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Matt Fargo Sports Picks

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Matt Fargo Matt Fargo
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Apr 25, 2015
Washington Capitals vs NY Islanders
NY Islanders
-124 at betonline
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

Three teams can clinch their series on Saturday including two home teams, Chicago and Calgary. The lone home team with their backs against the wall are the Islanders which are down 3-2 following consecutive losses to Washington after grabbing a 2-1 series lead. There is no need for any more motivation for the Islanders but we can expect one of the best home ice edges you will ever see as this is very possible the final game at Nassau Coliseum which has played host to the Islanders since their inaugural season in 1972-73. The Islanders need to find a way to get their power play going after going 0 for 12 in the series, one reason they've been held to four goals over the last three games. They finished fourth in the NHL with 2.99 gpg and their 133 goals scored at home were the third most in the NHL. Look for greater offensive output today. The Islanders lost their home game in this series in overtime despite outshooting Washington 37-30 and going 0-4 on the power play was a huge part of it. Despite that loss, the home team has won seven of the nine meetings this season and that continues today which sends this series back to Washington for a decisive Game Seven. 10* (6) New York Islanders

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Apr 25, 2015
Memphis Grizzlies vs Portland Trailblazers
Portland Trailblazers
-2½ -109 at pinnacle
Lost
$109.0
Play Type: Top Premium

It has been an unprecedented postseason thus far and teams covering the spread and been continuing to do so. In the eight playoff series, the team that covered Game One has an incredible 11-3 ATS record going forward throughout the series so playing the team off a cover has been very lucrative thus far. Followers know that I am not one of those we are more contrarian than anything and there is a very good chance this evens out before it is all said and done so we will keep riding the bounce angle. Two series can be closed out tonight and we will avoid those as it is hard to gauge how those teams down 3-0 will respond but we will be backing the Blazers which are down 2-0 to Memphis and coming off two horrible games on the road. The Blazers fell to 19-24 on the highway but they head home with a 32-9 record which is the fourth best home record in the NBA and they can get right back in this series. Motivation will be no issue as Portland will try to solve the Memphis dominance over them as they have lost all six meetings this season to the Grizzlies while not even covering one of those., This is as contrarian as it can get and we see the Blazers responding in a big way tonight in front of their home crowd. 10* (752) Portland Trailblazers

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Apr 25, 2015
Atlanta Hawks vs Brooklyn Nets
Total
200½ ov-107 at pinnacle
Lost
$107.0
Play Type: Top Premium

We have seen the first two games of this series go under the total but I expect that to change this afternoon and we are getting value on top of it. While the over was never even in jeopardy during the first two games, we are seeing a shift in the total which we can take advantage of. Game One closed at 205 and Game Two closed at 202.5 and we are seeing a similar shift into Game Three. It is also interesting to note that these two teams played in April during the regular season and those totals were also higher that what we are seeing tonight and those gamers resulted in easy overs, posting 230 and 225 points. Atlanta has a combined offensive and defensive shooting percentage of 90.4 percent while Brooklyn has a combined shooting percentage of 90.6 percent with offense and defense and anytime you can get two teams that are both over 90 percent, as long as the pace is in our favor, we have a great chance to surpass the total. Going back, the over is 4-1 in the Hawks last five road games against teams with a losing home record while the over is 5-1 in the Nets last six home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* Over (745) Atlanta Hawks/(746) Brooklyn Nets

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 25, 2015
Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels
Texas Rangers
+149 at 5Dimes
Lost
$100.0
Play Type: Top Premium

We lost with Texas last night as it blew a 2-0 lead over the Angels and fell by a run but I like the chances of a rebound tonight as the Angels are again overpriced. The Rangers have dropped two straight while Los Angeles has won two in a row and there is not a whole lot separating these teams right now as far as offense and pitching but the name recognition is what is driving this line as well as an overrated C.J. Wilson. His best days are well behind him and he has been unable string together solid performances for a quite a while now. He tossed a quality start at Houston last time out but allowed six runs in 5.2 innings against Kansas City in his lone home start this season. He has had serious trouble facing his old team as it is just as much mental as anything right now as he has a 7.36 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in eight starts against Texas. Colby Lewis goes for Texas and he has been very efficient following a poor season a year ago. He won his opener in Oakland and while the Rangers have dropped his last two starts, he faced off against Dallas Keuchel and Felix Hernandez, currently 2nd and 6th respectively in the American League in ERA. The Angels are 4-11 in their last 15 games against right-handed starters while the Rangers are 10-4 in Lewis' last 14 road starts against teams with a losing record. 10* (975) Texas Rangers

