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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-02-18 | Michigan +7 v. Villanova | Top | 62-79 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 54 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Michigan (#601) My clients and I cashed a winning bet on Michigan in their Big 10 Tourney Championship Game victory over Purdue. We cashed AGAINST the Wolverines in their ‘lucky to survive and advance’ game against the Houston Cougars. We cashed a winning Big Ticket wager on Michigan vs. both Texas A&M and Loyola – Chicago. We probably should have cashed a third Big Ticket supporting the Wolverines, but they choked away a double digit lead in the final minute against Florida State, resulting in a push. But the bottom line is that I’ve had a pretty darn good read on my alma mater here in the postseason, and I have no hesitation riding Michigan one more time in a game that has ‘battle down to the final possession’ written all over it! I have three basic points. First, Michigan has survived repeatedly without their ‘A’ game; Villanova isn’t going to play (or shoot) any better than they did on Saturday Night. They opened the game on a 22-4 run in the first seven minutes, on fire from the get-go. They finished the night shooting 55% from the floor and a Final Four record with 18 made three pointers. Head coach Jay Wright: “It was one of those nights (where every shot was falling).” I’m not expecting a repeat performance against the suffocating Wolverines perimeter defense; a defense that has only allowed 24% shooting from beyond the arc in this tournament. And Michigan keeps winning despite not playing 40 minutes of great basketball (with the exception of the A&M game). They’ve got a better game in them than the last two we’ve seen. ‘Nova doesn’t. Second, every team gets tested on their way to the title – when you go back and look through historical results, a 6-0 SU, 6-0 ATS run to win the title is an extremely rare occurrence. ‘Nova has won each of their first five tourney games by a dozen points or more, going 5-0 ATS. They’ve only played four games decided by single digit margins since the beginning of February; not as battle tested in close games as Michigan. ‘Nova lost three of those SU and ATS, all as favorites, and failed to cover as chalk in a one point victory in the fourth. I’m not convinced that ‘Nova will respond well to a tight game during crunch time. Lastly, the value equation really points towards the Wolverines in this title game tilt. ‘Nova has an enormous public bandwagon due to their tourney ATS success, winning and covering every previous game. The Wildcats also have an enormous wiseguy bandwagon thanks to their ‘off-the-charts’ advanced metric offensive numbers, the second best statistical offense in college hoops over the past DECADE. With that type of a betting bandwagon – both public and wiseguys loving ‘Nova – there’s clearly (to this bettor at least) some added value on the Wolverines side of the equation. I’m going to ride Michigan one last time without hesitation in a game that should be a hotly contested battle, not a blowout. Big Ticket: Take Michigan. |
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03-31-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Michigan -5 | Top | 57-69 | Win | 100 | 124 h 21 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Michigan (#812) The Final Four is where teams like Loyola – non-elites who got hot at the right time, and faced the right draw – tend to go home. Yet when you’re as hot as Loyola has been in this tourney – four straight wins as an underdog, three of them coming in hotly contested, down-to-the-wire finishes – you build up a pretty big betting bandwagon. That’s why the Ramblers are an overvalued commodity heading into their Final Four matchup with the Wolverines. Betting markets focus on statistical profiles. The Ramblers have an impressive statistical profile. They rank in the Top 20 nationally in effective field goal percentage from both two point range and three point range on offense. And Loyola ranks in the Top 25 nationally in defensive efficiency; putting up impressive numbers on both ends of the court. Throw in a 32-5 SU record and a 23-9-1 ATS record – the single best pointspread record in the country – and you can understand why the Ramblers have a BIG betting bandwagon supporting them right now. Who wants to bet against Sister Jean? We do, that’s who! A 98 year old nun was able to keep the spotlight from shining too brightly on the kids who actually won the games leading up to the Final Four, but all of that changes here. A team with no history of dealing with the spotlight and a group of players who have never anticipated being on this stage are likely to have a moment or two (or three, or four) where this stage gets a little bit too big for them. And the cavernous Alamodome is no friendly shooting venue for kids who haven’t been on this type of stage before. No disrespect to Miami, Tennessee, Kansas State or Nevada, but none of that quartet is as good as Michigan. In addition, that quartet of foes was notably short on team chemistry – only three senior starters combined on the four teams. Nevada was largely made up of transfers; K-State’s best low post threat was hurt and a non-factor. Loyola is no joke, but they’re taking a legitimate step up in class here. Michigan has shown repeatedly under John Beilein that the stage is never too big and the program is (almost) never in rebuilding mode. The Wolverines team chemistry on offense can only be described as ‘spectacular’, despite their rough shooting here in the tournament. And that rough shooting is another reason why this play gets bumped up to Big Ticket status. The Wolverines went into their opening round matchup having scored at least a point per possession in each of their 18 previous NCAA Tournament games. Michigan is here in the Final Four despite reaching a point per possession only once in their first four tourney games – the one with the appropriate amount of prep time (vs. Texas A&M). Michigan bombed the Aggies for 99 points: 62% from the floor, 14-24 from three point range. Beilein with extra time (but not too much time, like the extended layoff after the Big 10 tourney) is as ‘bet-on’ as it gets and the Wolverines lack of ATS success in the Big Dance has them as a legitimate value laden squad in a game I expect them to win by a comfortable margin. Big Ticket: Take Michigan. |
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03-23-18 | Syracuse v. Duke -11 | Top | 65-69 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Duke (#876) My clients and I cashed winning bets on Syracuse in all three of the Orange victories last week, as Syracuse knocked off Arizona State, TCU and Michigan State, all as underdogs. That was then, this is now. Jim Boeheim’s squad enjoys a major advantage against teams that haven’t seen their 2-3 matchup zone before. In three tourney games, the Orange have held foes to 0.89 points per possession and 25.6% shooting from three point range. But Syracuse won’t have that same edge vs. fellow ACC foe Duke. ACC foes -- teams that see this zone every year – hit 8% higher from three point range for the season, and averaged more than a point per possession. The Blue Devils faced Syracuse less than a month ago. The Syracuse zone gave them fits on the perimeter, as Duke hit only 2-18 from three point range. It didn’t matter. Coach K designed a gameplan to feed his bigs, throwing over the zone into the low post. Wendall Carter and Marvin Bagley combined to shoot 13-20 from the floor, finishing with 35 points and 17 rebounds between them. That’s a matchup edge the Blue Devils know how to exploit – they’ve been running the same defense themselves for the better part of the last six weeks -- and that matchup edge hasn’t gone away. There’s one major weakness for Jim Boeheim’s defensive approach – it affects their defensive rebounding in a negative way. For the season, Syracuse ranks #240 in the country at controlling the defensive glass – they give up waaaaaaay to many second chance looks. Michigan State had a 29-7 edge on the offensive glass against the Orange last Sunday, but they kept missing their second chance tries. Duke is the #1 offensive rebounding team in the COUNTRY, capturing more than 39% of their own misses. Expect controlling the glass to be a major problem for the Orange tonight. Syracuse scored a grand total of 44 points in the first meeting, and they’ve yet to crack 60 in the NCAA Tournament. This can’t be a surprise for a team that hasn’t been able to put the biscuit in the basket all year, ranked #325 in effective field goal percentage offense; dismal from two point range (#323) and three point range (#309). In a game totaled in the 130’s, Syracuse’s offensive weaknesses are likely to doom their chances. Expect a blowout. Big Ticket: Take Duke. |
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03-22-18 | Texas A&M v. Michigan -3 | Top | 72-99 | Win | 100 | 55 h 20 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Michigan (#818) This one is real simple. Michigan did NOT bring their ‘A’ game last weekend in either contest; particularly on the offensive end of the court. The Wolverines went into their game against Montana having scored at least a point per possession in 18 consecutive games against Big 10 competition. Yet Michigan didn’t manage to reach a point per possession in their wins over Montana or Houston last weekend. They were awful from long distance as well, hitting just 28% from beyond the arc in their two games at Wichita. That leaves Michigan without a significant betting bandwagon here, an undervalued commodity heading into Thursday’s showdown at the Staples Center in LA. Wolverines head coach John Beilein: “We’re doing some things that I don’t know and we got to address them and try to get better at them. I think we made some of the mistakes — we have only lost seven games, but those seven losses I felt we did some things that just don’t make sense and they’re not characteristic.” I concur wholeheartedly; and I certainly don’t expect another ‘not characteristic’ offensive game here. To survive and advance without playing particularly well on offense in either game is a testament to Beilein’s coaching acumen. And when we look at Beilein with extra time to prepare for the second weekend of NCAA Tournament Games, the results are consistently strong even dating back to his tenure at West Virginia; a ‘bet-on’ coach in these settings . Billy Kennedy has no similar track record in tournament settings, and his Aggies, unlike the Wolverines, can’t play much better than they did last weekend. Kennedy has turned to frosh point guard TJ Starks here in the Big Dance, averaging 33 minutes and 18 points last weekend compared to 21 minutes and 10 points during the regular season. I don’t want a frosh point guard – even a very good one – against Beilein’s defense in this pointspread range. The Aggies interior size helped them dominate North Carolina last Sunday, but their lack of quickness is poised to doom their chances against the Wolverines on Thursday. VERY cheap price to lay with the superior team coming off a shoddy showing, in a game that I expect them to win by margin! Big Ticket: Take Michigan. |
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03-17-18 | Houston +3 v. Michigan | Top | 63-64 | Win | 100 | 31 h 57 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Houston (#529) I could do this write-up in five words: “Houston is the real deal.” Frankly, this short pointspread clearly tells us that I’m not the only one with this opinion – the sharp $$ believes in Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars as well. Houston is 10-2 SU in their last dozen ballgames, including impressive wins over Cinci, Wichita State and San Diego State, among others, as well as a spread covering one point loss to the Bearcats in the AAC Championship Game. The AAC was no joke this year – it’s not like the Cougars aren’t battle tested; especially considering their non-conference slate that saw them knocking off Providence, Temple, Arkansas and Wake Forest, among others. Houston’s statistical profile is truly impressive, despite their relatively tough slate. The Cougars hit their free throws. They defend intensely, both on the perimeter and in the paint. Houston has low post size to bang with the Wolverines. They don’t turn the ball over on offense, and force turnovers in bunches on defense. They are an excellent three point shooting team as well; ‘bet-on’ in every sense of the word here in March. There’s more to the story than just my belief in the Cougars. Let’s start with Michigan’s power rating number. The Wolverines pulled off two ‘major’ upsets in the Big 10 Tournament, knocking off Michigan State and Purdue in back-2-back games. As a result of those two VERY late wins against quality foes, the Wolverines power ratings took a big jump upwards. The only problem with pricing Michigan higher now than before the Big 10 Tourney? Simple – the Wolverines were far more interested in a Big 10 Tourney title than their opponents were. Throw in a late, somewhat fraudulent cover against Montana in their Big Dance opener and suddenly, after an extended stretch as an undervalued commodity moneymaker, RIGHT NOW Michigan is an overvalued squad after going 9-1 ATS in their last ten games. The Wolverines public bandwagon is rather large these days. John Beilein has a tremendous track record as a tournament head coach, both in the Big Dance and in the Big 10 Tourney. But the results clearly show that when the Wolverines get knocked out of the tourney, they’re getting knocked out in the Saturday/Sunday games, not in the Thursday/Friday games where Beilein has extra time to prepare. Notre Dame beat ‘em in this spot in 2016; Kentucky did it on the second weekend of the tourney in 2014; and Houston is primed to do it on Saturday Night. Big Ticket: Take Houston. |
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03-16-18 | Providence v. Texas A&M -2 | Top | 69-73 | Win | 100 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Texas A&M (#868) Providence is anything but fresh as they travel to Charlotte to take on Texas A&M. The Friars truly went ‘balls to the wall’ last weekend to nail down their bid, playing three OT games in three days against Creighton, Xavier and Villanova. For a team that lacks depth, I’m expecting some hangover effects from that intense effort; especially given the deflating aspect of the OT loss in the Big East Tourney Championship Game. Ed Cooley has four key cogs on his roster, a quartet who all average between 30 and 32 minutes per game. But Kyron Cartwright played 40+ minutes in all three games last week. So did Rodney Bullock. Both Jalen Lindsey and Alpha Diallo went 40+ in two of the three games. I’m not expecting the Friars to be able to match their intensity from the Big East Tourney, and they’re likely to have a very difficult time finding offense against a seriously undervalued A&M squad that offers real ‘bet-on’ potential moving forward. Here’s what Auburn head coach Bruce Pearl said about the Aggies just BEFORE Texas A&M pulled the outright upset over the Tigers on Auburn’s home floor: “This Texas A&M team was picked second or third [in the SEC]. Some people had them first….. They're big. They lead the SEC in rebounding and defense. It's great for our league that they're back and playing well. We know we're going to have our hands full on Wednesday." The Aggies were ranked as high as #5 in the country before the injury bug struck in January. They lost five straight games, then struggled to get everyone acclimated again once they got healthy. But things came together for Billy Kennedy’s squad down the stretch, notching wins over Kentucky, Auburn, Arkansas, Alabama and South Carolina, among others. They closed out the regular season with back-2-back road wins at Georgia and Vandy; proving once again that they can win away from home. But Texas A&M still hasn’t regained any sort of betting bandwagon – the type Providence has right now after three straight national TV covers last weekend. And after a one point loss in the rematch against ‘Bama – you remember Collin Sexton’s shot – in the SEC opener, the Aggies seem like a complete afterthought in the betting markets right now. Not for this bettor! Big Ticket: Take Texas A&M |
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03-10-18 | San Diego State -4.5 v. New Mexico | Top | 82-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take San Diego State (#533) There are three basic elements in play here. First, New Mexico is a great bet against teams that turn the ball over. Against teams that don’t turn it over and force the Lobos into a halfcourt game, New Mexico has repeatedly and routinely struggled. San Diego State has committed less than ten turnovers per game over their last five contests and the Lobos pressure created only 12 takeaways against the Aztecs in Albuquerque last month. For New Mexico to win tonight, they’ll have to execute their half court sets against a quality defense. I’m not convinced that’s going to go well. Second, San Diego State is a ‘mission’ team right now, ‘bet-on’ all the way. Aztecs senior leader Malik Pope was briefly suspended in late February after being accused of taking $1400 from an agent, missing one game before being reinstated. When he came back, it gave the team a major jolt of positive energy – the quotes coming out of this locker room were uniformly positive. San Diego State is 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS since; all four wins and covers coming against Mountain West heavyweights, not bottom feeders. Third, New Mexico is really up against it when it comes to the scheduling spot here. The Lobos didn’t clear out of the Thomas & Mack last night until after midnight Pacific Time. This afternoon local tip – thanks to the TV network demands – won’t help their tired legs as this game wears on. Only one Aztecs starter – Devin Watson – played more than 29 minutes last night, and all five starters finished in double digits. I expect San Diego State to be a notch or two ‘fresher’ this evening; a difference maker in this pointspread range. Points worth laying! Big Ticket: Take San Diego State. |
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03-09-18 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech +2 | Top | 66-63 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Texas Tech (#872) The Red Raiders gave us a little gut punch last night with poor execution in the final minute costing us a Big Ticket wager. That being said, my basic premise of Texas Tech as a ‘bet-on’ team primed to make a run in this tourney was spot on. Let me start with an extended excerpt from yesterdays’ write-up: “With all hands back on deck, Texas Tech is an undervalued commodity right now; a team primed to make a deep run in the Big 12 Tourney this weekend. Let’s not forget that the Red Raiders were 22-4 & ranked in the Top 10 when the injury bug struck. Senior point guard Keenan Evans suffered a toe injury and missed five games. Senior forward Zack Smith also missed extended time. Senior wing Justin Gray missed a pair of games during that skid as well. “All of those guys are healthy now. Evans looked 100%, scoring 23 points in 26 minutes in a much needed win over TCU last Saturday, snapping their skid. Gray and Smith combined for 39 minutes of action, and both guys have been practicing with their teammates all week. That gives the Red Raiders their full depth, with Chris Beard’s rotation going ten deep these days, optimal for conference tourney success. “How did unheralded Texas Tech rise up into the Top 10? Defense stands out. The Red Raiders are one of only two teams in the country who rank in the Top 15 in both effective field goal percentage allowed on defense and turnovers forced on defense. When you are pressuring opposing shooters AND forcing turnovers in bunches, you win games and cover pointspreads – period. And this is a STRONG bet-on quote from Chris Beard, just signed to a long term extension in Lubbock: “Anything you want in life, kind of like basketball, I think you have to have a plan for what you want. So we’d like to have a good March. Our plan is pretty specific. And one of the parts of our plan is we want to try to have more fun than anybody in college basketball this month. So, led by our seniors, we’re going to try to enjoy every moment. That’s what March is. I’m glad our guys are having fun.” West Virginia had a relatively easy ride against Baylor yesterday, forcing 20 Bears turnovers. That’s not likely to happen today against the Red Raiders. When Texas Tech beat West Virginia in January, they handled the Mountaineer ball pressure just fine, committing only 12 turnovers. Even with the injuries, West Virginia only forced 13 turnovers in the rematch in Morgantown. When Bob Huggins’ squad isn’t forcing turnovers in bunches, they’re struggling to win. It’s surely worth noting that three of the last four meetings between these squads were decided by a single point or in OT. Take the points; expect the outright upset. Big Ticket: Take Texas Tech |
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03-08-18 | Texas v. Texas Tech -6.5 | Top | 69-73 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Texas Tech (#706) With all hands back on deck, Texas Tech is an undervalued commodity right now; a team primed to make a deep run in the Big 12 Tourney this weekend. Let’s not forget that the Red Raiders were 22-4 & ranked in the Top 10 when the injury bug struck. Senior point guard Keenan Evans suffered a toe injury and missed five games. Senior forward Zack Smith also missed extended time. Senior wing Justin Gray missed a pair of games during that skid as well. All three of those guys are healthy now. Evans looked 100%, scoring 23 points in 26 minutes in a much needed win over TCU last Saturday, snapping their skid. Gray and Smith combined for 39 minutes of action, and both guys have been practicing with their teammates all week. That gives the Red Raiders their full depth, with Chris Beard’s rotation going ten deep these days, optimal for conference tourney success. How did unheralded Texas Tech rise up into the Top 10? Defense stands out. The Red Raiders are one of only two teams in the country who rank in the Top 15 in both effective field goal percentage allowed on defense and turnovers forced on defense. When you are pressuring opposing shooters AND forcing turnovers in bunches, you win games and cover pointspreads – period. That’s bad news for Texas tonight, on multiple fronts. The Longhorns aren’t expected to have their low post stud, Mohammed Bamba, available, as he’s dealing with a toe injury. Bamba is a difference maker: 13.0 points, 10.6 rebounds and 3.8 blocks per game. That leaves Shaka Smart with precious few options in the low post tonight for a team that is basically down to a six man rotation – depth is a HUGE concern for the Longhorns both tonight and moving forward. And the Longhorns weren’t exactly lighting it up away from home eve BEFORE the Bamba injury. They lost by double digits at Kansas, Kansas State, TCU and West Virginia down the stretch. And this is a STRONG bet-on quote from Chris Beard, just signed to a long term extension in Lubbock: “Anything you want in life, kind of like basketball, I think you have to have a plan for what you want. So we’d like to have a good March. Our plan is pretty specific. And one of the parts of our plan is we want to try to have more fun than anybody in college basketball this month. So, led by our seniors, we’re going to try to enjoy every moment. That’s what March is. I’m glad our guys are having fun.” Take the senior laden team tonight against the squad with no senior contributors. Big Ticket: Take Texas Tech |
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03-01-18 | Northwestern v. Penn State -5.5 | Top | 57-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Penn State (#560) Northwestern’s season ends today. The Wildcats have limped to the finish line; a major disappointment following last year’s 24 win campaign that ended their NCAA Tourney drought; the first time in the history of the program that Northwestern had won more than 20 games. That was then; this is now. The Wildcats head to Madison Square Garden in the midst of a six game losing streak. Three of those losses came as favorites; two more came as short underdogs – Northwestern hasn’t even been able to beat weaklings of late. Northwestern’s injury bug has been biting of late. Second leading scorer and rebounder Vic Law just suffered a season ender; key backcourt reserve Jordan Ash is out too. Senior big man Gavin Skelly is questionable at best and senior point guard Bryant McIntosh is dealing with a sore shoulder. This is NOT a healthy team heading to New York. Penn State dominated the first meeting between these two teams; a 78-63 home victory. The Nittany Lions were in control of the second meeting for about 29 minutes despite playing without starter Josh Reaves, but they went the final 11 minutes without scoring a single basket; outscored 19-6 during crunch time. It’s a loss Penn State hasn’t forgotten…. This is Penn State’s best team of the Pat Chambers era, and they’ve got a real chip on their shoulder after losing three straight ‘step up in class’ games to close out the regular season. From all indications, Nittany Lions star big man Mike Watkins will be healthy enough to suit up. And Penn State’s best player, Tony Carr – the leading scorer in the Big 10 this season – scored only half his average in the two games against NW, hitting only 7 of his 23 shot attempts. Carr has averaged more than 21 ppg since his last matchup against the Wildcats; a potential difference maker today. Penn State takes the Big 10 tourney seriously. They won their opener here last year, covering as chalk. They covered as underdogs in their 2016 game and went 2-1 SU/3-0 ATS while making the quarterfinals in 2015; riding a 5-0 ATS run in the Big 10 tourney into Thursday. Last, but not least, Northwestern has NOT been a good underdog at any point this season, unable to step up on a consistent basis. As dogs of +3 or higher, the Wildcats have been true money burners: 2-8 ATS in ten tries. That’s an under-the-radar angle worth riding here in a game that has ‘double digit win’ written all over it! Big Ticket: Take Penn State. |
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02-24-18 | Grizzlies +8.5 v. Heat | Top | 89-115 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Memphis (#505) Miami is a great underdog; cashing winning bets for my clients and I repeatedly in that role all season long. But when we look at Eric Spoelstra’s squad as a favorite, the pointspread results are downright ugly. At -3 or higher this season – dating back to Day 1 – the Heat are just 3-13 ATS. Betting against Miami in this role has cashed at an 81% clip. Miami plays tight games. Every night. The results don’t lie. Each of their last dozen games has been decided by eight points or less. At home, on the road, as a favorite, as an underdog – it doesn’t seem to matter. Hence the Heat’s consistent results – they cash underdog bets, but struggle mightily in this favorite’s role. To put that in perspective, the Heat haven’t cashed a single winning bet at -3 or higher since January 3rd against (at the time) slumping Detroit. The Heat went balls to the wall in New Orleans last night, losing by a single point in double overtime. The game was extremely intense and fairly physical; tough to recover from without rest on the second night of back-2-backs after a week off. This is not exactly a ‘bet-on’ quote from Eric Spoelstra either, following last night’s crushing loss: "We have to forge ahead regardless of what emotions we're feeling. All these moments can benefit us, and I truly believe they will. We are so close to getting over the hump." The Grizzlies came out of the All Star Break saying all the right things about NOT tanking and trying hard every night. Head coach JB Bickerstaff: "We may have our shortcomings, but our effort and competitive nature are still there." Marc Gasol: “I’m not looking at the standings. I have not looked at the standings in a long time. Obviously, the season is not going the way that we all envisioned. The feeling that you have, you shouldn’t be looking at the standings. You concentrate so much on the day-to-day and just kind of resetting and understanding what you need to do and improve as a player at the same time. You still have a lot that should be enjoyed and a lot you still have to play for, so you still have to improve as a basketball player and work on other stuff.” The markets are reacting to the Tyreke Evans rib injury last night (officially listed as ‘questionable’ here), betting this pointspread up in early action. But Memphis just played five straight games without Evans before the All Star Break, cashing winning bets in competitive games at Indiana, at Detroit and at home against Utah. The Grizz are 5-0 ATS in their last five tries on the second night of back-2-backs; Miami is sub .500 in that role. Bottom line: too many points for a team that can’t lay points! Big Ticket: Take the Grizzlies. |
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02-20-18 | Ole Miss v. Missouri -7.5 | Top | 90-87 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Missouri (#532) The betting markets are making a remarkable assumption tonight, with the early $$ pouring in on Ole Miss as they travel to Missouri. The markets are saying that Ole Miss is fixed now that head coach Andy Kennedy has officially resigned, leaving the program under interim head coach Tony Madlock. I’m not buying that argument one iota. This Rebels team had won 20+ games nine times in the last eleven seasons, not a program that is used to ‘just playing out the string’ games in February. They’ve completely lost contact in every recent road game, losing by 33 at Tennessee, by 16 at LSU and by 17 at Mississippi State in their last three tries. Madlock is talking the talk: “It will be a tough game for us going on the road and of course with all the circumstances going on around the program, but I think our guys will rise to the occasion and go out and play hard.” But talking the talk and walking the walk are two very separate things. Quotes like this one from sophomore guard Breein Tyree stand out as the type of attitudes that departed head coach Andy Kennedy couldn’t deal with: “Obviously, I’m keeping my options 100 percent open because, at the end of the day, I have to do what’s best for me. I came to Ole Miss to be a Rebel. I love the university. Depending on the coaches they bring in, I’ll definitely look in. I’m not saying I’m transferring, I’m not saying I'm staying. I’m just keeping my options open.” Make no mistake about it – while Ole Miss is reeling, Missouri is coming to play tonight off their first loss in six games, at LSU on Saturday. Leading scorer Kassius Robertson said the team played ‘selfish’ in that one point defeat. Head coach Cuonzo Martin framed the loss in a positive light: “When there’s a level of comfort guys lose sight of what got you to the point of having success. That’s what happens. I think the guys will be fine.” And make no mistake about it – Missouri’s ‘A’ game is likely to be a mountain the Rebels cannot overcome. The Tigers are elite defensively, ranked in the Top 25 in effective field goal percentage against from both two point range and three point range. And with three different Tigers hitting better than 40% of their shots from three point range – Kassius Robertson, Jordan Barnett and Jordan Geist have 176 made 3’s between them – we can expect this margin to stretch as the game progresses. Big Ticket: Take Missouri. For additional reading check out these links from local sources: http://www.columbiatribune.com/sports/20180219/tigers-host-rebels-and-interim-head-coach-madlock http://www.gvnews.com/national/sports/martin-wants-mizzou-to-recapture-unselfish-play-after-lsu-loss/article_76491605-f447-58b0-9cbe-337079dfb219.html |
