whole night. I thought the referees did a good job of trying to keep players out of the game. ... It's not cool. I think that really got the momentum for the other team. Officiating hasn't been that bad all year. I was pretty upset about that. I tried to fight through it. It just kept getting worse. I never complain, I never really say nothing about refs to anybody in the media. But tonight wasn't cool." Charlotte is 2-8 SU in their last ten games, the only wins coming vs. Atlanta and Phoenix – and they didn’t cover against the truly tanking Suns. They got blown out at Madison Square Garden by the Knicks prior to the loss to Philly, and they’ve got another game on tap for tomorrow on the second of back-2-backs at home against Memphis. ‘Circle the wagons’ time has come and gone for the Hornets, a team to fade as chalk moving forward. Brooklyn, of course, is NOT tanking because they’ve already traded away their #1 draft pick. And they’re playing like a team that gives a hoot; notching back-2-back wins over Memphis and Dallas in their last two ballgames. The Nets are finally getting healthy, and they’re playing like it. Head coach Kenny Atkinson following their win against the Grizzlies: “I think in the fourth quarter we put a lot more resistance on and we became a lot more physical. Giving up 21 points in the fourth quarter, I thought that was key. Seventeen last game, 21 this game. The defense was good again in the fourth quarter. We buckled down and got stops when we needed to, took care of the ball when we needed to, made free throws when we needed to." These are clearly positive signs moving forward from this ‘bet-on’ team in a home dog pointspread range. Take the Nets. |
|||||||
03-20-18 | Penn State v. Marquette OVER 150.5 | 85-80 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
Take Penn State – Marquette OVER (#665-666) Oregon scored at a 1.18 points per possession clip on Marquette in the Golden Eagles last game, one of many shoddy defensive showings for Steve Wojciechowski’s squad throughout the course of the campaign. But with a pair of 20 points per game scorers in Markus Howard and Andrew Rowsey capable of lighting up the scoreboard; Marquette’s limited defensive acumen hasn’t hurt them in the NIT. They’ve shot 45% from three point range and 90% from the charity stripe through their first two NIT games on this floor, primed for similar success tonight. Penn State has been mired in the muck – they, quite literally, haven’t faced a true uptempo team like Marquette in months. After playing one grinder after the next in Big 10 action -- and even in the first two rounds of the NIT against Notre Dame and Temple – this is the first chance for the Nittany Lions to play in space on the offensive end. With elite level guard play from Tony Carr and Josh Reaves, look for Penn State’s offensive execution to be rock solid in this one. Penn State has hit their free throws at a 75% clip over their last five games. Their best shot blocker and low post defender Mike Watkins just got hurt, a major loss on the defensive end. And, in this pointspread range, with a trip to the NIT Final Four on the line, don’t be shocked in the slightest if we see ‘scramble points’ in bunches over the final few minutes of this contest. Take the Over. |
|||||||
03-19-18 | Pistons v. Kings +3.5 | 106-90 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Sacramento (#616) I could do this write-up in a single sentence: “The Pistons can’t be laying points.” The results don’t lie. The Pistons are 0-12 SU in their last dozen road games, just 1-17 SU on the highway since mid-December. They’re 2-10 SU on any floor since the All Star Break, with eight of those losses coming by nine points or more, ugly defeats. The Pistons have basically dropped out of the playoff race, now six games behind #8 seed Miami in the loss column with only 13 games left to play. Blake Griffin has largely been a non-factor on the defensive end, and his 6.5 rebounds per game average with Detroit is the lowest (by far) of his career. This is NOT a team that is suddenly about to flip some switch and step up with strong play tonight or moving forward. Sacramento went into the All Star Break as competitive underdogs; 7-2 ATS in their last nine tries catching more than five points. They’ve come out of the break every bit as competitive: 8-2 ATS in their last ten ballgames, including FIVE SU wins as underdogs. The Kings young trio of DeAaron Fox, Bogdan Bogdanovich and Willie Cauley Stein are true building blocks. So are Buddy Hield and Skal Labissiere and with the likes of Vince Carter, Garrett Temple and Zack Randolph getting regular minutes, there’s no shortage of veteran leadership for this squad. Kings shooting guard Buddy Hield gives us a nice ‘bet-on’ quote here, coming off three consecutive 20 point/5 assists games: “Finding our identity is something we're finding late. But it's better to end on a better note….. Just making plays for my teammates and don't think selfishly about myself. That's going to open more doors, and that's helped me in the last five or six games. I'm going to keep building on that." Wrong team favored here! Take the Kings. |
|||||||
03-19-18 | LSU v. Utah -4.5 | 71-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Take Utah (#620) Utah didn’t bring their ‘A’ game for their NIT opener against UC Davis. Head coach Larry Krystowiak was not amused, getting ejected from the game early and sparking his team to victory. Utes senior Ty Rawson – one of four senior starters for the Utes – admitted that his team lacked focus early, but they’re ready to go now: “Now it’s just one step closer (to the Final Four at Madison Square Garden).” Junior Parker Van Dyke: "It’s always fun to have a big-time school come in hereWe’ve done pretty well against the SEC this year (beating both Missouri and Ole Miss). A tournament atmosphere is definitely different than any other kind of game. So it feels good to get that first one under our belt. Now we can just move forward with confidence knowing we can win in a tournament style of play.” LSU’s Will Wade knows what’s coming tonight, already making excuses before tip-off: “They're a very good team. And there's no easy comparison to anyone we've seen in the SEC. It's a big challenge for us, especially on the road." To make matters worse for the Tigers, they are most assuredly not a healthy team right now, dealing with a bevy of bumps and bruises. Leading scorer, frosh Tremont Waters just had surgery on his broken nose, although he is expected to suit up. Skylar Mays hasn’t been able to practice, dealing with a broken bone in his non-shooting hand. Aaron Epps and Duop Reath are both ailing as well. For a team that hasn’t won a single game away from home since January 10th (0-8 SU, without a single pointspread cover during that span), it’s not hard to make a case for fading them tonight in Salt Lake City. Take Utah. |
|||||||
03-18-18 | Syracuse +9.5 v. Michigan State | 55-53 | Win | 100 | 3 h 21 m | Show | |
Take Syracuse (#715 ) There are four key factors in play here for me. First, I’ve had success both this year and in season’s past betting against many of the ‘public’ favorites in the Round of 32. Make no mistake about it – both the public and the wiseguys are betting Michigan State today – the sportsbooks need Syracuse, and I have no hesitation betting with the books and against the public at this time of the year. Second, we’ve been riding Syracuse as an undervalued commodity in this tournament so far, cashing winning bets with the Orange as underdogs against Arizona State and TCU in their first two tournament games. Syracuse is a tough out, for sure; a team that was clearly gassed down the stretch – Jim Boeheim’s team lacks quality depth – but had a much needed full week off prior to the start of the tourney. And after winning their first two tourney games in SU fashion despite some ugly offensive numbers in both games – 37% shooting against the Horned Frogs with only three made three pointers; 41% shooting and ten missed free throws against the Sun Devils – Syracuse has clearly proven that elite level offensive execution isn’t the difference maker for their pointspread success. Third, Michigan State has all the makings of an overvalued commodity right now. Over the last five weeks, Tom Izzo’s squad has gone 6-1 SU, but only 2-5 ATS. They’ve been facing one relatively weak foe after the next: Northwestern, Wisconsin twice, Illinois, Minnesota and Bucknell. In fact, their only ‘step-up game since a three point win over Purdue on February 10th was a double digit loss to Michigan in the Big 10 tournament. Sparty hasn’t stepped up well in a while, and they’ve been an overvalued commodity in the betting markets for months. My numbers show Michigan State with a grand total of two ATS covers in their last 11 ballgames, not exactly ‘bet-on’ material. Lastly, Michigan State has a reputation as a zone killer this year, hence the wiseguy support for Michigan State in early betting action on Sunday. They finished #5 in the country in three point shooting percentage. But in Tom Izzo’s only try in the last decade against Jim Boeheim’s 2-3 matchup zone was a 72-58 Michigan State loss on an neutral floor. And it’s not like the Spartans have been raining three’s of late, hitting just 34% from beyond the arc over their last five contests. Expect a battle, not a blowout! Take Syracuse. |
|||||||
03-17-18 | Houston +3 v. Michigan | Top | 63-64 | Win | 100 | 31 h 57 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Houston (#529) I could do this write-up in five words: “Houston is the real deal.” Frankly, this short pointspread clearly tells us that I’m not the only one with this opinion – the sharp $$ believes in Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars as well. Houston is 10-2 SU in their last dozen ballgames, including impressive wins over Cinci, Wichita State and San Diego State, among others, as well as a spread covering one point loss to the Bearcats in the AAC Championship Game. The AAC was no joke this year – it’s not like the Cougars aren’t battle tested; especially considering their non-conference slate that saw them knocking off Providence, Temple, Arkansas and Wake Forest, among others. Houston’s statistical profile is truly impressive, despite their relatively tough slate. The Cougars hit their free throws. They defend intensely, both on the perimeter and in the paint. Houston has low post size to bang with the Wolverines. They don’t turn the ball over on offense, and force turnovers in bunches on defense. They are an excellent three point shooting team as well; ‘bet-on’ in every sense of the word here in March. There’s more to the story than just my belief in the Cougars. Let’s start with Michigan’s power rating number. The Wolverines pulled off two ‘major’ upsets in the Big 10 Tournament, knocking off Michigan State and Purdue in back-2-back games. As a result of those two VERY late wins against quality foes, the Wolverines power ratings took a big jump upwards. The only problem with pricing Michigan higher now than before the Big 10 Tourney? Simple – the Wolverines were far more interested in a Big 10 Tourney title than their opponents were. Throw in a late, somewhat fraudulent cover against Montana in their Big Dance opener and suddenly, after an extended stretch as an undervalued commodity moneymaker, RIGHT NOW Michigan is an overvalued squad after going 9-1 ATS in their last ten games. The Wolverines public bandwagon is rather large these days. John Beilein has a tremendous track record as a tournament head coach, both in the Big Dance and in the Big 10 Tourney. But the results clearly show that when the Wolverines get knocked out of the tourney, they’re getting knocked out in the Saturday/Sunday games, not in the Thursday/Friday games where Beilein has extra time to prepare. Notre Dame beat ‘em in this spot in 2016; Kentucky did it on the second weekend of the tourney in 2014; and Houston is primed to do it on Saturday Night. Big Ticket: Take Houston. |
|||||||
03-17-18 | Ohio State +3.5 v. Gonzaga | 84-90 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Ohio State (#535) The betting markets have refused to accept Ohio State as a quality team for extended stretches this season. The Buckeyes aren’t here by accident. They beat Michigan, Michigan State and Purdue – the other three teams from the Big 10 that are going dancing this year. They’ve won nine games away from home, repeatedly proving to be the ‘tougher’ of the two teams in hostile environments. Look no further than their regular season finale win in OT at Indiana for a clear example. Even their first round win against South Dakota State showed that toughness – the Buckeyes survived and advanced despite a furious second half from the Jackrabbits. Ohio State has a low post stud with NBA upside in Keita Bates-Diop and multiple wings who bring it defensively – Chris Holtmann is a stellar defensive coach. I don’t anticipate the Zags getting many good looks in this one. Ohio State hits their free throws, a perfect 7-7 from the line in the final minute to get the cover on Thursday. They’ve got four double digit scorers, size at every position as well as elite level defensive and rebounding numbers; a team poised to survive and advance into the Sweet 16. I love the fact that the Zags handed an ugly blowout loss to the Buckeyes back in November; an 86-59 beatdown in Portland that remains Ohio State’s worst loss of the season. That’s a huge motivator for a tough team like the Buckeyes, and Ohio State is a MUCH more mature team now than they were in November. Gonzaga reached the national championship game last March, but their star point guard and their top two big men left in the offseason, a good notch or two down from a season ago. The Zags have been an overvalued commodity for months; riding a dismal 5-12 ATS run in their last 17 ballgames, never even sniffing a spread cover in their opener against NC Greensboro. I’m splitting my personal wager between the side and the moneyline in a game Ohio State is live to win. Take Ohio State. |
|||||||
03-17-18 | Seton Hall +4.5 v. Kansas | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 28 h 25 m | Show | |
Take Seton Hall (#527) Let me start with an extended excerpt from my write-up supporting Seton Hall in their tourney opener against NC State: “The Pirates have all the makings of a ‘bet-on’ team in the Big Dance this weekend. The Pirates bring four senior starters to the table, each of whom is making their third consecutive trip to the tourney. That quartet -- Khadeen Carrington, Angel Delgado, Desi Rodriguez and Ismael Sanogo – has combined for more than 13,600 minutes, 5400 points and 3000 rebounds in their respective careers. They’ve been the most successful group of recruits in the modern history of the Pirates program. And they’ve never won an NCAA Tournament game. “Seton Hall beat Villanova in the Big East Conference Tournament Final in 2016 to earn (at the time) a very rare tourney bid, but they lost to Gonzaga in their opener. Last year, it was a tight six point loss to Arkansas to open the Big Dance; a game that turned on a VERY controversial flagrant foul call in the final seconds of what was (at the time) a one point game. “Seton Hall played more than their fair share of lethargic basketball this year; biding their time for another chance on college basketball’s biggest stage. I’m not a believer in the Pirates statistical profile that is not elite – this team has been waiting around all year, prepping for this week. I expect them to be tough as nails; a VERY tough out in this tournament, and potentially a bet on team moving forward.” This is ‘moving forward’, and Kansas is very beatable even in a friendly venue in Wichita. The Jayhawks never truly gelled this season and the markets are white hot on this team after a 3-0 SU and ATS run through the Big 12 Tourney and a cover in their opening round game against Penn thanks to a late 14-6 closeout run. Closeout runs against the Pirates are significantly more difficult to come by……Take Seton Hall. |
|||||||
03-16-18 | New Mexico State +5 v. Clemson | 68-79 | Loss | -101 | 31 h 31 m | Show | |
Take New Mexico State (#891) New Mexico State reached the Big Dance last year but their defense didn’t hold up against a hot shooting Baylor squad. The Aggies led outright at halftime as 11.5 point underdogs but wore down late, eventually losing and failing to cover. That was then; this is now. With the core of last year’s squad returning, expect a different outcome this time around. The WAC stinks as a conference, so the Aggies made the decision to schedule tough in November and December. They certainly stood toe-to-toe with quality foes – beating Miami, Davidson and Illinois while losing by only five to USC; a Trojans team that I have power rated higher than Clemson. The Aggies played defense this year under first year head coach Chris Jans, something they didn’t do much of last season. Jans has emphasized defense and rebounding from Day 1, and it’s paid off – they finished the regular season ranked in the Top 5 NATIONALLY in defensive field goal percentage allowed and rebounding margin. This is a team filled with transfers from higher profile programs – ‘Junkyard Dogs’ as they call themselves. Star Zack Lofton washed out at Minnesota. Point guard AJ Harris transferred from Ohio State. The quotes speak volumes for this team. Another transfer, Shunn Buchanan, talking about the Aggies mentality: “We play scrappy and grind’. Coach Jans: “They like one another. We’ve been blessed that way. They’ve bonded well with a lot of guys of different backgrounds…..they bought into playing with that nasty type of attitude.” I’m not finding many positive quotes coming out of the Clemson locker room these days. Brad Brownell’s team went 15-1 SU at home this year. But since second leading scorer and rebounder Dante Grantham got hurt in late January; they’ve been mediocre at best. The Tigers stumbled down the stretch, losing five of their last eight thanks to an offense that just couldn’t find a way to get the biscuit into the basket – they were held in the 50’s in four of those five losses. Expect a grinder of a game here; the type of contest primed to go right down to the final possession. Take New Mexico State. |
