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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-10-22 | Georgia -2.5 v. Alabama | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 107 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm playing on GEORGIA. As you know, Alabama has enjoyed a lot of success on this stage. As you also know, Alabama won the first meeting convincingly. The Tide have been beating the Bulldogs for years. Yet, despite all that, Georgia is favored. So, what's different this time? The loss of Metchie III may not seem like much but its a pretty big deal. Yes, the Tide still have Jameson Williams. Perhaps the top receiver in the country, he killed the Bulldogs in the first meeting. However, the absence of Metchie and a Georgia team intent on slowing him down, will make Williams find the going tougher this time. Alabama compensated for Metchie's absence by running the bal a lot against the Bearcats. However, the Bulldogs are far stingier against the run and won't be pushed around on the line the way that Cincinnati was. These teams averaged roughly the same amount of points. Alabama averaged 41. Georgia averaged 39. On the other side of the ball, the Bulldogs had a big edge. They allowed less than 10 ppg. Bama allowed nearly 20. Five teams gave the Tide real trouble this season: Auburn, Arkansas, Florida, LSU and Texas A&M. Georgia faced three of those five teams and crushed all three of them. The combined score of its win against Arkansas, Florida and Auburn was 105-17. Yet, the Tide beat those teams by only 11 combined points. Enough's enough. It's Georgia's time to shine.  |
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01-04-22 | LSU v. Kansas State -3.5 | Top | 20-42 | Win | 100 | 84 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on KSU. I successfully played on the Wildcats in their very first game of the season. It was an early, neutral site game vs. Stanford. I noted that I expected K-State to be "better on both sides of the ball this season." The Wildcats came through for me with a 24-7 win. Now, here they are, favored in the second last bowl game of the season. The line has clmbed for good reason. LSU has a lengthy list of players who will not be playing. K-State is (mostly) healthy and hungry. Football is huge in Wildcat country and the chance to take down a team like LSU, in a bowl, doesn't come around often. They'll never get a better opportunity. LSU is severely depleted on both sides of the ball. K-State running back Deuce Vaughn will have a big day against an LSU defense missing its top tacklers. Meanwhile, K-State QB Thompson is reportedly healthy. Look for him to finish his Wildcat career a winner, his team picking up the cover along the way. |
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12-31-21 | Cincinnati +13.5 v. Alabama | Top | 6-27 | Loss | -105 | 80 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on CINCINNATI. Needless to say, I have the utmost respect for Alabama. Saban and the Tide have come through for me numerous times over the years. I'm typically on them, more than against. That said, I believe that this Cincinnati team is better than many people have yet to realize. Asking Alabama, which has been tested multiple times, to lay double-digits is asking a lot. Yes, the Tide just beat up on Georgia. That was certainly impressive, as the Bulldogs had previously looked unstoppable. However, let's not forget that Bama only beat Auburn by two points, in its previous game. The game before that? The Tide only won by seven, against Arkansas. They beat up on a terrible team (New Mexico State) before that. No big deal. Before that, the Tide only won by six against LSU. Earlier, the Tide lost outright against Texas A&M and beat Florida, by only two. So, that's five games which were decided by seven or less. Arguably, the Tide were fortunate to even win four of those. Yet, as it was the most recent game, the majority of the betting public can't get the Georgia result out of their heads. Admittedly, the Bearcats schedule has been on the soft side. They've still gotten it done every single time. Remember, the Bearcats went on the road and beat Notre Dame by double-digits. No other team beat the Irish all year. Notre Dame had entered that game undefeated (obviously) and off a 41-13 beating of Wisconsin. The Bearcats outscored teams 39.2 to 16.1. You'll hear a lot of talk about the Bearcat secondary. That's for good reason. They've got a pair of potential first round picks. Note that Alabama star receiver Metchie III is out. That's a big deal. He was outstanding at getting open and took a lot of pressure off Alabama's other star receiver, Williams. The Tide may find a way to win but it's not going to be easy. Remember, Cinci only lost by three against Georgia, last New Year's Day. The Bulldogs were down double-digits entering the fourth quarter and won the game on a 53-yard fg as time expired. Look for the Bearcats, 5-0 ATS their last five as underdogs, to also give the Tide all they can handle, with a legit shot at shocking the world. |
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12-31-21 | Rutgers v. Wake Forest -16.5 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 2 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WAKE FOREST. Thanks for coming out Rutgers. While the line may appear large, this is a mismatch. While it was a disappointing end, the Demon Deacons had a great season. They only lost three games. They were 2-0 SU/ATS after losing the first two. Off the loss to Pittsburgh, they're going to be looking to run up the score in this one. After the first loss, they bounced back to win and cover against NC State, scoring 45 points. After their second loss, the Deacons went on the road and hammered Boston College 41-10. Three of Rutgers' last four games resulted in losses of 24 or more points. While the Knights average 20.5 ppg, the Deacons average more than 41. While the Knights would love to show that they belong here, they don't. Expect a blowout. |
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12-30-21 | Arizona State v. Wisconsin -6 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on WISCONSIN. It's true. The Badgers didn't want to be here. They'll admit that. In some cases, teams in their situation "don't show up." I don't expect that to be the case for this well-coached team though. The Badgers didn't want to be at the Duke Mayo Bowl last year either. Yet, they still won 42-28. Nor did Paul Chryst's team want to be at the Pinstripe Bowl in 2018. Yet, the Badgers took care of business with a 35-3 beatdown of Miami. (Overall, the Badgers are 5-1 in bowls under Chryst.) This evening, they've arguably got a bigger talent edge than they had for either of those games that they "didn't want to be at." That's because the Sun Devils have lost a lot, in terms of transfers and opt outs. The running game and offensive line is depleted. That's a problem, as the Sun Devils are a team which wants to run the ball. An even bigger problem is that Wisconsin is great at stopping the run. I expect ASU to have trouble moving the ball and for the Badgers to ultimately pull away for another double-digit win. |
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12-30-21 | Purdue v. Tennessee -6.5 | 48-45 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TENNESSEE. With this game being played in Nashville, the Vols will have the edge in fan support. The Vols have a strong running game and they'll be licking their chops to go up against the relatively soft Purdue run defense. The Boilermakers are hurt by "opt outs" more than the Vols, as well as injuries. Tennessee lost a good one in Taylor but Purdue lost both Bell and Karlaftis, a pair of players which can't be replaced. Those are just two of many players that won't be available for the Boilers. The last time that the Vols played with more than a week's worth or rest, they scored 45 in a win against Kentucky. Over their last two games, the Vols scored more than 100 combined points. They're going to put up a big number again this afternoon and ultimately, Purdue won't be able to keep up. Expect a double-digit win. |
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12-30-21 | South Carolina v. North Carolina -10 | 38-21 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UNC. The SEC has taken its lumps so far. I expect that to continue this morning. Sam Howell gives the Heels a significant edge at QB. He's a future NFL player. Prior to this season, he was being talked up as a top 5 pick, as well as a Heisman frontrunner. While his stock has fallen, he gets one final chance to remind everyone about how good he can be. It helps that he'll be up against a depleted South Carolina team. While the Heels have plenty of experience at the QB position, the Gamecocks do not. Their starting QB left and they'll be going with unproven Zeb Noland. South Carolina is an ugly 7-16 ATS as an underdog the past 2+ seasons and that includes a 1-8 ATS mark when listed as an underdog in the +3.5 to +9.5 range. I expect Howell and the Heels to pull away for the double-digit win. |
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12-27-21 | Western Michigan v. Nevada +7 | 52-24 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NEVADA. We're getting a lot of points to work. That's due in large part to the fact that the Wolfpack offense will be without its starting QB and top pass catching options. The fact that Nevada has an interim head coach is also factored in. Needless to say, those factors are all significant. That said, the Wolfpack still have several things going for them. QB Cox has been Strong's backup for a long time now (was last year, too) and will be comfortable. He knows this is his opportunity and he'll be facing a weak Western Michigan secondary. Cox also has a pair of decent running backs to hand the ball to. Its on the other side of the ball, however, where I feel that Nevada will have the real edge. The Wolfpack have the stronger defensive backs and their defensive line is outstanding. It's also worth noting that Nevada should enjoy a solid advantage in the special teams department. The Broncos really struggled in their punting game, both kicking and returning. Their field goal kicking wasn't good, either. Nevada began October with a 10-point win at Boise State. Since that time, the Pack have only lost three games. All three losses were less than field goal. Grab the points.  |
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12-25-21 | Ball State +6 v. Georgia State | Top | 20-51 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on BALL STATE. This line has climbed since its opener. I feel that's providing us with excellent value with the underdog. With a victory over Coastal Carolina, Georgia State is certainly worthy of respect. The Cardinals are no slouches either though. Led by an experienced QB, they've got a balanced offense. The defense wasn't a strength but got better down the stretch. While the MAC doesn't get much respect, we just saw Miami Ohio take care of business against North Texas. Prior to that, NIU played Coastal Carolina tough, losing by six. Keep in mind that these teams had a common opponent in Army. The Knights hammered Georgia State by a score of 43-10. Ball State, on the other hand, beat Army by double digits. The Cardinals are 5-3 their last eight games and two of the three losses were by seven or less. They're 13-3 ATS their last 16 against teams with a winning record. Four of their final six games were decided by a TD or less. In what should be another close one, I'm grabbing the points. |
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12-23-21 | Central Florida v. Florida -6.5 | Top | 29-17 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on FLORIDA. I liked this game but waited for this line to dip below seven. As of this writing, at several shops, it finally has. While I'm not surprised, I feel that's providing us with excellent value. I say that I'm not surprised as I've been listening to people call for the upset ever since this matchup was announced. Many seem to think that the Knights will be the more motivated team and that the Gators will go through the motions. Surely, the Knights are fired up at the chance to take down their big name instate 'rivals.' They've been wanting to face Florida for years. Sometimes, teams and people need to be careful what they wish for though. Contrary to popular belief, the Gators ARE going to be hungry. They don't want to be embarrassed by an instate team. This is their chance to show everyone that they're better than their record indicates. Remember, the Gators are battle-tested against the likes of Georgia and Alabama. They very nearly beat the Crimson Tide, in fact. While Miami wasn't on the schedule, Florida has beaten South Florida, Florida Atlantic and Florida State. The avg margin of victory was 15.33 points. I'm expecting another double-digit victory. |
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12-21-21 | San Diego State -2.5 v. UTSA | Top | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on SDSU. Regardless of what happens here, the Roadrunners have had a remarkable season. They can hold their heads high. I won with them in their last game, an impressive win over WKU. However, in their previous game, I successfully played against them. I feel that this will be another good spot to do so. Admittedly, the Aztecs didn't look too good in their last game. They were blown out by Utah State. That was just their second loss the entire season though. The Aztecs bounced back with a 7-point road win, after their previous loss. They're 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS their last six, when off a conference loss. Remember, this SDSU team beat the likes of Utah (currently #10 in the country) and Boise State. When playing with more than a week's rest earlier this season, they won 31-7, delivering one of their more dominant efforts of the season. Note that the Aztecs are 8-3 ATS their last 11 against non-conference opponents. Unlike their opponents, the Aztecs cannot "hold their heads high" if they don't win this game. Arguably, anything less than a "W" here will make for a disappointing season. I say they bounce back and get the victory, covering the small number along the way. |
