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Free Play for 11/7/09
1 Unit on Missouri Tigers -14
Mizzou got back on track last week with a big win over Colorado while Baylor fell by double digits for a 4th straight game. Mizzou is on a 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS against run versus Baylor, including a perfect 3-0 SU & ATS run at home. Baylor gave the Tigers a scare last season at home but I can't see it happening in Columbia this season without Robert Griffin in the lineup to make plays. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Expect Baylor to fall to 0-5 in Big 12 play with a lopsided defeat.
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Under 52.5: Both of these teams have good defenses and UCONN played great last year verse Cincy. UCONN knows they can't outscore the Bearcats so they must run the ball and use up the clock. The Bearcats are going to be motivated as last year this team upset the Cats and they ran the ball right down the field. Today the Cats will be going for revenge and would not be surprised if Cincy holds them under 14. Cincy is a great Under team recently going under 5 of last 6 games. Everything points to the under as the Cats cruise to an easy victory.
Free Play for November 7, 2009
1 Unit on Michigan -6
Bottom Line: Going with one of my healthy systems for our free play today. Plays on a home team (Michigan) off a double digit upset loss as a road favorite of 6 points or more, with a winning record on the season, are 24-4 ATS the last 10 seasons. Purdue has struggled on the road all year (0-3) and I expect Michigan to bounce back here after an ugly loss last week. We'll lay the points for 1 Unit.
Free Play from Doc’s Sports. #108 Take Chicago over Arizona (Sunday 1 pm FOX) The Red Birds have some questionable losses on the season and some impressive wins. Last week they got blown out by Carolina, a team that is likely to make major changes once this season is completed. The Bears got healthy last week against Cleveland winning that game, 30-6. This team needs to keep winning to stay two games behind the Vikings, a team they have yet to play this season. The weather should also play a factor, as the Birds do not like to travel north in November. The Bears need this game and they get it by double digits. They pressure QB Warner for sixty minutes and we collect big in the process as well. Do not forget to sign-up for Doc’s Sports top play winner in college football. We easily nailed our top play last week and will look for our fifth straight top play winner in college football on Saturday.
Northwestern will make their annual pilgrimage to Iowa City to the face the host Iowa Hawkeyes on Saturday afternoon. Iowa is riding high in the national spotlight ranked higher than any time in their history while the Cats are 5-4 SU on the year and hoping to make themselves bowl eligible.
This is a revenge game for Iowa they were upset 22 to 17 as an eight-point favorite last season by this Wildcats team. The Hawkeyes certainly want to defeat the Cats and avenge last seasons’ upset loss but they may get caught looking ahead as they have the biggest game of the year and possibly in the career of HC Ferentz on deck at the “Shoe” versus Ohio State next week.
These are college kids and all the national press the Hawkeyes have been receiving for their Top 5 ranking may have them believing they don’t have to fear this Cats team. It’s hard not to listen when the sports media tells you how great you are and if this leads to complacency in the Hawkeyes players they may well wake up on Sunday with another game to avenge in 2010.
The visitor has 3 straight upsets in this series as Iowa has dropped back-to-back home games to Northwestern as an 8 pt favorite last year and a 20 pt favorite back in 2006. The underdog is 9-2 against the spread and has four straight upset victories. Iowa is 1-5 ATS as double-digit conference favorites, 0-4 ATS in conference home games when coming off a home affair in their last outing and 1-5 ATS in the second of back-to-back conference home games. The Cats are a perfect 6-0 ATS on the road and 3-1 ATS the last four in this series.
Last week versus Indiana the Hawkeyes were down 21 to 7 at the half and got a little home cooking from the zebra’s to help pull out a 42 to 24 win. The zebra’s called back a Hoosier’s touchdown that was certainly a questionable call and Indiana also missed a 28 yard field goal which either of those scores could have possibly helped make a different outcome in last week’s game.
We will back the Cats here as this line is inflated and we believe the Iowa players may have begun to believe their own press and could very well be looking ahead to their matchup with the other “Eyes” next week. Take the double-digits in Iowa City on Saturday.
FREE PLAY
1 Unit on Navy/Notre Dame OVER 55.5
The last time these two teams faced off in South Bend we saw 90 points put up on the scoreboard and each of the last 3 matchups at Notre Dame have sailed over the number. Expect another high scoring affair Saturday as both of these teams are strong offensively and lacking on the defensive side of the ball. Expect the Irish to have a tough time with Navy's strong running attack. In fact, Notre Dame is on a 12-3 Overs run in home games versus good rushing teams averaging 200 or more rushing yards per game. Notre Dame is also 8-1 Over in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons. If Navy struggled to stop Temple last week, the Irish shouldn't have any trouble scoring the football here. We'll take the Over for 1 Unit Saturday.
