– Last Updated on November 21, 2022 2:52 pm
NFL Wild Card Playoff Odds + Predictions
Looking for NFL Wild Card Playoff Odds and free NFL picks? Wild card weekend is on the horizon – the second season of NFL Football promises some intrigue and the exact opposite of intrigue in the Raiders/Texans game. It isn’t the Best of the NFC and AFC that will be going at it this weekend but it is the best of the rest that hope to knock off the top dogs in just over a week’s time.
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Vegas has established the odds for each game already which means it is incumbent upon us to analyze the crap out of each and every game.
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Without further adieu here is a look at every game on the schedule, the early Wild Card Playoff lines associated with the contests and what should play out on what is sure to be another scintillating week of NFL action.
(5) Raiders (12-4) at (4) Texans (9-7), 4:30 p.m. ET, (ABC/ESPN)
Opening line: Texans, -2.5 points
The Raiders don’t know yet whether or not it will be Matt McGloin or Connor Cook that will start at QB – either way you have to be scared if you are a Raiders fan – I mean c’mon – it doesn’t seem fair. Either one of those guys will be tasked with facing the league’s #1 defense on Saturday. The only good news for Oakland is the fact that they will take on either Tom Savage or Brock Osweiler! Connor Cook versus Tom Savage doesn’t exactly scream – “Classic”!
I am going to take the team that has experienced the smallest drop-off between the starter and backup QB – that distinction belongs to the home team here. Although Oakland went 10-6 ATS this year (mostly with Derek Carr), the team hasn’t won a road playoff game since 1980 while Houston is 2-1 in recent home playoff dates.
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This has all the makings of an ugly low-scoring game. In that case I will take the better defense and the better running game – Houston’s defense and Lamar Miller will be the difference. Take the home team by a boring 16-13 score here.
(6) Lions (9-7) at (3) Seahawks (10-5-1), 8:15 p.m. ET (NBC)
Opening line: Seahawks, -7.5 points
Wanna few stats that totally about Detroit’s chances in this game? They are 0-8 in Wild Card games, 0-10 in their last 10 road playoff games, 0-3 in outdoor games this year and 0-2 in prime time games in 2016 – ugh! And now they have to fly across country and face the toughest building in the game today – on a short week. Seattle is 9-0 in their last nine home playoff dates.
The Lions did a great job of beating the teams that they were supposed to this past season – the issue is that they went 0-5 against teams that made the playoffs. Both teams were an OK 8-8 ATS this past season – the Hawks despite being 7-1 SU were 5-3 ATS at home.
There is just too much going against Detroit in this one – although Seattle isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders, their motivation, their experience in the postseason and their home crowd is enough to make me think this game isn’t close. I’m taking Seattle by 10 in this game.
(6) Dolphins (10-6) at (3) Steelers (11-5), 1:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
Opening line: Steelers, -7.5 points
For the second straight year the Pittsburgh Steelers will face a backup quarterback in the first round of the playoffs – this time it will be against a surprisingly effective Matt Moore. This is a rematch of a Week 6 game that saw the Fins win 30-15 in Miami – co-incidentally it was their only win against a team that won at least eight games this year.
The Dolphins enter the playoffs for the first time in nine years – they haven’t won a road playoff game in 17 years! That said Miami was a .500 team on the road this year and they did go 5-3 ATS in those games. On the other hand the Steelers are 4-1 SU in their last five home playoff games and are 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15 playoff games overall.
Pittsburgh is a different team at home – I don’t expect the Miami defense to be as effective in the Steelers’ back yard. There is no way that Big Ben, Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell are held down like they were in Week 6. I expect the Steelers to score and score a ton on this game and for the Dolphins to struggle to keep up. Matt Moore has been decent for sure but he is likely in over his head in this one.
I like Pittsburgh to prevail going away here. Le’Veon Bell takes over in the fourth quarter and the Steelers prevail by 10 – 27-17.
(5) Giants (11-5) at (4) Packers (10-6), 4:40 p.m. ET (Fox)
Opening line: Packers, -7.5 points
This is the classic matchup between offense and defense – it just depends on which one you like best. The line here has fluctuated – some have the spread at 7.5 and I have seen it as low as 4.5. The game will be played at what will certainly be a frosty Lambeau field.
The Giants have been remarkable on the road in the playoffs as of late – they are not only 5-0 SU, they are 5-0 ATS in their last five postseason games. The G-Men are 7-1 in their last eight postseason games overall and 7-1 ATS over that span – when they do make the playoffs, they usually make some noise.
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The Packers on the other hand are just 7-6 SU in their last 13 playoff games – 8-4-1 ATS over that span. The problem this year? They have absolutely nobody to play in the secondary against Odell Beckham and arguably the best receiving corp. in the NFL. Quinten Rollins, Damarious Randall and Makinton Dorleant were the latest additions to Green Bay’s injury report – no wonder the team is 31st in the league against the pass!
The combination of New York’s incredible defense and Green Bay’s sieve of a stop-unit makes me lean the Giants’ way in this one. The fact is that New York is the worst possible matchup for Aaron Rodgers and the banged up secondary. Sure Rodgers is capable of a herculean performance but he alone will have to be the difference.
I’m taking New York in an upset here – that defense is just too good to ignore and Green Bay’s secondary will be starting more than its share of practice squad guys.
NFL Wild Card Playoff Handicapping
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