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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-01-24 | Alabama +2 v. Michigan | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 209 h 1 m | Show |
Alabama/Michigan 5:00: Can't ignore the Wolverines 0-6 bowl mark in its last six attempts. Four of those teams were from the SEC and a few of them ugly losses. Sure, Michigan brings to the field the power run game behind a well-disciplined offensive line. But keep in mind that Alabama has faced some explosive run games in the SEC and fared quite well; as a matter of fact, they're in the top quarter percentile in rush yards allowed and yards per carry. And QB McCarthy was shaky down the stretch. Alabama has dynamic cornerbacks in McKinstry and Arnold. And another dominant edge rusher in Turner in a unit that averages 3 sacks per game. Offensively, QB Milroe progressed substantially since that early season benching after Texas. He's had a sensational season 23/6 TD/INT 2716 yards passing. He has a strong supporting cast in a productive offense that is much better than what the stats indicate. Wolves have the #1 defense, but this is the best offense they faced all season. Alabama the call. |
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12-16-23 | Georgia Southern v. Ohio +3 | Top | 21-41 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
Georgia Southern/Ohio University 11:00: Physical vs finesse, we'll grab physical most of the time. The more physical Bobcats of Ohio University sports the #5 scoring defense in the nation (15.4 PPG) and #4 in yards allowed (264). Their offense compliments their defense by pounding the ball with RBs Bangura and Allison behind a sturdy offensive line. And veteran QB Rourke has been in Athens seemingly forever. Georgia Southern under former USC HC Helton brings a pass happy offense (#1 in pass attempts) with QB Davis Brin. He can air it out yet has little run support (104th nationally with 104 YPG). He's been sacked 2.4 times per game. That does not bode well vs the opportunistic Ohio defense that thrives on forcing turnovers. And the GS defense is yielding to the tune of allowing nearly 400 YPG and 30 PPG - both in bottom tier nationally. GS lost its bowl game last year to another MAC team - Buffalo. This year, look for the Bobcats to the do the damage to them and record their first ever back-to-back 10-win seasons. |
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11-25-23 | Ohio State +3.5 v. Michigan | Top | 24-30 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Ohio State/Michigan Noon: Both teams know this is for all the marbles. Ryan Day, especially, aware of the grumblings from boosters, fans, administrators demanding a win after going 0-2 vs that school up north. A few really good OSU coaches were run out of town for losing this game. This season, OSU has the best player on the field - Marvin Harrison Jr. who shows up in big games, as exhibited against the stalwart defense of Penn State. And Egbuka, Stover, and versatile RB Henderson give QB McCord plenty of weaponry behind a very good offensive line. Michigan does have the #1 scoring defense in the nation, but this is undoubtedly the best offense they've faced. Defensively, Buckeyes sport the #2 scoring defense in the nation behind DC Knowles. Knowles acknowledged his errors during this game last season and spent hours tweaking his system for this specific game. Michigan, offensively, has been more one dimensional with only OC Sherrone Moore on the sidelines. His QB McCarthy struggled (52%) last week at Maryland. Not having Harbaugh on the sidelines for support here could be costly in critical moments. Interesting to note that Michigan is 0-15 SU in their final Big Ten game of the season since 2001 when not favored by more than 5 points. On the other hand, OSU a sweet 9-0 ATS as a dog of more than 3 points. Buckeyes the call. |
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11-18-23 | Washington v. Oregon State -1 | Top | 22-20 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
Washington/Oregon State 7:30: Revenge game for Oregon State. The Beavers lost 24-21 at Husky Stadium last season. Tonight, they have the undefeated Huskies in their dominant confines of Reser Stadium where they are 16-1 SU since 2021. Washington's QB Penix Jr. is having a phenomenal year but face a tenacious defense that gets after the QB (3.5 sacks per game). Washington's run game not the greatest (101st nationally). On the other hand, Beavers a bit more balanced with RB Martinez carrying a lot of the load and it's helping QB Uigalelei turn in a solid season. We'll look for Oregon State to deliver tonight. |
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11-11-23 | New Mexico State +4.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 38-29 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
New Mexico State/Western Kentucky 3:30: Hilltoppers QB Austin Reed can sling it and gets a lot of press; however, over the course of the game with a limited run game (114th nation) and a yielding defense (130th in yards allowed), they've eked out a 5-4 SU record this season. On the other hand, Jerry Kill's Aggies are 7-3 SU and gaining momentum just like they did last year down the stretch on their way to a bowl win. Their 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games, and tough as nails QB Pavia is running their offense to perfection. Like their chances here, especially with their solid ground game and a defense that allows just 20 PPG. NMS the call. |
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11-04-23 | Army v. Air Force -17.5 | Top | 23-3 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
Army/Air Force 2:30: Army really struggling to gain traction this season. The primary reason for their demise is the inexplicable decision to go to a shotgun spread offense. They don't have the personnel with speed, quickness and accuracy at QB to stretch a field and win on one-on-one matchups. And their undersized offensive line won't intimidate the attacking defense of Air Force ranked #3 in the nation in yards allowed and #4 in points allowed. On the other hand, Air Force ground game #1 in the nation -grinding out 300 YPG led by steady QB Zac Larrier. Army's run-stop-unit is allowing a generous 183 YPG. Army has covered four straight in this series but the Falcons are laser focused on this one to bring home the coveted Commander-in-Chief's Trophy. This one is played at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver. Lay the wood with Air Force. |
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10-28-23 | Tennessee -3.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 17 h 8 m | Show |
Kentucky/Tennessee 7:00: Tennessee was within grasp of knocking off Alabama last week; as a matter of fact, prior to that game, Vol's HC Heupel was 22-0 with a lead at halftime. Tonight, look for Tennessee to bounce back strong. Vol's are 9-1 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back road games. They've covered at Lexington five straight times. Kentucky is coming off back-to-back losses after a strong start. They're off a bye week but just 1-6 ATS with rest. Kentucky defense has struggled against fast tempo offenses. Defensively, they're not deep enough up front and have been shredded in the secondary to the tune of 68% completions. Look for Tennessee QB Milton to get back on track. Kentucky offense has a run game but QB Leary not getting it done. They're facing a very good Tennessee defense that's well rounded across the board. Tennessee the call. |
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10-21-23 | Ole Miss v. Auburn +6.5 | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
Ole Miss/Auburn 7:00: Auburn on an 0-3 SU slide including last week's 48-18 demolition in Baton Rouge. Don't count the Tigers out. Hugh Freeze is a sweet 6-2 SU / 7-1 ATS as an SEC dog of less than 7 points. The Tigers have covered 3 of the last 4 in this series. And although Ole Miss looks like the clearcut favorite to thrash the offensively challenged Tigers, they have their weaknesses. Rebels' secondary has been torched repeatedly this year (261.5 YPG -112th nationally) and it may be what the doctor ordered for the struggling QBs of Auburn. Fortunately, the Tigers have a ground game (192 YPG) and a respectable defense that is stewing over last week's no show. Ole Miss a money burning 4-24-2 ATS as a road favorite of less than 16 points. Auburn the call. |
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10-14-23 | Texas A&M v. Tennessee -3 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
Texas A&M/Tennessee 3:30: Two SEC heavyweights clash but scheduling advantage to Tennessee. Both teams equipped with productive offenses and aggressive defenses that can get after the QB. We'll give the edge to Joe Milton and company. Tennessee is well rested after their 21-point burial of South Carolina back on 9/30. They've had this past week to rest and heal. Meanwhile, Aggies coming off a bruising battle in a loss to Alabama. HC Fisher now sports a money burning 2-10 SU/2-9-1 ATS mark as a dog of less than 5 points. And the Aggies are a dismal 1-11 ATS vs an opponent with rest off a SU/ATS win. With the Volunteers at a sweet 10-1 ATS vs conference opponent off SU/ATS loss, we'll jump on the Volunteers here. |
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10-12-23 | West Virginia -3 v. Houston | Top | 39-41 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
West Virginia/Houston 7:00: West Virginia has a sound football team this year that isn't flashy but gets the job done. After an opening season loss to Penn State, the Mountaineers have reeled off four straight wins. They're winning with a solid run game, limiting mistakes, and playing tough defense. QB Greene won't overwhelm you with stats but he's a good leader, can run the football and limits mistakes (0 interceptions). On the other hand, Holgorsen (former WV head coach) and his bunch got blown out by two teams (TCU & Texas Tech) the Mountaineers beat. And they also lost to their in-state stepbrother - pass happy Rice. The Cougars' offense is good but their defense leaves much to be desired. Cougars sport a sluggish 106th ranked defense that allows a generous 4.6 YPC. Both of these teams are well rested, dormant since 9/30. Houston is a money burning 0-5 ATS at home with rest. WV a sweet 5-0 ATS on weekdays. We'll lay a FG on the road with West Virginia. |
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10-07-23 | Boston College v. Army -2.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
Boston College/Army Noon: Boston College coming off a satisfying come from behind win over struggling Virginia. Meanwhile, Army had the week off to stew over their second half collapse against Syracuse on 9/23. QB Bryson Daily threw two costly interceptions to seal Army's fate. The well-disciplined Knights have made a winning history of avoiding getting behind the sticks. This year, they've gone into the shotgun but still have the run-game a staple of their offense. Army has grinded out 219.5 YPG this season. Look for Army to attack a Boston College run-stop-unit that allows 4.2 YPC. Getting on the scoreboard early against the BC defense which allows 162 YPG, will be crucial. BC offense is notoriously slow out of the gate this year scoring a paltry 2.8 points average in the first quarter. We'll look for Monken's well-disciplined Black Knights to start strong and this time finish. |
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09-30-23 | East Carolina v. Rice -3 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