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 25, 2015
St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
+154 at 5Dimes
Lost
$100.0
Play Type: Top Premium

Milwaukee already trails the Cardinals by nine games in the National League Central so it is no surprise that St. Louis is the biggest public consensus on the board for Saturday. Milwaukee could not capitalize from its win on Thursday against the Reds but I like the bounceback opportunity here and wee get to back them at an outstanding home underdog price. The Cardinals are 1-6 in their last seven road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. What we have seen from Wily Peralta over the last two starts is an aberration in my opinion as he was very solid a season ago and opened this year with a quality outing against the Rockies. His last start was hindered by two bad pitches, both resulting in home runs which let to five total runs. Facing the Cardinals may not seem like the place to bounce back but he wasn't awful against them earlier this season and last year, he posted a 2.18 ERA against them in five starts all of which were quality. The Brewers are 5-1 in Peralta's last six starts as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Adam Wainwright is one of the top pitchers in the game and it is obviously reflected in the line here. He has opened with three straight quality outings but this is not his favorite place to pitch as over his career, his four losses are tied for the most at any opposing ballpark. 10* (958) Milwaukee Brewers

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 25, 2015
Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox
+115 at 5Dimes
P
Play Type: Top Premium

The Royals won the opener of this series last night and they now have a game and a half lead over Detroit in the American League Central and their 12-4 record is second best in baseball. They have won five straight in this series including all four meetings this season and the game that was suspended last night will be finished prior to this game starting but with rain in the forecast, it could be dicey. Still, I like the pitching matchup for this one for the White Sox and hopefully we can get this one in. Additionally, the White Sox are 11-3 in their last 14 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. John Danks has gotten off to a slow start but he hasn't been horrible. He allowed four runs in each of his first two starts on the road but bounced back with a quality effort last time out against the Indians at home. He allowed four runs against the Royals in his season debut which snapped a string of nine straight quality outings against Kansas City. He squares off against Edinson Volquez who has been awesome in his first three starts in Kansas City, posting three quality starts in three tries. His last two have been against the Twins however and his worst start came on the road in Minnesota. This will be only the second time these White Sox have seen Volquez but the first time was just two weeks ago which is big. 10* (968) Chicago White Sox

SERVICE BIO

Matt Fargo is becoming recognized as one of the best and most consistent handicappers in the world. He has been handicapping professionally since his college days and his hard work and dedication have paid off considerably. In his 14 years of handicapping, Fargo has had winning seasons 11 times and has not had only one losing season in the past 10 campaigns. He brings with him numerous high ranking finishes in all sports with 23 Top Tens in the past five years alone including four #1's.

Matt has appeared on numerous radio shows over the last few years giving out sought after information, free plays and spot-on analysis that the bettor needs. He is commonly referred to as "Mr. Analysis" as his game day reports are considered to be some of the finest and most thorough available anywhere. If you want reasoning for a play, Matt gives it to you.

Rating Scale

Play Rating will be displayed in each title and range anywhere from 5* to 10* for Premium Plays and 3* for Free Plays.

Enforcer – this is the Signature Play for Matt and is usually backed with a 10* Rating unless otherwise noted.

Supreme Annihilator – this is typically a favorite or a pickem that Matt feels has the opportunity to destroy the line.

Dark Horse Dandy – this is an underdog that is being faded for the wrong reasons and usually has a chance to win a game outright.

Star Attraction – this is a game that can be seen on national television providing great watch and win opportunities.

Total Dominator – while rare, these are the best over/under releases and occur more in football and baseball than any other sports.