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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-11-24 | 49ers v. Chiefs UNDER 47.5 | Top | 22-25 | Win | 100 | 105 h 38 m | Show |
Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Kansas City at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. I had this total pegged at 45, maybe 45.5 if I'm being generous to the two offenses. Yet here we are, working with a total of 47.5 at the time of writing with the potential we see it bump up a half-point at some books in advance of Sunday's kickoff. We got the result we wanted in the late game on Conference Championship Sunday as the 49ers got shredded early before rallying for a wild 34-31 victory over the Lions (in which they would have covered the spread were it not for a late Lions touchdown). Note that the 'under' is 16-11 in San Francisco's last 27 games following an 'over' result and 6-3 in its last nine contests after giving up 30 points or more in its previous game, including a perfect 2-0 this season in that latter situation. There is reason to believe the Chiefs can move the football on this 49ers defense but I don't believe game script (this projects as a tightly-contested affair) will force Kansas City to play fast or bomb away. With that said, the Chiefs have attempted 30 or more passes 11 times going back to October 29th and didn't throw for 300 or more yards in any of those contests so even if they do throw the football more than we expect, it doesn't necessarily work against us. Andy Reid's team has evolved into one that relies heavily on its ground attack and short passing game to possess the football for extended stretches and effectively shorten proceedings. That's precisely how they went into Baltimore and upset the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game. I do suspect we'll see the 49ers continue to employ a run-funnel defensive gameplan in this contest in an effort to stamp out Kansas City's big-play potential through the air. The strength of this Niners defense is in the middle - a big reason it was so successful in keeping opposing tight ends under wraps all season long, and certainly in the playoffs. Kansas City TE Travis Kelce will draw plenty of prop bet money from recreational bettors leading up to Sunday's game and I don't think the sportsbooks mind that one bit. On the flip side, the Chiefs defense is elite. It presents challenges all over the field for the 49ers offense. While I'm higher than Niners QB Brock Purdy than some, he's going to have a difficult time trying to find his favorite target WR Brandon Aiyuk against the Chiefs lock-down corners. Meanwhile San Francisco TE George Kittle continues to deal with a nagging toe injury and might be best deployed as a decoy in this particular matchup. RB Christian McCaffrey will get his but he's essentially the only Niners skill position player that draws a favorable matchup here. There could be times where he's on an island trying to carry the Niners offense down the field. Again, any success McCaffrey has figures to keep the clock moving, effectively shortening this contest. The 'under' is 12-7 in the Chiefs last 19 games following a road win and a long-term 27-20 in their last 47 contests after an upset win away from home. Finally, we'll note that the 'under' is 4-1 in Kansas City's last five games following a bye week and 23-12 in its last 35 contests in that situation. Take the under (10*). |
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01-28-24 | Chiefs v. Ravens UNDER 44.5 | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 47 h 20 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Baltimore at 3 pm et on Sunday. While there are plenty of offensive stars on display in this matchup, headlined by the quarterback showdown between Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, I actually expect points to come at a premium on Sunday afternoon in Baltimore. I don't envision either team having a ton of success throwing the football. The Chiefs have done a tremendous job of containing mobile opposing quarterbacks over the years and job number one will be taking away Lamar Jackson's legs on Sunday. Of course Jackson is playing arguably the best football of his career right now so that's no easy task. I do think we'll see the Chiefs defense, which is relatively healthy considering the time of year, at least force the Ravens to go on long, methodical drives that may or may not end in 7's on the board. Meanwhile, the Baltimore defense should feast on a Chiefs offense that has been gashed by injuries on the offensive line. Not only that but RB Isaiah Pacheco, who has been the team's unsung hero down the stretch, is playing on a bad toe and ankle. I would anticipate Kansas City using its short passing game and expect to see Patrick Mahomes flushed out of the pocket and forced to run the football on plenty of occasions on Sunday. Again, long, clock-eating drives could turn out to be the story of the game. Note that the 'under' is 8-1 in the Chiefs last nine games following a win by three points or less and 9-5 in their last 14 contests following four straight victories, as is the case here. The Ravens have seen the 'under' go 10-6 in their last 16 games following a home win and a long-term 30-21 in their last 51 contests after a victory by 21 points or more. Take the under (10*). |
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01-21-24 | Bucs v. Lions OVER 49 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 51 h 49 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Detroit at 3 pm et on Sunday. This game has shootout potential. The same thing could have been said for the Lions matchup with the Rams last week but the scoring fizzled in the second half following a blazing hot start from the two offenses. Here, I expect both teams to score early and often. The Buccaneers draw a favorable matchup from an offensive standpoint but a tough one defensively. QB Baker Mayfield is playing the best football of his NFL career right now and were it not for a couple of drops on potential big plays to veteran WR Mike Evans last Monday, Tampa Bay probably would have approached 40 points against what was once considered an elite Eagles defense. Here, the Bucs draw a Lions defense that can't stop the pass. Yes, Detroit has snuffed out opposing ground attacks but that's not really what Tampa Bay is all about right now. We've already seen the Bucs offense thrive in previous indoor games this season, scoring 20 points in Minnesota, 26 in New Orleans, 37 in Houston, 20 in Indianapolis and 29 in Atlanta. QB Jared Goff and the Lions explosive offense should continue to cook in this plus matchup on Sunday. The Bucs will do what they do defensively and that involves plenty of blitzing. Goff should eat them up with quick passes, noting that the Lions possess a rock solid offensive line and one of the best blocking running backs in football in David Montgomery. It's a pick your poison type of situation for the Tampa Bay defense. The Bucs will have to hope their offense can keep pace all afternoon long. Note that the 'over' is 7-2 in Tampa Bay's last nine road games as an underdog of seven points or less, as is the case here at the time of writing. The 'over' is certainly flashing for the Lions noting that the 'over' has gone a perfect 5-0 in their last five games following a win by three points or less, 19-11 in their last 30 contests played indoors and a long-term 122-103 when coming off an 'under' result. Take the over (10*). |
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01-20-24 | Texans v. Ravens OVER 43.5 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Baltimore at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. This total has dropped considerably since opening in part due to weather concerns with cold temperatures and potentially gusting winds playing a factor. I'm not overly concerned. The first meeting between these two teams this season was a bit of a stinker as Baltimore rolled to a 25-9 victory. Needless to say, the Texans are a much different team now than they were then (that previous matchup came in Week 1). Rookie QB C.J. Stroud is the real deal. I like the way this Texans offense has evolved over the course of the season. As good as the Ravens defense is, it is by no means perfect. Baltimore has actually allowed 4.5 yards per rush this season. Going back to mid-October, the Ravens were torched for 120+ rushing yards in eight of their last 12 games. There's undoubtedly a path forward for the Texans offense here and I'm confident we'll see them play loose. Head coach DeMeco Ryans is defensive-minded without question but I like the way he let the offense cook down the stretch and certainly in last week's playoff opener against Cleveland. Note that Houston has scored 20+ points in nine of its last 11 games, only failing to reach that number in a game where Stroud suffered a concussion and then when he missed the next week. Of note, Baltimore will be without top CB Marlon Humphrey for this game, easing the matchup for Texans breakout WR Nico Collins as well. Enough about the Texans, let's talk about the Ravens electric offense. I don't think Houston is going to have many answers against a well-rested Baltimore offense. The Texans haven't performed particularly well against the pass, in fact they've been downright awful in that regard at times. They've also struggled to contain opposing quarterbacks on the ground, yielding seven rushing touchdowns over the course of the season. Everything is on the table for the Baltimore offense here and I don't expect it to take its foot off the gas pedal for one moment in this game. Note that the 'over' is 23-15 in the Texans last 38 games when seeking revenge for a loss by 14 points or more against an opponent. When that previous blowout loss came on the road the 'over' has gone 15-7 in their last 22 contests. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 6-3 in the Ravens last nine games following a loss against a division opponent, as is the case here. Take the over (10*). |
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01-13-24 | Browns v. Texans OVER 44.5 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Houston at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. I think the Browns can score at will in this game as they look to continue their upward trajectory with veteran QB Joe Flacco under center. Cleveland was a run-first team earlier in the season, rushing the ball more than 30 times in eight of its first nine games. It was a much different story down the stretch, however, as the Browns ran the football at least 30 times just once in their final eight contests. They'll undoubtedly deploy a similar strategy here as the Texans simply don't have the personnel in place to stop the pass. On the flip side, I don't think we can rule out the Texans staying competitive in this game. When they faced the Browns on Christmas Eve they scored 22 points despite accomplishing very little with Case Keenum and Davis Mills running the offense. The Browns defense simply hasn't travelled well this season, allowing at least 22 points in all eight road games with the 'over' cashing at a perfect 8-0 clip. Note that the 'over' is 29-15 in the Texans last 44 home games following consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here. I also strongly believe this game has the potential for 'splash' plays from the two defenses, potentially leading to points on the board. Flacco has admittedly been turnover-prone. C.J. Stroud, while the front-runner for offensive rookie of the year, will be up against a ball-hawking Browns secondary that looks like it will have the services of CB Denzel Ward after he tweaked his knee at practice earlier this week. Take the over (10*). |
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01-07-24 | Vikings v. Lions OVER 46 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Vikings defense held up better than most expected over the course of the season with Brian Flores' blitz-happy packages stemming the tide for much of the campaign. That hasn't been the case over the last three games, however. It seems that the book may be out on this incarnation of the Purple People Eaters. Minnesota has been smacked for 27, 30 and 33 points over its last three contests. The Vikes three opponents over that stretch - Cincinnati, Detroit and Green Bay - posted respective passing lines of 29-42-298, 30-40-246 and 25-34-193. According to head coach Dan Campbell, the Lions will play their starters on Sunday, despite being locked into the third spot in the NFC. Regardless who takes the field, I expect them to find success against the Vikes sagging defense. On the flip side, Minnesota will be going for it with a slim chance of reaching the postseason despite its embarrassing home loss against the Packers in primetime last Sunday. Teams haven't even bothered running against the Lions lately and the Vikings don't figure to stray from that strategy (they've run the football just 27 times over their last two games). More passing equates to more clock stoppages. I don't envision Minnesota possessing the football for long stretches on Sunday but I do think it can punch through with some big plays against this struggling Lions secondary. Take the over (10*). |
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01-06-24 | Steelers v. Ravens UNDER 34.5 | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
AFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Baltimore at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. This is obviously a must-win game for the Steelers and they'll also need help in the form of a Dolphins win over the Bills tomorrow night to clinch a playoff spot. While Baltimore will be resting its starters, I'm not convinced it will simply roll over in this divisional revenge game after dropping a 17-10 decision in Pittsburgh earlier this season. While the Ravens won't play the majority of their starters you can be sure they would still like nothing more than to end the Steelers season here. I do think it's in both teams best interest to effectively shorten this game. For the Steelers, they'll be looking to take the crowd out of the game and make this one as boring as possible in my opinion. The last thing they want to do is awaken the sleeping giant in this case. QB Mason Rudolph has been ultra-efficient through his first two starts but regardless who he is facing on the Ravens defense on Saturday, they'll be scheming up to stop him. Note that Baltimore has forced a whopping 10 turnovers over its last three games. For the Ravens, they simply want to get through this game unscathed. Backup QB Lamar Huntley has only appeared in mop-up duty so far this season. Last year, the final scores in his five games of extended action totalled just 19, 30, 16, 26 and 29 points. While the 'over' has cashed in each of Pittsburgh's last four games, the 'under' is a long-term 149-114 when it plays away from home. The 'under' is also 12-4 in the Steelers last 16 games following a victory. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 42-22 in the Ravens last 66 contests after scoring 25 or more points in consecutive games, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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12-31-23 | Saints v. Bucs OVER 42 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
NFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Saints have defied expectations from a totals perspective, at least on the road in recent weeks as the 'over' has gone 3-1 in their last four games played away from home. This is another promising spot for the Saints offense on the road against what has turned out to be a very beatable Buccaneers defense. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay offense has thrived with Baker Mayfield at the helm. With the Saints missing CB Marshon Lattimore once again, it's all systems go for the Bucs offense again. Note that the 'under' has cashed in four straight meetings in this series. We haven't seen four straight 'unders' between these two teams previously since 2014-16. In their next matchup on that occasion they combined to score 55 points. The 'over' is a long-term 63-54 with the Saints coming off a road loss, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 46-40 in Tampa Bay's last 86 games following an upset win. Take the over (10*). |
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12-24-23 | Cardinals v. Bears OVER 43 | Top | 16-27 | Push | 0 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Chicago at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. On a surprisingly pleasant Christmas Eve in Chicago weather-wise, we'll call for plenty of points in this NFC matchup. The Cardinals dropped a 45-29 decision at home against the 49ers last week and draw a similar matchup against an improved Bears defense here. With that said, Arizona has scored 24 or more points in consecutive games and it positioned quite well to thrive with the Kyle Murray-to-Trey McBride connection working wonders for the offense. Chicago has the potential to light it up as well as it looks to bounce back following last week's blown opportunity in Cleveland. The Bears didn't keep their foot on the gas against the Browns and ultimately let Cleveland off the hook. Against a reeling Cardinals defense we can anticipate Bears QB Justin Field going off in this matchup. Note that the 'over' is 17-10 in the Bears last 27 games following an ATS loss. The 'over' is also 15-11 in the Cards last 26 games after giving up 40 or more points in their previous contest. Take the over (10*). |
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12-03-23 | Broncos v. Texans OVER 47 | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 22 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. It's all systems go for the Texans with breakout wide receivers Tank Dell and Noah Brown expected to play on Sunday in this critical home matchup against the Broncos. We know what the Houston offense is capable of and it should push the Broncos defense much harder than either of their last two opponents did in the banged-up Vikings and Browns (both of those games were played in Denver). On the flip side, Denver's offense is no longer the plodding, methodical unit taking what it can get. The Broncos have reeled off five straight wins, scoring 24 or more points in three of their last four contests. Finally with at true RB1 in Javonte Williams and a rejuvenated WR duo in Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, the Broncos can give the Texans defense some problems in this game. Note that the 'over' is 29-14 in the Texans last 43 home games following consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here. Take the over (10*). |
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11-23-23 | 49ers v. Seahawks OVER 44 | Top | 31-13 | Push | 0 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
NFC West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Seattle at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. The 49ers are coming off consecutive 'under' results, a curious outcome considering they've gotten as healthy as they've been all season on offense over that stretch with Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel among those returning. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are fresh off a very low-scoring affair against the Rams as they dropped a 17-16 decision in Los Angeles. I expect a different story to unfold on Thursday with a higher-scoring result than most are expecting. The Niners should feast on a Seahawks defense that has been relatively soft against the run and in the middle of the field. Yes, Seattle boasts a tremendous cornerback duo in Tariq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon but that hasn't stopped opponents from attacking it relentlessly through the air. On the flip side, the Seahawks offense is admittedly banged up. QB Geno Smith is expected to play but is certainly at risk of sitting at some point due to his shoulder injury. As strange as it sounds, I like Seattle's offense with backup QB Drew Lock at the helm - especially as an 'over' bettor as his presence generally leads to plenty of 'splash' plays, often to his team's detriment. Seahawks home games have been considerably higher-scoring (47.2 points per game) than their road affairs (39.6 ppg) this season and I look for that trend to continue here. Take the over (10*). |
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11-23-23 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State OVER 54 | Top | 17-7 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 27 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Ole Miss and Mississippi State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. This matchup produced only 46 total points last season in a game that had a closing total of 63 points. So that potential shootout fizzled but I don't believe this one will. Ole Miss has been involved in its share of high-scoring affairs this season but its most recent contest reached only 38 points in a blowout win over Louisiana-Monroe. In general, most of the Rebels games have either involved them lighting it up or the opposition doing so. There's really been no in-between. Here, Ole Miss should break off its share of big plays on the ground against a Mississippi State defense that has been matador-like against the run when it's mattered most - for example it is just one game removed from getting ripped for 246 yards on 45 rush attempts against Texas A&M. The Bulldogs offense hasn't been all that electric this season. It's largely been a disappointment, in fact. However, Mississippi State has also run up against a pretty brutal schedule since Week 4, facing the gauntlet of Alabama at home, Arkansas and Auburn on the road, Kentucky at home and Texas A&M on the road with a couple of gimme non-conference matchups mixed in (the Bulldogs scored 41 points in wins over Western Michigan and Southern Miss). Note that the 'over' is 11-3 in Mississippi State's last 14 lined home contests, leading to an average total of 59.4 points. Take the over (10*). |
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11-18-23 | Utah v. Arizona UNDER 46.5 | Top | 18-42 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 36 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Arizona at 2:30 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring games last week but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up in Tucson on Saturday. Utah is a better defensive team than it has shown in recent weeks but keep in mind it has run into USC, Oregon and Washington - three of the top offensive teams not just in the Pac-12 but in the country - in the last four games. Here, it draws a more manageable matchup in Arizona. The Wildcats have been rolling offensively but aren't likely to overwhelm the Utes talented defense. On the flip side, Utah has yet to complete 20 or more passes in a game this season, clearly missing QB Cam Rising. The Utes figure to lean on their ground attack again this week, although they'll be facing a Wildcats defense that has been stout against the run, holding opponents to just 3.2 yards per rush on the campaign. Take the under (10*). |
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11-12-23 | 49ers v. Jaguars OVER 45 | Top | 34-3 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. The 49ers come out of their bye week and look to snap a three-game losing streak in Jacksonville on Sunday afternoon. With WR Deebo Samuel and LT Trent Williams set to return it should be all systems go for the 49ers offense. Note that San Francisco turned the football over three times in each of its last two games with a number of potential scoring drives going awry as a result. The Niners still scored 17 points in each of those two contests and should be able to improve on that production here. Jacksonville has scored 20 or more points in five straight games and I don't expect it to go away quietly on Sunday. You can be sure QB Trevor Lawrence hasn't forgotten a stinker of a performance at home against the Niners during his rookie season in 2021. That was back when Jacksonville was guided by head coach Urban Meyer and Lawrence's weapons included the likes of RB James Robinson and WRs Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault Jr. The fact that the Jags even scored 10 points on that day was admirable. Take the over (10*). |
