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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-31-23 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks -105 | Top | 11-7 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
World Series Game of the Year. My selection is on Arizona over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Rangers gained the upper hand in this series last night as they jumped all over Diamondbacks rookie starter Brandon Pfaadt early and cruised to a 3-1 victory. I look for Arizona to answer back on Tuesday in what sets up as a battle of the bullpens. Andrew Heaney will get the start for the visiting Rangers but isn't likely to be given a long leash. He has pitched just 2 1/3 innings in the last two rounds of the playoffs, allowing six of the 13 batters he has faced to reach base. On the season, Heaney owns a very pedestrian 4.66 FIP and 1.38 WHIP. Reliever Joe Mantiply will counter for Arizona. Again, we can expect to see only an inning or so from the left-hander. I liked the way the D'Backs managed their bullpen in last night's defeat as they kept key arms like Ryan Thompson, Kevin Ginkel and closer Paul Sewald fresh for Game 4 on Tuesday. As expected in a tight game playing with the lead, the Rangers used both setup man Aroldis Chapman and closer Jose Leclerc. The Rangers already accomplished their goal of at least getting this series back to Texas for a Game 6. Now the pressure is squarely on Arizona as it can ill afford to go down 3-1 against a team as good as Texas. The D'Backs have proven resilient throughout these playoffs and I look for them to answer the bell once again on Tuesday. Take Arizona (10*). |
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10-30-23 | Rangers -104 v. Diamondbacks | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Arizona at 8:05 pm et on Monday. It wasn't all that surprising to see the Diamondbacks rebound following their disheartening loss in Game 1 of this series. After all, the Snakes have been incredibly resilient throughout these playoffs and didn't want to go down the path of needing to rally from an 0-2 series deficit again the way they did last round. Here, I think it's advantage Rangers as the series shifts to Arizona for Game 3. Veteran Max Scherzer hasn't pitched particularly well in his two playoff starts this year, but he was certainly 'good enough' in the fifth and deciding game against the Astros last round as Texas rolled to an 11-4 victory. Scherzer has absolutely manhandled the current Diamondbacks roster, holding them to a collective 16-for-103 (.155) with 39 strikeouts and eight walks. Meanwhile, D'Backs rookie Brandon Pfaadt has impressed in his four playoff starts but he faces a tall task here as the current Rangers roster torched the right-hander in a regular season matchup, hitting a combined 9-for-19 (.474) with four home runs and only three strikeouts. Take Texas (8*). |
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10-24-23 | Diamondbacks +158 v. Phillies | 4-2 | Win | 158 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The pressure rests squarely on the shoulders of the Phillies in Game 7 on Tuesday after they squandered an opportunity to close out this series at home yesterday. Most expected the Diamondbacks to go off quietly into that good night after dropping Games 1 and 2 in this series. Instead, Arizona answered back with consecutive wins of its own at home before dropping Game 5. Now this youthful team has all the confidence in the world as it looks to stun Philadelphia in front of its home faithful on Tuesday. Rookie Brandon Pfaadt will take the ball for the D'Backs. He displayed some nerves in his first career playoff start in Milwaukee but that seems like ages ago now as he's bounced back by silencing both the Dodgers and these same Phillies in his last two outings. In those two starts, Pfaadt yielded just four hits and no walks while striking out 11 in 10 shutout innings. Current Phillies hitters are a combined 2-for-18 off of the rookie right-hander. Ranger Suarez will counter for Philadelphia. Like Pfaadt, he's been sharp over his last two starts, three if you include a brief outing against the Braves in the NLDS. I don't believe he has the same dominant stuff or extra gear to reach back to compared to Pfaadt, however. What you see is what you get with the veteran left-hander. In 125 innings of work this season he owns a rather pedestrian 3.90 FIP and 1.42 WHIP. If we've learned one thing in these playoffs it's to expect the unexpected and what could be more unexpected than a Rangers-Diamondbacks World Series matchup? Take Arizona (8*). |
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10-23-23 | Rangers +114 v. Astros | Top | 11-4 | Win | 114 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
ALCS Game of the Year. My selection is on Texas over Houston at 8:05 pm et on Monday. Bettors will likely be quick to back the Astros to bounce back following last night's blown opportunity to close out this series at home, especially given we're going to see the same pitching matchup from Game 3 - a contest Houston led virtually wire-to-wire in an 8-5 victory. I like Rangers veteran and future Hall-of-Famer Max Scherzer's chances of bouncing back here, however, after he pitched for the first time in over a month in Game 3. Scherzer said after the game that he had more in the tank but agreed with manager Bruce Bochy's decision to lift him from the game after four innings with the Rangers trailing 5-0. While Mad Max got off to a shaky start in that contest, he did settle down and strike out the final two batters he faced and threw 42-of-63 pitches for strikes. We know the moment isn't too big for Scherzer as he's been in similar situations before. Also note that his teams have gone a perfect 6-0 in his last six starts here at Minute Maid Park, including 2-0 in postseason play (as a member of the Nationals in 2019). Cristian Javier will counter for Houston. He's posted tremendous postseason stats during his career and has successfully bounced back in these playoffs following a rough regular season. With that being said, I don't think there's any intimidation factor at play here as the Rangers will be seeing Javier for the eighth time since the start of last season. He didn't last beyond the sixth inning in any of those previous seven outings against Texas. In fact, he's failed to make it through the sixth inning in any of his last four starts against the Rangers. Texas is a perfect 7-0 on the road in these playoffs but it will be all for not if it can't secure a Game 7 victory on Monday night. I expect the Rangers to rise to the occasion once again. Take Texas (10*). |
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10-20-23 | Phillies -124 v. Diamondbacks | 5-6 | Loss | -124 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Arizona at 8:05 pm et on Friday. The Phillies offense dried up in last night's 2-1 defeat as they let the Diamondbacks back into the series. I expect Arizona's success to be short-lived, however, as it looks to even the series at two games apiece on Friday. Cristopher Sanchez will take the ball for the Phillies in Game 4. I wouldn't put too much stock into his presence at the start of this game as he's likely to be on a short leash having not pitched since September 30th and not started a game since September 27th. He's held his own on the road this season, holding opposing batters to a .207 average while giving up only five extra-base hits in 92 plate appearances. Joe Mantiply will get the start for the D'Backs in what amounts to a bullpen game. I think there's a good chance the Phillies jump all over the left-hander, noting their current hitters are a combined 14-for-31 including six extra-base hits against him. Interestingly, Bryce Harper is 0-for-4 against Mantiply but I'd rather bet on Harper noting he's been one of the Phillies hottest hitters in these playoffs, batting .357 with four home runs. He was 0-for-2 last night. The last time he went hitless in a playoff game (and only previous time he did so this October) he responded by going 2-for-2 in Game 1 of the NLDS in Atlanta, helping Philadelphia to a 3-0 victory. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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10-19-23 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks +117 | 1-2 | Win | 117 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Philadelphia at 5:05 pm et on Thursday. For the Phillies, picking up two more wins and moving on to the World Series for a second straight year seems like only a formality at this point. With that being said, I don't think the Diamondbacks will go away quietly as the series shifts to Arizona for Game 3 on Thursday afternoon. Ranger Suarez will get the start for Philadelphia. He pitched well in two NLDS starts against Atlanta although not much was asked of him as he faced just 13 and 18 batters in those two contests. The D'Backs have had some success against the left-hander, going a combined 20-for-70 (.270) against him with only 15 strikeouts and 11 walks. Brandon Pfaadt will counter for Arizona. The rookie struggled in his playoff debut against the Brewers (in Milwaukee) but rebounded in his next outing against the Dodgers (at home), throwing 30-of-42 pitches for strikes and allowing just two hits over 4 1/3 shutout innings. Note that the Phillies are just 6-12 this season after allowing four runs or less in four consecutive games, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 1.7 runs in that situation. Take Arizona (8*). |
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10-18-23 | Astros +121 v. Rangers | 8-5 | Win | 121 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'm not entirely sure why the Rangers are messing with their starting rotation and inserting Max Scherzer on Wednesday when they've clearly got a good thing going in that regard. The Rangers are saying all the right things and we know Scherzer is the ultimate competitor so he wants to be out there but he's only thrown a 65 or 70-pitch bullpen session ahead of this critical start and I won't be surprised if the Astros jump all over him, just as they did back on September 6th, right here in Texas (Houston scored seven earned runs off of Scherzer in just three innings). Cristian Javier will get the call for the Astros. He improved on his terrific career postseason numbers with a masterful outing against the Twins in the ALDS. Houston has to feel as if it has the right guy on the hill to get it back into this series noting that it has gone 7-3 in Javier's 10 previous starts against Texas. Current Rangers hitters are just 30-for-123 (.244) off of Javier with only 12 extra-base hits. Take Houston (8*). |
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10-17-23 | Diamondbacks +149 v. Phillies | Top | 0-10 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
NLCS Game of the Year. My selection is on Arizona over Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Phillies took the opener of this series by a 5-3 score last night, notching their fifth consecutive victory at home in these playoffs. I look for that streak to come to an end on Tuesday, however, as the Diamondbacks hand the ball to Merrill Kelly against Aaron Nola of the Phillies. Kelly should have a live arm having not pitched since October 7th, when he helped the D'Backs to an 11-2 rout of the Dodgers in Los Angeles. Since getting rocked for seven earned runs against the Mets on September 14th, Kelly has allowed just four earned runs in four starts, covering a span of 25 innings of work. Note that Arizona has won 10 of Kelly's 16 road starts this season. Aaron Nola recorded nine strikeouts against Atlanta last time out and while most bettors will look at that as a positive, high strikeout totals have been problematic for Nola in his next start this season. After striking out nine or more batters, Nola has gone on to allow 5, 6, 0, 4 and 7 earned runs in his next outing with the Phillies going 0-5 in those contests. The D'Backs should be happy to be facing Nola noting that he owns a 7.67 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in five career starts against them. While Arizona has now dropped four straight meetings with the Phillies, that actually sets up favorably here as it has gone 7-1 when seeking quadruple-revenge against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 2.0 runs on average in that situation. Take Arizona (10*). |
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10-16-23 | Rangers v. Astros -118 | 5-4 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Texas at 4:35 pm et on Monday. The Rangers took the opener of this series last night, improving to an incredible 6-0 in the postseason. I look for the Astros to answer back on Monday as they send Framber Valdez to the hill against Nathan Eovaldi of the Rangers. It's worth noting that Texas hasn't won consecutive games against Houston since back in May of 2021. Eovaldi has struggled mightily against current Astros hitters, allowing 45 hits in 145 at-bats (.310). That includes a whopping 22 extra-base hits, not to mention a modest 27:16 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Framber Valdez hasn't pitched particularly well lately but I like his chances of rising to the occasion in this critical matchup. He owns a 3.64 ERA and 1.10 WHIP at home this season and will be happy to be pitching in the daytime, having logged a sparkling 1.32 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in five afternoon starts this year. While the Rangers were able to close out last night's game, they've blown 16 saves while converting only 13 on the road this season. Take Houston (8*). |
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10-11-23 | Dodgers -140 v. Diamondbacks | 2-4 | Loss | -140 | 25 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Arizona at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Dodgers couldn't get their offense going at all in Games 1 and 2 in Los Angeles. With this game projected to be much higher-scoring, I look for L.A. to find its way back into the series with a victory. Lance Lynn will be tasked with stopping the bleeding for the Dodgers. I believe he's the right guy on the mound in this moment, noting that he has held current Diamondbacks hitters to a combined 10-for-50 at the plate. It's a much different story for D'Backs rookie starter Brandon Pfaadt. He was shaky in his postseason debut in Milwaukee. Now he goes up against a Dodgers club that has clocked him to the tune of 16-for-42 (.381) at the dish with eight extra-base hits. Pfaadt won't have a very long leash in this game. Note that Los Angeles is 18-4 when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.8 runs in that situation. Arizona checks in 15-24 when coming off a victory by two runs or less this season, outscored by 1.1 runs on average in that spot. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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10-09-23 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -149 | 4-2 | Loss | -149 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Arizona at 9:05 pm et on Monday. The Diamondbacks are the Cinderella story of this year’s playoffs but I do expect their three-game winning streak to come to an end on Monday. Zac Gallen will take the ball for Arizona. While he’s had another terrific season he’s up against a Dodgers lineup that is familiar with his stuff. A whopping seven different Los Angeles hitters have homered off of Gallen. Rookie Bobby Miller will counter for the Dodgers. I like the fact that he gets to make his playoff debut at home. A lot is expected of the Dodgers young pitchers with the likes of Julio Urias and Tony Gonsolin sidelined and I look for Miller to rise to the occasion with L.A. coming off a loss in Game 1. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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10-09-23 | Phillies v. Braves -149 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Monday. The Braves dropped the opener of this series in shutout fashion on Saturday but that sets them up well to rebound in Game 2 in Atlanta on Monday. Note that Atlanta has gone 70-26 all-time with Max Fried on the mound as a favorite, as is the case here. The Braves are also 47-21 when coming off consecutive losses against an opponent, which is also the situation here (Atlanta has dropped its last two meetings with Philadelphia), over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, the Phillies check in just 6-11 when coming off four or more consecutive games in which they allowed four runs or less this season, outscored by an average margin of 1.9 runs in that situation. We'll also favor the Braves noting that Phillies starter Zack Wheeler has posted a 7-11 team record in 18 previous nighttime starts this season. Take Atlanta (8*). |
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10-07-23 | Phillies v. Braves -195 | 3-0 | Loss | -195 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Saturday. I expect plenty of runs on the board as the Braves send Spencer Strider to the hill against Ranger Suarez in Game 1 of this NLDS on Saturday. Current Braves hitters have actually been held at bay to a certain extent by Suarez, combining to go 27-for-113 (.239). However, four different Braves have homered off of the left-hander previously and I believe a number of bats in their lineup are in line for some positive regression here. Note that Michael Harris in particular is just 1-for-13 against Suarez but hasn't really been getting fooled, striking out only twice. That's a common theme. As a whole, the Braves have struck out just 23 times while walking 16 times against Suarez. Compare that to Spencer Strider against current Phillies hitters. Strider has held the Philadelphia bats to a 25-for-146 (.171) ledger at the dish, racking up a whopping 60 strikeouts while walking only 10. With that said, four different Phillies hitters have also homered off of Strider. If the Braves have an achilles heel it's their bullpen as they've blown 13 saves at home this season and rate out poorly in terms of hits and home runs allowed. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a long-term 151-111 with the Phillies coming off a win over a division opponent in which they allowed one run or less, leading to an average total of 9.5 runs in that situation while the 'over' is 21-8 with the Braves at home seeking revenge for a one-run loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 10.6 runs. Take the over (8*). |
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10-03-23 | Rangers v. Rays -146 | 4-0 | Loss | -146 | 18 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Texas at 3:05 pm et on Tuesday. Rangers starter Jordan Montgomery pitched exceptionally well down the stretch, allowing just two earned runs over his last four starts. He's made 14 career starts against the Rays and hasn't fared well, however, posting a 4.93 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. Current Tampa Bay hitters have had plenty of success against the left-hander, batting just shy of .300 in 84 at-bats with six home runs. Rays starter Tyler Glasnow will be pleased to be facing the Rangers as he owns a 0.46 ERA and 0.56 WHIP, albeit in just three career outings against them. Glasnow also checks in sporting a 3.18 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 10 home starts this season. The bullpens are virtually a wash with one important exception. The Rangers have converted just 30 saves this season while blowing an identical 30. Meanwhile, the Rays 'pen has converted 45 saves while blowing only 26. This series won't be a walk for Tampa Bay but I do expect it to gain the upper hand in Game 1 on Tuesday. Take Tampa Bay (8*). |