East Carolina/Rice 7:00: Rice is 3-1 ATS, including covers at Texas and an outright win at home vs Houston. Defensively, they're yielding and give up yards and explosive plays. Today, however, they face a pedestrian offense (4.3 YPP) with little explosive play potential. And that's including last week's 44-0 demolition over lightweight Gardner-Webb. They're unsettled at QB after record setting QB Ahlers left. Flinn and Garcia rotate in at QB in an offense that produces a paltry 282.5 YPG. On the other hand, Rice has an offense capable of outscoring its opponent. Vagabond QB J.T. Daniels, who went from USC to Georgia, West Virginia, and now calling the signals at Rice. He airs it out in a pass happy offense. He sports a respectable 11/3 TD/INT. East Carolina has exhibited little pass rush at 0.8 sacks per game. Daniels should put up some big numbers today and outshoot the Pirates. |
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09-23-23 | Maryland -7.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 31-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
Maryland/Michigan State 3:30: Michigan State program in tatters as Mel Tucker (suspended) is on his way out and defensive back coach - Harlon Barnett trying to hold the program together. Last week, Washington walked into East Lansing and dropped a 41-7 whitewashing on them. Maryland has very good skill players including QB Taulia Tagovailoa (Tua's little brother) who's having another solid season (67% completions). Michigan State can rush the passer but their strength is also a big weakness. The overly aggressive blitz packages the Spartans dial up result in repeated explosive plays given up; as a matter of fact, they're 99th in the nation vs the pass and 121st in completion % allowed at 67%. Maryland HC Locksley usually strong in early season action and should follow up with win and cover here. |
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09-16-23 | Virginia Tech v. Rutgers -6.5 | Top | 16-35 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
Virginia Tech/Rutgers 3:30: Rutgers boasts a Top 10 defense taking on a VT squad that still has difficulty generated a run game in the 2nd year of Brent Pry's offensive system. Moreover, Hokies' QB Grant Wells, who completed just 53% of his passes so far, is hobbling on a bad ankle. And his top targets Jennings (ankle) and Lane (hamstring) may not play. Rutgers' defense allows just 1.7 YPC and should shut the Hokies pedestrian offense down. Offensively, Rutgers' HC Schiano is old school and likes to wear opponents down with stout defense and a run game with play action. So far so good for the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers is 10-0 ATS after scoring more than 35 points vs an opponent off a SU favorite loss. Rutgers the call. |
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12-30-22 | Clemson -5.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
Tennessee/Clemson 8:00: Tennessee was well on its way to play in the CFP when QB Hooker went down vs South Carolina. Former Michigan QB Joe Milton, who has a rifle of an arm, came in to save the season but couldn't, as the 2nd loss of the season sent them to this bowl. Milton did lead the Volunteers to a decisive blow out win over Vanderbilt, albeit the run game is what gutted the Commodores defense. That won't happen against the well-disciplined Top 20 defense of Clemson. And although Joe Milton has the arm strength to stretch a defense, he doesn't have the accuracy to do it against Clemson's. Furthermore, he won't have his top two receivers - Hyatt and Tillman (NFL draft opt outs). On the other hand, Clemson won't have their starting QB D.J. Uiagalelei who already transferred to Oregon State. And that's a good thing because Klubnik, who came into the game in the ACC Championship and lit up the UNC secondary, is the better option and should have been the starter. Tennessee's secondary (127th in the nation) is not very good. Klubnik should light it up like a torch. Clemson HC Swinney has an excellent bowl record and should have his men finishing strong as a springboard for next year. Clemson the call. |
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12-03-22 | Purdue +17 v. Michigan | Top | 22-43 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
Purdue/Michigan 8:00: Michigan off a huge upset of Ohio State. Harbaugh should have them prepared and at even keel tonight facing the Boilermakers. Michigan is well rooted in the CFP so this won't be an absolute must win. For Purdue, they have nothing to lose. And let it be known, Purdue is dangerous under HC Brohm vs ranked opponents going 7-6 SU; moreover, he's an incredible 22-6 ATS as a dog of 4+ points including 2-0 SU/ATS in that role this season. Take the points. |
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12-02-22 | Utah v. USC -2 | Top | 47-24 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 12 m | Show |
Utah/USC 8:00: USC a win away from playing in the CFP for the first time. With OSU on their tail, they must win and possibly convincingly to deliver no doubt in CFP Management Committee's mind. Utah no joke; after all, they're well coached under Whittingham and will always play hard. And on paper, Utah has a much better defense, solid special teams and a productive Top 20 offense. However, a closer look reveals Utah has not covered all season vs a winning team (0-4 ATS). And Cameron Rising had a big opportunity at Oregon November 19th to take Utah to another level but flopped miserably with three interceptions costing his team the win. Sure, he helped deliver a controversial SU win (loss ATS) over USC October 15th in the comfortable confines of Rice-Eccles Stadium. Tonight, in Las Vegas, I see the Heisman Trophy frontrunner - Caleb Williams and the explosive, yet efficient (1 turnover) USC offense getting the job done. And don't put a whole lot of stock into the yielding defense of USC (allow 405 YPG). They have a ball hawking secondary and created 21 takeaways - 2nd nationally! USC delivers! |
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11-25-22 | Baylor +10 v. Texas | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
Baylor/Texas Noon: Two teams near evenly matched in a lot of ways. Both with solid run games, good defenses, well coached. Baylor has gone 3-0-1 ATS in this series including an outright last season. And Baylor will surely not roll over here after heartbreaking loss last week to TCU. Bears are 5-1 ATS off a SU loss, and they're 5-1-1 ATS in Austin. They'll surely try to establish the run game vs Texas; after all, Baylor has grinded out 230+ yards in 4 of its last 5 games behind a mammoth OL. Reese has carried a majority of the load. Shapen is at his best when the run game is cooking. On the other side of the ball, Aranda has developed another rock-solid defense to counter explosive NFL bound RB Bijan Robinson and a solid QB in Ewers. Baylor leads the conference in interceptions in 13. Too many points to give this team. Baylor an amazing 16-0 ATS as conference dogs of more than 4 points vs an opponent off a SU/ATS win. Texas has failed to cover in two attempts this season coming off blowout wins. Baylor the call. |
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11-19-22 | Iowa v. Minnesota -2.5 | Top | 13-10 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
Iowa/Minnesota 4:00 Iowa has owned this series to the tune of 7-0 SU/6-0-1 ATS. But in the bitter cold of Huntington Bank Stadium where temperatures are dropping to 10 degrees with 14 MPH winds, Gophers should pull this one out today. Sure, Iowa is winning games with a Top 10 defense and special teams with little contribution from an offense ranked 130th in the nation. But Iowa offensive struggles should prove to be costly here. Gophers should hitch the wagon to their horse - RB Mo Ibrahim who has 18 consecutive starts with 100+ yards. And he's tough. 70% of his 1261 rush yards have come after contact - most of any Power 5 player. Four quarters of pounding him behind the mammoth Minnesota offensive line which averages 6'5" 318 pounds per person, should eventually cave in the Iowa defense. On the other hand, Gophers' defense very stout - 8th in the nation in yards allowed and 4th in the nation in points allowed. Going to be tough for Iowa to move the football. And I do realize the Hawkeyes are rolling on a 3-0 SU/ATS run; however, they're 0-12 ATS after three consecutive ATS wins. Minnesota the call. |
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11-05-22 | Baylor +3.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
Baylor/Oklahoma 3:00: Both teams run the football well, have above average QBs and athletes who can make plays; however, the difference is in the defensive execution. Oklahoma has been gutted on the ground to the tune of 198 YPG. Baylor's defense allows just 113 YPG. Baylor will surely attempt to exploit the Sooners' run stop unit with leading rusher Reese; consequently, that should eventually open the RPO windows vs the Sooners' linebackers. On the other hand, defensive minded Baylor HC Aranda should have his unit well prepared to face QB Gabriel and company. Baylor's covered this series for 4 straight and finally have near equal talent as Oklahoma. Oklahoma 1-5 ATS before West Virginia and 0-5 ATS at home vs an opponent off back-to-back SU/ATS wins. Baylor the call. |
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10-29-22 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State +1.5 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
Oklahoma/Iowa State Noon: Both teams coming off bye weeks but Iowa State a bit healthier. Sooners S Bowman still on the mend. Iowa State has dropped four straight conference games yet competitive (by a combined 14 points). The Cyclones are looking to avenge last season's 28-21 loss at Norman. Cyclones' HC Matt Campbell has a deeply rooted staff including a terrific DC in Jon Heacock. Cyclones have a Top 10 defense in not only yards allowed but points allowed (15.1 PPG). They play the pass well and should be able to contain Sooners' QB Gabriel. On the other hand, Sooners' defense has been atrocious - allowing 31 PPG (103rd nationally) with a poor run stop unit allowing 207 YPG. Cyclones have good weapons offensively including NFL bound Xavier Hutchinson (758 yards). And QB Hunter Dekkers is gradually living up to his potential coming out of high school as one of the most prolific passers in Iowa HS football history. He'll have RB Brock to help alleviate some pressure. Matt Campbell a dangerous conference dog at 25-8 ATS including 17-3 ATS when opponent is coming off a win. Iowa State should deliver. |
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10-22-22 | Purdue +2 v. Wisconsin | Top | 24-35 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
Purdue/Wisconsin 3:30: Wisconsin has amazingly gone 15-0 SU in this series. Purdue has competed well in Madison though at 3-0 ATS under Brohm. Today, the Boilermakers should notch their 5th straight win and defeat the Badgers to become bowl eligible. They're catching the Badgers off a double-OT defeat at Michigan State. They're 1-1 SU/ATS since DC Leonhard took over for fired Paul Chryst. Both teams are similar in defensive philosophy, highly opportunistic, and good run stoppers; however, where the Badgers lack is the passing game under Mertz. He's doing well, but run game isn't what it was in years past with RB Allen the leading rusher. As for Purdue, RB Mockobee emerged last week with a big game as another strong runner to give support to QB Aidan O'Connell - who's well-groomed under Brohm. Today, we'll look for the Boilermakers to finally break the losing streak vs Wisconsin. |
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10-08-22 | Wisconsin v. Northwestern +10.5 | Top | 42-7 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
