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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-18-21 | Indians v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
924 Cleveland at LA Angels Listed Plesac & Heaney The Indians have a wRC+ of 78 on the season vs left handed pitching. The Angels are a 105 wRC+ vs right-handed starters, but they will be without their best hitter. Plesac has been terrific all season, but especially as of late with game scores of 69, 83, 65 and 60 entering this contest. Heaney has been inconsistent, but has still had success. We can’t see this weak hitting Cleveland lineup having too much success in this one. PLAY UNDER |
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05-16-21 | Nationals v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 30 m | Show | |
910 Washington at Arizona Action These two have combined for 15 and 19 runs the past two days. But we feel the pitching will rule the day here. Each team has had two big offensive games their last ten, but the vast majority of the time these offenses have struggled. The other eight games for the Nationals had two runs scored four times, and none more than five in a game. The Diamondbacks had six of eight with scoring of two runs or less. Washington ranks 22nd in wRC+ vs righties starters, and Arizona comes in 19th in the same category. No reason to expect another high scoring affair. PLAY UNDER |
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05-15-21 | Braves v. Brewers UNDER 8 | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
954 Atlanta at Milwaukee Listed Anderson & Anderson Sounds like a lawyers office with Anderson vs Anderson on the Saturday slate. The Braves rank 29th on the season vs lefties with a 66 wRC+. The Brewers have struggled vs righties with a 76 wRC+, also ranking 29th in baseball. Both pitchers have been league average or better this season, with both ERA’s under four. After scoring nine last night, let’s look for a lower scoring affair. PLAY UNDER |
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05-11-21 | Rangers v. Giants OVER 8 | 2-4 | Loss | -118 | 2 h 56 m | Show | |
971 Texas at San Francisco Listed Lyles & Webb Both teams rank in the Top 10 in wRC+ this season vs righties. Neither pitcher has been effective with ERA’s of 7.09 for Lyles and 5.34 for Webb. Logan Webb has one start all season better than league average, Lyles has accomplished that just twice. After a low scoring affair with two much better starters yesterday, the bats shine tonight by the bay. PLAY OVER |
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05-04-21 | Indians v. Royals UNDER 9 | 7-3 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
922 Cleveland at Kansas City Listed Henkes & Minor Both teams have struggled vs lefties this year, with KC posting a 84 wRC+, and the Tribe a 90 wRC+ vs southpaws. In his two previous starts against Cleveland Mike Minor has a 71 average game score with a 0.60 ERA. The Royals are 17-3 to the under vs lefty starters the past two seasons. PLAY UNDER |
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04-29-21 | Phillies v. Cardinals UNDER 7 | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 1 h 19 m | Show | |
952 Philadelphia at St Louis Listed Nola and Kim Kim has allowed just 3 earned runs in 23.2 innings of work in his short career at home here in St Louis. Because of the terrible injury to Brice Harper this Phillies offense is loaded with bench players. After the top four hitters we are seeing Herrera, Kingery, Quinn and Maton hitting above the pitcher. That is a very weak lineup that can be pitched around. In his last seven starts Kim has an average game score of 58. Aaron Nola has owned the Cardinals as of late with an average game score of 70 in his last five against them, with a 1.78 ERA. His last seven starts overall have an average game score of 56. After scoring 11 and 13 runs the past two games, it’s time for the pitching to shine. PLAY UNDER |
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04-28-21 | Cubs v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 0-10 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
906 Chicago at Atlanta Listed Hendricks & Ynoa The Cubs enter this game with a 91 wRC+ on the season. Atlanta comes in at 98, an average score would be 100, so both offenses have underperformed. These pitchers have faced this opponent once already this year with bad results. Hendricks had a 19 game score allowing seven earned runs in only four innings. Ynoa had a 28 game score allowing six earned runs in four innings. But both of those games have been outliers on the season resumes. The other Hendricks starts had game scores of 40, 69 and 57. The other Ynoa starts were 67, 71 and 64. Both these starters are much better than what they showed against these hitters earlier. With neither team knocking the cover off the ball, we look for a solid pitchers duel. PLAY UNDER |
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04-20-21 | Cardinals v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
903 St Louis at Washington Listed Wainwright & Corbin Both of these starters have really struggled in the early part of the season. Wainwright has had game scores of 20, 57 and 48. The Cardinals are just 2-5 his last seven starts. Corbin has been even worse. With game scores of 29 and 3 in his only two starts. Washington has now lost seven straight Corbin starts dating back to last year. He was great in 2019 but in the past two seasons he has allowed 49 earned runs in 72 innings of work. He is allowing a whopping 52% hard hit rate, to go along with a 17.5 BB%. These two teams rank 11th and 13th on the season in hard hit % offensively. We look for this to be a high scoring affair. PLAY OVER |
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04-14-21 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 10 | 4-5 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 26 m | Show | |
915 NY Yankees at Toronto Listed Kluber & Stripling Two pitchers we want to fade pitching against each other in an offensive positive ballpark. As a lifetime Indians fan we have always loved Corey Kluber. When healthy he was a bulldog, and a pitcher we often backed. But because of freak injuries he is just a shell of himself. We saw both his earlier starts and in neither game did he look like the same pitcher as he was in Cleveland. He has an average game score of 40 this year with a SO to BB ration of 8 to 5. He doesn’t have the same control as what he did in the past, and for a guy who relied on hitting the corners, he just doesn’t have that ability. We talked about Ross Stripling in his last start. He has been bombed by teams in the American League, and yet he’s in the Blue Jays rotation pitching in the most offensively dominant division in baseball. While neither team has gotten off to a hot start offensively, that all changes this afternoon. PLAY OVER |
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04-08-21 | Royals v. White Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
914 Kansas City at Chicago WS Keller & Lynn In 2020 the Royals had a wRC+ of 79 on the road vs righties, Chicago had a wRC+ of 111 hosting righties. Big fan of both these pitchers as in our mind they never get enough attention for their success. Brad Keller has a 56 average game score his last five starts against the Sox, all within the past two seasons. Lance Lynn has had similar success against the Royals, with a 55 average game score the past five starts. Keller was crushed in his first start of the season, allowing six earned runs in only 1.1 innings. Last year he had three starts that were worse than the league average 50 game score. In his following starts he put up game scores of 66, 78 and 69. In June on in 2019 after a league average or worse performance his game scores were 56, 65, 71, 77, 50, and 57. Expect a big bounce back from Keller as these two go head to head in a great pitching performance. PLAY UNDER |
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04-07-21 | Royals v. Indians UNDER 8 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 31 m | Show | |
970 Kansas City at Cleveland Junis & Bieber In 2020 the Royals had a 79 wRC+ on the road vs righties, Cleveland had an 85 wRC+ hosting righties. The Royals have gotten off to a hot hitting start with a wRC+ on the season of 147, tied for third in baseball. But while we like this young hitting team, they will be facing the reigning Cy Young Winner on Wednesday. Shane Bieber has produced game scores of 75, 77 and 61 his last three starts against KC. In his opening day start in the snow of Detroit he had a 59 wRC+. Keep in mind league average is 50. The Indians have an 84 wRC+ so far this season. That’s 16% worst than a league average team. The Indians have four good major league hitters, and plenty of question marks. We can’t see either team scoring more than four runs in this contest. PLAY UNDER |
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03-30-21 | USC v. Gonzaga UNDER 153.5 | Top | 66-85 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
658 USC & Gonzaga Can’t wait for this one as we expect it to be a defensive dog fight. USC ranks 8th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and 7th in defensive effective field goal percentage. This team leads the nation in defending two point baskets at 41.5%. USC is also 231st in pace, so they should be able to slow down the Zags fast break. Both teams are in the top 40 in defensive free throw rate, as neither puts the opponent on the line. Gonzaga is a team that wants to get out and run, ranking 1st in two point field goal percentage. They have yet to face any opponent this season that is anywhere near as strong as the Trojans around the basket. This is just a bad matchup for Gonzaga, but their elite talent will likely have them advance. But we look for a much slower pace than we have seen the Zags play thus far. PLAY UNDER |