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09-30-23 | Dodgers -160 v. Giants | 1-2 | Loss | -160 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over San Francisco at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. Clayton Kershaw will get his final start of the regular season for the Dodgers on Saturday and while this is a meaningless game in the grand scheme of things, I do expect the future Hall-of-Famer to keep the same approach and take care of his business the way he always does. Kershaw will undoubtedly be happy to be facing the Giants, noting that he owns a 1.98 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 56 career starts against them. He most recently tossed five shutout innings in a 7-0 victory over San Francisco one week ago tonight. San Francisco will give the start to Tristan Beck. He's been reasonably effective out of the bullpen this season but not so much as a starter. In two previous starts, Beck has allowed nine earned runs in seven innings. Note that the trio of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and J.D. Martinez have gone a combined 5-for-9 off of Beck without a single strikeout. The Dodgers bullpen doesn't own as much of an advantage as you might think in this game as the Giants relief corps has been fairly reliable if not overworked (they're approaching 700 innings pitched on the season). With that said, the Los Angeles bullpen is easy to trust away from home, where it has converted 21 saves while blowing only six this season. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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09-30-23 | Red Sox v. Orioles -130 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Baltimore over Boston at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Red Sox were shutout victors in last night's matchup between these two teams, evening the series at a game apiece. I look for the Orioles to answer back on Saturday. Kutter Crawford will take the ball for Boston. He's lasted six innings just once in his last six starts and checks in sporting a 5.69 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 13 nighttime starts this season. Current Orioles hitters have had plenty of success against Crawford, reaching him for 11 hits in 22 at-bats with only three strikeouts to go along with three walks. Kyle Gibson will counter for Baltimore. He's given the O's a big lift when it counts this season, logging a 3.18 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in eight starts against A.L. East opponents, with Baltimore winning six of those contests. He's also closing out the regular season in excellent form, posting a 2.45 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over his last three starts. For his career, Gibson has recorded a 3.72 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in nine previous starts against Boston. The Orioles own a slight advantage in terms of the bullpen matchup. Baltimore's relief corps has posted a collective 1.86 ERA and 0.62 WHIP over the last seven games, being called into duty for only 19 1/3 innings over that stretch. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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09-29-23 | Cubs -111 v. Brewers | 3-4 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Cubs margin for error is razor-thin at this point after they were swept in a three-game series in Atlanta. The good news is, they're heading to Milwaukee to face a Brewers club that wrapped up the N.L. Central title earlier this week and will be looking to give some of their regular starters some rest during this series. I do think Chicago has the right guy on the mound to end its losing skid on Friday as it hands the ball to veteran Kyle Hendricks. The Cubs are a perfect 4-0 in his last four outings against the Brewers. Current Milwaukee hitters have gone a woeful 34-for-152 (.224) with 40 strikeouts and 17 walks against Hendricks. He deserved better than the loss he received in his most recent outing as he gave up three earned runs, only one of them earned, over six innings against the Pirates. The fact that Hendricks hasn't allowed a home run in seven of his last eight starts is a good indicator that he's in solid form down the stretch. Colin Rea will counter for Milwaukee. He was demoted to the bullpen following his last start. Rea pitched reasonably well earlier in the season but has seen his FIP rise to 5.07 thanks to a rough stretch this month. He lasted fewer than five innings in each of his four September starts. It's difficult to get a sense for how Cubs hitters will fare against Rea as only Cody Bellinger and Jeimer Candelario have seen him previously (a combined three at-bats). The Brewers bullpen has certainly been superior to that of the Cubs this season but I question how Milwaukee will handle its key relief arms (likely very carefully) in this series with the playoffs on the horizon. Take Chicago (8*). |
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09-27-23 | Padres -105 v. Giants | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 25 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday. To say Padres hitters have worn out former teammate Sean Manaea would be an understatement. They've gone a combined 26-for-78 (.333) off the left-hander including 11 extra-base hits. Manaea is coming off a stunning seven-inning, shutout performance on the road against the Dodgers but I'm willing to pay to see him to do it again here. On the season, Manaea owns a 5.48 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 23 innings of work here at home. Rookie Matt Waldron will counter for the Padres. He's been getting better with each start, most recently striking out nine and allowing only one earned run in 5 2/3 innings in a 4-2 victory over the Cardinals. Prior to that he gave up two earned runs in 5 1/3 innings in a 4-2 road win over the A's. I'll continue to beat the drum that the Giants bullpen is severely overworked in the final week of the season. San Francisco's relief corps is approaching a whopping 700 collective innings on the campaign. In stark contrast, the Padres bullpen entered last night's contest having logged just 561 innings. Take San Diego (8*). |
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09-27-23 | Cardinals v. Brewers -128 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
N.L. Central Game of the Year. My selection is on Milwaukee over St. Louis at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Brewers jumped ahead early and had their opportunity to throw a knockout punch against the reeling Cardinals in last night's series-opener, but squandered it in an eventual 4-1 loss. I look for Milwaukee to bounce back on Wednesday as it hands the ball to veteran left-hander Wade Miley against Zack Thompson of the Cards. Thompson remains in the St. Louis starting rotation out of necessity only as the Cards are simply playing out the string at this point. The right-hander checks in sporting a 4.72 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in eight appearances this season. He just faced the Brewers last week, allowing four earned runs including two home runs in five innings. Note that Thompson has topped out at six strikeouts in his last seven starts. Wade Miley threw six shutout innings in a 6-0 victory over the Cards last week. In fact, Milwaukee has won each of his last three and five of his last six starts overall. Note that Miley owns a 3.08 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 12 nighttime starts this season. While his career numbers against the Cards aren't eye-popping, he has handled their current lineup. St. Louis hitters have gone 18-for-63 (.286) off the left-hander with five extra-base hits. Keep in mind, Paul Goldschmidt is 10-for-20 against Miley with a pair of doubles and a pair of home runs. The problem for Goldy right now is, it's just not that difficult to pitch around him given the current state of the St. Louis lineup (Nolan Arenado headlines the list of players on the I.L.). Sporting one of the best bullpens in baseball, the Brew Crew should have a significant edge in the latter innings on Tuesday. Milwaukee relievers have not only been effective, but haven't been overworked either, logging a collective 538 2/3 innings on the campaign (entering last night's action). The Brewers 'pen entered this series having recorded a collective 1.93 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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09-26-23 | Padres -118 v. Giants | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
Division Game of the Week. My selection is on San Diego over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. The Padres dropped a heart-breaker and spoiled another win for likely N.L. Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell in the opener of this series last night. San Diego couldn't get anything going offensively after plating a run in the first inning against Giants ace Logan Webb. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday as they face San Francisco rookie Kyle Harrison. While Harrison undoubtedly has a bright MLB future, he's been going through it since his late-August call-up. Harrison checks in having allowed 14 earned runs in just 20 innings of work over his last four starts. This will be his second career start against the Padres after getting lit up to the tune of six earned runs in 5 2/3 innings back on September 2nd. Behind Harrison is a struggling Giants bullpen that entered last night's contest sporting an ERA well north of six over the last seven games. The good news is they weren't pressed into duty thanks to Logan Webb's complete game performance. The bad news is, they do figure to play a prominent role on Tuesday, noting that Harrison has lasted six innings just once in six career outings. Seth Lugo will take the ball for San Diego. He has quietly been the Padres most consistent starter outside of Snell, working at least six innings in 11 of his last 15 starts. In nine outings against N.L. West opponents this season he has logged a 3.16 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. He should be happy to be facing the Giants here, noting that he has posted a 3.08 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in four career starts against them. Like the Giants, the Padres didn't need to use many bullpen resources last night and unfortunately it was to their detriment leaving Robert Suarez in the game for the final 1 1/3 innings. All told, Padres relievers have worked around 120 innings fewer than the Giants relief corps this season. Take San Diego (10*). |
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09-26-23 | Reds v. Guardians -102 | 11-7 | Loss | -102 | 21 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Cincinnati at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday. We'll fade the Reds after they snapped their losing streak with a victory over the Pirates on Sunday. Now they follow up an off day on Monday with a short trip to Cleveland to face a Guardians club that is essentially playing with 'house money', albeit not in a positive way, as they play out the string at the end of a disappointing campaign. Guardians starter Lucas Giolito has bounced around more than any starter in baseball this season so he'll be looking to audition for next season in what is likely his last start of the year on Tuesday. His results have been mixed since joining Cleveland but he is just one start removed from striking out 12 batters over seven shutout innings against Texas so we know what he's capable of. Reds starter Hunter Greene has had an up-and-down campaign as well. He's the pitcher that falls into the letdown spot here after striking out 14 batters against the Twins in his most recent turn in the starting rotation. Note that Cincinnati still lost that game 5-3 as its offense has run dry down the stretch. Of course the Reds 'need this one more' but that should have little bearing on the end result on Tuesday. I like the Guardians chances of playing spoiler against their cross-state rival. Take Cleveland (8*). |
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09-25-23 | Padres -116 v. Giants | 1-2 | Loss | -116 | 15 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. While it's a case of too little, too late, the Padres have undoubtedly played their best baseball down the stretch. Monday's starter, Blake Snell, has posted Cy Young Award-caliber numbers, logging a 2.33 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. As usual, command has been an issue and as a result Snell's FIP has remained relatively high at 3.48. Here, he'll face a Giants club that doesn't walk at an abnormally high rate but does strike out a ton. Snell should be happy to be facing San Francisco, noting that he owns a career 1.83 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in eight starts against it. The Giants will hand the ball to their ace Logan Webb. Note that he'll be making his second consecutive start on short rest (four days) and looks like a pitcher that's running out of gas a bit having worked north of 200 innings on the season. Webb has topped out at six strikeouts over his last four starts, reaching just four in three of those outings. Speaking of overworked, the Giants bullpen has logged just shy of 700 total innings this season. Entering last night's contest, San Francisco relievers had combined to post a 7.60 ERA and 1.95 WHIP over the last seven games. Take San Diego (8*). |
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09-18-23 | Mariners -165 v. A's | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Mariners got swept in a critical three-game series at home against the Dodgers and now head to Oakland licking their wounds as they look to bounce back and stay in A.L. Wild Card hunt. They've got the right guy on the mound to do just that in rookie Bryan Woo. He had his turn in the starting rotation skipped earlier this month out of concern his arm was tiring having logged north of 120 innings between the minors and bigs this season. That came on the heels of an ugly start in Cincinnati in which he allowed five earned runs over five innings without striking out a single batter. When he did return to the mound on September 12th, he delivered 5 2/3 innings of four-hit shutout ball, striking out eight without issuing a single walk. He'll be making his second career start against the A's on Monday. In his previous outing against them he twirled six shutout innings of three-hit ball in a 7-0 Mariners win on August 28th. J.P. Sears will counter for Oakland. He does own terrific numbers in four career starts against Seattle, logging a 0.86 WHIP and 0.95 WHIP. Keep in mind, the last time he saw the Mariners back in May, he wasn't necessarily fooling anyone, striking out just one batter over five innings. In a similar vein, Sears has reeled off victories in each of his last three starts overall, yet he has recorded a disappointing 9:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio over that stretch, covering a span of 17 innings. The A's are just 4-9 in his 13 home starts this season where he has posted a 4.76 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. The bullpens in this matchup have been a wash lately but there's no denying the Mariners relief corps has been the superior group as a whole this season. I like the spot for the Seattle 'pen here after Sunday's lopsided defeat against the Dodgers allowed it to use only two relievers, keeping its key arms rested for Monday's trip to Oakland. Note that Mariners relievers have combined to record a 3.26 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with 13 saves converted and only one blown against divisional opponents this season. Take Seattle (8*). |
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09-17-23 | Padres v. A's +154 | 10-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over San Diego at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. A's starter Ken Waldichuk has enjoyed a nice turnaround as this season has gone on and enters this start in terrific form having allowed just five hits and one earned run over his last three outings, covering a span of 16 innings of work. He's expected to get the bulk of the work on Sunday, perhaps after rookie Joe Boyle gets the first inning in an 'opener' role. While the Padres have taken the first two games of this series, they're still just a team playing out the string, not a whole lot different from the A's. I look for Oakland to salvage Sunday's series finale as they take on Nick Martinez of San Diego. Martinez checks in sporting a rather pedestrian 4.18 FIP and 1.31 WHIP on the season. In his two most recent appearances he didn't manage to strike out a single batter, allowing five-of-nine he faced to reach base in 1 2/3 innings. This amounts to a 'bullpen game' for the Padres and I look for the A's bats to take advantage. Take Oakland (8*). |
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09-16-23 | Dodgers v. Mariners +132 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Saturday. The Dodgers took the opener of this series by a 6-3 score last night. I look for the Mariners to answer back on Saturday. Future Hall-of-Famer Clayton Kershaw will take the ball for Los Angeles. He enters this start having allowed at least one home run in five straight outings and eight walks over his last two trips to the hill, spanning just 10 innings of work. The Mariners have never defeated Kershaw in four tries against him but it's worth noting that he hasn't faced Seattle since 2020. Rookie Bryce Miller will get the call for the Mariners. He got roughed up to the tune of five earned runs allowed over five innings against the Rays last time out. Miller's last two starts came on the road. Here at home he owns a 3.62 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 12 starts with the Mariners winning eight of those. While the Dodgers bullpen figures to have an advantage over that of the Mariners however I do feel Seattle's relief corps is worthy of support, noting that it has converted 21 saves while blowing only six at home this season. Take Seattle (8*). |
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09-14-23 | Rangers v. Blue Jays -146 | 9-2 | Loss | -146 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over Texas at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Blue Jays will look to avoid the four-game series sweep against the Rangers on Thursday. I like their chances as they send Kevin Gausman to the hill against Nathan Eovaldi. Gausman bounced back from a rough stretch by tossing eight innings of two-hit, one-run ball, striking out 10 along the way against the Royals last time out. His career numbers against the Rangers are a mixed bag with a 3.21 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Gausman does catch a break with the Rangers missing Adolis Garcia and Josh Jung among others. Note that current (healthy) Rangers hitters have gone just 23-for-82 off of Gausman. Nathan Eovaldi has made two starts since returning from the I.L. He hasn't gotten all that stretched out, working just 1 1/3 and 2 1/3 innings in those two outings. Eovaldi hasn't seemed quite right, giving up eight hits while striking out only four and walking three in 3 2/3 innings since returning. Current Blue Jays hitters have gone 31-for-102 against Eovaldi with eight extra base hits. Both bullpens have struggled lately. The Blue Jays 'pen has been anything but overworked, however, logging just 21 2/3 innings over the last eight games. Meanwhile, Rangers relievers have worked just shy of 40 innings over that same stretch. Take Toronto (8*). |