Wisconsin/Northwestern 3:30: Two struggling Big Ten programs. Wisconsin, off their latest loss to Illinois last week to fall to 2-3 on the season, fired HC Paul Chryst. DC Leonhard takes over HC duties. Meanwhile, Northwestern fell to Penn State in a rain-soaked mess at Happy Valley. The Wildcats dropped to 1-4 with only win coming vs Nebraska in Week O in Dublin, Ireland. That was a Top Play then, and I'm back on Fitgerald as a Top Play here. Wildcats looking to avenge last year's 35-7 whitewashing in Wisconsin. Wisconsin doesn't have the run game this year that they've had in recent years. Last week, Illinois held them to 2 rush yards on 24 carries! And defensively, have slid this year as well (50th in scoring defense). Northwestern has been marred by turnovers (9) and need to clean it up quick. Weather calls for sunshine in Evanston with a bit of wind. We'll look for QB Hilinski to get it together this week. Northwestern has covered 9 of the last 10 at home vs Wisconsin; moreover, Fitzgerald is an amazing 10-1 ATS as a dog with revenge vs .500 or fewer opponent. Northwestern the call. |
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10-01-22 | West Virginia +9.5 v. Texas | Top | 20-38 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 38 m | Show |
West Virginia/Texas 7:30: I'm surprised the Mounties are getting these many points. In recent years, this series has been relatively close, and WV actually is 3-0 ATS in Austin. The Mounties played well on the road this season almost knocking off Pittsburg, destroyed Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. JT Daniels is poised in the pocket and has a serious run game (217.5 YPG) to lean on. Texas defense, however, having trouble stopping both the run and pass; consequently, that doesn't bode well laying 9' points! Texas got whipped 23-31 last year at West Virginia; however, they're a poor 1-6 ATS at home after allowing 35+ points vs an above .500 team. West Virginia the call. |
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09-24-22 | Minnesota -3 v. Michigan State | Top | 34-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
Minnesota/Michigan State 3:30: Gradual erosion taking place at Michigan State. Last season, defensively they yielded 46 YPG more than in 2020. And their secondary ranked 85th but managed an 11-win season and bowl win. They did make big plays, but the wagon is no longer hitched to Heisman finalist Kenneth Walker III. Last week, Washington exploited the Spartans' weaknesses as QB Penix lit up the secondary for 397 yards and 4 TDs. On the offensive side, the Spartans' offensive line couldn't get their top running back going (27 yards on 13 carries). QB Payton Thorne isn't a guy that can carry the team without a strong run game. Minnesota comes in to East Lansing off 3 blowout wins and hungry. Their offense is equipped with a mammoth front line that's opening truck sized holes for their horse Mohamed Ibrahim (464 yards rushing). And veteran signal caller Tanner Morgan is helped with the return of OC Ciarocca this season. Gophers lighting up the scoreboard (47.2 PPG). Minnesota has had success at East Lansing (4-0 ATS). With the road team in this series at 4-1 ATS, we'll roll with the Gophers. |
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09-17-22 | Colorado State v. Washington State -16.5 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
Colorado State/Washington State 5:00: Washington State coming off one of the most impressive non-conference victories in school history. They went into Madison, Wisconsin and knocked off the Badgers as a 17.5 point dog. The Cougars' defense held the vaunted Wisconsin run game to less than 4 YPC. Now, the Cougars will take on a Rams' unit that is 130th out 131 teams running the football with a paltry 36 rush YPG. And their QB Millen has been sacked 16 times! It's not that their skill personnel is bad, it's an offensive line that can't block anyone. Jay Norvell won't figure it out just yet. i don't believe Washington State will suffer a letdown here. Cougars covered 4 of last 5 at home and are 15-6 ATS at home vs a team with a losing road record. |
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09-10-22 | Memphis v. Navy +5 | Top | 37-13 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
Memphis/Navy 3:30: Memphis program eroding ever since Norvell left for Florida State. Silverfield now 0-10 ATS on the road with Memphis. I definitely don't feel comfortable laying points on the road here in a double revenge situation for Navy. Navy is coming off a disappointing loss to Subdivision Delaware Hens. Navy played uncharacteristically sloppy (3 turnovers) against the Hens. Look for the discipline to be instilled this week under well-organized Navy HC Niumatalolo. Memphis, which got lit up in the air against Mississippi State last week, must now turn their attention to assignment football against the Midshipmen Triple-Option. Not an easy transition. Navy sports a 5-2 ATS mark in this series and the home team is 5-0 ATS. Memphis is 0-8 ATS as a favorite of less than 10 points vs an opponent off a SU favorite loss. Grab the points at home with the Midshipmen. |
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09-03-22 | Houston v. UTSA +4 | Top | 37-35 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Houston/UTSA 3:30: Houston super hyped off their successful 12-win season and an eyeball focused on joining the Big 12 next season. And this one is heavily overweighted with betters pounding Houston. Hype has not been good for Houston; as a matter of fact, since 1949, each time they've come off a double-digit win campaign, they've averaged just 6.5 wins the following year. Holgersen will tease you with a modicum of success and let you down the next. Don't discount UTSA and HC Traylor. They're coming off a highly successful 12-win season themselves. And lots of great skill personnel coming back including QB Frank Harris who can flat out ball. Btw: Roadrunners are 10-1 ATS as a dog of 9 points or less. Grab the points. |
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01-10-22 | Georgia -2.5 v. Alabama | Top | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 18 h 18 m | Show |
Georgia/Alabama 8:00: Kirby Smart assembled his best team yet and he's overdue to finally beat his mentor -Saban. In the SEC Championship, Alabama QB Bryce Young was able to set his feet and make amazing throws in tight windows of a step slow Georgia defense. Smart will surely make the needed adjustments with his amazing versatile athletes of Dean and Travon Walker while not tiring out mammoth DL Jordan Davis - like he was on December 4th. The good news for Georgia and a key loss for Alabama is 1000+ receiving yard WR John Meche III (out). He was a key part in that game (6 receptions for 97 yards and a TD) before his injury. Now the Bulldogs' secondary can focus their attention on Alabama superstar receiver Jameson Williams. The 'Dogs can either roll coverage to him, bracket him or double him leaving Bryce Young without a proven secondary downfield threat. On the offensive side of the ball, Bulldogs will establish heavy doses of RB Zamir White behind their dominant offensive line coupled with play action to superstar TE Brock Bowers - that no defense has found an answer for. QB Stetson Bennett has progressively gotten better after adversity and we'll look for his moment of glory to arrive as a solid game manager. Interesting stat is Georgia is a sweet 14-0-1 ATS as a favorite of less than 13 points with revenge. We'll look for Kirby Smart to finally get the best of Saban. |
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12-31-21 | Georgia v. Michigan +7.5 | Top | 34-11 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 5 m | Show |
Michigan/Georgia 7:30: Michigan coming into this one with lots of confidence after blowing out Ohio State and winning the Big 10 Championship decisively. Georgia, on the other hand, came out of the SEC Championship with a lot of uncertainty after getting blasted by Alabama. Georgia's Smart doesn't lose often but is only 1-4 ATS off a SU loss. Not convinced they're 7.5 favorites here. Michigan is very well balanced in every facet of the game. Wolverines possess an outstanding offensive line (Joe Moore Award winner) to counter the formidable defensive front of Georgia. Wolverines' run game with Haskins and Blake Corum is the best the Bulldogs face this season. And QB McNamara has been an excellent game manager who limits mistakes (only 3 INTs in 264 attempts). His numbers (2,301 yards, 14 TDs, 64% Comp) don't jump off the page but his on-field leadership is tremendous. And he has a solid receiving corps including clutch TE Erick All. As for the Bulldogs' offense, their TE Brock Bowers will surely be the focal point of the passing game and Michigan should be well prepared to counter. Georgia's QB Bennett a solid game manager but he can be rattled in big games as his 2 INT's in the Alabama game suggests. And Michigan has a solid run-stop unit that surely respects Geogia's powerful run game but has demonstrated that it can limit explosive plays (#4 in points allowed). Moreover, they can rush the passer with Hutchinson and Ojabo collecting a combined 25 sacks! With these teams matching well, I'm taking the points with the hungry underdog that finally got over the hump in the Harbaugh era and raging with confidence. |
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12-28-21 | Louisville v. Air Force +1.5 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
Air Force/Louisville 3:15: Air Force leads the FBS in rushing with 341 YPG with multiple backs gobbling up chunks of yardage. QB Daniels runs the offense well and he sports 5 YPC in his 705 yards rushing. Sure, Louisville had 2 1/2 weeks to overcome getting gashed (362 rush yards) by Kentucky; however, very tough to simulate the precision, speed, rhythmic motion of the Falcons' triple option attack with a scout team. That kind of speed and precision can't be simulated. Cardinals' defense allowed 157 YPG during regular season. Defensively, AF is fundamentally sound in all areas and a Top 10 defense in terms of yards allowed. They have playmakers at all levels. Cardinals' versatile QB Malik Cunningham is a major playmaker and won't be stopped. AF has the discipline to contain him to a certain extent. AF has done well in bowl games and rise to the occasion as its 23-9 ATS non-conference and 6-2 ATS bowl ledger suggests. Cardinals 0-3-1 ATS vs MWC. Air Force the call. |
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12-04-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette +3 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
Appalachian State/UL-Lafayette 3:30: Appalachian State eager to exact revenge on the Ragin' Cajuns after their October 12th 41-13 beatdown. Sure, the Mountaineers have been on a winning mission since, simplifying their offense and playing stellar defense en-route to a 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS tear. And the Mountaineers have beaten UL-L in the last two Sun Belt Championships. But don't count the Ragin Cajuns out. Sure, Billy Napier is headed to Florida but he insists on coaching this final game to guide his men to what has eluded him in his outstanding tenure at bringing back UL-L football to respectability. He's got a great defense, a veteran, versatile QB Levi Lewis and a hungry group of men. And the Cajuns do not lose at home. We'll look for Napier and his boys to go out winners. |
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11-26-21 | Iowa v. Nebraska -1 | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 33 m | Show |
Iowa/Nebraska 1:30: Nebraska showing progress in every category except the scoreboard. They're in virtually every game covering their last two, including dropping 351 yards passing on a stingy Wisconsin defense. And in this series, Frost's Cornhuskers have covered the last 3 but lost SU. We'll look for Frost to finally get his team in the SU win column here. Iowa has lost the statistical battle in their last 5 games and went 1-4 ATS during that frame. Iowa defense not what it was earlier in the season. Nebraska QB Martinez has been around for the entire Frost era and we'll look for him to go out with a win here. Nebraska the call. |