|||||||
03-16-18 | Syracuse +4 v. TCU | 57-52 | Win | 101 | 30 h 58 m | Show | |
Take Syracuse (#875) Syracuse was clearly gassed down the stretch – Jim Boeheim’s team lacks quality depth, getting less than 17 points per game from anyone other than their ‘Big 3’. But that ‘Big 3’ is really, really good, arguably the three best players on the floor in this match-up; making the Orange an attractive underdog on Friday Night. Tyus Battle, Frank Howard and Oshae Brissett are three guys who rarely leave the floor even for a minute. After the brutal, physical ACC schedule, that trio was clearly worn down. But after a full week off, that trio was as rested and ready as they’d been in months in the Orange upset victory over Arizona State on Wednesday. The Orange were able to survive and advance on Wednesday despite a very rough shooting night from the free throw line; the exception to the rule for a team that connected from the charity stripe at a better than 73% clip this season. And the Orange zone defense is primed to give an ‘offensive execution’ team like the Horned Frogs fits on Friday Night. TCU lost their starting point guard when Jaylen Fisher got hurt back in Janaury. 6-1, 175 pound backup Alex Robinson has done well in his absence, but he’s got a real size problem against the Orange defenders, just like Arizona State’s guards had earlier in the week. TCU has one win away from home since January, and that win came against Big 12 bottom feeder Iowa State. Live dog here! Take Syracuse. |
|||||||
03-16-18 | Murray State v. West Virginia -10.5 | 68-85 | Win | 100 | 25 h 32 m | Show | |
Take West Virginia (#888) Murray State’s ‘best wins’ this year came against the likes of Illinois State, Wright State and Belmont, yet somehow, the Racers came away with a #51 RPI ranking, #58 according to KenPom. They faced only one ‘major’ opponent all year, and it came at home against Auburn, a game they lost at home. They also lost at home to Middle Tennessee in their other ‘toughest test’. West Virginia is better than both of those teams AND this game is in San Diego, a long, long way from the Racers home court. Against lower level competition, the Racers were able to cut off the passing lanes and force opponents into contested jump shots. They ranked among the Top 20 teams in the country in effective field goal percentage allowed on defense. Those numbers have certainly affected the pointspread for this game – Murray State is getting plenty of respect in the markets right now, but frankly, I’m not buying those advanced metric numbers one iota. Murray State’s primary ballhandlers are 6-0, 180 pound senior Jonathan Stark and 6-3 170 pound frosh Ja Morant. This is a problem – a BIG problem – against the West Virginia press, especially given the fact that the Racers don’t force many turnovers themselves; not a ‘ball pressure’ style of defense. West Virginia has been winning games by margin away from home all year. Murray St is 1-1 against tourney bound foes this year; West Virginia is 10-8, certainly a battle tested squad. They’ve been in the Big Dance every year; Murray State’s seniors are making their first trip. But most importantly, the matchups here work for the favorite, with big, physical senior studs Jevon Carter and Daxter Miles primed to wreak havoc on the Racers undersized backcourt duo, while Sagaba Konate and Esa Ahmad are primed to dominate the low post. Points worth laying. Take West Virginia |
|||||||
03-16-18 | Providence v. Texas A&M -2 | Top | 69-73 | Win | 100 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Texas A&M (#868) Providence is anything but fresh as they travel to Charlotte to take on Texas A&M. The Friars truly went ‘balls to the wall’ last weekend to nail down their bid, playing three OT games in three days against Creighton, Xavier and Villanova. For a team that lacks depth, I’m expecting some hangover effects from that intense effort; especially given the deflating aspect of the OT loss in the Big East Tourney Championship Game. Ed Cooley has four key cogs on his roster, a quartet who all average between 30 and 32 minutes per game. But Kyron Cartwright played 40+ minutes in all three games last week. So did Rodney Bullock. Both Jalen Lindsey and Alpha Diallo went 40+ in two of the three games. I’m not expecting the Friars to be able to match their intensity from the Big East Tourney, and they’re likely to have a very difficult time finding offense against a seriously undervalued A&M squad that offers real ‘bet-on’ potential moving forward. Here’s what Auburn head coach Bruce Pearl said about the Aggies just BEFORE Texas A&M pulled the outright upset over the Tigers on Auburn’s home floor: “This Texas A&M team was picked second or third [in the SEC]. Some people had them first….. They're big. They lead the SEC in rebounding and defense. It's great for our league that they're back and playing well. We know we're going to have our hands full on Wednesday." The Aggies were ranked as high as #5 in the country before the injury bug struck in January. They lost five straight games, then struggled to get everyone acclimated again once they got healthy. But things came together for Billy Kennedy’s squad down the stretch, notching wins over Kentucky, Auburn, Arkansas, Alabama and South Carolina, among others. They closed out the regular season with back-2-back road wins at Georgia and Vandy; proving once again that they can win away from home. But Texas A&M still hasn’t regained any sort of betting bandwagon – the type Providence has right now after three straight national TV covers last weekend. And after a one point loss in the rematch against ‘Bama – you remember Collin Sexton’s shot – in the SEC opener, the Aggies seem like a complete afterthought in the betting markets right now. Not for this bettor! Big Ticket: Take Texas A&M |
|||||||
03-15-18 | NC State v. Seton Hall -2.5 | 83-94 | Win | 100 | 25 h 48 m | Show | |
Take Seton Hall (#730) The Pirates have all the makings of a ‘bet-on’ team in the Big Dance this weekend. The Pirates bring four senior starters to the table, each of whom is making their third consecutive trip to the tourney. That quartet -- Khadeen Carrington, Angel Delgado, Desi Rodriguez and Ismael Sanogo – has combined for more than 13,600 minutes, 5400 points and 3000 rebounds in their respective careers. They’ve been the most successful group of recruits in the modern history of the Pirates program. And they’ve never won an NCAA Tournament game. Seton Hall beat Villanova in the Big East Conference Tournament Final in 2016 to earn (at the time) a very rare tourney bid, but they lost to Gonzaga in their opener. Last year, it was a tight six point loss to Arkansas to open the Big Dance; a game that turned on a VERY controversial flagrant foul call in the final seconds of what was (at the time) a one point game. Seton Hall played more than their fair share of lethargic basketball this year; biding their time for another chance on college basketball’s biggest stage. I’m not a believer in the Pirates statistical profile that is not elite – this team has been waiting around all year, prepping for this week. I expect them to be tough as nails; a VERY tough out in this tournament, and potentially a bet on team moving forward. Kevin Keatts did a remarkable job in his first season as the Wolfpack’s head coach; taking a sub .500 squad from last year that was projected to finish #13 in the conference and turning them into an NCAA Tournament team. But this team doesn’t come close to matching the Pirates experience and they have one HUGE weakness likely to doom them here. The Wolfpack are not a good rebounding team, ranked #307 in the country in defensive rebounding percentage. Seton Hall ranks among the Top 30 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage. That means we should expect plenty of second chance opportunities and easy putbacks for the Pirates, a difference maker in what is expected to be a tight game. I personally found a cheap price to back Seton Hall on the moneyline; and would recommend you do likewise with at least a portion of your wager! Take Seton Hall. |
|||||||
03-15-18 | South Dakota State v. Ohio State -7.5 | 73-81 | Win | 100 | 24 h 19 m | Show | |
Take Ohio State (#748) The betting markets have refused to accept Ohio State as a quality team for extended stretches this season. The Buckeyes aren’t here by accident. They beat Michigan, Michigan State and Purdue – the other three teams from the Big 10 that are going dancing this year. And they won eight games away from home, repeatedly proving to be the ‘tougher’ of the two teams in hostile environments. Look no further than their regular season finale win in OT at Indiana for a clear example. That’s a big issue for a team like South Dakota State; not known for physical play and not facing many physical teams in Summit League action. The Jackrabbits lost by 20 in their Big Dance opener last year to a fellow mid-major and lost the previous year to a very mediocre Maryland team; not a squad known for stepping up in class particularly well once March rolls around. South Dakota State runs a two man show – the low post stud, Mike Daum and the perimeter stud, David Jenkins. Ohio State has a low post stud with NBA upside in Keita Bates-Diop and multiple wings who bring it defensively – Chris Holtmann is a stellar defensive coach. I don’t anticipate the Jackrabbits getting many good looks in this one. With four double digit scorers, size edges at nearly every position, elite level defensive and rebounding numbers and solid free throw shooting, the Buckeyes are primed to survive and advance in a game I expect them to win by margin. Fade the ‘public’ underdog! Take Ohio State. |
|||||||
03-15-18 | Oklahoma +2 v. Rhode Island | 78-83 | Loss | -102 | 21 h 34 m | Show | |
Take Oklahoma (#723) To say there’s no betting bandwagon supporting Oklahoma is something of an understatement right now. A team that was as high as #4 in the polls in December and January is now an underdog on a neutral floor to Rhode Island. This team was laying points to Kansas. They were road favorites at Alabama. Now they’re catching points from an inferior foe. How did that happen? Simple – the Sooners really struggled down the stretch, entering the Big Dance on a dismal 3-12 SU, 3-12 ATS run – there’s no bandwagon with that kind of track record! But make no mistake about it – the Big 12 was positively brutal this year, and the Sooners did not fare well in second looks against opposing defenses. Rhode Island has no second look. The fact that Oklahoma has only played once in the last two weeks certainly works in their favor, a team that was legitimately worn down by the end of the regular season. And the fact that the Sooners will have the best player on the floor in Trae Young certainly doesn’t hurt matters in a game that’s expected to be tight down the stretch. This was not a banner year in the A-10, to put it mildly, yet even against that lesser level of competition, Rhode Island was unable to dominate; just 4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS in their last eight ballgames. They’ve been struggling from the free throw line, and their defensive numbers have taken a tumble in recent weeks; a clear sign of a team wearing down late in the campaign. But unlike the Sooners who got bounced early from the Big 12 Tourney, URI made a run to the A-10 Final; a grueling three day stretch that didn’t end until the hours before the selection show last Sunday. Don’t be shocked in the slightest if the Rams wear down late here against a fresher, more talented foe in the tourney tip-off on Thursday. Take Oklahoma. |
|||||||
03-14-18 | Heat -6.5 v. Kings | 119-123 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#605) Handicapping the Sacramento Kings is all about handicapping their opponent these days. The Kings tend to be ‘live’ underdogs against quality foes who don’t take them seriously; knowing they can just turn it on in the fourth quarter to beat Sacramento. In fact, my clients and I cashed a winning bet ON Sacramento as double digit underdogs in OKC earlier in the week using that exact thought process – the Thunder sleptwalked for much of the game before making a run in the fourth. In addition, the Kings hit a good handful of tough shots down the stretch to stay under the number. That was Monday; this is Wednesday. Now Sacramento is a single digit dog at home, as opposed to a double digit dog on the highway; a big difference. And this time around, the Kings are facing a particularly motivated foe. That does not bode well for the underdog. The Kings stole a win in Miami back in January, rallying from 12 down in the fourth quarter to win on a missed shot putback with three seconds remaining. That snapped a Heat winning streak against the Kings that dated back to 2013! Plus, Miami is coming off their worst game in weeks, blasted at Portland in a no-show loss on Monday. Heat point guard Goran Dragic, talking about the importance of tonight’s game: "It's going to be important, because we didn't start the road trip well. They are going to play with basically nothing to lose. They're already out." The Heat have lost eight straight on the highway. All but one of those losses came to playoff bound foes. The first seven of those losses were all tight games decided by six points or less, prior to the loss at Portland on Monday. In a ‘circle-the-wagons’ spot, expect Miami to snap that road losing streak by margin tonight, with ample room to spare. Take the Heat. |
|||||||
03-14-18 | Arizona State v. Syracuse +2 | 56-60 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Take Syracuse (#612) This was not a great year for West Coast basketball, as clearly evidenced by the fact that the second place team in the PAC-12 didn’t get into the Big Dance and the third place team just lost their ‘Play-In’ game to St Bonaventure last night. Yet Arizona State remains a popular wiseguy choice for Wednesday Night in Dayton; with the sharp $$ showing for the Sun Devils. I’m not buying that Arizona State is better than Syracuse, on any floor. The Sun Devils face a size disadvantage at every position. Against a man-to-man defense, it would be a problem. Against Jim Boeheim’s legendary ‘matchup zone’ defense, it’s a nightmare, because the Arizona State guards won’t be able to get clean looks from three point range. The results don’t lie. Arizona State has played one game against a similar defense this season, when they travelled to Washington. The Sun Devils lost SU and ATS in that contest, finishing with their single lowest point total of the season. And when we talk about late season collapses, the Sun Devils really stand out! Their ONLY win in the last MONTH came at home against bottom feeder Cal; just 1-5 SU in their last six ballgames. Syracuse was clearly gassed down the stretch – Jim Boeheim’s team lacks quality depth. But the Orange will have the best three players on the floor tonight in Tyus Battle, Frank Howard and Oshae Brissett; three guys who rarely leave the floor even for a minute. After the brutal, physical ACC schedule, that trio was clearly worn down. But now, after a full week off, that trio is likely to be as rested and ready as they’ve been in months. Wrong team favored……Take Syracuse. |
|||||||
03-14-18 | Nebraska +4 v. Mississippi State | 59-66 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
Take Nebraska (#619) Nebraska was a legitimate ‘meal ticket’ for my clients and I for an extended stretch this season. We went 7-1 ATS backing the Cornhuskers in Big 10 action where they were successful in every role – at home, on the road, laying points and taking points. And yet here we are in March, and the Huskers are STILL something of an undervalued commodity. Nebraska won SU in Starkville in an exhibition game against Mississippi State back in October – they’ve played and won on this court against this team this year, even though that game isn’t going to show up in any databases because it was an ‘exhibition charity game’ for Hurricane Irma relief. That started a trend for Tim Miles squad – they’ve quite literally hung tough in almost every road game since; 8-1 ATS in their last nine on the highway. Nebraska is rested and ready. The Big 10 Tourney finished a week early; the Huskers weren’t expecting a Big Dance bid, and this team is primed to win a game or two (or three or four) in the NIT. Mississippi State was hoping for a Dance bid that never came. Their students are on spring break this week – don’t expect a particularly raucous home crowd this evening. Second leading scorer Nick Weatherspoon is out tonight – he hasn’t missed a game all year, and his absence is likely to be felt. Bulldogs guard Lamar Peters: “Nick going down is going to hurt. He brings a lot of energy, is a defensive guy and a great team player.” None of these are good signs for the home favorite……Take Nebraska. |
|||||||
03-13-18 | Pistons v. Jazz -8.5 | 79-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