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11-11-23 | Northwestern v. Wisconsin UNDER 43 | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 21 h 6 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Northwestern and Wisconsin at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. While Iowa is getting all the attention for its extremely low-scoring games in the Big Ten this season, Wisconsin isn't far behind - or shouldn't be moving forward anyway. The Badgers have scored 14 points or less in three of their last four games as they deal with a cluster of key injuries on the offensive side of the football. Their defense has been less impacted and checks in having held eight of nine opponents to 24 points or less this season. Northwestern has shown flashes on offense but has stagnated as usual for the most part. The Wildcats are coming off a 10-7 loss to Iowa last week. In four road games this season Northwestern has produced 7, 14, 9 and 7 points. Wisconsin has scored 35 and 42 points in the last two meetings in this series but I don't expect it to come close to that level of production on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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11-05-23 | Cowboys v. Eagles UNDER 47 | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 20 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Philadelphia at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. These two offenses balled out last Sunday as the Cowboys exploded for 43 points in a rout of the Rams while the Eagles rallied to secure a 38-31 road win over the Commanders. I expect nothing of the sort in terms of offensive production on Sunday as Dallas heads to Philadelphia. The Cowboys lived in the Rams backfield last Sunday, ultimately leading to plenty of mistakes and short fields for the offense. It's unlikely they'll enjoy the same level of success against an elite Eagles offensive line here. Philadelphia got away from its ground game last week but that was almost entirely game-script dependent as it trailed much of the way, ultimately running the football just 22 times. It was a similar story a few weeks ago against the Jets in New York. Here, I look for a far more run-centric approach from the Eagles in a game where they've been installed as a home favorite. Note that the 'under' has gone 9-1 in the Cowboys last 10 games where the line was posted between +3 and -3, as is the case here. The 'under' is a long-term 50-20 in the Eagles last 70 games after their previous contest totalled 60 or more points and 17-6 in their last 23 home games after a win by seven points or less against a divisional foe, with both of those situations in play here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-02-23 | TCU v. Texas Tech OVER 59.5 | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between TCU and Texas Tech at 7 pm et on Thursday. We're working with a considerably lower posted total than we saw in last year's matchup between these two teams. After all, that game reached 'only' 58 total points and both teams are coming off dismal offensive showings in their most recent game. I do think we'll see plenty of points on the board on Thursday, however, as this game has shootout potential. Few opponents have bombed away on the TCU defense this season. But we know it's possible as Colorado ripped the Horned Frogs for 38-of-47 passing for over 500 yards back in Week 1. While it has been somewhat game-script dependent, Texas Tech is coming off a pair of games in which it aired it out 49 and 37 times. Meanwhile, the Red Raiders ground attack has churned out 153 or more rushing yards in seven straight games. TCU won't shy away from slinging it all over the field either, noting that it has completed at least 21 passes in all eight games so far this season with three 300+ passing yard games. The Horned Frogs have racked up over 100 rushing yards in all eight games this season. Neither team has had a tendency to hold onto the football for long stretches with both averaging right around 27 minutes per game in terms of time of possession. I think that quick-strike potential will be there all night long in Lubbock. Take the over (10*). |
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10-29-23 | Saints v. Colts UNDER 43.5 | Top | 38-27 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring 'over' results last week and that's led to this total being bet up a few points since opening. I believe it's a move in the wrong direction. The Saints have aired it out 50+ times in consecutive weeks. That's not how this offense is built as head coach Dennis Allen and QB Derek Carr are as risk-averse as it gets. I do expect the Saints to find some success in this game but road teams haven't been running away and hiding on the Colts here in Indianapolis this season with their four home games all decided by 10 points or less. Indy put up a whopping 38 points against Cleveland last Sunday but I'm not counting on a repeat performance. After turning the football over four times in each of the last two weeks, there's reason to believe we'll see Shane Steichen's Colts scale back their offensive gameplan for QB Garnder Minshew against an elite Saints defense on Sunday. Note that the 'under' is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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10-28-23 | Oregon v. Utah UNDER 47.5 | Top | 35-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon and Utah at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring 'over' results last week - in the last two weeks, in fact. I expect a reversal of course here on Saturday as the Ducks travel to face the Utes. Oregon has looked downright unstoppable at times this season but Washington State actually managed to lay out a pretty good blueprint for slowing the Ducks high-powered offense for the better part of the first half last week. I expect the Utes, who own one of the best defenses in the nation, to turn in a strong performance here at home, where they've allowed just 39 points in four games this season. Note that last year the Utes travelled to Autzen Stadium and limited the Ducks to just 20 points in a three-point defeat. On the flip side, the Ducks defense doesn't get nearly the credit or attention it deserves, largely due to the team's electric offense. Favored on the road, there's nothing for Oregon's defense to fear with the Utes still dealing with inconsistent play at the quarterback position. Take the under (10*). |
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10-23-23 | 49ers v. Vikings OVER 43 | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Minnesota at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The 49ers got bogged down offensively in a bad weather game (against a very good defense) in Cleveland last Sunday ending their streak of five straight games scoring 30 or more points to open the season. I expect them to pick right back up on Monday as they draw a mouth-watering matchup under the Bank of America Stadium roof in Minnesota. The Vikings only hope on defense is that their blitz-happy nature can force 49ers QB Brock Purdy into a couple of crucial mistakes but I'm more confident in Purdy's ability to pick apart a very beatable Vikes secondary. Even without all-world WR Justin Jefferson, I do think the Minnesota offense can test an extremely stout 49ers defense. Rookie WR Jordan Addison flashed in the absence of JJ last Sunday in Chicago. The Vikes offense got off to a strong start in that contest before slowing down in the second half. While most have given up on RB Alexander Mattison, I think he has plenty of tread left on his tires. Note that he contributed a touchdown run in Minnesota's wild 34-26 loss in San Francisco the last time these two teams met in November of 2021. The Vikes manufactured 26 points in that contest despite Jefferson being held out of the end zone. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 7-0 with Minnesota priced as an underdog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points over the last three seasons with that situation totalling an average of 61.2 points. Even if we downgrade the Vikes offense with Jefferson sidelined, they still figure to approach the 20-point mark. Take the over (10*). |
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10-15-23 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 43.5 | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Vikings season is obviously swirling down the drain following another loss last Sunday, not to mention the fact that all-world WR Justin Jefferson will miss a considerable number of weeks due to injury. With that being said, Minnesota is in a smash spot against the Bears on Sunday and should finally be able to get rolling offensively. Thought to be one of the best 'over' bets on a weekly basis out of the gates this season, you would have to go back to Week 2 to find the last time a game involving the Vikes found its way 'over' the total. That should change here. The Bears defense has already given up a whopping eight rushing touchdowns through five games this season. Chicago's secondary has been ravaged by injuries and even without Jefferson, Minnesota's passing game remains dynamic with rookie WR Jordan Addison, K.J. Osborn and TE T.J. Hockenson in line to eat on Sunday afternoon. On the flip side, it's all systems go for Bears QB Justin Fields after he got going against the Commanders last week. Minnesota has managed to pick off just one pass all season in contrast with eight passing touchdowns allowed. That's about par for the course given the Vikes personnel deficits in pass defense. I can't imagine Chicago bothering to bang its head against the wall running the ball in this game, instead electing to attack Minnesota's burnable secondary through the air. Take the over (10*). |
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10-08-23 | Jets v. Broncos UNDER 43.5 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 42 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Denver at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We're looking at a classic overreaction to last Sunday's results in my opinion as this total has climbed a number of points since opening. The Jets offense went from lifeless to inspired thanks to a stunningly sharp performance from QB Zach Wilson against the mighty Chiefs last Sunday night. Meanwhile, the Broncos hung 34 points on the lowly Bears in a massive come-from-behind victory in the Windy City. I'm taking both of those results with a grain of salt, however, as I believe the jury is still out as to how efficient or explosive these two offenses can be. The Jets aren't going to win many games pinning their hopes on an offense that has been of the pop-gun variety at best so far this season. I wouldn't anticipate them opening up the playbook too wide for Wilson in a hostile environment against an opportunistic Broncos defense on Sunday. On the flip side, Denver's furious rally last week came against a hapless Bears defense. I expect the Broncos to go back to a rather conservative offensive gameplan against an elite Jets defense. Note that these two teams just met here in Denver last October with New York prevailing in a 16-9 slugfest. Two years ago on this same field, the Broncos pitched a shutout in a 26-point rout. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 24-11 with the Jets playing on the road off three or more consecutive losses with that situation producing an average total of just 36.3 points. Better still, the 'under' is 15-2 with Denver coming off three straight games in which it allowed 25 or more points, as is the case here, leading to just 38.3 total points on average in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
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10-05-23 | Bears v. Commanders OVER 44 | Top | 40-20 | Win | 100 | 36 h 15 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Washington at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. When these two teams met on a Thursday night last season, the result was a predictable snoozefest that went Washington's way by a score of 12-7. While few are expecting much entertainment from this Thursday's rematch, I actually think we could be in for some offensive fireworks. Both teams thrived offensively last Sunday with both falling a field goal short, albeit in much different fashion. The Bears coughed up a three-touchdown lead in an eventual 34-31 loss to the Broncos, at home no less. Meanwhile, the Commanders gave the mighty Eagles all they could handle on the road in a 31-28 overtime defeat. Chicago's offense sputtered in this matchup last year but should confidently attack a leaky Commanders back-end on Thursday with QB Justin Fields coming off a confidence-building performance against Denver. While the Bears offensive line has been downright offensive so far this season, help is on the way in the form of left guard Teven Jenkins, who is expected to return from a calf injury. Washington has been wildly inconsistent on offense. That's quite simply what you're going to get with Sam Howell as your starting quarterback. I do think we'll see the Commanders get whatever they want on the ground in this game with the underrated RB duo of Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson poised to go off against a Charmin-soft Bears defensive front. Likely to have plenty of time to operate in the pocket, Howell figures to take his shots against an injury-depleted Bears secondary as well. Chicago is allowing a ridiculous 8.4 yards per pass attempt this season. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 with the Bears playing on the road off two or more consecutive ATS losses over the last three seasons, as is the situation here, with that spot producing an average total of 53.9 points. Take the over (10*). |
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10-01-23 | Broncos v. Bears UNDER 46.5 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. I think both of these defenses are being lumped into the 'bad' category three games into the season but I'm not sure it's warranted. The Broncos got schooled by the Dolphins explosive offense last Sunday, allowing a ridiculous 70 points in a 50-point defeat. Meanwhile, the Bears gave up 41 points on the road against the Chiefs. Here, both defenses catch a break as we're talking about two of the slowest and most punchless offenses in the entire league. Broncos head coach Sean Payton clearly isn't comfortable dialing up many aggressive plays down the field for QB Russell Wilson. The same goes for the Bears with QB Justin Fields as they continue to waste his talent with tentative play-calling. I can't help but feel we're in for a game where the two offenses move up and down the field but accomplish very little on the scoreboard Sunday afternoon. Keep in mind, the last three meetings in this series have produced 23, 32 and 30 total points. The 'under' is a long-term 41-16 with the Bears playing at home as an underdog of three points or less, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 37.2 points scored in that situation. Take the under (10*). |
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09-25-23 | Eagles v. Bucs OVER 44.5 | Top | 25-11 | Loss | -111 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Tampa Bay at 7:15 pm et on Monday. The Buccaneers have displayed a rock solid offensive floor in this particular matchup in recent years, putting up 45, 27, 28 and 31 points in four meetings going back to 2015 including two since 2021. No, Tampa Bay doesn't have Tom Brady running the show anymore, but I do think it can find success with Baker Mayfield working against what looks to be a pass-funnel Eagles defense so far this season. Injuries to Avante Maddox and Nakobe Dean have certainly played a role in Philadelphia's early-season deficiencies on the defensive side of the football. On the flip side, this is a double-revenge spot for the Eagles after dropping each of its last two matchups against the Bucs. Note that Tampa Bay has allowed an average of 25.7 points per game when coming off consecutive contests in which it gave up 17 points or less over the last three seasons (six-game sample size), leading to an average total of 49.5 points in that situation. The Eagles offense has yet to really hit its stride through two games but still managed to put up a total of 59 points. Take the over (10*). |
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09-23-23 | Oregon State v. Washington State UNDER 58 | Top | 35-38 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 22 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon State and Washington State at 7 pm et on Saturday. Beavers QB D.J. Uiagalelei has looked like the right fit since transferring from Clemson, where he never lived up to sky-high expectations. With that said, he's been able to ease into proceedings with Oregon State by facing San Jose State, UC Davis and San Diego State in the first three games with the latter two contests coming at home. I do think the Beavers are in for a challenge on Saturday as they travel to Pullman to take on fellow undefeated Washington State. While the Cougars are coming off a 64-point explosion last Saturday, expectations should be tempered noting that came against an FCS opponent in Northern Colorado. This will be their toughest test to date - certainly from a defensive standpoint, with Oregon State having allowed a grand total of 33 points through three games. Back to Uiagalelei for a moment, he is coming off a two-interception game against San Diego State and I do expect the Beavers to scale things back a little here against an opportunistic Washington State defense. The Cougars boast one of the best pass rushes in the country led by ends Ron Stone Jr. and Brennan Jackson. I would anticipate plenty of dinking and dunking from the Beavers on Saturday as they look to get the football out of Uiagalelei's hands quickly and into the hands of their playmakers. The story isn't all that different for the Cougars. QB Cam Ward is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country in my opinion. Yet, in a similar matchup two weeks ago at home against Wisconsin he completed just 20-of-32 passes for 212 yards and two touchdowns - an efficient if not explosive performance. Ward was sacked seven times in the Cougars first two games against FBS foes this season so like the Beavers, I think we'll see the Cougars lean heavily on their short passing attack (and ground game) in an attempt to control proceedings at home on Saturday. This was an extremely high-scoring series from 2013 to 2020 but since then we've seen each of the last two matchups between these two teams stay 'under' the total, including last year's 24-10 Oregon State victory in Corvallis. Take the under (10*). |
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09-22-23 | Wisconsin v. Purdue UNDER 53.5 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -105 | 80 h 10 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Wisconsin and Purdue at 7 pm et on Friday. Wisconsin entered this season with a new look on offense, aiming to ratchet up the pace and sling the football around the field a lot more than we're accustomed to seeing. So far, it's been a mixed bag. The Badgers opened the season with a dominant performance against Buffalo, rolling to a 38-17 victory. From there they travelled to face Washington State and dropped a 31-22 decision. Last week they forced six turnovers in a 35-14 home win over Georgia Southern. Wisconsin is in for a tough test on Friday as it faces a Purdue squad that will be in a foul mood following a 35-20 home loss to Syracuse last Saturday. Don't sleep on the Boilermakers defense. They were hung out to dry by the offense last week as Purdue turned the football over four times in that setback against the Orange. Keep in mind, the Boilers are just one game removed from holding Virginia Tech to 17 points on fewer than 300 total yards in Blacksburg. I do think we see a rather conservative offensive gameplan from Purdue here after last week's turnover-happy performance. The Boilers know they can ill afford to give a good Wisconsin offense any short fields to work with on Friday. For the most part, Purdue hasn't shown much big play potential on offense in the early going this season. I would anticipate plenty of dinking and dunking down the field on Friday, noting that they did control the time of possession in last year's matchup with the Badgers, holding onto the football for 32+ minutes, albeit in a 35-24 defeat. Enough about Purdue, Wisconsin couldn't have been pleased with its defensive performance against Georgia Southern last week, allowing the Eagles to complete 33-of-52 passes for 383 yards. Were it not for all of the GSU turnovers, the end result might have been much different. In the Badgers toughest test so far this season they did hold an ascending Washington State offense to 'only' 31 points in enemy territory. In that contest, there was a stretch where the Badgers didn't allow an offensive touchdown for just shy of 39 minutes from early in the second quarter until the fourth quarter. All told, Wisconsin has given up seven offensive touchdowns in 12 quarters of action this season. Offensively, the Badgers would like to shift to a more pass-happy attack but so far they've topped out at 278 passing yards through three games. The Badgers ground attack is as good as any in the nation but I do think the Boilers can limit the big home run plays here. I'm very high on Purdue's defense in the second and third level in particular. Take the under (10*). |
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09-21-23 | Giants v. 49ers UNDER 44.5 | Top | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 32 h 13 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and San Francisco at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We saw a predictably high-scoring affair on Thursday Night Football last week as the Vikings and Eagles lit up the scoreboard in Philadelphia. I expect a much different story to play out this week as the Giants and 49ers do battle on a short week in Santa Clara. New York got off to a sluggish start in Arizona last Sunday but ultimately got it together in the second half in a massive come-from-behind victory over the Cardinals. The Giants will face a much more difficult test here, however, as the 49ers enter sporting a perfect 2-0 record off back-to-back road wins to open the campaign. I don't anticipate Giants QB Daniel Jones having much time to operate behind a banged-up offensive line. The 49ers boast one of the league's fiercest pass rushes and I'm certain we'll see Brian Daboll's employ a gameplan centered around Jones getting the football out quick, not to mention a healthy dose of the Giants ground game. The effectiveness of that New York backfield is in question with RB Saquon Barkley questionable to play after getting hurt on Sunday. For the 49ers, I look for them to go a little more conservative here as they play on a short week following consecutive road games. This is a game where they should be able to control proceedings from the jump and there should come a point where they can essentially take the air out of the football. While QB Brock Purdy has been efficient through the first two games (and throughout the early stages of his career) he does have a tendency to distribute the football close to the line of scrimmage rather than looking for big plays down field. I expect to see a number of long, clock-eating drives from the 49ers in particular in this one, which of course serves us well with the 'under'. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 131-90 with the Giants coming off an 'over' result, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 42.2 total points. Take the under (10*). |
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09-21-23 | Georgia State v. Coastal Carolina OVER 63 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 51 m | Show |