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11-20-21 | Syracuse +11.5 v. NC State | Top | 17-41 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
Syracuse/NC State 4:00: Good value with a Syracuse team that last week got ambushed early at Louisville and couldn't recover. But not so fast in dismissing the Orange; after all, they're 6-0 ATS off a SU loss and 9-1 ATS off a SU loss of 20+. Orange have the #1 run game in the ACC with 1300+ yard rusher Sean Tucker and versatile QB Garrett Shrader who between them have 24 rushing TDs. And when the run game is going, Schrader can get into a groove passing. Defensively, they have a Top 25 defense that can get after the QB (3.3 sacks per game). NC State is coming off a disappointing 45-42 loss to Wake Forest in a game they expended everything in the tank on. Wolfpack just 2-6 ATS after scoring 40+ and 3-9 ATS in November. 'Cuse needs 1 win to be bowl eligible and with Pittsburgh on deck, Syracuse should leave it all on the field in this revenge game. This series is competitive and the road dog is 4-1 ATS. Go Orange! |
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11-13-21 | Minnesota +4.5 v. Iowa | Top | 22-27 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Minnesota/Iowa 3:30: After two straight losses, Iowa slugged by Northwestern last week. Iowa's defense great but their offense is sluggish (123rd in nation). Lurking in the shadows are the Gophers who got beat by Illinois as a 14' point favorite. I wouldn't put it past HC Fleck to be looking ahead to this game. One year ago today, Iowa blasted the Gophers 35-7. Big revenge here and we'll grab them. Minnesota is 11-0 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite. They're 6-1 ATS on the road vs conference foes. Minnesota doesn't have an explosive offense but a potent run game behind a dominant offensive line. The Gophers lost their top running backs including Potts yet still control the 21st ground game in the nation with 208 YPG. Backups Thomas and Irving doing a solid job. QB Tanner Morgan is a veteran QB that's had a rough stretch. Look for him to show up to play today. On the other hand, as of now Iowa has to go with backup QB Padilla who will make his first career start in place of injured Petras (shoulder). Padilla did a solid job against the mediocre Northwestern defense but Minnesota controls the #7 defense in the nation and has a formidable front that can pressure QBs. Hawkeyes just 0-5 ATS after scoring less than 20 points. We'll row the boat with Fleck and his Gophers. |
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11-06-21 | Mississippi State +5 v. Arkansas | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
Mississippi State/Arkansas 4:00: Mississippi State starting to roll on a 3-1 SU/ATS tear after beating down Kentucky last week. In that game, QB Will Rogers completed a near flawless 92.3% of his passes vs a pretty solid Kentucky defense. Arkansas' defense pretty good too; however, Miss State spreads the field and stresses secondaries. The Bulldogs have 6 players with 26 or more receptions. On the other hand, Mississippi State has a top 5 run stop unit in the country and has the horses to effectively counter Arkansas' power run game. The Bulldogs control a Top 20 defense and create turnovers (#20 nationally). Arkansas is coming off a bye week after blowing out subdivision lightweight Arkansas-Pine Bluff - their fist win since upsetting Texas A&M in late September. Mississippi State a perfect 7-0 ATS vs an opponent off a bye and 3-1 ATS in this series at Arkansas. We'll look for the Bulldogs to avenge last year's 21-14 home loss. Mississippi State the call. |
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10-30-21 | Texas v. Baylor -2.5 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
Texas/Baylor Noon: Both teams well rested coming off byes; however, Bears in better shape sitting at 6-1 while Texas has dropped their last two conference games and sitting at 4-3. Texas has been able to put points on the board with its explosive offense; however, they're unable to finish games because of a leaky defense. They've given up nearly 430 YPG and nearly 30 PPG. Baylor, on the other hand, continues its defensive success giving up nearly 100 YPG less than the Longhorns. Baylor's new offensive coordinator - Grimes - bestowed an offense to the Bears this season; something they lacked considerably last year under Fedora. The Bears' RB Abram Smith is coming off a 188 yard rushing game vs BYU. And they're in good hands with QB Bohanon (12 TD passes/1 INT with a 66% completion percentage. Baylor looking to avenge last year's 27-16 loss should get it done. Longhorns 3-7-1 ATS last 11 meetings. Baylor the call. |
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10-16-21 | Purdue +11.5 v. Iowa | Top | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
Purdue/Iowa 3:30: Iowa has defeated three ranked opponents and feel really good about themselves. However, lurking in the shadows is a formidable Purdue team that's had their number. Purdue HC Jeff Brohm 3-1 SU/ATS vs Iowa. Purdue has a Top 20 defense that can limit the pedestrian Iowa offensive attack. Of course, Iowa controls an opportunistic defense #1 in the country creating turnovers (16) with a ball hawking secondary. However, Purdue QB Jack Plummer has yet to throw an interception in an offense that's turned the ball over just 1 time this season. Purdue is coming off a bye with extra prep and should stay in this game. Purdue a sweet 14-0 ATS as a road dog of more than 11 points. We'll grab the points. |
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10-02-21 | Ole Miss +15 v. Alabama | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Ole Miss/Alabama 3:30: Last season, Ole Miss gave Alabama trouble despite having the worst defense in the nation. This season, Ole Miss defense much improved yet still possess that dangerous offense. As a matter of fact, Ole Miss is producing 635 YPG (#1 nationally) and QB Matt Corral has emerged as a Heisman favorite and he has yet to throw an INT. Alabama showed their vulnerability against Florida and won't have an easy time here. Ole Miss off a blowout home win over a good mid major in Tulane. The Rebels are 8-0 ATS as a road dog off a SU/ATS home win. We'll take the points with Kiffin's boys. |
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09-25-21 | Missouri -1 v. Boston College | Top | 34-41 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
Missouri/Boston College Noon: Eagles can thank their schedule maker for 3-0 start. First three of their opponents went a combined 1-12 last season. Today, a significant upgrade. BC won't have starting QB Jurkovec (wrist surgery) and will go with Grosel - who actually looked good as a fill in. BC will rely on ground game which is cooking and, at the same time, attack the week spot of the Missouri defense. But Missouri has the offensive arsenal to more than enough trade points. Missouri the call. |
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09-11-21 | Washington v. Michigan -6.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
Washington/Michigan 8:00: Washington, projected #20 team a few weeks ago, sustained a horrible loss to D1 Subdivision Montana last week. Sure, they were missing their top three receivers; however, prognosticators had Washington's offensive line ranking in the Top 5 in the country. The o-line surely didn't show it by getting pushed around by the Grizzlies. They averaged a meager 3.8 YPC on the ground, while QB Morris was 27 or 46 for just 226 yards. Meanwhile, Michigan ripped Western Michigan a new one the Big House and welcome the Huskies tonight. Sure, the Wolverines lost their star Bell (knee) but QB McNamara does have other options. RB Corum is running well behind a revamped Michigan offensive line. That surely helps open up the pass game. With Washington's receiving corps (lost Polk last week too) week to week and having to travel near cross country to the Big House, tough environment and task for Washington. We'll lay the TD. |
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09-06-21 | Louisville +10 v. Ole Miss | Top | 24-43 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
Louisville/Ole Miss 8:00: Louisville took a step back last season under Satterfield after an impressive 2019 campaign. We'll look at that as an anomaly with several instances of Covid19 protocol going into effect for the Cardinals. This year, the entire offensive line is back which helped QB Malik Cunningham and company produce an average of more than 200+ yards in both run and pass the last 2 seasons. Ole Miss has one of the worst defenses in the nation last season and had to outscore opponents to win games. They're still loaded offensively as Matt Corral has a great supporting cast. Louisville defense had some good showings last season and do return 7 starters with a number of players who got plenty of playing time. We'll look for Louisville to hang with the Rebels. Satterfield is 52-5 when scoring 30+ points. That's doable tonight! |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State +9 v. Alabama | Top | 24-52 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
Ohio State/Alabama 8:00: Was all over Ohio State against Clemson and I'm staying on them here. Despite the Covid19 issues, the Buckeyes overwhelmed a really good Clemson team. OSU's underrated defensive line held more than its own against a very good Tigers' offensive line. Sure, Alabama's line is arguably the best but All-American C Landon Dickerson (leg) is a big loss. OSU's front 7 generated a nice pass rush against Clemson and will be challenged to do the same vs the Alabama machine. Question is: Can the Buckeye's defensive backs contain Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith, RB Najee Harris and possibly the return of Jaylen Waddle (ankle). Don't think Waddle will play much, limited or at all, but Mac Jones surely plays pitch and catch routinely with receivers throughout 2020. Tonight, they face a pretty good Buckeyes' secondary with Ransom, All-American C Shaun Wade and Sevyn Banks. And OSU is in good hands with FS Josh Proctor in center field. We'll look for them to pick their shots zoning Metchie and Bolden while bracketing DeVonta Smith. As for the Alabama defense, they've been vulnerable to mobile QBs and remember, Ole Miss put 647 yards on this defense. And Florida thrashed their secondary as well. Look for OSU to feed red hot RB Sermon while QB Justin Fields (ribs) will work Alabama's freshmen DBs Moore and Branch with OSU's good receivers led by Chris Olave. Bottom line, OSU capable of trading points with Alabama and will need to win turnover battle and excel on special teams. OSU a perfect 10-0 ATS as dogs of 3 or more points. Buckeyes the call. |
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12-19-20 | Boise State v. San Jose State +7 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
Boise State/San Jose State 4:30: SJS no longer the MWC whipping boy. Fourth year Spartans' HC Brent Brennan has his men playing good football; as a matter of fact, they're one of only three teams to improve their overall offense by 100+ for two years straight; moreover, also improved 60 YPG defensively. And he's got the Spartans in the MWC Championship despite a mediocre, at best, recruiting class. He does, however, have playmakers on both side of the ball including Arkansas transfer QB Nick Starkel who's thrown for 1,453 yards, 13 TD/4 INTs in 6 games. Defensively, they get after the QB with Cade Hall (8 sacks) leading the rush. Sure, Boise State no joke and another year of being a worthy contender for the MWC title; however, Brent Brennan is 6-0-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit ATS win and we'll roll with the Spartans. |