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03-15-21 | Canadiens v. Jets OVER 5.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 13 m | Show | |
13 Montreal at Winnipeg In 5x5 G+-/60 we find Montreal ranking 1st and Winnipeg 15th. In xG/60 the Canadiens are +0.56 and the Jets -0.34. So a substantial advantage for the visitor. On the Power Play the Canadiens rank 12th and the Jets 10th in G+-/60. In xG/60 Montreal is +5.88, and Winnipeg +5.66. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Montreal ranks 10th and Winnipeg 16th. In xG/60 we find the Canadiens -6.07, and the Jets -6.23. The line on this game is about where we made it, but the total has our interest. This Montreal team is the best in the league scoring 5x5. Both teams have done well offensively, with neither very proficient on the penalty kill. Let’s look for a shootout. PLAY OVER |
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02-26-21 | Kings v. Pistons OVER 227.5 | 110-107 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
531 Sacramento at Detroit The Kings are riding a nine game losing streak, and are ending a five game road trip. The last four games they allowed 140, 127, 128 and 122 points. And oh yeah, they are unrested after playing in New York last night. Detroit returns home after its own five game road trek. Wednesday in New Orleans the Pelicans ran them to death and they faded in the fourth quarter. The Pistons coaching staff has said they are going to run the Kings as much as possible tonight, as they finally have the rested legs. With this being a high paced game we look for points to be plenty. PLAY OVER |
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02-07-21 | Chiefs v. Bucs OVER 56 | 9-31 | Loss | -103 | 51 h 18 m | Show | |
101 Kansas City at Tampa Bay Super Bowls are tough to handicap with the two weeks between games and all the hoopla. But we will do our best to try to provide youth a winner. In our opinion the side outcome is a tossup. Kansas City has the better offense, Tampa Bay the better defense. The only concern we have with the Chiefs is the weak offensive line. Because of that and the Buccaneers strong defensive run stoppage, we think we have some value in the total. Kansas City has an elite quarterback and terrific receivers. Andy Reid is one of the top coaches in the league, and he’s been money in the bank with extra time to prepare. Therefore we can expect the Chiefs to virtually abandon the running attack. That means short quick throws from the pocket for Kansas City. It’s the best way to take advantage of this Buccaneers defense. In turn, look for Tampa Bay to try to match the Chiefs on the scoreboard by doing much of the same. Unlike a regular season game where you may let up on a team in case you play them later, the pressure will be constant from the team in the lead. We are well aware that 6 of the 7 Super Bowl games with totals in the 50’s have gone under. But that only gives us additional value here. PLAY OVER L Bell under rushing yards Mahomes pass attempts over Second half more points than first No missed pat |
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02-03-21 | Wizards v. Heat UNDER 229 | 103-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
566 Washington at Miami Both teams are coming off embarrassing defensive performances. In fact, Washington has permitted 146 and 132 the past two games. Each team talked about doing a much better job on the defensive end entering tonight. The Heat rank 25th offensively on the season, but even worse the past two weeks at 29th. Defensively Miami is 19th defensively, but 15th the past two weeks. Washington is 12th offensively on the season, but just 24th the past 14 days. The defense is 28th overall and 29th as of late. With both teams desperate for a win we look for the increased defensive presence to be the key. PLAY UNDER |
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01-21-21 | Lakers v. Bucks UNDER 229 | 113-106 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
524 LA Lakers at Milwaukee These two teams have played the weakest defensive strength of schedules in the league. So their offensive numbers are a bit inflated coming into this matchup. The Bucks defensive possession length is 14.8 seconds, which is the highest in the league. Neither team draws a lot of fouls and these are the two top teams in defensive free throw rate. So scoring with the clock stopped won’t be much of a factor. The Lakers lead the NBA in defensive points per possession, and both squads are off a rare loss. Look for this game to have extra intensity as it stays well below the posted total. PLAY UNDER |
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01-17-21 | Browns v. Chiefs OVER 57 | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -104 | 26 h 53 m | Show |
305 Cleveland at Kansas City In order to compete with the Chiefs you need to match them on the scoreboard. This Cleveland team has the ability to do so. It’s the most explosive running attack in the NFL, and KC is weak against the run. The Chiefs should have a field day passing on this Browns defense. Sure Cleveland will get its two best secondary players back, but Kansas City has more than two major weapons in the passing game. The Browns are extremely weak covering tight ends, so Kelce should have a monster day. We expect this game to be high scoring with both teams finding plenty of success. PLAY OVER |
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01-16-21 | Rams v. Packers UNDER 45.5 | Top | 18-32 | Loss | -101 | 77 h 45 m | Show |
302 Los Angeles at Green Bay This Rams defense is legit, holding 8 of 17 opponents this year to it’s three lowest yardage totals on the season. And it’s getting better as the year has gone on. In fact, 4 of the last 5 opponents have been held to bottom three seasonal outputs. The only team to have any yardage success, was the Jets in that shocking 17 point underdog upset. The Rams are starting a quarterback with a broken thumb on his throwing hand in a cold weather game. Not the ideal situation for a warm weather visitor. With offenses struggling we expect this to be a tightly fought low scoring affair. PLAY UNDER |
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01-12-21 | Jazz v. Cavs UNDER 207 | Top | 117-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
536 Utah at Cleveland Jazz in their sixth of seven on the road with the finale in Washington tomorrow. Don’t think Utah wants to push the pace with tired legs, especially with another game tomorrow. This team has had two back to backs already this season, scoring just 95 and 96 points on the front end of those occurrences. Cleveland has now played eight straight games scoring less than the century mark. This team simply doesn’t have any scoring with virtually half the squad sitting on the sidelines. Worked for us yesterday, let’s play it again. PLAY UNDER |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State v. Alabama OVER 74.5 | Top | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 79 h 4 m | Show |
499 Ohio State & Alabama We are taught to buy low and sell high in sports betting. Ohio State is off its best game of the season by far, with a 144.7 game grade according to Phil Steele. The previous high was against Michigan State 129.9. Ohio State has a tremendous +2.8 ypc advantage (6.0-3.2). Offensively Ohio State was either first or second in yards vs every opponent they played this season. The Buckeyes really only played against one good QB all season, last week against Clemson, and they permitted 400 passing yards. Alabama has a 1.9 ypc advantage on the season (5.1-3.2). The Tide defensively held just two teams to season lows in yardage, Mississippi State and Arkansas. Alabama struggled defensively against competent passing offenses. This game looks like a complete shootout as we can't see either defense making stops. Keep in mind both these teams played games in which they had big leads and turned off the offensive faucet. Don't think that will be the case here. PLAY OVER |
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01-11-21 | Grizzlies v. Cavs UNDER 206.5 | Top | 101-91 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
518 Memphis at Cleveland Since the Ja Morant injury the Grizzlies are averaging just 100 points per game. These two played just a few days ago and the Cavaliers pulled out a 94-90 victory. Since that time the Cavs have gotten Isaac Okoro back, their best overall defender. Cleveland has failed to reach 100 points in seven straight games. Sexton is day to day while virtually half the team is currently out. The only way either of these teams have success is on the defensive end of the court. PLAY UNDER |
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12-25-20 | Wisconsin v. Michigan State UNDER 140.5 | Top | 85-76 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
752 Wisconsin at Michigan State The Badgers have been a fan favorite this year, coming in with a 7-1 record. The only loss coming at Marquette, the lone road game on the schedule. Wisconsin put up great scoring numbers in non-conference play, but had just 65 on the road at Marquette, and 67 of the 120 scored vs Nebraska in the first conference game of the season. Michigan State sits at 6-1, but 0-1 in the Big Ten after losing to an improved Northwestern on the road Sunday. With road games on deck against Minnesota and Nebraska, this is a very important game for the Spartans. Teams in conference play know all about what you are trying to run offensively, which is why unders are preferred early in conference play. With the importance of this game, along with the pace rating of 324 for the Badgers, we expect this to be a low scoring affair. PLAY UNDER |
