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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-30-21 | USC v. Gonzaga UNDER 153.5 | Top | 66-85 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
658 USC & Gonzaga Can’t wait for this one as we expect it to be a defensive dog fight. USC ranks 8th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and 7th in defensive effective field goal percentage. This team leads the nation in defending two point baskets at 41.5%. USC is also 231st in pace, so they should be able to slow down the Zags fast break. Both teams are in the top 40 in defensive free throw rate, as neither puts the opponent on the line. Gonzaga is a team that wants to get out and run, ranking 1st in two point field goal percentage. They have yet to face any opponent this season that is anywhere near as strong as the Trojans around the basket. This is just a bad matchup for Gonzaga, but their elite talent will likely have them advance. But we look for a much slower pace than we have seen the Zags play thus far. PLAY UNDER |
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02-26-21 | Kings v. Pistons OVER 227.5 | 110-107 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
531 Sacramento at Detroit The Kings are riding a nine game losing streak, and are ending a five game road trip. The last four games they allowed 140, 127, 128 and 122 points. And oh yeah, they are unrested after playing in New York last night. Detroit returns home after its own five game road trek. Wednesday in New Orleans the Pelicans ran them to death and they faded in the fourth quarter. The Pistons coaching staff has said they are going to run the Kings as much as possible tonight, as they finally have the rested legs. With this being a high paced game we look for points to be plenty. PLAY OVER |
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02-03-21 | Wizards v. Heat UNDER 229 | 103-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
566 Washington at Miami Both teams are coming off embarrassing defensive performances. In fact, Washington has permitted 146 and 132 the past two games. Each team talked about doing a much better job on the defensive end entering tonight. The Heat rank 25th offensively on the season, but even worse the past two weeks at 29th. Defensively Miami is 19th defensively, but 15th the past two weeks. Washington is 12th offensively on the season, but just 24th the past 14 days. The defense is 28th overall and 29th as of late. With both teams desperate for a win we look for the increased defensive presence to be the key. PLAY UNDER |
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01-21-21 | Lakers v. Bucks UNDER 229 | 113-106 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
524 LA Lakers at Milwaukee These two teams have played the weakest defensive strength of schedules in the league. So their offensive numbers are a bit inflated coming into this matchup. The Bucks defensive possession length is 14.8 seconds, which is the highest in the league. Neither team draws a lot of fouls and these are the two top teams in defensive free throw rate. So scoring with the clock stopped won’t be much of a factor. The Lakers lead the NBA in defensive points per possession, and both squads are off a rare loss. Look for this game to have extra intensity as it stays well below the posted total. PLAY UNDER |
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01-12-21 | Jazz v. Cavs UNDER 207 | Top | 117-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
536 Utah at Cleveland Jazz in their sixth of seven on the road with the finale in Washington tomorrow. Don’t think Utah wants to push the pace with tired legs, especially with another game tomorrow. This team has had two back to backs already this season, scoring just 95 and 96 points on the front end of those occurrences. Cleveland has now played eight straight games scoring less than the century mark. This team simply doesn’t have any scoring with virtually half the squad sitting on the sidelines. Worked for us yesterday, let’s play it again. PLAY UNDER |
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01-11-21 | Grizzlies v. Cavs UNDER 206.5 | Top | 101-91 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
518 Memphis at Cleveland Since the Ja Morant injury the Grizzlies are averaging just 100 points per game. These two played just a few days ago and the Cavaliers pulled out a 94-90 victory. Since that time the Cavs have gotten Isaac Okoro back, their best overall defender. Cleveland has failed to reach 100 points in seven straight games. Sexton is day to day while virtually half the team is currently out. The only way either of these teams have success is on the defensive end of the court. PLAY UNDER |
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12-25-20 | Wisconsin v. Michigan State UNDER 140.5 | Top | 85-76 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
752 Wisconsin at Michigan State The Badgers have been a fan favorite this year, coming in with a 7-1 record. The only loss coming at Marquette, the lone road game on the schedule. Wisconsin put up great scoring numbers in non-conference play, but had just 65 on the road at Marquette, and 67 of the 120 scored vs Nebraska in the first conference game of the season. Michigan State sits at 6-1, but 0-1 in the Big Ten after losing to an improved Northwestern on the road Sunday. With road games on deck against Minnesota and Nebraska, this is a very important game for the Spartans. Teams in conference play know all about what you are trying to run offensively, which is why unders are preferred early in conference play. With the importance of this game, along with the pace rating of 324 for the Badgers, we expect this to be a low scoring affair. PLAY UNDER |
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12-18-20 | Tennessee Tech v. Tennessee UNDER 129.5 | 49-103 | Loss | -106 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
838 Tennessee Tech at Tennessee The Golden Eagles rank 315th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. Every offensive statistic, including free throw shooting, say this team simply can’t score. Now it’s going up against arguably the best defense in the country. Tennessee is 22nd in the nation defending the three, and 27th defending the two pointer. That includes games against Colorado, Cincinnati and Appalachian State. This is a complete mismatch, as we doubt the Golden Eagles can reach 40 points. Instead of laying the huge number, we look for this to be a low scoring affair. BTW, Tennessee’s adjusted tempo is 329th. PLAY UNDER |
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12-16-20 | Montana v. Washington UNDER 132.5 | 66-58 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
702 Montana at Washington Two pretty good teams desperate for a victory here. Montana, expected to be among the top of the Big Sky, sits 1-4 on the season. In games involving top 100 squads the Grizzlies had a 89.3 ppp against USC and a 69.0 ppp against Georgia. This club is really struggling to score against sound defensive squads. Washington ranks 83rd in our power ratings, but has won just once in five games to start the season. The Huskies too have struggled when stepping up in class with ppp numbers of 77.7 vs Baylor, 89.0 against Utah and 98.9 vs Oregon. Expect the pace to be slow with the importance of a victory for both these teams. PLAY UNDER |
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12-03-20 | Texas-San Antonio v. Oklahoma OVER 157 | Top | 66-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
765 UTSA at Oklahoma The Roadrunners have an excellent backcourt which is willing to run with the Sooners. Adjusted tempo ranking 24th, Assist Rate of 15th and a good free-throw shooting squad ranking 8th in the country. Steve Henson is a Lon Kruger former assistant. Oklahoma is tipping off its season here before stepping up in class against TCU and Xavier. With three sophomores and two freshmen on the team we can see the coaching staff letting the squad play a bit more street ball here. Roll out the ball and see what you have if you will. Should be a fun atmosphere in this one. PLAY OVER |
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03-11-20 | Knicks v. Hawks OVER 232 | 136-131 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
547 New York at Atlanta The Knicks are playing in the second game of a back to back situation. In those type of games New York has really struggled defensively. Recent point totals in back to back games have been 221, 275 against these Hawks, 233, 232, 225, and 246 points. With both of these teams out of the playoff chase we look for a free flowing game with points a plenty. PLAY OVER |
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01-31-20 | Blazers v. Lakers OVER 230 | Top | 127-119 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
513 Portland at LA Lakers The Blazers are playing a faster pace as of late with 20.4 more points the last five than the season average. Offensively the Blazers have scored 125, 139, 125 and 129 the last four outings. In two previous meetings these two combined for 249 and 248. The Lakers had its lowest scoring output of the season last time out in a 108-91 loss to Philadelphia. With tonight being a celebration of Kobe, I would expect this game to be played free and easy. Tonight will be a spectacle and we expect a lot of scoring. PLAY OVER |
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03-19-19 | Loyola-Chicago v. Creighton OVER 136 | 61-70 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
689 Loyola Chicago at Creighton The Blue Jays were disappointed in not making the big dance, so the team won’t likely play much defense here. We expect an up and down game from two teams who can get the shots they want from these defenses. Creighton takes 46.9% of its shots from 3, making a solid 38.5% of those attempts. Loyola allows a long distance shooting percentage of 36.6%. Loyola prefers to shoot inside the arc with 41% success from midrange and 63.6% at the rim. Creighton allows 41.2% from midrange and 63.2% at the rim. It doesn’t hurt that this will be the last game of the season for one of these teams, so late game fouling to extend the season in probable. PLAY OVER |
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03-07-19 | Valparaiso v. Indiana State UNDER 126.5 | 77-55 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
632 Valparaiso & Indiana State Tournament game in St Louis Valpo does a good job of limiting opponent threes by allowing just 35% opponent shots from the perimeter. Neither team takes many long distance shots at percentages of 28.1% for Indiana State and 33.9% for Valparaiso. Indiana State takes way to many midrange shots at 34.9%, while Valpo forces opponents to take 28.8% of attempts from that range. PLAY UNDER |