Sun Belt Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Georgia State and Coastal Carolina at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. This total has been climbing since opening, and for good reason. Coastal Carolina cruised to a 41-24 victory in this matchup last year but I'm anticipating a more competitive affair this time around and that should lend itself to a high-scoring contest. Georgia State actually brought in former Coastal Carolina defensive coordinator Chad Staggs to turn things around on that side of the football. The jury is still out as to whether that will be the case, however. The Panthers have performed well against a pair of bad offenses in Connecticut and Charlotte over the last two games but keep in mind, they gave up 35 points including four touchdowns over a 22-minute stretch against FCS squad Rhode Island in their season-opener. This is a Georgia State defense that has lost a ton of key parts from last year's squad - keeping in mind, last year's defense wasn't very good to begin with. It's a similar story with Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers lost two of their best defenders from a year ago in Jerrod Clark and Josaiah Stewart and again, that was a defense that wasn't very good. Offensively, both teams are loaded and led by experienced quarterbacks in Darren Grainger and Grayson McCall. Not household names by any means but two of the better leaders in the country. While many teams are already dealing with injuries to key players at the skill positions on offense, that's not the case with the Panthers and Chanticleers as they both enter with clean injury reports. In last year's meeting between these teams, Coastal Carolina held onto the football for more than 40 minutes. Yet that contest still produced 65 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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09-17-23 | Raiders v. Bills OVER 47 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 28 h 37 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Las Vegas and Buffalo at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Raiders defense was never really tested in last Sunday's 'upset' win in Denver as the Broncos employed an extremely conservative gameplan. I expect a completely different story to unfold here as the Bills look to bounce back following Monday's ugly overtime loss against the Jets. New York made Buffalo's offense look completely average in that contest but make no mistake, this is still an elite Bills 'O'. The fact that the Raiders held the Broncos to only 16 points on less than 300 total yards simply didn't tell the whole story. Denver actually got most of what it wanted on offense in that contest but rarely pushed the football down the field. There's a path for the Raiders offense to make some headway against the Bills here. Buffalo's defense looked downright awful against the run on Monday night, allowing Jets RB Breece Hall to get loose for big gains on a number of occasions. Las Vegas' offensive gameplan will likely center around RB Josh Jacobs here. While the Raiders will be without WR Jakobi Meyers after he hauled in two touchdown catches last Sunday, that only means more looks for DaVante Adams who remains a gamebreaker despite getting up there in age. The Bills secondary held up fine on Monday against Zach Wilson and while this does figure to be another favorable matchup against Jimmy Garoppolo, I do think Adams can win his share of matchups. Take the over (10*). |
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09-16-23 | Virginia Tech v. Rutgers UNDER 39.5 | Top | 16-35 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 46 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia Tech and Rutgers at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I expect both of these teams to employ a 'hide the quarterback' style of offense on Saturday afternoon in Piscataway. Virginia Tech QB Grant Wells was fine in a favorable Week 1 matchup against a rebuilding Old Dominion defense but he suffered considerable regression last Saturday against Purdue and was ultimately lifted from the game due to an ankle injury (he's questionable to play this week). Backup Kyron Drones entered and completed only 2-of-7 passes. Regardless who is under center against Rutgers on Saturday, this is an extremely difficult draw and one where I fully expect the Hokies to lean toward the run in an effort to effectively shorten this game. The good news for the Hokies is that their defense is fine. Last week against Purdue, Virginia Tech allowed two touchdowns in the game's first 18 minutes but then held the Boilermakers out of the end zone until nearly midway through the fourth quarter. This is a manageable matchup against the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers is off to a perfect 2-0 start, scoring 60 points in the process. With that said, QB Gavin Wimsatt has completed just 27-of-50 passes, throwing for 163 and 198 yards in the first two contests. A lot of that has had to do with game script with the Scarlet Knights controlling proceedings. Here, I do think we see a more competitive affair and like the Hokies, the Scarlet Knights have a vested interest in running the football with Kyle Monangai (he's coming off a 165-yard outburst against Temple) and leaning heavily on their tremendous defense. While Rutgers did score 36 points last week, after reaching the end zone with less than four minutes remaining in the first quarter it didn't record another touchdown until over three minutes into the fourth quarter. Temple came unglued late, allowing two more touchdowns in the game's final six minutes. I do expect Virginia Tech to show a lot more poise and composure than the Owls. With that said, Rutgers has played eight quarters of football so far this season, pitching shutouts in six of those. Take the under (10*). |
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09-10-23 | Jaguars v. Colts OVER 45.5 | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
AFC Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. Last year's matchup between these two AFC South rivals in the friendly confines of Lucas Oil Stadium produced a whopping 61 total points and that was with noodle-armed veteran QB Matt Ryan running the offense for Indianapolis. The Colts were without RB Jonathan Taylor on that day and will be again here. Of course, Ryan is no longer under center for Indy - now it's up to rookie Anthony Richardson. His upside is enormous but there will be growing pains. While this is by no means an ideal Week 1 matchup, I do think Richardson can make enough happen to keep the Colts more competitive than most think. While a clock-control offensive gameplan might make sense for Indy, that will be tough to employ if (and more likely when) they fall behind by a considerable margin. Ryan threw the football 58 times in that aformentioned matchup here last year. Richardson won't approach that pass attempt total here but I still expect him to be forced to throw plenty (which could also potentially lead to turnovers and short fields for the Jaguars offense). Jacksonville is loaded offensively as QB Trevor Lawrence settles in for his third NFL season and second under the guidance of head coach Doug Pederson. The attack only gets stronger with the additions of WR Calvin Ridley and rookie RB Tank Bigsby. After lighting up the Colts defense in last year's two matchups there's reason to believe Lawrence can and will go off again here, keeping in mind the Colts defense arguably got worse in the offseason, certainly at the back-end. I do question, however, whether the Jags even know how to 'take the air out of the football' so to speak. While Jacksonville is understandably a popular road favorite this week, I would hesitate to lay points until it shows me it can manhandle an opponent the caliber of the Colts as it should. Expect Indy to do just enough to keep this one competitive and ultimately help the total along. Take the over (10*). |
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09-02-23 | Washington State v. Colorado State OVER 55.5 | Top | 50-24 | Win | 100 | 54 h 4 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington State and Colorado State at 7 pm et on Saturday. I believe this rematch of last year's 38-7 Washington State rout has shootout potential. The Cougars are one of the more underrated teams in the country entering the 2023 campaign in my opinion. And it all starts with their offense, led by the talented trio of QB Cameron Ward, RB Nakia Watson and WR Lincoln Victor. The Rams didn't have any answers for the Cougars offense in last year's matchup as Washington State raced ahead 28-0 before halftime. A big part of that blowout result was the ineptness of the Colorado State offensive line. Almost in direct response to the brutal showing against Wazzu (the Rams gave up seven sacks in that game), Colorado State re-tooled its offensive line and now boasts an entirely different looking group. I don't expect a Jay Norvell-coached team to stay down for long offensively. The Rams do have some nice pieces in place on offense, including QB Clay Millen who took his lumps as a freshman last year but should be better for it in 2023. I like the way this matchup sets up for the Rams ground attack in particular as they've made improvements in that department as well and can take advantage of a smallish Cougars defensive interior. Noting that the Rams turned the football over twice, managed just 14 first downs and 37 rush yards on 31 attempts, it's incredible that they even managed to score a touchdown in last year's meeting. Expect them to at the very least come up with a response here, while the Cougars should be able to once again name their score against a very beatable Rams defense. Take the over (10*). |
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08-26-23 | Hawaii v. Vanderbilt UNDER 56.5 | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Hawaii and Vanderbilt at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. This matchup was no contest last year as Vanderbilt exploded in the third quarter on its way to a 63-10 rout in Hawaii. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair this year. Given the Rainbow Warriors are guided by head coach and former standout quarterback Timmy Chang, the expectation would be that the Hawaii offense will be high-octane. I simply feel there are too many question marks on that side of the football, including at quarterback and wide receiver to heap on high expectations out of the gate. This is a sneaky-tough matchup against an SEC defense on the rise and I think the Rainbow Warriors main goal will be to possess the football for extended stretches and ultimately keep their defense off the field as much as possible. Speaking of that defense, it was awful last season. I expect this to be a bounce-back year in that department, however, as Hawaii bolstered its secondary by bringing over cornerback Cam Stone from Wyoming and safety Peter Manuma is a budding star after making a splash in his freshman year. The needle is certainly pointing up for Vanderbilt after making positive strides and coming up with a couple of particularly big wins in SEC play last season. While there's talk the experienced but ineffective Ken Seals could still see some action, this is undoubtedly quarterback A.J. Swann's offense. With last year's top running back Ray Davis bolting to Kentucky, the Commodores ground game could be a work-in-progress in the early going. I do think they lean more on Swann's arm (he's not much of a runner) in this particular matchup and then worry about pounding away after building a substantial lead. Again, that's where the Rainbow Warriors improved secondary needs to come in. Defense is where Vandy needs to have the biggest improvement and I believe it will. Vandy brought in Aeneas DiCosmo from Stanford and Prince Kollie from Notre Dame to bolster the pass rush that simply didn't create enough splash plays last season. Losing last year's top tackle Anfernee Orji certainly isn't ideal but I do think there are enough good pieces in place to make this Commodores defense anything but a swinging gate this season. Take the under (10*). |
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01-29-23 | Bengals v. Chiefs OVER 47.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 46 m | Show |
Playoff Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Kansas City at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. Both of last weekend's AFC Divisional Round matchups ended up fizzling from a point-scoring perspective, leading to a pair of 'under' results. I expect a different story to unfold this Sunday as the Bengals and Chiefs do battle in a rematch of last year's AFC Championship Game. While the Bengals ran the football at will in last Sunday's landslide win over the Bills in snowy Buffalo, I expect nothing of the sort against a stout Chiefs run defense here. Cincinnati's path to victory here undoubtedly involves throwing the football at will and doing so in all areas of the field. The Bengals pass protection issues were non-existent last Sunday but will likely play more of a factor here. While one might think that would lead to a lower ceiling for this Bengals offense, I'm not convinced that will be the case. Joe Burrow has routinely carved up the Chiefs defense in three previous matchups between these two teams and I'm confident in Cincinnati's ability to scheme up an offensive gameplan that puts the ball into the hands of its playmakers like Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase. On the flip side, the Chiefs offense also has an apparent low ceiling with QB Patrick Mahomes dealing with a high ankle sprain that looked awfully severe in last Saturday's gutsy win over the Jaguars. With that being said, Mahomes is operating behind a Chiefs offensive line that is only overshadowed by the Eagles in that department as far as teams remaining in the playoffs go. Similarly to the Bengals, I believe the Chiefs best chance at advancing to the Super Bowl comes by putting the ball in the air, again in all areas of the field with guys like do-everything RB Jerick McKinnon and all-universe TE Travis Kelce pacing the offense. The three previous meetings between the Bengals and Chiefs going back to last season have produced 65, 51 and 51 total points. We're working with a reasonably low total here, largely due to the injury to Mahomes and the cluster of injuries on the Bengals offensive line. I believe it will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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01-21-23 | Giants v. Eagles UNDER 48 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 36 h 35 m | Show |
Divisional Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting on Saturday night in Philadelphia. The first meeting between these two teams was a blowout victory in favor of the Eagles, 48-22 in New York back in early December. The rematch wasn't all that notable as the Giants rested their starters in a much lower-scoring defeat. Here, I think we're in line for something in between with the total quite simply proving too high. On a positive note for the Giants, they'll have standout CB Adoree' Jackson on the field for this the third meeting between these two teams this season. Jackson obviously played a big role in last week's 'upset' win in Minnesota, helping stamp out Justin Jefferson's big-play potential. He'll look to do the same against Eagles WR A.J. Brown on Saturday, likely to mixed results. There's no denying the Giants are playing well up front with Kayvon Thibodeaux getting better as the season has gone on. On the flip side, the Eagles boast perhaps the league's best defensive front and should give the Giants offensive line fits all night long. Giants QB Daniel Jones was able to get loose on numerous occasions against the Vikings last week and found plenty of success through the air, just as he did in the teams' regular season matchup. This is a much different challenge, however, and I don't anticipate Jones being afforded a lot of time in the pocket, nor do I expect New York's lukewarm wide receiving corps to enjoy much open field. There is a path for the Giants offense to stay on the field and effectively shorten this game by picking their spots to run with Jones and also work the slot in Avonte Maddox's absence for the Eagles. I'm just not convinced we'll see the Giants end many drives with 7's on the board. We've certainly seen the Eagles jump ahead and then take the air out of the football at times this season. They have that type of offense that can control the football for long periods and I'm confident we'll see that as this game wears on. Running the football figures to be a key part of the Eagles offensive gameplan on Saturday after RB Miles Sanders picked up 155 yards and a pair of scores against the Giants earlier this season. New York can take some solace in the fact that it did effectively stamp out the Vikings ground attack last Sunday, albeit in a much different game script than they're likely to see on Saturday. The first meeting between these two teams this season was the only meaningful one - as I mentioned the Giants rested their starters in the Week 18 rematch. That game saw a closing total of just 44.5 points. Of course, it also featured 70 actual points. I don't think we're in for another high-scoring affair here, however, as the Giants have done enough to instill confidence defensively and the return of Jackson has given them a boost against the pass. Note that since that 48-22 loss to the Eagles on December 11th, the Giants have given up 12, 27, 10, 22 and 24 points. Take the under (10*). |
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01-15-23 | Giants v. Vikings OVER 48 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 2 m | Show |
Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Minnesota at 4:40 pm et on Sunday. When these two teams met back on Christmas Eve they combined to score 51 points in a narrow 27-24 Giants victory. While we've seen a minor adjustment to the total in advance of this rematch, I don't believe it will prove to be enough to keep this one 'under' the total. This game once again pits two of the better and more aggressive offensive minds in the NFL today in head coaches Brian Daboll of the Giants and Kevin O'Connell of the Vikings. Over the course of the season, we saw the Giants offense evolve from a run-oriented, risk-averse unit to a far more aggressive, pass-heavy attack. Never was that more true than in the aforementioned game against the Vikings. In that contest, the G-Men threw the football 40+ times. That's not to say their ground game wasn't effective as well. They racked up 126 rush yards on only 21 attempts. While the Vikings bolstered their offense with the addition of TE T.J. Hockenson prior to the trade deadline, they elected to stand pat defensively and that could ultimately prove to be their downfall in the postseason. Strong safety Harrison Smith, arguably their best defender, continues to play hurt. They've had no answers for opposing passing games, nor have they been able to stop opposing running backs, both on the ground and through the air. I do have a lot of respect for the Giants defense but there's no denying this is a difficult matchup against a multi-faceted Vikings offense. As I mentioned, this has been an even more explosive Vikings offense since acquiring Hockenson from the Detroit. WR Justin Jefferson is as advertised, as is RB Dalvin Cook, who should once again feast on a Giants defense that has struggled to stop the run all season. New York does get back CB Adoree Jackson. It remains to be seen how effective he can be in his first game action since Week 11. Even facing blanket coverage in Week 16 against New York, Jefferson still went off to pace the Vikes offense. Expect a shootout here. Take the over (10*). |
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01-09-23 | TCU v. Georgia UNDER 64 | Top | 7-65 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between TCU and Georgia at 7:30 pm et on Monday. Both CFP semi-final matchups ended up being high-scoring affairs and that's helping this total hold strong approaching the mid-60's. I believe it will prove too high. Lost in TCU's 51-point explosion against Michigan was the fact that it completed just 14-of-29 passes for 225 yards - the second straight games in which the Horned Frogs completed 18 or fewer passes. Their ground game has of course been dominant, led by RB Kendre Miller. It is worth noting that Miller suffered a minor MCL injury in that semi-final against Michigan and now goes against a Georgia defense that has held opponents to just 3.0 yards per rush this season. The Bulldogs check in having allowed more than 94 rushing yards just once in their last six games - that coming in the scare against Ohio State in the CFP semi-final (we won with the Buckeyes in that game). Note that TCU earned itself three extra offensive possessions against Michigan, turning the Wolverines over three times in that contest. They're unlikely to enjoy the same good fortune here, noting that Georgia has turned it over just once in each of its last four games. While the Bulldogs offense has enjoyed tremendous success over their last two games going back to the SEC Championship Game, here we'll note that the 'under' is 9-1 the last 10 times Georgia has played away from home off three straight 'over' results, as is the case here, leading to an average total of only 45.8 points. Take the under (10*). |
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01-08-23 | Rams v. Seahawks OVER 41.5 | Top | 16-19 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Seattle at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The Seahawks offense has actually been struggling lately, despite last week's 23-6 win over the Jets here at home. The Rams down-trodden and injury-ravaged defense should be the cure for what ails them here, however. Teams have been running all over Los Angeles' defense since DT Aaron Donald and space-eater A'Shawn Robinson went down to injury. The Rams have given up 165, 138, 104 and 192 rush yards over their last four contests. That's not to say they've been any stronger against the pass either. Last week, the Chargers lit them up for 24-of-31 passing, good for 7.7 yards per pass attempt and two touchdowns. With all of his weapons at his disposal, Seahawks QB Geno Smith has the potential to go off in this one. The question becomes whether the Rams lukewarm offense can keep up in a potential shootout. They did find some success early in last week's game against the Chargers but once the margin got too large, they essentially took the air out of the football. I do expect a more competitive affair here, noting that the Rams will be looking to avenge an early-December home loss against the division-rival Seahawks. Keep in mind, Seattle hasn't won consecutive matchups in this series since 2016-17. Take the over (10*). |
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01-01-23 | Colts v. Giants UNDER 39 | Top | 10-38 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Indianapolis and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. New York is coming off a relatively high-scoring affair in an indoor setting in Minnesota last Sunday. The Giants have seen consecutive games go 'over' the total only once previously this season though, that coming in a two-game stretch that saw them face the Lions and Cowboys - two distinctly different opponents than they'll face today in the down-trodden Colts. Indianapolis had a tough enough time just getting plays off let alone scoring with Nick Foles at the helm on Monday night against the Chargers. The Colts ran the ball only 14 times and threw it just 29 times in that 20-3 defeat. Needless to say, they'll be interested in shortening this game as much as they can to stay competitive on Sunday. The Giants would be wise to employ a similar gameplan given they've managed to win just once in their last six contests (they've played much better than that record would indicate going 4-2 ATS over that stretch). Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 8-1 with the Giants having lost four or five of their last six games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of only 32.0 points in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
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12-29-22 | Washington v. Texas OVER 67 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 10 m | Show |