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12-12-20 | Boise State v. Wyoming +10 | Top | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 16 h 53 m | Show |
Boise State/Wyoming 6:00: Boise State feeling good after coming off their successful road trip to Hawaii back on November 21st; however, 21 day lay off won't sit well in the highest elevation (7200 feet above sea level) in the football nation in Laramie. It will be cold, snow and wind gusts about 15 MPH. It fits well with Wyoming's grind it out on the ground game with their big offensive line and solid RB Trey Smith (154 yards last week). Sure, Boise has a great receiver in Shakir but the Wyoming pass rush should be disruptive on QB Fennegan. And Boise has had just one 100+ run game all season. We'll look for the hungry Top 25 Wyoming defense to deliver. Wyoming's underrated HC Bohl's a sweet 6-0 ATS at home off a SU loss vs a .500 or greater opponent. Him and his Cowboys are seeking triple revenge here. Cowboys dangerous off losses at 4-0 ATS and we'll grab the points. |
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12-05-20 | West Virginia +6.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 6-42 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
West Virginia/Iowa State 3:30: Big backer of Iowa State and Matt Campbell over the last 4 seasons but will fade them here. Coming off a huge win over Texas, feeling good and in line for Big 12 Championship; however, they're welcoming revenge against a coach (Neal Brown) who sports an 8-1 ATS mark as a road dog with revenge. Brown's Mountaineers got beat up pretty good at home last year 38-14. This season, WV has been in virtually every game (5-2 ATS) with a legitimate Top 10 defense and a good run game behind RB Leddie Brown. And QB Doege doing a decent job at the helm. Iowa State's had some trouble in December football at 1-6 ATS. And WV has a history of delivering vs an opponent off back-to-back wins at 11-0 ATS! Throw in that extra prep week for Neal Brown and we got ourselves a play on the Mounties. |
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11-27-20 | Notre Dame v. North Carolina +6 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
Notre Dame/North Carolina 3:30: Never a good idea to underestimate Mack Brown getting his team prepared for big games. Brown has always been a dangerous dog including last year's 21-20 loss as a 27' point dog to Clemson. This year's team was expected to do great things but has underachieved; however, they're more than equipped with more maturity to keep this competitive against the #2 ranked Irish. Irish coming off a bye but will be without four year starting RG Tommy Kraemer (appendectomy). They're already without C Patterson (foot). Sure, NC defense gives up points but their explosive #4 offense (563.4 YPG) can trade points with any team in the country. QB Howell is as good as any QB in the nation. And keep in mind NC sports a +4 turnover margin to ND's -2 turnover margin. ND offense has made mistakes and the yielding but opportunistic Heels' defense can capitalize. Tar Heels 4-1 ATS as a home dog and a sweet 25-7 ATS at home vs a team with a winning road record. Mack Brown's boys have been strong off underachieving performances (5-1 ATS off ATS loss) and should deliver here. |
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11-14-20 | Arkansas +17.5 v. Florida | Top | 35-63 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 5 m | Show |
Arkansas/Florida 7:00: Arkansas now a perfect 6-0 ATS after delivering 24 unanswered points last week vs Tennessee. Tonight, we're back on the Hogs. They're facing an overjoyed Florida team coming off a a monster 44-28 win over Georgia. Sure, QB Kyle Trask is lighting it up but won't have his go-to receiver TE Kyle Pitts (concussion protocol). Arkansas won't have HC Pittman (Covid 19) but former Missouri HC and current DC Barry Odom is capable of filling in. Arkansas defense leads the nation in forced turnovers (12) and no joke. Offensively, former Gator - Feleipe Franks - doing a nice job running offense. The Hogs play solid ball with limited turnovers and should be able to hang around here. We'll look for Arkansas to improve to 9-0 in the dog role. |
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11-07-20 | West Virginia +5.5 v. Texas | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
West Virginia/Texas Noon: Texas is coming off OT win over Oklahoma State. It is a game in which the Longhorns finished with a 530--287 yard deficit. Texas has been playing behind virtually all year. Today, a good challenge awaits vs the vengeful Mounties. WV, which won easily over Kansas State last week, lost 42-31 last year in Neal Brown's first season. Don't dismiss Neal Brown in revenge. At Troy, he went 6-0 ATS as a road dog with revenge. He's got a solid QB in Doege, a Top 10 defense across the board, and an overall relatively healthy team. TX, on the other hand, has injuries to key personnel (Ingram), thin in the secondary, and is 14 yards per game less than West Virginia's offense but a much more yielding defense. Texas is 1-10 ATS after scoring 35+ points vs an opponent with revenge. WV the call. |
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10-24-20 | Tulane +21 v. Central Florida | Top | 34-51 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Tulane/UCF 2:00: UCF has its share of defensive woes giving up a whopping 518 YPG. Tulane has one of the top 3 run games in the nation pounding out 229 YPG and can work the soft UCF defensive core to keep the explosive #1 offense off the field. Even so, Tulane is soft in coverage but has two menacing defensive ends that can bring heat. Tulane stayed in this game last year for a 31-34 cover as an 8 point dog. HC Fritz is a dangerous revenge coach and 8-0 ATS as a road dog of 17 or more points off back-to-back SU losses. Tulane the call. |
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10-17-20 | Pittsburgh +13.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 19-31 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Pittsburgh/Miami Fla Noon: We won't underestimate Narduzzi as a coach. He's pulled some amazing upsets in his head coaching career. He's currently coming off two straight losses, each by 1 point. He's got another quality defense that can get after the passer with bookends Jones and Weaver. The Panthers' secondary will need to tighten up after allowing too many yards through the air the last few weeks; however, Miami Fla, which does have a very good QB King, but his receivers aren't the quality of NC State's or BC's. Pitt does a good job of stopping the run (52 YPG) and they're 3rd in the nation in sacks and 4th in TFLs. Offensively, QB Pickett (ankle) is questionable and the line is dictating he will not play. Fortunately, Arizona State transfer - Joey Yellen is a capable backup to keep this competitive. Pitt is 10-4 ATS off a SU loss and the road team in this series is 7-3 ATS. Revenge for Pitt from last year's 16-12 defeat. |
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10-03-20 | Baylor v. West Virginia +1.5 | Top | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
Baylor/West Virginia 12:00: Baylor and their new coaching staff are excited along with fans on the blowout of KU. But I'm not putting a whole lot of stock into that win considering the Jayhawks lost to lightweight Coastal Carolina the previous week. WV battled a very good Oklahoma State team despite the loss of their starting QB. WV's HC Neal Brown will have his men clean up their game this week. Sloppy play, penalties cost them. That's uncharacteristic of a Neal Brown coached team. We'll look for his offensive line to improve dramatically this week. The Mounties are looking to avenge last year's 17-14 loss (covered +17') at Baylor. Brown likes to run the rock and has a pretty good pair of backs and a decent QB in Doege. Brown is 6-0 as a home dog and we'll look for him to school Baylor's new HC Aranda. |
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01-13-20 | Clemson +6.5 v. LSU | Top | 25-42 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
Clemson/LSU 8:00: Exciting matchup with the undisputed two best teams in the nation. Burrow and his amazing offense coupled with an LSU defense that really came on strong down the stretch; as a matter of fact, few weaknesses in this LSU machine as HC Orgeron was the beneficiary of the most talented team in the nation. Nevertheless, LSU, like any other team, has its weaknesses - albeit very few- that can be exploited. Assuming veteran Clemson DC Venables has his Top 5 Pass Defense in the Nation limiting explosive plays, LSU may have trouble scoring TDs in the Red Zone where LSU struggles a bit; as a matter of fact, inside the 10, LSU's Red Zone Offense ranks 61st in the nation. Clemson doesn't have natural pass rushing edge rushers but bring heat from a variety of positions to be 3rd in the nation in sacks. Venerables loves using hybrid S/OLB Simmons from all angles and he can even cover RB Edwards-Helaire out of the backfield. As for Clemson offensively, QB Lawrence doesn't have to take a backseat to anyone. He's a proven winner with a great supporting cast including Tee Higgins, Ross and arguably the most explosive RB in the nation Etienne. LSU's defense has allowed 11 rushes for 30+ yards this season. Coaching edge to Swinney who is a money making 9-1 SU/ATS as a dog in a Playoff or Bowl! Clemson the call. |
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12-30-19 | Illinois +6.5 v. California | Top | 20-35 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
Illinois/California 4:00: Impressed with the Fighting Illini who snuck up on foes of the Big Ten. Illinois turned in a strong season finish with a 6-0 ATS run down the stretch with QB Peters, including outrights over Wisconsin, at Purdue and at Michigan State. He was concussed in the finale loss to NW. He's back for this one and Illinois should deliver. California started strong but injuries curtailed their progress throughout the season. Their offense, ranked in the bottom tier of the NCAA, does not scare anyone. And their defense, which was outstanding last year, regressed a bit this season. Cali is 1-6 ATS in December and 1-6 ATS on a neutral field. With the Illini at 5-0 ATS as a dog, we'll ride Lovie and his boys here. |
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12-07-19 | Wisconsin v. Ohio State -15.5 | Top | 21-34 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
Wisconsin/OSU 8:00: Hard to stop the Buckeye machine this year with a perfect season and 9-2 ATS in the process. Moreover, they usually stay hungry this time of year with a 4-1 ATS December ledger. They dominated Wisconsin in Columbus back on October 26th taking away Wisconsin's biggest threat - Jonathan Taylor. OSU allows a miniscule 232.6 YPG and surely QB Jack Coan isn't going to dent the ball hawking secondary. OSU usually wins the battle in the trenches and Wisconsin can't beat them there. On the other hand, OSU QB Justin Fields (MCL) is good to go after the scare at Michigan. He's got a crap load of weapons including J.K. Dobbins to do more damage. OSU feeds off blowouts as their 10-2 ATS mark off a SU win of 20+ indicates. OSU the call. |
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11-30-19 | Wake Forest -3.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 30-39 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
WF/Syracuse 12:30: Nothing left to play for but pride for Syracuse. An underachiever this year at 4-7 and home for the holidays. On the other hand, WF overachieved this year and going bowling. Morever, Clawson and his boys are out to avenge last year's 41-24 home shellacking. This season, boasts the 17th ranked offense in the nation and should move the ball up and down the swiss cheese Syracuse defense (111th ranked). Offensively, Syracuse has had QB problems all season. Tommy Devito did not live up to expectations; of course, he had big shoes to fill with Dungey (Browns) leaving. WF usually wins against losing teams and should deliver here.  |
