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Atlanta started down 0-2 in this series against Washington, but the Hawks got back on track by winning two games on their home court. The home team is now 4-0 SU/ATS in this playoff series and 7-1 SU in all meetings this season. It is not a surprise since both squads have exhibited strong home/road dichotomies over the years. Atlanta will now head back to Washington for this pivotal Game 5, and we expect the Hawks to regress off their last two games. In their two games at home, the Hawks scored a total of 227 points on 46.9% (84-for-179) shooting from the field and 37.5% (21-for-56) shooting from three-point land. Compare those numbers to the ones they put up in Washington in the first two games, and you can see a difference. In the first two games, the Hawks scored a total of 208 points on 42.0% (66-for-157) shooting from the field and 24.4% (11-for-45) shooting from three-point land. Atlanta will revert back to their two performances in Washington, and that makes them quite vulnerable in Game 5.
Washington returns home off back-to-back losses, and since they are 32-11 SU on their strong home court, we expect a peak performance tonight. The Wizards played two poor games away, and it was just the tenth time this season that they lost two consecutive games. In the nine games following after back-to-back losses, Washington went 6-3 SU with their average win coming by +8.3 points per game. The Wizards’ offense averaged 112.7 points per game in those six wins. Overall, Washington is averaging 110.5 points per game on 48.1% shooting from the field and 40.1% shooting from three-point land at home. We’ll lay the points with Washington in Game 5 on Wednesday night.
9* Play WIZARDS (-).
Chicago won the first two games of this series in Boston, but the Bulls were terrible in their two home games. Chicago lost Game 3 by 17 points (104-87), and they lost Game 4 by 9 points (104-95). The Bulls looked to be in control of this series, but unfortunately for them, they lost point guard Rajon Rondo to a thumb injury. His absence was clearly evident in the Bulls last two games, but with this being their third game without him, we expect a much better team effort from Chicago tonight. Chicago’s offense was awful in their last two games as they only scored a total of 182 points on 40.6% (65-for-160) shooting from the field and 24.4% (11-for-45) shooting from three-point land. Prior to those two games, the Bulls had scored 106 points or more in six consecutive games, and in seven of their previous eight games overall.
Boston slogged thru the first two games at home in this series before snapping out of their funk and winning comfortably in Chicago. Now many may think the Celtics will continue their domination with a return home, but we expect some regression from Boston tonight. The Celtics’ offense scored 104 points in each game while shooting a combined 47% (79-for-168) from the field and 36.5% (27-for-74) from three-point land. Now Boston is in a negative situational spot while laying too many points into a desperate Chicago team that is primed to play much better basketball. The road team is a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS in this playoff series. We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take Chicago plus the points in Game 5 on Wednesday night.
10* Play BULLS (+).
Seattle was embarrassed 19-9 by Detroit last night, but we expect a strong bounce back by the Mariners on Wednesday night. Seattle will send James Paxton who is also due to bounce back after a loss at Oakland last week. It was a rare bad outing for the southpaw who still has an excellent 1.78 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in his four starts this season with a powerful 30/5 strikeout/walk ratio. Paxton projects to have a fantastic outing against Detroit’s lineup based on my numbers. He is slated to give up 2.3 earned runs with a solid 3.63 ERA and a strong 1.28 WHIP in this game. Paxton also projects to have a fantastic 8.0 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a terrific 3.2 strikeout/walk ratio against the Tigers tonight. Detroit’s lineup owns has a mediocre .658 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Paxton during his career.
Detroit will start Daniel Norris tonight who has a 3.71 ERA and a terrible 1.53 WHIP this season. My numbers project another poor outing for Norris against Seattle’s lineup. The southpaw projects to give up 2.6 earned runs with a weak 4.07 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in this game. Seattle’s lineup owns a terrific .348 batting average, and an excellent 1.027 OPS against Norris during his career. The Mariners’ offense is in fantastic current form as they have scored 59 total runs in their last ten games. Detroit's bullpen has been terrible this season with a 7.50 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. We’ll back Seattle with Paxton on the mound in this game on Wednesday night.
9* Play MARINERS (-).
Steve Merril is considered one of the best sports analysts in the nation. He credits his success to employing a variety of different handicapping techniques such as statistical analysis, trends and systems, and fundamentals such as matchups and emotion. By relying on numerous handicapping methods, Steve continues to beat the pointspread on a consistent basis in both college and pro football, basketball, baseball, and auto racing. Steve was the first person to ever win the prestigious $100,000 Insiders Handicapping Invitational and his unique knowledge and understanding of the gaming industry is what separates him from other handicappers. Steve has spent the past 20+ years studying the odds and probabilities associated with all forms of gambling such as poker, casino games, and even the stock market. Steve has transferred this unique knowledge and understanding of statistics and probabilities into the sports world, which has enabled him to win on a consistent basis. The most popular part of Steve Merril's award-winning selections is the fact he backs each game with a full detailed report and analysis. You get a strong selection, plus the reason why the play will win. This includes detailed statistical analysis and Steve's powerful team trends and super systems. You will learn while you earn with Steve Merril's daily selections as each report is packed full of detailed information. Join forces with the most knowledgeable gaming expert in the industry and have your most profitable season ever.