Bowl Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Texas at 9 pm et on Thursday. I don't expect either offense to have any trouble moving the football up and down the field, not to mention ending drives with 7's in this 'defense-optional' Bowl matchup. Texas will be without RBs Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson but that should only lead to more passing and there's little reason to expect QB Quinn Ewers to be faced with any sort of resistance against the Huskies sieve-like pass defense. What will be an issue for Texas will be the gaping hole on defense left by the absence of LB DeMarvion Overshown. This isn't a particularly deep defense and Washington certainly has the pieces on offense to take advantage of any weaknesses. Note that the Huskies didn't suffer any sort of drop-off in production at all away from home this season, averaging 4.8 yards per rush and 8.3 yards per pass attempt. It's all systems go for the Huskies here with QB Michael Penix and the rest of his weapons healthy and ready to go. Of note, this will be Penix's first-ever Bowl game and I expect him to show up and show out. Take the over (10*). |
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12-24-22 | Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 47.5 | Top | 34-40 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 39 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Dallas at 4:25 pm et on Saturday. It seems that the Eagles intentions are clear heading into this one as they're expected to give QB Gardner Minshew the start after Jalen Hurts injured his shoulder in last Sunday's win in Chicago. While it doesn't sound like Hurts' injury is all that serious, he's likely to sit as Philadelphia owns a comfortable three-game cushion atop the NFC East. While there are some that believe backup Minshew can keep the train rolling offensively, I'm not in that group. I don't expect the Eagles to put a whole lot on Minshew's plate here. The Eagles still have enough offensive playmakers to churn out some long, clock-eating drives but I question how many of those drives they can end with seven points on the board. The Cowboys probably aren't all that interested in getting involved in another shootout here - not after last week's disappointing overtime loss in Jacksonville. They've now seen the 'over' cash in four straight and six of their last seven games overall but I look for that streak to end here. Note that the first meeting between these two teams totalled 43 points. That was with Cooper Rush at quarterback for the Cowboys of course. I do think we see Dallas scale back its offense a bit here after turning the football over five times in the last two games. While Philadelphia is without Hurts on offense, its defense remains healthy and poised to shoulder the load here. Take the under (10*). |
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12-18-22 | Eagles v. Bears UNDER 48.5 | Top | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. While this game is being pegged as a potential shootout, I believe there's a good chance we see both offenses frustrated on Sunday afternoon at Soldier Field. The Eagles are in a prime letdown spot offensively after scoring a season-high 48 points in last Sunday's rout of the Giants (we won with Philadelphia in that game). The Bears come out fresh off their bye week but with an offense that has regressed, scoring 24, 10 and 19 points over the last three games since putting up 30 or more points in consecutive games earlier in November. The 'over' has actually cashed in each of the Bears last seven contests but this game matches the highest total we've seen over that stretch. For the Eagles, this is the highest total we've seen since October 9th in Arizona - a game that ended up reaching just 37 total points. Both defenses should be familiar with what they'll face on Sunday as quarterbacks Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields are two of the most mobile pivots in the league and the defenses see them operate every day at practice. I believe there's a good chance this develops into a bit of a chess match on Sunday afternoon in the Windy City. Take the under (10*). |
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12-17-22 | Dolphins v. Bills OVER 43 | Top | 29-32 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
AFC Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Buffalo at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'over' in the first meeting between these two AFC East foes this season but probably deserved a better fate after that game got off to a quick start but stalled out thanks to a number of failed red zone trips from the Bills. Miami played keep-away in the south Florida heat on that day in late September, needing to do so to keep its banged-up defense off the field as much as possible. I expect a much different story to unfold in Buffalo on Saturday. Miami has been held down offensively in consecutive losses to the 49ers and Chargers but I expect it to 'get right' here. The Bills are going to be without key run-stopper Jordan Phillips while Matt Milano is banged-up as well. That should open the door for the Fins to restore some offensive balance and ultimately feed Buffalo's front-line a heavy dose of RB Raheem Mostert. The success of Miami's ground game figures to open things up for Tua Tagovailoa and its suddenly dormant passing attack. I'm never all that worried about where the points will come from when it comes to the Bills. They were held in check for the most part against a tough Jets defense last Sunday but should bounce back in sling-shot fashion here. Miami's defense has been good for stretches but has been on the field for an awful lot of football over the last two weeks (thanks to the ineptitude of the offense) and now faces the unenviable task of containing the Bills on a short week, not to mention on the road for the third straight game. This is a blow-up spot for Bills WR Stefon Diggs as Dolphins top corner Xavien Howard hasn't looked right all season due to various injuries. We're seeing a sharp drop from the total in the first meeting this season (that total was set in the low-50's). I don't believe it's warranted. Take the over (10*). |
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12-16-22 | Miami-OH v. UAB OVER 45 | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 41 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami-Ohio and UAB at 11:30 am et on Friday. I can't help but feel this total is way off. Neither of these teams have shown any ability to stop or even slow opposing ground attacks, at least lately in the case of Miami-Ohio and all season long when it comes to UAB. The Blazers boast one of the most underrated or overlooked 1-2 tandems in the backfield in the nation in RBs Dewayne McBride and Jermaine Brown and figure to feast on a Miami-Ohio defense that never really got it together over the course of the season. On the flip side, the Blazers were eviscerated for 172 rush yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush over the course of the season. While the Redhawks backfield hasn't been all that explosive, I do think their ability to run the football should open things up for the passing game here. It's worth noting that three of Miami-Ohio's five highest-scoring performances of the season came in its last four contests. UAB's defense - much like Miami-Ohio's - entered the season with optimism but was never able to truly flourish, allowing 20 or more points in 10 of 11 games against FBS opposition. The only occasion where it did hold an FBS opponent to fewer than 20 points that contest still reached 55 total points in a rout of Middle Tennessee State. Take the over (10*). |
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12-11-22 | Browns v. Bengals OVER 47 | Top | 10-23 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 30 m | Show |
AFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. I think we see a 'slingshot effect' from the Browns offense here in QB Deshaun Watson's second game back under center following a nearly two-year absence from game action. Watson didn't look good against an awful Texans defense last week, but Cleveland still found a way to manufacture 27 points and I do think that bodes well going forward. This is a game where the Browns likely find themselves playing from behind in which case we should see them open the playbook far more than they did last week against Houston. The Bengals offense figures to smash in this spot as they catch an already struggling Browns defense without key run-stopping LB Sione Takitaki. All indications are that RB Joe Mixon will be back on the field and of course Ja'Marr Chase is back healthy as well, ready to go off on a vulnerable Browns secondary. While division games often lead to tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affairs, that hasn't been the case in this particular matchup, at least not in Cincinnati, where the last four meetings have produced 57, 71, 56 and 55 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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12-11-22 | Vikings v. Lions UNDER 52 | Top | 23-34 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 34 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. With Minnesota coming off consecutive 'over' results and Detroit fresh off a high-scoring result of its own last week at home against the Jaguars, I feel this total will prove too high as these two NFC North opponents square off on Sunday afternoon in the Motor City. The Vikings offense really has nowhere to go but down after scoring 60 points combined in consecutive home wins over the Patriots and Jets over the last two weeks. While Detroit's defense was down-trodden earlier in the campaign, this is a unit that has improved as the season has gone on, allowing just 60 points over its last three games combined. Meanwhile, Minnesota has yielded more than 26 points only twice this season with those two poor performances coming in consecutive weeks against the Bills and Cowboys back in November. The Vikes 'D' should be brimming with confidence after saving last week's victory over the Jets with a goal-line stand in the waning seconds. We'll certainly look to fade the Lions offense here after it put up 40 or more points for the second time this season in last week's win over the Jags. The last time Detroit scored 40+ points it followed it up by getting shut out in New England the very next week. While another shutout certainly isn't likely here, I do think both defenses come up with enough stops to keep this one 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
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12-05-22 | Saints v. Bucs UNDER 41.5 | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
NFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'under' between New Orleans and Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll stick with what works here and call for another low-scoring start between the Saints and Buccaneers on Monday night in Tampa. The first time these two teams met this season they combined to score three, yes three, first half points (New Orleans led 3-0 at the break). In fact, the first half 'under' has gone an incredible 10-1 in all Bucs games this season with the only outlier being a wild, high-scoring affair against the Chiefs in Week 4. New Orleans has scored a grand total of 23 first half points in its last four games combined. You would have to go back six games to find the last time it allowed more than 14 points in the first half and that's only happened three times in 12 games so far this season. As for Tampa Bay, you would have to go back eight games to find the last time it put up more than 14 first half points. In fact, it has been held to 10 or fewer first half points in four of its last five contests. Alvin Kamara is one of the Saints lone weapons on offense and he faces a tough matchup here given the fact that the Bucs have all but stamped out opposing running backs, both on the ground and through the air this season. Only one team has allowed fewer catches to opposing running backs, which is obviously Kamara's bread-and-butter. While the Bucs offense showed signs of life last week in Cleveland, this is still very much an under-achieving group facing a revenge-minded Saints squad on Monday. Tom Brady has posted unremarkable results in three of five career matchups against Dennis Allen-coached defenses and just lost one of his best offensive linemen in Tristan Wirfs to an ankle injury. We'll play the first half 'under' only in this spot given the Saints could turn to QB Jameis Winston for a spark against his old team should Andy Dalton struggle early on. Take the first half under (10*). |
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12-04-22 | Browns v. Texans OVER 46.5 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game has shootout potential as the Texans look to avenge last year's 31-21 loss to the Browns. We're dealing with a lower posted total than we saw in last year's meeting but I don't believe the move is warranted. It has everything to do with the fact that the Texans have been involved in a string of relatively low-scoring games with the 'under' cashing in each of their last three contests. The Browns posted an 'under' result last week as well as they pulled out a 23-17 overtime win over the Bucs. Here, Cleveland's offense figures to get a boost from the return of QB Deshaun Watson. While Watson is dealing with returning from a long layoff, he draws an ideal matchup against a Texans defense that has seen things go from bad to worse. Houston checks in having allowed 29, 24, 23 and 30 points over its last four games, getting ethered by both the pass and the run. The Browns held up alright defensively on paper last week against the Bucs, but this is still a vulnerable unit that doesn't do anything particularly well. The Texans will give QB Kyle Allen another start in place of an ineffective Davis Mills. Allen was at least in sync with WR Nico Collins last Sunday, hitting him on six of nine targets. WR Brandin Cooks is expected to miss this game but that's not necessarily a bad thing as he's been virtually invisible this season. RB Dameon Pierce remains the focal point of the Texans offense and he should bounce back with a full workload after being taken out of the gameplan thanks to Houston trailing big early last week in Miami. The Browns have been touched up for 4.8 yards per rush attempt this season. Take the over (10*). |
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12-03-22 | Coastal Carolina v. Troy UNDER 48.5 | Top | 26-45 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
Conference Championship Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Coastal Carolina and Troy at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We got precisely the results we wanted out of both of these teams over the last couple of games to set us up exceptionally well with the 'under' in this Sun Belt Conference Championship matchup on Saturday. Both teams saw their last two contests go 'over' the total, not only that, but both were turnover-prone in their respective regular season finale, leading them to perhaps approach this game with a little more caution than they might have otherwise. For Coastal Carolina, there's certainly reason to go ultra-conservative on offense in this game with QB Jarrett Guest struggling since taking over for NFL prospect Grayson McCall. Guest was directly responsible for two turnovers in each of the last two games (his two starts since McCall went down with a season-ending injury). Facing an opportunistic and perennially-tough Troy defense here, the Chanticleers won't want to leave anything to chance, perhaps putting this game largely in the hands of their defense (which is in line for a strong bounce-back effort after a poor performance against James Madison last week). Troy hung 48 points on the scoreboard in last week's rout of hapless Arkansas State. Keep in mind, however, that the Trojans actually didn't reach the end zone for a second time in that game until there were less than five minutes remaining in the third quarter. Like Guest, Troy QB Gunnar Watson has also been mistake-prone tossing an interception to go along with a lost fumble in last week's contest. The Trojans, like the Chanticleers, want to run the football, but will be running into a Coastal Carolina defense that has held up reasonably well against the run this season, allowing 4.0 yards per rush overall and 3.7 away from home. Down the stretch the Chanticleers stiffened up against opposing ground attacks, yielding fewer than 90 rushing yards in three of their last four games. Coastal Carolina has put up 36, 42 and 35 points in winning the last three meetings in this series but they didn't match up in the regular season this year, and we're obviously talking about much different Chanticleers squads, certainly in those games with McCall at the helm of the offense. Noting that Troy has held seven straight opponents to fewer than 20 points but also finds itself in a letdown of sorts offensively off its highest-scoring performance of the season, we'll confidently back the 'under' on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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12-01-22 | Bills v. Patriots UNDER 43.5 | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
AFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and New England at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in the Bills Thanksgiving Day victory in Detroit last Thursday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they stay on the road to face the division-rival Patriots in Foxborough. While Buffalo has still put up 30, 31 and 28 points over its last three contests, it hasn't looked totally in-sync. Whether that has to do with Josh Allen's injury is up for debate. With the Patriots having had an extra couple of days to prepare for this tall task, I do think we'll see their defense, which is still underrated at this late stage of the season in my opinion, keep Allen and Co. in check, relatively-speaking at least. I'm willing to chalk up last week's allowance of 33 points in Minnesota as an aberration as the Pats suffered a 'shock to the system' of sorts after facing the Jets (twice) and Colts over a three-week span heading in. I think we see their defense bounce back here. On the flip side, the Pats have gone fairly conservative offensively ever since Mac Jones orchestrated a turnover-fest against the Bears in a Monday nighter in late October. Since then, the Pats have turned the football over just twice in four games, without a single TO in their last two. While the Bills are known for their offense, they can play elite defense as well and while losing Von Miller to an injury hurts, the rest of the defense is as healthy as it's been in quite some time off the extended week. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 in Bills road games this season. We've also seen the 'under' go 6-1 with Buffalo coming off consecutive games totalling 50 or more points over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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11-24-22 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss UNDER 60.5 | Top | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 29 h 21 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Mississippi State and Ole Miss at 7 pm et on Thursday. While this isn't Army-Navy, these two teams have now gone 'under' each of the last five times they've met over the last five seasons. I'm expecting that trend to continue on Thursday. The Bulldogs offense hasn't been the same high-octane scoring machine it was earlier in the campaign. Yes, they exploded for 56 points last Saturday, but that was against FCS squad East Tennessee State. They were held to fewer than 20 points in three of four games prior to that and in the other scored only three offensive touchdowns in regulation time against Auburn. It's been a similar story for Ole Miss as its offense has struggled as the schedule has toughened up. Last Saturday against Arkansas, the Rebels didn't score a touchdown until nearly a minute into the fourth quarter, when the game was already well in hand for the Razorbacks, up 42-6. Two games back against Alabama, Ole Miss couldn't muster a single point from seven minutes remaining in the third quarter on. Even the game prior to that, an eventual 31-28 win over Texas A&M, the Rebels scored a touchdown less than two minutes into the game but then didn't reach the end zone again until nearly midway through the third quarter. Take the under (10*). |
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11-24-22 | Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 45.5 | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Dallas at 4:30 pm et on Thursday. Last Thanksgiving, we saw the Cowboys fall in a wild, high-scoring shootout against the Raiders (in overtime) but I expect a much different story to unfold in this year's instalment as Dallas draws a divisional foe in the New York Giants. Of course, the Giants allowed a season-high 31 points in last Sunday's home loss against the Lions. While they're dealing with some key injuries in the secondary, I do expect them to at the very least do a better job of defending the Cowboys than the Vikings did last Sunday (we won with Dallas and the 'under' in that game). The presence of DT Leonard Williams has certainly made a difference for New York's run defense, noting that it has held opponents to 4.3 yards per rush over the last three games (5.3 ypr allowed this season). Don't count on the Giants abandoning the run the way the Vikings did against Dallas last Sunday (that was largely game-script related as they fell behind big early). While RB Saquon Barkley hasn't been his usual dominant self in recent weeks, the G-Men will still want to get all they can out of him in an effort to churn out long, clock-eating drives to effectively shorten this contest as double-digit underdogs. New York, unlike Minnesota, also has a mobile quarterback that can help in minimizing the effectiveness of Dallas' ferocious pass rush. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 the last seven times the Giants have come off a game in which they allowed 31 or more points, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 31.5 points in that situation. Take the under (10*). |
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11-24-22 | Bills v. Lions UNDER 54.5 | Top | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 25 h 4 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Detroit at 12:30 pm et on Thursday. This is the highest posted total on this week's NFL board and I believe it will prove too high at Ford Field on Thursday afternoon. The Bills offense 'should' have its way with a weak Lions defense in this one but I can't help but feel their ceiling is somewhat capped by QB Josh Allen's nagging elbow injury. He's coming off a poor performance against a very beatable Browns defense last Sunday and now plays on a short week, knowing he'll need to be somewhat cautious against an opportunistic Lions defense that has forced seven turnovers in the last three games. With injury concerns on their offensive line, I'm not expecting much from the Lions offense here. Speaking of capped ceilings, that's precisely what we've seen from Detroit's offense with QB Jared Goff at the helm. Note that while the Lions have scored 31 points in consecutive games, they've completed just 14, 19 and 17 passes for 137, 228 and 165 passing yards over their last three contests. I can't help but feel the optimal gameplan here involves making running backs Jamaal Williams and DeAndre Swift the focal point on Thursday afternoon, in an effort to churn out long, clock-eating drives to effectively shorten proceedings as a two-score underdog. Detroit's recent scoring spike has also had something to do with the fact that it has turned the football over just once over its last four games. It will need to be cautious here, however, noting that Buffalo has forced at least one turnover in seven straight games. Take the under (10*). |
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11-21-22 | 49ers v. Cardinals UNDER 43.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