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12-20-21 | Tulsa -9 v. Old Dominion | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 148 h 31 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TULSA. These teams have identical 6-6 records. The points, for and against, are similar, too. However, the Golden Hurricane are laying more than a touchdown for good reason. Both teams closed the season by playing their best football. The Golden Hurricane won their final three games. The Monarchs won their final five. While the stats may be similar, its important to recognize that the Golden Hurricane played a far more difficult schedule. Tulsa's winning streak included a victory over SMU. Four of their six losses came against the likes of Ohio State, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State and Houston. ODU didn't face anything remotely close to that. The Monarchs' three toughest opponents were Wake Forest, Liberty and WKU. Those games didn't go well for them. The Monarchs lost by scores of 42-10, 45-17 and 43-20. Regardless of how this game goes, it's still a successful season for the Monarchs. That's not the case for the Golden Hurricane. They need a win here. They're a veteran team with the more balanced offense and the superior defense. Expect a double-digit victory. |
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12-18-21 | Marshall v. UL-Lafayette -4.5 | Top | 21-36 | Win | 100 | 109 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE. The Cajuns could easily be bigger favorites. They lost their opening game. Since then, they've reeled off 12 straight wins. That includes a pair of wins against Appalachian State, a team which defeated Marshall. The Thundering Herd got crushed 53-21 last game, one of five losses. The Cajuns are strong offensively but they also rank 18th in the country in terms of points allowed. They give up just 18 ppg. (Marshall ranks #41st and allows 23.) Of course, it should be noted that the game is being played in New Orleans, only a short drive from Lafayette. The line is relatively low, in part, because of Louisiana having a new coach for this game. However, I'm not so worried about that. This is a veteran team led by a veteran senior QB. They've had plenty of time for the new coach to get familiar with everything; the offense will remain the same. Off the loss to WKU, note that Marshall is just 1-5 ATS its last six, when off a conference loss. Expect Louisiana to punctuate its outstanding season with a win and cover. |
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12-18-21 | UAB v. BYU -6.5 | 31-28 | Loss | -116 | 103 h 19 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BYU. I respect the Blazers and they came through for me in a big way this season. That said, I don't feel that they're in the same class as the Cougars. The question, in some of these "lesser" bowl games, is whether or not the "bigger name" team is motivated or not. Indeed, the Cougars had been hoping for bigger things. In cases where they're not motivated, the team with inferior talent can sometimes surprise. In this case, with a chance to become the first BYU team in 15 years to have b2b 11-win seasons, I expect the Cougars to still have plenty of "hunger." Note that BYU just signed its coach (Kalani Sitake) to a longterm deal, where there had been rumors that he might leave. BYU QB Hall said this of how coach Sitake had his team fired up: "He has kept so much focus on this game because that is just the type of man he is. He invests everything he has in us as players and making sure he prepares us to play the best we can. Every day has been the same thing as we approach it as a team. It is just about focusing on this game and realizing it is the most important bowl game we have ever played because it is the one we have next. Kalani has been pumping energy into us and the other coaches have done a great job of continually harping on the importance of this next game. I think as players we are taking it and running with it. I think the energy will stay the same because that is how we have been talking about it over the course of the past couple weeks." BYU receiver Romney added: "Getting to 11 wins is huge. This has been one of the hardest schedules that BYU has ever played. We have played and won against the most Power Five teams in BYU history. Cementing our legacy would be awesome, and to get 11 wins would be an amazing thing. … It would be unheard of. I think it would be really cool to go out with a bang." I've done a good job of going on/against BYU. I won with the Cougars when they put up 66 points in their win over Virginia. I also won by going against them in their last game, when they won but didn't cover against USC. I say they come in with a chip on their shoulder and win by double-digits. |
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12-18-21 | Appalachian State -3 v. Western Kentucky | 38-59 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm playing on APP STATE. Both offenses are excellent. However, they achieve their success in different ways. The Hilltoppers are going to throw the ball. The Mountaineers are going to run the ball. While both figure to move the ball effectively, I believe that Appalachian State's ability to control the clock, something which Western Kentucky is unable to do, will prove significant. OF course, the Mountaineers' superior defense will also be a factor. I backed the Mountaineers in last year's bowl win. Facing North Texas in the Myrtle Beach Bowl, they ran Appalachian State for 506 yards and six touchdowns, averaging 13 yards per carry. Including that blowout, they're 5-1 ATS their last six neutral site games. The Mountaineers won't match those ridiculous numbers but the're still going to have some big ones. Keep in mind that WKU allowed more than 300 rushing yards to UTSA in its last game. UTSA had a 37 mins to 23 mins time of possession advantage, a familiar theme for WKU. I played against the Hilltoppers in that one and I believe that their inability to stop the run will be their downfall again. Lay the small number. |
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12-04-21 | Utah State v. San Diego State -4 | Top | 46-13 | Loss | -120 | 145 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE. These teams both deserve credit for getting here. Neither were expected to do so. That said, I feel that the Aztecs are the stronger team. The Aggies wouldn't be here if San Diego State hadn't beaten Boise State last week. After everything that happened to the program last year, just being here is already a big win for Utah State. Of course, they want to win. However, the season has already been a huge success. That's not the case for the Aztecs; they're hungry for more. Last season's game wasn't even close. The Aggies ran for 407 yards. That was one of the best (9th all-time) rushing efforts in school history. I expect the Aztecs to dominate on the ground again. While one could possibly overlook Utah State giving up 437 rushing yards to Air Force, this season's Aggies also gave up 362 rushing yards to lowly Wyoming. The Aggies did bounce back from the blowout loss to Wyoming but the win came against a bad New Mexico team. They're also 4-8 ATS the last 12 times that they were off a conference loss. While the Aggie defense is highly suspect, the Aztecs are dominant on that side of the ball. They allow just 17.3 ppg. That's the 7th best mark in the country. While they got off to a 3-0 start, the Aggies have since stumbled against tough competition, losing against Boise and BYU. All their wins, since the 3-0 start, have been against weak or mediocre teams. On the other hand, the Aztecs have beaten the likes of Utah. I'm expecting them to pull away for a double-digit win. |
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12-03-21 | Western Kentucky v. UTSA +3.5 | Top | 41-49 | Win | 100 | 24 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTSA. I successfully played against the Roadrunners in their game against UAB. They were favored in that game though and I felt that they were over-valued. I'm not convinced that Western Kentucky is any better than UAB. Yet, this time, the Roadrunners are getting points. I believe that's providing us with excellent value. UTSA won by six when these teams met at Western Kentucky, earlier in the season. That one was close the entire way. Both teams have played some other close ones, too. Like WKU's 2-point game with Indiana or UTSA's 3-point games against Memphis and UAB. Off this season's first setback, note that the Roadrunners are 8-1 ATS the past nine times that they were off a SU loss. They're also 6-1 ATS their last seven, after allowing more than 200 rushing yards and 4-0 ATS their last four, after throwing for less than 170 yards. The Roadrunners played in bad weather, on the road, last week. They were dealing with increasing pressure from being undefeated. As their coach said, they were probably a "little off." Three turnovers didn't help. Now, however, they're back home. To a certain extent, the pressure is off. With the line having climbed from its opener, I believe we're getting excellent value. Grab the points. |
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11-27-21 | BYU v. USC +7 | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
I'm playing on USC. Admittedly, the Trojans haven't looked too good recently. Now, they face a tough BYU team. Naturally, I respect the Cougars. They've been solid all season and they came through for me in a big way in a recent win over Virginia. Still, unlike USC, they've clinched their bowl berth. The Trojans need this win, not only to salvage some pride but also to keep their bowl hopes alive. That would get them to five wins with a game against Cal on deck. While it may seem unlikely, I'm not writing them off from winning both those games. The Trojans are still loaded with talent, as per usual. Since that home win over Virginia, the Cougars have hosted Idaho State and played at Georgia State. Those teams don't have the type of talent USC does. Prior to Georgia State, the Cougars previous road game came at Washington State and they lost. The week before that, they played on the road, at Baylor. They lost. Their three road wins came at Utah State, Georgia State and Arizona. None of those teams were strong and the Cougars were 1-2 ATS in the wins. The point that I'm trying to make is that BYU hasn't played many tough road games and it has lost when on the road against decent teams. They're 4-8 ATS their last 12 as road favorites. Now, they're being asked to go on the road and lay a lot of points against a talented, desperate opponent. I believe that's asking too much and I'm grabbing the points. |
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11-27-21 | Oregon State v. Oregon -6.5 | Top | 29-38 | Win | 100 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on OREGON. The Ducks stumbled against Utah but I expect them to bounce back big this afternoon. Not only are the Ducks looking to atone for last week - a win sets up a rematch with Utah - but they've got revenge on their minds. The Beavers upset them last year, at Corvalis. The Beavers have been tough to beat at home this year, too. However, they've only played three road games (Colorado, Cal, Washington State) since the start of October and they lost all three. They lost those three by an average of eight points and none of those venues/teams are as tough as the one they'll contend with today. While last year's game was close, the previous six weren't. All six of those were decided by "double-digits," the Ducks taking five of them. The Ducks have won the last two against the Beavers here by a combined score of 93-20. Expect another double-digit win. |
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11-26-21 | Washington State v. Washington +1 | Top | 40-13 | Loss | -107 | 59 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. You often hear people state that "you can throw out the records" in these type of rivalry games. Personally, I don't necessarily subscribe to that theory; I never discount a team's record. However, in this case, I do indeed expect the team with the inferior record to prove victorious. The Huskies are argualy better than their record suggests. Their only loss of greater than 10 points was on the road, at Michigan. They had four losses of seven or less. So, they could easily have a better record. The Cougars have won just three of 12 road games the past couple of seasons and they've got an 0-2 ATS mark as road favorites, in those games. Sure, the Cougars are off an impressive 44-18 blowout of Arizona. The Wildcats aren't very good though and the Cougars are just 1-8 ATS the past nine times that they scored 40 or more points in their previous game. The Huskies have dominated the last six Apple Cup meetings, each win coming by double-digits. While I see this one being closer, in the end, I expect another Washington win. |
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11-26-21 | Kansas State v. Texas -3 | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 51 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TEXAS. Things sure fell apart for the Longhorns. They began the season by blowing out a solid LA Lafayette team. Through five games, they were 4-1 and averaging roughly 44 points per game. That included a 58-0 win and a 70-35 win over Texas Tech. With a 21-point lead in the Red River Rivalry Game, a 5-1 start looked imminent. Then, the wheels came off. The Sooners rallied for the biggest comeback in the history of the series and the Longhorns haven't won a single game since. This afternoon's game offers a chance to salvage some pride. I expect the Longhorns to make the most of it. K-State comes off a tough loss against Baylor. They managed only 10 points and 263 total yards. That was a game the Wildcats could have really used and it brings their positive momentum to an end. Note that Wildcats are 3-8 SU their last 11, when off a conference loss. They're also 0-4 ATS their last four, after passing for less than 170 yards in their previous game. The Longhorns have won four straight in the series. All four wins came by at least a field goal and last year's was a 69-31 blowout. Expect the Longhorns to show some pride and continue that series dominance on Black Friday. |
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11-23-21 | Western Michigan -3 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 42-21 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN. The Huskies have the better record and are playing at home. Yet, the Broncos are favored. That's for good reason, in my opinion. While the Broncos have fallen on hard times recently, this is still one of the top teams in the MAC. They played road games at (10-1) Michigan and (9-2) Pittsburgh earlier and came away with a split in those games. Naturally, they'd still like to win. However, the Huskies have already clinched the conference title. On the other hand, the Broncos know a victory here would surely punch their ticket to a bowl game. (They're probably good already but its not a certainty.) They've obvioulsy done a great job but I'm still not sold on the Huskies. I say the Broncos take this one, picking up the cover along the way. |