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03-05-19 | Mississippi State v. Tennessee UNDER 146.5 | 54-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
642 Mississippi State at Tennessee Bulldogs looking to bounce back from a loss at Auburn last time out. After holding the previous five opponents to 67 points or less, Auburn put up 80. Very much like Tennessee the Bulldogs love shooting from midrange. Putting up 30.4% of its shots from that area, while the Volunteers attempt 36.5% of its shots from that distance. Neither team shoots a lot at the rim with both teams in the 31-32% range, which is below average. Tennessee coming off the revenge win over Kentucky. Both teams match up pretty well here which points us towards a low scoring game. PLAY UNDER |
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03-02-19 | South Carolina v. Missouri UNDER 136.5 | Top | 63-78 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 25 m | Show |
660 South Carolina at Missouri The first meeting had 160 points which gives us an advantageous line here for the rematch. Neither team is prolific from deep and South Carolina only attempts 34.5% of its shots from that range. Both teams defend the mid-range shot well, and the Gamecocks attempt 36.6% of its shots from that low efficiency area. Both teams rarely shoot at the rim, yet they are very good at stopping opponents from doing so. Therefore without easy baskets we can see this contest being very low scoring. PLAY UNDER |
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02-21-19 | Pepperdine v. Gonzaga UNDER 156 | 64-92 | Push | 0 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
628 Pepperdine at Gonzaga Last road game of the season for the Waves who have been terrible away from home this year. Pepperdine is 2-10 SU on the season, and a huge underdog in this contest. With back to back winnable games at home to finish the season, we can’t see the Waves running with Gonzaga here. This team has gone under the total in 14 of its last 20 games. Gonzaga on the other hand has an improving BYU on deck in two days. The Zags have gone under the total in 14 of 19 games as of late. Only one conference game has finished with more than 156 points. Pepperdine takes 41.8% of its shots from beyond the arc, but Gonzaga only permits 34.9% of opponents shots from there, along with an excellent 29.6% success rate. Gonzaga can name the score here, but what is the incentive against a foe who just wants to get out of here without embarrassment. PLAY UNDER |
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02-20-19 | North Carolina v. Duke UNDER 165.5 | 88-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
820 North Carolina at Duke While the general public will look for this to be a high scoring contest. When you break these teams down we find plenty of value on the under. The Tar Heels are an excellent 3 point shooting team, cashing in on 38.6% of attempts from long range. But that’s the strength of this Duke defense as the Blue Devils hold the opposition to just 29.7% from deep. North Carolina in our opinion takes way too many midrange shots, and Duke permits 28.2% of shots to be taken from that range. Duke only allows 29.2% shooting from that area of the court. On the other hand Duke takes 43.7% of its shots at the rim, while North Carolina only allows 30.4% of shots to be taken from close range. So the preferred shooting areas of both teams should be defended well in this matchup. PLAY UNDER |
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02-19-19 | Maryland v. Iowa UNDER 148 | Top | 66-65 | Win | 100 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
626 Maryland at Iowa Having a hard time seeing these two getting to the posted total in this one. Terps have reached this number just once on the conference road all season. Maryland ranks 277th in the country in pace, and 19th in effective field goal defense. This team is outstanding defensively at the rim, allowing just 57% field goals. As well as behind the arc forcing opponents to shoot 31.6%. Iowa is also very good defensively from distance permitting just 31.4% shooting from behind the arc. While the Hawkeyes are 70th in pace, the team is 216th in field goal attempts per 100 trips up court. We look for this game to total 143 points or less. PLAY UNDERÂ |
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01-27-19 | Washington State v. Oregon OVER 144 | Top | 58-78 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
839 Washington State at Oregon We expect this one to be a shootout. The Cougars have permitted 90, 88, 92 and 85 points on the road the past four games, all in conference. Oregon is coming off its second lowest offensive output of the season. The Cougars shoot 43.9% on its shots from behind the arc, while Oregon allows teams to take 47% of its shots from 3 point land. That means long shot attempts a plenty for Washington State. Neither team forces opponents to shoot between the rim and the arc, which traditionally is the least effective offensive shots. Therefore both teams will be able to attack the basket and dish to waiting 3 point shooters. PLAY OVER |
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01-19-19 | Southern Miss v. Old Dominion UNDER 124 | 62-76 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
662 Southern Miss at Old Dominion Very low total here for a reason. Old Dominion limits opponents to just 44.9% effective shooting. Overall 6 of the last 8 home games have stayed under the total. Southern Miss is a high scoring team on the home, but when traveling the Golden Eagles can’t keep up the same pace. This team has posted a 1-4-1 under mark as of late away from home. The lines maker can only post total so low, and we feel these teams will struggle to reach 120. Plenty of value on the under. PLAY UNDER |
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01-18-19 | Ohio v. Toledo UNDER 143.5 | 52-75 | Win | 100 | 2 h 6 m | Show | |
860 Ohio U at Toledo These teams had much better offensive efficiency numbers a year ago and the pace ratings were higher. In the last time these clubs met a season ago 156 points were scored. But this is a different year especially for the Bobcats who simply struggle putting the ball in the hoop. Because of that Ohio has slowed the pace down while waiting til 19 seconds of the possession has gone off before averaging a shot attempt. That slow pace should keep them competitive here. Toledo played very fast in non-conference action, but has slowed the pace considerably in MAC play. We look for this game to stay under the posted total. PLAY UNDER |
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01-17-19 | Michigan State v. Nebraska UNDER 147 | Top | 70-64 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
634 Michigan State at Nebraska Spartans a bit short handed tonight in what is considered a playoff type of game for the Huskers. Michigan State has been a big offensive scoring team by getting out on the break, but that success was in non-conference play. Now in Big Ten action these teams know what to expect from the Spartans. Therefore we expect a more physical lower scoring game. Nebraska can’t beat this team by trying to outscore them, the Huskers need to slow the pace and be physical in a show me type of game. PLAY UNDER |
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12-28-18 | Cavs v. Heat UNDER 202 | 94-118 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
520 Cleveland at Miami The Cavaliers just don’t have enough offensive playmakers to win on a consistent basis. Which is why the Cavaliers need to play well on the defensive end to have any type of success. Miami has inserted Winslow into the starting lineup for the more offensively oriented Dragic, who is out with an injury. Winslow is a poor shooter but a very good defender. We expect a poor shooting game all around as this contest easily stays below the posted total. PLAY UNDER |
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12-10-18 | Cavs v. Bucks OVER 219 | 92-108 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 28 m | Show | |
515 Cleveland at Milwaukee Should be a friendly contest as these teams just completed a trade with two of the players likely to see action tonight. Milwaukee just played Golden State and Toronto, two very intense games. Can’t expect the same type of emotion tonight, which leads to more of a freelance contest. We look for a fast paced game. PLAY OVER |
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11-27-18 | Nevada v. Loyola-Chicago UNDER 150 | 79-65 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show | |
524 Nevada at Loyola Chicago Sweet 16 rematch as the Wolfpack to look avenge its season at the hands of the host. But the teams are a bit different this year as the Ramblers don’t have the offense of a year ago. Therefore we look for the host to milk the clock more than the last meeting. This total is six points higher than that contest, yet the offenses aren’t quite as good. Let’s look for a low scoring affair. PLAY UNDER |
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04-03-18 | Raptors v. Cavs OVER 222 | Top | 106-112 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
703 Toronto at Cleveland The Cavs have had no answer for this Raptors offense. Toronto has scored 133 and 129 points in the first two meetings. While the Cleveland defense has gotten better the slashing Raptors have taken advantage of the Cleveland weakness, an inside defensive presence. Every game is important for Cleveland right now as it looks to hold onto the third seed in the east. Therefore since the team can’t slow down the Raptors, we expect LeBron and company to try to match them offensively, resulting in a high scoring contest. PLAY OVER |
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03-23-18 | Syracuse v. Duke UNDER 132.5 | Top | 65-69 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
876 Syracuse & Duke This is a very bad matchup for the Orangemen. Here we have two zone defenses with Duke switching to the zone half way through the season. In order to beat the zone you need to penetrate and dish. That would mean the ability to hit 3 point shots. Unfortunately for Syracuse the team has the worst 3 point shooting out of the Sweet 16 entrants at 31.7%. Duke only allows 31.9% from behind the arc. The Orange are also the slowest paced team, so it will take as much time as possible to take a shot. Syracuse does a nice job from distance defensively allowing just 32.1% shooting. The total in this game is on the low side, but it’s not low enough. These teams met in late February and Duke won 60-44. We expect another similar score here. PLAY UNDER |
