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I moved to Las Vegas to bet on sports as a full time professional in 1998, and I’ve been doing it successfully here in Sin City ever since.
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Take Iowa State (#582)
My clients and I have cashed three winning bets supporting Iowa State here in February, and there’s little reason to think that the betting markets have caught up with the streaking Cyclones! Here are some recent quotes, telling the story of Iowa State’s recent surge: 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six ballgames, the lone loss coming on the road in Austin by a single bucket.
Head coach Steve Prohm: “I think we have tough kids, that helps. You stay focused on the present, then you have a chance to continue to get better.”
Senior guard Naz Mitrou-Long: “It definitely feels awesome to be playing our best basketball of the season (down the stretch)….We just want to go 1-0. That’s been our motto the whole year. Win the day. It’s an awesome position to be in, but we’re not done.”
Point guard Monte Morris: “We’re still waiting for that night when everybody is on fire. I feel like it’s coming soon. It’s the best time to play basketball, going into March. I’m glad we’re peaking right now as opposed to early December.”
And the Cyclones will have particular focus for this game, facing a Baylor team that has beaten them five straight times since the start of the 2014-2015 season. All five of those Bears victories came by nine points or less – competitive games – including a one point loss, a two point loss and an OT loss for the Cyclones. At home, this veteran, senior laden squad is primed for some payback!
Baylor has been a consistent moneyloser, just 5-10 ATS since their 13-0 start earned them a #1 overall ranking and left them completely overvalued to the talent level on hand. Baylor’s only SU wins in February have come against Big 12 bottom feeders: Oklahoma & TCU, with the lone exception of a 54% shooting effort in a three point win at Oklahoma State. I’m not expecting the Bears to approach 54% shooting this afternoon…. Take Iowa State.
Take Michigan – Purdue OVER (#629-630)
The Wolverines are a dead nuts Over team when stepping up in class, against strong offensive foes. Why? Because Michigan’s offense is pretty darn efficient, but their defense is spotty at best! When the Wolverines faced the Boilermakers earlier this season, Purdue’s inside/outside balance gave the Wolverines fits as Purdue shot 53% from the floor in a 17 point win.
The UCLA game stands out as well; another game against a strong offensive foe in which the Wolverines defense was hopeless, right from the opening tip; a game where the Bruins scored 102 points, flying Over the total by 40.
The stats show it very clearly. The Wolverines rank #12 out of 14 Big 10 teams in defensive efficiency. They rank #327 in the country defending the three point line. They don’t force many turnovers either, leading to consistently poor defensive showings against the elite offensive teams. Purdue ranks among the Top 20 teams in the country in offensive efficiency, and I expect Purdue to approach or exceed their point total from the first meeting.
Michigan struggled offensively at Purdue: only seven made free throws, less than 38% shooting overall and just 24% shooting from three point range. But the Wolverines still had a strong assist-to-turnover ratio in that game, and the Wolverines offense is a completely different animal in Ann Arbor, where they have scored 76 points per game on 49% shooting for the full season. They’ve hung 90 on Indiana and 86 on Michigan State in recent games at Crisler Arena; primed for another offensive outburst here. Take the OVER.
Take Philadelphia (#505)
I could do this write-up in a single sentence: The Knicks have no business as -5.5 point favorites.
The Knicks have a grand total of ONE pointspread cover all year when laying more than 4.5 points, and that came back on November 9th against the worst team in the league (Brooklyn). The last time the Knicks won a game by more than five points at home came back on January 12th against the Bulls; when Chicago was in complete disarray. They are 2-7 SU at home since that win, losing SU to the likes of Phoenix, Denver and the LA Lakers during that span.
The Knicks lost to Philly in SU fashion as favorites in the first meeting between these two teams this year. They went into the All Star Break with a double digit loss and came out with another double digit loss. And there’s certainly not much positive chemistry floating around this locker room right now.
Derrick Rose, following their loss to open the second half: "It's a different offense. As a point guard, you're always in the corner and just got to play off reads and play that way. It's new for everybody here. I get all my points off random baskets. Unless you see it go to the post, all the other stuff is just random basketball."
Carmelo Anthony: “I think they were kind of planning on the trade deadline whether they were trying to make moves. I think that was one plan. Now they've got to get back to the drawing board and come up with another plan about the future of this team." Plain and simple – these are not the kinds of quotes I’m looking for out of my veteran leaders on a struggling team.
All the Sixers do is cover pointspreads, the single best ATS team in the NBA this year. Philadelphia is 0-3 ATS as favorites and just 1-3 ATS as huge underdogs of +14 or higher. In every other game, they’re 34-16 ATS, cashing at a 68% clip for the entire season in pointspread ranges like this one. Throw in a 4-0 ATS mark in their last four tries on the second night of back-2-backs and the case for the Sixers is perfectly clear. Take the 76ers.
Some ‘cappers need a detailed biography. Teddy doesn’t – a quick google search shows quite clearly how big of an impact this longtime Las Vegas professional has had in the sportsbetting world since moving to Vegas to become a full time bettor back in 1998. You can watch Teddy on Netflix during the week of the Super Bowl in the sportsbetting documentary ‘Life on the Line’. You can read about Teddy in the New York Times. You can read Teddy’s college basketball analysis on ESPN.com. Teddy talking NFL? Check out Bloomberg TV!! Teddy talking March Madness? How about on CBS! The list goes on and on. Teddy gets the national publicity because he’s earned it; delivering a career filled with very satisfied clients…..