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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-02-17 | Ohio State v. Wisconsin UNDER 52 | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 65 h 26 m | Show | |
I'm playing the Under between Ohio State & Wisconsin on Saturday. We have teams that'll take similar approaches when they meet. The Buckeyes and Badgers are two of the better running teams in the nation and both coaches would probably rather not have to count on their QB and the passing game. J.T. Barrett is expected to play, but he isn't 100% healthy after leaving last week's game with a knee injury. And Wisconsin HC Paul Chryst would prefer it if Alex Hornibrook doesn't have to throw more passes than he did last time out when he attempted 19. Besides running games shortening the game we also have two top-notch defenses making life tougher on each other's air attacks. Ohio State has allowed a combined 37 points in their last three games, combined, while Wisconsin hasn't given up more than 17 points in any of their last eight games. For what it's worth, Paul Chryst teams are 2-8 ATS against opponents that allow no more than 3.25 yards per carry and they're 1-5 ATS against teams that allow no more than 4.5 yards per play. Power rating totals say this one should have been posted in the 40s. We're taking the Under between Ohio State & Wisconsin. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-01-16 | Utah v. California UNDER 65.5 | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 39 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing the Under between Utah & California on Saturday. Â We played against Cal last week and cashed a wild one with Arizona State. Â The teams were playing a "normal" brand of football through three quarters before they combined for 55 points in the fourth. It wasn't just a case of offense and bad defense, with turnovers and special teams playing a big part. Â But I expect the defense of Utah to dictate the pace in this one. Â The Utes rank 28th against the pass and 23rd in overall defense. Â Utah's offense will also provide a more traditional attack, again, helping them control the tempo and keeping the Cal offense on the sideline a little more than normal. Â Despite all the craziness, the Bears enter on a 9-3 Under run in Pac-12 play, while the Utes are on a 21-6 Under run off a Pac-12 win by no more than seven points. The average total in Utah's four games this season is 46.25 and this one is nearly 20 points higher. Â Last year's meeting saw 54 combined points scored. I expect more of the same. Â I'm playing the Under between Utah & Cal, my Total Dominator. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-09-16 | Louisville v. Syracuse OVER 68 | Top | 62-28 | Win | 100 | 18 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing the Over between Louisville & Syracuse on Friday night. Â As we saw last week, nothing wrong with the Louisville offense and QB Lamar Jackson, who was a terrific value at 100:1 to win the Heisman just a couple months ago. Â But it's not just about Jackson. Â The Cardinals are loaded at the skill positions, including RB and an outstanding WR corps. Â Syracuse will be hard-pressed to hold this squad in check. Â At the same time, I expect the Orange to put up their share of points sending this game over the posted total. Syracuse has eight starters back on offense from last season. Â HC Dino Babers operates an uptempo passing attack, but again, the Cardinals' offense should find holes in the Syracuse Tampa-2 defense. Â We should note that the Over is 41-13 when the total is 63 or higher, and at least one team (Syracuse) allowed at least a 58% completion rate the season before and held their most recent opponent to no more than 5 1/2 yards per attempt. And while Louisville is on a 5-1 Over run, the, the Orange have gone Over the total in 10 of their last 13 games. More of the same. Â I'm playing the Over between Louisville & Syracuse on Friday night, my OU Dominator. Â Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-05-15 | Wisconsin v. Alabama UNDER 49.5 | 17-35 | Loss | -118 | 23 h 4 m | Show | |
I'm playing the Under between Wisconsin & Alabama on Saturday night. Both teams are going to have to run the football, or at least attempt to do so. Yes, new Wiscy HC Paul Chryst is bringing a more pro style attack to Madison, but the fact is, his QB, Joel Stave leaves a little to be desired and I don't believe the Badgers will move consistently against the strength of Alabama -- their defense. Plus, Wisconsin must replace three offensive linemen, including RG, LG, and LT. The Badger defense should be a good one and will face an Alabama offense that may not be as dynamic in the early going as they have been in recent seasons. They took a hit in the receiving corps with the departure of Amari Cooper, and no matter who plays QB in this one, whether it be Jake Coker, Cooper Bateman, or Alec Morris, I do believe the Tide will be looking to run the football with a steady diet of Derrick Henry, while playing a little closer to the cuff in the aerial game. Don't make mistakes on offense, while relying on that outstanding stop