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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-30-21 | USC v. Gonzaga UNDER 153.5 | Top | 66-85 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
658 USC & Gonzaga Can’t wait for this one as we expect it to be a defensive dog fight. USC ranks 8th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and 7th in defensive effective field goal percentage. This team leads the nation in defending two point baskets at 41.5%. USC is also 231st in pace, so they should be able to slow down the Zags fast break. Both teams are in the top 40 in defensive free throw rate, as neither puts the opponent on the line. Gonzaga is a team that wants to get out and run, ranking 1st in two point field goal percentage. They have yet to face any opponent this season that is anywhere near as strong as the Trojans around the basket. This is just a bad matchup for Gonzaga, but their elite talent will likely have them advance. But we look for a much slower pace than we have seen the Zags play thus far. PLAY UNDER |
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03-28-21 | Oregon v. USC -2 | Top | 68-82 | Win | 100 | 23 h 19 m | Show |
644 Oregon & USC The Ducks looked really good when playing the fast tempo of Iowa, but this game should be played at a much slower pace. Oregon has great athletes that can get out and run with the best of them. But that’s not what USC wants to do. You can see the Ducks problems in the previous 72-58 loss to the Trojans. Oregon couldn’t get to the line and shot just 16 of 40 from two point range. USC leads the country in defending around the basket, and rank 7th in both defensive adjusted efficiency and effective field goal percentage. Give us the Trojans. PLAY USC |
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03-27-21 | Syracuse v. Houston -6.5 | Top | 46-62 | Win | 100 | 27 h 38 m | Show |
648 Syracuse & Houston It’s been another nice run through the tournament for Jim Boeheim and his boys. But we feel this is where it comes to an end. A major reason is the offensive glass dominance of the Cougars. Syracuse ranks 339th in the nation, allowing 34.0% offensive rebounding to the opposition. Houston is the second best in the country with an offensive rebounding percentage of 39.8. The biggest weakness for Houston is allowing the opposition to get to the line, ranking 332nd in the country. But Syracuse isn’t a team that draws fouls ranking 266th offensively. The Orangemen rank out of the top 100 in both three and two point offensive shooting percentage, while Houston against a lesser schedule is 12th and 4th in those categories. Just a terrible matchup for the Orangemen. PLAY HOUSTON |
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03-22-21 | Oklahoma +14.5 v. Gonzaga | 71-87 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 15 m | Show | |
817 Oklahoma & Gonzaga The Sooners enter with a 16-10 record, but the advanced stats say they should have gone 18-8 based on shots taken vs their schedule. Oklahoma has a veteran coach in Lon Kruger that has taken multiple teams to the Big Dance. The Sooners rank 17th in the country in offensive turnover percentage. And 12th in the nation keeping the opposition off the foul line. Gonzaga has only been outplayed twice on the season, and yet remain undefeated. This seems to be a team of destiny if you ask most of the experts. And the Zags haven’t given much reason to doubt them. The pros have been backing them as well as the amateurs. They enter this contest off a 43 point victory in the opening round. But as good as Gonzaga is this season, there is no way they deserve to be favorites of this magnitude. After watching Illinois, Ohio State, Texas and West Virginia go down earlier. How can anyone run out to lay this type of number. PLAY OKLAHOMA |
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03-21-21 | Oral Roberts +9 v. Florida | 81-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
807 Oral Roberts & Florida Paul Mills’ club doesn’t have the impressive record at 17-10, but they are peaking at the right time. Winners of six straight games after knocking off the over seeded Buckeyes. This team played a tough non-conference slate, facing the likes on Big Dance entrants Missouri, Wichita State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Arkansas. Florida comes in at 15-9 but the advanced stats show this to be a 12-12 team based on shot quality metrics. It was very fortunate to get the overtime victory over Virginia Tech. The Gators have dropped three of five heading into this contest, with the wins being the overtime victory over the Hokies and an unimpressive six point win over Vanderbilt. We are fading this overrated Gator bunch. PLAY ORAL ROBERTS |
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03-21-21 | Texas Tech -1 v. Arkansas | Top | 66-68 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
805 Texas Tech & Arkansas This should be one of the best games of the season if you love defense. Although the Red Raiders only have an 18-10 record on the season, all the losses were to Top 32 opposition. Every team Texas Tech lost to is still alive in the final 32, except Texas who beat the Red Raiders by a single point. Arkansas has the gaudy 23-6 record, but the advanced stats show this as more of an 19-10 team. Even in the 85-68 win over Colgate, it took an 11 of 31 two point shooting night from the underdog to get the victory. The Red Raiders have a pedigree in the Big Dance, with one of the best coaches in the country. There is a reason they are favored here. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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03-20-21 | Abilene Christian +8.5 v. Texas | Top | 53-52 | Win | 100 | 24 h 22 m | Show |
789 Abilene Christian & Texas Really like this Wildcats team who held their own at Texas Tech and Arkansas. They lead college hoops in forcing turnovers, and rank 11th in defensive efficiency field goal percentage. This is also a club that ranks 21st in the country in offensive field goal percentage. Texas is a very good team but ranks 291st in the country in letting the opposition get to the line. Entering here off five straight victories, we expect the Longhorns to take this opponent for granted. We’ve already seen Texas no show plenty of times this season. PLAY ABILENE CHRISTIAN |
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03-19-21 | Liberty +7.5 v. Oklahoma State | 60-69 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 16 m | Show | |
747 Liberty & Oklahoma State Liberty is 23-5 on the season, but looking at advanced stats we find this to be more of a 25-3 squad. A terrific shooting team that ranks 11th in three point percentage, 9th in two point percentage and 21st at the free throw line. This is a live dog based on its ability to put the ball in the basket. Oklahoma State finished the season on an eight and two run. But in looking at the advanced stats this was a 20-8 team that only played like a 15-13 squad. The Cowboys were outplayed the final eight games when looking at shot selection and season to date data. A team that has won on national television in exciting finishes. The public loves this overrated squad, and that means we want to fade them. Give us the points with Liberty, or give us death! Well, maybe just give us the points and we will leave it at that. PLAY LIBERTY |
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03-19-21 | Utah State v. Texas Tech -4 | 53-65 | Win | 100 | 21 h 37 m | Show | |
734 Utah State & Texas Tech The Aggies were a surprise entrant into the dance after losing to San Diego State in the Mountain West Tourney. The Only Top 50 opponent they beat all season was taking two games at home over the same Aztecs. On the season they lost to #129 South Dakota State and #164 UNLV. Other than San Diego State the Mountain West hasn’t fared well in the Big Dance. Texas Tech finished the season losing five of eight games. But the losses came against Texas by a point, Oklahoma State in overtime, Kansas and West Virginia. The Red Raiders faced 15 Top 50 teams this season. Coming off a loss to Texas in Tournament Play, in a game the advanced stats showed they should have won, we will back the team from the higher ranked conference. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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03-19-21 | Drexel +23 v. Illinois | 49-78 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
741 Drexel & Illinois The Dragons went 12-7 this season and won the Colonial Tournament. Looking at the advanced stats our numbers show they should have been a 15-5 squad. The best team they played all season was the opener in an 83-74 loss at Pittsburgh. But the reason we prefer Drexel here is more of a fade of Illinois. Illinois is on a 15-1 run and just beat Ohio State in overtime, Iowa, Rutgers, Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin. All teams playing in the Big Dance. This has been a brutal stretch of games for the Illini, and they are fat and happy coming into the tournament. This will be the weakest team they have played since the first two games of the season. Illinois really looked impressive to end the year and everyone who doesn’t usually follow college hoops is in love with this team. This is a major soft spot for Illinois who must quickly recuperate and take on a tougher team on Sunday. Look for the bench to get plenty of playing time for this overpriced favorite. PLAY DREXEL |
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03-18-21 | UCLA +2 v. Michigan State | 86-80 | Win | 100 | 25 h 52 m | Show | |
717 UCLA & Michigan State The Bruins have dropped four straight games heading into this tournament contest. But in looking at the advanced stats the Bruins should have won three of those four games, if they had shot their season averages from those specific points on the floor. Not many have been excited by the PAC 12 this year, which is another reason why UCLA is being discounted here. Michigan State was just 5-10 straight up against teams playing in the Big Dance. Only one of those victories came by more than nine points, and that came all the way back on January 5th against Rutgers at home. The Spartans finished the season winning five of eight games, but the advanced stats say they should have only won twice. Many will remember Michigan State’s success in the tournament, but this is by far the worst Spartan team in recent memory. PLAY UCLA |
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03-17-21 | Western Kentucky +2 v. St. Mary's | 69-67 | Win | 100 | 57 h 33 m | Show | |