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03-20-18 | Pistons v. Suns OVER 215 | Top | 115-88 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
661 Detroit at Phoenix Now that the Pistons are virtually out of playoff contention we are seeing the Detroit defense pulling a no show. In 10 of the last 16 games opponents have reached 110 or more points. What was once a team strength has turn into a liability. Phoenix has been in tank mode for quite some time, especially on the defensive end. Here are the point totals allowed over the last eight games, 124, 116, 129, 122, 115, 125, 113 and 124 points. The Suns haven’t won two straight games since December, as the players are just running up and down the court to add to their stats. We expect this one to fly over the posted total. PLAY OVER |
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03-09-18 | Lakers v. Nuggets OVER 229.5 | 116-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
813 LA Lakers at Denver This series has been a very high scoring one although the last meeting did go under. Let’s take a look at the point totals as of late for the Lakers on the road. How bout 228 vs the Spurs, 244 vs the Heat, 227 against the Hawks, 221 vs the Kings, 230 vs the T-Wolves, 256 against the Pelicans, and 253 against the Mavericks. Denver runs a faster pace at home as opposed to the road. We look for another high scoring affair here as we look to surpass the posted total. PLAY OVER |
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03-09-18 | Clemson v. Virginia UNDER 117 | 58-64 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
866 Clemson at Virginia Coming off a 90-82 win over Boston College the Tigers would likely have to play eight quarters against this Virginia defense to reach that number. In the prior meeting the Cavaliers defense completely shut down this team in winning 61-36. In the last month Clemson has been held to 57 against Duke, 58 against Virginia Tech and 52 against Syracuse. The Cavaliers are allowing an opponent effective field goal percent of just 43.5% on the season. Even in victory this team doesn’t put up a lot of points. Only reaching 69 points or better twice in 17 games. We look for another offensive grinder here with this game barely reaching triple digits. PLAY UNDER |
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02-26-18 | Bulls v. Nets OVER 217.5 | 87-104 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
703 Chicago at Brooklyn Word is that Zach LaVine may sit out tonight because of rest, but regardless we feel this game will surpass the posted total. Chicago has now permitted 13 straight opponents to reach the century mark. The last three games opponents scored 122, 116 and 122 points. Brooklyn in turn has permitted 14 straight opponents to hit the century mark. In the last six games the Nets have permitted 111, 108, 114, 138, 115 and 123 points. Both teams are in clear tank mode right now which means defense will be just a thought. With players looking to pad season stats we look for this contest to go over. PLAY OVER  |
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02-23-18 | Mavs v. Lakers OVER 222.5 | 102-124 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
821 Dallas at LA Lakers As with our winning play yesterday featuring two teams just playing out the string, we will look for another high scoring affair here. Mark Cuban has already told his team that in order to win in the future the players should tank the rest of the way out. And since players are looking out for themselves you know they will be looking to pad their offensive stats. Over the last eight days the Mavericks have permitted 114, 104, 123, 121 and 104 points. The Lakers are allowing 110 points on the season and the last three games before the break they permitted 119, 139 and 130 points. That 130 contest was a 130-123 loss to these very same Mavericks. PLAY OVER |
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01-08-18 | Cavs v. Wolves OVER 222 | Top | 99-127 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
705 Cleveland at Minnesota The Cavaliers are scoring 129 points per game with Isiah Thomas in the lineup. The offense is virtually unstoppable and the bench players are really playing well offensively. The problem is a defense that was originally bad, but is even worse with Thomas on the floor. Tonight both teams have many options to take advantage of offensively, as the Cavs have no rim protector, and the Wolves are terrific attacking the basket. The Anthony-Towns and Love matchup should provide huge numbers offensively. The number is high for a reason, but not high enough. PLAY OVER |
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06-01-17 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 225.5 | Top | 91-113 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 43 m | Show |
701 Cleveland at Golden State The Cavaliers build its team this year in order to match up better with the Warriors in the full court game. Shooters abound from downtown and Kyrie and LeBron both have the ability to get into the lane. The problem is that Cleveland only has one defensive stopper and Tristan Thompson will likely matchup with Kevin Durant, which will pull him away from the basket. If you watched the first three rounds it was clear that Cleveland couldn’t rotate on three point shooters, but fortunately the opposition couldn’t hit a wide open shot. That won’t be the case here as the Warriors live for this wide open floor game. We expect this opening game to be a shootout with the Warriors continually pressing the issue. PLAY OVER |
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03-27-17 | Cavs v. Spurs OVER 211 | 74-103 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
735 Cleveland at San Antonio We easily won with the Cavaliers over last time out, and there is no reason to change our stripes here. The Cavaliers are a terrible defensive team right now with Love, Kyrie and Korver playing extended minutes. In the last 11 games between these two an average of 207 points was scored. Only once has the total on those games been over that 207 number. San Antonio knows how bad this Cleveland defense has been and have the coach to exploit it. We look for a high scoring game with Cleveland’s defense once again being abused. PLAY OVER |
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03-25-17 | Wizards v. Cavs OVER 215 | Top | 127-115 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
503 Washington at Cleveland Prime opportunity to look for a high scoring game between these two Eastern Conference playoff participants. Washington is playing to avenge a loss to Cleveland that broke a 17 game home winning streak. The Wizards want to beat the Cavs badly as it’s a proving ground for the playoffs. Cleveland has been terrible in the second of back to back games, and is must likely without LeBron James tonight because of a poked eye last night in Charlotte. Without LeBron and his defense the Cavs will be led by Kyrie and Kevin, two excellent offensive players with major defensive liabilities. With Wall and Irving looking to push the pace we see this game easily surpassing the posted total. PLAY OVER |
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03-06-17 | College of Charleston v. North Carolina Wilmington UNDER 146 | Top | 69-78 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
534 College of Charleston & NC Wilmington These two will battle it out for the lone invite to the Big Dance. The total in this game seems rather high considering none of the past nine games surpassed this current total. With the importance of this game we would expect the defenses to give a better effort. Also this is the third game in three days for both teams, so the jump shots could very well come up short. PLAY UNDER |
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03-04-17 | Jacksonville State v. Tennessee-Martin UNDER 137.5 | Top | 66-55 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
702 Jacksonville State & Tennessee-Martin Gamecocks coming into the Championship off a shocking win over conference powerhouse Belmont. Martin knocked off Murray State for the second time in a week to get to this point. This game pits the #2 and #4 seeds in the tournament. While this conference is known for its offense we are going to look for a slower paced game here on Saturday. Pressure of the win and go dancing of this game gives the defenses the edge. PLAY UNDER |
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03-02-17 | Warriors v. Bulls OVER 218 | 87-94 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
701 Golden State at Chicago Without Durant the Warriors are being discounted by the public. The very same Warriors team who was the best team in the NBA the last two years combined. Sure Durant missing is going to hurt, but now former Running Rebel McCaw gets a chance to shine. Chicago has been terrible defensively and this team hasn’t been playing with much emotion. Playing a team that wants to run and run will get the Bulls players interested in padding stats. The last time these two got together it was 215 points in a blowout. Look for this game to be run and gun as it surpasses the posted total. PLAY OVER |
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03-23-16 | Georgia Tech v. San Diego State UNDER 135 | 56-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
778 Georgia Tech at San Diego State The Yellow Jackets haven’t played outside the Eastern Time Zone since November. This is a very tough trip for Georgia Tech and the Aztecs have sold out in anticipation of this matchup. The total on this game looks a bit low considering what happened in the last games from these two combatants. But keep in mind Georgia Tech played a South Carolina team that suspended six players, so very little defense was played. San Diego State just faced a fast paced high scoring Washington team. The Aztecs are a really tough matchup defensively if you haven’t faced them, and you can bet coach Fisher will have a solid game plan against Georges-Hunt and Smith. We look for a low scoring defensive battle here.PLAY UNDER |
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03-21-16 | Nuggets v. Cavs UNDER 214 | Top | 91-124 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