Take Utah (#538) It’s not hard to make a case for betting AGAINST the Pistons against strong defensive foes, because the Pistons offense is struggling mightily in recent weeks. Detroit has fallen all the way to #23 in the season long offensive efficiency charts – one spot ahead of the hapless Knicks, and it’s not getting any better here in March. Detroit’s last road win came on January 10th; yet to win a single road contest with Blake Griffin in a Pistons uniform. They’ve lost to bad teams: Chicago, Orlando and Atlanta certainly stand out in that regard, because the Pistons were favored in all three contests. And when the Pistons have tried to step up in class on the highway, it’s been downright ugly – all five road losses since the All Star Break have come by nine points or more, including a 29 point loss at Toronto, the best defensive team of the bunch. Utah is rolling again, winners of six straight (5-1 ATS). Their defense has been positively stifling since Rudy Gobert returned from his injury; allowing just 86 points per game on 39% shooting over their last five contests. And if this isn’t a ‘bet-on’ quote from head coach Quin Snyder following their come-from-behind win at New Orleans on Wednesday, I don’t know what is! Snyder: “It's not just that they're playing with each other, they're playing for each other. In that third quarter when we were down by nine, I thought you saw some character from our group." I haven’t seen a similar quote about the Pistons in many moons…..Take the Jazz |
|||||||
03-13-18 | Northern Kentucky +8 v. Louisville | 58-66 | Push | 0 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Take Northern Kentucky (#547) The first round of the NIT offers some unique opportunities. Season long power ratings ensure that a team like Louisville will be significant home favorites over a team like Northern Kentucky – there is a talent differential here. But from a motivational standpoint, this is not a spot where we can expect much from the home team, while this road underdog is primed to bring their ‘A’ game. Louisville has had less than 48 hours to shake off the disappointment from not getting a bid to the Big Dance. Their students are on Spring Break, leaving the Yum Center every bit as lethargic as the Cardinals team is. It’s like not Louisville heads into this game feeling good about themselves --- they’ve lost five of their last seven overall; a crushing late season collapse. And Louisville certainly isn’t playing shutdown defense these days, bad news in this pointspread range. Northern Kentucky gets an easy travel situation compared to most NIT teams; needing only a 90 minute bus ride to get a chance to face a particularly motivating foe. Let’s not forget that Northern Kentucky has a pair of starters from Louisville; one of whom transferred out after last year. The Norse have proven their mettle in hostile road environments all year; with a strong track record on the highway and a 100% perfect ATS mark as underdogs of +5 or higher; hanging tough at Texas A&M and Vermont while winning outright at Oakland. Live dog here! Take Northern Kentucky. |
|||||||
03-12-18 | Kings +12.5 v. Thunder | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Take Sacramento (#503) To say that the Oklahoma City Thunder have been poor favorites is something of an understatement. The numbers do not lie. OKC has been favored by -6 or higher on 29 previous occasions this season. They have covered a grand total of nine of those pointspreads; just 9-20 ATS in this role. To say that OKC struggles to ‘get up’ for games against the Kings would be something of an understatement as well. The Thunder have faced Sacramento on three previous occasions this season; laying -8, -12 and -10.5 in those ballgames. The Kings covered all three pointspreads with room to spare, with the three games decided by a cumulative margin of just two points. Sacramento went into the All Star Break as competitive underdogs; 7-2 ATS in their last nine tries catching more than five points. Since the break they’ve covered against Utah and OKC in this same role. Sacramento’s young tandem of DeAaron Fox and Willie Cauley Stein are true building blocks, with Cauley Stein back in the lineup following a brief absence. That’s bad news for OKC, with their starting center Stephen Adams likely to miss tonight’s contest. The Kings are relatively fresh for the second of back-2-backs after a shoddy showing in Denver last night. Dave Joerger emptied the bench in the blowout loss, with ten players seeing at least 13 minutes of playing time and nobody getting more than 30. And with the likes of Vince Carter and Zack Randolph still getting plenty of playing time, there’s no shortage of veteran leadership for this squad right now. OKC has another game against a bottom feeder tomorrow, at Atlanta. No surprise here if the Thunder look a notch or two sluggish and lethargic this evening as Billy Donovan tries to manage their minutes; a poor choice as double digit chalk. Take the Kings. |
|||||||
03-11-18 | Bulls v. Hawks -2.5 | 129-122 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta (#804) I’m not prone to get involved laying points with lottery bound squads against other lottery bound squads unless the situation really stands out. This is one such situation. The Hawks are tanking, but they haven’t pulled the plug the way the Bulls have done. Head coach Mike Budenholzer: “I think we’ve been a mix of young and veteran guys all year. I think the way we progressed through the season — of course when you start the season you think it could be a little different — (but) right now but I think the way we’ve played, and the way we continue to play, won’t be that much different.” That stands in sharp contrast with what’s going on in Chicago right now, where there is no continuity whatsoever. Veterans Robin Lopez and Justin Holiday started and played the first quarter of Chicago’s loss at Detroit on Friday after the NBA league office had a discussion with management about the ‘official’ tanking rules. That duo didn’t see the court again following the first quarter. Read between the lines of this quote from Lopez: “It was a little different. I enjoy new situations. You get to work on something you haven't done before. You have to value those minutes so I can help my teammates as efficiently as I can.” The Bulls are 0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS on the road since the All Star Break, losing every game by 15 points or more. Their last pointspread cover on the road came back on January 22nd – when they still had Nikola Mirotic draining three pointers; 0-8 SU & ATS since that game. This is NOT a squad to back in this pointspread range on the highway. Hawks head coach Mike Budenholzer was not amused by his team’s effort in an ugly loss at Indiana on Friday: "(Indiana) started well and we didn't. But I thought it was 48 minutes of that." Expect a solid rebound today. Take the Hawks. |
|||||||
03-11-18 | Kentucky +2 v. Tennessee | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 1 h 11 m | Show | |
Take Kentucky (#823) I’m going to keep this write-up short and sweet. I don’t think the Vols can sweep the Wildcats in all three meetings. They’ll have the crowd support today, so crucial in these high energy ‘three games in three days’ settings. They have more talent – let’s not forget that Kentucky was a Top 5 team coming into the season while Tennessee was projected to finish #13 out of a 14 team conference. Yes, the Vols have exceeded all expectations, and yes, the Wildcats have, at times, been a major disappointment. But there’s no question that the team with elite talent is peaking at the right time, now 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven ballgames. And this quote from John Calipari stands out from after the first meeting between these two teams; a game that closed on a 47-28 Vols run-out in the second half. "They out-toughed us. They just threw us around. It was embarrassing. As soon as we had PJ (Washington) out of the game, we had no shot at winning because every one of their players at that point was tougher than our guys…They just got manhandled by men. We couldn't grab a rebound. We got shoved out of the way on post-ups…..And then the start of the second half. I mean, we were literally standing with cheerleaders on a bunch of shots. Shot went up, I got a guy standing next to the cheerleaders. It just got too physical. The bump and grind, we couldn't deal with it.” I’m not expecting a repeat effort in a game that the Wildcats are primed to win in SU fashion. Take Kentucky. |
|||||||
03-10-18 | North Carolina v. Virginia -3.5 | 63-71 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Take Virginia (#540) There was nothing fraudulent about Virginia’s 61-49 win over North Carolina when these two teams met back in January. The Tar Heels offense was stuck in the mud all game against Tony Bennett’s Pack-Line defense; one of only three games all season in which North Carolina didn’t reach at least 69 points; held more than 33 points below their season average on just 33% shooting from the floor. North Carolina committed 19 turnovers while making only 16 shots, a truly ugly ratio. This isn’t new or different. In the previous meeting back in 2017, Virginia won 53-43, once again holding the Tar Heels to their lowest point total of the season by a wide margin; a 35% shooting effort from Roy Williams squad. So what should we expect will be different today? Absolutely nothing! The Tar Heels offense was stuck in the mud down the stretch last night against Duke, already showing signs of fatigue in this grueling tournament setting. They closed out the game 0-8 from the floor with six turnovers over the last 5+ minutes of action. Point guard Joel Berry is in a nasty shooting slump, just 12-45 from the floor in his last four ballgames; now playing for the fourth time in four nights. These are clearly not positive signs against the best defense in the country. No, Virginia isn’t pretty to watch offensively, although they have been an excellent three point shooting team this season, hitting just shy of 39% from beyond the arc. But the Cavaliers defense is truly a thing of beauty – not just the best defense in the country this year, but the best defense of the last DECADE based on a points per possession basis. The betting markets have undervalued Virginia from Day 1 this season. They’re 11-1 ATS as short favorites of -7 or less, absolutely dominating ATS in this role. Take Virginia. |
|||||||
03-10-18 | San Diego State -4.5 v. New Mexico | Top | 82-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take San Diego State (#533) There are three basic elements in play here. First, New Mexico is a great bet against teams that turn the ball over. Against teams that don’t turn it over and force the Lobos into a halfcourt game, New Mexico has repeatedly and routinely struggled. San Diego State has committed less than ten turnovers per game over their last five contests and the Lobos pressure created only 12 takeaways against the Aztecs in Albuquerque last month. For New Mexico to win tonight, they’ll have to execute their half court sets against a quality defense. I’m not convinced that’s going to go well. Second, San Diego State is a ‘mission’ team right now, ‘bet-on’ all the way. Aztecs senior leader Malik Pope was briefly suspended in late February after being accused of taking $1400 from an agent, missing one game before being reinstated. When he came back, it gave the team a major jolt of positive energy – the quotes coming out of this locker room were uniformly positive. San Diego State is 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS since; all four wins and covers coming against Mountain West heavyweights, not bottom feeders. Third, New Mexico is really up against it when it comes to the scheduling spot here. The Lobos didn’t clear out of the Thomas & Mack last night until after midnight Pacific Time. This afternoon local tip – thanks to the TV network demands – won’t help their tired legs as this game wears on. Only one Aztecs starter – Devin Watson – played more than 29 minutes last night, and all five starters finished in double digits. I expect San Diego State to be a notch or two ‘fresher’ this evening; a difference maker in this pointspread range. Points worth laying! Big Ticket: Take San Diego State. |
|||||||
03-09-18 | Utah State v. New Mexico -3.5 | 68-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
Take New Mexico (#876) New Mexico has four legitimate edges tonight. First, the Lobos pressure is primed to create turnovers in bunches against a Utah State team that doesn’t handle the basketball particularly well. For the season, away from home, Utah State has an 0.82 assist-to-turnover ratio. In the most recent meeting between these two teams, Utah State shot 51% from the floor and 50% (10 of 20) from three point range. The two teams were even on the boards. Yet New Mexico won by 15, running the Aggies out of the gym, thanks to a whopping 23 Aggies turnovers. Utah State’s tired legs off last night’s bruising, down-to-the-wire battle with Boise won’t help matters for their ability to avoid turnovers tonight. Secondly, New Mexico is the best three point shooting team in the conference; taking and making more shots from downtown than anyone else in the Mountain West. Anthony Mathis, Antino Jackson, Makuach Maluach, Chris McNeal, Try Simons and Dane Kuiper are all legit gunslingers from downtown; bad news for a Utah State defense that has not been shutting teams down from beyond the arc. Utah State won last night because of a 14-25 shooting effort from three point range. With tired legs today, I expect the Aggies to regress to the mean (if not worse), a 34% three point shooting team for the season. Third, the Lobos travel well to the Mountain West Conference Tournament. Utah State does not. Even though it’s being played on a neutral court here in Vegas, New Mexico has a legitimate crowd edge in this tourney on this floor. And lastly, the Lobos have far more quality depth than the Aggies, a huge difference maker in these short-turnaround tourney games. Utah State goes only eight deep. Sam Merril and Koby McEwen played 77 of a possible 80 minutes last night. The Lobos go nine deep and nobody on the team played more than 31 minutes last night. In essence, Tim Duryea was putting all his chips on the table to get a single win last night, while Paul Weir was playing the long game, keeping New Mexico relatively fresh for an extended tourney run. Lay the points! Take New Mexico. |
|||||||
03-09-18 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech +2 | Top | 66-63 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Texas Tech (#872) The Red Raiders gave us a little gut punch last night with poor execution in the final minute costing us a Big Ticket wager. That being said, my basic premise of Texas Tech as a ‘bet-on’ team primed to make a run in this tourney was spot on. Let me start with an extended excerpt from yesterdays’ write-up: “With all hands back on deck, Texas Tech is an undervalued commodity right now; a team primed to make a deep run in the Big 12 Tourney this weekend. Let’s not forget that the Red Raiders were 22-4 & ranked in the Top 10 when the injury bug struck. Senior point guard Keenan Evans suffered a toe injury and missed five games. Senior forward Zack Smith also missed extended time. Senior wing Justin Gray missed a pair of games during that skid as well. “All of those guys are healthy now. Evans looked 100%, scoring 23 points in 26 minutes in a much needed win over TCU last Saturday, snapping their skid. Gray and Smith combined for 39 minutes of action, and both guys have been practicing with their teammates all week. That gives the Red Raiders their full depth, with Chris Beard’s rotation going ten deep these days, optimal for conference tourney success. “How did unheralded Texas Tech rise up into the Top 10? Defense stands out. The Red Raiders are one of only two teams in the country who rank in the Top 15 in both effective field goal percentage allowed on defense and turnovers forced on defense. When you are pressuring opposing shooters AND forcing turnovers in bunches, you win games and cover pointspreads – period. And this is a STRONG bet-on quote from Chris Beard, just signed to a long term extension in Lubbock: “Anything you want in life, kind of like basketball, I think you have to have a plan for what you want. So we’d like to have a good March. Our plan is pretty specific. And one of the parts of our plan is we want to try to have more fun than anybody in college basketball this month. So, led by our seniors, we’re going to try to enjoy every moment. That’s what March is. I’m glad our guys are having fun.” West Virginia had a relatively easy ride against Baylor yesterday, forcing 20 Bears turnovers. That’s not likely to happen today against the Red Raiders. When Texas Tech beat West Virginia in January, they handled the Mountaineer ball pressure just fine, committing only 12 turnovers. Even with the injuries, West Virginia only forced 13 turnovers in the rematch in Morgantown. When Bob Huggins’ squad isn’t forcing turnovers in bunches, they’re struggling to win. It’s surely worth noting that three of the last four meetings between these squads were decided by a single point or in OT. Take the points; expect the outright upset. Big Ticket: Take Texas Tech |
|||||||
03-09-18 | St. Louis +8 v. Davidson | 60-78 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
Take St Louis (#835) The concept here is simple – it’s really hard to build margins against ‘slow everything to a crawl’ team like the St Louis Billikens. Travis Ford’s squad ha a grand total of ONE loss by more than eight points since the calendar turned to 2018; a span of 17 games. They’ve been true, under-the-radar ATS machines; 16-6 against the spread in their last 22 ballgames and still there’s no Billikens bandwagon building; a team that continues to offer legitimate ‘value’ for their backers. Davidson never sniffed a pointspread cover in the first meeting between these two teams, a 54-51 grinder that the Wildcats never led by more than the three point final margin of victory. And St Louis has legitimate momentum; rallying back from a big halftime deficit to knock off George Washington yesterday; a ‘bet-on’ squad as underdogs against a Davidson team that’s been sitting around all week. Live, feisty dog here! Take St Louis. |