707 Western Kentucky & St Marys Prefer the Hilltoppers here who returned five starters for this senior laden team. Western is 20-7 on the season with overtime losses to Charlotte and North Texas. They also lost to quality opponents West Virginia, Louisville, Louisiana Tech and Houston. This is a 21 win team by the advanced metrics. The Hilltoppers are also 9th in the country in free throw percentage which is extremely important in a tightly lined game. St Marys just isn’t the same level as in past seasons. Especially offensively where they rank 328th in the nation in three point shooting percentage. That’s just not like a traditional Randy Bennett coached team. The Gaels have just two wins over top 100 opposition, beating Colorado State and splitting with Pepperdine. Wrong team favored on Wednesday. PLAY WESTERN KENTUCKY |
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03-13-21 | Oregon State v. Colorado -8 | 70-68 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
632 Oregon State & Colorado This is not a good scheduling spot for the Beavers. First off they are playing their third game in three days. After being beaten pretty badly by in-state rival Oregon to end the season. They somehow beat UCLA in overtime to open up the tournament. The advanced stats showed the Bruins to be the more dominant team in that game, so Oregon State was very fortunate. Then last night the Beavers gained revenge on heated rival Oregon. Now they take on a Colorado team that beat them by a combined 33 points in their two losses. Colorado has been tested in their two tourney contests, winning by margins of 2 and 3 points. The spot screams Buffaloes and the line is a bit cheap. PLAY COLORADO |
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03-13-21 | Georgetown +8.5 v. Creighton | 73-48 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
619 Georgetown & Creighton This line suggests that the Hoyas are going to run out of gas playing its fourth game in four days. But Creighton is playing its third game in three games as well. But our estimation Georgetown is being penalized by three points in this line because of the rest or lack of situation. But these are still young kids with a chance to win the tournament championship, so we aren’t concerned to that degree. These two split the season series with the Hoyas winning 86-79 on the road, and losing 63-48 at home. Georgetown was 5-10 on the season at one point and have run off a nice 7-2 record since. As much as we like this Creighton team, this line is simply too high. Give us the upstart Hoyas plus the points. PLAY GEORGETOWN |
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03-13-21 | Morgan State +2.5 v. Norfolk State | 63-71 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 15 m | Show | |
307503 Morgan State & Norfolk State The Bears faced Norfolk State four times this season, losing three of those meetings. But all four games were decided by five points or less. When we look deeper, we find Morgan State actually outplayed the Spartans in three of those games, when looking at the advanced shooting stats. The Spartans have the advantage of being rested in this contest. But keep in mind in the 87-58 win over North Carolina Central in the opening round, the advanced stats show it was the best game of the season for this squad. After a blowout win, with a rest advantage, and playing a team you beat three of four matchups, the Spartans are not only overpriced here, they are fat and happy. Not who we want to put our money on. Give us Morgan State. PLAY MORGAN STATE |
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03-12-21 | Missouri +4.5 v. Arkansas | 64-70 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
831 Missouri & Arkansas The Tigers have fallen on tough times as of late after winning 13 of 16 to start the season. Since then Missouri has gone 3-5 including an overtime loss to Arkansas in mid-February. But a closer looks shows that this team has matched up very well with the Razorbacks. The first meeting was an 81-68 road win that was very impressive. The overtime loss showed Missouri outplayed the opposition when looking at the advanced stats. Arkansas is the hot team right now winning 11 of 12, but this line has been bet up off the opener. We have an overpriced hot favorite against a team that many feel is an afterthought. Yeah, that’s the type of underdog we can play with confidence. PLAY MISSOURI |
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03-12-21 | Oklahoma State v. Baylor -9 | 83-74 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
856 Oklahoma State & Baylor So this is how the Cowboys used to feel like after committing an armed robbery. Our advanced stats show that Oklahoma State should have lost its last six games, yet they have posted a 5-1 record. Wins by 5 in OT, 4 in OT, 4, 5 and 3 points. The only loss was an 11 point defeat to these Baylor Bears. The luck runs out for the Cowboys on Friday as it’s high noon against this superior Bears squad. Baylor hasn’t played exceptionally well as of late, and they clearly took for granted the Kansas State Wildcats last night. But now facing what many would call the hottest team in the country this side of Gonzaga, we expect this team to come out on a mission. After 15 and 11 point victories so far this season, you know Baylor won’t lack in confidence. PLAY BAYLOR |
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03-11-21 | Northern Arizona v. Eastern Washington -14.5 | 60-66 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 26 m | Show | |
722 Northern Arizona & Eastern Washington The Lumberjacks lost to Eastern Washington at home 80-64 in the only regular season meeting. They are coming off their most impressive advanced stats game of the season by beating Portland State yesterday. The reason was 12 of 16 offensively from downtown, while allowing only 6 of 30 from distance. Obviously we would expect some regression in those numbers, especially defensively where the Lumberjacks rank 320th in defending the perimeter. Eastern Washington was expected to win the Big Sky Conference, but started the season 3-6 after a tough non-conference schedule. Since then the Eagles have won 10 of 11. Major class difference here and in all truth Northern Arizona is a bad team. Look for the Eagles to name the score here. PLAY EASTERN WASHINGTON |
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03-11-21 | Morgan State -3 v. Florida A&M | 77-75 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 37 m | Show | |
307305 Morgan State & Florida A&M The Bears enter this game off an 82-75 loss to Delaware State. That came on the heels of a 92-67 win over the same opponent. But looking at the advanced stats in that last contest we see the Bears played the better game. So despite losing three of four heading into this tourney, the advanced shot numbers aren’t concerning. Florida A&M finished the season winning six of nine games. But upon closer inspection every one of those games came against teams ranked 296th and higher. The Rattlers are 1-7 straight up playing teams ranked higher than 296th. Morgan State is currently ranked 222nd. Give us the Bears in this one. PLAY MORGAN STATE |
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03-11-21 | Butler v. Creighton -10 | 56-87 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
698 Butler & Creighton The Bulldogs pulled off the shocker yesterday in overtime, likely knocking Xavier out of an at large bid. But while Butler claimed the victory, the advanced stats show they were extremely fortunate. And that’s the way the season has gone for this 10-14 team, that we have graded more like a six win club. Creighton just faced Butler in the last game of the regular season, and won 93-73 in a game they dominated. We are big fans of this Blue Jays team, a group we feel is a solid long shot candidate to win the big dance. That said, their stock took a hit with losses to Xavier and Villanova the last eight days of the regular season. Look for the better team to name the score here. PLAY CREIGHTON |
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03-11-21 | Seton Hall -1 v. St. John's | 77-69 | Win | 100 | 16 h 52 m | Show | |
695 Seton Hall & St Johns The Pirates enter the tourney having lost four straight and 7 of 11. The last time out Seton Hall lost at St Johns 81-71, in a game the advanced stats say should have gone the other way. They did beat the Johnnies 77-68 previously at home. So despite splitting the two games Seton Hall played the better ball in those two combined meetings. Despite the record differences coming into this contest, we have Seton Hall rated as the slightly better squad. Throw in the quick revenge aspect and the four game losing streak, and the spot screams Pirates. PLAY SETON HALL |
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03-10-21 | California v. Stanford -6.5 | Top | 76-58 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 6 m | Show |
636 California & Stanford The Bears have dropped 11 of 12 heading into the conference tournament. They have already lost twice to Stanford 76-70 and 70-55. In looking at the advanced stats those were two games California really wasn’t overly competitive. Stanford has dropped four straight heading into this tourney, with the last game being the worst advanced stats game of the season. An embarrassing 79-42 loss at USC. The Cardinal is facing a team they are extremely confident against, and they take out a can of whoop ass on the Bears tonight. PLAY STANFORD |
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03-10-21 | UTEP -2.5 v. Florida Atlantic | 70-76 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 28 m | Show | |
645 UTEP & Florida Atlantic The Miners had a four game winning streak stopped at Kansas on Thursday. But no doubt about it UTEP was the better team that day. In they had played anywhere else in the country UTEP would have won that game. It’s a shame certain big school teams get these type of breaks. What we do know is the Miners will come into this game with a load of confidence, and something to prove. Florida Atlantic is also playing good ball as of late, winning four straight. The last two games against Middle Tennessee State was their best back to back advanced stats games of the season. But in our mind they looked so good because of the competition, or lack there of. We will look to fade the overconfident Owls. PLAY UTEP |
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03-10-21 | Nebraska +7.5 v. Penn State | Top | 66-72 | Win | 100 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
639 Nebraska & Penn State The Cornhuskers are 7-19 but our numbers show them with a 9-17 record based on the advanced stats. We backed them last time out against Northwestern and had a nice cover. Are they a good team? No. But it all comes down to value when betting on sports. Penn State is 10-13 and off back to back wins over Minnesota and Maryland. But everyone is beating the Golden Gophers right now, and the Terrapins win wasn’t fully deserved. When looking at the advanced stats and shot selection, Maryland was the much better team. These two have played twice thus far and Penn State has outscored Nebraska 147-145. No way this line should be this high. PLAY NEBRASKA |
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03-10-21 | New Mexico v. Fresno State -7.5 | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 22 h 20 m | Show | |