unit. Alabama and their opponents have averaged a combined 41 ppg the last 53 times the Tide have been a 10 1/2 to 21 point favorite, going Under the posted total in 35 of those games. I'm playing the Under between Wisconsin & Alabama, my Total Beatdown on Saturday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-12-14 | Kent State v. Bowling Green OVER 52.5 | Top | 20-30 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing the Over between Kent State & Bowling Green on Wednesday night. The Falcons look to clinch the MAC East tonight and after a couple of low scoring games, I expect a return to their offensive ways. Bowling Green lost their starting QB to a hip injury in the first game of the season, but they'll head into this one averaging 33 ppg. In fact, despite going with their second string QB since the injury, the Falcons are ranked 31st in the nation through the air and balance it out averaging over 170 yards per game on the ground. The Falcon defense has been another story, allowing over 33 ppg. They rank 102nd against the run, 126th against the pass, and 127th in total yards allowed per game. This is "just what the doctor ordered" for the Golden Flashes' offense...and we should note they averaged 5.57 yards per play in last week's contest. Will this allow for a Kent State SU win? Will they cover? Maybe so...maybe not. But the bottom line for us is that I believe Bowling Green will drag them into a higher scoring game than expected. Wednesday's total also marks the Falcons' lowest set total of the season, 8 points lower than their previous low. Add in Kent State's 110th-ranked run defense, and one that allows nearly 30 ppg and I believe the total has been set too low. The teams are on a 5-1 Over run when they meet and I'm playing the "high" again. I'm playing the Over between Kent State & Bowling Green, my Tapout Total. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-30-14 | Clemson v. Georgia UNDER 54.5 | 21-45 | Loss | -104 | 20 h 46 m | Show | |
I'm playing the Under between Clemson & Georgia on Saturday. A lot of weaponry missing for the Clemson Tigers and while Tajh Boyd is gone, the Tigers will still look to run their QB. Cole Stoudt (probable) has some decent talent to throw to, but no one like Sammy Watkins and they're missing their top RB, to boot. Having said that, I do expect Clemson to exercise a run-first philosophy. Jeremy Pruitt is the new DC in Athens. Pruitt did a fantastic job at Florida State, directing the 'Noles to the #1 defense in points allowed per game and the #3 ranking in total yards per game. He has a lot of returning talent to work with and will face a Clemson offense down a couple notches from a season ago. I also expect UGA to go with the ground game first. Hutson Mason takes over at QB after Andy Murray graduated, but Mason did start the final couple of games last season. He does return a a pair of targets to throw to, but with Todd Gurley in the backfield I expect to see solid use of the ground game. The Under is on a 5-1 run when Clemson faces teams from the SEC. In fact, they're on a 17-5 Under run on the road against SEC opponents with an average combined point total of 44 ppg. Meanwhile, with Mark Richt as HC, Bulldog games have averaged about 47 ppg the last 48 times UGA has been a favorite of 3 1/2 to 10 points. I expect a lower scoring game than the number suggests and I'm playing the Under between Clemson & Georgia, my Total Beatdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-28-13 | Cincinnati v. North Carolina OVER 57 | Top | 17-39 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing the Over between the Bearcats & Tar Heels on Saturday. I look for two strong offenses to trade points in Saturday's Belk Bowl in Charlotte. Cincinnati heads into this one averaging over 33 ppg, while the Tar Heel offense puts over 32 ppg on the scoreboard. QB Brendon Kay leads the Bearcat attack throwing for more than 3,100 yards on the season, while completing over 68% of his passes with 22 TDs. Kay has outstanding targets to throw to. Three Cincy receivers have at least 43 receptions on the season with Shaq Washington (74 rec) and Anthony McClung (68 rec) leading the way. They'll attack a North Carolina defense that allows over 400 yards of offense per game, 71st in the nation. But the Tar Heels should also put their share of points on the scoreboard. UNC QB Marquise Williams has been outstanding since becoming the starter behind center. Williams led his team to a 5-1 record as the starting QB, making the most of his legs, not just his arm, rushing for nearly 500 yards on almost 5 yards per carry. RB A.J. Blue is questionable for this one, but he was one of five Tar Heels to rush for more than 200 yards on the season, which shows the depth this team owns when running the football. Three players have between 895 and 319 yards receiving for Larry Fedora's troops and Eric Ebron leads the way. By the way, Ebron, who was listed as probable last week has stated he can't wait to get after the Bearcats on Saturday. If Ebron's shoulder is healthy...and the team says it is, he's a matchup nightmare for the Bearcats. The good news is that UNC owns the depth to