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NCAA-F  |  Oct 26, 2014
Nevada vs. Hawaii
Hawaii
+4½-112
  at  PINNACLE
in 21m

FREE CFB play Saturday

Analysis coming!

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NFL  |  Oct 26, 2014
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals
+1-102
  at  PINNACLE
in 13h

Free Pick for Sunday October 26

Cincinnati +1

The Bengals are up against it right now. They have not won a game since their 3-0 start and this one is huge with the division leading Ravens coming to town. Cincy beat Baltimore in week 1 and I think they can do it again.

They are nearly automatic at home. The game opened with them as the favourite and now has flipped which makes it even better value. Both of these teams are banged up but the Bengals get it done in an emotional fight.

Good Luck, Razor Ray.

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NFL  |  Oct 26, 2014
Oakland Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns
Oakland Raiders
+7-120
  at  BOVADA
in 16h

Free Pick on Oakland Raiders +

There’s definitely some value on Oakland in this matchup. Prior to the season the Browns were expected to be a 4.5-point favorite. Now we see them laying a touchdown following an ugly 6-24 loss at Jacksonville last week. Sure the Browns whooped up on the Steelers a couple weeks back, but their other two wins have come by a combined 3 points and one of those they had to rally from a 25-point deficit. Cleveland is a lot closer to a 1-5 team than what most people think and it’s a big reason why I’m taking this awful Oakland team getting a touchdown.

The Raiders have shown some life since returning from their Week 5 bye, which also was when they fired head coach Dennis Allen and promoted Tony Sporano to interim head coach. They gave the Chargers all they could handle in a 28-31 loss in Week 6 and this past Sunday lost by a final of just 13-24 to the now 5-1 Cardinals.

One of the big reasons why I like the Raiders to at least keep this one close enough to cover, is the Browns have not been good defensively. Which is a surprise, considering most thought that would be their strength this season. Cleveland comes in ranked 17th against the pass (241.5 ypg) and are dead last against the run (155.5 ypg). Even though Oakland is dead last in rushing (69.3 ypg), there’s reason to be optimistic that they will have some success on the ground against Cleveland. The Browns gave up 185 yards and 2 scores to Jacksonville last week, who even after that performance comes into this week ranked 30th in the league in rushing at 86.0 ypg.

I also have some major concerns with the Cleveland offense, which looked lost in their first game without starting center Alex Mack. Brian Hoyer completed just 16 of 41 attempts for 215 yards and was sacked 3 times, while the Browns rushing attack accounted for just 69 yards on 30 attempts (2.3 yards/carry). Oakland isn’t a defensive juggernaut by any stretch of the imagination, but neither is Jacksonville. If the offense struggles like it did against the Jaguars, forget the cover, the Raiders could be looking at their first win of the season.

There’s a strong system in play favoring a fade of the Browns. Home favorites who are allowing 130+ rushing yards/game after a contest where they were outrushed by 75 or more yards are just 89-144 ATS since 1983. That’s a 72% system in favor of the Raiders. Take Oakland!

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NFL  |  Oct 26, 2014
Oakland Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns
Oakland Raiders
+7-105
  at  PINNACLE
in 16h

1* Free Play Oakland Raiders.

The 0-6 Oakland Raiders are in Cleveland to take on the 3-3 Browns. Both teams are coming off losses. After losing 31-28 to the Chargers two weeks ago, Oakland would fall 24-13 at home to the Cardinals last week. It’s the worst start to a season for the Raiders since losing their first 13 games in 1962: “This is as bad as you’re going to get through the first part of the season,” safety Charles Woodson remarked after the loss to Arizona. “We haven’t won a game. How much worse can it get than that, than not winning a game?” Rookie QB Derek Carr has looked brilliant at times and pretty ordinary in others so far this year, he had four TD’s in the loss to the Chargers, but finished just 16 for 28 for 173 yards vs. the tough Cardinals defense. Carr though catches a break this week in playing against a Cleveland Browns unit which ranks 23rd in opposing passing yards. After a big 31-10 win over rival Pittsburgh, the Browns looked disastrous in last week’s 24-6 setback at Jacksonville. Cleveland settled for field goals in two trips inside the 20-yard line and failed to convert on fourth-and-1 at the 24. The Browns entered the weekend with the third best rushing attack, but looked anemic, 30 attempts for 69 total yards in the end. Despite the Raiders being winless this year, I believe these teams are moving in opposite diretions right now. Oakland has performed well vs. two playoff bound teams over the last two weekends, Cleveland continues to do what it does best and that is to show a ton of inconsistency from game to game. I think “sprinkling a little” on the money line isn’t a bad idea here either; consider a second look at the visitors in this one.