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11-23-19 | Texas A&M +13 v. Georgia | Top | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
Texas A&M/Georgia 3:30: Georgia now in the #4 spot after getting by Auburn. And they're likely "eating the cheese" as they relish another shot at the National Championship; however, not so fast as Texas A&M is no joke. They're coming off a blowout of South Carolina and usually handle blowout wins well as their 7-2 ATS mark indicates after a 20+ point win. A&M QB Mond has plenty of weapons at his disposal, a sound offensive line as well. Georgia's defense, as good as it is, can be worn down late as indicated last week after Auburn actually outrushed them. A&M HC Fisher can call plays with the best of them. And A&M's defense highly underrated. The Aggies lost all 3 to Top 10 opponents (Clemson/Alabama/Auburn) yet competive in all. Pretty good value here as A&M looks for their signature win. With Georgia just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 homies, we'll grab the points. |
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11-22-19 | Colorado State +7 v. Wyoming | Top | 7-17 | Loss | -130 | 21 h 52 m | Show |
Colorado State/Wyoming 9:30: Wyoming has struggled since they lost their duel threat QB in September. They're offensive line is also banged up after coming off 2 straight losses. Rams, meanwhile, have gone on a 3-1 SU/ATS run. They lost their QB Hill (ACL) but O'Brien has done a nice job as the backup. Rams are coming off a home loss to Air Force; however, AF triple option difficult to prep for in a week. Rams are 10-2 ATS off a double-digit loss at home. And they're 18-6 ATS in their last 24 road tilts. With the road team at 5-1 ATS in this series, we'll grab the TD with the road team. |
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11-16-19 | Oklahoma v. Baylor +10.5 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
Oklahoma/Baylor 7:30: Oklahoma has had its share of problems against winning Big 12 teams. Last week we cashed in on Iowa State as a road dog and they were a 2 point conversion away from steeling a SU win. Tonight, it won't get any easier for the Sooners. They're defense has worn down over the course of the season as the 48 and 41 points in back to back weeks indicate. They'll have their hands full with QB Brewer and company who have an experienced offensive line that's plowed backs to 188 YPG (5 YPC); morover, they spread the field as well as anyone in the league with a plethora of athletes. On the other hand, Baylor's defense held its own with some pretty good offenses. Sure, this is the best offense they'll face, but we'll give the edge to the home team in revenge mode. Sooners just 4-9-1 ATS in last 14 road games. Baylor hangs tight. |
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11-09-19 | Iowa State +15 v. Oklahoma | Top | 41-42 | Win | 100 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
Iowa State/Oklahoma 8:00: Iowa State used to be the whipping boy for Oklahoma before Matt Campbell got there. To think the Sooners were 73-5-2 SU in the history of this series with routine blowouts for years. Enter Matt Campbell and the Cyclones' culture has changed. Campbell is 3-0 ATS the Sooners including the amazing 38-31 outright as a 31 POINT DOG in Norman in 2017! Campbell still is equipped with enough weaponry to be more than competitive tonight. QB Brock Purdy not as flashy as Hurts but every bit as tough a competitor. he's got a great TE to go to in Kolar, solid steady receivers and an emerging freshman RB in Breece Hall. Defensively, Cyclones every bit as solid as Oklahoma. And remember, Cyclones have out-gained every opponent this season except Baylor (-6). Iowa State 7-0 ATS as a dog off a SU/ATS loss and dangerous here. |
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11-02-19 | Georgia -6 v. Florida | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 4 h 51 m | Show |
Georgia/Florida 3:30: Despite double-revenge motive for Florida, I'm staying with Georgia here. Gators, and surely reserve QB Trask, will face the best defense in the SEC today. Bulldogs have allowed 267 YPG or 4.3 Yards Per Play. Georgia takes away the run game and makes it extremely difficult to pass downfield. On the other hand, Georgia's run game has continued to roll. They're pounding out 238 Yards Per Game behind RB Swift. In this series, the team that has won the run game has won the game. Veteran QB Fromm should be the benefactor behind Swift to keep the vulture like Florida pass rush unit at bay. Favorite in this series 4-0 ATS and we'll roll with Georgia. |
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10-19-19 | Tulsa v. Cincinnati -16.5 | Top | 13-24 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
Tulsa/Cincinnati 3:30: Cincinnati not ready to hang with the likes of Ohio State yet but can surely handle the lightweights of the American Athletic. Tulsa is included in the lightweights after two sub-par season under HC Montgomery. The Golden Hurricane is coming off their 2nd straight loss - 45-17 whitewash vs Navy on their home field. Now, they travel to a pretty strong venue - Nippert Stadium where the Bearcats have covered 4 straight. Bearcats have a solid defense and an offense that can make plays behind QB Ridder who has a dangerous target in WR Medaris. Hurricane defense demoralized vs Navy - allowing 388 yards on the ground. Fickell is 5-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite and we'll roll with him and Cincinnati here. |
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10-12-19 | Memphis v. Temple +4.5 | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
Memphis/Temple Noon: Rod Carey doing another bang up job to continue Temple's success. Carey, who had great success at Northern Illinois, came over to Philadelphia this season to start the Owls at 4-1. He has some talent to work with as Temple continues to improve its numbers. They're a Top 20 defense and #10 vs the pass which will be vital in stopping the Memphis ground game and QB Brady White. I believe his men are up for the challenge; so far, they've held their last 2 opponents to 5 of 28 on third down. And offensively, the Owls can pound the rock as RB Davis has accumulated 503 yards rushing behind a veteran offensive line. QB Russo has his limitations but makes plays. Memphis just 1-10 ATS on the road vs opponent off a double-digit SU win. Temple's covered four straight in this series and Rod Carey has always been a dangerous conference home dog of a coach. |
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09-07-19 | LSU v. Texas +7 | Top | 45-38 | Push | 0 | 1 h 18 m | Show |
01-07-19 | Alabama v. Clemson +6 | Top | 16-44 | Win | 100 | 188 h 50 m | Show |
Clemson/Alabama 8:00: Closely matched teams with NFL caliber talent across the board. I will go with the stability of the Clemson coaching staff and hungry, revenge seeking (last year's 24-6 semi-finals loss) Tigers. Dabo Swinney is a dangerous bowl dog at 7-1 ATS and he's fielding a better team this year. Sure, Bama is loaded with talent but coaching decisions loom large at times. They let Oklahoma hang around and it almost cost them. Oklahoma and QB Murray simply ran out of time. Clemson presents a much tougher challenge defensively despite the absence of Lawrence. Clemson run stop unit allows a meager 2.6 Y.P.C. and presents an unappreciated secondary not getting respect. Clemson's defensive front can bring heat on Tua (ankle still hurting) to force errant throws in the ball hawking Clemson secondary. We'll look for Clemson's veteran DC Venables to dial up the right schemes taking away top Alabama target Jeudy. On the other hand, Alabama has shown breakdowns in their secondary - Oklahoma - that QB Trevor Lawrence can exploit. And keep in mind that Clemson can run the rock. Clemson led the nation in rushing at 7.4 Y.P.C. RB Etienne is a big time playmaker. Moreover, Alabama will not have an answer for WR Hunter Renfrow and rising star Ross. Clemson the call. |
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01-01-19 | Kentucky v. Penn State -5.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
Kentucky/Penn State 1:00: Kentucky sneaked up on teams early with the power run game but defenses adjusted later in the season forcing QB Wilson to throw more; unfortunately, Wilson didn't scare any secondaries. Penn State's defense well schooled and should limit Snell and company. On the other hand, Penn State's all time leading passer McSorely should continue his big play resume and go out a winner. He's got another great complimentary running back Miles Sanders. Penn State the call. |
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11-24-18 | Michigan -3.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 39-62 | Loss | -110 | 110 h 54 m | Show |
Michigan/OSU Noon: I mentioned before the season started that Michigan had what it took to be a Final Four team; at this time, I still believe that. The Wolves have the #1 defense in the nation vs the pass and in total yards. Sure OSU QB Haskins is putting up big numbers but I'm not sold on him being a big game QB, especially in crunch time. He did help deliver a dramatic come from behind win at Penn State but got an amazing catch and run help from WR Ben Victor. And sure, OSU will see the end zone, their offense (#2 in the nation) is too prolific to stop. But defensively, OSU allows way too many yards; as a matter of fact, the Buckeyes allow nearly 180 more yards per game than Michigan's defense. That will not cut it against the offense Harbaugh has finally spent years building. And he finally landed the QB he wanted in Shea Patterson. Patterson should have a big game against an OSU defense that has sacked the QB only 19 times this season. That's twelve fewer than last year; of course, Nick Bosa's absence hurt them. But bottom line, OSU's defensive problems have resulted in a 1-6 ATS slide for them. I jumped on Michigan early in the week when this line opened; of course it has been bid up to -4' but still worth jumping on. I do realize that OSU is a dog for the first time in 51 games; however, it's well justified here as Harbaugh gets his first victory over OSU with authority! |
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11-23-18 | Buffalo -14.5 v. Bowling Green | Top | 44-14 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Buffalo/Bowling Green Noon: Bowling Green feeling pretty good about themselves after back-to-back wins against conference lightweight - Central Michigan and offensive inept Akron. Today, back to reality for them as Leipold's boys run them ragged. The Bulls, coming off an embarrassing defeat to a very good Ohio U team, should have it together today. Buffalo is 5-0 ATS off a double-digit ATS loss vs an opponent off a double-digit SU win. Buffalo has serious offensive weaponry with tall/versatile QB Jackson, vertical threat Anthony Johnson, possession receiver Osborn, and hard running RB Patterson. Sure, statistically, BG has a good pass defense; however, that is because teams can easily run on them. BG's run-stop-unit is allowing 6 YPC! We'll look for a heavy dose of RB Patterson to set up a big scoring fest. We'll look for a usually solid Bulls' defense to tighten up and unleash on BG QB Doege. He's pretty good but his offensive line has issues protecting him and Buffalo should get back their defensive mojo here. BG HC Jinks just 2-7 ATS as a conference home dog. Buffalo the call. |
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11-17-18 | Northwestern +3 v. Minnesota | Top | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