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11-20-21 | UAB +6 v. UTSA | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 128 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on UAB. With Oklahoma losing to Baylor, there are now only three undefeated teams remaining. Georgia is obviously the real deal. Cincinnati is also pretty strong. I'm not sold on the third team though. Unlike Georgia, UTSA has faced a very soft schedule. The Roadrunners toughest opponents were Illinois, Memphis and Western Kentucky. While the Roadrunners deserve credit for winning, all three of those games were close and they were fortunate to avoid any losses. They gave up more than 400 yards in all three of those games including a whopping 670 against WKU. With an early game at Georgia, UAB was never going to go undefeated. Still the Blazers are 7-3 SU/ATS and surely more "battle-tested" than their hosts. Throw out the Georgia loss and the Blazers are 5-0 on the road. All five wins came by at least a TD, three of them by more than 30 points. Last week's victory at Marshall was arguably as, or more, impressive than anything UTSA has done.The Blazers have beaten the Roadrunners each of the past four years and they held them to less than 300 yards of offense in each of them. I'll grab the points, as this one could be close, but I expect there to be one less undefeated team, when this one concludes. |
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11-19-21 | Southern Miss +15.5 v. Louisiana Tech | 35-19 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SOUTHERN MISS. Needless to say, the Golden Eagles have had a disappointing season. They haven't won in a game since September. That said, this game provides hope as the LA Tech defense is terrible. The Bulldogs give up 33.8 ppg and 448.9 ypg. They've won three games but none of those wins came by more than 10 points. They're 1-4 ATS their last five as favorites. They ultimately lost by 10. However, the Golden Eagles were tied with UTSA, a team which now has a 10-0 record, entering the fourth quarter of last week's game. A closer look reveals that USM had a dominating 37.14 to 22.46 edge in time of possession. While the Bulldogs are off a win and cover, they're 0-4 ATS their last four, when off an ATS victory. Last year's game was decided by a single point (31-30 LT) and the past five meetings have all been decided by 15 or less. The underdog is 5-1 ATS the last six in the series. Grab the points and look for this one to prove much closer than many will be expecting. |
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11-16-21 | Western Michigan -5.5 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on WMU. After getting upset by the Eagles last season, the Broncos have a score to settle. They're much better on both sides of the ball and the only reason the line is reasonable is due to the fact that they're on the road. That said, note that the road team is 5-1 ATS the past six meetings. Also, note that the Eagles have lost their last two games here, each loss coming by at least seven points. Meanwhile, the Broncos check in off a 45-40 victory. Admittedly, the defense wasn't as stingy as it normally is. However, it should be mentioned that the Broncos are 10-2 ATS, when coming off a game where they allowed 280 or more passing yards. So, they tend to respond from a sub-par defensive effort with a big game. Expect them to do exactly that tonight. They'll put up a big number and ultimately the Eagles won't be able to keep up. |
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11-13-21 | Stanford +13 v. Oregon State | Top | 14-35 | Loss | -119 | 101 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on STANFORD. For a team which has been playing such close games, the Beavers are laying a lot of points. The Beavers' last two games were losses of three and six points. Their last five games have all been decided by eight or less. Speaking of "close games," the last two meetings between these teams were both decided by a field goal. Stanford won both. In fact, the Cardinal have won 11 straight in the series. Oregon State just replaced its defensive coordinator as the defense has really struggled. The Beavers have allowed more than 30 points in each of their last four games. While the Cardinal have certainly disappointed, this is still a team which has wins against USC and Oregon. They're going to be hungry to get back on track and to prove they're better than they showed last game. I like that they're working with an extra day in betweem games. I'm expecting a close one and am grabbing the generous points. |
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11-13-21 | Rutgers v. Indiana -7 | 38-3 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm playing on INDIANA. The Hoosiers are 2-7 and haven't won in weeks. Yet, they're favored over a 4-5 Rutgers team which is still hoping to become bowl eligible. That may make the underdog seem appealing. However, Indiana is favored for good reason. The Knights are an even bigger mess than Indiana, physically and mentally. Last week, they were hammered by a score of 52-3. Don't expect the Hoosiers to feel sorry for them. They're a team which has been also been beaten up and they know that this is their chance to salvage some pride. The Hoosiers have thrived in this role over the years, as they're 13-4 SU and 12-5 ATS the past 17 times that they were home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. In fact, the Hoosiers are 8-1 ATS their last nine as a home favorite overall. They won by 16, at Rutgers, last season. The previous season, the Hoosiers won 35-0. Expect them to pull away for a double-digit win, improving to 7-3 ATS their last 10 in November. |
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11-12-21 | Cincinnati -23 v. South Florida | Top | 45-28 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on CINCINNATI. This is a mismatch and I expect it to get ugly. Undefeated on the season, the #5 ranked Bearcats want to make a statement that they're a national title contender. This is their chance to show the world how good they really are. Major advantages on both sides of the ball, I expect them to make the most of the opportunity. Off b2b double-digit losses, the Bulls have seen better days. They haven't faced an opponent as good as Cincinnati, yet they've lost by double-digits five times. Three of those losses came by greater than 21 points. Indeed, this is a USF team which is absolutely capable of getting blown out, again. The Bulls are going to have real trouble moving the ball and they won't be able to stop the Cincy ground game. While the Bearcats allow 14.9 ppg, the Bulls allow 34.3. Look for the Bearcats to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, as USF falls to 1-5 ATS (0-6 SU) its last six, when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 56.5 to 63 range. |
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11-11-21 | North Carolina +6.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on NORTH CAROLINA. The Tar Heels are off a win over Wake Forest. Down double-digits, they dominated the fourth quarter. While some might expect a letdown, I believe that type of comeback victory will provide them with positive momentum for this game. The Panthers are having a strong season. However, the Tar Heels match up well against them. Also, note that Pittsburgh lost outright to Miami last time it was on this field. Getting points in this matchup is an attractive proposition as games between these teams tend to be to close. They've met eight times since 2009 and ALL eight of those games were decided by seven points or less. Pittsburgh won the most recent game in OT. The previous three meetings were decided by three, three and one points. Overall, UNC has covered five of the past seven meetings. With the line having climbed from its opener, I'm grabbing the points. |
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11-09-21 | Akron v. Western Michigan -25.5 | Top | 40-45 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN. While the line may seem large, this is a mismatch. WMU, 11-5-1 ATS its last 17 as a favorite in the 21.5 to 31 range, has big edges on both sides of the ball. I successfully played on the Zips when they beat Bowling Green. That was their only conference win of the season though. The rest of their MAC games have been losses; their only other victory came against Bryant. Blowout losses (60-10 and 59-7) against Ohio State and Auburn were expected. However, the Zips have also been blown out (45-10) by the likes of Buffalo. Now, they've just fired their coach, who had led them to a 3-24 record during his time there. Don't expect the Broncos to show them any mercy. They're better than their record suggests and they still need a victory to become bowl eligible. They won 58-13 at Akron last year and this one will also get ugly. |
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11-06-21 | Old Dominion v. Florida International +3 | 47-24 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
I'm playing on FIU. The Monarchs are off an upset win. The Panthers are off a blowout loss. Yet, the Panthers match up well against this team. I see them scoring the upset and earning their first FBS victory since 2019. Last week was the low point, rock bottom. That was on the road though and ODU isn't nearly the team that Marshall is. The Monarchs are 0-10 on the road the past few seasons. Yet, they're laying points here. Off a rare conference win, I feel that they're ripe for a letdown. Grab the points. |
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11-06-21 | Penn State v. Maryland +10.5 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on MARYLAND. While I respect the Nittany Lions, I feel that this is a tough spot for them to be laying this many points on the road. For starters, the Nittany Lions have dropped three in a row. Also, the Terps can score points with the best of them. They average 29.5 ppg. Penn State averages 26.5 ppg. At home, the Terps average 36.2 ppg and 473 ypg. On the road, the Lions average 20 pgg and 326 ypg. True, Penn State may be thinking about revenge. Maryland scored a major upset in winning 35-19 at State College last year. That result should give the Terps confidence though. Also, Penn State is still probably thinking about what could have been, coming off three straight close losses - the first two by a field goal or less and last week by single digits against Ohio State. Those type of losses take a toll. On the other hand, Maryland snapped a losing streak of its own last week, earning a momentum building 38-35 victory vs. Indiana. I also like the fact that Penn State has a huge game vs. Michigan on deck. As badly as the Lions need this win, they'll still have next week's game in the back of their minds. While the Terps have struggled against top tier teams (Iowa, Ohio State) I like how this one sets up for them. Remember, this is arguably a better Maryland team then the one which beat the Lions on the road last year. Look for Penn State to fall to 2-8 ATS the past 10 times it was off a Big Ten loss. |
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11-06-21 | Colorado State v. Wyoming +3.5 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WYOMING. The Cowboys are on an ugly 4-game slide. However, I expect them to right the ship this afternoon. I believe that the Cowboys are catching the Rams, who have lost b2b games of their own, at the right time. While they ultimately came up short, the Cowboys' offense, including the ground game, was solid at San Jose State last week. They ran for 272 yards and had an edge in both first downs and time of possession. A similar formula will serve them well this afternoon. While they lost at CSU last season, the Cowboys are still 4-1 ATS the past five meetings. They won by 10 here in 2019. Grab the points. |
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11-06-21 | Liberty v. Ole Miss -10 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 137 h 19 m | Show | |
I'm playing on OLE MISS. The Flames only previous game against an SEC opponent resulted in a 53-0 loss. This one won't be nearly as lopsided. However, in the end, I expect another double-digit victory for the SEC team. While Liberty has a strong team again this season, this is also a very talented Rebels team. Ole Miss has only lost twice. Both losses were on the road. Both came in the state of Alabama. The Rebels have beaten the likes of Louisville, Tennessee, Arkansas and LSU. They're 5-0 here and four of the victories were by 14 or more points. Despite having played a very weak schedule, the Flames already have a loss. They lost outright as 32 point favorite. Favored by more than 20 points in each of their last four games and with UAB being their toughest opponent, the Flames haven't faced anything near the type of talent they'll see here. The Rebels have thrived as favorites. Expect them to pull away for a convinving victory. |
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11-04-21 | Georgia State v. UL-Lafayette -12 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on LOUISIANA. I backed the Cajuns on Saturday and said to expect a blowout. Laying -21 points, they won 45-0. Georgia State represents a tougher opponent. However, I still believe its a mismatch. The Cajuns are that strong. True, the Panthers played them tough last year. Louisiana only won 34-31. That was at Georgia State though. The Cajuns were also off one of the biggest wins in program history as they had just upset a Top 25 team (Iowa State) on the road, one of the biggest wins in school history. Off that "emotional" victory, the Cajuns were in a tough spot to go on the road. This one sets up much differently though. This time, instead of playing b2b road games, the Cajuns are off a comfortable blowout win, right here at home. Playing on a short week, that will serve them well. On the other hand, the Panthers are off an "emotional" road win against an instate rival. This time, they're the team playing b2b road games. Playing on a short week, in that situation, won't help them. The Cajuns are 7-3 ATS their last 10, as home favorites in the -10.5 to -14 range. With a chance to show the ESPN audience how strong they are, expect the Cajuns to improve on those stats tonight. |