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02-14-18 | Nevada v. Boise State -2 | Top | 77-72 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Boise State (#788) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ Big Ticket winner supporting Nevada on Saturday in their 25 point blowout over San Diego State. The beauty of that result is that it gives us another prime opportunity to get involved with a Big Ticket sized wager with the Wolfpack tonight. One big difference though – this time, the clear play is AGAINST Nevada as they travel to Boise to take on the Broncos. Let me start with an excerpt from Saturday’s write-up supporting Nevada: This is the mother of all ‘step-up’ games for Nevada. Wolfpack head coach Eric Musselman was not amused by the Wolfpack’s performance against UNLV on Wednesday Night; their first home loss of the season, and dropping Musselman’s record at the Lawlor Center to 40-4 in his three years on the job. This Musselman quote really stands out: “Our defense stunk, our rebounding stunk, our loose-ball getting stunk……We played soft. I don’t know what else to say.” It was clearly a Nevada spot, and they played like it! But tonight’s game sets up very differently following that blowout win over the Aztecs. The Wolfpack are entering a truly brutal scheduling stretch, with road games at Boise, Utah State, UNLV and San Diego State in their next six games. Coach Musselman: “I was just wondering if the league office liked us or not. It’s as difficult a six-game stretch that we’ve had since I’ve been here." It’s not like Nevada has been going on the road and beating quality foes. Their road wins this season: at Santa Clara, Pacific, Hawaii, UC-Irvine, Air Force, San Jose, Colorado State and Fresno. Nevada was favored in each and every one of those ballgames – only Fresno is a decent team out of that bunch. This Wolfpack team is an overvalued commodity in a setting like this one – they’ve feasted on the weak. This is truly a statement game for the Broncos, a team that is in Joe Lunardi’s ‘First Four Out’ in the latest Bracketology . Boise lost by six in Reno earlier this season. Probable Mountain West Player of the Year, Boise’s senior playmaker Chandler Hutchinson, following that defeat: “We don’t feel like we got beat by a better team. We feel like we had some mental errors you can’t have on the road.” Boise is certainly a battle tested ballclub – nine of their last ten games have been decided by six points or less; a team that knows how to win the close ones. The Broncos are 13-0 at home this year, and their realistic chance for an at large bid rests on tonight’s performance. Count me in as a Broncos believer. Big Ticket: Take Boise State. For additional reading, check out these links from local sources: http://www.rgj.com/story/sports/college/nevada/2018/02/13/nevada-basketballs-most-difficult-stretch-season-starts-boise-state/334923002/ https://www.idahopress.com/blueturfsports/basketball/valentine-s-day-special-broncos-set-for-monster-showdown-with/article_2d458801-95f2-5a68-bd54-5032651db2d1.html |
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02-10-18 | San Diego State v. Nevada -5.5 | Top | 58-83 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Nevada (#660) This is the mother of all ‘step-up’ games for Nevada. Wolfpack head coach Eric Musselman was not amused by the Wolfpack’s performance against UNLV on Wednesday Night; their first home loss of the season, and dropping Musselman’s record at the Lawlor Center to 40-4 in his three years on the job. This Musselman quote really stands out: “Our defense stunk, our rebounding stunk, our loose-ball getting stunk……We played soft. I don’t know what else to say.” From a local columnist in the Reno papers, following the game: ‘(Musselman) questioned their toughness. He questioned whether or not they were even capable of playing sound defense. He wondered if they could even recover enough to finish in the top five of the Mountain West and get a bye out of the first round of the Mountain West tournament. You can be sure that the rest of (the week) is going to be a basketball boot camp for this Wolf Pack team.” San Diego State was the best team in the Mountain West Conference for most of Steve Fisher’s extended tenure as their head coach. That success has not carried over to the Brian Dutcher era. Following their demoralizing 18 point loss at Fresno on Tuesday, the Aztecs are just 1-5 SU on the highway in MWC play. They’ll likely be without key senior Trey Kell (ankle) again today. And San Diego State is winless against any of the top six teams in the conference, not stepping up in class particularly well these days. This game is a mismatch being priced like a competitive contest. Expect a rout! Big Ticket: Take Nevada. For additional reading, click on this link https://www.recordcourier.com/sports/pack-loss-to-rebels-a-disappointment/ |
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01-27-18 | Celtics +10 v. Warriors | Top | 105-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Boston (#509) The numbers don’t lie. Boston has been an underdog of +3 or higher on seven different occasions this season. The Celtics are 7-0 ATS in those games, consistently and repeatedly stepping up in class effectively, particularly on the highway. Golden State at -7 or higher? Just 16-21 ATS, moneylosers as big chalk. The Celtics have given the Warriors fits in every recent meeting. Boston was +7 at home in the first meeting, a game they won 92-88, holding Steph Curry and Klay Thompson to a combined 8-32 shooting. The Celtics won SU on this floor last year, a 99-86 victory as +7 underdogs. They won SU on this floor the previous season as well, as 11 point underdogs. Dating back even further with these Brad Stevens vs. Steve Kerr matchups, the Celtics lost by only three on this floor in 2015 as 18 point underdogs and by only two on this floor in 2014 as 11.5 point dogs. In the last ten meetings between these two teams, the Warriors have won by more than eight points only twice, and both of those games were played in Boston. In five meetings over the last three seasons, the Warriors have a grand total of ONE straight up win in regulation. The Celtics are the best defensive team in the NBA, by a fairly wide margin, allowing just 99.8 points per 100 possessions. Their January numbers are ‘off the charts’ good, holding foes to 95.3 points per 100 possession: 4.5 points BETTER than their elite season long numbers. Let’s not forget that the Celtics literally have an elite defender at every position. Based on the ‘real +/-‘ advanced metric defensive stats, the likes of Terry Rozier, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Al Horford and Aron Baynes all rank among the top players at their respective positions defensively, even with key defender Marcus Smart out tonight. Golden State isn’t covering pointspreads at home these days, a consistently overvalued commodity. In fact, the Warriors have a grand total of ONE pointspread cover on this floor since the last week of December; and that lone cover came by exactly half a point. The Celtics are live to WIN this game in SU fashion, and if they don’t, I expect them to battle the Warriors right down to the wire. Too many points! Big Ticket: Take the Celtics. |
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01-23-18 | Texas A&M -2.5 v. LSU | Top | 65-77 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Texas A&M (#553) My clients and I cashed a wire-2-wire winner with Texas A&M on Saturday in their double digit win over Missouri. Let me start with an excerpt from that write-up: “On Christmas Day, Texas A&M was ranked as the #5 team in the country. Then the injury bug started to bite, and it bit hard. Of the ten players in Billy Kennedy’s base rotation, only two guys have been able to suit up in every game. Starters DJ Hogg, Admon Gilder, Duane Wilson and Robert Williams all missed time, and the Aggies faced a very difficult opening part of their SEC schedule. “The end result from all those injuries? The Aggies are now sitting with a 1-5 record in SEC play. They’re at home. And they’re finally healthy again, coming off three strong days of practice sessions since their losing-streak snapping win over Ole Miss. And with all the key cogs healthy, let’s not forget how much playing time the role players have gotten in recent weeks; leaving the Aggies with depth, talent and the level of hunger that I’m looking for out of my home favorites.” With the win over Missouri, A&M is now 2-5 in SEC play. Remember, this team was #5 in the nation less than a month ago, and they’re healthy now. I’ve got a big ‘BUY’ sign on Billy Kennedy’s squad and their #12 ranked effective field goal percentage allowed on defense after holding the Tigers to 49 points over the weekend. Wilson, Gilder and Williams all missed the first meeting with LSU this season, while Hogg was very rusty in his first game back. The game was one that Texas A&M remembers well; a one point heartbreaking defeat at home thanks to a pair of three pointers in the final 12 seconds from LSU frosh point guard Tremont Waters, turning a five point Aggies lead into a loss. Now, with all hands on deck, A&M gets their shot at revenge; an elite, motivated ballclub that is undervalued in the betting markets following their rough start to SEC play. LSU went 2-16 in SEC play last year, and Will Wade’s first season on the job has had plenty of hiccups, particularly at home. The Tigers are just 2-4 SU in their last six home games where crowd support has been tepid at best, and their current three game overall skid doesn’t have the team playing with much confidence right now. Clear ‘bet-on’ vs. clear ‘bet against’ in a short turnaround revenge spot has this bettor stepping up his wager to Big Ticket size tonight! Big Ticket: Take Texas A&M. |
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01-20-18 | George Washington v. VCU -8 | Top | 63-87 | Win | 100 | 2 h 38 m | Show |
10* Take VCU (#532). Sorry, no time for a detailed write-up for this early start game. This link should explain VCU's extra motivation today, while GWU has been blown out repeatedly on the highway, a team with a glass chin.... http://www.richmond.com/sports/college/schools/virginia-commonwealth-university/as-vcu-looks-to-break-out-of-lull-against-george/article_68df6290-86eb-55ae-a51b-af38473cbe62.html |
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01-17-18 | Utah State +10 v. Boise State | Top | 67-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Utah State (#767) This is the mother of all ‘step-up’ spots for the Utah State Aggies tonight after they suffered their worst loss of the year at Nevada over the weekend; a game where the Wolfpack had the -13 spread covered less than ten minutes into the game. Aggies forward Dwayne Brown Jr was not amused: “We didn’t execute, we weren’t ready, we weren’t focused and it shows on the stat line……We can be sad and worry about or we can move on. I think we should move on and get ready for Boise. Yeah, we had turnovers, but it doesn’t define us as a team.” Head coach Tim Duryea was not amused either: “You have to set your jaw, dig your feet in and make a stand when you play here. We did not start the game that way. We made a little run there and got within five points, then showed no willingness to compete. … I thought we were really flat. Just really an embarrassing effort. A flat start, no resistance defensively, just not in the mindset to compete and compete as hard as you have to.” I’m expecting an ‘A’ level effort from the Aggies tonight – period. And this has been a remarkably competitive series, where taking points has been consistently profitable. Last year’s games were both Boise wins, by a combined total of five points. In fact, only once in the last eight meetings has either team won by more than six points. The -10 here is an outlier pointspread given the nature of this rivalry. And this is the mother of all ‘sandwich’ spots for the Boise State Broncos (read more about that here: https://www.idahopress.com/blueturfsports/basketball/broncos-focused-on-utah-state-with-big-game-at-nevada/article_e2c411b7-d1d0-5c85-a9fb-9fd25646d43a.html ) They’re coming off a huge win against conference favorite San Diego State, with an equally huge game in Reno against the other Mountain West heavyweight (Nevada) coming up next. Expect a battle, not a blowout! Big Ticket: Take Utah State. |
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01-12-18 | Nets +3.5 v. Hawks | Top | 110-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Brooklyn (#807) The Atlanta Hawks have the worst record in the NBA at 11-30. They are returning home off a long road trip; a classic ‘bet-against’ spot. And they are coming home off a rare victory, beating the Nuggets on Wednesday to close out their five game West Coast swing. That’s the key here. Atlanta doesn’t win back-2-back games very often. In fact, off a single victory this season, the Hawks are just 1-9 SU in their next game. Yet they are favorites tonight; needing to win – by margin – in order to cover the pointspread. Given that 10% track record in spots like this one, I have little hesitation fading the Hawks here. The Big Ticket piece of this equation comes from the Brooklyn side. Sure, Atlanta is a ‘bet-against’ team here, but are the Nets worth trusting here? You betcha! The Nets are coming off arguably their worst game of the season, blasted by 34 at home against the Pistons. First, it’s worth noting the spot – the Nets were off two heartbreakers, losing by one in OT to the Raptors and by two to the Celtics. Second, it’s worth noting how the Nets have done off an ugly defeat of late. After getting blasted in New Orleans, they beat the Heat in Miami by 24. After a bad loss to the Kings, they beat the Wizards by 35 in their next game. The Nets have been covering pointspreads as underdogs all year long, 19-9 ATS when catching +3 or higher. They won by 20 on this floor back in December, a wire-2-wire blowout. And from all indications, Brooklyn is a focused ballclub after getting outrebounded by 20 in that ugly loss to Detroit. Nets guard Spencer Dinwiddie, coming off a two point effort immediately following his career high 31 point showing on Monday: “This is our job and we're all here to play basketball. We came out here and laid an egg. That's inexcusable and unacceptable. We're going to look to flush it and play better next time out in Atlanta.” Head coach Kenny Atkinson: “(Detroit) dominated us in every phase of the game. There's not much more to say than that. The message is that we have to go to Atlanta and get this one back. We obviously don't like these types of losses. It hurts your individual pride and competitive spirit." Wrong team favored here! Big Ticket: Take the Nets.. |
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01-07-18 | Florida State v. Miami-FL -2.5 | Top | 74-80 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Miami (#840) Miami has matched up very well with Florida State in recent meetings, winning and covering three of the last four times these in-state rivals have battled. But Miami lost their only meeting against FSU last year, in revenge mode today. And there is a world of difference in terms of the expected energy these two teams are likely to bring to the table here. Throw in a major matchup problem for the road underdog and the case for Miami as short home chalk is very clear to this bettor. Florida State has had an intense stretch of games. They battled Duke down to the wire before falling short late last weekend, then battled North Carolina to the wire, escaping with a very satisfying one point win. This is not a ‘step-up’ spot for the road underdog. Miami, on the other hand, beat up bottom feeder Pitt last weekend, then played arguably their worst game of the year in a bad loss as road chalk at Georgia Tech earlier in the week. Head coach Jim Larranaga, following the defeat: “A comedy of errors, I would say. That’s not good basketball.” This is clearly a ‘step-up’ spot for the home favorite, following their debacle against the Yellow Jackets. Florida State matches up well against the likes of Duke and North Carolina. The Seminoles have the depth and athleticism to run with fast paced foes, and they’re at their best in the open court; ranked #23 in the country in quickest possessions on offense. But Miami isn’t going to run with anybody, ranked #326 in average possession length on defense. In fact, Miami is playing the type of defense that Roy Williams and Coach K can only dream about right now. The numbers do not lie. Miami ranks #6 overall in the country in defensive efficiency. They are top ten in the country at defending the two point shot AND the three point shot, with shot blockers Dewan Huell and Ebuku Izundu cleaning up the low post. With a balanced offense – four double digit scorers – and strong rebounding numbers as well, the price is VERY cheap to support an elite squad in a strong spot with matchups that work in their favor. Big Ticket: Take Miami. |
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12-13-17 | Portland State +15 v. Oregon | Top | 84-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Portland State (#735) Portland State came into the season as a complete afterthought in the college basketball world. The highly influential Blue Ribbon guide ranked the Vikings as the #8 team in the Big Sky Conference; coming off a 15-16 season and starting a new rebuild with first year head coach Barret Peery, and the markets haven’t given them an inkling of respect from Day 1 That hasn’t changed, as clearly evidenced by tonight’s pointspread as Portland State travels to face Oregon in Eugene, a ‘one-way-rivalry’ game for the smaller conference, in-state Vikings. And from all indications, the preseason predictions about the Vikings were completely off-base; a team with a highly talented trio of guards that is giving opponents fits right now! Seniors Bryce Canda and Deonte North as well as junior Michael Mayhew ensure that Portland State gets good guard play every night; exactly what I’m looking for in this pointspread range. The results have been rather dramatic, despite the betting market insistence that Portland State is an afterthought. The Vikings are 8-0 ATS in their eight previous lined games, an under-the-radar angle that still holds ample value moving forward. They’ve won straight up as an underdog five times, including back-2-back SU road wins as dogs last week. But the most impressive showings have come when Portland State has stepped up in class. This team led Duke at halftime before wearing down late. Coach K, after the game: “We beat a heck of a team tonight. "I thought Portland State played amazingly hard and well. They knocked us back.” Butler is an elite team again this year. Portland State lost to the Bulldogs by a single bucket, a wire-2-wire cover. They forced a whopping 28 turnovers in an outright upset over Stanford. Portland State is a bet-on team and the markets have shown no inclination to make the appropriate – and dramatic – adjustment to price them correctly moving forward. Oregon is really young and waaaaaay down after Dana Altman lost four of his five starters from last year’s 33 win Final Four squad. Altman is giving three freshmen major minutes. They lost at home as favorites vs. Boise, lost on neutral floors against Oklahoma and as a favorite vs. Connecticut. DePaul took the Ducks to overtime. Last time out Texas Southern hung wire-2-wire at Knight Arena, losing by only six as 20 point dogs. No surprise here if tonight’s game is every bit as tight! Altman knows what’s coming: “It is going to be a very difficult game. I knew that after seeing them in PK80 and how hard they played." Big Ticket: Take Portland State. |
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12-12-17 | Hawks +11.5 v. Cavs | Top | 114-123 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Atlanta (#501) The results do not lie. The Cleveland Cavaliers have been lined as double digit favorites of -10 or higher on eight different occasions this year. The Cavs are 0-8 ATS in those ballgames. In 14 previous home games this year, the Cavs have covered the spread exactly twice. Yet the early money has shown for Cleveland, with Tristan Thompson expected to rejoin the lineup (although Kevin Love is very questionable). Thompson will certainly help the Cavs long term, but I’m not expecting him to be an ATS difference maker in his first game back on the floor following an extended absence. Heck, this team has only won four games out of 27 so far this season by 12 points or more, what they’ll need to cover the spread tonight. The Cavs are a clear ‘bet-against’ vs. lesser competition at home in this pointspread range. The Hawks have given the Cavs all kinds of trouble in the first two meetings this season. Atlanta won SU at Cleveland in the first meeting and covered the spread wire-2-wire in a seven point home loss in the rematch – the Cavs have already gotten their ‘revenge’. Atlanta has been excellent off a loss: 5-0 ATS in their last five tries. And they’ve been excellent catching points on the highway – only one of their last eleven road losses has come by more than eleven points. Hawks head coach Mike Budenholzer benched his star point guard Dennis Schroeder down the stretch of the fourth quarter in the Hawks four point loss to the Knicks over the weekend. We’ve seen this happen a handful of times before, and Schroeder tends to bounce back STRONG in situations like this one. No surprise here if the Hawks are the ‘energy’ team this evening in a game where I expect them to battle down to the wire. Big Ticket: Take the Hawks. |
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11-29-17 | UNLV v. Northern Iowa +1 | Top | 68-77 | Win | 101 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Northern Iowa (#746) The Runnin’ Rebels have enjoyed a tremendous start to their season, going 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS. The only pointspread they didn’t cover came as 23 point favorites against Southern Utah, a game they won by 19. Most impressively, the Rebels destroyed Utah on a ‘neutral’ court here in Vegas as three point underdogs, winning by 27 while holding Utah to 2-20 shooting from three point range. No surprise, then, that the betting markets are sky high on the Rebels right now – heck, this team got votes for the AP Top 25 this week! And that’s why we’ve got tremendous value to support Northern Iowa tonight. The Panthers style is the Rebels kryptonite. UNLV wants to – needs to – push the pace. They’ve scored at least 85 points in every game, and, with the exception of Utah, they’ve all come against lesser competition, with UNLV laying at least -13.5 in their other five previous games. Northern Iowa isn’t going to run with anybody. The Panthers, unlike the Rebels, are truly battle tested after facing SMU, NC State and Villanova last week at the Battle for Atlantis. It’s surely worth noting that Ben Jacobson’s Panthers forced all three of those quality, major conference foes to play at their preferred slowdown pace. It’s also worth noting that Northern Iowa was good enough to win two of those games in SU fashion as underdogs while finishing +12 on the boards – this team has the interior size to bang with the big boys. And that’s so key! UNLV is loaded with bigs. Brandon McCoy and Shakur Juiston are both averaging 13 rebounds per game and the Rebels have a +15 rebounding margin per game. Don’t expect a margin like that against Northern Iowa, who is +8 (per game) on the boards themselves; a team that rebounds well from every position on the court. UNI got blown out at North Carolina in their season opener, allowing 86 points on 50% shooting. Since that time, they’ve held every foe – including Villanova – to 64 or less, playing one grinder after the next. No team has shot better than 43% against them in any of their last six games, a VERY sticky defensive ballclub. Northern Iowa has been home since last Saturday, confident and focused off the loss to the Wildcats. UNLV is in lookahead mode – they’ve got a bigtime showdown against Arizona at home on Friday Night. Facing a Rebels team not built for this style, leaving the friendly confines of Las Vegas for the first time all year, we can bet the Panthers with confidence. Big Ticket: Take Northern Iowa. |
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11-07-17 | 76ers v. Jazz -6.5 | Top | 104-97 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Utah (#714) Joel Embiid is the moral equivalent of Lebron James when it comes to how his team plays when he’s not on the floor. The Cavs have been nothing short of awful in games that LeBron sits in recent seasons, a ‘bet-against’ team all the way without their superstar on the floor. It’s the exact same story in Philly, without the dramatic pointspread adjustment when Embiid doesn’t play. The results do not lie. Over the last two seasons, the 76ers have played like a 50-win team with Embiid on the floor. When Embiid is on the bench, the Sixers have played like a 12 win team. He sat out one previous game here in the new campaign, at Toronto. The 76ers were nine point underdogs in that game. They were down by 17 after the first quarter in a 32 point, non-competitive defeat, their single worst loss of the season. Embiid is sitting tonight, which speaks volumes about how the coaching staff is viewing this West Coast road trip – they’ve got a winnable game against the Kings up next, followed by a ‘statement’ game against Golden State, then the two LA teams at the Staples Center. This team has won four straight, in anything BUT a ‘max intensity’ spot tonight. Utah throttled Philly in both meetings last year, winning by 17 at home and by 25 on the road. Embiid sat for one of those meetings and was limited to 19 minutes due to foul trouble in the other as the likes of Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors dominated the low post for the Jazz. Those matchup edges for Utah in the paint haven’t been altered in the offseason. And the Jazz are in a ‘circle the wagons’ spot off back-2-back losses, including a dismal 137-110 blowout loss at Houston over the weekend. We’ve seen the Jazz bounce back well before – their lone previous two game skid ended with back-2-back 15 point blowout wins. Quin Snyder’s squad is a perfect 4-0 ATS as home chalk this season, an emerging trend worth noting. And from all indications, the Jazz have this game circled after getting bombed by the Rockets. The Jazz hadn’t allowed an opponent to shoot better than 53.5% from the floor against them since last February, but they’ve allowed that in each of their last two games. Wing Joe Ingles: “It’s pretty hard to forget. That [expletive] was embarrassing, really.” Coach Snyder: “You just have to refocus and be solid. We weren’t disciplined. There’s always slippage throughout the season. We had some slippage last night and got our tails kicked by one of the best offensive teams in the league. You learn from it. We don’t ignore or forget about it.” The quote that stands out the most is this one, from center Ekpe Udoh following that loss to Houston: “It was a letdown. Next time we’ll be ready.” I concur! Big Ticket: Take the Jazz. |
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04-24-17 | Wizards +2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 101-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Washington (#519) I want the Wizards off a bad loss, like the one they suffered in Game 3 on Saturday. The Wiz weren’t ready from the get-go, trailing by 18 points after the first quarter and never cutting the lead to single digits thereafter. Let’s not forget that Washington is 5-1 ATS in their last six tries off a double digit defeat. Nor should we forget that the Wizards are 5-1 SU against the Hawks since last November, consistently taking care of business against Mike Budenholzer’s squad. The Wizards haven’t even played a good game yet in this series. John Wall has been the best player on the floor for either squad. But the Wizards supporting cast – most notably Otto Porter, Bradley Beal and Markieff Morris – are a combined 48-124 shooting in the series, under 39%. Their bench has been every bit as cold, a combined 27-70 (38%) from the floor. And the three point shooting has been even worse, with Porter, Beal, Morris and the bench combining to hit only 17-72 (23%) from downtown. Washington is a very good offensive team, and they’ve hung 109+ in two of the first three games despite that woeful shooting. Markieff Morris, following the Game 3 loss: “We’re missing wide open shots. We must have had, like, 30 of them in the first half alone. It seemed like our legs were heavy or something. It was one of those days. We’ll bounce back. I’m not taking nothing away from them, but we’re better than that.” John Wall agreed: “We had a lot of great looks, a lot of missed shot. We have to be better.” Here’s Wizards head coach Scott Brooks, talking about Bradley Beal: “You know what? I like his looks. I’ve been saying it for the last couple of games. I like his shots. He’s just going to have to keep shooting them. We’re going to have to keep getting him open looks like we have. Every player will go through a stretch of games, a few games, where you’re not going to shoot the ball well. He’ll bounce back.” The Wizards were -13 in Porter’s 24 minutes on Saturday, -17 in Morris’s 29 minutes and -22 in Gortat’s 29 minutes while all there members of the Hawks starting frontcourt were at +22 or higher; basically the exact opposite of what we saw in the first two games of this series. Conceptually, the Wiz are primed to shoot better tonight and the Hawks frontcourt is not primed to dominate at the same level. My pre-series opinion that the Wizards were the better of these two teams hasn’t changed one bit, and this is a ‘Grade A’ spot for the road underdog. Big Ticket: Take the Wizards. |