In this contest, my money is on the Utah State Aggies.
Quick trivia question for you. Which college football team has been one of the hottest
in the country over the last 1 1/2 seasons?? Would you believe Utah State? This football team is
on an incredible 10-1-1 mark over their last 12 football games. They
have a great quarterback running the show and Mr. Borel scares the hell
out of everybody because he can do it all. Not only has he tossed 11
TD's compared to a mere 1 INT this season, he can also kill you with his
legs, as he did against Fresno, amassing 105 yards along the ground.
Hawaii has nothing left in the tank and it almost seems like they are
down to the ball boy when it pertains to the quarterback position.
I know the Aggie won/loss record doesn't warrant them being a favorite,
especially on a distracting trip to the Islands. Despite this, I think
the right team is favored and I like them here.
STEVE ZUKIEL TAKES THE UTAH STATE AGGIES OVER THE HAWAII WARRIORS
AS AN EZ FREE WINNER
Wow, The Jags favored by almost TD against anyone is quite a shock. The Jacksonville defense made Vince Young form 0-6 Tennessee last week look like a legit NFL starter at QB! The Jags have a system to where they play to the level of the team they are playing and then get beat. Not the Jack Del Rio coached Jags of previous years editions. Kansas City is no juggernaut on offense but the suspension of Larry Johnson who has managed under 3 yards a carry this season, actually is a good thing in my opinion, because Jamal Charles is better at things head coach Todd Haley wants to do on offense. He has speed and an ability to break tackles and catch out of the backfield. He also is not at odds with his teammates either, which is a huge plus for the Chiefs who are in desperate need of a win.
Kansas City is off a bye week, and healthy. Matt Cassel at QB has had little time to impress this year throwing the ball, because he has no OL to block for him. With a weak Jags front 5, and an even weaker pass rush (last in the NFL), look for KC to be able to move the chains on offense and balance their attack. Kansas City’s only win this year was on the road against Washington with the same line as this one, and they managed that win without a TD. Look for KC to score points here and trade punches on offense and keep this one within 3 points.
Jacksonville 23 KC 20 (an outright win by KC would not shock me)
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1* Take the Indianapolis Colts ATS, The Colts are the superior team here Sunday and I look for them to dominate this game from start to finish after getting a scare last week from the 49ers. The Texans are just 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team that has a winning record at home and they are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after a win by more than 14 points. The Texans are also just 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game and the Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after failing to cover the spread in their previous game. The Colts have outscored their opponents by an average of 20.6 ppg over their last 3 games and I look for a strong performance from them Sunday after a let down against the 49ers last week. Take the Indianapolis Colts ATS as my NFL Free Pick for Sunday.
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It's a traditional match up as the Notre Dame Fighting Irish host the Navy Midshipmen in South Bend.
Notre Dame returns home after a a neutral site game against and over matched Washington State team in San Antonio and they are still on track to be eligible for a BCS Bowl game and QB Jimmy Clausen is looking like a Heisman Trophy candidate. Much of the talk before the season was about how soft ND's schedule appeared, it isn't actually so soft down the stretch to think that any of the games are a given. Notre Dame has been in a lot of close contests and though it helps to build a team's confidence that they are never out of it, it also gives underdogs a sense of belief that the Irish are very beatable. Clausen seems to always find the ever reliable Golden Tate who has some of the best hands in the nation, and he finds him when it matters most. Defensively the Irish really struggle at times especially against the pass. Overall Notre Dame is 103rd in yards allowed, something they will need to improve on if they hope to sweep these last four games of the regular season.
Navy had been on a roll headed into last weeks game against an improving Temple team but didn't have enough to beat the Owls in an upset loss. It was Navy's absolute inability to pass that was their undoing and the defense surrendering just three too many points in the loss. We often hear mostly about Navy's option offense but it's really been the defense who has lead the Middies this year. Navy is 14th in the country in yards allowed and 20th against the pass. They will need all of it on both sides of the ball to hang with the powerful Notre Dame offense.
Notre Dame is 1-4 against the spread in their last five home games and 1-6 against the spread in theor last seven overall. Navy is 5-2 against the spread following their last seven non-covers. The road team has covered 13 of the last 14 in this series and Navy has covered seven straight at South Bend.
This just looks like a case of way too many points in a game that could be fairly even when all is said and done. This might even be worth a small play on the money line.