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10-30-21 | Texas State v. UL-Lafayette -20.5 | 0-45 | Win | 100 | 115 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing on LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE. This is a major mismatch and I'm expecting a blowout. These teams have met eight times. The Cajuns won all eight of those games and they covered seven of them. They outgained the Bobcats by an average of 506-304 yards in those games, too. The talent gap is arguably bigger than ever. I like that the Cajuns eked out a victory in their last game. It was their third win of three points or less already. After each of the previous two "close wins," they responded by blowing out their next opponent. The scores were 49-14 vs. Ohio and 41-13 vs. App. State. Remember, Texas State gave up 42 points in a loss to "Incarnate Word," an FCS school and was also blown out 59-21 at Eastern Michigan. Not that they need any extra advantages, but the Cajuns have also had a couple extra days in between games. Expect this score to get ugly. |
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10-29-21 | Navy v. Tulsa -10.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on TULSA. I love how this one sets up for the Golden Hurricane. While Tulsa is off a hard-fought close win, Navy is off a hard-fought close loss. This is a young Navy team and they really left it all on the field against a top team in Cincinnati. Having nearly pulled off the monumental upset, (the Midshipmen were 29 point underdogs) only to come up short, will take a toll this week. Playing on the road, on a short-week, doesn't make matters any easier on the Midshipmen. Note that the Midshipmen are winles on the road this season, most recently losing by 18, at Memphis. While Navy plays on a short week, Tulsa is off a bye. The Golden Hurricane are 6-1 ATS their last seven, when off a bye. They won by 13, at Navy last year. Schedule, venue and setup in their favor, expect an even bigger margin of victory on Friday night. |
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10-23-21 | Colorado +8.5 v. California | 3-26 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing on COLORADO. The Bears are laying more than a touchdown. For a team which is just 1-5, I believe that's asking a lot. Cal is just 2-9-1 ATS its last 12 games here. The Buffaloes have won three of the past five meetings. One of Cal's victories, over that 10-year stretch, came by a field goal. To put that another way, the Bears have only beaten the Buffaloes by more than a field goal (they won by 12) once in the past decade. The Bears battled hard against the Ducks last time out but came up short. That would have been a big win for them but to come up short figures to be demoralizing. On the other hand, the Buffaloes have some positive momentum, as they're off a 24-0 shutout victory. Expect this to be a close game and grab the generous points. |
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10-23-21 | Wisconsin -3.5 v. Purdue | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 32 h 48 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WISCONSIN. The Boilermakers are off a big win over Iowa but I don't expect them to be able to duplicate that feat against Wisconsin. After a slow start, the Badgers have found their form. The defense is stingy, as per usual. Some recent low scores notwithstanding, this also a very talented Badger offense. The Badgers have beaten Purdue 14 straight times. Every one of those victories came by at least a field goal, too. Note that Purdue is just 1-5 SU/ATS its last six, when the line ranged from -3 to +3. While the Boilermakers are improved, this isn't the year that they snap the series losing streak. Badgers win again and cover the small number along the way. |
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10-23-21 | Syracuse v. Virginia Tech -3 | 41-36 | Loss | -110 | 111 h 9 m | Show | |
I'm playing on VT. The Orange have endured three straight 3-point defeats. Those type of demoralizing losses eventually catch up to a team. I expect that to be the case here. The early start time and the boisterous Hokie home crowd won't make things any easier for the Orange. Note that Orange may have fared well as underdogs recently but they're still just 1-5 ATS the past six times they played a game with a line ranging from -3 to +3. Off b2b losses of their own and with b2b road games on deck, the Hokies can't afford to squander this opportunity. Remember, this is a VT team which defeated UNC. The Hokies are better than their record suggests. Expect them to bounce back with an important victory, covering the small number along the way. |
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10-22-21 | Memphis v. Central Florida -2.5 | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 121 h 34 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UCF. The Tigers come in with the better record but the Knights are favored for good reason. While the Knights have lost three games, all three of those losses came on the road. While they would have liked to have won at Navy and Louisville, those were both very close losses. Also, there's no shame in losing at Cincinnati. At home, the Knights are 3-0, including a victory over Boise State. The Tigers have also struggled on the road. They've lost their last two road games; their only road win came at Arkansas State. The Red Wolves aren't good, yet the Tigers only won by five and they gave up 50 points. Going back further finds Memphis at 4-9 ATS its last 13 road games. While the Knights have had trouble covering larger spreads, this line is low enough that a SU victory should also result in an ATS win. That said, the Knights are 5-1 SU their last six off a conference loss and 11-2 SU their last 13 at home. Speaking of "homefield dominance," the Knights are 7-0 ATS their last seven as a host in this series. All seven wins came by at least a TD. Look for the Knights to continue their success here, avenging a tough loss at Memphis last year. |
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10-20-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Appalachian State +3.5 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 73 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on APPALACHIAN STATE. Needless to say, this is a huge game for both teams. Coastal Carolina wants to stay undefeated. Appalachian State wants respect and revenge. It's true that the Mountaineers have a couple of losses. In fact, I successfully played against them in their last game. However, it's also true that both of their losses came on the road. They're 3-0 here at home, 14-2 the past few seasons. Having lost at Conway last year, the Mountaineers are thrilled to get this matchup here at home. They hammered the Chanticleers 56-37 the last meeting here. They're also 4-1 ATS their last five as underdogs. I feel that these teams are quite evenly matched. Yes, the Chanticleers brought back a lot from last year's strong team. The same is true of the Mountaineers though. Speaking of 2020, last year's game had a line of -3, despite Coastal Carolina playing at home. That said, getting points at home is great value. In what should be a good team, I expect AT LEAST a cover for the revenge-minded Mountaineers. |
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10-16-21 | Michigan State v. Indiana +4.5 | 20-15 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 19 m | Show | |
I'm playing on INDIANA. The Spartans have been better than the Hoosiers so far this season. This is a very tough spot for them though and I believe that they'll find out that Indiana is better than advertised. The Spartans are off a road win and they've got a bye, followed by Michigan, on deck. If there's even a game to look ahead to, it's that one. Always a big game, this year's meeting with the Wolverines is really being looked forward to, with both the instate rivals off to strong starts. With the Wolverines playing their second straight on the road here, I like that the kickoff time is 12 ET. The Hoosiers are 4-2 ATS (5-1 SU) the past six times that they were off a conference loss and they're 8-3 ATS their last 11 here at home. Of course, the Hoosiers have a big game of their own (Ohio State) on deck. However, they're off a bye and they don't have the luxury of looking ahead. This is their homecoming game and they're going to be focused on the task at hand. The Hoosiers are an experienced team, one which beat Michigan State 24-0 last year. While they still won't get Penix Jr back, it was the defense which dominated the Spartans last year. (Penix had 2 TDs but also threw 2 INTs) The Hoosiers had a 433-191 edge in total yards. I'm grabbing the points. |
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10-15-21 | San Diego State v. San Jose State +10 | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SJ SJTATE. Naturally, I respect the Aztecs. This is a big number though and its risen from its opener. I believe we're getting excellent value with an under-rated and under-valued Spartans side. The Spartans have struggled on the road but they have yet to lose at home. The Spartans have played the Aztecs tough. They lost by three in 2018 and by 10 in 2019. Then, last year, they beat the Aztecs outright. That 28-17 victory will provide them with the confidence to know they can complete in this game. Note that they held SDSU to a season low 2.2 ypc in that game. Even off last week's loss, the Spartans are still 10-5 ATS in Conference play, the past few seasons. Expect them to bounce back by giving their guests all that they can handle. |
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10-15-21 | Clemson -14 v. Syracuse | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -108 | 96 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEMSON. The Tigers haven't been a good bet this year; they're 0-5 ATS thus far. I expect them to finally snap that streak Friday though as I love how this one sets up. First, understand that Clemson has far superior athletes across the board. The Tigers may have struggled to being the post-Lawrence era but they're still extremely talented. The defense is among the best in the country. Clemson bounced back from a loss to win its last game. It wasn't pretty but I like that the Tigers found a way to get the victory. They've since had a bye and are ready to make a statement in front of the national audience. Remember, this is a team and coach with a lot of pride. They don't like hearing all the talk about their reign being over. Note that Clemson is 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) its last six off a bye. While the Tigers are playing with extra rest and preparation time, the Orange play on a short week. They're off their second straight very close loss, too. Those are the type of defeats that take a toll, particularly when a team has suffered two of them in a row. Last time the Tigers came here they won by a score of 41-7. I'm expecting another blowout. |
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10-12-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette +5 | Top | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 26 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE on Tuesday. These are both solid teams and this should be a good game. I believe that the Rajin' Cajuns are providing outstanding value. Both teams have won the games which they were expected to win. Each is 4-1. Their losses came at Miami and at Texas. So, they were also expected. It's true that the Mountaineers played the Hurricanes closer than the Cajuns played the Longhorns. They still lost (a close one) though. It's also true that the Mountaineers are off the bigger win. That's fine with me though; those results have helped this line climb. The Cajuns still won a road game; I like the fact that they've learned to win the close ones. (Three of their four wins have been by single digits, two by three points or less.) Knowing how to win those close games will serve the Cajuns well in this one. For what it's worth, the last time that they were on this field, the Cajuns crushed Ohio by a score of 49-14. That's a bigger margin of victory than App. State has managed in a game this season. The last five meetings have all been quite close, each decided by 11 or less. After coming out on the wrong side of those games for several seasons in a row, the Cajuns finally broke through with a 3-point win in last year's game. I'm expecting another close one. Note that the line has climbed from its opener, providing additional value. While I believe that the Cajuns have a great shot at the outright win, I'm happy to grab the points |
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10-09-21 | Buffalo v. Kent State -5 | Top | 38-48 | Win | 100 | 130 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on KENT STATE. The Golden Flashes had some lean years recently. So, many still think of them as a really bad team. The opposite is true of Buffalo. The Bulls have been really strong the past few seasons. So, many have an idea of them being a MAC powerhouse. This year is different though. The Bulls lost a lot of players from last year. Last year's coach left in the spring and a number of players followed him out the door, along with the entire coaching staff. That means that its all new players and new systems. Kent State, on the other hand, is highly experienced. Yet, because the Golden Flashes have played road games at Texas A&M, Iowa and Maryland, their stats make them look bad. The Bulls dropped 70 on the Golden Flashes in the last game of last season, setting a number of records along the way. Kent State has been waiting for Saturday's rematch ever since. The Golden Flashes are 8-1 ATS their last nine against teams with losing records. Expect them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way here, putting up a big number en route to a double-digit win. |
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10-09-21 | San Jose State +3 v. Colorado State | 14-32 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 47 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SJ STATE. This line opened closer to pick but has climbed from its opener. I feel that's providing us excellent value with the visitors. The Spartans are the reigning MWC champs. They were 7-1 last year and they're 3-2 this year. Remember, they brought back 19 starters from last year's team and are arguably even stronger. The Rams, on the other hand, were 1-3 last year and have just one win so far this year. While I do believe the Rams are better than that record suggests and improved from last year, I still feel that this is a tough matchup for them. Note that the Rams have a couple of key players who are banged-up. Also, note that road team is 4-0 ATS the last four meetings in the series. I say the Spartans improve on those stats with AT LEAST a cover on Saturday afternoon. |
