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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-28-24 | Lions v. 49ers UNDER 52 | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 32 m | Show | |
*3 Star play Under* The San Francisco 49ers have a very good offense. The Detroit Lions offense is good as well. I still think this total is set a little too high. The 49ers will have Deebo Samuel in this game, but he isn't 100 percent. He's a game changer and him at less than 100 percent is a clear negative. The Lions defense has been top five in stopping the run all season. The 49ers run at the third highest rate of any team in the NFL. Hutchinson and the Lions defensive line should be able to get in the backfield some when the 49ers pass it as well. The 49ers defense is really good. Jared Goff is a good quarterback, but his inconsistency away from home makes me wonder how good he can be in this spot. The 49ers are third in the NFL in points allowed. San Francisco's offense often gets talked about far more, but the defense has been fantastic consistently this season. A total in the low 50's with teams who don't play that fast and with so much on the line- I think it is a bit too high. Take the under. |
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01-21-24 | Bucs v. Lions OVER 49 | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 47 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions have been a great over team at home throughout the course of the season. Detroit's Jared Goff has some tremendous weapons around him. St. Brown is one of the most underrated wide receivers in the NFL. LaPorta is trying to work back from an injury. If he plays it is a nice bonus. The Lions likely try to throw it quite a bit here, which I think helps the over. Baker Mayfield has been good in this Tampa Bay offense. Mike Evans is a big play receiver, and the Lions will have trouble defending him. Detroit's defense was fortunate to not give up more points last week. I'm not convinced they will always be able to bend without breaking in the red zone. Overs in the playoffs in dome games have cashed at a 64.7% clip in the NFL in the past 15 years. The fast track should be great for these offenses. Take the over. |
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01-14-24 | Packers v. Cowboys -7 | 48-32 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Cowboys* The Dallas Cowboys were fantastic at home this year. Dallas has won 16 games in a row at home. Many of those games have been blowouts. Green Bay has some good things going on, but they are far behind Dallas. Green Bay is a really young team. The Packers are also very banged up. Jaire Alexander is a game time decision and Christian Watson is questionable too. AJ Dillon is expected out for this one. Alexander being banged up even if he does play is a huge negative against a great Dallas passing attack. The Packers defense has been torched by some bad offenses this year. We can't just remember the past week (where they did play well against the Bears). This Green Bay defense is weak against the run and Alexander is their star in the secondary. Prescott and Lamb and company should be far too much for the Green Bay defense. Jordan Love and the Packers offense can likely move the ball and score some here, but Dallas should have way too many weapons for Green Bay to trade scores. Take Dallas. |
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01-13-24 | Dolphins v. Chiefs UNDER 44.5 | 7-26 | Win | 100 | 55 h 55 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* I see the Kansas City Chiefs as a straight under team in their current form. Kansas City's offense has no longer been explosive at all. The wide receivers are just too big of a liability. Travis Kelce is still good, but he isn't quite as good as he was a few years ago. Miami's offense was amazing against the weaker teams this year, but they weren't consistently great against good defenses. The Chiefs defense is very solid. The first matchup between these two in Germany was 21-14. This game will be played outdoors in some brutal weather conditions. A temperature of around zero degrees during the game with wind chills dropping to 20 or 25 degrees below zero. The key is the wind. In these conditions I think the play calling will be a bit more conservative. The Chiefs have played five straight games under this number. Three of Miami's last four games have stayed under this total. Take the under. |
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01-07-24 | Eagles v. Giants +5.5 | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 121 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Giants* The New York Giants have been playing much better football of late. Tyrod Taylor isn't a star, but he is a quality quarterback who tends to make enough plays to keep his team in the game. The Giants played the Eagles tightly two weeks ago and then lost by just a point and covered against the Rams. The Philadelphia Eagles are in a highly questionable motivation spot here. The Eagles need Dallas to lose to the Commanders in a game where Dallas is a massive favorite. If Dallas is winning in that game, I think there is a real chance the Eagles will start resting players in the second half of this game. The Eagles have really fallen off badly of late, and competing hard until the end of this one likely means less than staying healthy and getting ready for the playoffs. I think the situational spot is a strong one for the Giants. This should be a tight game and I'm happy to take this many points. Take New York. |
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01-07-24 | Jets v. Patriots -2.5 | 17-3 | Loss | -110 | 131 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Patriots* The New England Patriots have been playing hard in these games late in the season. I expect them to put in effort again here. This could be the final game in New England for Bill Belichick and I do think the players want to send him out with a win if it is. New England has two outright upsets in their last four games, and they won the box score against the Bills in a strong effort last week. They have covered four straight games. The New York Jets defense is worn out and banged up. The Jets offense puts them in such bad situations, and we can expect more of those woes again this week. New York struggled badly against the Pats defense earlier this year. I expect the same here. Bailey Zappe has shown he can help move the Patriots better here late in the season. I like the spot situationally. Take New England. |
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01-07-24 | Jaguars v. Titans +5 | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Titans* The Tennessee Titans will start Ryan Tannehill at quarterback here. It is likely his last game as a Titan. Tannehill talked during the week about how special it would be for him to finish his time as a Titan with a win. The Titans have shown time and time again that they are able to get up for these games with Mike Vrabel as their coach. Vrabel is 24-14-2 ATS as an underdog of 3 points or more. Yes, the Jaguars need to win this game. No, that doesn't mean that will necessarily happen. In fact, teams needing a win and facing an eliminated team in the final two weeks of the NFL season are just 39% ATS. Trevor Lawrence is far less than 100%, and the Jaguars have plenty of clear weaknesses. The Jags defense has been very inconsistent this year. DeAndre Hopkins has some key incentives to try to reach here. Derrick Henry has a good history against Jacksonville. I'll grab the points. Take Tennessee. |
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01-01-24 | Alabama v. Michigan UNDER 46.5 | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 665 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan Wolverines and Alabama Crimson Tide meet in what should be an epic semifinal in the Rose Bowl. Michigan was the more consistent team through the year, but Alabama's talent is second to none. The Wolverines offense has struggled a bit to get going at times this year. The Wolverines defense has been solid as ever this year. Michigan defensively has no clear weakness. The Wolverines are 6th in YPC allowed and 6th in the country in opposing QBR allowed. While Alabama has been quite explosive on offense, Michigan has done a great job not giving up big plays this season. Alabama's offense has relied more on explosives than normal. Milroe is a fantastic play maker, but he does take too many big negative plays. I think the Michigan pass rush can give him a difficult time here. The Alabama defense is supremely talented. They are good against the run, and the secondary is elite. Michigan is 112th in explosiveness on offense. The Wolverines are just 75th in the country in yards per carry. Without Zinter, their best offensive lineman, I think Michigan will have a hard time just running it right at Alabama here. Michigan is dead last (133rd) in the country in pace of play. The Wolverines are going to be happy to move very slowly and take a lot of time on their drives. Alabama is 105th in tempo, so they play pretty slowly as well. I like the defenses to make it hard for the opposing offenses here. Take the under. |
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12-31-23 | Bengals v. Chiefs -6.5 | 17-25 | Win | 100 | 16 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL ATS Play of the Week* The Cincinnati Bengals play hard for Zac Taylor, and Jake Browning has done a good job overall as the backup quarterback, but they are up against it here. Kansas City is coming off a rare horrible performance from this past weekend in their loss to Las Vegas. The Chiefs are in a great bounce back spot. Kansas City has a top six or eight defense in the NFL. The Bengals defense ranks bottom three in the NFL in most major categories. Cincinnati has been giving up far too many big plays in the passing game. I think Mahomes and the Chiefs offense will be able to right the ship in this spot. Cincinnati is still badly shorthanded. Chase will either play and be less than 100% or he will miss the game. DJ Reader is a huge loss for the Bengals defense. There is a lot more film on Browning now and I think he will continue to come back down to earth. Take Kansas City. |
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12-31-23 | Rams v. Giants OVER 43.5 | 26-25 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The LA Rams offense has been on fire of late. The Rams are second in the NFL in yards per play in their last three games at 6.2 yards per play. Los Angeles has scored 28 points or more in five straight games. They have scored 30 points or more in four of those five games. The Giants defense is a below average unit. It is hard to see this Giants secondary slowing down Stafford and the Rams good receivers in the passing game. New York's offense hasn't been great, but it has improved of late. They are averaging 4.9 yards per play in their last three games. The Rams defense has been giving up a lot of points late in recent games after they have a lead. New York should get chances to score later in the game even if they aren't efficient early on. Five Rams games in a row have finished with 48 points or more. I think this total is set too low. Take the over. |
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12-30-23 | Lions v. Cowboys -5.5 | 19-20 | Loss | -115 | 78 h 43 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Cowboys* The Dallas Cowboys have been dominant at home. Dallas is 7-0 at home this season. The Detroit Lions have been questionable on the road, and they are coming off clinching the divisional crown. Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense are going against a Lions defense that simply isn't very good. Prescott has 20 TD's and 2 INT's at home. The Lions are a bottom six or eight pass defense in the NFL. The Cowboys have the star receivers to take advantage of the secondary weakness for Detroit. Dallas is coming off a close loss to Miami where they played pretty well. This is a circle the wagons spot for them and it is a sell high spot on Detroit. Take Dallas. |
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12-30-23 | Toledo v. Wyoming -110 | 15-16 | Win | 100 | 580 h 43 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Wyoming* The Toledo Rockets star quarterback DeQuan Finn announced he is in the transfer portal. The Rockets star offensive lineman Vinny Sciury did the same thing. Toledo's coach Jason Candle is in the running for several coaching openings. This Toledo team is not the same as it was in the middle of the season. Jason Candle's teams have been terrible in the postseason too. Candle's teams are 1-5 ATS in bowl games. They have failed to cover in five straight. In the six bowl games, Candle's teams have an average ATS margin of -9 points, so they haven't been close. Craig Bohl announced he will retire after this season, but he will be coaching this bowl game. The players love Bohl, and I would expect a highly motivated Cowboys team here trying to send him off a winner. Bohl's teams have always been really well prepared for bowl games. At Wyoming, he is 4-0-1 ATS in his five bowl games. Wyoming's average ATS margin in those games is an impressive +10.4 points. With the line where it is right around zero, I'll take the moneyline here. I like the spot for Wyoming in this one. This one is much closer to home for them as well, and the MAC has been one of the worst conferences ATS in bowl season in the long term. Take Wyoming. |