624 New Mexico & Fresno State The Lobos program has fallen on hard times, with a 6-15 record on the season. The four Division 1 wins came against #195 Rice, #321 Dixie State, #298 San Jose State and #296 Air Force. They lost the second meeting against the later two by 12 and 7 points. Fresno State has an 11-11 record, but in looking at the advanced stats we grade the Bulldogs more as a 13 win team. While Fresno State has dropped two of three entering this contest, the advanced stats had them outplaying the opposition in all three games. That includes Boise State and Utah State to end the season. The Bulldogs are playing its best ball of the year, and should easily dispose of this Lobos squad. PLAY FRESNO STATE |
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03-10-21 | Marquette v. Georgetown +3 | 49-68 | Win | 100 | 18 h 5 m | Show | |
626 Marquette & Georgetown The Golden Eagles are off back to back wins over DePaul and Xavier, along with winning four of five overall. They beat Georgetown 64-60 in the only meeting, but the advanced shooting stats say the Hoyas were clearly the better team. Georgetown is a 9-12 team but our ratings have them more like an 11-10 team based on its schedule. The Hoyas are coming in off its worst advanced stats performance of the season, a 98-82 loss at Connecticut. Our numbers have this game as a toss up, so we will gladly take the underdog Hoyas in this matchup. PLAY GEORGETOWN |
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03-09-21 | Oakland +2.5 v. Cleveland State | 69-80 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
823 Oakland & Cleveland State Somewhat surprised that Oakland is the underdog here based on recent play. The Golden Grizzlies only have a 12-17 record, but played a brutal non-conference slate. Games against Xavier, Toledo, Michigan, Purdue, Oklahoma State and Michigan State primed Greg Kampe’s team for this type of situation. We have this team ranked more as a 14 win team than the 12 win team that they are. Cleveland State on the other hand are 18-7 on the season, but are rated more like a 15 win team. Even last time out against Milwaukee they were very fortunate to grab the 71-65 victory. They outshot the Panthers from distance 8 of 17 to 3 of 17. Considering the Vikings rank 241st in the country in three point accuracy, we can’t expect them to repeat that performance. Wrong team favored here. PLAY OAKLAND |
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03-09-21 | Iona v. Quinnipiac +6 | Top | 72-48 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
814 Iona & Quinnipiac The Gaels ended the season in fine fashion sweeping Monmouth. They come in to this tourney after posting an 8-5 record on the regular season. The Bobcats beat Iona 74-70 in their only meeting, and we see no reason why they can’t do it again. Despite the 9-12 regular season record, the advanced shooting stats say this is a 13 win team. Quinnipiac deserved a better record based on shot selection for themselves and their opponents. They enter this contest off a 66-64 loss to St Peter’s, a game they outplayed the Peacocks. This line is too high as we have these two much closer in talent. PLAY QUINNIPIAC |
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03-08-21 | Northern Kentucky v. Oakland +1.5 | Top | 58-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
786 Northern Kentucky & Oakland The Norse have been very fortunate to have the 14-10 record they do. When factoring shot selection and advanced stats this team plays more like a 10 or 11 win team. Tuesday Northern Kentucky knocked off Detroit 70-69, but the game could have and probably should have turned out differently. They had a 42.4 offensive rebounding percentage, the fourth best of the season. They held Detroit to a second best 14.3 free throw rate. You have to tip your cap to the Golden Grizzlies who started the year playing Xavier, Toledo, Michigan, Purdue, Oklahoma State and Michigan State. This is not a team that will be intimidated by these surroundings. The advanced stats see this as a 14 win team, not the 11 win club that the current record shows. Oakland has a recent 7-2 record when playing teams ranked 200th and higher. The two losses were in double overtime. We have Northern Kentucky currently ranked 206th. PLAY OAKLAND |
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03-08-21 | Rider +6.5 v. Canisius | 78-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
791 Rider & Canisius The Broncos enter this contest with a 5-16 record on the season. An afterthought in many minds. But when we break this team down by the advanced stats we feel this is one of the most underrated teams in the country. Our numbers show this team plays more like an eight win club, that should be riding a three game winning streak into this contest. Off back to back losses to Monmouth, in which Rider deserved to win both. Canisius was limited to playing just 12 games in the regular season, posting a 7-5 mark. But our advanced numbers show them as more like a four win team. The Golden Griffins rank 297th in offensive effective field goal percentage, and 324th in three point shooting. No way this team should be favored by this number. PLAY RIDER |
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03-08-21 | Elon v. Hofstra -5 | 76-58 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
780 Elon & Hofstra The Phoenix knocked off James Madison yesterday, but the advanced stats say they didn’t deserve the win. Elon was just 8 of 25 from two point range. The Pride are the much better team although end of season records wouldn’t agree. Based on the shots taken and the results, Hofstra should have 15 wins, not the 13 they achieved. Thus Pride offense is clearly the better of the two, and the line is right where we can take advantage. PLAY HOFSTRA |
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03-07-21 | Nebraska +7 v. Northwestern | Top | 78-79 | Win | 100 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
737 Nebraska at Northwestern It’s been an ugly season for the Cornhuskers, but they had been playing more competitive at least until Thursday. That’s when they suffered their most embarrassing loss of the season, a 102-64 defeat at Iowa. Northwestern had lost 13 straight games before knocking off Minnesota and Maryland. But the advanced stats show the Wildcats should have lost to Minnesota. Sure the Wildcats have three more wins on the season, but is this line really indicative of the talent on these two teams. We don’t think so, give us the Huskers off an embarrassing loss. PLAY NEBRASKA |
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03-06-21 | Butler v. Creighton -12.5 | Top | 73-93 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
644 Butler at Creighton Butler survived the earlier home meeting 70-66 in overtime. But were a bit lucky to do so when checking out the advanced stats. Creighton has dropped two straight including a 72-60 loss at Villanova on Wednesday. Looking at the advanced stats in that game we see it was by far the worst performance for the Blue Jays this season. We expect a big rebound from Creighton in this one, as they can’t afford another loss to a middling team. Especially considering their Big Dance seed. PLAY CREIGHTON |
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03-06-21 | USC v. UCLA +1.5 | 64-63 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show | |
638 USC at UCLA The Trojans beat the Bruins 66-48 at home. In that game they held the opposition to 3 of 19 from distance. USC also held the Bruins to a defensive season low in free throw percentage. USC is off its most impressive performance of the season in beating Stanford 79-42. UCLA has dropped two straight but should have fared better last time out at Oregon. The Ducks had the hot shooting touch hitting 23 of 34 from two point range and 8 of 17 from distance. We look for UCLA to even up this rivalry game tonight. PLAY UCLA |
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03-06-21 | South Florida +11.5 v. Wichita State | 63-80 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 59 m | Show | |
613 South Florida at Wichita State The Bulls gave Wichita State all they could handle in an 82-77 overtime loss at home. But since the month of February started South Florida has fallen down and haven’t gotten back up. Losses in six of seven games with the last three coming by margins of 21, 46 and 18 points. This is a team that nobody wants right now, which means from a betting standpoint there is value on the Bulls. The Shockers are 14-4 on the season and just faced 11 Top 150 squads. Can’t see them getting up for this game with conference tourney action on deck. It’s time to fade the Shockers. PLAY SOUTH FLORIDA |
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03-05-21 | Idaho State v. Eastern Washington -12 | 62-75 | Win | 100 | 16 h 29 m | Show | |
806 Idaho State at Eastern Washington The Bengals just pulled the upset over the Eagles on Wednesday. Winning 68-63 and holding Eastern Washington to 5 of 22 shooting from deep. Considering Idaho State ranks 320th in the nation in defending the three point line, we won’t expect a repeat. The loss for the Eagles broke a nine game winning streak. When looking at advanced stats our numbers show value on the favorite here, as this team has played better than its 12-7 record. Eastern Washington also played quality non-conference opposition in Washington State, Arizona and Oregon. Coming just short of beating the Wildcats in Arizona. Let’s lay it as we catch the better team in revenge. PLAY EASTERN WASHINGTON |
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03-05-21 | Evansville v. Indiana State -5.5 | 43-53 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
870 Evansville at Indiana State The Purple Aces have had a pretty good season considering they were projected at the bottom of the Missouri Valley Conference. Evansville ended the regular season with its second most successful game of the season when looking at the advanced stats. That victory broke a seven game losing streak. It’s been said that it’s tough to beat a team three times in a row in the same season. But that thought process has been debunked. The Sycamores beat Evansville 87-73 and 76-70 in mid-February. Coming off its second worst game of the season when looking at the advanced stats, we look for the 3-0 sweep. PLAY INDIANA STATE |
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03-04-21 | Austin Peay +2.5 v. Eastern Kentucky | 67-70 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