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04-15-17 | Bucks v. Raptors -7 | Top | 97-83 | Loss | -103 | 30 h 41 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Toronto (#504) I don’t put too much emphasis on regular season games, but this season series is worth noting. The Raptors played the Bucks three times with a healthy Kyle Lowry. They went 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in those games, including a pair of comfortable wins in Toronto by 22 and 16 points. I don’t put too much emphasis on what happened last year, but the Raptors playoff run is worth noting. Toronto lost Game 1 at home in the first round as seven point favorites against Indiana. Then lost Game 1 at home in the second round as four point favorites against Miami. Toronto went on to win both of those series in seven games, but they had little left in the tank for their Eastern Conference Finals matchup against the Cavs. I’m expecting a particularly focused effort from the home favorite in Game 1 this time around. And when Toronto comes with a focused effort, this team is borderline elite. Make no mistake about it — this year’s Raptors team is a good notch or two better than last year’s squad. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan both enter the playoffs with far less wear and tear on their bodies than they had a season ago; a notable difference from last year. The toughness and veteran playoff savvy of Serge Ibaka and PJ Tucker cannot be overestimated in comparison to last year’s squad, a team that came up just two wins short of their first-ever trip to the NBA Finals. Let’s be real about this - Toronto is consistently overlooked by the mainstream US audience. They’re not on TV —ever. The Bucks have the young superstar with the cool nickname — Greek Freak — while the Raptors continue to suffer from at least a modest branding problem. That creates a notch or two’s worth of extra value when this team is good, like they’ve been in recent seasons — it really does. The results don’t lie. The Raptors were a Top 5 ATS team this year and they were a Top 5 ATS team last year.Milwaukee has one unsolvable matchup problem against Toronto; a problem that isn’t going to go away. The Bucks are not bulky and physical in the paint. They are a miserable rebounding team — only the Mavericks had a lower rebound rate on misses than Milwaukee this year. Since picking up Tucker and Ibaka at the trading deadline, the Raptors have been a Top 5 team in rebounding margin. That means extra possessions for a focused home favorite. Big Ticket: Take the Raptors. |
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04-10-17 | Spurs -4.5 v. Blazers | Top | 98-99 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
Big Ticket: NBA Game of the Month: Take San Antonio (#713) Gregg Popovich, following the Spurs home loss to the Clippers on Saturday: “Our execution at both games, defensively and offensively, was very poor. Nobody's going to rest. Everybody's going to play….There's no back-to-backs. There's no bad travel or anything like that, so it's time for rhythm and that sort of thing. Hopefully we'll play better next week. They were more aggressive than we were. They wanted the game more. We were aggressive, got into them and showed the physicality and communication necessary to win against a good team for about six minutes of the third quarter, and that was that. We didn't have enough physical toughness to compete with them." That, folks, is a Hall of Fame head coach calling out his team two games before the playoffs start, on the heels of a home loss to the Lakers earlier in the week. And when Pops calls his team out in a spot like this, I’m all ears, a coach with a proven track record of getting his players to respond appropriately to his message. Expect a focused, concerted effort from the road favorite this evening. The Blazers just concluded a frenetic, furious run to the postseason, clinching the #8 seed with Denver’s loss last night. The Blazers are 16-5 SU since March 1st and 9-1 ATS in their last ten games overall, including a 7-0 SU and ATS run here in Portland. But after clinching last night, expect head coach Terry Stotts to manage his minutes very carefully tonight, most notably in regards to backcourt mates Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, both of whom rank in the Top 16 in minutes played per game this season. And make no mistake about it – the Blazers are NOT the same team without injured center Jusuf Nurkic in the lineup. Nurkic had an instant impact when he arrived from Denver at the trading deadline – just when Portland started to make their run. Since he got hurt, the Blazers have lost the rebounding battle in five straight games. They were bailed out by a 59 point effort by Lillard against Utah over the weekend, on a night where his teammates combined to produce only 42 points between them. Don’t expect another Lillard bailout tonight in a game worthy of Big Ticket status. Big Ticket: Take the Spurs. |
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04-01-17 | South Carolina v. Gonzaga -6.5 | Top | 73-77 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 23 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Gonzaga (#812) Looking back at my Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook from back in October (a ‘must read’ for serious college hoops bettors), most of the Final Four is no surprise. North Carolina, Oregon and Gonzaga all ranked among the Top 14 teams in the country heading into the campaign, and they’ve all (obviously) lived up to their potential. South Carolina, on the other hand, was picked as the #9 team in the SEC; a conference with only one team in their Preseason Top 25. Yes, the Gamecocks played better than expected during the regular season, but they still lost ten games and were a long, long way from being anywhere near ‘elite’; particularly on the offensive end of the floor. So how have the Gamecocks managed to win four tough games over the past two weekend, including impressive upsets over Duke, Baylor and Florida? Simple – hot shooting! A team that barely averaged 70 points per game in their first 32 contests has averaged 82 ppg in the Big Dance while shooting 48% from the floor. Sindarius Thornwell has been on fire, scoring 24+ in all four tourney games, but it’s been the inconsistent supporting cast that has been the difference maker, with at least four players reaching the double digit scoring column in every tourney game. I don’t believe that the Gamecocks balanced scoring and hot shooting continues here. This matchup does not favor their offensive chances of success. Gonzaga is still standing only because of their defensive acumen -- West Virginia would have beaten them without some terrific Zags defense. Mark Few’s squad is the #1 ‘adjusted defensive efficiency’ team in the country. They’ve held opponents to under 35% shooting in this tournament, not atypical of what they’ve done all year. Few: “This is the best defensive team I’ve coached in my 18 years at Gonzaga.” When an elite defense meets up with a suspect offense, we can expect problems for that suspect offense. As a team, the Gamecocks have precious little experience in big games and big venues like this one. Sophomore guard PJ Dozier, talking about playing in front of 75,000 fans in Glendale: “I can't even imagine it. I have no idea what to expect.” Gonzaga, on the other hand, has all kinds of big game experience, both this year and in recent seasons. They beat Florida and Iowa State in the HP Fieldhouse in Kissimmee, Florida. They beat Arizona at the Staples Center in LA and knocked off Tennessee in Knoxville. I trust this squad to execute their gameplan in this type of environment far more than I trust the Gamecocks to do likewise. Gonzaga has faced several really tough defenses in this tourney – they’re battle tested now, not going to be overwhelmed by the Gamecocks defensive pressure. The Zags are far more efficient in their half court sets offensively than their opponent – when South Carolina isn’t generating turnovers in bunches, they’re not scoring points in bunches. And, crucial in this pointspread range, the Zags hit their free throws (despite some struggles last weekend) at a 72% clip, capable of extending this lead in the final minute should we need it. Big Ticket: Take Gonzaga. |
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03-29-17 | Heat -3 v. Knicks | Top | 105-88 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Miami (#507) It’s not hard to make a case for betting ON the Miami Heat. After all, Miami is 25-8 SU in their last 33 games, the single best ‘turnaround’ story in the NBA this season, fighting hard for the final playoff spot in the East. Head coach Eric Spoelstra: "Our guys want this so bad. They really care about each other. They've developed such a strong bond. Guys really love each other. They want to play well for each other. It's bigger than just themselves….We feel like there's something special with this group, but nothing's guaranteed. We believe in that energy and that karma. We believe that because we went through so many frustrating games at the end that it developed some toughness.” The Heat are 10-1 ATS in their last eleven tries on the second night of back-2-backs, a testament to this team’s intestinal fortitude. They’re 5-0 ATS on their last five visits to Madison Square Garden, owning this sorry Knicks squad. And the Heat are 5-0 ATS following at pointspread loss, like the one they suffered in Detroit last night; most assuredly a team worth betting ON in a spot like they’re in tonight. It’s not hard to make a case for betting AGAINST the New York Knicks, especially in a game where they’ll need to win – or come pretty darn close – in order to cash the bet. New York beat Detroit on Monday on a rare hot shooting night, hitting 54% from the floor. ‘Melo, following the win: “It was kind of a ‘must win’ for team morale.” Their last set of back-2-back wins came before Christmas, just 12-33 overall and 6-14 at home since that time. Following their last victory, New York lost by double digits as home favorites against Brooklyn. And coming off a ‘must win for team morale’ I have a hard time believing they can match that intensity tonight. The kicker here – what makes this play worthy of Big Ticket status – is the betting market reaction to the announcement that the Knicks would play both Derrick Rose and Carmelo Anthony tonight, signifying that they supposedly aren’t tanking. But they are tanking! Head coach Jeff Hornacek: “When you're not in the playoffs, everyone looks at the best draft pick you can get. It's hard.” Expect it to be VERY hard for the Knicks to remain competitive in this one for four full quarters. Big Ticket: Take the Heat. |
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03-24-17 | Wisconsin v. Florida -2 | Top | 83-84 | Loss | -105 | 58 h 8 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Florida (#872) Wisconsin can’t play any better than they did last weekend in Buffalo. They averaged a ridiculous 1.31 points per possession while knocking off Virginia Tech, then followed that up with a 53% shooting effort to beat the defending champs, Villanova. Given the success of the Badgers in recent tournaments (their four seniors – Bronson Koenig, Nigel Hayes, Zak Showalter and Vitto Brown – are a combined 13-3 in NCAA Tournament games), it’s easy to understand why the markets are affording this team so much respect. But the Badgers do not match up well against Florida, and they’ll be hard pressed to come close to matching last weekend’s stellar efforts. Wisconsin doesn’t hit free throws (64% for the season, just 26-41 in the first two games of the Big Dance). They’ve been outrebounded consistently down the stretch, losing the battle of the boards in five of their last nine games. And the Badgers lack the athletic playmakers that Florida has an ample supply of; the type of playmakers that have given Wisconsin trouble in the majority of their eight previous losses this season. Florida hits their free throws at a 71% clip for the season. They’re a dominant rebounding team as well, winning the battle of the boards in each of their last five contests. Every Gators loss this season came against a quality foe – three times to Vanderbilt, then Kentucky, South Carolina, Florida State, Duke and Gonzaga, arguably all better teams than the one they’ll face on Friday. It’s surely worth noting that Florida didn’t lose contact in any of those defeats, each and every one of them coming by ten points or less. Wisconsin lives and dies by the three point shot and Ethan Happ’s ability to create good looks in the low post. But the Gators are elite defenders on the perimeter, ranked among the Top 10 teams in the country, allowing only 30% shooting from beyond the arc for the season. And Happ won’t have an easy time of it against shot blocker extraordinaire Kevarrius Hayes. In fact, Florida ranks among the nation’s leaders on defense in shooting percentage allowed, blocked shots and turnovers forced; arguably the best defensive team still standing in the tourney. Gators junior wing Devin Robinson is skyrocketing up NBA draft boards. Shooting guard KeVuaghn Allen is primed for a much better weekend this week after a woeful 3-21 shooting effort last weekend. Senior point guard Kasey Hill can hang tough with Koenig. The Gators have more depth than the Badgers – no Florida starter averages more than 28 minutes per game, with a rotation that still goes nine deep even after the injury loss of big man John Egbunu. This is a VERY cheap price to lay with the superior team, making this game worthy of Big Ticket status. Big Ticket: Take Florida. |
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03-19-17 | USC +7.5 v. Baylor | Top | 78-82 | Win | 100 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take USC (#725) In just about every recent season we’ve seen one team ride the wave from a ‘play in’ game victory all the way to the Sweet 16. And USC certainly has that potential here, with the current seven point spread offering us a legitimate bargain to support the Trojans on Sunday in a play worthy of Big Ticket status! Baylor is a classic case of a team that peaked in January. Remember, this team was #1 in the country for a few days after starting 15-0. Obviously, they are not the #1 team in the country, or anything close. And from a value standpoint, the Bears have been a nightmare for their supporters since that hot start, a 40% ATS squad since the calendar turned to 2017. Coming off a game in which they shot 57% from the floor and 90% from the free throw line while finishing +17 on the glass – yet the game was still tied after halftime – I’m expecting the Bears to have a much tougher time here as they step up in class. And for a program with a consistent track record of failure in March under Scott Drew, expect the Bears to have their fair share of struggles in Tulsa on Sunday USC has stepped up in class plenty of late, facing UCLA, Arizona and Oregon twice each down the stretch of their PAC-12 campaign. And this game sets up well for the Trojans. They didn’t burn all their energy in Vegas last weekend, losing to UCLA by a bucket in their second game. They had time to physically recover before their flight to Dayton for the Play in Game. Their win over SMU was another confidence boost for a team with great potential, and now, after the whirlwind of the past week, they get normal prep time without travel to face the Bears. Here’s what SMU’s Tim Jankovich said following the Mustangs loss to the Trojans on Friday, unable to penetrate the USC zone defense: “They've got great size. That's one of the real factors in how good your zone is, and they are very big, very, very big, and they're very athletic. I thought it was the most active they've played it in any of the games that we watched. So give them credit for that." Size is Baylor’s biggest edge, with 6-10 Johnathan Motley and seven footer Jo Lual-Acuil manning the low post and leading to a +8 rebounding margin average for the full season. But with Bennie Boatwright, Chimizie Metu, and Nick Rakocevic all standing at 6-10 or taller, the Trojans can bang with the Bears in the paint; start to finish. USC head coach Andy Enfield is the antithesis of Scott Drew when it come to tournament settings; a coach with a great track record of success, particularly as an underdog. Enfield took Florida Gulf Coast to the Sweet 16 – that’s how he got the USC job – with a 6-0 ATS run from the start of the Atlantic Sun tournament until their Big Dance exit, cashing four times as underdogs. Enfield has gone 7-3 ATS in postseason play with USC, including a 5-2 ATS mark as an underdog. In USC’s last two tries as a dog, they covered wire-2-wire, losing by only 2 to UCLA and beating SMU straight up. Both of those teams are better than Baylor…… Big Ticket: Take USC. |
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03-16-17 | Vermont v. Purdue -9 | Top | 70-80 | Win | 100 | 28 h 7 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Purdue (#732) The betting markets are not impressed with the Big 10 in general, and there’s certainly no groundswell of support to back a Purdue team that stumbled down the stretch with a pair of losses to Michigan. That leaves the Boilermakers as a seriously undervalued commodity heading into the Big Dance; a team with a ‘Final Four’ type statistical profile. And make no mistake about it – Purdue has something to prove here, right from the opening round. The Boilermakers got knocked off in the first round last year by Arkansas Little Rock in double overtime; a game where Purdue blew a 13 point lead in the final four minutes of regulation, a complete meltdown. The Big 10 regular season champ played at an elite level for extended stretches this season, and they’re coming into the Big Dance with a bit of a chip on their shoulders, primed for an opening round smackdown. It’s surely worth noting how good Purdue has been in this role this year, 12-2 ATS when laying -7.5 or higher. Vermont’s ‘big man’ is 6-8, 215 pounder Payton Hanson. Hanson has absolutely no chance to control the paint against 6-9, 250 Caleb Swanigan, an elite scorer with NBA potential. 7-2, 290 pounder Isaac Haas is an ever tougher matchup for the Catamounts, not to mention 6-8 Vince Edwards. Expect Purdue to control the paint on both ends of the floor, and win the battle of the boards by margin. If the Catamounts choose to sag into the paint to defend the Boilermakers low post studs, it’ll get even worse for the underdog. Purdue connected on more than 40% of their three point tries this year, ranked #4 in the country in three point shooting. Matt Painter’s inside-out offensive gameplan is nightmarish for Vermont to defend These two teams met last year. Vermont hit 48% from the floor and nailed 20 of their 24 free throw attempts, an excellent shooting game against a Big 10 foe. They still lost by 28, completely overwhelmed by the Boilermakers size and athleticism. It’s hard to picture the Catamounts shooting much better than 48% from the floor and 83% from the line in this one. Vermont faced three tourney teams during non-conference play this season. The lost to South Carolina, Providence and Butler by a combined 52 points, losing by at least a dozen in every one of those games. Purdue is better than all three of those squads, primed to win this one by a comfortable, double digit margin. Big Ticket: Take Purdue. |
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03-09-17 | Duke v. Louisville -1.5 | Top | 81-77 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 59 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Louisville (#714) (Abbreviated write-ups during this very busy conference tourney week) I’ll keep this short and sweet. Duke has no depth, especially with Grayson Allen a complete non-factor since his injury in late February (a total of five made shots in the Blue Devils last five games; more fouls than points, rebounds and assists combined in 12 minutes yesterday). Clemson gave them a battle to the final minute yesterday; a game in which Duke’s starters combined for 178 of the 200 minutes of court time, while the bench produced a grand total of two points, three rebounds and an assist. Coach K has bigger fish to fry than the ACC Tournament. A weekend practicing back home, trying to get Allen healthy again is not a bad thing for this team, as opposed to going all out in what will be a BRUTAL run to the finals in this loaded tourney. I do not expect a ‘balls to the wall’ effort from the Blue Devils today. Louisville comes into the game with an inherent advantage, just like they had in the first meeting (a comfortable nine point win). Louisville’s constant pressure on defense wears opponents down, even if they don’t force turnovers in bunches. Duke has no depth and played a tight game yesterday. Expect Louisville’s presses to have the desired effect here – Duke will not be ‘fresh’ for the second half of this one! And make no mistake about it – this game, and this tournament, means more to Louisville than perhaps any other team in the conference. Rick Pitino is a conference tourney guy: 12-2 SU & ATS since 2012. He owns 11 conference tournament championships in four different leagues over the past 2 ½ decades. Louisville was ineligible last year and they got bounced from their opener in their first ever ACC tourney in 2015. This team has a statement to make this weekend, and I expect it to start right here! Big Ticket: Take Louisville. |
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03-08-17 | Penn State -1 v. Nebraska | Top | 76-67 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Penn State (#561) My clients and I have been betting against Nebraska consistently in recent weeks, a team that has been power rated in the wrong range for the better part of the last two months. The betting markets got the wrong idea about this team in January when they opened Big 10 play with road wins at Indiana and Maryland, followed by a home victory over Iowa. Since that time, the Huskers are 3-12 SU. They’ve lost four straight games by 15 points or more, non-competitive in defeat. Their only victory away from home since New Year’s Day was a minor miracle at Ohio State, stealing a one point win in a game they trailed by five with 30 seconds to play. Last time out, on senior night, at home against Michigan this past weekend, the Huskers were complete no-shows, falling behind by double digits early and never showing the pride, energy and determination to make a run at any point in that game. Tim Miles is clearly on the hot seat and his team has stopped buying into his message. Nebraska’s collapse has been most obvious on the defensive end of the court. In recent weeks, the Huskers have allowed 93 to Michigan, 88 to Minnesota, 88 to Michigan State, 81 to Iowa and 80 to Purdue, not exactly ‘shut down’ defense. Their last five opponents have combined to shoot 51% from the floor and 41% from three point range against them in one ‘no-show’ after the next. I’m not worried one iota about some positive Huskers quotes coming into the Big 10 Tourney. The same players have been delivering the same type of quotes throughout this dismal run. And the Huskers opponent, Penn State, has been feisty as hell in this tournament throughout the Patrick Chambers era, including a 4-0 ATS mark in this tourney over the past two seasons. That’s an ATS run worth riding again today in a game where Nebraska will be hard pressed to compete for 40 minutes. Big Ticket: Take Penn State. |
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03-04-17 | Kansas v. Oklahoma State +2 | Top | 90-85 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 60 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Oklahoma State (#610) This is the ultimate ‘no-show’ game for Kansas. The Jayhawks are coming off an exhilarating, come from behind win against Oklahoma on Senior Night. They have already clinched their 13th consecutive Big 12 regular season title and the #1 seed in next week’s Big 12 Tournament. And Bill Self’s key cogs are all worn down. Over the last five games, out of a possible 205 court minutes (counting OT against West Virginia), Frank Mason has played 199, DeVonte Graham has played 193 and Josh Jackson has played 171 minutes. For a team with legitimate Big 12 tourney and national title aspirations, this game is as meaningless as it gets. I’m not expecting Bill Self to chase hard if (when!) the Jayhawks fall behind – he’s got to manage his stars minutes today! Oklahoma State has been a truly remarkable story this college basketball season. First year head coach Brad Underwood watched his team go 0-6 to open Big 12 play, suffering one excruciating loss after the next. That included a tight loss to full strength Kansas, a two point game with 4:00 to play before Kansas pulled away late. Instead of wilting, Oklahoma State has put together a remarkable turnaround: 10-2 SU, 10-2 ATS since, as hot as any team in the conference heading into their own Senior Night. Coach Underwood: “We’re a good basketball team and have we peaked? Not yet. We have a chance to be an exceptional basketball team and we’re showing that.” It’s not just Underwood talking about his team as a squad with elite potential at this stage of the campaign. Here’s a quote from Texas Tech head coach Chris Beard following the Cowboys 17 point win against the Red Raiders in their last home game: “Brad has really good players. He has an NBA point guard (Juwan Evans), one of the all-time great Big 12 players in (Phil) Forte, and in my opinion he has the most improved player, not only in Big 12, but in college basketball with (Jeffrey) Carroll. He has young players who really play their roles and play productive minutes.” From an offensive standpoint, Oklahoma State is no ‘unranked’ team. In fact, the Cowboys rank #1 in the country, ahead of even mighty UCLA, with a 125.1 adjusted offensive efficiency; the second best college basketball offense of the last TEN YEARS! In a pointspread range where the SU win equates to an ATS cover, the undervalued Cowboys are worthy of a Big Ticket sized wager today. Big Ticket: Take Oklahoma State. |
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03-02-17 | Manhattan v. Rider -5.5 | Top | 68-69 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Rider (#770) The Broncs struggled against the Jaspers in the first meeting between these two teams back in January. Rider shot poorly and clanked a bunch of free throws, just 17-29 from the charity stripe, while Manhattan hit 28-35 (80%) from the free throw line in a three point home victory. The rematch less than two weeks ago was a tale of two halves. Manhattan scored 53 points before halftime, taking a nine point lead into the break. Finally, in the second half, Rider figured out how to solve Steve Masiello’s pressing defense and they blew the Jaspers off the court in a 49-29 second half rout. I have full confidence that Rider’s second half success from the last meeting will carry over tonight – they know how to beat this team now! And let’s be honest – this season has been a disaster for Manhattan. A loss here and this 10-21 team can call it a season. It’s surely worth noting that the Jaspers have lost each of their last five away from home by double digit margins, including a 23 point loss right here in Albany against Siena in February. Masiello: “We’re not built to, and nor will I ever build to say ‘let’s get 92 and let them get 90’. It’s just not who I am philosophically. There’s nothing wrong with that, I just don’t know how to play that way. When you don’t get stops, I don’t care how many scoring options you have; in our system, it’s not going to equate to success. It’s about getting stops.” The problem, of course, is that they haven’t gotten stops, ranked #9 in the MACC in defensive efficiency during league play. They’ve allowed 78+ in eight of their nine road losses in conference, and have allowed 51% shooting over their last five games. Rider averaged 98 points per game while going 3-0 SU and ATS down the stretch. This is a senior laden squad -- four senior starters, all of whom average in double digits in the scoring column -- with a legit shot to make a run in this tourney, and they know it. Head coach Kevin Baggett: “Our guys are excited. We have some momentum, but we’ve had momentum going into the tournament before and lost. We’ll focus on the one game, Manhattan, and making sure that we’re ready to go and knowing exactly what we need to do to win the game.” Senior Jimmy Taylor, the team’s leading scorer, on how they beat up on Manhattan in the second half of the last meeting: “Tell everyone to stay aggressive, stay confident in their shots, we are capable of scoring and if the shots aren’t falling, keep shooting. Go inside to our big men, if their shots are falling, then it opens up guys on the perimeter from 3 and, if those fall, it opens up more, we just feed off of each other.” Expect more of the same tonight in a game with legit ‘blowout’ potential. Big Ticket: Take Rider. |
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02-27-17 | Warriors v. 76ers +14 | Top | 119-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Philadelphia (#506) All the Sixers do is cover pointspreads, the single best ATS team in the NBA this year. Philadelphia is 0-3 ATS as favorites. In their other 55 games, they’re 36-19 ATS, cashing at a 65% clip for the entire season; a consistently undervalued commodity in the betting markets. That hasn’t changed in recent weeks, despite Philly attracting some media attention because they’ve finally stopped losing every game in SU fashion, like they did in each of the last three seasons. And when you talk about undervalued home courts, Philly stands out like a sore thumb. A home court that was essentially worthless for the past three years is producing dividends now. The results don’t lie. Waaaaaaay under the radar, the 76ers are now 9-2 SU, 11-0 ATS in their home games since the calendar turned to 2017; the only losses coming in spread covering fashion by five against Houston and by eight against San Antonio. Philly has only lost four home games by double digit margins all year, three of which came in the first month of the season, when they were still awful. This is a ‘bet-on’ team in every sense of the word. The Warriors don’t take Philadelphia very seriously – they’ve got bigger fish to fry. The Warriors won by 12 at home as 21.5 point favorites in the most recent meeting between the two teams. The Warriors last two trips to Philly have been tight, competitive games, with Golden State winning by three and five points as 16.5 and 15.5 point favorites. I’m not expecting the Warriors ‘A’ game tonight, especially with a much tougher test at Washington on tap for the second night of back-2-backs tomorrow. And this Steve Kerr quote is worth noting as the Warriors head east for this road trip: “Here you go, Golden State, here’s your marquee game against the Spurs on a Saturday night on ABC and it’ll be your eighth game in 12 days with 10,000 miles. Like, it’s insane. So I’ve gotta be very, very careful about our players’ welfare and make sure they’re fresh and not too fatigued. Because we know that can lead to injury.” Expect his concerns about freshness to be a different maker ATS tonight. Big Ticket: Take the 76ers. |