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12-29-23 | Memphis v. Iowa State OVER 57 | 36-26 | Win | 100 | 24 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Memphis Tigers have been able to make almost every game they play in a shootout this year. In fact, eight of their last nine games have gone over this total. The one that didn't go over was still at 52 points. The Memphis defense gives up loads of big plays. They have given up 71 plays of 20 yards or more on the season. Iowa State is first in the nation in explosiveness on offense. Becht has done a great job as quarterback for the Cyclones. Iowa State's secondary was pretty good during the year, but they are shorthanded here. TJ Tampa is a star in the secondary and he has opted out. Malik Verdell is injured and is questionable to play too. Seth Henigan and the Memphis offense should be able to do enough to get this game over the number. Memphis is averaging 39.6 points per game this year. This is a better defense than they usually face, but I think the Memphis team speed on offense can get them some scores. Iowa State has a huge advantage on offense, and I like Memphis to be able to score when playing from behind. Take the over. |
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12-28-23 | Jets v. Browns -6.5 | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 93 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Browns* The Cleveland Browns will host the New York Jets on Thursday night. Cleveland is playing very good football right now. The Browns downfield passing game is much better with Joe Flacco than it was with any of the other quarterbacks they have had earlier in the season. The Cleveland defense has been absolutely shut down material at home. Opponents are only averaging 3.5 yards per play against the Browns in Cleveland. No other team in the NFL is allowing less than 4.4 YPP at home. The Jets have turned to Trevor Siemian at quarterback. Even though they scored 30 points against Washington, the offense wasn't very good. They averaged only 4.5 YPP. The game before the Jets averaged a miserable 1.9 YPP with him at quarterback. I don't expect them to have success in Cleveland against the Browns elite defense. Thursday night favorites from game 11 on through the end of the NFL season have hit 61% ATS (77-49-1 ATS). I like the home favorite here. This line has shifted a bit during the week- I would play this as high as -8. Take Cleveland. |
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12-28-23 | SMU v. Boston College UNDER 50.5 | 14-23 | Win | 100 | 141 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The SMU Mustangs defense was underrated all season long. SMU ranked fourth in success rate allowed in the country. They were 12th in the nation in YPC allowed. The strong run defense of SMU is key here since Boston College runs it on 60% of their plays for the year as a whole. Boston College has been even more run heavy in recent weeks. Castellanos for Boston College has been banged up and the BC offense has been much more buttoned up of late. Boston College comes into this game very short handed at both running back and wide receiver based on the transfer portal. I don't trust the BC offense to get much done here. SMU is without Preston Stone at quarterback. They are more conservative with Jennings at quarterback. This Mustangs offense is solid, but not spectacular. Fenway Park is the venue here and this game has a history of a lot of windy games with poor weather in general. It's an 11 am eastern kickoff in Boston in winter. The long range forecast calls for rain showers and a decent amount of wind. I like the under even without weather, but this could be a nice bonus too. Take the under. |
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12-24-23 | Browns v. Texans OVER 40 | 36-22 | Win | 100 | 71 h 32 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Browns defense has been amazing at home this year. The Browns defense has been mediocre on the road. Cleveland is allowing just 3.5 yards per play at home. They are giving up 5.9 yards per play on the road. Houston does have a backup quarterback here in Case Keenum, but with another week under his belt it should help at least some. Nico Collins is back at practice Thursday which is a positive development too. The Cleveland offense has been much improved with Joe Flacco at quarterback. Their pass rate has gone up a bunch too. Cleveland's offense is taking more shots down the field, and that is a positive development for over bettors in my opinion. Cleveland has a solid 5.2 yards per play on offense in their last three games. This game being played in a dome which is definitely a positive for the over. At a low number, I'll side with the over here. |
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12-24-23 | Seahawks v. Titans OVER 41.5 | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Seattle Seahawks take on the Tennessee Titans in Nashville on Sunday. Seattle is set to have Geno Smith back at quarterback in this one. Smith is still a better quarterback than Drew Lock, and Seattle has some good skill position talent around him. The Seahawks offense is healthier than they have been in quite a while. The Tennessee Titans are a below average defense. They are now even weaker with their significant injury issues. Simmons is a star lineman, and they miss him badly. The secondary is very shorthanded as well. Look for the Seattle receivers to get open a lot in this one. Ryan Tannehill is set to be the starter for the Titans here. While Levis has shown some ability, I actually think Tannehill is at least slightly better than Levis right now. Tannehill has a lot to prove right now too, so I expect him to be aggressive. The Seattle defense is bottom five in the NFL in the last three games, and they are definitely a bottom ten unit for the year overall. This is a low total for the shape of the two defenses here. Take the over. |
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12-23-23 | James Madison v. Air Force +3 | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 290 h 33 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Air Force* The James Madison Dukes have had a fantastic season. James Madison did lose a great head coach in Curt Cignetti now when he left for Indiana. James Madison has had to hire five temporary coaches to help them get ready for this game . The Dukes also have at least eight guys in the transfer portal. At least some of them will play in this game, but I don't think all of them will. Also, Jalen Green their star DE is hurt and should miss this game. Their best offensive lineman (Wyatt) is injured too. Air Force didn't finish the season playing well, but they are expected to be much healthier for this bowl game. Larrier is a star at quarterback and reports say he is practicing and will probably play in this one. This is the Armed Forces Bowl and this game absolutely means a lot to Air Force. The service academy teams have a long history of playing hard and covering in bowl games. In fact, service academy teams are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 bowl games. This is a buy low spot for an Air Force team that has a high upside. Take Air Force. |
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12-19-23 | UTSA -9.5 v. Marshall | 35-17 | Win | 100 | 199 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on UTSA* The Marshall Thundering Herd have some major chemistry issues. Head Coach Charles Huff has fired several assistant coaches. The Thundering Herd have lost their starting quarterback (Fancher) to the portal. Marshall will be without star center Trent Holler and starting WR Caleb Coombs. I don't like the trajectory of this program. UTSA has never won a bowl game. The Roadrunners dominated Troy last year, but lost 18-12 due to five turnovers. Troy only had 160 yards and 2.5 yards per play in that game. UTSA will be highly motivated to try to get that first bowl victory here. Senior Frank Harris would love nothing more than to go out on a high note. UTSA gets to play in Texas here and they'll have a big crowd advantage in this game. Marshall's defense was 124th in explosiveness allowed this year. UTSA was 23rd in explosiveness on offense. UTSA's defense got better and better as the year went on. Marshall was second to last in the Sun Belt in scoring. I don't think they can keep up. Take UTSA. |
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12-17-23 | Cowboys v. Bills UNDER 50 | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 52 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The weather situations have gotten worse for this game. This is a late game on Sunday and the forecast calls for sustained winds of 16 mph with gusts in the 20's. There is expected to be rain showers at times during the game too. Buffalo absolutely has to win this game. The Bills are definitely playing better of late, and it has been their defense that has improved the most. They are getting a bit healthier on defense. Buffalo is giving up just 4.8 yards per play in their last three games. The Bills have also allowed only 4.8 yards per play at home this year. Dallas has been excellent on defense this year. They are giving up just 4.9 yards per play on the season. The Cowboys have done a good job limiting the big plays. Both of these teams are in the bottom ten in the NFL in pace of play. In this year's NFL this is a fairly high total. Take the under. |
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12-17-23 | Bears v. Browns -3 | 17-20 | Push | 0 | 141 h 17 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Browns* The Cleveland Browns have played well at home this year, especially on the defensive end. Cleveland is giving up just 3.5 YPP at home on the season. Even in last Sunday's game against Jacksonville, the team only gave up 4.0 YPP. Chicago is coming in off a couple straight good performances, but I think this is a good sell high spot on Chicago. The Bears offense is still just averaging 4.8 YPP in their last three games and those have been against pretty weak defenses. Joe Flacco has been pretty solid for the Browns since joining the fold. He has clearly been an upgrade over the guys they were playing at quarterback in recent weeks. The Browns should be able to do enough on offense against a Bears defense that I still consider an average unit at best. I'll lay the 3 here. Take Cleveland. |
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12-17-23 | Falcons v. Panthers UNDER 34 | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 84 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Carolina Panthers offense is the worst offense in the NFL. It isn't even close. Carolina is averaging a dreadful 4.0 yards per play. The second worst offense in the NFL is at 4.3 yards per play. It has gotten worse in recent weeks too for Carolina, and I see no signs of improvement coming soon. Atlanta is averaging just 4.4 yards per play on the road. Desmond Ridder has been pretty good at home and terrible on the road. These two defenses rank 10th (Atlanta) and 11th (Carolina) in yards per play allowed this year. These are defenses that have a clear advantage going into this game. The weather here calls for rain and winds in the 15 to 25 mph range during this game. This is a field that has been a problem in the past with rain based on poor footing. Take the under here. |
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12-16-23 | New Mexico State -3 v. Fresno State | 10-37 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on New Mexico State* Jerry Kill is a fantastic coach. He is 69-54 ATS as a head coach. Kill has shown the ability to really develop players very well. New Mexico State has completely bought into this system. I expect this team to be excited to be playing in this game in Albuquerque. This is a very short trip and their home fans should be here in large numbers. Diego Pavia is a gamer and after missing quite a bit of time in their loss to Liberty due to an injury he is expected to play in this one. New Mexico State is 4th in the nation in YPC and Fresno State is 81st in YPC allowed. A clear mismatch in that area. In fact, New Mexico is 5th in the country in offensive line yards. Jerry Kill knows how to coach up an offensive line. Fresno State's rushing attack is 112th in the nation in rushing play success rate. The weakness of the New Mexico State defense has been the run defense, but I don't think Fresno State can take advantage of that here. Fresno State Coach Jeff Tedford has stepped away from the team due to health concerns. Jeff Skipper will be the interim coach here. They have had a good season, but I see this as a subpar matchup stylistically for them, and Fresno State has far more question marks entering this game. Take New Mexico State. |
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12-10-23 | Broncos +3 v. Chargers | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 76 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Broncos* The LA Chargers aren't a team that can lay many points. They play a close game in nearly every single game. The Chargers make strange decisions thanks to Brandon Staley and they find ways to not score in spots where they should. The Chargers defense isn't good. They are 28th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Broncos have played much better in recent weeks. I do believe the Broncos have a good coaching staff, and I like the trajectory of the team. The Broncos were 0/11 on third down last week and turned the ball over three times and they still nearly won at Houston. Denver is improving defensively, and I rate their offense as a pretty good one. The Chargers have virtually no home field advantage. With them laying three points against a team that is playing good football, I have to take the points. Take Denver. |
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12-10-23 | Bills v. Chiefs OVER 48.5 | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Buffalo Bills offense is still a top five offense in the NFL. Without Ken Dorsey, this Bills offense has been more aggressive and they have looked to run Josh Allen more often. The Bills defense is still a bit banged up and this unit is no better than an average NFL unit at best. Kansas City's offense has been less explosive in general, but the Chiefs are still top 8 in the NFL in yards per play. The Chiefs have to be aggressive here on offense coming off such a poor performance in Green Bay last week. The Chiefs defense has quietly really fallen off of late. They have allowed 5.6 YPP in their last three games. I think both offenses should play well here. Take the over. |