Wisconsin (6-2) returned from their Bye week last Saturday with a solid 37-0 win over Purdue. Wisconsin's 2 losses this season came at the hands of Ohio State and Iowa, who are both ranked in the Top 25 and combined for a current 16-2 record this year! Against the weaker Big 10 opponents, Wisconsin is a perect 3-0 SU & ATS and won those games by a score of 106-58 (victories over Michigan State, Purdue & Minnesota). We'll see more of the same this Saturday at Indiana, as the Hoosiers are 1-5 SU against Big 10 foes this season. Lay the points with this road Favorite as Indiana's defense is allowing 28.2 points per game and lost their last 2 games even with the aid of 9 Turnovers the past 2 weeks!
Florida St. won a second straight game this past weekend, both of which have come by only three points. It was a shootout against the Wolfpack and the Seminoles survived to even their record at 4-4 on the year. A lot of people were down on Florida St. after the 2-4 start but after the huge come-from-behind victory over the Tar Heels, this team is playing with some excellent momentum and we get some great line value here. These two met at about the same time a season ago with Florida St. favored by 3.5 points and now it is a 12-point line shift to this season which is an extremely big move from one season to the next. The Seminoles came into that game last season 6-2 while Clemson was 4-4 so if anything, the only shift we should see if a reversal due to the home field. Instead, we are getting an additional five points based on nothing. Clemson won its third straight game on Saturday over Coastal Carolina to move to 5-3 on the season. The offense has come to life over those three games as it has averaged 42.3 ppg after scoring more than 30 points only once in its first five games. The points have come but the offense is still pretty inconsistent as the Tigers have been outgained in half of their games on the season. The defense has been tough as nails as the Tigers are 12th in the nation in total defense but that is skewed quite a bit. Clemson allowed 170 yards against Costal Carolina last week and three games into the season, allowed 54 total yards to Boston College in a horrible weather environment. It has faced two other teams that are ranked in the top 20 in total offense, Georgia Tech and TCU, and the defense allowed 418 and 388 total yards respectively so while the overall numbers may look solid, it struggles against the top offenses in the land. The Seminoles are 15th in the country and first in the ACC in total offense as they are averaging 443.6 ypg and that is due to the strength of the passing game. Quarterback Christian Ponder is having a solid season, as he is 13th in the country in passing efficiency and third in total offense. He has been fabulous, throwing for 2,403 yards and 13 scores and while his numbers were nothing special on Saturday with 277 yards and one touchdown, his leadership, the ability to make key plays, and playing with a great deal of pain trumps everything else. The amazing thing is that despite the spectacular season, he did not make the Doak Walker cut list which is a list of 15 quarterbacks. Further complicating matters against the Seminoles and their high-powered passing attack is the fact the Tigers will be without perhaps their top pass rusher in sophomore defensive end Da’Quan Bowers. Right now, Florida St. is looking at a 6-6 season based on the schedule as it will also be an underdog on the road at Florida while being favored against Maryland and Wake Forest. That means there can be no mistakes and a win here will take a lot of pressure off. Florida St. has lost one game by 10 points this season while the other three losses have come by four, seven and five points so it realistically is a few points away from being in much better shape with a much better record. That makes this line even more intriguing as to why it is so high. Coming off that shootout for the Seminoles looks to help matters as they are 7-0 ATS after a home game where both teams scored 31 or more points. Also, they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog between 3.5 and 10 points and this is the first time in the last 19 meetings that Florida St. has actually been an underdog in this series. 3* Florida St. Seminoles
Matt has isolated a great situational matchup and he is expecting nothing short of a BLOWOUT! Fargo is coming off a tough week in CFB where turnovers and injuries dictated the outcome but a new week brings new hope and Matt is ready for an EXCEPTIONAL run! This MASSACRE is backed by a POWERFUL 24-4 ATS (85.7%) Power Situation! This goes early so do not sleep in!
Ryan nailed his top rated 15* SEC Game of the Year last Saturday and now is vast research has uncovered another of these gems for you to unload on in big way. This is reinforced by a proven money making system and game dependent angles sporting an 18-2 ATS mark for 90% winners.
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Wyoming as they face BYU set to start at 2:00 EST. AiS shows a 70% probability that Wyoming will lose this game by 13 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 64-24 ATS for 73% winners since 1999. Play on home dogs of 10.5 to 21 points in conference games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. AiS shows an 85% probability that Wyoming will gain between 150 and 200 net passing yards; 83% probability that they will rush for 3 to 3.5 rushing yards per attempt; 86% probability that BYU will rush for 100 to 150 yards. Note that BYU is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when their defense allows 150 to 200 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons; 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when they allow 3 to 3.5 rushing yards per attempt over the last 3 seasons; 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when they rush for 100 to 150 yards over the last 2 seasons. BYU is also 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) vs. mistake prone teams getting nailed for 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 2 seasons. Take Wyoming.