773 Austin Peay & Eastern Kentucky The scores say that the Governors have dropped four of five to end the season, and that is true. But the only game they were actually outplayed when looking at the advanced stats was last time out in a 75-67 loss to Jacksonville State. Austin Peay is only 10-10 in conference, but this team has the ability to win this tournament. Picked third before the season the Governors have the talent to make the Big Dance. They split the season series with Eastern Kentucky, outscoring them by 10 points. The Colonels have an outstanding 21-6 record. But the advanced stats show they were very fortunate. In every one of the six losses they were uncompetitive, in looking at the advanced stats. This team can be beat and we think their season ends tonight. PLAY AUSTIN PEAY |
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03-04-21 | Murray State -2 v. Jacksonville State | 65-68 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
771 Murray State & Jacksonville State The Racers enter tournament play off back to back losses to Tennessee Tech and this Jacksonville State team. The Gamecocks were hot from the field in that contest hitting 19 of 33 from two point range and 13 of 24 from downtown. The long distance success wasn’t normal for this Murray State defense which ranks 99th in defending the three. They say beating a team three straight times in a season is tough, but that’s been proven to be a falsehood. And that’s what the Gamecocks are looking to do tonight. But our numbers show Murray State is the better team here. Looking at the advanced stats we find the Racers deserved a three game better record on the season, than the 13-12 record they bring into this game. We are backing an underrated squad here and the early money seems to agree. PLAY MURRAY STATE |
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03-04-21 | St. Joe's v. Massachusetts -3 | 66-100 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show | |
762 St Josephs & Massachusetts The Hawks knocked off La Salle yesterday 72-66 to advance to this round. They are riding a four game winning streak heading into this contest. Considering this team only has five wins on the entire season, that’s really saying something. But to its credit coming out of COVID this team has made the most of it. UMass is 7-6 on the season and 6-4 in Atlantic 10 play. The Minutemen ended the regular season off back to back losses to Richmond and St Louis. We look for a nice bounce back here from Massachusetts, the better and rested team. PLAY MASSACHUSETTS |
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03-03-21 | Stanford +7.5 v. USC | Top | 42-79 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
699 Stanford at USC The Tree had little problem scoring on this USC defense in the last meeting. Making 20 of 36 from two point range, and 7 of 16 from distance. It was a very poor 15.8 free throw rate that cost Stanford the game. Coming off two straight games against Oregon where the Cardinal really struggled to get to the line, we expect a squad on a mission tonight. USC has lost three of four with the lone win coming at home against Oregon. The Trojans were really pumped for that game because of how hot the Ducks have been this season. Despite back to back losses, we can’t see USC being overly motivated to run the score up here. Not with UCLA, their big rival on deck. This is also senior night and USC has three players to honor. We like to fade teams in this situation, as it takes the players away from their normal routine. PLAY STANFORD |
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03-03-21 | Providence v. St. John's -1 | 67-81 | Win | 100 | 25 h 56 m | Show | |
676 Providence at St Johns The Friars are off an impressive victory over Xavier on Wednesday. Shooting 11 of 21 from distance and allowing just 3 of 17 from the three point line. The advanced stats say it was the third best game this season for Providence. So what happened directly following the prior two best outings? A 21 point loss to Indiana, and a home loss to Creighton. St Johns has dropped three of four including a 23 point loss at Villanova. The advanced stats have that rated as the worst performance of the season for the Johnnies. The previous worst was an 18 point loss at Creighton. They followed that up with a 12 point victory over Butler. Look for St Johns to get right tonight hosting the Friars. PLAY ST JOHNS |
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03-02-21 | Fresno State +13.5 v. Boise State | 67-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
633 Fresno State at Boise State The Bulldogs lost in this building earlier 73-51. They were held to a season low offensive effective field goal percentage in that contest. Coming off a game they lost but outplayed UNLV, this should be a fired up team. Most will look for a big performance out of the Broncos here, off back to back losses at San Diego State. But keep in mind that this is senior day, and the team will honor two key departing players in Derrick Alston Jr and Abu Kigab. With the pregame hoopla we like to fade the host because it takes them out of their normal routines. Also the conference tourney is on deck and another chance for Boise State to meet the Aztecs. PLAY FRESNO STATE |
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03-02-21 | Wake Forest v. Pittsburgh -6.5 | Top | 57-70 | Win | 100 | 22 h 41 m | Show |
610 Wake Forest at Pittsburgh Wake has dropped 13 of 16 in conference action this season. One of the three victories came against this Pittsburgh squad. In that game the Demon Deacons shot 15 of 32 from distance, and had a 59.8 effective field goal percentage. Pittsburgh has dropped eight of nine, including five straight. But every one of those five losses were by seven points or less. With a trip to Clemson to end the regular season, the Panthers need this victory to gain double digit victories. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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03-01-21 | Oklahoma +1 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 75-79 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
845 Oklahoma at Oklahoma State Quick home and home revenge game for the Sooners, who just lost at home to the Cowboys 94-90 in overtime. It’s just the second home loss of the season for the Sooners. In that game Oklahoma was held to a season low offensive rebounding percentage. State has now won four straight games heading into this rematch. But the advanced stats say this team was fortunate to win the last two contests, both overtime victories. We love Lon Kruger as a coach and expect his team to have an additional spark here. The Sooners have dropped two straight and have Texas on deck. This is a must win for the visitor. PLAY OKLAHOMA |
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02-27-21 | Rhode Island +1 v. Duquesne | 75-86 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 20 m | Show | |
729 Rhode Island at Duquesne The Rams had won 21 or more games in three of the past four seasons. They enter play on Saturday 10-13. This is a team that gets to the foul line offensively, and plays good quality defense. The problem has been 3 point shooting, ranking 273rd in the country. In the prior meeting, a 71-69 road loss, the Rams shot 4 of 20 from distance while allowing 8 of 18. That in itself was the reason why Rhode Island tasted defeat. Duquesne has been in a terrible shooting slump from deep. Over the last six games the Dukes have made 39 of 142, less than 25% from distance. Look for the Rams to get the victory here as the Dukes continue to struggle from three point range. PLAY RHODE ISLAND |
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02-27-21 | Furman -1.5 v. Wofford | Top | 73-74 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
735 Furman at Wofford The Paladins have won four straight and haven’t played a bad game since the 81-71 loss to Winthrop in mid-December. But there is one game i’m sure they have circled, tonight’s matchup with Wofford. You see the Terriers are the only team to beat Furman in Timmons Arena this year. In that game the Paladins had a season low free throw rate as the team just didn’t push the action. Wofford is coming off its best game of the season blowing out Western Carolina 80-56. You couldn’t ask for a better spot for the visitor. PLAY FURMAN |
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02-27-21 | SE Missouri State v. SIU-Edwardsville +2.5 | 69-63 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 25 m | Show | |
712 SE Missouri State at SIU Edwardsville The Redhawks have won three of four but we prefer SE Missouri State when playing in the Show Me Center. When taking to the road this team is just 3-9 SU on the season. This club has been outplayed when looking at advanced stats in 11 of 13 games. On Thursday they shot 12 of 25 from distance to win at Eastern Illinois. Edwardsville had lost five straight before a home win over Tennessee Martin on Thursday. With a 9-15 record on the season the Cougars can reach double digit wins for only the second time in the past six seasons. They played the Redhawks within two points on the road earlier, we expect the host to meet their double digit goal on Saturday. PLAY SIUE |
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02-27-21 | TCU v. Iowa State | 76-72 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 23 m | Show | |
714 TCU at Iowa State The Horned Frogs got off to a great start in non-conference action, but it hasn’t been nearly as easy once Big 12 action started. Now 7-2 out of conference but only 4-8 in conference. One of those victories was a 79-76 home win over these Cyclones. Iowa State is the best 2-17 team we’ve seen in years. The Cyclones have dropped 13 straight games. But when looking at advanced stats this team should much more competitive. They are winless on the season when taking to the road. So trips to Texas Tech and Kansas State are likely to result in losses. Iowa State also hosts Texas on Tuesday, which means this is likely the best chance to win again this season. They deserved better than a defeat in the prior matchup, they get the win here. PLAY IOWA STATE |
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02-27-21 | Austin Peay +4 v. Jacksonville State | 67-75 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 28 m | Show | |
691 Austin Peay at Jacksonville State The Governors were highly touted coming into the season. Being ranked up there with Belmont and Murray State. While the 14-11 record as fine, it’s not nearly what Matt Figger and his club expected. This is a team coming off 21 and 22 win seasons. After losing back to back games to Tennessee Tech and Eastern Ilinois, the Governors need a victory here to finish the regular season with a winning record. While the record is a bit disappointing, the advanced stats say this team is extremely underrated. Jacksonville State has won six of seven lately, losing only to Belmont. But we have these two clubs rated much closer than others. After dropping a 76-70 game at home, we expect the visitor to win this one outright. PLAY AUSTIN PEAY |
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02-27-21 | Marquette +7 v. Connecticut | 62-80 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 60 m | Show | |