604 Denver at Cleveland The Cavaliers were just embarrassed at Miami as the defense permitted 122 points, the second worst defensive performance of the year for Cleveland. The worst was when the Cavs allowed Golden State 132. The following game Cleveland held the opposition to just 78 points. In the five games this season Cleveland has permitted 113 points or more, the following game the team allowed just 84, 99, 99, 78 and 96 points. An average of 91.2 points per game. Kevin Love is out tonight which means the offense suffers slightly but the defense improves. We look for the Cavaliers to play with added intensity on the defensive end of the court as Denver struggles mightily putting points on the board.PLAY UNDER |
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01-16-16 | Air Force v. UNLV OVER 138.5 | 64-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
669 Air Force at UNLV |
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12-11-15 | Cavs v. Magic UNDER 197.5 | Top | 111-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
706 Cleveland at Orlando Big scheduling advantage here for the Cavaliers as Orlando returns home from a five game road trip. Cleveland had two days off before facing Portland, had the last two days off, and have three more days off before taking on the Celtics. This is an important week of practice for Cleveland as they attempt to bring Irving and Shumpert back to the lineup. In fact, Iman Shumpert will be making his season debut tonight as JR Smith is out with an illness. That’s a major change in the Cleveland mindset as Shumpert is an excellent defensive player and JR Smith is … JR Smith. The last time these two tangled the game totaled 220 points, but that won’t be the case here. Especially when looking at how poor the Cleveland defense has been as of late. You know that’s been the emphasis at practice this week. With the addition of the ball hawking Shumpert look for the entire team to play with an added defensive intensity here.PLAY UNDER |
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11-09-15 | Blazers v. Nuggets OVER 208 | 104-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
707 Portland at Denver Both teams have an offensive advantage in this game that should play out to be a high scoring affair. Denver has a key injury in the front court that should allow the Blazers to dominate down low. Portland has a strong inside game that can have success here. Last time out the Nuggets used a guard oriented lineup and we expect the same thing here. With Portland off a game last night at home and traveling to Denver and the altitude, it would make sense for the Nuggets to want to get out and run. PLAY OVER |
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05-22-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 196 | 94-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
508 Cleveland at Atlanta |
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04-03-15 | Orlando Magic v. Minnesota Timberwolves OVER 204 | 97-84 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
511 Orlando at Minnesota Two teams playing out the string with a relaxing offseason on the horizon. That means only one thing to us, padding the stats. Neither of these two had any preconceived ideas of competing this season and that has played out. But in the players minds stats matter for future contracts and spots on the roster for next season. The way to accomplish that is to get out and run and pay less attention to defensive sets. We see it all the time not only in hoops but in the NFL as well. The number has been bet up this morning and we agree. We expect a shootout.PLAY OVER |
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03-25-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Orlando Magic UNDER 201.5 | Top | 95-83 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
758 Atlanta at Orlando The last three meetings between these two resulted in less than 200 combined points being scored. Both teams talked about a lack of defense after their most recent losses. Atlanta players spent extra time in the film room viewing the poor defense it has shown since the All-Star break. Players talked about getting back to playing the good team defense it showed in the first half of the season. With both teams stressing defense and all three games this season being low scoring we look for this one to stay substantially under the posted total.PLAY UNDER |
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02-06-15 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 197 | 116-113 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
818 New Orleans at Oklahoma City |
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11-04-14 | Washington Wizards v. New York Knicks OVER 190 | 98-83 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
705 Washington at New York |
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06-12-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Miami Heat UNDER 197.5 | 107-86 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
708 San Antonio at Miami No need to overthink this analysis. Miami down 2-1 and without home court advantage has to win this game to have any realistic shot at another championship. How do they do that? They slow down the Spurs and force them into more of a half court offense. San Antonio moved the ball extremely well last time out and the Heat had no answer. LeBron James didn’t bring the intensity last game that we have grown accustomed to. That won’t happen two games in a row at home. While we feel Miami will win this game we are not about to lay points at this stage of this series. Therefore lets bank on the Heat bringing the defensive effort as the pace slows down in Miami.PLAY UNDER |
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04-23-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 198 | 113-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
729 Dallas at San Antonio Word out of Dallas last night was the Mavericks were working on speeding up the tempo in their series against the Spurs. It wouldn’t hurt to step up the pace considering Dallas has dropped ten straight to San Antonio. But the problem for the Mavericks is that the Spurs are just as good in the open court.Â
San Antonio was the best three point shooting team in the league during the regular season, but the Spurs shot just 3 of 17 in the opening game, thus slowing the scoring pace. With Dallas wanting to run and the scoring options of the Spurs we can see this game flying over the posted total.
PLAY OVER |
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03-24-14 | Indiana Pacers v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 180.5 | Top | 77-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
612 Indiana at Chicago
These teams met just three days ago with Indiana winning at home 91-79. The coaching staffs talked about that game having a playoff type atmosphere and this game likely to play the same with adjustments being made. That means another low scoring affair with both teams trying to intimidate the opposition in what could be a possible playoff preview. Indiana has held 6 of 7 opponents to 94 points or less while the offense has been held to double digits in 9 of the last 11 overall. The Bulls have held 13 of 14 opponents under the century mark. Look for defense to rule the day here as these two prepare for playoff type basketball. PLAY UNDER |
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03-21-14 | Mercer v. Duke OVER 140 | 78-71 | Win | 100 | 21 h 44 m | Show | |
823 Mercer & Duke
Mercer has the ability to score against anyone with 4 of top 5 scorers shooting over 39% from behind the arc. Regardless of the score the Bears will continue to shoot. They permitted just 67.5 ppg this year but against tournament caliber squads they allowed 82 ppg and none of those teams had the offense of Duke. Duke does defend the three very well but this contest isn |
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03-20-14 | Arizona State v. Texas UNDER 143 | 85-87 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 14 m | Show | |
730 Arizona State/Texas Under
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03-02-14 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Orlando Magic OVER 213.5 | 81-92 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
805 Philadelphia at Orlando
The Sixers are just playing out the season after a very promising start. Very few of these players will be in the organization next year so it |
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02-24-14 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 208 | 130-110 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
701 Milwaukee at Philadelphia
Out of all the games on the Monday handicapping card how the hell did we end up with two terrible NBA teams tanking for ping pong balls? The answer is quite simple. Both teams know they have nothing to play for at this stage of the season other than personal statistics. No pressure of having to win and no coaches stressing defense. In the two prior meetings between these teams we saw point totals of 222 not once but twice. It |
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01-28-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Houston Rockets OVER 210.5 | 90-97 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
507 San Antonio at Houston
The Spurs have been sliding a bit as of late losing 3 of 5 after falling short in Miami on Sunday. With three key defensive players out of the lineup the Spurs aging veterans are being exposed. Harden has gone off for 30 points per game against the Spurs since coming over to Houston. In the two previous games this year the Rockets shot 25 of 54 from long range as the Spurs have had severe matchup problems with Houston. And keep in mind that both Green and Leonard are their two best defensive players on the perimeter, and both remain out. Without Splitter underneath the path to the basket for Harden becomes even wider. Coach Popovich is a tremendous in-game coach but we can |
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12-25-13 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Golden State Warriors OVER 206 | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
809 LA Clippers at Golden State
After JJ Redick went down the Clippers struggled a bit, especially missing his outside shooting. But in the last five games since moving Jamal Crawford into the starting lineup the Clips have exploded. Winners of five straight games and producing point totals of 113, 115, 108, 112 and 120. In the only other matchup between these two squads this year 241 points were scored. The Clippers are a very aggressive team that gets to the rim and also goes to the foul line often, scoring when the clock is stopped really helps us here. Golden State is now 2-9 straight up on the season against the Top 10 teams in the league. This is a team that had great success in the playoffs last year and is still resting on their laurels. In the last two weeks the Warriors have lost to the likes of San Antonio, Phoenix and Houston, three likely playoff opponents. The Warriors turn the ball over in 15.5% of possessions which leads to easy points by the opposition. This is one team that you just can |