11-10-18 | California +4 v. USC | Top | 15-14 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
11-03-18 | Georgia -7.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
Georgia/Kentucky Noon: Good value with the Bulldogs equipped to deliver another knockout here. Last year, a 41-13 thrashing. Sure, Georgia graduated many of those players but reloaded with another top 3 FBS class. Kentucky does possess the top scoring defense in the nation but this will be their biggest test with a well balanced run game, a veteran QB Fromm and some top flight receivers. On the other hand, Kentucky relies on jump starting their offense with the power ground game led by Snell. Georgia's rock solid defense is wired to stop this team and surely QB Terry Wilson won't pick the ball hawking Bulldogs' secondary apart. Georgia is a sweet 15-0 ATS off a double-digit SU win vs a conference opponent off a SU dog win. Georgia cruises. |
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10-27-18 | Arizona State v. USC -3 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
10-20-18 | NC State +17.5 v. Clemson | Top | 7-41 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
NC State/Clemson 3:30: NC State has played a light schedule but odds makers over adjusted with the generous amount of points. Clemson has been over valued much of the year as their 2-4 ATS mark illustrates. And the Tigers haven't exactly faced a murderer's row of opponents either - Furman, GA Southern, as well as struggling conference foes G Tech and Wake Forest. And the blowout of WF surely lends value. NC State has covered 6 of the last 8 in this series and won't go into Death Valley intimidated. NC State has an efficient offense run by ACC's top passer Finley (335 YPG). And he's only been sacked twice this year. He's got a good arsenal of weaponry including WR Harmon. Moreover, like the NC State defense which allows just 16.8 PPG. Wolfpack HC Doeren an outstanding 36-6 SU when his team outgains opponent. And throw in that the Wolfpack is 12-0 ATS as a conference dog with rest and we have ourselves a Top Play. |
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10-13-18 | Colorado +7 v. USC | Top | 20-31 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
Colorado/USC 10:30: Like the chances of the vengeful Buffaloes. Colorado has been competitive in this series at 3-1-1 ATS yet hasn't beaten them in over a decade. Colorado is a sweet 7-0 ATS on the road with revenge. USC, however, is a poor 2-12 ATS vs conference opponents with revenge off back-to-back SU/ATS wins. USC defense a shell of what it used to be and accurate QB Montez (75% completions with 14 TD/2 INT) can keep the Buffaloes in this one. Colorado sports a solid veteran defense that allows just 18.4 PPG. Not a fan of the inconsistent USC offensive line. We'll look for them to keep QB J.T. Daniels and company at bay. |
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10-06-18 | Northwestern +10 v. Michigan State | Top | 29-19 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Northwestern/Michigan State Noon: Rough three game skid for Northwestern; however, competitive all season including last week vs Michigan when their offense shut down in the second half. Look for Fitzgerald's boys to step up their game here. NW is 12-5 ATS after accumulating less than 275 years the previous week. And NW has covered 4 straight on the Big Ten road and an amazing 7 straight at East Lansing. I like NW's LBs Fisher and Gallagher. And their defensive line led by Joe Gaziano and Jordan Thompson should be disruptive to the Spartan's offensive line which has struggled all season. Northwestern the call. |
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09-29-18 | Utah v. Washington State +1.5 | Top | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
Utah/Washington State 6:00: Like getting points with a Washington State team that's been hot at home (7-0 ATS) and in September (7-0 ATS). Cougars have an outstanding QB in Minshew II (71% completions / 11 TD/ 3 INT). He torched the USC defense last week and should find ways in moving the football against Utah's defense. Sure, Utah has the nation's #1 ranked defense; however, that rank is somewhat misleading with N. Illinois and Weber State on schedule in two of three of their games. The problem with Utah is their offense in which fumbled seven times and two interceptions. Washington State's defense is ball hawking and should be on their game at home. Furthermore, Leach has had Whittingham's number as Washington State sports a 3-0 ATS mark in this series. Cougars deliver. |
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09-08-18 | Penn State v. Pittsburgh +7.5 | Top | 51-6 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
Penn State/Pittsburgh 8:00: Narduzzi has stepped up in big games as demonstrated in 2016 knocking off Clemson and last year whipping Miami-Fla. The Panthers are out for revenge from last year's 33-14 loss at Happy Valley.Panthers covered that and are 5-0-1 ATS vs Penn State. Keep in mind the significant losses of Penn State on defense. And the graduation losses were apparent last week in giving up 451 yards to Appalachian State. It won't get easier tonight against a Pittsburgh team that can run the football. And defensive minded Narduzzi finally has a veteran defensive unit that can be molded into those Michigan State teams in which he DC'd a few years back. Pittsburgh the call. |
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09-08-18 | Iowa State +3.5 v. Iowa | Top | 3-13 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
Iowa State/Iowa 5:00: I like where Iowa State is heading with Matt Campbell. They're coming off a fantastic year in which they went 10-2 ATS including outright wins against TCU and at Oklahoma. The Cyclones have reloaded with a majority of the well disciplined offense that lost a fumble only one time! And QB Kempt, who has explosive target Butler back, completed 66% of his passes with 130 straight completions without an interception. And I like Iowa State's defense which gets to the QB and has a ball hawking secondary. Hawkeyes, however, may be in declining stage with graduation losses to key players on both sides of the ball. Iowa State is hungry and loaded for revenge from last year's 44-41 OT thriller. Iowa State is 8-2 ATS at Kinnick Stadium and I'm rolling with the Cyclones. |
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09-02-18 | Miami-FL -3.5 v. LSU | Top | 17-33 | Loss | -102 | 65 h 24 m | Show |
Miami-Fla/LSU 7:30: Sure, LSU has a great history on this field (AT&T Stadium in Arlington), but not buying into Ed Orgeron who's flopped vs quality opposition. He's a meager 5-20 SU vs SEC foes as a head coach. He has another new OC in retread Ensminger. And his DC Aranda is a middle of the road, at best, running a defense. Ensminger has to groom another new starting QB - Joe Burrow - an Ohio State transfer. And it appears to be a wide open pass oriented offense. That spells trouble vs the ball hawking Hurricanes' secondary with S Jaquan Johnson. Offensively, Miami-Fla duel threat QB Rosier equipped with a bucket load of quality athletes including RB Homer, should carve up the LSU defense. LSU has lost 14 returning starters and a host of players with extensive field time. LSU 1-4 vs the ACC and should see more trouble here. |
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09-01-18 | Michigan +1.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 25 m | Show |
 Michigan/Notre Dame 7:30: These teams last met on this field in 2014 in the Brady Hoke era. ND crushed them 31-0. Now that Harbaugh has taken over the reigns, this storied rivalry renews Saturday. Like the Wolves here after an underachieving 2017. Harbaugh is loaded on defense with 10 returning starters on a unit that ranked 13th in the nation in scoring defense last year. And Harbaugh has finally found the missing piece that has kept him from making a run to the Final Four. He landed Ole Miss transfer Shea Patterson who is equipped with a solid supporting cast. I do realize Michigan won't have #1 receiver Tarik Black (foot), but Peoples-Jones and Oliver Martin can pick up the slack. And remember, Big Blue should have the smash mouth run game back with a solid O-Line and two downhill runners in Higdon (good to go) and Evans. Concerned about top DE Gary though. Nevertheless, Michigan should give ND QB Wimbush fits. He's not the greatest passer and graduation has hit ND on the offense with four off to the NFL including two on the left side of the offensive line. And five senior starters from the defense graduated. Feel good getting a point as the dog in this series is 11-5; moreover, Harbaugh 9-0 SU in non-conference regular season. Wolves ready to make a run this year! |
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01-01-18 | Alabama v. Clemson +3 | Top | 24-6 | Loss | -115 | 485 h 56 m | Show |
Alabama/Clemson 8:45: Have a problem with this line for the Tigers are the #1 seed and getting points. I'll gladly take the Tigers and 3 points with the dangerous bowl dog HC Swinney. Dabo Swinney is a sweet 5-0 ATS when getting points in bowl games. And we know what happened the last two vs Alabama. Clemson can match defensive greatness with arguably the best defensive front in the nation. And QB Kelly Bryant is more accurate and every bit as fleet footed as counterpart Jalen Hurts. Bryant has a strong supporting cast of skill players and lineman to penetrate the Alabama defense that does have its weaknesses in the secondary. We'll look for the Tide to drop to 0-5 ATS in January. Clemson the call. |
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12-30-17 | Iowa State +4 v. Memphis | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Iowa State/Memphis 12:30: Like the toughness Iowa State exhibits. Defensively, they give up yards but limit explosive plays and tighten the bolts in the red zone. They allowed a very respectable 21 PPG (29th in FBS) considering they've faced some of the most explosive offenses in the NCAA, including beating Oklahoma outright in Norman, throttling Texas Tech, beating TCU while holding them to just 7 points. Sure, Memphis sports one the top offenses in the nation but will be without their OC Dickey who is off to TX A&M in the same role; remember, we found out with Missouri on how an offensive coordinator's departure can ruin offensive chemistry. We'll look for Iowa State's efficient offense, with NO FUMBLES on the season, can move the ball with 1000+ yard rusher David Montgomery (probable) against the sieve-like Memphis defense (120th in nation). Iowa State should be able to eat clock and gain yards while keeping QB Riley Ferguson on the sidelines. And Cyclones' QB Kyle Kent is no scrub. He's got NFL prospect Allen Lazard as a great vertical threat. Iowa State the call. |
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12-29-17 | USC +8.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 7-24 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
12-28-17 | Stanford +3 v. TCU | Top | 37-39 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
Stanford/TCU 9:00: Respect TCU's Patterson and his rock solid run stop unit but going with the Cardinal. TCU just 2-6 ATS in bowls and 2-9 ATS on neutral fields. On the other hand, Shaw's bunch is 4-0 ATS vs the Big 12, 6-2 ATS in bowls and 5-1 ATS on neutral fields. I realize the Cardinal struggled early in the year but Stanford got their offense rolling when QB Costello (11/3 TD/INT) took over. He's got a sure handed target in Arcego-Whiteside. And let's not forget about the major offensive fuel behind Stanford's offense - RB Bryce Love (8.3 YPC) ran for record numbers on a sprained ankle late in the year. Love's ankle feels great and surely TCU's run-stop-unit will be sorely tested against a veteran offensive line. TCU's offense is potent too but not a fan of QB Kenny Hill in big games. He's facing a Stanford defense that got better as the season progressed. Stanford sports a +15 turnover margin (#2 in nation) and should make fewer mistakes than TCU tonight. Stanford the call. |