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09-13-23 | Rangers v. Blue Jays -112 | 10-0 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over Texas at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the bounce-back spot for the Blue Jays here after they dropped the first two games of this series. Jordan Montgomery will take the ball for Texas. He has posted solid overall numbers this season but things have certainly gone south lately as he has recorded an 8.59 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over his last three starts, covering a span of 14 2/3 innings. Current Blue Jays hitters have gotten to the left-hander to the tune of 30-for-100 at the plate. Of note, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have combined to reach him for 10 hits including three home runs in 29 at-bats. Yusei Kikuchi has quietly been one of Toronto's most reliable starting pitchers this season, entering Wednesday's outing sporting a 3.57 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He turned in an efficient five-inning outing against the Royals last time out, allowing just three hits and one earned run while striking out eight and walking one. While he's taking a step up in class against the Rangers here, I think he'll actually be happy to see Texas, noting he owns a perfect 4-0 team record with a 2.89 ERA and 0.64 WHIP in 18 2/3 innings of work against them. Some will point to the fact that he hasn't faced them since 2021 but current Rangers hitters have gone a woeful 9-for-50 with just three extra-base hits off of Kikuchi. Neither bullpen has pitched particularly well lately but it's worth noting that the Rangers relief corps has combined to blow 14 saves while converting only 11 on the road this season (entering last night's action). Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have made good on 49 save opportunities while blowing only 16 on the campaign. Take Toronto (8*). |
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09-12-23 | Padres v. Dodgers -151 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
N.L. Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles over San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Padres took the opener of this series last night, putting up 10 runs in a wild, high-scoring affair. I expect the Dodgers to answer back on Tuesday. Michael Wacha will take the ball for San Diego. He mercifully hasn't faced the Dodgers since 2019 as he owns a lofty 5.51 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 10 previous outings against them. While Wacha has posted solid overall numbers this season he has labored through his last few starts, recording a 5.28 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in his last 15 1/3 innings of work. Lance Lynn gets the start for Los Angeles. Like Wacha, the veteran right-hander has also struggled lately. I'm willing to bet on him bouncing back on Tuesday as he should be happy to be facing the Padres, noting that he owns a 2.61 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 10 career outings against them. In fact, Lynn has already faced San Diego once since joining the Dodgers prior to the trade deadline, holding them to one earned run over six innings in an 8-2 victory on August 6th. There's not a lot separating the two bullpens although it's worth noting that the Padres have more than twice as many blown saves on the road (17) as the Dodgers do at home (8). Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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09-10-23 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -136 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Arizona at 2:20 pm et on Sunday. One more clutch hit would have probably done it for the Cubs yesterday but instead they dropped their third straight game at the hands of the Diamondbacks and will be looking to avoid a disastrous four-game sweep on Sunday afternoon. I like their chances of doing just that. After facing Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly over the last two days, the Cubs will take a step down in class against D'Backs rookie Brandon Pfaadt on Sunday. Pfaadt has flashed at times during his rookie campaign but has generally struggled and enters in poor form having allowed 10 earned runs on 17 hits over his last three outings covering a span of just 13 innings. Veteran Kyle Hendricks will be tasked with helping the Cubs snap their skid. He gave up four earned runs over 5 1/3 innings against the Giants last time out but is just one start removed from tossing six innings of one-run, four-hit ball against the Brewers. Chicago has won three of his last four starts overall and he owns a terrific 3.15 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in nine daytime starts this season. The bullpens are virtually a wash except for the fact that Arizona has nearly twice as many blown saves this season (25 compared to 15). Take Chicago (8*). |
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09-09-23 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -137 | 3-2 | Loss | -137 | 17 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Arizona at 2:20 pm et on Saturday. The Diamondbacks have closed the gap on the Cubs in the N.L. Wild Card race, winning three straight games including two in a row to open this series at Wrigley Field. I expect the Cubs to bounce back on Saturday, however, as they send Justin Steele to the hill against Merrill Kelly. Steele has been on the mound for an incredible nine straight Cubs victories. A 20-win campaign is well within his sights at this point and I look for him to take another step toward that goal on Saturday. Note that Steele has tossed 14 shutout innings over his last two starts, striking out 20 and walking only three along the way. Merrill Kelly is coming off a lights out performance of his own, allowing one earned run over seven innings against the Rockies. He's also just one start removed from giving up seven earned runs on 12 hits over five innings against the Dodgers. Current Cubs hitters haven't seen a whole lot of Kelly, with the exception of former division rival Cody Bellinger who has two home runs in 22 at-bats against him. The two bullpens are virtually a wash in this matchup although the D'Backs have blown 15 saves on the road while the Cubs have just six blown saves at home. Take Chicago (8*). |
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09-07-23 | Tigers +150 v. Yankees | Top | 10-3 | Win | 150 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
Game of the Week. My selection is on Detroit over New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Yankees are suddenly one of the hottest teams in baseball, winners of five games in a row and eight of their last nine contests overall. I look for the Tigers to bring an end to their run on Thursday, however. Eduardo Rodriguez will take the ball for Detroit. After a rocky outing against the red hot Astros bats on August 26th, Rodriguez rebounded to hold the White Sox to just one earned run over 6 2/3 innings last time out. That performance lowered his road ERA and WHIP to 3.03 and 1.11 respectively on the season. Rodriguez is of course very familiar with the Yankees from his day with the division rival Red Sox. He's held up well against the Bronx Bombers, logging a 3.63 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 22 career starts against them, with his teams winning 12 of those games. Carlos Rodon will counter for New York. It's been a tough return from injury for the left-hander as he has managed to work beyond the fifth inning in only three of nine starts since returning in early July. While the Yankees did manage to win his last start by a 6-2 score in Houston, Rodon was once again average at best, allowing three hits and two earned runs while striking out only four and walking one in five frames. New York has only won two of his nine starts this season. The last time it won a Rodon start, it dropped a 5-2 decision against the Rays at home in his next trip to the hill. The Yankees bullpen has been lights out lately but I don't mind the matchup here with the Tigers 'pen having posted a 4.01 ERA and 1.33 WHIP while converting 20 saves and blowing 11 on the road this season. Take Detroit (10*). |
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09-06-23 | Mariners -160 v. Reds | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Mariners bullpen coughed it up in last night's 7-6 defeat. That hasn't been a common occurrence as Seattle's relief corps has been among the best in baseball this season, posting a 3.43 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 40 saves converted and only 16 blown (entering last night's action). The M's 'pen has also logged well south of 500 innings on the campaign, leaving it in excellent shape down the stretch. Contrast that with the Reds bullpen which has logged a 4.02 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 548 2/3 innings (also entering last night's contest). Enough about the bullpens though, let's talk about the starting pitching matchup on Wednesday. Logan Gilbert will get the call for the Mariners. They dropped his last start in a heart-breaker against the Mets, losing 2-1 in Queens. Note that Seattle hasn't lost consecutive Gilbert starts since June 11th and 17th. Since then, they've gone 10-3 in his last 13 outings. Gilbert brings excellent form into this start having allowed just two earned runs in 13 2/3 innings over his last two outings, striking out 16 and walking only one along the way. Lyon Richardson will counter for Cincinnati. While he's enjoyed plenty of success at the minor league level this season, that hasn't translated to the majors. In three spot starts, Richardson has worked just 12 innings, recording a 7.76 FIP and 1.75 WHIP with 20-of-56 batters he's faced reaching base. The Mariners can certainly make you pay for putting runners on base as they are among the big league leaders in home runs with 184 on the season. They check in averaging just north of 5.0 runs per game on the road. Take Seattle (8*). |
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09-02-23 | Orioles -134 v. Diamondbacks | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore over Arizona at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The Diamondbacks took care of the Orioles by a 4-2 score last night to snap a three-game losing streak. I look for Baltimore to bounce back behind underrated starter Kyle Bradish on Saturday. Bradish has posted terrific numbers this season, logging a 3.45 FIP and 1.11 WHIP in 133 2/3 innings of work. Over his last three starts he has given up just 13 hits in 18 innings, striking out 23 and walking only three along the way. Rookie Slade Cecconi has pitched reasonably well for the Diamondbacks when called upon. He owns a sub-1.00 WHIP on the season but has worked only 21 innings. I can't help but feel regression is coming for the right-hander, noting he had posted a lofty 6.38 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 100+ innings of work at the Triple-A level earlier this season. Despite closing out last night's game, the D'Backs bullpen still owns a less than impressive 6.57 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Baltimore (8*). |
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09-01-23 | Orioles -109 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 57 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Friday. While Orioles left-hander Cole Irvin has had a tough time staying healthy this season, when he's been right, he's been terrific. Irvin opened the campaign with a string of three consecutive poor outings. Since then, he's allowed one earned run or less in six of eight starts. Last time out, he made a few bad pitches on the way to allowing four earned runs against the Rockies but still hung in there for six innings in an eventual 5-4 victory. Baltimore checks in having won each of Irvin's last six trips to the hill. Here, he'll face a Diamondbacks team that is licking its wounds after a three-game sweep at the hands of the Dodgers (none of those games were close). They check in averaging just 4.4 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season and 4.5 runs per contest at Chase Field. In stark contrast, the Orioles have put up an average of 5.3 runs per game in posting a 41-24 road record. Zach Davies will get the start for Arizona. The D'Backs wasted a rare quality start from Davies last time out as he allowed just one earned run in five innings against the Reds but they dropped an 8-7 decision. Davies owns a disappointing 4.69 FIP and 1.60 WHIP this season. He's just one start removed from allowing nine earned runs in 3 2/3 innings and has given up at least six earned runs in three of his last seven outings. Not helping the D'Backs cause is the fact that their bullpen has logged a 6.57 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the last seven games. Meanwhile, the O's 'pen has posted a collective 3.00 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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08-29-23 | Reds +145 v. Giants | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. The Giants cruised to a 4-1 victory to open this series last night, notching their second straight victory. I'm confident we'll see the Reds bounce back on Tuesday as they give Brandon Williamson the start against Alex Cobb. Williamson is coming off a terrific outing in Arizona as he tossed six shutout innings in an eventual 3-2 loss. In fact, the Reds have lost each of his last three starts - their longest such streak of the season - despite Williamson logging a 2.60 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over that stretch. We know what we're going to get from Giants starter Alex Cobb. He owns a 3.96 FIP and 1.38 WHIP on the season and far worse, a 7.20 ERA and 1.73 WHIP over his last three starts. The Giants bullpen didn't have to do much heavy lifting last night and that's probably a good thing as they entered that contest sporting a collective 4.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with two saves converted and three blown over their last seven games. Take Cincinnati (8*). |
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08-29-23 | Yankees v. Tigers -118 | 4-2 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over New York at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Yankees took the opener of this series last night but are still going nowhere as they wallow beneath the .500 mark on the season. Here, I look for the Tigers to bounce back as they hand the ball to underrated left-hander Tarik Skubal against Michael King. Skubal has logged a 1.92 FIP and 1.08 WHIP in 44 1/3 innings of work this season after posting an impressive 2.96 FIP and 1.16 WHIP in 117 1/23 frames last year. The Michael King starting experience hasn't worked out for the Yankees as they've dropped his two prevous starts this season and seven of his last eight starts overall going back to 2020. Neither bullpen has pitched particularly well lately. As is often the case, the Yankees bullpen is being priced in as an advantage but I don't believe the gap is as wide as most believe (note the Tigers have converted 32 saves while blowing only 18 this season). Take Detroit (8*). |
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08-28-23 | Reds +105 v. Giants | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
National League Game of the Week. My selection is on Cincinnati over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. The Reds managed to secure just one win in a four-game series in Arizona but I look for them to bounce back as they head to San Francisco on Monday. Andrew Abbott will take the ball for Cincinnati. He's enjoyed a fine rookie campaign having logged a 4.01 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in 85 1/3 innings of work. While walks have been an issue at times, he's made up for it by striking out just shy of 10 batters per nine innings and also giving up just north of seven hits per nine innings. Note that Abbott has yet to hit a batter or throw a wild pitch this season. His counterpart on Monday will be fellow rookie Kyle Harrison, who will be making his second big league start. Harrison's first outing went ok but he certainly wasn't dominant, recording a 5.97 FIP and 1.80 WHIP in 3 1/3 innings (small sample size, I know). At the minor league level this season (Rookie League and Triple-A) he has worked 67 2/3 innings, posting a 4.52 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. The Giants threw some key relievers at the Braves last night as they were desperately trying to hold on to avoid a series sweep (they succeeded). Note that San Francisco relievers have now logged just shy of 580 innings on the season and well north of 30 innings over the last seven games. Entering last night's contest they had recorded a collective 5.26 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over the last seven games. While the Reds bullpen has been taxed lately as well, it did enter Sunday's action sporting a 3.21 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over the last seven contests. On the season, Reds relievers have converted 27 saves while blowing only 10 on the road. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
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08-26-23 | Rangers -115 v. Twins | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Minnesota at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We've seen a pair of high-scoring games to open this series with the Twins bats having their way with Rangers pitching. I do think that changes on Saturday as Texas hands the ball to Max Scherzer against Joe Ryan of the Twins. Scherzer is coming off a rough outing against the Brewers as he was chased in the fourth inning after giving up three earned runs in an eventual 6-2 loss. The ultimate competitor, I'm confident we'll see Mad Max bounce back here, noting he still owns a sparkling 2.55 FIP and 0.97 WHIP in four starts since joining the Rangers. Scherzer should be able to use his full arsenal against a Twins lineup that has had limited experience against him. Current Twins hitters are a combined 7-for-26 (.269) against Scherzer with only one extra-base hit (a home run from Kyle Farmer). Joe Ryan makes his return from a stint on the injured list for the Twins. To say he's owned Rangers hitters would be an understatement as they've gone just 2-for-31 (.065) with one extra-base hit (a home run from Marcus Siemian) off of him. Ryan struck out seven and gave up just one earned run over four innings in his minor league rehab start at Triple-A St. Paul. With all of that said, Ryan seemed to have a case of the 'yips' when we last saw him at the big league level as he was tagged for a whopping 17 home runs over his last seven starts, covering a span of just 32 innings. The Rangers bats have been rather dormant lately but certainly have the potential to break out at any time. Neither bullpen has been all that reliable lately. I do like backing teams coming off blowout results, however, as it generally leads to their key arms being rested, as is the case with the Rangers here. Mired in a long losing streak, they should be confident taking the field behind Scherzer on Saturday and I look for them to bust out of their slump. Take Texas (8*). |
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08-25-23 | Dodgers -115 v. Red Sox | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Red Sox salvaged a four-game series split in Houston thanks to a blowout victory yesterday. I'm not convinced they'll be able to notch a third straight win on Friday, however, as they welcome the Dodgers to Fenway Park. Los Angeles picked up a pair of victories in Cleveland yesterday. The Dodgers are in cruise control as they run away with the N.L. West Division title but that doesn't mean they've taken their foot off the gas as they continue to play winning baseball. Veteran Lance Lynn will get the call for Los Angeles on Friday. It's amazing what moving to a contending team can do for a pitcher as we've seen Lynn give up just four earned runs in four starts, spanning 25 innings of work since joining the Dodgers. His opponent on Friday will be Kutter Crawford. While he has had a fine season, he hasn't proven to be a good fit pitching here at Fenway Park, where he owns an inflated 8.00 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in seven starts. Behind Crawford is a Red Sox bullpen that has been severely overworked, logging 517 2/3 innings this season (entering yesterday's action) and having not had a day off since August 14th. The Dodgers 'pen entered Thursday's action sporting a collective 2.39 ERA and 0.80 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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08-25-23 | Cubs v. Pirates +105 | 1-2 | Win | 105 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Chicago at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Cubs are admittedly playing well right now, winners of five of their last six games including an extra innings victory to open this series last night. I like the Pirates chances of getting back at Chicago on Friday, however, as they send Mitch Keller to the hill against Kyle Hendricks. Keller had a rough stretch in July and early August but has since turned it around again, allowing only three earned runs while striking out 19 and walking just four in 12 innings of work over his last two starts. He owns a 3.53 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 12 home starts this season. Behind him is a Pirates bullpen that continues to pitch well, particularly here at home where it has converted 20 saves while blowing only seven this season. Kyle Hendricks was masterful over 6 1/3 innings last time out but that was against the Royals. Note that he has posted a 4.47 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in nine nighttime starts this year. Ke'Bryan Hayes, Andrew McCutchen and Bryan Reynolds are three current Pirates hitters that have homered off of Hendricks at least once. Take Pittsburgh (8*). |