Off of that near-miss vs. Alabama and the wire-to-wire win over South Carolina, the public can not help but get caught up in the new enthusiasm surrounding Lane Kiffin and a resurgent Tennessee program. But that means inflating the line at the wrong time here, and for the wrong reasons. First note that until a late turnover they were going to lose 12-3 at Alabama, with the offense struggling mightily, and that all three of those first half TD’s vs. South Carolina came after turnovers in Gamecock territory. There is not enough polish in the passing game to cover this pointspread category, even if they did bring the proper focus. But off of those showdowns, and with a major trip to Ole Miss on deck, it is hard for this opponent to generate any excitement for them. It is a much different story for the Tigers, who bring 39 in-state players on the roster, most of whom have been ignored by recruiters from Knoxville. They have a chance to make something out of a disappointing season by going hard here. TAKE MEMPHIS PLUS HERE.
On Saturday the System club play is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. Game 392 at 10:00 eastern. Hawaii is not as good as in past years,however they should be able to get this one today at home. Utah.St falls in to a negative system of mine that plays against certain road favorites off a road dog loss and cover if they are taking on an opponent off a road dog loss and cover.This system is 3-16 ats for road favorites like Utah.St since 1980. Both teams suffered tough road losses last week. This week Hawaii is a 2 point dog to a Utah.St team that has lost all 4 times on the road this year and the last 10 road games going back to 2007. They are just 1-6 against the spread as road favorites of less than 5 points. Hawaii has revenge for a loss last year in Utah where they actually had more yards 374-368. Look for a nice home win here tonight by the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. On Saturday I have the 7 unit 2009 College football GAME OF THE YEAR. This big play is backed with 4 systems. One of which has cashed 24 of 25 times going back to 1980. I have cashed all three 7 unit plays released this year.The last one in bases back in July. This game leads a solid overall card that will have 4-5 solid system plays + NBA on the later report. The game goes in late afternoon action. For the System Club play take Hawaii plus the points. RV
Mack Attack Free Play for Saturday, November 7, 2009
Take Ohio State and Penn State under 41: Huge game for both teams that are waiting to see if Iowa stubs it's toe. Two Stone Wall defenses with OSU 6th at just 260 ypg while the Nittany Lions check in at 5th at an even more stingy 254 yard per. Both teams nearly mirror images statiscally with the Bucks allowing just 86.4 ypg on the ground while PSU allows just 84.1 ypg overland. Neither QB has produced in this type big game spot, Pryor and Clark both go invisible when facing same kind. In game that may come down to the kicking game, Buckeyes are without Sr K Aaron Pettry (13-19, 28-29, blown out knee) and will go with first-time starter. First to 17 wins, play the Under.
Look for plenty of offensive fireworks Sunday between the Bears and Cardinals at Soldier Field to get this OVER. Arizona has been at their best offensively on the road this year, while the Bears have been scoring at will at home. The Cardinals average 27.3 points/game on the road, while Chicago puts up 31.7 points/game at home. Neither team has been all that great defensively this year as both squads give up over 20 points/game. The Bears are 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The OVER is 10-2 in Cardinals last 12 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0. The OVER is 12-3-1 in Cardinals last 16 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0. The OVER is 40-15 in Cardinals last 55 games as an underdog. Arizona is 39-18 OVER in their last 57 road games. You can see a trend developing here that when the Cardinals are a road dog, chances are it's going to result in a high-scoring affair. The OVER is 11-1 in the Bears' last 12 games overall when installed a favorite of 0.5-3.0 points. The OVER is 18-6 in Bears last 24 games as a home favorite. We see no way this one stays under the number by game's end. Take the OVER 44 points here.
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Wyoming simply doesn't have the offense to keep up with BYU Saturday. The Cowboys are averaging just 18.2 points/game and 313 total yards/game this season. Compare that to BYU who is putting up 34.6 points/game and 448 total yards/game, and you can see what we are talking about. Better yet, BYU is 4-0 on the road this season while scoring 41.2 points/game and allowing 16.2 points/contest. That means the Cougars are outscoring opponents by 25.0 points/game on the road. They have put up an average of 502 yards/game on the road while allowing just 276 yards/game. Wyoming gives up 25.7 points/game at home and 410 total yards/game. This thing should be over by the end of the 3rd quarter as BYU just rolls. They have had a bye week to steam over their loss to TCU back on October 24th, which will have Cougars' players hungry to hit the field and make amends having not played in 2 weeks. BYU is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Wyoming, winning each game by double-digits. Take BYU and lay the points.
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Wednesday, November 04, 2009, Miami Heat vs. Washington Wizards (NBA) - 7:05 PM EST..Nba Top Play 1500* bomb..AS ALWAYS GUARANTEED... NBA Top Plays (+580) 8-2 L10 80%..kaboooooooooom
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