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11-08-13 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 205 | 79-94 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
508 Cleveland at Philadelphia Under
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05-28-13 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 185.5 | 92-99 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
Miami at Indiana
The closing totals in the first three games of this series were 181 1/2, 182 1/2 and 182. The first game produced 205 points in overtime, game two was 190 and game three 210. Now that the first three have surpassed the total, the posted total as of this writing is 184 1/2. We all know why the zigzag theory has worked so well in the NBA playoffs, going against what you have seen last has been the way to go. With the first three games being high scoring we expect defense to rule the game tonight. Keep in mind that these are two of the strongest defensive teams in the league. Both teams have produced equal or better shooting numbers in this series than in the regular season. Both teams are scoring more in this series than the regular season. How can that possibly be when these are two elite defenses. After Indiana permitted a whopping 114 points last time out the only way they stay competitive here is on the defensive end of the court. The Pacers just don't have the offensive firepower to get into a scoring contest with the Heat. In the games Indiana has played well against Miami this season it has been in lower scoring contests. With the Pacers in a must win situation we look for a huge defensive contest from the host. PLAY UNDER |
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05-18-13 | New York Knicks v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 178.5 | 99-106 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
New York at Indiana
The Pacers are at their best defending the three and forcing opponents inside against the defense and Hibbard. It's worked perfectly in this series and we see no reason for anything to change. New York has really struggled to shoot from the outside especially at Indiana. The later a series goes the lower scoring are the games. New York won last time out but the game was still a low scoring affair. With the Pacers playing at home and dictating the tempo we will look for another low scoring contest. PLAY UNDER |
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05-13-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 184.5 | 97-103 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 40 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City at Memphis
It's looking mighty bleak for the Thunder who won the rebounding battle 51-44 and outscored the Grizzlies in the paint 44-30 along with holding a 23-7 scoring edge in transition in game three. Despite all that they only managed 81 points against this tough Memphis defense. Oklahoma City was able to push the pace a bit at home even without Westbrook but that's not the case in Memphis. The Grizzlies want to muck up the game and beat the Thunder with physical defensive play, something they have been able to accomplish on a regular basis at home this year. The Grizzlies have won 18 of 19 in this building. Oklahoma City needs this game desperately and the only way to have success here is on the defensive end. We expect this game to be much like the last contest with every basket being challenged. PLAY UNDER |
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04-28-13 | New York Knicks v. Boston Celtics OVER 180.5 | 90-97 | Win | 100 | 3 h 23 m | Show | |
New York at Boston
Each of the first three games of this series have been low scoring with the Knicks easily winning by 7, 16 and 14 points. It's clear that the Celtics simply cannot score enough points in the half court game to compete. Doc Rivers is one of the best coaches in the league and nobody knows this better than he does. Therefore we expect the Celtics to change pace here in order to put more points on the board. The totals in this series have consistently been downgraded by a full three points in each and every game. Starting off at 189 in the opener, to 186 1/2 in game two, and 183 1/2 in game three. This line is currently sitting in the 180 1/2 range. Sports betting is not that easy to just continue to play the games under and cash. The zig zag theory is well known with sides but it comes into play here as well. Teams down 3-0 know their season is virtually over. You just don't win four straight games very often against a team you just lost to three straight times. Let's look for the pace to quicken here as the intensity lessens for the Celtics, and the Knicks are more than happy to run. PLAY OVER |
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04-07-13 | New Orleans Hornets v. Phoenix Suns OVER 197.5 | 95-92 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
515 New Orleans at Phoenix
The Hornets have been out of playoff contention for some time now in a season in which they never could get any consistency. Injuries to top players have hurt this team who is better than their given record when at full strength. But now that the end of the season is near we look for individual accomplishments to supersede team goals, which means higher scoring contests. New Orleans has played as a group for the majority of the season which is a testament to the coaching, but you can see the trends the last couple weeks when the Hornets faced a team out of playoff contention. Overall 6 of the last 8 games against non-playoff teams have surpassed the posted total, including a game that stayed under the number by just a single point. Phoenix has already thrown in the towel having lost 12 of 13 games. The mid-season coaching change hasn't mattered and the players have started looking at individual numbers. Overall 6 of the last 7 games have surpassed the posted total by a combined margin of 99 points. We look for more of the same tonight. PLAY OVER |
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04-02-13 | Dallas Mavericks v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 207 | 81-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
766 Dallas at Los Angeles
With Dallas clinging to any hopes of the postseason this is a must win game against a team in their path to the playoffs. That said the value isn't there from the side perspective, but there does remain value towards the under. In a playoff type scenario we look for this game to be tightly contested from a defensive standpoint. In the previous meetings this year we have seen point totals of 202, 204 and 190 yet this number is higher than any of those, despite the meaning of this contest. PLAY UNDER |
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03-11-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 208.5 | 93-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
504 Oklahoma City at San Antonio
Major showdown here between two powerhouses in the Western Conference. When games become more important they also become more tightly played with neither team willing to make a mistake. Oklahoma City comes in here unrested after beating the Celtics yesterday 91-79. When playing unrested against a rested opponent this season 6 of 9 games have stayed under the posted total. In the first two meetings with the Spurs this year the games stayed under the total by 34 and 8 1/2 points. San Antonio without Parker are more likely to take the air out of the ball and slow down the pace. When rested and playing an unrested foe 5 of 7 contests have stayed under for the Spurs. After allowing 136 points to Portland last time out you know this area will be a major form of discussion in game preparation. PLAY UNDER |
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02-23-13 | Georgetown v. Syracuse UNDER 124 | 57-46 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
550 Georgetown at Syracuse
Huge game in Big East action for these two teams who rely on defense as a staple of their game. We like to play these type of contests under the total as every possession is so meaningful for both teams and very often squads play very tight in this situation. It also helps us that the last time each of these two squads took the floor they put up peak offensive performances, Georgetown scoring 90 against DePaul and the Orange producing 84 vs Providence. When looking at how these teams do against good basketball teams in the second half of the season we see Georgetown going under 20 of 31 games the last three seasons and Syracuse doing so in 23 of 40 games during the same time span. We look for more of the same here. PLAY UNDER |
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02-22-13 | Chicago Bulls v. Charlotte Bobcats UNDER 185.5 | 105-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
808 Chicago at Charlotte
Two hungry teams do battle tonight as both squads are looking for a needed victory. The battered Bulls have dropped 5 of 7 games and are off a 19 point blowout at the hands of Miami. Chicago has now failed to reach the century mark in eight straight contests and the first two meetings in this season series resulted in 178 and 172 points being scored. With Oklahoma City on deck this is a very important game for the Bulls and this team wins with defense. Charlotte once again failed to show up after a victory as the Bobcats are now 3-10 ATS on the season after a win. They are also just 7-16 ATS when facing an opponent off a loss. While that would point us to Chicago in most cases we can't lay the inflated number because of the Chicago lack of offense. Therefore we will look for defense to rule the roost here as the Bulls clamp down on this questionable Bobcat scoring unit. PLAY UNDER |
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02-20-13 | Colorado St v. UNLV UNDER 141.5 | 59-61 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
788 Colorado State at UNLV