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10-09-21 | Arkansas v. Ole Miss -5 | 51-52 | Loss | -110 | 137 h 54 m | Show | |
I'm playing on OLE MISS. Both teams got thumped on the road last weekend. Ole Miss lost 42-21, at Alabama. Arkansas' loss was worse. The Razorbacks lost 37-0, at Georgia. I believe that the Rebels are the superior team. Playing at home, I expect them to be the team which bounces back from last week's loss. I also ike the fact that the game got moved to the morning slot; this is the third straight game that the Razorbacks have played away from home. (Prior to the game at Georgia, they faced Texas A&M, at Arlington.) The home team is 4-1 ATS the past five in this series. The Razorbacks won by 12 at Arkansas last season. The Rebels won by 14 here the previous year. The Rebels won 61-21 the last time that they were a home favorite. I'm expecting another double-digit win. |
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10-09-21 | Akron +14.5 v. Bowling Green | 35-20 | Win | 100 | 114 h 54 m | Show | |
I'm playing on AKRON. I don' think that there's much separating these teams, in terms of talent. Consider that Akron won 31-3 when these teams met last year. That result will provide the Zips, who brought back 18 starters from that team, with confidence for this one. While the early results haven't been there, this team is stronger than last year. Games at Auburn and Ohio State didn't help the stats but should serve the Zips well here. Meanwhile, Bowling Green brought back only 11 starters. Sure, Bowling Green has a couple of wins. One was by four points though. Now, this relatively inexperienced team is laying points for the first time since 2019. Note that the Falcons are just 3-7 ATS their last 10 as favorites. Expect them to have their hands full the entire way in this one. |
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10-08-21 | Charlotte v. Florida International +4 | Top | 45-33 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on FIU. In a game where I expect the Panthers to win outright, getting points is a nice bonus.The Panthers are coming into this game extremely hungry. Butch Davis' Panthers lost in OT to Texas State back on 9/11. It was a hard-fought game that they could have won. Since then, their next three have come on the road. So, it's not surprising that they lost them. Charlotte hasn't won on the road either. Both the 49'ers road games have resulted in double-digit losses. This is the only time in this season's schedule where they'll be playing consecutive road games. The short week figures to favor the home team. Remember, the Panthers brought back 18 players from last year while Charlotte brought only back 13. Note that the 49'ers are banged up in their secondary, an area where they lost some key guys from last year. These teams met here in 2019. The Panthers won 48-23. This one will likely be a lot closer (FIU won each of the previous three by a TD or less including two 1-point wins) but I expect the end result to remain the same. Grab the points. |
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10-07-21 | Houston v. Tulane +7 | 40-22 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TULANE. This line has gone up and I believe that's providing us with excellent value. The Green Wave have played some really tough opponents. September's schedule included Oklahoma, Ole Miss and UAB. Then, they started October on the road. Obviously, Houston is another talented opponent. Still, the Green Wave are at home and I believe that they're going to be bringing their best effort. Note that Houston is 4-11-1 ATS its past 16 as a road favorite of -3.5 to -7 points. (Nine of those were outright losses.) Also, recall that Tulane very nearly beat the Sooners. The Green Wave, who have an experienced offense, traded punches with the Cougars for a half, at Houston, last year. In fact, Tulane had a 24-21 lead at halftime. Playing at home, Houston pulled away in the second half. The Green Wave are 9-2 ATS their last 11 lined home games though. This is a very big game for them. They're "battle tested" and I expect them to give their guests all they can handle. Grab the points. |
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10-02-21 | Fresno State v. Hawaii +10.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 110 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on HAWAII. I respect the Bulldogs. However, they're laying a lot of points here and I expect them to have their hands full. Hawaii brought back 18 starters from last year's team. Last year's team won 34-19, at Fresno State. The line for that game was only +2.5. Now, playing at home with arguably a stronger team, the Warriors are getting considerably more points. Value. Fresno State also returned a ton of starters, as the Bulldogs brought back 19 from last year's team. They only beat UNLV by eight last week though, a game where they were laying -30 points. Kind of disturbing to give up 281 passing yards and 30 points to the Rebels. Note that the Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS the past five times that they allowed more than 280 passing yards in their previous game. Also, note that their last three games against Div 1 teams have all been decided by eight points or less. The Warriors are off a confidence-building 41-21 blowout win at New Mexico State. Before that, in their last game here, they played a good San Jose State team tough. They lost by only four points. Speaking of close games, Fresno's last visit here was decided on a field goal, 41-38, as time expired. I'm expecting another close one and am grabbing the generous points. |
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10-02-21 | New Mexico State v. San Jose State -26 | 31-37 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 26 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SAN JOSE STATE. The Aggies are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Spartans are a much better team than they've shown. Their problem is that their last three games have come on the road. Their next is also on the road, before they have a big game here against San Diego State here in the middle of the month. That being the case, they're going to want to build confidence with a one-sided blowout. They're stronger on both sides of the ball and I fully expect them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. The Spartans are 2-0 ATS over the years, as home favorites in the -21.5 to -31 range. Note that the line has come down from its opener, providing some additional value. These teams used to play in the same conference; the last meeting was a 47-7 destruction, the Spartans outgaining the Aggies by a 504-220 margin. While that was a number of years ago, we can expect another lopsided result tonight.  |
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10-02-21 | USC -7.5 v. Colorado | 37-14 | Win | 100 | 47 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing on USC. The Trojans didn't play well last week. They're still a talented team though and they're going to be in an angry mood for this one. I expect them to take out their anger on an outmatched Colorado team. The Buffaloes have really struggled. After beating up on a bad Northern Colorado team, they only scored seven points against Texas A&M. Next, they lost 30-0 to Minnesota. (That looks even worse after the Gophers went on to lose as 30-point favorites against Bowling Green.) Then, last week, Colorado lost 35-13 against Arizona State. Those are all fairly tough opponents, but so is USC. Note that The Buffaloes are now 0-5 ATS the past five times that they were off a loss of 20 or more points. Meanwhile, the Trojans are 4-1-1 ATS the past six times that they were favored in the -3.5 to -9.5 range. They've dominated the Buffaloes for years and that continues Saturday afternoon. |
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10-02-21 | Tennessee v. Missouri -2.5 | 62-24 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 46 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MISSOURI. The Tigers are 0-2 on the road but 2-0 at home. Both wins came by double-digits. The Vols lost their only road game by 24 points. Of course, those results are largely based on the opponents that these teams were facing. Still, homefield figures to prove significant. The Tigers have won 11 of 15 here the past few seasons. The Vols are 4-6 on the road, during the same span. Note that this is the only time all season that the Vols will play two road games in two weeks. I believe that the beating put on them by the Gators will take a toll in this early road game. Note that the favorite is 5-1 ATS the past six in the series. Also, note that Tennessee is just 1-6 ATS (0-7 SU) its last seven as an underdog. The Vols won at Tennessee last year. However, the Tigers brought back considerably more from last year than did the Vols. Expect them to avenge that loss, covering the small number along the way. |
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09-30-21 | Virginia v. Miami-FL -3 | Top | 30-28 | Loss | -115 | 98 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. Though I successfully backed them against Illinois, I'm not a big believer in this year's Cavaliers. Last week, they got hammered by Wake Forest. The Deacons have a good team this year but that result still showed that Virginia has a lot of work to do. That's b2b losses of 20 points. Things don't get any easier. Off a 69-0 victory, Miami is full of confidence. Having faced the likes of Alabama (and Michigan State) the Canes are battle tested. Miami won last year's meeting by five and won by eight the year before that. I see an even bigger margin of victory in this one. |
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09-25-21 | California v. Washington -7 | Top | 24-31 | Push | 0 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. I had this game circled when the schedule came out. I've wanted to play it since the line came out but have waited patiently for it to come down. The reality is, however, that I'm expecting a convincing double-digit win for the Huskies. This year's team is loaded, stronger than many realize; they got on track in a big way last week. That 52-3 beating of Arkansas State gives them plenty of confidence and positive momentum. The Bears' lone victory came last week against Sacramento State - and they gave up more than 400 passing yards in the process. The previous week, they gave up 271 yards on the ground. Indeed, this is a porous Cal defense and Washington will put up a big number. Considering that the Huskies have allowed 13 and three points in their two games, I don't believe that the Bears will be able to keep up. The Bears have won b2b closes one in the series. Tonight, their vastly superior defense making the difference, the Huskies avenge those losses in blowout fashion. |
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09-25-21 | Louisville v. Florida State +1 | 31-23 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm playing on FSU. I like the Seminoles to score the minor upset this afternoon. With an 0-3 record for the first time since 1976, everyone is pretty down on the Noles at the moment. Yes, losing to Jacksonville State is pretty sad. However, "letdowns" do happen to college teams and the Noles had just left it all on the field in a heartbreaking loss against Notre Dame. Last game, the Noles were beaten up on the road against Wake Forest. As we saw last night, however, the Deacons have a strong team this season. So, the losses against Notre Dame and at Wake Forest weren't unexpected. And the loss against Jacksonville State, though inexcusable, still "made sense." Keep in mind that FSU brought back 17 players from last year's team and that their coach is in his second year here. One of last year's worst losses came at the hands of these same Cardinals, at Louisville. Unlike the Noles, the Cardinals lost quite a lot from last year's team. They got pounded in their lone road game; they're just 2-8 their last 10 on the road. I say the Noles dig deep, get some payback from last year, and avoid the dreaded 0-4 start. |
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09-24-21 | Wake Forest +4 v. Virginia | Top | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 69 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on WAKE FOREST. I won with the Cavaliers in their blowout win over Illinois. However, UNC brought them back down to earth last week and I expect them to have their hands full again on Friday night. Wake Forest beat Virginia 40-23 last season. This year's team is even better, as the Deacons returned 20 starters from last year's team. While the Cavs were getting beaten up by the Tar Heels last week, the Deacons are off a confidence-building 35-14 beatdown of Florida State. Indeed, this team is better than many may yet realize. Note that WF is 5-1 ATS its last six, when coming off a SU victory. Including last year's victory, the Deacons are a perfect 6-0 ATS the past six meetings in the series. (They've won the last four meetings outright and the two before that were losses of one point and three points.) The Cavs will eventually snap that streak. Just not on Friday night. Grab the points. |
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09-18-21 | Arkansas State v. Washington -17 | 3-52 | Win | 100 | 29 h 11 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Red Wolves are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off b2b losses, the Huskies are going to be in a very angry mood. Arkansas State left it all on the field last game but ultimately came up short, a tough 55-50 loss against Memphis. The Red Wolves had a late rally and finished the game with an edge in stats. Still, to lose that type of game stings. Now, they travel West to take on a superior opponent that will show them no mercy. Keep in mind that the Red Wolves are 1-7 ATS the past eight times that they had allowed 40 or more points in their previous game. The Red Wolves' strength is their passing attack. However, the Huskies haven't given up a TD through the air yet and are only giving up 74.5 ypg (#1 in the country) through the air. Yes, the Washington offense has struggled thus far. The Red Wolves defense is weak against both the run and the pass though and provides a perfect opportunity to get healthy. Washington's superior offensive and defensive line play proves significant, the Huskies getting back on track in blowout fashion. |