645 Marquette at Connecticut The Golden Eagles are off a confident building added game victory at fabled North Carolina. That came on the heels of a 16 point victory at Butler. Those games look to be a buy sign for Marquette who had really struggled over the previous three weeks. The Golden Eagles were beaten at home 65-54 at the hands of these Huskies in early January. In that game UConn hit 8 of 16 from long distance, and had 44.1% offensive rebounding success. The Huskies have Seton Hall home revenge on deck, and are only 3-3 SU in Gampel Pavilion this year. Simply can’t trust this team to lay points right now in this building. PLAY MARQUETTE |
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02-26-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Troy State +5 | 75-59 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
848 Coastal Carolina at Troy The Chanticleers swept Troy at home 90-81 and 70-65 in late January. But it took 20 of 43 shooting from deep to do so. This team has just one loss all season in the HTC Center, but is only 1-5 all year when taking to the road. Troy is riding a five game losing streak into this contest. But are 7-2 SU at the Trojan Arena this season. Huge home/road dichotomy for these two teams. Look for the host to come out with extra special motivation here. PLAY TROY |
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02-26-21 | Southern Utah v. Northern Arizona +8 | Top | 92-62 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
836 Southern Utah at Northern Arizona The Thunderbirds just beat the Lumberjacks 85-80 on Wednesday. Having now won six straight and 16 of 19 on the season, what is their motivation to run up a score here? Especially with a pretty good Portland State two game trip on deck. This is the final regular season game for the Lumberjacks. We don’t have to worry about any senior night distractions, as this team doesn’t have anyone graduating. Off three straight losses, including two uncompetitive games, you have to think you get a full effort from the host here. Much better spot play for the Lumberjacks. PLAY NORTHERN ARIZONA |
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02-26-21 | Appalachian State v. Georgia Southern -1.5 | 84-78 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
830 Appalachian State at Georgia Southern App State has fallen on hard times as of late, dropping five straight heading into this contest. But we could see it coming as two of the three prior wins were more luck that skill. In fact, the Mountaineers have only played one good game since the last time these two tangled on January 9th. And despite sweeping the Eagles in those two games, the advanced stats show Georgia Southern to have played the better games. The Eagles shot a combined 33 of 54 in those games from two point territory and still found a way to lose. Since January 2nd the Eagles are just 6-7, but the advanced stats show a better 10-3 deserved record. Off back to back losses to Coastal Carolina and Georgia State, we look for the host to get its revenge. PLAY GEORGIA SOUTHERN |
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02-26-21 | Tulane +6 v. Cincinnati | 71-91 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 5 m | Show | |
817 Tulane at Cincinnati The Green Wave have struggled in conference action, posting a 4-10 mark. But five of those defeats came by single digits, including a 64-61 home loss to these Bearcats. In that game Tulane shot just 3 of 12 from distance. That has been a problem all season, shooting from the field. Tulane ranks 49th in the country in free throw shooting, but put a hand in their face and suddenly they struggle. But that’s not what we want from this club. What we are looking for is defense, and Tulane is 52nd in the nation in defensive adjusted efficiency. They force turnovers at the 15h best rate in college basketball. That defense is enough to keep the Green Wave in this till the final buzzer. Cincinnati is having a down season, but have won five of six entering this contest. But those wins have come by margins of 3, 3, 2, 1 and 1 points. All less than what this current line is. The high offensive output in those games was 71 points. The Bearcats just don’t score enough points to be trusted in this price range. PLAY TULANE |
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02-25-21 | Washington State +9 v. Arizona | 53-69 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 55 m | Show | |
787 Washington State at Arizona The Cougars are playing their best ball of the season winning five of seven, including an 85-76 triple overtime victory over Stanford on Saturday. A main reason for their success as of late is keeping the opposition off the offensive glass. Washington State has now broken into the Top 100 in that defensive category, a huge improvement as the season has gone on. That puts them in the Top 90 in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. That along with an offensive free throw rate of 68th, prove this team is really playing good hard basketball for Kyle Smith and his crew. Arizona is 15-8 on the season, but the Wildcats have dropped four of six as of late. They beat Washington State 86-82 in double overtime in early January. Simply don’t trust them here laying this type of number. PLAY WASHINGTON STATE |
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02-25-21 | Oregon State v. California +1 | 59-57 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 56 m | Show | |
786 Oregon State at California They say beating a team three times in a season is tough. And that’s what the Beavers are looking to do tonight at California. Oregon State won the opening game of the season hosting the Bears 71-63, then again at home 73-64. But now the Beavers have to take to the road, and this team has only one victory on the season away from home. Cal is desperate for a victory having lost 9 of 10, and face Oregon on Saturday. We expect a supreme effort from the host. In the last meeting the Beavers shot the lights out from distance making 9 of 20. These two clubs are not that different from each other to expect a 3-0 sweep, especially with Oregon State’s struggles on the road. Give us the desperate Bears. PLAY CALIFORNIA |
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02-25-21 | San Francisco +11 v. BYU | 73-79 | Win | 100 | 23 h 2 m | Show | |
767 San Francisco at BYU The Dons have dropped four straight games including a 39 point blowout hosting Gonzaga. But despite a current 2-5 recent record, the Dons, based on advanced stats should have gone 5-2. One of the undeserved losses came at the hands of these Cougars. BYU won 72-63 at San Francisco, but it was a terrible offensive rebounding game and free throw rate contest. In fact, the 4.8 free throw rate was the Don’s worst of the season. BYU is a high quality team, no doubt about it. With losses to Gonzaga twice, USC, and Boise State. But the Cougars also lost at Pepperdine, a similarly power rated team as San Francisco. With the Cougars having higher future aspirations, the Don’s should be the more focused squad. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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02-25-21 | Oregon v. Stanford -1 | 71-68 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 60 m | Show | |
772 Oregon at Stanford The Ducks were one of the hottest teams in college basketball heading into Monday’s contest at USC. But they fell behind early and never had a chance in a 72-58 loss. It was the very worst performance on the season for Oregon. So naturally the Ducks should be a popular play on Thursday. But we are looking to fade the hot team off a loss. Stanford is off a triple overtime 85-76 loss to Washington State. A game in which neither team looked interested in grabbing the victory. But the 6.3% offensive rebounding night was a season low for the Cardinal. Low offensive rebounding numbers along with a low free throw rate, show one glaring conclusion. Lack of effort. You can bet Jerod Haase and his staff will be drilling that information into the heads of his players. The last time these two played the Ducks won comfortably 73-56. But the Cardinal were 3 of 18 from distance and had an 8.8 offensive rebounding percentage. Look for the host to play with high intensity here. PLAY STANFORD |
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02-25-21 | Nebraska +17 v. Illinois | 70-86 | Win | 100 | 21 h 6 m | Show | |
747 Nebraska at Illinois Major contrarian play here as nobody will want to fade the Illini after a loss. Nebraska is 1-13 in conference action. With the lone victory coming by a single point at Penn State. But upon closer inspection this team is playing far better than its record suggests. Even in the previous meeting, a 77-72 overtime loss, the Huskers were every bit as good as Illinois. The Illini just lost at previously dead Michigan State on Tuesday. With Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio State to end the conference season, many will expect a blowout here. We disagree as we fade the obvious play here and take the points. PLAY NEBRASKA |
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02-24-21 | McNeese State +4 v. Southeastern Louisiana | Top | 96-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
307323 McNeese State at SE Louisiana The Cowboys matchup very well with Southeastern Louisiana. In fact, in the earlier meeting they had the best PPP of the conference season. Unfortunately they lost 92-88 in what was a very even game. The Cowboys have played their best ball of the season as of late despite a 2-4 record. This team has been right there in every game except the 64-56 loss to Lamar. This is an undervalued team right now. The Lions of Southeastern Louisiana have had more success lately in the win/loss column. But when looking at the advanced stats they have been extremely inconsistent. The recent wins have been legit, but the losses were much worse than the final scores. For example last Saturday in an 86-84 overtime loss to Nichols State, the Lions were completely outplayed and should have lost by double digits in regulation. The host has been rather lucky as of late while the visitor has been better than the final scores indicate. We will gladly take the points with the Cowboys. PLAY MCNEESE STATE |
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02-22-21 | Houston Baptist v. Northwestern State -4.5 | 80-86 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show | |
307206 Houston Baptist at Northwestern State The Huskies of Houston Baptist have just one road win all season, a victory at Incarnate Word. One of their four victories overall was against this Northwestern State team 99-93 in overtime. But when looking at the advanced stats the Huskies were lucky to have won that contest. They held the Demons to 7 of 31 from downtown in that contest. This team isn’t known for its defensive prowess, ranking 315th in the country in adjusted efficiency. Northwestern State started the year losing 14 of 16, but have won five straight games entering this revenge contest. This team is playing much better ball than the previous meeting. Look for the Demons to continue their recent success here. PLAY NORTHWESTERN STATE |