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12-18-20 | Tennessee Tech v. Tennessee UNDER 129.5 | 49-103 | Loss | -106 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
838 Tennessee Tech at Tennessee The Golden Eagles rank 315th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. Every offensive statistic, including free throw shooting, say this team simply can’t score. Now it’s going up against arguably the best defense in the country. Tennessee is 22nd in the nation defending the three, and 27th defending the two pointer. That includes games against Colorado, Cincinnati and Appalachian State. This is a complete mismatch, as we doubt the Golden Eagles can reach 40 points. Instead of laying the huge number, we look for this to be a low scoring affair. BTW, Tennessee’s adjusted tempo is 329th. PLAY UNDER |
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12-16-20 | Montana v. Washington UNDER 132.5 | 66-58 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
702 Montana at Washington Two pretty good teams desperate for a victory here. Montana, expected to be among the top of the Big Sky, sits 1-4 on the season. In games involving top 100 squads the Grizzlies had a 89.3 ppp against USC and a 69.0 ppp against Georgia. This club is really struggling to score against sound defensive squads. Washington ranks 83rd in our power ratings, but has won just once in five games to start the season. The Huskies too have struggled when stepping up in class with ppp numbers of 77.7 vs Baylor, 89.0 against Utah and 98.9 vs Oregon. Expect the pace to be slow with the importance of a victory for both these teams. PLAY UNDER |
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12-13-20 | Packers v. Lions OVER 54.5 | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
151 Green Bay at Detroit Expect a shootout here between these two divisional rivals. Packers have scored 30 points or more in 9 of 12 games, only once have they scored less than 22. Green Bay ranks 2nd in red zone efficiency, while the Lions rank 11th. The Packers are 25th in defensive red zone efficiency, while the Lions rank 30th. Detroit tied a season high of 34 points last week after the head coach firing, the 460 yards was clearly a season high. Keep in mind Detroit was highly thought of in season win circles, the coaching change could bring that excitement back for the future. With neither team defending the pass well, this game should easily surpass this total. PLAY OVER |
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12-03-20 | Texas-San Antonio v. Oklahoma OVER 157 | Top | 66-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
765 UTSA at Oklahoma The Roadrunners have an excellent backcourt which is willing to run with the Sooners. Adjusted tempo ranking 24th, Assist Rate of 15th and a good free-throw shooting squad ranking 8th in the country. Steve Henson is a Lon Kruger former assistant. Oklahoma is tipping off its season here before stepping up in class against TCU and Xavier. With three sophomores and two freshmen on the team we can see the coaching staff letting the squad play a bit more street ball here. Roll out the ball and see what you have if you will. Should be a fun atmosphere in this one. PLAY OVER |
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11-29-20 | Browns v. Jaguars OVER 48.5 | Top | 27-25 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show |
257 Cleveland at Jacksonville Browns stats have been heavily influenced by bad weather games this season. Now playing in Florida in a game not expected to be heat related, we can see both these offenses having success. Both teams have major holes defensively in this game. Jacksonville is extremely thin in the defensive backfield. Cleveland on the other hand will be playing without its best two defenders, likely ProBowl talent. The line has risen this week but we still find plenty of value. PLAY OVER |
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11-21-20 | Indiana v. Ohio State OVER 66.5 | 35-42 | Win | 100 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
357 Indiana at Ohio State The Hoosiers haven’t ran for more than 3.1 yards per carry in any game this season, averaging just 2.6 ypc on the year. As a three touchdown underdog Tom Allen knows the only way to complete with the Buckeyes is to put the ball in the air. Say what you want about the offenses of Michigan and Michigan State, but those are still good defensive teams. And Indiana produced 342 and 320 yards against them. Defensively Indiana has yet to play an offense with a legit quarterback. This week they may be playing the Heisman Trophy Winner. Ohio State can and will score on everyone. Putting up point totals of 52, 38 and 49 points this season. With Wisconsin on deck we can see the starters leaving the game early. That said the Buckeyes are dominant in recruiting and the young players will likely be favored over the Indiana starters. PLAY OVER |
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11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks OVER 56.5 | 21-28 | Loss | -116 | 4 h 19 m | Show | |
321 Arizona at Seattle When breaking down these two teams by yards per play, we see just how dominant these two offenses are. Arizona ranks 1st in rushing yards per play at 5.28, and 7th in passing yards per play at 7.42. Seattle is 5th in passing yards per play at 7.80, and 6th in yards per rush at 4.87. In the NFL if you have a dual threat offense you can have much more success than only being good throwing or running the football. Defensively Arizona ranks 22nd defending the run, while Seattle is 28th vs the pass. So both teams have weaknesses that can be exploited. 71 points were scored in the first matchup. While second matchups typically are lower scoring, we simply can’t see how either of these two squads get stops. PLAY OVER |
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11-16-20 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 43.5 | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
275 Minnesota at Chicago It’s not been reported too much nationally, but the Vikings lead the league in passing yards per play, and overall yards per play offensively. As well as 5.46 ypp running the football which also leads the NFL. So we not only have the most proficient offense overall in yardage, but the team is equally good running and passing. Defensively the Vikings rank 30th overall in defensive yards permitted per game. The Bears have reassigned the play calling duties, and are going to play faster offensively. That should allow this offense to compete with the Minnesota scoring unit. This is an extremely low total considering league average right now is around 51 points. PLAY OVER |
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11-11-20 | Eastern Michigan v. Ball State OVER 61 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show |
117 Eastern Michigan at Ball State Putting this one up a bit late as we wanted to verify the weather. Looks like 41 degrees and clear with no chance of rain and only 7 mph winds. In other words good weather for an over bet. The last four meetings have shown point totals of 52, 62, 70 and 89 points, as this has been a high scoring series. Both offenses are stout, and can strike in a big way through the passing game. We have serious questions about these two stop units however. Each team allowed 30 points per game last year in MAC play, and neither team has addressed that side of the ball enough in the offseason. The Eagles didn’t have much of a run game last year, and produced just 1.9 ypr in the opener against Kent State. The only way Eastern can match Ball State offensively is to throw the ball, which lengthens the game. Look for this one to be a shootout. PLAY OVER |
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11-08-20 | Seahawks v. Bills OVER 54.5 | 34-44 | Win | 100 | 3 h 27 m | Show | |
451 Seattle at Buffalo Wanted to wait for the latest weather reports before confirming this selection. Looks like 64 degrees and very light winds in Buffalo today. Seattle games are averaging 62 points so far this season, with every game reaching 53 or more points. The team is averaging 5.0 yards per carry and dominating through the air. Wilson is completing 71.5% of his passes, and nobody in the league throws the long ball better. Unfortunately for the Seahawks, the defense has really struggled this season. The opposition is gaining 359 yards through the air on average. Josh Allen has shown the ability to go up and down the field against a defense of this caliber. Scoring 30 or more points against the Dolphins, Rams and Raiders. The past three weeks have been lower scoring because of the weekly game plans. When you throw out the games against the limited offenses of the Jets and Patriots, the Bills have struggled. Buffalo has permitted 410 yards to Miami, 478 to the Rams, 383 to Vegas, 466 to the Chiefs. Tennessee was held to 334 yards but that added up to 42 points for the Titans. We view this as an up and down game with both teams having great success offensively. PLAY OVER |
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10-25-20 | Dodgers v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
959 LA Dodgers & Tampa Bay The last two seasons these clubs have met eight times. All eight meetings saw at least 8 runs being scored. Tampa Bay has a 121 wRC+ against lefties, and the Dodgers are an MLB leader at 126 wRC+ vs righties. League average wRC+ is 100. Both offenses are well acquainted with these starters as Kershaw and Glasnow got this series off to its start. In the first meeting 11 runs were scored. We haven’t seen any reason that all of a sudden pitching should dominate in this series. PLAY OVER |