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12-10-23 | Jaguars v. Browns UNDER 36.5 | 27-31 | Loss | -110 | 141 h 8 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Browns offense is a mess right now. Regardless of who is the quarterback for this game, it will be a position where the Browns have a clear weakness. Cleveland's offense is third worst in the NFL in yards per play in the last three games. They are only ahead of the lowly Panthers and Jets. The Cleveland defense is one of the best in the NFL and they are holding opponents to an average of just 3.4 yards per play when at home. Cleveland's defense had a subpar performance against the Rams, and I would expect a bounce back here. The Jaguars offense is middle of the pack in the NFL. The defense is a little worse, but they are against a weak offense here. The weather could play a major role in this game. The current forecast for this one calls for rain and winds of about 25 mph with gusts above 30 mph. Multiple sites are showing similar forecasts here. We know Cleveland is a place where the weather matters a lot with the stadium so close to the lake. Take the under here. |
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12-10-23 | Lions v. Bears OVER 43 | 13-28 | Loss | -108 | 48 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions have been scoring a lot of points, and their defense has shown to have major problems in recent weeks. In the Lions last four games, there has been an average combined total of 61.5 points. Detroit is allowing 5.6 yards per play in their last three games. This is looking like a bottom ten defense or so. The Lions are clearly a top five offense too. Detroit has good balance on offense and they have been able to cash in well in the red zone. The Chicago Bears offense is improving. The Bears scored 26 points on Detroit a couple weeks ago and they probably should have won the game in Detroit. The Bears defense is still a below average unit. The total here was pushed down earlier in the week due to potential weather concerns. The forecast here has changed though and the current weather calls for no precipitation and winds of just 12 mph. Take the over. |
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12-03-23 | 49ers -3 v. Eagles | 42-19 | Win | 100 | 16 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on 49ers* The San Francisco 49ers are in a great situational spot here. San Francisco has had 10 days to prepare for this massive game. The 49ers should be extremely motivated after their loss to the Eagles in the NFC Championship Game last year. San Francisco essentially didn't have a quarterback for about 3/4 of that game. The Eagles have been skating by a lot of late. Philadelphia has had big game after big game and they've had to come back from fairly large margins week after week. The Eagles are a very good team, but they aren't in their best form right now and they have a lot of key injuries. Lane Johnson is banged up as is Fletcher Cox and those are two really key guys on each side of the ball. San Francisco is 2nd in the NFL in yards per play margin. They are +1.6 YPP on the season. The Eagles are just +0.2 YPP. The 49ers had extra time to prepare and they are the healthier team. Take San Francisco. |
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12-03-23 | Broncos v. Texans OVER 47 | 17-22 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 43 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Houston Texans are 5th in the NFL in yards per play this year. C.J. Stroud and the Texans offense has surprised the NFL in general. Tank Dell has been a great weapon on the outside. Houston would have had bigger numbers on offense last week against Jacksonville if it weren't for a couple questionable penalties called on big gainers. The Texans are unlikely to be slowed down too much by a Denver defense that is still clearly below average. Their recent numbers look better, but their last two games have been against backup quarterbacks. The defense of the Broncos gets a much tougher test here. The Denver Broncos offense is at least an average unit now. The new coaching staff has really helped them a lot. Denver has scored 21 points or more in four straight games. They now go play in a dome against a Houston defense that is allowing 6.3 YPP in their last three games. The fast track here and two offenses with the capability of creating explosive plays at any time. Take the over. |
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12-03-23 | Chargers v. Patriots UNDER 40 | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 22 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The New England Patriots defense is still pretty good. The Patriots are 8th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. New England's defense is put in bad spots, but they are still a quality unit. The LA Chargers have shown the ability to move the ball well, but find ways to not score touchdowns. I think the Patriots can slow them down and limit the explosive plays. New England has a terrible quarterback problem, and they do lack skill position players in general on offense. The Pats offense has progressively gotten worse throughout the year. The weather here calls for rain throughout the game with wind gusts of 20 mph. This should make for some more conservative play calls during the game. Take the under. |
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12-02-23 | Louisville v. Florida State UNDER 48 | 6-16 | Win | 100 | 80 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* FSU put up just 3.9 yards per play on a bad Florida defense last week. I know it is a rivalry game, but that is concerning. Florida had been getting torched weekly until last week. FSU 4th in explosiveness on offense for the year, but likely less explosive with Tate Rodemaker at QB. Louisville defense 40th in YPP allowed, but 21st at PFF in overall defense grade. 6th in defensive line yards. FSU is 111th in offensive line yards. I don’t think FSU can just run it down their throats. Louisville 91st in OFF Line yards. FSU 13th in DEF Line yards. I think the Cardinals ground game has trouble getting going too. The FSU defense has been underrated throughout the season. Louisville's Plummer has been inconsistent at quarterback this year. There is some rain and a little wind in the forecast as well. Take the under. |
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12-02-23 | SMU v. Tulane UNDER 47.5 | 26-14 | Win | 100 | 76 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Preston Stone is a key loss for SMU at quarterback. Jennings has very little experience at quarterback. SMU gave up just 4.4 yards per play in the AAC. Amazing! The Mustangs held 4 of their last 7 opponents to 14 points or less. Tulane’s offense didn’t really work nearly as well as expected this year. Tulane was 108th in rushing play success rate on offense- very low for a Willie Fritz coached team. SMU 11th in rushing play success rate allowed. SMU has a great pass rush. 5th in the country in pass rush grade at PFF. 40 sacks!! Pratt is good but I think he’ll be under pressure more than normal here. Tulane plays at a slow pace. They run on 60% of offensive plays. SMU offense should be a bit more conservative with Jennings. If anything I would expect more running. The Tulane run defense has been elite. The way to beat the Tulane defense has been passing. Take the under. |
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12-02-23 | Miami-OH v. Toledo UNDER 44 | 23-14 | Win | 100 | 22 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Toledo Rockets won 17-7 last year in the MAC Title game against an Ohio Bobcats team without their star quarterback. Toledo ran the ball over and over again in that game and grinded it out. Now, Toledo goes into the title game in the MAC against a Miami team without star quarterback Brett Gabbert. Aveon Smith has struggled badly for Miami. Miami is going to want to run the football as much as they can and move very slowly. They don't want a high scoring game, because their offense simply isn't good enough to win shootouts. Toledo does give up successful running plays, but they are excellent in the secondary and they don't give up explosive plays. Miami's drives should take a bunch of time off the clock. Toledo had just 4.3 yards per play in their 21-17 win over Miami in the regular season. The Rockets want to run the ball a lot, but Miami has the best run defense in the MAC. Miami has allowed 21 points or fewer in every MAC game they have played this year. I don't think we'll see many big plays here. Toledo likely wins, but Miami's defense won't make it easy. Take the under. |
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11-26-23 | Chiefs v. Raiders UNDER 43.5 | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 36 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Chiefs defense is still underrated. Kansas City fourth in the NFL in defensive DVOA. They have allowed just 4.7 yards per play in their last three games. Las Vegas has changed their style of play for their new coach. They are running the ball more and trying to keep games lower scoring and win with defense. The Raiders defense is 16th in DVOA and they have a strong pass rush. These two teams are both top eight in the NFL in explosiveness allowed. They don't give up the big plays very often. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the NFL in tempo. Las Vegas has had nine games in a row stay under this posted total. The Chiefs have had 3 straight games go under this posted total. A combined 12 straight games under this total. Take the under. |
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11-26-23 | Bills v. Eagles OVER 48 | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 16 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Buffalo Bills are third in the NFL in yards per play and all the advanced stats still show this Buffalo offense as a top five offense. Josh Allen and this offense looked good against a good Jets defense last week in their first week without Dorsey as OC. Buffalo's passing attack has a nice edge over the Eagles secondary. Philadelphia's one weakness as a team is their secondary. I think Buffalo can take advantage of that weakness. The Philadelphia Eagles offense has been a little inconsistent this year, but I think they can play well against a Buffalo defense that isn't good in its current state. The Bills defense has suffered a ton of key injuries. These two teams rank 16th and 17th in yards per play allowed. Both offenses have big play ability. Rain is the in forecast, but there isn't any wind to speak of in the forecast and that is the big key. Take the over. |
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11-26-23 | Jaguars v. Texans +2 | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Texans* The Houston Texans are trended in the right direction in a big way. I like the culture and chemistry this team has under DeMeco Ryans. They clearly want to play very hard for him. Houston's offense is first in the NFL in yards per play in the last three games. C.J. Stroud has been fantastic, and he has enough weapons to spread it around nicely. The Jacksonville defense is 26th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. I'm not convinced they can stop Stroud and the Texans. Jacksonville's offense is just 18th in the league in yards per play. Jacksonville has been outgained on average this year, but has managed to get to 7-3. I think the Jags are overvalued in the marketplace right now. Take Houston. |
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11-25-23 | Maryland v. Rutgers UNDER 46 | 42-24 | Loss | -110 | 134 h 3 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Rutgers defense ranks first in explosiveness allowed. The Maryland defense ranks 8th in explosiveness allowed. These two are very good at not giving up that huge play. Rutgers is 127th in the nation in tempo. The Scarlet Knights are going to play slowly, and they are going to run the football as often as possible. Rutgers is 10th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Schiano's defenses always play very hard and this one is no different. The strength of their defense is their secondary. Maryland likes to throw the ball and Rutgers should have the guys to slow them down. Maryland's defense is much improved this year. They are 25th in the nation in yards per play allowed. The Rutgers offense has scored 16 points total in the last two years against Maryland. They will likely struggle again here. Rutgers is much better defensively this year than the last two years. Take the under. |
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11-25-23 | Virginia Tech v. Virginia OVER 52.5 | 55-17 | Win | 100 | 25 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Virginia Tech Hokies offense has hit a whole new gear in recent weeks. With Drones at quarterback instead of Wells, this is a much more explosive offense. Drones has been very good running and good enough in the passing game too. VA Tech put up 7.6 yards per play on a very good NC State defense last week. They put up 8.3 YPP two weeks ago on the Boston College defense. Virginia has a good young quarterback in Colandrea. He is a big play guy either way at this stage in his career. He throws too many picks and a pick six is always a possibility, but he is creating big plays for the Cavs on offense too. Virginia has 6.4 YPP on a good Louisville defense two weeks ago and an impressive 6.3 YPP against Duke last week too. Virginia has picked up their pace of late. These two teams are 114th and 120th in the country in explosiveness allowed. The weather calls for a nice day here. Expect some big plays. Take the over. |