The Rams will run when playing teams with lesser talent but they slow the pace when taking on the upper half of the Mountain West Conference. Just take a look at recent play against New Mexico, UNLV and San Diego State. Total points scored of 127, 127 and 126. Colorado State is a team that rebounds the ball terrifically and makes you shoot the ball from distance in order to beat them. They are huge inside so the opposition doesn't get many easy baskets. All three of their main competitors in this conference lack shooting touch which is why the Rams are a major match-up problem. The Rebels just played its most intense game of the season against San Diego State and still didn't cover the spread in a 2 point home victory. Coach Fisher decided to run with the Rebels which falls right into the hands of the opposition. Colorado State won't make that same mistake. UNLV has really struggled as of late getting fast break points and it doesn't rebound well enough to get out on the break. We expect the Rams to dominate the glass and force the Rebels to shoot its way to victory. PLAY UNDER |
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02-16-13 | San Diego St v. UNLV UNDER 136 | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
646 San Diego State at UNLV
The first meeting this season saw 90 points being scored in the first half as our over play easily cashed in an 82-75 UNLV road victory. In watching that game it was clear that the Aztecs did not have the athletes to run with the Rebels. At halftime coach Fisher slowed down the pace and San Diego State got back into the game. Because of that we will switch course and look for San Diego State to slow the pace from the start as this game stays under the posted total. UNLV hasn't had a good offensive game since that matchup as the entire conference knows they can't let the Rebels run. Since that time UNLV's fast break points have been nonexistent as the opposition forces the Rebels to shoot from the outside. UNLV simply does not have the personnel to hit from deep and their best perimeter shooter was injured last time out at Air Force. San Diego State is known for getting up and down the court but Steve Fisher is too good a coach to fall into that situation again against these Rebels. Look for the Aztecs to play similarly to how they came out in the second half of the previous game. PLAY UNDER |
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02-09-13 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 188 | 76-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
504 Charlotte at Philadelphia
Charlotte is on a 2-11 over/under run when installed as road underdogs. After giving everything it had last night hosting the Lakers we can't see the Bobcats suddenly finding an offensive rhythm. Charlotte has failed to reach 98 points in six straight games and Philadelphia is playing lights out defense. The last four 76ers games have gone under by margins of 23, 49, 30 and 13 1/2 points. The opposition in those match ups scored 88, 61, 80 and 84 points. The Bobcats just don't have the weapons to make this a track meet. PLAY UNDER Top Opinions: Denver/Cleveland Over Utah/Sacramento Under |
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02-01-13 | Orlando Magic v. Boston Celtics OVER 189 | Top | 84-97 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
805 Orlando at Boston
The Magic suffered a major injury when its only good defensive post player Glen Big Baby Davis went down with a season ending injury against New York. When he was out for 11 games earlier the Magic's defensive rating was worse by 1.7 points per 100 possessions. In turn the team fared better offensively in his absence. Without Rondo Boston's totals will be lower because he was the main option on offense. But the Celtics have players on this team who have been major contributors offensively in the past. We expect the offense to have an easy time here without much of an interior defense from Orlando. The last time these two played we saw 204 points scored in regulation in a 116-110 overtime win for the CEltics. We look for another high scoring affair here. PLAY OVER |
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01-16-13 | UNLV v. San Diego St OVER 134 | Top | 82-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
801 UNLV at San Diego State
These two teams have really had some battles over the years with many games being decided in the closing minutes. But the makeup of the two teams is a bit different this year with offensive edges that can be exploited. UNLV for the first time in years has talented big men. They have the ability to take advantage of a smaller and less potent rebounding team in San Diego State. Also the Rebels have really struggled against the zone but that's not the style of play coach Fisher and his Aztecs prefer. San Diego State likes the playground style of basketball which fits right in with the way the Rebels want to play. Get out and run instead of half court sets. San Diego State has a major advantage in its backcourt as the Aztecs are extremely talented in that regard and its small forward could be the best player on the court. It will be tough for the Rebels questionable guards to keep up with San Diego State. While past games have tended to be low scoring these teams are far different from the past. Look for a fast paced game with both teams getting to the free throw line. This line is based on history and we take advantage. PLAY OVER |
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12-22-12 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Houston Rockets UNDER 197.5 | 96-121 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
508 Memphis at Houston
The Memphis Grizzlies are playing slow paced tough defensive basketball games. In 12 of the last 13 contests they have stayed under the posted total with the lone over coming by just 2 1/2 points. After playing last night the last thing Memphis wants to do is run with the fastest paced team in the league. When facing the top three paced teams in the NBA this year Memphis has stayed under the posted total all three times by margins of 16, 22 1/2 and 15 1/2 points. In four unrested games the Grizzlies stayed under the posted number each time. PLAY UNDER |
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12-14-12 | Boston Celtics v. Houston Rockets UNDER 206 | Top | 89-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH
812 Boston at Houston Boston is 3-8 to the Under in regulation when the total is set at 190 or higher. This is the first time all season a total has been set at over 200. When playing against teams with high pace ratings Boston has gone Under against Dallas by 5, Under against San Antonio by 19 and Under against Milwaukee by 9 1/2, 6 and 17. Houston plays the fastest pace in the NBA and coach Rivers knows he can't compete against Houston playing the Rockets fast paced game. Off a double overtime win over Dallas on Wednesday and with another game tomorrow at San Antonio we look for the Celtics to severely slow the pace. PLAY UNDER |
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12-07-12 | Washington Wizards v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 192.5 | 95-104 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
806 Washington at Atlanta
These two clubs just played on the 21st and Atlanta won 101-100 in overtime. The total on that game was set at 185 1/2 and the game was tied at 90 at the end of regulation. Since that game the two teams have combined to go over the total 7 of 13 games. Washington road games average 188.3 ppg while Atlanta home games average 193.6, both below the league average of just about 195 ppg. So why is this line opening much higher than the earlier matchup? We feel a main reason is the recent opponents for the Hawks. Denver, Cleveland, Charlotte twice and the LA Clippers all play at a higher pace than these Wizards. Washington ranks 23rd in the league in pace while each of the other opponents are all in the Top 17. Atlanta has played twice this season in the first game of a back to back situation, in those two games the final score was a combined 29 1/2 points below the posted total. With the Hawks in Memphis tomorrow we can see Atlanta slowing the pace here, and you can bet after being forced to overtime last game against the Wizards defense will be emphasized. PLAY UNDER |
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12-01-12 | Brooklyn Nets v. Miami Heat OVER 193 | 89-102 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
Brooklyn at Miami
The last time these two met the Heat pounded the Nets 103-73 when Brooklyn was just getting their footing early in the season. It was by far the worst offensive output for the Nets on the year. Now Brooklyn has scored 90 or better in 8 of 9 games, only once playing unrested. Miami home games are averaging 214.7 points per game. The Heat really like to run at home when facing an unrested opponent. Brooklyn played last night in Orlando. At home against unrested foes Miami games have surpassed the posted total by 36, 20, 20 1/2 and 3 points. The Heat doesn't play again until Tuesday against Washington, so they don't need to worry about fatigue in this contest. PLAY OVER |
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11-28-12 | San Antonio Spurs v. Orlando Magic UNDER 197.5 | 110-89 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
704 San Antonio at Orlando
The Spurs have won the first four games of this extended road trip including blowing out Washington on Monday unrested. The team had 13 players on the court for at least seven minutes which just proves how deep and talented this squad is. But San Antonio has a huge statement game tomorrow in Miami as they end the trip with its most difficult game. Orlando has played a slower pace at home against quality opposition. The coaching staff has been very easy to read this season as they let the team run at home when facing the likes of Phoenix, Detroit and Cleveland. But when stepping up in class here and when playing on the road Orlando relies on defense and a slower pace. Orlando has had the last two days off in order to put in a game plan, and you know for a fact that strategy wasn't to get out and run with the Spurs. Against superior opposition Denver, Brooklyn and New York, the Magic played conservatively, we expect the same tonight. PLAY UNDER |
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11-23-12 | New York Knicks v. Houston Rockets OVER 196.5 | 103-131 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
New York at Houston
When the Rockets have played a team ranked in the top 10 in the league in offensive efficiency the games have been very high scoring, and the Knicks lead the league in that category. The Miami game surpassed the total by 28 1/2 points, the Lakers game by 21 1/2 points, and Portland by 24. The only game against a high efficiency team that did not go over was against Memphis. We expect the pace to be especially high for the Rockets since the ball will be in the hands of Jeremy Lin who has special motivation after the Knicks let him go in the offseason, as they refused to match the Rockets contract offer. New York has scored in bunches against any team willing to run with them, and with all the new additions to this Rockets team they are having a hard time coming together defensively. Let's look for an offensive explosion from both teams as this one sails over the posted total. PLAY OVER |