|||||||
03-09-18 | Knicks v. Bucks UNDER 214 | 112-120 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
Take New York – Milwaukee UNDER (#807-808) Here’s the quote from Knicks head coach Jeff Hornacek, explaining to the media about how the Knicks aren’t ‘really’ tanking: "We're trying to evaluate our three young point guards. Moving forward, we got to make decisions on those guys. We have to play them as many minutes as possible. Jarrett has done a great job for us this year. But we're at the point of the season we need to take a look at those guys and give them bigger minutes. It's hard to judge them on five minutes here and there." To call the Knicks point guard play right now ‘atrocious’ would not be an overstatement. Newly acquired Emmanuel Mudiay, underachieving Trey Burke and Belgian rookie Frank Ntilikina are all getting time to show what they can and can’t do. In their 111-87 loss to Portland earlier in the week, that trio combined to shoot 5-28. The starter – Mudiay – committed six turnovers with his four assists. Look for the Knicks to struggle to reach the century mark once again this evening. It’s not like Milwaukee is lighting up the scoreboard these days either! The Bucks have been an Under machine in recent weeks: 5-1 to the Under in their last six ballgames, with four of the five Unders cashing by double digit margins. The Bucks have point guard issues as well, with key reserves Matthew Dellavedova and Malcolm Brogdon both sitting out with injuries. Heck, the ancient Jason Terry just got 30 minutes of playing time in their loss to Houston earlier in the week! I’m not expecting the offensive efficiency for either squad to impress anyone tonight! Take the Under. |
|||||||
03-09-18 | Providence +8 v. Xavier | 75-72 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
Take Providence (#857) Providence returned every starter from last year’s NCAA Tournament squad. As we saw yesterday in their impressive SU win over Creighton, the Friars are a team that is capable of ‘flipping the switch’ in the Big East tourney after a sluggish finish to the regular season. The Friars won yesterday for one reason and one reason only – heart. They wanted it more. Providence didn’t shoot well, hitting under 37% from the floor; just 5-22 from three point range. They missed a dozen free throws, connecting at only a 61% clip. Yet they won outright as an underdog thanks to tenacious defense and fierce rebounding, particularly on the offensive glass. It was clearly a ‘we can compete with anybody’ type of performance, surviving and advancing off that putrid shooting effort. Providence has certainly shown they can compete with Xavier: 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS in the three meetings between these two squads over the last two seasons. And, quite frankly, this Xavier team is a notch or two overrated – they’re not the third best team in the country, where the rankings have them as of today. The Musketeers defensive intensity has been noticeably lacking down the stretch: 48% shooting allowed in their last five contests. Nor is this their ATS sweet spot. Xavier has been an excellent pointspread team for most of the season, but as bigger favorites -- say -7.5 to -14.5 – Chris Mack’s squad is 0-5 ATS, unable to get the requisite stops they need to cover inflated numbers. Expect a tight one! Take Providence |
|||||||
03-08-18 | Notre Dame v. Duke UNDER 144 | 70-88 | Loss | -111 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
Take Duke – Notre Dame UNDER (#665-666) I’m going to keep this write-up short and sweet. Coach K spent a good portion of the season making adjustments to the Blue Devils defense. He finally settled on a 2-3 zone when Marvin Bagley Jr got hurt. Since going exclusively to that 2-3 zone, Duke’s games haven’t just been cashing Under bets – they’ve been cashing Under bets by HUGE margins. The results do not lie. Duke has played their last six games using this zone defense almost exclusively. Those games have gone 6-0 to the Under, by HUGE margins: 37 points, 22, 16.5, 39, 26.5 and 21 points – none of them were even close. Facing a Notre Dame team with tired legs – don’t expect those Irish jumpers to be falling like rain tonight – let’s ride this Under-the-Radar Under trend one more time! Take the Under. |
|||||||
03-08-18 | Texas v. Texas Tech -6.5 | Top | 69-73 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Texas Tech (#706) With all hands back on deck, Texas Tech is an undervalued commodity right now; a team primed to make a deep run in the Big 12 Tourney this weekend. Let’s not forget that the Red Raiders were 22-4 & ranked in the Top 10 when the injury bug struck. Senior point guard Keenan Evans suffered a toe injury and missed five games. Senior forward Zack Smith also missed extended time. Senior wing Justin Gray missed a pair of games during that skid as well. All three of those guys are healthy now. Evans looked 100%, scoring 23 points in 26 minutes in a much needed win over TCU last Saturday, snapping their skid. Gray and Smith combined for 39 minutes of action, and both guys have been practicing with their teammates all week. That gives the Red Raiders their full depth, with Chris Beard’s rotation going ten deep these days, optimal for conference tourney success. How did unheralded Texas Tech rise up into the Top 10? Defense stands out. The Red Raiders are one of only two teams in the country who rank in the Top 15 in both effective field goal percentage allowed on defense and turnovers forced on defense. When you are pressuring opposing shooters AND forcing turnovers in bunches, you win games and cover pointspreads – period. That’s bad news for Texas tonight, on multiple fronts. The Longhorns aren’t expected to have their low post stud, Mohammed Bamba, available, as he’s dealing with a toe injury. Bamba is a difference maker: 13.0 points, 10.6 rebounds and 3.8 blocks per game. That leaves Shaka Smart with precious few options in the low post tonight for a team that is basically down to a six man rotation – depth is a HUGE concern for the Longhorns both tonight and moving forward. And the Longhorns weren’t exactly lighting it up away from home eve BEFORE the Bamba injury. They lost by double digits at Kansas, Kansas State, TCU and West Virginia down the stretch. And this is a STRONG bet-on quote from Chris Beard, just signed to a long term extension in Lubbock: “Anything you want in life, kind of like basketball, I think you have to have a plan for what you want. So we’d like to have a good March. Our plan is pretty specific. And one of the parts of our plan is we want to try to have more fun than anybody in college basketball this month. So, led by our seniors, we’re going to try to enjoy every moment. That’s what March is. I’m glad our guys are having fun.” Take the senior laden team tonight against the squad with no senior contributors. Big Ticket: Take Texas Tech |
|||||||
03-08-18 | UNLV v. Nevada -5 | 74-79 | Push | 0 | 3 h 54 m | Show | |
Take Nevada (#718) (abbreviated write-up for the early start game) There’s plenty to dislike about UNLV right now; a team that has been an ATS disaster area for months: 5-16-1 against the spread in their last 22 ballgames. The Rebels closed out the regular season by losing five straight games, leading head coach Marvin Menzies to question his team’s confidence level moving forward. Four of those games were ugly double digit blowouts. Disturbingly, at no point in the second half of ANY of those blowout losses did the Rebels put together a serious run – they just tucked in their tails and quit. The Rebels needed OT yesterday just to get out of the first round as double digit favorites against Air Force, and four of their five starters played 36+ minutes in that game – the Rebels won’t be fully fresh today for this early start game. Nevada will be, and the Wolfpack aren’t likely to take it easy against their in-state rivals. Nevada just beat UNLV 101-75 right here at the Thomas & Mack last week. They won on this floor 94-58 last year as well. Nevada is the class of this conference, primed to show it again today! Take Nevada. |
|||||||
03-08-18 | Providence +4 v. Creighton | 72-68 | Win | 100 | 2 h 24 m | Show | |
Take Providence (#695) (abbreviated write-up for the early start game) To say that Creighton isn’t playing any defense on away from home is something of an understatement. The results don’t lie. In Big East road games, the Bluejays allowed 93 to Butler, 75 to offensively challenged DePaul, 98 to Villanova, 85 to Providence, 92 to Xavier, 90 to Seton Hall and 85 to Marquette just last weekend. For the season, Creighton has allowed 49% shooting on the highway, 42% from three point range. For all the Bluejays offensive firepower – and they have plenty – they’ve been a losing ATS team all season because they’re not getting stops! Providence returned every starter from last year’s NCAA Tournament squad; a team that is capable of ‘flipping the switch’ in the Big East tourney after a sluggish finish to the regular season. They beat Creighton by 14 when these teams last met in January; dominating the glass while shooting a remarkable 62.5% from two point range in that contest, getting one good look after the next. After getting bounced by Creighton in the first round of this tourney last year, don’t be shocked in the slightest if the Friars get their revenge today! Take Providence! |
|||||||
03-07-18 | Pelicans -5.5 v. Kings | 114-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
Take New Orleans (#569) My clients and I have cashed four winners betting on the Pelicans over the past week+, part of New Orleans current 9-0 SU, 8-1 ATS hot streak. Let me start with an excerpt from my pro- Pelicans write-up from their outright upset win against the Clippers in LA last night. Numbers have been edited slightly to reflect current realities: “The Pelicans are playing their best basketball of the season right now: nine straight wins, three of them coming in tight OT affairs; a team that has finally learned how to close out tight games. They’ve played excellent basketball with consistency away from home; including SU wins at Utah, San Antonio, Boston, New York, Charlotte, OKC, Brooklyn, Milwaukee, Dallas, LA and Detroit since the calendar turned to 2018”. The Pelicans are physically fresh for the second night of back-2-backs. They’ve played only two games in March, one of which was an easy blowout at Dallas. In their last try on the second of back-2-backs, off a grueling OT win at Milwaukee, Alvin Gentry’s squad still had enough left in the tank to win and cover against bottom feeder Phoenix the next night. In their previous try, they won by double digits at Brooklyn. Gentry managed his minutes well last night – three guys off the bench went 24+ minutes – leaving them relatively fresh tonight. Sacramento won’t have Willie Cauley Stein available this evening, bad news in a matchup against the red hot Anthony Davis. The Kings are coming off a rare win, beating the Knicks over the weekend. That’s bad news here – Sacramento is a truly woeful 3-16 SU, 7-12 ATS coming off a victory – they’ve covered only three pointspreads at home ALL YEAR in this role. Ride the hot; fade the bad. Take the Pelicans. |
|||||||
03-07-18 | Ole Miss v. South Carolina -2.5 | 84-85 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
Take South Carolina (#624) To say that it’s been a rough season for Ole Miss is something of an understatement. Coming off three consecutive 20+ win seasons, Andy Kennedy felt good about his chances in the SEC, and the Rebels got off to a disappointing, but not disastrous 10-7 start. Then the bottom dropped out. The Rebels have lost three straight and 12 of their last 14. Andy Kennedy quit/resigned/got fired, leaving interim head coach Tony Madlock in charge of the program. It has not gone well, as clearly evidenced by Mississippi’s current 1-10 SU and ATS run under his tutelage. I looked hard, and did not find any ‘let’s pull together and go on an SEC tourney run to salvage our season’ quotes emanating from the Rebels locker room. This should be Madlock’s last game as the Ole Miss head coach. South Carolina went to the Final 4 last year. Sure, they suffered major graduation losses, but that’s the type of upside Frank Martin’s team brings to the table. With veteran leaders Chris Silva, Wesley Myers, Frank Booker and Hassani Gravett – all juniors and seniors – leading the way, the Gamecocks covered six straight down the stretch following an ugly midseason slump. Ole Miss won the only regular season meeting between these teams, back when Kennedy was still in charge in large part due to a big edge at the free throw line. But the Rebels aren’t getting to the line these days, a beaten down team that is quite comfortable settling for perimeter jumpers. That’s not likely to be a winning strategy against an elite defensive foe like the Gamecocks. Take South Carolina. |
|||||||
03-07-18 | Oregon State -2 v. Washington | 69-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
Take Oregon State (#601) I watched both meetings between these two schools this year; each of which was extremely tight – one going into double OT, the other in doubt into the final minute of regulation. After watching both of those games it’s clear to me that the Beavers have the edge in tonight’s rubber match. The Beavers have two significant things working in their favor. First, experience matters in these settings. Oregon State is led by juniors and seniors ; a team that has played effectively in this venue before – the Beavers have covered their PAC-12 Tourney opener in each of the last two seasons, including a SU win and cover over Arizona State. Washington cannot match their experience, with true frosh Jaylen Nowell their leading scorer. Second, Oregon State can hit shots against a zone defense. Washington’s first year head coach Mike Hopkins created all kinds of trouble in his first go-round against PAC-12 foes after installing the legendary Jim Boeheim 2-3 matchup zone with the Huskies. But the better jump shooting teams are shooting right over that zone right now, as clearly evidenced by the fact that Washington has allowed 38% shooting from beyond the arc in their last five games; a stretch that included a Cal brick-fest against them. Oregon State went 5-27 last year. A win tonight gives them a winning record in 2018. Coming off a huge blowout away from home at Wazzou last weekend, look for the Beavers to keep that momentum rolling tonight. It’s Tinkle Time! Take Oregon State. |
|||||||
03-07-18 | Fordham v. George Washington OVER 130.5 | 72-78 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Take George Washington – Fordham OVER (#607-608) The early $$ came pouring in on the Under for this matchup and it’s easy to understand why. George Washington’s season long stats don’t mean a whole lot. The Colonials changed their stripes completely at the start of February, when frosh Justin Mazzula took over the starting point guard role. George Washington was not a ‘push the pace’ team in November, December or January; leaving the Colonials with some very misleading season long numbers. Since Mazzula took over at the point, they’ve hung 78+ in five of their last eight games, playing at a much faster pace. Remember -- GW didn’t score more than 73 in a 17 game early season stretch; an inept offense that couldn’t do much of anything. That was then, this is now. As is often the case when a team makes a mid-season morph, the betting markets have struggled to keep up with the Colonials changing pac. They’ve been an Over team of late: 9-5 to the Over in their last 14 ballgames. Their last Under came against the same Fordham team they’ll face today, and the Under came entirely due to Fordham’s poor offense: 33% shooting for the game, including a dismal 5-26 from three point range. It’s certainly not like GW is an elite defensive team – no reason to expect another miserable shooting effort from the underdog here. And with Fordham letting go of the rope completely on defense of late – allowing a truly ugly 57% shooting in their last five games – there’s ample reason to believe that this game gets Over the total; a relatively high scoring affair. It’s also worth noting that both of these teams connect from the free throw line at a 70%+ clip. Take the Over. |
|||||||
03-06-18 | Pelicans +2.5 v. Clippers | 121-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Take New Orleans (#513) My clients and I have cashed three winners betting on the Pelicans over the past week, part of New Orleans current 8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS hot streak. Let me start with an excerpt from my last pro- Pelicans write-up from their outright upset win at San Antonio last week. Numbers have been edited slightly to reflect current realities: “The Pelicans are playing their best basketball of the season right now: eight straight wins, three of them coming in tight OT affairs; a team that has finally learned how to close out tight games. They’ve played excellent basketball with consistency away from home; including SU wins at Utah, San Antonio, Boston, New York, Charlotte, OKC, Brooklyn, Milwaukee, Dallas and Detroit since the calendar turned to 2018.” The Pelicans are physically fresh – they’ve played only one game in March, and that was an easy blowout at Dallas. And they’re facing a Clippers team that can’t match New Orleans when it comes to lack of fatigue – the Clips are playing their fifth game in the last eight nights. The injury bug hasn’t stopped in LA. Doc Rivers is now playing without key defender and perimeter weapon Avery Bradley, and Danilo Gallinari’s return to the lineup lasted less than three weeks before he fractured his hand. That’s why the likes of Sean Kilpatrick – just signed to a ten day contract – is getting playing time at point guard. The Clippers have been feasting on the weak of late, knocking off the Nets, Knicks and Suns for three of their last four victories. But LA is not the better of these two teams right now; with no business laying points against the hottest team in the NBA this side of Houston. Let’s ride Alvin Gentry’s squad one more time! Take the Pelicans. |