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02-21-17 | NC State v. Georgia Tech -3 | Top | 71-69 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Georgia Tech (#540) Georgia Tech has been mispriced since Day 1 this year, and they’re still mispriced here in late February, with the betting markets simply unwilling to regard the Yellow Jackets as a quality squad. It’s easy to understand why – Josh Pastner’s squad wasn’t supposed to be any good this year, ranked ahead of only 9-19 Boston College in the preseason projections. This team was a 3.5 point home underdog to Ohio U from the MAC back in November, a clear illustrator of how far off the markets have been. The Ramblin’ Wreck are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 lined games. They’ve’ pulled off outright upsets at home against Syracuse, North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State and Notre Dame already in ACC play. They haven’t lost a home game since January 7th against mighty Louisville. The Yellow Jackets defensive numbers on this floor have truly been impressive, holding foes to 36% shooting for the SEASON. And let’s not forget how easily they beat the Wolfpack in the first meeting, back when NC State still cared; covering the spread wire-to-wire in a double digit road victory. Yellow Jackets guard Justin Moore: “Coach (Josh Pastner) always tells us each game is big, but I think these next couple games, the home stretch, is very key for us.” Guard Corey Heyward: “I think it’ll be intense….. we get our energy from our fans, so it’ll be fun.” A month ago, NC State appeared to be in pretty good shape. They were at 14-7 overall following an impressive 84-82 road win at Duke behind a 32 point outburst from Dennis Smith. Then the bottom dropped out. It’s been seven consecutive losses for the Wolfpack. Head coach Mark Gottfried has already been fired, but he’s in the awkward position of being a lame duck for the final few weeks of the season. We saw how NC State responded to the news of Gottfried’s impending departure – a no show, at home against Notre Dame. Don’t be fooled by the final score of that game – the Wolfpack were down by 13 at halftime and by 23 midway through the second half before Notre Dame backed off and started burning clock, leading to ‘only’ a nine point home loss. It’s surely worth noting that NC State shot 50% from the floor in that game yet they still lost and failed to cover. It’s hard to project the Wolfpack approaching or exceeding that type of shooting percentage tonight. The betting markets are fixating on the bad ‘spot’ for Georgia Tech, in a short turnaround situation off the big Sunday Night win over Syracuse. They’re not fixating on the bad spot for NC State, a dead team, playing out the string, who has been blitzed by 30, 24 and 25 points in their last three road tilts, all non-competitive efforts. Even Gottfried has given up on the regular season: “I told them in the locker room. I saw a team in there that can do some damage in Brooklyn, in the tournament, if we just keep our spirit alive. So that’s where I am.” A team with a lame duck coach who is 0-7 SU and ATS in their last seven games and already thinking about the ACC Tournament is NOT a bet-on squad, yet that’s exactly what the markets did this morning. Georgia Tech opened at -5.5, was bet down to -4.5 overnight and then to -3 this morning. That added value turns a good play into a Big Ticket worthy wager; a game I expect the home favorite to win rather comfortably. Big Ticket: Take Georgia Tech. |
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02-15-17 | 76ers +10.5 v. Celtics | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Philadelphia (#509) My clients and I have been making money with the 76ers for the better part of the last two months. Tonight’s game in Boston stands out as a prime opportunity to catch this undervalued squad in a particularly strong situational spot, worthy of Big Ticket status. Philly has given Boston trouble in both previous meetings this season. In December, the Celtics were -10, but never enjoyed any separation, beating the Sixers by just a single point. It was a similar story in January. Boston was laying -11 in a game they struggled to win by four, needing a big second half rally to do it. The 76ers covered the spread wire-2-wire in both contests. So what’s different about tonight’s game, Boston is in a worse spot! The Celtics are coming home off a successful road trip, winning at Portland, Utah and Dallas to close it out. They’ve got a TV game in Chicago against the Bulls tomorrow, before everybody bolts for the All Star Break. In between, in this major flat spot, they’ll face a team they’ve beaten in every single meeting since 2012. I am NOT expecting the Celtics ‘A’ game here, particularly bad news for a team that has gone 0-8 ATS when laying -8 or higher this year. Big home chalk off a great road trip is NOT the Celtics role! On the other hand, this IS Philly’s role. The Sixers are 0-3 ATS as favorites this year. They are 1-3 ATS as big underdogs of +14 or more, tough road games against elite teams. In Philly’s other 49 games, where they are not favored and not huge underdogs, the 76ers are 32-17 ATS. Yes, they’ve covered the spread nearly two thirds of the time in those games; a consistently undervalued commodity. The betting markets continue to obsess about Joel Embiid’s status (he’s out again tonight). Earlier in the season, the Sixers couldn’t win without Embiid. That was then, this is now. The Sixers just beat the Heat, Hornets and Magic without their center, winning each of those games as an underdog. Philly should have both Jahlil Okafor (probable) and Nerlens Noel to man the low post tonight. 2014 lottery pick Darko Saric is on fire right now, while point guard TJ McConnell is arguably the single most undervalued player in the league. Just like the first two meetings, we can expect another tight contest tonight. Big Ticket: Take the 76ers. |
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02-08-17 | Heat v. Bucks -3 | Top | 106-88 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Milwaukee (#512) Miami is the hottest team in the NBA. If they win tonight, they’ll set the All Time NBA record for longest winning streak by a team with a losing record, currently tied with the 1996-97 Phoenix Suns with 11 consecutive wins. The Heat haven’t lost a single game ATS during this entire span, including six outright underdog victories. And yet I have no hesitation betting against Miami tonight in a play worthy of a Big Ticket sized wager. Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra is concerned, especially after his team did everything they could to blow a double digit second half lead at Minnesota on Monday, a game where the T-wolves defense was truly bottom tier. Spoelstra: “We've gone through just about everything else; how to play with a ridiculously bad record, how to play with adversity, how to play through injuries, how to play without making excuses. Now we have to be able to play to our identity when you're dealing with a little bit of success, and not let human nature sink in.” But human nature ALWAYS sinks in, a clear flat spot for the road underdog. It’s surely worth noting that during this extended winning streak, the Heat have only won three road games. Two came at Brooklyn and at Minnesota, both bottom feeders with dismal defenses. The third came at Chicago when the Bulls were in full-on implosion mode, ‘the worst game we’ve played all year’ according to head coach Fred Hoiberg. This is NOT a battle tested team on the highway, capable of gutting out tough wins. The Bucks have really struggled since the calendar turned to 2017. They went 1-10 SU and ATS in an 11 game span from mid-January through last weekend. But they closed out their West Coast road trip with a big blowout at Phoenix, snapping the skid. They made a deal with Charlotte, acquiring big men Spencer Hawes and Roy Hibbert in the process. And they’ll get Kris Middleton back on the court tonight, a huge momentum boost. The Bucks haven’t played since Saturday, allowing head coach Jason Kidd a rare opportunity to get multiple extended practice sessions in. He’s excited about working his two new big men into the mix: “You look at Hibbert, he protects the rim and offensively he can put it in the basket in the paint. You look at Hawes, he play-makes and he can shoot the three, so he can stretch the defense. Both of those guys know how to play the game the right way." And don’t underestimate the impact of Middleton, the team’s on court leader last year. He finished as the #2 shooting guard in the NBA in real +/- last year, behind only James Harden. Middleton: “I've been practicing the last couple of weeks and haven't thought about my hamstring one bit, which is good. I'm ready to go.” I’m expecting a raucous home crowd and an ‘A+’ level effort from the home team here. Expect Miami’s magical run to finally end tonight. Big Ticket: Take the Bucks. |
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02-03-17 | Bulls +6.5 v. Rockets | Top | 117-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Chicago (#859) My clients and I cashed an easy Big Ticket winner with the Bulls on Wednesday as they went to OKC and beat the Thunder by 28 points as underdogs. And there’s every reason to think that the Bulls are a ‘bet-on’ team again tonight as they continue their road trip in Houston. Let me start with an excerpt from my last write-up in support of Chicago. ‘The Chicago side of the equation screams ‘bet-on’. Every bettor in the world heard about the Bulls locker room meltdown last week, with Dwayne Wade and Jimmy Butler taking potshots at their teammates following an ugly blown lead at home against Atlanta. But from ALL indications – the players, the coaches and the local media – this ‘chemistry crisis’ has been overblown, and things have been just fine in practice and on the court. Clearly, there’s no irreparable fracture in this locker room. Dwayne Wade: “Nothing needs to be repaired. Yeah, we're fine. We come in to play basketball and compete, and we've done a good job of that the last few days, with the exception of the Heat game when we laid a dud. But the last few days have been great competition, so we move on from there." I believe him!” But the betting markets are lagging behind; unwilling to support a Bulls team that has gotten so much negative press of late. This is a value-laden team right now; quite capable of making a little run between now and the All Star Break. It’s surely worth noting that they’ve owned the Rockets, sweeping Houston last year while going 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five meetings. There’s ample reason to fade the slumping Rockets right now as well. The rigors of a brutal scheduling stretch – Houston had 13 court changes over a 14 game span in January, and this is their sixth set of back-2-backs since New Year’s Eve – has taken a toll. Houston is just 5-8 SU in their last 13 games, with seven of those SU losses coming in the role of a favorite. The Rockets, like the Bulls, are not being priced correctly in the betting markets right now. And the situation for Houston is not a good one. They were coasting with a 20 point lead with just over eight minutes left in the fourth quarter last night, before a 36-11 Atlanta run sent the stunned Rockets home with an ‘L’ not a ‘W’. Mike D’Antoni was already making excuses about tonight following last night’s loss: “Mentally we just didn't do a good job, and you know this will leave a mark because this is one of those that are hard to swallow. But at the same time, it is one game, and it is what it is and we got a game (Friday). We've got to find our composure and play.” Good luck with that, Mike. Big Ticket: Take the Bulls. |
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02-01-17 | Bulls +3.5 v. Thunder | Top | 128-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Chicago (#521) Oklahoma City is a complete mess right now, but the betting markets haven’t adjusted them downwards appropriately given their current situation. Meanwhile, the markets have bottomed out on Chicago; reacting to a locker room that doesn’t appear to be as bad as many mainstream media reports would indicate. Put those two factors together and there’s a strong case to be made for Chicago to win in SU fashion this evening. Let me start with an excerpt from my anti-Thunder wager last night, with the numbers edited slightly to reflect current realities. “There are more than a handful of brutal scheduling stretches in the NBA every year, but what the Thunder have been through over the past six weeks is as bad as it gets. Tonight’s game will be their 23rd consecutive game with a court change. They’ve gone out West, then back East more than once during this grueling slate, a stretch where they haven’t been able to practice with any sort of regularity. “Nor should we underestimate the impact of the Enes Kanter injury on OKC moving forward. Kanter was arguably the single most productive big man off the bench in the NBA this season. His absence doesn’t affect the pointspread very much, but it certainly has affected the Thunder’s play significantly.” OKC isn’t hopeless – they went on a 22-2 run in the second half at San Antonio last night, not an easy thing to do. But despite that flurry, the Thunder lost SU and failed to cover the +9 point spread. In the 14 minutes when Russell Westbrook sat, OKC was outscored by 22 points, a clear indication that the loss of Kanter is going to significantly affect their bench production moving forward. And for a team that has repeatedly struggled on the second night of back-2-backs (only one win in that situation in the last eight weeks), a second set of back-2-backs in the last week isn’t a positive factor for this exhausted ballclub. The Chicago side of the equation screams ‘bet-on’. Every bettor in the world heard about the Bulls locker room meltdown last week, with Dwayne Wade and Jimmy Butler taking potshots at their teammates following an ugly blown lead at home against Atlanta. But from ALL indications – the players, the coaches and the local media – this ‘chemistry crisis’ has been overblown, and things have been just fine in practice and on the court. Clearly, there’s no irreparable fracture in this locker room. Dwayne Wade: “Nothing needs to be repaired. Yeah, we're fine. We come in to play basketball and compete, and we've done a good job of that the last few days, with the exception of the Heat game when we laid a dud. But the last few days have been great competition, so we move on from there." I believe him! The Bulls lost by 15 at home to OKC less than a month ago. Of course, Jimmy Butler had the flu that night and scored only one point, his worst effort of the season. And Enes Kanter was arguably OKC’s best player that night with 20 points and 11 boards. OKC finished with a +27 when he was on the floor. That ain’t happenin’ tonight! Big Ticket: Take the Bulls. |
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01-20-17 | Blazers v. 76ers +1.5 | Top | 92-93 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Philadelphia (#852) Here’s a stat that you probably didn’t know, helping to explain Philadelphia’s recent surge. The 76ers have the scoring margin of a 56 win team with Joel Embiid on the floor this season. Without Embiid on the court, they have the scoring margin on an 11-win team. Philly’s young center is most assuredly a difference maker right now. Embiid has missed eleven games this year, and he’s been on restricted minutes in many others. But here in January, he’s been on quite a roll, averaging 23 points nine rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game. The shot blocking numbers really stand out; a lurking defensive presence in the paint, setting up another stat that you probably didn’t know. Here in January, where the Sixers are 6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS, the Philadelphia 76ers have the #2 defense in the NBA, based on the most accurate advanced metric numbers that I use. Their full season numbers aren’t even close to that, and the markets are clearly lagging behind Philadelphia’s noticeable, legitimate improvement on the defensive end. It’s not just Embiid stepping up. Another rookie, Dario Saric, who’s been stashed away in Europe for the last couple of years after getting picked in the lottery back in 2014, is playing excellent ball on both ends of the floor right now. One of the few veterans, Ersan Ilyasova, has been a difference maker with his clutch three point shooting. Point guard TJ McConnell has a truly impressive 8.6 assist to 1.7 ratio this month. In short, Philly’s young talent is finally coming together after years of futility. When the very worst franchise in the NBA in recent seasons starts playing competitive basketball, there’s ample line value to support them on the way up! Philly has already exceeded their win total from last year. Center Joel Embiid prior to their win over New York last week: "We have a chance (to make the playoffs)…. We are coming together. We are learning how to play with each other.” Embiid after the win over Charlotte last week: "The last couple games we've been finishing, so it gives us a lot of confidence." One last pro-Philly stat for you. The Sixers are 0-3 ATS as favorites this year. They are 0-3 ATS as big underdogs of +14 or more, tough road games against elite teams. In Philly’s other 34 games, where they are not favored and not huge underdogs, the 76ers are 23-11 ATS. Yes, they’ve covered the spread more than two thirds of the time in those games; a consistently undervalued commodity. It’s not hard to make an anti-Blazers argument at this stage of the campaign. Portland has lost three straight and is now sitting eight games under .500, despite playing with most of the same roster as last year’s team that finished with a #5 seed in the loaded West. The Blazers defensive numbers are truly atrocious, ranked #27 in advanced metric stats on that end of the court. Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum continue to pour in buckets from the guard spots, but this Blazers frontcourt is weak on both ends of the floor. That’s particularly bad news against Embiid, Jahlil Okafor and emerging Sixers big man Nerlens Noel. The Blazers lost by 25 in Philadelphia last year – no easy task, given how bad that Philadelphia team was. They came 12 points short of covering the spread against Philly in the first matchup this year, lucky to escape with a three point home win. And Portland has been awful in these short spread games all year, a woeful 6-14 ATS when the pointspread range is +3.5 to -3.5, consistently unable to generate critical stops during crunch time. These are not ‘bet-on’ quotes, in my opinion. Center Mason Plumlee: “I don't think our energy is good, man. Honestly, I think it is in spurts. We'll rally sometimes, but it's not sustained and that has to change." Damian Lillard hasn’t seemed too concerned with Portland’s struggles all year: “It's typical for every team. When things go well, that comes with energy. You're making shots, you're stopping the other team, you get energy from that because you feel good about what you're doing. I don't think we're giving ourselves enough situations to feel good about what we're doing often enough. Our energy drops because of that and teams take advantage of that." Wrong team favored. Period. Big Ticket: Take the 76ers. |
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12-08-16 | Iowa State -6.5 v. Iowa | Top | 64-78 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Iowa State (#519) Iowa and Iowa State have a truly intense rivalry in college hoops. The game has been extremely tight in two of the last three years, coming down to the final possession. Last year, Iowa State escaped at home with a one point win. This year, however, the game is a complete mismatch, yet the rivalry nature of the series and close results in recent seasons have given us a real pointspread bargain, because these two teams aren’t even close. Iowa State is truly loaded. They’ve got four seniors and a graduate transfer in their starting lineup. Their first guy off the bench (playing starter level minutes) is also a graduate transfer. Four of their five starters average at least 11 points per game, a balanced team that can withstand an off night from any one of their contributors. The Cyclones lost back-2-back games last week – a two point heartbreaker to Gonzaga and a one point OT heartbreaker to Cincinnati. There’s no shame in either loss, and this is most assuredly a battle tested team already. Iowa hasn’t sniffed a win or cover in any step up in class game yet. All five of the Hawkeyes losses have come by eight points or more, and their four wins have all come against true college basketball bottom feeders. Iowa can’t match Iowa State’s size or physicality. Fran McCaffrey’s squad certainly can’t match their experience – the Hawkeyes are starting three freshmen and a sophomore, going through some major growing pains right now. The last time the Hawkeyes faced an elite defense, they lost 74-41 to Virginia. Iowa State’s defense has been nothing short of spectacular, holding foes to 36% shooting for the season! And Iowa State is going to go for the kill tonight. Leading scorer and assist man Monte Morris:“We want to go in there and make a statement — set the tone and send a message both to Iowa and the country. We’re trying to go out there and beat them badly." I believe him, and I believe the Cyclones are more than capable of achieving that goal this evening. Big Ticket: Take Iowa State. |
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06-16-16 | Warriors +2.5 v. Cavs | Top | 101-115 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 34 m | Show |
Big Ticket: NBA Playoff GOY: Take Golden State (#511) My clients and I cashed a winning bet with Cleveland in Game 3, and a winning bet with Golden State in Game 4. Let me start with an excerpt from that Game 4 write-up with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: “The results don’t lie. Golden State lost nine games during the regular season and they’ve lost seven games here in the playoffs. Following their first 15 defeats of the season, the Warriors have gone 14-1 SU; a very meaningful stat considering that a SU win in Game 6 equates to a pointspread win because they are underdogs. “The Warriors track record here in the postseason is worthy of note here as well. Following a Game 3 loss at Houston, Steve Kerr’s squad rolled to a 121-94 road win in Game 4 at Houston. Following a Game 3 loss to Portland, the Warriors rallied from behind to win and cover in overtime. And it’s surely worth noting what happened the last two times Golden State closed at +2 or higher (the current prevailing pointspread as I write this). The Warriors were +3.5 at OKC for Game 6; again, making all the key plays down the stretch to emerge victorious. They did the exact same thing as +2.5 point dogs in Cleveland in Game 4.“ Let’s be real about what happened in Game 5. Draymond Green finished the regular season as the #3 player in the NBA (behind LeBron and Steph) in ‘Real plus-minus’, an advanced metric stat that incorporates a player’s true value to their team. Without him on the floor, the Warriors looked lost on both ends of the court for extended stretches. Meanwhile, both LeBron and Kyrie Irving were on fire for most of the game, combining to his 33-54 shots, each putting up 41 points. Make no mistake about it – that ain’t happenin’ in Game 6 with Green back on the floor and the Warriors in ‘off a loss’ mode. Klay Thompson, talking about Irving’s 41 point effort: “It happens. I mean, he's a phenomenal player, especially on the offensive end, so it obviously stings. And you watch the film and see what you can do better, but you don't let it deflate you for Thursday. You play the same hard-nosed defense and try to make them take the same contested shots.” And let’s be real about one other thing that happened in Game 5 – the Warriors just missed shots. Based on SportsVU data, Golden State went 4-19 on ‘wide open’ three pointers, with Harrison Barnes, in particular, suffering an ugly shooting night. The good news is that they got those open looks, despite Green’s absence. With Green back on the floor for Game 6, expect a significantly better shooting effort from the defending champs. I’ll close with this quote from Steph Curry: "You work hard in the series early to put ourselves in this position again on Thursday, and we'll be ready. We'll obviously watch the film and understand the way the mishaps were, especially on the defensive end against those two guys. Come out with confidence and get the job done." GSW is the better team, coming off a loss, a role in which they’ve won 14 times in 15 tries since opening day. They’ve got no business as underdogs here! Big Ticket: Take the Warriors. |
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05-26-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -7 | Top | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
Take Golden State (#720) One of my biggest betting mantras when it comes to the NBA Playoffs is this: ‘When a series is Over, it’s Over.” You don’t want to be fighting losing battles with a team that expects to go down to defeat – playing for ‘pride’ is not enough of a motivator. So any analysis of the Warriors – Thunder Game 5 matchup must begin by answering a simple question – are the Warriors done? Two quotes stand out to me to indicate that Golden State is not done yet. Let me start with Draymond Green, a superstar level performer who was nothing short of awful in two games in OKC: 2-16 shooting with ten turnovers. "I've been the energy for this team and I have not been that. I think our energy goes as my energy goes, and I've been awful … At the end of the day I know I've got to be better in Game 5. It's all or nothing. We've put too much work in to go out like this.” And then there’s Steve Kerr, who did the right thing yesterday, giving his fatigued team the day off to get refreshed. "We are the defending champs. Most teams that were down 3-1 in the conference finals, I'm guessing weren't the defending champs. We feel very confident. We don’t need to be on the court (Wednesday). This is a day to get refreshed.” The Thunder were in a comparable spot two years ago in the conference Finals. After controlling Games 3 & 4 against the Spurs, they travelled back to San Antonio for Game 5. It wasn’t pretty, a 117-89 loss. Following their Game 1 win on this floor this year, once again the Thunder were essentially no-shows in a 118-91 defeat that was all garbage time in the second half. I’m not convinced we’ll see the Thunder’s ‘A’ game tonight. We know how strong this home court has been throughout the course of the regular season, and even here in the playoffs where the Warriors are 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS against the closing number. The Warriors hadn’t lost two straight games all year prior to their Game 4 defeat. I’m willing to bet that they’re not going to suffer their first three game losing streak of the season tonight. Draymond Green said it right: “We've put too much work in to go out like this.” Take the Warriors. |
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05-24-16 | Warriors -1 v. Thunder | Top | 94-118 | Loss | -106 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
Take Golden State (#715) There’s no need to overanalyze this one, with three key factors putting me on the Warriors side as short road favorites tonight. First, this has been a ‘spot’ series. Golden State had their spot in Game 2, and put together a massive blowout against OKC. OKC had their spot in Game 3, and put together a massive blowout against the Warriors. Now it’s a Warriors spot once again, following that Game 3 debacle. Secondly, I’m buying what Steph Curry is saying 100%, with his quote yesterday talking about the Game 3 loss and what he expects from Game 4: “Everything is magnified in that situation, when literally nothing’s going our way for four straight minutes and then I get an open look and I miss and the crowd goes crazy and they get a rebound and then go down in transition. It just adds to how out of control it was for us in that second quarter. Especially when you’re on the road, they’ll feed off of that. It won’t affect us tomorrow. We’re going to be ourselves, execute what we need to do, and hopefully we make those shots tomorrow.” And lastly, Golden State has proven time and time again that they are worthy of support in this role. The Warriors faced 2-1 series deficits twice last year on their way to the title, in the Western Conference semi’s against the Grizzlies and in the Finals against the Cavaliers. The Warriors won Game 4 by 17 at Memphis and by 21 at Cleveland, closing out those two series with a combined 6-0 SU, 6-0 ATS mark following those 2-1 deficits. And no team in NBA history has been better off a loss than the 2016 Warriors, because you can’t be better than perfect. Off three previous playoff losses, the Warriors have won their next game by 28, 7 and 21 points, with two of those three coming on the road. They went 9-0 SU off a loss in the regular season, winning their next games by 11, 25, 5, 6, 3, 34, 18, 4 and 25 points, an average margin of victory of more than 14.5 points per game. That’s a track record that certainly captures my attention! Take the Warriors. |
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05-22-16 | Warriors v. Thunder +3.5 | Top | 105-133 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
Take Oklahoma City (#712) In the three regular season meetings between the Warriors and the Thunder, Oklahoma City won the rebounding battle by a combined 40 boards. That was not unusual for the single best rebounding team in the NBA this decade – OKC is no joke when it comes to dominating the glass. In OKC’s Game 1 win at Golden State, the Thunder were +8 on the boards. But Oklahoma City, as a team, was clearly fatigued in Game 2 after taking three straight to close out the Spurs, then Game 1 of this series. Once Golden State made their run to open the second half, the Thunder simply didn’t have the energy to counter. Kevin Durant, following the loss: “I think they just got all the 50-50 balls on the offensive glass. It kind of surprises when guys are running in there because we're so good in transition. But they were in there and able to get their hands on some basketballs, so you have to give them credit……It's on us to make adjustments, boxing guys out and putting bodies on them and getting those rebounds. As simple as that. So we can't have that next game." Now OKC has had three full days off since that ugly second half against the Warriors, primed to bounce back strong. It’s surely worth noting that OKC hasn’t lost a home game by more than four points since their second game following the All Star Break back in February. They’re 5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS in their last five tries coming off a loss, dating back to the final week of the regular season; 21-9 SU off a loss since Day 1 this year. Golden State has played four road games here in the playoffs. They’ve won exactly one of those four games in regulation, and that came off a home loss to the Rockets in Game 2 when Houston was ‘fat and happy’ and Golden State was supremely motivate. OKC sure isn’t ‘fat and happy’ today…. Take the Thunder. |
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05-16-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 108-102 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