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11-25-23 | Georgia State v. Old Dominion -2.5 | 24-25 | Loss | -110 | 86 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Old Dominion* The Old Dominion Monarchs are really fired up to try to become bowl eligible here. Old Dominion picked up a nice win 20-17 at GA Southern last week. Old Dominion has been highly competitive even against the best teams in the Sun Belt. I don't like the trends I'm seeing from GA State lately. Discounting last week's game (huge talent disadvantage against LSU), I just don't think this team is trending in the right direction. They were beaten by 17 at GA Southern. They lost by 28 at home to James Madison. They lost by 28 at home to App State. Old Dominion has played a tougher schedule than Georgia State. They also are +0.12 YPP margin. GA State is -0.84 YPP on the season. Inside the Sun Belt, the difference is even more drastic. Old Dominion is +0.59 YPP and GA State is way back at -1.20 YPP. Georgia State's defense is the weakest unit on the field here. They are 128th in yards per play allowed this year. Old Dominion has been able to hit some explosives in the running game and that should work here against a Georgia State defense that ranks 15th out of 16 teams in the Sun Belt. GA State already has six wins. Old Dominion is fighting hard to get to six wins. I think Ricky Rahne is a good head coach, and I think he'll have ODU ready. Take Old Dominion. |
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11-25-23 | Middle Tennessee State v. Sam Houston State OVER 48.5 | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 32 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders passing attack has been much better in the last few weeks. Quarterback Nicholas Vattiato has 12 touchdown passes compared to just 4 interceptions in MTSU's last four games. The offense has picked up their pace significantly too, and it has been working. Sam Houston State's offense was dreadul early in the season, but they have been much better in the last five games. Both teams are snapping the ball every 24.1 seconds which is far quicker than the national average. A total set this low for a game played at this pace is pretty rare unless there are elite defenses. The MTSU defense is 77th in the nation in YPP allowed and Sam Houston is 99th. MTSU is 11th in the nation in explosiveness on offense. It's the last game for both and I think the offenses will show up. Take the over. |
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11-25-23 | Houston v. Central Florida -14 | 13-27 | Push | 0 | 21 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on UCF* Houston has disappointed this year. UCF has been better than their record would indicate. UCF is 2nd in the Big 12 in YPP margin. Impressive. UCF needs this game to be bowl eligible. I'm confident they’ll be highly motivated here. Will Houston be motivated? Not sure. Houston’s DLine was once a big strength but now a weakness. UCF 1st in Big 12 in YPC and Houston is giving up 4.25 ypc on the year. Houston hasn't played well at all away from home. Big favorites late in the season in conference play have done very well. I like the situational spot for UCF with them fighting hard to get to a bowl game. Take UCF. |
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11-25-23 | Texas A&M v. LSU OVER 65 | 30-42 | Win | 100 | 21 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Jayden Daniels has impressed me the most of any player in the country this year. He was very good last year in Brian Kelly's system, but this year he has been elite. LSU is clearly putting up as many stats as possible for Daniels to try to get him the Heisman Trophy. Daniels is one of the two favorites (Bo Nix) for the award. Nix is likely to get more games to play while Daniels will not. This is LSU's last chance to feature Daniels and put up a big number. The Texas A&M secondary is banged up right now, and LSU should be able to hit some explosive plays on them. Texas A&M has a good defense overall, but Miami put up 48 points on them and Ole Miss scored 38. The LSU offense is the best one they have faced all seaosn. The LSU defense is one of the worst in the SEC. While we don't know if it will be Henderson or Johnson at quarterback for A&M here, I think they can score enough regardless. LSU has allowed 117 plays of 10 yards or more this year. LSU will score a lot here. I expect A&M to do enough too. Take the over. |
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11-24-23 | UTSA +3.5 v. Tulane | 16-29 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on UTSA* The UTSA Roadrunners first in the AAC in yards per play margin. UTSA has a veteran leader at quarterback in Frank Harris. Harris was injured at the beginning of the year and that really slowed the team down, but he is healthy and firing on all cylinders. UTSA has the top ranked defense in the conference. Rashad Wisdom is a great safety and UTSA's defensive line has stuffed the run well too. They are giving up just 3.15 ypc in conference play. Tulane is 2-5 ATS in the AAC. The Green Wave are a good team, but they have just barely been squeaking by consistently. UTSA has been far more dominant on a consistent basis. UTSA is 28th in pass play success rate on offense. Tulane is 108th in pass play success rate allowed. I think this is a good matchup for Harris and the UTSA passing game. Tulane lacks the strong running game they have had in previous years. I think this will be a very close game, so I'll take the dog here. Take UTSA. |
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11-21-23 | Eastern Michigan v. Buffalo UNDER 41 | 24-11 | Win | 100 | 51 h 22 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Eastern Michigan Eagles take on the Buffalo Bulls in Buffalo on Tuesday night. Eastern Michigan and Buffalo are 9th and 10th in the MAC in yards per play on offense. Buffalo had high scoring games in the non conference, but in MAC contests they have had a bunch of low scoring games. Buffalo has seen 5 of their 7 games in the MAC finish at 38 total points or lower. Eastern Michigan has had five games finish at 36 points or lower. These two are the least explosive offenses in the MAC. They rarely get big plays and the defenses should have the edge. The weather should play a big role here. There is rain in the forecast with sustained winds 17 mph and gusts to 25 mph. That should make the play calling even more conservative. Take the under. |
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11-20-23 | Eagles v. Chiefs UNDER 45.5 | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 41 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce and company, but their defense has actually been their stronger unit this year. Kansas City is 5th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Chiefs have played nine games this year, and six of the nine have stayed under this total. Their highest final total has been 51 points. The Philadelphia Eagles are just 11th in the NFL in yards per play this year. They haven't been as explosive on offense this year as expected. The Eagles defense should be able to get pressure against a mediocre KC offensive line. The weather here could play a role. The forecast is calling for winds of 15 mph with gusts of 25 mph during this game. There is also a chance of showers. Take the under here. |
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11-19-23 | Raiders v. Dolphins -13 | 13-20 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Dolphins* The Miami Dolphins have shown the ability and the willingness to beat up on weaker team this year. Yes, I know the Raiders have a 5-5 record. I still think the Raiders are a weak team. The Raiders beat up on the Tommy Devito led Giants who are the worst team in the NFL right now. They then edged out Wilson and the Jets despite being outgained pretty badly. Las Vegas still has a bunch of problems as a team. They have averaged 4.4 YPP or less in three of their last four games. Miami is going to score here. Tua and the cast around him are really dangerous. The Raiders defense is mediocre at best. They do give up big plays in the passing attack. They haven't been playing teams who can take advantage of that recently, but that changes here. The Dolphins are off a bye week and are much healthier now. I'll lay the points here. Take Miami. |
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11-19-23 | Cardinals v. Texans OVER 47.5 | 16-21 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Cardinals should be a different offense now that Kyler Murray is back. We saw it already last week with Arizona putting up 5.9 YPP and 25 points against a pretty good Atlanta Falcons defense. Murray just gives them far more big play ability than anyone else they had all season. Conner being back is very helpful as well. C.J. Stroud has been amazing in his rookie season. Stroud has done a remarkable job of hitting a bunch of explosive plays while still not turning the ball over much. He is playing like a top 8 or 10 quarterback already. These are both below average defenses. They aren't very good in the secondary, and I think that will be exploited here. This is on a fast track in the dome which is helpful. Take the over. |
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11-18-23 | Washington v. Oregon State -2 | 22-20 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Oregon State* They say styles make fights and that is absolutely true in college football. What is Washington’s Achilles Heel as a team? Stopping the run! They are 130th in success rate allowed against the run. Oregon State 2nd in rushing play success rate. Oregon State is about to play some serious smash mouth football. Oregon State #1 in run blocking grade at PFF. The Beavers OLine is so much better than many people realize. DJU has done a nice job doing what he has to do at QB. Oregon State has only 8 turnovers all season.  Oregon State is finishing drives at an elite rate. They have 30 touchdowns on 37 trips into the red zone. Oregon State has a massive home field advantage. They are 16-1 SU here and 14-1 ATS in the last 15 here (average cover by nearly 10 points). The Washington passing game is very good, but Oregon State's secondary is top 25 in coverage grade at PFF. it will just take a couple key stops or a turnover or two for Washington, and Oregon State and their consistently successful offense will have control. I like the Beavers in this spot. Take Oregon State. |
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11-18-23 | New Mexico State v. Auburn -23.5 | 31-10 | Loss | -110 | 85 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Auburn* The New Mexico State Aggies will play Liberty in the CUSA Title game. New Mexico State's star quarterback and overall play maker Diego Pavia was banged up last game and Coach Jerry Kill said his status is in question for this game. It wouldn't make much sense to play Pavia in a game against an SEC foe with a strong defense when you are pointing towards finishing the CUSA season and trying to a win a conference title. It would surprise me if Pavia plays in this game. Eli Stowers is the backup and he has been playing WR/TE most of the year. He has thrown 8 passes all year and two of them have been turnover worthy plays. Auburn's RPO game has been working much better of late. The Tigers are rounding into form late in the season. I know they have Alabama on deck, but I think Hugh Freeze wants to go into that game with momentum. Hugh Freeze coached teams are 26-12 ATS as a favorite of 14 points or more. The strength of schedule disparity (#150 Sagarin SOS for NM State and #36 for Auburn) here is about as big as you'll ever see this late in the season. Take Auburn. |
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11-18-23 | NC State v. Virginia Tech UNDER 45.5 | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 136 h 55 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The NC State Wolfpack have gone full out stall mode on offense of late. In their last three games they are the second slowest paced team in the country. NC State is a run heavy offense that doesn't have much explosiveness at all. NC State is 114th in explosiveness in the country. The VA Tech defense has given up some big plays, but on a down to down basis they have been good. I don't think NC State is the type of team who can break those big gainers. VA Tech's defense is 23rd in the country in havoc. They are 24th in success rate allowed. VA Tech's offense has been much better with Kyron Drones at quarterback. They are running about 60% of the time on offense. NC State's defense has been excellent of late. The Wolfpack are 17th defensive line yards and 22nd in rushing play success rate allowed. VA Tech ranks in the bottom ten in the country in terms of tempo in the last three games alone. Two running teams with very slow paced offenses. NC State's last four games have finished: 24-3, 24-17, 20-6, and 26-6. Four of their last six games have finished with a total of 32 points or fewer. Take the under here. *This line has moved since I selected it early this week. I would still take this as long as it is at or above the key number of 41. Thanks and good luck.* |
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11-18-23 | Temple v. UAB OVER 62.5 | 24-34 | Loss | -108 | 26 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The UAB Blazers had a rare very poor showing on offense last week. Navy slowed that game down and UAB didn't play to their potential on offense. UAB overall for the season though is 25th in success rate on offense and the Blazers have scored 35 points or more four times. On the other side, UAB has allowed 41 points or more six times. UAB's tempo is 19th quickest in the country and that often turns their games into shootouts. Temple's offensive stats are skewed because E.J. Warner missed time and the Owls offense could do nothing in his absence. With Warner in the fold, Temple's offense is very good throwing the football. The Owls are 17th in tempo in the country. Temple's defense is 110th in YPP allowed in the country. They are especially terrible against the pass. Jacob Zeno is a good quarterback for UAB and he should have success. Temple has allowed 36 points or more six times this year. I see a back and forth game. Take the over. |