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09-26-20 | UTEP v. UL-Monroe UNDER 50 | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
448 UTEP at Louisiana Monroe These are the two lowest ranked teams in our power ratings. In the last three seasons the Miners have won two combined games. After surviving two FCS squads to start the year, this is a confident bunch heading into this contest. UTEP only averaged 20 mpg a year ago, and only five starters returned to that side of the ball. Even in victories this season the scoring unit has struggled. The Warhawks are looking for its first victory of the season. That means we expect a very conservative game plan. With teams of this magnitude wins are a rarity, so they don’t want to be criticized by turning the ball over. ULM is breaking in a new QB this season and the offense hasn’t come around as of late. We expect a closely fought game with scoring at a minimum. PLAY UNDER |
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09-26-20 | Army v. Cincinnati UNDER 45 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
446 Army at Cincinnati The Black Knights averaged 57 running plays a game last year. This team only threw the ball 59 times all season a year ago. Army specializes in long clock absorbing drives which is what you are looking for when playing a game under the total. Cincinnati permitted just 21 points per game in 2019 and bring back nine defensive starters. Luke Fickell is a very conservative coach who looks to win by running the football and playing strong defense. We expect the clock in this contest to fly by, as both teams keep the ball on the ground. PLAY UNDER |
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09-13-20 | Cowboys v. Rams OVER 51 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -105 | 46 h 41 m | Show |
477 Dallas at Los Angeles Rams Last year these two clubs finished in the top three in pace of play. Word out of LA is that this is also a very fast field, great for breakaway speed. These offenses are very talented and we have questions about both defenses, which are banged up at key positions. With the game on the key number of 51 and this being a nationally televised night game. This total has nowhere to go but up. PLAY OVER |
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09-07-20 | Royals v. Indians UNDER 8 | 2-5 | Win | 101 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
914 Kansas City at Cleveland Runs should be very hard to come by on Monday as we really like this pitching matchup. Keller has been outstanding for the Royals this year and yet he remains under the radar. His average game score on the season is 60.2, and he had a 66 last time out vs the Indians. Plesac has even been more impressive when he isn’t our at the Chicago bars. His game scores this season have been 87, 62, 68, and 66. An average of 70.75, league average is 50. Neither team hits righties very well with the Royals coming in at 84, and the Tribe at 91. League average is 100. Throw in the fact that the Royals may be without Soler again and we really find it hard for either of these two teams to score. PLAY UNDER |
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08-29-20 | Braves v. Phillies OVER 10 | 1-4 | Loss | -122 | 2 h 40 m | Show | |
955 Atlanta at Philadelphia Over The last five games in this series have seen combined scores of 11, 9, 11, 13 and 21. Against right-handed starters the Braves have a wRC+ of 117, while the Phillies are 108. The two starters just faced off against each other six days ago, and the game scores were 36 and 47. Tomlin has a history of allowing home runs in bunches. The last three seasons he has permitted 42 homers in just 168 innings. Eflin has allowed 46 homers in just 310.2 innings. We look for both offenses to have success today. PLAY OVER |
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08-07-20 | Tigers v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -111 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
958 Detroit at Pittsburgh Under You won’t find too many batting orders as bad as these two tonight. Detroit has a wRC+ of 772 vs righties, while the Pirates are at a wRC+ of 780 against lefties. Both starting lineups combine to feature just one hitter above the league average of 100. That player is sitting in the number eight hole for Pittsburgh, Stallings the catcher. Both starters have underperformed thus far giving us a nice opportunity against this medium range total. PLAY UNDER |
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03-11-20 | Knicks v. Hawks OVER 232 | 136-131 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
547 New York at Atlanta The Knicks are playing in the second game of a back to back situation. In those type of games New York has really struggled defensively. Recent point totals in back to back games have been 221, 275 against these Hawks, 233, 232, 225, and 246 points. With both of these teams out of the playoff chase we look for a free flowing game with points a plenty. PLAY OVER |
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01-31-20 | Blazers v. Lakers OVER 230 | Top | 127-119 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
513 Portland at LA Lakers The Blazers are playing a faster pace as of late with 20.4 more points the last five than the season average. Offensively the Blazers have scored 125, 139, 125 and 129 the last four outings. In two previous meetings these two combined for 249 and 248. The Lakers had its lowest scoring output of the season last time out in a 108-91 loss to Philadelphia. With tonight being a celebration of Kobe, I would expect this game to be played free and easy. Tonight will be a spectacle and we expect a lot of scoring. PLAY OVER |
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11-03-19 | Patriots v. Ravens UNDER 45.5 | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 50 m | Show |
474 New England at Pittsburgh It’s clear how Bill Belichick wants to win with this team. Dominate defensively and play conservatively with the offense. That’s one reason why the Patriots are +17 in turnover margin. While many will look at how the Patriots allow 4.6 yards per carry defensively, keep in mind New England is happy to allow the opposition to run the ball because of having early leads. Baltimore runs the ball well but Lamar Jackson only has a 94.1 quarterback rating. New England hasn’t shown the passing attack to stretch the field against these Ravens. We look for a conservative game plan with this being a low scoring affair. PLAY UNDER |
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10-09-19 | Cardinals v. Braves UNDER 7.5 | Top | 13-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
914 St Louis at Atlanta Flaherty & Foltynewicz All hands on deck for both teams in this win or go home game in the National League. You couldn’t ask for two hotter starters as Flaherty has a 1.24 ERA and 75 average game score his last seven starts. Folty has a 1.51 ERA and 64 game score average over the same time frame. With an off day yesterday both bullpens should be in solid shape, with the starters other than Keuchel and Hudson all available. Look for a lot of mix and match here if either starter gets in trouble. But we don’t expect that as runs will come at a premium. PLAY UNDER |
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10-03-19 | Nationals v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
918 Washington at Los Angeles Neither pitcher is prone to the long ball which is always a concern with a total in this range. Buehler has an excellent 11.20 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio at home. His WHIP is a microscopic 0.887 as he simply does not allow baserunners in Dodger Stadium. LA doesn’t hit lefties nearly as well as right-handed starters. 30-22 vs southpaws vs 76-34 against right-handed starters. Corbin has an unbelievable 0.59 ERA in his last five starts against this squad. In 30.1 innings of work only 13 hits allowed. We lean with the Dodgers here but the better play is to look for a low scoring contest. PLAY UNDER |
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08-29-19 | Florida International v. Tulane OVER 58 | 14-42 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 43 m | Show | |
137 Florida International at Tulane The Panthers have gone over on the road in 11 of its last 14 games. This is a team bringing back 16 starters, eight on the offensive side of the ball. Tulane games averaged 54.3 and 56.7 points the past two seasons. Willie Fritz brought in a new offensive coordinator and the team is looking to play at a faster pace in 2019. PLAY OVER |
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08-16-19 | Brewers v. Nationals UNDER 9 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
952 Milwaukee at Washington Houser & Corbin None of the last ten games in this series has seen the losing team score more than four runs. Adrian Houser has an excellent 24 to 4 SO to BB ratio his last four outings. Patrick Corbin has averaged a 59 game score in his last seven starts. On the season he has only had one home start that graded out lower than the league average game score of 50. PLAY UNDER |
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08-12-19 | Orioles v. Yankees OVER 11 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 1 h 23 m | Show |
955 Baltimore at New York Ynoa & Paxton The last seven meetings in this series has resulted in game totals of 16, 13, 15, 11, 12, 15 and 17 runs. Gabriel Ynoa has a game score average of 41 in his last seven starts. The Yankees who had combined to score 82 runs in its last nine games, was shutout yesterday at Toronto. With this being the first game of a doubleheader, the starters will be kept in the game longer in order to rest the tired bullpens. Keep in mind the Orioles have allowed 90 combined runs its last ten games. PLAY OVER GAME ONE |