Take Golden State (#702) The Spurs were old and tired, and the physicality of OKC’s game—both in the paint and on the perimeter – wore San Antonio down as the series progressed. That’s how OKC turned a 2-1 series deficit into a 4-2 series win. But Golden State is anything BUT worn down. In fact, the silver lining for the Warriors regarding Steph Curry’s injury problems here in the playoffs is that Curry is now the freshest player on the floor, with only 123 minutes of court time since the regular season finale back on April 13h. Golden State closed out their series against the Blazers last Wednesday. It’s surely worth noting that the Warriors are 21-4 SU, 16-9 ATS with two days or more between games, a squad that has consistently overachieved when rested and ready. OKC was tied or had the lead in the fourth quarter of all three regular season meetings, yet the Thunder did not win a game or cover a pointspread against the Warriors in any of those three contests. Why not? Steve Kerr’s roster flexibility on the defensive end game him all kinds of options to defend Durant and Westbrook during crunch time. Andre Igoudala, Klay Thompson and Shaun Livingston will all get their chance to defend Russell Westbrook, forcing Westbrook to deal with a lot of different defensive looks. Igoudala, Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green will all rotate defensive assignments against Kevin Durant, again, giving the Warriors the flexibility to try different looks against the OKC superstars. The Warriors have been pointspread machines on this floor in recent weeks, 7-1 ATS in their last eight tries against the closing number. OKC was a no-show in Game 1 on the road of their last series, blown out by 32 points. While I’m not going to call for an Absolute Annihilation like that Game 1 defeat at San Antonio, I’m not convinced they’ll be able to hang tough with the defending champs tonight. Take the Warriors. |
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05-15-16 | Heat +4.5 v. Raptors | Top | 89-116 | Loss | -102 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
Take Miami (#549) This one comes down to one basic question: Who do we trust in a ‘Win or go home’ situation? The starting point for that question comes down to historical context. Toronto is 2-6 all tie in elimination games. They lost on this floor to Brooklyn in Game 7 two years ago, and blew a 16 point fourth quarter lead in the first round against Indiana this year, failing to cover the pointspread. Their two best players, Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are both flawed in this setting. DeRozan has been hampered by a thumb injury, shooting just 38% from the floor in the series. Lowry is averaging only 5.3 assists per game in this series while also shooting at a 38% clip; a guy not exactly known for stepping up in his biggest games. Miami has won their last four Game 7’s; now 7-1 in their last eight tries when facing elimination in a playoff series. To put that into context with Toronto’s failures in closeout games, we’re looking at a combined 13-3 (81%) angle in support of the road underdog here. And Dwayne Wade, unlike Lowry and DeRozan, is a guy who I want my money on in this ‘must win’ role. Wade, talking about Game 7: “You've got to do a little more. Obviously, it's a great environment to be in. ... It's phenomenal. But you've got to give everything you have. There's no tomorrow. That's the way we approach it. I think it's going to be two teams trying to give everything they have. Best team wins, man." The Raptors only cover as home favorites in this series was in Game 5 and even that comes with an asterisk – a one point lead with 1:33 left on the clock turned into an eight point win after Lowry hit a pair of tough, contested jumpers with the shot clock winding down. A team that is 2-5 ATS as home chalk in the playoffs will be hard pressed to win this game at all, let alone winning it by any sort of margin! Take the Heat. |
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05-08-16 | Spurs v. Thunder +1.5 | Top | 97-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Oklahoma City (#528) I don’t bet zig-zags in the NBA Playoffs blindly, by any stretch of the imagination. But this series has all the makings of a legitimate zig-zag series, where betting on the loser of the previous game makes perfect sense. We’ve seen the zig-zag cash in Game 2, when OKC bounced back off their Game 1 debacle. We saw it cash again in Game 3, when San Antonio made the key plays down the stretch to emerge with a four point victory. And I expect to see the zig-zag be the defining factor in Game 4 tonight. Kevin Durant knows that the Thunder don’t need to make dramatic changes to beat the Spurs tonight. Here’s his quote, talking about Game 3: “They made tough 2s, they made 3s. We did a good job of making them shoot tough shots, but they made them.” The Spurs have connected from three point range at a 46% clip here in the postseason, an unsustainable number, well above their 37.5% mark during the regular season. They’ve hit more than half of their shots from three point range in each of their two wins in this series. Without that three point barrage, San Antonio is certainly no better than OKC. I like the talk out of the Thunder locker room following their Game 3 loss – no panic, only focus. And I certainly like to hear this quote from Russell Westbrook, arguably the best player on the floor. “(I took) too many shots (in Game 3). I've got to do a better job getting guys shots. I've got to get other guys involved, especially to beat this team. Even though I had some shots I (usually) make, I've got to read and find ways to get guys shots. I take the blame." A focused Westbrook at the top of his game is a ‘bet-on’ guy, plain and simple. This play gets bumped up to Big Ticket status thanks to this generous pointspread. For reference, the full strength Thunder faced the full-strength Spurs on the opening night of the season. Oklahoma City was a 4/4.5 point home favorite in that game, notching a win and cover. Both teams are at full strength now. Both teams have essentially lived up to expectations or exceeded expectations since opening night. San Antonio isn’t coming off a loss, like they were in Game 3. Yet this pointspread has still been adjusted 5.5 points compared to where it was. That’s waaaay too much of an adjustment in this bettor’s opinion, particularly in a clear OKC spot. Big Ticket: Take the Thunder |
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05-02-16 | Hawks +8 v. Cavs | Top | 93-104 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
Take Atlanta (#503) I don’t want to lay a big price with Cleveland tonight. The Cavs have been off since sweeping the Pistons out of the playoffs last Sunday, an eight game break between games. They were in this exact same spot last year – coming off a first round sweep against the Celtics, with eight days off between the end of the first round and the beginning of the second round. The Cavs trailed from the opening tip in Game 1 of their next series, losing outright at home to the Bulls. Cleveland was the better team – they won four of the next five to close out Chicago – but they did not bring their ‘A’ game off that long layoff. I’m expecting similar results this year, especially with the way the Hawks have this game circled on their schedules, very much a ‘statement’ game for the road underdog. The Cavs are 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS against Atlanta since the start of the Eastern Conference Finals last year, including a pair of late season victories over the Hawks last month. Atlanta had the single best defensive stats in the NBA post All Star Break, holding foes to 96 points per 100 possessions. In Round 1 against the Celtics, their D was even better, holding Boston to just over 91 points per 100 possessions. Yet in those two head-to-head matchups in April, the Cavs averaged 104.2 points per 100 possessions while beating the Hawks, once by a bucket in OT, the other time by double digits. So what’s likely to be different tonight? First, the Cavs cannot expected to be in great rhythm following that long layoff. Secondly, the Hawks aren’t a young, inexperienced playoff team anymore – they’re seasoned veterans with the mindset that they can win playoff games on the road. They closed out their series in Boston against the Celtics with a wire-2-wire road victory. Last year in the playoffs, they closed out their series against Brooklyn with a road win, notched a pair of playoff wins at Washington, including the series clincher, and took the Cavs to OT in Cleveland, covering wire-2-wire. And thirdly, I like the Hawks gameplan and confidence level, as expressed through these two key quotes. Kent Bazemore: “Winning Game 6 in Boston is a huge step for not only myself, but this team. I don't think a lot of people thought we were going to go up there and close it, the way they had been playing us all series. It's just a step for us in the right direction." Bazemore, talking about guarding LeBron: “You can’t go in humble. You have to make yourself angry. You have to do whatever it takes to accept that challenge because he’s a freight train. He brings it. He comes with everything he has. You have to do the same to hang in there.” Look for the Hawks to ‘hang in there’ for the full 48 minutes tonight. Take the Hawks. |
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05-01-16 | Pacers v. Raptors -5.5 | Top | 84-89 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
Take Toronto (#726) The Pacers aren’t good enough, mature enough or mentally tough enough to trust in a hostile Game 7 road environment. We saw Indiana completely melt down on this floor in Game 5, allowing a late 21-2 Raptors run. We saw them unable to hang tough in Game 2 on this floor, simply outclassed by the Raptors in a double digit loss. Other than Paul George , the Pacers haven’t gotten consistent production out of anyone in this series, and when it comes to matchup edges, Indiana has precious few And now that the Pacers have covered three straight in this series, the value pendulum has shifted towards the home favorite. For me, this bet comes down to two guys – Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, the Raptors All Star caliber backcourt. DeRozan has shot 32% in this series, Lowry 31%. These guys are elite – plain and simple – and I think they’ve got an ‘A” game in them. The Raptors haven’t had a big shooting game from three point range from anybody in this series either. DeMarre Carroll, Patrick Patterson and/or Terrence Ross are certainly capable of lighting it up today. The Raptors have far more ‘upside’ in this one game ‘win or go home’ setting than the Pacers do, plain and simple. Only six #7 seeds have won a first round series since the NBA expanded to it’s current format back in 1984. And in a Game 7 situation, the team that’s trailing won’t stop fouling in the final minute, giving the Raptors (an excellent free throw shooting team) an excellent chance to cover late if they’re not winning by margin already. Take the Raptors. |
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04-28-16 | Hawks -2 v. Celtics | Top | 104-92 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Atlanta (#701) The one thing the Celtics could not afford was another key injury. And while sparkplug point guard Isaiah Thomas is still expected to suit up tonight, he injured his ankle in Game 4 and tweaked it again in Game 5, resulting in a dismal 3-12 shooting effort for just seven points in their ugly Game 5 loss. Atlanta – the #1 defensive team in the NBA since the All Star Break – put their defensive focus on stopping Thomas, putting two or three defenders in his way so he couldn’t drive into the paint. That’s not going to change tonight. And this quote shows how frustrated Isaiah Thomas is with his limited supporting cast. “Their game plan was to let the other guys beat us. It should be a sign of disrespect to my teammates for them to put two on the ball every time I have it. Other guys have to step up and make plays. That's what it comes down to." The Hawks have led by 15 or more in four of the five games in this series; clearly the better of the two squads. They got hurt by a 42 point outburst from Thomas in Game 3, and then had a fourth quarter meltdown in Game 4, but they’ve been the better team throughout this series. The Celtics were bounced out of the first round last year, failing to win or cover their elimination game at home. Their previous playoff berth in 2013 also saw them get eliminated on their home floor. The Celtics roster has absolutely no ‘dig down deep and win a crucial playoff game’ experience other than that Game 4 comeback. Atlanta, on the other hand, went to the Eastern Conference Finals last year. They closed out their series against Brooklyn with a road win, notched a pair of playoff wins at Washington, including the series clincher, and took the Cavs to OT in Cleveland, covering wire-2-wire. This team is mentally tough, plain and simple, and their coach is absolutely a bet-on guy in these type of situations. Atlanta is road chalk here for a reason, the bigger, deeper and more experienced, battle tested squad. Expect them to close out the series with a win in Boston tonight, a play worthy of Big Ticket status. Big Ticket: Take the Hawks. |
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04-27-16 | Blazers v. Clippers +3.5 | Top | 108-98 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
Take the LA Clippers (#578) The Clippers were in the -8.5/-9 range for both Game 1 and Game 2 against Portland. Now, without Blake Griffin and Chris Paul, the Clippers are +3 at home in Game 5. Given the circumstances for both teams, that pointspread is a good notch or two into ‘overreaction’ territory, making the Clips a clear choice for this bettor. We’ve seen it 1000 times before. A team loses their star, then steps up for a game or two before the true reality of their situation sets in. The Warriors won and covered without Steph Curry. The Hornets won Games 3 and 4 at home without Nicholas Batum. Miami hasn’t done too badly without Chris Bosh. The Celtics stepped up in two home games without Avery Bradley. I could go on and on, but you get my point – these guys are all NBA talents, even the ‘scrubs’; and they’re capable of filling some pretty big shoes when given the opportunity. Doc Rivers quote speaks volumes: “We still have home court. No one has won a road game yet in this series. Now we have to find a way of winning tomorrow and that's as far as we can think right now. My job with the guys is to make sure that they're ready and focused. ….We've had 10 different lineups on the board. Most likely it will be a pretty big lineup." And it’s surely worth noting that the Clips played well without Griffin for more than half the season while the Austin Rivers/Pablo Prigioni combo at point guard are capable of filling Paul’s shoes for a night. Portland has no game film to dissect on Doc Rivers new rotations, while the Blazers aren’t changing anything; a legitimate advantage for the home underdog. And the Blazers – a young team without any recent history of postseason success – have all the makings of a ‘fat and happy’ squad after tying up the series at two games apiece in Portland, while watching LA’s two superstars both go down to injury. It’s a classic ‘trap’ spot for Terry Stotts squad – be sure to take at least a taste of LA on the moneyline as a portion of your overall wager. Take the Clippers. |
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04-26-16 | Pacers +7 v. Raptors | Top | 99-102 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
Take Indiana (#569) I’m not looking to lay points with a Raptors team that is in the midst of one of their worst stretches of basketball of the entire season right now. Here’s what Charles Barkley had to say about Toronto following their poorly played Game 4 loss in Indiana over the weekend: “I go back and look at my career and great teams are always greedy. Toronto is just a good team. They were content with the split. Look at their energy level in Game #3 versus Game #4, it is like night and day. You had to know Indiana was going to come out and punch you in the mouth. You can just see it in their energy level.” The Raptors earned the #2 seed in the East because of their great guard play, with both Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan playing at an All Star level. That duo has collapsed against the Pacers. After the Game 4 loss, Lowry now has a grand total of four ATS covers in 15 games as a starting point guard in the playoffs. DeRozan was #3 in the regular season in free throw attempts, but he’s failed to get to the line even one time twice in the last three games. Between them, that duo is shooting under 31% from the floor in the series. Raptors head coach Dwane Casey: “Give Indiana credit, they've done a good job on DeMar and Kyle.” The only real edge Toronto has enjoyed in this series was in the frontcourt, where Jonas Valanciunas owned the paint for the first there games: 48 rebounds, 42 points and four blocks. But Pacers head coach Frank Vogel tweaked his lineup for Game 4, inserting impressive rookie big man Myles Turner into the starting lineup. After losing the battle of the board by 52 in the first two games, having Turner as a starter was a difference maker, as the Pacers won the Game 4 rebounding battle for the first time all series. In addition to the success from Turner on the boards, the Pacers finally got step-up efforts from Ian Mahinmi and George Hill, both of whom enjoyed their best game of the series. With Paul George finally getting some help, the Pacers are ‘live dogs’ in what should be a down to the wire affair in Toronto tonight! Take the Pacers. |
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04-25-16 | Heat v. Hornets -2 | Top | 85-89 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
Take Charlotte (#562) The single best offensive team in the NBA this year, Golden State, finished the season with a 112.5 points per 100 possessions average. The single worst defensive team in the NBA, the LA Lakers, allowed 109.2 points per 100 possessions. Through the first two games of this series, the Miami Heat averaged 134.7 points per 100 possessions. That obviously couldn’t continue, and we saw Miami fall apart offensive in Charlotte over the weekend, scoring only 80 points on 34% shooting; missing 52 of their 79 shot attempts. Let’s give Charlotte head coach Steve Clifford credit for not panicking when facing an 0-2 deficit. Here was his quote prior to Game 3: “Shooting is NOT their strength…..You have to look at how they're scoring. They're not running sets that we're having trouble with coverages on. It's one-on-one stuff.... Sometimes, the other team just makes shots. That's what's really going on." Clifford didn’t make wholesale adjustments to his defense, and the pendulum swung the other way with Miami’s jump shooting in Game 3. But Clifford made two BIG adjustments to his offense – literally – inserting big men Al Jefferson and Frank Kaminsky into his starting lineup in place of the injured Nick Batum and defensive minded Cody Zeller. The end result? Miami got outscored 52-28 in the paint; a problem that won’t be easy to fix with Hassan Whiteside banged up (missing practice yesterday) and Chris Bosh out long term. Head coach Eric Spoelstra just doesn’t have a bevy of quality low post options. Meanwhile, here’s a great quote from Courtney Lee talking about how Clifford’s rotation adjustments have helped their offense. “There’s mismatches all over the place with that. We utilized Kemba (Walker) using his quickness in pick-and-rolls on Deng, and then Frank started to post-up. It worked to our benefit. Hopefully, they keep it up. I’ve seen the off-guard guard Kemba before, but not in the sense of a guard then [switching] to guard a big man.” That’s a ‘bet-on’ quote if I ever saw one! In Miami’s last road game of the regular season, they blew a 26 point lead at Boston while going eight full minutes without a single basket. In their first road game of the playoffs, Miami had two extended scoreless droughts of six minutes or more. In fact, the Heat are now 2-6 SU, 1-7 ATS in their last eight road tilts. We might think of Miami as a veteran, battle tested squad, but they’ve shown plenty of ‘fall apart and panic’ tendencies in hostile road environments. Take the Hornets. |
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04-21-16 | Raptors -1 v. Pacers | Top | 101-85 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
Big Ticket: NBA Game of the Month: Take Toronto (#535). The Raptors had lost seven consecutive playoff games dating back to 2014 prior to their win over Indiana in Game 2 of this series, a much needed confidence boost. A fully healthy DeMarre Carroll made his first start for the Raptors since January and he was a difference maker on the defensive end; a big part of Indiana’s offensive struggles. More than anything, Game 2 was about Toronto’s bigs outplaying Indiana’s bigs. The Raptors were +13 on the boards and +16 in points in the paint, in part due to a huge game from Jonas Valanciunas, with 23 points and 15 boards. Indiana’s Paul George following the defeat: “He's been huge, literally. We're doing a good job on Kyle and DeMar but the third guy, Valanciunas, has stepped up. He's who is causing us the problems right now and we've got to figure it out." Pacers head coach Frank Vogel: “We've got our hands full with their frontcourt.” The reason that Toronto’s frontcourt edge is so important for tonight’s meeting is because the Raptors still haven’t gotten a good playoff game from either one of their stars. Kyle Lowry is just 7-26 from the floor in the first two games, 1-12 from three point range with eight turnovers in two games. DeMar DeRozan has been even worse: 10-37 from the floor, without a single free throw attempt in Game 2. That duo is too good to get shut down long term; a pair of All Star caliber players. The Raptors are just 9-37 from three point range in this series, something that must be considered ‘improvable’ because they finished #4 in the NBA in three point shooting percentage during the regular season. And if Toronto’s guards play reasonably well, the Pacers limited roster is likely to be outclassed. Paul George is a superstar. His teammates are not. The Pacers other players besides George have combined to shoot 43-112 in this series, and they’re not getting a talent infusion prior to Game 3. Toronto won 23 road games this season, and went 11-5 ATS in this ‘short favorite’ role (-3.5 or less). Meanwhile, the Pacers lost 15 times on this floor, including ‘down the stretch’ home losses to lottery bound Chicago and Orlando, and the Pacers had a losing ATS mark (7-10) as a short underdog (+3.5 or less). Toronto is the better of these two teams, and I expect them to win this game! Big Ticket: Take the Raptors. |
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04-19-16 | Celtics v. Hawks -6.5 | Top | 72-89 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show |
Take Atlanta (#524) Success in the NBA Playoffs is as much about staying healthy as any other factor. Teams that suffer impact injuries go home early, plain and simple. And that’s what makes the Avery Bradley injury so important to consider for the Celtics. Make no mistake about it – Bradley might not move the needle for the general public or the betting markets, but he absolutely moves the needle when it comes to ‘on-floor impact’; particularly on the defensive end of the court. The Celtics D held Atlanta to 5-26 shooting (19%) from three point range in Game 1, in large part due to Bradley’s pressure on the perimeter. Here’s a quote from Blazers point guard Damian Lillard following his last matchup with Bradley: “I told him he was the best perimeter defender in the league. Because he is. … He's there every possession. He doesn't get screened. He's tough. You've got to give credit where it's due." How about Warriors head coach Steve Kerr, talking about Bradley right before the Celtics knocked off the Warriors in Golden State last month: “He just puts a lot of pressure on the ball. ... He knows what people are doing and he oftentimes jumps plays as they’re happening or before they happen. So, I agree with Damian (Lillard). I think Avery Bradley’s as good of an on-ball defender as there is in the league.” Kyle Korver is an ATS difference maker for Atlanta. Since the beginning of March, the Hawks are 11-2 SU, 9-4 ATS when Korver hits at least two three pointers. Their two SU losses? By two to Cleveland in OT, by four to Golden State in OT -- no shame there! And two of the ATS losses were in double digit wins. Meanwhile, the Hawks went 4-6 SU and ATS when Korver hit one three pointer or less during that same span. Bradley dominated the perimeter defensively in Game 1, and Korver went 1-10 from the floor, 0-7 from three point range. The Hawks got double doubles from Al Horford and Jeff Teague in Game 1, but their perimeter shooting struggles doomed their chances of ATS success. Without the Celtics best on-ball defender available, look for those perimeter shots to fall tonight – from Korver and others -- turning this game into a comfortable win for the home team. Take the Hawks. |
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04-18-16 | Pacers +7.5 v. Raptors | Top | 87-98 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 20 m | Show |
Take Indiana (#517) The hard numbers here tell a good portion of the story. Toronto earned the #2 seed in the East because they enjoyed elite level guard play all season long, with both DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry playing at an All Star caliber level. But when it comes to postseason success, Lowry in particular has been nothing short of awful. Lowry has been the starting point guard in 12 NBA Playoff games in his career. His team has gone 3-9 SU, 2-9-1 ATS in those contests – betting against Lowry has cashed at an 82% clip in his postseason career. And that’s a trend worth riding again tonight. Lowry’s quote following Game 1 doesn’t exactly reek of confidence: “If you start thinking like that (negatively), your energy gets zapped. You start thinking ‘Oh sh**, here we go again’. You can’t think like that.” From a guy who went 3-13 from the floor, missed five of his nine free throw attempts and had six turnovers, a ‘confidence zapping’ quote doesn’t inspire me to lay points this evening. And with Paul George playing elite level defense on DeRozan (held to 5-19 from the floor in Game 1), it’s not going to be easy for Toronto to notch a SU win in this game at all, let alone winning by any sort of margin. Paul George played like a superstar in his playoff opener. The rest of the Pacers team did not. George hit 12 shots, the rest of his teammates combined for only 22 makes in 48 minutes. Indiana got into foul trouble, putting the Raptors on the line a whopping 38 times. The Pacers lost the battle of the boards by 14. Yet Indiana still won the game by double figures, despite a box score that wasn’t particularly pretty. Pacers head coach Frank Vogel has been in these spots before, and I trust Indiana’s veteran mentality enough to avoid a letdown here in a game where the pointspread simply doesn’t mesh with current reality. Take the Pacers. |
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04-16-16 | Rockets +13.5 v. Warriors | Top | 78-104 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 16 m | Show |
Take Houston (#503) In recent weeks, the Warriors have been pushed to the limit. Instead of resting starters and cruising to the #1 seed in the West, Golden State put their energy and effort into setting the All Time NBA record for win. They accomplished that goal; notching win #73 in a raucous blowout over Memphis on the final night of the regular season; one hell of an accomplishment. Even though this is the start of the playoffs, the Warriors just played a bigger game than this one! And with the spotlight squarely shinning on the defending champs, we’re seeing an inflated pointspread here. Last year, in three playoff games on this floor, Houston closed +10.5 , +10 and +9.5. They Rockets covered the spread in both Game 1 and Game 2 of that series, losing the two games by a combined margin of five points. In recent weeks, Golden State laid -11.5 to a slumping Celtics team on the second night of back-2-backs. They laid -12.5 to a lottery bound Wizards team also in a back-2-back situation. Now they are laying -13 today against a Rockets team that has only lost twice by more than 13 points since the All Star Break. That, folks, is what old timer bettors call an ‘overlay’ – this pointspread is simply too high! Golden State went 2-6 ATS as double digit favorites down the stretch, failing to notch blowouts the way they were notching them throughout the first four months of the season. And it’s surely worth noting that on their way to the title last year, the Warriors went 1-7 ATS as home favorites in Games 1 & 2 of their four playoff series (in regulation; they did cover one additional spread of -6 in overtime). There will be no pointspread bargains to support the Warriors this postseason….. Don’t underestimate the difference that Patrick Beverly can be expected to make in this year’s playoff series after he missed last year’s series due to injury. Beverly doesn’t move the needle on any pointspread, but he’s a feisty, ‘sticky’ defender that JB Bickerstaff can stick in front of Steph Curry to slow him down a little bit. And, of course, the Rockets offensive firepower gives them a legit shot to rally from behind if we need it. Too many points! Take the Rockets. |
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04-12-16 | Grizzlies v. Clippers -7.5 | Top | 84-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
Take the LA Clippers (#510) “The Clippers have nothing to play for.” “The Clippers would be better off letting Memphis win so they might be able to face them again in the first round.” “Doc Rivers wants to rest starters.” I’ve seen all three ‘assumptions’ speculated about by bettors, columnists and pundits; a big part of the reason why this line is sitting at -7.5 instead of -10 or higher; the projected line if both of these two teams were expected to go ‘all out’ this evening. There’s only one problem with those assumptions – they’re all wrong! Memphis isn’t going to finish with the #5 seed and play LA again in the first round – not unless the Grizz pull the upset here tonight, pull the upset on the second night of back-2-backs at Golden State tomorrow night as the Warriors go for the all-time regular season wins record AND the Nuggets winning at Portland tomorrow as well. That ain’t gonna happen, and Grizzlies head coach Dave Joerger knows it. Meanwhile, there’s this whole ‘Doc Rivers doesn’t care’ motif floating around. I’m not buying that either, and there’s no evidence whatsoever except pure speculation from non-knowledgeable parties that Rivers is going to do that. Instead, from all indications, LA is going all out tonight, then taking it easy tomorrow in their season finale at Phoenix. Blake Griffin is still working his way back into the rotation, and Rivers wants to get him ample court time with LA’s veterans – Chris Paul, DeAndre Jordan and JJ Redick in particular, all of whom are expected to suit up and play normal minutes this evening. LA has won nine of their last ten, the lone loss coming by two points at OKC as 16 point underdogs; playing good basketball despite the fact that they’ve been transitioning their superstar back into the mix. But they’ll remember what happened the last time they played the Grizz, losing by double digits as 9.5 point favorites during an ugly stretch of five losses in six games. LA was outworked and outhustled in that contest. I’m not expecting a repeat performance here. Take the Clippers. |