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08-24-23 | Rangers +113 v. Twins | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Rangers limp into Minnesota on the heels of six straight losses while the Twins are licking their wounds following a two-game sweep at the hands of the Brewers in Milwaukee. Here, I like Texas to bounce back as it sends Andrew Heaney to the mound against Pablo Lopez. Heaney put together consecutive solid outings to start the month before struggling in his last two starts. He'll be happy to be facing the Twins, noting he owns a perfect 4-0 team record in four career starts against them, logging a 2.38 ERA and 0.79 WHIP along the way. Current Twins hitters are a combined 20-for-84 (.238) against the veteran left-hander with no home runs and only seven extra-base hits (all doubles). Pablo Lopez has been terrific for the Twins lately. In fact, he's allowed just one earned run over his last four starts, covering a span of 25 innings of work. No Rangers batter has seen Lopez more than four times but Adolis Garcia is 2-for-3 with a home run off of him. My bigger concern for the Twins here is their bullpen. They got stretched thin in Milwaukee thanks to yesterday's extra innings affair. Note that their relief corps entered yesterday's contest sporting a collective 5.87 ERA and 1.70 WHIP over the last seven games and didn't do anything to help their cause in that extra innings defeat. Meanwhile, the Rangers were idle on Wednesday. Take Texas (8*). |
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08-23-23 | Royals -120 v. A's | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
American League Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas City over Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Wednesday. The A's have taken the first two games of this series but I'm confident we'll see the Royals answer back on Wednesday afternoon. Cole Ragans has quietly pitched well for Kansas City with the Royals splitting his four starts since being inserted into the rotation earlier this month. On the season, Ragans owns an impressive 2.26 FIP in 28 2/3 innings of work. While he has struggled in two previous outings against Oakland (both last season), current A's hitters haven't done much damage against him going a combined 3-for-20 at the dish. Adrian Martinez will get a spot start for Oakland - his first of the season. He was awful last year, posting a 5.35 FIP and 1.53 WHIP in 12 starts. In 32 1/3 relief innings this season, Martinez has logged a 4.44 FIP and 1.42 WHIP. Neither bullpen has been all that sharp lately but I do have more faith in the Royals relief corps, which has combined to convert 13 saves while blowing only seven on the road this season. Contrast that with the A's 'pen, which has blown 12 saves compared to just 11 converted at home. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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08-22-23 | Nationals +165 v. Yankees | 2-1 | Win | 165 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. This is quickly becoming a lost season for the Yankees as they've lost nine games in a row to fall out of contention in the American League and last place in the A.L. East. While a home series with the Nationals would usually provide some relief, the fact is Washington is playing much better baseball lately and is certainly no 'easy out'. The Nats have won seven of their last nine games overall and will hand the ball to Josiah Gray on Tuesday. Remember, Gray was selected to the National League All-Star team earlier this season. While he hasn't exactly posted All-Star caliber numbers lately, I do think he's capable of rising to the occasion following a string of rocky outings. In 14 road starts this season, the right-hander has logged a terrific 2.82 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. That's world's better than what we've seen from Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodon. Since returning from a long stint on the injured list, Rodon has posted a 7.38 FIP and 1.52 WHIP in six starts. New York has managed to win just one of his six outings to date. While the Yankees bullpen has certainly been superior to that of the Nationals this season, we're still talking about an overworked relief corps that is approaching 480 innings pitched on the campaign. Lately, the Yanks 'pen has been anything but invincible, recording a collective 3.98 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Washington (8*). |
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08-22-23 | Cubs v. Tigers +110 | 6-8 | Win | 110 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Chicago at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Cubs have been giving Drew Smyly minimal turns in the rotation lately, and for good reason. The veteran left-hander hasn't had a productive start since mid-June, allowing 31 earned runs over his last six outings, covering a span of just 27 innings of work. Over that stretch, the Cubs won just one of Smyly's starts and that was in a game where they produced 16 runs against the Reds. Rookie Reese Olson has had an up-and-down start to his big league career. He allowed four earned runs in just 2 2/3 innings against the Twins last time out. Note that was his second straight start against Minnesota and in his previous one he tossed six shutout innings. After dropping Olson's first two starts, the Tigers have now gone 5-4 over his last nine trips to the hill. Neither bullpen has been all that reliable lately and are virtually a wash on the season. Take Detroit (8*). |
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08-20-23 | Mets v. Cardinals -141 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over New York at 2:15 pm et on Sunday. The Mets have had their way with the Cardinals so far in this series but I look for St. Louis to answer back in Sunday's series-finale. Carlos Carrasco will take the ball for New York. He's having a disastrous campaign having posted a 5.83 FIP and 1.63 WHIP in 18 starts. Note that he's faced the Cardinals twice since the start of last season, allowing a whopping 12 earned runs in just 6 2/3 innings of work with the Mets dropping both of those contests. Dakota Hudson will get the start for the Cards. He's guided St. Louis to wins in all three of his starts this season and six in a row going back to last year. Note that he's worked at least into the seventh inning in two of his three trips to the hill this season. The bullpens are virtually a wash on the season although the Mets relief corps has admittedly performed better lately (only marginally). Given how lopsided this series has been, the majority of the Cards key bullpen arms remain rested. Take St. Louis (8*). |
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08-20-23 | Red Sox v. Yankees -108 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
Division Game of the Week. My selection is on New York over Boston at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. The Yankees are sliding right now, fresh off another lopsided defeat at the hands of the rival Red Sox yesterday. I do look for them to salvage the finale of this series on Sunday, however. Josh Winckowski will get a spot start for Boston. He allowed a whopping 10.9 hits per nine innings during his rookie year last season (in 70 1/3 innings pitched) and is on track to post a similar number this year (10.2 hits allowed per nine innings in 64 2/3 innings pitched). Of the 278 batters he has faced this season, 94 have managed to reach base. His counterpart on Sunday will be Clarke Schmidt. He's coming off a dreadful outing against arguably the best offense in baseball in Atlanta. I'm willing to give the rookie a pass for that poor start as he had been pitching well for an extended stretch, allowing three earned runs or less in each of his previous 14 starts. The Yankees bullpen continues to do its job having logged a collective 2.88 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over the last seven games. I like the prospect of getting behind their relief corps here following consecutive lopsided games as most of their key arms remain rested. Take New York (10*). |
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08-18-23 | Orioles -169 v. A's | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The Orioles are licking their wounds after suffering consecutive losses in San Diego but after a day off on Thursday I look for them to 'get right' in their series-opener in Oakland on Friday. Kyle Gibson was awful for the O's in his most recent trip to the hill, allowing nine earned runs in 5 2/3 innings against the Mariners. Credit Gibson for eating as many innings as he did on that night. Keep in mind, he had been pitching well, working at least six innings in four straight starts while allowing just nine earned runs in 25 frames of work. A start against the A's would appear to be a soft landing for the veteran right-hander, noting he owns a career 6-3 record with a 3.80 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 11 previous outings against them. Luis Medina will take the ball for Oakland. He's been reliable as far as staying healthy and taking his regular turn in the rotation since late April but his results have been mixed. Medina checks in sporting a 4.84 FIP and 1.53 WHIP. He puts a ton of runners on base having allowed 132-of-375 batters to reach this season and is precisely the type of pitcher the O's lineup tends to feast on. Behind Medina is an A's bullpen that has logged a 5.26 ERA and 1.95 WHIP over the last seven games and has converted only 20 saves while blowing 23 this season. The O's 'pen on the other hand has recorded a collective 2.78 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over the last seven contests and has converted 39 saves while blowing 23 on the season. Take Baltimore (8*). |
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08-18-23 | Blue Jays -145 v. Reds | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Toronto over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Friday. While the Reds are coming off a win over the Guardians to split their two-game series on Wednesday, they're still just 4-10 over their last 14 games and will give Brett Kennedy a spot start out of necessity only on Friday. Kennedy has made just one start previously this season and while it was a win, it came on the road against the Nationals. I don't believe he'll prove to be a good fit here at Great American Ballpark and certainly not in this particular matchup. Note that Kennedy has logged a 3.52 FIP and 1.30 WHIP in 64 innings pitched at Triple-A Louisville this season. Jose Berrios will counter for Toronto. While he did struggle against the Cubs in his most recent start, he has enjoyed a bounce-back season overall, posting a 4.00 FIP and 1.22 WHIP in 24 starts. Behind Berrios is a Blue Jays bullpen that welcomed back closer Jordan Romano earlier this week and has recorded a collective 1.85 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over the last seven games. Over that same stretch, the Reds have managed to convert just one save while blowing three. Take Toronto (10*). |
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08-16-23 | Phillies +132 v. Blue Jays | 9-4 | Win | 132 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Blue Jays eked out a 2-1 victory in the opener of this brief two-game series last night. I look for the Phillies to answer back on Wednesday. Philadelphia will give Aaron Nola the start as he comes off a terrific outing against the Nationals last time out (5 IP, 1 ER). Things haven't always gone well for the right-hander this season but he's hung tough to the tune of a 4.21 FIP and 1.14 WHIP. Remember, he finished fourth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting last year - the third time in the last five seasons he finished top-seven in that category. Kevin Gausman will counter for Toronto. He has faced the Phillies three times since 2021 and hasn't allowed a single earned run in any of those outings (18 IP). That doesn't tell the whole story, however. A number of current Phillies hitters have had considerable success against Gausman. Bryce Harper is 9-of-21 with a home run, Kyle Schwarber is 3-of-10 with all three of those hits being home runs, Trea Turner is 8-of-24 with three extra-base hits and Nick Castellanos is 7-of-24 with two home runs and two doubles. While the Blue Jays do appear to hold the edge in terms of the two bullpens, I don't mind backing a Phillies relief corps that has converted 21 saves while blowing only seven on the road this season. While Philadelphia has now lost three games in a row, it's worth noting that it has dropped four or more consecutive games just once going all the way back to June 3rd. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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08-13-23 | Rangers v. Giants -128 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on San Francisco over Texas at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Rangers have taken the first two games of this series, just as they did earlier this week in Oakland before getting shut out in the finale. While they're playing exceptionally well, I expect them to fail to close out the series sweep again here. Dane Dunning will get the start for Texas. He's not enjoying his best stretch of the season by any means, having allowed 4, 2, 5, 3, 1 and 3 earned runs over his last six outings. Note that while his overall numbers are solid this season, he has struggled in two particular situations - in day games and interleague matchups. Dunning owns a 4.83 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in six afternoon starts and a 5.22 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in six interleague outings. His counterpart on Sunday will be Giants ace Logan Webb. He finished 11th in N.L. Cy Young Award voting last season and his numbers have been right on par this year with a 3.29 FIP and 1.09 WHIP. He's worked at least into the sixth inning in six of his last seven starts, allowing two earned runs or less in five of those outings. He should be happy to be facing the Rangers, noting that he's been on the mound for 9-2 and 4-2 victories in his two previous starts against them. While the Rangers bullpen owns an advantage in terms of recent form, the Giants relief corps has been the better unit overall this season, logging a collective 3.64 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with a whopping 42 saves converted compared to only 19 blown. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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08-10-23 | Twins -145 v. Tigers | 0-3 | Loss | -145 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Detroit at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. The Tigers have taken the last two games in this series but I look for them to come up empty in Thursday's series finale. Minnesota will hand the ball to Kenta Maeda as it looks to snap its brief two-game slide. Maeda has quietly been one of the best pitchers in baseball over his last few starts, recording a 2.08 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. He's certainly been at his best on the road this season, logging a 3.16 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. His counterpart on Thursday will be rookie Reese Olson. Olson actually turned in his best outing of the season against these same Twins back in June but I think he'll be hard-pressed to repeat that performance here. He has seemingly hit the wall lately, allowing 13 earned runs over his last three starts, covering a span of 16 innings. With not much separating the two bullpens in this matchup, we'll go with the Twins and their starting pitching edge on Thursday. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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08-09-23 | Padres -115 v. Mariners | 1-6 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Mariners took the opener of this series by a 2-0 score last night as starter Logan Gilbert tossed a one-hit gem over seven innings. I look for the Padres to answer back on Wednesday as they hand the ball to Yu Darvish against rookie Emerson Hancock, who will be making his first start above Double-A ball for the Mariners. Darvish hasn't posted eye-popping numbers this season, logging a 4.10 FIP and 1.25 WHIP in 114 1/3 innings of work. With that being said, he has generally been pitching well lately, sandwiching four solid outings around a rocky home start against the Pirates. The veteran right-hander checks in having allowed two earned runs or less in four of his last five trips to the hill, lasting at least six innings in four of those five outings as well. He's made two recent starts against the Mariners (one in 2021 and one in 2022), allowing just one earned run over 15 innings of work. Emerson Hancock has been fast-tracked to the Mariners starting rotation out of necessity only after impressive rookie Bryan Woo was put on the I.L. Hancock's results at Double-A Arkansas have been a bit of a mixed-bag this year as he has posted a 4.32 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Note that 128 of the 411 (31.1%) batters has has faced have managed to reach base. The Mariners bullpen does hold the edge in terms of recent form but it's worth noting that the Padres relief corps has mostly been getting called into action in mop-up duty lately (three of their four losses over their last five games have come by five runs or more). As a whole this season, Seattle's 'pen has been only marginally better (3.51 ERA and 1.26 WHIP compared to 3.93 ERA and 1.28 WHIP entering last night's action). Finally, we'll note that the Mariners are in uncharted territory, so to speak, having won six games in a row. Their previous season-long winning streak lasted only four games. The Padres have lost three straight contests. They haven't dropped more than three games in a row since a six-game skid from June 24th to 30th. Take San Diego (8*). |