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09-18-21 | Virginia Tech v. West Virginia -2.5 | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WVU. I won with the Hokies when they upset UNC. So, I'm fully aware that they're a capable team. That was at home though, where the Hokies enjoy a great homefield advantage. Now, they're on the road, facing an upset and experienced WVU team. Yet, the Hokies are getting far fewer points than they were at home against the Tar Heels. Note that they're just 2-4 SU/ATS the past six times that they played a game where the line ranged from +3 to -3. They're also 1-6 ATS their last seven on the road and 0-4 ATS after allowing 280 or more passing yards in their previous game. Additionally, note that depth at receiever is a bit of an issue for the Hokies with tight-end Mitchell out with injury. Off its loss at Maryland, the Mountaineers took out some of their anger on LIU, delivering a 66-0 thrashing. That'll give them plenty of confidence going into this one but they're still mad from the Maryland loss. They're 9-1-1 ATS their last 11 as home favorites, 6-0-1 ATS ther last seven at home. Expect them to improve on those stats Sat. afternoon. |
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09-18-21 | Michigan State v. Miami-FL -6 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. At first glance, it may appear that the Spartans are off to a much better start than the Hurricanes. They're 2-0 SU/ATS while Miami is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. Those records aren't surprising though. The Spartans beat Northwestern but they were catching the Wildcats playing their first game, after losing most of their offense from last year. So, a nice win, but not entirely shocking. Their next game was against Youngstown State. So, winning that game was obviously expected. Miami has played much tougher competition. The Canes first game was vs Alabama. So, a loss wasn't that surprising. Next was Appalachian State. Though they didn't cover, the Canes did a good job of bouncing back from the opening day loss, to earn the SU win. Now, that first victory under their belts and fully recovered from the Bama beating, they'll be ready to put it all together. Even with the win at Northwestern, the Spartans are still just 3-8 ATS their last 11 as underdogs, 0-4 ATS as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range. While many seem to be jumping on the bandwagon, expect the Spartans to receive a reality check on Saturday afternoon. |
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09-16-21 | Ohio +21 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 14-49 | Loss | -117 | 36 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on OHIO. Neither team is pleased with how its played so far. The Cajuns lost to Texas. No shame in that, except that they were blown out 38-18. They followed it up by only beating Nicholls by a field goal. Not good, when considering they were laying nearly four TDs. Ohio has been even worse. The Bobcats followed up a loss against Syracuse by losing outright to Duquesne. I'm of the mind that both teams are a lot better than they've shown and that both will be playing better on Thursday. That said, this is a lot of points for the Cajuns to be laying, considering they only just beat Nicholls by a field goal. Ohio has a veteran coach and a veteran team. The Bobcats are coming in desperate. Look for them to provide a much tougher test than many will be expecting. |
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09-11-21 | Washington +7 v. Michigan | 10-31 | Loss | -117 | 25 h 11 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Huskies got caught looking ahead to this game and were upset as big favorites last week. As a result, not many are giving them a chance in this one. They're a much better team than they showed though and I'm confident we'll see that this evening. Last week's results have worked in our favor, in helping to create additional line value. Michigan was able to have its way on offense against Western Michigan but the Wolverines will have a much tougher time against a tough Washington defense. The Huskies are still 4-1 ATS their last five non-conf. games while the Wolverines are 2-3 ATS their last five. Going back further finds Michigan at 4-11 ATS its last 15 against the Pac-12. While I'm aware, they're banged up at the receiver position, I believe that the Huskies are going to surprise a lot of people and I'm grabbing the points. |
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09-11-21 | Georgia Southern +7 v. Florida Atlantic | 6-38 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 28 m | Show | |
I'm playing on GEORGIA SOUTHERN. While I respect the Owls, I also believe that Georgia Southern is better than many realize. The Eagles ran for 365 yards in winning their opening game. They controlled the clock for more than 35 minutes. On the other hand, the Owls allowed more than 400 yards on the ground, giving up nearly nine yards per carry. Obviously, FAU played a MUCH tougher opponent. So, those results need to be taken with a grain of salt. That said, the Eagles will still have success on the ground. While they didn't cover in their Week 1 win, the Eagles are 8-0 ATS their last eight, after an ATS loss. Having beaten FAU by a score of 20-3 last year, they're coming in confident. The Owls are 2-12 ATS their last 14, as home favorites in the 3.5 to 7 range. Grab the points. |
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09-11-21 | Ball State +22.5 v. Penn State | 13-44 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 28 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BALL STATE. The Nittany Lions are off a big upset win. They only scored 16 points though and they're laying more than that here. I believe that's asking a lot. Off its win at Wisconsin and with Auburn on deck, this is a very tough scheduling spot. Note that PSU is just 4-8 ATS its last 12 home games. The Cardinals are an experienced team. They put up 31 points in winning their opener by double-digits. They're 9-2 ATS their last 11 when getting points, 14-6 ATS over the years against Big Ten teams. Grab the points and look for this one to be much closer than many will be expecting. |
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09-11-21 | Illinois v. Virginia -9.5 | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 93 h 42 m | Show | |
I'm playing on VIRGINIA. The Illini scored an upset of Nebraska, only to then lose to UTSA. Keep in mind this is a team with a new coach, essentially in rebuild mode. Now, they're on the road to take on a stronger Virginia team. Off a 43-0 romp, the Cavs are full of confidence. They're 9-4-1 ATS their last 14, when laying points and they're 10-3-1 ATS (13-1 SU) their last 14 at home. That home field advantage should definitely be working in their favor for this 11am ET start. The Cavs defense was dominant last week. They didn't even allow a first down until their opponent was on its fifth possession. In the end, Virginia would surrender only 183 total yards. Eventually, the offense got going to the tune of 545 yards. I don't feel that the Illini are ready for what they'll find here; I'm expecting another double-digit win for the Cavs. |
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09-04-21 | Stanford v. Kansas State -2.5 | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 110 h 28 m | Show | |
I'm playing on K-STATE. While this game will be played at a neutral site, the Wildcats will have the majority of the fans in their favor. The early starting time stongly favors K-State and Stanford coach David Shaw is the first to admit it. He had this to say, when learning about the schedule: "This is either complete disregard, or lack of understanding how difficult it is to be a West Coast team, that travels east and gets forced to play an early kickoff game ..." More recently he added: "I still think it's ridiculous." While the venue and kickoff time should favor K-State, the Wildcats also have the more experienced offense. They've got 10 returning starters on that side of the ball compared to six for Stanford. The Wildcats should be better on both sides of the ball this season. The Cardinal are 3-7 ATS their last 10 as underdogs. During that span, the Cats are 5-2 ATS as favorites. I expect them to improve on those stats Saturday morning. |
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09-03-21 | North Carolina v. Virginia Tech +6 | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on V-TECH. The Tar Heels are tough on both sides of the ball and deserving of their national ranking. This is a very tough opening game though. Blacksburg has never been an easy place to play. Now, the fans are back and the Hokies should be much improved. While the offense will be good again, the Heels lost some serious firepower from last year. Note that they're just 5-5 on the road under Brown. Last year, they lost at (3-6) Florida State and (5-5) Virginia. After missing out on a bowl game for the first time in 27 years, the Hokies are coming into this season with a chip in their shoulder. They're 4-2 ATS their last six getting points overall and 6-3 ATS their last nine, as underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. I say homefield proves significant and that the Heels give the Hokies all that they can handle. |
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09-01-21 | UAB v. Jacksonville State +17 | 31-0 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE STATE. The Blazers won the C-USA championship again last season. The Gamecocks have been dominating the Ohio Valley. Naturally, UAB is favored. There's a lot to like about the Gamecocks in this one though and this is a very generous spread. I really like the fact that they've had a spring season under their belts. I like that Jacksonville State has a senior QB with 61 career TD passes to his credit. UAB replaces its career leading rusher and the Gamecocks have held nine straight (reg. season) opponents to less than 100 yards on the ground. These campuses are close to each other, so both will want to play hard. That said, UAB could easily already be thinking about next week's showdown with Georgia. Finally, I like the fact that the coaches are friends. In fact, they were in the same graduating class and they've previously worked together. In a game that may well prove a lot closer than many will be expecting, I'm grabbing the points. |
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08-28-21 | Nebraska -7 v. Illinois | Top | 22-30 | Loss | -105 | 745 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEBRASKA. It sounds funny but a case can be made that this is one of Nebraska's most important games of the season. The Huskers absolutely need a positive start. Beating a team which embarrassed them last year is a great place to begin. Beating Brett Bielema, new coach of Illinois, will make it even sweeter. Nebraska coach Frost commented: "The one thing we need is momentum right now. There's so many good things that are happening in our program. These kids deserve a little wind under their wings, and that first game's going to be an opportunity for us against a Big Ten opponent. So that really is a big game." Frost has plenty of talent and now he's had plenty of time with his team. The cupboard isn't bare for Bielema either, thanks to his "super seniors." That said, its going to take some time. He can't be expected to work miracles overnight. The Huskers are 13-8 ATS their last 21, as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. I see them settling the score from last year with a double-digit win to start the season. |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State v. Alabama -7 | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 229 h 26 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ALABAMA. I won with the Buckeyes against Clemson. However, this Alabama team is in an entirely different class. The Buckeyes were on a mission to avenge last year's loss against Clemson. Obviously, they want to take the next step and beat Alabama, too. However, even if they don't, they've already proven that they belong and have "accomplished their mission." Coach Day commented: " ... This was big for us. This was a statement for us as a program to win a CFP game, especially after what happened last year. And to play the way we did, it means a lot for our program." For Alabama, on the other hand, nothing has been accomplished. This is a team which is on a mission to win the National title. As impressive as they were in beating up on Clemson, the Buckeyes got beaten up themselves in the process. QB Fields, the hero of the Sugar Bowl win, had this to say after the game: " ... I took like a shot or two in the medical tent and just ran back out there. But I mean it's pretty much my whole right torso that's messed up, a little bit of my hip ... " As much as I respect the Buckeyes, the Tide are simply better on both sides of the ball. Alabama will put up a big number, as it has done every game this season; ultimately, Ohio State won't be able to keep up. |
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01-02-21 | North Carolina v. Texas A&M -7 | Top | 27-41 | Win | 100 | 28 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS A&M. The SEC didn't fare too well at the betting window, in yesterday's egames. Auburn lost to Northwestern while Georgia nearly lost outright against Cincy. Then, Alabama failed to cover against the Irish. That may have some scratching their heads about why the SEC team is getting so much respect here. However, I'm projecting a double-digit win and believe that the Aggies could easily be favored by more. While the Tar Heels were certainly impressive in beating up on Miami, they also lost against Virginia, Florida State and Notre Dame. Texas A&M has just one loss all season and that came at Alabama. Since then, the Aggies have won seven straight, starting with Florida, all against SEC opposition. Their last six wins have ALL come by double-digits. Despite facing an SEC schedule, the Aggies allowed just 21.1 ppg compared to the Tar Heels' 28.4 ppg against an ACC schedule, one which didn't include a game against Clemson. Of course, it also needs to be mentioned that UNC has a number of players who chose to opt out of this game. Mack Brown said this of the missing players: "That's 4,000 yards worth of offense and our leading tackler on defense and two captains. This is new for me because I've never had a guy not play in a ball game ... " Texas A&M rolls. |