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07-12-19 | Mets v. Marlins UNDER 8 | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
906 NY Mets at Miami Vargas & Smith This is the best day of the season for pitching staffs. Teams set up its rotations to take advantage of matchups, and the bullpens are all rested. Both starters here have had nice success against the opposition. Vargas has a 55 average game score his last four starts against the Marlins. In his last three he has only allowed four earned runs in 16 innings. Smith in his three career starts against the Mets has a 60 game score average. With neither team having a lot of offensive success this season we will look for a low scoring game. PLAY UNDER |
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06-26-19 | Rays v. Twins UNDER 9 | 4-6 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
920 Tampa Bay at Minnesota Morton & Odorizzi Our starting numbers have Morton ranked 24% better than league average, and Odorizzi 15% superior to an average MLB starter. The bullpens combined are 13% better than league average. Morton has a 64 average game score in his last seven starts. His last three on the road were 65, 75 and 70. His three starts against the Twins averaged a 54 game score, four better than league average. Odorizzi has an average of 56 his last seven starts. His only start against the Rays this year was an outstanding 74. The Rays have surpassed five runs just twice in its last ten games, while the Twins have done so three times. We expect pitching to dominate here. PLAY UNDER |
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06-20-19 | Marlins v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | 7-6 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
906 Miami at St Louis Gallen & Wainwright Zac Gallen has been dominant in Triple A for the Marlins this season. He’s their best pitching prospect and his arrival has been highly anticipated. Adam Wainwright returns from the DL knowing he has dominated this Miami squad. In his last five starts against the Marlins his game score average is 61. He’s been about league average in his last seven starts overall with a game score average of 49. Yesterday we talked about this low scoring trend and it worked out well for us. In the past ten meetings the losing team has scored a combined eight overall runs. Only once has a team scored two, all others were one run or shutouts. We look for Gallen to have a lot of success in his first major league start, as this one never approaches the total number. PLAY UNDER |
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06-19-19 | Marlins v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
958 Miami at St Louis Richards & Ponce de Leon Simply amazing how the Cardinals can face a pitcher making his first two starts of his career in the same week, and get shutout both times. The lack of adjustments by this St Louis offense is shocking. Over the past two seasons the Cardinals are just 6-5 against the Marlins despite how bad this Miami team has been. In the five games this season the team on the losing end has scored a grand total of two runs. No way can we expect a shootout in this one. Richards is averaging a 55 game score in his last seven starts, including a 71 and 54 in his last two starts on the road. Ponce de Leon going back to last year has produced a 57 average game score in his last seven starts, including a 53 and 63 in his two 2019 starts. We look for the pitching to dominate here as we see another weak offensive effort. PLAY UNDER |
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06-18-19 | Brewers v. Padres UNDER 8 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
Milwaukee at San Diego Woodruff & Allen PLAY UNDER |
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06-15-19 | Cubs v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
964 Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers Darvish & Buehler Two starting pitchers in good form. Darvish has a 53 average game score the past seven starts with a 44 to 17 strikeout to walk ratio. His recent starts on the road were 47 in Colorado, 65 in St Louis, 61 in Cincinnati, 68 in Arizona and 57 in Miami. He has never faced the Dodgers in his career, which is an advantage to the pitcher. Buehler has been outstanding with a 65 game score in his last seven starts, and a dominating 54 to 4 strikeout to walk ratio. He hasn’t walked more that two in a game all season. PLAY UNDER |
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06-14-19 | Indians v. Tigers UNDER 9.5 | 13-4 | Loss | -101 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
920 Cleveland at Detroit Plutko & Carpenter While most will expect a higher scoring game based on these two starters, we are finding value on the under here. Cleveland is 4% below league average against lefties on the road, while Detroit his home righties 8% league average. Each team has seen these starters just once, and that was last year. While the game scores haven’t been strong for either man, Plutko has a 30 to 7 strikeout to walk ratio his past seven starts, and Carpenter is 24 to 8 in that same category. Simply can’t trust either offense to put up a lot of runs here in this pitchers park. PLAY UNDER |
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06-13-19 | Cubs v. Dodgers OVER 8 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
959 Chicago Cubs at LA Dodgers Lester & Kershaw Combined over the last seven starts these two pitchers have been league average. Lester with a 45 game score, and Kershaw with a 55. League average of course is 50. Lester has really struggled his last two games on the road with 25 game scores at Houston & Washington. This Dodger offense could be the best in the league. The last six games in this series have averaged 11.0 runs per contest, the last two in LA 13.0. Chicago hits lefties on the road 2% better than league average. The Dodgers hit lefties at home 14% better than an average big league club. PLAY OVER |
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06-07-19 | Mariners v. Angels UNDER 9 | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
977 Seattle at LA Angels Gonzales & Heaney Neither team has fared well against lefties with the Mariners posting a 5-14 record and the Angels an 8-15 mark. Heaney’s starts this season have game scores of 62 and 60. His last five starts against the Mariners have averaged a game score of 52. Marco Gonzales was crushed by these Angels last time out, allowing 10 earned runs in 4.2 innings of work. You know he has this game circled as he looks to right the ship against the same team that pounded him. Keep in mind his previous four starts against Los Angeles resulted in game scores of 55, 47, 73 and 53. PLAY UNDER |
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05-28-19 | Tigers v. Orioles UNDER 9 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 60 m | Show |
964 Detroit at Baltimore Boyd & Bundy Matthew Boyd has four starts on the season away from home. His game scores in those contests were 62, 60, 69 and 52. That included games at Boston and the NY Yankees. Dylan Bundy really struggled with his mechanics early on, but as of late his home game scores have been 49, 75, 47 and 50. Those contests were against the very good offenses of the Twins, Rays, Angels and Yankees. Our numbers rate Detroit 10% worse than league average against righty starters, and the Orioles offense 13% worse against lefty starters. We look for a low scoring contest. PLAY UNDER |
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05-27-19 | Royals v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 25 m | Show | |
913 Kansas City at Chicago Bailey & Nova Our numbers have Bailey 14% worse than an average MLB starter, and Nova coming in 9% worse. In Bailey’s last three road starts he has produced game scores of 27, 52 and 27. With a strikeout to walk ratio of 6 to 8. Ivan Nova has pitched off this mound three times this season. He has produced game scores of 6, 34 and 16. His SO to BB ratio is 8 to 7. These two clubs are averaging 8.8 runs in their six meetings this season. This contest should feature plenty of runs. PLAY OVER |
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05-19-19 | Dodgers v. Reds UNDER 9.5 | 8-3 | Loss | -114 | 1 h 20 m | Show | |
906 LA Dodgers at Cincinnati Ryu & Roark Both these pitchers are in excellent current form. In the last seven starts Ryu has a 68 game score with a 1.75 ERA. He’s on an amazing 46-3 strikeout to walk ratio in those games, including not walking more than one batter in any contest. We grade Ryu 38% better than an average MLB starter. Roark has a 54 game score with a 2.92 ERA as of late. He also owns a career game score of 59 against these Dodgers. In the season series the most runs scored in the five games has been seven runs. Neither team is in good hitting form right now. PLAY UNDER |
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05-18-19 | Mets v. Marlins UNDER 7.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
956 NY Mets at Miami Mata & Lopez These two combined for 14 runs yesterday easily surpassing the 6.5 run total. That’s a major rarity from these clubs as of late, especially the Marlins who had totaled 15 runs the previous nine games. It’s also a revenge game for Pablo Lopez who was hammered just eight days ago to these same Mets. He permitted 10 earned runs in only three innings of work. His game score was exactly zero. But he has pitched well at home with game scores of 71 against Atlanta and 54 vs the Cubs, two very good hitting ball clubs. In his only other start in his career against the Mets he had a game score of 56, allowing just two earned runs in six innings of work. Matz has a game score of 63 in his last five starts against Miami, permitting just six earned runs in 30 innings. PLAY UNDER |