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08-09-23 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +120 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Year. My selection is on Arizona over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Dodgers made a big lead stand up, just barely, in last night's 5-4 victory to open this brief two-game series in the desert. The Diamondbacks have picked a bad time to go on a slide, losers of seven games in a row. They simply haven't been able to come up with the clutch hits when needed over that stretch with the majority of those recent losses coming down to one or two runs. Here, I look for them to finally bounce back with Merrill Kelly getting the start against Bobby Miller. Miller impressed in his first four starts with the Dodgers this season, allowing just two earned runs on 12 hits in 18 innings of work. Things haven't gone nearly as smoothly since then, however, as he has yielded 28 earned runs over his last eight outings covering a span of 40 1/3 innings. After lasting exactly six innings in three of his first four big league starts, Miller has failed to make it through six frames in seven of his last eight outings. Merrill Kelly has made three starts since returning from a blood clot in his calf and has generally pitched well, yielding six earned runs in 17 innings. His most recent start might have been his best since returning as he struck out nine Twins batters over six innings, allowing just two solo home runs along the way. While his career 0-10 record against the Dodgers jumps off the page, it's worth noting that the D'Backs did secure a 2-1 victory with Kelly starting in Los Angeles earlier this season, snapping a streak of 10 straight Kelly starts against the Dodgers in which Arizona lost. The bullpen edge goes to the Dodgers in this matchup but the gap is not as wide as you might think. I do like the fact that the D'Backs relief corps has yet to reach 400 innings pitched this season. The Dodgers 'pen entered last night's action having logged 28 innings over the last seven games and tacked on another three frames in that contest. Note that Los Angeles hasn't had an off day since July 31st while Arizona was idle on Monday. Take Arizona (10*). |
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08-08-23 | Yankees -145 v. White Sox | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
American League Game of the Year. My selection is on New York over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Yankees were stymied by White Sox ace Dylan Cease in the opener of this series last night, suffering a 5-1 defeat - their second straight loss. The White Sox have now won three games in a row on the heels of a five-game losing streak. I look for that run to end on Tuesday. Clarke Schmidt will take the ball for the visiting Yankees. He got off to a miserable start this season after pitching well predominantly out of the bullpen in his rookie campaign a year ago. The good news is, he's turned it around over the last couple of months and has proven to be an effective starter for the Yanks, lowering his FIP to 4.33 and his WHIP to 1.30. I do think we'll continue to see some positive regression in terms of his hits and home runs allowed, noting he gave up 2.1 fewer hits per nine innings and 0.5 fewer home runs per nine innings last year (albeit with a smaller sample size). Behind Schmidt is a Yankees bullpen that entered this series sporting a collective 2.23 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over the last seven games and has converted 14 saves while blowing only five on the road this season. That's in stark contrast to the White Sox 'pen, which entered last night's action with just 10 saves converted and 13 blown at home this season, logging a collective 4.83 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Chicago will give Touki Toussaint another turn in the starting rotation on Tuesday. His results have been mixed. Case in point, he struck out nine Rangers opposing Max Scherzer last time out but also gave up four earned runs on five hits, two home runs and four walks over 5 1/3 innings. Toussaint has made it through the sixth inning just once in six starts this season. Take New York (10*). |
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08-08-23 | Twins v. Tigers +106 | 0-6 | Win | 106 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Minnesota at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Twins delivered a lopsided 9-3 victory to open this series last night as they notched their fifth straight win. The Tigers haven't dropped consecutive games against Minnesota since last year, holding their own over the last nine meetings in this series. I look for them to bounce back on Tuesday. Sonny Gray will get the start for Minnesota. He continues to pitch well with a sub-3.00 FIP on the season but he's been anything but untouchable, noting that he has given up 18 earned runs over his last five starts covering a span of 30 2/3 innings of work. The Tigers have already seen Gray once this season, chasing him after four innings in an 8-4 victory back on June 15th. Eduardo Rodriguez will counter for Detroit on Tuesday. After struggling through his first two starts this season, Rodriguez has now held 11 of his last 14 opponents to two earned runs or less. He checks in with a 3.27 ERA and 1.06 WHIP at home this season with the Tigers winning four of his seven starts at Comerica Park. While the Twins bullpen holds a slight edge in terms of current form there's not much separating the two relief corps this season. If anything, the Twins have had a tougher time closing out games with 26 saves converted and 21 blown compared to the Tigers 25 saves converted and 16 blown. Take Detroit (8*). |
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08-06-23 | Nationals v. Reds -145 | 6-3 | Loss | -145 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over Washington at 1:40 pm et on Sunday. The Reds have inexplicably fallen on hard times lately, dropping five straight games including the first two of this three-game set against the Nationals. They're hoping a fresh face can help turn their fortunes around as Lyon Richardson gets his first big league start on Sunday. Richardson has excelled at the minor league level, logging a 1.86 ERA while striking out 81 batters and walking only 23 in 58 innings of work this season. The Nationals bats have come alive in this series but this is still a team that averages only 4.2 runs per game against right-handed starting pitching this season. The fact that Washington will be sending Jake Irvin to the hill should help the Reds cause as well. They saw Irvin back on July 3rd, recording a 3-2 victory in Washington while producing three earned runs over six innings. Irvin wasn't really fooling anyone on that day as he struck out only three Reds batters. On the season, Irvin owns a 5.34 FIP and 1.43 WHIP. While the Nats are a perfect 3-0 in Irvin's last three outings, all three of those starts came at home. He has posted a 4.95 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in four road starts this season. Take Cincinnati (8*). |
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08-04-23 | Diamondbacks +117 v. Twins | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Diamondbacks are reeling off three straight losses against the division rival Giants in San Francisco. I look for them to bounce back on Friday as they hand the ball to Merrill Kelly against Bailey Ober of the Twins. Kelly has made two starts since returning from the injured list due to a blood clot in his calf. His first outing went smoothly but he ran into some trouble early before settling in against the Mariners last time out. All told, Kelly has recorded a 3.81 FIP and 1.16 WHIP this season. You would have to go back to early April to find the last time the D'Backs lost consecutive Kelly starts, a fate they'll look to avoid here. Behind Kelly is an Arizona bullpen that has posted a collective 2.14 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over the last seven games. Bailey Ober has given up 11 earned runs in 16 innings over his last three outings. He does own a 3.76 FIP and 1.04 WHIP on the campaign but the Twins are just an even 5-5 in his 10 home starts. Minnesota's bullpen has recorded a collective 5.11 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over the last seven games and has converted just 11 saves while blowing 10 at home this season. Take Arizona (8*). |
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08-03-23 | Twins -136 v. Cardinals | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota over St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Thursday. These two teams have split the first two games of this series and I expect the Twins to bounce back from last night's lopsided defeat to take the finale on Thursday. Sonny Gray will take the ball for Minnesota. The All-Star is quietly enjoying a fine campaign having logged a 2.93 FIP and 1.27 WHIP. He's been efficient but hasn't been overly taxed in recent starts, working 6, 6, 5 2/3, 6 and 6 innings over his last six outings. Matthew Liberatore gets the call-up to make Thursday's start for the Cardinals. He's a good example of a starting pitcher that has managed to climb the minor league ranks but has never been able to translate that success over to the bigs. Last year, he logged a 5.02 FIP and 1.73 WHIP in 34 2/3 innings of work. With a similar sample size of 32 innings this season, Liberatore has arguably been worse, posting a 4.68 FIP and 1.84 WHIP. Neither bullpen has been overly reliable lately but the difference is, the Cards relief corps has been bad for the majority of the season, entering last night's action sporting a collective 4.48 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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08-02-23 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -120 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Blue Jays are off to a rough start to this series. In fact, they've now lost three games in a row including an absolute beatdown in Hyun-Jin Ryu's return to the starting rotation last night. While I haven't always been high on Wednesday's starter Yusei Kikuchi, there's no denying he's pitched well this season and particularly of late. Kikuchi enters Wednesday's start having allowed just two earned runs over his last three outings, covering a span of 16 innings of work. Here at home, the Blue Jays have won six of his nine starts as Kikuchi has logged a solid 3.69 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. His counterpart on Wednesday, rookie Grayson Rodriguez, is coming off a fine outing of his own, shutting the Yankees out over 6 1/3 innings. It's not as if he had baffling stuff on that night as he recorded just four strikeouts along the way. Note that the Orioles bullpen has suffered some regression lately, posting a 1.57 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night's action). On the road this season, Baltimore has converted 18 saves but has also blown 14. Take Toronto (10*). |
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08-02-23 | Rays v. Yankees -105 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. Yankees losses have been few and far between with ace Gerrit Cole on the mound this season. They've only lost consecutive starts of his twice on the campaign - a fate they'll look to avoid after dropping a 1-0 decision against Baltimore in his most recent outing. Cole checks in sporting terrific numbers having logged a 3.25 FIP and 1.05 WHIP on the season. Over his last three starts, Cole sports a 1.40 ERA and 0.62 WHIP. The Rays will counter with their own ace in Shane McClanahan. He hasn't looked quite the same since returning from injury, recording a solid 3.34 ERA but a lofty 1.33 WHIP (by his own standards) over his last three starts. Since striking out seven or more batters in five of six starts during a stretch back in May, McClanahan has topped out at six K's over his last eight outings, reaching that number only twice along the way. With the bullpens more or less a wash (in fact the Yankees bullpen has performed better than that of the Rays lately), we'll confidently back the Yankees to avoid a fourth straight defeat here. Take New York (8*). |
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08-01-23 | Red Sox +110 v. Mariners | 6-4 | Win | 110 | 16 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Red Sox have now lost three games in a row but all three of those contests could have gone either way. I say that even as they dropped last night's game by a 6-2 score. That was a 1-1 tie until the Mariners broke things open in the eighth inning. Here, I look for Boston to bounce back behind Brayan Bello, who has quietly been one of their steadiest starters this season. Bello checks in with a 4.43 FIP and 1.21 WHIP on the campaign. I like how he's held his composure on the road, recording a 1.14 WHIP in 41 1/3 innings of work. His lone previous outing against the Mariners was a good one as he held them to one earned run over five innings in a 12-3 victory back on May 17th. Rookie Bryce Miller has lost his way over his last several starts for the Mariners. Note that he worked at least six innings in seven of his first nine starts this season but has now failed to last six frames in five straight outings. I'm willing to chalk up the Mariners late inning explosion against the Red Sox bullpen as an anomaly. Boston was down a number of key relief arms in that contest but should be back on track on Tuesday thanks to Nick Pivetta's lengthy start last night. Note that prior to last night's game, the Sox 'pen had logged a 1.96 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Boston (8*). |
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08-01-23 | Mets -144 v. Royals | 6-7 | Loss | -144 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Mets were sellers at the trade deadline so you could say the pressure is off now in what amounts to another lost season in Queens. I do think we see the Mets bounce back on Tuesday as they open a series in Kansas City. Jose Quintana will take the ball for New York. Few expected much from the veteran when he joined the starting rotation in late July but he has picked up right where he left off last season, allowing just four earned runs in 11 innings of work. In fact, you would have to go back 18 starts to find the last time Quintana allowed more than two earned runs in a start. Zack Greinke has been a disaster for the Royals this year. He owns a 5.06 FIP in 101 2/3 innings of work and things certainly haven't gotten any better lately as he has been tagged for 12 earned runs over his last three outings, covering a span of just 14 1/3 innings. The Mets bullpen has been worlds' better than that of the Royals over the last seven games and Kansas City's relief corps has combined to convert just five saves while blowing nine at home this season. Take New York (8*). |
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08-01-23 | Rays v. Yankees +106 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Yankees dropped their second straight game in lopsided fashion last night as they couldn't get anything going against Rays starter Tyler Glasnow. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday as they face Zach Eflin for the second time this season. Their first go-round against the right-hander saw them plate four earned runs over six innings but ultimately drop an 8-7 decision. That was in St. Petersburg. I still believe Yankees starter Carlos Rodon is a 'buy-on' pitcher down the stretch, even though he's struggled mightily with his command since returning to the starting rotation. The good news is, the Yankees did manage to win his most recent start as he worked around three walks to allow just one earned run over 5 2/3 innings in a 3-1 victory over the Mets. In two home starts this season, Rodon has yielded only three earned runs in 11 innings. That's in stark contrast to Eflin's road numbers as he has logged a 5.36 ERA and 1.28 WHIP away from home. Take New York (8*). |
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07-30-23 | Mariners v. Diamondbacks +102 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. The Diamondbacks evened this series at a game apiece with a come-from-behind 4-3 victory last night and I look for them to take the finale on Sunday as well. Luis Castillo has been somewhat snake-bitten for the Mariners, going winless in his last three starts despite pitching well. Run support has been an issue and I suspect it will be again on Sunday. On the flip side, the D'Backs have feasted on right-handed starting pitching this season, averaging 5.1 runs per game. Arizona will hand the ball to Merrill Kelly as he makes his second start since returning from the I.L. with a blood clot in his calf. He looked no worse for wear in his first outing back, allowing just one earned run on four hits over six innings against the Cardinals. On the season, he owns a 3.78 FIP and 1.13 WHIP. With last night's loss, the Mariners fell to 24-26 on the road this season. This is a key spot for the D'Backs as they'll hit the road for a seven-game trek following this matinee affair. Take Arizona (8*). |
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07-28-23 | Angels +172 v. Blue Jays | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Friday. It's going to take quite an effort to take down the Angels right now as they're playing about as well as any team in baseball, winners of eight of their last nine games overall. Newly-acquired Lucas Giolito will make his debut for Los Angeles on Friday. You have to imagine he's extremely pleased to get out of Chicago where the White Sox have been an absolute disaster. Giolito won't have to be an ace for the Halos but he does join the team pitching reasonably well, having allowed two earned runs or less in three of his last four outings. Behind Giolito is an Angels bullpen that has been lights out lately, logging a collective 2.05 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over the last seven games. Kevin Gausman will counter for Toronto on Friday. There's no denying he's pitched well this season, for the most part at least. He has had a tendency to have breakdowns, as we saw in his most recent start when he was tagged for four home runs against the Mariners. I simply feel he's going to have his hands full with an Angels lineup that has suddenly clicked, producing seven or more runs in seven of their last 11 games. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays bullpen has fallen on hard times, blowing four saves while converting only two over the last seven games alone, posting a collective 4.97 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over that stretch. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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07-25-23 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks -134 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
N.L. Game of the Week. My selection is on Arizona over St. Louis at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Cardinals snapped their three-game losing streak, taking the opener of this series in a 10-6 slugfest last night. That was a tough spot for the Diamondbacks as they limped home following a three-game sweep at the hands of the Reds, which came at the end of a long nine-game road trip that also took them to Toronto and Atlanta. While they'll be right back at it on Tuesday, I do expect the D'Backs to get a lift from the expected return of starter Merrill Kelly after he spent a month on the I.L. due to a blood clot in his leg. Kelly himself indicated that it was only a minor speedbump as he was able to continue to throw from day one. He dealt with a far more serious blood clot that led to the removal of a rib back in 2020. Of course, the right-hander is having a career year by most accounts, logging a 3.85 FIP and 1.14 WHIP while allowing a career-low 6.7 hits per nine innings and striking out a career high 9.3 batters per nine innings. Arizona's bullpen has struggled lately but I still feel this is a relief corps in fine shape down the stretch having worked only 353 2/3 innings collectively (entering last night's action) this season. Steven Matz will counter for St. Louis. He was sharp in his most recent outing against the Cubs last Thursday but will now be starting on short rest (four days) for a second straight turn in the rotation. On the season, Matz owns a 4.12 FIP and 1.47 WHIP, yielding 10.0 hits per nine innings. The Cards bullpen has been virtually on par with that of the D'Backs this season. Of note, they've had a tough time closing out games, blowing 20 saves including 11 on the road (compared to 14 saves converted). It's also worth mentioning that St. Louis hasn't had a day off since the All-Star break and checks in 1-5 after scoring double-digit runs in its previous game this season. Take Arizona (10*). |