AAA Sports

NFL  |  Oct 26, 2014
Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons
Detroit Lions
-3½-105
  at  PINNACLE
in 9h

NFL Free Play

 

Tony George Sports

 

Detroit -3.5 vs Atlanta  (9:30 EST Kickoff in London)

Maybe the Falcons can play better football in a different country.  Is Mike Smith still head coach?  Well there is your answer.  The Dirty Birds are a team who is in a total mis-match here.  The offensive line of Atlanta has as much to do with their demise as anything, as QB Ryan was sacked 5 times last week by the Ravens in a game they were only in at the coin flip, after that they were dominated again.  The Lions D-Line is the best in football and the Lions defense ranked #1 and despite all Ryans weapons, they do not have time for plays to develop and Atlanta cannot run the ball to save their life.  This is a team with no team chemistry and no identity. 

Detroit’s offense should have better numbers than they do,  but the defense is carrying them this season.  WR Johnson has practiced but is doubtful or at least not 100%,  but QB Stafford has numerous weapons at WR and a 1-2 punch at RB with Bush healthy again that should control this game from the opening bell.  The Falcons have dropped 4 straight games by double digits and this is the best defense they have seen.  I know the NFL many times is zig-zag week to week with numerous teams, but Atlanta after a quick start to the season has been consistently bad.  On a Neutral site this line should be 7 points, I like the value on the vastly better team who is in a dogfight for their division with a hot Green Bay team, and this is a winnable road game they need.

 

Free Pro Pick on Detroit

 

 

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Big 12 from Tony George

 

Texas  @ K State -10

Bill Snyder continues to baffle sports bettors in the role of an underdog (I took them against OU last Week), as his team off an upset win at Oklahoma and now travel home to face the Longhorns Saturday Night.  Kansas State is the surprise team of the Big 12 to outsiders this season, however as usual, I am not surprised, they have had as many Big 12 wins as any team in the Big 12 in the last 4 years and Snyder is one of the best coaches in football.  Have no illusions, K State is the better team here, and the Little Apple is always a tough venue for any team to play and win, just ask Auburn who barely escaped out of here on a Thursday Night in Week 3 of the season.  That said Kansas State faces an upstart Texas team this Saturday off a big win.

One thing I have noticed about Texas is that Charlie Strong has done a good job of coaching this team, and with QB Ash going down early this season, Tyrone Swoops stepped in and while it was a rough start, he has evolved into a good QB and the Texas defense is stepping up as well.  QB Swoopes in the last 2 weeks has thrown for 655 yards, and you can pass on K State.  Texas has 5 star players all over the field, their OL is healthy, and while this line while justified based on last weeks big win, bear in mind OU struggled to beat Texas in the Red River War and I honestly feel with the balance on offense and a hot QB right now, Texas hangs tough in this one.  K State is very dependent on QB Waters running the ball with success, Texas will find a way to slow him down.  K State wins in a tough one here.

Texas +10 in my Free Pro Pick

 

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NFL  |  Oct 26, 2014
Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans
Tennessee Titans
+3+102
  at  PINNACLE
in 13h

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Houston at Tennessee 1:00 ET

Titans (+) over Texans- I understand playing against a team where their quarterbacks is making first start, especially a rookie quarterback that wasn’t drafted until the sixth round (See Tom Brady), but, money that is flooding in on the Texans will provide great valve with the Titans when the air clears. Tennessee will be starting their fifth quarterback in the last three seasons and the team knows it must rally on the defensive side of the ball. The advantage here going to the home team as the Houston offense in nothing to brag about. Take TENNESSEE!

