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Steve Merril Sports Picks

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Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Sep 21, 2014
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Carolina Panthers
Pittsburgh Steelers
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Play Type: Premium

Pittsburgh has not looked sharp in their first two games.  The Steelers needed a last-second field goal to beat Cleveland, and they followed that up with an ugly 26-6 loss at Baltimore last Thursday night.  The Steelers have had extra time to prepare for this game in Carolina, so we expect a much better effort.  We also need to note that both of those games came against divisional opponents for Pittsburgh, and those teams simply know their personnel and schemes much better than tonight’s out of conference opponent will.  Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger threw the ball 37 times in the last game, and that’s not a successful formula for the Steelers.  Pittsburgh has a good running game with Le’Veon Bell, and he will be a major test for a Panthers’ defense that has faced two poor rushing attacks so far this season.

Carolina is 2-0 thus far this season despite most pundits predicting a regression from the Panthers.  However, neither win by Carolina came in dominating fashion as they escaped Tampa Bay with a 20-14 win and last week they beat Detroit 24-7 in a misleading margin of victory.  The Panthers only led the Lions 7-6 with 2 minutes left to play in the third quarter before extending their lead late.  While Pittsburgh’s defense has some flaws, Carolina simply does not have an explosive offense to take advantage.  The Panthers are dealing with injury issues to their skill players, and it’s unclear who will actually play in this game.  Carolina’s defense has been stout, but they are facing a different style of offense tonight, and Pittsburgh’s physical ways are a bad match-up for the Panthers.  We’ll take the points with the Steelers on Sunday night.   

9* Play STEELERS (+).

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Sep 21, 2014
Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks
48 ov-108
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Play Type: Premium

Denver and Seattle will play once again after just meeting in the Super Bowl.  That game was a 43-8 route by the Seahawks, so this is an obvious revenge game for the Broncos.  Denver’s offense was stymied by Seattle in the Super Bowl, so the Broncos are out to make amends for that awful performance.  Denver’s offense has been superb in their two games this season as they’ve scored 55 total points.  The Broncos could easily have scored more points, but they’ve cruised in the second half of both games after winning the first half by a combined score of 45-17.  Denver will not go conservative in this game as their offense will give their full effort for all four quarters.  The Broncos’ offense also gets Wes Welker back on the field after he was suspended for the first two games.  Denver has their full compliment of skill players for this game, and with motivation, we expect a big offensive game from the Broncos.

Seattle’s offense is terrific, and the Seahawks will have one of the top scoring teams in the NFL at season’s end.  They’ve scored 57 points in their two games, averaging 28.5 points per game against defenses that allow 24.8 points per game.  Denver’s defense has yet to play well despite facing a pair of mediocre offenses that are only averaging 19.5 points per game on the season.  Seattle will move the ball up and down the field on the Broncos just like they did in the Super Bowl.  Seattle comes in off a road loss in San Diego, and the Seahawks’ offense has performed extremely well when returning home off a loss.  In three such instances over the last few years, Seattle’s offense has averaged 25.7 points per game.  We have a Denver offense highly motivated to prove their Super Bowl performance was a fluke, and an explosive Seattle offense playing at home off a loss.  That combination sets up well for a high-scoring game on Sunday afternoon. 

9* Play OVER the total.


Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Sep 21, 2014
Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Redskins
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Washington is a better team without RGIII at quarterback.  We saw that last week after he got injured and Kirk Cousins took over.  The Redskins dominated the hapless Jaguars and won 41-10 after Cousins completed 22 of his 33 passes for 250 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Washington’s offense also ran for 191 yards in that game, and with balance to the run and pass, the Redskins can move the ball consistently under Cousins.  Washington will face a poor Philadelphia defense that has allowed 44 points in their two games thus far.  These divisional opponents played in a pair of close games last season with Philadelphia squeaking out a 6-point win on the road and an 8-point win at home.  The Redskins were a dysfunctional team last year, so the close games against the Eagles bodes well for this year, especially since Washington looks improved in 2014.  

Philadelphia is 2-0, but they could very well be 0-2 on the season.  The Eagles fell way behind in both games; they trailed Jacksonville 17-0 and trailed Indianapolis 20-6.  Philadelphia showed some grit in coming back to win both games, but they can’t expect the comebacks to continue.  This is also a terrible situational and scheduling spot for the Philadelphia.  The Eagles are not only coming off the back-to-back come from behind wins, but they are also coming off a Monday night game in which they won SU as a road underdog.  Now the Eagles are facing a division opponent and laying a handful of points on a short week.  This game will come right down to the wire, so we’ll take Washington plus the points on Sunday afternoon.  

