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Philadelphia and St. Louis have split the first two games in this series. The Cardinals won easily 10-3, but then lost a close 1-0 game last night. Look for a strong bounce back win from the home team tonight. The Phillies will send Adam Morgan to the mound and my numbers project a poor outing for Morgan against St. Louis’ lineup. Morgan projects to give up 2.9 earned runs with a 4.73 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in this game. Morgan is also slated to have a lowly 5.9 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a poor 1.9 strikeout/walk ratio in this game. He has little support on the backend as the Phillies' bullpen has an ugly 5.66 ERA and 1.48 WHIP on the road this season. Philadelphia's 6-1 record during their past seven games is extremely misleading as their offense has been poor, averaging just 2.9 runs per game with a weak .217 team batting average.
St. Louis will start Mike Leake who projects to have a fantastic outing against Philadelphia’s lineup based on my numbers. Leake is slated to give up just 2.2 earned runs with a solid 3.20 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in this game. My numbers also project Leake to have a strong 3.3 strikeout/walk ratio this evening. He is backed by a solid bullpen that sports a strong 2.94 ERA and 1.16 WHIP at home this season. We’ll lay the price with St. Louis and Leake in this game on Wednesday night.
9* Play CARDINALS (-) (action).
Atlanta hung tough in Game 1 before eventually losing 104-93. The Hawks actually played a terrible game on both ends of the court, but we expect a strong bounce back performance in Game 2 tonight. Atlanta shot just 37.9% (33-87) from the field and 32.4% (11-34) from three-point land. Kyle Korver and Jeff Teague combined for just 11 points with 6 of those points coming from the free throw line. The duo shot just 20% (2-10) from the field, including 20% (1-5) from three-point land. Korver and Teague combine to average 26.2 points per game, so we expect both players to perform much better tonight. Atlanta has an elite defense as they rank 2nd in efficiency (98.8). The Hawks were the #1 defense in the NBA over the final four months of the season (51 games) while holding opponents to just 97.6 points per 100 possessions. We expect a strong performance tonight after they executed poorly on the defensive end in their Game 1 loss on Monday night.
Cleveland’s starters played terrific basketball in Game 1. The starting five combined to score 83 of their 104 total points. Four of the five starters scored 12 points or more after shooting 48% (12-25) from three-point land. Overall, the Cavaliers shot 44.6% (37-83) from the field and 48.4% (15-31) from three-point land. Cleveland had 10 total players score while seven players scored 8 points or more. Despite losing by double digits, the Hawks out-scored the Cavaliers 36-32 inside the paint. Atlanta also out-rebounded Cleveland 48-44, including a 15-10 edge on the offensive glass. We expect a strong bounce back performance by Atlanta, so we’ll take the Hawks plus the points in Game 2 on Wednesday night.
10* Play HAWKS (+).
Steve Merril is considered one of the best sports analysts in the nation. He credits his success to employing a variety of different handicapping techniques such as statistical analysis, trends and systems, and fundamentals such as matchups and emotion. By relying on numerous handicapping methods, Steve continues to beat the pointspread on a consistent basis in both college and pro football, basketball, baseball, and auto racing. Steve was the first person to ever win the prestigious $100,000 Insiders Handicapping Invitational and his unique knowledge and understanding of the gaming industry is what separates him from other handicappers. Steve has spent the past 15 years studying the odds and probabilities associated with all forms of gambling such as poker, casino games, and even the stock market. Steve has transferred this unique knowledge and understanding of statistics and probabilities into the sports world, which has enabled him to win on a consistent basis. The most popular part of Steve Merril's award-winning selections is the fact he backs each game with a full detailed report and analysis. You get a strong selection, plus the reason why the play will win. This includes detailed statistical analysis and Steve's powerful team trends and super systems. You will learn while you earn with Steve Merril's daily selections as each report is packed full of detailed information. Join forces with the most knowledgeable gaming expert in the industry and have your most profitable season ever.