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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-04-18 | Eagles v. Patriots OVER 48 | Top | 41-33 | Win | 100 | 231 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing the Over between the Eagles & Patriots in Super Bowl 52. Give the Eagles credit as players and coaches changed things up just a tad to account for Nick Foles slightly slower delivery than Carson Wentz has. The offense hasn't missed a beat and Foles is simply on fire, completing 49 of his last 63 passes. The Patriots have their defensive issues against both the pass and the run, ranked in the bottom-third in the NFL. They're all about out-scoring the opposition. That's what we expect to take place on the "indoor track" in Minneapolis. You don't stop the Patriot offense, they're relentless, even when they start slowly. And again, we expect Philly to do plenty of scoring themselves. A lot of offensive weaponry in this one, whether Rob Gronkowski plays or not. The Over has cashed in eight of New England's last 10 playoff games and in four of the last five head-to-head meetings. Eagles' games are 8-0 to the Over (55 ppg) the last three seasons when facing defenses that allow at least 5.65 yards per play. They're 14-4 to the Over away from home against teams with a completion rate of 61 percent or higher, and 11-3 to the Over away from home against teams that allow a completion rate of at least 61 percent. We believe the number is too low and we're playing the Over between the Eagles & Patriots on Sunday, Feb. 4. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-21-18 | Vikings v. Eagles OVER 38.5 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 40 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing the Over between the Vikings & Eagles on Sunday. As reported elsewhere, it's been more than a decade since we've seen a championship total this low. Not only do we believe both offenses have the firepower to put points on the board, we also know two things. With these two defenses, there's always the chance for a short field or defensive TD, and there has been talk about the field that has been re-sodded this week. The footing was not perfect on Friday and this benefits receivers who know their routes rather than DB's who are forced to react. Case Keenum and Nick Foles have plenty of weaponry both underneath and deep down field. As far as the number is concerned, this marks the lowest total of the season for the Eagles. It's the fourth time a Vikings' game has had a total below 40 and Minnesota averaged 27 ppg in the previous three. While Minnesota is thought of as a defensive team, we note there have been 21 games under Mike Zimmer against opponents averaging over 350 yards per game on the season and Minnesota and those 21 opponents combined for an average of 45 ppg. Meanwhile, the Eagles have faced seven opponents that hold their opponents under 90 yards rushing per game under Doug Pederson. Philly averaged 32 ppg in those seven outings and there was an average of nearly 50 combined points per contest. I believe the total was set too low. In fact, I'm betting on it. Finally, the weather is expected to be a non-factor. I'm playing the Over between the Vikings & Eagles on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-07-18 | Panthers v. Saints UNDER 48 | Top | 26-31 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing the Under between the Panthers & Saints on Sunday. New Orleans has owned the matchups up front on the offensive side of the football. They ran the ball 27 times for 149 yards in the season's first meeting and 28 times for 148 yards in the rematch. That's an average of 5.4 yards per carry and we believe they'll find ground success again, shortening the game. At the same time, the Saints' secondary is as healthy as it has been in a long time and the defense was the best "stop-unit" the Big Easy has seen in years. Carolina's offense is hamstrung, thanks in part to a banged-up receiving corps and Cam Newton has not looked too hot the last couple games in the passing attack. We believe the Saints will leave the field with the win, but our play is on the Under. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-16-17 | Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 46 | Top | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 64 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing the Under between the Chargers & Chiefs on Saturday night. Before the season began we felt this was going to be an important game in the AFC West, then KC broke out to a 5-0 start, the Chargers couldn't win a game and it looked like the luster was off the contest. But thanks to a KC slide and a Charger run, we now have a battle for the top of the AFC West and with a playoff type atmosphere, we expect to see a defensive football game. KC shut down the Raiders last week, holding Oakland to 268 total yards and 15 points. The Chiefs have held three of their last four opponents to a combined 40 regulation points, or 13 ppg. The Chargers are on