|||||||
03-06-18 | Wake Forest +4.5 v. Syracuse | 64-73 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
Take Wake Forest (#521) Betting on conference tournaments requires a ‘reset’ from what happened in the regular season. Yes, Syracuse at 19-12 was better than Wake Forest at 11-19 this season. Syracuse was better in the ACC as well, 8-10 vs. 4-14. But all of that is baked into this pointspread, for sure. What’s not baked into the pointspread is this quote from Demon Deacons junior guard Keyshawn Woods: “Now you press that reset button, see who wins the games. I know people are saying this is an unlikely win or an unlikely run to win this tournament, but I feel like it’s very likely. We can do whatever we want to do. It’s just up to us at the end of the day.” Quotes like that are KEY from underdogs in conference tourney action. It’s not like Wake doesn’t have talent – they were projected to finish one spot higher than the Orange prior to the season. And it’s not like Wake couldn’t hang with the Orange during the regular season -- both meetings were tight; each team winning and covering at home. The ‘reset’ aspect of the ACC Tourney gives a team like Wake additional energy – and expected improvement – compared to the level they played out down the stretch of the disappointing regular season. Here’s another thing that’s not baked into this pointspread – the Orange lack of depth; a huge factor at this late stage of the campaign. Tyus Battle, Frank Howard and Oshae Brissett are three excellent talents for Jim Boeheim. The problem is, Boeheim doesn’t have anybody else! That trio combined to average just shy of 50 ppg. The rest of the team scored just 15 points per game. That matters in particular because of the minutes Battle, Howard and Brissett have played – they basically never leave the floor. Too many minutes equates to tired legs on jump shots. None of the Orange Big 3 have shot better than 40% from the floor in ACC play. Wake has the better depth, and they’re fresher as well, having played only once in the last ten days. IF the Orange win, don’t expect it to come by any sort of margin. Live Dog here! Take Wake. |
|||||||
03-05-18 | Grizzlies v. Spurs -11 | 98-100 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Take San Antonio (#710) I’ve been betting against the Spurs consistently in recent weeks, as San Antonio has struggled mightily: 2-8 SU in their last ten ballgames. But make no mistake about it – this is ‘Circle the Wagons’ time for Greg Popovich after the Spurs blew double digit second half leads against the Pelicans and Lakers in their last two ballgames. And one thing the Spurs have been able to do is step DOWN in class. After facing the Warriors, Rockets, Jazz, Nuggets, Cavs, Pelicans and Lakers during this skid, Memphis is the optimal elixir to get San Antonio back on track. It’s surely worth noting that the one bottom feeder they played during this stretch – Phoenix – lost 129-81 to these Spurs. They beat Sacramento by 15 in their previous try against lesser competition. In a season where San Antonio hasn’t done much right, it’s surely worth noting their 9-2 ATS mark as favorites of -9 or higher, taking care of business against weaklings The Spurs haven’t had any trouble against the Grizzlies. In their last two tries against the Grizzlies – both in Memphis in December and January – San Antonio won 108-85 and 95-79. The Grizzlies are currently without their top three point guards. All Star caliber center Marc Gasol isn’t likely to suit up, dealing with an ankle injury. Leading scorer Tyreke Evans, too, is expected to sit. The Grizzlies are headed for the homestretch in the midst of a truly lost season, riddled with injuries from Day 1. They’ve already fired their head coach, and veterans are sitting during crunch time, getting the young guys some minutes. Their last win came in January; their last road win came at Sacramento in December; a team that has gotten very used to losing by margin in hostile environments. Five of the Grizzlies last six road defeats came by double digit margins and the one that didn’t came at fellow bottom feeder Orlando. Expect another double digit road loss here. Take the Spurs. |
|||||||
03-04-18 | Pelicans -3.5 v. Mavs | 126-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Take New Orleans (#807) My clients and I have cashed a pair of winners betting on the Pelicans over the past week, part of New Orleans current 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS hot streak. Let me start with an excerpt from my last pro- Pelicans write-up from their outright upset win at San Antonio earlier in the week. Numbers have been edited slightly to reflect current realities: “The Pelicans are playing their best basketball of the season right now: seven straight wins, three of them coming in tight OT affairs; a team that has finally learned how to close out tight games. They’ve played excellent basketball with consistency away from home; including SU wins at Utah, San Antonio, Boston, New York, Charlotte, OKC, Brooklyn, Milwaukee and Detroit since the calendar turned to 2018. Ride the hot & fade the cold.” The Pelicans are rested and ready; off since Wednesday. Dallas is not, playing their sixth game in ten days, with travel between five of them. And New Orleans still remembers what happened the last time they played the Mavs; a game where Dallas went nuts from beyond the arc. Dallas had 77 points by halftime of that contest, finishing the game with 22 made three pointers and a 60-10 bench scoring advantage. Even with that hot shooting, the Mavs still blew a 26 point lead and needed a late flurry to win. I’ll take the ‘Under 22 made 3’s’ from the Mavs today, and the ‘Under 50 point’ bench scoring differential! Dallas has precious little home court edge these days, and they’re coming off a pair of demoralizing losses, blowing close games late against the Thunder and Bulls in their last two contests. Dirk Nowitzki, following the loss at Chicago on Friday: “We've been in plenty of close games this year. Unfortunately, we haven't really found ways of holding on consistently.” Expect more of the same…. Take New Orleans |
|||||||
03-04-18 | Michigan +4.5 v. Purdue | 75-66 | Win | 100 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
Take Michigan (#837) The results do not lie. The Boilermakers are highly regarded in the betting markets; favored in eleven of their last twelve games dating back to late January. Matt Painter’s squad has covered a grand total of two of those 12 pointspreads, just 1-9-2 ATS or 1-10-1 (depending on your pointspread) in their last dozen tries laying points. Purdue certainly hasn’t had an easy time in recent meetings against Michigan. The Wolverines lost by four at Purdue as 11 point underdogs earlier this season; covering the spread wire-2-wire despite a ridiculous 62% shooting effort from the Boilermakers; 55% from three point range. They also lost at home by a single point to Purdue; another game where Purdue was on fire from three point range: 12-21 from beyond the arc. Last year, the Wolverines won both meetings SU and ATS. In fact, Matt Painter has covered only one pointspread in his last six matchups against John Beilein. And Purdue’s mini-winning streak – five straight wins, despite only one pointspread cover – has come against the weakest competition the Big 10 has to offer: Penn State twice, Rutgers, Minnesota and Illinois. Michigan, on the other hand, has been consistently stepping up against quality foes down the stretch during their current eight game winning streak; yesterday’s victory over Michigan State only the latest example. There aren’t many better tournament coaches than Beilein; a guy I want my money ON in short turnaround situations. Check out these numbers for an under-the-radar impressive track record: Beilein’s Wolverines are 24-8 SU, 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 postseason tournament games dating back to 2013. That’s a track record worthy of support for a Michigan squad playing their best basketball of the season right now! Take Michigan. |
|||||||
03-03-18 | Thunder v. Blazers -4 | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
Take Portland (#514) To say that the Blazers have matched up well against the Thunder is something of an understatement. Portland is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four meetings between these two teams, including a double digit road win at OKC the last time these two teams met up. The Blazers have won seven straight meetings at home against OKC dating back to 2014. And the Blazers are playing their best basketball of the season right now: 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five ballgames including wins over the Warriors, Jazz and T-Wolves. Damian Lillard is on FIRE, hanging 35+ in five of his last eight games. His quote, following their ‘come-from-behind’ win over Minnesota on Thursday reeks of confidence: “Over the course of a season, some teams get better; some teams don't. Some teams figure it out; some teams don't. Historically, we've been a team that as the season goes on, we have ups and downs, but toward the end we start playing better. We're at a point where things that would have happened earlier on in the season aren't happening now. That's the sign of a team that's maturing, that it's growing and getting better." This home court is no joke! Portland is 12-1 SU run on this floor in their last 13 tries; 10-2-1 ATS during that span. That’s bad news for an OKC squad that battled down to the wire in Phoenix last night; stealing a win (and a bad beat push) with a 10-0 run over the final minute and a half. Billy Donovan knows what’s coming tonight: "There's no question we've struggled against some teams on the road. Portland has always been a difficult place for us to play." I concur! Take the Blazers. |
|||||||
03-03-18 | Penn State +8 v. Purdue | 70-78 | Push | 0 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
Take Penn State (#637) (abbreviated write-up for this early tip-off) Purdue has been an overvalued commodity for months; consistent moneylosers for their backers. The results do not lie. The Boilermakers are highly regarded in the betting markets; favored in ten of their last eleven games dating back to late January. Matt Painter’s squad has covered a grand total of ONE of those pointspreads, just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 tries laying points. Their only win by more than seven points since the beginning of February came against a Minnesota team that had basically quit. Purdue certainly hasn’t had an easy time in recent meetings against Penn State. The Nittany Lions took Purdue to the wire in West Lafayette two weeks ago; a four point loss. They took Purdue into OT in the previous meeting, also a four point Boilermakers victory. Even against a tired Rutgers team yesterday, Purdue couldn’t pull away and win by margin. Facing a hot, ‘refuse to lose’ Penn State squad that is playing for a Big Dance bid, I’m not expecting the Boilermakers to be able to extend the margin today either….if they win the game at all. And it’s also worth noting Penn State’s 7-1 ATS mark in their last eight Big 10 Tourney games under head coach Pat Chambers– they take this tournament VERY seriously. Take Penn State. |
|||||||
03-03-18 | Creighton v. Marquette -2 | 81-85 | Win | 100 | 3 h 44 m | Show | |
Take Marquette (#528) (abbreviated write-up for this early tip-off) To say that Creighton isn’t playing any defense on the road is something of an understatement. The results don’t lie. In Big East road games, the Bluejays have allowed 93 to Butler, 75 to offensively challenged DePaul, 98 to Villanova, 85 to Providence, 92 to Xavier and 90 to Seton Hall. For the season, Creighton has allowed 49% shooting on the highway, 41% from three point range. No surprise, then, that Marquette was able to hang 90 on them in the first meeting, picking up right where they left off last year when the Golden Eagles went 2-0 SU and ATS against the Bluejays, scoring 102 and 91 in the process. This dog flat out cannot get stops, bad news in this pointspread range against a quality foe at home on Senior Day. Take Marquette. |
|||||||
03-03-18 | Michigan v. Michigan State OVER 135.5 | 75-64 | Win | 100 | 2 h 19 m | Show | |
Take Michigan – Michigan State OVER (#635-636) (abbreviated write-up for this early tip-off) The concept here is simple. Most teams struggle offensively against Michigan State’s stout defense; a ‘D’ that has held opponents to 64 points per game on 36.4% shooting for the full season. The Spartans rank in the Top 10 nationally in numerous key statistical categories, and there’s rarely upward pressure on their totals – they’ve cashed six consecutive Unders; coming into this game off back-2-back grinders against Wisconsin. But John Beilein’s Wolverines have solved the Spartans defense. Michigan hung 82 on Sparty in East Lansing earlier this season despite a modest 42% shooting effort, making only six three pointers. Michigan hung 86 on Sparty in their final meeting last year; consistently creating good shot opportunities against an elite defense. This game is going to be a flat out war, creating the opportunity for late scramble points as well. And Madison Square Garden certainly isn’t a difficult venue for perimeter shooters, especially considering that both teams played on this floor yesterday. Expect a relatively high scoring affair that gets up and Over the total. Take the Over. |
|||||||
03-02-18 | Knicks v. Clippers -8.5 | 105-128 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Take the LA Clippers (#820) New York has come out of the All Star Break with an offensive flurry, hanging 120 on the Magic, 112 on the Celtics and 111 on the Warriors; the latter two results both coming against elite defensive squads. Yet I’m not buying this offensive resurgence one iota. Steve Kerr had his bench on the floor against the Knicks starters for extended stretches on Monday. Jeff Hornacek tried to push the pace vs. Boston on the second night of back-2-backs. And Orlando’s defensive efforts for most of the season have flat out been awful. Even when the Knicks hit baskets, they’re struggling to cover. They shot 49% from the floor at home against the Warriors and still lost by 14. The biggest issue is at the point guard position where newly acquired Emmanuel Mudiay, underachieving Trey Burke and Belgian rookie Frank Ntilikina are all getting minutes. That’s not a ‘bet-on’ trio, to put it mildly. And all three are coming off relatively good games, combining for 22-42 shooting, with a 13-2 assist-to-turnover ratio. I’ll take the ‘Under’ on that level of production tonight! It’s surely worth noting recent Knicks road losses -- by 30 at Boston, by 25 at Toronto, by 16 at Philly. New York has been unable to step up in class and they’ve repeatedly ‘let go of the rope’ in the second half of ugly games, not fighting to get back into them. The Clippers have been good favorites all year; 17-7 ATS when laying -3 or higher, including an 80% ATS mark at -7 or higher. The Knicks, on the other hand, are just 3-14 ATS when catching +7 or higher, losing repeatedly by margin in this role. And this is a ‘full concentration’ game for LA. The Clips are coming off an ugly offensive showing against the Rockets; their first time since the All Star Break that they failed to score 120+ and their first home game in nearly three weeks. I’m expecting a far better showing in this home game, a blowout just waiting for tip-off. Take the Clippers. |
|||||||
03-02-18 | Thunder v. Suns +8 | 124-116 | Push | 0 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
Take Phoenix (#816) Betting against the OKC Thunder as favorites has been a consistent part of my gameplan in NBA action, and it’s certainly been paying dividends of late! Let me start this write-up with an excerpt from my last anti-Thunder wager – their last try as road favorites at hapless Sacramento last week. Numbers have been adjusted to reflect current realities: “To say that the Oklahoma City Thunder have been poor favorites is something of an understatement. The numbers do not lie. OKC has been favored by -6 or higher on 27 previous occasions this season. They have covered a grand total of seven of those pointspreads; 7-20 ATS in this role. “On the highway, those numbers are even worse. The Thunder’s most RECENT pointspread cover as road chalk of higher than -5 came back on October 28th at Chicago. They’ve lost OUTRIGHT as road favorites at Portland, Denver, Minnesota, Utah, San Antonio, New Orleans, Dallas, Orlando, Brooklyn, New York, Phoenix, Sacramento and Washington. Yes, that’s more SU losses than pointspread covers in this role…..” OKC ‘s struggles with Phoenix are nothing new. The Thunder won 47 games last year, Phoenix won 24. The Thunder still lost SU and ATS in both meetings at Phoenix. In fact, the last three meetings between these two teams have been very one sided – the Suns have covered all of them by at least 15 points; a combined +64 points ATS. The Suns young guns are showing signs. Devin Booker just hung 34 in a win at Memphis; rookie Josh Jackson chipped in with a career high 29. Elfrid Payton has 29 assists in his last three games, developing a nice chemistry with his new teammates already. There are rays of hope in Phoenix these days, and with OKC also on an 0-6 ATS Run off a single victory (they beat Dallas in OT on Wednesday), I have ZERO hesitation betting against the Thunder in their single worst ATS role. Take the Suns. |