9* Play REDSKINS (+).


Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Sep 21, 2014
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
Baltimore Ravens
Play Type: Premium

Baltimore bounced back strong as expected last Thursday night as they dominated Pittsburgh in a 26-6 win.  The Ravens have had extra time to get ready for another divisional opponent, so we expect another big effort in this game.  Baltimore has had this game circled since losing 24-18 in Cleveland last November.  Prior to that loss, the Ravens had won the nine previous games against Cleveland by an average of 12.1 points per game.  Baltimore’s defense has been terrific in their two games this season, allowing just 14.5 points per game against opponents that average 20.8 points per game.  The Ravens’ defense is taking a major step-down in class as they’ll be facing skill players from the Browns that rank dead last in the NFL based upon fantasy football grading guidelines. 

Cleveland played way over their heads for the second consecutive week in their 26-24 win over the Saints on the last play of the game.  Had New Orleans punched the ball into the end zone from the 4-yard line with about 3 minutes left to play, Cleveland would have been down 8 points and most likely would have lost.  Cleveland has played in emotional draining, last-second games in the first two weeks.  The Browns lost in Pittsburgh 30-27 in the season opener after giving up the winning field goal as time expired.  Off those back-to-back high-scoring games, we expect major regression from Cleveland, especially since they are facing a much better defensive team.  The Browns took advantage of two poor defensive teams in Pittsburgh and New Orleans, but they’ll be hard-pressed in having much success against the stout Baltimore defense.  Baltimore is simply the superior team, so we’ll lay the short price with the Ravens on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play RAVENS (-).


Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Sep 21, 2014
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays
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Play Type: Premium

Toronto and New York will conclude their 4-game series on Sunday afternoon.  Masahiro Tanaka will return to the mound for the Yankees and face the Blue Jays who he made his Major League debut against earlier this season.  Tanaka is on a strict pitch count of no more than 75 pitches in this game.  The Yankees’ pitcher last started on July 8th so he has been off for awhile, and he doesn’t figure to have his best stuff.  Because of that, New York will have to turn to a mediocre bullpen to finish this game.  Toronto has hit right-handed starters well this season, scoring 4.5 runs per game against them.

The Blue Jays will start Drew Hutchison in this game.  Hutchison has won two straight starts against New York, giving up just 2 runs and six hits while striking out 16 batters in those games.  The Yankees’ lineup will be without Jacoby Ellsbury, and his absence leaves a big hole at the top of their batting order.  New York’s offense is in poor current form.  The Yankees have scored just 16 total runs over their last six games, and they will struggle against Hutchison in this game.  There’s some good value in taking Toronto on the run line in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play BLUE JAYS (+1.5 runline).



All Sports Sides (+12261)  1983-1633  L3616 55%

Basketball Picks (+9922)  979-812  L1791 55%

NBA Picks (+9013)  564-437  L1001 56%

MLB Money Lines (+5472)  601-450  L1051 57%

NCAA-B Sides (+2277)  338-291  L629 54%

Football Sides (+1725)  166-135  L301 55%

NCAA-F Picks (+1577)  117-93  L210 56%

NFL Sides (+1331)  31-16  L47 66%

NFLX Picks (+325)  31-25  L56 55%


Steve Merril is considered one of the best sports analysts in the nation. He credits his success to employing a variety of different handicapping techniques such as statistical analysis, trends and systems, and fundamentals such as matchups and emotion. By relying on numerous handicapping methods, Steve continues to beat the pointspread on a consistent basis in both college and pro football, basketball, baseball, and auto racing.

Steve was the first person to ever win the prestigious $100,000 Insiders Handicapping Invitational and his unique knowledge and understanding of the gaming industry is what separates him from other handicappers. Steve has spent the past 15 years studying the odds and probabilities associated with all forms of gambling such as poker, casino games, and even the stock market. Steve has transferred this unique knowledge and understanding of statistics and probabilities into the sports world, which has enabled him to win on a consistent basis.

The most popular part of Steve Merril's award-winning selections is the fact he backs each game with a full detailed report and analysis. You get a strong selection, plus the reason why the play will win. This includes detailed statistical analysis and Steve's powerful team trends and super systems.

You will learn while you earn with Steve Merril's daily selections as each report is packed full of detailed information. Join forces with the most knowledgeable gaming expert in the industry and have your most profitable season ever.