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|MLB | Jul 29, 2014
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
|Los Angeles Dodgers
-145 at BMAKER
This is a 1* Free Play on the LA Dodgers.
I like the home side to keep the momentum rolling tonight and believe it is well worth the price of admission in this spot. The visiting Braves will start Aaron Harang (9-6, 3.31 ERA); the right-hander is having a career year but has been merely average against the Dodgers with a 4-6 record to go with a 4.26 ERA in 11 lifetime starts. LA counters with Josh Beckett (6-5, 2.52 ERA) who is looking to bounce back off one of his shorter outings of the season, allowing four runs in 3 2/3 innings in Tuesday’s 12-7 loss to the Pirates. While he hasn’t faced them in a few years, it’s still significant to note that Beckett is 6-0 with a 0.38 ERA in his last seven starts against the Braves. The Dodgers just swept a very good Giants team on the road thanks in large part to slugger Hanley Ramirez, who was 6 for 13 with three RBIs; also note that Adrian Gonzalez was 5 for 13 with three RBIs, while Yasiel Puig was 5 for 14 with three triples, the Dodgers would ultimately outscore the Giants 17-4. We saw in the playoffs last year that the Dodgers were a tough matchup for the Braves and should once again prove to be just as difficult here as the team is red hot; conversely, the Braves come into this series a little banged up. Keep in mind the Dodgers are 7-4 in games after a day off. Consider LA.
|MLB | Jul 29, 2014
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres
|San Diego Padres
-106 at 5DIMES
Free Pick on San Diego Padres -
The Padres are showing great value at basically a pickem at home against the Cardinals. San Diego will be motivated to get a W after getting swept in Atlanta over the weekend. I like their chances given the Padres will be sending out Tyson Ross, who has a 1.89 ERA and 0.943 WHIP over 11 home starts and comes in with a red-hot 0.90 ERA and 1.000 WHIP over his last 3. The Cardinals will counter with Lance Lynn, who has an average 3.53 ERA and 1.392 WHIP over 9 road starts and a 5.73 ERA and 1.818 WHIP over 2 career starts against San Diego.
Padres are 19-8 against the money line in home games after scoring 3 runs or less 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons, while the Cardinals are just 4-14 in their last 18 road games following a day off.
There’s also a solid system in play based on the results of both teams in their last game. Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 after a loss by 2 runs or less against opponent after scoring 1 run or less are 62-31 over the last 5 seasons. That’s a 67% system in favor of the Padres. Take San Diego!
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