a four game win streak and have held their last three opponents to a total of 29 points. They're 2nd in the league in points allowed per game, 3rd against the pass, and 10th in total yards allowed per contest. They aren't too hot against the run (more on that in a bit). Neither offense was able to do much in the first meeting, a 24-10 Chiefs' win. We aren't so sure KC captures this one, but we do believe the value is on another low scoring game. The Chargers are 7-1 to the Under in their last eight games, while the Chiefs are on a 7-0 Under run after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. Finally, with Andy Reid as HC, the Chiefs are 11-2 to the Under against defenses that allow at least 4.5 yards per carry, allowing KC to shorten the game with their desired ground first philosophy. We're playing the Under between the Chargers & Chiefs on Saturday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-03-17 | Panthers v. Saints UNDER 48 | 21-31 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
We're adding a late play on the Under between the Panthers & Saints. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-02-17 | Ohio State v. Wisconsin UNDER 52 | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 65 h 26 m | Show | |
I'm playing the Under between Ohio State & Wisconsin on Saturday. We have teams that'll take similar approaches when they meet. The Buckeyes and Badgers are two of the better running teams in the nation and both coaches would probably rather not have to count on their QB and the passing game. J.T. Barrett is expected to play, but he isn't 100% healthy after leaving last week's game with a knee injury. And Wisconsin HC Paul Chryst would prefer it if Alex Hornibrook doesn't have to throw more passes than he did last time out when he attempted 19. Besides running games shortening the game we also have two top-notch defenses making life tougher on each other's air attacks. Ohio State has allowed a combined 37 points in their last three games, combined, while Wisconsin hasn't given up more than 17 points in any of their last eight games. For what it's worth, Paul Chryst teams are 2-8 ATS against opponents that allow no more than 3.25 yards per carry and they're 1-5 ATS against teams that allow no more than 4.5 yards per play. Power rating totals say this one should have been posted in the 40s. We're taking the Under between Ohio State & Wisconsin. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-23-17 | Chargers v. Cowboys OVER 47.5 | 28-6 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 58 m | Show | |
I'm playing the Over between the Chargers & Cowboys on Thursday afternoon. The Cowboy offense couldn't have looked much worse the last two games, scoring 9 and 7 points. The offensive line is much healthier this week and they'll face a Charger defense with its own health issues. I also believe the Cowboys' offense is getting "just what the doctor ordered" this week, facing the NFL's worst run defense. However, instead of shortening the game, I expect the Dallas ground game to open things up for the passing game. The problem for Dallas this week is their defense. Sean Lee is still out, the defense is banged-up in general and they're basically middle-of-the-pack even when healthy. In fact, they're bottom-third in the league allowing over 24 ppg. There's nothing wrong with the Charger offense in this matchup. The ground game should fare well against the Lee-less Dallas defense that allows 160 yards rushing per game without Lee, rather than 80 yards rushing per game when he plays. Philip Rivers with a ground game is a dangerous thing. Cowboy home games are on a 6-0 Over run when facing teams with a losing road record. We expect more of the same today. We're playing the Over between the Chargers & Cowboys on Thursday. Happy Thanksgiving and best of luck! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-16-17 | Titans v. Steelers OVER 44 | 17-40 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show | |
I'm playing the Over between the Titans and Steelers on Thursday night. Eight of the last 11 meetings in Pittsburgh have gone over the posted total, but Pittsburgh has seen the Under cash in eight of nine games this season, helping this posted total stay lower than it should be. Tennessee allows 24 ppg and the Steelers own the offense to do damage. Marcus Mariota has found himself under pressure at times this season, but we do expect the Titans to do their fair share, facing a banged-up Steeler secondary. The most important injury was suffered by CB Joe Haden, who broke his fibula in last week's game against Indianapolis. This is an area of the field Mariota and company can exploit. We note that 23 of Mariota's 34 games have landed over the posted total. We expect more of the same. I'm playing the Over between the Titans & Steelers on Thursday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-08-17 | Chiefs v. Texans UNDER 45.5 | 42-34 | Loss | -111 | 77 h 41 m | Show | |