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02-20-21 | Utah +9.5 v. Oregon | 64-67 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
765 Utah at Oregon The Utes had been playing pretty well with three straight victories. But have now dropped back to back games against Stanford and Oregon State. This is the third straight road game for Utah, as it looks to even out the season series with the Ducks. Oregon won the prior meeting 79-73 in Mid-January. Oregon is the hot team in the PAC 12 right now, winning 13 of 16 overall. After this contest the Ducks take to the road for four straight games. After knocking off Arizona and Colorado, we can see this as being a late spot for the host. PLAY UTAH |
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02-20-21 | Canisius v. Fairfield +5.5 | 53-66 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show | |
686 Canisius at Fairfield The Golden Griffins took care of the Stags last night 80-69. But a closer look at the advanced stats show they were lucky to come out ahead. Canisius had a season low offensive turnover percentage, and held Fairfield to 15 of 39 from two point range. This team has won five straight, but the advanced numbers say they should have had a 3-2 record. Fairfield has had a difficult season with a 5-15 record, but are playing much better as of late. Posting a 4-6 conference record since January 2nd, and winning three of six as of late. Luckily for us we rate the teams on how they are playing now, not contests played in December. PLAY FAIRFIELD |
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02-20-21 | West Virginia +3.5 v. Texas | 84-82 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
653 West Virginia at Texas The Mountaineers are coming in off a double overtime loss hosting Oklahoma. They have had a full week to stew over that defeat. Now they face a Texas team for the second time after a 72-70 home loss in Mid-January. That game was decided around the basket as the Mountaineers shot only 15 of 37 from two point range, while allowing the Longhorns to make 23 of 39 from that distance. Texas defends underneath the basket very well, so we expect West Virginia to try more shots from three point range. They rank 43rd in the country from distance. PLAY WEST VIRGINIA |
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02-20-21 | Texas Tech +1.5 v. Kansas | 61-67 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 54 m | Show | |
639 Texas Tech at Kansas The Red Raiders are in a positive situation on Saturday. Off their second straight loss to West Virginia, a team they clearly don’t match up well against. Now looking for revenge against a Kansas crew that beat them 58-57 in Mid-December. Texas Tech had a horrible shooting game in that contest, with 14 of 39 from two point range and 6 of 23 from downtown. Tech ranks 6th in the country in defensive turnovers, and 21st in defensive adjusted efficiency. Kansas is riding high with a four game winning streak, and have Texas revenge on deck. They were blown out by 25 vs the Longhorns, so you know that game has been circled. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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02-20-21 | Kentucky +7 v. Tennessee | 70-55 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show | |
619 Kentucky at Tennessee The Wildcats are finally playing better as of late with back to back wins over Auburn and Vanderbilt. Even in previous losses to Missouri and these Volunteers, Kentucky showed signs of coming around. Tennessee is still being picked by many to be a strong long shot in the Big Dance. But the Volunteers are only 4-4 SU lately in SEC play. Teams are starting to figure out this defense a bit. Coupled with the Wildcats improvement, the visitor is worthy of a wager. PLAY KENTUCKY |
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02-19-21 | South Alabama +3 v. Appalachian State | 65-63 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show | |
833 South Alabama at Appalachian State The Jaguars scuffled through most of the season but have run off six straight victories. They split the home series against Appalachian State, winning by 9 and losing by 6. That defeat on January 16th was the last loss in regulation for South Alabama. They shot a combined 21 of 44 from distance in those contests, and rank 84th in the country shooting from three point range. This is a club that ranks 23rd defensively in free throw rate, so don’t expect the Mountaineers to get many free throws. Appalachian State dropped both meetings at Troy over the weekend. While they rank 272nd in defensive adjusted efficiency, they do very well keeping the opposition from the line at the 12th best rate in the nation. In what we expect to be a lower scoring game we will take the road dog to win this outright. PLAY SOUTH ALABAMA |
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02-18-21 | Eastern Illinois v. Murray State -16 | Top | 68-59 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 9 m | Show |
754 Eastern Illinois at Murray State The Panthers of Eastern Illinois have had a disappointing season. They rank 303rd in offensive adjusted efficiency, and 290th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They don’t get to the line ranking 331st in free throw rate, and when they get there they shoot 66.0% 295th in the country. But somehow they found a way to beat Murray State 74-68 back in early January. The Racers have won 8 of 11 games since that loss, as Murray State has turned around its season. With only SIU Edwardsville on deck after beating them by 29 on Monday, you know the Panthers have their full attention. This one should get ugly in a hurry. PLAY MURRAY STATE |
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02-18-21 | Jacksonville State +12.5 v. Belmont | 59-63 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show | |
751 Jacksonville State at Belmont The Gamecocks are 14-7 on the season and 10-5 in the Ohio Valley. They are riding a four game winning streak into this step up game against Belmont. They lost at home to the Bruins 98-91 in Mid-January. In that game the Gamecocks had no problem getting the shots it wanted going 15 of 32 from downtown and 22 of 37 from two point range. Defensively the 1.33 PPP was by far its worst defensive performance of the season. Belmont is 22-1 and have reeled off 19 straight victories. The two toughest games remaining on the schedule are next Thursday and Saturday at Eastern Kentucky and Morehead State. The two teams the Bruins just beat by 18 and 15 points in the last week. In the middle of a four game homestead we can easily see this club overlooking the opposition. Too many points not to back a solid team in Jacksonville State. PLAY JACKSONVILLE STATE |
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02-17-21 | Kentucky v. Vanderbilt +4 | 82-78 | Push | 0 | 24 h 5 m | Show | |
688 Kentucky at Vanderbilt The Wildcats got a rare win on Saturday outlasting Auburn 82-80. This team has a habit of letting games slip away and they did their best to give the Tigers the victory. But survive they did and now they travel to Tennessee to face the Commodores and Volunteers. Kentucky beat Vanderbilt in early January 77-74 at home. In that game Kentucky had a 58.2 free throw rate, its highest of the season. They got all the calls in that one, can’t expect that to continue on the road. They are 2-8 SU away from home, with only one win coming in regulation. Vanderbilt has split its last four games overall, but even in defeats at the hands of Georgia and Auburn this team was very competitive. In fact, in the last four contests the Commodores have outscored the competition 302 to 278. Look for the host to continue its improved play. PLAY VANDERBILT |
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02-17-21 | The Citadel v. Wofford -8.5 | 67-81 | Win | 100 | 24 h 60 m | Show | |
690 The Citadel at Wofford The Bulldogs have dropped 8 of 11, but they did beat Wofford at home three weeks ago. In that game they dominated from distance hitting 14 of 27 while allowing just 5 of 29. That was a very rare quality defensive performance as 10 of 12 league games the opposition surpassed 1.0 PPP. In fact, the game after beating the Terriers, East Tennessee State scored 112 points with a whopping 1.51 PPP against these Bulldogs. Wofford enter this game having dropped two straight. In fact, after facing East Tennessee State, Chattanooga and Furman, this team is stepping down in class to face the Bulldogs. The Terriers haven’t lost more than two straight games all season. That continues here as Wofford wins by a margin. PLAY WOFFORD |
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02-17-21 | Western Carolina +8 v. Chattanooga | Top | 81-89 | Push | 0 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
681 Western Carolina at Chattanooga The Catamounts have really struggled in Southern Conference play. Posting a 2-10 record and losing to the Mocs 74-67 just two weeks ago. But despite the record Western has been very competitive this season, at least until Saturday when Furman took them to the woodshed in a 88-70 loss. They were actually fortunate in that contest, as the advanced numbers show it was the worst performance of the season for the Catamounts. What Mark Prosser’s team has done this season is bounce back from a bad performance. Chattanooga comes into this contest fat and happy. On a five game winning streak, including victories over East Tennessee State twice. Now they face the lowly Catamounts before taking on a home revenge contest against UNC Greensboro. Quite the sandwich game here for the host. Give us the points with the Catamounts to take this to the wire. PLAY WESTERN CAROLINA |
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02-16-21 | Northern Illinois v. Akron -16.5 | 76-81 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
602 Northern Illinois at Akron The Huskies have had a long season for various reasons not limited to on court play. They were behind the proverbial eight ball before the season even started. North Illinois owns two victories on the season. The first over a Chicago State team that was so bad it gave up and quit a third of the way through the year. The other victory, a 67-65 win hosting this Akron Zips team. In that game the Huskies hit 7 of 14 from deep and held the Zips to its second best defensive PPP of the season. Akron has lost four games all season, the defeat to the Huskies was the season low point. Since that time the Zips have reeled off 8 of 9 victories. Akron is also undefeated at home this year, with only two wins coming by single digits. Akron only has Ball State on deck and they whipped the Cardinals by 32 in the prior meeting. This one could get very ugly. PLAY AKRON |