pick up the slack if Ebron can't finish this one. Tommy Tuberville (Cincy HC) teams are on a 12-3 Over run when the total sits from 56.5 to 63. Bearcat games are on an 80% Over run off a SU loss, while the Heels are on an 80% Over run in bowl action. We expect the weather to cooperate with a small chance of rain and most importantly, winds are expected to be at a minimum, blowing about 3-to-5 mph, according to Charlotte forecasts. I'm playing the Over between the Bearcats & Tar Heels on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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12-07-13 | Ohio State v. Michigan State OVER 51.5 | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 23 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm playing the Over between the Buckeyes & Spartans on Saturday night. It seems like just about everywhere I have done radio segments this week I have heard that Michigan State is playing the best football in the Big-10 due to their defense. Yes, the numbers look nice. But I'm not sold that Michigan State can slow the Ohio State offensive attack. Just a few weeks ago, the Spartans were ripped for 5.7 yards per carry by Nebraska. And in fact, if not for Nebraska's self-inflicted wounds, including five turnovers, (at least 3 unforced), the Huskers could have stuck with the game plan of running the ball right at the MSU offense. Not only did Nebraska put 28 points on the scoreboard, but they had four drives of 63 yards or more. If Michigan State thought Nebraska's ground game with limited skill players in the backfield and a heavily banged-up offensive line was tough, wait until they line-up against the OSU offensive line, Carlos Hyde, and Braxton Miller. At the same time, the Buckeye defense has fallen short of expectations, by a long-shot in 2013. OSU has allowed at least 24 points six times this season, while four opponents have scored at least 30 points against the Buckeyes. Ohio State has been horrible against the pass and I do believe underrated MSU QB Connor Cook is going to have to put the football in the air. Michigan State is actually on a 17-2 Over run after gaining at least 6.25 yards per play in at least two straight games. The Spartans and their opponents combined to average over 69 ppg in those 19 outings. Since Mike Dantonio has been HC in East Lansing, there have been 34 MSU games with totals posted from 49.5 to 56. The Spartans are 22-12 to the Over in those outings with Mich State & opponents combining to average more than 57 ppg. I expect another high scoring game and I'm playing the Over between Ohio State & Michigan State on Saturday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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12-07-13 | Stanford v. Arizona State UNDER 56 | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
I'm playing the Under between Stanford & Arizona State on Saturday night. These teams met early this season with Stanford winning 42-28. A quick look at the score looks like we had a high scoring game in that September battle. Offense dominated, right? Well...not exactly. Three of Stanford's TDs came at the end of 37-yard, 17-yard, and 16-yard drives. They also kicked a FG on a possession that began at the ASU 40-yard line and racked up a safety for good measure. That's 26 points on drives that started at the Sun Devil 40 or deeper. Arizona State, meanwhile, did nothing offensively until Stanford HC David Shaw somewhat called off the dogs leading 39-7 through three quarters of play. These teams are familiar with each other thanks to the early-season game and the defenses will have the advantage. The Cardinal are on a 6-0 Under run against teams with a winning record and they're on a 12-3 Under run on the road over the last three seasons with an average combined point output of 47 ppg in those games. I'm playing the Under in Saturday's Pac-12 championship. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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11-28-13 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State UNDER 54 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm playing the Under between Mississippi & Mississippi State on Thursday night. Both offenses are hamstrung with QB issues as they head into this one. Bo Wallace is expected to start for the Rebels, but he has been dealing with flu symptoms and weariness for a week. Mississippi State has even worse problems at QB. Dak Prescott, who leads the team in both passing and rushing is not expected to play (elbow). Last week's starter, Tyler Russell is questionable to play thanks to an injured shoulder, which means third-stringer Damien Williams is expected to get the start. Williams played last week and scored the game-winning TD against Arkansas, but third string QBs are that for a reason. Both teams play a decent brand of defense and obviously know each other's tendencies. MSU has allowed a grand total of just 37 points combined in their last two games against Alabama and Arkansas, while the offense has been sluggish. Ole Miss, meanwhile, is allowing just 20.75 ppg in their last four contests. Mississippi State heads into this one on a 12-3 Under run at home off a road win and they're on a 13-6 Under run in their last 19 home games, overall. I expect more of the same in this one. I'm going against the original early move and playing the Under in the Egg Bowl on Thursday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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11-14-13 | Georgia Tech v. Clemson UNDER 59.5 | Top | 31-55 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 60 m | Show |