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01-02-21 | Ole Miss +10 v. Indiana | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
I'm playing on OLE MISS. The SEC didn't fare too well at the betting window, in yesterday's egames. Auburn lost to Northwestern while Georgia nearly lost outright against Cincy. Then, Alabama failed to cover against the Irish. While I backed the Big Ten team (Northwestern) in yesterday's Big Ten vs. SEC showdown, I feel that its the SEC team which is providing us with excellent value in this one. The Hoosiers are 0-5 their last five bowl games. During that span, the Rebels are 11-2 in bowl games. The Rebels do have some issues as they're dealing with some injuries and covid-opt outs. Thats been reflected in the line though as Indiana is being asked to win by double-digits. Thats asking too much, in my opinion. Note that three of their seven games were decided by single-digits. The Hoosiers may be saying all the right things but they're still disappointed about not getting to play yesterday. The Rebels can score with the best of them. They scored 54, 59, 31 and 48 points, in their final four games. While Indiana averages 30 ppg, Ole Miss averages more than 40. Look for the Rebels to come "ready to play" as they give the Hoosiers a much tougher challenge than many will be expecting. |
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01-01-21 | Ohio State +8.5 v. Clemson | Top | 49-28 | Win | 100 | 271 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on OHIO STATE. One can argue that the Buckeyes didn't deserve to be here, due to eligibilty reasons. However, there's no arguing the fact that they have the talent to be here. I like the way that the Buckeyes enter this one. The world against them - at least they can make a case for feeling that way - and off a non-cover, comeback win in the Big Ten championship game. All that sets them up well for this one; I like how they rallied to come back from a 10-6 halftime deficit to win 22-10. The comeback provides momentum and confidence, as does the ability to win a close game. The non-cover creates some additional line value, as this line could easily be less than a touchdown. QB Fields has had time for his thumb to recover and now he'll have one of his favorite receivers back, as Chris Olave missed the Northwestern game. Last year's game could have easily gone either way. The Buckeyes were up 16-0 but lost 29-23. Lawrence threw the game-winning TD with less than two minutes to go. Again, the Buckeyes were right there last year. They've been waiting and hoping for this rematch and I expect them to again give the Tigers all they can handle. Fields had this to say: "It's pretty self-explanatory that game hurt us a lot last year. So that has kind of been our whole motivation this offseason. Just getting the chance to play those guys again is a great opportunity ... " Ohio State's offensive lineman Wyatt Davis added: "It's everybody. I mean, we had a whole winter offseason program dedicated to this game. Clearly what we've seen and I'm sure all of you have seen this, we're going into this game not respected at all so that has a lot of motivations as well." Don't be surprised when this one comes down to the wire once again, the revenge-minded Buckeyes with an excellent shot at the outright win. |
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12-31-20 | Ball State +10 v. San Jose State | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 20 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on BALL STATE. While I respect San Jose State, I don't believe it should be laying double-digits against an undervalued Ball State team. I don't think the Cardinals are being given nearly enough respect or enough credit for beating Buffalo. Keep in mind that the Bulls had been crushing every team they faced all season. That was a very good Buffalo team and Ball State won by double-digits. That victory was arguably more impressive than anything that the Spartans did. That's six straight wins. The Cards only loss was in their first game and that was by just seven points. San Jose State does deserve credit but also benefitted from a down year in the Mountain West. Keep in mind that the Spartans are still just 2-10 SU their last 12 against teams with a winning record. In what should be a close one, I'm grabbing the points. |
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12-31-20 | Mississippi State +1.5 v. Tulsa | 28-26 | Win | 100 | 18 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MISS. STATE. If one just looks at the records, Tulsa should be a bigger favorite. However, as Tulsa's TieNeal Martin had to say: "Records can be a little bit deceiving. When I look at Miss. State, I see a crazy talented team that has all the pieces ..." It should be noted that Tulsa will be without linebacker Zaven Collins (Nagurski Trophy winner) as he opted out. The Bulldogs have taken on the likes of Alabama and Georgia, not to mention teams like Texas A&M, Kentucky, LSU and Arkansas, Auburn and Ole Miss. They closed out the season with a momentum-building 51-32 beating of Missouri. Tulsa, on the other hand, comes off a loss to Cincinnati. Note that the Hurricane are 4-8 ATS the past 12 times that they were off a conference loss. While I'll grab the points, I expect the Bulldogs to win this one outirght, improving to 5-1 ATS their last six, when the line ranged from -3 to +3. |
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12-29-20 | Colorado v. Texas -7 | 23-55 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TEXAS. I'm projecting a double-digit win for the Longhorns in this one. Note that every Texas victory came by at least seven points this season, with the exception of a 4-point win over WVU. The Longhorns bring momentum into the game, having won four of their past five. They crushed K-State 69-31 last time out. The Buffaloes can't say the same. They lost 38-21 to Utah last time out, snapping a winning streak. The loss was costly. Not only did it cost the Buffs any chance at the Pac-12 South title, they also suffered numerous injuries including one to linebacker Nate Landman. His loss, and others, will hurt them here. The Longhorns are a perfect 6-0 SU the past six times that they were favored in the -3.5 to -10 range. I expect Ehlinger and co. to improve on those stats, picking up the cover along the way. |
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12-29-20 | Oklahoma State -1 v. Miami-FL | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
I'm playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. Both these teams have mostly beaten the teams that they were supposed to beat. Both have similar records and both have similar numbers in that they've outscored opposing teams by roughly the same amount. (Miami outscored teams by 8 ppg while OSU outscored opposing teams by 7.1 ppg.) I like the way that the Cowboys come into the game a lot more though. After dropping two of three, they responded by thrashing Baylor (42-3) last time out. Conversely, Miami got crushed in its last game. The Canes were hammered 62-26 by UNC. Yes, they're saying all the right things about being motivated to bounce back - I'm sure that they want to - but that game exposed some vulnerabilities. It also cost them a spot in a major bowl which is a difficult pill to swallow and which will make "getting up" for this one that much more difficult. While they may be closer to home, the Canes are still 0-5 SU their last five on a 'neutral' field. Even without Hubbard, OSU can still pound the ball and control the clock. Expect the Cowboys to win their fourth bowl game in the past five years.  |
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12-26-20 | Western Kentucky +4.5 v. Georgia State | Top | 21-39 | Loss | -110 | 169 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on WESTERN KENTUCKY in the Lending Tree Bowl. The Panthers got the better of the Hilltoppers when these teams met in a bowl game in 2017. Three years later, I expect the Hilltoppers to settle the score. While the Panthers have the edge on offense, the Hilltoppers have been much better on defense. I like the momentum that WKU brings into this game; the Hilltoppers have won three straight, winning by a bigger margin each time out. They've only got one loss by more than four points in the past two months and that came at BYU, which was undefeated at the time. The Panthers have been involved in five games decided by seven or fewer points. Likewise, the Hilltoppers have seen five of their games decided by seven or less. The Hilltoppers are 5-1 ATS the past six times that they were underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range. The Hilltoppers are happy to be here and they're coming in hungry. While I like the outright win, in what should be a close one, I'm grabbing the points. |
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12-23-20 | Georgia Southern v. Louisiana Tech +7 | 38-3 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
I'm playing on LA Tech. This line has climbed from its opener and I believe we're now getting excellent value with the underdog. Georgia Southern has lost three of its last four games. The Eagles have won only once, by more than seven points, in their last eight games. Playing fairly close to home, the Bulldogs are going to be fired up. Prior to losing at TCU, the Bulldogs were off wins against North Texas and UAB. The Bulldogs have dominated Sun Belt teams over the years, going a perfect 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS. In what could be a close one, I'm grabbing the points. |
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12-21-20 | North Texas v. Appalachian State -19.5 | 28-56 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show | |
I'm playing on APPLACHIAN STATE. While this line may initially appear high, I believe that it could easily be even bigger. The Mountaineers, 5-0 in bowl games, are much stronger on the defensive side of the ball. While both offenses can score, North Texas allows a whopping 41.3 ppg compared to the Mountaineers' 19.3 ppg. The Mountaineers have thrived with eight day's rest in between games the past couple of seasons, going 3-0 when in that situation. I believe that they're going to come in with a chip on their shoulder. North Texas isn't immune to getting blown out having lost 49-21 vs. Charlotte and 49-17 at UTSA, just two of this season's four double-digit losses. The Mountaineers have six double-digit wins this season and four by 21 or more. I say this will be #5. |
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12-19-20 | Tulsa v. Cincinnati -14 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -106 | 101 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Bearcats have had a great season and I expect them to keep on rolling Saturday. With the exception of a 3-point win against UCF, Cincy beat every other opponent by a minimum of 14 points. It should be noted that that the game against UCF was on the road. This game, however, will be played at Nippert Stadium. The last three teams (ECU, Houston and Memphis) that have visited here have lost by scores of 55-17, 38-10 and 49-10. Going back further finds the Bearcats at 18-0 SU and 12-6 ATS their last 18 at home. While Tulsa allows 19.9 ppg, Cincy allows just 15 ppg. On the other side of the ball, the Bearcats' advantage is even bigger. Tulsa averages 27.7 ppg. Cincinnati averages 40.9. While I expect Tulsa to have trouble scoring, no team has kept Cincy to less than 36 points for more than two months. Bearcats roll. |
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12-19-20 | Boise State -6 v. San Jose State | 20-34 | Loss | -111 | 101 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm playing BOISE STATE on the money-line. Lose this game and the Spartans have still had a great season. Thats not the case for the Broncos. This will be the Broncos' fifth trip to the MWC title game in the past seven seasons, their fourth straight. They won the title in 2014, 2017 and 2019. Anything less than a victory here will be considered failure. As Boise receiver Khalil Shakir noted: "We haven’t done anything yet. Nothing has been accomplished." Remember, San Jose State went just 3-21 in 2017 and 2018. Last season, the Spartans were 5-7. So, a 3-year record of 8-28, before this season. Again, they can hold their heads high even with a loss here. Despite getting hammered by BYU, a team San Jose State didn't have to face, the Broncos still score an average of 36.2 points per game, as compared to the Spartans' 30.3 ppg. The Spartans are 6-16 SU their last 22 as underdogs. During that span, the Broncos are 24-4 SU as favorites. Going back further finds Boise at 45-9 SU when listed as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 range. All things considered, I feel that this line could easily be much higher. Broncos win. |
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12-18-20 | UAB +5 v. Marshall | 22-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UAB. These teams each have one CUSA championship in their history. UAB won by two points (27-25 over MTSU) two years ago while Marshall won by three points (26-23 over LA Tech) in 2014. Another close one won't surprise this evening, which makes getting more than a field goal very attractive. Keep in mind that Marshall hasn't won a game in more than a month. The Herd have only played one game during that span and they lost 20-0 against Rice. Their QB threw five INTs and they couldn't even manage 250 total yards. Yes, they're better than that and they'll be determined to prove that. However, the situation is far from ideal for them. Note that UAB won at Rice to get here, beating the same Owls that blanked Marshall. That game was a 21-16 final marking UAB's third straight decided by five or less. In fact, the Blazers have only lost by more than four points once all season and that was way back in September, at Miami. Grab the points. |
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12-12-20 | San Diego State +17.5 v. BYU | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 27 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SDSU. This is a very tough spot for BYU, in my opinion. As you're probably aware, the Cougars elected to add a game to their schedule last week. They flew thousands of miles to go and squander their unbeaten record on a heart-breaking loss. While this is an excellent BYU team, that will be very tough to bounce back from. Keep in mind that the Cougars are being asked to lay a very big number here and that the Aztecs are a stingy team which allows a mere 16.3 ppg. None of the Aztecs' three losses came by more than 11 points. The Aztecs beat BYU last season and they lost by just three the last time that they played here. I believe they're catching the Cougars at the right time and I expect AT LEAST another cover Saturday night. |