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11-20-12 | New York Knicks v. New Orleans Hornets UNDER 189 | 102-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
704 New York at New Orleans
The Knicks have been winning this year by slowing pace and playing defense, two things not seen very often in the Big Apple. The Knicks are 28th out of the 30 NBA teams in pace and they have held 5 of 8 opponents to less than 90 points. Last time out they held a similar struggling offensive team to the Hornets, the Pacers, to only 76 points. New Orleans has surpassed the posted total by 38 1/2, 18 1/2, 12 and 25 points the last four games. The only victory in that span was against the Charlotte Bobcats. New Orleans doesn't have an offense that can get away with playing up and down basketball, as they still have questionable scoring talent. While the Knicks prefer a slower paced game the last four Hornets opponents prefer getting out and running. That's why those clubs rank 1st, 10th, 4th and 7th in the league in pace. New Orleans won't have to run the court here which plays to their advantage. While we would love to grab a full 7 in this contest with the host, the number isn't available at this writing. Instead we will use the same logic to tackle the total which is actually set higher than 3 of those last 4 games against running clubs. PLAY UNDER |
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11-03-12 | Sacramento Kings v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 191 | 98-106 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
504 Sacramento at Indiana
Kings coaching staff has put out the word, play defense or sit the bench. The pace has slowed and the team does look like a better stop unit early on. Indiana survived at Toronto because of an offensive implosion by the Raptors. The Pacers scored 90 points in that game. They followed that up with an 89 point outburst at Charlotte, the worst team in the league last year by far. With both offenses underperforming and Indiana off an embarrassing loss we look for defense to be the key tonight. PLAY UNDER |
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05-26-12 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Boston Celtics OVER 170 | 75-85 | Loss | -101 | 34 h 35 m | Show | |
Philadelphia at Boston
Because of the low scoring game six this total has been adjusted by an amazing 5 points from the previous game. These two teams are averaging 178 points in this series yet this total is sitting at 170 as this analysis is written. Neither team has shot well from behind the arc and yet these teams have still put points on the board. This total is the lowest posted total in the entire series, yet we all know neither team will be willing to concede anything in the final minutes. That means more fouling and more free throws, which also leads to more scoring. We simply can't see how we don't see a bounce back in offense here, especially considering the quotes from the Boston coaching staff. PLAY OVER |
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05-04-12 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Denver Nuggets OVER 204 | 84-99 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
Los Angeles at Denver
It worked for us last time out and we expect the pace to be quicker today as Denver tries to force the Lakers out of their preferred half court game. The Denver players talked about it before the last game and they had success running late as they made a game of it. Now in elevation and back at home we expect Denver to push the pace. Los Angeles is able to dictate the flow at home but that hasn't been the case away from home. Look for both teams to have offensive success and Denver to find easier baskets in their own arena. PLAY OVER |
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05-02-12 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 185 | 98-105 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 19 m | Show | |
LA Clippers at Memphis
The closing total in the first game of the series was 183 1/2 and the lines makers opened this game at 186 1/2 until early smart action drove it down to the current 185 number. We feel there is still plenty of value in this number as the Grizzlies shot lights out from behind the arc last game, and that's not likely to happen again. Memphis will really be fired up defensively after allowing the Clippers to shoot 50% from the field and post the biggest comeback in LA Clipper history. Memphis has held the opposition to double digits in 19 of 21 games so they know how to defend. In a game they must have after blowing what many would have considered an insurmountable lead, we expect defense to be the calling card for both teams on Wednesday. PLAY UNDER |
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05-01-12 | Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Lakers OVER 200 | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
Denver at LA Lakers
We believe the betting markets have made too much to an adjustment for game two. In the opening contest the game was totaled at 203 and now we are seeing 200's here after a 191 output in the opener. But keep in mind that Denver shot only 35.6% from the field and the Lakers blocked a whopping 15 shots. Los Angeles also only shot 15 free throws in that game, a rarity for a home contest with Kobe Bryant healthy. The Denver players openly said they needed to beat Bynum down the court in order to get easier scores. That means more fast break points for Denver and more possessions in the game. We expect more of an open offensive contest as this one flies over the posted total. PLAY OVER |
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04-29-12 | Boston Celtics v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 179.5 | 74-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Boston at Atlanta
These two teams have been very competitive this season with final point margins being 5, 3 and 2 points in overtime. The current line on this game points to the expected closeness of this series. So from a side angle we don't see much of an edge. Where we do see an edge is in the total. Despite the linesmaker posting a total of less than 180 we still feel the under has a lot of value. In the three meetings the total points scored were 155, 174 in overtime and 189. But keep in mind in that final matchup of 189 not a single player in Boston's Big Four played a single minute. Therefore in our opinion that game can be thrown completely out of the equation. The posted totals in the first two games were right in line with todays mark with 182 and 179 1/2 being the goals. With a very similar number set here in a playoff game we feel the line is still too high. PLAY UNDER |
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04-28-12 | New York Knicks v. Miami Heat UNDER 186.5 | 67-100 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
New York at Miami
With this abbreviated NBA schedule it was tougher than ever to gauge how teams would perform on any given day. You had to handicap the schedule just as much as the team. A good way to lesson the variability is checking to see how teams performed when both were rested. With so many back to back to back and four games in five day occurrences you are sure to not get 100% effort every game. When two teams enter a contest rested you for the most part can be assured of a better effort. In looking at this matchup we found that in games when both teams were rested the Knicks went 14-20 to the Under while the Heat were 12-29 to the Under. New York was a much better defensive team after the coaching move and the Heat are simply a much better defensive team that struggles many times offensively. When installed as a home favorite Miami is on a 4-15 Under run since Mid-January. In two home games against the Knicks the final scores were 190 and 188 points, both before the coaching change which emphasized defense. We look for a low scoring contest here. PLAY UNDER |
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03-31-12 | Louisville v. Kentucky UNDER 137 | Top | 61-69 | Win | 100 | 55 h 15 m | Show |
Louisville & Kentucky
The Wildcats have been running the opposition out of the building in this tournament and it makes a great deal of sense. If you have the more talented team your advantage grows with every extra possession. But Louisville and the coaching staff are way too smart to fall into that trap. They know the way to beat Kentucky is to limit opportunities and Louisville's ugly offensive play only helps the cause. This game is being played in The Superdome which provides unique sight lines, therefore producing lower scoring games. With the recent Kentucky contests sailing over the posted total the linemakers have been forced to post a higher line as they expect over action. With the general public not knowing the true value of the total they will in turn bet the over which gives us extra value on playing this one under the posted total. PLAY UNDER |
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03-27-12 | Atlanta Hawks v. Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 196.5 | 101-108 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
Atlanta at Milwaukee
Talk about tired legs. The Hawks are playing their 4th game in 5 days off a 4 overtime contest on Sunday against the Jazz. That's like virtually playing 4 1/2 games in 5 days with the final scores being decided by 9, 3 and 6 in 4 overtimes. That's a great deal of high intensity minutes played by the Hawks. To make matters worse all four games will be played with travel involved. Milwaukee will also look to slow the pace as this is their 5th game in 6 days before a long deserved two day break before traveling to Cleveland. This game could also feature a playoff type intensity as both teams look to bolster their playoff seeding, something to look at as this shortened season winds down. PLAY UNDER |
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03-24-12 | Florida v. Louisville OVER 131.5 | Top | 68-72 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
Florida & Louisville
Short and sweet analysis on this one. We had the under in the last Louisville game as the contest was a brick fest and the game easily went under the number. The public saw the Spartans completely collapse offensively against this solid Louisville defense. That was a Michigan State team that many felt was heading back to the Final Four. Now the line is very reasonable to take a look at the over in this game because of the over-adjustment and the go against the public line of thinking. Florida has a much better shooting team from long range than anyone the Cardinals have played thus far in the tournament. The Gators are also a team that wants to get out and run, which should provide easier baskets. We take advantage of recent results and look for this game to fly over the posted total. PLAY OVER |