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05-01-19 | Indians v. Marlins UNDER 6.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
930 Cleveland at Miami Kluber & Smith Both teams have really struggled offensively this season, and this is a tough ballpark to score in. Kluber, despite an up and down start to the season, still rates 30% better than an average starter. Caleb Smith is a fast riser, as when he is healthy like he is today, he can be dominant. With both teams rating high defensively, and both starters expected to go long into this game, we expect the offenses to struggle. PLAY UNDER |
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03-19-19 | Loyola-Chicago v. Creighton OVER 136 | 61-70 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
689 Loyola Chicago at Creighton The Blue Jays were disappointed in not making the big dance, so the team won’t likely play much defense here. We expect an up and down game from two teams who can get the shots they want from these defenses. Creighton takes 46.9% of its shots from 3, making a solid 38.5% of those attempts. Loyola allows a long distance shooting percentage of 36.6%. Loyola prefers to shoot inside the arc with 41% success from midrange and 63.6% at the rim. Creighton allows 41.2% from midrange and 63.2% at the rim. It doesn’t hurt that this will be the last game of the season for one of these teams, so late game fouling to extend the season in probable. PLAY OVER |
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03-07-19 | Valparaiso v. Indiana State UNDER 126.5 | 77-55 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
632 Valparaiso & Indiana State Tournament game in St Louis Valpo does a good job of limiting opponent threes by allowing just 35% opponent shots from the perimeter. Neither team takes many long distance shots at percentages of 28.1% for Indiana State and 33.9% for Valparaiso. Indiana State takes way to many midrange shots at 34.9%, while Valpo forces opponents to take 28.8% of attempts from that range. PLAY UNDER |
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03-05-19 | Mississippi State v. Tennessee UNDER 146.5 | 54-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
642 Mississippi State at Tennessee Bulldogs looking to bounce back from a loss at Auburn last time out. After holding the previous five opponents to 67 points or less, Auburn put up 80. Very much like Tennessee the Bulldogs love shooting from midrange. Putting up 30.4% of its shots from that area, while the Volunteers attempt 36.5% of its shots from that distance. Neither team shoots a lot at the rim with both teams in the 31-32% range, which is below average. Tennessee coming off the revenge win over Kentucky. Both teams match up pretty well here which points us towards a low scoring game. PLAY UNDER |
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03-02-19 | South Carolina v. Missouri UNDER 136.5 | Top | 63-78 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 25 m | Show |
660 South Carolina at Missouri The first meeting had 160 points which gives us an advantageous line here for the rematch. Neither team is prolific from deep and South Carolina only attempts 34.5% of its shots from that range. Both teams defend the mid-range shot well, and the Gamecocks attempt 36.6% of its shots from that low efficiency area. Both teams rarely shoot at the rim, yet they are very good at stopping opponents from doing so. Therefore without easy baskets we can see this contest being very low scoring. PLAY UNDER |
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02-21-19 | Pepperdine v. Gonzaga UNDER 156 | 64-92 | Push | 0 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
628 Pepperdine at Gonzaga Last road game of the season for the Waves who have been terrible away from home this year. Pepperdine is 2-10 SU on the season, and a huge underdog in this contest. With back to back winnable games at home to finish the season, we can’t see the Waves running with Gonzaga here. This team has gone under the total in 14 of its last 20 games. Gonzaga on the other hand has an improving BYU on deck in two days. The Zags have gone under the total in 14 of 19 games as of late. Only one conference game has finished with more than 156 points. Pepperdine takes 41.8% of its shots from beyond the arc, but Gonzaga only permits 34.9% of opponents shots from there, along with an excellent 29.6% success rate. Gonzaga can name the score here, but what is the incentive against a foe who just wants to get out of here without embarrassment. PLAY UNDER |
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02-20-19 | North Carolina v. Duke UNDER 165.5 | 88-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
820 North Carolina at Duke While the general public will look for this to be a high scoring contest. When you break these teams down we find plenty of value on the under. The Tar Heels are an excellent 3 point shooting team, cashing in on 38.6% of attempts from long range. But that’s the strength of this Duke defense as the Blue Devils hold the opposition to just 29.7% from deep. North Carolina in our opinion takes way too many midrange shots, and Duke permits 28.2% of shots to be taken from that range. Duke only allows 29.2% shooting from that area of the court. On the other hand Duke takes 43.7% of its shots at the rim, while North Carolina only allows 30.4% of shots to be taken from close range. So the preferred shooting areas of both teams should be defended well in this matchup. PLAY UNDER |
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02-19-19 | Maryland v. Iowa UNDER 148 | Top | 66-65 | Win | 100 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
626 Maryland at Iowa Having a hard time seeing these two getting to the posted total in this one. Terps have reached this number just once on the conference road all season. Maryland ranks 277th in the country in pace, and 19th in effective field goal defense. This team is outstanding defensively at the rim, allowing just 57% field goals. As well as behind the arc forcing opponents to shoot 31.6%. Iowa is also very good defensively from distance permitting just 31.4% shooting from behind the arc. While the Hawkeyes are 70th in pace, the team is 216th in field goal attempts per 100 trips up court. We look for this game to total 143 points or less. PLAY UNDERÂ |
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01-27-19 | Washington State v. Oregon OVER 144 | Top | 58-78 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
839 Washington State at Oregon We expect this one to be a shootout. The Cougars have permitted 90, 88, 92 and 85 points on the road the past four games, all in conference. Oregon is coming off its second lowest offensive output of the season. The Cougars shoot 43.9% on its shots from behind the arc, while Oregon allows teams to take 47% of its shots from 3 point land. That means long shot attempts a plenty for Washington State. Neither team forces opponents to shoot between the rim and the arc, which traditionally is the least effective offensive shots. Therefore both teams will be able to attack the basket and dish to waiting 3 point shooters. PLAY OVER |
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01-19-19 | Southern Miss v. Old Dominion UNDER 124 | 62-76 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
662 Southern Miss at Old Dominion Very low total here for a reason. Old Dominion limits opponents to just 44.9% effective shooting. Overall 6 of the last 8 home games have stayed under the total. Southern Miss is a high scoring team on the home, but when traveling the Golden Eagles can’t keep up the same pace. This team has posted a 1-4-1 under mark as of late away from home. The lines maker can only post total so low, and we feel these teams will struggle to reach 120. Plenty of value on the under. PLAY UNDER |
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01-18-19 | Ohio v. Toledo UNDER 143.5 | 52-75 | Win | 100 | 2 h 6 m | Show | |
860 Ohio U at Toledo These teams had much better offensive efficiency numbers a year ago and the pace ratings were higher. In the last time these clubs met a season ago 156 points were scored. But this is a different year especially for the Bobcats who simply struggle putting the ball in the hoop. Because of that Ohio has slowed the pace down while waiting til 19 seconds of the possession has gone off before averaging a shot attempt. That slow pace should keep them competitive here. Toledo played very fast in non-conference action, but has slowed the pace considerably in MAC play. We look for this game to stay under the posted total. PLAY UNDER |
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01-17-19 | Michigan State v. Nebraska UNDER 147 | Top | 70-64 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
634 Michigan State at Nebraska Spartans a bit short handed tonight in what is considered a playoff type of game for the Huskers. Michigan State has been a big offensive scoring team by getting out on the break, but that success was in non-conference play. Now in Big Ten action these teams know what to expect from the Spartans. Therefore we expect a more physical lower scoring game. Nebraska can’t beat this team by trying to outscore them, the Huskers need to slow the pace and be physical in a show me type of game. PLAY UNDER |
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01-13-19 | Eagles v. Saints OVER 51 | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 13 m | Show |