|||||||
03-02-18 | Pacers +4 v. Bucks | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Take Indiana (#813) To say that the Milwaukee Bucks have not been good home favorites is something of an understatement. In 31 previous home games this season, the Bucks have covered a grand total of nine pointspreads. Let me start this write-up with an excerpt from my anti-Bucks write-up right before the All Star Break, when they lost SU and ATS at home to the Nuggets: “At first glance, the Milwaukee Bucks have put together an impressive run since Joe Prunty took over for Jason Kidd as head coach: 9-2 SU in the 11 games since the coaching change. But a quick look at the Bucks schedule shows exactly why Milwaukee has been hot of late – they’ve been feasting on bottom feeders, one after the next. “The results don’t lie. During this 9-2 SU stretch, the Bucks are 8-0 against teams with sub .400 winning percentages. They’ve beaten the Knicks twice, the Nets twice, as well as the Magic, Hawks, Bulls & Suns. When Milwaukee has been asked to step up in class under Prunty, it hasn’t been quite as pretty: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS. Even the one win comes with an asterisk – they beat the Sixers on the second night of back-2-backs for Philly when Joel Embiid was sitting.” The Bucks lost at home to Denver that night, but they came out of the break with an OT win at Toronto; a statement game for Milwaukee with some bad blood between the two teams. Since then, the Bucks have picked up right where they left off – losing; including home games to the Pistons and Pelicans and an ugly road blowout at Detroit. This Milwaukee team is still being priced like a serious contender in the betting markets, but right now, they’re only beating bottom feeders without key contributors Malcolm Brogdon and Matthew Dellavedova both still sitting with injuries. Indiana is no bottom feeder, and the Pacers are hungry, coming off back-2-back losses for the first time in more than a month. Even worse, both losses came against weak foes, with Indiana losing SU and ATS as road chalk at Dallas and Atlanta. The Pacers have been cold from three point range, 16-52 as a team on this road trip; not a long term issue if we believe this quote from Victor Oladipo (and I do believe the quote): “Obviously, I haven't been shooting it great from 3. I'm aware of that. I just got to keep working on it. Shoot with confidence -- don't think about it and just let it fly." I also like this ‘bet-on’ quote from head coach Nate McMillan following their sloppy loss at Atlanta earlier in the week: “We've been a team that has taken care of the ball, one of the better teams in the league. Tonight, just a lot of one-on-one play, playing in traffic, just loose with the basketball. We had several guys with three or more turnovers. Just not sharp at all out there." Expect a ‘sharp’ performance here against a vulnerable Bucks team. Take the Pacers. |
|||||||
03-01-18 | Oregon State v. Washington -3 | 77-79 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
Take Washington (#554) The Washington Huskies have been a meal ticket for my clients and I for the better part of the last two months. And, quite frankly, the betting markets have been VERY reluctant to make significant upwards adjustments for the Huskies; a team that continues to play above market projections on a consistent basis. The Huskies certainly remember what happened in the first meeting between these two squads. The Beavers trailed throughout, down 67-54 at the eight minute timeout in the second half. Then Tres Tinkle and Stephen Thompson Jr started draining three’s, five of them in a row, sending the crowd into a frenzy and sending the game into overtime. Thompson’s three pointer with a second left on the clock in double OT was the game winner for Oregon State. It’s a loss the Huskies haven’t forgotten….. Oregon State’s next road win will be their first one of the season. They are 0-fer the season on the highway as single digit underdogs, their only two ATS covers coming as double digit dogs back in early January at Arizona and Arizona State. With a 3-7 SU, 2-8 ATS mark in their last ten games, it’s certainly not like the Beavers are coming in to this road tilt with a boatload of momentum. Oregon State is coming in off a win – they upset Arizona State at home last weekend. Dating back to December, the Beavers are 1-5 SU & ATS off a victory, consistently unable to string strong performances together. My clients & I cashed an easy blowout supporting the Huskies at Cal in their last game, a 17 point wire-2-wire victory as three point favorites. No surprise here if tonight’s game, too, is a relatively comfortable victory for the home chalk. Take Washington. |
|||||||
03-01-18 | Northwestern v. Penn State -5.5 | Top | 57-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Penn State (#560) Northwestern’s season ends today. The Wildcats have limped to the finish line; a major disappointment following last year’s 24 win campaign that ended their NCAA Tourney drought; the first time in the history of the program that Northwestern had won more than 20 games. That was then; this is now. The Wildcats head to Madison Square Garden in the midst of a six game losing streak. Three of those losses came as favorites; two more came as short underdogs – Northwestern hasn’t even been able to beat weaklings of late. Northwestern’s injury bug has been biting of late. Second leading scorer and rebounder Vic Law just suffered a season ender; key backcourt reserve Jordan Ash is out too. Senior big man Gavin Skelly is questionable at best and senior point guard Bryant McIntosh is dealing with a sore shoulder. This is NOT a healthy team heading to New York. Penn State dominated the first meeting between these two teams; a 78-63 home victory. The Nittany Lions were in control of the second meeting for about 29 minutes despite playing without starter Josh Reaves, but they went the final 11 minutes without scoring a single basket; outscored 19-6 during crunch time. It’s a loss Penn State hasn’t forgotten…. This is Penn State’s best team of the Pat Chambers era, and they’ve got a real chip on their shoulder after losing three straight ‘step up in class’ games to close out the regular season. From all indications, Nittany Lions star big man Mike Watkins will be healthy enough to suit up. And Penn State’s best player, Tony Carr – the leading scorer in the Big 10 this season – scored only half his average in the two games against NW, hitting only 7 of his 23 shot attempts. Carr has averaged more than 21 ppg since his last matchup against the Wildcats; a potential difference maker today. Penn State takes the Big 10 tourney seriously. They won their opener here last year, covering as chalk. They covered as underdogs in their 2016 game and went 2-1 SU/3-0 ATS while making the quarterfinals in 2015; riding a 5-0 ATS run in the Big 10 tourney into Thursday. Last, but not least, Northwestern has NOT been a good underdog at any point this season, unable to step up on a consistent basis. As dogs of +3 or higher, the Wildcats have been true money burners: 2-8 ATS in ten tries. That’s an under-the-radar angle worth riding here in a game that has ‘double digit win’ written all over it! Big Ticket: Take Penn State. |
|||||||
02-28-18 | Pelicans +5 v. Spurs | 121-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Take New Orleans (#713) My clients and I have been betting AGAINST the Spurs and betting ON the Pelicans fairly consistently of late. So, in a matchup of these two teams headed in opposite directions right now, I have little hesitation taking the better, hotter team catching points. At some points, the betting markets are likely to realize that this is Greg Popovich’s weakest team of the decade, especially with no timetable for Kawhi Leonard’s return. So far, that hasn’t happened, leaving us with legitimate value betting against a San Antonio team that has no business as mid-sized chalk against the surging Pelicans. It’s surely worth noting that the Spurs won’t have key low post weapon Pau Gasol tonight, bad news against the hottest player in the NBA right now, New Orleans center Anthony Davis. The Spurs are a sub .500 team since the calendar turned to 2018, just 11-14 SU in their last 25 ballgames. Their home court was strong for most of the first half, but even that has declined of late, as San Antonio has lost SU on this floor to Philly, Utah and Houston in their last five home games while never sniffing a pointspread cover as -7 point favorites in a tight two point win against Denver. Coming off a big blowout at Cleveland and returning to San Antonio for the first time in 3 ½ weeks, I’m not expecting the Spurs to dominate. It’s surely worth noting that the last time San Antonio notched back-2-back wins and covers came in January; just 2-7 SU in 2018 off a single victory. One of those two wins came against hapless Memphis, the other came in non-spread covering fashion in that aforementioned game against the Nuggets. Plain and simple --- the Spurs cannot be trusted as chalk off a win. New Orleans has owned this series from a pointspread perspective; 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings including three consecutive covers dating back to last year. And the Pelicans are playing their best basketball of the season right now: six straight wins, three of them coming in tight OT affairs; a team that has finally learned how to close out tight games. They’ve played excellent basketball with consistency away from home; including SU wins at Utah, Boston, New York, Charlotte, OKC, Brooklyn, Milwaukee and Detroit since the calendar turned to 2018. Ride the hot & fade the cold. Take New Orleans |
|||||||
02-28-18 | Ole Miss v. Kentucky -9 | 78-96 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Take Kentucky (#724) I’ve got ‘bet-on’ and ‘bet-against’ elements in play for this one. Let me start with the ‘bet-against’ piece of the equation. It’s been a long, ugly season for Ole Miss, to put it mildly. The players tuned out head coach Andy Kennedy early, and he left mid-season after 11 years with the program. The Rebels got a brief spark under interim head coach Tony Madlock, but it didn’t last – they trailed by 20 in the first half at home against Tennessee last weekend – their eight point defeat in that game was a VERY misleading final score. I’m not expecting ‘A+’ level effort in Lexington tonight in their final true road game of the season. And the Rebels don’t match up well with the Wildcats anyway. Ole Miss is an awful offensive team, consistently settling for poor shots. They’ve shot under 40% from the floor away from home this season, and have connected on a lower percentage of three pointers than any team in the SEC. That’s particularly bad news against Kentucky, because the Wildcats have the #1 three point shooting defense in the conference. When the Wildcats go on a run tonight, Ole Miss is going to have a very hard time shooting themselves back into the game. I’ve got plenty of ‘bet-on’ sentiments about Kentucky right now. The Wildcats have national championship caliber talent, but the chemistry hasn’t been there for most of the season. That’s changed of late – Kentucky enters tonight on a 3-0 SU and ATS run, beating quality foes Alabama, Arkansas and Missouri all by double digit margins. Coach John Calipari, talking about the significant improvement here in February: “You see I’m getting my second wind. You see me, I’m whistling and skipping in there (to practice). But I was dragging about three weeks ago. I’m not fighting guys every day. I’m enjoying walking into practice.” Don’t expect the Wildcats to take their foot off the gas pedal here…. Take Kentucky |
|||||||
02-28-18 | Illinois +1 v. Iowa | 87-96 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
Take Illinois (#761) I’m going to keep this write-up short and sweet. The last time Iowa won a game away from home came back on January 11th. They rallied from 20 points down to beat Illinois in OT, in large part due to a HUGE edge at the free throw line: 40 attempts for the Hawkeyes, 14 for the Illini. For the season, the Illini was the best team in the Big 10 at forcing turnovers; creating 17 takeaways per game in conference play. I’m not expecting the free throw disparity from the first meeting to carry over to the rematch. Illinois just won a true road game, smacking Rutgers in a game they controlled from start to finish, a real confidence boost for a team that won six straight to open the season – they’re not hopeless – but suffered through an eight game skid at the start of Big 10 play. Iowa head coach Fran McCaffrey knows what’s coming: “I was impressed with Illinois. I mean that sincerely. I thought they were ready to play. They compete as well as any team on our schedule. Brad’s got them playing hard. They share the ball. They play with a lot of guys. They play with a lot of energy.” Illinois is flat out the better of these two teams, based on my eye test. And if you do nothing but bet on underdogs who opened as favorites in conference tournament play, you’re betting into a very positive expectation subset. Iowa got their win in their regular season finale. The last time the Hawkeyes covered a spread in the game following a SU win? Over Christmas break! Take Illinois. |
|||||||
02-27-18 | Clippers v. Nuggets -4.5 | 122-120 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
Take Denver (#512) My clients and I have been betting on Denver lately, cashing a pair of winners with one push since the week before the All Star Break. Let me start with an excerpt from my last pro-Nuggets write-up. Numbers have been edited slightly to reflect current realities: Very quietly, waaaay underneath the radar, the Nuggets have knocked off the Thunder, Spurs, Bucks and Warriors as part of a 7-2 SU, 6-2-1 ATS run here in February – beating good teams, by margin. Mike Malone has defensive minded big man Mason Plumlee back in the lineup, with Paul Millsap expected to follow shortly. Look at this ‘bet-on’ quote from Coach Michael Malone: "It's just great to have those guys back. We'll figure out who plays and when they play, but being healthy….(is) a good thing to be." I was thoroughly impressed with how Denver played in defeat in their last game, losing by five as 4.5 point underdogs to the Rockets. On four different occasions, Houston made a run and Denver trailed by double digits. The Nuggets fought back all four times to make the game competitive. Coach Malone: "I was proud of the way we fought, proud of the way we competed. That game could have gotten out of hand a few times, so I applaud our guys' effort." The effort is there, and this time, the Nuggets are coming off a loss…..Point guard Devin Harris: “It's just one game and we'll come back and try to beat the Clippers." The injury bug continues to bite in LA, with Avery Bradley and Danilo Gallinari the latest to go down. Bradley’s injury is huge – he’s been an impact player on both ends of the floor since arriving in LA. Gallinari could try to suit up tonight with his bruised hand, but I wouldn’t count on his usual array of ‘instant offense’ against his former squad. The Clips could easily be out of sync here – they’ve played only twice – a set of back-2-backs –in the last 13 days. Coming off an easy blowout against the Suns in their last outing, I’m expecting the Clips to struggle to match that performance tonight. Take the Nuggets. |
|||||||
02-27-18 | Oklahoma v. Baylor -3.5 | 64-87 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
Take Baylor (#540) Baylor gave Oklahoma everything the Sooners could handle in the first meeting between these two teams. The Bears led by three with under a minute to play, but the Sooners scored the final five points of the game. Frosh phenom Trae Young was on fire in that game: 44 points and nine assists; including six made three pointers and 16 of 19 free throws. Things have changed dramatically for both teams since that first meeting. Oklahoma went south, losing six straight before their win over Kansas State at home last weekend. Baylor responded with five straight wins, including outright upsets against Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas and Oklahoma State. But the Bears are coming off back-2-back losses in their last two contests. So we’ve got a struggling team off a win and a quality team, playing with revenge, off back-2-back losses. It’s senior night in Waco as well, a big deal considering that their four leading scorers – the stars of the team -- are all seniors, most notably Jo Lual-Acuil and Manu Lecomte. This is a Grade ‘A’ Baylor spot, plain and simple. Oklahoma hung 98 on Baylor in that first meeting. The Bears defense has improved by leaps and bounds since that ballgame; a defense that has been dominant in Waco all year – 40% shooting allowed for the full season. Oklahoma has a grand total of one win all season when they didn’t reach 80 points. Baylor has allowed more than 71 points in regulation only once in conference play. Cheap price to lay with the better team, at home, in a max focus spot. Take Baylor. |
|||||||
02-27-18 | Miami-FL v. North Carolina OVER 151.5 | 91-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