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07-24-23 | Mariners v. Twins +104 | 3-4 | Win | 104 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Seattle at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Mariners have managed to win three of their last four games including taking two of three against the Blue Jays over the weekend. I'm not convinced the needle is pointing up for Seattle right now, however. The Twins are coming off three-game sweep of the White Sox. They'll give Kenta Maeda the start on Monday while the Mariners hand the ball to Luis Castillo. Maeda has settled in nicely since returning from the injured list in late June, allowing two earned runs or less in four of his last five starts. He was sharp against the Mariners last week as he held them to two earned runs on three hits while striking out nine over 6 1/3 innings of work. His counterpart on Monday, Luis Castillo, has looked very ordinary lately, allowing 21 earned runs over 47 2/3 innings in his last eight starts. Castillo has been tagged for exactly two home runs in five of his last six starts. The Twins should be happy to see him noting that the right-hander owns a 6.88 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in four career starts against them. While the Twins bullpen has thrived with a very manageable workload (23 innings) over the last seven games, recording a 2.35 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, the Mariners relief corps has struggled, posting a collective 4.97 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in 25 1/3 innings over that same stretch. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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07-19-23 | Yankees -130 v. Angels | 3-7 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Yankees are suddenly sliding having lost three games in a row entering Wednesday's series-finale against the Angels in Anaheim. I do think they have the right starter on the mound to end their skid in Carlos Rodon. The left-hander has made two starts since returning from the I.L., with mixed results. I do think we saw progress from Rodon in his most recent outing as he struck out six in just five innings in Colorado after recording only two K's in 5 1/3 innings in his season debut at home against the Cubs. Rodon should be pleased to be pitching here in Anaheim, where he's made two career starts, allowing just four earned runs in 15 2/3 innings of work. The Angels check in just 9-17 against left-handed starting pitching this season. Chase Silseth will get a spot start for Los Angeles, giving Shohei Ohtani an extra day of rest before likely starting on Friday against Pittsburgh. Silseth has yet to prove he can succeed at the big league level, despite finding plenty of success in the minors. In 18 2/3 innings of work this season he has posted a 5.87 FIP and 1.61 WHIP. Last year, Silseth logged 28 2/3 innings, recording a very similar 5.97 FIP and 1.57 WHIP. While the Angels bullpen held up just fine last night, it entered that contest sporting a collective 8.91 ERA and 2.14 WHIP over the last seven contests. While Los Angeles has posted consecutive victories, it hasn't won three games in a row since June 11th to 13th. Meanwhile, the Yankees haven't dropped four straight contests since June 14th to 18th. Take New York (8*). |
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07-18-23 | Yankees -105 v. Angels | 1-5 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Angels prevailed in the opener of this series last night, handing the Yankees their second straight loss. I look for New York to bounce back on Tuesday as it sends Domingo German to the hill against Patrick Sandoval of the Angels. German is of course just two starts removed from tossing a perfect game in Oakland. After getting predictably roughed up in his next start against Baltimore, he rebounded to hold the Cubs to just one earned run on one hit over six innings on July 9th. On the season, German has been an interesting study with a 4.63 FIP but a 1.07 WHIP. Opposing hitters certainly aren't getting a great read on the right-hander having compiled just 6.9 hits per nine innings. It's been a much different story for Sandoval as he has allowed 9.5 hits per nine innings, leading to a 3.96 FIP and 1.47 WHIP. His walks per nine innings allowed are up while his strikeouts are down considerably compared to last year. Behind Sandoval is an Angels bullpen that has suffered considerable regression lately, entering last night's action sporting a lofty 9.90 ERA and 2.23 WHIP over the last seven games. The Yankees 'pen has been in poor form as well but still owns a collective 3.09 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 14 saves converted and only four blown on the road this season. Take New York (8*). |
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07-17-23 | Nationals v. Cubs -136 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -136 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Chicago over Washington at 8:05 pm et on Monday. Despite his recent struggles, I think this is the right spot to bring potential trade deadline piece Drew Smyly back to the starting rotation for the Cubs. He hasn't pitched since July 8th when he was rocked by the Yankees in the Bronx - his third straight poor outing. Still, we know the veteran left-hander is capable of much better and he should be happy to be facing the Nationals on Monday - a team he held to one earned run over seven innings in a 5-1 victory against earlier this season. In fact, for his career, Smyly owns a 3.00 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in seven previous outings against Washington. It's a much different story for Nationals starter MacKenzie Gore against the Cubs. He checks in sporting a career 7.00 ERA and 1.78 WHIP, albeit in just two previous starts against Chicago. The Cubs have feasted on left-handed starting pitching this season, going 16-11 while averaging 5.6 runs per game. While Gore has managed to lower his walks and increase his strikeouts per nine innings compared to his rookie campaign last year, he's giving up far too many hits (9.2 per nine innings) and home runs (1.4 per nine innings). The Nationals bullpen has been a mess all season, compiling a 5.09 ERA and 1.47 WHIP and things don't figure to get better with Hunter Harvey, who had grabbed the closer's role converting nine saves, expected to hit the I.L. with a forearm injury. Cubs closer Adbert Alzolay was pressed into action yesterday in a non-save situation and didn't fare particularly well but that appearance was by design to get him loose after an idle stretch. I'm confident he can bounce back if called into the game on Monday. While the Cubs 'pen hasn't pitched particularly well lately, it is still well-positioned to succeed having logged only 21 2/3 innings collectively over the last seven games. At home this season, Chicago relievers have combined to post a 3.86 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Take Chicago (10*). |
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07-09-23 | Braves v. Rays -112 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Atlanta at 1:40 pm et on Sunday. The Rays have now lost seven straight games including the first two contests in this series. I do expect them to finally snap their skid on Sunday as they send Zach Eflin to the hill against Bryce Elder of the Braves. Eflin has been terrific this season, logging a 3.09 FIP and 0.98 WHIP to go along with a 9-4 record - Cy Young Award-caliber numbers. He should be happy to be facing the Braves - an opponent he saw plenty of during his days pitching for the Phillies in the N.L. East. Note that Eflin owns a 3.26 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 13 career outings against Atlanta. Bryce Elder is having an outstanding season for the Braves as well. With that being said, I do think there has been some reason for concern (I use that term loosely) noting that he has issued eight walks over his last three starts and is coming off an outing in which he struck out only one batter over 6 2/3 innings against the Guardians. The Rays offense has been completely out of sorts but we do know what their lineup is capable of, noting they still average 5.4 runs per game this season. The two bullpens are virtually a wash on the season. While the Braves relief corps has been more effective lately, it is worth noting that the Rays were able to keep most of their key relievers idle thanks to Saturday's lopsided result. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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07-06-23 | Cubs v. Brewers -105 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
N.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. The Cubs have taken the last two games in this series after dropping the opener on Monday. I look for Milwaukee to answer back in Thursday's series finale. Marcus Stroman will get the start for Chicago. We've seen some regression from the right-hander after a red hot start to the campaign as he has allowed eight earned runs on 13 hits over his last two outings spanning just nine innings of work. That's to be expected. Stroman has allowed only 6.7 hits per nine innings this season. He hasn't held opposing batters to fewer than 8.0 hits per nine innings since way back in his sophomore season in 2015 and that was an injury-shortened one (he worked only 27 innings). He has admittedly shut the door on the Brewers in three starts against them since the start of last season but here he'll be starting on short rest (four days) and even if he does pitch well there's no guarantee the Cubs up-and-down bullpen can close it out. Note that normally reliable setup man Mark Leiter Jr. has allowed four earned runs in his last two appearances and closer Adbert Alzolay has pitched in each of the last two games and may not be available as a result on Thursday. Freddy Peralta will counter for Milwaukee. He figures to be in line for some positive regression, noting that he has given up 8.1 hits per nine innings - his highest total since the 2019 campaign. The Brewers have actually lost Peralta's last two starts. They haven't lost three Peralta starts in a row since last August. We've seen encouraging signs out of the right-hander lately as he has yielded four hits or less in four straight starts and struck out at least eight batters in three of his last five trips to the hill. That comes on the heels of a stretch that saw him strike out five batters or fewer in five consecutive outings. The Brewers bullpen has admittedly struggled lately, entering last night's contest sporting a 5.11 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over the last seven games but has been reliable for the most part this season, converting 25 saves while blowing only 10. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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07-03-23 | Astros v. Rangers -110 | 12-11 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Houston at 2:05 pm et on Monday. The Astros have taken two of the first three games of this series but I look for the Rangers to earn a split in Monday's series-finale. Cristian Javier will get the start for Houston. He hasn't seemed quite right lately as he checks in having allowed at least four earned runs in three of his last four starts. Over that stretch he struck out just six batters in 17 2/3 innings of work. We've certainly seen some regression from Javier this season as he enters sporting a 4.10 FIP after logging a sparkling 3.16 FIP last year. Note that Javier is also allowing a career-high 8.0 walks per nine innings after yielding an unsustainable 6.0 or less over each of his first three big league seasons. Finally I'll note that Javier will be starting on just four days' rest on Monday. Martin Perez will counter for Texas. He'll make his second straight start on full rest after holding the Tigers to just two earned runs on four hits over six innings in an 8-3 Rangers victory last week. Perez hasn't necessarily enjoyed a banner year to this point, posting a 4.86 FIP and 1.42 WHIP in 16 starts. Those numbers have a lot to do with a rocky start to the season, however. He enters this outing having held six of his last eight opponents to two earned runs or less, working at least six innings in six of those starts as well. The Astros do hold a slight edge in terms of the bullpens but the Rangers do come in in fairly good shape having entered yesterday's game having logged only 18 2/3 relief innings over the last seven games and 12 fewer innings than the Astros relief corps on the season. Take Texas (8*). |
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06-30-23 | Diamondbacks v. Angels -147 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -147 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles over Arizona at 9:35 pm et on Friday. Something has to give in this one as both the Diamondbacks and Angels are coming off consecutive losses. I like Los Angeles to bounce back as it hands the ball to Griffin Canning against Tommy Henry of Arizona. Henry has inexplicably posted a perfect 6-0 team record over his last six starts. I say inexplicably because he still owns a lofty 5.44 FIP and 1.37 WHIP this season. The D'Backs bats have been bailing him out but I believe they'll be hard-pressed to do so on Friday. Note that Henry's poor overall numbers this season have been virtually on par with the ones he posted during his rookie campaign last year (5.88 FIP and 1.45 WHIP in 47 innings pitched). Behind Henry is a D'Backs bullpen that has been good but certainly not great this season. Arizona's relief corps enters this series sporting a collective 4.36 ERA and 1.29 WHIP on the road this season. Griffin Canning got off to a bit of a shaky start this season but perhaps that was to be expected after he missed the entire 2022 campaign due to a back injury. Canning has certainly rounded into form lately, pitching as well as he has at any point during his big league career, allowing just nine earned runs in 36 innings of work over his last six starts to lower his FIP to 4.53 and his WHIP to 1.16. The Angels have handled Canning the right way this season, allowing him to pitch on full rest (five days or more) in all 12 starts. While Los Angeles' bullpen has suffered some regression lately, it still owns a collective 3.71 ERA and 1.30 WHIP on the season with 28 saves converted and only 13 blown (entering yesterday's action). Closer Carlos Estevez has been kept idle over the last two games so he should be good to go on Friday if needed. He has racked up 20 saves already this season while posting a 1.91 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 33 innings. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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06-28-23 | White Sox +108 v. Angels | 11-5 | Win | 108 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. The White Sox have dropped the first two games in this series as their bats have gone silent against the Angels pitching staff. I do think they're set up well to avoid a third straight loss on Wednesday, however, as they hand the ball to Lucas Giolito against Jaime Barria of the Angels. Giolito is enjoying a bit of a renaissance season after a down year in 2022. His hits and walks allowed were up considerably last year and as a result his WHIP hovered around 1.44. This year, he's lowered that WHIP to 1.20 with his FIP sitting at 4.19. Giolito certainly brings solid form into this outing as he has allowed just four earned runs in 24 innings of work over his last four starts. He should be pleased to be facing the Angels as he owns a 3-1 record with a 3.97 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in eight career outings against them. Behind Giolito is a White Sox bullpen that has logged a respectable 3.67 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over the last seven games. The Angels relief corps, meanwhile, has posted a collective 4.32 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over the same stretch and used two of its key bullpen arms in Jacob Webb and closer Carlos Estevez in each of the first two games in this series. As I mentioned, Jaime Barria will get his fifth spot start of the season for the Angels. He has fared reasonably well with a 3.69 FIP and 1.06 WHIP across 16 outings spanning 46 1/3 innings this season. In fact, the Angels have won all four of his starts this season. I'm not convinced some of his numbers are sustainable, however, as he has allowed just 6.8 hits and 0.8 home runs per nine innings. Note that over the course of his big league career, Barria has yielded 8.5 hits and 1.4 home runs per nine innings. This will be his second start against the White Sox this season and while the Halos won his first by a 12-3 score, Barria wasn't exactly dominant, allowing four hits and three walks while striking out six over five innings. Take Chicago (8*). |
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06-23-23 | Braves -150 v. Reds | Top | 10-11 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Atlanta over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Friday. Something has to give as the red hot Braves and Reds match up in Cincinnati on Friday. Atlanta has reeled off eight straight wins following yesterday's extra innings victory in Philadelphia. Cincinnati is riding an 11-game winning streak after a sweep of the lowly Rockies. Here, I look for the Braves to continue their winning ways as they hand the ball to impressive rookie A.J. Smith-Shawver against Luke Weaver of the Reds. Atlanta appears to have another good one in Smith-Shawver. He has made two big league starts this season, posting a lofty 4.47 FIP but an impressive 0.98 WHIP. That FIP is a little inflated after he gave up a pair of home runs in an 8-3 win over the Rockies last time out. Note that Smith-Shawver had allowed just one home run in 33 innings of work at the minor league level earlier this season. In those minor league outings he posted a sparkling 1.09 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. It's been a much different story for Luke Weaver. He checks in sporting a 5.48 FIP and 1.54 WHIP in 11 starts spanning 57 innings this season. On Friday, he'll be starting on short rest (four days) after getting lit up for 10 hits and five earned runs in five innings against the Astros last time out. Great American Ballpark hasn't been a good fit as he has logged a 7.27 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in five starts covering a span of 26 innings here this season. While the two bullpens are virtually a wash, it's worth noting that the Reds relief corps is approaching 300 combined innings pitched this season. That's nearly 30 innings more than that of the Braves. Atlanta has the benefit of having had two of the last four days off due to a rain out earlier this week. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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06-22-23 | Mariners +105 v. Yankees | 10-2 | Win | 105 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Yankees have taken the first two games of this series, successfully bouncing back following a sweep at the hands of the Red Sox last weekend. I look for the Mariners to answer back on Thursday as they send Bryan Woo to the mound against Domingo German. Woo is anything but a household name but has impressed in three big league starts this season, posting a 3.68 FIP and 1.30 WHIP. Last time out he struck out a career-high nine batters over just 5 2/3 innings in a 3-2 victory over the White Sox. Note that Woo got the call-up after logging a 2.05 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 44 innings pitched at the Double-A level earlier this season. While pitching at Yankees Stadium can be daunting for an unseasoned starter, I do think Woo has had enough time to get the nerves out (note that he was tagged for six earned runs in just two innings in Texas in his 'Welcome to the Show' moment earlier this month). Behind Woo is a Mariners bullpen that continues to pitch well. Seattle's relief corps has combined to post a 2.53 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over the last seven games. Domingo German has had an up-and-down campaign to this point. While he has managed to record an impressive 1.09 WHIP, his 4.64 FIP tells a much different story. That low WHIP has a lot to do with good fortune as he's allowed just 6.8 hits per nine innings. Note that German has never allowed fewer than 7.9 hits per nine innings in a full big league season. The Yankees prevailed by a 10-4 score in German's lone previous start against Seattle this year, that coming back on May 29th. Keep in mind, the Mariners did plate four earned runs on seven hits while walking three times and striking out on only four occasions over 6 1/3 innings. New York's bullpen has been somewhat overworked this season - certainly in comparison with that of the Mariners (the Yankees have logged just shy of 37 more bullpen innings this season). Yankee relievers have combined to post a 5.04 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over the last seven contests. Here at home they've converted only nine saves while blowing seven. Take Seattle (8*). |