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12-12-20 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech -2 | Top | 15-33 | Win | 100 | 145 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on V-TECH. Virginia is rolling. Virginia Tech is reeling. No brainer on the visitors, right? Not in my opinion. A closer look at the Hokies' 4-game skid shows that the first was an unlikely 3-point loss against Liberty. That was followed by a 1-point loss against Miami. Each of those games absolutely could have gone either way. Getting stuck on the wrong side of both was tough to take though and the Hokies delivered a dud at Pittsburgh. Not a great effort but understandable, all the same. That was followed by a loss against Clemson. So, there's no shame in that. In other words, I'm not ready to write the Hokies off due their current slide. Coach Fuente summed it up by saying: " ... we've lost two heartbreakers then didn't play very well on the road and came home against the No. 3 team in the country and right in the middle of the game had some of the weirdest events I've ever seen occur. There's a little bit of context .... The bottom line is that I love what we are teaching, what they are retaining and where we are going." Beating their bitter instate rival won't get them a winning record but it will sure go a long way in getting rid of the bad taste in their mouths. With a bowl game lookling unlikely, this game is even more important. The Cavs haven't played a road game since way back on 10/24, when they lost by five, at Miami. In fact, a closer look shows that Virginia is 0-3 on the road this season, getting outscored by a combined score of 100-60. Speaking of road woes, the Cavs haven't won here since 1998. I expect a highly motivated V-Tech team to deliver its very best effort, continuing its homefield dominance in this series while covering the small number along the way.  |
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12-05-20 | Indiana v. Wisconsin -12.5 | 14-6 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WISCONSIN. The Hoosiers have had a nice season but I expect the Badgers to bring them back down to earth on Saturday afternoon. While Indiana averages a healthy 32.8 ppg, Wisconsin averages even more at 33.7 ppg. However, its on the other side of the ball where the Badgers really have the advantage. The Hoosiers allow 21.7 ppg. Wisconsin allows a mere 11.7 ppg. Of course, it doesn't help matters that Indiana is without star QB Michael Penix Jr, the biggest of several injuries. The Badgers are a profitable 36-21 ATS over the years, when playing with two week's worth of rest in between games. Their last five games (all wins) against Indiana have had scores of 45-17, 51-3, 62-14, 59-7 and 83-20. Lay the points and expect another blowout. |
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12-05-20 | Arkansas v. Missouri -2.5 | 48-50 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MISSOURI. While the Razorbacks are off b2b losses, the Tigers are off b2b wins. Last time out, they won 41-0. That type of dominating effort will provide plenty of momentum and confidence coming into this afternoon's game. The Razorbacks are just 1-12 on the road the past 2+ seasons, going 5-8 at the betting window. During that span, the Tigers are 12-5 SU and 11-5-1 ATS at home. The only team to beat them here this season was Alabama. Note that Arkansas is just 1-13 SU its past 14 The Tigers have only been favored twice this season and they won and covered both times. Lay the small number. |
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12-04-20 | UL-Lafayette v. Appalachian State -2.5 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on APP STATE. This is a big game between two good teams. While the Cajuns have the higher ranking, I believe that the Mountaineers are favored for good reason. After losing to Coastal Carolina, the Mountaineers didn't hang their heads. They went out and hammered Troy. Now, they get a chance to redeem themselves by beating a ranked team. I expect them to make the most of the opportunity. The Mountaineers have dominated this series in recent seasons. I believe that the Mountaineers have the better defense and that will ultimately lead to them contininuing their series dominance. Coastal Carolina was the only team to score more than 21 points against them. Each of the past five, besides Coastal Carolina, has scored 17 or less. While the Cajuns may get more than that, they won't get enough. Lay the small number. |
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12-03-20 | Air Force v. Utah State +12.5 | Top | 35-7 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH STATE. I won with the Aggies in their last game, a 41-27 win over New Mexico. That was a huge win for them, as it was their first of the season. Now, with that monkey off their back, I expect the Aggies to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. With last week's win, Utah State is now 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS its past 15 home games. During that span, Air Force is just 5-8 SU on the road. In this season's lone road game, the Falcons managed only six points, a 17-6 loss at SJ State. While the Falcons did beat up on New Mexico last time out, that was awhile ago now; they haven't been playing much, due to covid cancellations. I expect that to work against them here, as the suddenly confident Aggies are coming "ready to play." Grab the points. |
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11-28-20 | Kent State v. Buffalo -7 | 41-70 | Win | 100 | 75 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BUFFALO. This is a huge game in the MAC, as both the Golden Flashes and the Bulls are undefeated. While both teams can put up points, Buffalo is far better defensively. While Kent State is 4-11 its last 15 on the road, the Bulls rarely lose at home. During that span, they're 11-2 at home They've gone a highly lucrative 10-3 ATS in those games, too. In addition to needing the win to remain undefeated, the Bulls have a score to settle. Last year, they blew a 24-6 fourth quarter lead and lost 30-27 to these same Golden Flashes. They haven't lost since and all six of their wins have been by double-digits. Buffalo head coach Lance Leipold had this to say: "I think everyone knows about the loss last year. It's part of our film watching. Finishing, playing four quarters, being alert, special teams, sustaining momentum, all those things are constantly talked about. But, to sit there and dwell on it, it's not going to make it. We've acknowledged it, and I think that the guys that were in the game, they remember it and want to make sure we don't have any repeat performances." Expect the Bulls to keep the pedal to metal the entire way in this one, en route to their seventh straight double-digit win. |
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11-27-20 | Oregon -13 v. Oregon State | Top | 38-41 | Loss | -110 | 109 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on OREGON. They no longer officially call this game the "Civil War." That title was dropped several months ago. There's still no love lost between the two teams though and there's still a big class difference between them. Oregon is better on both sides of the ball. I like that the Ducks were tested by UCLA last week and how they responded and came through with a victory. Off that "close call," I believe they'll follow it up with a blowout win. The Ducks, who already covered at Washington State, are 6-2 ATS the past 2+ seasons, as road favorites. Their last visit here, almost exactly two years ago, saw Oregon, which was laying 18 points, win by 40, a 55-15 destruction. Including that result, the Beavers are just 4-9-1 ATS their last 14 home games, 0-3 ATS when listed as home underdogs in the 10.5 to 14 range. Oregon coach Mario Cristobal said this of last week's win: "We were a little bit out of sync, and like we told those guys, ‘Look, when you win, you don’t apologize for winning, you don’t get down for winning, you just recognize where you got to get better.' And we weren’t at our very best, and we know that we have to improve certain things." Expect the Ducks to "get better" and for them to deliver their biggest blowout of the season, thus far. |
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11-27-20 | UMass +40 v. Liberty | 0-45 | Loss | -123 | 102 h 41 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UMASS. The Flames are off their first loss of the season. Now, they step down in class to take on a weaker team. Many will expect a blowout. Certainly, Liberty is the much stronger team. However, winning big and winning by more than five touchdowns are two entirely different matters. Losing that first game is tough to bounce back from, when that first loss comes this late in the season. That's particularly the case when the loss was by only one point, which was the case. The players are still thinking about "what might have been." Focusing on lowly UMass will be tough. The Minutemen have already played some tough teams (Marshall) and all of their games have come on the road. None of their losses were by more than 41. They're 4-2 ATS the last six times that they were underdogs of 31 or more. Only one of Liberty's seven wins came by more than 33. I'm grabbing the points. |
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11-26-20 | New Mexico v. Utah State +5.5 | 27-41 | Win | 100 | 80 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UTAH STATE. Not exactly the best matchup, as both teams are 0-4. That doesn't mean we can't find ourselves excellent value though. Utah State isn't used to starting 0-4. It hasn't done so since 2007. The Aggies are going to be extremely motivated to get a win for their new coach. Last week's postponed game wasn't what they wanted, obviously, but may well benefit them this week. New Mexico didn't score a single point last game, getting blanked 28-0. Yet, the Lobos find themselves laying points on the road. Note that the Lobos are 4-10 ATS over the years, when listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. The Aggies are still 39-13 SU their last 52 home games. They've beaten the Lobos five of seven times since joining the MWC. They won at Albuquerque last year and they crushed the Lobos 61-19 here at Logan in 2018. Grab the points. |
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11-21-20 | USC -2.5 v. Utah | 33-17 | Win | 100 | 135 h 52 m | Show | |
I'm playing on USC. The Trojans have failed to cover in each of their first two games, nearly getting upset in each. However, in both cases, they found a way to win. Those type of wins build character and momentum. Having gotten a couple of close calls out of the way, I expect the talented Trojans to put it all together in this one. They're facing a Utah team which lost a lot of players from last season and which will be playing its first game of the season. Not playing is hard enough but all the added stress related to the virus situation has to be hard on the Utes. USC won by seven when these teams met last season. Given the situation, I expect an even bigger margin of victory in this one. |
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11-21-20 | Arizona v. Washington -10.5 | 27-44 | Win | 100 | 107 h 5 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. This is going to prove a tough spot for the Wildcats. They left it all on the field last week and nearly upset USC. However, they fell short in the end. Those type of losses are deflating. Now, they're on the road against what will be a hungry Husky team. Making matters worse, the Cats are playing their first road game of the "pandemic era" and they're going to be dealing with some nasty Pacific Northwest weather. Never very good on the road, the Cats will also be dealing with a very capable Washington defense. The Huskies didn't play great in their first game under their new coach, but still found a way to beat OSU by six. A game under their belts and with the positive momentum that comes from winning, I expect them to follow it up with a big effort here. The Huskies won 51-27 last year and they won 49-3 the last time that the teams played here in Seattle. Lay the points and expect Washington to pull away for another double-digit win.  |
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11-21-20 | Cincinnati v. Central Florida +6 | Top | 36-33 | Win | 100 | 93 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on UCF. The Bearcats are having a great season and won't be easy to beat. However, I believe that the Knights are peaking at the right time and feel that they have the offense to do so. Indeed, UCF leads the nation with 619 yards and 44 points per game. The UCF offensive line has been playing great and will be the first team this season capable of handling the physicality of Cincy's defensive front. UCF took a bit to get going, understandable with all the pandemic stuff going on. The Knights are firing on all cylinders now though. UCF tackle Ed Collins noted: "The bye week after the Tulsa loss, we came together as a unit pretty good ..." Last year's game at Cincy was decided by just three points. The Knights won the previous three meetings, all by double-digits. Grab the points. |
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11-21-20 | Appalachian State +6 v. Coastal Carolina | 23-34 | Loss | -115 | 99 h 31 m | Show | |
I'm playing on APPALACHIAN STATE. The Chanticleers are one of the biggest stories of the season. So far. They deserve all the credit they're getting. However, with all that hype comes inflated lines. In this case, they're laying a pretty big number against a really good Appalachian State team. I believe that's asking too much. Coastal Carolina could have some rust, after last week's game was postponed due to Covid-related issues. While Coastal Carolina is undefeated, the Mountaineers are 7-1 and have won five straight. While their QB is day-to-day, the Mountaineers have a highly capable senior backup, Jacob Huesman. This season's Mountaineers have been winning but not covering, as favorites. When listed as underdogs, they're a perfect 4-0 ATS the past 2+ seasons. They've allowed 17 or fewer points in four straight games. No opponent has scored more than 21 against them all season. Expect them to give the Chanticleers all they can handle with a great shot at the outright upset. |
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