I'm playing the Under between Georgia Tech & Clemson on Thursday night. Many people automatically think they're in for a high scoring game when one of these two teams is involved. But that's not necessarily the case and I'll explain in a bit. Last year's meeting resulted in 78 combined points which also gives us value on the "low" tonight. But Clemson is as much about defense as it is offense this season. The Tiger's allow just 363.9 total yards per game and they rank 23rd allowing just 20.6 ppg. Take the game against Florida State out of the mix and the numbers are even better. Clemson has a couple of advantages against the unusual Georgia Tech attack, playing against it in conference action on a regular basis is one, and they have had 12 days to focus on shutting the option down as they head into tonight's tilt. Ga Tech's defensive numbers are even better than Clemson's. The Jackets are top-15 in points allowed per game, yards rushing per game, and total yards allowed per game. They have held their last three opponents to a grand total of just 35 points, combined. I expect a lower scoring game than the posted total suggests. Clemson is 6-0 to the Under as home chalk of 7 1/2 to 14 with Dabo Swinney calling the shots, holding the six opponents to 20 ppg. Also, Clemson games average a combined 46.8 ppg with extra time to prepare (bye week) the last 38 times. I'm betting on more of the same. I'm playing the Under between Ga Tech & Clemson on Thursday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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11-09-13 | Kansas v. Oklahoma State OVER 51.5 | Top | 6-42 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing the Over between Kansas & Oklahoma State on Saturday afternoon. Playing the Over blindly when the Cowboys are at home would have you on a 49-22-1 Over run, including 34-16 to the Over with Mike Gundy calling the shots. In fact, when this team gets the offensive momentum going, you certainly don't want to stand in front of the oncoming Cowboy train. Under Gundy's direction, Oklahoma State has averaged over 51 ppg at home after scoring at least 37 points in each of their two previous games (9-0, 100% Over). OSU scored 58 & 52 in their last two games. That high-flying potential faces a KU defense that ranks 99th in total yards allowed per game and 96th in points allowed per contest. The adjustment on the total is pretty alarming compared to recent meetings. The last four times these teams met, the posted totals were 67.5, 74.5, 65, and 67.5. Eight of the last nine meetings have gone Over this year's total and I expect more of the same on Saturday. I'll be shocked if OSU doesn't reach 45 points in this one, which means a normal output from Kansas sends us well Over the posted number. And finally, Cowboy games are 11-1 to the Over at home following a two-game road trip, averaging a combined 79 ppg (home-sweet-home). The last two situations combine for 20-1 spots. Look for another high scoring game. I'm playing the Over between Kansas & Oklahoma State, my Tapout Total on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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11-01-13 | USC v. Oregon State UNDER 53 | Top | 31-14 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing the Under between USC & Oregon State on Friday night. The two biggest problems for USC just a few weeks ago were their HC Lane Kiffin and the lack of true USC-type firepower on offense. One problem has been resolved, but other than oft-injured WR Marquise Lee, (probable), there isn't a lot of consistent quick-scoring threats on this Trojan offense. Defensively, USC is stout and leads the conference in total defense. Oregon State will have some problems in the trenches. They're a team that struggles to run the football but I suspect will look to develop a ground game to a certain extent early-on to keep the heat off QB Sean Mannion. They cannot afford to be one-dimensional in this contest. So, for those reasons, I'm looking for a lower scoring game than many expect. The Trojans gained just 260 yards in last week's 19-3 win over Utah. They're a team that doesn't easily kick it into gear after struggling on offense, going 5-0 to the Under after gaining 275 yards or less. They're also 13-3-1 to the Under after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game and they're 8-2 to the Under in their last 10 games, overall, which falls right in line with the lack of game-breakers I mentioned earlier. I'm playing the Under in tonight's matchup between USC & Oregon State. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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10-25-13 | Boise State v. BYU UNDER 61 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing the Under between Boise State & BYU on Friday night. These teams played a 7-6 contest last season and while I expect more offense in this one, I'm betting the total will stay Under the posted number. BYU & Houston combined for 72 of their 93 points in the first half alone. There were a ton of miscues leading to big plays, including a "pick-6" and a kick-off return for a TD. Things settled down after halftime and the teams combined for a total of just 21 points. Despite the 46 hung by Houston, BYU's defense is underrated. They're still 29th in scoring and in the top 40 in total yards allowed per game and yards rushing allowed per game. BYU will be looking at a Boise offense playing without QB Joe Southwick. Instead, junior signal caller Grant Hedrick will get the nod. Hedrick completed 18-of-21 passes last week in a 34-17 win over Nevada. Most of the 21 passes were of the short and safe variety and Hedrick threw 1 INT and no TDs. I expect to see a mix of packages by the BYU defense in this one to attempt to confuse Hedrick, who hasn't started and completed an entire game since he was in high school, although he did come in very early last week. Hedrick will tend to look to pull the ball down and run and that helps us when looking at a lower scoring game. Before last weekend, BYU had played just one game this season with a posted total of 60 or higher...losing that one, 20-13 to Utah with the game staying way under the total. The Cougars are on a 15-5 Under run when facing teams with a winning SU record and they're 4-0 to the Under against teams from the MWC. I'm playing the Under between Boise State & BYU on Friday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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10-24-13 | Kentucky v. Mississippi State UNDER 56 | 22-28 | Win | 100 | 18 h 5 m | Show | |
I'm playing the Under between Kentucky & Mississippi State on Thursday night. What a difference a year makes! If you wish to back a high-scoring game tonight, you're "paying for it." These teams meet every season and the last five matchups have seen posted totals of 48.5, 42, 54.5, 47, and 38.5. Granted, the teams are much different on offense than they were five years ago, but Kentucky's offense can flat-out stink up a stadium. The Wildcats are ranked 101st in total yards per game and 105th in scoring, averaging just 20.3 ppg. Making matters worse for the 'Cats is an ankle injury to QB Jalen Whitlow, who is doubtful to play in this game. Instead, Maxwell Smith is expected to start and play the entire game. While Smith has passed for more yardage than Whitlow, he can't escape pressure. Smith is not a runner in the least. Whitlow, meanwhile, is Kentucky's third leading rusher (238 yards on 4.9 yards per carry) and he's second on the team in rushing attempts. The lack of a mobile or dual-threat QB hamstrings the Wildcats' offense even more than it already was. Mississippi State allows just 364.5 yards per game and I expect a serious clampdown in this one. Only one of MSU's first six opponents (LSU) has topped 24 points against them this season and they even held Oklahoma State to 21 points. The Under is 7-2 when the Bulldogs are off a bye and 26-10 when they're playing a team with a losing record. The Under is on a 4-0 run when Kentucky is off a double-digit home loss. I'm playing the Under between Kentucky & Mississippi State on Thursday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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10-19-13 | Duke v. Virginia OVER 52 | Top | 35-22 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing the Over between Duke & Virginia on Saturday afternoon. Duke QB Anthony Boone is back, completing 31 of 38 passes in last week's 35-7 win over Navy. Duke's offense has been flying under the radar, scoring 35, 38, and 55 points in their last three games. At the same time, they have allowed 31, 58, and 38 points in three of their last four games. Duke defended Navy's option-based attack well last week, but it's no easy task switching back to defending a more "normal" offense the following week. Virginia is allowing over 27 ppg and 75 points combined in their last two outings. The offense has been clicking, piling up 505, 459, and 580 yards in three of their last four games. The Cavaliers will look to build on the balance shown in last week's 27-26 loss to Maryland. They're going to have to. After all, Duke not only scored 42 points on the Cavs' defense in last season's 25 point win, but they also gained over 5 yards per carry on the ground. We have seen posted totals of 55, 53 1/2, and 55 the last three times these teams have met with an average point total scored of 71.3 ppg. This season's meeting has a lower point total than any of the last three meetings, but I expect the total combined points to eclipse last year's total of 59. Duke enters on a 9-2-1 Over run in ACC play, while the Cavaliers have gone over the total in four of their last five games. I'm playing the Over between Duke & Virginia on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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