307 Philadelphia at New Orleans The Eagles are a completely different offense under Foles, and the team has responded to his leadership for the second year in a row. The Saints can be beaten deep and Foles has the talent around him to exploit the Saints weakness. New Orleans on the other hand should have a field day against this banged up Philadelphia secondary. The way the Eagles play defense sets up great for this offense, just like it did in the earlier meeting. With this game being played indoors we look for a shootout. PLAY New Orleans |
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01-12-19 | Colts v. Chiefs OVER 54.5 | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 28 m | Show |
301 Indianapolis at Kansas City With the snow having an effect on the game casual bettors are playing the under. But that plays right into the hands of the offense as the receivers have a bigger advantage knowing where they are going. Wind not snow is a reason to play an under, and we already expected to see plenty of scoring in this game. Indy plays zone defense and the Chiefs are excellent in picking apart the zone. Kansas City is terrible against the run, which will open up the Colts passing game. We look for a shootout here and the number is even better with the weather. PLAY OVER |
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12-28-18 | Cavs v. Heat UNDER 202 | 94-118 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
520 Cleveland at Miami The Cavaliers just don’t have enough offensive playmakers to win on a consistent basis. Which is why the Cavaliers need to play well on the defensive end to have any type of success. Miami has inserted Winslow into the starting lineup for the more offensively oriented Dragic, who is out with an injury. Winslow is a poor shooter but a very good defender. We expect a poor shooting game all around as this contest easily stays below the posted total. PLAY UNDER |
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12-16-18 | Bucs v. Ravens UNDER 46.5 | 12-20 | Win | 100 | 19 h 39 m | Show | |
312 Tampa Bay at Baltimore The Buccaneers have moved the ball well all season but have turned the ball over more than anyone in the league. The positive news is that since the crab man has been reinserted into the lineup, the team has been more conservative. Baltimore doesn’t have a passing game with Jackson, and until the Ravens lose we won’t see Flacco in the starting role. This total is being based on how these teams played the majority of the season, not how they are playing now. We look for a more conservative game, with the defenses controlling play. PLAY UNDER |
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12-15-18 | Arizona State v. Fresno State UNDER 54 | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 48 m | Show | |
206 Arizona State & Fresno State in Las Vegas The Sun Devils have a long history off high scoring bowl games. In the last seven years we have seen 83, 85, 67, 60, 90 and 80 withpoints scored in the six times Arizona State has gone bowling. But this isn’t your typical Sun Devil team, and Fresno State is not your typical defensive opponent. The last three seasons this club permitted 32.8, 39.8 and 33.5 points per game. But this season the opposition has scored 35 or more just twice all year. Fresno State has held every opponent this season to 27 points or less. Last year the Bulldogs allowed just 17.9 points per game. This has been an elite defense under Jeff Tedford. Fresno held PAC 12 representative UCLA to just 14 points earlier this season, with a 34% offensive success rate. We look for a defensive battle here. PLAY UNDER |
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12-10-18 | Cavs v. Bucks OVER 219 | 92-108 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 28 m | Show | |
515 Cleveland at Milwaukee Should be a friendly contest as these teams just completed a trade with two of the players likely to see action tonight. Milwaukee just played Golden State and Toronto, two very intense games. Can’t expect the same type of emotion tonight, which leads to more of a freelance contest. We look for a fast paced game. PLAY OVER |
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12-06-18 | Red Wings v. Maple Leafs OVER 6 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 19 m | Show |
3 Detroit at Toronto One of, if not the biggest spread of the season. But we are going to tackle the total instead of the side. Detroit is playing its third game in four days and fourth in six. When in that 4 in 6 situation the over has hit in 6 of 7 games. The last time these two played eight goals were scored. The Red Wings have scored four or more goals in 4 of 5 games as of late. Toronto has scored 24 goals in its last five games. PLAY OVER |
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12-02-18 | Broncos v. Bengals OVER 44.5 | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 38 m | Show | |
365 Denver at Cincinnati The Broncos should move the ball well against one of the worst defenses in the league. This is a team playing with confidence after facing the Steelers and Chargers coming out of the bye. With Cincinnati, San Francisco, Cleveland and Oakland on deck, this is a team that isn’t out of the playoff hunt. Very short total here considering the Bengals are finally healthy at the receiver spot. Word out of Cincinnati is that the players are excited to get a good look at Driscoll behind center. The talk in camp is that the team doesn’t expect and offensive drop-off. This line expects the Bengals to really struggle offensively, we disagree. PLAY OVER |
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12-01-18 | Clemson v. Pittsburgh UNDER 53 | 42-10 | Win | 100 | 32 h 42 m | Show | |
320 Pittsburgh at Clemson The Panthers are a team that prefers to run the ball and play defense. It will be very difficult for this team to have success on the ground against this stout Clemson stop unit. But this Pitt defense could be good enough to keep this game close. The last four games this stop unit has been outstanding with 20.0, 35.3, 39.0 and 38.0% success rates. Sure this Clemson scoring unit is superior to Miami, Wake, VT and Virginia, but without the Panthers putting points on the board this total is way too high. PLAY UNDER |
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11-27-18 | Nevada v. Loyola-Chicago UNDER 150 | 79-65 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show | |
524 Nevada at Loyola Chicago Sweet 16 rematch as the Wolfpack to look avenge its season at the hands of the host. But the teams are a bit different this year as the Ramblers don’t have the offense of a year ago. Therefore we look for the host to milk the clock more than the last meeting. This total is six points higher than that contest, yet the offenses aren’t quite as good. Let’s look for a low scoring affair. PLAY UNDER |
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11-18-18 | Eagles v. Saints OVER 56 | Top | 7-48 | Loss | -108 | 48 h 38 m | Show |
459 Philadelphia at New Orleans Now that Carson Wentz is getting healthier by the week, we look for this Eagles offense to get on a roll. The past five games Philadelphia has produced 55, 50, 52, 50 and 60% offensive success rates. The Eagles defense has suffered injuries especially in the defensive backfield, so this game should be a shootout. New Orleans has scored at least 40 points in all but one game this season. The last three games the offense has produced 69, 54 and 55% offensive play success rates. Also in that same time frame the Saints have permitted 23 combined explosive plays. PLAY OVER |
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11-18-18 | Titans v. Colts OVER 50 | 10-38 | Loss | -115 | 44 h 4 m | Show | |
461 Tennessee at Indianapolis Now that Marcus Mariota is finally healthy this Titans offense is starting to find success. Offensive success rates of 51, 52 and 54% the past three games. In that time period the Titans have produced 28 total explosive plays. Indy has consistently been one of the more efficient offenses in the league. Over the past four games the Colts have averaged 35.5 points per game. Other than the game where it allowed just 5 points to the lowly Bills, this defense has permitted 26, 28, 42, 38 and 37 points. This one should fly over the posted total. PLAY OVER |
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11-04-18 | Rams v. Saints OVER 56.5 | Top | 35-45 | Win | 100 | 27 h 5 m | Show |
469 Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans In scoring just 29 points last week against Green Bay the Rams produced just 44% successful offensive plays. The next lowest output on the season was the opener at Oakland at 52%. The Rams are averaging 55.8% successful offensive plays on the season, roughly 10% higher than league average. Last week Minnesota did,’y take advantage of this weal Saints defensive backfield, that won’t happen with this offense. New Orleans is averaging 55.4% offensive play success, but allowing 48.7% themselves. New Orleans has an offense that can match the Rams, and this game is being played in a dome. We expect both offenses to score at will and easily surpass this high total. PLAY OVER |
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10-23-18 | Dodgers v. Red Sox UNDER 7.5 | 4-8 | Loss | -118 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
902 Los Angeles at Boston Both teams are going with their aces in game one, but to be honest Kershaw hasn’t been his typical self this season. Still even at less than his normal skill level, he’s still an elite starter. Both bullpens are excellent, although the Dodgers have a 14% edge in that department. While both teams hit lefties well, the weather is expected to be a bit of a concern tonight. Rather than pick a side here, we will look for this game to stay under the posted total. Pitching has a sizable edge here and the total is being propped up by the two good hitting clubs. PLAY UNDER |