Take Miami – North Carolina OVER (#543-544) Here’s the quote from Roy Williams, talking about what North Carolina wants to do in terms of upping their tempo down the stretch of the campaign: We do it every single day and sometimes more than once. I want us to get used to pushing the pace. I'm a little mad at myself. At the beginning of the season, we played with a 15-second shot clock. And I told them I didn't want bad shots. So they had to work exceptionally well to get good shots. We've gotten away from that, so we may try to go back to that a little bit this week." The Tar Heels have only played one game since that quote. They hung 78 on Syracuse in that contest – at the Carrier Dome – at the game cashed every Over bet. They’ve been off since last Wednesday, concentrating on nothing but practice time. It’s surely worth noting the last time they played Miami here in Chapel Hill, UNC hung 96 on the Hurricanes and the game flew Over the total. The betting markets tend to think of Miami as a slower paced team prone to Unders. But the ‘Canes have been more than willing to play uptempo basketball – 11 of their last 14 ACC games have seen the loser get into the 70’s, cashing ten Over tickets in those 14 contests. From a pure pace standpoint, Miami’s offense has been much faster this year than in any recent season, averaging nearly two fewer seconds per shot than last year in ACC play. Expect a shootout! Take the Over. |
|||||||
02-26-18 | Wolves v. Kings +6 | 118-100 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Sacramento (#720) Sacramento went into the break as competitive underdogs; 7-2 ATS in their last nine tries catching more than five points. They came out of the break with a pointspread cover as eight point home dogs against the Thunder, despite the fact that they trailed by 23 points at the end of the first quarter of that game – showing fight! Even after a five point home loss to the Lakers over the weekend, there’s still plenty to like about Sacramento from a pointspread standpoint at this stage of the campaign. The Kings young trio of DeAaron Fox, Bogdan Bogdanovich and Willie Cauley Stein are true building blocks. So are Buddy Hield and Skal Labissiere coming off the bench and with the likes of Vince Carter, Garrett Temple and Zack Randolph getting regular minutes, there’s no shortage of veteran leadership for this squad coming OUT of the break, even as Sacto enters the dog days of this losing season. Don’t underestimate the injury loss of Jimmy Butler on Minnesota’s mindset. Butler was everything for that team when it comes to leadership; both on and off the floor. In the first game that he missed, Minnesota faced the right team at the right team, beating up on a truly hapless Bulls squad. I’m not expecting tonight’s game to be quite as easy for the road favorites, especially given their consistent woes in this role. The results do not lie. Tom Thibodeau’s squad is 0-7 SU in their last seven road games. They are 0-5 SU in their only five tries as road favorites since the calendar turned to 2018, losing SU at Brooklyn, Atlanta, Cleveland, Chicago and Orlando. I most assuredly do NOT expect an easy T-Wolves victory by margin in this one. Take the Kings. |
|||||||
02-26-18 | Magic +10 v. Thunder | 105-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Take Orlando (#713) My clients and I cashed a winning bet against OKC at Sacramento in their first game following the All Star Break. The Thunder led by 23 after the first quarter; yet they didn’t even sniff a pointspread cover; needing a Russell Westbrook buzzer beating three pointer just to escape with the SU victory. This isn’t new or different for OKC. Let me start with an excerpt from that last anti- Thunder write-up. Numbers have been edited slightly to reflect current realities: “To say that the Oklahoma City Thunder have been poor favorites is something of an understatement. The numbers do not lie. OKC has been favored by -6 or higher on 26 previous occasions this season. They have covered a grand total of seven of those pointspreads; 7-19 ATS in this role. They’ve lost OUTRIGHT as favorites to Portland, Denver, Minnesota, Utah, San Antonio, New Orleans, Dallas, Orlando, Brooklyn, New York, Phoenix and Washington. Yes, that’s more SU losses than pointspread covers when trying to lay big chalk…..” The Thunder are coming off a confidence sapping beatdown at the hands of the Warriors. They’ve shown no inclination or ability to dominate weaklings, as evidenced by the recent history of this series. Orlando has won SU twice in the last three meetings and the Thunder haven’t beaten the Magic by more than three points in regulation since January of 2015. The Magic came out of the break with back-2-back clunkers. But they’ve got Aaron Gordon back in the lineup with a couple of games under his belt, as well as Nikola Vucevic’s return after extended injury absences. And Frank Vogel’s squad has been nothing short of outstanding on the highway, 8-1 ATS in their last nine road tilts. Aaron Gordon was not amused by what happened in Philly over the weekend: "With this team, especially, we can't lack energy. If we're lacking energy, we're digging our own grave." Expect ‘energy’ tonight against a team they beat by double digits as underdogs in the first meeting. Take the Magic. |
|||||||
02-26-18 | Pistons +11 v. Raptors | 94-123 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Detroit (#701) The Pistons are coming off back-2-back ugly losses coming out of the All Star Break, blasted by the Celtics at home, then unable to wake up for their early start game against Charlotte yesterday. While Detroit’s bench production stood out as a problematic issue in both games, Stan Van Gundy wasn’t willing to hang yesterday’s loss on his reserves. Van Gundy’s quote: “It's not just the bench. It's not a matter of (sending a) message. They're not playing well. (The Hornets) played with a lot more energy and a lot more intensity than we did. That was the game. And that's not just our bench or anything else. That's to a man down the line. So, let's not lay it on four or five guys -- that was a team-wide thing." Andre Drummond concurred: “There was no effort when we came out of that first quarter. The second quarter again decided the game. Honestly, this needs to stop. We can't keep (playing) games where we're down by 15, 20 before halftime and then try to make a fight to come back." This is, most assuredly, an ‘effort’ game for the Pistons. Detroit has been very good at two things this season. First, they’ve been good at avoiding strings of bad losses. In fact, the Pistons haven’t lost three in a row by double digits even once this season, worth noting considering their status as double digit dogs tonight. Secondly, the Pistons have been extremely profitable in this ‘big dog’ role; a truly impressive 13-2 ATS since Day 1 this season when catching +5 or higher. In short, this is a Pistons spot, and this is their best pointspread role, while Toronto has been struggling to close out games winning by margin. Live dog! Take the Pistons. |
|||||||
02-25-18 | Pelicans +4 v. Bucks | 123-121 | Win | 100 | 4 h 44 m | Show | |
Take New Orleans (#803) To say that the Milwaukee Bucks have not been good home favorites is something of an understatement. In 29 previous home games, the Bucks have covered a grand total of nine pointspreads. Let me start this write-up with an excerpt from my anti-Bucks write-up right before the All Star Break, when they lost SU and ATS at home to the Nuggets: “At first glance, the Milwaukee Bucks have put together an impressive run since Joe Prunty took over for Jason Kidd as head coach: 9-2 SU in the 11 games since the coaching change. But a quick look at the Bucks schedule shows exactly why Milwaukee has been hot of late – they’ve been feasting on bottom feeders, one after the next. “The results don’t lie. During this 9-2 SU stretch, the Bucks are 8-0 against teams with sub .400 winning percentages. They’ve beaten the Knicks twice, the Nets twice, as well as the Magic, Hawks, Bulls & Suns. When Milwaukee has been asked to step up in class under Prunty, it hasn’t been quite as pretty: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS. Even the one win comes with an asterisk – they beat the Sixers on the second night of back-2-backs for Philly when Joel Embiid was sitting.” The Bucks lost at home to Denver that night, but they came out of the break with an OT win at Toronto; a statement game for Milwaukee with some bad blood between the two teams. Up next, they have a pair of showdown games on back-2-back nights in the Eastern Conference against the Wizards and Pistons. In between, they’ve got this early start tip against New Orleans. This is most assuredly NOT a step up spot for the home team, especially given their continued injury woes without Malcolm Brogdon or Matthew Dellevadova in their backcourt. Key low post defender Tyler Zeller has been laid up with the flu, no sure thing to be on the court (or to be effective) against Anthony Davis this afternoon. The Pelicans have won four straight overall, and they’ve played excellent basketball with consistency away from home; including SU wins at Utah, Boston, New York, Charlotte, OKC, Brooklyn and Detroit since the calendar turned to 2018. Coming off a true ‘refuse to lose’ double OT win against the Heat on Friday Night, the Pelicans have legit ‘bet-on’ potential moving forward. Guard Ian Clark, following that win: “We are figuring it out. I think we definitely needed a game like this." I concur. Take the Pelicans. |
|||||||
02-25-18 | UNLV v. New Mexico -3 | 90-91 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
Take New Mexico (#822) There’s plenty to dislike about UNLV right now. In back-2-back ‘statement’ games over the past week, UNLV has lost in non-competitive fashion each time. We’re not talking about games where the Rebels were outclassed talent wise – they were +4.5 as San Diego State (a 94-56 road loss) and -2 vs. Fresno State (a 77-64 home defeat). Even more disturbingly, at no point in the second half of either blowout loss did the Rebels put together anything resembling a run – they just tucked in their tails and quit, both times. UNLV stunk up the joint in both contests. Against San Diego State the Rebels were -12 on the boards and committed 18 turnovers. They had 17 more turnovers against Fresno, while shooting under 30% from the floor. Let’s not forget that the Rebels shot 48% from the floor and avoided turnovers in bunches (only 12) in their first meeting against New Mexico. They still lost SU and ATS as home chalk against the Lobos. New Mexico takes and makes more 3-pointers than any team in the Mountain West. UNLV, on the ranks dead last in the conference in made 3’s. The Lobos hit ten trifectas in the first meeting, while the Rebels hit only two. This is a legitimate problem for the Rebels on both ends of the floor, especially in a VERY hostile road environment. I don’t like the quotes coming out of the UNLV locker room either – every player quote I could find talked about winning in March, and stepping up for the conference tournament. They seem to be getting their direction from Coach Menzies: “When you're going through a tough time like this, you have to step back and get clear vision and not let the emotion of the loss take you to a deep place where you can't recover….I typically have our teams playing their best basketball when that tournament gets here. That's like a whole different season when the tournament starts. I think they'll be ready to play in March for sure.” It’s not March yet, coach! Take New Mexico |
|||||||
02-24-18 | Mavs v. Jazz -9 | 90-97 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
Take Utah (#510) Dallas ranks near the top of my ‘bet-against’ teams down the homestretch of the NBA campaign. It starts with this quote from Mark Cuban over the All Star Break, a quote that Cuban was fined $660K for: “I’m probably not supposed to say this, but I just had dinner with a bunch of our guys the other night, and here we are, you know, we weren’t competing for the playoffs. I was like, ‘Look, losing is our best option’. Adam [Silver] would hate hearing that, but at least I sat down and I explained it to them.” Then came the sexual misconduct allegations coming out of the Mavs front office. Dirk Nowitzki: “It's very disappointing. It's heartbreaking. I'm glad it's all coming out. I was disgusted when I read the article, obviously, as everybody was. I was shocked by some of the stuff. Just really really disappointed that in our franchise - my franchise - that stuff like that was going on. It's just very sad.” That’s one heck of a one-two punch of offcourt issues for a lottery bound foe. The Mavs were no-shows last night in LA against the Lakers, losing by 22; a game that was essentially garbage time by halftime. Playing on the second of back-2-backs in the altitude of Salt Lake City is not a ‘step-up’ spot for the road team, to put it mildly. Utah went into the All Star Break on a season high ten game winning streak. They came out of the break with a real clunker, blown off the floor in a 19 point home loss to the Blazers last night, a 20 turnover effort. Big man Derrick Favors, following the loss: "We were just making sloppy passes. It's easy stuff to clean up. We've been off for a week, so guys are going to come in kind of rusty. Just got to find that rhythm again that we had before we went off. We got it out of the way in this game, so the next game should be better." I concur! Take the Jazz. |
|||||||
02-24-18 | Gonzaga v. BYU +5 | 79-65 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
Take BYU (#660) At the start of WCC play, Gonzaga was ranked #19 in the country. Since that time, the Zags have faced two teams that were capable of playing a competitive game against them – BYU and St Mary’s. The Zags split their two meetings with the Gaels. They won, but didn’t cover in a competitive matchup against the Cougars. And yet somehow, that has propelled the Zags to #6 in the country, largely because the vast majority of the other top teams play in more competitive conferences, with teams that are capable of beating them. Gonzaga’s rise in the polls and the subsequent betting market perception of the Zags is based on flawed data, plain and simple. Right now, the Zags are an overvalued commodity, as clearly evidenced by their 2-10 ATS mark in their last dozen games. BYU was tied at 59-59 with Gonzaga in the first meeting before a late Zags run allowed Gonzaga to win, although they never really sniffed a pointspread cover in that contest. BYU’s leading scorer Elijah Bryant scored only four points on 1-11 shooting, while the Cougs hit only 3-20 from beyond the arc and they STILL covered! The Cougars also hung tough with St Mary’s when the Gaels came to visit, taking them into overtime before coming up short. BYU has really stepped up their defensive effort of late. They’re getting the job done at the charity stripe. Bryant’s top two teammates, Yoeli Childs and TJ Haws, are both in excellent current form; a trio that averages more than 47 points per game, giving their opponents problems from both inside and outside the arc. And it’s surely worth noting BYU’s success in close games, including a pair of OT wins in the last two weeks. Live dog here! Take BYU. |
|||||||
02-24-18 | Grizzlies +8.5 v. Heat | Top | 89-115 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Memphis (#505) Miami is a great underdog; cashing winning bets for my clients and I repeatedly in that role all season long. But when we look at Eric Spoelstra’s squad as a favorite, the pointspread results are downright ugly. At -3 or higher this season – dating back to Day 1 – the Heat are just 3-13 ATS. Betting against Miami in this role has cashed at an 81% clip. Miami plays tight games. Every night. The results don’t lie. Each of their last dozen games has been decided by eight points or less. At home, on the road, as a favorite, as an underdog – it doesn’t seem to matter. Hence the Heat’s consistent results – they cash underdog bets, but struggle mightily in this favorite’s role. To put that in perspective, the Heat haven’t cashed a single winning bet at -3 or higher since January 3rd against (at the time) slumping Detroit. The Heat went balls to the wall in New Orleans last night, losing by a single point in double overtime. The game was extremely intense and fairly physical; tough to recover from without rest on the second night of back-2-backs after a week off. This is not exactly a ‘bet-on’ quote from Eric Spoelstra either, following last night’s crushing loss: "We have to forge ahead regardless of what emotions we're feeling. All these moments can benefit us, and I truly believe they will. We are so close to getting over the hump." The Grizzlies came out of the All Star Break saying all the right things about NOT tanking and trying hard every night. Head coach JB Bickerstaff: "We may have our shortcomings, but our effort and competitive nature are still there." Marc Gasol: “I’m not looking at the standings. I have not looked at the standings in a long time. Obviously, the season is not going the way that we all envisioned. The feeling that you have, you shouldn’t be looking at the standings. You concentrate so much on the day-to-day and just kind of resetting and understanding what you need to do and improve as a player at the same time. You still have a lot that should be enjoyed and a lot you still have to play for, so you still have to improve as a basketball player and work on other stuff.” The markets are reacting to the Tyreke Evans rib injury last night (officially listed as ‘questionable’ here), betting this pointspread up in early action. But Memphis just played five straight games without Evans before the All Star Break, cashing winning bets in competitive games at Indiana, at Detroit and at home against Utah. The Grizz are 5-0 ATS in their last five tries on the second night of back-2-backs; Miami is sub .500 in that role. Bottom line: too many points for a team that can’t lay points! Big Ticket: Take the Grizzlies. |
|||||||
02-24-18 | Washington -2.5 v. California | 68-51 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