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04-10-16 | Jazz -6.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 100-84 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
Take Utah (#507) Very quietly, waaaaaay underneath the radar, the Utah Jazz have been playing excellent basketball. Utah is 10-5 SU in their last 15 ballgames, which sounds pretty good. But when you take a look at their five losses during that span – OKC, Golden State in OT, San Antonio, the LA Clippers and Chicago (when the Bulls were relatively healthy) – you can see pretty clearly that the Jazz have been beating all the teams that they are supposed to beat, while hanging tough with the elites. When the Jazz have stepped down in class in recent weeks, they’ve consistently dominated, notching wins and covers against the Suns (twice), T-wolves (twice), Lakers, Rockets, Bucks, Kings, Wizards and Pelicans over the last month; now 11-4 ATS in their last 15 contests. It’s also worth noting how dominating Utah’s defense has been in every previous meeting with the Nuggets this year, holding Denver to 81, 88 and 84 points in the three previous meetings. Utah is coming off back-2-back heartbreakers, losing by a bucket to the Spurs, then by three in OT to the Clippers in their last three games. This is no letdown spot, as the Jazz are locked into a battle with Houston for the final playoff spot in the West. The Rockets close out against the Lakers, Kings and T-wolves – not exactly a tough slate. Utah’s Gordon Hayward, following that OT loss to the Clips: "We've got a three-game season coming up. I think that's the way we've got to look at it. We have to win each one of these next three games if we want to get in. You go from there and you just put this one behind you." Denver beat San Antonio on Friday Night, then celebrated like they had won the NBA Title, a big ‘statement game’ win for the Nuggets; the only team in the league to knock off both the Warriors and Spurs this year. Shooting guard Gary Harris: “That’s a pretty cool accomplishment.” Of course, prior to that victory against a Spurs team resting four starters, the Nuggets had lost at home by 22 to OKC, 9 to Sacramento and 9 to Dallas in their previous three home games. With the Jazz hungry coming off a pair of tight losses and the Nuggets ‘fat and happy’ coming off a win, Utah is a clear choice for this bettor! Take the Jazz. |
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04-09-16 | Cavs -6.5 v. Bulls | Top | 102-105 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
Take Cleveland (#707) This one is simple. The Bulls are already talking about their season in the past tense, even though they won’t be mathematically eliminated until AFTER they lose today. Jimmy Butler’s quote speaks volumes: "Obviously it's not the way that we wanted. I think everybody thinks about it each and every day. It probably keeps everybody up late, I know it does for me. But we can't change it now. It is what it is." Head coach Fred Hoiberg, echoed those ‘wait till next year’ sentiments: "It's tough. I've always been a guy -- I was a long shot to make it in this league. I made it. If not for heart disease, I would have played. I might still be playing, having more fun. Went into a tough job and succeeded at a very high level at Iowa State. I want to get us to a point where we're competing for a championship and it hadn't happened. I take it very personal. I'm the first guy to look at every night in the mirror and try to figure out what I can do better. So it's been tough.” The Bulls have had plenty of chances to fight back or hang tough to earn the final playoff spot in the East. Instead, they’ve stunk up the joint on both ends of the floor; just 3-7 SU in their last ten ballgames, including home losses to the Knicks, Hawks and Pistons. This is not a team responding well to adversity these days. Meanwhile, the Cavs are coming to play for their regular season road finale. Lebron James: “All of our guys are in the lineup (Saturday), so we obviously want to play well (after sitting in a loss to Indiana in their last game). Head coach Tyrone Lue:"(We want to stay in) the rhythm we've been in the last five games, outside the Indiana game. Staying in an offensive flow and our defense has been really good, just staying in that flow and rhythm." The Cavs beat the Bulls by double digits in their only meeting since the All Star Break. Expect similar results today in a game that has 'run 'em out of the gym' potential.. Take the Cavaliers. |
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04-06-16 | Thunder v. Blazers -2.5 | Top | 115-120 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
Take Portland (#514) I’m assuming Billy Donovan is not a complete idiot, because nothing ‘official’ has been announced yet. But it makes a ton of sense for OKC to take it easy tonight. The Thunder are locked into the #3 seed. Portland and Memphis are in a battle for the #5 and #6 seeds. The Grizzlies are playing without half their roster; losers of ten of their last 13 overall, stumbling towards the postseason. Portland is 5-1 in their last six, 23-11 SU in their last 34 games. If Donovan has any sense, he’ll be well aware that playing Memphis in the first round will be a much easier matchup than playing Portland. And Donovan can help create that first round matchup with Memphis by losing tonight. It’s the second night of back-2-backs for the Thunder, coming off an easy blowout win in the altitude of Denver last night. They’ve got two days off following tonight’s game, before easy matchups against the Lakers and Kings in their next two contests. If ever there was a spot for a coach to get his guys some extra rest, this is that spot; a spot where it behooves the road underdog to lose! Meanwhile, it behooves the Blazers to win! My clients and I cashed a winning bet supporting Portland in Sacramento last night. Here’s an excerpt from that write-up: “The Blazers are chasing the #5 seed, and they’ve got legitimate motivation here, unlike most NBA teams that are fighting for seeding. Portland finished #5 in the West last year, and they’ve got the chance to do it again, despite losing four starters last offseason. Point guard Damian Lillard: ‘I think it would say a lot about how hard our team worked if we can finish in the same spot that we finished in last season. If we finish the right way and have our minds right then that's definitely a possibility’” The Blazers have beaten the Thunder in every meeting on this court over the last two seasons. They’re 7-0 SU in their last seven at home; 16-2 SU in their last 18 on this floor. That’s an under-the-radar streak worth riding this evening. Take the Blazers |
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04-05-16 | Blazers -2.5 v. Kings | Top | 115-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Take Portland (#717) Sacramento’s current six game ATS winning streak is as fraudulent as it gets. They trailed by 28 against these same Blazers last week before a late 16-1 run over the final five minutes allowed them to escape with a 12 point loss as 13 point underdogs. It was a similar story at home against Miami this past weekend, when the Heat went flat with a 20 point lead late in the third quarter. The Kings ended up losing by six as 6.5 point underdogs. And while they ran the Nuggets out of the gym the following night, it’s surely worth noting this quote from Nuggets guard Will Barton: “Tonight we played a depleted Sacramento team and got our butts kicked. It's a terrible effort. Just a bad effort." In other words, it was more ‘Denver bad’ than ‘Sacramento good’ But the markets are looking at aggregate results, and they see the Kings as a team that’s playing better basketball down the stretch – hence the short pointspread tonight. And one thing Sacramento has not been able to do is beat Portland on any floor, with the Blazers sporting a five game winning streak in this series including a pair of double digit wins over the Kings in the last two meetings. The Kings have a losing SU and ATS record coming off a win when playing at home this year, and they’ve won back to back games only once since their first two contests coming out of the All Star Break. I’m not expecting that to change here. This isn’t a spot to step in front of Portland, not after the Blazers got thoroughly annihilated in Golden State on Sunday, allowing a season worst 136 points on 57% shooting; 60% from three point range. The Blazers are chasing the #5 seed, and they’ve got legitimate motivation here, unlike most NBA teams that are fighting for seeding. Portland finished #5 in the West last year, and they’ve got the chance to do it again, despite losing four starters last offseason. Point guard Damian Lillard: “I think it would say a lot about how hard our team worked if we can finish in the same spot that we finished in last season. If we finish the right way and have our minds right then that's definitely a possibility." Take the Blazers. |
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04-04-16 | Villanova v. North Carolina -2.5 | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 58 m | Show |
Take North Carolina (#602) I’ve been riding Villanova throughout this tournament; cashing with ‘Nova against Miami, Kansas and Oklahoma, with two of the three coming as ‘Big Ticket’ winners. But the national title game is a different animal completely. History tells us two things about who can be expected to cut down the nets on Monday Night. First, history tells us to bet ON the team that has the superior overall talent, as measured by NBA prospects. And secondly, history tells us NOT to bet on the team that just shot 71% from the floor to reach the championship game! Last year, Duke sent Justice Winslow, Jahlil Okafor and Tyus Jones to the NBA draft. Two years ago, first round pick Shabazz Napier carried UConn to the title. Three years ago, Louisville had Gorgiu Dieng. Four years ago, Kentucky’s Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist went #1 and #2, followed by Terrence Jones, Marquis Teague, Darius Miller and Doron Lamb among the Top 46 picks. In 2011, UConn only had one first rounder in the draft, but he was the guy who carried the team – point guard Kemba Walker. Duke’s title team in 2010 featured future NBA-ers Kyle Singler, Miles and Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly. Following their championship in 2009, North Carolina sent Ty Lawson, Tyler Hansbrough and Wayne Ellington into the first round, followed by Danny Green in the second round. Kansas got three players drafted following their 2008 title, including Brandon Rush in the lottery, Darrel Arthur later in the first round and Mario Chalmers at the beginning of the second round. The year before Florida had three lottery picks – Al Horford, Corey Brewer and Joakim Noah. I think you get my point! Villanova has no first rounders. They might have no second rounders either, with only Josh Hart, sitting among the top 60 prospects on the latest ‘Big Board’ draft rankings. That stands in sharp contrast with the Tar Heels, loaded with future NBA talent. Brice Johnson and Justin Jackson are likely to be on NBA rosters next Fall, while Marcus Paige, Kennedy Meeks and Theo Pinson could all get drafted as well. Advantage: Tar Heels. And I have no hesitation fading a team that just set an NCAA record for margin of victory in a Final Four game while hitting every shot in existence: 24-31 from two point range; 11-18 from three point range. Even for a good shooting team, nights like that are impossible to repeat. And that type of a blowout has FINALLY sent the betting markets scurrying towards the Wildcats; giving us a cheap price to lay with the superior team. Take North Carolina. |
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04-02-16 | Villanova -2 v. Oklahoma | Top | 95-51 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
Big Ticket: NCAA Tourney Game of the Year: Take Villanova (#811) There’s a legitimate reason why the sharp money has poured in on Villanova in their Final Four matchup against Oklahoma. Plain and simple – this is a nightmare venue for the Sooners. Oklahoma is here because they’ve been a great three point shooting team all year, connecting at a 42.8% clip for the season; ranked #2 in the nation. And they take a ton of three point shots, more than 40% of all of their shot attempts come from beyond the arc. NRG Arena in Houston is a football stadium, not a basketball court. This is the fourth set of NCAA Tournament games on this floor over the past six years. The nine tourney games played here during that span have gone 7-1-1 to the Under. Four of the seven Unders have stayed Under by more than 20 points, highlighted by ridiculously bad shooting form three point range. UConn won a title here in 2011 despite a 2-23 shooting effort from beyond the arc in their two Final Four victories. This is not a place for shooters to excel. And that makes this ongoing Buddy Hield narrative an easy one to bet against. Yes, Buddy has been the hottest shooter in the tournament, connecting on eight triples against Oregon as part of his 19-40 shooting effort from three point range in this tournament. But other than hitting shots, Hield hasn’t done much. He’s got a grand total of six assists in four NCAA tournament games, and his last steal came in the opening round against Cal State Bakersfield. The media loves this guy, but this is his nightmare venue and he’s not setting up his teammates the way an elite point guard should. And Nova has a nightmare defense for Hield as well. Their oversized backcourt just held Kansas’s Wayne Selden to an 0-6 shooting effort from three point land. The Wildcats were able to win their two games last weekend in dramatically different ways – a truly spectacular offensive showing against Miami, followed by a tight, defensive grinder against the Jayhawks. That versatility – the ability to win intense games against elite foes in a variety of different styles – bodes well for them here. My clients and I cashed a pair of winners supporting Villanova last weekend. Here’s an excerpt from my last write-up: “The 2016 Villanova Wildcats are being de-valued for the sins of their predecessors. There’s no question that ‘Nova’s tournament history under Jay Wright has not been good. They were bounced out in the Round of 32 last year and the year before, both times as favorites. In 2013, the Wildcats didn’t make it out of the first round. In 2012, they didn’t reach the tourney. In 2011, they got bounced in the first round. In 2010, ‘Nova got bounced in the Round of 32, as the favorite. The markets see Villanova’s recent history of postseason failure, and they view this team with considerable skepticism. But this isn’t last year’s ‘Nova team, or any of the recent versions. The 2016 Wildcats are truly elite. “Make no mistake about it – this year’s version of Villanova is different. They’ve got a senior point guard making great decisions with the basketball in Ryan Arcidiacono, with only six turnovers in his last six games. They’ve got a great inside/outside duo in Kris Jenkins and Josh Hart, the team’s two leading scorers. They’ve got great continuity, with seven of Wright’s eight key rotation players having suited up for every single game this season, a healthy squad. And ‘Nova is playing defense at a truly elite level.” Lon Kruger is a sharp head coach and these Sooners are anything but frauds. But Oklahoma has been a dramatically overvalued commodity for months now: 8-19 ATS dating all the way back to December, failing to cover three games in a row at any point during that span. They’ve covered two straight heading into this one…..Big Ticket NCAA Tourney Game of the Year: Take Villanova. |
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04-01-16 | Cavs v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 110-108 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
Take Atlanta (#508) My clients and I cashed an easy ‘right side’ winner supporting the Hawks immediately following their last loss; a poor defensive effort against the Wizards. The Hawks bounced back following that defeat with a 21 point victory. This isn’t new or different for a team that hasn’t lost back-2-back games since immediately following the All Star Break. In fact, following each and every one of their last four losses, the Hawks have bounced back with a double digit blowout in their next contest; a team that is not amused by subpar efforts. The Hawks lost at Toronto earlier in the week in a terrible spot at the tail end of a successful road trip – no shock there. Still, head coach Mike Budenholzer was fuming following the loss to the Raptors: “We have to be better against a team like this. I think it's hopefully a lesson for us." Make no mistake about it – the Hawks have this game circled on their calendars. The Cavs swept this team out of the Eastern Conference Finals last year. In their only regular season meeting this year, the Hawks shot 37% and lost by double digits in Cleveland. This time around, Atlanta finally gets Cleveland on their home floor, very much a statement game for the home team. And frankly, it’s a cheap price to lay in this spot for a team that has played as well as any team in the Eastern Conference – far better than the more hyped Cavs – over the course of the last month. Atlanta is playing elite level defense; Cleveland has lost SU and ATS in each of their last three tries on the second night of back-2-backs. In fact, none of those losses have been close, failing by 18.5 points ATS against Brooklyn, 25 points ATS against Miami and 15 points ATS against Utah. At 3-7 ATS in their last ten games, the Cavs continue to be an overpriced commodity, an easy team to fade tonight. Take the Hawks. |
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03-31-16 | George Washington +2 v. Valparaiso | Top | 76-60 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
Take George Washington (#713) These two teams are mirror images of one another – deep, veteran squads with an international flavor to their lineups. Both have strong fundamentals but limited athleticism. Both feature lineups chock full of juniors and seniors. My numbers make this game a true pick ‘em, and at this time of year (the numbers are tight) in a marquee showdown at Madison Square Garden, I’m more than willing to take points in a game where the favorite shouldn’t be favored…. Valpo is favored here thanks to full season numbers. It makes sense – the Crusaders were clearly spurned by the NCAA Selection Committee, denied a bid to the Big Dance despite a 26-5 season. George Washington wasn’t as good, particularly in the middle of the regular season, when their overall power rating tumbled during a 4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS month long skid from mid-January to mid-February. Valpo never had a slump like that, so their power rating never took a hit. GWU might have struggled for a bit, but their ‘A’ game is really good. How good? Well, they beat Virginia in SU fashion as an underdog. They beat Seton Hall in SU fashion as an underdog. They had two wins over Big 10 squads, a win over Tennessee and a tight, spread covering loss to Cinci in non-conference play. Here in the postseason, the Colonials have shown that same flair for stepping up against quality foes. They blew out Monmouth as an underdog away from home, hit key shots down the stretch to knock off a surging Florida squad and annihilated a red hot San Diego State team in their last outing. It’s worth noting how different those teams are – one elite defensively, another elite offensively and the third elite athletically. That ability to beat very different types of teams in very different settings in addition to the ‘bonus’ we’re getting with this pointspread puts me firmly on the underdog GW squad tonight. Take George Washington. |
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03-30-16 | Clippers v. Wolves +5.5 | Top | 99-79 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
Take Minnesota (#506) My clients and I suffered a wrong side loser betting against the Clippers on Monday on the second night of back-2-backs against the Celtics. Boston didn’t show; LA played ‘A’ level defense and the outcome was never in doubt by the end of the first quarter. That being said, my rationale for fading LA this week hasn’t changed. As road favorites against a suddenly surging Timberwolves team tonight, I’m expecting the Clippers to struggle to win this game at all, let alone winning it by margin. The Clippers are firmly locked into the #4 seed in the West; with virtually no chance of moving up or down in the standings. They’ve five games behind the Thunder and 5.5 games ahead of the Grizzlies with only nine games remaining on their schedule – there’s no late push to improve their seeding. That makes this week’s tough schedule and next week’s expected return for Blake Griffin both huge factors. Griffin is back in practice. Doc Rivers only goal over the next few weeks is to get Griffin back on the court without disrupting the chemistry they’ve built without him over the past three months, while ensuring that his key veteran contributors (Chris Paul, DeAndre Jordan, JJ Redick, Jamal Crawford and Paul Pierce, in particular) get ample rest so they’re fresh for the playoffs. With Griffin back on the practice floor, Rivers is far more concerned about getting him back into the flow than in gameplanning for their next opponent. LA is playing a tough late season stretch of four games in five nights. They’ve got a much ‘bigger’ game in Oklahoma City tomorrow night, and two more back-2-back sets over the next two weeks. This is anything BUT a step-up spot for the road favorite. Meanwhile, the T-wolves are playing as well as any lottery-bound team in the league, particularly in the underdog role: 5-2 ATS in their last seven tries, including SU wins against the Wizards and Thunder. It’s worth noting that one ATS loss came by a half point on the second of back-2-backs off a double OT win, and the other came in a throttling on the second of back-2-backs by the truly elite Spurs. If it hasn’t been an awful spot for the T-wolves, they’ve been covering, and this isn’t an awful spot. In fact, it’s a pretty good spot for Minnesota after the T-wolves blew a 20 point lead over the final 13 minutes of gametime against the lowly Suns in their last contest. Head coach Sam Mitchell: "I just think when we got up, there's a natural tendency to relax. We keep harping on these things. I don't like yelling at our guys, but it's the same things every night that you just have to keep drilling home until the light bulb comes on." Andrew Wiggins: “It's a process, and this can lead into next year. We don't want to stop. We play hard for a reason. We're building something here." Take the T-Wolves |
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03-28-16 | Celtics +4 v. Clippers | Top | 90-114 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
Take Boston (#749) There’s money to be made betting against the LA Clippers right now. Yes, the Clips got a win and cover against Denver yesterday thanks to a dominant third quarter in which the Nuggets couldn’t hit a shot, but that’s been the exception, not the rule for Doc Rivers squad. And on the second night of back-2-backs, I’m not convinced in the slightest that we’re going to see anything resembling LA’s ‘A’ game tonight. There are three ‘issues’ in LA right now. This team is essentially locked into the #4 seed. Blake Griffin is back at practice, but he won’t be back on the floor until next week. And it’s not like the Clippers were playing great basketball of late anyway, a team that’s just 4-6 SU in their last ten ballgames, with two of those four wins coming against lottery bound foes. LA is 5.5 games behind the Thunder for the #3 seed. They are 4.5 games ahead of the slumping, injury riddled Grizzlies for the #5 seed. LA isn’t going anywhere in terms of seeding – they’ll be the #4 in the West with homecourt advantage in the first round regardless of how they play over their final ten regular season games. LA’s only goal over the next few weeks is to get Griffin back on the court without disrupting the chemistry they’ve built without him over the past three months. Griffin got back to practice over the weekend. LA’s key contributors without him – namely Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan – have played far too many minutes in his absence. Don’t be shocked in the slightest if Doc Rivers uses his bench rather liberally until Griffin gets back on the floor next week, saving his starters legs for much more meaningful games with their best player available. The scoreboard result tonight – win or lose – is essentially meaningless for LA. That’s not the case for Boston, a team that has clearly declined since defensive stopper Jae Crowder got hurt. The Celtics are locked in a very tight battle with Miami, Atlanta and Charlotte for the #3-#6 seeds in the East, with home court advantage in the first round on the line. After going through a nasty skid immediately after the Crowder injury, Boston has bounced back with four straight wins. Their defense has improved by leaps and bounds over that span, and they’ve been moneymakers in this road dog role, worth backing as underdogs this evening. Take the Celtics. |
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03-27-16 | Syracuse v. Virginia -7.5 | Top | 68-62 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
Take Virginia (#714) I’ll give Syracuse credit for playing some outstanding crunch time basketball against Gonzaga, on the heels of easier than expected wins against slumping Dayton and ‘fat and happy’ Middle Tennessee State on the opening weekend of the Big Dance. But make no mistake about it. Virginia isn’t some ‘glad to be here’ kind of team. And while all three of Syracuse’s tourney opponents have had to hurriedly cram ‘how to beat Jim Boeheim’s 2-3 zone’ into their gameplans, Virginia already knows how to beat it – they’ve done it multiple times since the Orange joined the ACC three years ago! The results don’t lie. Virginia beat Syracuse 75-56 in 2014. They beat Syracuse 59-47 last year. And they beat the Orange 73-65 earlier this season, but that game comes with an asterisk! Virginia destroyed the Syracuse zone to the tune of 57% shooting, while notching 18 assists on 25 made baskets. But the Orange were able to hang around in that game, covering the +10 spread by a bucket. How did they do it? A roll of the three point shooting dice in their favor. Syracuse nailed 13 triples in that game, shooting at a higher percentage from three point range than from two point range. Michael Gbinge nailed five three pointers. Malachi Richardson nailed six. On less than 48 hours rest, facing a Virginia defense that ranks among the best in college basketball -- a defense that has seen them already this year – I’m not expecting another ridiculously hot shooting effort from three point range today. It’s surely worth noting that Cavalier guards Malcolm Brogden and London Perrantes have played more than 100 minutes of floor time against Boeheim’s defense in their careers. Anthony Gill, Mike Tobey and Devon Hall also have extensive experience against this zone. And it’s surely worth noting that the Cavs have beaten Syracuse comfortably in each of the last two meetings despite the Orange defense forcing 32 turnovers. Even when the Orange play well on both ends, they’ve struggled against this team. It’s been an impressive run for Syracuse, but it’s likely to end with a resounding ‘thud’ today. Take Virginia. |
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03-26-16 | Villanova +2 v. Kansas | Top | 64-59 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Villanova (#521) My clients and I cashed an easy ‘right side’ winner supporting Villanova against Miami in the Sweet 16. Many of the key factors putting me on Jay Wright’s Wildcats are still very much in play today. Here’s an excerpt from my last write-up supporting ‘Nova, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: “The 2016 Villanova Wildcats are being de-valued for the sins of their predecessors. There’s no question that ‘Nova’s tournament history under Jay Wright has not been good. They were bounced out in the Round of 32 last year and the year before, both times as favorites. In 2013, the Wildcats didn’t make it out of the first round. In 2012, they didn’t reach the tourney. In 2011, they got bounced in the first round. In 2010, ‘Nova got bounced in the Round of 32, as the favorite. “All of this history is in the Wildcats rear view mirror. Head coach Jay Wright isn’t hopeless – he got his team to the Final Four in 2009, before losing to the eventual champs, North Carolina. And it’s surely worth noting that 2009 went into the Sweet 16 and throttled Duke; a 23 point win as underdogs. So, when Nova actually makes it out of the first weekend, there’s an actual track record of success. “But the markets don’t remember back that far. They see Villanova’s recent history of postseason failure, and they view this team with considerable skepticism. But this isn’t last year’s ‘Nova team, or any of the recent versions. The 2016 Wildcats are truly elite, yet they continue to be priced as pretenders, not contenders. “Make no mistake about it – this year’s version of Villanova is different. They’ve got a senior point guard making great decisions with the basketball in Ryan Arcidiacono, with only six turnovers in his last six games. They’ve got a great inside/outside duo in Kris Jenkins and Josh Hart, the team’s two leading scorers. They’ve got great continuity, with seven of Wright’s eight key rotation players having suited up for every single game this season, a healthy squad. And ‘Nova is playing defense at a truly elite level, completing stifling both Iowa and NC Ashville in their first two games of the tourney (even though Miami shot lights out against them on Thursday).” I had a couple of good contacts in Kansas City for the Big 12 tournament. Both contacts reported back the same thing to me – this Jayhawks team isn’t going to win a national title. Both guys categorized Bill Self’s squad as a good team, not a great one. And after winning and covering each of their first three tournament games, on the heels of their Big 12 regular season title and their Big 12 conference tourney championship, the Jayhawks are anything BUT an undervalued commodity right here! When one team is clearly undervalued and the other team is an overvalued commodity, it’s Big Ticket time in the Elite Eight! Big Ticket: Take Villanova. |
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03-24-16 | Miami (Fla) v. Villanova -4 | Top | 69-92 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