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10-16-18 | Red Sox v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | 8-2 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
908 Boston at Houston Eovaldi & Keuchel Both starters rate 7% and 4% better than league average, and we all know about the strength in the bullpens. In fact, Houston’s bullpen rates 26% better than league average. In a ballpark that is very pitcher friendly, and with the staffs having a day off, we prefer the under in this contest. PLAY UNDER |
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09-15-18 | Vanderbilt v. Notre Dame UNDER 53 | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 115 h 13 m | Show | |
138 Vanderbilt at Notre Dame The Commodore defense regressed last year by allowing 31.3 points per game, up from 24.0 the prior season. With seven returning starters we look for this defense to bounce back this season. Against Middle Tennessee and Nevada Vanderbilt permitted just 7 and 10 points. This team is allowing just 65% in early down success rate. Which is the percentage of first downs on first and second down decided by total first downs. Notre Dame is permitting just 62% in early down success rate, allowing 17 and 16 points to Michigan and Ball State. The Irish offense has gotten off to a slow start and we expect that to continue here. PLAY UNDER |
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09-03-18 | Virginia Tech v. Florida State OVER 56.5 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -106 | 245 h 30 m | Show |
219 Virginia Tech at Florida State Getting this one up early as the line has been moving, and we want to lock this one in before it continues. We expect this Hokies defense to take a step back this year. The defensive backfield has already suffered attrition since spring practice. We also expect this offense to be better this season after taking a 6.8 peg drop a season ago. But the real reason for this play is the massive change of pace expected in Tallahassee this season. Jimbo Fisher preferred a slow pace to his offense which really made no sense considering he out talented just about every opponent on the schedule. When you have the better athletes you want to have more plays to exploit that fact. By slowing the pace all you are doing is giving the opposition a chance to stay in the game. Enter Willie Taggart who wants to hike the ball as fast as he can. It keeps the defense from substituting and gives his superior team a better chance to shine. The Seminoles averaged 27.8 peg last year. After averaging 37 mpg the prior six seasons. Let’s get this one in now before this thing rises any further. PLAY OVER |
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08-12-18 | Red Sox v. Orioles UNDER 8.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 1 h 58 m | Show | |
968 Boston at Baltimore Sale & Cobb Not much time for analysis on this one. Basically we have Sale on the mound against Cobb who is finally starting to get back to his previous years form. It’s getaway day after a high scoring series including a double header. We can see plenty of early swings here as neither team wants to extend this game. The Red Sox just want to get out of town and enjoy a day off, and the O’s know success against Sale is likely futile. PLAY UNDER |
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07-11-18 | Dodgers v. Padres UNDER 7 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 110 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
912 Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Maeda & Lucchesi Two of our highest rated pitchers tangle tonight, and neither is considered to be elite by the general public. We rate Kenta Maeda 26% better than league average, and Joey Lucchesi 12% above the league norm. The home plate umpire is also known for a wide strike zone which gives us another advantage. Both starters have been on their game as of late so we expect a solid pitchers duel. The bullpens are also better than average by 7% and 12%. Look for a nice pitchers duel out west. PLAY UNDER |
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05-20-18 | Indians v. Astros UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
928 Cleveland at Houston Carrasco & McCullers Terrific pitching matchup for Sunday Night Baseball. Carlos Carrasco has pitched in this ballpark twice and he has yet to give up a run in 15.1 combined innings of work. Overall his road ERA in his career is 1.38 runs less than when he pitches at home. McCullers has a career ERA at home of 2.47 runs better than on the road. He rarely gives up the long ball which is a big part of this Cleveland offense. Therefore we look for a major pitchers duel tonight in front of the national television audience. PLAY UNDER |
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04-19-18 | Pirates v. Phillies OVER 7 | Top | 0-7 | Push | 0 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
951 Pittsburgh at Philadelphia Tailon & Arrieta James Tailon has been very fortunate with runners on base, as well as BABIP this season. He has been good but not nearly as good as his numbers would suggest. Jake Arrieta has been fortunate as well but our main reason to expect regression is in this strikeout rate. His numbers really dropped off last year and his fastball speed isn’t any better this season. This total is priced for two elite pitchers, and while both are above average neither is in that elite category. PLAY OVER |
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04-15-18 | Golden Knights v. Kings UNDER 5 | Top | 3-2 | Push | 0 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
26 Las Vegas at Los Angeles The first two games have been defensive struggles with both goalies doing outstanding work. Neither team is able to get off many clean shots as the defenses have been swarming. In almost eight full periods these two have combined for a total of four goals. When playing five on five the offenses have been dominated. No reason to expect anything different here. PLAY UNDER |
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04-13-18 | Kings v. Golden Knights UNDER 5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 110 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
56 Los Angeles at Las Vegas Aware that there has been a Kings suspension today for a violent hit in the first game. But still feel this is going to be another major defensive game. Neither team had many fast break scoring chances in the opener, as both squad played terrific defense. The goalies were also outstanding as we have two of the league’s elite in this series. With LA shutting down the Vegas speed we look for another tight defensive effort. PLAY UNDER |
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04-03-18 | Raptors v. Cavs OVER 222 | Top | 106-112 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
703 Toronto at Cleveland The Cavs have had no answer for this Raptors offense. Toronto has scored 133 and 129 points in the first two meetings. While the Cleveland defense has gotten better the slashing Raptors have taken advantage of the Cleveland weakness, an inside defensive presence. Every game is important for Cleveland right now as it looks to hold onto the third seed in the east. Therefore since the team can’t slow down the Raptors, we expect LeBron and company to try to match them offensively, resulting in a high scoring contest. PLAY OVER |
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03-23-18 | Syracuse v. Duke UNDER 132.5 | Top | 65-69 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
876 Syracuse & Duke This is a very bad matchup for the Orangemen. Here we have two zone defenses with Duke switching to the zone half way through the season. In order to beat the zone you need to penetrate and dish. That would mean the ability to hit 3 point shots. Unfortunately for Syracuse the team has the worst 3 point shooting out of the Sweet 16 entrants at 31.7%. Duke only allows 31.9% from behind the arc. The Orange are also the slowest paced team, so it will take as much time as possible to take a shot. Syracuse does a nice job from distance defensively allowing just 32.1% shooting. The total in this game is on the low side, but it’s not low enough. These teams met in late February and Duke won 60-44. We expect another similar score here. PLAY UNDER |
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03-20-18 | Pistons v. Suns OVER 215 | Top | 115-88 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
661 Detroit at Phoenix Now that the Pistons are virtually out of playoff contention we are seeing the Detroit defense pulling a no show. In 10 of the last 16 games opponents have reached 110 or more points. What was once a team strength has turn into a liability. Phoenix has been in tank mode for quite some time, especially on the defensive end. Here are the point totals allowed over the last eight games, 124, 116, 129, 122, 115, 125, 113 and 124 points. The Suns haven’t won two straight games since December, as the players are just running up and down the court to add to their stats. We expect this one to fly over the posted total. PLAY OVER |
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03-09-18 | Lakers v. Nuggets OVER 229.5 | 116-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
813 LA Lakers at Denver This series has been a very high scoring one although the last meeting did go under. Let’s take a look at the point totals as of late for the Lakers on the road. How bout 228 vs the Spurs, 244 vs the Heat, 227 against the Hawks, 221 vs the Kings, 230 vs the T-Wolves, 256 against the Pelicans, and 253 against the Mavericks. Denver runs a faster pace at home as opposed to the road. We look for another high scoring affair here as we look to surpass the posted total. PLAY OVER |
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