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11-18-23 | Michigan v. Maryland UNDER 50 | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan Wolverines didn't throw a single pass in the second half against Penn State. Michigan just edged their way down the field and controlled things with the running game. One major reason Michigan running the football so much is important to a total is the Wolverines ranks 132nd (or second slowest) in tempo in the country. They move very methodically. Michigan is 103rd in the country in explosiveness. I have little doubt they'll move the ball well against Maryland, but it should take a lot of time off the clock. Maryland is 13th in the country in explosiveness allowed, so they don't give up big plays very often. The Michigan defense is 3rd in the country in success rate allowed. They are second in opposing QBR allowed. Michigan is 19th in YPC allowed, but Maryland is only 93rd in the nation in YPC. Michigan has Ohio State next week and the Wolverines would be well suited to get a lead and get out of here with a win playing conservatively. The weather here is a plus too. The blend of four forecasts calls for 16 mph winds with gusts of about 28 mph here. That tends to make teams both more conservative and helps the defenses. Take the under. |
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11-16-23 | Bengals v. Ravens OVER 44 | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 94 h 8 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Bengals offense has really improved a lot of late with Joe Burrow getting healthy and the unit coming into its own. The Bengals are averaging 26.6 points per game in their last five games. The early season poor results from the offense means little at this point. On the other side though, the Bengals defense is looking far worse than it did a year ago. Cincinnati is now second to last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Texans offense torched them on Sunday for 544 yards. This defense has been a problem spot this year for Cincinnati. Baltimore is averaging 32.2 points per game in their last five games. They have scored 31 points or more in four straight contests. The Ravens defense is very good, but Burrow and the Bengals have scored 24, 24, and 27 points on them in the last three head to head meetings. The total earlier this year was 45.5 and it finished 27-24. Since then both offenses have improved quite a bit. Take the over. *This line has moved up some since early in the week, but I still rate this 4 star up to 47 and a 3 star play above that. Thanks and good luck* |
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11-12-23 | Commanders v. Seahawks -6 | 26-29 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Seattle* The Seattle Seahawks are coming off a blowout loss at Baltimore last week. The Ravens have made a habit of blowing out some pretty good teams at home this year. Seattle is a quality team and in the NFL good teams off of blowouts have bounced back well in the last decade. That is especially true when they are playing at home. Washington didn't have a good defense to start with and now they got rid of their star pass rushers. It didn't hurt them too badly against New England this week, but I expect Washington's defense to be very weak against solid opponents. The Seattle offense has a lot of weapons. The Washington offense is inconsistent with Sam Howell at quarterback. Seattle's defense is an improved unit on the whole. Seattle is +0.97 yards per play margin at home this year. Washington is -0.74 YPP margin on the road. I like the bounce back spot for the home team. Take Seattle. |
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11-12-23 | Giants v. Cowboys -17 | 17-49 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Cowboys* The Dallas Cowboys are favored by 17 here, and I almost never lay this many points in the NFL. In this case I think it is warranted. The New York Giants offensive line ranks last by a mile in PFF pass blocking grade. This unit is just atrocious. Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor are hurt so it is Tommy Devito starting for the Giants here. Devito is not an NFL quarterback. He struggled to keep his job at Syracuse in college. Dallas has an elite pass rush and they should make things miserable for Devito. Dallas has already won four games by more than this point spread this year. Dak Prescott is 27-11 ATS as a favorite of six points or more. Take Dallas. |
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11-12-23 | Falcons -1.5 v. Cardinals | 23-25 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Falcons* The Atlanta Falcons have underachieved a bit of late. They are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Vikings who were shorthanded in a big way. They now travel to take on the Cardinals. Arizona is arguably the worst team in the NFL. Kyler Murray will start this game for Arizona, but it has been a really long time since he has played and I am keeping my expectations lower for him here. The Falcons do have a pretty good defense. Drake London is back for the Falcons here and he gives them a really good WR on the outside. I do like Taylor Heinecke at quarterback as the better option than Ridder for the Falcons. If the Falcons want any chance at a playoff spot this year- this is a must win. Take Atlanta. |
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11-11-23 | Arizona State v. UCLA UNDER 46 | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 124 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The UCLA Bruins saw Ethan Garbers and Dante Moore both get banged up in their loss to Arizona last Saturday. Neither of them practiced on Monday. Ethan Garbers wasn't even at the practice and Moore watched practice without his helmet on. That leaves UCLA thin at QB and would make them more predictable on offense. Trenton Bourguet was injured very early in the Arizona State blowout loss to Utah. Because of other injuries, Arizona State was down to Jacob Conover (4th string QB) and he went 5/22 and was a disaster against Utah last week. Conover might be the man again Saturday. Coach Dillingham said if the game were today Bourguet wouldn't be able to play. The UCLA defense has been fantastic all year. Arizona State's defense has been better than expected. After a poor effort last week, I think the Sun Devils defense will at least play better here. Take the under. |
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11-11-23 | Washington State v. California OVER 59 | 39-42 | Win | 100 | 72 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The pace will help a lot here. Wash State 31st in tempo this year. Cal is 11th. Lots of pace and plenty of possessions here. The Cal defense is very bad. There are 123rd at PFF in defensive grade. They are also 130th in passing play success rate allowed. We know Washington St will throw it a bunch. 60% of their plays are a pass. Cam Ward is hot and cold, but I like his chances of having a good game against this secondary. Cal’s Dline 122nd in havoc rate. Wash State OLine poor in pass blocking, but they won’t get dominated here like they are some games. Cal’s strength on offense is clearly in the running game. Ott is a tremendous runner and they have some depth behind him and a fairly mobile QB. Wash St 100th in rush play success rate allowed. Wash State 11th in Pac 12 in YPC allowed. I think Cal gets the ground game going here. Washington State has had a couple lower scoring games of late which has kept this number down, but I think this sets up as a track meet type game with the offenses having a bunch of success. Take the over. |
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11-11-23 | Auburn v. Arkansas OVER 48 | 48-10 | Win | 100 | 49 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas Razorbacks are playing much different under new offensive coordinator Kenny Guiton than they did under Dan Enos. That's a good thing for the team and for the over. Their offense was terrible and the play calling was bad earlier this year. Arkansas played nearly two seconds per play quicker last week than they did on average the rest of the season. Arkansas also has Rocket Sanders back and Coach Pittman said he's healthier coming into this game than he was going into last weekend. Sanders had his best game of the year last week against Florida. He makes this offense much better when he is at least pretty healthy. Auburn's running game should have some success against a mediocre Arkansas defense. The Razorbacks just allowed 36 points against Florida. Auburn's passing attack has been slightly better of late to give them some balance. I think this number makes sense for the season as a whole, but it is too low based on the changes for Arkansas. Take the over. |
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11-11-23 | Utah v. Washington UNDER 53 | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The weather is key in this one. Right now the National Weather service says 85% chance of rain during this one. Sustained winds of about 20 mph and gusts as high as 30 mph. If that comes to fruition that absolutely is enough to make a big impact on the game. 6 of Utah’s 9 games have finished with 41 points or fewer total. Whittingham knows they don’t want a shootout against this Huskies team. Washington has played a lot of high scoring games this year, but the weather and an opponent with a weak offense and very strong defense is coming up in this one. Take the under. |
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11-11-23 | UAB v. Navy OVER 52.5 | 6-31 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The UAB Blazers have played eight games against FBS opponents. The lowest combined score has been 58 points. They have hit 70 points or higher in four of their eight games. They have only stayed in the 50's once. UAB's passing attack is very good with Jacob Zeno back in the fold. Zeno was 29/35 for 484 yards and 5 TD's passing last week. Navy has a passing defense that is ranked in the bottom ten in passing play success rate allowed. UAB's defense is atrocious against the run. They are 132nd out of 133 in the country in rushing play success rate allowed. They are 130th in YPC allowed. We know Navy will run the football a lot, and they should have success against this UAB defensive front. UAB will push the pace in a big way. Both defenses are weak. This total has moved down to the point I have to fire on an over. Take the over here. |
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11-11-23 | Arizona v. Colorado UNDER 56 | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 134 h 44 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Colorado Buffaloes made a offensive coordinator change late last week. I didn't like the move at all. Sean Lewis is a really good offensive coordinator, but the move was made to Shurmur and Lewis was demoted. Shurmur was brought in likely to run the ball more and play at a slower pace. The Colorado offensive line has been so bad that Shedeur Sanders has gotten banged up badly. He clearly isn't himself right now. Colorado played 2.5 seconds per play slower last week than they have for the year overall. The Buffaloes were pass heavy, but they playing from pretty far behind and they were unable to get any offense going at all until very late in the game. Arizona's defense is flying under the radar. The Wildcats defense is much better of late. Arizona is 25th in explosiveness allowed. You aren't going to get big plays on them. They can get in the backfield often too with their talented linebackers. The Colorado OLine is going to be in trouble here. Colorado's defense has played somewhat better of late. They have at least slowed down UCLA and Oregon State in the last couple weeks. Arizona's offense is a good one, but they are playing at a pretty slow tempo. Take the under. |
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11-11-23 | Temple v. South Florida OVER 68 | 23-27 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Temple Owls offensive numbers are skewed. E.J. Warner is everything to this offense and he missed a couple games recently and they were absolutely hapless in those games. Temple is a good offense with Warner on the field though. He came back last week and was great against Navy. Now, Temple goes to take on a weaker defense in USF. USF is 132nd in the nation in explosive plays allowed. The Bulls are 1st in the nation in tempo though. Their games have been absolutely shootouts. They lost 59-50 last week against Memphis. In USF's last six games, five of them have finished at 70 total points or higher. Temple had games finish at 74 and 83 points total before Warner was hurt. Temple is a fast paced team as well. There should be a lot of possessions and I like this one to be a back and forth game. Take the over. |
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11-06-23 | Chargers v. Jets +3.5 | 27-6 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Jets* The LA Chargers picked up an easy win over the Chicago Bears. I think they are getting too much love from that performance. The Bears a bottom three team in the NFL and they were on their backup quarterback in that one. Justin Herbert played better last game, but that was against the Bears defense which I rank as second worst in the NFL. Now, he goes up against a top 5 defense in the NFL in the New York Jets. Herbert has been more inconsistent this year, and I think he'll be under a lot of pressure in this game. The Jets have played the second toughest strength of schedule in the league according to Sagarin this year. The Chargers are 12th. The Chargers defense is a bottom five defense in the NFL. The Jets are certainly limited on offense, but they should be able to move the ball fairly well here. The Jets have played very well at home, and I'll grab the points here. Take the Jets. |