Take Washington (#595) The Huskies didn’t do anything particularly special to beat the Bears by double digits in the first meeting between these two teams. In fact, Washington was downright sloppy, committing 20 turnovers while struggling to contain Cal on the offensive glass. They still won and covered as 9.5 point favorites. Washington is coming off a truly ugly clunker at Stanford on Thursday. This team has been ‘bet-on’ all the way after lousy games. Off a 25 point loss at Oregon, the Huskies covered wire-2-wire in a double OT thriller against Oregon State two days later. Off a bad home loss to Utah, Washington responded with a 23 point blowout over Colorado two days later. And that’s just here in February! This is a team we want to support off a poor effort. The entire squad appears primed for a bounceback. Sparkplug Matisse Thybulle collected a career-high 26 points in Washington’s win over Colorado, but fouled out and shot 2-for-8 from three in a frustrating outing at Stanford. Guard David Crisp has a similar skillset, but he too was awful on Thursday, with more turnovers than made shots. As a team, the Huskies lacked energy from the opening tip. I’m not expecting that to happen twice in a row as they step down in class against a PAC-12 bottom feeder tonight. Since beating Stanford on December 30th, Cal has done exactly what they were expected to do – lose consistently. The Bears lost four starters and their coach last offseason, projected as the PAC-12’s worst team. With a 1-13 SU record since that win over Stanford, it’s not like Cal is loaded with confidence and energy themselves; with both offensive and defensive stats that are ugly enough to merit that record. Cheap price to lay with the superior team against a foe with very little homecourt edge these days. Take Washington. |
|||||||
02-24-18 | Louisville v. Virginia Tech -4 | 75-68 | Loss | -102 | 2 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Virginia Tech (#538) (Abbreviated write-up for this early tip) Plain and simple – this is a case of two teams headed in opposite directions right now. Louisville faced the easiest schedule in the ACC over the first half of the campaign. They’re paying for that stretch of relative weaklings now – they’ve got the toughest closeout stretch in the ACC and it’s not going well. Louisville has just been blown out by Duke and North Carolina in their last two games, part of a 2-5 SU and ATS run since the end of January. The offcourt distractions surrounding the program this week certainly haven’t helped matters. Virginia Tech, on the other hand, is clicking on all cylinders: 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS in their last five ballgames including confidence inducing wins at Virginia and right here on this floor against Clemson. Seth Greenburg’s team has focused on defense of late and it’s showed, holding foes to 40% shooting, 31% from three point range during this five game span. And with the Hokies bench stepping up strong of late, Virginia Tech’s improved depth is primed to wear down a Cardinals team that isn’t responding well to adversity these days. Take Virginia Tech. |
|||||||
02-23-18 | Spurs v. Nuggets -3 | 119-122 | Push | 0 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
Take Denver (#816) At some points, the betting markets are likely to realize that this is Greg Popovich’s weakest team of the decade, especially with no timetable for Kawhi Leonard’s return. So far, that hasn’t happened, leaving us with legitimate value betting against a San Antonio team that absolutely, positively deserves to be in the underdog role in Denver tonight. The results do not lie. Let me start with an excerpt of my last anti-Spurs write-up….. when San Antonio travelled right here to the Pepsi Center in Denver before the All Star Break. Numbers have been adjusted slightly to reflect current realities: “Over the course of the last decade plus, San Antonio has generally been a ‘bet-on’ team during their annual ‘rodeo’ road trip. But it sure doesn’t feel like San Antonio is about to go on a run this year. The Spurs are a sub .500 team since the calendar turned to 2018, just 10-13 SU in their last 23 ballgames. They’ve lost every single road game (in SU fashion) to a .500 or better opponent since before Christmas. In fact, San Antonio has a grand total of TWO wins all year on the road vs. .500 or better opponents. One of those wins came at Miami in the very first week of the season, the other came by a single bucket at Portland when the Blazers were slumping badly.” Even with LaMarcus Aldridge back in the lineup tonight, the Spurs are primed to get smacked around in Denver. Very quietly, waaaay underneath the radar, the Nuggets have knocked off the Thunder, Spurs, Bucks and Warriors as part of a 6-1 SU and ATS run here in February – beating good teams, by margin. Mike Malone gets defensive minded big man Mason Plumlee back in the lineup, with Paul Millsap expected to follow shortly. Look at this ‘bet-on’ quote from Coach Michael Malone coming out of the break: "It's just great to have those guys back. We'll figure out who plays and when they play, but being healthy with 24 games to go (is) a good thing to be." Take the Nuggets. |
|||||||
02-23-18 | Heat +2.5 v. Pelicans | 123-124 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#809) I could do this write-up in a single sentence: I trust Eric Spoelstra to have his team ready in the first game following the break one heck of a lot more than I trust Alvin Gentry in the exact same spot. Look no further than last year for a prime example. The Heat and the Pelicans finished with comparable records and comparable power ratings; both lottery bound squads. But Miami came out of the break notching back-2-back blowouts (including their first game back, as a road underdog). In 2016, they came out of the break and won outright on the road as ten point dogs. In 2015, they won by 24 on the road in their first game after the break. In 2014, it was back-2-back road wins coming out of the break, including an 18 point blowout as underdogs. Now that, folks, is a track record worthy of support! And it’s surely worth noting Miami’s current 11-1 ATS run against opponents with a winning record – no ‘mediocre’ team steps up in class better than the Heat do. Miami with extra rest? How about 5-1 ATS this year, once again showing that Spoelstra is as ‘bet-on’ as it gets in spots like this one. And these Spoelstra – Gentry matchups have certainly worked in Miami’s favor, with Miami going 4-1 ATS in the five previous head-2-head meetings. New Orleans, however, covered the first meeting between these two teams, winning 109-94 at Miami just before Christmas. Of course, the Pelicans had DeMarcus Cousins for that game, and the Heat didn’t have Hassan Whiteside patrolling the low post. That situation is reversed tonight. And New Orleans also enjoyed an outlier shooting effort from three point range, nailing 15 of 25 from beyond the arc. I’m not expecting a repeat performance. New Orleans came out of the break last year by suffering a 30 point home loss to Houston, and they followed that up with a loss as chalk in their next game. They didn’t cover as chalk coming out of the break in 2015 either. Coming off three straight wins against struggling foes heading into the break (the Nets, Lakers and Pistons), I’m not expecting the Pelicans ‘A’ game here. Live dog! Take the Heat. |
|||||||
02-23-18 | Ohio State -1.5 v. Indiana | 80-78 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Ohio State (#835) Let me start with an excerpt from what I wrote about Indiana prior to their loss at Nebraska on Tuesday: “Indiana has won four straight for the first time since their 2016 non-conference slate. But a closer look shows that the Hoosiers have been taking advantage of a break in their schedule – they’ve faced the bottom four teams in the Big 10 (Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota and Rutgers; a combined 12-52 in conference play) to earn this four game streak! Coming off a ‘hot shooting’ game in a two point win at Iowa (55% from two point range and 58% from three point range), don’t expect those Hoosiers shots to fall at the same clip against the Huskers strong defense.” The Hoosiers actually outshot Nebraska 45% to 40% in that game, but they couldn’t control the defensive glass (17 offensive rebounds for the Huskers compared to 22 defensive rebounds for the Hoosiers). Indiana notched only ten assists, compared to their 17 turnovers. Indiana is clearly good enough to beat Big 10 weaklings, but they’re not the type of team I trust to step up in class, even on senior night in Bloomington. Ohio State is still very much in contention for the Big 10 regular season title under first year head coach Chris Holtmann. His quote, talking about his senior leaders Jae’Sean Tate, Kam Williams and Andrew Dakich: “They’re the reason for the kind of year we have had. Great leadership, guys that are about doing the right stuff, good players that have worked hard to get to this point.” Tate: “We were picked to be one of the last teams in the Big Ten, and being here in the top tier is all because of that. We really love each other.” Junior Kieta Bates-Diop who just graduated and is likely to play in the NBA next year. “We just talked about in the locker room how things can cloud your judgment and thoughts. Right now, the focus is winning. Now it’s Indiana. Then it’s the Big Ten tournament, then the NCAA Tournament. We’re just trying to win games and that is what I’m thinking about.” These are ‘bet-on’ quotes all the way from a team that has won SU on the highway in B10 play at Purdue, Minnesota, Northwestern, Rutgers, Iowa and Wisconsin. Ohio State is flat out better than Indiana – even Archie Miller knows it: “We have a quick turnaround now against Ohio State…. We need a group that’s really dialed in to play a team that is trying to win a league championship on our home floor.” Good luck with that, coach! Take Ohio State. |
|||||||
02-22-18 | Thunder v. Kings +7.5 | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Sacramento (#560) To say that the Oklahoma City Thunder have been poor favorites is something of an understatement. The numbers do not lie. OKC has been favored by -6 or higher on 25 previous occasions this season. They have covered a grand total of seven of those pointspreads; 7-18 ATS in this role. On the highway, those numbers are even worse. The Thunder’s most RECENT pointspread cover as road chalk of higher than -5 came back on October 28th at Chicago. They’ve lost OUTRIGHT as road favorites at Portland, Denver, Minnesota, Utah, San Antonio, New Orleans, Dallas, Orlando, Brooklyn, New York, Phoenix and Washington. Yes, that’s more SU losses than pointspread covers in this role….. I left one game out of OKC’s road losses – their previous game here in Sacramento against the Kings when the Thunder lost outright as 10.5 point chalk. That loss in this series wasn’t new or different. The Kings have hung tough repeatedly with the Thunder in every recent meeting here at the Golden 1 Center: three SU wins and a single four point loss in OKC’s last four visits. Now that’s a head-to-head matchup that works for the underdog! Sacramento went into the break as competitive underdogs; 7-2 ATS in their last nine tries catching more than five points. Their young tandem of DeAaron Fox and Willie Cauley Stein are true building blocks, and with the likes of Vince Carter and Zack Randolph coming off the bench, there’s no shortage of veteran leadership for this squad coming OUT of the break. Expect a tight game. Take the Kings. |
|||||||
02-22-18 | UCLA v. Utah -2.5 | 78-84 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
Take Utah (#610) Utah has improved by leaps and bounds in recent weeks, with grad transfer point guard Justin Bibbins finally starting to develop some positive chemistry with his teammates. The Utes have won four straight (3-1 ATS, the lone non-cover coming by a half point in a comfortable victory), sparked by Bibbins – he’s only committed four turnovers in those four games combined. And Utah has a little bit of a chip on their collective shoulders based on the results of the first meeting. UCLA was hot early, leading 19-7 four minutes into the game. Utes head coach Larry Krystowiak: “I remember it well. They had 19 points four minutes into the game, which according to my math puts them on pace for about 190 points, which would have been a new record. They throttled us pretty good.” And let’s not underestimate Utah’s home court advantage in Salt Lake City – they’ve won and covered each of their last four on this floor, with only two ATS losses in eleven previous lined home games. UCLA doesn’t force many turnovers on defense, ranked among the bottom teams in the country (#334) in turnover percentage. That’s been a real problem for the Bruins in hostile road environments; hence the SU and ATS losses at Arizona State, Oregon, Oregon State and Stanford in PAC-12 action. And Steve Alford’s lack of depth forced him to play three starters 40+ minutes against Oregon last weekend. Depth matters in altitude and the Bruins were (are) already a step slow on the defensive end of the court……Take Utah. |
|||||||
02-22-18 | Nets +8 v. Hornets | 96-111 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Brooklyn (#551) Last year, the Nets went into the All Star Break with a 9-41 record, lottery bound all the way. They came out of the break and played hard throughout the homestretch of the long NBA season: 11-15 SU, 17-9 ATS, legitimate moneymakers for their backers. Here’s the quote from Nets guard Spencer Dinwiddie: “I think anytime you can kind of get that mental clearance, clear your mind and just remove yourself for a second, come back and be able to re-focus, you can come back with a heightened intensity and a renewed sense of purpose. (The break) has been very good for us… We'd love to go .500 or roughly .500 or above .500 and kind of turn our season around a little bit to have a little more optimism heading into the offseason." The Nets will have point guard DeAngelo Russell back in the starting lineup for the first time since his early season injury, another motivation boost. Russell’s quote is all positive too: “I think there’s plenty of time to make the right strides going into the end of the season that can carry on into next year. I think everyone is coming on around the same time. I think the time is great for us to make something happen.” I’m expecting excellent defensive energy from Kenny Atkinson’s squad tonight after they limped into the break with seven consecutive losses. “ I think defensively we’ve slipped. That’s where it’s starts, that’s where it’s got to start for us. Charlotte has been nothing short of awful as big chalk this season. Here we are in late February and the Hornets have a grand total of three pointspread covers as favorites of -6 or higher all season. They’ve only notched two wins in the last month by enough to cover tonight’s pointspread. Both of those victories came against Atlanta. Take the Nets. |
|||||||
02-21-18 | USC v. Colorado +3 | 75-64 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
Take Colorado (#770) There’s some legitimate bad blood between these two teams, an edge that works in Colorado’s favor tonight! Buffs head coach Tad Boyle wasn’t shy about criticizing the culture of the USC coaching staff last September after former Trojans assistant Tony Bland was indicted on federal charges for bribery and fraud. Andy Enfield remembered that criticism when these two teams met the first time. With the Trojans up 12, and less than 30 seconds to play, Enfield called a time-out in a dribble-out spot to run a play for Chimezie Metu. Tad Boyle after the game: "I will say this: that was a very strategic timeout from Andy Enfield and I'm not going to forget about it, and neither will our players." Boyle was right. Buffs senior leader George King earlier this week: “We think about it. We think about it.” Point guard McKinley Wright: “I didn't grow up that kind of player. But it ticked us off, knowing those guys had the win and they wanted to draw up some type of alley-oop or some type of dunk for Metu. We didn't forget it. We're looking forward to the game...We owe those guys one." Colorado had 22 turnovers and had ten shots blocked in the first meeting, uncharacteristic of how the Buffs have played for most of the season. Boyle: “That’s 32 times we don’t even get the ball to the rim, which doesn’t give us an opportunity to make a shot, doesn’t give us an offensive rebound, doesn’t get us to the foul line. Turnovers that lead to layups, turnovers that lead to 3s are huge.” And no team in the PAC-12 has as sharp of a home/road dichotomy than the young Buffaloes. Since the start of conference play, Colorado is 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS in Boulder but just 1-7 SU/2-6 ATS on the highway. That’s the type of home/road dichotomy worth noting….. USC just lost veteran leader Bennie Boatwright to a season ending injury, a legit NBA prospect and the team’s second leading scorer, rebounder, shot blocker and assist man. Travelling to altitude, the loss of Boatwright matters for USC’s depth as well as their on-court abilities. It’s surely worth noting that the Trojans went 0-3 SU on their most recent road trip, losing at UCLA, Arizona State and Arizona….. Take Colorado. |
- Early Lines
- High Limits
- NEW VIP Rewards
- VIP Program
- Mobile Betting
- Crypto
- VIP Program
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting!
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting
- 48 Hour Payouts
- 35% Crypto Bonus
- Live Betting
- Mobile Friendly
Guaranteed Winners or your money back and Free Picks in the NFL football, NBA basketball, MLB baseball, NCAA college football and basketball, Nascar Racing, Arena Football nhl hockey leagues and more.
We are part of the internets Premier Sports Handicappers League with full documentation of all members on this sports betting news and info portal. Free Membership, Join Today and start Winning!
For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.