NFC West Total of the Month (1H). My selection is on the first half 'under' between San Francisco and Arizona at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The 49ers have generally been slow starters offensively this season, scoring more than 14 points in the first half only once through their first seven games. While we won with the first half 'over' in last week's eventual victory over the Chargers, I won't hesitate to go the other way as they head to Mexico to face the Cardinals on Monday night. Arizona came up with its best defensive effort in weeks in a 27-17 victory over the Rams last week. I actually don't mind Colt McCoy at quarterback given the team's current state as he doesn't tend to stretch out plays and force the offensive line to block for extended periods the same way Kyler Murray does (McCoy also lacks Murray's elusiveness and mobility of course). This is obviously a favorable matchup for the 49ers vaunted defense but I do think the Cards can do enough to extend some drives and eat some clock early on. Meanwhile, the 49ers offense remains somewhat capped in terms of its ceiling with QB Jimmy Garropolo at the helm. My concern for the full game 'under' in this one is that the Cards defense wears down and ends up getting exposed by San Francisco's ground attack and middle-of-the-field passing attack as the game goes on. Early, I do think the Cards can hang, however. Here, we'll note that the first half 'under' is 8-2 with the Niners coming off four or five wins in their last six games over the last three seasons and 5-1 with the Cards following up consecutive 'over' results over the same stretch. Take the first half under (10*). |
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11-20-22 | Chiefs v. Chargers OVER 52 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
AFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. The first matchup between these teams came back in Week 2 and was not surprisingly pegged as a shootout but fizzled somewhat as the Chiefs pulled out a 27-24 victory that stayed just 'under' the total. While both offenses are missing or dealing with some banged-up key pieces, I believe we're in for a true back-and-forth shootout in Sunday night's rematch. Kansas City's offense keeps rolling along with a 'next man up' philosophy, particularly at the wide receiver position where QB Patrick Mahomes serves as a true talent-elevator. The Chiefs backfield has been a revolving door this season as well but should feast on a Chargers defense that hasn't been able to even slow opposing running games this season and now deals with a cluster of injuries along its defensive line. Los Angeles is expected to have wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams back on the field on Sunday. Regardless whether they're 100% healthy, their presence alone should give the offense a much-needed boost after it stalled in the second half against the 49ers last week. QB Justin Herbert has fared exceptionally well against this Chiefs defense in recent years and should be in for another boxscore-stuffing performance on Sunday night. Given Kansas City's tendency to allow opposing running backs to get loose in the short passing game, Chargers RB Austin Ekeler sets up well to go off in this matchup as well. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 8-1 in the Chargers last nine games following a road loss, resulting in an average total of 55.3 points. Take the over (10*). |
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11-20-22 | Cowboys v. Vikings UNDER 48.5 | Top | 40-3 | Win | 100 | 50 h 27 m | Show |
NFC Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Minnesota at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Most have this game projected as a shootout between two of the NFC's elite teams in the friendly confines of U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. I'm not so easily convinced. Both teams are coming off poor defensive performances last week with the Cowboys coming away with an overtime loss against the down-trodden Packers and the Vikings coming from behind to defeat the Super Bowl-contending Bills, also in overtime. While Minnesota's defense continues to give up a ton of yardage to opposing offenses, it has done a reasonable job of limiting points, and more specifically touchdowns. Note that last week marked the first time all season the Vikings had yielded more than 26 points in a game. They haven't posted consecutive 'over' results since a three-game 'over' streak from Weeks 3 through 5. The Cowboys have one of the better defenses in the league but haven't shown it in the last couple of games against the Bears and Packers. That's been somewhat game-script dependent as they've been playing from ahead most of the way (something they don't necessarily project to do here in this near pk'em priced contest). Note that Dallas enters this game leading the NFL in sacks per game and only two teams have held the opposition to fewer yards per pass play. While you can run on these Cowboys, it seems that opponents are rarely able to resist the urge to test their aggressive pass defenders, often leading to negative results. Here, we'll note that the Cowboys have checked in as a road favorite of a field goal or less only twice over the last three seasons and both of those games stayed 'under' the total. The 'under' is also 9-4 in the Vikings last 13 games after scoring 30 or more points in their previous contest and 25-12 the last 37 times they've played at home after winning six or seven of their last eight games, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 42.0 points. Take the under (10*). |
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11-19-22 | Virginia Tech v. Liberty UNDER 47 | Top | 23-22 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia Tech and Liberty at 12 noon et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up as a low-scoring affair between the down-trodden Hokies and upstart Flames on Saturday afternoon. Virginia Tech won two of its first three games this season but has gone winless in seven games since. While you might not know it by last week's 24-7 loss to Duke, I don't think the Hokies have quit on the season. This is still a talented defensive team at the very least and one that can relish the role of spoiler in the final two games of the regular season. Note that for as bad as things have gone for the Hokies and for as little the offense has been able to produce and stay on the field, they've actually held their last four opponents to 20, 22, 28 and 24 points. There was a stretch in late-September and early-October where their defense got worn down but we have seen that unit regroup and play the way it can lately. Now it faces a Liberty offense that has kept rolling along despite missing a number of key contributors due to injuries, including its top two quarterbacks on the depth chart and standout RB Dae Dae Hunter. The 'next man up' philosophy on that side of the football certainly worked last week as the Flames scored 33 points, albeit in a losing effort against UConn. They will face a tougher defensive challenge here, and I would anticipate perhaps a more conservative, ball control type of offensive gameplan given QB Jonathan Bennett's turnover-prone nature so far. The Liberty defense suffered a letdown against the Huskies last week but that was to be expected after holding Arkansas to 19 points in a stunning upset win the week previous. Note that Liberty has still held three of its last four opponents to 20 points or less and should be able to contain a Hokies offense that scored a touchdown less than two minutes in against Duke last week but then never hit the scoresheet again. Take the under (10*). |
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11-13-22 | Chargers v. 49ers OVER 45 | Top | 16-22 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
SNF Total of the Year (1H). My selection is on the first half 'over' between Los Angeles and San Francisco at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. I believe this sets up as a smash spot for the 49ers offense against a Chargers defense that has been plagued by a number of key injuries and absolutely shredded by opposing ground attacks, allowing north of 6.0 yards per rush this season. Coming off their bye week and with all of their weapons healthy, including all-world o-lineman Trent Williams, the potential is there for Kyle Shanahan's offense to go off in this spot. I'll play the first half 'over' only as I do think there's a good chance the game becomes lopsided, in which case the Chargers would likely stray away from their effective ground game with RB Austin Ekeler while the 49ers could elect to take the air out of the football. The Niners opened the season with their first four games totalling just 20, 10, 20 and 20 first half points. Since then, their last three contests have reached 35, 27 and 24 points in the first half. Relatively high-scoring first halves have been commonplace for the Chargers this season as their games have reached 17, 23, 34, 38, 23, 38 and 24 points in the first 30 minutes. We can't ignore the Niners defensive injuries, which are numerous, opening the door for the Chargers to at least scheme up positive plays early in this contest. Again, my concern is that the visitors get forced to move away from a more balanced attack as the game progresses, noting that they're without their two top receivers in Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. Take the first half over (10*). |
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11-13-22 | Texans v. Giants OVER 40.5 | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Texans aren't shying away from handing rookie RB Dameon Pierce a heavy workload as the centerpiece of their offense and that should pay dividends against a Giants defense that has given up a whopping 5.4 yards per rush this season. Houston's offense also gets back underrated WR Nico Collins for this one while it remains to be seen whether Brandin Cooks will return to the field or not. Regardless, I do think the Texans can make some headway, likely playing catch-up most of the day on Sunday. Speaking of bad run defenses, Houston has arguably been even worse than New York in that department. No team has given up more rushing yards or rushing touchdowns this season. That opens the door for another monster performance from Giants RB Saquon Barkley here. Of course, the Giants offense goes as Barkley goes and off their bye week I'm confident they'll get back on track here. Note that prior to losing 27-13 in Seattle last time out (we won with the Seahawks in that game), New York had scored 20+ points in four straight games. Even with a limited passing game, there's reason to believe Daniel Jones can have a one-off breakout performance against a Texans pass defense that has been flamed for 48-of-64 passing over their last three contests. Take the over (10*). |
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11-12-22 | San Jose State v. San Diego State UNDER 41.5 | Top | 27-43 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 43 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose State and San Diego State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. I can't help but feel San Diego State's 32-28 loss to Fresno State two games back served as a 'watershed moment' for the team. The Aztecs leaned heavily on their defense last Saturday, prevailing by a 14-10 score over UNLV (we won with Rebels ATS in that game). With a severely disjointed offense, San Diego State will likely need to continue to ride its defense hard down the stretch and I think it's catching San Jose State at the right time here, as the Spartans are likely in for a letdown after scoring 35 and 28 points over their last two games. San Jose State can play some defense as well. The Spartans have incredibly held six of eight opponents to 17 or fewer points this season. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has cashed in six of their eight contests. Noting that last year's meeting between these two teams produced a grand total of just 32 points, I'm comfortable playing the 'under' again here, even as we work with a relatively low number. Take the under (10*). |
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11-12-22 | South Carolina v. Florida UNDER 59.5 | Top | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 51 h 20 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between South Carolina and Florida at 4 pm et on Saturday. South Carolina's offense got off to a roaring start this season, scoring 30+ points in four of its first five games. That had a lot to do with a very manageable non-conference schedule, however. Since then, the Gamecocks have put up 24, 30, 10 and 38 points with the latter performance coming against one of the worst defensive teams in the country in Vanderbilt last Saturday. Florida's defense has been ripped by the likes of Tennessee and Georgia but there's no shame in that. Outside of those two poor performances, the Gators 'D' has held up reasonably well and I'm confident it can stand up against what I still consider to be a fading Gamecocks offense (note that South Carolina gained four extra possessions thanks to turnovers last week and still scored 'only' 38 points against an awful Vandy defense). Florida is coming off a 41-point outburst in a win over Texas A&M last week but I don't think this is an offense built to deliver those type of point explosions on a regular basis. Note that the Gators have been held to 18 or fewer pass completions in five consecutive games, despite trailing most of the way in two of those contests. While the 'over' has cashed in five straight meetings in this series, those games topped out at 66 points so not all that much higher than the number we're dealing with here. Also note that only three of those five contests surpassed Saturday's total (at the time of writing). Take the under (10*). |
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11-11-22 | Colorado v. USC UNDER 66.5 | Top | 17-55 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 48 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and USC at 9:30 pm et on Friday. After getting involved in three straight high-scoring shootouts - two resulting in victories - I can't help but feel the Trojans are looking to catch their breath in what should be a layup against lowly Colorado on Friday. USC needed all the offense it could get in posting wild wins over Arizona and California over the last two weeks. Here, it finally finds itself back in a 'name your score' type of contest against a Buffaloes squad licking its wounds off a 49-10 dismantling at the hands of Oregon last Saturday. Colorado has been held to 20 or fewer points in eight of nine games this season with the only outlier coming in a 42-34 loss to Arizona State two weeks ago - a game where the Buffaloes still mustered only 359 total yards of offense. While USC's offense has been rolling along, there has been an apparent ceiling with it topping out at 45 points over its last eight games (it did score 66 in its season-opener against Rice). I'm not convinced that will be enough to get this one 'over' the lofty total as Colorado isn't likely to end many drives with 7's against a talented Trojans defense that should be in a foul mood after allowing 35 points against an oft-punchless Cal offense last Saturday. You would have to go back seven meetings in this series, all the way to 2014, to find the last time these two teams combined to put up more than 66 total points (which is the posted total at the time of writing). Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 3-0 the last three times Colorado has come off consecutive losses against Pac-12 opponents in which it yielded 31+ points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 5-1 in USC's last six contests after gaining 450+ total yards in consecutive games, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-09-22 | Buffalo v. Central Michigan UNDER 54.5 | Top | 27-31 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 12 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Central Michigan at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the 'under' in both of these teams' games last week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Bulls and Chippewas match up on Wednesday. Buffalo turned the football over three times in its 45-24 road loss against Ohio last week. Interestingly, the Bulls have forced a whopping eight turnovers over their last two games yet still scored 'only' 58 points combined in those contests. You would have figured all of those extra possessions would lead to more of a points explosion. Here, they'll be facing a Central Michigan squad that will be ultra-focused on taking care of the football after turning it over a whopping eight times itself over its last two games. It's also interesting to note that despite the Chips giving their last two opponents all of those extra possessions they 'only' gave up 56 points over those two games. Both teams want to run the football. Note that Buffalo hasn't thrown for 300+ yards since back on September 10th against FCS squad Holy Cross. Meanwhile, Central Michigan hasn't thrown for 300+ yards since Week 1 against Oklahoma State when it was in comeback mode for most of the game and racked up 424 yards through the air. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-2 in Buffalo's last 12 games when playing on the road after a road loss against a MAC opponent, resulting in an average total of just 50.1 points in that situation. The 'under' is also 4-2 in the Bulls last six games after their previous two contests totalled 60+ points. CMU has seen the 'under' cash four of the last times it has come off a game where it lost the turnover battle by at least two. Take the under (10*). |
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11-07-22 | Ravens v. Saints UNDER 47 | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 54 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Year (1H). My selection is on the first half ‘under’ between Baltimore and New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Monday. With both teams missing a number of key contributors on offense and both confident off wins last week, not looking to relinquish the momentum here, I’m anticipating a relatively low-scoring first half on Monday night in New Orleans. Note that the first half ‘under’ is a perfect 6-0 with Baltimore coming off three ATS losses in its last four games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average first half total of just 13.3 points. Meanwhile, the first half ‘under’ is 11-3 with the Saints listed as an underdog over the last two seasons, which is also the situation here, leading to an average first half total of 19.9 points in that spot. Without Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman - their two biggest offensive threats apart from Lamar Jackson - I look for the Ravens to take a more methodical approach on offense, at least early in this game. Meanwhile, the Saints will be wary of QB Andy Dalton's tendency to turn the ball over (remembering that ugly Thursday night loss in Arizona two games back) against an opportunistic Ravens defense. I'm confident we'll see the Saints offense run through RB Alvin Kamara for the most part on Monday, noting that the Ravens have yielded 4.4 yards per rush this season. New Orleans best chance at winning this game likely comes from churning out long, clock-eating drives in an effort to shorten the game and give Jackson as few opportunities as possible to make an impact. Take the first half ‘under’ (10*). |
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11-06-22 | Packers v. Lions UNDER 49.5 | Top | 9-15 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
NFC Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Green Bay and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Lions home loss to the Dolphins last week and were fortunate to do so as Detroit's offense was non-existent for the entire second half. Here, both teams know exactly what to expect from their opponent in this divisional showdown. The Packers defense has been putting the clamps on opposing passing games but has proven vulnerable against the run. Detroit quite simply hasn't shown any tendency to stick with the run, abandoning it on a weekly basis, albeit somewhat game script dependent. Detroit's defense didn't have any answers for the Dolphins multi-pronged offensive attack last week but catch a break here, facing a depleted Packers offense that hasn't been able to get it going for any sustained periods this season. Last year's two matchups in this series were of the high-scoring variety. I think we see a different story here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-05-22 | California v. USC UNDER 60.5 | Top | 35-41 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 58 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between California and USC at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. After getting involved in consecutive track meets on the road against Utah and Arizona, I look for USC to 'manage' this very winnable matchup with Cal on Saturday. The Golden Bears are mired in another trying campaign having lost four in row entering Saturday's matchup. They've had only two breakout performances offensively, one of those coming against FCS squad Cal-Davis and the other against the aforementioned Arizona Wildcats, who boast one of the worst defenses in the FBS. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 39-21 in Cal's last 60 road games following an 'over' result, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 52.9 points in that spot. The 'under' is also 28-14 in USC's last 42 contests after scoring 37+ points in consecutive games, which is also the situation here, resulting in 54.9 total points on average. Take the under (10*). |
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11-05-22 | Iowa v. Purdue OVER 38 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 50 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Iowa and Purdue at 12 noon et on Saturday. Iowa opened the season with four 'under' results in its first five games but that changed in a 54-10 rout at Ohio State two weeks ago. That was a bit of a back-breaker of a defeat and from there we saw the Hawkeyes essentially ease off the pressure valve and the result was a 33-point explosion in a 20-point win over Northwestern last week. Now Iowa goes back on the road to face Purdue, and I'm not anticipating the type of defensive slugfest the oddsmakers are projecting. Note that we've seen a strong home-road dichotomy in terms of high and low-scoring games involving the Boilermakers in recent years. That's continued to a certain extent this year. Note that the Boilers have baited the likes of Penn State and Nebraska into back-and-forth shootouts here at home with those two contests totalling 66 and 80 points. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 16-6 in Iowa's last 22 games after losing three of its last four games, resulting in an average total of 50.5 points. Meanwhile, the Boilers have seen their last six games go 'over' the total after winning four or five of their last six contests, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 69.3 points in that spot. Take the over (10*). |