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NFL  |  Oct 26, 2014
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Baltimore Ravens
+1-111
  at  PINNACLE
in 13h

Take Baltimore (#267)

My clients and I cashed a winning Big Ticket bet supporting the Bengals in Week 1 on the road at Baltimore.  Cinci dominated that game early, but settled for five first half field goals.  After halftime, the Ravens scored 17 unanswered to take the lead.  But a 77 yard bomb from Andy Dalton to AJ Green in the final minutes allowed the Bengals to escape with a victory on Baltimore’s home field; their first road win over the Ravens since 2009.

But the Bengals team that we saw on opening day is not the same Bengals team that Marvin Lewis is fielding right now.  AJ Green has a bad toe, unable to suit up in their last two ballgames.  TE Tyler Eifert is out as well.  That duo combined for more than half of Cinci’s receiving yards in that Week 1 win.  Defensively, the Bengals have a cluster injury problem at linebacker.  All three LB starters were off the field by the second half of last week’s loss at Indy; none of them are sure things to suit up this week.  Throw in an impact injury to stud CB Leon Hall (questionable for Sunday), and you can understand why Cinci’s defense has struggled in recent weeks.

The Bengals have a ‘value’ problem as well as their injury concerns and Baltimore’s ‘same season divisional revenge’ concerns.  Cincinnati’s season long stats look just fine, outgaining their foes by 0.3 yards per play.  They’ve got a positive turnover differential, Dalton’s QB rating is at the highest of his career, and their pass defense numbers (opposing QB passer rating numbers) rank among the top five teams in the NFL.

But those full-season numbers are heavily influenced by the Bengals first three games of the season, all relatively well-played wins and covers.  Over their last three games, it’s been a very different story.  Cinci’s defense allowed more than 500 yards against Indy last week on the heels of allowing 80 points in their previous two games, a struggling unit.  And Cinci got shut out last week, the second time in the last three games that the offense couldn’t throw the football effectively.  Looking solely at Cinci’s 2014 numbers creates a somewhat misleading profile.

Baltimore has found their mojo since that Week 1 loss to the Bengals, winning five of their last six contests thanks to the emerge of a big play passing game that was largely absent last year but was on full display when they won the Super Bowl two years ago.  Joe Flacco is currently sporting the best QB rating of his career; averaging more than ten yards per attempt three times in the last four games.  RB Justin Forsett has seven 20+ yard rushing attempts for the year, making big plays out of the backfield.  And the Ravens defense has been rock solid, particularly in the red zone, allowing 21 points or less in every game since their opening day defeat against Cincinnati.  Right now, Baltimore is the better team, catching points.  Take the Ravens.

NFL  |  Oct 26, 2014
Oakland Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns
Oakland Raiders
+7-120
  at  BOVADA
in 16h

Play – Oakland Raiders. 

Edges – Raiders: 11-2 ATS as road dogs of 6 or more points a losing record off an NFC game; and 6-1 ATS with revenge off a double-digit home loss. Browns: 0-8 ATS versus opponents with revenge who scored 7 or fewer points last game.  With Oakland enjoying the  benefit from a late 4:25 ET kick off, and interim head coach Tony Sparano 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS as a road dog against opponents off a SU loss, we’ll grab the points.  We recommend a 1-unit play on Oakland.  Thank you and good luck as always.     

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NFL  |  Oct 26, 2014
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals
+1+105
  at  5DIMES
in 13h

 
The Free NFL System Club Play is on the Cincinnati Bengals. Game 268 at 1:00 eastern. The Bengals were shutout last week by the Colts and now return home to face a Hot Baltimore team that they beat on the road in week 1. Cincy will look to get back on track and home teams that scored 9 or less points and lost on the road by 21 or more are perfect to the spread since 1989 vs an opponent off a home win that scored 28 or more points. In Fact road teams that are off back to back wins by 15 or more points are 4-19 ats if the line is -3 to +2 and their opponent is off a loss. The Ravens are 1-14 ats on the road off a home win where they had 3 or more minutes in time of possession than their season average. The Bengals are 8-0 ats if they had a turnover margin of +2 or more. Look for the Bengals to get th win. On Sunday the NFC Game of the year is the lead play with 3 Never lost systems and Angles. In early action we have the 6* AFC Side with 5 Exclusive systems, a Dog with bite from a 24-3 system, th Sunday night Totals play with 16 Totals angles and more. NFL is ranked #1 on several prestigious leader boards. Get on now and put Power of this devastating data on your side as we end the week big. For the free play take the Cincinnati Bengals. RV