Take Villanova (#814) The 2016 Villanova Wildcats are being de-valued for the sins of their predecessors. There’s no question that ‘Nova’s tournament history under Jay Wright has not been good. They were bounced out in the Round of 32 last year and the year before, both times as favorites. In 2013, the Wildcats didn’t make it out of the first round. In 2012, they didn’t reach the tourney. In 2011, they got bounced in the first round. In 2010, ‘Nova got bounced in the Round of 32, as the favorite. All of this history is in the Wildcats rear view mirror. Head coach Jay Wright isn’t hopeless – he got his team to the Final Four in 2009, before losing to the eventual champs, North Carolina. And it’s surely worth noting that 2009 went into the Sweet 16 and throttled Duke; a 23 point win as underdogs. So, when Nova actually makes it out of the first weekend, there’s an actual track record of success. But the markets don’t remember back that far. They see Villanova’s recent history of postseason failure, and they view this team with considerable skepticism. But this isn’t last year’s ‘Nova team, or any of the recent versions. The 2016 Wildcats are truly elite, yet they continue to be priced as pretenders, not contenders. Make no mistake about it – this year’s version of Villanova is different. They’ve got a senior point guard making great decisions with the basketball in Ryan Arcidiacono, with only five turnovers in his last five games. They’ve got a great inside/outside duo in Kris Jenkins and Josh Hart, the team’s two leading scorers. They’ve got great continuity, with seven of Wright’s eight key rotation players having suited up for every single game this season, a healthy squad. And ‘Nova is playing defense at a truly elite level, completing stifling both Iowa and NC Ashville in their first two games of the tourney. Miami is only here because the committee screwed Wichita State, forcing the Shockers into an early start Saturday game on the heels of Tuesday and Thursday Night contests. Yet even facing an exhausted and ill-prepared Shockers squad, Miami certainly didn’t have an easy time of it. Senior point guard Angel Rodriguez bailed them out on a 9-11 shooting effort, hitting a bunch of contested shots with the clock winding down. But Rodriguez cannot be expected to do that twice in a row – he’s well under 40% from the floor in his collegiate career. Perhaps most importantly for Rodriguez is his inability to find open teammates against quality defenses; a point guard with more turnovers than assists three times in his last five games. As a team, Miami had 16 turnovers vs. only seven assists versus the Shockers . The Hurricanes shot 55%, while Wichita shot 33%, yet Miami was life and death to win the game in the closing minutes. That’s certainly not a good sign moving forward. One last note. Villanova is truly an elite free throw shooting team, connecting at a 77.7% clip for the full season, second best in the country. They’re quite capable of extending their lead to a spread covering margin in the final minute, should it come down to that. Frankly, I don’t think it will – the 2016 Wildcats are a team worth backing tonight. Take Villanova. |
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03-20-16 | Stephen F Austin v. Notre Dame -1 | Top | 75-76 | Push | 0 | 24 h 45 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Notre Dame (#716) Ken Pom’s advanced metric numbers show Stephen F Austin as the #25 team in the country while Notre Dame is at #40. Pom’s line has the Lumberjacks as the small chalk here, and the betting markets agree, taking the Notre Dame -2 opener and betting it down to -1. Advanced metric numbers – the quants – rule the college basketball betting marketplace. The end result is a handful of pointspreads that don’t make a whole lot of sense to this bettor; spreads like this one. I understand the importance of hard math and season long stats in the pointspread process. But I also firmly believe that the best way to beat the modern betting markets in 2016 is to focus on the areas where the quants don’t focus; namely the ‘eye test’. My edge comes from watching, not from number crunching. And when you watched Stephen F Austin rout West Virginia on Friday, you watched a Mountaineer team that simply didn’t match up well against the Lumberjacks pressure. Bob Huggins has recruited plenty of long, athletic defenders, but he does not have good ball handlers or perimeter shooters on his squad and it showed. The Mountaineers made just 16-52 from the floor while turning the ball over against the Lumberjacks pressure 22 times. Notre Dame is not going to do that. The Irish, unlike West Virginia, are an excellent offensive team. They’ve got a veteran point guard in junior stud Demetrius Jackson. Their offensive chemistry is tremendous in part because their top six players have combined to miss a grand total of one game all year, a squad that’s stayed healthy and developed an impressive rhythm, to the tune of 47.4% shooting for the season, 37% from three point range while committing fewer than ten turnovers per game. The Irish can handle the Lumberjacks pressure, plain and simple. And when Stephen F Austin isn’t forcing turnovers in bunches, they’re not primed to beat teams like Notre Dame. They failed in all three previous ‘step-up’ games this year before beating West Virginia, falling at Baylor, Northern Iowa and Arizona State SU and ATS, losing those three tests by a combined 59 points while forcing fewer than 13 turnovers per game in those contests. This is a ‘Big Ticket worthy’ price to lay with Notre Dame in a game I expect them to win by margin! Big Ticket: Take Notre Dame. |
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03-19-16 | Arkansas-Little Rock +6.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 61-78 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Arkansas Little Rock (#531) An underdog rallies from 13 points down in the final 3:30 against a powerful Big Dance favorite to send the game to OT. That dog hangs tough and ends up winning in double OT. The game is played in the mile high altitude of Denver. And then the betting markets do what the betting markets do – knee jerk against that feisty underdog in their next game, expecting them to be completely spent. But from all indications, Arkansas Little-Rock is anything but spent! Chris Beard’s squad isn’t one of these ‘glad to be here’ type of mid-majors. They are a 30-4 team with road wins against the likes of San Diego State and Tulsa in non-conference play; a team that has won 16 games on road or neutral courts this season. It’s surely worth noting that Iowa State has a sub .500 record away from home this year. And Little Rock has something that Iowa State does not – depth! When we talk about being gassed in a short turnaround spot, the knee jerk reaction is to fade the team coming off a double OT win. But Little Rock had nine players get double digit minutes in that game, and only three of them played more than 31 minutes of court time. Iowa State’s short bench forced first year head coach Steve Prohm to use three starters for 37+ minutes while a fourth played 32. The Cyclones bench produced a grand total of two points, six rebounds and one assist. In the Mile High air of Denver, I’m expecting Iowa State to be every bit as gassed as Arkansas Little Rock, if not more! And when it comes to getting key stops during crunch time, I trust the Trojans more than the Cyclones. Little Rock has held their foes under 40% shooting for the season; Iowa State isn’t even close. After running through a defense-less Iona squad in the first round, expect open looks for the Iowa State offense to be few and far between today in a game that has ‘down to the last possession’ written all over it! Big Ticket: Take Arkansas Little Rock. |
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03-18-16 | Green Bay v. Texas A&M -13 | Top | 65-92 | Win | 100 | 28 h 45 m | Show |
Take Texas A&M (#830) The season long stats for these two teams offensively look remarkably similar. Both teams shoot in the 44% range from the floor, the 35% range from three point land and the 66% range from the free throw line. Of course, Green Bay’s stats were compiled against a Horizon League that was loaded with offensive first, uptempo teams, not a conference loaded with quality defensive foes. Meanwhile, the Aggies faced off against numerous elite level defenders from the SEC. But there’s an enormous disparity between these two squads on the defensive end of the floor. The Phoenix are way behind the Aggies in every defensive stat there is; no comparison between these two squads whatsoever. Texas A&M can be trusted to get stops. Wisconsin Green Bay? Not so much! And when it comes to rebounding, there’s no comparison here either. The Phoenix were outrebounded by their Horizon League foes for the season. The Aggies outrebounded their foes by nearly five points per game. So, not only are the Aggies the only team on the floor capable of getting stops, they’re also likely to dominate the glass and limit the Phoenix second chance opportunities. The Aggies have been winning games by big margins away from home on a consistent basis; a testament to the defensive intensity that head coach Billy Kennedy preaches. They beat Texas, Georgia, Missouri, Auburn and LSU by double digit margins in neutral or hostile environments; a senior laden squad (four senior starters) with a proven track record of success in venues like this one. And the relative proximity to College Station with this game being played in Oklahoma City certainly isn’t a bad thing for the favorite. Green Bay won four games in four days at Joe Louis Arena to earn the Horizon’s automatic bid, but they caught a real break – the venue had awful sight lines, and the fact that they got two games under their belts at JLA before Valpo got their chance to play on that court even once was a major edge – the other ‘double bye’ team in the Horizon also got eliminated that day. Green Bay might hang around for a while, but when the Aggies go on one of their patented runs, the Phoenix will be hard pressed to play effectively from behind. Take Texas A&M. |
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03-17-16 | Wichita State +1.5 v. Arizona | Top | 65-55 | Win | 101 | 29 h 36 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Wichita State (#719) The betting markets view the short turnaround for Wichita State after beating Vanderbilt as a major negative; one of the primary reasons why the Shockers have been installed as underdogs in this ballgame. That’s just a classic knee-jerk reaction. In the Ron Baker/Fred Van Vleet era, the Shockers have faced an NCAA Tournament opponent on short rest four previous times. They went 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS in those ballgames. That includes a win over Kansas to go to the Sweet 16 last year, and outright upsets to reach the Sweet 16 and Final Four in 2013, knocking off Gonzaga and Ohio State as underdogs. The lone loss came by exactly two points against Kentucky when the Wildcats went to the Championship Game before falling short against UConn. That’s a stellar track record for head coach Greg Marshall in these situations, and the markets knee-jerk move offers us real value to support the superior, more battle tested team. The markets also react strongly to full season ‘aggregate’ numbers. And after winning 30, 35 and 30 games over the last three years, Wichita’s 24-8 record is being viewed as a major negative in the markets; a ‘clear indicator’ that this year’s Shockers squad is down a notch or two from previous versions. I’m not buying that argument one iota. The Shockers didn’t have their senior point guard (Van Vleet) for the Advocare Invitational over Thanksgiving and he was a shell of himself the game before he was finally sidelined (at Tulsa). Voila – there’s four of the Shockers eight losses, but because they happened in some ‘step-up’ games, the markets are viewing that as weakness. It’s a mistake. They also lost in OT at Seton Hall (no shame there) and suffered three more tough losses late in Missouri Valley Conference play – no shame there either. This team is a Cadillac being priced like a Chevy! Arizona is the team that’s legitimately down this year, not Wichita! Sean Miller’s team has been a consistently overvalued commodity in recent weeks, entering the Big Dance in the midst of a 2-7 ATS skid. These Wildcats just aren’t as mentally tough as recent versions, as clearly evidenced by their steady stream of losses away from home. Their defense isn’t even comparable to last year’s squad, no surprise after four starters left for the NBA last offseason, all underclassmen. Providence, USC, Cal, Colorado, Oregon and Utah all knocked off the Wildcats in road or neutral environments – basically, every NCAA tourney team they faced. Expect Wichita to do the same. Big Ticket: Take Wichita State. |
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03-16-16 | Mavs +9.5 v. Cavs | Top | 98-99 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
Take Dallas (#603) Mavs head coach Rick Carlisle tweaked his starting lineup on Monday, looking to end the Mavericks ugly five game losing streak. Carlisle went ‘small-ball, putting Zaza Pachulia on the bench, moving Dirk Nowitzki to center and putting Ray Felton in the starters role. The end result? A double digit win at red hot Charlotte, snapping their skid. Coach Carlisle following the victory: “The defense was great. We just had really good energy, focus, togetherness. We were playing relatively small, so we needed everybody to be very vigilant about being on the boards. That's our best chance to win and we did that tonight." Pachulia on being demoted to a backup role: “"We needed to change something and coach decided to go small. As a soldier, as a player, of course I had no problem with it, because we were losing and nobody was happy with the losing streak, including me…. I care about this team more than my personal stuff." Forward Chandler Parsons, talking about the Mavs intensity right now: "We're playing for our playoff life. We'll keep working and try to build from this." Cavs big man Tristan Thompson knows what’s coming tonight: “These teams are going to give you everything they've got. Dallas is in eighth right now, the Jazz are in ninth or whatever, they're all fighting each other to move up a spot so it's definitely kind of a playoff feel.” And it’s certainly worth noting that the Mavs have been good in this ‘bigger underdog’ role, 7-2 ATS when catching between +6 and +10.5 this season. While Dallas is fighting for their playoff lives, the Cavs are talking about getting starters ample rest before the playoffs begin. It’s their first game back off a successful 3-1 West Coast trip, and they head right back on the road for back-2-backs in Florida this weekend; a classic ‘flat spot’ for any team. Head coach Tyrone Lue talking about their sluggish effort in Utah to close out the road trip: “I thought just coming into it I felt we lost our legs, just try to keep motivating them, keep them going, keep them encouraged. I just thought we just couldn't get that pace up." The Mavs lost in overtime to the Cavs in the first meeting between these two teams, covering the +6 spread from wire-2-wire. It’s surely worth noting that Dallas beat Cleveland on this floor last year, and the year before and the year before that. They’re live dogs once again tonight. Take the Mavericks. |
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03-15-16 | New Mexico State v. St. Mary's -10 | Top | 56-58 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
Take St Mary’s (#564) I’m expecting a full-on ‘no show’ from the Aggies this evening, bad news when facing one of the most efficient offensive teams in the country on their home floor. New Mexico State went to the Big Dance in each of the last four seasons, but they lost on a buzzer beating three pointer in the WAC Final this year to Cal State Bakersfield, a truly crushing defeat. This team hasn’t played in the NIT since 2000, and they sure weren’t expecting to play in the NIT this year either. Their travel situation is brutal – they returned from the WAC Tourney in Las Vegas on Sunday afternoon, then flew out to the Bay Area on Monday. This is most assuredly not a veteran Aggies squad for Marvin Menzies, with no seniors and only one junior who gets regular playing time. That’s bad news for a very disappointed squad. Menzies: “Of course it (the short turnaround) will be challenging. But what are your options? You can’t rest an extra day, you can’t charter in the day off. You need to adhere to the guidelines that they put out there for us to use. And that puts in a position where we have to travel (Monday). We’ve never had to do it before. Not sure how taxing it will be on their bodies yet.” It’s surely worth noting how poorly New Mexico State has played when stepping up in class on the road against non-conference foes. The Aggies are just 1-14 SU over the last two years, including losses by 30 at Wichita State, by 15 at Baylor, by 18 at New Mexico and by 14 at Long Beach State this year alone; not exactly a confident team when stepping up in hostile environments. While the Aggies are primed for a ‘no-show’ St Mary’s was the best team in the country not to make the Big Dance in this bettor’s opinion, and they’re primed to take care of business on a floor where they went 18-1 SU, 10-5 ATS this year. An extraordinarily efficient offensive team (51% shooting for the season, 41% from three point range) is primed to exploit an opponent that can’t keep up with them on either end of the court. Take St Mary’s |
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03-14-16 | Blazers +8 v. Thunder | Top | 94-128 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Portland (#511) Oklahoma City is legitimately in free fall right now, a team that has lost their mojo completely since the All Star Break. Saturday’s loss at San Antonio was the 12th time this team has blown a fourth quarter lead, most in the NBA this season. Perhaps even more damning is their 4-8 record since the break. That’s not ATS, it’s SU, including SU losses to the likes of the T-wolves, Pelicans and Pacers, not just elite foes. A squad that is just 1-4 SU in their last five at home is not a team to be laying big points with tonight! Oklahoma City’s latest fourth quarter collapse – at San Antonio on Saturday – was a real crusher for a team undergoing a crisis of confidence right now. The Thunder played well defensively and San Antonio missed plenty of open looks; finishing just 4-24 from three point range (17%). The Spurs shot only 40% from the floor for the game, and were outrebounded by a double digit margin. It didn’t matter. Once the pressure ratcheted up in the fourth quarter, the Thunder fell apart on both ends of the court. Offensively, the Thunder rushed shots and weren’t patient with their ball movement, jacking up contested jumpers instead of getting to the free throw line. On defense, Billy Donovan was frankly outcoached (again); unable to counter the Spurs halftime adjustments. With Kevin Durant’s free agency looming, the offcourt distractions are every bit as problematic as the oncourt issues for OKC these days; a team trending in the wrong direction. The Thunder have been significant money losers for their supporters all season long, ranked among the bottom five teams in the NBA in profitability this year; right there with bottom feeders like Phoenix and Sacramento, and major disappointments like Chicago and New Orleans. They’ve been bad in every roll, but laying points has been particularly problematic, cashing at a 40% clip for the season as single digit favorites. While OKC is a clear ‘bet-against’ squad in this price range right now, this is absolutely a ‘step-up’ spot for the feisty road underdog. Portland has been a great bet catching points; 16-9 ATS as dogs from +4 to +9.5 this season. They’ve matched up very well in recent meetings with the Thunder: 4-2 SU dating back to last year, including an outright upset when these two teams last met in January. This is the opener of a four game road trip that includes visits to San Antonio and Dallas. Point guard Damian Lillard: “It’s going to be a tough trip. We’ve got to go out there and be ourselves.” Blazers head coach Terry Stotts magnified the importance of tonight’s game: "We're on the road a bunch this month and these games are that much more important…..going on the road, we know the importance of the game and this game in particular." With only four losses by more than eight points in their last 24 contests overall, I’m expecting a strong showing here from the road underdog; with a decent shot at the outright upset… Big Ticket: Take Portland. |
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03-13-16 | Kentucky v. Texas A&M +4 | Top | 82-77 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 49 m | Show |
Take Texas A&M (#884) Two key factors here. First, Kentucky has no depth, a ‘bet-against’ team at the tail end of a three games in three days tournament setting. The Wildcats get more than half of their points from two players – guards Jamal Murray and Tyler Ulis. And that duo has to be completely gassed. Murray played 39 minutes yesterday; averaging more than 35 minutes per game over his last 15 contests. Ulis went 39 minutes as well, the eighth time in nine games that he’s gone 35 minutes or more. After shooting 50% or higher in each of the first two games of this tournament, expect a significant drop-off offensively today for John Calipari’s squad. The second key factor after Kentucky’s lack of depth is A&M’s confidence level. Many (most?) teams are intimidated by the Wildcats size and athleticism But Texas A&M beat this team already this year; a wild OT thriller. They took ‘em to OT when these two squads faced off last year as well. This team is fresh, with nobody playing more than 25 minutes of game action in yesterday’s blowout over LSU. And make no mistake about it – an SEC Tournament Championship is a HUGE deal for this program and these kids from College Station, very much a statement game for the underdog. I expect them to play like it. Take the points just in case of end game shenanigans, but be sure to have at least a taste of the moneyline for this one! Take Texas A&M |
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03-11-16 | Oklahoma v. West Virginia -1 | Top | 67-69 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take West Virginia (#572) My clients and I cashed a VERY lucky winner with Iowa State last night, betting against the Sooners. And we got a double bonus with the Cyclones buzzer beating three pointer to cover the spread in defeat, because we get to bet against Lon Kruger’s squad again today, and once again, it’s worthy of a Big Ticket sized wager! Let me start with an excerpt from yesterday’s write-up, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities. “Lon Kruger is not a conference tournament guy, preferring to focus his energy on the Big Dance next weekend. The results don’t lie. Oklahoma is 2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS in the Big 12 Tourney over the last five years. My contact at the tournament in Kansas City made it very clear – the Sooner fans have not shown up in bunches. “The Sooners were ranked as the #1 team in the country earlier in the season. Perhaps at that point, they were legitimately playing at a Top 5 level, but this team is worn down. Oklahoma faced a brutal schedule, ranked #4 in the country in terms of toughness. They made two long trips to Hawaii in non-conference play, and the cumulative effects of those trips and their schedule has been on full display for weeks – this team is gassed. “The results do not lie. Oklahoma is 2-8 ATS in their last ten games. Kruger is essentially using a seven man rotation these days, which leaves nobody fresh for a tourney run in KC. And those tired legs have resulted in a significant offensive drop-off, both from the floor and from the free throw line in recent weeks. Plain and simple, these Sooners are paper tigers.” Oklahoma is here today for two reasons. First, Iowa State missed a TON of open looks last night. Second, Buddy Hield went nuts last night: 14-21 from the floor, 9-9 from the free throw line with nine rebounds, two blocks and a steal. If you watched him down the stretch of that game, however, Hield was completely gassed, air balling a three pointer, then turning the ball over late to allow that miracle pointspread cover. You don’t want a gassed point guard against West Virginia’s pressure. While Oklahoma has nothing to prove in KC this weekend, the Mountaineers do; a program and a head coach in Huggy Bear who are very motivated to make some real noise in this tournament. The Mountaineers gave the Sooners everything they could handle in a two point loss in Norman earlier in the season, but went ice cold from the floor in the rematch. Look for West Virginia’s pressure to wear Oklahoma down, in a game I expect them to win rather comfortably. Big Ticket: Take West Virginia. |
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03-10-16 | Iowa State +4.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 76-79 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Iowa State (#747) (Abbreviated write-ups during conference tourney week) Oklahoma doesn’t want to be here. Lon Kruger is not a conference tournament guy, preferring to focus his energy on the Big Dance next weekend. The results don’t lie. Oklahoma is 1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS in the Big 12 Tourney over the last four years. My contact at the tournament in Kansas City made it very clear – the Sooner fans have not shown up in bunches, while the venue is crawling with Iowa State supporters making the relatively short three hour drive to KC. The Sooners were ranked as the #1 team in the country earlier in the season. Perhaps at that point, they were legitimately playing at a Top 5 level, but this team is worn down. Oklahoma faced a brutal schedule, ranked #4 in the country in terms of toughness. They made two long trips to Hawaii in non-conference play, and the cumulative effects of those trips and their schedule has been on full display for weeks – this team is gassed. The results do not lie. Oklahoma is 2-7 ATS in their last nine games, favored in each and every one of those contests despite losing four of them in outright fashion. Kruger is essentially using a seven man rotation these days, which leaves nobody fresh for a tourney run in KC. And those tired legs have resulted in a significant offensive drop-off, both from the floor and from the free throw line in recent weeks. Plain and simple, these Sooners are paper tigers. Iowa State won this tourney last year. The Cyclones won this tourney the year before, taking the Big 12 Tournament very seriously. The venue is loaded with their supporters. Iowa State beat Oklahoma in one meeting this year and had a second half lead before a late Sooners rally in the second meeting, both intense, down to the final minute affairs. The Cyclones have been a great offensive team all year, hitting more than half of their shots for the season, as well as in their last five games. Look for that strong shooting to be a difference maker here in a game Iowa State is live to win in SU fashion – be sure to grab at least a taste of the moneyline here, while the points offer us a generous cushion if Iowa State comes up just short. Big Ticket: Take Iowa State. |
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03-07-16 | Pepperdine +7.5 v. St. Mary's | Top | 66-81 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
Take Pepperdine (#529) When we think of the elite teams in the West Coast Conference, we think of Gonzaga, BYU and St Mary’s. Pepperdine is (and has been) an afterthought for many years; not a program with any recent history of competing at the higher echelon in conference play. But that’s not the case here in 2016. The Waves have won 18 games this year. Most importantly for our purposes, they’ve stepped up in class remarkably well. Led by the inside/outside combo of Stacy Davis and Lamond Murray Jr, this squad has shown no intimidation against those WCC elites. The Waves got hammered at Gonzaga right before Christmas in their conference opener, losing by 26. Since that time, against the three WCC heavyweights, Pepperdine has gone 5-0 ATS including three outright upset victories! That success includes a pair of SU wins as +12.5 and +8.5 point underdogs against the same Gaels team they’ll see tonight. A strong perimeter defense (only 31.9% three point shooting allowed for the season) contained the Gaels three point shooters in both contests. Pepperdine pulled an upset over St Mary’s last year. The previous season, the Waves took the Gaels to OT before losing by a bucket; now 5-1 ATS in the last six regular season meetings between these two teams. Pepperdine is not a team to lay points with (just 4-9 ATS as conference chalk), but this team is absolutely a ‘bet-on’ squad as an underdog. The betting markets always seem reluctant to support an ‘inferior’ team that has already beaten their opponent twice this year. Of course that old adage about how tough it is to beat a team three times in one season is nothing but an old wives tale, not backed by any sort of hard statistical evidence. There’s absolutely no reason to think that Marty Wilson’s Waves aren’t primed to step up again. St Mary’s was the talk of the college basketball betting world when they opened the season on a remarkable 12-0 ATS run, a truly undervalued commodity through the first two months of the season. Since that time, however, the Gaels have been consistently overvalued – no surprise, given the type of attention that season opening streak got. The results don’t lie. St Mary’s is in the midst of a 4-10 ATS slide, just 3-9 ATS in their last dozen tries as chalk. Even if they manage to get their revenge on the Waves with a victory tonight, I’m not expecting it to come by any sort of margin. Take Pepperdine. |
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03-06-16 | Northern Iowa v. Evansville +1.5 | Top | 56-54 | Loss | -106 | 2 h 36 m | Show |
Take Evansville (#852) The Purple Aces and the Panthers played two intense, down to the wire regular season games. Northern Iowa came up on the right end of both of those decisions, winning by three at home and by two in Evansville just last week. That loss marked the only defeat that Evansville has suffered in the last month, and they’re primed to avenge it and cut down the nets at Arch Madness in St Louis today! Evansville has a trio of elite seniors in DJ Ballentine, Egidijus Mockevicius and Adam Wing, but that trio came out ice cold on Senior Night vs. the Panthers. The Purple Aces had only 12 points on the scoreboard at halftime, and faced an uphill battle thereafter. Head coach Marty Simmons: “I thought our guys prepared well. We knew it would be a grind-it-out game. They got 15 points off turnovers in the first half and that made a difference. I thought our guys played hard, but we made a lot of mistakes. We just have to be better, in tune and locked in.” Simmons continued: “I really felt like in the first half even though we shot a low percentage--other than the turnovers--we got some good looks. And we have got to keep taking those. … I believe in all these guys. They've done a great job." The Purple Aces are a senior laden team that returned all five starters from last year’s squad. They enjoyed an easy blowout yesterday, with only two players reaching 30 minutes of floor time. That stands in sharp contrast to Northern Iowa, coming off an OT thriller against Wichita in which Ben Jacobson’s seven man rotation was forced to play extended, intense minutes. Look for Evansville to be the fresher team today down the stretch, avoiding their third straight loss to a team they’re better than! Take Evansville. |