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11-01-22 | Buffalo v. Ohio UNDER 58.5 | Top | 24-45 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Ohio at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. While Buffalo is coming off an 'over' result, both of these teams are trending to the 'under' lately. The Bulls have seen three of their last four games stay 'under' the total and the same goes for Ohio. The only game that went 'over' the total during that stretch for the Bobcats came against the lowly Akron Zips in a contest where Ohio jumped ahead big early and eased off the gas defensively in a wild 55-34 win. Since then, the Bobcats have seen their last two games total just 47 and 41 points. Both teams want their offense to run through their ground attack. I do think both can find some success in that regard but that likely leads to plenty of long, clock-churning drives. Note that Buffalo has done an excellent job of stamping out opposing passing games, yielding more than 21 completions only twice while having yet to allow an opponent throw for 300+ yards. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 19-6 the last 25 times Ohio has come off three straight wins in conference play with that spot producing an average total of only 45.9 points. The 'under' has gone 8-5 the last 13 times the Bulls have come off a game that totalled 60+ points, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-31-22 | Bengals v. Browns UNDER 45.5 | Top | 13-32 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Cleveland at 8:15 pm et on Monday. High-scoring games have been the norm in this series in recent years but I look for a different story to unfold on Monday night in Cleveland. The Browns offense has cooled off considerably following a hot start to the season. After scoring 26, 30 and 29 points in their first three games, they've put up just 20, 28, 15 and 20 points over their last four. Now they face a Bengals defense that I believe is far better than most give it credit for. The Cincinnati offense gets all of the hype with Joe Burrow and Ja'marr Chase going off on a weekly basis (Chase will of course miss this game - more on that in a moment). However, the defense has been outstanding, holding five of seven opponents to 20 points or less this season. Opposing passing games have been completely stymied and it's tough to envision Browns QB Jacob Brissett changing that trend, especially with underrated TE David Njoku slated to miss. Cleveland has topped out at 258 passing yards in a game this season. You know what you're going to get from the Browns as they look to run their offense through RB Nick Chubb (and Kareem Hunt). Theoretically, Cleveland is in line to feast with the Bengals missing key run stoppers D.J. Reader and Josh Tupou. However, rookie Zach Carter and Jay Tufele have stepped up in their absence. I mentioned that Cincinnati will be without WR Ja'marr Chase for this one. His absence can't be understated in my opinion. Yes, the Bengals are saying all of the right things with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, not to mention TE Hayden Hurst capable of picking up some of the slack. But you just don't replace a guy like Chase. With CB Denzel Ward among those sidelined for the Browns, this is a major break facing the Bengals without their top weapon in the passing game. I really think the Cincinnati offense will flow through RB Joe Mixon in this game as the Browns have proven vulnerable against the run. With that being said, I can't help but feel we'll see plenty of long, clock-churning drives from both offenses. Note that the 'under' is 12-3 in the Bengals last 15 road games and a perfect 10-0 in Cincinnati's last 10 games after being held to fewer than 100 rushing yards in consecutive games, as is the case here. The 'under' is a long-term 48-25 with the Browns playing at home off consecutive losses and 13-4 when playing at home after losing the turnover battle in three straight games. Those angles make sense when you consider the Bengals will likely look to get their ground game going again, most notably Mixon while the Browns do everything they can to take care of the football, perhaps at the expense of aggressiveness in the passing game. Take the under (10*). |
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10-30-22 | Dolphins v. Lions OVER 51 | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 76 h 44 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. I absolutely love the way this one sets up as a potential shootout inside the friendly confines of Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday. We inexplicably missed with the 'over' in Miami's strange 16-10 win over the Steelers last Sunday night (that contest featured a scoreless second half). The Dolphins jumped ahead early and then eased off the gas against a subpar Steelers squad - something I don't think they can afford to do against the Lions on Sunday. We were also on the 'under' in Detroit's rather uneventful loss in Dallas. I saw a lot of support for the 'over' in that contest last Sunday but I think those 'over' bettors were a week too early as Detroit was still nursing some key contributors back to health (and also lost Aman-Ra St. Brown to concussion protocols early in the game). St. Brown is expected back this week and should pace the Lions in what sets up as a dream matchup against a depleted Dolphins secondary. Detroit has been starved for an offensive breakout over the last two games - scoring a grand total of six points against the Patriots and Cowboys. This looks like an ideal spot for QB Jared Goff and the offense to bounce back with Miami missing Byron Jones, Nik Needham and now strong safety Brandon Jones as well after he tore his ACL. The Fins makeshift secondary did hold up alright against the Steelers, although Pittsburgh wasn't all that aggressive in that game. I expect a different story to unfold here as a banged-up Xavien Howard (he's been dealing with groin/quad injuries all season long) is left on an island against a loaded Lions offense. On the flip side, there's little reason to believe that Detroit's woeful defense can hold up well for a second straight game. We certainly saw flashes of brilliance from the Miami offense in last Sunday's win over the Steelers. QB Tua Tagovailoa looked no worse for wear after suffering multiple concussions, deftly distributing the ball to his playmakers. The Lions have been getting roasted by the better offenses they've faced all season, most notably allowing 5.4 yards per rush attempt. With Miami likely to smash on the ground, that only serves to set up plenty of big plays through the air against a very beatable Lions secondary. I think there's a good chance we see this one go back-and-forth all afternoon long with neither defense able to string together many stops. Note that the 'over' is 7-3 in the Dolphins last 10 games following consecutive 'under' results, which is the situation here. Better still, the 'over' is 9-2 in the Lions last 11 games when priced as a home underdog of a touchdown or less. Take the over (10*). |
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10-29-22 | USC v. Arizona UNDER 76 | Top | 45-37 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 34 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between USC and Arizona at 7 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in Arizona's most recent game - a wild 49-39 loss against the Huskies in Washington two weeks ago. I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as the Wildcats return home to host USC off their bye week on Saturday. The fact that Arizona was able to keep pace (to a certain extent) with Washington was no big surprise as that's been the Huskies M.O. this season - jump ahead and then let their opponent back in the game. The Wildcats have bombed away for 400+ passing yards against the likes of Cal, Colorado and Washington but I suspect they'll have a much more difficult time doing so against the well-rested Trojans here. USC is coming off a wild game of its own, falling by a 43-42 score on the road against Utah on October 15th. That marked the first time this season that USC allowed more than 257 yards through the air and I'm confident it will make amends here. Note that the Trojans have topped out at 42 points in three road games this season and I'm not sure even that crooked number would be enough to get this one 'over' the lofty total. I don't think USC wants to get involved in another track meet here, knowing that Arizona does have the QB in Jayden De Laura and receiving corps to potentially pull off a stunner. Instead, I look for the Trojans to lean on their ground attack, as they often have this season (they've topped out at 25 pass completions in a game), churning out long, clock-churning drives in an effort to shorten proceedings and stamp out any hope of a Wildcats upset. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 53-31 with USC coming off a game in which it scored 42+ points while the 'under' is 21-9 in Arizona's last 30 home contests after dropping consecutive games in-conference, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-29-22 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas State UNDER 56 | Top | 0-48 | Win | 100 | 53 h 51 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma State and Kansas State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. After suffering a bad beat with the 'under' in Oklahoma State's double-overtime loss at TCU two weeks ago we went back to the well with the same play as the Cowboys returned home to host Texas last week. Unfortunately that result didn't go our way either as a high-scoring first half was ultimately the downfall for 'under' bettors such as ourselves. Here, I won't hesitate to take another shot with the 'under', however, as the Cowboys head back on the road to face upstart Kansas State, which checks in off a 38-28 loss to TCU last Saturday. In that loss against TCU, Kansas State lost do-it-all QB Adrian Martinez to injury. It remains to be seen whether he can play this week although it sounds like he's on the doubtful end of the spectrum. Regardless, I do expect the Oklahoma State defense to step up and carry over some positive momentum after holding Texas out of the end zone over the game's final 33+ minutes in a tight affair last week. It was the opposite story for Kansas State. It jumped ahead 28-10 in the second quarter against TCU and probably thought it would be able to cruise from there. Things didn't go as planned as the Horned Frogs went on to score the game's final 28 points in a 10-point victory. Without Martinez, the Wildcats were unable to score over the game's final 38+ minutes. Note that none of the last four meetings between these two teams over the last four years have come all that close to getting 'over' the total we're dealing with this week. The fact that the Cowboys have seen each of their last five games and six of seven overall go 'over' the total this season is a big reason why we're being offered such a generous total. Keep in mind, Kansas State is just one game removed from a contest that totalled just 19 points against Iowa State. Earlier in the season, the Wildcats were upset at home against Tulane in a game that reached only 27 points. Noting that the 'under' remains 40-23 in Oklahoma State's last 63 road games following an 'over' result and 35-17 the last 52 times it has gone 'away' off consecutive games totalling 70+ points, we'll go back to the well with the 'under' on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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10-29-22 | Ohio State v. Penn State UNDER 61.5 | Top | 44-31 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 3 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Ohio State and Penn State at 12 noon et on Saturday. Ohio State has been tearing through the opposition, scoring 45 points or more in all six games since putting up only 21 points in a low-scoring win over Notre Dame to open the campaign. Here, I do think there's a path for Penn State to stay competitive and ultimately do a reasonably good job of keeping the Buckeyes defense under wraps. Note that while Ohio State did score 54 points in a rout of Iowa last week, a lot of the Hawkeyes issues were self-inflicted. After scoring a touchdown around midway through the first quarter, Ohio State didn't reach the end zone again on offense until more than five minutes into the third quarter. Penn State bounced back nicely from a drubbing a the hands of Michigan one week previous, delivering a 45-17 rout of Minnesota on Saturday. Note that the Nittany Lions didn't allow a touchdown in that game until they were already ahead 17-3 with less than a minute remaining in the first half. The Golden Gophers didn't score again until nearly midway through the fourth quarter, already trailing by a score of 38-10 at the time. Note that Penn State has held five of its last six opponents to 17 points or less. Of course Ohio State poses a serious challenge and will undoubtedly score its share of points in this contest, but I don't anticipate Penn State getting ripped the way it did against Michigan's run-heavy attack two weeks ago. Offensively, the Nittany Lions gameplan should involve orchestrating long, clock-churning drives in an effort to shorten this contest and keep the ball out of the hands of the high-powered Ohio State offense. I do think that's well within the realm of possibility with seasoned QB Sean Clifford running the offense. The Nittany Lions were able to possess the football for 29:50 in last year's matchup and that was despite getting virtually nothing from their ground attack. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 33-17 in Penn State's last 50 games played at home following a home victory, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of just 49.0 points. Take the under (10*). |
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10-28-22 | East Carolina v. BYU UNDER 61.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 105 h 2 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between East Carolina and BYU at 8 pm et on Friday. I don't think this is anywhere near the type of track meet that most are expecting as it's actually a critical game for both teams as far as potential Bowl standing goes. East Carolina is coming off a massive upset win over Central Florida on Saturday. The Knights had owned the Pirates for years and certainly entered the game playing well (including scoring 70 points in their previous contest) so that was an uplifting result for ECU to be sure. Credit the Pirates defense in that game as the only touchdown it allowed came when leading by a 17-3 score in the third quarter. ECU has certainly given up its share of yardage to opposing offenses but it has that ball-hawking ability, having forced six turnovers in the last two games alone. With that in mind, job number one for BYU's struggling offense will be to take care of the football. The Cougars have gotten away from their running game more than they'd like but that's had everything to do with game script as they've dropped their last three contests. I do think we see them go back to the run from the outset in this one in an effort to effectively shorten this game against a dangerous Pirates offense. Last time out against Liberty, BYU scored a pair of first quarter touchdowns but then didn't score again the rest of the way. After that embarrassing defensive performance (the Cougars allowed six Liberty scoring drives over a 34-minute stretch from the second to fourth quarter) I expect that unit to respond favorably here. This Cougars defense is too talented to struggle as badly as it has. Of course, facing Arkansas and Liberty in consecutive games is a tall task for even the best of defenses. Note that East Carolina has actually only played one true road game this season and it scored just nine points in that 15-point loss at Tulane. I mentioned this is a critical game for both teams in regard to Bowl game prospects. ECU does have what figures to be a layup in the final week of the season against Temple (it only needs one more win for Bowl eligibility) but you can be sure it would like to take care of business well before that. For BYU, things are a little tougher as they enter with just four wins and have only three games left on the schedule, including this one (it will face Boise State and Stanford - both on the road - to close out the regular season). I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair and I think that lends itself to a game of the lower-scoring variety in this case. Take the under (10*). |
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10-23-22 | Steelers v. Dolphins OVER 44.5 | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 8 m | Show |
SNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Miami at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. There's a lot to like about how this game sets up as a potential shootout, although perhaps not at first glance. We've only seen Steelers QB Kenny Pickett for one full game as he suffered a concussion in last week's stunning victory over the Buccaneers. In that contest he completed 34-of-52 passes for 327 yards against a pretty good Bills defense, on the road no less. While that performance was somewhat aided by game script as the Steelers trailed (by a wide margin) most of the way, there's no guarantee that won't be the case again as a touchdown underdog here. Miami is dealing with a cluster of injuries in its secondary and one of the only healthy bodies isn't even all that healthy as CB Xavien Howard has dealt with groin injuries all season long. The Dolphins defense as a whole has been unimposing for opposing quarterbacks, who have carved them up for 10 touchdown passes and only one interception. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are expected to have QB Tua Tagovailoa back from his scary concussion suffered 3+ weeks ago. He returns with a full compliment of weapons (Tyreek Hill was dropped from the injury report this week) and faces an injury-depleted Steelers defense that held up well at home against the Buccaneers last week but isn't likely to turn the trick for a second straight Sunday. Only one team has allowed more yardage to opposing wide receivers and no team has given up more touchdowns to that position this season. The Dolphins previous three home games were all played in the sweltering afternoon heat whereas this game will be played under the lights. I believe that lends itself to a higher-scoring affair than we've been accustomed to seeing here in Miami this season. Take the over (10*). |
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10-23-22 | Falcons v. Bengals OVER 47 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 51 h 4 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. This play sets up beautifully after so many bettors were left hanging with the 'over' in the Falcons 28-14 win over the 49ers last week. I can understand why those same bettors might be a little gun shy when it comes to playing the 'over' again here. Note that the 'under' has actually cashed in each of Atlanta's last three contests. With that being said, the Falcons led most of the way in two of those games while a very limited Buccaneers offense took its foot off the gas after jumping ahead 21-0 in the other. I mention that the Falcons led most of the way in two of those games as they were able to take their preferred course of action, taking the air out of the football and effectively shortening those contests. Here, I'm confident we'll see a much different game script as Atlanta projects to trail as a near-touchdown underdog against an improving Bengals offense. Let's get it straight, the Falcons defense isn't particularly good. Opponents have been bombing away on them with opposing quarterbacks facing little to no pressure in the pocket. Atlanta has yet to limit a single opponent to fewer than 226 passing yards this season. The Bengals are certainly comfortable following a similar gameplan, noting that they've attempted 32+ passes in all six games to date. We've also seen Cincinnati put up 27+ points in three of its last four games with the lone exception coming in a primetime division game in Baltimore two weeks ago. The Falcons offense doesn't get better after losing CB Casey Hayward to a shoulder injury. The good news for the Falcons is, the potential is there for them to stay competitive in this game due to a number of key injuries on the Bengals defense. DT D.J. Reader - one of Cincinnati's best run stoppers - remains sidelined. His backup Josh Tupuo is now out as well. Note that the Bengals have been torched for 155 and 228 rush yards over their last two games, which certainly plays into the hands of the run-happy Falcons here. Perhaps most importantly, LB Logan Wilson is nursing a shoulder injury. Should he miss that would really open things up for Atlanta TE Kyle Pitts, who has been a disappointment to this point, but draws a very favorable matchup against a Cincinnati defense that hasn't been able to contain opposing tight ends all season. Take the over (10*). |
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10-23-22 | Browns v. Ravens OVER 45.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 55 m | Show |
AFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. We got the injury news we wanted on Friday as tight end Mark Andrews returned to practice for the Ravens while cornerback Denzel Ward was ruled out for the Browns. Of course, Cleveland's defense has been a disaster this season, in the conversation as one of the worst defensive units in the entire league. Myles Garrett did return against the Patriots last week and contributed three tackles and two sacks but he re-aggravated his shoulder injury badly enough that he needed an MRI earlier this week. It sounds like he'll be on the field for the Browns on Sunday but whether he's 100% healthy is certainly up for debate. The Ravens are a team built for shootouts with a quick-strike offense but a defense that has plenty of holes. With that being said, they're coming off three consecutive 'under' results. That's had a lot to do with QB Lamar Jackson's inability to connect on his deep throws over the last few games. I think we do see him clean that up this week, noting that the Ravens could have field-stretcher Rashod Bateman back from injury. Regardless whether Bateman plays or not, the Ravens receivers, and Andrews, can win matchups all over the field. On the flip side, the Browns running game should feast on a Ravens defense that has been fairly soft against opposing ground attacks, yielding 4.5 yards per rush. While Cleveland QB Jacoby Brissett has been a 'game manager' throughout his career, he's at least been consistent this season, completing 21 or 22 passes in five straight games. The Ravens haven't given up a lot through the air over their last couple of games but that's only because the opposition has elected to gash them on the ground, as Cleveland is likely to do here. Take the over (10*). |
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10-22-22 | UCLA v. Oregon OVER 69.5 | Top | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 95 h 28 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and Oregon at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair between the Bruins and Ducks on Saturday afternoon. This is about as close to the high-flying Oregon teams of the past that we've seen in recent years. The Ducks are scoring at will. They most recently had one stretch where they scored three touchdowns in 14 minutes and then another where they hung four touchdowns on the board in 11 minutes - in the same game - against Arizona. The week previous they scored three touchdowns in the final four-and-a-half minutes of the first half against Stanford. While UCLA is certainly a better defensive team than both of those opponents, it's not as if the Bruins are the '85 Bears. The last time we saw UCLA it prevailed in a wild 42-32 game against Utah. That was a day where the Utes clearly weren't at the top of their game offensively, yet they still managed to eclipse 30 points. There was probably some reason for concern with this Bruins defense earlier in the season when we saw it allow South Alabama to put together four scoring drives in an 18-minute stretch in the first half of a 32-31 UCLA victory. The good news for the Bruins is that they have an explosive offense of their own. QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson is one of the more underrated players in college football in my opinion, as is RB Zach Charbonnet, who has seemingly been getting stronger with each passing game. Noting that the 'over' is now 10-1 in UCLA's last 11 games after committing one or fewer turnovers in its previous game and a perfect 6-0 in Oregon's last six home games following a win, I'll call for nothing short of a shootout on Saturday. Take the over (10*). |