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11-05-23 | Colts v. Panthers OVER 44 | 27-13 | Loss | -105 | 38 h 59 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Indianapolis Colts are an over team. Gardner Minshew is a gunslinger. He can move the team up and down the field, but he can also give the other team a pick six with his questionable decision making at times. The Colts defense is bottom five in the NFL. Indianapolis has been playing quicker of late as well. The Colts last three games have finished 37-20, 39-38, and 38-27. The last two of those were against the Browns and Saints. Both of those teams have suspect offenses and great defenses. If you are able to get very high scoring games against them, I have to look toward the over in your games when they are set this low. Carolina hasn't been a good offense, but I think Bryce Young and company can have some success offensively against a weak secondary and a subpar pass rush in Indianapolis. The Panthers have had 3 of their last 5 games get over 60 points total, so they are capable of being in shootouts. The weather looks good for this one. Take the over. |
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11-05-23 | Commanders v. Patriots OVER 40.5 | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Commanders have had one strength on defense in the last couple years- they had a good pass rush because of a strong defensive line. They traded away that big strength. Chase Young and Montez Sweat both were traded away this week. Washington has been a bottom five defense in the NFL in yards per play even before these trades, and now they are worse. The New England Patriots have been slowed by quite a few injuries on the defensive side of the football this year. They are still a decent defense, but they are far from the dominant defense we've seen in past seasons. Washington's Sam Howell is willing to take chances and I think he can hit on some deep passes against the Patriots secondary. The Patriots offense should look much better without a pass rush on them. This total is set very low for a game involving a very weak defense and no weather issues. Take the over. |
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11-04-23 | Kansas v. Iowa State -2.5 | 28-21 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Iowa State* The Iowa State Cyclones are laying points here at home against a Top 25 team. How have road or neutral teams who are Top 25 teams catching points done in the past? The Top 25 dog is 44.5% ATS since 2005. That would be a good fade of Kansas in this angle. Kansas is coming off one of their biggest wins in program history. Oklahoma had a 57% success rate against them, but Kansas hit explosive plays and squeaked out a win. Iowa State is the best in the Big 12 at not giving up big plays. I don't think the Jayhawks will hit as many of those big gainers here. Rocco Becht has been playing a lot better for the Iowa State offense. The Cyclones passing game has an edge over a very weak Kansas secondary. Iowa State has taken great care of the football. The Cyclones have just 7 turnovers all season. Matt Campbell's team is in a favorable spot here. Kansas is riding high into this one, but I like the Cyclones to win and cover here at home. Take Iowa State. |
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11-04-23 | Missouri v. Georgia OVER 54.5 | 21-30 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 60 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Georgia offense is better than people realize. Georgia's Carson Beck is playing good football right now. Even without Brock Bowers, Georgia has solid weapons in the passing game. Georgia put up 486 yards and 7.4 yards per play against Florida last week. The Bulldogs are capable of big things on offense. Missouri's offense has been much improved this year. The play caller here is doing a good job taking advantage of Missouri having one of the best WR rooms in the country this year. Brady Cook has been excellent and Burden and company are a tough cover for anyone. Georgia's defense is clearly very good, but what good offense have they faced this year? This is one of the weakest opposing offenses schedules you could find. Missouri will be the best offense they have seen this year. The Missouri defense allowed 21 points to Vandy. They gave up 27 points to Kansas State. LSU put up 8.1 yards per play and 49 points on them. The Tigers defense is worse than they were a year ago. Take the over here. |
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11-04-23 | South Florida v. Memphis OVER 66.5 | 50-59 | Win | 100 | 134 h 30 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Memphis Tigers won 45-42 over North Texas last weekend. Memphis gained 600 yards of total offense, but they allowed 591 total yards. Both teams averaged better than 8 yards per play. Memphis has 44 plays of 20 yards or more on the season. They are solid offensively and are pretty explosive. South Florida has 44 plays of 20 yards or more on the season as well. What about the defenses? Both defenses have given up loads of explosive plays this year. USF is 130th in explosiveness allowed (out of 133 teams). USF is second in the nation in tempo. The Bulls are absolutely flying on offense. Alex Golesh and this group want to turn every game into a track meet. USF has seen four of their last five games finish with 70 combined points or more. USF has allowed 56 points twice in their last three games. Memphis is allowing 5.47 yards per carry in AAC play. USF is 123rd in yards per play allowed on the season. The pace here will be very quick and I like this one to be high scoring. Take the over. |
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11-04-23 | Kansas State v. Texas UNDER 51 | 30-33 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 17 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats are a run heavy offense. They are running the ball on 61% of their offensive plays in Big 12 play. Texas is first in the Big 12 in run defense, and the Longhorns big defensive front should slow down Kansas State much better than the Wildcats recent foes have. Kansas State's secondary was weak early in the season, but they have been amazing of late. In their last two games, Kansas State allowed 3 points against TCU and 0 points against Houston. Texas is without Quinn Ewers at quarterback. Maalik Murphy wasn't asked to do very much last week against BYU. I think Ewers will be missed especially because of his ability to throw the ball deep. Kansas State likely wants to run the ball and play slowly here. Both teams have looked excellent on defense lately. I expect a tight hard fought battle. Take the under. |
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11-03-23 | Boston College +3 v. Syracuse | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 30 h 33 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Boston College* Boston College is on a four game winning streak. Thomas Castellanos has been a fun quarterback for this Eagles team. He is a playmaker who is capable of running or throwing for explosive plays. Boston College has built up some momentum of late. Syracuse has been absolutely terrible the last four games. The Orange have scored a grand total of 20 points in their last three games. The Orange have been outscored 150-34 in their last four contests. Syracuse's offensive line is atrocious. They rank 121st in the nation in run blocking grade. Syracuse is running Shrader too much at the quarterback spot and opposing teams have caught on. Without star tight end Gadsden Syracuse is really lacking good pass catchers as well. Syracuse has a made a habit of starting the season hot and going ice cold. Dino Babers team is doing it again. The Orange have a lot of injuries they are dealing with, and until they show me something more I have to fade them as a favorite. Take Boston College. |
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10-29-23 | Texans v. Panthers +3.5 | 13-15 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Carolina* Is it fun to bet on the Panthers here? No, but this is a situational spot that has been very good in the past. It is a fade of a Texans team that has wildly overachieved expectations and has been covering spreads at a high rate and margin so far this year. Things usually even out in the NFL and I think the Texans will come back to earth a bit. Also, the Panthers are winless, but they are coming off a bye week. Carolina should show up with a better effort in a game like this. It's one of their better chances to win a game, and the team is healthier now than it has been of late. Carolina changing the play caller for their offense should help as well. I'll go with the buy low/sell high here. The Texans are +6 in turnover margin on the season. That should regress to the mean over time. Take Carolina. |
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10-29-23 | Jets -3 v. Giants | 13-10 | Push | 0 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Jets* The New York Giants have the worst offensive line in the NFL. The Jets have an elite defense. The Jets are a top 3 defense with a good pass rush and elite cornerbacks. The Jets had a bye week last week and come into this game in good shape health wise. Tyrod Taylor is a pretty good game manager, but he is playing behind a terrible offensive line and there aren't many talented wide receivers on the Giants roster. Zach Wilson is still not a good quarterback, but he is playing much better than he did in past seasons. The Jets offensive line is improved and the Jets skill position talent is much better than the Giants. There is no home field advantage here for the Giants. I'll take the team that is much stronger in the trenches. Take the Jets. |
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10-29-23 | Rams v. Cowboys OVER 45.5 | 20-43 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The NFL has had a lot of low scoring games this year. The under has been cashing at a really high rate. That usually tends to regress at least somewhat toward the mean after extremes. This game is being played on the fast track in Dallas. Both of these quarterbacks have shown to be very good when in these conditions. The Rams offense is very good now with two great receivers on the outside. Diggs being out for Dallas definitely hurts them against this kind of passing attack. The Cowboys offense underachieved the last couple games before their bye week. They put a lot of time and focus into turning things around this week. I expect a sharper performance from their offense. Take the over. |
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10-28-23 | Colorado v. UCLA UNDER 63.5 | 16-28 | Win | 100 | 72 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The new clock rules have really made a difference in the higher total games. There is only so much time to score with the clock moving even after first downs. There will certainly still be some very high scoring games, but they have become more rare. Totals of 62 points or higher are 34-20 to the under this season. Colorado has allowed 35 sacks. This Buffaloes offensive line is going to be beaten badly here. PFF rates the UCLA pass rush the e highest of anny in the country. Sanders is going to be under a lot of heat here. Colorado does play quickly but they aren’t always efficient. The Colorado run defense isn't good, but it has been less bad in recent weeks. They are allowing only 3.94 YPC in Pac 12 play. Only one of UCLA’s games against FBS competition has finished higher than 45 points. Ethan Garbers is a more conservative quarterback and I think that could lead to less pick sixes and short fields for the opposition which Moore had done all too often. Take the under here. |
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10-28-23 | Vanderbilt v. Ole Miss OVER 62.5 | 7-33 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Vanderbilt Commodores defense has been atrocious this year. They have given up 126 plays of 10 yards or more on the season thus far. In the SEC, they are allowing 6.85 yards per play. Vanderbilt gives up big plays in bunches, and Ole Miss is the definition of a big play offense. Ole Miss has 52 plays of 20 yards or more already this season (3rd best in the country). The Rebels can do it through the air or on the ground. I don't think they'll get to 4th down very often in this game at all. Vanderbilt's offense isn't great, but through the air they have some explosiveness. That is a good fit here since Ole Miss has been weakest in the secondary. Ole Miss is 84th in total QBR allowed. They are 90th in pass play success rate allowed. The two teams are 7th and 14th in the nation in explosiveness on offense. These two met last year and Ole Miss won 52-28. Ole Miss had 9.9 yards per play. Vanderbilt's defense is worse this year. Take the over. |
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10-28-23 | USC v. California +11 | 50-49 | Win | 100 | 64 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on California* The California Golden Bears had a bye week last week to prepare for this game. USC was busy fighting hard to come back from a big deficit only to lose at the last second to the Utah Utes once again. USC has now lost two games, and they clearly aren't going to be part of the four team playoff this year. The Trojans absolutely had reaching the playoffs and winning the title as their goals in the preseason. Their bubble has burst now. It can be extremely difficult for teams with very high profile stars like USC and Caleb Williams to stay locked in after two heartbreaking loss and seeing their dreams crushed. Cal is 19-8 ATS as an underdog of 7 points or more under Justin Wilcox. The average ATS margin in that 27 game sample size is more than 6 points in Cal's favor. It's an impressive record. The Bears aren't a great team, but they generally battle all the way and make things tough on the more talented opponent. USC is 92nd in rushing play success rate allowed. Jaydn Ott and Cal will run the ball a bunch here. Bear Alexander, USC's best defensive player, is out for the first half because of a targeting penalty late last week. If USC does get a lead, Cal has clear back door potential with this very weak USC defense. I also think this staying close the whole way is a real possibility. Cal has beaten USC in two of their last four meetings. They have covered 4 of the last 5 meetings. The situational spot here favors Cal. Take Cal. |