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02-14-21 | Fairfield v. St. Peter's -10 | 49-66 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
820 Fairfield at St Peter’s The Stags upset St Peter’s yesterday 55-50, in one of the ugliest games you could imagine. The two teams combined for 8 of 37 from distance, and 28 of 66 from two point range. The Fairfield defense held the Peacocks to 2 of 17 from three point range, a season best. We don’t expect those numbers to repeat as the Peacocks rank 142nd in the nation from distance at 34.2%. St Peter’s is also ranked 2nd in the country defending the two, so don’t look for the visitor to duplicate the pedestrian 15 of 35 yesterday. After being held to its second lowest point total of the year, we expect a big bounce back effort from the host. Only one of these clubs has a defense, and we see why on Sunday. PLAY ST PETER’S |
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02-14-21 | Lafayette v. Loyola Maryland -2.5 | 69-88 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
307162 Lafayette at Loyola Maryland These two played a classic triple overtime contest yesterday, with the 2 1/2 point favorite Leopards winning by three. Can you imagine having Loyola in that contest and covering through regulation, overtime and a second overtime only to lose by the hook? Lafayette has now won back to back games after dropping three straight. But the advanced stats showed the Leopards should have lost all five contests. They held Loyola to only 4 of 24 from distance yesterday, a season best for the visitor. This will be the fourth straight time these two have tangled. Lafayette won the last two after Loyola took the opener 75-62. The Greyhounds have outscored the Leopards and only have a 1-2 mark to show for it. This club ranks 69th in the country in two point percentage, look for more pounding the ball inside from the host. PLAY LOYOLA MARYLAND |
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02-14-21 | South Dakota State -3 v. Oral Roberts | Top | 95-80 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
821 South Dakota State at Oral Roberts The Jackrabbits had a litter of mistakes yesterday in a 103-86 loss to Oral Roberts. The defense which had been only slightly below average simply didn’t give any effort. The 103 points allowed was a season high, besting the previous high of 84 in a win over Bradley. The 125.2 defensive PPP was also a season high, and they permitted 16 of 30 from downtown. This was also the lowest ranked team the Jackrabbits have lost to this season. Oral Roberts has a good offense, but this defense is ranked 306th in Adjusted Efficiency. This club simply does not have the defensive prowess to hold down the Jackrabbits in back to back games. South Dakota State has followed losses this season with wins by margins of 24, 3, 43 and 11 points. That includes a good Utah State team, and Big 12 participant Iowa State. PLAY SOUTH DAKOTA STATE |
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02-14-21 | Hofstra +2 v. James Madison | 70-74 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
795 Hofstra at James Madison The Pride dropped a 93-89 decision on this court yesterday. The Dukes shot 29 of 45 from two point range, the most two pointers Hofstra have allowed all season. It was also the worst defensive PPP on the year for this club. We expect a nice bounce back here from a team who had won 6 of 7 until that defeat on Saturday. James Madison sits fat and happy now riding a six game victory streak in the Colonial Conference. In what is expected to be a tight contest we want no part of this Dukes team ranking 280th in the country with a 67.0% free throw rate. PLAY HOFSTRA |
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02-14-21 | NJIT v. Hartford -2 | 61-75 | Win | 100 | 4 h 52 m | Show | |
307154 NJIT at Hartford The Highlanders have been alternating wins and losses for the past month. Yesterday NJIT beat Hartford 67-57 while holding them to 8 of 34 from distance. This is a good team defending the perimeter, so that’s not a complete surprise. That said, the 85.1 defensive PPP was a season best for the visitor. The Hartford Hawks are at their best pounding the ball inside. Yesterday they were solid 14 of 24 from two point range, they just settled for three pointers. That’s not the way John Gallagher wants to play, as the 24 inside shots tied a season low. While the 34 shots from distance was a season high. Look for the Hawks to get back to their preferred style of ball, by pounding the 239th ranked two point defensive Highlanders into submission. PLAY HARTFORD |
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02-13-21 | UCLA v. Washington +9.5 | Top | 64-61 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
744 UCLA at Washington Bruins have dropped three of four with the offense really struggling as of late. They did beat Washington in Mid-January 81-76 but only shot 20 of 50 from two point range. UCLA was just blown away at USC 66-48, then dropped a 81-73 decision to Washington State. A team the Bruins beat by 30 points just four weeks prior. No way we want to lay points with this squad at the moment. Washington is a bad basketball team but have been a competitive 3-5 SU at home. The offense has improved greatly as of late with five of nine games producing 59.6 or better EFG%. They can compete with this fading Bruins team. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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02-13-21 | South Alabama v. Troy State +2 | 58-51 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
720 South Alabama at Troy The Jaguars beat the Trojans yesterday 73-70 in a game they were actually outplayed according to the advanced stats. A low 13.8% turnover rate and 24 of 41 from 2 point range was enough to gain the victory. Now riding a five game winning streak with Appalachian State revenge on deck, it’s quite possible South Alabama overlooks the Trojans here. Troy has been playing outstanding ball as of late, despite dropping its last two games. Advanced stats show the Trojans have outplayed the opposition now in 7 of 8 games. This is a team on the rise that has been under the betting market radar. We are ahead of the curve with this squad. PLAY TROY |
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02-13-21 | Wofford v. East Tennessee State -2 | 49-71 | Win | 100 | 4 h 54 m | Show | |
678 Wofford at East Tennessee State The Terriers are really struggling right now being outplayed in the advanced statistics in four straight games. But because they were able to split those games on the scoreboard it has gone under the national radar. The Buccaneers are off two losses themselves after winning 5 of 6. In the previous meeting East Tennessee State permitted the Terriers to shoot 20 of 31 from 2 point range, the second worst mark of the season. This from a team that’s held their own all season from that defensive range. With just two losses all season at the Freedom Hall Civic Center, we look for the Buccaneers to right the ship. Pun intended. PLAY EAST TENNESSEE STATE |
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02-13-21 | Texas Southern -3.5 v. Grambling State | 75-73 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 30 m | Show | |
307125 Texas Southern at Grambling The Tigers of Texas Southern are playing really good ball as of late. Winning four straight games, while the advanced stats show they have outplayed the opposition in five straight. The difference between the two was a 78-72 home loss to these Grambling Tigers. That was the only loss at H&PE Arena this season. Grambling was good to us earlier in the week but now we look to fade this team. They are riding a four game winning streak, but it’s likely not sustainable. This team has been hot from distance, something it hasn’t shown at any other time this season. They are ranked 150th in 3 point shooting percentage on the year. We are looking to fade a team playing above expectations. PLAY TEXAS SOUTHERN |
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02-13-21 | Iowa v. Michigan State +5.5 | 88-58 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 45 m | Show | |
654 Iowa at Michigan State The Hawkeyes have dropped four of six games lately, but are coming off a nice home win over Rutgers. That was the most dominant game for Iowa since blowing out Northwestern January 17th. The problem all season for the Hawkeyes has been a non-existent defense and a head coach that pulls his best players at the slightest sign of foul trouble. The previous meeting Iowa won at home 84-78 while having its third best adjusted offensive numbers of the season. Michigan State had dropped seven of nine before back to back wins over Penn State and Nebraska. But even in that loss to Iowa on the 2nd, Michigan State hung in there despite a season worst defensive effort in PPP. The Spartans certainly aren’t near prior editions, but this is a team starting to come around. Let’s back this improving team against an overrated Hawkeyes squad. PLAY MICHIGAN STATE |
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02-13-21 | Butler v. Georgetown -1 | 63-78 | Win | 100 | 20 h 48 m | Show | |
630 Butler at Georgetown The Bulldogs are coming off three highly competitive contests with the most recent being a 76-73 OT win over St John’s. The advanced stats show that Butler was lucky to come away with two victories. Defense has been a concern all season, with a 277th ranked effective field goal percentage. Georgetown has dropped 7 of 9, but deserved better results. After facing Creighton twice and Villanova, we expect a drop down in class after five straight Top 75 teams. With no other game for the Hoyas for another seven days, they are extremely motivated in this one. PLAY GEORGETOWN |
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02-13-21 | Auburn v. Kentucky -1.5 | 80-82 | Win | 100 | 19 h 20 m | Show | |
626 Auburn at Kentucky The Tigers haven’t played well of late dropping 3 of 4. The lone win came Tuesday at Vanderbilt 73-67. Four weeks ago these two met in Auburn and they came away with a 66-59 win. That was despite 5 of 24 shooting from distance. But that’s what the Wildcats are good at, ranking 72nd in the country in three point defense. After facing Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri and Alabama, we see the host getting even with the Tigers here. Not often we find value on a big name program like Kentucky, but Saturday we back the Wildcats. PLAY KENTUCKY |
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02-12-21 | Georgia Tech +4.5 v. Clemson | 72-74 | Win | 100 | 27 h 25 m | Show | |