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03-22-12 | Louisville v. Michigan State UNDER 125.5 | 57-44 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
Louisville & Michigan State
Really wanted to play the Spartans here but never saw the line we were looking for. Thought about the money line but again with the side going up 1/2 point we were never able to get a qualifying money line play. So instead we will attack this game where we do believe we have value and that is with the total. Louisville is one of the worst shooting teams in college basketball but they play tremendous defense. The Cardinals rank 2nd in the nation in defensive efficiency while the Spartans rank 3rd. But it's the Louisville offense that we take advantage of here as they don't have the depth to make this a faster paced game. In our opinion it's a terrible offensive match-up for the Cardinals and Michigan State will have their own problems scoring against this Louisville press. The line has been bet up a point so the way we will play this one in under the total. PLAY UNDER |
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03-04-12 | Miami Heat v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 192.5 | 83-93 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
Miami at LA Lakers
Both teams come into this game rested which should help the defenses. On the season 12 of 20 Miami games with both teams rested went under, while 8 of 17 Lakers games did the same. The Lakers have Detroit, Washington and Minnesota on deck while Miami has New Jersey up next. Therefore this is by far the most important contest on the schedule for these two. The earlier meeting this season resulted in a 98-87 Heat victory with the game going under by 7 points. Both teams were rested before that contest. With the hard foul by Wade on Bryant ramping up the intensity, we look for a playoff type defensive struggle. PLAY UNDER |
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02-29-12 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. New York Knicks UNDER 193 | 103-120 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
Cleveland at New York
In the past when Anderson Varejao was injured the Cleveland defense suffered badly, but not this season as the Cavs have continued to play solid defense in his absence. That's great news going forward when the young dynamo returns to action. But it also helps us tonight as we expect Cleveland to hold its own against this New York offense still trying to make the pieces fit after Linsanity has taken the city by storm. On the season 6 of 9 games playing unrested have gone under for the Cavaliers as they continue to be a solid surprise with its young roster. New York is known for its offensive past but this year its all about a slower pace and low scoring affairs. Amazingly this season New York has stayed under the posted total in 17 of 20 games when installed as favorites. Even more impressive is 15 of the last 16 in that role have failed to reach the posted total. As a home favorite 10 of the last 11 games have stayed under the number and in the only other meeting this year with Cleveland the two teams totaled 172 points, 24 below the posted total. Yesterday 67% of the games stayed under the posted total with rested clubs, we expect more of the same here. PLAY UNDER |
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02-28-12 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Detroit Pistons UNDER 183 | 97-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
Philadelphia at Detroit
The Sixers have struggled as of late because its defense hasn't been nearly as successful as early in the season. After having five days off we expect defense to be the focus once again for the 76ers. It's picked up a bit of late as four straight games have stayed under the posted total. As a favorite 19 of 26 games have stayed below the posted total this season for Philadelphia. In the two prior meetings with Detroit the games went under by margins of 17 and 8 points, scoring just 169 points twice in the process. Detroit has trended higher scoring as of late but they have played a lot of young teams looking to push the pace. That's not likely the situation tonight as Philadelphia knows in order to win they must keep the pace to a crawl. Overall 12 of 20 Detroit games have stayed under the total when neither team has had a rest advantage which will be the case tonight. We look for another low scoring affair. PLAY UNDER |
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02-21-12 | San Antonio Spurs v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 190 | 97-137 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
San Antonio at Portland
The Spurs are playing its eighth road game in a nine game road trip tonight in Portland. It's the yearly rodeo trip and it's been very successful once again for Spurs backers. San Antonio has won every game thus far posting a 5-1-1 spread mark. San Antonio played last night at Utah and won 106-102. Now they play unrested against the unrested Blazers. This season when playing unrested against an unrested foe 4 of 6 games have stayed under the total for the Spurs. The Blazers are playing it's sixth game in the last eight days. They also played last night in Los Angeles losing to the Lakers 103-92. When unrested playing an unrested opponent 5 of 6 games have stayed under the posted total for the Blazers. With both teams slowing the pace in this situation and with both on tired legs we can't see either team looking to run tonight. The prior meeting this season resulted in 182 points, a full 13 points below the closing total. We look for another strong defensive effort. PLAY UNDER |
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02-11-12 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 185 | 99-84 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
Philadelphia at Cleveland
The Sixers are coming off a brutal schedule having faced in order Orlando, Chicago, Miami, Atlanta, the LA Lakers, San Antonio and the LA Clippers. They are playing their third game in four days having gone head to head with the Clippers last night in a 78-77 defeat. We can't see the Sixers having much energy tonight and they already prefer the slower pace. Off a straight up loss Philadelphia has stayed under the posted number the next game 6 of 8 contests. Cleveland is playing their fourth game in five days having gone to overtime last night against the Bucks. The Cavaliers are already playing short handed with Parker, Thompson and Irving in and out of the daily lineup. The likely rookie of the year will be out again tonight as he recovers from a concussion. That leaves a tired team with many players not used to the minutes they have been receiving as of late. Which also should lead to a slower paced game. PLAY UNDER |
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02-07-12 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Boston Celtics UNDER 177 | Top | 84-94 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
Charlotte at Boston
The Bobcats are by far the worst team in the league right now as they are decimated by injuries and they lack competitive talent. Charlotte has dropped 17 of 18 games and the coaching staff knows the only way to be competitive is to slow down the game. By milking the clock the Bobcats can remain somewhat competitive, especially on the road where 9 of the last 10 games have stayed under the posted total. Boston has won 8 of 9 games with the only loss coming by a single point. There is little doubt from the Celtic brass that they will win this game, and with a huge game on deck against the hated LA Lakers we can see Boston just trying to get out of this game healthy. Overall 9 of 11 Boston home games have stayed under the posted total with the two overs coming by just 4 1/2 and 2 1/2 points. In home games where both teams are rested 8 of 9 occurrences have gone under. We look for a slow paced low scoring game tonight. PLAY UNDER |
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02-06-12 | Phoenix Suns v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 188 | Top | 99-90 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
Phoenix at Atlanta
The Suns are an aging team that doesn't push the pace as in previous seasons. That's especially true when playing on the road. In the road underdog role 9 of 12 games have stayed under the posted total. That mark improves to 8 of 10 when Phoenix is rested. This total is currently sitting in the 188 range which is a bit high considering the Sun's pace against an Eastern Conference squad. Overall 7 of the last 10 Phoenix games have stayed under this posted total while the Hawks have gone under this number to the tune of 7-2-1 the last ten games. Atlanta is off back to back home losses allowing 98 and 96 points in the process. We can see the Hawks bringing a strong defense tonight. Overall 7 of 10 Atlanta home games have stayed under this posted number. This line suggests the Suns will push the pace but we've seen no reason for that to occur. PLAY UNDER |
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02-01-12 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 184 | 68-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
Charlotte at Portland
With the latest injuries to the Bobcats it's clear that this is currently the worst team in the league. So what should a team with the worst personnel do? Slow down the game and limit possessions. That's exactly what Charlotte has done as of late in the road underdog role. The last four games in that role have gone under the posted total by margins of 1, 21, 25 and 8 1/2 points. As a double digit dog this season Charlotte has stayed under the number in 6 of 9 games including 5 of 6 with one game going over by 1/2 point. When unrested the Bobcats have stayed below the total in 5 of their last 7 games. Portland has to travel to Sacramento tomorrow so we expect limited minutes from the starters. The Blazers have gone under this posted total in 8 of their last 11 contests. As a home favorite they have stayed under the posted total by margins of 13, 5 1/2 and 4 1/2 the last three occurrences. As a double digit favorite Blazers games went under both times by a combined margin of 20 points. PLAY UNDER |
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