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10-28-23 | Miami-OH v. Ohio UNDER 39 | 30-16 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Ohio Bobcats are nothing like they were last year. Ohio is excellent defensively this year. They are bottom 10 in the country in tempo. The Bobcats are happy to win low scoring games with strong defense this season. 6 of Ohio’s 8 games have finished with a combined total of 37 points or fewer. The Miami OH defense has been tremendous especially in MAC play. They are allowing an average of 11.25 points per games in the MAC. Salopek is a star linebacker that leads the way for them. Miami OH will be without star quarterback Brett Gabbert who had season ending surgery after an injury in the second half of the Toledo game. Aveon Smith is a decent backup, but there is a significant drop off from Gabbert to Smith. Smith is a runner first and he makes the Miami OH offense much more predictable. Gabbert’s big play ability in the passing game is no longer there. Both teams rank in the bottom 25 in the country in terms of tempo. There shouldn't be many big plays here. It's a very low total, but I think it's low for a good reason. Take the under. |
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10-28-23 | Memphis v. North Texas +8.5 | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 136 h 32 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on North Texas* The Memphis Tigers haven't shown me enough to be laying more than a touchdown on the road against a North Texas team that is clearly improving with Chandler Rogers at quarterback. Memphis played lowly UAB last week and while they blew them away on the scoreboard, UAB had 5.7 yards per play to just 5.0 yards per play for Memphis. Memphis finished +4 in turnover margin in that game. North Texas pushed Tulane to the limit on the road and lost by 7. The Mean Green running game has a pretty big edge in this game. The two teams have played a very similar strength of schedule and their yards per play margins are almost the same. Memphis is underachieving this year. The Tigers won by just 4 at home against Navy. They lost by 10 at home against Tulane. The Tigers had just 5.3 YPP to 8.9 YPP against Missouri. I like the underdog getting this many points. Take North Texas. |
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10-27-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Charlotte UNDER 42 | 38-16 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 32 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Charlotte 49ers have shown us their game plan pretty clearly at this point. Charlotte wants to play as slowly as possible and run the football and control the time of possession. Charlotte is using 31 seconds between plays in their conference games. The 49ers rank in the bottom 10 in tempo in the country. Charlotte is 126th in the nation in rushing play success rate, but they are running the ball on more than 60% of their offensive plays in the conference. Charlotte's defense is much improved under Biff Poggi who is a defensive minded coach. The 49ers are 32nd in success rate allowed. They are giving up just 4.52 yards per play in conference action so far. Florida Atlantic has been a big disappointment on offense so far this year. The Owls have been held to 187 points or fewer in four of their seven games. They gained just 2.9 yards per play against a mediocre UTSA defense last week. Charlotte has seen 4 of their 7 games (including 3 of their last 4) this year finish with a combined total of 29 points or fewer. This is the type of game Charlotte wants to play with their lack of big playmakers on offense. Take the under. |
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10-22-23 | Dolphins v. Eagles -2.5 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 19 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Eagles* The Miami Dolphins are a good team. I'm not ready to say they are almost equal to the Philadelphia Eagles overall though. Miami has a ton of speed on the outside. Tua is playing playing very well at quarterback. The Dolphins still have more weaknesses as a team than do the Eagles. Miami has played three road games this year. They won by two at the LA Chargers (no HFA for the Chargers here), at New England (7 point win), and at Buffalo (28 point loss). The Dolphins have also played the Giants and Panthers the last couple weeks. The schedule hasn't been difficult on the whole. Philadelphia has a fantastic offensive line. The Eagles should be able to run the ball on a mediocre Dolphins run defense. The Eagles should be in a bad mood after a -4 TO margin game cost them and they lost 20-14 to the Jets last week. The Eagles defensive line should be in the backfield a lot here too. The Eagles are the much stronger team in the trenches. I think they can win this game on the lines here. The home field advantage should be great at night in front of the raucous Philly crowd. Take the Eagles. |
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10-22-23 | Lions v. Ravens UNDER 42 | 6-38 | Loss | -109 | 121 h 8 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Baltimore Ravens defense is second in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 4.0. The Detroit Lions defense is fifth in the NFL in yards per play allowed at just 4.7. Everyone knew the Ravens would have a solid defense and they do, but the Lions defense has improved so much from the past couple years. Baltimore's offense has been inconsistent this year. The Ravens gained just 5.1 YPP against a mediocre Titans defense last week. The Ravens sit at just 5.2 yards per play on average for the season overall. The Detroit offense hasn't had to face many good defenses yet. They put up just 20 against a pretty good Atlanta defense. They scored only 20 on Tampa Bay last weekend. The weather in this one should be a factor. All of the longer range forecasts are calling for a very windy game here. There are expected to be sustained winds of about 20 mph with gusts of around 35 mph. That is enough to really change the game and make things much more conservative. Take the under. |
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10-22-23 | Bills v. Patriots UNDER 41 | 25-29 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 43 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The New England Patriots offense is an absolute mess right now. New England couldn't score a point against New Orleans a couple weeks ago, and the offense was still very weak with only 259 total yards of offense against a mediocre Raiders defense last week. Buffalo's offense has been very inconsistent this year. The Bills struggled badly to score last week against the Giants. The Bills defense has held 3 of their last 5 opponents to 10 points or fewer. I consider New England a bottom three offense in the the NFL, but the Pats also have a top five or so defense in the NFL. The weather should be a nice bonus here too. The forecast calls for sustained winds of around 18 mph with gusts of 35 mph during this game. That should help cut down on the downfield passing game and make both teams more conservative. Take the under. |
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10-21-23 | Georgia State v. UL-Lafayette OVER 58 | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 138 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns were off last weekend. Louisiana has played five FBS opponents this year. The final combined total points scored in those games were: 69, 62, 83. 59, and 64 points. Louisiana is 12th in the nation in yards per play. They are balanced team who can beat you through the air or on the ground. Georgia State is 41st in the nation in yards per play on offense. The Panthers play quickly (39th in the nation in tempo). Georgia State is 11th in the nation in explosive plays on offense. Defensively, Georgia State is 121st in explosiveness allowed. The Panthers allowed 35 points against Rhode Island and 25 points against a really bad Charlotte offense. Even in their win last week, Georgia State gave up 6.7 yards per play against Marshall. Take the over in this one. |
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10-21-23 | Buffalo v. Kent State UNDER 46 | 24-6 | Win | 100 | 121 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bulls defense looked terrible in the non-conference slate. They have played better against MAC competition. Obviously the MAC is a weak conference, but this has been a common trend for Buffalo. The defense ends up being above average in MAC play. Buffalo has given up just 4.83 yards per play in three MAC games. Kent State's offense is averaging a miserable 3.89 yards per play in the MAC. For the season as a whole, Kent State is 132nd out of 133 teams in the country in yards per play. Buffalo's offense has very little big play ability. In fact, Buffalo has only five plays of 30 yards or more all season long. Kent State's biggest weakness as a defense has been giving up the big play, but I don't think Buffalo will take advantage of that. Buffalo is 127th in the nation in yards per play on offense. These are two really weak offenses. The weather forecast here calls for 16 mph winds with gusts above 20 mph and showers during the day on Saturday. This is a long range forecast, and the weather is just a bonus. Take the under. *This line has been moving down some throughout the week. I would still play this as long as it is 42 points or higher. Thanks and good luck.* |
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10-21-23 | Tennessee v. Alabama UNDER 49.5 | 20-34 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers offense is extremely reliant on being able to run the ball this year. Joe Milton's efficiency has been very poor in games against good opponents. Tennessee scored just 20 points against Texas A&M. They scored only 16 points against Florida. Alabama will easily be the best defense the Volunteers have faced. Alabama ranks #1 in overall defense grade at PFF. Alabama held a very good Ole Miss offense to 10 points at home earlier this year. Alabama is very run heavy this year on offense. Jalen Milroe is inconsistent through the air. Alabama has run the ball on 63% of their plays so far this year. Tennessee's defense is much improved from a couple years ago. The Volunteers are 5th in the nation in success rate allowed. They are 7th in defensive line yards. I think they could give the Alabama offensive line a tough time here. This total looks low when you consider what these two teams did last year, but these teams are very different than a year ago. I think the low total is justified. Take the under. |
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10-21-23 | Eastern Michigan +12.5 v. Northern Illinois | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Eastern Michigan* The Eastern Michigan Eagles are 18-2 ATS in their last 20 as a road underdog in MAC conference games. Northern Illinois is 0-8 ATS as a home favorite in their last 8 games. A combined 26-2 angle. Chris Creighton has made a living out of turning games into close battles even when he has less talent. Eastern Michigan is really good on the special teams front, and that can help them stay in games even when they are badly being outgained. In this game, the total is posted at 43.5. With this low of a total- underdogs have cashed at a very high rate when given this many points. There are 15-20 mph winds in the forecast here which is a bit of an equalizer too. Eastern Michigan isn't a good team, but Northern Illinois isn't as good as they have looked recently. The Huskies did lose to Southern Illinois and lost by 8 to Tulsa as well. I'll take the big dog in the low scoring environment here. Take Eastern Michigan. |
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10-21-23 | Air Force v. Navy +10.5 | 17-6 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 20 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Navy* The Air Force Falcons are a good team, but this is a huge spread to cover with a total of just 34 points. That isn't the only thing working against Air Force either. Air Force is without starting quarterback Zac Larrier. Larrier has been great in the offense, and when he came out last week things didn't go well for Jensen Jones. Jones turned it over on two straight possessions. Jones is a good runner, but he doesn't have as good of a passing touch and downfield ability like Larrier. Jones has attempted one pass in his entire career. A game between Air Force and Navy with the new clock rules is likely to have very few possessions as well. Air Force is running the ball on more than 90% of their plays. While they are good at running the option, Navy is very accustomed to seeing the option. Navy lost by just 3 points at Air Force last year as a double digit underdog. The total here is even lower. Air Force has played an extremely weak schedule this year. The Falcons are a good team, but they aren't as good as their raw stats would suggest. Navy has played the tougher schedule, and the Midshipmen do have a solid defense. In games with a total of 45 or lower and a spread of 10.5 or larger, the underdog is 56.7% ATS in the last 15 years. It's a very large sample size too. These two teams know each other well and I think it leads to a hard fought close game. Take Navy. |