I'm playing the Under between the Chiefs & Texans on Sunday night. KC has gone over the total in three of four games this season and Houston rookie QB Deshaun Watson is all the rave, leading his team to 90 points over the last two weeks, combined. We like Watson quite a bit, but we know it's a matter of time before he learns it isn't this easy. We expect both defenses to pick it up in this one and that's what Houston has done in this spot. The Texans have gone under the total in five straight after scoring 30 or more points in back-to-back games. They're on a 1-12 ATS slide after a win by more than 20 points. Meanwhile, the Chiefs, never one to open up the offense on a consistent basis under conservative HC Andy Reid, are just 1-5 ATS off a Monday night game. After all the points we expect a return to norm a bit in this one. I'm playing the Under between the Chiefs & Texans on Sunday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-05-17 | Patriots v. Falcons UNDER 59.5 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -115 | 232 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing the Under between the Patriots & Falcons. Â The Over has cashed in three straight Patriot games, however, New England held those three opponents to 14, 16, & 17 points. Â The Pats are the stingiest scoring defense in the NFL this season, allowing less than 16 ppg. Â You can't run on them and the pass defense is better than average. Â Bill Belichick and his defensive staff are known for taking away an opponents' top offensive threat, which means there's a very good chance that Julio Jones will not be catching long distance tosses from Matt Ryan. Â The Falcon defense has played well of late, also, holding Seattle to 309 yards in their first playoff game, while holding Green Bay to seven points until things got out of hand with ATL leading 37-7 with less than one minute to go in the third quarter of the NFL Championship game. Â I don't expect either team to hold a big lead in the final 15 minutes of this game, and if we're correct, it means we won't be in for a bombs-away, pass-happy approach by the trailing team. Â These teams have been piling up yardage, but we note the Pats are on a 5-1 Under run after topping 350 yards in their most recent game, while the Falcons are on a 6-2 Under run in the same situation. Â I'm playing the Under in Super 51. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-07-17 | Lions v. Seahawks OVER 43 | 6-26 | Loss | -115 | 41 h 58 m | Show | |
I'm playing the Over between the Lions & Seahawks on Saturday night. Â The Lions' defense looks like it's running out of gas, allowing 73 points over their last two games, combined. Â I expect Seattle to attack Detroit deep early in this game as they try to jump out as soon as possible. Â The Seahawks need to loosen up a Lion defense that ranks in the bottom-half in most important categories. Â I also expect Detroit to test the Seattle secondary that's playing without Earl Thomas. Matthew Stafford should find a few open receivers downfield. Â At the same time, I won't be shocked to see his injured finger lead to a possible pick or two, leading to a short field situation for the Seahawks. Â Whichever team is behind in the fourth will continue to have to fire away against beatable defensive units. Â Seattle enters on a 5-1 Over run in their last six playoff games and they're on a 4-0 Over run at home. Â The Seahawks have gone over in six straight home games against offenses that average at least 5.65 yards per play, combining to produce over 57 ppg in those six outings. Â I'm playing the Over between the Lions & Seahawks on Saturday, my Total Knockout. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-01-17 | Packers v. Lions OVER 49.5 | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 35 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm playing the Over between the Packers & Lions on Sunday night. Â Detroit has struggled to put points on the board the last two games, but I expect that to change in this one. We saw 61 combined points in the first meeting, a 34-27 Green Bay win. Â Once again, I do believe this is going to be a situation where the winning team will have to get it done in a high scoring contest. Matthew Stafford has been on the money this season and the receiving corps has made everyone forget about Calvin Johnson. Â Green Bay's defense can be had and has been had all season through the air. Â They're 29th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game. Â The Packer offense, meanwhile, is on fire and Aaron Rodgers has 36 TD passes and just 7 INTs on the season. Â Things have certainly gotten better with Ty Montgomery as a ball carrier, keeping defenses honest, and we expect more of the same here. Â I'm playing the Over in Sunday night's matchup between the Packers & Lions. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-25-16 | Ravens v. Steelers OVER 44.5 | Top | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 59 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing the Over between the Ravens & Steelers, my NFL Total GOM on Sunday. This total is 1 1/2 points or so lower than the total posted in the first meeting. Â Pittsburgh won that game, 21-14. Â But since that game Joe Flacco's passing attempts have have soared. The Ravens' QB got back to throwing a ton of passes like he was doing heading into the loss in Pittsburgh. Â Flacco has averaged over 40 passes per game in Baltimore's last six outings, including 129 passes in their last three. Â This will be Pittsburgh's toughest test in a while. After all, over the last several weeks, the Steeler pass defense has faced QBs named Kessler, McCown, Tolzien, and McAfee, along with the Bills' 31st ranked passing game and the Giants' weak offense. Â I expect the Ravens to exploit some mismatches in this one. Â At the same time, look for the Steelers' 5th ranked passing game to do damage. Â Finally, the weather forecast calls for mild temps in the 40s, minimal winds, and no precipitation. Â I'm playing the Over between the Steelers & Ravens, my NFL Total of the Month. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays! Â Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-03-16 | Falcons v. Bucs UNDER 51 | Top | 43-28 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing the Under between the Falcons & Buccaneers on Thursday night. Â This total is over 50 as I post this, thanks to the top scoring offense in the NFL in the ATL Falcons, facing one of the more permissive defenses in points allowed in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Â But I believe the Buccs are going to control the so called tempo in this one and before playing the horrible defenses of the 49ers and Raiders, the Buccs had scored 17, 7, and 7 points in three of their previous four games. We should note that Atlanta games are on a 6-0 Under run after they gained at least 350 yards in their previous game (367 against Green Bay last week). Â And the Under is on a 47-17 run if the road team has gone over the combined total of their previous three games by 21 or more points, provided they're facing a division opponent. Â We're playing the Under between the Falcons & Buccs on Thursday night. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-30-16 | Chargers v. Broncos UNDER 44 | Top | 19-27 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing the Under between the Chargers & Broncos on Sunday. Â SDG has seen plenty of points on the scoreboard in their games this season. Â In fact, we played them Over just three weeks ago, winning a Total GOW in a 65-point afternoon with Oakland. Â But in between all the high scoring games, the Chargers and Broncos combined for just 34 points in a meeting just 17 days ago. Â SDG was held to 255 total yards, while the Broncos didn't fare much better, gaining 304, despite Trevor Siemien throwing the ball 50 times. I expect more of the same in this one as far as total points scored. Â The Charger defense is strong against the run, forcing Denver out of their offensive comfort zone, while the Broncos are the stingiest defense in the league against the pass and of course, SDG wants to put the football in the air. Â And interesting note: The Chargers are 20-6-1 to the Under after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game, while the Broncos have gone Under in four straight games and they're on an 11-4-1 Under run at home. Finally, the teams have played to the Under in six of their last eight meetings, overall. Â I'm playing the Under between the Chargers & Broncos, my AFC West Total on Sunday. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-16-16 | Colts v. Texans UNDER 48.5 | 23-26 | Loss | -107 | 35 h 34 m | Show | |
I'm playing the Under between the Colts & Texans on Sunday night. Â 74, 54, 48, 57, & 52. Â Those are the combined point totals for the Colts & their first five opponents in 2016. Â But I believe the scoring drops-off in this one. Â The one thing Indy has done well on offense has been passing the football, but Houston is #1 in the league defending the pass. Indy is going to have to establish the ground game on Sunday night. Â Houston has been a disaster in the passing game, averaging just 208.6 yards passing per game as Brock Osweiler struggles to find his groove. Â This has led to an offense averaging 16.4 ppg, the second worst scoring average in the NFL. Â Houston is on a 6-1 Under run at home. Â And in division games, the Under is on a 60-28 run if one of the teams involved has topped its posted totals by at least 35 combined points over their previous five games. Indy has topped their five totals by exactly 40 points. Â Their were 26 points scored between these teams the last time they met and we look for another "low" to cash in this one. Â I'm playing the Under on Sunday night. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-09-16 | Chargers v. Raiders OVER 51 | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 31 h 43 m | Show | |