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10-20-22 | Saints v. Cardinals UNDER 44 | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Arizona at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We've seen plenty of stinkers in primetime action this season and it's hard to envision anything other than another relatively uneventful affair between the Saints and Cardinals on Thursday. It sounds like the Saints will give the keys to QB Andy Dalton for at least one more game, although there is an outside chance that Jameis Winston returns for this game. I'm not sure it really matters right now. While the Saints have seen each of their last three games go 'over' the total since Dalton took over for an injured Winston, it's had little to do with the 'Red Rocket' as they've actually seen their passing yardage regress over those three contests (19-of-36 passing for 171 yards last week). New Orleans' offensive line is banged-up and outside of standout rookie WR Chris Olave, there are few dynamic options in the receiving corps. QB Alvin Kamara remains the focal point of the offense and while he's played well, he's not the gamebreaker he once was and his ceiling is somewhat limited by the presence of Dalton, not to mention the Saints poor run and pass blocking. The Cardinals have quietly snuffed out opposing passing games this season, not allowing any opponent to throw for more than 244 yards since Week 1 against the Chiefs. Arizona will get WR DeAndre Hopkins back from suspension on Thursday and while he could make an immediate impact, he lands in a struggling Cardinals offense. Arizona's offensive line is dealing with injuries, leading to QB Kyler Murray running for his life a lot of the time. I'm confident in the Saints ability to contain Murray here. New Orleans QB Marshon Lattimore remains sidelined although his backup, Bradley Roby has held up alright, allowing 16 catches on 35 targets this season. The Cards have yet to throw for 300 yards this season and that's despite one game where they completed 37-of-58 passes against the Rams (they scored only 12 points in that contest). This has all the makings of another primetime game played close to the vest with both sides looking to run the football and effectively shorten proceedings. Note that the 'under' is a staggering 14-3 in the Saints last 17 Thursday games and 22-9 in the Cardinals last 31 contests at home following a double-digit loss against a division opponent. Take the under (10*). |
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10-20-22 | Virginia v. Georgia Tech UNDER 47.5 | Top | 16-9 | Win | 100 | 56 h 29 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia and Georgia Tech at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Last year, these two teams were involved in a wild shootout that went Virginia's way by a 48-40 score. That game saw a closing total of 65.5 points so a high-scoring affair was to be expected. How things have changed for both teams. Virginia was involved in plenty of shootouts last year with an electric offense and a defense that couldn't get many stops at all. The script has flipped this year. The Cavaliers offense continues to struggle in pass and run blocking, and generally appears broken. They've topped out at 34 points and that performance came way back in Week 1 against an FCS opponent in Richmond. In fact, that's the last time the Cavaliers eclipsed the 20-point mark. Teams have been able to run on Georgia Tech but Virginia doesn't seem to have anyone capable of taking the lead out of the backfield, and as I mentioned its offensive line hasn't helped matters, struggling mightily in run-blocking. Georgia Tech has turned things around following a 1-3 start, posting back-to-back conference wins over Pittsburgh and Duke. While QB Jeff Sims might be the Yellow Jackets best offensive player, he's really their only true threat. WR Malachi Carter has dealt with an injury and when he has played, hasn't looked quite right. One thing we know is that the Yellow Jackets want to run the football, racking up 30+ rush attempts in all six games so far this season. The gameplan has been to keep drives (and the clock) moving, effectively shortening the game and leaving the heavy lifting to the defense. That defense has certainly had a 'bend but don't break' type of philosophy, giving up yardage on the ground but doing a nice job of snuffing out opposing aerial attacks. Only one opponent has thrown for 300+ yards on them and that was Pitt (it needed 45 pass attempts to get to 305 yards and scored 'only' 21 points in the game). Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 19-4 the last 23 times Virginia has come off a game in which it ran for 40 or fewer yards, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 40.8 points in that spot. The idea is that the Cavaliers generally look to run the football after games where they're unable to do so. Note also that the 'under' is a long-term 53-29 with Georgia Tech coming off consecutive victories, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles UNDER 42.5 | Top | 17-26 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 19 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Philadelphia at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. Last season's two meetings between these NFC East rivals were wild, high-scoring affairs in favor of the Cowboys but I look for a much different story to unfold on Sunday night in Philadelphia. With QB Cooper Rush in line to start for at least one more game, we know what we're going to get from the Cowboys at this point. They'll keep Rush in a 'game-managing' role as they look to leave proceedings in the hands of their very capable defense. On the flip side, Philadelphia has been somewhat 'feast-or-famine' on offense, scoring points in bunches but also going extended stretches without hitting paydirt. The Eagles are expected to be back at full strength on their offensive line and that should equate to plenty of long, clock-churning drives against a Cowboys defense that will look to 'bend but not break', keeping everything - and most importantly dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts - in front of them on Sunday night. Note that the 'under' is 28-14 the last 42 times the Cowboys have played on the road following three consecutive victories, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 40.8 points. The Eagles have seen the 'under' go 17-12 in their last 29 games against NFC opponents. Take the under (10*). |
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10-15-22 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky UNDER 49 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 33 h 50 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Mississippi State and Kentucky at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. Mississippi State has seen three straight games go 'over' the total (based on closing numbers - we played the 'under' early in the week prior to its game against Arkansas last week before the total moved seven points) but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday in Lexington. Note that the Bulldogs have forced seven turnovers while turning the football over just once themselves over the last three games - a big reason they racked up 45, 42 and 40 points over those three contests, all victories, also notably all at home. In two previous road games this season we've seen Mississippi State hang 40+ points on a bad Arizona defense and score just 16 points the next week at LSU. Here, the Bulldogs will face a tough challenge against a Kentucky squad that has held all six opponents to 24 points or less this season. The Wildcats are expected to have QB Will Levis back for Saturday's game and most expect the offense to immediately take off after scoring just 14 points in a disappointing home loss against South Carolina last week. I'm not so easily convinced. Remember, just two games back, with Levis on the field, Kentucky scored just 19 points in a loss to Ole Miss. While Mississippi State is known for its high-powered offense, its defense has been outstanding as well. Case in point, last week it didn't allow a touchdown against Arkansas until it was already ahead 21-3 with less than two minutes remaining in the first half. It has topped out at 276 passing yards allowed this season and that came in a game where Arizona attempted 54 passes and scored just 17 points. While last year's matchup between these two teams did go 'over' the total, it also featured a lower total than we're working with here. You would have to go back five meetings in the series to find the last time the two teams combined to score more than 48 points. Take the under (10*). |
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10-15-22 | Oklahoma State v. TCU UNDER 69.5 | Top | 40-43 | Loss | -115 | 97 h 1 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma State and TCU at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting on Saturday afternoon in Fort Worth. This is obviously a massive Big 12 showdown as both teams enter sporting perfect 5-0 records. Oklahoma State is coming off consecutive wild, high-scoring wins over Baylor and Texas Tech to open its Big 12 schedule. Meanwhile, TCU won (and covered) in thrilling fashion on the road against previously undefeated Kansas last Saturday, scoring at least 38 points for the fifth straight time to open the campaign. I believe both teams will be facing their toughest defensive test of the season on Saturday. Note that game script has been a big factor in the Cowboys last two high-scoring results. Last week against Texas Tech, two early touchdown scores (one by each team) in the game's first four minutes ultimately led to a back-and-forth shootout. Keep in mind, after giving up a Texas Tech touchdown just under three minutes into the second quarter, the Cowboys held the Red Raiders out of the end zone with the exception of one score around midway through the third quarter. Two weeks ago against Baylor, Oklahoma State jumped ahead 23-3 and didn't yield a Bears touchdown until nearly three minutes into the second half. Meanwhile, TCU gave up two touchdowns in the first 17 minutes against Oklahoma two weeks ago but then didn't allow another touchdown score until the outcome had long been decided, up 55-17 just shy of four minutes into the fourth quarter. Last week, the Horned Frogs didn't allow a Kansas touchdown until just over two minutes into the second half. Things went a bit sideways from there as TCU was geared toward facing dual-threat QB Jaylon Daniels but after he suffered an injury, Jake Bean took over the Jayhawks offense and bombed away. After Oklahoma State won last year's matchup between these two teams by a 63-17 score, you can be sure that TCU has little interest in getting involved in a shootout here, regardless how much confidence it has in QB Max Duggan. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-1 in the Cowboys last 10 games when playing on the road off a home win but non-cover as a favorite, resulting in an average total of just 46.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs have seen the 'under' cash in four of their last five games following consecutive contests in which 60+ points were scored, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-14-22 | Navy v. SMU UNDER 57.5 | Top | 34-40 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Navy and Houston at 7:30 pm et on Friday. While five of the last seven meetings in this series have gone 'over' the total, two of the last three matchups have stayed 'under' including last year's 31-24 SMU victory. Navy exploded for 53 points in last week's blowout win over Tulsa but there's little chance we see it repeat that performance here. The Midshipmen benefited from four Golden Hurricane turnovers in that contest. It's worth noting that prior to that game, Navy had been held to 23 points or less in each of its first four contests this season, including 13 or less in three of those games. If the Midshipmen are going to keep this one competitive on Friday, they're going to need to come up with another strong defensive performance. Note that they've actually held up well on that side of the football this season and particularly of late. Navy enters this contest having yielded just six offensive touchdowns over their last 12 quarters of action. SMU isn't one-dimensional on offense by any means, but it hasn't exactly been setting the world on fire with its ground attack. The Mustangs have attempted 49+ passes in three straight games but that's had more to do with game script than anything else as they've either been trailing or involved in tightly-contested affairs. As a double-digit favorite here, the potential is there for them to lean a little more heavily on their running game to take some of the load off of QB Tanner Mordecai, who has thrown just five touchdowns to go along with five interceptions over the last three games. Navy's gameplan will obviously involve effectively shortening this game but churning out long, time-consuming drives with its triple-option offense. Despite gaining just 177 rushing yards on 53 attempts in last year's meeting, the Midshipmen still won the time of possession battle, holding onto the football for 32+ minutes. It's also worth noting that they 'only' allowed 31 points despite SMU completing 30-of-40 passes for 324 yards. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 4-1 in Navy's last five games following an outright underdog victory, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' has cashed four of the last six times SMU has come off consecutive games totalling 60+ points, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-12-22 | UL-Lafayette v. Marshall UNDER 47.5 | Top | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 31 h 10 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Louisiana and Marshall at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. You've heard the saying that when a coach says he has two capable quarterbacks that really means he has no capable quarterbacks. That might be a bit harsh but I think it rings true with the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns this season. Ben Wooldridge and Chandler Fields have split time under center with neither showing the ability to take over the reins entirely. I do think the Ragin' Cajuns have a capable enough offense led by RB Chris Smith to at least move the chains with some consistency and churn out some long drives in this midweek affair. I'm just not convinced they can finish a lot of drives with seven's on the board. In fact, Louisiana has scored just one offensive touchdown over its last seven quarters of football and that's despite its last two contests coming against anything but defensive powerhouses in South Alabama and Louisiana-Monroe. Marshall's biggest issue a year ago and ultimately the biggest reason it dropped a 36-21 decision in its matchup against Louisiana was its lack of run defense. It has shown improvement in that regard, however, this season. Only one opponent has gained more than 100 yards on the ground against the Thundering Herd this season and that was Notre Dame, picking up 130 rushing yards but needing 37 attempts to get there. Offensively, Marshall has topped out at 28 points in regulation time in four games (it reached that number twice) since opening the campaign with a 55-3 rout of FCS squad Norfolk State. RB Khalal Laborn has proven to be a big get for the Herd, running for 100+ yards in all five games this season. I do think Marshall will look to manage his workload a little bit moving forward though, noting that he's racked up 30+ carries in two straight and three of his last four games. Louisiana has held opponents to just 3.8 yards per rush this season but did turn in one bad game against the run, that coming against Louisiana-Monroe two contests back. The Warhawks rushing numbers were boosted by one 75-yard run - outside of that they actually gained just 152 yards on their other 38 attempts. Take the under (10*). |
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10-09-22 | Seahawks v. Saints UNDER 46 | Top | 32-39 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 36 m | Show |
NFC Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Seahawks enter this game off consecutive 'over' results, including last week's 93-point shootout in Detroit. I expect a much different story to unfold on Sunday as they stay on the road to face the Saints at the Superdome in New Orleans. I think both teams have an interest in effectively shortening this game as their best chance at coming away victorious. For the Seahawks, they're essentially playing with 'house money' off to a surprising 2-2 start and having already won the front-half of this two-game road set. They've been throwing the football far more than most expected given head coach Pete Carroll's penchant for 'establishing the run' at all costs. Here, I think we'll see Seattle get back to that run-first gameplan with RB Rashaad Penny performing exceptionally well. The problem here is that the Saints defense is capable of smothering opposing ground attacks and I'm not convinced the Seahawks passing game can do enough to keep them honest here. Note that only four other pass defenses have held opposing quarterbacks to a lower completion percentage than the Saints this season. Offensively, New Orleans is limited, due in large part to a number of key injuries. QB Jameis Winston isn't expected to play meaning the offense will once again be left in the hands of veteran Andy Dalton. Returning from London, I don't believe the Saints have any interest in getting involved in an exhausting shootout here. Look for them to focus on churning out long, clock-eating drives with a focus on running the football with Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. The Seahawks have been helpless against the run this season, yielding well north of 5.0 yards per rush but the Saints ground attack has appeared anything but explosive so we could see a bit of a stagnant battle here. Note that last year's meeting between these two teams totalled just 23 points, easily staying 'under' the closing total of 41.5. We're working with a considerably higher total here and I don't believe it's warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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10-09-22 | Bears v. Vikings OVER 44 | Top | 22-29 | Win | 100 | 47 h 56 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Minnesota at 1 pm et on Sunday. I expected the Vikings to be a strong 'over' play with Kevin O'Connell taking over head coaching duties from Mike Zimmer this season, not to mention Minnesota's leaky defense. It took a few weeks but now we've seen the Vikings get involved in consecutive shootouts, loosely-speaking, resulting in back-to-back 'overs' against Detroit and New Orleans (in London). Here, I expect another higher-scoring than expected matchup against the Bears in friendly offensive conditions indoors in Minnesota. The Bears offense has been putrid so far this season but it has also faced some tough defensive opponents, in difficult settings, with the exception of a game against Houston in which it scored a season-high 23 points. Here, there's reason for optimism as the Bears running game should feast on a Vikings run defense that has been virtually non-existent this season. QB Justin Fields continues to be under constant duress but there will be plays to be made against a below-average Vikings secondary in this game, especially as game-script will likely favor the Bears going a little more aggressive playing from behind. It should be all systems go for the Vikings offense as they look to tee off on a Bears defense that has done little to slow opposing running or passing games this season. Chicago checks in allowing 4.8 yards per rush, setting this up as a blow-up spot for Vikes RB Dalvin Cook. The Bears could be in dire straits trying to defend Vikings WR Justin Jefferson, who checks in off a dominant performance in London, noting that CB Jaylon Johnson is questionable to play again this week as he recovers from a quad injury that has kept him out of the last two games. Note that last year's matchup between these two teams in Minnesota totalled 48 points. The 'over' is 9-1 the last 10 times Minnesota has come off an ATS loss, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 55.0 points. Take the over (10*). |
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10-08-22 | Utah v. UCLA UNDER 64.5 | Top | 32-42 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 33 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and UCLA at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with UCLA against Washington last week as that matchup set up well for the Bruins to stay undefeated while also ending the Huskies perfect run in what turned out to be a wild, high-scoring game. It's a much different story this week as I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair as the visiting Utes aim to deliver their fifth straight victory since dropping their opener at Florida. That trip to The Swamp to face the Gators in Week 1 was a tough one to be sure. Often teams just aren't ready to get punched in the mouth right out of the gate and I think that was the case with Utah - even though that result against Florida certainly could have gone either way. Since then, the Utes have been nothing short of dominant. Over their last four games they've allowed a grand total of four touchdowns. The only touchdown scores they allowed against San Diego State and Arizona State came when those games were already long decided, up 35-0 in the closing minutes of the fourth quarter against the Aztecs and 34-6 as the clock wound down against the Sun Devils. Last week, Utah gave up a touchdown in the first six minutes of the game against Oregon State but that was it as far as touchdowns go the rest of the way as the Utes cruised to a 42-16 victory. I am somewhat concerned about the season-ending injury to Utah TE Brant Kuithe. He was a big part of what the Utes do on offense and certainly added to the comfort level of QB Cam Rising. Kuithe led the Utes in receiving in last year's meeting with UCLA. That's not to say Utah can't be explosive without him - we still saw it put up 40+ points in last week's win over Oregon State, but his absence is notable to be sure. While UCLA doesn't shy away from shootouts often, I think it might be well-served to employ more of a clock-control offensive gameplan here, knowing its own defensive deficiencies. Keep in mind, this matchup went Utah's way by a 44-24 score last year. Forcing nine turnovers over its last four games, UCLA has been gaining plenty of extra offensive possessions but Utah isn't likely to be as generous, noting that it has turned the football over just four times in five games this season. I expect to see both teams churn out some long, clock-eating drives over the course of this game. While the Bruins defense has struggled for extended stretches, we also have to give it credit for last week's win over Washington as it gave up a touchdown in the game's first five minutes but then held the Huskies out of the end zone until there were just over five minutes remaining in the third quarter. The Bruins did give up two more touchdowns in the fourth quarter but that was when the outcome was all but decided, up 40-16 (Washington tacked on a pair of two-point conversions to make the final score a little more flattering). Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 30-14 the last 44 times Utah has played on the road following a home win by 17+ points with that spot producing an average total of just 48.1 points. The 'under' is also 87-60 in the Bruins last 147 games following an 'over' result, resulting in an average total of 54.6 points in that spot. I mentioned last year's matchup between these two teams totalled 68 points, sailing 'over' the closing total of 60.5. We're dealing with a higher number this time around and I'll point out the last time these teams met on this field we saw just 51 total points in 2018. Take the under (10*). |