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06-21-23 | Dodgers v. Angels -144 | 2-0 | Loss | -144 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the Angels over the Dodgers at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Dodgers took the opener of this brief two-game series by a 2-0 score behind another solid outing from Clayton Kershaw last night. I expect the Angels to bounce back on Wednesday as they hand the ball to Shohei Ohtani against Michael Grove of the Dodgers. Grove has posted terrific numbers at the minor league level over the last couple of seasons. It hasn't translated to success in the bigs, however. Last season, Grove logged a 5.16 FIP and 1.43 WHIP in 29 1/3 innings of work with the Dodgers. So far this year, he has pitched 30 innings with the big club, recording a 5.75 FIP and 1.60 WHIP. Of the 137 batters he has faced, 49 have managed to reach base. Behind Grove is a Dodgers bullpen that continues to struggle, having posted a collective 5.01 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the season with those numbers ballooning to 7.37 and 1.48, respectively, over the last seven games. Shohei Ohtani hasn't been able to match the Cy Young Award-caliber numbers he posted last season but has still been effective this season, logging a 4.07 FIP and 1.05 WHIP. His command hasn't quite been there with his walks issued up considerably over last year. With that being said, he has limited two of his last three opponents to just a single walk (working six innings in both of those contests). He'll have the advantage of facing the Dodgers for the first time on Wednesday. As I've noted on multiple occasions this season, the Angels bullpen has impressed, recording a collective 3.59 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with 27 saves converted and only 12 blown. They've also logged just 20 innings over the last seven games, leaving them in good position on Wednesday. Take the Angels (8*). |
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06-21-23 | Red Sox v. Twins -120 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Minnesota over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Red Sox have blasted the Twins in the first two games of this series as Minnesota's struggles continue having dropped five of its last six contests. I look for the Twins to finally answer back on Wednesday as they send Sonny Gray to the hill against Garrett Whitlock. Whitlock has posted solid overall numbers this season but certainly isn't immune to shaky outings. Note that he has given up at least four earned runs in three of his seven starts this season. He checks in having allowed just three earned runs over his last two starts but hasn't held more than two straight opponents to three earned runs or fewer since May of last year. Sonny Gray didn't have his best stuff last time out, lasting only four earned runs against the Tigers in an eventual 8-4 loss. He still owns a stellar 2.56 FIP and 1.28 WHIP in 14 starts spanning 76 innings of work this season. In eight home outings he has logged a 1.96 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Gray gave up just one earned run over five innings in his lone start against Boston last season but the Twins lost that game by a 5-4 score. The two bullpens are a virtual wash in this matchup although it is worth noting that Minnesota entered last night's game having logged 28 2/3 innings fewer in relief this season, theoretically leaving that group fresher as we approach the final week of June. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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06-20-23 | Mets v. Astros -127 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston over New York at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. This should be an emotionally-charged contest on Tuesday in Houston as Justin Verlander returns to Minute Maid Park to face his former team. The Mets jumped all over Astros rookie Hunter Brown last night but I expect a different story to unfold against Framber Valdez on Tuesday. Valdez checks in sporting a sparkling 2.84 FIP and 1.03 WHIP in 14 starts spanning 91 innings of work this season. He faced the Mets once last season, tossing eight shutout innings in a 9-1 victory in Queens. Verlander is having a very un-Verlander like season, posting a 4.43 FIP and 1.22 WHIP in 45 innings. His hits, home runs and walks allowed per nine innings are way up while his strikeouts are down considerably compared to his Cy Young Award-winning 2022 campaign. Whether he's 100% healthy or not is certainly up for debate. I do expect the slumping Astros to get to him on Tuesday. The bullpens are virtually a wash in this matchup but I do like the fact that Houston's 'pen entered last night's game having logged a collective 24 innings fewer than New York's this season. Interestingly, the Astros relief corps entered this series with a 3.10 ERA and 1.13 WHIP along with five saves converted and only one blown in just north of 80 innings pitched in Interleague play this season. Take Houston (10*). |
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06-19-23 | Cubs -117 v. Pirates | Top | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
N.L. Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago over Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Cubs failed to complete the sweep of the Orioles yesterday, snapping their five-game winning streak in the process. I look for them to bounce back on Monday as they hand the ball to Drew Smyly against Osvaldo Bido of the Pirates in a rematch of a meeting last week. Smyly doesn't own terrific career numbers against the Pirates but he should he pleased to be making this start in Pittsburgh. Note that he has faced the Pirates three times at PNC Park, allowing just four earned runs including only one home run in 16 innings. Smyly's numbers this season are in line with the ones he posted last year, logging a 4.33 FIP and 1.20 WHIP. I do think we'll see him pitch better than he did against the Pirates last week, when he yielded five earned runs over six innings. Osvaldo Bido gets the call for Pittsburgh out of necessity only. He actually held up well in his big league debut against the Cubs last week, allowing just one earned run over four innings. Note that he's been in the Pirates organization since 2017 so the fact that he's just now getting a chance in the Show is telling in my opinion. At the Triple-A level this season he had posted a 4.55 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 55 1/3 innings of work. Only once previously has he recorded an ERA lower than four in a minor league campaign and that was back in 2019 when he pitched at the Single-A and A+ levels. The bullpens are virtually a was on the season but the Cubs relief corps has been marginally better over the last seven games (Pittsburgh's 'pen entered yesterday's contest sporting a collective 9.85 ERA and 1.95 WHIP over that stretch). I do like the fact that Chicago didn't use two of its most effective relievers in Mark Leiter Jr. and Adbert Alzolay in yesterday's game. The Pirates are missing a key late inning arm in Jose Hernandez as he's currently on the I.L. Take Chicago (10*). |
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06-17-23 | Guardians -123 v. Diamondbacks | 3-6 | Loss | -123 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Arizona at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. The Diamondbacks took the opener of this series last night as Zac Gallen turned in another fine pitching performance in an eventual 5-1 victory. I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday as Cleveland hands the ball to its own ace, Shane Bieber, against Tommy Henry of Arizona. Bieber hasn't exactly posted Cy Young Award-caliber numbers this season but has been solid nonetheless, logging a 3.82 FIP and 1.22 WHIP in 14 starts spanning 87 2/3 innings of work. He was lights out over seven innings despite pitching on short rest (four days) in his most recent outing. Here, he'll be back on regular rest against a D'Backs team that he handled without much trouble last season, allowing two earned runs over six innings. Tommy Henry may not be long for a big league rotation given the results he's posted over the last season-plus. Henry sports a 5.62 FIP and 1.38 WHIP in 50 innings this season after posting a 5.88 FIP and 1.45 WHIP in 47 innings last year. Note that he'll be starting on just four days' rest on Saturday. The last time we saw him do that he was tagged for four earned runs in just 4 2/3 innings against the lowly A's on May 16th. The Guardians hold a significant edge in terms of the bullpens, entering last night's action sporting a collective 1.99 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over the last seven contests. Arizona's 'pen entered Friday's action having recorded a 4.71 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Cleveland (8*). |
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06-15-23 | Guardians +124 v. Padres | Top | 8-6 | Win | 124 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland over San Diego at 8:40 pm et on Thursday. The Padres have won the first two games of this series and are playing some of their best baseball of the season right now but I'm not necessarily ready to buy in. Logan Allen will get the start for the visiting Guardians as they look to avoid the sweep in this three-game interleague series. Allen didn't pitch particularly well but hung in there and lasted six innings against the Astros in an eventual 10-9 victory last time out. He has posted respectable numbers this season with a 3.43 FIP and 1.39 WHIP through nine starts spanning 51 2/3 innings. Ryan Weathers will counter for the Padres as they push Yu Darvish back a day to face the Rays on Friday. Weathers owns a 4.93 ERA on the campaign and probably hasn't even been as good as that lofty number, posting a 5.26 FIP and 1.49 WHIP. He's unlikely to work deep into this game as he pitches on just four days' rest (even though he did throw only 40+ pitches against the Rockies last time out). Note that the Padres bullpen enters this game sporting a collective 4.94 ERA And 1.31 WHIP over the last seven contests. At home this season, San Diego has only converted five saves while blowing four. The Guardians on the other hand check in with a 1.82 bullpen ERA and 1.01 WHIP over their last seven games. Cleveland's relief corps has been among the best in baseball this season, logging a 3.02 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with 23 saves converted and 13 blown. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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06-12-23 | Angels v. Rangers -150 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
A.L. Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas over Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Angels took two of three games from the Mariners over the weekend and certainly enter this series playing well. I think they're going to be outmatched on Monday, however, as they send Tyler Anderson to the hill against Dane Dunning of the Rangers. Anderson has seen his FIP rise to 5.14 and his WHIP to 1.60 after allowing 10 earned runs in nine innings in his last two starts. He's allowing a whopping 10.0 hits and 4.4 walks per nine innings this season and while he's done a good job of keeping the ball in the park (1.0 home runs allowed per nine innings) that's not enough to minimize the damage, especially when you're striking out only 5.9 batters per nine frames. The Angels bullpen has been terrific but is approaching 'overworked' territory in my opinion as their relief corps eclipses 240 innings on the season. Dane Dunning is coming off a couple of rough outings of his own, giving up an uncharacteristic three home runs in his most recent start. Still, he owns a solid 3.72 FIP and 1.10 WHIP in 14 starts including six starts this season. While the Rangers bullpen has been up and down, it has logged a collective 1.16 WHIP in 99 innings of work here at home. In stark contrast to the Angels 'pen, the Rangers relief corps has only been called into action for 192 1/3 innings on the campaign. Take Texas (10*). |
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06-11-23 | Cubs v. Giants -135 | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Chicago at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Cubs have taken a pair of low-scoring affairs to open this series but I look for the Giants to answer back on Sunday. Hayden Wesneski will get the start for Chicago. He's had an up-and-down start to the season but perhaps with more downs than ups, logging a 5.64 FIP and 1.22 WHIP. In his return to the starting rotation last time out he labored through 4 2/3 innings in an eventual 7-4 loss to the Angels in Anaheim. I'm generally high on the Cubs bullpen - at least a couple of their key relief arms anyway - but the numbers indicate otherwise as they've recorded a collective 4.85 ERA and 1.42 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night's action). John Brebbia will get another spot start for the Giants. He's been effective in 27 appearances, including six starts this season, posting a 2.60 FIP and 1.05 WHIP. Of course any time Brebbia starts, the Giants bullpen is key as he's unlikely to work deep into the contest. Note that San Francisco's relief corps has logged a 1.93 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over the last seven games (also entering last night's action). Take San Francisco (8*). |
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06-09-23 | Cubs +105 v. Giants | 3-2 | Win | 105 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over San Francisco at 10:15 pm et on Friday. The Cubs haven't won a game since Marcus Stroman last took the ball last Sunday in San Diego. I look for the right-hander to help them snap their skid on Friday as they open a series in San Francisco. Stroman has been terrific so far this season, logging a 3.49 FIP and 1.00 WHIP, allowing only 81-of-309 batters he has faced to reach base. His two outings against the Giants last season were a mixed bag but he did toss six shutout innings in his lone start here in San Francisco. The Cubs bullpen has struggled as a whole but does boast a few redeemable arms that should be in line to pitch on Friday. On a positive note, Chicago's 'pen has only been called into action for 18 2/3 innings over the last seven games. In stark contrast, the Giants bullpen has been severely overworked, logging a collective 29 2/3 innings over the last seven games and 241 innings this season. Anthony DeSclafani will get the start for the Giants on Friday. While he does own solid overall numbers on the season, they've been on the rise lately as he has allowed 12 earned runs over his last three outings, covering a span of 15 innings. The Giants have only managed to win two of his last six starts. Take Chicago (8*). |
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06-07-23 | Mariners +104 v. Padres | 3-10 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over San Diego at 4:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Mariners are a team I want to bet on in the coming weeks while the Padres look like a solid fade moving forward. Here, we can back Seattle at an underdog price (at the time of writing) with a significant edge in terms of the starting pitching matchup. George Kirby will take the ball for the Mariners. He has posted Cy Young Award-caliber numbers so far this season, logging a 3.27 FIP and 1.01 WHIP. He'll have the benefit of starting on six days' rest on Wednesday after shutting the Yankees down over eight shutout innings last week. Michael Wacha will counter for the Padres. He was brought back to Earth in his most recent start, lasting only 4 2/3 innings in a loss to the Cubs. With a 3.72 FIP and 1.15 WHIP I do feel that Wacha is in line for some regression, noting that he hasn't posted a full-season FIP lower than 4.14 since 2017. A number of current Mariners hitters have enjoyed considerable success against Wacha as well, including Teoscar Hernandez and Ty France who are a combined 14-for-22 against the right-hander. The Padres bullpen has outpaced that of the Mariners lately but are entering 'overworked' territory, having not had a day off since May 29th. Seattle's 'pen still owns solid numbers on the season with a 3.64 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, converting 15 saves while blowing only seven. Take Seattle (8*). |
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06-05-23 | Astros +110 v. Blue Jays | Top | 11-4 | Win | 110 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
American League Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Blue Jays are coming off an impressive three-game sweep of the Mets in Queens over the weekend but I look for their run of success to come to an end on Monday as they return home to host the Astros. Houston checks in off a 2-1 loss against the Angels yesterday, failing to complete the four-game sweep of its division rival. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Astros bounce back against Blue Jays starter Alek Manoah, who continues to grind through a miserable campaign. Manoah last pitched last Wednesday and showed no signs of turning things around, lasting only four innings in an eventual 4-2 defeat. Now Manoah will have to start on short rest (four days) having posted a lofty 6.27 FIP and 1.77 WHIP in 12 starts spanning 57 2/3 innings of work this season. While the Jays 'pen behind Manoah has been terrific lately, I'm not sure it will be enough on this night. Brandon Bielak will get the start for the visiting Astros. He got shelled in his first couple of big league starts this season but has since settled down, allowing only 13 hits and six earned runs in his last three starts, spanning 17 1/3 innings. While Bielak certainly hasn't been as good as his 3.19 ERA indicates (he's posted a 5.15 FIP and 1.45 WHIP), I do think he can be effective against the up-and-down Blue Jays. While the Astros bullpen has struggled lately, it still owns a collective 3.30 ERA and 1.26 WHIP this season with 16 saves converted and only five blown. Take Houston (10*). |
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06-04-23 | Cubs -104 v. Padres | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over San Diego at 5:30 pm et on Sunday. We've made a bit of a habit of fading Padres starter Ryan Weathers and we'll do the same here as the Cubs look to bounce back from last night's shutout loss in San Diego. Marcus Stroman has impressed for Chicago this season, logging a 3.55 FIP and 0.99 WHIP in 12 starts spanning 73 innings of work. While the Cubs bullpen behind him has struggled lately, this is still a relief corps I do have some faith in and the majority of their key arms should be in line to work on Sunday. Weathers checks in with a 4.48 FIP and 1.37 WHIP. The Padres did win his most recent start but that was really no thanks to Weathers as he allowed three earned runs on seven hits over just four innings against the Marlins. While the Padres bullpen has posted solid numbers overall, it has had a tough time closing out games, already blowing 10 saves this season. Here at home, San Diego has converted four saves while blowing four as well. Take Chicago (8*). |