I'm playing the Over between the Chargers & Raiders on Sunday. Â Just like last week's winning total, we have qualifying spots that provide the icing on the cake. Â The Oakland Raiders are off to a strong start, including last week's big win in Baltimore. Â But the defense has left a lot to be desired and we note that teams like Oakland, home teams allowing at least 360 yards per game are 24-5 to the Over if the total is 49.5 or higher, provided they have allowed at least 375 yards in three straight games. Â Oakland's defense fits the bill. Â There's certainly nothing wrong with the offense that ranks 5th on the ground and 8th through the air. Â They'll face a porous SDG pass defense. Â At the same time, the Chargers' pass offense should find little resistance from the Oakland secondary. Â In fact, the Raiders are 31st in run defense, and a dead last 32nd in both pass defense and total defense and they allow over 26 ppg. We expect a shootout in Oakland. Â I'm playing the Over between the Chargers & Raiders on Sunday, my Total Dominator. Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-02-16 | Cowboys v. 49ers UNDER 44.5 | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 7 m | Show | |
I'm playing the Under between the Cowboys & 49ers on Sunday. Â The Niners have been rocked the last two weeks and the defense has not looked too hot, allowing 46 points in a 19-point loss at Carolina and 37 points in a 19-point loss at Seattle. Â But this has been a typically solid spot for NFL defenses. NFL teams are on a 38-11 Under run after allowing at least 35 points in back-to-back games and are allowing at least 27 ppg on the season, provided the set total ranges from 42.5 to 49. Meanwhile, SFO is 8-0 to the Under at home against teams that average at least 5.65 yards per play. Â The average combined points in those eight games is 30.6 ppg. Â The 49er offense should do their part in keeping this low scoring, ranked 30th in yards passing per game and 29th in total yards. Â I suspect they'll attempt to establish the run with the weak QB situation in place. I also expect the Dallas offense to be hamstrung by a couple of key injuries, including the injury to Dez Bryant, leaving Dak Prescott with one less target. Â We should also note in our Situational play that Dallas is on a 5-1 Under run on the road and SFO is on a 6-0 Under run at home off a road loss by 14 or more. Â I'm playing the Under between the Cowboys & 49ers, my NFL Situational Total. Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-01-16 | Utah v. California UNDER 65.5 | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 39 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing the Under between Utah & California on Saturday. Â We played against Cal last week and cashed a wild one with Arizona State. Â The teams were playing a "normal" brand of football through three quarters before they combined for 55 points in the fourth. It wasn't just a case of offense and bad defense, with turnovers and special teams playing a big part. Â But I expect the defense of Utah to dictate the pace in this one. Â The Utes rank 28th against the pass and 23rd in overall defense. Â Utah's offense will also provide a more traditional attack, again, helping them control the tempo and keeping the Cal offense on the sideline a little more than normal. Â Despite all the craziness, the Bears enter on a 9-3 Under run in Pac-12 play, while the Utes are on a 21-6 Under run off a Pac-12 win by no more than seven points. The average total in Utah's four games this season is 46.25 and this one is nearly 20 points higher. Â Last year's meeting saw 54 combined points scored. I expect more of the same. Â I'm playing the Under between Utah & Cal, my Total Dominator. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-09-16 | Louisville v. Syracuse OVER 68 | Top | 62-28 | Win | 100 | 18 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing the Over between Louisville & Syracuse on Friday night. Â As we saw last week, nothing wrong with the Louisville offense and QB Lamar Jackson, who was a terrific value at 100:1 to win the Heisman just a couple months ago. Â But it's not just about Jackson. Â The Cardinals are loaded at the skill positions, including RB and an outstanding WR corps. Â Syracuse will be hard-pressed to hold this squad in check. Â At the same time, I expect the Orange to put up their share of points sending this game over the posted total. Syracuse has eight starters back on offense from last season. Â HC Dino Babers operates an uptempo passing attack, but again, the Cardinals' offense should find holes in the Syracuse Tampa-2 defense. Â We should note that the Over is 41-13 when the total is 63 or higher, and at least one team (Syracuse) allowed at least a 58% completion rate the season before and held their most recent opponent to no more than 5 1/2 yards per attempt. And while Louisville is on a 5-1 Over run, the, the Orange have gone Over the total in 10 of their last 13 games. More of the same. Â I'm playing the Over between Louisville & Syracuse on Friday night, my OU Dominator. Â Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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