883 Georgia Tech at Clemson The Yellow Jackets are a solid 9-7, but should have 11.9 victories based on the numbers at shotquality.com. Tech just gave Virginia all the Cavaliers could handle in a 57-49 loss, that was played much closer than the final score. Georgia Tech dominated Clemson in the earlier meeting 83-65, and nothing from that game would show the Tigers should be a sizable favorite here. Clemson started the year 9-1, but have gone 3-4 as of late. The defense ranks 15th in adjusted efficiency, but the offense ranks in the lower half of college basketball in just about every offensive category. We just don’t trust this team to score enough points to distance themselves from this Yellow Jackets team. PLAY GEORGIA TECH |
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02-12-21 | Stetson -5.5 v. Kennesaw State | 74-61 | Win | 100 | 25 h 25 m | Show | |
307069 Stetson at Kennesaw State The Hatters had its three game winning streak snapped Saturday vs Lipscomb. But despite the 69-61 score Stetson was the better team. This is a club that ranks 68th in 3 point accuracy, but was a combined 22 of 57 in the two game Lipscomb series. Kennesaw State is 3-15 on the season with every victory coming against a Non-Division One program. Overall eight of the 15 defeats were by double digits. The Owls have lost to a who’s who of lower 200 opponents. Pun intended. Winless on the road, and losing by more than this spread in all but one of those games. Lay it with the much better team. PLAY STETSON |
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02-12-21 | Manhattan +5.5 v. Iona | Top | 67-85 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
845 Manhattan at Iona The Jaspers have dropped four straight, but were the better team last time out in a 71-69 overtime loss to Monmouth. Only one of the last seven losses was by more than 5 points, with three games going to overtime. This is a much better team that its record. The Gaels have won three straight, but have been nothing special other than ranking 44th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. Manhattan is actually pretty good as well ranking 89th in that category. Plenty of value here on an underdog that is quietly staying under the radar. PLAY MANHATTAN |
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02-11-21 | Iowa State +15 v. Kansas | 64-97 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 6 m | Show | |
721 Iowa State at Kansas According to Shot Quality stats the Cyclones are a much better team that its record. With a 2-12 mark on the season, the team should have 4.8 wins based on the type of shots they are able to get. Iowa State has lost 11 of 12 but have played an extremely tough schedule. Eleven games against Top 100 opposition, seven against Top 30 squads. Off a 79-76 loss to TCU, in a game in which the advanced stats show Iowa State should have been the winner. Texas is off that huge win over Oklahoma State. Now faces Iowa State twice and Kansas State. It's a game that the Jayhawks will likely put on cruise control. That makes this line extremely high. PLAY IOWA STATE |
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02-11-21 | Utah -5 v. California | Top | 76-75 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 20 m | Show |
713 Utah at California The Utes were a team that suffered some bad luck losses early on. But have now won 4 of 6 as of late. One of those defeats came while hosting Cal in a 72-63 defeat. Since that time they outplayed Washington in a 83-79 loss, and beat Colorado and Arizona. Cal is only 5-5 straight up in this building, with four of those five victories coming against 180th and higher ranked opponents. On the season against Top 120 opposition the Bears are 2-14 SU. Look for that to continue on Thursday. PLAY UTAH |
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02-11-21 | Purdue v. Minnesota -2 | 68-71 | Win | 100 | 21 h 9 m | Show | |
738 Purdue at Minnesota The Boilermakers are 3-5 SU on the road, but only one victory came by more than two points. Purdue crushed the Golden Gophers 81-62 just 12 days ago at home. In that game Purdue made 8 of 15 from distance. But this team hasn’t had the same success shooting from three on the road. Just 49 of 170 away from Mackey Arena. Minnesota is 12-1 straight up at home this year. All victories by 5 or more points. After snapping a three game losing streak last time out against Nebraska, we feel the Golden Gophers come to play here. They avenged a loss earlier when pounding Michigan by 18. Minnesota brings that revenge mark to 2-0 here. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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02-10-21 | Wichita State v. UCF +2 | 61-60 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
654 Wichita State at Central Florida The Shockers recently knocked off the Golden Knights 93-88 in overtime. In that contest they really struggled to control UCF in the paint, as the Golden Knights shot 29 of 43 from two point range. In fact, the 62.3 effective field goal percentage was the worst defensive outing of the season for Wichita State. Central Florida has lost 8 of 10 as of late, but are coming off a confidence building win at Tulsa. The only home losses for the host came against Houston and SMU. We like the Golden Knights to shock Wichita State. PLAY CENTRAL FLORIDA |
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02-10-21 | Chattanooga +4.5 v. Wofford | 78-66 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
667 Chattanooga at Wofford I’m sure the Mocs have had this game circled after being beaten at home by Wofford in the earlier meeting. In that game they shot just 4 of 21 from distance, and allowed a 40.5 offensive rebounding percentage to the Terriers. Keep in mind Chattanooga rank 78th in the country in three point percentage, and 77th keeping the opposition off the glass. Wofford is struggling a bit as of late. Losing to VMI in overtime on this court, and squeaking out a 75-67 win at Furman. While the final margin was seven points, the Terriers were lucky to come away with a win. They held the Paladins to a season second best 9.4 free throw rate. PLAY CHATTANOOGA |
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02-10-21 | Bradley -1.5 v. Valparaiso | Top | 76-52 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
671 Bradley at Valparaiso We backed Valpo on Sunday as a sizable underdog against Drake. Not only did they cover wire to wire they actually ended the undefeated season for the Bulldogs. But this is another day, as we look to fade the fat and happy club off a nationally recognized upset win. While the Braves are 1-7 SU on the road this year, they have played much better than their record. A one point loss at Xavier, a one point loss at Missouri and a double overtime loss to these Crusaders. In that earlier meeting Valparaiso had a 53.5 free throw rate, which is the worst defensive FTR of the season for Bradley. The Braves on the other hand had a 21.8 FTR in that meeting. Bradley has lost 7 of 8 games recently, but our advanced stats show they should have split those eight games. We are catching an underrated team, with revenge, against a Valpo squad off its biggest win in recent memory. PLAY BRADLEY |
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02-09-21 | Syracuse v. NC State -1 | 77-68 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 4 m | Show | |
612 Syracuse at NC State Orange are really struggling as of late and are coming off its worst effort of the season. They have dropped 5 of its last 9 games. One of those victories was just ten days ago in a 76-73 home victory over these Wolfpack. NC State has had troubles of their own as of late dropping 6 of 8. But they deserved a better outcome at Syracuse, as advanced stats show they should have pulled out that victory. After a satisfying win at Boston College we expect State to get its revenge in this one. PLAY NC STATE |
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02-09-21 | Notre Dame +8 v. Duke | 93-89 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
607 Notre Dame at Duke Big revenge game for the Irish after losing at home 75-65 in Mid-December. This club is starting to heat up as of late with wins in 4 of 6. But when looking at the advanced stats Notre Dame should have gone 5-1 in those contests. They are coming off an 82-80 loss at Georgia Tech, a game in which the Yellow Jackets shot 7 of 14 from distance and 28 of 46 from two point range. That’s the second best offensive effective field goal percentage of the season for Georgia Tech. Duke for some reason has been taking money today. This is still a team that has lost 5 of 7 overall, with just one win in its last seven games by more than this spread. It’s also a likely letdown spot after playing arch rival North Carolina on Saturday. PLAY NOTRE DAME |
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02-08-21 | Oklahoma State +6.5 v. Kansas | Top | 66-78 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
863 Oklahoma State at Kansas Cowboys off by far its worst offensive PPP of the season at 0.83. Made just 19 of 55 two pointers, keep in mind this is a Top 100 team from that range. Kansas has lost 5 of 7 as of late. Only wins were against TCU and Kansas State. Jayhawks are 4-7 vs Top 50 opposition, 4 of those wins were by 4 points or less. This line is simply too high to back the host. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE |
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02-07-21 | Indiana State v. Northern Iowa -2 | 67-70 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
818 Indiana State at Northern Iowa The Sycamores are riding high winning seven straight before this quick rematch with Northern Iowa. But Indiana State relies too much on four players who play at least 68% of the available minutes. We realize these are young college kids, but after winning seven straight games how invested will they be for this contest. Northern Iowa is having a down season by anyones standards. Posting a 5-12 record on the season and 3-8 in conference action. The one thing this club does very well is keep the opposition off the offensive glass, ranking 4th in the country in that regard. UNI is also a very deep team with six players getting half or more available minutes each game. Look for that depth to be the difference here. PLAY NORTHERN IOWA |
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02-07-21 | Boise State -5 v. Nevada | 62-73 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
821 Boise State at Nevada The Broncos were upset yesterday in Reno 74-72. That’s just the third loss of the season for Boise State. This club is really tough on the boards ranking 102nd in offensive rebounding percentage and 5th keeping the opposition off the glass. In turn they are 34th in the country in two point shooting percentage. That wasn’t the case yesterday as Boise only made 15 of 30 from short distance, while the Wolf Pack cashed in on 22 of 35 from two point range. That all comes down to lack of effort and weak physicality, two things we believe the Broncos bring today. Nevada is a good team, but not the type of squad that is going to sweep a superior team on back to back nights. PLAY BOISE STATE |
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