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10-19-23 | Jaguars v. Saints UNDER 41.5 | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Saints have a top five defense in the NFL. Dennis Allen is a fantastic defensive minded coach. The Saints defense is strong on all levels. There is no clear weakness. New Orleans is also a very questionable offensive team. The Saints play calling on offense leaves a lot to be desired. They play slowly and don't hit many big plays. The Jacksonville Jaguars scored 37 points against the Colts so you would think they were great on offense in that one. They were not even good offensively. It was the Colts turnovers that led to the points. In fact, the Jaguars offense put up just 233 total yards and 3.8 yards per play. The Jaguars defense now ranks in the top 10 in the NFL in most categories. They held the Colts to 4.8 yards per play. Trevor Lawrence is banged up and is getting tests on his knee. He is likely to be less than 100 percent here (assuming he will play). This is a short week. The Saints have now played 12 straight games that have stayed under this total. Their highest combined total this year is 37 points. Take the under. |
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10-15-23 | Lions -3 v. Bucs | 20-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Lions* The Detroit Lions are a well coached team that doesn't have a glaring weakness anywhere. Detroit has had a weak defense in past years, but they are sitting at 6th in the NFL in yards per play allowed so far this year. The Lions are 5th in the NFL in yards per play on offense. Detroit picked up a win at Kansas City in game one. They picked up a win at Green Bay in a key divisional game as well. They have been ready to play on the road under Dan Campbell. Tampa Bay is better than people thought they might be, but I think Baker Mayfield and this Bucs offense is a bit overvalued now. The Bucs still have their offensive limitations. The offensive line isn't that strong, and Mayfield is still a questionable decision maker at times. Take Detroit. |
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10-15-23 | Patriots +3 v. Raiders | 17-21 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Patriots* The New England Patriots have been blasted in two games in a row. The average NFL bettor isn't going to want to take them. The Raiders are coming off a win on Monday night. Las Vegas only averaged 4.4 yards per play in that win. The Raiders won that game in tight fashion thanks to Jordan Love's interceptions (3). New England is still well coached. The Patriots have played a tough schedule to this point. In fact, you could make an argument that this is the worst team they have played so far. New England played Philly and Miami very tough. The Raiders playing the Monday night game means they had less time to prepare for this game. Buying low and selling high in the NFL is very important. I'm buying the Patriots at a very low point. I'll grab the points. Take New England. |
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10-15-23 | Saints v. Texans UNDER 41 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 155 h 51 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Saints defense has been tremendous all season. New Orleans is also a very cautious offense compared to most in the NFL. They don't take many shots down the field. New Orleans scored 34 points against New England last game, but that is pretty misleading. They averaged just 4.3 YPP. They got a pick six and had multiple short fields due to bad turnovers and the Pats going for it from their own side. Houston was beaten right as the clock hit zero by Atlanta 21-19 last game. C.J. Stroud has been fantastic this year. I still think he will find it tougher going in this one than in most games because this Saints secondary is the real deal. The Texans defense is scrappy and they are limiting big plays. Both teams are coached by defensive minded head coaches. The Saints have played a stunning 11 straight games that have finished at a combined 40 points or lower. This year, they have had all 5 of their games finish at 37 points or lower. I like this one to stay a defensive battle. Take the under. |
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10-14-23 | UAB v. UTSA OVER 64.5 | 20-41 | Loss | -110 | 125 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The UTSA Roadrunners got their star quarterback Frank Harris back last Saturday. Harris had been badly banged up earlier this year and tried to play through it. He then had to sit out for a period of time. UTSA's offense finally looked like what we expected last weekend. UTSA put up 49 points and 7.3 yards per play in their win over Temple last weekend. UTSA's defense has disappointed this year. The secondary in particular lost a lot of talent from a year ago, and the drop off has been significant. Temple put up 542 yards in that 49-34 loss to UTSA last weekend. UAB has been throwing the ball a lot. Zeno is a quality quarterback for the Blazers. UAB ranks 19th in success rate on offense. They are throwing the ball on 53.6% of their offensive plays. UAB hasn't had a game against an FBS opponent finish with less than 58 points total this year. Two of their four against FBS opponents finished with 81 and 84 points. The UAB defense is extremely weak. They are 130th in success rate allowed. They have allowed 35 points or more in every game against an FBS opponent this season. A fast track here for two offenses ranking in the top 20 in tempo. Take the over. |
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10-14-23 | UCLA v. Oregon State UNDER 55.5 | 24-36 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Oregon State is 105th in the nation in tempo. 56.5% of their plays on offense are a run. I think they want to establish the run in this one. Oregon State is a good run defense (3.21 ypc) on the year. Oregon State should at least hold its own against the run of UCLA. UCLA’s Dante Moore is capable of big things, but Chip Kelly doesn’t look like he fully trusts him yet.. He also has an OLine that isn’t pass protecting well. 110th in pass blocking grade. I knew the UCLA defensive front was good, but I didn’t expect them to shut down a great passing attack like Washington State last week. Washington State had a 19%!!! Success rate on passing downs last week. UCLA is 1st in the nation in yards per play allowed. They have a 93.2 PFF overall defense grade. 2nd best in the country. UCLA 6th in explosiveness allowed. An excellent defense so far this year. UCLA hasn’t played a game against an FBS opponent this year that finished with more than 45 total points. I’m on the under. |
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10-14-23 | Wyoming v. Air Force UNDER 45 | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 139 h 21 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Air Force Falcons are 133rd in tempo out of 133 teams in the country. They are running the football on 94% of their offensive plays. With the new clock rules, the Air Force games are really going to move quickly. There aren't many possessions in their games. The Falcons have only faced one good run defense (Sam Houston) and that game was 13-3. Wyoming has played against some pretty good offenses this year, and I tend to think the Wyoming defense is a little better than their year to date stats look. Craig Bohl's teams have a history of being very good at defending the triple option as well. Andrew Peasley isn't a good quarterback. He just had a fantastic game against Fresno State, but I don't expect to see a repeat of that. Air Force is 4th in yards per play allowed this year. The Falcons are a veteran defense that does not give up big plays. The last three meetings between these two teams were 20-6, 24-14, and 17-14. I don't see any reason to expect this one to be a higher scoring game. Take the under. |
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10-14-23 | Marshall v. Georgia State -108 | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 28 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Georgia State ML* The Marshall Thundering Herd have been beaten up the last couple weeks. Marshall had a hard fought win over VA Tech 3 weeks ago. They squeaked out a 41-35 win over Old Dominion two weeks ago. They blew a lead at NC State and lost 48-41 last week. Coach Huff for Marshall was quoted as saying this is the time they really needed a bye week because so many guys were banged up and less than 100%. Georgia State is coming off a bye week. They have had two weeks to prepare for this big game at home against a big name opponent. The Panthers have an excellent running game, and that is exactly where Marshall's defense has struggled this year. Marshall is giving up explosive rushing plays in bunches. Marshall is last in the nation in 30 yard plus runs allowed with 9. They are last in the nation in 50 plus yard runs with 6. I think Georgia State can bust some big gainers here. Rasheen Ali is a good RB for Marshall, but he limped off the field last week late in the game. He should play here, but might not be 100%. These two teams are pretty even on talent level, but Georgia State is far healthier and this is a much better situational spot for the home team. Take Georgia State ML. |
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10-14-23 | Bowling Green v. Buffalo UNDER 45.5 | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 76 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The weather forecast in this one calls for rain throughout the day on Saturday and sustained winds of 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. That is significant enough to change the way the game is played. Buffalo prefers to throw the football, but they are unlikely to be able to throw it downfield much in this weather. Buffalo is averaging just 3.51 ypc (111th in the country). Bowling Green should be able to cheat up in the box to stop the run more here. Bowling Green on offense is 118th in success rate so far this year. The Falcons are 99th in success rate in the running game. Buffalo's run defense is 51st in success rate allowed on the ground. PFF grades Buffalo as the 31st ranked run defense in the country. With the weather and game plans being changed by it, I'll take the under. |
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10-14-23 | Troy v. Army UNDER 43.5 | 19-0 | Win | 100 | 73 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* These two teams met last year and the final was Troy 10 Army 9. While I don't expect a game that low again, I do think this total is too high. Army is 131st in pace of play this year. They run the ball on 75% of their plays on offense. Army is going up a Troy defense that is ranked #7 in the country in run defense by PFF. Troy is 12th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. I think Army will find it hard to move the football here. Troy's offensive line is their biggest weakness. They get too many big negative plays and get behind the sticks. The weather is an extra help here too. The forecast calls for half an inch or more of rain during the day at West Point. Winds of 10-12 mph are expected as well. There should be even less of a downfield passing attack from these two teams based on the weather. Expect a lot of running and the clock to keep ticking here. Take the under. |
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10-14-23 | Texas A&M v. Tennessee UNDER 55.5 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 26 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers offense hasn't been nearly as explosive or consistently good this year. Hendon Hooker was a perfect fit for the offense, and to this point Joe Milton really hasn't been. Milton can make a highlight play once in a while, but his passing efficiency numbers are very poor. He hasn't been able to stretch the field, and now without Bru McCoy the wide receivers aren't nearly as good. Tennessee will want to run the football here, but Texas A&M is 6th in YPC allowed. Tennessee and Texas A&M have both been excellent at getting into the backfield and creating big negative plays with their front seven. I think it will be tough for the offenses to stay ahead of schedule here. The Volunteers defense is much better than it was a couple years ago. Tennessee ranks 10th in the nation in success rate allowed. The weather should be a bit of a boost here for the under too. A chance of showers (not much rain) and winds of 17 mph with gusts to 28 mph is the average of four forecasts here. Those kinds of winds are the key. It should help keep the play calling a bit more conservative. Take the under. |
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10-14-23 | Navy v. Charlotte UNDER 45 | 14-0 | Win | 100 | 24 h 18 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Charlotte’s biggest strength as a team is their defensive line. Biff Poggi is a unique guy and he knows defense. I think Charlotte is better suited to slow down the unique option that Navy is running than most teams. I know Navy isn’t just a triple option team now, but let’s be honest they are definitely still an option team.. They have run the ball on 79% of their offensive plays this year. Navy is 123rd out of 133 teams in tempo. With all those running plays and the new clock rules, the clock will keep moving a lot when they have the ball. Even if they score it should take a lot of time off the clock. Charlotte is running the ball on 58% of their offensive plays. I think they want it to be even higher than that, but they have been down big in some games and had to start throwing it more. Charlotte 115th in tempo. Conservative play calling from both teams and I don’t see many big plays from either side. A game that likely gets completed in 3 hours or less. I’ll take the under expecting a 21-17 type game. |
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