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10-08-22 | Tennessee v. LSU OVER 61.5 | Top | 40-13 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 11 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and LSU at 12 noon et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up in early action on Saturday. Tennessee is coming off a wild 38-33 win over rival Florida two weeks ago, elevating it into the nation's Top-10. That game really told us all we need to know about the Volunteers. While they can score at will, they'll also give up their share of points. After a first quarter that saw just a single Tennessee field goal in terms of scoring, the rest of the contest was a wild ride. The second quarter saw four touchdowns over a 13-minute stretch. Three touchdowns were scored over an eight-minute stretch in the third quarter and three more touchdowns were tacked on in another eight-minute period in the fourth quarter. Keep in mind, outside of a road date with Pitt earlier in the season, the Vols hadn't really faced an opponent that could provide much heartburn offensively. The Tennessee offense has been outstanding through four games. What I really like about this offense is the way it pours it on even after games are long decided. Note that two games back against Akron, the Vols entered the fourth quarter with a 49-3 lead and proceeded to tack on two more touchdowns. In its season-opener, Tennessee added a fourth quarter touchdown to finish with 59 points in a rout of Ball State. The Vols will likely need all the points they can get on the road against a surging LSU squad here. The Tigers haven't been all that impressive offensively but I do believe a breakout is coming. We saw an expected defensive slugfest on the road against Auburn last Saturday but earlier in the season we saw a glimpse of what might be in store for this offense in a 31-16 win over Mississippi State. After getting off to a slow start, we saw LSU score three touchdowns in just over a nine-minute stretch in the fourth quarter. Dual-threat QB Jayden Daniels threw for more than 200 yards while running for just shy of 100 against a pretty good Bulldogs defense on that night. In a game where the Tigers could have easily taken it easy and cruised to a comfortable win, they scored five offensive touchdowns over a 15-minute stretch in the first half against FCS squad Southern University back in Week 2. The explosiveness is there and I think we'll see it in a shootout against the Vols here. Take the over (10*). |
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10-07-22 | UNLV v. San Jose State UNDER 50.5 | Top | 7-40 | Win | 100 | 108 h 25 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between UNLV and San Jose State at 10:30 pm et on Friday. We won with San Jose State in its rout of Wyoming last Saturday but I'll go a different route and back the 'under' as the Spartans return home to host UNLV on Friday. The Runnin' Rebels are coming off a tougher-than-expected 31-20 win over New Mexico last week. UNLV gave up two first quarter touchdowns in that contest but didn't allow another touchdown the rest of the way in that come-from-behind victory. Concerning was the fact that it took the Rebels until over midway through the third quarter to reach the end zone. It's been a case of feast-or-famine for the UNLV offense this season. Two games back against a weak Utah State squad, the Rebels scored three touchdowns in a seven-minute stretch early in the first half but then managed just one more touchdown the rest of the way. Here, UNLV will face a tough San Jose State defense that has given up just two touchdowns over its last six quarters of football. This will undoubtedly be UNLV's toughest defensive test since being held to just 14 points in a six-point loss on the road against California back on September 10th. Last Saturday, the Spartans put up 33 points in the win over Wyoming but that was largely a result of the Cowboys offense not being able to stay on the field, effectively leaving their defense out to dry. San Jose State controlled the football for more than 36 minutes in that contest. It is worth noting that it wasn't until more than eight minutes into the second quarter that the Spartans managed to reach the end zone in that game. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 the last seven times San Jose State has come off consecutive wins, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-03-22 | Rams v. 49ers UNDER 42.5 | Top | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
NFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and San Francisco at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The 49ers have seen all three of their games stay 'under' the total this season and I expect more of the same on Monday night. A lot of what San Francisco wanted to do offensively went out the window when QB Trey Lance went down to a season-ending injury in Week 2 against Seattle (we won with the Niners in that game). Jimmy Garoppolo is more than capable of running an NFL offense - and the Niners offense in particular - but I don't think we're going to see many blowup spots from this unit. This is obviously a difficult matchup against a Rams defense that knows Garoppolo's tendencies and gives up little against the run. Compounding matters for San Francisco is the absence of all-world tackle Trent Williams after he suffered an ankle injury last Sunday night. I'm higher on his backup, Colton McKivitz, than most but the absence of Williams is only part of the problem as the San Francisco o-line continues to deal with issues on the interior, issues that the Rams standout defensive line can exploit. TE George Kittle has been a virtual non-factor this season and that's unlikely to change as he's needed in pass protection far too often. On the flip side, the Rams offense looks broken. Yes, there was a strong first half against the Falcons two weeks ago but outside of that this unit has had a miserable time coming up with big plays, whether on the ground or through the air. Here, L.A. will likely be banging its head against the wall trying to run on a Niners defense that yields just 2.9 yards per rush this season. Last week against a bad Arizona defense, the Rams were gifted excellent starting position (on the Cardinals 35-yard line) on their first drive but needed nine plays to eventually settle for a field goal. They were again handed excellent field position on their next drive and did convert a Cooper Kupp touchdown but from there it was three-and-out, field goal, three-and-out and three-and-out on their next four drives. Speaking of Kupp, he has owned the Niners recently, however it's worth noting that even in a game where he racked up 140+ receiving yards and two touchdowns in last January's NFC Championship, the Rams still only managed to score 20 points. While I do expect both offenses to move up and down the field in this one, I question how many drives they'll end with 7's rather than 3's. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 5-2 in the 49ers last seven games off a road loss and better still, the 'under' is a perfect 4-0 the last four times they've come off an outright loss as a road favorite, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-02-22 | Titans v. Colts OVER 43 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 36 m | Show |
AFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'over' in the Colts upset win over the Chiefs last Sunday but did win with Indy plus the points. Here, I'm willing to go back to the well with the same play as Indy stays at home to host the division-rival Titans, who check in off their first win of the season. This is a blow-up spot for Colts RB Jonathan Taylor against a Titans defense that gives up a whopping 6.1 yards per rush this season. Everyone is down on Colts QB Matt Ryan, who I'll admit looks a little washed at this point of his career. With that being said, Michael Pittman Jr. is back healthy and Ryan does have a 300+ yard passing game under his best this season (back in Week 1 against Houston). I'm willing to bet against the Titans defense here. On the flip side, the Titans offense couldn't have looked any worse against Buffalo two weeks ago. That was very much game script related, however, as they dug a massive hole and had to throw their gameplan out the window. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Titans use RB Derrick Henry effectively against a Colts defense that will once again be without LB Shaquille Leonard. Credit the Colts defense for stepping up against the Chiefs last week but the Titans can score on this unit, as we saw in last year's wild 34-31 victory on this field. Take the over (10*). |
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09-30-22 | Tulane v. Houston UNDER 55.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 105 h 4 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Tulane and Houston at 7 pm et on Friday. The lookahead total for this game was much higher than the number we're currently dealing with and rightfully so. I still feel there's considerable value backing the 'under' on Friday night in Houston. Tulane is off to an impressive 3-1 start but it will be in a foul mood after suffering a 27-24 defeat at home against Southern Miss last Saturday. The Green Wave offense got off to a predictably hot start thanks to a schedule that saw it open against UMass and FCS squad Alcorn State. Tulane impressed in a 17-10 road win against Kansas State but that upset victory was obviously fuelled by its defense as it held the Wildcats out of the end zone until the final three minutes of the first half and then didn't give up another touchdown the rest of the way. Even in the losing effort against Southern Miss last Saturday, the Green Wave allowed only two offensive touchdowns (the Eagles also returned an interception for a touchdown). While Houston has been involved in some high-scoring games, its offense hasn't been the juggernaut that most were expecting. The Cougars barely eked out a 34-27 win over Rice last Saturday. In that contest they scored a touchdown in the final seconds of the first quarter but then didn't reach the end zone again until early in the third quarter. They only prevailed thanks to a fumble return for a touchdown in the final four minutes of the fourth quarter. Save for a 38-30 loss against Kansas, the Houston defense has played well. It's worth noting that the Cougars jumped ahead 14-0 early in that game against the Jayhawks and probably figured they would cruise the rest of the way. In a road date against Texas Tech in Week 2, Houston allowed a pair of second quarter touchdowns but that was it until overtime (that game totalled 63 points but included 23 points in two overtime sessions). The Cougars season-opener against UTSA needed three overtimes to decide. That game didn't feature any scoring until the second quarter and totalled only 48 points in regulation time. Take the under (10*). |
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09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals OVER 47.5 | Top | 15-27 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 16 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Cincinnati at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We missed with the 'over' in the Dolphins 21-19 upset win over the Bills on Sunday after cashing with the same play in their thrilling come-from-behind shootout win over the Ravens the week previous. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play for a third consecutive week. Buffalo not-so-mysteriously employed a 'keep-away' strategy against the Dolphins on Sunday, clearly doing so in an effort to protect their severely undermanned defense, particularly in the secondary. The Bills effectively shortened the game, churning out long drives and eating plenty of clock but it ultimately worked to their detriment as they couldn't finish drives with touchdowns, not often enough at least. Here, I expect the Bengals to go on the attack early and often on offense, noting that they've already attempted 53, 36 and 36 passes in their first three games, with the latter tally coming in Sunday's lopsided win over the Jets - a game where you would have assumed game script would have led to the opposite gameplan. With Joe Mixon banged-up, I'm not convinced we'll see the Bengals go run-heavy here. We finally saw their much-maligned offensive line start to come together in Sunday's win and I'm confident we'll see further progression here. The Dolphins secondary is ripe for the picking in my opinion, especially with CB Xavien Howard still nursing a groin injury and playing on a short week after getting a heavy dose of Bills WR Stefon Diggs on Sunday. As for the Miami offense, whether Tua Tagovailoa can go or not (he's dealing with head/back injuries - shrouded in a cloud of mystery as of Monday), I'm confident we'll see Mike McDaniel employ an aggressive gameplan, knowing his team will likely need to score more than the 21 points it put up on Sunday in order to stay undefeated for another week. The Bengals couldn't have faced a weaker slate of opposing quarterbacks through three weeks, going up against Mitchell Trubisky, Cooper Rush and Joe Flacco. Still, they allowed 674 passing yards on just 68 completions. We already know the Dolphins can play fast and put up points playing from behind after their massive Week 2 comeback against the Ravens. That's the projected game script here as well as they check in as a road underdog against the Bengals. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 7-1 in the Bengals last eight games when coming off a double-digit victory and a modest 11-9 in the Dolphins last 20 games following an 'under' result. Take the over (10*). |
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09-25-22 | Bills v. Dolphins OVER 52.5 | Top | 19-21 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 43 m | Show |
Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. Last year's two meetings between these teams were relatively low-scoring, lopsided affairs in favor of the Bills. While Buffalo has looked incredible through the first two weeks of the season, I do expect it to get its first test here with Miami coming in brimming with confidence following last week's come-from-behind victory in Baltimore. We won with the 'over' in both of these teams' games last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well here. Buffalo knows how to play only one way on offense and that's fast. The Bills are well-positioned to pace this affair as well with WR Gabriel Davis likely to return and Stefon Diggs coming off an explosive performance against the Titans and likely to eat against Dolphins top corner Xavien Howard, who is nursing a groin injury. The Bills have injury concerns of their own on defense. Already down Tre'Davious White, they've got several key cogs banged-up and questionable to play this Sunday (although I do expect all of them to suit up, they won't be 100% healthy) in Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer and Jordan Phillips. Last week we saw Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel scheme up another masterful offensive gameplan to exploit the Ravens defensive weaknesses at the back-end (due to injury as well). He should be comfortable teeing up Tua Tagovailoa and the dynamic WR duo of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill again in this one given the state of the Bills defense playing on a short week. Miami's ground game has been an afterthought through two weeks and it should remain that way here given the Bills stout nature defending the run (although the possible absence of Phillips would downgrade that run defense). I'll resist the temptation to go the contrarian route and stick with the 'over' with these two teams for one more week. Take the over (10*). |
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09-24-22 | Maryland v. Michigan UNDER 63 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 99 h 56 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Maryland and Michigan at 12 noon et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in Michigan's 59-0 rout of an overmatched Connecticut squad last Saturday. Of course, we needed all 59 points from the Wolverines to get there. I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as Michigan gets its first true test of the season against Maryland on Saturday at the Big House. Maryland is off to a 3-0 start following last week's fourth quarter rally against a quality SMU squad. The Terps offense has been humming along, scoring 31, 56 and 34 points through its first three games. We saw a similar story unfold last year with Maryland running up the score against the opponents it should but struggling when the competition stiffened up. Michigan may not have the flashy defense of 2021 with Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo having moved on to the NFL, but there's a chance this Wolverines 'D' could be even better. While they've yet to face a true test, I've come away impressed by the way they've completely stifled their first three opponents. In fact they've yet to allow a single first half point with the only two opponents that managed to score on them doing so long after the outcome was already decided. Offensively, the Wolverines, like the Terps, have benefited from facing three relatively weak defensive opponents. I can't help but feel that this Michigan offense, under the guidance of first-year starting QB J.J. McCarthy, is built to methodically drive down the field and wear down opposing defenses with a steady mix of run and pass rather than come up with a ton of splash plays. Note that the Terps didn't allow a touchdown until the first minute of the second quarter against a terrific SMU offense last week. After giving up a touchdown with less than seven minutes remaining in the third quarter, putting it behind 27-20, Maryland posted a shutout the rest of the way, scoring a pair of touchdowns of its own to secure the 34-27 victory over the Mustangs. Prior to that, the Terps had allowed four touchdowns through their first two games although you can take three of those with a grain of salt as they came in a 'defense-optional' rout of Charlotte, which plays as loose as any team in FBS. Michigan crushed Maryland by a 59-18 score in last year's matchup (note that game saw a closing total of 58 so we're dealing with a considerable adjustment here) so you can be sure the Terps gameplan here will involve possessing the football for extended stretches in an effort to effectively shorten the game and limit Michigan's opportunities on offense. On the flip side, I think we'll see Maryland play it fairly safe defensively, allowing Michigan to churn out long scoring drives that ultimately eat the clock and help our cause with the 'under'. Take the under (10*). |
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09-22-22 | Coastal Carolina v. Georgia State UNDER 64 | Top | 41-24 | Loss | -110 | 83 h 41 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Coastal Carolina and Georgia State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off wild games last Saturday with Coastal Carolina recording a 38-26 victory over Buffalo (we won with Buffalo plus the points) and Georgia State falling by a 42-41 score against Charlotte. Last year we saw a closing total of 53 points for this same matchup but the game ended up reaching a whopping 82 points in a Georgia State upset victory. So here we're dealing with a considerably higher total - I believe it will prove to be too high. I can't imagine either team is all that interested in getting involved in another track meet here, playing on a short week off such draining contests just five days previous. Note that while Coastal Carolina did allow 26 points against Buffalo, it actually held the Bulls out of the end zone until the final minute of the first half and didn't give up another touchdown until there were less than six minutes left in the fourth quarter. The final score in that contest was ultimately inflated by a Buffalo defensive breakdown with just over three minutes remaining as Coastal Carolina was just trying to get a couple of first downs and burn out the clock (the Chanticleers scored a 59-yard touchdown). Prior to that contest, Coastal Carolina held FCS squad Gardner-Webb out of the end zone for the first 27 minutes and in its season-opener limited a tough Army offense to 28 points in a game where a few defensive breakdowns (to be expected facing Army's triple-option in Week 1) led to three long touchdowns. The Chanticleers enter this game on a short week with a trio of running backs banged-up. To effectively shorten this game would certainly work in their favor knowing just how explosive the Georgia State offense can be. The Panthers are still winless through three games but they've been competitive in their last two contests against North Carolina and Charlotte. After jumping ahead early in last week's game against Charlotte, the Panthers had a fumble returned for a touchdown which really turned the tide in the game, which ultimately turned into a shootout (to be expected against the 49ers' explosive offense and sieve-like defense). Two games back, the Georgia State offense couldn't stay on the field in the first half, leaving the defense gassed against a high-octane North Carolina offense. The Panthers did go a 23-minute stretch without allowing a touchdown in that contest. In their season-opener, they limited South Carolina to only two offensive touchdowns in a game that was scoreless until the second minute of the second quarter. My point being, the Panthers defense is better than it has showed on the scoreboard through three games and will certainly be amped up to face former teammate, WR Sam Pinckney who transferred to Coastal Carolina after last season. Keep in mind, this is an experienced Panthers defense (with seven returning starters) that held six of eight Sun Belt Conference opponents to 21 points or less last season. Take the under (10*). |
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09-19-22 | Titans v. Bills OVER 47.5 | Top | 7-41 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
AFC Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Buffalo at 7:15 pm et on Monday. We missed with the 'over' in the Bills season-opening blowout win over the Rams in Week 1. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as we're dealing with a lower posted total, albeit against a weaker offensive opponent than they saw last week (the Titans can't perform much worse offensively than the Rams did in the opener). I can't help but feel that the Bills are bound to get involved in some shootouts until they get healthier on defense. Already without CB Tre'Davious White they'll be missing DT Ed Oliver and possibly DT Tim Settle as well on Monday with the latter two opening the door for a big game for Titans RB Derrick Henry. QB Ryan Tannehill may not appear to have many weapons at his disposal on paper but I liked what I saw from rookie WR Treylon Burks last week and guys like Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Robert Woods are capable wideouts as well. There's little I need to say that hasn't already been said about the Bills offense. They're one of the elite units in the league and will catch the Titans missing a couple of key cogs defensively with CB Kristian Fulton and DT Da'Shawn Hand forced to miss time. The Bills do have their own injury concern on offense with WR Gabriel Davis listed as questionable after suffering an ankle injury in practice. Even if he can't go, I still expect the Bills to go off against a very beatable Titans defense. Note that the 'over' is 18-7 with the Bills coming off a win over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 53.6 points in that situation. The 'over' has also cashed in nine of Buffalo's last 11 games after allowing 14 points or less in its previous contest. Take the over (10*). |
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09-17-22 | Mississippi State v. LSU OVER 53 | Top | 16-31 | Loss | -108 | 31 h 23 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Mississippi State and LSU at 6 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'over' in Mississippi State's rout of Arizona last Saturday. We probably deserved a better fate but the scoring fizzled after a 22-point first quarter and the game ultimately finished just a shade 'under' the total. I expect a different story to unfold here. The Bulldogs are off to a roaring start offensively and that's to be expected as they have all of the pieces in place and a head coach that knows how to get the most out of those pieces in Mike Leach. I like the way Mississippi State has continued to pour it on late in its first two games, even with the outcome already all but decided. The Bulldogs have scored four fourth quarter touchdowns. All most can think about when it comes to LSU is that disappointing season-opening 24-23 loss to Florida State. Few were paying atttention but the Tigers absolutely exploded offensively last week against FCS squad Southern, putting up 37 points before the game was even a quarter old. Incredibly, LSU has now scored a whopping 11 offensive touchdowns over essentially the last five quarters of football (the Tigers scored with eight seconds remaining in the third quarter of their season-opener against Florida State). Last week's matchup between these two teams totalled 53 points and that's where this total sits at the time of writing. I believe it will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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