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Bryan Leonard Sports Picks

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<B>Now cashing 67% of our baseball Over/Under selections this season. </B>Join us on Wednesday if you enjoy offense as we have what we expect to be AN OLD FASHIONED OFFENSIVE EXPLOSION on the diamonds

Bryan Leonard's Afternoon MLB Grand Slam

Let's get the party started early on Wednesday with an AFTERNOON BEST BET on the Diamonds. This game features two starters heading in opposite directions. <B>The key to beating baseball is looking past the surface and mining gold</B>, we have done just that in this afternoon affair. 

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Bryan Leonard's NBA Total Domination

Wednesday we return to the hard courts with OUR STRONGEST NBA TOTAL thus far in the first round. This game features two key components that will return us to the winners circle. Join us on Wednesday for our TOP NBA SELECTION. 

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Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 22, 2014
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
7½ un-105
Play Type: Premium
923 NY Yankees at Boston
Great pitching will be on display Tuesday night at Fenway Park when Masahiro Tanaka makes his debut against the Red Sox and Jon Lester makes his 28th career start against the Pinstripes. 
Masahiro Tanaka has definitely come as advertised for the Yankees. Through three starts, he has 28 strikeouts against just two walks. His elite control was one of the major selling points and he has carried that over to the big leagues. He's also missing barrels and inducing a lot of ground balls with his splitter. Four of the five earned runs off of Tanaka have come on home runs, so teams aren't exactly stringing hits together to create innings. The usually powerful Red Sox have hit just 17 home runs so far and with Tanaka's elite command and control, it's unlikely that number will go up very much.
Most importantly for the Yankees, Tanaka works deep into games to keep their mediocre bullpen out of the game. That will be a factor in this one because the Red Sox work counts, but they have yet to see Tanaka and that plays to his advantage because of his ability to spot pitches.
Jon Lester has been excellent so far this season in four starts with a 2.17 ERA and a 2.35 FIP. He's striking out over 25 percent of opposing batters with a low walk rate of 3.5 percent. By PITCHf/x data, one of the biggest changes for Lester so far has been increased use of the cutter, which is an easy pitch for him to command and has good run away from lefties and jams righties. Missing barrels is critical in Fenway Park and Lester has been good at that so far.
The Fenway Park factor and the reputation of these two teams has led to a total that is higher than it should be. In almost any other park in baseball, this total would be a 6.5, possibly a 7 with the under juiced. But we get value here, even though these two offenses aren't performing at nearly the level that they used to. We'll gladly take the extra value because of historical bias and look for a game with few baserunners and a lot of great starting pitching.
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 22, 2014
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles
Play Type: Premium

919 Baltimore at Toronto

After navigating through a very difficult scheduling spot, the Baltimore Orioles enjoyed what was essentially a day off following their 11:05 a.m. ET first pitch against the Boston Red Sox. On Tuesday night, they open up a three-game set with the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre. Miguel Gonzalez will take the hill for the Orioles and R.A. Dickey will be the opposition's starter.
After getting torched in his first start against the Tigers, Gonzalez has allowed three runs over his last 11 innings and has started to miss bats with nine strikeouts in that span. Gonzalez was sick and pitching with a heavy heart in honor of his late friend, Angels pitcher Nick Adenhart, in that first start. Not only is it understandable to get hit against the Tigers, but he was also not feeling well. He missed barrels against the Rays with a 9.1 percent line drive rate in his last outing and went back to using the four-pitch mix that he needs to be effective.
Gonzalez has fared well against the Blue Jays over eight appearances, seven starts, with a 3.00 ERA and a 3/1 K/BB ratio. He's the type of pitcher that can have success against the Jays because it's an aggressive lineup that seeks out fastballs and Gonzalez is a savvy guy that has learned to get by with using his fastball to set up other pitches and change eye levels. That should lead to a lot of weak contact. Over 83 plate appearances, current Blue Jays are batting .130/.181/.273/.453 against Gonzalez.
While we do like Gonzalez against the Jays lineup, this may be a play on the number more than anything else. There's no reason to install R.A. Dickey as a favorite in the -135 to -140 range. Out of four starts, Dickey has allowed five or more runs in three of them and has allowed five over each of his last two starts. Dickey has an 18/15 K/BB ratio over 23 innings and that has led to a 1.65 WHIP. That's especially dangerous against the Orioles, a team with power in the lineup top to bottom, so three-run homers are a definite possibility.
Not only has Dickey had trouble commanding the knuckleball, but opposing hitters are batting .323 off of it with a .508 SLG. The old adage about knuckleballs is "If it's high, let it fly. If it's low, let it go." A lot of knuckleballs are staying up from Dickey and those are easy pitches for hitters to handle. That's evident by a 20 percent chase rate on the knuckler, the lowest of Dickey's career.
There's no reason for Dickey to be this big of a favorite and Gonzalez has fared well against the Jays in his career. As more of a fly ball guy, the turf shouldn't impact his fielders too much and we have no reason to believe that Gonzalez should suffer from a lack of run support.
Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Apr 22, 2014
Washington Wizards vs. Chicago Bulls
Chicago Bulls
Play Type: Premium

726 Washington at Chicago

Looking to back the Bulls here in what is a very important home game after dropping the opener in the series. Washington rallied late to dominate Chicago in the fourth quarter, but we will trust one of the better coaches in the league to make the needed adjustments. Chicago has far more playoff experience and we like the defensive minded team off a loss.

Basketball Picks (+2150)  351-306  L657 53%

Top NBA Picks (+1929)  84-60  L144 58%

NCAA-B Picks (+1858)  186-155  L341 55%

Football Picks (+1729)  57-36  L93 61%

All Sports Picks (+1388)  839-782  L1621 52%

NFL Sides (+1319)  114-91  L205 56%

NCAA-F Picks (+1278)  131-109  L240 55%

MLB Totals (+337)  52-45  L97 54%


Owner of Bryan Leonard Sports for the last 31 years. Multiple award winning documented service in all sports. Participant in the Stardust Invitational, finalist in both the Leroy's Money Talks contest and the Sunset Station Invitational here in Las Vegas. Featured speaker the past two seasons in the LasVegas Football Handicapping Seminar.