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03-05-16 | Louisville v. Virginia -5.5 | Top | 46-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Virginia (#612) Here’s the Rick Pitino quote entering what could very well be his last game coaching on the Louisville sidelines: “Right now, I’m fatigued mentally and emotionally….It’s a matter of is the University of Louisville better off without me?” Make no mistake about it – this Louisville team is gassed; emotionally and physically spent. They’ve been at their worst in hostile environments, just 3-7 ATS on the highway. And they’ve notched only one pointspread cover in five tries as an underdog this season, coming up short against Miami, Notre Dame and Duke in three ‘road dog’ tries over the last month. Louisville is at their best when they defensive pressure wreaks havoc on weaker foes, leading to easy fast break buckets and big blowout wins (6-2 ATS at -15 or higher). But when the Cardinals face a veteran team that plays at a slow pace and doesn’t turn the ball over, it’s their Kryptonite. That’s exactly what happened in the first meeting between these two teams, on Louisville’s home floor. Tony Bennett’s Cavs held the Cardinals to a season low 33% shooting and a season low 47 points. They held Louisville to 47 last year as well, also their low scoring game of the season. This year’s meeting was all but over by halftime….. This is Senior Night in Charlottesville for the likes of Malcolm Brogdon and Anthony Gill, their top two scorers and two of the five seniors that have been largely responsible for a complete turnaround for this program. They’re playing for a regular season ACC title and a #1 seed in the Big Dance. Brogdon:"I want to win a national championship. Those are the reasons why we play. At the same time, we're going to control what we can control (in the ACC race), and that's win out this season. We want to beat Louisville to end the season." I’m not expecting a fatigued Cardinals squad to offer max resistance tonight. Big Ticket: Take Virginia. |
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03-04-16 | Blazers +6 v. Raptors | Top | 115-117 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Portland (#827) My clients and I have already cashed a pair of winning bets supporting the Blazers on their current East Coast road trip. And there’s ample reason to expect Portland’s ‘under-the-radar’ ATS dominance to come to an end tonight. Here’s an excerpt from my last pro-Blazers write-up with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: “The betting markets and the mainstream media are still completely sleeping on this Blazers team. Portland is riding an under-the-radar 18-5 SU, 16-7 ATS hot streak dating back to mid-January. They’ve won SU and ATS on the road at Brooklyn, Washington, Houston, Memphis, Indiana, New York and Chicago during this span, the lone road loss coming in a real flat spot at Philly.” But the Blazers suffered another road loss in their last game, blown out in Boston, an ugly 23 point wipeout. Star point guard Damian Lillard following the defeat: “We just weren't good enough. We didn't do a lot of the things that we've been doing at the level that we've been doing them. You can't go out there and let a team at home compete harder than you and not execute the game plan coming in." Head coach Terry Stotts: “We got some unfortunate bounces where they ball's kind of bouncing around and it came up with them, (but) they kept the pressure on us all night at both ends." The Blazers have been pretty darn good off a loss, to put it mildly. After losing by 20 to the Warriors, they pulled the outright upset over OKC in their next game. After losing to Atlanta, they beat the Lakers by 18. Following a competitive seven point loss to Toronto – a game in which the Raptors shot 63% from three point range, they won SU and ATS as dogs in Houston. After that loss in Philly, they won SU as dogs in Washington. And after losing to the Rockets last week, the Blazers responded with a win and cover at Chicago in their next outing. That’s 5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS in their last five tries off a loss, an emerging trend worth riding here. The Raptors have no urgency here, in the midst of a long homestand. They’ve won five out of six since a loss at Chicago in their first game back from the All Star Break; the lone loss coming with All Star point guard Kyle Lowry sidelined on the second night of back-2-backs at Detroit. Toronto has struggled repeatedly against Portland, having lost 12 of the previous 13 meetings prior to that hot shooting night at the Rose Garden last month. Make no mistake about it – the Blazers are live to win the rematch in straight up fashion! Big Ticket: Take the Blazers. |
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03-03-16 | Drake +3 v. Missouri State | Top | 67-69 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
Take Drake (#557) Conference Tourney handicapping strategy #1: When two crappy teams meet, never lay points with the team that swept the season series. Yes, Missouri State won twice against Drake, including a 61-52 win on their home floor less than two weeks ago. In fact, the Bulldogs shot less than 40% from the floor in both losses to the Bears. Drake head coach Ray Giacoletti knows why: “They’re playing zone. And until you crack the zone and get that figured out, they’re not going to change. Last week in Springfield, they darn near every possession played zone, and we just did not attack it.” I’d expect a better gameplan (and better execution) against the Bears zone defense this evening. Drake’s win to close out the regular season against Loyola-Chicago is a difference maker too. A confidence-less team that had lost seven straight made big plays down the stretch and dominated the overtime session, entering Arch Madness with some much needed positive energy and momentum. Sophomore guard Reed Timmer: “This is definitely a feeling I’m never going to forget. We have been struggling this whole season and we work so hard in practice and we know we aren’t going to separate as a team. We stayed together….It’s something to hang your hat on at the end of the year.” Drake seven foot freshman center Dominik Olejniczak has been a godsend for Giacoletti in recent games, showing dramatic improvement from where he was back in November. He scored a career high 19 points with nine rebounds and six blocks in the win over the Ramblers. His quote: “I’m much more confident than I was at the beginning of the season. Coach believes in me and tells me to believe in myself. I didn’t really [believe in myself] in the beginning of the season but my level of confidence has gone up much more.” Missouri State head coach Paul Lusk: “Their big kid has been about as efficient as anyone in the league. He’s tough to deal with” Missouri State is a 12-18 team, not some juggernaut. They just lost their fourth player to a season ending injury when guard Jarred Dixon went down. The Bears don’t have the interior size or muscle to bang with Olejniczak in the paint. They are the weaker of the two teams at the free throw line. I’m not expecting their MVC Tourney opener to be a positive experience; just like last year when they were bounced in their opening game. Take Drake. |
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03-02-16 | Pistons +11.5 v. Spurs | Top | 81-97 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
Take Detroit (#717) Stan Van Gundy essentially threw his team under the bus when they faced New Orleans at home last Sunday. Anthony Davis ate Detroit alive in that contest, finishing with an NBA season high 59 points and 20 rebounds. Van Gundy made the conscious decision not to double team Davis, staying in his base defense throughout. Detroit lost that game, but the ‘personal responsibility’ theme clearly resonated with his squad. Since that defeat, the Pistons are 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS, including a pair of SU wins as road underdogs at Cleveland and Milwaukee. That streak began with Van Gundy inserting Tobias Harris into the starting lineup, joining Marcus Morris and Andre Drummond in the Pistons frontcourt. And the fact that the Pistons have covered these past four pointspreads by an average of more than a dozen points per game tells us clearly that Detroit is not being power rated correctly by the betting markets at this time. Here’s a quote from Van Gundy, talking about the Pistons improved play of late: “We’re playing the game unselfishly, we’re moving the ball, we’re really not riding one guy, everybody feels involved in the game. I also don’t think guys are pressing because they don’t necessarily need a play called for them, they know they’re going to end up with the ball.” The Pistons won SU at San Antonio last year and they covered the spread in defeat on their previous visit. And I’m not expecting an A+ level effort out of the home favorite tonight; their first home game since February 6th following their annual ‘Rodeo Road Trip’. They closed out their trip with five straight wins and they’ve been off since Saturday; not a ideal situation for a team that has a grand total of ONE pointspread cover all year off three or more days of rest. The Spurs certainly deserve to be substantial home favorites tonight, but I expect them to be in a real battle to win this one by any type of significant margin. Take the Pistons. |
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03-01-16 | Virginia v. Clemson +5 | Top | 64-57 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
Take Clemson (#514) Clemson is 13-3 at ‘The Well’ this season, including a 7-1 SU mark in SEC play while their ‘normal’ home, Littlejohn Coliseum, is being renovated. But the Tigers have played themselves off the bubble, coming off back-2-back heartbreaking road losses at Georgia Tech and NC State by a combined five points. Clemson senior point guard Jordan Roper, talking about what he expects on senior night: “We’ve shown that we can play with anybody and get hot and play very high-level basketball, and that’s what we plan to do. We have no other choice if we want to play in the NCAA Tournament, and that has been our goal since the beginning of the summer….. We play really well in Greenville. We’ve become comfortable playing there.” And Clemson comes into their home finale as rested and ready as they’ve been in months, in sharp contrast to the Virginia team they’ll face tonight. The Tigers have had a full week off to rest and recuperate since that loss to the Yellow Jackets; their first real time off since Christmas. Head coach Brad Brownell: “It was good to have a little time away – it’s a long year. There’s still a lot to play for.” Clemson certainly gave Virginia everything the Cavs could handle in the first meeting between these two teams, a wire-2-wire pointspread cover for the Tigers. Virginia shot 54% from the floor, 57% from three point range, won the rebounding battle by 12 and were STILL life and death just to win the game in the final minutes, escaping with a non-covering seven point win. It’s hard to picture Virginia enjoying that type of shooting effort here. The Cavs are coming off their biggest win of the season against North Carolina. Virginia didn’t commit a single turnover in the last seven minutes of the game. They hit 18-21 free throws, including numerous key makes down the stretch, a truly well played contest throughout. I’m not counting on the Cavs to match that level of effort here, especially when we consider their 3-5 SU mark on the highway. And they’ve been particularly bad in the road favorite’s role, a dismal 0-6 ATS when laying more than two points on the highway this year. That’s an under-the-radar angle worth betting on here! Take Clemson. |
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02-28-16 | Washington v. Oregon -9.5 | Top | 73-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
Take Oregon (#850) Washington has fought the good fight in PAC-12 play this year. The very young Huskies – with eight freshmen on the roster (including seven of their top eight leading scorers) , and only one senior—have played in one tight game after the next. In fact, 11 of their first 16 PAC-12 games have been extremely tight, margins of two points or less within the final minute of play. But the cumulative effect of the Huskies latest series of losses has been nothing short of devastating for this team’s psyche. First, they missed a potential game winner in the closing seconds after fighting back from a double digit deficit at Colorado. At home against Cal, it was a similar story – a furious comeback to cut the lead to one in the closing seconds, but not enough to get over the hump. But the Huskies loss to Oregon State on Thursday trumped both of those defeats. In a true ‘must win’ game between two legitimate ‘bubble’ teams, the Huskies scratched and clawed their way to a six point lead with just over a minute to play. But a turnover, a pair of missed free throws and a three pointer (following an uncalled travel) at the buzzer left the Huskies truly devastated in a one point loss. Coach Romar, after the game: “He travelled. But they didn’t call it. We gave ourselves every opportunity to win the game, but we didn’t get it done.” More Romar: “We made shots tonight. They beat us, they pounded us on the backboard, but we made shots. They shot 29 percent in the second half. We did a lot of things, again, that would allow you to win a ballgame. But we don’t have anything to show for it.” It’s worth noting that Oregon State missed 11 of 24 second half free throws, yet still won the game. So, we’ve got a very young Washington team coming off a bubble bursting brutal loss. The Huskies lost despite shooting 19-29 from two point range and 11-24 from three point range; a combined 57% from the floor. They lost despite their opponent missing free throw after free throw, keeping Washington in the game. They lost despite having a lead in the final minute once again. Their final home game of the season comes next; then the PAC-12 tournament, with a new chance to steal a Big Dance bid. That makes this the mother of all flat spots for the road underdog. I’m not expecting anything resembling Washington’s ‘A” game today, especially with Romar still griping about the refs two days after the loss. Oregon is 17-0 at home this year, and they’ve got a one game lead with tiebreaker edges against the two teams right behind them in the PAC-12 heading into their home finale tonight. The Ducks have been winning comfortably at home all year – six of their last seven PAC-12 wins in Eugene have come by double digit margins. With Coach Dana Altman still harping on his squad to play better – he ripped them for their three point defense following a 14 point win over Oregon State earlier in the week – I’m expecting the Ducks to take care of business against a Huskies team primed for a flat effort. Take Oregon. |
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02-27-16 | North Carolina v. Virginia -3.5 | Top | 74-79 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
Take Virginia (#520) The results don’t lie. When North Carolina plays at a slow pace, they don’t win many games or cover many pointspreads. This year, in games where neither the Tar heels nor their opponents score more than 75 points, North Carolina is 0-6 ATS. Over the last three years, they are 7-23 ATS when neither team breaks 75. The Tar Heels can run and gun with anybody, but when they are forced to play a halfcourt game, they consistently struggle. Virginia is the single slowest paced team in college hoops according to Kenpom’s numbers. The Cavs don’t pound the offensive glass. Instead, they get back in transition defense, bad news for Roy Williams and company. Tar Heels point guard Marcus Paige: “I don’t think we’re going to be able to beat them down the court for a lot of the game.” Reports indicate that Coach Williams is going to try to take a page out of Duke’s playbook when the Blue Devils beat the Cavs 63-62 last week on the heels of a win right here in Charlottesville last year. The Blue Devils created fast break opportunities simply by shooting long range jumpers very early in the shot clock, before the Cavs defense was fully set. That strategy worked for a team like Duke that is a good three point shooting team. North Carolina, on the other hand, is a terrible three point shooting team: 31% for the season, only 27% from three point range. If the Tar Heels really do take a page out of Duke’s playbook, they’ll be playing into their own biggest weakness! Virginia beat North Carolina by 15 the last time the Tar Heels came to visit. They beat North Carolina by 11 at the Dean Dome in Chapel Hill in their only regular season meeting last year. The Tar Heels got their revenge with a win over Virginia in the ACC Tournament, but it took 55% shooting; 50% from three point range, to beat Virginia by four. I’m not expecting anything resembling those type of shooting percentages from North Carolina tonight! Take Virginia. |
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02-26-16 | Wizards -8.5 v. 76ers | Top | 103-94 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
Take Washington (#841) Philly opened the season as the bottom feeder that they are, but the Sixers got a real boost right after Christmas when they acquired point guard Ish Smith from New Orleans. Smith had an immediate impact in Philadelphia, as the Sixers went 9-4 ATS in his first 13 games, pulling outright upsets over Portland, Orlando, Minnesota, Sacramento and Phoenix during that span. The Sixers had another solid run right before the All Star Break, cashing each of their last four games prior to the layoff. What happens when a true bottom feeder starts to play better basketball? Simple – teams start to take them a little bit more seriously, instead of looking past them completely. And that’s exactly what’s happened to Philadelphia in their four games since the All Star Break. They got a cheap cover at New Orleans in their first game back, but have been outclassed badly in three straight games against opponents who didn’t take them for granted. Here’s Smith’s quote following an ugly blowout loss to the Pistons in their last game:"We had that good stretch before the All-Star break, and it earned us some respect. The problem is that we've lost what we had, so teams are taking us seriously and beating the crap out of us. That's what the Pistons did tonight." Philly has precious little homecourt edge, without any discernable ‘home court advantage’ this year or in recent seasons. They’re facing a Wizards team that beat them by a dozen in the lone previous meeting this year, on the heels of 29, 13 and 35 point wins against them last year. And make no mistake about it – Washington is coming to play tonight! The Wizards are coming off a bad loss in Chicago against a Bulls team that was playing without Derrick Rose. They lost by 20 in Miami last week, playing a Heat team without Chris Bosh or Dwayne Wade. Head coach Randy Wittman: "It's happened to us numerous times (looking past opposing teams). If you don't learn from it, then that's our fault.” It’s surely worth noting that the Wizards have also gotten healthier and deeper with the trade deadline addition of Markieff Morriss (he’ll be playing in his hometown tonight) and the return from injury of Alan Anderson. That gives Wittman two versatile forwards who play D and can hit shots at his disposal. Look for Washington to pull away and win comfortably here! Take the Wizards. |
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02-25-16 | UCLA v. California -6.5 | Top | 63-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
Take California (#760) Cal opened the season ranked in the Top 15, but the Bears went through some growing pains; losing a pair of early season matchups as favorites, then opening up the PAC-12 campaign with losses in each of their first five road games. They haven’t been ranked since November….but they should be, a vastly under-rated team at this stage of the campaign. The Bears are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five ballgames, including a pair of confidence inspiring road victories at the Washington schools last weekend. And this home court has been as strong as any in the PAC-12, with Cuonzo Martin’s team going 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS in conference home games. Junior guard Jabari Byrd: “I think we’re in a great spot. Five wins in a row is great for us. It puts us in position to win the conference. The guys are really confident right now. We need to keep the momentum going these next few games.” Senior point guard Tyrone Wallace: “At this point in the season, we’re starting to play some of our best basketball. Everybody’s contributing.” But the real reason that Cal has gotten so much better in recent weeks is that their dynamic frosh duo of Ivan Rabb and Jaylen Brown have been nothing short of outstanding, combining for more than 27 points and nearly 14 rebounds per game, even better here in February. Tyrone Wallace: “We have a lot of different guys stepping up playing larger roles for the team. Guys’ confidence is through the roof….We have to continue that and we’ll be fine.” Cal matches up well with UCLA, a team that relies on perimeter shooting for the majority of their offense. The Bears have 6-5 Wallace and 6-6 Byrd in the backcourt, a tough matchup for UCLA’s second leading scorer 6-3 Bryce Alford and 6-1 backcourt mate Aaron Holiday. Bruins head coach Steve Alford, already making excuses: “They really just tee it up one-on-one and say, ‘You’re not gonna beat us one-on-one. That’s a great thing to have, because you don’t see them having to help a lot. And because they don’t help a lot, they don’t give up a lot of open looks. They make open looks hard on you.” Cal missed nine free throws in the final 1:32 at Washington last week, nearly blowing the game in the process. On a floor where they are 16-0 this season, I’m expecting the Bears to have learned their lesson in terms of late game closeouts and concentration. The Bears are one of only 15 teams in the country holding foes under 39% shooting this year. Their defense on two pointers is truly impressive, allowing only 40.4% makes. UCLA has been blasted in road losses at USC and Oregon in recent weeks, struggling to step up in class away from home as part of their 4-8 ATS run on the highway. I’m not expecting their trip up to Berkeley tonight to be a particularly pleasant experience either! Take Cal. |
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02-23-16 | Alabama +13.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 53-78 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
Take Alabama (#723) There’s a lot to like about Avery Johnson’s first year as the head coach for the Crimson Tide. Johnson has NBA championship rings on his fingers from his days as a player for San Antonio and a Western Conference title/ Finals appearance as a coach for Dallas. Those rings have clearly had an impact on his team; a team that has bought into Johnson’s message from Day 1 this year. One message Johnson has been preaching is about hanging tough under adversity – exactly what road underdogs need to do to be successful pointspread teams. They won SU as road underdogs in their last try at LSU – their third straight road win, cashing as an eight point dog. They won SU at Florida, winning SU as a nine point dog. ‘Bama beat Wichita State, Notre Dame and Clemson away from home in non-conference play , all as underdogs of +7 or higher. This team is legitimately tough. They’ve gone 11-3 ATS as an underdog in their last 14 tries. And their slow pace of play – the slowest in the SEC -- makes it difficult to build big margins against them. Kentucky plays very slow as well, ranked #13 out of 14 SEC teams in offensive tempo. They’re going to be forced into halfcourt sets all game here, thanks to Alabama’s lack of turnovers and strong transition defense. It’s not like John Calipari has a roster capable of pushing pace these days anyway, playing without big men Alex Poythress and Derek Willis, two key upperclassmen on a team loaded with freshmen. Those injuries have left the Wildcats with a VERY limited rotation, a big part of their OT loss at Texas A&M over the weekend. How thin is Calapari’s rotation right now? Tyler Ulis, Isaiah Briscoe and Jamal Murray all played more than 40 floor minutes on Saturday. This is Kentucky’s third game in six days; a truly tough scheduling stretch for a team with no depth. I’m expecting a legitimate battle here, not a one-sided affair. Take Alabama. |
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02-21-16 | Utah v. USC -1.5 | Top | 80-69 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
Take USC (#850) Since joining the PAC-12 for the 2011-2012 college hoops season, Utah has gone on 19 two game road trips in conference action. The Utes have gotten swept on 11 of those trips. They’ve split on seven of those trips. And the Utes have gone 2-0 SU exactly once. Utah gutted out a tough, two point win at UCLA on Thursday Night. When this team is coming off a road win and playing on the road again in their next game, they’ve been consistent underachievers; the type of squad that tends to get a tad bit ‘fat and happy’ following a satisfying road victory. And make no mistake about it – USC is coming to play today, primed to bring their ‘A” game. Utah thoroughly embarrassed this team on this floor last year, a 67-39 beatdown that marked one of the low points of a very disappointing campaign for the Trojans. That home loss to Utah came on the heels of a 24 point road loss in Salt Lake City to open their PAC-12 season. The Trojans starting backcourt mates Julian Jacobs and Jordan McLaughlin are one of only two pairs of guards in the country to have 125+ assists each at this stage of the campaign. They are also a big part of the reason why USC ranks #1 in the conference at defending the three point line, holding foes to 31% shooting from downtown. That duo was the difference as USC snapped a two game skid with a come-from-behind win over Colorado on Wednesday, combining for 42 of the Trojans 79 points. Head coach Andy Enfield: They controlled the game down the stretch.” But USC knows that they can’t afford to get off to another slow start here. McLaughlin: “We keep getting off to slow starts which we can’t do against the tough teams in the PAC-12.” The Trojans have been remarkably strong on this floor all year: 11-3-1 ATS at the Galen Center. It’s surely worth noting that all three ATS losses came by a bucket or less, and that the Trojans are 15-0 SU at home this year. That’s a trend worth riding in this deflated pointspread range! Take USC. |
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02-20-16 | Ole Miss -6 v. Auburn | Top | 69-59 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
Take Mississippi (#587) I lost a bet earlier in the week fading Auburn, when the Tigers faced off against Arkansas. To say it was a good shooting night for Bruce Pearl’s squad is something of an understatement. Auburn shot 61% from the floor. They hit 15 of 23 three point shots, with Bryce Brown draining nine trifectas and TJ Lang hitting five of six from downtown. Despite that type of shooting – very, very rare for a team that has shot 40% from the floor this year and under 35% from the floor in their last five games, playing without a point guard – Auburn barely won the game. The Tigers did what they do – getting torched on the offensive glass, committing turnovers in bunches and not playing all that much defense. A team that has only seven healthy regular rotation players, with a senior power forward forced to man the point for extended stretches is not a likely candidate to come up with two ‘off the charts’ efforts in a row. In fact, following Auburn’s previous win, back in mid- January, the Tigers lost by 32 to Florida in their next contest, a complete no-show on both ends of the court. Ole Miss had been playing much better basketball in recent weeks, winning three out of four, the lone loss coming in competitive, spread covering fashion at Florida. But the Rebels came up with a real clunker earlier in the week at Arkansas, playing their worst second half in week. SEC leading scorer Steph Moody is just 14-53 from the floor in his last three games, primed to get back on track and lead his team to victory against this letdown prone, bottom feeder. The Rebels beat Auburn by 17 at home last month and another comfortable margin of victory this afternoon would be no surprise for this bettor! Take Ole Miss. |
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02-19-16 | 76ers +8.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
Take Philadelphia (#847) New Orleans was a major disappointment over the first half the campaign, and there’s little reason to expect the Pelicans to suddenly excel post-break, especially in a role that they’ve been dismal in all year – as favorites. The numbers do not lie. Alvin Gentry’s quad has been asked to lay -3 or higher on 12 different occasions this season. They’re 3-9 ATS in those dozen tries, consistently failing in this role. In fact, New Orleans hasn’t covered a single pointspread all year when laying 8 points or higher, like they are tonight. A team that had multiple veteran players actively being shopped at the trading deadline -- none of whom were actually dealt – is not a good candidate to come out of the break clicking on all cylinders on either end of the court. Meanwhile, the situation in Philadelphia continues to improve; a squad that went 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games before the All Star Break. These longtime bottom feeders are certainly talking the talk, post-break. Head coach Brett Brown: “It's not something that we want to talk about, 'In the summer we can do this, in the offseason we can do that.' We want to do it now." Brown led the team in a vigorous two hour practice yesterday: “Get up and down the floor. Get some blood flowing again. You can't deliver a talk that I spoke to them about pre-practice and not have a practice like we had. It was high-intensity, it was up and down, it was great pressure on defense with a flavor of, 'Let's get better, let's get in better condition, and how do we execute to close out fourth periods better than we have?'" Point guard Ish Smith, a major contributor to Philly’s vastly improved play since he arrived in Philadelphia: “The next step for us is closing out those games, executing down the stretch, winning those games and kind of building some momentum to next year. I think that's the biggest thing for us, just closing out games." Philly is expected to have their frontcourt duo of the future, Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor, both on the floor this evening after a bout of knee tendinitis sidelined Noel before the break. Okafor: "It was a good rest. "I'm ready to start the second half of the season. I'm excited about that, and I'm ready to get going." I’m not seeing many quotes like these from the New Orleans side…..Take the 76ers. |
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