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12-02-17 | Miami-FL v. CLEMSON -9.5 | Top | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 16 h 29 m | Show |
11-25-17 | Alabama v. Auburn +5.5 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
11-24-17 | South Florida v. Central Florida -9.5 | Top | 42-49 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
USF/UCF 3:30: Both of these teams have taken on a relatively light schedule but believe UCF is more equipped to deliver. USF has been a prohibitive favorite in every game this season and will get rocked here. UCF is well balanced with few weaknesses. The 'Knights are tied for the #1 turnover margin in the nation equipped with a ball hawking secondary led by Gibson and Hughes who have combined for seven interceptions. And of course, their defensive front plays a big role getting after the passer. USF' O-line has shielded QB Flowers quite well this season allowing just 14 sacks but will face his toughest test today vs a fast and powerful UCF front seven. Offensively, the Golden Nights boast the #1 scoring offense in the nation led by QB Milton who has a veteran line and great skill supporting cast. UCF HC Frost ran the Oregon high flying offense under Chip Kelly and runs a similar offensive machine here. We'll look for a little extra today after bitter taste in mouth remains from last year's 48-31 loss when then coach - Taggart elected to score a touchdown with 11 seconds left with the game in hand. UCF the call. |
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11-18-17 | Fresno State v. Wyoming +2.5 | Top | 13-7 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
11-18-17 | Michigan +7.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
Michigan/Wisconsin Noon: Now that Harbaugh has settled in on Brandon Peters as the QB, the Wolves are not turning the football over and keeping coach happy while pounding the ball with RB Chris Evans. Wisconsin's QB Hornibrook, on the other hand, has an interception problem - getting picked in every conference game this season. That does not bode well against Don Brown's well disciplined defense. Michigan plays into Wisky's strength - the run game and I'm going to bet the Wolves don't get gashed like the other Badgers' opponents. Wisconsin's played a relative soft schedule and will get tested here. Michigan's held 7 of their last 10 opponents to 14 points or less. We'll roll with Big Blue here knowing they're 5-1 ATS in the second of back to back road games, and 6-1 ATS as dogs off a double digit ATS win. We'll gladly take a touchdown and hook as our top play! |
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11-11-17 | Michigan State +17 v. Ohio State | Top | 3-48 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
Michigan State/Ohio State Noon: Value with the Spartans which have covered four straight in Columbus; as a matter of fact, the visitor in this series during the regular season has not only covered but won SU six straight times! Sure, OSU is fired up off one of the biggest losses in the Urban Meyer era; however, Michigan State clearly no pushover with the 12th ranked defense (total yards) in the NCAA and they play well against OSU's strength - the run. JT Barrett and Dobbins are a formidable force on the ground but the Spartans are 3rd in the nation against the run and have a disciplined secondary; moreover, like the QB play of the Spartans' QB Lewerke who has passed for +400 yards in two straight games including last week against Penn State. And Michigan State grinds out 157 YPG on the ground. They'll clearly make it difficult for the Buckeyes. Buckeyes a troublesome 1-7 ATS after allow more than 35 points. Michigan State the call. |
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11-04-17 | Virginia Tech +3 v. Miami-FL | Top | 10-28 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
11-04-17 | Clemson -8 v. NC State | Top | 38-31 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 13 m | Show |
10-21-17 | Louisville v. Florida State -6 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
Louisville/Florida State Noon: Big revenge game for the Seminoles who were embarrassed at Louisville last year 63-20. This year, Florida State defense much healthier including the return of safety Derwin James who missed last year's game. Fla State offense reading pedestrian in the stats; however, a closer look reveals an increased run game over the last few weeks with breakout performances from RBs Akers and Patrick; consequently, that's taking pressure off QB Blackman who struggles at times but makes big plays and growing every week. I'm looking for Jimbo Fisher to dial up a nice plan of attack against a Louisville run defense that's gotten gashed in recent weeks including allowing BC 364 yards! Louisville is on a 3-13 ATS slide overall and 0-6 ATS in conference games after allowing 35+ points. Florida State delivers. |
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10-14-17 | Oklahoma v. Texas +9.5 | Top | 29-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
Oklahoma/Texas 3:30: Revenge game for Texas and we'll side with Tom Herman who has the Longhorns heading in the right direction. Texas has covered 4 straight after their disastrous season opening loss at home to Maryland. Longhorns' Freshman QB Ehlinger getting it done and gaining confidence in the process; moreover, he gets back starting center Shackelford. As for OU, injuries are popping up: safety Parker, RB Adams, WR Lamb, G Samia, DL Lampkin. I do realize QB Mayfield is a winner but questioning new leadership of sooners under Lincoln Riley. Too many points to give to a hungry and vengeful Longhorns team that's gone 4-1-1 ATS at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas in this series. Texas the call. Â |
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10-07-17 | Miami-FL -2.5 v. Florida State | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
Mia Fla/Florida State 3:30: Jimbo Fisher has owned Mia Fla since he's been head coach. Fla State is 7-0 SU in this series but it should definitely end today; after all, the Seminoles have been hanging on after QB Francois got injured against Alabama. Blackman, his replacement, has been spotty at best. He did make a big play last week at WF to survive; however, those occasional big plays won't be enough against this Mia-Fla team. The 'Canes are officially back under Richt and dangerous on both sides of the ball. Mia-Fla's QB Rosier has a boat load of weapons including RB Walton (ankle) who is above average even with a sprained ankle. Canes are pounding out nearly 200 yards of offense more than the Seminoles. And the Hurricanes' defense is allowing just 16.3 PPG with an opportunistic ball hawking secondary. Canes in a good spot as favorites of more than 2 points in the 2nd of back-to-back road games. Mia-Fla the call. |
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09-30-17 | Memphis v. Central Florida -4.5 | Top | 13-40 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
Memphis/Central Fla 7:00: UCF sports a veteran unit on both sides of the ball that went bowling last year. They're well balanced with a potent offense led by QB McKenzie (67% completions - 5 TD/1 INT). They'll rip through a tattered Memphis defense that has been ravaged by injuries. Already with 3 starters out, their safety Shaun Rupert left the game on crutches last week. And the Tigers are in the lower tier defensively in most categories to begin with. UCF's Scott Frost will most definitely find ways of exploiting the weaknesses. As for Memphis offense, they're explosive; however, the 12th ranked scoring defense of the Knights can hold their own on this field. The host in this series is 5-0 ATS and UCF is poised to deliver. |
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09-23-17 | Cincinnati +11.5 v. Navy | Top | 32-42 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
Cincinnati/Navy 3:30: Value with the good traveling team here as a double digit dog. Navy's offense hasn't shown the dominance it has in the past few years. They're facing a stout defense that went to the Big House in Ann Arbor and held Michigan to a three touchdowns earned. We'll look for the well disciplined Bearcats' defense to play sound assignment football vs the Midshipmen Triple Option. On the other hand, the Bearcats' offense needs work but Navy's defense has areas in the secondary that can be exploited. Bearcats' QB Hayden Moore, who had receivers drop six balls last week, should finally get it together with his skill guys today. Navy just 2-5 ATS off a bye week and 3-7 ATS at home against a team with winning road record. The Bearcats' defense should keep them in this game. |
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09-16-17 | Baylor v. Duke -14 | Top | 20-34 | Push | 0 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
Baylor/Duke 12:30: Trouble brewing for the Bears after losing to two lightweights to open the season. QB change won't help as the Duke defense continues to impress in the Cutcliffe era. And QB Daniel Jones now emerging as a top caliber ACC signal caller. Blue Devils a strong 5-0 ATS as favorites of more than 4 points against less than .500 opposition. Baylor a poor 1-8 ATS as dogs of less than 17 points vs opponent off back-to-back SU/ATS wins. Rhule's new recruits will need time to become battle tested as they take it on the chin again. |
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09-09-17 | East Carolina v. West Virginia -24.5 | Top | 20-56 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
East Carolina/West Virginia Noon: West Virginia, who I faded last week, actually played well on both sides of the ball against V Tech. Defensively, the stats look horrible but the Mounties were strong until cramps and attrition took over. Today, no such luck against the Pirates. Pirates are unsettled at QB and Sirk is no Josh Jackson (V Tech). Turnovers and sluggish play doomed East Carolina last week at home against FCS heavyweight James Madison. WV's DC Tony Gibson should come up with another great scheme to stall out the Pirates' offense... And Scottie Montgomery's defense, which slipped 51 YPG last year, is on its way to getting thrashed for the second week in a row. JM hung 614 yards on them last week and WV is even more potent as West Virginia's QB Will Grier showed he's still got game. Grier and the loaded skill personnel that the Mounties possess should have this one over at half time. Pirates struggling on the road under Montgomery at 0-6 ATS, should continue their slide and fall to 1-6 ATS at Morgantown. |
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09-02-17 | South Carolina v. NC State -5 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
South Carolina/NC State 3:00: Like the Wolfpack's senior laden roster that went 8-4 ATS last year including a 41-17 demolition in their bowl game against Vanderbilt. NC State had a top 10 run stop unit last year and they bring back their entire front 7. Sure, South Carolina's young team was competitive last year and will be better but not at the level of the Wolfpack. South Carolina's offense was 120th in total offense last year and do have 10 returning starters on the offensive end including QB Jake Bentley. The Wolfpack, however, has plenty of firepower of their own including utility star Jaylen Samuels and an experienced offensive line. NC State is a strong 23-3 SU/18-5 ATS when they outgain their opponent under head coach Dave Doeren. NC State's program is further along than Muschamp's Gamecocks. NC State the call. |
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