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06-03-23 | Yankees -122 v. Dodgers | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Los Angeles at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. The Dodgers took the opener of this series last night but I look for New York to answer back on Saturday. Gerrit Cole will take the ball for the visiting Yankees. He's been roughed up in his last two outings but still owns terrific overall numbers this season with a 3.69 FIP and 1.14 WHIP. I can't help but feel the Dodgers bats are in for some regression after scoring six runs or more in six straight games heading into this contest. Los Angeles will counter with Michael Grove. He'll be making his fifth start this season and the results have been a mixed bag. Grove owns an ugly 8.44 ERA but has been better than that lofty number, sporting a 4.65 FIP. That's not saying he's pitched well, however, noting that he checks in with a 1.75 WHIP. As I noted in my analysis of last night's game, the bullpens are virtually a wash in this matchup, however, the Yankees 'pen has been pitching far better recent, entering last night's contest with a collective 1.82 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over the last seven games while the Dodgers 'pen recorded an ERA north of five over the same stretch. Take New York (8*). |
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06-02-23 | Yankees v. Dodgers -136 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles over New York at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Dodgers dropped their most recent contest in Washington but I look for them to rebound in Friday's series-opener against the Yankees. New York will give the start to Luis Severino. He checks in sporting a sparkling 1.59 ERA in two starts, spanning 11 1/3 innings. He hasn't been quite as sharp as that number indicates, however, as he has recorded a 3.73 FIP. In two minor league rehab outings, Severino logged a 4.05 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 6 2/3 innings. Clayton Kershaw will counter for Los Angeles. He'll be looking to bounce back after a string of rough outings but still owns a 3.42 FIP and 1.14 WHIP in 11 outings spanning 62 1/3 innings this season. He'll be making his second straight on a full five days' rest. The Yankees bullpen appears to have the edge although it is worth noting that the Dodgers bullpen has been significantly stronger at home than on the road, logging a collective 3.14 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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06-02-23 | Mariners -113 v. Rangers | 0-2 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams enjoyed a day off yesterday but will be back at it for the start of this three-game divisional series on Friday. The Mariners will hand the ball to Luis Castillo. He checks in sporting a 2.93 FIP and 0.99 WHIP this season. Over his last two outings he's tossed 12 shutout innings, striking out 18 and walking only four along the way. Jon Gray will counter for Texas. He checks in sporting a 2.81 ERA but I don't think he's been quite as good as that ERA indicates, recording a 4.64 FIP in 10 starts, spanning 57 2/3 innings of work this season. There's no question Gray has been terrific over his last seven outings but I do think he's running out of real estate in his current five-start undefeated streak. Prior to that he owned a 1-11 team record over his last 12 outings. The two bullpens are virtually a wash, although it is worth noting that Texas has had a bit of a tough time closing out games this season, converting 10 saves but also blowing eight. Take Seattle (8*). |
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05-31-23 | Yankees v. Mariners -133 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
American League Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle over New York at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Yankees have taken the first two games in this series in blowout fashion but I look for the Mariners to answer back on Wednesday. Clarke Schmidt has turned things around to a certain extent for the Yankees over the last couple of starts, allowing just three earned runs in 10 innings of work. He still owns a 4.25 FIP and 1.60 WHIP on the season. Of the 229 batters he has faced, 82 have reached base. The Mariners will counter with George Kirby. He got shelled in his most recent outing. It happens to the best of pitchers. That doesn't change the fact that he has pitched well this season, logging a 3.49 FIP and 1.10 WHIP, allowing just 71-of-254 batters to reach base. As a testament to how impressive he has been, Kirby has worked at least six innings in eight of his 10 starts this season. The bullpens are virtually a wash but I'm confident the Mariners can pick themselves back up at the plate and snap their two-game skid, noting they've lost more than two games in a row only once since April 30th. Take Seattle (10*). |
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05-28-23 | Blue Jays v. Twins +102 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
American League Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota over Toronto at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. The Blue Jays took the opener of this series by a 3-1 score on Friday but the Twins bounced back in a big way yesterday, delivering a 9-7 victory in a contest that probably wasn't quite as close as the final score indicated (the Blue Jays scored three runs in the ninth inning). Both teams have been scuffing their heels lately but I like the Twins chances of ending their current homestand on a positive note before heading off to Houston to open a three-game set on Monday. Jose Berrios will take the ball as he makes his fifth career start against his former team. Since joining the Blue Jays, Berrios has posted a 2-2 team record against Minnesota but has gone 0-2 here in the Twin Cities. While Berrios has enjoyed a solid bounce-back campaign so far, posting a 3.76 FIP and 1.22 WHIP, I don't particularly like the set-up here. He'll be starting on short rest (four days) for a third straight turn in the rotation after working seven innings against the Rays last time out (in a lopsided 20-1 victory). The last time we saw him do so he was ineffective over 5 1/3 innings last September against the Yankees, allowing five earned runs on nine hits. Note that he's shown a fairly sharp home-road dichotomy this season as well, logging a 5.60 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in his six road outings. Bailey Ober will counter for Minnesota. He continues to be one of the most underrated starters in baseball this season. Ober got the call to the bigs after starting the campaign at the Triple-A level, where he shone, posting a 2.55 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 17 2/3 innings of work. Since joining the Twins, Ober has been just as effective, recording a 3.54 FIP and 0.99 WHIP in 35 1/3 innings pitched. He did allow four earned runs over five innings against the Giants last time out but has yet to give up more than single earned run in consecutive starts this season. Behind Ober is a Twins bullpen that has been terrific lately, entering yesterday's contest sporting a collective 2.35 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over the last seven games. The Jays 'pen has been on par with that of the Twins overall this season but entered yesterday's action with a 3.97 ERA and 1.37 WHIP over the last seven contests. While the Twins had the day off on Thursday, Toronto hasn't enjoyed an off day since May 11th (they'll finally get one tomorrow). The loss on the scoreboard wasn't the only setback for Toronto yesterday as CF Kevin Kiermaier was forced to leave the game with back discomfort. He's been one of the team's most consistent hitters this season, batting .319 and is also one of their best defensive players. It remains to be seen whether he'll be able to play on Sunday. The Twins have their share of injuries as well but have successfully employed a 'next man up' philosophy and average 4.8 runs per game at Target Field this season (entering yesterday's action). Take Minnesota (10*). |
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05-26-23 | White Sox -136 v. Tigers | Top | 12-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over Detroit at 6:40 pm et on Friday. The Tigers took the opener of this series by a 7-2 score last night - their second straight victory. Note that they've strung together more than two wins in a row only twice previously this season while the White Sox haven't dropped back-to-back games since a three-game skid from May 10th to 12th, quietly turning things around following an awful start. Lance Lynn will take the ball for the visiting White Sox on Friday. I have him pegged as a positive regression candidate as much like his team, we've seen him start to turn the corner over his last couple of outings. Lynn still owns a disappointing 4.71 FIP and 1.47 WHIP on the season but those numbers do indicate he's pitched better than his lofty 6.28 ERA. Note that the hits have been falling in at an uncommon rate, even by Lynn's standards, as he has given up 10.2 hits per nine innings this season, compared to his career average of 8.3. Lynn has also given up 1.9 home runs per nine innings compared to his career mark of 0.9 but most of the damage was done when he was struggling early in the campaign. He has given up just one home run over his last two starts, spanning 13 innings of work. Lynn should be pleased to see the Tigers as his teams have gone a perfect 6-0 in his last six starts against them. Joey Wentz will counter for Detroit. He made seven starts at the big league level last year and pitched reasonably well. It's been a different story here in 2023, however, as the book may be out on the left-hander. He checks in sporting a 5.79 FIP and 1.63 WHIP through 38 2/3 innings of work. Wentz hasn't made it out of the third inning in either of his last two outings. While he will have the advantage of facing the White Sox for the first time, the same could have been said in his last start against the Washington Nationals and he was lit up for six earned runs on 10 hits over just two innings. Based on recent form, we can consider the bullpens a virtual wash in this matchup. I do like the fact that White Sox relievers have only been called upon to work 23 1/3 innings over the last seven games, posting a collective 2.31 ERA and 0.94 WHIP while converting three saves without blowing a single one over that stretch. Despite last night's defeat, the White Sox have had plenty of success here in the Motor City over the last 2+ seasons, going 12-7, outscoring the Tigers by an average margin of 6-4. Take Chicago (10*). |
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05-24-23 | Padres v. Nationals +146 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 146 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington over San Diego at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Padres took the opener of this series last night and have now strung together consecutive wins for the first time since May 3rd and 5th. I look for their success to be short-lived, however. Ryan Weathers will get another turn in the starting rotation for San Diego. I don't believe he's been as good as his 3.42 ERA indicates, recording a 4.46 FIP and 1.14 WHIP in 23 2/3 innings of work this season. The hits haven't been falling in against him but we're bound to see some regression in that department, noting that he has allowed just 6.8 hits per nine innings this season but gives up 9.2 for his career. Of the 92 batters Weathers has faced, 28 have reached base, this coming after he allowed 10-of-30 batters he faced to reach base at the Triple-A level earlier this season. The Nationals saw Weathers in the 2021 season, chasing him after 5 1/3 innings but not before plating four earned runs including two home runs on seven hits (while striking out only twice). Trevor Williams will counter for Washington. He's given the Nationals about what they expected, logging a 4.70 FIP and 1.26 WHIP through nine starts spanning 44 1/3 innings of work. He has certainly looked comfortable pitching here at Nationals Park, posting a 2.55 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in four home starts this season. Unlike his counterpart Weathers, Williams doesn't hand out many free passes, issuing just 2.0 walks per nine innings this season. While the Padres bullpen has pitched well lately, I'm willing to consider that department a virtual wash in this matchup at least when you consider the home/road splits of both relief corps'. The Nationals 'pen entered last night's action sporting a collective 3.86 ERA and 1.29 WHIP at home this season while Padres relievers had recorded a 3.96 ERA and 1.31 WHIP on the road. As I've said from the start of the season, I do think the Nats' are well-built for the ballpark they play their home games in, even if they are just 10-16 here this season. I like their chances of answering back against the Padres on Tuesday. Take Washington (10*). |
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05-19-23 | Orioles +135 v. Blue Jays | 6-2 | Win | 135 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Blue Jays are struggling right now, fresh off dropping three of four games against the rival Yankees here at home. I'm not as easily convinced that they'll pick themselves up off the mat on Friday as some and will back the Orioles at a generous underdog price. While the Jays have the more high-profile offense on paper, it's the O's lineup that has worn opposing pitchers out this season. Jays starter Yusei Kikuchi knows all about that as he faced Baltimore three times last season, allowing 12 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings. While Kikuchi owns a respectable 3.89 ERA this season he has logged a disappointing 5.46 FIP and 1.30 WHIP. Behind Kikuchi is a banged-up Jays bullpen that is missing two of its key arms in Adam Cimber and Zach Pop. Baltimore will hand the ball to Kyle Gibson for Friday's series-opener. I'm not going to sugar-coat it, he hasn't been all that good this season, posting a 4.39 FIP and 1.40 WHIP. I do like the fact that he's managed to work at least into the sixth inning in six of his last eight starts. He has probably deserved better than a three-start losing streak, noting that the O's haven't given him a single run of support over that stretch. The O's bullpen doesn't get enough credit. Their relief corps' has logged a collective 2.99 ERA and 1.21 WHIP this season. Take Baltimore (8*). |
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05-18-23 | Dodgers -143 v. Cardinals | 8-16 | Loss | -143 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Thursday. The Dodgers are a team that we want to bet on right now and Julio Urias is certainly a starting pitcher we're looking to support as well. Urias didn't get off to the best start this season and still owns a FIP just above four as he has been giving up home runs at a much higher rate than we're accustomed to seeing (1.7 per nine innings compared to his career mark of 1.0). However, he has strung together three straight solid outings, lowering his WHIP all the way to 1.07 and I believe he's well-positioned to keep the positive momentum building in St. Louis on Thursday. Urias' counterpart will be veteran Adam Wainwright. He struggled in a few minor league outings earlier this season, allowing 20-of-58 batters to reach base while recording an ERA north of six in 13 innings of work. Since re-joining the Cards he has logged a 5.10 FIP and 1.70 WHIP while allowing 17-of-45 batters he has faced to reach base. Now he faces a Dodgers club that is certainly comfortable facing him having gone up against him four times (winning three of those games) over the last two seasons (nine earned runs in 22 innings). The bullpens are virtually a wash and both teams were in action yesterday. I will point out that Los Angeles has converted 12 saves while blowing only four while St. Louis has just eight saves to its credit to go along with 10 blown. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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05-17-23 | Yankees v. Blue Jays +108 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 108 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto over New York at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Yankees have taken the first two games in this series and they've done so convincingly by a 13-7 margin. I look for the Blue Jays to answer back on Wednesday, even as they face New York ace Gerrit Cole. We've seen some cracks in Cole's armor lately as he has allowed 24 hits and 11 earned runs over his last four starts covering a span of 22 2/3 innings. While it hasn't necessarily affected him much in the past, he'll be making his fifth consecutive start on short rest (four days). The Yankees have managed to win Cole's last two starts against the Blue Jays, including a walk-off 3-2 victory in the Bronx back in April. The last time New York won consecutive Cole outings against Toronto (back in 2021) they dropped his next start against the Jays by a 5-1 score. Behind Cole is an effective but overworked Yankees bullpen that was forced into action early last night thanks to starter Domingo German's ejection. Note that New York hasn't had a day off since May 4th, complicating late-inning bullpen decisions. The Blue Jays will hand the ball to Chris Bassitt. After an up-and-down start to the season he has really settled in over his last two starts, not allowing a single earned run in 16 innings of work. In fact, since allowing 10 hits and nine earned runs in 3 1/3 innings against St. Louis in his season debut, Bassitt has given up just 20 hits and 10 earned runs in his last seven starts, lasting at least six innings in six of those outings. The Toronto bullpen faltered late in last night's game but entered that contest sporting a collective 1.82 ERA and 0.85 WHIP with five saves converted and only one blown at home this season. Closer Jordan Romano is well-rested having not pitched since Saturday. Take Toronto (10*). |
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05-17-23 | Phillies -115 v. Giants | 4-7 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over San Francisco at 3:45 pm et on Wednesday. The Giants have taken a pair of tightly-contested affairs to open this series and the Phillies have suddenly lost three games in a row following a five-game winning streak. I look for Philadelphia to bounce back on Wednesday as it sends Taijuan Walker to the hill against Ross Stripling of the Giants. Walker has certainly had an inconsistent start to his 2023 campaign but has managed to string together consecutive solid outings entering this start, allowing just four earned runs on 10 hits and no walks while striking out nine over his last 12 innings of work. I like the fact that he has lasted at least six innings in four of his last six trips to the hill and will be working in front of a Phillies bullpen that has been lights out lately, sporting a collective 0.00 ERA and 0.78 WHIP over the last seven games. Despite the close game last night, Philadelphia kept most of its key relief arms idle after Zach Wheeler worked six frames. Ross Stripling will counter for San Francisco. He's bounced in and out of the starting rotation in the early going this season, making eight appearances overall. He's been every bit as bad as his 7.14 ERA would indicate, logging a 7.16 FIP and 1.59 WHIP with 47 of the 131 batters he has faced managing to reach base. Stripling has topped out at five innings in his four previous starts this season which doesn't bode well as the Giants bullpen has been a mess, sporting a collective 5.80 ERA and 1.51 WHIP with 12 saves converted and seven blown on the campaign. Note that Giants closer Camilo Doval, one of the few bright spots in the San Francisco relief corps this season, worked the last two games meaning he's likely unavailable on Wednesday. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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